Surf Forecasts:
Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 19 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 6,341 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Raglan-Manu Bay this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Raglan-Manu Bay in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 19) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sat 19th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here, let's break down the next 16 days. We've got one spot that's worth talking about, and it's a legend.
We're focusing on Raglan-Manu Bay. This is a world-class left-hand point break. The early part of the period has some size, but the wind is a bit of a wildcard. The magic here is when it all lines up.
Tuesday morning starts us off with glassy 6ft surf from the WSW, with a 14-second period. The water temp sits at 58°, right where it should be for this time of year. The energy in the water is very strong (1204), and with no wind, those Manu Bay walls are going to be clean and fast.
After that, we hit a rough stretch. From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, the wind turns cross or cross-on, and the quality takes a hit. The swell sticks around, but it gets choppy. It'll be a frustrating watch.
Friday the 18th of September brings a big jump in size, but with strong cross-shore winds. The swell hits 10ft on Friday morning and pumps up to 12ft by the afternoon, but the SW wind at 22 mph makes it lumpy and blown-out. The energy is huge (5601), but this is expert-only and the conditions are poor. This is more of a kitesurfing setup than a clean paddle session.
The oversized, messy trend runs through the weekend and into Monday the 21st. The swell stays big, between 10ft and 13ft, with strong cross-shore winds. The wave energy is through the roof (over 4500), but the lack of clean wind makes it a real mission. Not the classic Manu Bay we're after.
Things start turning around by Wednesday the 23rd. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft in the morning, hitting 10ft in the afternoon, but the wind shifts to a cross-off, cleaning up the faces. The period jumps to a very long 17 seconds on Wednesday afternoon, giving those waves serious push.
The absolute standout of the entire run is Friday the 25th of September. Get this: 7ft of long-period WSW groundswell (14 seconds), moderate energy (1797), and glassy conditions in the morning. The wind is a dead calm from the south at just 3 mph. For a point break like Manu Bay, glassy conditions with this size and direction mean perfect, long, peeling left-handers. This is the day to mark down. It's a long way off, so nothing is set in stone, but the recipe is perfect.
The final weekend, the 27th and 28th of September, looks clean again, with a smaller 4ft to 5ft swell and offshore or light cross-off winds. These will be fun, easy days for a log or a funboard. The period is very long (18 seconds) on Monday the 28th, so expect long lines and big gaps between sets—making the paddle out a breeze.
So, for the best waves: Friday morning the 25th of September is the one to aim for, with Wednesday morning the 30th of September as a close second for another glassy, clean session. See you in the water.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Sat afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | W 11 | WNW 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1204 | 970 | 668 | 440 | 269 | 373 | 826 | 702 | 3186 | 4769 | 5601 | 6259 | 5159 | 3835 | 4485 | 2767 | 3960 | 4655 | 4513 | 3718 | 2318 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 12:32PM2.83m | 00:47AM2.73m | 1:07PM2.69m | 1:23AM2.55m | 1:46PM2.53m | 2:07AM2.37m | 2:34PM2.36m | 3:06AM2.20m | 3:39PM2.22m | 4:24AM2.10m | 5:05PM2.16m | 5:43AM2.10m | 6:23PM2.23m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:46PM0.40m | 7:06AM0.38m | 7:25PM0.59m | 7:43AM0.57m | 8:09PM0.78m | 8:26AM0.76m | 9:01PM0.95m | 9:19AM0.93m | 10:07PM1.06m | 10:32AM1.03m | 11:29PM1.07m | 12:00PM1.00m | 00:48AM0.96m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | |  | |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | W 11 | WNW 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 14 |
| kJ | 1204 | 970 | 668 | 440 | 269 | 373 | 826 | 702 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4655 | 4513 | — | 2318 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | W 20 | WSW 6 | — | W 16 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 7 | 21 | — | 135 | 633 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | W 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | — | — | WSW 15 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3186 | 4769 | 5601 | 6259 | 5159 | 3835 | 4485 | 2767 | 3960 | — | — | 3718 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 292 | 228 | 228 | 247 | 9 | 228 | 169 | 108 | 114 | 306 | 195 | 191 | 247 | 247 | 195 | 191 | 197 | 228 | 252 | 238 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Raglan and West Waikato | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Raglan-Manu Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Raglan-Manu Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Raglan-Manu Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Raglan-Manu Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Raglan-Manu Bay is 42 km (26 miles) from Hamilton. If you plan a holiday in Raglan and West Waikato, look for hotels and other accommodation in Hamilton. Hamilton has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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