Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for the next couple of weeks.

We’re starting off a bit slow, but there’s a real gem hiding in the second week that’s got my attention. The first few days are a write-off, with messy onshore winds and small, weak swell. Things don’t really kick off until Friday, September 11th.

Friday, September 11th is the first real standout. Raglan-Manu Bay is going to be firing. We’ve got a solid 10 ft swell rolling in from the WSW, with a very long period of 18 seconds – that’s pure groundswell, classic Manu Bay territory. The combined wave energy is a massive 5434 (strong). The wind is light, cross-offshore from the S at 6 mph, so it’s going to be clean as a whistle. This is advanced territory at that size, so only the experienced crew should be out there. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year. The morning session is the pick, because the arvo gets a bit of a cross-shore wind that messes it up.

The rest of the first week is a bit of a battle. Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are blown out by strong SW winds, with the swell pumping over 13 ft and a combined energy over 8000 (very strong), but it’s a lumpy, cross-shore mess. Not worth paddling out in. Monday the 14th drops a bit in size to 7 ft with a 16-second period, but the wind is still light cross-shore, keeping it average.

We get a bit of a reprieve on Thursday, September 17th morning, with a 10 ft swell and a 14-second period, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the SW at 19 mph. It’s lumpy again. Not great.

Now, here’s the one I’m really excited about. Sunday, September 20th morning. The wind swings around to the ESE at 6 mph, light and cross-offshore. The swell is a solid 12 ft from the W, with a 15-second period. The combined energy is 5329 (strong). This is clean, powerful, and lined up perfectly for Manu Bay. It’s the standout of the whole forecast – a true morning session for the experts. The arvo holds up okay but gets a bit of cross-shore bump.

After that, Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd see a big jump in size again, hitting 13 ft with strong energy, but the wind is cross-on or onshore, so it’s messy. The very end of the window, on Friday, September 25th, shows another promising morning with an 8 ft swell from the WNW, light cross-offshore wind from the SSW, and a clean surface. The period is only 12 seconds there, so it’s not as powerful as the 20th, but it’s still a good wave.

Overall, the best of the lot is that Sunday, September 20th morning session. Mark it in your calendar. The Friday the 11th morning is a close second. Everything else is either too windy or just average.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty.

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