Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie. Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a few windows you’re gonna wanna be wide awake for.

The big story is that Raglan-Manu Bay is going to see a whole heap of energy, but most of it is going to be blown out. The first week is a write-off for the most part. We’ve got a big, powerful groundswell rolling in on the 5th and 6th, packing some serious punch with combined energy readings of 3434 and 3720, but the wind is a mess. That early swell on Saturday the 5th is 9.8 ft from the WSW, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. By Sunday morning it’s dropping slightly to 8.2 ft from the W, but it’s onshore again. It’s just not happening.

Then we get a gap of really sloppy conditions through the middle of the first week. It’s not until Tuesday the 8th that things start to look interesting. That morning the wind drops to glassy. Zero wind. The swell is still a solid 6.9 ft from the west, with a long period of 12 seconds and moderate wave energy (1249). This is your standout for the whole run. It’s going to be clean, powerful, and long. The water temp here is 57.2°, which is about 0.5° off normal for the time of year, so pretty average for the water temp. But the tide will be a factor with a swell this size on a point. This is advanced, long-period wave energy, so the paddle out will be easier between sets.

Wednesday morning the 9th is glassy again but the swell has dropped right off to 3.6 ft with light energy (397). It’ll be clean but small.

After that, it gets ugly again. By the 10th and 11th, we’ve got another massive pulse. On Friday the 11th, the combined energy hits a massive 9700 and 11924, with a 13.1 ft to 14.8 ft swell. But the wind is screaming at 25 mph, leaving a messy cross-chop. That is pure kite surf territory, not a paddle session.

Conditions slowly start to improve into the second week. By Monday the 14th, the wind drops back to a gentle cross-shore, but the swell is still a chunky 9.8 ft with strong energy (3912). It’s still marginal though.

The real promise for a second look is towards the very end. On Friday the 18th of September, we’ve got an 8.2 ft west swell with a 13-second period and a light cross-shore wind. The combined energy is 2235 and the score is decent. Saturday the 19th is smaller at 5.2 ft with a 10-second period, but it’s a light cross-shore again. And then Sunday the 20th gives us a 3.3 ft to 4.3 ft WSW groundswell, but with a cross-offshore breeze. It’s clean, but small.

Best bet? Get out there Tuesday morning the 8th. That’s the one.

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