Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up, crew. Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

We’re kicking things off with a bit of a slow start, but hold tight because there’s a massive pulse of energy brewing for the second week that’s got my heart pumping. The first few days are pretty average, with a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind messing things up. The real show doesn’t start to build until about Monday the 24th of August, and then it goes absolutely nuts.

First up, we’ve got Raglan-Manu Bay (New Zealand). Water temp is sitting right around 57°, which is dead average for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there. The first real standout we can talk about is the morning of Friday the 21st of August. It’s not a world-beater, but we’ve got a 4ft swell from the WSW with a period of 14 seconds, and the wind is a light SW cross-shore. The energy is moderate (604), but the conditions are only marginal. Don’t expect much.

The weekend is a write-off. Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are a mess with onshore winds and rainy conditions. Sunday morning actually sees a 8ft WNW swell, but it’s wind-affected and short period (8 seconds), blown out by a fresh breeze. That’s a kite surfer’s playground, not a surfer’s.

Now, Monday the 24th of August is where things get interesting. We’ve got a clean, clear morning with a cross-shore breeze and a 12ft swell from the WSW packing a very long 15-second period. The energy is huge (6161). This is a big, powerful groundswell. For a point break like Manu Bay, that long period is going to wrap in beautifully, offering long, lined-up walls. But listen, 12ft is solidly in the expert zone. This is not for learners. It’s going to be big and powerful. The wind stays cross-shore through the afternoon, making it still rideable, but that’s a lot of water moving.

Tuesday the 25th of August is still pumping. The swell drops to 8ft in the morning, still with that long 15-second period and a WSW direction. The wind is a gentle cross-shore. This is a better size for a wider range of experienced surfers, but still a powerful wave. The energy is very strong (2684). The afternoon gets a bit choppier with a cross-onshore breeze.

The middle of the week calms down a bit. Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th are smaller, in the 5ft to 6ft range, with a mix of onshore and cross-shore winds. The energy drops to moderate (755-1231). They’re surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Friday the 28th of August is a bit of a write-off again with onshore winds and rain spoiling the 5ft to 6ft swell.

Then we get a bit of a breather, but the real magic might be brewing for the end of the month. The morning of Monday the 31st of August is looking clean. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the WSW with a 15-second period, and a light NE cross-offshore breeze. The energy is strong (1076), and the conditions are described as clean. That’s a promising window for a clean, long-period point wave.

The next true standout, and the one that has me checking my calendar, is the afternoon of Tuesday the 1st of September. The forecast shows a 8ft swell from the WSW with a 10-second period, light ENE wind, and it’s cross-offshore. The conditions are clean, and the energy is strong (1156). This could be a magic afternoon at Manu Bay.

But the biggest event of the whole forecast is the morning of Thursday the 3rd of September. We’re looking at a massive 15ft swell from the WSW with a very long 16-second period. The energy is astronomical (10043). The wind is a moderate cross-shore. This is a truly giant groundswell. For a point break, this will be a legendary, once-in-a-season type of swell. This is strictly for experts only. It’s going to be huge, powerful, and potentially dangerous. The afternoon drops to 12ft, still massive.

After that, the swell drops back down through the 4th and 5th of September, losing its power and getting messy again with onshore winds for the weekend. The 5th of September looks like a flat, blown-out end to the run.

If you’re just looking for the best of the best, I’d circle the 1st of September afternoon for quality and the 3rd of September morning for pure, raw power. The 24th of August is also a solid, big-wave day. The rest of the time is marginal or poor.

Rusty.

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