Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead for Manu Bay, and it’s shaping up as a classic run for this Raglan point break. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The pattern starts modest, builds into a meaty mid-range swell, and then really delivers some proper groundswell action in the second week. Let’s get into it.

Friday morning, 7 August, kicks off tiny. We’re looking at 1.3 ft of WSW swell at 12 seconds, but with a cross-off breeze, it’s clean enough to get a fun little slide on the longboard. Combined energy is weak (88), so don’t expect much push. Friday afternoon gets worse—cross-on wind and the swell drops to 1.0 ft. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday morning, 8 August, is a bit better. Swell bumps up to 2.6 ft from the W, period drops to 8 seconds, but the cross-off wind keeps it clean. Combined energy is moderate (149). This is a beginner-friendly window. Saturday afternoon turns choppy and cross-on, so no go.

Sunday morning, 9 August, sees a big jump in swell—7.5 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period. Combined energy is strong (1523), but the wind is cross-shore and moderate at 25 km/h, creating a cross-chop. This is expert territory, and the conditions are marginal. The afternoon is a bit cleaner with lighter cross-on wind, but still messy.

Monday, 10 August, drops back to 3.3 ft to 3.6 ft, WSW swell, long period (14–16 seconds), but cross-on wind keeps it just okay. Combined energy is moderate to strong (809 and 692). Not a standout.

Tuesday morning, 11 August, is a glimmer. 3.0 ft of WSW swell, 14-second period, with a clean cross-off breeze from the east. Combined energy is moderate (392). Rideable but small. Wednesday morning, 12 August, is glassy—2.3 ft, 17-second period, zero wind. Combined energy is moderate (343). Ideal for a point break like this, but it’s tiny.

Now, the real standout starts Thursday morning, 13 August. Swell hits 5.6 ft from the W at 13 seconds, clean with a light cross-off breeze. Combined energy is strong (987). This is very good surf. Thursday afternoon goes glassy, with 4.9 ft swell and 12-second period. Combined energy is strong (703). This is the pick of the first week—clean, lined-up waves at Manu Bay, and crowds are possible, so be ready to share.

Friday morning, 14 August, holds 5.2 ft swell from the WNW, but the period drops to 9 seconds, and wind is up at 25 km/h. Combined energy is strong (821), but it’s a bit lumpy. The afternoon jumps to 6.9 ft, same short period, same strong wind energy (1305). Still marginal.

Saturday morning, 15 August, is a monster. 16.4 ft swell from the W at 14 seconds—combined energy is massive (9289). This is huge, expert-only territory. Wind is cross-shore and moderate, so it’s bumpy and dangerous. The afternoon gets worse with 35 km/h cross-on wind and 14.8 ft swell. This is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session.

Sunday morning, 16 August, drops to 11.5 ft from the WSW at 10 seconds, but the wind flips to a light cross-off. Combined energy is very strong (2664). This is excellent for experienced surfers—big, powerful, and clean. The afternoon stays strong at 8.2 ft with a moderate cross-off, still good for the crew who can handle it.

Monday, 17 August, is another standout. 5.6 ft to 6.2 ft WSW swell, 15-second period, with offshore winds from the ESE. Combined energy is very strong (1629 to 1929). This is groundswell perfection at Manu Bay—long, clean lines, and the offshore breeze will groom it beautifully. Crowds are possible, but it’s worth it.

Tuesday morning, 18 August, stays good at 4.9 ft, 14-second period, light offshore, combined energy strong (954). Very good conditions. The afternoon turns cross-shore, so get your session in early.

Wednesday morning, 19 August, is glassy again. 4.3 ft of 13-second WSW swell, combined energy strong (705). Perfect for a mellow, clean session. The afternoon gets a cross-shore ripple, but still rideable.

Thursday morning, 20 August, is clean with 4.6 ft, 14-second swell, cross-off breeze, combined energy strong (819). Very good. The afternoon has a light cross-on, so morning is the call.

Friday, 21 August, drops to 3.3 ft to 3.9 ft, but with 14–15-second period and clean conditions in the morning. Combined energy is moderate to strong (635 to 940).

Read more