Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Raglan-Manu Bay.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a nice little window of clean surf. The first real standout is Tuesday morning, 21 July. The water’s sitting at 58° – pretty much bang on average for this time of year, nothing unusual. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and that WSW swell comes in at 4 ft, with a long 14-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and on a point like Manu Bay, that means long, peeling lines. The combined energy is moderate (522). It’s a morning for the connoisseur.

Monday afternoon, 20 July, is a solid warm-up – 5 ft swell from WSW, 14 seconds, and a cross-off breeze with 9 mph. It’s clean enough, with moderate energy (778). The standout is definitely Tuesday morning though – that glassy surface is a gift.

We’ve got a few more clean sessions through to Thursday morning, 23 July, with a 4 ft, 14-second swell and a light cross-off wind. But things go south quickly. Friday 24 July afternoon turns into a mess with 19 mph onshore wind and a short, weak 7-second period. By Saturday 25 July, it’s a big, blown-out beast – 13 ft swell but with 28 mph cross-shore winds and rain. The combined energy jumps to 4408, but it’s not for paddling; that’s kite territory if you’re keen.

There’s a long gap of poor conditions from 25 July through to 30 July, with strong winds and lumpy cross-chop. On 30 July, we get a glimmer with a 5 ft, 17-second very long period groundswell. The energy is strong (1714), but the wind is cross-on, so it’s a bit bumpy. If you’re a experienced surfer and can handle the texture, that long period might offer some clean lines on the point.

The real promise, though, is in the first week of August. On Monday 3 August, we’re looking at 10 ft of WSW swell with a 13-second period, and the wind goes cross-off, then glassy in the afternoon. The energy is strong (2846). That’s proper, powerful groundswell – but at 10 ft, it’s only for the experienced crew. The point will handle it well, but beginners need to sit this one out. Tuesday 4 August morning holds similar size, 10 ft and 15 seconds, with a cross-off wind, though the energy is even higher (4566). That’s a high-stakes, high-reward session. The crowds are sometimes there, so expect company, but if you’re skilled, it’s worth the trip.

So, the best of the bunch: Tuesday morning, 21 July for the glassy, clean, manageable waves; and the first few days of August for the big, powerful groundswell if you’ve got the chops. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain – keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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