Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s be straight with you. I’ve had a good look at what’s coming down the pipe for Te Ikaamaru Bay over the next couple of weeks, and I’ll be honest, it’s a tough one for us paddle surfers. The whole 16-day window is filled with “poor surf conditions” flags. There’s not a single standout day, and no break here is getting a recommendation from me for a proper surf session.

The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s one small silver lining, but it doesn’t help the wave situation.

We start off this Saturday the 12th with a tiny 1ft NW swell and a 16-second period. That long period is decent for energy, but the combined energy is a weak 43, and the forecast says poor surf. Sunday the 13th is glassy in the morning with a 2ft NW swell but the period drops to 6 seconds, making it weak and short-period junk. That afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph offshore, but the swell drops to 0.3ft. Honestly, it’s a washout.

The whole first week is a bust. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are small and cross-onshore, with the wind building to a fresh 19-22 mph on Tuesday afternoon, making for lumpy, messy conditions. Wednesday the 16th brings the biggest swell of the period at 5ft to 7ft from the NW with a 6-second period, but it’s accompanied by gale-force onshore winds (31 mph in the morning, 28 mph in the afternoon). The combined energy hits 190 and then 356 – that’s moderate to strong energy – but with those winds, it’s going to be a blown-out mess. This setup at Te Ikaamaru Bay, being a beach setup, looks far more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

After that, it’s a long stretch of tiny swell, cross-onshore breezes, or flat conditions right through to the 25th of September. There’s a small pulse of 4ft NW swell on the 23rd with a 6-second period and 125 combined energy, but it’s accompanied by a near-gale cross-offshore wind of 37 mph. Clean but completely unrideable for a normal surfer.

The only glimmer, and it’s a very faint one, shows up right at the end on Sunday the 27th of September. The afternoon brings a moderate offshore breeze at 12 mph, with a 6ft NW swell at a 6-second period. The combined energy is a solid 299, and the forecast finally says “expect good surf conditions,” rating it a measly 2/10. That 6ft is getting up there for a beginner, but with the short period, it’s going to be a bit crumbly. It’s the best we’ve got in this entire window, and that’s not saying much.

So, my verdict: put the boards in the rack for the next two weeks. The blank run is a normal thing for this area when the patterns are this stubborn. It rarely stays this poor for long, but for now, it’s a flat spell. Keep an eye on the 27th as a possible sneaky session.

Rusty.

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