Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break this down for the next couple weeks at Manu Bay.

Look, the first week is a total mess. Wind screaming from the southwest and west, mostly cross or cross-on, with swell sizes from 7 ft up to 13 ft. Combined wave energy bounces between moderate and very strong (754 to 5618), but it’s all junk. Water temp at Raglan-Manu Bay is about 57°, which is normal for the season, nothing out of the ordinary. You don’t want to be out for the first seven days.

Sunday 30th August through Monday evening 7th September – write it off. Winds are strong, swell is big, and periods go from short 8 seconds to very long 14–16 seconds, but the wind just tears up the faces. Lumpy cross-chop and messy conditions. Even when the swell drops a little around 7–8 ft, the wind is still rough. The one small bright spot is Saturday afternoon 5th September: swell still 10 ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, and the wind eases to a gentle cross-shore. Combined energy strong (3482), but the wave comment is still “marginal.” Not a standout.

Sunday 6th September sees lighter northeast cross-shore winds in the morning, swell 10 ft at 16 seconds, energy very strong (4003). A bit cleaner, but still not the best.

Now the first real highlight. Tuesday 8th September – Tuesday morning the wind goes light east-southeast cross-offshore, swell 8 ft from the west at 13 seconds, combined energy moderate-strong (2223). Wave comment says “excellent surf for experienced surfers.” Tuesday afternoon goes glassy – zero wind, clean, swell 7 ft from the west at 13 seconds. That’s the best window. Crowds can be an issue sometimes at Manu Bay, so if it’s good, expect company. Swell is over 7 ft, so you need to be experienced.

After that, it drops hard. Wednesday 9th through Friday 11th September – small, weak, onshore junk. Swell down to 4–6 ft with poor wind.

Saturday 12th September brings another window. Saturday afternoon the wind goes light south-southwest cross-offshore, 7 ft west swell at 13 seconds, combined energy moderate (1417). Wave comment: “excellent surf for experienced surfers.” Clean. That’s your second bet.

Sunday 13th September starts clean with a light cross-offshore breeze, but swell drops to 5 ft. Wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” A smaller, more accessible day. By afternoon it’s cross-shore and dropping – not worth it.

Monday 14th September morning has a light east cross-offshore breeze with 5 ft WSW swell at 16 seconds (combined energy 1067). Wave comment: “expect very good surf conditions.” Clean and fun for a wider range.

Standout is Tuesday 8th September – that glassy afternoon with clean 7 ft west swell is the best on offer, but it’s for experienced crew. Second standout is Saturday 12th September afternoon with clean cross-offshore winds and 7 ft swell. The smaller clean mornings on the 13th and 14th are good options too.

First week is a dud, then it gets interesting for a few days. Be patient and watch that Tuesday.

- Rusty

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