Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – we’re looking at a pretty grim 16-day window for Te Ikaamaru Bay. The finder is basically a blank page for anything worth paddling out for. There’s a long stretch of nothing useful, so don’t hold your breath.

The water’s sitting at about 56°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s small comfort. The whole pattern is dominated by poor surf conditions with wind and swell never lining up. We’ve got a few days early on, Monday the 3rd, with a tiny 2ft NW windswell, but the wind is all over the place – cross-off in the morning, then a nasty cross-on 12 mph breeze in the afternoon. The energy is weak, just 32, so it’s flat and messy. Forget it.

Then we hit a massive dead zone. From Tuesday the 4th all the way through to Sunday the 9th, the model shows zero surf. That’s almost a full week of nothing. The wind is howling out of the south and northwest at times, up to 31 mph, but there’s no swell to ride. Even a glassy morning on Thursday the 6th can’t save us because there’s no wave to surf.

Things try to flicker back to life on Friday the 7th, but it’s a cruel joke. The swell bumps up to 4ft and then 6ft from the NW, but it’s onshore, howling at 25-28 mph, and the period is a short, weak 5-6 seconds. The energy climbs to 182, but it’s just blown-out slop. Saturday the 8th is worse – 7ft of NNW windswell with onshore winds, energy hitting 340. That’s not surfable, that’s a washing machine.

Sunday the 9th finally sees the wind swing offshore, but it’s too late – the swell has dropped to 2ft with a weak 8-second period and only 59 energy. Clean, sure, but tiny. The rest of the first week and into the second is a repeating pattern of small, weak swell and poor wind, with the odd spike of bigger, messy onshore junk. Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th offer clean, offshore conditions, but the swell is 0.7ft to 1.0ft – you’d need a lake to surf that.

The only real standout in this whole mess is the morning of Saturday the 15th. The swell comes up to 8ft from the NW with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 1035. That’s a lot of power. But the wind is a light cross-on, just 9 mph, so it’ll be lumpy. At 8ft, this is firmly in expert territory – too big for beginners. The afternoon blows up with a 10ft NW swell and 31 mph south winds, which is just dangerous. That morning session is the only real chance for a decent wave, but it’s a solid week and a half away, so don’t bank on it. The following week is mostly small, clean, and gutless, with a few 0.3ft blips that are pure lake conditions.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially on the 15th. There’s just no quality window for a proper surf. Hang tight, grab a coffee, and wait for the models to change.

Rusty

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