Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin' for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next couple of weeks.

We’re in for a bit of a mixed bag to start. The first few days are pretty ordinary, with a small, weak swell and onshore junk. But don’t write it off – there’s a proper pulse of groundswell building late in the first week, and the second week is looking like a ripper for experienced surfers. The water temp is sitting at 57 °F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The weekend kicks off on Saturday the 8th of August, but honestly, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a tiny 3 ft swell from the west with a short 8-second period, and a light cross-shore from the northeast. Combined wave energy is a weak 147, so don’t bother paddling out. Sunday the 9th sees a jump in size to 8 ft from the west-northwest, but it’s onshore from the north-northeast at 9 mph, making it choppy. The energy is ramping up (1640), but it’s marginal. That size is getting big for beginners, and the conditions aren’t doing it any favours.

Monday the 10th drops right back to 3 ft, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds from the west-southwest. That’s proper groundswell, but it’s a little weak for Manu Bay, with energy at 700, and the cross-shore wind isn’t ideal. Still, a point break like this can handle a long period, so it might offer a few nice ones if you’re patient.

Now, Tuesday the 11th of August is a standout. The swell is still only 3 ft, but it’s from the west-southwest with a solid 14-second period, and the wind goes glassy in the afternoon – a light easterly at 3 mph. That’s clean, clean, clean. Combined energy is 471, so it’s not a heavy day, but the quality will be there for a longboard or a funboard. Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th are small and clean in the mornings, but the wind picks up, so it’s a dawn patrol game.

Then we get into the real action. Friday the 14th of August has a glassy morning with a 3 ft 16-second groundswell, but the afternoon brings a quick jump to 7 ft from the west-northwest (10-second period, energy 1311). That’s a bit of a lumpy cross-shore, but the morning is your best bet.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th of August is for experts only. Saturday the 15th sees a 13 ft swell from the west-southwest with 22 mph cross-shore winds – that’s huge, lumpy, and powerful. Combined energy is 2995, and it’s only going to get bigger. Sunday the 16th holds 12 ft from the west-southwest with a 16-second period, and the energy is absolutely pumping at 5502. Wind is a light cross-shore from the southwest, so it’s a bit cleaner, but this is still a heavy, long-period groundswell that will be breaking straight at a beach break. On a point like Manu Bay, it’ll be a beautiful, powerful line-up, but only for the experienced.

The best of the whole forecast is Monday the 17th of August. Clean, light cross-offshore from the south-southwest at 6 mph, with an 8 ft swell from the west-southwest at 11 seconds. Combined energy is 2381, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. That’s the one to circle. Tuesday the 18th is also very good: 6 ft, clean, light cross-offshore, and energy at 1353.

The second week, from the 19th of August onwards, is consistently good. Wednesday the 19th has 5 ft clean in the morning, Thursday the 20th has 6 ft with glassy conditions, and Friday the 21st keeps the clean cross-offshore flow with 5 ft to 4 ft. The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd drops back to smaller 4 ft and 3 ft, but it’s clean and glassy at times. The crowds are listed as “sometimes” at Manu Bay, so you’ll have company, but with this quality, it’s worth it.

So, the standout is Monday the 17th of August – big, clean, and powerful. Tuesday the 18th is a close second. If you’re a beginner, stick to the smaller, cleaner days around the 11th and 22nd. For everyone else, get ready for a proper run of groundswell.

Rusty.

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