Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Manu Bay here in Raglan. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, but there are definitely some windows where it’ll be worth your while.

The forecast kicks off nicely on Monday, July 27th with a solid pulse of groundswell. We’re talking 7ft from the west with a long 13-second period – proper energy heading into that famous point. The wind’s a light south-easterly, giving us clean, cross-off conditions. This is advanced territory at that size, so it’s for the experienced crew only, but the quality is there. The combined swell energy is sitting at strong (1376), so there’s plenty of grunt. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no shocks there.

Into Tuesday morning, July 28th, the swell drops a touch to 5ft, still from the west-southwest with a 12-second period. The wind swings easterly, light and cross-off again, keeping things clean. It’s a decent option for a wider range of surfers, but not quite a standout.

Now, we hit a bit of a lull. From Wednesday, July 29th, right through to the end of the month and into early August, the surf gets smaller, wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, and conditions go pretty ordinary. There’s a big stormy spell from Friday, July 31st into Saturday, August 1st – wind howling out of the west to north-west, swell ramping up over 12ft, but it’s a messy, choppy mess. That’s kite-surf territory, not paddle surfing. The combined energy is massive (5346 on Saturday morning), but the quality is poor. Not one for the log.

Things start to settle again on Sunday, August 2nd, but the wind is howling out of the south at 22 mph. The swell is still a solid 8ft to 8ft from the west-southwest, and despite the wind being cross-off, it’s fresh and strong. The surface might be clean, but it’s a battle to get out. That’s more for the experienced, or maybe just a session to watch.

Here’s the standout window: mark your calendar for Tuesday, August 4th. The morning is looking absolutely glassy, with the wind swinging east at just 3 mph. The swell is 5ft from the west-southwest with a very long 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell, meaning lined-up, powerful waves. The combined energy is strong (1209). This is a point break, so those long-period waves will wrap in beautifully. It's a good size for experienced intermediates as well, not just the pros. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, but with that quality on offer, it’ll be worth sharing the peak. The afternoon looks clean and cross-off too, but the morning glass-off is the pick.

Wednesday, August 5th, and Thursday, August 6th, continue with clean, cross-off conditions and swells around 5ft to 5ft, with period dropping a bit but still good. Good solid surf, just not the absolute gem that Tuesday morning is.

Into the second week, from around August 7th, the swell starts to fade and the period drops. It's all clean, cross-off wind, but the size gets smaller – down to 3ft or less. Surfable, but nothing to write home about. By the weekend of August 9th and 10th, we’re into that small, clean, grovelly range. It’ll be fun on a longboard or a fish, but don’t expect barrels.

So the call is clear: if you can only surf one day in the next fortnight, make it Tuesday, August 4th, early. That glassy, long-period west-southwest swell at Manu Bay is the true standout. The rest is either too messy or too small.

Rusty

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