Alex Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what Alex has in store over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – for a solid stretch here, it’s looking pretty average. There’s a real quiet period at the start, with the first few days offering very little to get excited about. We’ve got a bit of energy around, but the conditions just aren't playing ball. The combined energy is sitting around the 300 mark (323 to 271), so there’s some push in the water, but with onshore winds and a short period, it’s mostly a messy, poor quality affair. Don’t bother paddling out for those first few mornings and afternoons.

Things do start to perk up a little as we move into the middle of next week. By Wednesday morning the 8th, we see a shift. The wind swings offshore from the NNW, light at 6 mph, and the water looks clean. Swell is small though, only 2 ft, but it’s coming from the SSE with a 12-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, giving the waves some shape despite the lack of size. Combined energy is 131, so it’s not powerful, but it’s clean and surfable.

There’s another little window on Saturday morning the 11th. Offshore NNW wind again, 9 mph, with clean conditions. Swell is tiny at 2 ft, but it’s got an 11-second period from the SE. The energy reading is 229, which is moderate, but again, it’s a small wave day. Not a standout, just a chance to get wet if you’re keen.

Now, the real standout – and I mean the *only* one worth circling on the calendar – is Sunday morning the 19th. That’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on the models, but this is the one that has potential. We’re looking at a proper pulse of swell: 7 ft from the SSE, with an 8-second period. That’s not super long-period energy, but the combined energy jumps right up to 674 – that’s strong, no question. The wind is light cross-onshore from the SE at 6 mph, so it won't be glassy, but it’s not howling either. That size (over 5 ft) means it’s getting a bit punchy for beginners, but for anyone with a bit of experience, this is the pick of the forecast. Just be aware, with that shorter period, it might not have the same grunt as a longer-period groundswell, but there’ll be plenty of waves to go around.

As for the breaks, we’re only looking at Alex – a reef break that’s exposed to the S. Because it’s a reef, those longer-period swells we get earlier on (like the 12-second stuff) will actually wrap in nicely. The optimum swell direction is from the S, and the main pulses we see are from SSE and SE, so it’s a decent match. Crowds can be a thing here sometimes, so if you’re heading out on that Sunday morning, expect some company.

Water temperature is sitting at 80° with a +0.7° anomaly, so it’s pretty much bang on average for this time of year – wetsuit optional, I’d say.

So, bottom line: mostly a write-off for the first week and a half, with a couple of small clean windows. The big one to aim for is Sunday morning the 19th at Alex – that’s where the size and energy come together. It’s a long way off, so don’t book a flight just yet, but it’s got my attention.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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