Mount Maunganui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for your neck of the woods. Alright, let’s be straight with each other – the next 16 days are a proper struggle. There’s a massive gap at the start here with absolutely nothing worth paddling out for. From Wednesday the 9th right through to the end of the week, we’re looking at flat, weak, or messy dribble. The combined swell energy is barely ticking over, mostly in the 30 to 60 range (weak) – that’s barely enough to tickle a longboard. You’d be better off drinking coffee and watching the tide go in and out.

The first real glimpse of anything surfable doesn’t show up until Friday morning, the 11th. Even then, it’s ordinary. The swell at Mount Maunganui is a tiny 1ft from the NE, with a period of 13 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell, but there’s just no size to it. The combined energy climbs to 112 (moderate), so you can feel it moving, but the wave comment says it all: “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Wind is offshore from the S at 10 mph, which will keep the faces clean, so if you’re desperate for a stretch and a bump, you could go for a splash. But honestly, don’t expect any juice.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. Saturday the 12th has a glassy afternoon with 1ft from the NE – that’s the kind of flat you’d only ride if you’d forgotten your keys and needed an excuse to be in the water. The whole week following is a write-off: tiny swell, cross-off winds, and combined energy numbers sinking into the teens and twenties. It’s a desert.

Then we get a little spike – and I mean a little – around Wednesday the 16th. The morning shows 5ft from the NW, but with a terrible period of 5 seconds. That’s windswell, bumpy, and messy. The wind is a strong cross-off from the WSW at 16 mph, and the combined energy is 131 (moderate), but the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” That’s a day for kites, not paddles – the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The real standout – and I’m using the term loosely – is Sunday the 20th. The morning brings 6ft from the NNW at 8 seconds, with combined energy up to 453 (strong). That’s the most power we’ll see in this whole run. But the wind is a fresh cross-off from the WNW at 19 mph, and the wave comment is again “poor surf conditions.” The swell is over 5ft, so it’s too big for beginners, and the period is short, so it’ll feel lumpy. This is not a polished day. It’s a grunt. If you’re an expert and you’ve got a step-up, you might find some pushy, ugly waves, but don’t expect a classic.

There’s no other standout. The water temperature anomaly isn’t given, so it’s about average for this time of year.

To sum it up: there’s a long blank stretch from the 9th to the 10th, then a tiny, ordinary session on the morning of the 11th, then another gap until the 16th, which is messy, and then the 20th is the biggest but roughest day. The best on offer is that Sunday the 20th morning – 6ft from the NNW, but rough and wind-blown. If you’re feeling tough, you’ll go. If you’re after silky lines, you’ll wait for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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