Surf Forecasts:
Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 7 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 6 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 3,169 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Raglan-Manu Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Raglan-Manu Bay in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.2m 8s period and expected on Monday (Jul 06) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Tue 7th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Tue 7th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Mon 6th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up.
We’re looking at a solid run of south-west groundswell for Raglan, but the first few days are a bit of a washout with rain and dodgy wind. The real standout window kicks off from Tuesday afternoon and carries through into the following week. The combined swell energy jumps to moderate levels (2712) early Tuesday morning, but the wind is still a bit messy. The first true highlight is Tuesday afternoon: clean offshore ESE wind at 12 mph on a 7ft WSW groundswell at 16 seconds. That’s a long-period swell, so it’ll wrap beautifully into Manu Bay with real shape and power. The water temp is about average for this time of year.
Manu Bay (Raglan-Manu-Bay) is a classic point break, fairly exposed to the swell, and it’s fairly consistent. While crowds are sometimes an issue here, that offshore wind and long-period groundswell will have everyone frothing. This is the one to aim for. The energy is moderate (1997) but the quality is top shelf – excellent for experienced surfers. The overall pattern is good, just be patient through the sloppy Sunday and Monday.
From Thursday morning through Saturday of the following week, the swell holds strong in the 7ft to 8ft range with clean conditions, but by the time you hit the second week, things get big. From July 14 onward, we’re looking at 10ft to 15ft WSW swell with long periods (14 to 18 seconds), but the wind turns cross or cross-onshore, making it messy. July 15 morning sees a big 12ft clean swell and moderate energy (6047), but it’s pushing into expert-only territory. July 16 morning is another standout with 10ft WSW at 16 seconds, near glassy SSW wind at 3 mph – that’s a long-period groundswell with perfect conditions, but only for experienced surfers. The combined energy is strong (4153).
The best bet for the majority of surfers is Tuesday afternoon (July 7) and Thursday afternoon (July 9) – both have clean offshore wind, waves around 7ft, and plenty of grunt. The long-period nature of the swell means it’ll be best on the point, with longer lulls between sets. The period over 15 seconds is a sign of quality groundswell. For the big stuff in the second week, you need to be an expert. If you’re not, stay in the channel and watch.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 27mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri morning, min 9°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Sat 11 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 11 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | W 14 | W 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 604 | 788 | 406 | 555 | 1483 | 1569 | 3169 | 2576 | 1956 | 1130 | 702 | 460 | 476 | 674 | 2170 | 1496 | 2654 | 2349 | 1096 | 776 | 580 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:07AM2.84m | 1:31PM2.63m | 1:46AM2.77m | 2:14PM2.57m | 2:30AM2.69m | 3:01PM2.51m | 3:18AM2.61m | 3:52PM2.46m | 4:13AM2.55m | 4:54PM2.44m | 5:17AM2.52m | 6:11PM2.49m | 6:32AM2.55m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:28AM0.53m | 7:41PM0.56m | 8:10AM0.55m | 8:25PM0.63m | 8:54AM0.58m | 9:14PM0.70m | 9:42AM0.62m | 10:08PM0.75m | 10:36AM0.65m | 11:11PM0.78m | 11:43AM0.66m | 00:28AM0.75m | 1:02PM0.61m | ||||||||
 |  | |  |  | |  |  | | | |  | | | | | | |  | | | |
 | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — |
 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 |
mm | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 11 | WNW 10 | WNW 9 | WNW 10 | W 14 | NW 10 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | 604 | 788 | 406 | 555 | 1483 | 1569 | 3169 | 2576 | 1956 | 1130 | 702 | 460 | 476 | 674 | 2170 | 1496 | 2654 | 2349 | 1096 | 776 | 580 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | W 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 14 | NW 9 | NW 8 | NW 8 | NW 8 | W 21 | W 20 | SW 7 | WSW 16 | W 21 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | SW 6 | W 19 |
| kJ | 53 | 222 | 290 | 380 | — | 1155 | 466 | 136 | 41 | 10 | 9 | 67 | 102 | 448 | 80 | 608 | — | — | — | 45 | 190 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 20 | — | — | W 24 | — | W 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 18 | W 24 | — | — | — | — | — | W 21 | — |
| kJ | 30 | — | — | 11 | — | 1215 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 307 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 4 | — | — | — | NNW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 7 | — | SW 6 |
| kJ | 10 | — | — | — | 659 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 63 | — | 20 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 231 | 108 | 135 | 154 | 9 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 56 | 56 | 56 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Raglan and West Waikato | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Raglan-Manu Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Raglan-Manu Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Raglan-Manu Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Raglan-Manu Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Raglan-Manu Bay is 42 km (26 miles) from Hamilton. If you plan a holiday in Raglan and West Waikato, look for hotels and other accommodation in Hamilton. Hamilton has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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