Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into the outlook for your local patch.

To be honest, we’re looking at a pretty grim 16-day window with not a single solid recommendation popping up. The surf is going to be a real struggle for most of it, so don’t get your hopes up too high. There’s a long gap of poor conditions right at the start that stretches all the way through.

The first record kicks off Tuesday, July 21st. Te Ikaamaru Bay is seeing a tiny 0.3 ft swell from the northwest with a 11-second period, but a fresh 30 km/h cross-on wind from the north-northwest has it all lumpy and messy. The combined energy is a weak 10 – not worth paddling out for. The water temperature is 55°F which is pretty much normal for this time of year, with an anomaly of just 0.7°F.

Moving into Wednesday, July 22nd, the wind drops right off to a light 5 km/h, and things look clean, but the swell is tiny – 1.0 ft in the morning and dropping to 0.7 ft by the afternoon. The energy is almost nothing, with values of 3 and 1. You’d be sitting out there on a flat lake.

Thursday, July 23rd, sees the wind pick up again to 35-40 km/h onshore, with a weak 3 ft to 4 ft swell. It’s blown out, lumpy, and the energy is still only 27 to 42. Not a chance.

Then from Friday, July 24th, the swell actually gets some size – 8 ft to 8 ft from the north-northwest – but it’s accompanied by a near gale (50-55 km/h) and light rain. The energy jumps to 538 and 718, which is strong, but with that wind it’s a complete mess. This setup would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Saturday, July 25th, finally sees the wind swing offshore from the south, but the swell drops back to 3 ft in the morning and 1.0 ft in the afternoon. The energy is 88 and 65 – still weak. The 1.0 ft afternoon swell has a long 14-second period, meaning it’s a groundswell, but it’s so small it’s barely rideable. It’s clean, but there’s just nothing to surf.

Sunday, July 26th, is more of the same – tiny 1.0 ft swell, weak energy, strong offshore winds that make it clean but hard to paddle into. The combined energy is only 10 in the morning and 6 in the afternoon.

From Monday, July 27th, through to the end of the first week and into the second, there’s a long stretch of nothing. The swell flatlines completely for several days, with zero energy recorded. The wind stays offshore and clean, but there’s literally no wave to ride.

The second week is no better. We see a little bump on Thursday, July 30th, with 5 ft swell from the north, but the wind is onshore and strong, with energy up to 158. It’s still poor. By Friday, July 31st, the swell builds to 6 ft, but it’s onshore with a near gale, and the energy hits 426 and 763. Again, it’s blown out and messy. This is for experts only, and even then, it’s not clean.

The best run of the entire period might be Sunday, August 2nd, when the wind drops offshore and the swell is 3 ft to 2 ft from the north-northwest with a 9-second period. The energy is 110 in the morning and 70 in the afternoon. It’s clean, but the swell is pretty small and weak. It’s the least bad option, but still not a standout.

After that, it’s back to tiny, onshore slop or flat calm through to Wednesday, August 5th, with no surf to speak of.

So, the honest truth: there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. It’s a blank run, and that’s more normal for this area when the weather patterns don’t line up. Keep your board waxed, check back, and hope the forecasts change. For now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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