Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me tell you, it’s been a rough stretch for the Bay. The next 16 days are a real mixed bag, and honestly, there are some proper gaps where you wouldn’t want to bother paddling out. Most of the time, the wind is just howling onshore, or the swell is junk. Let's break it down.

Right off the bat, from Saturday the 29th through to the 10th of September, it’s a write-off. Nearly two full weeks of poor conditions. Strong onshores from the NNW and NW are gonna tear the place up. You’ll see some swell heights around 5 ft to 6 ft, but with short-period windswell (4-7 seconds) and combined wave energy that’s all over the place – sometimes weak (35), sometimes moderate (299) – it’s all just messy. The wind is consistently onshore or cross-onshore, making for lumpy, choppy, unknown quality surf. Not worth a second look.

There is a brief, very brief, glimmer on the 10th of September, Thursday afternoon. The wind switches to a light cross-offshore from the SSE (15 km/h), and the wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” The swell is 3 ft from the NNW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is a moderate (155). It’s the only time in this whole run the score even breaks zero, but “very ordinary” is about right. Don't get your hopes up.

Then, from the 11th of September, it goes weird. Friday morning and afternoon show a long-period swell (14 seconds) but it’s tiny – only 1.0 ft. The combined energy is weak (40). The wind is cross-offshore and strong, so it’s clean, but there’s no wave to ride.

By Sunday the 13th, the swell bumps up to 6 ft from the NW with a 6-second period and moderate energy (209). The wind is a brisk cross-offshore from the south (40 km/h), so it might be clean-ish, but it’s likely gonna be a bumpy, blown-out mess from that NW direction.

The real kicker? Since the optimum swell direction is NW, the swell is coming from the right direction, but the wind is just killing it. Every time there’s size, there’s a near gale or stronger onshore wind. If the swell gets over 8 ft in the second week (like on the 4th of September with 8 ft and 586 energy or the 7th of September with a massive 13 ft and 2415 energy), forget about paddling. That’s expert-only, and with a gale on it, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than anything else.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. There’s no clean, quality window. The one single moment on the afternoon of the 10th of September is the closest thing, but it’s not a standout. It’s just the least bad option. The water temperature anomaly isn't given, so we’ll move on. This area is just getting hammered.

Rusty.

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