Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week and a bit is a write-off for any good surfing at Raglan-Manu Bay. We’re looking at a solid stretch of poor conditions with strong, messy winds, starting Monday the 31st of August. The swell is there, pushing 12ft to 13ft with a very long 14-16 second period, and the combined energy is massive – we're talking 4584 to 6101 – but the cross-onshore and cross-shore winds are just ruining it. It’s lumpy, chopped out, and not worth your time. This messy run goes right through until Thursday the 3rd of September, when the wind finally swings offshore (WNW) but the swell has dropped to 4ft, and it’s still marginal.

We get a bit of a reprieve on Saturday the 5th of September. The morning sees a clean sky with a gentle cross-shore breeze, and we’ve still got a solid 10ft swell from the W, period 14 seconds, and the combined energy is a big 3998. It’s listed as marginal, but with the wind backing off, it's your best shot in the first week. The downside? It’s an advanced wave, and at that size it’s only for the experienced crew. You’ll want to watch for the crowds, because this spot can get busy.

Now, for the true standout. You want to circle the morning of Thursday the 10th of September. The swell is a manageable 5ft from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, giving it heaps of energy (1971). The wind is a slight air, cross-onshore, but it’s light enough to be glassy. This is the kind of day where the long-period groundswell will wrap into the point perfectly, producing those long, clean walls you dream about. It’s a bit smaller, so even a strong intermediate could have a go, but the longer period makes the paddling easier between sets.

Then, the absolute highlight for the second week lands on the morning of Friday the 11th of September. Glassy conditions, with a 6ft WSW swell and a 17-second period (combined energy 1978). The forecast is calling for excellent surf for experienced surfers. This is a morning you don't sleep in for.

Saturday the 12th of September morning also looks clean with a light cross-offshore breeze and a solid 6ft swell on that same 16-second period. Monday the 14th of September morning is cleaner again, but the swell is down to 4ft, so it’s a fun size for a log or a fish.

The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good steamer.

Look, after the 10th, things start to drop off in size and energy, but that Thursday, Friday, and Saturday window is the one to chase. Promising, but you know how the long-range forecast can be – always keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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