Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve got a ripper of a run coming up at Manu Bay, starting tomorrow and stretching across a good chunk of the next week or so. This is a classic point break setup, so when the groundswell lines up, it’s pure magic.

The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is bang on normal for this time of year—nothing wild there, just your standard winter chill.

The real action kicks off Friday morning, July 10th, with a solid 7ft WSW groundswell rolling in, packing a very long period of 18 seconds. The combined energy is massive (2330), so you’ll feel that deep ocean pulse. The wind is a light 6 mph S breeze, cross-off, keeping things clean. This is advanced territory, but for the experienced crew, it’s going to be absolutely unreal. That long period groundswell is perfect for a point like Manu Bay—it’ll wrap in with serious shape, and the long gaps between sets will make the paddle out a breeze. On Friday afternoon, it drops a touch to 6ft, still clean and cross-off, with great energy (1674).

Saturday morning, July 11th, the swell eases to 5ft, but the period is still a solid 15 seconds, and the wind is a light 3 mph E cross-off—clean and inviting. Then Saturday afternoon gets glassy with a 3 mph SSW wind, and the swell sits at 4ft. That’s the kind of smooth, forgiving session you dream about. The energy is still strong (1132).

Sunday, July 12th, is a cracker. Mornings bring 5ft at 16 seconds with a light 6 mph E breeze, and then Sunday afternoon turns *dead flat calm*—zero wind, glassy as a mirror, with 5ft of clean, long-period groundswell (914 energy). This is the standout of the whole run. The conditions are pristine, and the crowd factor is there, so expect some company, but for a point like this, it’s worth it.

Monday, July 13th, the swell drops to 4ft, still clean with a light 9 mph ENE breeze, but the energy is lower (478). It’s still surfable, just not the highlight.

We’ve got a few days of messy, marginal stuff from Tuesday, July 14th, through to the end of that week. The wind swings around, periods drop, and there’s a bit of chop. The energy dives, and it’s just not worth the paddle. Then things get interesting again.

Saturday, July 18th, the morning turns glassy again with a light 3 mph SSE breeze and a 5ft WSW swell at 14 seconds (825 energy). That’s clean and fun. Sunday, July 19th morning, is a real standout: 6ft at 16 seconds, with a light 3 mph ENE cross-off breeze. The energy is pumping (1571), and the quality is back up for the experienced crew. Clean, powerful, and long walls.

After that, the run carries on through the 20th and 21st with clean, glassy afternoons and solid 5ft to 6ft swells. The wind is mostly light or offshore, keeping the face smooth. The energy declines a bit, but it’s still good surf.

Then, from around July 22nd, things start to fade. The swell drops to 4ft and below, the wind picks up onshore, and by the 24th and 25th, we’re looking at tiny, messy waves with combined energy down in the 60s and 70s. That’s a proper flat spell, and it’ll last for a few days at least.

So, the best on offer is clearly Sunday, July 12th afternoon with that glassy, 5ft groundswell, and Sunday, July 19th morning with the 6ft clean, powerful swell. Those are the ones you mark on the calendar.

Rusty.

Read more