Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here with a look at the next couple of weeks.

We’re focusing on the classic left-hander, Raglan-Manu Bay. It’s a point break, so it handles a good bit of swell, and the optimum direction is from the southwest. The water is sitting at 56.5°F – pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so just your usual wetsuit.

The forecast kicks off with a bit of a letdown this Saturday morning. There’s a small 2.6ft swell from the west, but the wind is a light cross-offshore from the northeast, so it’s clean. The energy is pretty weak though (147), so a fun little board but nothing to get excited about. Saturday afternoon is a write-off with a cross-shore wind messing things up.

Sunday the 9th sees a jump in size, with 7.2ft out of the west-northwest on the morning session, but the wind is a cross-shore from the north-northeast at 9 mph, and there’s that "marginal" tag with light rain. The energy is ramping up (1335), but it’s not clean. The cross-shore wind will make it lumpy. Sunday afternoon is similar with a cross-onshore wind. Not the best.

Monday the 10th drops back down to 2.6ft to 3.6ft. The swell direction shifts to the west-southwest, but the period is a very long 16 seconds. That long period groundswell is what points like Manu Bay love, but the cross-shore wind from the west-southwest at 9 mph is putting a bit of a chop on it. The energy is moderate (682-747). It’s a marginal call, but the potential is there for a few lined-up runners if you can find a clean section.

Now, Tuesday the 11th is where it starts to get interesting. The morning has a 3.3ft west-southwest swell with a nice 14-second period, and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the east. That’s clean. The energy is moderate (477). But the real standout is Tuesday afternoon. It drops to 3.0ft, but the wind goes glassy – that’s a dead-calm, zero wind situation. The period is a solid 13 seconds. That’s the window for the most perfect, peelable Manu Bay you’ll see. It’s going to be clean as a whistle and tapering off. The crowds are "sometimes" here, so you might have company, but for that quality, it’s worth it.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th are a write-off. The swell is tiny (2.0ft to 2.3ft) and the wind is howling from the east-northeast. Even though it’s cross-off, the moderate breeze is just too much for the small swell. The energy is low (220-486). Forget it.

Friday the 14th morning is a glimmer of hope. The 2.6ft west-southwest swell is back with a 16-second period, and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the east-northeast again. The energy is moderate (632). It’s a clean, small day. Friday afternoon gets a bit choppy with a cross-onshore wind.

Then we get into the big stuff. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th. This is not for the faint of heart. Saturday sees 9.8ft from the west, and Sunday sees 13.1ft from the west-southwest with a massive 19-second period. The energy is extreme (3379 to 9836). But the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the southwest at 19 mph. That’s a lumpy, nasty, cross-chop. For a point break like Manu Bay, that’s going to be a washing machine. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The 13.1ft swell on Sunday morning is the biggest of the whole forecast, but it’s not going to be a pretty wave.

Monday the 17th drops to 6.6ft to 8.2ft, but the wind is still a strong cross-shore from the southwest. Still messy. Tuesday the 18th is similar with a 9.8ft swell and a short period of 9 seconds on the afternoon

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