The Spit Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you how things are shaping up for The Spit over the coming days.

To be straight with you, the outlook is pretty grim for most of the run. The Spit is our only spot showing any data, and for the first two weeks, it’s mostly a write-off. Right now, on Friday the 3rd, we’ve got tiny 3ft ENE swell with a short 7-second period, cross-off wind, and the waves are just messy. The water’s sitting at 71°, which is bang on average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th don’t improve – wind stays cross or cross-on, and the swell is weak, around 2ft to 3ft, with moderate energy (around 127-234). It’s all pretty ordinary.

Monday the 6th kicks up a bit more size, 4ft to 6ft by the afternoon, but it’s coming from the SE with a short 7-second period and a fresh cross-shore wind that’s going to make it lumpy and choppy. The energy builds to moderate (374-431), but the quality’s just not there for a good surf.

The pattern holds through Tuesday and Wednesday – size hovers around 4ft to 8ft, but the wind is never really clean. A standout moment hits on Wednesday afternoon, the 8th of July. That’s when a 8ft SSE groundswell rolls in with an 11-second period – good, long lines. The combined energy is a whopping 1607, which is strong. But here’s the catch: the swell is too big for The Spit. This is a beginner-friendly river mouth, and anything over 5ft gets heavy. Over 8ft is expert-only, and this 8ft is borderline. If you’re a seasoned local, you might get a session, but it’s not for the faint-hearted.

After that spike, Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th drop back to 4ft to 8ft, but winds go cross or cross-on, and the quality plummets again. The rest of the second week – from the 11th onwards – sees the swell fade to nothing. By Saturday the 11th, we’re down to 2ft-3ft, and from Sunday the 12th through Monday the 13th, it’s 1ft-2ft with weak energy (33-53). Clean but tiny.

There’s one more glimmer on Wednesday the 15th of July: offshore WSW wind and a solid 7ft SSE swell, 10-second period, with strong energy at 1100. Again, though, that’s too big for The Spit, noted as “too big for this break”. So not ideal unless you’re ready for a thumping.

Thursday the 16th and beyond is small again – 3ft to 5ft – with brief offshore moments on Thursday morning, but the period stays short (6-7 seconds), so the waves are weak and fat. Friday the 17th blows up with a fresh cross-shore, making it lumpy.

Overall, there’s no true standout here for the whole 16 days. The Spit is consistent, but the conditions just aren’t lining up. The best you can hope for is Wednesday the 8th or Wednesday the 15th if you’re an expert, but otherwise, it’s a long gap of minimal surf. For kite surfers, the stronger afternoon winds from the 6th to the 9th and again on the 17th could be more interesting than paddle surfing – big chop, onshore winds, and that’s more their game.

That’s the read, folks. I’ll be watching the next update, but for now, don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty.

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