Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of south-west swell lining up for the next couple of weeks, but it’s a mixed bag for quality. The standout window is definitely the first week, with a few sessions that’ll have you frothing, but after that, the wind turns ugly and we’re looking at a lot of onshore chop.

Kicking off on Monday the 7th of September, it’s a bit of a tease. We’ve got a pumping 7ft groundswell from the WSW with a very long 16-second period, giving a massive energy reading of 2708. But unfortunately, that strong 15 mph NNW wind is straight onshore, so Manu Bay (Raglan-Manu-Bay) is messy and marginal. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild. Not the day for it.

Tuesday the 8th, the swell drops a bit but the wind still has cross-off or cross in it, and the scores are low. We’re looking at a gap here – no real quality until Wednesday the 9th.

And that Wednesday the 9th is the moment. The morning session is a beauty. A clean, glassy 4ft swell from the WSW with an 11-second period, and the wind is a dead calm 3 mph from the east. That’s as good as it gets for clean walls at Manu Bay. The energy is moderate at 375, but the conditions will make every wave count. Light crowds possible, but with conditions like this, it’s worth the company.

Thursday the 10th is a write-off – strong onshore wind and poor conditions. Friday the 11th, the swell jumps up to 8ft with a super long 18-second period, energy is huge at 4031. Morning has a clean cross-off wind from the SSW, so it could be a solid, powerful session for advanced surfers. Afternoon, that wind swings and the swell hits 12ft with lumpy chop – not for the faint-hearted.

Saturday the 12th, the swell hangs in around 13ft, but the wind is strong cross-shore and messy. It’s a big, powerful beast, and for most, it’ll be too much. Only experts should even think about it, and then only with caution.

Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th, the swell eases slowly, but the wind stays cross or cross-off. Afternoon Sunday has some clear skies and a 10ft swell, but the cross-shore wind makes it lumpy. Monday morning is the cleaner option with a 8ft swell and a light wind, but the energy is still strong at 2581.

From Tuesday the 15th onwards, we’re into a long stretch of onshore and cross-onshore winds. The swell sticks around, but it’s blown out. The best of a bad lot is Wednesday the 16th morning, with a 7ft swell and clean cross-off wind, but it’s fading. The following week, from Thursday the 17th right through to Tuesday the 22nd, is mostly poor with onshore wind and messy conditions. The energy drops off after the 19th, and by the 21st and 22nd, we’re looking at small, weak and choppy surf. Not worth paddling out for.

So, the one and only true standout is Wednesday the 9th of September, morning session at Manu Bay. Glassy, clean, and fun. If you’re feeling froggy, Friday the 11th morning offers some big, powerful lines if you’ve got the skill. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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