Tairua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here.

First up, don't get your hopes up too early. The next week or so is flat and pretty grim for a paddle. Tairua Beach is our only spot on the cards, and honestly, it's a quiet stretch for the area. We're looking at a big gap of almost no decent surf before things get interesting, but for the wrong reasons.

Starting this Saturday, July 11th, we've got tiny, weak surf. The morning brings a 3ft swell from the ESE with a short 10-second period, but the wind is a cross-off from the SSE at 9 mph, keeping it clean. The water's sitting at 60°, which is pretty normal for this time of year. Combined swell energy is only 212 (moderate), so it's a dribbler. The afternoon stays the same size. Sunday the 12th drops even smaller to 2ft, and by Monday and Tuesday we're looking at waves under 2ft – forget it, it's a flat spell. Through to Sunday the 19th, it's all below 3ft and mostly messy with onshore or glassy but tiny conditions. Not worth a paddle.

There's a real gap in decent, surfable swell from now until the very end of the week starting July 21st. But when it comes, it's not for the faint-hearted. Tuesday July 21st sees a jump to 4ft on the morning and 5ft in the afternoon, but it's a short-period 6-second E windswell, and the onshore wind from the SE at 12-22 mph makes it lumpy and poor. That's more of a kite-surfing setup, really. By Wednesday July 22nd, things get serious. The swell hits 5ft in the morning and 8ft by the afternoon, with that E wind freshening to 19 mph and cross-on. Combined energy jumps to 884 (strong) – it's a lot of water moving, but the wind's ruining the surface. This is expert-only territory.

Then we hit the big one. From Thursday July 23rd through Saturday July 25th, we've got a solid 13ft to 15ft swell from the ENE-E, with a period of 10-11 seconds. The combined energy is massive – 2923 on Thursday, peaking at 8397 on Saturday morning. That's very strong wave energy. But the wind stays strong out of the east at 16-25 mph, cross-on, with rain showers. It'll be a washing machine. The swell is too big for beginners, and the onshore wind will turn it into a messy closeout. For a beach break like Tairua, with that short period, it's going to break straight and be a beast. Sunday the 26th keeps it large at 10ft to 12ft with onshore winds. Not a session for a normal board.

So, the standout? Honestly, if you're an expert and have a death wish, the sheer size on July 24th and 25th is something, but it's ugly. The best on offer, and I'm struggling here, is that first Saturday (July 11th) afternoon – clean waves at 3ft with a cross-off breeze. It's small, but it's the most surfable. Otherwise, this is a blank run of proper quality. It's normal for the area to have long gaps like this in winter, so don't sweat it. Forecasts change, but for now, it's a hard pass.

Rusty.

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