Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The upcoming period is a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a solid window of quality surf if you’re patient. The big story is the swell arriving late in the first week, with a few days of very clean conditions.

The first real chance for a surf is Thursday afternoon, July 23rd, at Manu Bay (Raglan). There’s a 4ft WSW swell ticking over at 13 seconds, which is a nice long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate (595), and the water temp is sitting at 58°, which is about average for the time of year. The wind is light and offshore from the NW, so it’ll be glassy. That said, the score is a bit marginal, so don’t expect perfection.

The next few days are a write-off. Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are a mess – strong onshore winds, lumpy, and messy. The swell gets huge on Saturday, up to 16ft, but with 28 mph cross-shore winds, it’s unsurfable. Sunday the 26th is where it starts to turn. The swell drops to a solid 10ft, still from the W, but the wind goes light and cross-offshore from the E. The energy is strong (3617), and the conditions are clean. This is a standout for experienced surfers only – that size is too much for beginners.

The real gem is Monday morning, July 27th. We’ve got a 7ft W swell, 13-second period, and the wind is glassy out of the SE. The energy is strong (1491), and the water is clean. This is the best on offer. The wind stays good through Monday afternoon and into Tuesday morning, but the swell starts to drop. The period stays long, though, so the waves will have shape, especially on a point break like Manu Bay.

After Tuesday, the quality fades. There’s a gap from Wednesday the 29th through to the end of the month, with a mix of onshore winds and weaker swell. The long-range stuff into the first week of August looks more promising again. On Monday, August 3rd, there’s a small 2ft groundswell, but it’s coming from 16 seconds and the wind is offshore. That’s a sneaky clean day. By Wednesday, August 5th, the swell picks back up to 6ft with a 17-second period, and the wind is solid offshore from the SSE. That’s another standout for experienced surfers, with strong energy (1876) and clean conditions. It’s a bit far out, so keep an eye on it, but it’s looking good.

Overall, if you’ve got a flexible schedule, Monday the 27th of July is the pick of the bunch. The early signs for August 5th are also worth getting excited about, but it’s a longer-range call. The crowd at Manu Bay can be there sometimes, so get out early. This is a point break, so that long-period groundswell will line up nicely.

Rusty.

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