Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the cards for Te Ikaamaru Bay. Gotta be straight with you, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for any kind of decent paddle session. The whole period is a classic case of “leave the board in the shed.” There’s a big gap of quiet, messy conditions ahead, so don’t get your hopes up early.

Looking at the first day, Monday the 14th, it’s a no-go from the start. Tiny swell at 0.3 ft mixed with a nasty cross-onshore breeze, just choppy and unrideable.

Tuesday the 15th stays rough, with a bit more size pushing up to 2 ft and 3 ft, but the wind swings onshore and gets stronger at 18 to 22 mph. The period is a shocker at 3-4 seconds, so it’s basically wind slop. Lumpy and messy.

Wednesday the 16th actually sees some size jump up to 7 ft, and the wind is straight onshore at a brutal 31 mph. That’s not surf conditions, that’s survival conditions. The combined energy hits 376 (moderate), but it’s so blown out it’s worthless for paddling. With that much wind and a beach setup, this is more of a kite surfer’s playground than a surfer’s.

Thursday and Friday, the 17th and 18th, offer a little drop in size to around 3 ft - 4 ft, but the wind is all over the place, either cross-on or strong cross-off. Friday morning actually cleans up with a cross-off breeze, but the swell is tiny and weak with only 90 combined energy. Not worth the paddle.

Then we hit a dead zone from Saturday the 19th through to Thursday the 24th of September. There’s a full six-day stretch where the swell is either flat, tiny, or the wind is howling near gale force. The water will be messy or blown out. Nothing to report.

Friday the 25th is the only true standout in the whole outlook. It’s still a way off, so the confidence is lower, but it’s worth marking on the calendar. Morning kicks off glassy, with the wind dropping to 3 mph and going glassy. The swell picks up to 5 ft from the NW with a period of 6 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 200 (moderate). The afternoon stays glassy. This is the one moment where it looks surfable, though the quality is only “surfable waves but very ordinary.” For the whole chart, that’s the best we’ve got. Bring a shortboard and be prepared to work for what you get.

The weekend of the 27th and 28th sees a spike in size again, pushing 6 ft and 5 ft, but the wind is back to being a moderate cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it choppy and sloppy. The period is short at 6 seconds, so the waves won’t have much shape. Another one to skip.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no wetsuit surprises.

Sorry lads, it’s a tough run. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on the 25th, but otherwise, the bay is not cooperating.

Rusty.

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