The Spit Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—if you’re looking for a classic session at The Spit over the next couple of weeks, you’re going to have to be patient. We’ve got a long stretch of ordinary, onshore slop ahead before a real window of opportunity opens up. The forecast starts off with a whimper on Tuesday the 15th, with nothing but knee-high leftovers and a messy cross-shore breeze. That’s a long, flat, frustrating start, and honestly, you might as well save your energy.

The whole first week is a write-off. The wind stays cross or cross-onshore, the swell stays small, and there’s absolutely no push. The combined energy is weak—down in the 30s and 40s on Tuesday—so don’t even bother paddling out. Wednesday the 16th sees the swell bump up a bit, particularly in the afternoon when we get a pulse of 6ft, but that’s accompanied by a strong, lumpy cross-shore breeze that’ll chop it all up. The energy jumps to 402, but it’s messy, and the poor conditions just keep rolling on.

Thursday the 17th is where things get interesting, but only for the brave. The morning brings a big 10ft swell with a 10-second period, and that’s just too much juice for The Spit. The river mouth will be a washing machine, and it’s only for experts. The energy is a massive 1760—strong and powerful—but unless you’ve got a death wish, this isn’t for the faint-hearted. It’s just too big and blown out with that fresh cross-shore. The afternoon does ease off to 5ft, but it’s still poor.

After that, we slide back into a long, frustrating flat spell. From Friday the 18th right through to the 21st, the swell’s tiny, the wind’s all over the shop, and you’ll be staring at ankle-biters with weak energy readings in the teens and twenties. Saturday the 19th has a brief, clean moment in the morning with a cross-off breeze and a bit of shape, but it’s only 2ft—hardly worth the drive.

The second week kicks off with more of the same, a bit of a bump around the 22nd to the 24th with 5ft to 5ft of messy, short-period windswell, but the wind is onshore the whole time. It’s lumpy, choppy, and totally unsurfable. The energy is moderate, sitting in the 150-240 range, but it’s all in the wrong places.

The first real standout comes late in the game, on Thursday the 25th of September. That’s when we finally see a pulse of 5ft from the ENE with a bit more energy behind it (508 to be precise) and the wind swinging light onshore in the morning. The file calls it marginal, but the potential is there. It’s a promise, not a certainty, given it’s over a week out.

But the true hero of this whole outlook is the final few days. Sunday the 28th is looking the pick of the bunch. The morning brings 5ft of east swell with a clean, cross-off breeze out of the northwest. It’s not huge, but the energy is solid (279), and the break should have some real shape to it. The river-mouth setup (The Spit) handles this kind of longer-period swell well, though it’s not quite a groundswell. That’s your window.

Tuesday the 30th might throw us a curveball with some rain showers and a southerly breeze, but it’s a while away. The main message? Don’t get excited until the 28th. Before that, it’s a waiting game, and the surf just isn’t there. Sure, there’ll be a few so-so days, but nothing that’ll get the heart racing. Keep an eye on that 28th—that’s the one worth circling on the calendar.

Stay keen,
Rusty

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