Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.82° S 174.83° E

Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 20 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Raglan-Manu Bay sea temperature is
14.6° C
0.2° 

Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 26 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 9,400 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 14s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Raglan-Manu Bay this week:

The surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Raglan-Manu Bay in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12PM (Mon 20th Jul)5ft (1.5m) 14s
Best Surf12PM (Mon 20th Jul)5ft (1.5m) 14s
Most Powerful 3AM (Sun 26th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up on the West Coast.

The first swell of the run shows up on Monday the 20th of July, and it’s a solid start. Manu Bay (Raglan) is the only break on the radar, and it’s a point break that loves a good SW groundswell. Monday morning we’ve got a 5ft swell from the WSW, with a long 14-second period, and light east winds keeping it cross-off and clean. Water temp is 58°, which is about average for this time of year. The combined swell energy is strong (1076). This is a standout for the first week – clean, punchy, and that long period means the wave will be lined up and juicy. Crowds are possible at Manu, but for a Monday morning, you might score a bit of room.

The surf drops off a bit through Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday morning still has a clean 4ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, but the energy drops (522). By Wednesday, the wind turns cross and bumpy, and the swell is small and weak. From Thursday onward, the wind gets messy with cross-on and onshore flow, and the quality tanks. Friday the 24th is a write-off – onshore wind and a messy 6ft swell. That’s the low point.

Then we hit a real rough patch. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see huge swell – up to 13ft – but with howling WSW winds, 22-25 mph, making it a lumpy, churned-up mess. The energy is massive (over 8000), but it’s not for paddling. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. That continues through Monday and Tuesday the 27th and 28th – still big, still windy, still ugly.

The light at the end of the tunnel? Wednesday the 29th shows signs of improvement. Wind drops to a moderate breeze, and the swell settles back to 8ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, energy around 2500. Still a bit cross and lumpy, but it’s getting there.

And then, the real prize. Friday the 31st of July morning. This is the one to circle. The forecast is for a 15ft swell from the west, a 17-second period, and glassy conditions with a light SE breeze. The combined energy is 10990 – that’s exceptional. This is a big, powerful groundswell, and at Manu Bay, that long period will produce long, running walls. It’s only for experts at this size, but it’s as good as it gets. The offshore wind in the morning will have it looking like a dream. Saturday the 1st of August morning is also excellent – 15ft, cross-off wind, clean, but with a slightly shorter period (15 seconds).

Into the second week, Sunday the 2nd of August morning has a smaller 8ft swell from the WSW with a 13-second period, and light cross-off winds – clean and fun for experienced surfers. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th see a return of 10ft to 12ft swells, still from the WSW, with east winds keeping it cross-off and clean. The period holds around 14 seconds, so good energy. These are promising but less certain.

Overall, the standout is the morning of Friday the 31st of July – get that date in the calendar. The run-up is rough, but the payoff is epic.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 33mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Thu morning, strong winds from the NW by Sat afternoon).

Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
2
1
2
0
0
1
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
WSW
14
1.4
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
14
1.2
WSW
14
1.1
WSW
13
1
WSW
13
1.1
WSW
12
1.3
WSW
7
0.6
WSW
12
1.1
WSW
14
1.4
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
13
0.9
WSW
12
1.9
WNW
7
3
W
9
1.8
WSW
14
3
W
16
4.5
WSW
16
4
WSW
16
4
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1076
778
649
522
396
321
359
154
96
459
673
543
220
335
1272
1277
5266
9124
8489
7635
4806
Wind (km/h)
10
E
15
E
10
E
5
ESE
10
SW
5
SW
15
SW
25
SW
10
S
5
NE
15
WSW
15
WNW
20
N
25
NNW
45
WSW
35
WSW
30
WNW
35
WSW
40
WSW
40
WSW
50
WSW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
glassy
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
2:27PM2.59m
2:46AM2.59m
3:14PM2.43m
3:36AM2.41m
4:08PM2.31m
4:37AM2.28m
5:20PM2.24m
5:51AM2.22m
6:41PM2.28m
7:02AM2.25m
7:41PM2.38m
8:00AM2.34m
8:29PM2.52m
Low Tide
8:40PM0.61m
9:08AM0.61m
9:29PM0.79m
9:56AM0.75m
10:27PM0.93m
10:54AM0.87m
11:38PM1.01m
12:10PM0.91m
00:57AM0.99m
1:21PM0.87m
1:57AM0.90m
2:16PM0.77m
2:43AM0.78m
mod rain
light rain
rain showers
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
rain showers
heavy rain
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
mod rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:30
7:30
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:26
7:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:22
5:23
5:24
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:28
 mm
6
5
10
1
1
2
2
13
6
1
9
3
4
8
Temp °C
9
9
9
10
11
12
13
13
12
12
13
13
11
13
12
12
13
13
11
11
11
Feels °C
6
5
6
9
8
9
8
8
8
11
10
10
7
8
5
5
6
6
2
2
1
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Raglan-Manu Bay Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Raglan-Manu Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Raglan-Manu Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Raglan-Manu Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Raglan-Manu Bay is 42 km (26 miles) from Hamilton. If you plan a holiday in Raglan and West Waikato, look for hotels and other accommodation in Hamilton. Hamilton has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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