The Peak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for The Peak and I’ve got to be straight with you – this is a frustrating run. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, weak, and often messy conditions, so as a heads up, there’s basically nothing worth paddling out for from the start of the period right through until the end of the first week.

Right now, Friday 17th July, the water’s sitting at a very unusual 64° – that’s much warmer than normal for this time of year, but it’s the only notable thing going on. The swell is a pathetic 2 ft from the NNW with a short 6-second period, and the combined energy is a very weak 46. Not only is it tiny, but we’ve got a 12 mph onshore wind from the NW making things a messy washout. This same story plays out for the rest of the week and into the next one: tiny 1 ft to 2 ft waves, periods between 5 and 11 seconds, and wind that’s either onshore or cross-onshore. The energy readings are all in the weak two-digit range, usually under 50. It’s just poor surf conditions, day after day.

The first glimmer of something bigger doesn’t appear until Friday 24th July afternoon, where the swell edges up to 3 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period – moderate wave energy (201) – but the wind is still a moderate cross-onshore from the W, so it’s choppy and still rated as poor. Honestly, unless you’re desperate to get wet, keep the board in the car.

Now, on Saturday 25th July morning, we finally get a pulse of swell that’s worth looking at. Swell hits 5 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period and a strong energy reading of 522. The wind is cross-shore from the WSW at 9 mph. It’s rated as marginal – mainly because of likely tricky tides – but for the first time, there’s enough size to get some steep walls. That said, The Peak is an exposed reef that favours W swell, and this is coming from the WNW, so it’s not a perfect match. Still, a 5 ft wave (borderline for beginners) with light cross-shore wind is probably the most interesting window in the whole 16 days. Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning (26th July) hold similar 5 ft swell, but the wind turns more cross-onshore or goes glassy with early morning NW at 3 mph. The period drops to 9 seconds though, and the energy is around 380 – still moderate to strong.

By Sunday afternoon (26th July) things go south again: 6 ft from the WNW but with a shorter 8-second period and a cross-onshore breeze – turning it into a messy, choppy affair. Not great.

Into the second week, from Monday 27th July, the swell gets solid – 7 ft from the WNW (10-second period, 867 energy) – but with a 12 mph onshore wind from the NW, it’s a total blown-out mess. For experienced surfers only, and even then, the onshore wind will shut it down. That kind of size with onshore wind is honestly more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers. It stays similar through Tuesday and Wednesday, with 5 ft to 7 ft of WNW swell but always accompanied by moderate onshore or cross-onshore winds. The combined energy readings hit 916 on the Monday – that’s strong, but without clean wind, it’s wasted.

From Wednesday 29th July onward, the swell drops back down to 3 ft to 4 ft through the end of the month and into early August, with the same story of onshore or cross-onshore winds and short periods (mostly 5-8 seconds). Energy readings are back in the double-digit to low triple-digit range, indicating weak to moderate at best.

So, if you’re after a standout, the only one I’d call is Saturday 25th July morning. That 5 ft WNW swell with a 10-second period and light cross-shore wind at The Peak might give a few clean runners before the wind shifts. It’s not perfect – direction is a bit off – but it’s the best on offer. After that, hold tight; the rest of the forecast is a long, mediocre grind.

Rusty.

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