The Spit Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what we've got on the table for The Spit. It’s going to be a bit of a slow burn for the next week or so, with nothing really worth paddling out for, but the back half of the forecast window has some serious potential. We’ve got a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions from now until about the 13th of August, with small, weak swell and just not much energy in the water. The first time you might want to wet a wetsuit is on the morning of Thursday the 21st of August – that’s a long way off, but it’s the real standout.

Before we get there, we have to sit through a lot of "surfable but very ordinary" days. Sunday the 9th starts with a clean 3ft swell from the east, but it's tiny and the energy is weak (167). By Monday the 10th, the wind gets a bit messy, with a fresh offshore on the afternoon that cleans things up, but the swell is still small and poor. Tuesday the 11th goes glassy in the afternoon with 2ft east swell, but it’s barely pushing any energy (71). This pattern of small, low-energy waves continues right through until Thursday the 14th, where we see a jump to a 6ft swell from the southeast, but that comes with a moderate cross-shore chop, so it’s not doing us any favours.

Things get a bit bigger and windier from Friday the 15th through to about Wednesday the 20th, but the cross-shore and cross-onshore winds are going to chop up the surface. On Tuesday the 18th, we see a 7ft easterly swell with some serious power (1018 energy), but the onshore wind is fresh and it’s lumpy as hell. That’s not for paddling, that’s more of a kite session if you’re into that. On Thursday the 20th, the swell jumps to 8ft from the east with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is huge (2285), but the read is that it’s predicted to be too big for this break – that’s a no-go zone, even if the wind and tide look alright.

Now, the real standout we're holding out for is Friday morning, August 21st. You get a clean 6ft swell from the east, hitting with a solid 10-second period and strong energy (691). The wind? Absolutely dead – glassy conditions. That is the pick of the whole forecast. It’s a river break, and with that east swell direction matching the optimum, and clean, glassy conditions, it’s going to be beautiful. Keep in mind, crowds are likely here at The Spit, so get there early. The water’s at 69°, just a touch below the usual for this time of year – no surprise, feels like a normal August.

The following day, Saturday the 22nd, is also excellent with a morning offshore wind from the west, cleaning up the 6ft east swell (862 energy, 11-second period). That’s another long-period groundswell, and on a river break like this, it should wrap in nicely with good shape. It’s also worth noting the Sunday the 23rd morning, with a moderate offshore wind again and a solid 6ft east swell (617 energy). That’s three mornings in a row that look promising. The second week is looking very, very solid after that long dry spell. Don’t get too excited too early – it’s a long-range call – but the models are pointing to a proper run of waves.

Don't bother paddling out until at least that Thursday the 21st. The wait is worth it.

Rusty.

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