Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Right, let’s have a yarn about what’s shaping up for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with some solid groundswell on the way, but the wind is going to be a real pain for most of it. The water temperature is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real window of opportunity looks like Saturday morning, 29 August. Now, don’t get too excited, but it’s the only real morning in the first week that’s worth a look. We’ve got a 4ft swell rolling in from the WSW, with a period of 11 seconds. The real kicker here is the wind – it’s glassy, dead flat. That’s always a massive positive because it’ll be pure, clean glass. The combined energy is moderate (578). It’s not a big day, but for a quiet paddle on a clean face, it’s your best bet. The crowds can be a thing here sometimes, so if you’re after a solo session, get in early.

After that, Sunday the 30th turns ugly. The wind cranks up to 19 mph from the W, and the swell jumps to 8ft from the same direction, but it’s a messy, lumpy cross-onshore. The combined energy jumps to strong (3354). That’s a big, raw ocean, but it’s not for surfing. For kite surfers though, that’s proper juice.

Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September see a massive 13ft and 10ft swell from the WSW, with periods around 14 seconds. The energy is very strong (5411, 5224, 3879). But the wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it’s lumpy, messy, and only for very experienced, strong paddlers. The wave quality is poor for a point break when it’s that fat and choppy. We’re looking at over 8ft, so it’s expert-only territory.

There’s a big gap of poor conditions through the first week of September. The wind stays strong, often over 19 mph, and the swell is either too big or too messy. It’s a real dry spell until Thursday the 10th of September.

Now, mark your calendar for Thursday morning, 10 September. This is the standout. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the WSW, with a period of 13 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate (1398). But the wind is glassy again, from the NNE at only 3 mph. That’s a game-changer. For a point break like Manu Bay, a long-period swell like that can really line up, offering long, clean walls. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The crowds are a factor here though, as it’s a famous spot, and with that wind and swell, it’ll be busy. If you can get out there, this is the one.

The afternoon of the 10th gets messy with an onshore wind, so don’t sleep in.

So, the short version: Saturday 29th morning for a clean, small day, and Thursday 10th September morning for the proper, clean, groundswell session. The rest is blown out, too big, or both. Stay patient, and that Thursday morning will be worth the wait.

Rusty.

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