Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up for Manu Bay. We’ve got some real potential in the mix, especially if you’re an experienced surfer, but the first week’s going to take some patience.

The week kicks off with a decent-sized, long-period swell from the WSW pushing through, but the wind’s not doing us any favours. Tuesday the 25th is a write-off – lumpy and cross, with 8ft of swell (combined energy of 2482 – moderate to strong energy). You’d be fighting a cross-chop and the forecast is grim. Wednesday the 26th is only slightly better; still cross-on and choppy, with 6ft swell.

Now, Thursday the 27th morning is where things get interesting. Glassy conditions, light wind from the north – that’s the kind of morning you want. Swell drops to 6ft (combined energy 946 – moderate), but the glassy, clean surface makes it look pretty good. The tide could be a factor, but for a point break, that long 13-second period will push in nicely. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so get in early.

Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th are messy – cross-on winds and poor quality. But Saturday afternoon saves the day. Glass again, with 6ft of clean, long-period swell from the WSW (combined energy 974 – moderate). That’s a solid window for a wave.

Sunday the 30th is small and blown out. Tiny 3ft with cross-on winds. Not worth it.

Now, hold onto your board. Monday the 31st of August, we get a big pulse. First light sees a clean, cross-off breeze with a massive 13ft of WSW groundswell (combined energy 4483 – very strong). That’s expert territory – too big for beginners, but for those with the skill, this is the standout of the whole forecast. The morning session is the call; the afternoon gets a cross-shore chop.

Tuesday the 1st of September keeps the swell going at 10ft (combined energy 3752 – very strong), but the cross-wind adds some texture. Still, a rewarding paddle for experienced crew.

The middle of the week (2nd and 3rd September) gets windy and messy, but then Thursday the 3rd morning brings a clean offshore from the SE, with 5ft swell (combined energy 1200 – moderate) and 15-second period. That’s a classic Manu Bay morning.

The second week looks more inconsistent and smaller, with a few flashes of clean, cross-off winds. Saturday the 5th is marginal. Sunday the 6th has clean conditions but modest 6ft swell. Monday the 7th afternoon, however, is another standout: a clean, glassy offshore with a 10ft, 17-second groundswell (combined energy 5740 – very strong). That’s for experts only, but the potential is huge.

Tuesday the 8th of September also looks big and clean in the morning: 12ft at 17 seconds (combined energy 6424 – very strong), with a cross-off breeze. Again, experts only, and promising but it’s a way off so keep an eye on it.

The water temp is sitting around 57°F, which is bang on average for this time of year – no surprises there.

Overall, the standout mornings are Monday the 31st of August, and Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th of September for the big, clean groundswell. For the rest of us, Thursday the 27th morning and Saturday the 29th afternoon are your best bets for some clean, fun waves.

Rusty.

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