Mount Maunganui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next two weeks around Mount Maunganui are looking pretty grim for quality waves. We’ve got a long, quiet stretch ahead, but there’s a small window of hope if you’re patient and don’t mind a bit of size.

The overall pattern is one of tiny, weak swell with either cross-offshore breezes or periods of stronger wind and chop. There’s a big gap of nothing worth paddling for from now all the way through the first weekend. The first real sniff of action doesn’t show up until Monday, September 7th, but even that’s a false start with a messy, short-period 4 ft from the north (6 seconds) and cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is only 94 (marginal), so you’re better off sleeping in.

Then on Monday afternoon, something shifts. A 7 ft north-northwest swell rolls in with a period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy cranks up to 700 (moderate). The wind goes light and cross-shore, but the surf is just marginal. That’s a lot of water moving around, but the short period means it’s going to be a bit fat and unruly. This is more of a fun paddle for experienced surfers – *not* for beginners (7 ft is over the 5 ft mark). The breaks here are pretty exposed, so it’ll be lumpy.

The standout, and really the only day I’d circle on the calendar, is Tuesday morning, September 8th. The swell drops to a cleaner 5 ft from the north, with an 8-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 321 (moderate). The magic is in the wind – a light 6 mph westerly, which is cross-offshore. That’s going to keep the face clean at Mount Maunganui. The swell direction is from the north, which is about as close to the optimum NNE as you’ll get here. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy. Expect some crowds, as it’s a popular spot, but for a Tuesday morning you might snag a few. This is the best bet of the whole run.

After that, Tuesday afternoon holds 4 ft but the quality drops to ordinary. From Wednesday the 9th onwards, it’s back to tiny, weak waves – 2 ft, 2 ft, then falling to 1.0 ft and 0.7 ft for the second week. The wind stays mostly cross-offshore, but there’s just no energy. The combined energy readings are all in the double digits or low triple digits (as low as 8), which is weak. The second week from September 11th to the 20th is a write-off for paddling. The swell is tiny, the period is often long (12-13 seconds) but the waves are too small to do anything with. On the 13th, you get a rare offshore wind from the SSW, but with only 2 ft from the NNW, it’s just a clean but flat pond.

The long-range stuff is a promise that never delivers. Nothing to get excited about until the very end, and even then it’s just 3 ft to 2 ft.

So, in short: if you’re a beginner, this is a two-week skip. For the experienced crew, Tuesday morning, September 8th at Mount Maunganui is your only real shot. It’s not epic, but it’s clean and has enough push. The rest is a flat spell. It’s one of those runs where the forecast can change, so don’t lose hope, but right now, it’s looking like a long stretch of small, ordinary surf.

Rusty.

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