Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s coming up for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The surf kicks off on Tuesday the 18th, but honestly, it’s just not happening yet. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year. We’re looking at a few days of so-so conditions with cross-off and cross-onshore winds messing with things. The swell is there, but it’s not clean. The energy is moderate (889) on Tuesday, bumping up through Wednesday, but the wind just isn’t playing ball.

The first real standout I’m getting excited about is Thursday morning, the 20th, at Manu Bay. It’s not the biggest swell—about 5ft from the WSW—but the wind is glassy, and that’s a massive positive. The swell period is a solid 14 seconds, so you’ll get some nice, lined-up waves. The energy is moderate (956) and it’s going to be clean. This is a great window for anyone who wants to get out without the crowd or the hassle. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

The pattern gets a bit sloppy from Friday the 21st through the weekend. Onshore winds and rain showers make a mess of things. By Saturday the 22nd, the swell drops to 3ft with onshore wind, and Sunday the 23rd gets a bit chunkier at 7ft, but it’s choppy and cross-onshore. Not recommended.

Now, hold on to your board, because the real fireworks start on Monday the 24th. We’ve got a 10ft swell from the WSW, with a period of 16 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, and at Manu Bay, a point break, it’s going to unload beautifully. The energy is very strong (3882), but it’s a cross-onshore wind, so it’s not perfect. Still, this is big, powerful surf. Swell this size is for experienced surfers only—if you’re a beginner, stay on the beach for this one.

The next true standout, and I mean the best on offer in the whole outlook, is Monday the 31st of August. The morning is looking exceptional. A massive 18ft swell from the west, with a period of 16 seconds and a cross-offshore breeze. The energy is through the roof (14587). This is for expert surfers only, and it’s going to be a session to remember. The wind is light and clean, and Manu Bay will be handling that power like a dream. If you’re in the water that day, you’re a lucky surfer.

Following that, Tuesday morning the 1st of September still has a solid 10ft swell with a clean cross-off wind, but it’s a step down in size. Still excellent for experienced surfers. Then, Wednesday morning the 2nd of September serves up a 7ft swell with glassy conditions again. That’s a beautiful window for a session if you want something a bit more manageable.

So, the bottom line: the first week is a bit of a washout with a few good windows, but the second week is where the magic is. The absolute standout is Monday the 31st of August, but keep an eye on Thursday the 20th and Wednesday the 2nd of September for cleaner, more accessible waves.

Rusty.

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