Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s shaping up for our local patch.

Honestly, I’ve gotta be straight with you – looking at this 16-day window, it’s a real tough stretch. We’re staring down the barrel of a long, quiet run with no real quality surf to get excited about. The first day we see any energy at all is Wednesday the 22nd, but it’s barely a bump. From there, we’ve got a solid week of wind and weather that just won’t play ball, and then a long gap of nothing before a few flickers of life right at the very end.

Te Ikaamaru Bay is the only spot on the cards, and it’s a beginner-friendly, fairly consistent break, though it can get crowded sometimes. The water temp is sitting at 55°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

The first bit of action on the 22nd is tiny – we’re talking 0.7 ft of swell from the north with a 4-second period. The combined energy is a measly 1, so it’s weak. Winds are glassy, so it’s clean, but there’s just no push. It’s a flat spell.

Then the wind cranks up. From Thursday the 23rd through to Friday the 25th, we get a building swell, but it’s totally ruined by strong onshore and cross-onshore winds. On Friday morning, the swell hits 8 ft from the NNW, with a 7-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 553 – that’s strong energy. But it’s blowing a near gale straight onshore, making it a washing machine. That’s expert-only, messy, and pretty much unsurfable.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see the swell drop back down to under 3 ft, but the winds switch to a clean cross-off, so the surface is clean. The energy is weak, though, with the combined energy in the double digits. It’s small and clean, but there’s not enough to really ride.

We then hit a dead zone. From Monday the 27th all the way through to Wednesday the 6th of August, it’s a mix of tiny, weak swell and flat spells. There are a few glassy moments on the 27th and the 6th, with tiny 0.7 ft and 1 ft waves, but the combined energy is next to nothing. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or messy, and we’ve got a few days of completely flat water with no swell at all. It’s a proper blank run.

The only glimmer of hope is a longer period swell that shows up on the 30th of July. Thursday morning has a 7 ft WNW swell with a 7-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 343 – that’s moderate to strong energy. The winds are a clean cross-off, so it’s clean. That’s the best-looking window in the whole forecast, but it’s still a long way off. Keep an eye on it, but don’t book the day off work just yet.

Overall, it’s a pretty grim outlook. Te Ikaamaru Bay is the only option, and it’s just not delivering. The pattern suggests these blank runs are more normal for this area, so we gotta be patient. Forecasts can change, but for now, your board is staying in the bag.

Rusty.

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