Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming down the pipe for Manu Bay. It’s a bit of a mixed bag to be honest, so let’s wade through it.

## Raglan-Manu Bay Outlook

The next week and a half is going to be a bit of a waiting game. There’s always some swell in the water, but the wind is going to be the big factor, and honestly, it’s going to be messy more often than not. We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell from the WSW filtering in, but it’s going to take a magic window to get it clean.

Now, for the here and now, Monday’s a bit of a write-off with rain showers and a cross-shore breeze chopping things up at around 6ft. Water temp is sitting about average for this time of year at 58°, so you’ll want the rubber.

The first real glimmer of hope comes early Tuesday morning, the 15th. The wind drops right out to glassy, the swell is a clean 6ft with a 14-second period, and there’s decent energy in the water. That’s your best bet for a clean session for the next few days. It’s a proper window before the wind swings around and messes it up again for Wednesday and Thursday.

Then things get real. Friday the 18th the swell pumps up to 10ft, but that’s accompanied by a strong 25 mph cross-offshore wind. It’s going to be big, powerful, and blustery. This is not for the faint-hearted. That groundswell is holding strong into Saturday, but the wind gets even worse, onshore, and junky. For a point break like Manu Bay, this is where it gets interesting for the crew on foil kites, not so much for the paddle crew.

The weekend and early next week stay lumpy and blown out with a strong cross-shore, keeping conditions poor. The swell stays solid at 10ft, but with 15-19 mph winds, it’s a mess.

Hold on, because there's a potential standout lurking in the distance. Wednesday the 23rd is looking like a day to circle. The swell is still a meaty 10ft, but with a cross-offshore breeze in the morning, Manu Bay could be absolutely firing. The energy is strong. It’s a long way out, so we’ll have to see how it plays, but the potential is there for a big, powerful, clean day. Thursday the 24th is still big but dropping off, and the wind is more of a cross-onshore.

After that, there’s a bit of a lull into the 26th and 27th with smaller, 5ft – 6ft surf. The wind isn't great, but it could be surfable. Then the 28th and 29th see a confused mix with a long-period W swell trying to fill in, but short-period energy and wind keep things average. The standouts are clearly Tuesday the 15th for a clean, manageable session, and that big Wednesday the 23rd for the more experienced crew.

Remember, this is all about catching those moments. Keep an eye on the wind.

Rusty out.

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