Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cookin’ at Raglan-Manu Bay (New Zealand) for the next sixteen days.

Right off the bat, we’ve got some solid juice in the water, but the wind’s been a bit of a pest. The first proper window to keep your eye on is Friday 17 July through to Sunday 19 July – there’s a decent-sized, long-period groundswell running, but it’s being blown out by cross-shore breezes. The combined energy of all swells directed here is strong to very strong (2,034 to 2,532), with waves around 7ft to 7ft from the WSW, but the onshore influence makes it messy. Water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is about average for this time of year. Not much to get excited about there.

The real standout shape-up comes on Monday 20 July. That morning, we get a nice drop in swell to 5ft (WSW, 14 seconds), but the wind switches to a light ENE breeze at 6 mph, giving us a clean cross-off wind. The combined energy is still moderate (1,076), and the waves will have plenty of push. This is a point break, so that long-period swell (14 seconds) will set up beautifully – expect long, lined-up walls. The afternoon holds similar quality at 5ft (874 energy). This is the best on offer in the whole outlook. Crowds can be a factor here, so get in early.

Tuesday 21 July morning keeps it clean with a light east wind and 4ft swell (482 energy), but it’s smaller. After that, things drop off quick. From Tuesday afternoon through to Thursday 23 July, the swell fades below 3ft and the wind turns messy – not worth paddling out for.

Thursday 23 July morning gives us a brief glimmer with glassy conditions and 3ft swell (307 energy), but it’s marginal. Then we hit a major gap. From Thursday afternoon all the way through to Tuesday 28 July, the wind is wild – strong onshore, cross-shore, and even a near gale on Saturday 25 July with 8ft swell (3,679 energy). That’s expert territory only, and with that wind, it’s a washing machine. For the beach and reef setup, it’d be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

We finally get a break on Wednesday 29 July morning – glassy conditions again, but only 3ft swell (299 energy). It’s clean but small. The rest of the outlook into early August stays inconsistent, with small surf and poor winds. The last half of the window is a write-off for decent waves.

So, bottom line: Monday 20 July is your day. The rest is either blown out, too small, or too wild. It’s a patchy run, but that one day is a gem.

Rusty.

Read more