Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Break

Lat Long: 37.82° S 174.83° E

Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 13 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Raglan-Manu Bay sea temperature is
14.2°C
0.4° 

Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast from 13 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 15 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 20 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,601 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 15 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Raglan-Manu Bay this week:

The surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Raglan-Manu Bay in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 20) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3AM (Tue 15th Sep)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Best Surf 3AM (Tue 15th Sep)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Most Powerful12PM (Sun 20th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards. We’re talking about Raglan-Manu Bay here, a world-class point break that’s fairly exposed to a good SW swell. The water’s sitting at 58° which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off, to be honest. This Sunday the 13th, we’ve got a 8ft WSW swell but it’s coming in with a cross wind at 16 mph and the energy’s all over the place (3731). It’s gonna be a lumpy, cross-shore mess. Monday the 14th isn’t much better – still cross winds and dropping energy. Not worth paddling out for.

Now, Tuesday the 15th is where it finally starts to turn. That morning, the wind drops to zero – dead glassy – and we’ve got a clean 6ft swell from the WSW with a nice 15-second period. The energy’s moderate (1275) but with that glassy surface and a long-period groundswell, this is gonna be the standout of the first week. A point break like Manu Bay will love that long period, giving you proper shaped waves and long, clean rides. It’s fairly consistent and while crowds can show up, it’s worth it for those conditions.

From there, things drop off into small, messy stuff through Wednesday and Thursday – not worth getting wet for. Then Friday the 18th cranks up again. We’re seeing a 10ft swell from the W, pushing strong energy (3992 to 4136) and with just a light cross-onshore breeze. That’s a solid, powerful groundswell, but at 10ft, this is expert territory – too big for most. The wind’s light, so it won’t be too chopped up, but you’ll need your wits about you.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th gets ugly – strong winds, lumpy conditions, and the swell stays big but messy. The 19th has a 10ft swell but a fresh 19 mph cross wind, and the 20th pushes 12ft with moderate cross winds. Not pretty.

The next real highlight is Tuesday the 22nd. That morning you’ve got a massive 15ft swell from the WSW with a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the south. The energy’s off the charts (6030). That’s a very strong, powerful swell – again, only for the most experienced. The wind is light and clean, so the wave face will be smooth, but that size will be intimidating.

The following days stay big and powerful through the 23rd, with another 13ft day, but the winds turn onshore and choppy. Then Thursday the 24th sees the size drop back to a more manageable 6ft, with a clean cross-off breeze and a long 16-second period. That’s a sweet combo for a point break.

Finally, Friday the 25th morning is a gem. You’ve got a 7ft WSW swell, dead glassy, with a 16-second period and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The energy is solid (2308) and the wind is non-existent. That’s another top-tier session before the swell fades out over the weekend.

So, to wrap it up: the two absolute standouts in this 16-day run are Tuesday morning the 15th for that glassy, clean 6ft groundswell – a beautiful session for the experienced crew – and Friday morning the 25th for the same glassy, long-period, 7ft perfection. The big stuff on the 18th and 22nd is for the hardcore chargers only. There’s a gap of a few days with no real recommendations from the 19th to the 21st, and again after the 25th it fades out. Forecasts can always change, but right now, those two mornings are the ones to circle.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Thu night, fresh winds from the WSW by Sat morning).

Sun
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
1
3
4
4
2
2
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
WSW
17
2.5
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
16
2.2
WSW
15
2.1
WSW
15
1.7
WSW
15
1.6
WSW
15
1.3
WSW
14
1.1
WSW
13
0.9
WSW
13
1.1
WSW
13
1.4
WSW
11
1.3
WSW
14
3
W
13
3
W
14
3
W
15
2.2
WSW
15
3
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
9
4.5
WSW
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2844
3544
2948
2348
1776
1275
1091
668
440
269
378
439
642
3177
3992
4136
2049
4237
2053
4409
Wind (km/h)
25
SW
15
SW
20
SW
20
SW
10
SW
0
E
15
SW
10
WSW
10
W
15
WNW
15
NW
15
NE
20
NNE
15
WNW
10
WSW
10
WSW
20
WSW
30
WSW
40
W
30
WSW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross
glassy
cross
cross
cross-on
on
on
cross
cross
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
11:39PM3.02m
11:58AM2.94m
00:13AM2.89m
12:32PM2.83m
00:47AM2.73m
1:07PM2.69m
1:23AM2.55m
1:46PM2.53m
2:07AM2.37m
2:34PM2.36m
3:06AM2.20m
3:39PM2.22m
Low Tide
5:33PM0.11m
5:54AM0.10m
6:09PM0.23m
6:30AM0.22m
6:46PM0.40m
7:06AM0.38m
7:25PM0.59m
7:43AM0.57m
8:09PM0.78m
8:26AM0.76m
9:01PM0.95m
9:19AM0.93m
10:07PM1.06m
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
mod rain
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:22
6:20
6:20
6:18
6:16
6:15
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:08
6:08
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
6:14
 mm
3
8
2
1
2
4
Temp °C
13
12
13
14
12
13
13
12
12
13
13
16
17
13
14
13
12
14
13
13
Feels °C
8
8
9
10
9
11
10
9
9
10
11
12
13
11
11
10
6
7
6
6
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Raglan-Manu Bay Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Raglan-Manu Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Raglan-Manu Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Raglan-Manu Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Raglan-Manu Bay is 42 km (26 miles) from Hamilton. If you plan a holiday in Raglan and West Waikato, look for hotels and other accommodation in Hamilton. Hamilton has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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