Whakatane Heads Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you—this forecast for the next fortnight is a real test of patience. We’ve got a long, frustrating dry spell before anything worth paddling out for shows up. The first decent swell isn’t until July 25th, so we’re looking at a solid week of flat, small, and uninspiring conditions. After that, the real action doesn’t kick in until the first week of August.

The first few days are a write-off. From Wednesday morning the 22nd through to Friday the 24th, we’re dealing with tiny waves—0.3 ft to 1 ft from the north or east-northeast. The energy is pitiful, with combined swell energies scraping between 1 and 36 (weak). The wind is off or glassy at times, but with waves that small, you’d be better off taking the dog for a walk.

We get a bit of a pulse on Saturday morning, July 25th. Whakatane Heads sees a jump to 6 ft from the northwest, with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy hits 577 (moderate to strong), but the wind is cross-shore and messy, with rain showers. It’s a marginal call. The afternoon cleans up with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell drops to 5 ft. This one’s for the advanced crew only—at over 5 ft, it’s too much for beginners. The swell direction (NNW) is on the money for the optimum (NNE) but not a perfect match. Honestly, it’s a bit of a gamble.

Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th are back to small, weak surf—1 ft to 3 ft—with clean offshore winds, but the energy is weak (25 to 52). Not worth a special trip.

Then we hit another dead zone. From Tuesday the 28th through to Thursday the 31st of July, the best we get is 3 ft with a 4-second period, which is just slop. The combined energy stays below 100 (weak). The conditions are clean, but there’s nothing to ride.

The first real standout comes on Friday, July 31st. Both morning and afternoon deliver 4 ft from the west-northwest with a 5- to 6-second period. The combined energy is 90 to 114 (moderate). The morning has a light cross-offshore breeze, and the afternoon goes glassy. This is surfable, but it’s ordinary—good for a paddle if you’re desperate.

But the real prize arrives on Wednesday, August 5th. The afternoon sees a jump to 8 ft from the north with a 7-second period, and an energy reading of 657 (strong). The wind is light onshore, so it’s messy, but the size is there. This is expert-only territory—over 8 ft would be pushing it, but 8 ft is still a heavy paddle for most.

The highlight of the entire forecast is Thursday morning, August 6th. Whakatane Heads is firing with 6 ft from the north, a 9-second period, and a combined energy of 636 (strong). The wind is offshore and light, making for clean, powerful waves. The swell direction (north) is close to the optimum (NNE), so it’s lining up well. This is a solid groundswell, and the longer period (9 seconds) means better shaped waves. The water temperature is 57°, which is about 2 degrees colder than average for this time of year—a bit nippy, but you’ll be alright in a 4/3. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have company, but it won’t be a circus. This is the one to aim for. The afternoon on the 6th drops to 6 ft with a light cross-onshore wind, which puts a bit of ripple on the face, but it’s still a good session.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a bust. July 25th offers a brief, messy shot for the advanced crew. July 31st is a small, clean option. But the clear standouts are Wednesday afternoon August 5th (big, messy) and Thursday morning August 6th (clean, powerful, and the best of the lot). If you’re patient, it’ll pay off. Keep an eye on the forecasts—things can change.

Rusty.

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