Aja Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's on the menu for Aja over the next couple of weeks.

To be honest, it's a bit of a tough stretch ahead. The entire 16-day window is looking pretty flat, with nothing really worth paddling out for. The model shows a long string of days with minimal energy and poor surf conditions, so we're looking at a real dry spell. The first solid hint of any real energy doesn't show up until the very end of the period, around July 30th, and even then it's not a sure thing.

The only consistent note is that the water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 81°F, which is about 3°F cooler than usual. You'll want a spring suit if you're stubborn enough to get in.

For the first three weeks, forget it. From July 19th right through to July 29th, the swell is tiny, often under 2 ft, with periods under 10 seconds. The combined energy is weak, barely cracking 40 (42) on the best of those days. Winds are a mix of light cross-shore and glassy, which would normally be a dream, but there's just nothing to ride. The wave comment says it all: "poor surf conditions."

Then, around July 30th, things start to look a little more interesting. We get a pulse of easterly swell pushing up to 3 ft, with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 190 (moderate). That's the biggest number we've seen. But the wind is a problem. It's coming from the west at 16 mph, blowing cross-onshore, which will make it choppy. The break is a reef, so it might hold some shape, but that wind is going to mess it up.

That trend continues into the first few days of August. The swell drops off a bit, but the wind stays strong, hitting 34 mph on August 2nd with a near gale cross-onshore, and then absolutely nuking on August 3rd with storm-force winds from the south at 59 mph. That last day does have a cross-offshore wind, which is clean, and a very long period groundswell of 18 seconds from the east with a combined energy of 324 (strong). Problem is, that's a massive, long-period swell at a reef break. It could be a beautiful, powerful wave, but it could also be a washing machine. For experts only, and even then, a long shot.

Bottom line: There are no standout sessions here. The best bet, if you're desperate, is the morning of July 30th for the biggest swell, but expect it to be choppy. Or, if you're a total charger and the storm-force winds line up, August 3rd could be a wild, clean, and powerful beast, but it's a long-range gamble and far from a sure thing. For everyone else, keep the board in the car and maybe find a kite if you're into that kind of thing, because the wind on that August 2nd and 3rd is going to be insane.

Rusty.

Read more