The Spit Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

To be straight with you, the outlook for The Spit over the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions, with hardly a window that’s worth paddling out for. The first real glimmer doesn’t come until Thursday the 23rd of July, and even then it’s only marginal.

The pattern is dominated by a persistent southerly breeze, often fresh to strong, which keeps the surface lumpy and messy. The swell energy does pick up, especially from the 18th to the 21st, with combined energy readings climbing into the thousands (985 to 2324), but the wind is all wrong – cross to cross-onshore, and often strong. That’s a lot of water moving, but it’s going to be blown out and choppy. For the most part, the swell is from the SE to ESE, with periods around 8 to 10 seconds, so it’s a mix of windswell and medium-period groundswell. For a river break like The Spit, that long-period ESE groundswell on the 20th (11 seconds) could have offered some shape, but the cross-onshore wind ruins it.

Water temperature is sitting at 70°, which is about average for the time of year with a negligible anomaly of -0.2°, so nothing unusual there.

The only time the score even nudges up is on the 23rd of July – Thursday morning. We get a light southerly breeze (6 mph), making it a light cross-shore with just small ripples. The swell is 4 ft from the east at 9 seconds. The combined energy is in the moderate range (232). It’s still just a marginal forecast, but that’s the best we get. The afternoon sees a light onshore easterly, which could turn it a bit soft. Still, it’s the only day in the whole run with a score of 1 out of 10, and that’s as good as it gets here.

After that, it’s back to poor conditions through to the end of the month. The wind picks up again, and the swell drops off. On the 29th, there’s a brief moment of light wind and a 1 ft swell from the SE with a 11-second period, but the energy is weak (89), and it’s not enough to get excited about.

So, the standout? It’s got to be Thursday the 23rd of July, morning session. Light wind, 4 ft east swell. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the cleanest and most rideable window in a bleak forecast. If you’re a beginner, this is your day – the swell is small and manageable. The Spit is a consistent river break, so you can usually count on a wave, but crowds are often around, so expect company.

For the rest of the run, honestly, the setup with significant swell and strong, messy wind makes this look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not unusual when the wind doesn’t play ball.

Rusty.

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