Waiwakaiho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Waiwakaiho all morning. Truth be told, this stretch of Coast in New Zealand is looking like a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks—there’s some serious size on the way, but the wind is going to be a stubborn bastard for most of it. The water temperature is sitting at 57°, which is right on the money for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a tough watch. From Wednesday the 2nd through to the end of that first week, nearly every session is blown out. We’ve got a big, powerful swell running—combined energy readings are well into the four-digit range, hitting 2486 on Wednesday morning and even climbing to 4107 by Saturday afternoon—but the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, and the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. That 10ft-plus swell on the weekend is intimidating, but with a fresh breeze and lumpy chop, it’s a write-off for a paddle. Honestly, if you’re into kiting, this setup might be more your speed than a surfboard.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Monday the 7th of September. Monday afternoon, the wind swings to a crisp SSE offshore at 30 km/h, and we’ve got 10ft of swell from the west with a 12-second period. The combined energy is a stout 3484, and the conditions are described as “fresh offshore and clean.” That’s a proper groundswell, and while the size is definitely for experienced surfers only—over 8ft, so leave the foamies at home—this is the standout of the first week. The break is a sandbar, so it might handle that long-period energy (12 seconds) okay, but keep an eye on the tide.

After that, we hit another dry spell. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th are messy again, but then Wednesday morning on the 9th is a cheeky little window. The wind drops to a glassy NE at 5 km/h, and we’ve got 7ft of swell from the WSW at 10 seconds. The combined energy is 1026, and the report says “expect very good surf conditions.” It’s not the biggest, but glassy conditions at a sandbar? That’s a treat. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have a few mates out, but it’s worth the early alarm.

The real standout of the whole 16-day window, though, is Saturday the 12th of September. Saturday morning, the wind is glassy again—NNE at 5 km/h—and we’ve got a solid 8ft of swell from the WSW, with a 17-second period. That’s a very long period groundswell, and the combined energy is 3296. The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the one to circle on the calendar. A long-period swell like this will be a bit tricky on a sandbar—it can break straight and close out—but if you know the bank, it’ll be memorable. Clean, glassy, and powerful.

After that, the second week fades pretty quickly. From Sunday the 13th onward, the wind turns cross-on or onshore again, and the swell drops off. There’s a flicker on Thursday the 17th afternoon with a clean cross-off wind and 6ft of swell, but it’s marginal at best. The first week has the real juice, so pick your moment.

Rusty.

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