Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this 16-day stretch for Te Ikaamaru Bay is a tough one. The entire forecast window is basically a write-off for any decent surf, so we’re looking at a long blank run from now through to the end of the month. No standout days, no waves worth paddling out for.

Let’s walk through it. From Friday 17 July, it kicks off with a tiny 3 ft of northerly junk, period a pathetic 4 seconds, and a fresh cross-onshore northerly at 19 mph making it lumpy – total dirge. Combined energy is weak at 29. Saturday 18 July has a brief moment of near-flat conditions, with just 0.3 ft of a very long-period NW groundswell (18 seconds), but it’s cross-onshore and barely there. Sunday 19 July sees a bit of clean-ish wind but only 1 ft of NW slop at 4 seconds – not even worth waxing up for. Monday 20 July is offshore and clean, but there’s no swell at all, just a big fat zero.

Tuesday 21 July brings a fresh cross-onshore and some 3 ft of NNW swell at 4 seconds, but the wind is howling at 22 mph, so it’s lumpy and blown-out. Through the rest of the week and into the next, we get a mix of clean conditions but tiny, weak swell – nothing over 2 ft, periods mostly short (3–5 seconds), and combined energy rarely cracking 30. Even the rare clean patches (like Saturday 26 July with a light offshore and no swell) are flat.

The water temp is 55°F, which is bang-on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. But the surf – or lack of it – is the real story. For a break that’s fairly consistent, this is a grim run. The few small pulses we get are too weak and messy to be safe for beginners anyway; anything over 5 ft never shows up, so no worries about being too big. Honestly, with these strong winds and tiny chop, kite surfers might find the setup more interesting than us paddle surfers.

Hang in there – forecasts can change, but right now, don’t hold your breath.

- Rusty

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