Te Ikaamaru Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surf’s up, or maybe not just yet. Let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. I’ve been staring at the charts for Te Ikaamaru Bay, and honestly, it’s a bit of a waiting game. For the first few days, the ocean’s just not cooperating. We’ve got some solid wind, but it’s not doing us any favors, and the swell is basically a no-show. It’s going to be a week of staring at a pretty flat ocean before things finally start to wake up.

Looking at the early part, Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are write-offs. The wind is howling out of the south at 40 mph, which is a cross-off but the swell is non-existent. You’d be paddling for nothing. The energy is basically zero. Monday brings a tiny 0.3ft pulse from the NW with a long 15-second period, but it’s not enough to surf on. We’re just getting teased.

The mid-week is more of the same. Tuesday the 18th has a bit of a cross-chop on a 0.3ft N swell, and it’s not worth getting wet for. Wednesday and Thursday stay small and messy, with the wind swinging around. Finally, on Thursday afternoon the 20th, we see a little bump of 3ft from the NW with a short 4-second period, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. It’s not a pretty sight.

The first real sign of life comes Friday the 21st. We get a 5ft NW swell with a period of 5 seconds. The energy starts to pick up, hitting that moderate range. The wind is cross-onshore in the morning, but it goes straight onshore in the afternoon. This is going to be a lumpy, messy beast, and honestly, for a beginner spot like this, the conditions are going to be a handful. It’s big enough to be intimidating at 5ft, and the wind is going to make it tricky.

Saturday the 22nd is where things get interesting. The swell jumps to 5ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, with the energy getting strong. The period is still a short 6-7 seconds, so it's going to be a bit walled up. The wind is straight onshore from the NW at 31 mph, which will make it pretty rough. This is the biggest swell of the period, and for the experts out there, there might be some heavy, blown-out waves to be had. But for the average surfer, this is going to be a full-on battle. The 6ft size is getting into expert-only territory.

Then we settle back down. Sunday the 23rd drops to 4ft, still with that short period, and the wind is still onshore. By the time we hit Monday the 24th, the swell trickles back down to 1ft. The wind goes offshore from the SSE, and the afternoon goes glassy, but the ocean is just about flat again. It’s a cruel tease.

The following week looks like more of the same, with a couple of interesting moments. On the 27th, we see a 6ft pulse from the NW in the morning, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. The afternoon is where it gets interesting, with the swell building to 7ft from the NNW. The wind switches to a light SSE cross-off, and the sky gets cloudy. The energy is strong. The wave comment says it’s “marginal,” but for an expert, this late-afternoon session on Thursday the 27th might be the closest thing to a real standout. That’s a solid, strong swell hitting a beach break, so expect it to be heavy and maybe a bit too straight. It’s a last-minute call kind of day.

After that, it’s a fade-out. Friday the 28th has some 5ft leftover from the NNW, but it’s short period, and the wind goes a bit wild. Then we drop back down to nothing for the final days of the month. The long-range stuff for the 30th and 31st is just tiny and weak, with a long period but no power.

So, here’s the deal. The first week is a total loss. Your best bet is that late Thursday session on the 27th. It’s a long way out, so don’t book your flights, but it’s the one window that has some serious size and the wind might just clean it up. Keep an eye on that one. Everything else is a whole bunch of nothing. The water temp is about average for the time of year at 56°, so bring the booties.

This is one of those times where we just have to be patient. The ocean’s not giving us anything to work with, but it never stays flat forever.

Rusty

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