Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for Te Ikaamaru Bay is a long, quiet stretch with barely a pulse. We’re looking at a 16-day window that starts with nothing worth paddling out for and only a tiny flicker of life right at the very end.

The water at Te Ikaamaru Bay is sitting at 56°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year – a bit of a warm anomaly, but nothing too wild.

The first week? Dead quiet. From Sunday the 2nd right through to Saturday the 15th, there’s not a single recommendation. That’s a solid 14-day gap of flat, choppy, or just plain messy conditions. Winds are mostly cross-on or strong, and the few tiny swells that show up are weak – energy values are all under 100 (like 2, 6, 32, 40) – and the period is short, around 3 to 5 seconds. That’s just windslop, not surf.

There’s a bit of a pulse on Tuesday the 11th with swell hitting 6 ft to 7 ft from the NNW and wave energy jumping to 215 and 465 (moderate to strong), but it’s all cross-on wind and choppy – perfect for a kite session, not for a paddle. On Wednesday the 13th, there’s a very long period 17-second groundswell from the NW, but it’s only 1.0 ft and the wind is a fresh cross-on mess. That long period energy would be something at a point or reef, but here it’s just a tease.

The only real chance comes on Sunday the 16th. That morning we see 6 ft from the NNW with a 6-second period, and by the afternoon it’s 6 ft from the NW. Wave energy is 194 and 257 (moderate). The wind goes glassy – calm, dead flat. That’s clean. The surf is described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” – it’s a 1 out of 10, but it’s the best we’ve got. For a beginner-friendly break that’s fairly consistent, this is a rare moment of glass. Keep in mind, 6 ft is getting a bit punchy for raw beginners, but it’s not huge. The swell direction is NW, which is the optimum direction for this spot, so it’s lining up right. Crowds are possible here – it’s a fairly exposed bay that turns on when the wind drops.

That Sunday window is the standout. After that, Monday the 17th gets blown out again with strong onshore winds from the NW.

So, if you’re keen, pencil in Sunday the 16th for a dawn or afternoon session. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the only clean, rideable surf in the whole 16-day run. Otherwise, we’re in a flat spell – but this spot is fairly consistent, so it won’t stay this quiet forever.

Rusty.

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