Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got just one spot on the radar this time, and it’s a classic: Raglan-Manu Bay. This is a world-class point break, but the next 16 days are a real mixed bag. The first week is mostly a write-off, with clean waves few and far between. The magic really starts to show up in the second week, and I mean *proper* magic.

The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so nothing to worry about there.

We start off Tuesday, 4th August, with a messy 8ft swell from the WSW. That’s a lot of water moving around – the combined energy is a massive 2033 (strong energy) – but the wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it’s lumpy and choppy. Not worth paddling out. The afternoon cleans up a bit with a cross-off breeze, but it’s still a marginal call.

Wednesday morning, 5th August, the swell drops to 6ft but the period is a juicy 14 seconds, so it’s got some real grunt. The wind is cross-off, so it’s clean. But the combined energy is still 1143 (moderate to strong), and it’s a bit raw for the average punter. Still, it’s a step up. Thursday, 6th August, is a dud with tiny waves, and Friday isn’t much better.

The weekend is a no-go, with onshore winds and messy conditions. Sunday afternoon, 9th August, we get a brief moment of glass with a 3ft swell from the WSW, but the period is 15 seconds, and the energy is 679 (moderate). It’s a glassy window, but it’s fleeting.

Now, hang on. The real standout for this whole period is the run from Friday, 14th August, into the following week. Friday morning brings a 12ft swell from the W, with a 10-second period. The wind is light and cross-off. The combined energy is 2175 (strong). This is big, powerful surf. It’s for experts only – over 8ft, so beginners stay on the beach. The afternoon blows out to 13ft (3957 energy). This is serious.

But the absolute best day? Saturday, 15th August. Morning sees a 13ft swell from the W, with a 14-second period and light cross-off winds. The combined energy is a massive 5447 (very strong). This is the best on offer. The weekend continues with big, clean, powerful swell. Sunday, 16th August, morning is 10ft from the W, 16-second period, light cross-off, and energy of 5779. Another belter.

Monday, 17th August, the swell is still 10ft+ but the wind turns cross-shore, so it’s not as clean. We get a second wind on Tuesday, 18th August, with glassy 12ft waves from the WSW. That’s a morning session for the brave. The week closes out with a solid 8ft on Wednesday, 19th August, with clean cross-off winds.

The bottom line: the first week is a washout. Don’t bother. The second week, from Friday 14th August through to Wednesday 19th August, is a feast of big, powerful, clean groundswell. The big days are Saturday 15th and Sunday 16th August. This is a point break, so those long-period swells (14-18 seconds) will wrap in beautifully, but they’ll be heavy. Crowds are possible at any time, so get out early.

This is a spot for the experienced crew. If you’re not comfortable with 10ft+ waves, sit this one out. But if you are, get ready for a proper session.

Rusty.

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