Aja Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Aja’s got cookin’ over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, it ain’t looking flash. There’s some tiny surf early on, but the conditions are so ordinary it’s hardly worth paddling out for. The real story here is a big, messy pulse of swell kicking up around the 20th, but the wind’s gonna ruin it. Let’s break it down.

First up, Monday the 14th, we’ve got a tiny 1ft easterly swell with a period of 13 seconds. That’s groundswell, but the energy is weak – only 59 in the combined energy. Winds are cross-off, so it’s clean, but the wave comment says it’s “surfable but very ordinary.” The water temp is a toasty 84°, right about average for this time of year. Honestly, this is barely surfable. Not worth getting wet for.

Tuesday the 15th, same tiny 1ft swell, but the period drops to 12 seconds. Still clean in the morning, but by the afternoon the wind goes cross and the period tanks to 6 seconds – messy, weak windswell. No go.

Wednesday the 16th stays poor. Same small swell, cross winds, energy ratings in the 80s. The forecast calls it “poor surf conditions.” Thursday the 17th sees a slight bump to 2ft in the morning with 118 energy – still weak – but the wind is cross-off, so it’s clean. By the afternoon it’s 3ft but cross-chop sets in.

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are all poor. Cross and cross-on winds, tiny swell, energy dropping into single digits on Saturday. Sunday the 20th is where things get weird. A big 8ft to 10ft easterly swell rolls in, period at 16 seconds (very long period groundswell), and the combined energy skyrockets to 3153 and 3795. That’s strong energy. But here’s the kicker: the wind is onshore at 22 mph and cross-on. The forecast says “poor surf conditions.” That much swell with that much wind? It’s gonna be a lumpy, blown-out mess. For beginners, this is way too big – over 8ft is expert only. And with that long period, it’ll be breaking straight at a reef break, which can be tricky. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Monday the 21st keeps the onshore wind howling at 22-25 mph from the NNW, with swell dropping from 6ft to 5ft. Still poor. The rest of the week into the end of September is a total dud. Swell drops below 3ft, wind stays onshore or cross-on, energy ratings plummet. By the 29th, we’re talking 0.7ft and single-digit energy. There’s a gap of several days with no recommendations at all – from around the 24th through the 29th, it’s flat or junk.

The only thing that even gets close to a standout is that Sunday the 20th pulse, but the wind absolutely kills it. There is no good window on offer within the 16-day forecast. If you’re desperate, the cleanest tiny waves are Monday the 14th and Thursday the 17th mornings, but keep expectations in the gutter.

- Rusty

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