Mount Maunganui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been watching this stretch of coast for a long time. Let’s be real – the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off for anything decent around here. The first real surf worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until 22 July, and even then, it’s only for the big‑dog crew. So, we’ve got a solid gap of ten days with next to nothing on offer.

For the first week, from 12 July through to 21 July, it’s pretty grim. Tiny, weak swell – mostly 0.3 ft to 3 ft – with short periods and the combined energy barely making it to double digits (as low as 3 on the 13th). The wind is all over the place, but none of it’s helping. Even when it goes glassy, like on Tuesday afternoon the 14th with a 3 ft swell from the north (period 6 seconds, energy 67), the conditions are called “surfable waves but very ordinary.” That’s about as good as it gets until the 22nd. There’s a bump on 21 July with 6 ft to 8 ft from the ENE, but the wind is a messy cross‑shore at 12 mph, and the setup is just not working. That’s more for the kite crew than paddle surfers.

Now, the standout. On Wednesday 22 July into Thursday 23 July, we finally get some proper groundswell. The swell jumps to 15 ft from the NE on the 22nd with a very long period of 12 seconds, and the combined energy rockets to 5497. That’s strong to very strong. But here’s the catch – at that size, this break is only for experienced surfers. The wind is a clean offshore from the south at 9 mph, so those waves will be groomed, but 15 ft is too big for beginners. By Thursday morning the 23rd, the swell drops to 10 ft from the ENE, still with an 11‑second period, offshore wind from the SW, and the energy is still hefty at 2280. The file says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and that’s the call. This is the best of the lot, but only if you’ve got the skills.

Beyond that, Friday 24 July and Saturday 25 July still have decent swell – 8 ft and 5 ft from the ENE – with clean winds and periods around 11 to 12 seconds, but the conditions are more “marginal” or “good” rather than epic. The 27 July looks promising with 6 ft from the ENE, a 13‑second period, and glassy conditions, but that’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

The water temp is sitting at 58°F on the 12th, which is about 1°F cooler than average for this time of year – nothing too unusual, just a bit nippy.

So, if you’re an expert, get ready for the 22nd and 23rd. For everyone else, wait and see if the 27th firms up.

Rusty

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