Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through it. We’ve got a mixed bag coming up for Te Ikaamaru Bay over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, the first week and a half is a write-off for anything decent, but there’s a little glimmer of hope right at the tail end of the forecast.

The opening days are a mess. Friday morning, September 4th, we’re looking at a solid 10 ft swell from the NNW, but with a gale-force 40 mph wind from the NNW blowing straight onshore, it’s just a washing machine. The combined swell energy is a powerful 1052 (strong wave energy), but with that wind, it’s unsurfable. That wind stays howling onshore right through the weekend and into the first part of the next week. The swell drops and jumps around, but the wind just won’t let up, giving us “poor surf conditions” across the board.

We finally get a bit of a break on Monday, September 7th. The wind swings to the SSE, offering a cross-offshore breeze. But the swell has dropped to a tiny 2 ft. The combined energy is a weak 60. The morning is clean, but there’s just not enough push. Later that afternoon, the wind goes fully offshore, but the swell drops to 1 ft, making it a real struggle to paddle into anything. The next few days stay small and clean, but with the swell barely cracking 1 ft, you’re better off waiting.

There’s a weird spike on Friday, September 11th. We get a tiny 1 ft swell, but it has a very long period of 20 seconds. The combined energy is 150 (moderate). The wind is cross-offshore and clean. This is a long-period groundswell, and while it’s clean, the size is so small and the period so long that it’s likely to just be a long, flat wall at the beach break. Better suited for a point or reef, but Te Ikaamaru Bay is what it is. Not a standout.

The real action, if you can call it that, arrives on Friday, September 18th. The morning shows an 8 ft swell from the NNW, period of 8 seconds, with a cross-offshore wind from the SSE at 16 mph. The combined energy hits 904 (strong). The report says “marginal” but the conditions are clean. This is a lot of swell – over 8 ft – so it’s for experienced surfers only. The real treat is the afternoon. The swell drops to a more manageable 7 ft, still from the NNW, period 7 seconds, and the wind lightens up to a gentle 9 mph from the SSE. Combined energy is 425 (moderate). The report says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the only window in the whole 16 days that looks like a proper session. The wind is clean and cross-off, the swell has some size, and it’s not a hurricane. It’s a Friday afternoon, so expect some crowds, as it’s a spot that sees people.

After that, it fades again. Saturday morning, September 19th, the wind swings back onshore and the swell drops to 3 ft. Back to square one.

So, for the long haul, the only true standout is the afternoon of Friday, September 18th. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on the forecasts, but right now, that’s your best bet. The rest of the time, you’re wrestling with onshore winds or flat spells.

Stay frothy,
Rusty

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