Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer at Raglan-Manu Bay.

The next 16 days start with a real tease. Tuesday morning is the standout early in the period. It’s glassy with that 3 mph ENE breeze and a solid 6ft WSW groundswell with a long 14-second period. The combined swell energy is pumping at 1204 (moderate to strong). It’s an advanced wave, so you’ll need your wits about you, but the conditions will be as clean as it gets. Crowds can show up here sometimes, but for that session, it’ll be worth sharing.

After that Tuesday morning window, the wind turns onshore or cross-shore for days. Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off with messy, choppy conditions. By Friday, the wind swings cross-off but the swell is getting bigger and the breeze is too strong for good surf. Saturday and Sunday see a big, powerful WSW swell over 10ft, but with strong cross-shore winds, it’s just lumpy, blown-out chaos. The combined energy is massive (over 5000), but it’s not doing us any favours. Monday is more of the same—big but messy.

There’s a solid gap of poor conditions from Tuesday afternoon all the way through to the following Tuesday. Then things finally start to look up. On Wednesday the 23rd of September, we’ve got a monster 15ft swell from the WSW with a very long 16-second period and a clean cross-off southerly at 12 mph. Combined energy is a massive 9765 (strong to very strong). This is a proper big-wave session for experts only, and that long-period groundswell will be racing down the point. The wind is clean, but it’s huge, so don’t even think about it unless you’ve got the experience. Thursday the 24th drops to 8ft, still with a clean cross-off, but the wind picks up in the afternoon and lumps it up.

The next real highlight is Friday the 25th of September morning. Glassy conditions with a 7ft WSW groundswell at 14 seconds. Combined energy is 1956 (strong). The water temp anomaly is about average for this time of year. It’s not the biggest, but with zero wind and a long-period groundswell, the point will be running smooth and lined up. Crowds are possible, but it’s worth it.

Saturday the 26th of September morning is another glassy session, with a smaller 4ft swell. Combined energy is 791 (moderate). The wind is calm, so it’ll be clean, but the size is more suited to longboards or a relaxed cruise. After that, the wind turns onshore again into the first days of October and the quality drops off.

Overall, the best windows are Tuesday morning the 15th, Friday morning the 25th, and the big expert session on Wednesday the 23rd of September. The rest is either blown out or too big and messy.

Rusty.

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