Aja Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days for Aja. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and honestly, we’ve got a long stretch of waiting before anything really gets going. The water’s sitting at a warm 84° which is pretty much average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The pattern starts off real quiet. We’ve got a few days of tiny, weak surf, and pretty poor conditions to go with it. From Saturday the 22nd through to the end of the week, it’s mostly small dribbles with a lot of wind and stormy weather to deal with. The wind is howling out of the SSE at 19 mph on Saturday afternoon, and then it swings around to a strong offshore on Sunday, but the swell is barely a bump at 0.3 ft. The energy is practically nothing (6 to 13) – not worth paddling out for.

Monday the 24th sees a little more life, with a 3 ft east swell and a 11-second period, giving us a bit of moderate energy (157). Wind is cross-off, so it’s clean, but the waves are still small and weak. The offshore wind on Tuesday the 25th is a no-go because the swell is coming from the north with a short, choppy 6-second period.

Then things get wild. Wednesday the 26th brings a massive 13 ft to 16 ft west swell, with the energy jumping to 4287 and then 5935. That’s a lot of power, but it’s blowing a gale with onshore and cross-on winds at 25 to 28 mph. The surf is huge and messy – this is strictly for experts only, and even then, the conditions are going to be a battle. The wind cranks up to 53 mph on Thursday the 27th, with a severe gale making it almost impossible to surf.

For the rest of the first week and into the second, it’s a lot of small, clean days with offshore winds, but the swell is tiny – 1.0 ft to 2 ft – and the energy is low. The best of the early stuff is probably Saturday the 29th, with glassy offshore winds from the SE at 9 mph and a 2 ft east swell. It’s not big, but it’s clean and ridable for a longboard or a groveler. The energy is still low (117 to 88), though.

Now, we get to the standout. The big one is Friday the 4th of September. The afternoon sees a massive 25 ft west swell with a 12-second period, and the energy is a massive 11957. The wind is a clean cross-off from the east at 22 mph. This is a huge, powerful groundswell. For a reef break like Aja, that long period is going to make it a freight train. It’s too big for beginners, and only the most experienced crew should even think about it. The crowd is likely to be on it, for sure. The swell direction matches the optimum north swell, so it’s hitting the spot right. This is the one to get excited about, but it’s a long way out and the forecast could shuffle.

Before that, there’s a small window on Tuesday the 1st of September with a 5 ft east swell (energy 530) and clean cross-off winds, but it’s still only a 2/10 score for surf quality. Then on the 5th and 6th, we get another big west swell, but the wind is cross-shore and messy, making it tough to enjoy.

All in all, the first week is a dud. The real action is the second week, with that absolute monster on the 4th of September. If you’re a hardcore charger, that’s your target. For everyone else, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty out.

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