Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a pretty solid run of surf on the way for the Raglan-Manu Bay area, but you’re gonna have to be patient. The first few days are a bit of a write-off, with messy conditions dominating. The real magic starts to show toward the end of the week and into the next.

Right now, Wednesday morning the 19th is a tease. There’s a decent 6 ft swell from the WSW with a 13-second period, but the wind is a cross-off from the S at 12 mph. The water's sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year. The combined energy is pushing 1208, which is decent, but the wave comment says "marginal" and the score is low. It’s not the time to be calling in sick.

The pattern doesn’t improve much through to the weekend. We get a brief moment of clarity on Thursday morning the 20th – the wind goes glassy, dead calm, with a 5 ft WSW swell at 14 seconds. That’s clean, but the energy is moderate (1076) and the score is still average. It’s a window, but not a standout. By Friday and Saturday, onshore winds and chop ruin the fun. Sunday the 23rd is a washout with 16 mph winds and rain. The swell is 7 ft on Sunday morning, but with a strong cross-on wind, it’s just a mess.

Monday the 24th is where things get interesting. The swell builds to 8 ft by the afternoon, from the WSW, with a very long 16-second period. The energy jumps to 3258, which is strong. The wind is a cross-shore from the WSW at 9 mph, creating a bit of cross-chop, but the size and period are there. This is more for the experienced crew – 8 ft is getting big, and with that long period it’ll be fat and powerful. It’s a point break, so it should handle that period well, but it’s not a beginner wave.

The next few days keep the size up, but the wind stays on it, so it’s a bit of a battle. The real standouts are at the very end of the outlook. The 30th of August, a Sunday, is looking promising. The morning shows a 4 ft WSW swell with an 18-second period – that’s very long period energy. The wind is a light cross-off from the E at 6 mph, and the water is clean. The combined energy is 1289, moderate. The wave status says "expect very good surf conditions." Then the afternoon gets even better: 5 ft from the W at 17 seconds, with a light cross-off, energy jumping to 1504, and it’s described as "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That’s the one to circle. The offshore wind and long-period groundswell are a dream combo for this point.

But if you want the absolute best, hold out for the 3rd of September. Thursday morning is glassy – dead calm, with a 7 ft WSW swell and a 16-second period. The energy is 2567, which is strong. It’s classed as "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That’s the big one. It’s big, it’s clean, and it’s powerful. The afternoon is still good, but the wind turns a touch onshore, so morning is the call.

Overall, the first week is a slog. The standout is the morning of the 3rd of September. The 30th of August is a very solid backup. The 8 ft swell on the 24th of August is also worth a mention for the experienced rippers.

Rusty.

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