Whakatane Heads Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up—this 16-day window for Whakatane Heads is a tough one. The swell is all over the place, mostly small and messy, and the wind doesn’t do us many favours. It’s a long stretch with very little to get excited about. There are a few moments that might flicker to life, but honestly, this is one of those periods where you’ll be checking the forecast every day hoping for a change. The water’s sitting at 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—about 3°F below average—so you’ll want a good thick steamer if you’re heading out.

Let’s break it down day by day. We start on Monday, August 24th, with a tiny 2ft NW swell and a period of just 6 seconds. It’s cross-off with a light SSW breeze, so it’s clean, but the energy is weak (44) and the waves are just too small and weak to paddle for. Nothing doing. Through Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of that first week, it’s the same story—tiny bumps in the 0.3ft to 2ft range, mostly clean with light winds, but the combined energy never cracks 23. You’re looking at a total blank run for the first five days.

Friday the 28th picks up a little to a 3ft NNW swell, but the onshore wind picks up to 12 mph in the afternoon, making it lumpy and unappealing. Saturday the 29th sees the swell jump to 5ft from the NNW in the morning (163 energy – moderate), but again, cross-onshore winds and rain make for poor conditions. The afternoon drops a bit to 4ft but still no quality. Sunday the 30th is the first real flicker—2ft from the NNE with a clean cross-off breeze. The comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” and a score of 1. It’s tiny, but it’s the best we’ve seen.

The following week starts with a bit of a pulse on Monday the 31st: a 3ft W swell in the morning (77 energy), clean with a cross-off wind. Not great, but the swell is there. Tuesday September 1st has a 2ft NE swell with a 10-second period and 62 energy—still small, but the longer period gives it a bit more shape. Again, “surfable but ordinary.” The rest of the first week of September is a write-off—strong winds (up to 22 mph) and choppy, lumpy conditions with the swell staying under 5ft.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On the far horizon, Saturday September 5th—that’s over a week away—we see a stand-out early morning. The forecast shows a 6ft NNW swell with a 7-second period, and the combined energy hits 387 (strong). The wind is glassy from the SSW in the morning, and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions” with a score of 2. This is the best on offer in the whole outlook. The swell is a bit short period (7 seconds) for a groundswell, so it’s more of a short-period fetch, but at 6ft it’s solid and will be pushing through. The glassy wind means it’ll be clean—like glass. Keep in mind, 6ft is getting into the range that might be too much for beginners, but for advanced surfers, it’s a solid morning. The only catch: the afternoon turns cross-on with a NW breeze, so the window is small.

Sunday September 6th has a 4ft NW swell with a clean offshore wind in the morning (score 1), but it drops off quick. The rest of the second week is back to tiny, weak swells and mostly poor conditions.

So, if you’re holding out for something, that Saturday September 5th morning is the standout. It’s promising, but it’s long-range—so don’t book your flights just yet. The crowds at Whakatane Heads can pop up sometimes, so if that morning looks good, you might have company.

Rusty.

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