Waiwakaiho Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a yarn about what’s ahead. The surf window opens Friday the 11th with a solid pulse of long-period groundswell, but it’s a tricky one—big, powerful, and needing the right timing. The rest of the run is a mixed bag of strong swells getting chewed up by wind, with a few clean windows for experienced crew. There’s a big gap of poor conditions from around Tuesday the 15th arvo right through until the morning of Thursday the 17th, so don’t bother paddling out in that stretch. The real standout lands way out on Wednesday the 23rd arvo, and there’s a proper monster swell on Thursday the 24th morning, but it’ll be too big for most.

Let’s start with Waiwakaiho (sandbar) – Friday morning, the 11th, kicks off with a 8ft WSW swell rolling in with a very long 19-second period and a combined energy of 5524 – that’s strong energy. The wind is light from the SSW at 6 mph, blowing cross-offshore, so the surface will be clean. The water temp is 57°, which is 1° above average – about normal for this time of year. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers, but at 8ft it’s pushing into expert territory, especially with sets likely. The long period means proper groundswell, so the sandbar might see some heavy, tapering walls – but it could be a bit straight for a beach break. Crowds can be around sometimes, but early morning with that size and period, you might have some room.

Friday afternoon goes pear-shaped – the wind swings to the WSW at 19 mph, cross, and it’ll get lumpy and chop. Swell holds at 8ft and 18 seconds but the quality drops fast. Saturday the 12th through to Monday the 14th is all cross-shore wind and messy conditions – plenty of swell (7ft to 15ft) but the wind is fresh and cross, making for bumpy, onshore-leaning junk. Not worth it.

Tuesday the 15th morning is a last chance for a small, clean-ish window – 5ft WSW swell at 14 seconds, light SW wind at 9 mph, cross. Combined energy is only 1100, so it’s moderate, weak energy. It’d be small and weak, but clean enough for a longboard or a mellow session. Afternoon goes to cross-on and chop, then the next few days are a write-off with onshore wind and poor quality.

Thursday the 17th morning brings back the goods – a 10ft WSW swell with 15-second period and 3499 combined energy (strong). Light SSW wind at 6 mph, cross-off, and clean. Again, 10ft is expert-only, but the setup is clean and powerful. This could be a gem for the crew who can handle it. Afternoon, a slight cross-on breeze creeps in, so hit the morning.

Friday the 18th morning is another clean shot – 7ft WSW, 16 seconds, 3613 energy, with a gentle S wind at 9 mph cross-off. That’s excellent for experienced surfers, and a bit more manageable than the 10ft days. Afternoon gets ruined by fresh cross-wind again.

Then from Saturday the 19th arvo through to Tuesday the 22nd, it’s pretty average – cross and cross-on winds, lumpy conditions, with the odd bit of size (15ft on Tuesday morning) but never clean.

Now, the real standout is Wednesday the 23rd afternoon. The swell is 10ft from the W with 13-second period, combined energy 4429 – strong. The wind swings to SSE at 12 mph, offshore, and the conditions are clean. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – the offshore wind will groom those W swells into clean, lined-up waves at Waiwakaiho. This is your best bet of the whole run. Crowds are sometimes, but with that quality, expect a few out.

Thursday the 24th morning sees a massive 18ft WSW swell with 14-second period and 10953 combined energy – that’s very strong wave energy. But the forecast says the swell is too big for this break, even for experts. The wind is light from the NE at 3 mph, cross, but that size is dangerous and unruly. Steer clear unless you’re a tow-in pro.

After that, the rest of the period fades into cross-on slop and smaller, choppy surf. Not much to get excited about.

So, if you’re keen, hit Friday 11th morning for the first punch, but the true highlight is Wednesday 23rd afternoon – that offshore wind and solid groundswell will be magic. Be ready early for Thursday 17th morning too. Everything else is a gamble with the wind.

Rusty.

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