Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's have a look at what's on the cards.

This is a classic Raglan story, Manu Bay (New Zealand) is the only spot firing up in the finder, and it’s a real mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. We've got some serious groundswell on the horizon, but the wind is going to be the big boss, making or breaking the sessions.

The water is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

We kick off on Wednesday the 5th with a solid 6ft WSW groundswell pushing through, carrying a massive 1210 units of energy. The wind is a cross-off S breeze, so it should be clean. The period is a nice 14 seconds, meaning real proper lines. It’s a bit on the bigger side for beginners, but for the advanced crew, this is a good start.

Thursday the 6th drops right off. We’ve got 3ft on the morning with a light ESE breeze keeping it clean, but the energy has dropped to just 242. It's small and weak. Friday is even smaller, barely worth a paddle.

Then things get interesting. Saturday the 8th sees a jump back up, but it's short-period windswell, only 8 seconds, with a nasty NE cross-shore breeze. It’s going to be a messy, choppy mess. Not for surfing.

Sunday the 9th, though... hold onto your board. The swell builds to a powerful 8ft from the WNW, with energy roaring at 1835. This is expert territory, too big and powerful for most. The wind is a strong NNE cross-shore, which will put a nasty cross-chop on it. It’s going to be a beast, but not a clean one.

Monday the 10th sees the size drop back to 3ft, but the period stretches to a very long 16 seconds. The energy is still decent at 718, but with a light cross-shore wind, it’ll be a bit bumpy. A long period groundswell like this can break a bit too straight at the beach breaks, but Manu Bay, being a point, will handle it beautifully.

Now, the standout window. Wednesday the 12th afternoon is the absolute pick of the forecast. The swell builds to a solid 6ft from the W with a massive 16-second period, packing 1451 units of energy. And the wind? Glassy. Absolutely glassy. It’s described as "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and for good reason. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The swell direction is a touch off the optimum, but with that size, period, and glass, it’s going to be world-class.

The next few days are a write-off. Thursday the 13th turns to rain and onshore winds, and Friday the 14th is hammered by a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore wind. Choppy and lumpy, forget it.

We get another big pulse on Saturday the 15th – 8ft from the WSW with a huge 17-second period, energy at a massive 5430. But it's raining and the wind is onshore, strong and messy. That’s a kite surfer’s dream, not a surfer’s. Sunday the 16th is the same story: big, powerful, and completely blown out.

The pattern continues into the second week with strong onshore winds and messy conditions right through to Tuesday the 18th.

Finally, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Wednesday the 19th morning looks promising. The swell is a solid 6ft from the WSW with 14-second period and strong energy (1517), but the magic ingredient is a clean, offshore SE breeze. This is flagged as excellent for experienced surfers. A bit of a crowd is possible here, but on a morning like that, you’ll be sharing it with people who know what they’re doing.

So, the takeaway: this week is a washout except for that brief, glorious window on Wednesday the 12th. Next week, hold out for Wednesday the 19th. Everything else is blown out or too small.

Rusty.

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