Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you: the next 16 days at Te Ikaamaru Bay are a tough watch. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, messy, and often windy conditions with nothing that really gets the heart pumping. This area is a beginner-friendly, fairly consistent spot, but the patterns just aren’t aligning to give us any kind of decent window.

Right now, the water’s sitting at 57°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s about the only nice thing I can say.

Starting off on Tuesday the 15th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft to 3ft northerly swell with a short 4-second period and fresh cross-onshore winds. It’s lumpy and weak (energy values of 21 and 42). Not worth a paddle.

Wednesday the 16th sees the biggest swell of the whole run, pushing 6ft to 7ft from the northwest, but it’s short-period junk at 6 seconds. With near-gale force onshore winds, it’s a complete blowout. The energy jumps to 237 then 364 – moderate wave energy – but the quality is non-existent. This is a classic case where the setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Thursday the 17th is more of the same: 5ft to 6ft windswell, strong cross-onshore to onshore winds, and chaotic conditions. Energy sits between 179 and 220 (moderate). Forget it.

From Friday the 18th right through the end of the month, the swell drops right off a cliff. Heights are mostly under 2ft, with periods barely scraping 4 to 7 seconds. The combined energy is weak, often dipping below 40. The mornings on the 20th, 22nd, and 23rd offer clean conditions with offshore or cross-offshore winds, but there’s simply no swell to push through. The biggest “clean” window is on the morning of the 20th of September (Sunday) with a 2ft northwest swell and good cross-offshore breeze, but you’ll be fighting for knee-high dribbles. The 23rd sees a weird 0.3ft pulse with an 18-second period – that’s a very long-period groundswell, but it’s barely a ripple in the water (energy of 12).

The gap in any real surf is basically from the 18th right to the 30th. There’s a flicker of life on the morning of the 30th of September with a 2ft northwest swell and clean cross-offshore winds, but it’s still just small and weak.

If you’re a beginner just trying to get wet and practice pop-ups, the cleanest tiny days are your best bet, but don’t expect to catch much. For anyone else, this is a 16-day blank run. It’s one of those stretches where the ocean just says "not today." Forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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