Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, how’s it goin’? Rusty here, and we’ve got a ripper outlook coming up for Raglan.

The swell window is about to open proper from Friday 14 August, with a long-period WSW groundswell pushing in. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year—no major temperature surprises.

Friday 14 August kicks things off with some morning surf at Manu Bay. It’s a clean point break setup, a bit of a cross-off breeze from the east, and the swell’s coming in at 4 ft from the WSW with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is moderate (838), and there's plenty of push. Afternoon sees the swell bumping up to 5 ft (energy 1160), still on a 16-second pulse, and the ESE cross-off keeps it tidy. This is a solid start—good shape, classic Raglan lines.

The standout window is Saturday 15 August. Saturday morning is where I’d be pointing the car. The swell is 6 ft from the WSW, period stretching out to 17 seconds, and a light southerly cross-off is keeping the surface clean. The combined energy jumps right up to 1749. This is quality, proper groundswell—those long lines will bowl up nicely down the point. Afternoon sees the swell hitting 7 ft, but the wind swings cross-shore from the SW at 9 mph and the surface picks up a bit of chop, so the early session is the one.

Sunday 16 August is another cracker, but it’s big—8 ft from the WSW in the morning (energy 2901), cleaned up by a 9 mph southerly cross-off. For experienced surfers only this size, and a 16-second period is going to make the sets a bit more powerful and more widely spaced, giving you time to get into position. Sunday afternoon, the wind goes offshore from the SE, 9 mph, with the swell at 7 ft and energy 2472—still serious, but clean as you like.

Through the week the size drops, but the quality holds. Tuesday 18 August and Wednesday 19 August offer smaller, cleaner options in the 4 ft to 5 ft range, with light winds. Thursday 20 August morning is glassy—ESE breeze at just 3 mph, swell 5 ft from the WSW—absolutely worth a paddle.

Then we hit a quiet stretch from Saturday 22 August through to Monday 24 August. Wave heights drop below 3 ft, the wind gets messy, and the energy fizzles out. Not worth the wetsuit.

But don’t lose hope—there’s a late burst in the second week. Tuesday 25 August morning brings a solid 7 ft WSW groundswell, 16-second period, and a light SSE cross-off breeze (energy 2020). That’s a strong, clean call for the experienced crew. From there, Wednesday 26 August through to the end of the month, things settle into fun, clean 3 ft to 6 ft surf with light offshore or glassy conditions. Not the size of that first weekend, but consistent and surfable right through to Saturday 29 August.

Crowds can be an issue at Manu Bay—it’s a well-known spot—so weekends will have more heads out. But with that much quality on offer, you’ll find your own stretch.

Catch ya in the water.
Rusty.

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