Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

We’re in for a bit of a slow start, but don’t go writing it off. The first few days are a bit of a write-off, with lumpy, cross-shore winds and messy conditions. The energy is there, but it’s not doing us any favours. From Monday the 3rd through to Wednesday the 5th, it’s all a bit marginal, with strong onshore winds and big, unruly swell. We’ve got a 10-foot groundswell on Tuesday morning with a 16-second period, but it’s being thrashed by a 19 mph cross-breeze, making it a real dog’s breakfast. The water temps are about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about.

Thursday the 6th sees a real drop-off. The swell shrinks to 3 feet with a 12-second period, and the energy is weak (243). It’s glassy in the morning though, with a light 3 mph easterly, so if you’re desperate for a paddle, you might find a clean little one. But honestly, it’s pretty ordinary. Friday and Saturday are flat and onshore, with rain and weak swell. Not worth the drive.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. From Sunday the 9th, things start to turn. Sunday afternoon brings a glassy 3-foot swell from the WSW, with a 14-second period and a touch of energy (478). The wind is light, and it’s looking clean. It’s not big, but it’s a sign of better things.

Monday the 10th is the first real standout. The morning brings a clean 3-foot groundswell from the WSW, with a 16-second period and a light E wind. The energy is solid (686). By the afternoon, the swell pushes to 5 feet from the W, with a 16-second period and a clean cross-off breeze. The energy jumps to 1175. This is the one to circle. The Manu Bay point will be running nicely, with long, peeling lines. The crowd can be a factor here, so get in early.

The rest of the week holds plenty of clean, fun surf. Tuesday the 11th, Wednesday the 12th, and Thursday the 13th all offer waist-to-chest-high waves with that long-period groundswell and light offshore or glassy conditions. The energy sits in the moderate range, but the quality is there. The swell direction is WSW, which is spot-on for Manu Bay.

The next big standout comes on Sunday the 16th. The morning delivers a 8-foot swell from the W, with a 12-second period, and a light S breeze. The energy is strong (1892), and it’s clean. This is a session for the experienced crew—it’s going to be powerful and punchy. The point will handle it well, but it’s no place for beginners.

The final day, Tuesday the 18th, looks like a cracker. A 10-foot W swell with an 11-second period, clean offshore ESE wind, and a massive energy reading of 3345. This is a big, powerful swell, and it’s only for the experts. The point will be working, but it’ll be a serious paddle.

So, the best on offer? Monday the 10th for the clean, long-period groundswell that’s still manageable, and Sunday the 16th for the bigger, more committed session. The long-period swells are best at a point like Manu Bay, so you’ll get those long, groomed walls.

Rusty.

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