Waiwakaiho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid 16-day window to look at for Waiwakaiho, and it’s a bit of a slow-burner with a couple of absolute crackers waiting for us.

The overall pattern is all about a big, long-period groundswell from the WSW that’s going to pulse through. The early part of the week is messy with cross-shore winds and choppy conditions, but we’ve got a really clean, glassy window coming up that’s the standout of the whole forecast. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Let’s get into it. The first real surfable option is on Wednesday the 15th of July. The swell is a solid 10ft from the WSW, but it’s a bit raw with a stiff onshore breeze. The combined energy is a meaty 4239, which is strong, but it’s not the cleanest.

The rest of the week (Thursday 16th through to Saturday 18th) is a write-off. The swell holds around 6ft to 8ft, but the wind is cross or cross-onshore, creating a choppy, lumpy mess. The combined energy drops from 2610 down to 1787, and it’s just not worth it. The forecast calls for rain showers and cloudy skies, nothing to get excited about.

Now, here’s the one you’ve been waiting for. Sunday the 19th of July is the prime day. The morning kicks off clean with a gentle offshore breeze from the SE, and the swell is 6ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period. The combined energy is a solid 1801. But the real magic is Sunday afternoon – it goes glassy, dead calm, with a 7ft swell from the same direction. The combined energy jumps to 2107. This is the standout. Conditions are described as “excellent” for experienced surfers. The swell is over 5ft, so it’s a bit much for beginners, but for anyone with a bit of time in the water, it’s absolute perfection. Waiwakaiho is a sandbar, fairly consistent, and it can get crowded sometimes, but on a day like this, it’s worth fighting for a spot. The swell direction is a perfect match for the optimum WSW.

Monday the 20th is still decent, with a cleaner 6ft swell in the morning and a light cross-offshore breeze, but the energy is dropping to 1083. Things then taper off through the middle of the week with smaller, weaker swells and poor wind.

We get another flicker of hope on Friday the 24th of July. The morning is glassy with a 5ft, 10-second period swell, and the combined energy is just 538. It’s a good option for a smaller wave, but it’s not the main event.

The second week looks promising again. Sunday the 26th of July sees a pulse of 6ft to 7ft swell from the WSW, with a 15-second period and a light cross-shore breeze. The energy is 1573 to 1799. It’s described as “marginal” but the numbers look good.

Then, Monday the 27th of July is another absolute beaut. The morning is clean with a light cross-offshore wind, and a 8ft, 16-second period groundswell. The combined energy is a powerful 2719. The afternoon goes glassy with a 7ft swell. This is another true standout – powerful, clean, and for experienced surfers only. The long period will make it set up perfectly at Waiwakaiho.

The final days (28th to 30th of July) are a mixed bag. There’s a big, lumpy, short-period swell on the 29th (13ft at 8 seconds, combined energy 2049) that’s more of a washing machine for experts. But Thursday the 30th of July closes out the window strong. The morning is clean with a 10ft, 13-second period swell from the WSW, and the combined energy is a massive 3054. The afternoon is glassy. This is a real, proper, powerful swell for the end of the 16-day window.

So, to sum it up: the absolute best on offer is Sunday afternoon the 19th of July – glassy, 7ft, long-period groundswell, perfect direction. The second standout is Monday morning the 27th of July – clean, powerful, and also glassy in the afternoon. Both are for experienced surfers. The rest is a waiting game for those windows of clean, offshore wind.

Rusty out.

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