Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for our local stretch.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but things are gonna build into a solid pulse of west swell that looks real promising. The first few days are a bit messy, but we’ve got a standout window coming that’s worth blocking out time for.

We start off Monday the 13th with a small, weak 3ft swell from the WSW, but it’s coming straight out of the NNE at 9 mph, so it’s cross-on and choppy. Not much to get excited about. Tuesday the 14th isn’t much better with a 6ft WNW swell, but period is a short 8 seconds and the wind is all over the shop. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year.

Now, Wednesday the 15th is where things start to get interesting. We’ve got a 7ft W groundswell pushing in with a 17 second period (moderate combined energy of 2210). That’s a lot of juice. The wind is a light northerly in the morning, but by the afternoon it swings light NW and goes offshore. That’s a big plus for cleanliness. This is still a bit big for beginners, but experienced surfers are going to be loving it. The swell direction at 8ft later in the day is right on the money for the optimum SW direction. This is a standout.

Thursday the 16th holds the swell around 7ft with 16 second periods, but the morning offshore breeze (NNW) quickly gives way to a 12 mph cross-shore from the SW in the afternoon, bringing rain and chop. Still good early, but the quality drops off.

The real crown jewel of this forecast falls on Sunday the 19th. The swell is a solid 7ft from the WSW, with a 16 to 17 second period (combined energy of 2495). But the wind is what makes it special. Light ESE winds at 6-12 mph, staying cross-offshore all day. That’s clean, lined-up waves. The afternoon is looking excellent for experienced surfers. This is the best day on offer.

Monday the 20th still has good 5ft to 5ft WSW swell, with light easterly cross-offshore winds. Very clean conditions with moderate energy (1091). A solid follow-up day.

From Tuesday the 21st, the swell starts to taper off, dropping to 4ft and then 3ft. The wind stays light and cross-offshore, so conditions are clean, but the waves get smaller and less powerful.

We hit a bit of a lull from the 22nd into the 23rd, with swell dropping to 2ft. The 23rd sees a small bump back to 4ft from the WSW, but it’s not a standout.

The real weird one comes on Saturday the 25th. A tiny 1ft swell from the WSW, but look at that period – 22 seconds! That’s an incredibly long period groundswell, very rare. It’s got very weak energy (292), but with light SE offshore winds and glassy conditions in the afternoon, it might be a fun novelty session for the longboarders if you can find a point break or reef that picks it up.

Sunday the 26th brings a return to cleaner 5ft to 4ft WSW swell with 16-17 second periods, and light offshore winds. A nice run of clean, consistent surf to close out the period.

The biggest takeaway is clear: Wednesday the 15th and especially Sunday the 19th are your days. The 19th is clean, powerful, and has that perfect wind direction. Don’t miss it.

Rusty.

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