Alex Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you—this outlook for Alex is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, frustrating run of mostly ordinary conditions, with only a couple of brief windows that might get you out of the water feeling half-decent. The first real chance to paddle out doesn’t come until Saturday the 12th of September, and even then, it’s not exactly firing.

Let’s break it down. Starting now, through to the end of the first week, it’s grim. We’ve got small, weak swell—around 3ft to 4ft from the ESE, with periods mostly under 9 seconds, so the energy is low (between 110 and 254 on the combined energy scale). The winds are a killer: nearly constant cross-on or cross-shore breezes, building through the afternoons into moderate or fresh winds that chop everything up. You’ll see the odd morning with light cross-off winds from the NNE or N, like on the 5th and 6th of September, but the swell is tiny (about 3ft) and the scores are just ‘surfable but ordinary.’ Not worth rushing for.

From the 7th to the 11th, it gets worse. Swell stays small, winds are a mess, and the water temperature at Alex is sitting at 79°F with a positive anomaly of 2°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year—nothing unusual there. But the surf quality? Poor. Day after day of moderate cross-onshore and choppy conditions. There’s a marginal window on the morning of Friday the 11th, with a 4ft ESE swell and a 9-second period, but it’s still cross-shore and only borderline.

The one standout, and I mean the only one, comes on Saturday the 12th of September. Morning session is your best bet. We’ve got a clean, 3ft ESE swell with a 9-second period, and a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind from the NE. The combined energy is moderate at 243, and the conditions are described as ‘good surf.’ It’s small, but it’ll be clean, and for Alex, a reef break that’s fairly consistent but only intermediate-friendly, that’s about as good as it gets. The swell direction from the ESE isn’t bang on the optimum S direction, but with the offshore wind, it’ll still offer some fun little waves. Watch out for crowds—they’re ‘sometimes’ around, so you might have company.

After that, it’s back to the grind. Sunday the 13th has a similar morning with light offshore winds and 3ft ESE swell, but the score drops to just ‘surfable.’ From the 14th onward, the swell tries to pick up a bit, with a 4ft E swell on Monday afternoon and even a long-period 17-second SSE swell on the 15th of September, but the winds are consistently cross-on and moderate to fresh, ruining any chance of quality. That long-period swell (over 15 seconds) at a reef break like Alex could have been interesting, but with onshore wind and only 2ft of height, it’s just a messy, weak dribble. The combined energy spikes to 414 on the 15th morning, but that’s all background—no good for paddle surfing.

Honestly, if you’re not set on Alex, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially those afternoons with fresh cross-on winds and moderate energy. For the rest of us, wait for Saturday the 12th, dawn patrol, and make the most of that clean little window. After that, it’s a blank run through to the end of the 16-day period. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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