Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. We've got a mixed bag of a forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days. The good news is there's a solid run of groundswell on the way, but the wind is going to be the main character here, and it's not always a friendly one. The first few days are a write-off, so let's get into it.

The water's sitting at 59°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

Alright, the week starts rough. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are a no-go. We've got a solid 7ft to 8ft WSW swell, but it's coming with a nasty 16 mph cross wind. The energy is massive (2252 and 2925 combined energy), but it's all messy cross-chop. You'd be battling for nothing. Just don't bother.

Monday the 20th is where it starts to turn. The swell drops to 5ft-5ft from the WSW, but the wind swings around to a light easterly, giving us a clean cross-off breeze. The energy is a solid 1076 (moderate). It's a good, clean day for a session, but not a standout.

Tuesday the 21st sees the swell dropping further to 4ft, and the morning still has that clean cross-off wind. It's a small, clean day, but the energy is dropping (490). The afternoon gets a bit messy as the wind shifts.

We then hit a bit of a lull. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd are small, inconsistent, and not worth getting excited about. The swell is under 3ft, and the wind is all over the place. There's a gap of a few days of average conditions.

Friday the 24th is a dud in the afternoon. A short-period 6ft NW swell with a cross-on wind makes for a choppy, ugly mess. Better to stay home.

Saturday the 25th is another one to skip. A 8ft WSW swell, but with a 22 mph cross wind, the energy is huge (2031 to 2119), but it's just a lumpy, blown-out beast. This is kite-surfing territory, not for a paddle.

Now, here's the standout. Sunday the 26th. This is the best on offer. We've got a 8ft to 8ft WSW groundswell rolling in with a very long 15-second period. The energy is massive (2383). But the magic is the wind: a light ESE offshore breeze in the morning, turning glassy. For a point break like Manu Bay, this is the recipe for perfection. It's a big, powerful swell, over 8ft, so this is strictly for experienced surfers. The long period will make it a bit walled-up on the beach, but on a point, it's going to be some of the longest, cleanest waves you'll see. Crowds are a possibility here, so get in early.

Monday the 27th is still good, with a 6ft swell and clean cross-off wind, but it's a step down from Sunday.

The second week has some promising days. Tuesday the 28th is a small, glassy morning with a 4ft swell. Wednesday the 29th sees a clean 4ft swell with a 14-second period, and Thursday the 30th brings a 6ft to 6ft swell with clean morning conditions. Friday the 31st has a bigger 8ft swell, but the wind is a bit cross, so it's not as clean. The weekend of August 1st and 2nd looks like it fades out, with smaller, less consistent surf.

So, if you're looking for the one true standout, it's the morning of Sunday the 26th. Get on it.

Rusty.

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