Alex Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted, folks. We’re looking at a pretty bleak stretch ahead. The models have got nothing good lined up for us for the next couple of weeks, and I’m not going to sugarcoat it. It’s one of those times where the ocean just switches off.

We’ve got a long run of poor surf, kicking off Tuesday the 18th and not really letting up. For the first week, we’re stuck with short-period windswell out of the east-southeast, all under 6.5 ft. It’s top to bottom slop. Tuesday, we’ve got a solid 6.6 ft of SE swell, but the wind is howling onshore at 19 mph, and the energy is just messy (512). It’s a washing machine out there, with zero shape. That’s not surf; that’s a workout. The whole week is a write-off for any quality waves. There are a couple of glimmers – early Friday morning the 21st, we get a slight cross-offshore breeze with the swell dropping to 3.9 ft, but it’s so weak (177) and short-period that it’s barely breaking. Saturday morning the 22nd, the wind goes offshore and it’s clean, but the swell has dropped to a piddly 3 ft at 7 seconds (82). It’s ankle-biters at best. We’re talking about a full week with nothing to get you out of bed.

Then it just gets worse. The swell nearly dies completely. From the 23rd to the 29th, the model is showing almost nothing – waves under 2.6 ft, with a few days dipping to 1.3 ft. The energy is weak to the core, down in the double digits. There’s a couple of pulses of long-period swell out of the SSE around the 26th, but they’re tiny – 1.6 ft to 2 ft – and the wind is cross-shore or onshore, so it’s just not going to have any push or shape. It’s a lake out there. We’re talking about a solid 10-day gap with no recommendations. That’s a brutal stretch.

There’s a flicker of life right at the end of the first week of September, on Tuesday the 1st. The swell bumps back up to 4.3 ft out of the east, but it’s still short-period at 8 seconds and the wind is onshore again. It’s a gloomy start to September.

So, what do we do with this? Honestly, for the first 12 days, don’t even bother checking the cams. It’s that kind of setup. The one and only spot that’s even on the radar is Alex (reef break). It’s fairly consistent, but even it can’t do much with this junk. It’s exposed to any swell, and it’s an intermediate reef, so it handles shape better than a beach, but it’s not a magic wand. When the swell is this small and the period is this low, there’s just no energy. You’d be better off going for a paddle or a swim.

This kind of blank run is more normal for the area when we get stuck in this pattern. There is one promising sign: the water temperature is about average for this time of year, so at least it’s not freezing while we wait.

If the wind stays up and the swell stays weak, this setup is going to be more interesting for the kite surfers than for us. It’s dead air and flat water, not surf. Keep the boards in the car and the hopes low, because it’s going to be a while.

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