Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Te Ikaamaru Bay is a tough one. For the next 16 days, there’s simply nothing that qualifies as a proper surf session. It’s a long, frustrating gap right from the start, and the conditions just never line up.

We kick off Saturday the 4th of July with a messy, strong cross-onshore wind howling at 28 mph. The swell’s there at 6 ft coming from the NNW with a short, weak period of only 6 seconds – combined wave energy (200) is moderate, but it’s all blown out and choppy. No use to us.

That sets the tone for the first week. Sunday the 5th is more of the same – 6 ft NNW swell, still cross-on and messy, with a fresh onshore breeze. Monday the 6th sees the swell drop to nothing – 0.3 ft – and though the wind swings offshore later, there’s just no wave energy to work with. Tuesday the 7th is clean with a moderate offshore breeze, but the swell is tiny at 1.0 ft to 1 ft (energy 10–12). You could paddle around, but you won’t catch a wave.

From Wednesday the 8th right through to Sunday the 12th, we see a lot of "zero" swell readings and strong to gale-force southerly winds. There’s a tease of a 0.3 ft swell from the NW with a very long period of 16–18 seconds on a couple of days, but that’s just a ghost – combined energy is pitiful at 10–12. It’s clean, but it’s a lake out there.

Things get a bit bigger from Tuesday the 14th onwards, but the wind turns nasty again. Tuesday shows 4 ft from the north, but it’s a short-period windswell (5 seconds, energy 50), and it’s coming with a fresh cross-onshore wind – lumpy and messy. Wednesday the 15th is actually the biggest we see: 8 ft to 8 ft from the NNW, with combined energy jumping to 553–588. That’s moderate-strong energy, and the period is still short at 7 seconds. But here’s the kicker – the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy. At that size, it’s also getting too big for beginners, and with those conditions, even experts won’t love it. Thursday the 16th has some cleaner conditions later, but the swell fades fast to 3 ft then 2 ft.

The final few days, from Friday the 17th to Sunday the 19th, are a write-off: gale-force winds, tiny or zero swell, and no wave energy to speak of.

So, here’s the bottom line: for Te Ikaamaru Bay, this is a blank run. The break is fairly consistent normally, but the forecasts just aren’t cooperating here – strong winds and poor swell alignment have killed every window. We might get a kite-surfing day on the 15th with that 8 ft and strong cross-onshore wind, but for paddle surfing, it’s a solid 16 days of disappointment. Forecasts can change, but for now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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