Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what the ocean’s got lined up for us over the next couple of weeks. The window starts a bit shaky, with the first few days offering nothing that’ll get you out of bed early. We’ve got some solid groundswell building in the middle of the run, but the wind’s going to be the main character in this story, and it’s not always going to be kind.

The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird there. You’ll still want the wettie and booties, no question.

The opening days are a write-off, honestly. Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are looking marginal at best, with a gentle cross-shore breeze messing up the surface of a small 5ft WSW swell. It’s chop, not surf. Forget it. The weekend gets worse before it gets better. Saturday the 22nd drops right off, and Sunday the 23rd sees a jump in size but it comes with a strong onshore breeze and some rain. That’s a messy 8ft to 12ft of wind-blown slop. That’s not for us, that’s for the kite crew. The energy is ramping up though – we’re looking at moderate energy on Saturday (242) building to strong energy on Sunday (1145-1914). It’s just not rideable.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Monday the 24th of August, the ocean decides to wake up. A proper long-period WSW groundswell at 12ft with a 16-second period rolls in. The energy reading is massive – 5409 – that’s strong to very strong. But the wind is still cross-shore, which is going to put a bit of a chop on Manu Bay (Raglan). The size is pushing into expert-only territory. This is powerful, heavy water. Only for the experienced crew. The swell direction is solidly WSW, which is right in the sweet spot for the point. It’s a standout for power, but you need to know what you’re doing.

The middle of the week settles down into the 6-8ft range, but the breeze stays a bit annoying. It’s not until Thursday the 27th that we get a proper window. The swell drops back to 6ft from the W, and we finally get some clean conditions. Thursday morning the wind goes light ENE, giving us a clean cross-off. The energy is still solid at 1233 (moderate). That’s your first real stand-out. It’s still a good size for a point break, consistent and with some push. This is the one to circle. The afternoon stays clean but goes a little onshore, so get in early.

Friday the 28th is a tease; the morning is clean but the swell is dropping and the period shortens up to 8 seconds, which is a bit junky. Then the wind swings north and builds, making a mess of things by the afternoon. The weekend of the 29th and 30th is pretty average. There’s a spike back up to 8ft on Saturday, but the wind is onshore and it’s raining – that’s a hard pass. The energy is strong (1598), but it’s gonna be lumpy.

The first week of September looks like a bit of a reset. There’s a poor run of small, onshore waves and some stormy conditions. But hold on, because the long-range charts are showing something special. The forecast for Thursday the 3rd of September is a beauty. It’s predicting a glassy morning with a 10ft W swell and the wind goes totally calm. The energy reading is a solid 1715 (moderate). This is a classic autumn-style pulse. The swell direction is WNW, which is a little different from the optimal WSW, but the clean, glassy conditions are going to make Manu Bay fire. This is another standout, but it’s over a week out, so treat it as promising, not a guarantee. The following Friday the 4th also looks clean with a cross-off breeze and an 8ft WSW swell, but the period is only 11 seconds, so not quite as powerful.

So, to wrap it up: the next couple of weeks are a game of patience. The first few days are a complete washout. The clear winner is the clean morning surf on Thursday the 27th of August. The other big one for the experts is the heavy 12ft groundswell on Monday the 24th. And keep an eye on that glassy session on Thursday the 3rd of September – it’s got the potential to be the pick of the bunch, but it’s a long way off.

Stay safe, read the rips, and I’ll see you out there.

Rusty

Read more