Whakatane Heads Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next two and a half weeks around Whakatane Heads are shaping up as a pretty lean stretch. There’s nothing worth getting excited about for days on end, and honestly, the first real surf worth paddling for is well off in the distance. We’ll start with the pattern, then walk through it.

The forecast kicks off on Thursday morning, 11 September, but don’t get your hopes up. We’ve got just 1ft of weak, short-period NE swell (58 combined energy) with a southerly breeze keeping things clean. But the waves are tiny and lacking any punch – that’s poor surf conditions, no two ways about it. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about 1° cooler than average for this time of year, so nothing wild, just a touch nippy if you’re not used to it.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday – same story. Day after day of 0.7ft to 1ft NE slop, often with onshore or cross-onshore winds. The odd glassy or cross-off moment pops up, like Saturday morning the 13th, but you’re still looking at 1ft and 59 combined energy. That’s not surf, that’s a paddle. For the entire first week and a half, there is genuinely nothing that qualifies as a recommendation. Expect a solid gap of around 12 days with no worthwhile surf to chase.

Now, late in the run we do finally see a little pulse. On Thursday morning, 24 September, we get a jump to 5ft from the NNW with a period of 8 seconds and the combined energy reading 267 – that’s moderate energy, actually the biggest push in the whole window. The best part? The wind is glassy southwest at just 3 mph. That’s “expect good surf conditions” territory, and for Whakatane Heads, that morning is the single standout option in this entire 16-day period. The swell direction is NNW, and the optimum swell direction for this break is NNE – it’s not a perfect match, but it’s close enough and with glassy conditions, the quality should be decent. Heads up, though: at 5ft it’s getting a bit much for beginners, so experienced surfers will have the best time. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s a shortish windswell, not a long groundswell, so expect waves that are a little more crumbly and frequent, but still fun.

The afternoon of the 24th goes cross-onshore and drops off, and after that, Friday and Saturday are back to tiny 0.3ft flatness. So if you’re hanging for a wave, your window is that Thursday morning, and nowhere else in the outlook.

Signing off, Rusty.

Read more