Aja Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

Honestly, for the next week and a half or so, it’s pretty grim. There’s a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions at Aja, and it’s not until the final few days that the ocean really starts to wake up. The first real surfable wave doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 11th, and even then, it’s nothing to write home about.

We start with Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th – both days are a write-off. Cross-on winds from the north at 15 mph dropping to 9 mph, with a weak, short-period 4 ft swell from the north. The combined energy is low (212 on Wednesday morning), and it’s just choppy and messy. Not worth paddling out.

Friday the 11th is the first bit of hope. The wind swings offshore from the ESE, 9 mph in the morning, 12 mph in the afternoon. Swell drops to 3 ft from the NNW, period 9 seconds. It’s clean, but the waves are very ordinary – small, weak, and the combined energy is only 126. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s not good.

From Saturday the 12th through to Tuesday the 15th, the swell drops to tiny levels – 1 ft to 1 ft, mostly from the east with long periods of 14 seconds, but that’s just a long-period groundswell that’s barely breaking. The combined energy is in the double digits, barely registering. It’s clean, but there’s almost nothing to ride. Crowds won’t be an issue because nobody is out.

Wednesday the 16th to Monday the 21st is a bit of a mixed bag. The swell comes up a hair, 2 ft to 3 ft, mostly from the east, with periods that vary. A few sessions have light offshore winds, like Thursday the 17th morning with SE 6 mph, and the combined energy climbs to 167 on the Thursday afternoon. But it’s still marginal. Lots of “surfable but very ordinary” conditions. Not a standout.

Then, finally, on Tuesday the 23rd and Wednesday the 24th, we get a proper pulse. This is where it gets interesting. On Tuesday the 23rd, the swell jumps to 12 ft from the north, period 8 seconds, with ENE winds at 15 mph cross-offshore. The combined energy is a massive 1542 (morning) and then 5563 (afternoon) with a 10 ft east swell and a 14-second period. This is big energy, but it’s also a warning. That 12 ft swell is too big for beginners, and with the period at 8 seconds, it’s going to be a bit crumbly – not the cleanest shape. The 14-second period in the afternoon suggests better groundswell, but at 10 ft, that’s expert-only territory. The wind is cross-off, so it’s clean, but the size and power make it heavy.

By Wednesday the 24th, it drops to 8 ft from the NNW, period 9 seconds, but the wind picks up to 25 mph from the ENE. That’s a strong breeze, cross-off, but it’s going to be blown out. The combined energy is still huge at 1278 in the morning, but the afternoon drops to 7 ft with 28 mph winds – that’s messy, strong, and not fun for paddle surfing. Honestly, at that point, the setup at Aja looks more interesting for kite surfing than a standard surf.

The standout is the morning of Tuesday the 23rd. That 12 ft north swell, with cross-off winds and a 1542 energy reading, is the biggest and most powerful of the 16 days. It’s a clean, big wave window, but only for strong, experienced surfers. The water temperature is 84°, which is about normal for the time of year, so no wetsuit needed.

Overall, it’s a long wait for one proper hit. The first week is a bust, and the second week ends with a bang – but it’s a heavy, expert-only bang.

– Rusty

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