Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s the surf outlook for Raglan-Manu Bay. Let’s get into it.

We’re looking at a pretty mixed bag over the next 16 days, but there’s a couple of windows that’ll get the heart racing. The water’s sitting at 56.8°—right on the money for this time of year, no anomalies to worry about.

First up, Thursday the 27th of August. It’s a bit of a slow starter. Morning has some clouds with a light NE breeze, 3 mph, cross, and we’ve got a 5.2 ft swell from the WSW at 13 seconds. Combined energy is moderate at 841. It’s not clean, but it’s not terrible either—just a bit marginal. The afternoon sees a NW wind, 6 mph, onshore, with the swell dropping to 4.9 ft. Honestly, it’s a bit of a write-off for quality.

Friday the 28th is a dud. Cloudy, NNE wind kicking up to 12 mph, cross-shore and choppy. Swell’s still around 4.9 ft from the WNW, but the period’s dropped to 8–9 seconds, and the energy’s weak at 539–562. This is one of those days you stay home.

Saturday the 29th has a flicker of hope. Early morning, heavy rain, but the wind swings ESE at 6 mph, cross-offshore, and the swell is 3.9 ft from the WNW at 8 seconds. Energy’s low at 366, but with that clean wind, it’s the best we’ve seen in a while—just tiny. The afternoon turns messy with SSW wind at 16 mph.

Sunday the 30th gets big but ugly. WSW wind at 19–22 mph, cross to cross-on, and the swell jumps to 7.2–7.5 ft from the WSW at a long 17–18 seconds. Energy’s strong at 2955–3216, but the wind is fresh and lumpy. This is expert territory, and even then, it’s a battle.

Monday the 31st through to Wednesday the 2nd of September—big numbers, bad conditions. Swell sits at 7.2 ft to 11.5 ft, with periods 13–15 seconds, and energy through the roof (2174–5801). But the wind is relentless from the WSW or WNW, 12–22 mph, cross-on or cross. It’s heavy, lumpy, and only for the brave or the kites. For kite surfing, this setup is actually interesting—steady wind, solid swell. For paddle surfing, it’s a no-go.

Thursday the 3rd of September, the swell drops to 3.9 ft (WSW, 15 seconds) but the wind is still onshore, 16 mph. Energy’s moderate at 1198, but the conditions are poor. The afternoon spikes to 8.2 ft from the W at 10 seconds, but it’s onshore again.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th of September: onshore winds from the NW, 12–16 mph, with 8.2 ft to 5.9 ft swell. Energy’s strong (1447–3647), but the wind’s on the nose. Not happening.

Sunday the 6th of September: big swell again, 11.5 ft from the WNW at 11 seconds, energy 4227–4301, but NNW wind at 16–19 mph, onshore and choppy. Expert only, and even then, not great.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Monday the 7th of September, the wind shifts to SW at 19 mph, cross, with 9.8 ft swell from the W at 14 seconds. Energy’s 3361. It’s marginal, but the cross-shore wind is a sign of change.

Tuesday the 8th of September is a standout. Morning: clear skies, SSW wind at 16 mph, cross-offshore, 11.5 ft from the W at 14 seconds. Energy’s 5077. Afternoon gets even better: SW wind drops to 9 mph, gentle cross, with a 13.1 ft swell from the W at 16 seconds—very long period groundswell. Energy’s massive at 8145. This is a point break, so that long period will work beautifully, wrapping in with power. But at 13.1 ft, it’s only for advanced surfers. Crowds are possible at Manu Bay, so get in early.

Wednesday the 9th of September is

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