Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, checkin’ in from down the line.

Alright, so the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag for us here at Manu Bay (Raglan). There’s some serious swell on the way, but the wind is gonna be a fickle mate. The water temp is sittin’ right on 57°, which is dead average for this time of year – feels about normal.

We’ve got a big ol’ blank patch from now through to the middle of next week. Friday (the 4th) kicks off with a solid 5ft WSW swell and a 15-second period, but that fresh NW wind is gonna chop it up – it’s a write-off. Saturday and Sunday have some juice, with 10ft to 8ft WSW swells, but the wind stays cross-onshore, so everything looks messy. Monday and Tuesday get sloppy with onshore winds. It’s gonna be a bit of a wait.

There’s a small window on Wednesday the 9th morning – the swell drops off to 5ft from the west with a short 9-second period, but we get light cross-shore winds. The energy’s pretty weak (469), so it’s more of a longboard cruiser session if you’re desperate.

Now, keep your eye on Friday the 11th of September. That’s the standout. A monster 16ft WSW groundswell is forecast to roll in with a 19-second period – that’s very long period, proper energy (17,695). The wind goes light- to moderate cross-offshore from the SSW, and the report says it’s clean. This is a point break, and that long-period swell is absolutely made for it – expect long, grinding walls with easy paddle-outs between sets. The combined energy is massive. However, the afternoon jumps to 18ft with 18-second period, and the combined energy hits 20,066. That is *huge*. The guidance notes say it might be too big even for this spot. This one’s strictly for expert chargers only – if you’re not comfortable in big, powerful surf, sit this one out. The morning session might be the pick, but you’d need to be on your game regardless.

Saturday the 12th is still big at 15ft for the morning, but the stiff WSW wind will make it lumpy. Sunday the 13th drops to 10ft but there’s still a fresh cross-shore breeze making it choppy. The following week looks like a slow fade-out with smaller, wind-affected leftovers.

So your real opportunity, if you’ve got the skills, is a very focused window on the morning of the 11th. The rest of the outlook is mostly about waiting.

Rusty.

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