Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break this down.

This is a grim stretch, no two ways about it. The entire 16-day window is a desert, with the first real chance of surf not showing up until the 25th of July. From the 15th of July right through the 24th, it’s flat or so small you’d be wasting your time. The wind is a killer – fresh onshore from the NNW and NW, just churning the surface into a mess. There’s a couple of glassy mornings around the 20th, but with waves only 0.3 ft, it’s more of a pond than a break.

The first pulse of swell finally arrives on the 25th of July. Saturday morning looks clean with a light cross-offshore breeze from the S and a 4 ft NNW swell. The combined energy is only 90 (weak), but it’s clean. The afternoon gets a bit of an onshore wobble, but the swell bumps up to 5 ft with 143 (moderate) energy from the NW. That’s the best we’ll see, but the wind is onshore, so it’ll be lumpy. The 26th is similar: Sunday morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze and a 5 ft NW swell, energy at 158 (moderate). The afternoon holds 4 ft with clean conditions. The 27th has a bit more size – 5 ft on Monday morning – but it’s straight onshore, so it’s going to be a messy, blown-out affair.

The standout here is Te Ikaamaru Bay. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, fairly consistent, and it’s set up for a west-northwest swell. The water temp is about 53°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year – just a degree cooler than average, so nothing unusual. Crowds are only sometimes an issue, so you’ll have some space. The best chance for a decent session is Sunday the 26th of July, morning. The swell is 5 ft from the NW, period is 7 seconds (short period, so it’ll be a bit racy), but the wind is cross-offshore from the S, keeping it clean. The combined energy is 158 (moderate), so there’s some push. It’s not a dreamy groundswell, but it’s the cleanest swell with the best wind of the whole outlook.

If you’re a beginner, the 5 ft on the 25th afternoon might be a touch big and messy, but the 4 ft-5 ft range on the 26th is more manageable, especially with the offshore wind. Just keep an eye on the wind direction – if it flips onshore, it’ll be a washout.

Overall, this is a long, dry spell. The first 10 days are a total blank. If you’re desperate, the 26th of July Sunday morning is your best bet. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s clean and has a little bit of energy. The rest of the window is a write-off or blown out. That’s the bead on it.

Rusty.

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