Alex Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's coming our way for the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you: the forecast ain't looking great for Alex. It’s a reef setup that’s exposed to a south swell, but the winds are gonna be our biggest enemy for most of this run. We're looking at a whole lot of onshore and cross-onshore breezes, which is going to chop things up and make for pretty ordinary sessions. The water temp is sitting right around 79°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you’re getting knocked around.

Let's break it down day by day.

This Saturday afternoon, the 11th, we've got a 4ft south-easterly swell with a 13-second period. The energy is moderate at 449, but that east wind at 12 mph is blowing right across the face, creating a cross-chop. It's going to be poor.

Sunday morning the 12th is a little glimmer of hope. The swell drops to 3ft from the southeast, period 12 seconds, and we get a light northerly breeze making it clean. The energy is still moderate at 311, and the score is a 2 out of 10, which is the best we’ll see all week. If you can get out then, do it. The afternoon goes back to that poor 12 mph easterly cross-wind.

Monday the 13th morning sees the swell drop to 3ft from the southeast, 11-second period, with an offshore northerly wind at 9 mph. It's surfable, but with only 147 in wave energy, it’s weak. Monday afternoon the wind swings cross-onshore and it’s game over.

From Tuesday the 14th all the way through to the end of the first week, it’s pretty grim. Swell hangs around 2ft to 4ft, but the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore. We get a big pulse of onshore wind on Wednesday the 15th, with 7ft of short-period, wind-affected swell (7 seconds) and 25 mph southerly winds. That’s a hard pass. The energy jumps to 554, but the conditions are poor.

The end of this first week and into the second week gets a bit more interesting swell-wise, but the wind stays rubbish. Thursday the 16th has a 4ft to 4ft south-southeast swell with a 12-second period and energy hitting 597 to 874. The wind is still onshore though.

Then on Friday the 17th, we see the biggest swell of the whole forecast. A 7ft to 7ft south-southeast groundswell with a 13-second period rolls in. The wave energy is strong, reading 1419 to 1551. But once again, we’ve got a strong 12 to 16 mph cross-onshore wind. For a reef break like Alex, that’s going to make it messy and pretty much unsurfable for most. This is definitely expert-only territory due to the size, and even then, the wind will make it a battle.

The second week from the 18th onward is more of the same story. Swell sizes range from 3ft to 4ft, with periods dropping to the 7 to 8-second range—wind swell stuff. The energy is moderate, but the wind is almost always cross-onshore. The best we get is a light cross-onshore breeze on Sunday the 19th and a gentle one on the 26th, but the swell direction is still not ideal.

Look, to be honest, this is a blank run for Alex. Don't waste your time paddling out into that onshore chop. The only window worth considering is early Sunday morning the 12th, and maybe a dawny on Monday the 13th. Other than that, with the strong onshore winds and hefty swell on the 17th, this setup might actually look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s not looking good.

Stay tuned, things might improve.

Rusty.

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