Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut to it. The next couple of days are a write-off, so don’t get too excited just yet. We’re looking at a bit of a slow start, but there’s a serious pulse coming through that’ll have the right crew frothing.

Wednesday’s a no-go, just a weak 3ft WSW swell with a short 12-second period and a cross-shore breeze. Not worth the paddle. Thursday’s not much better—swell drops a touch, and the wind turns onshore. You’re better off doing something else.

Then things switch on Friday morning. That’s the standout. Raglan-Manu Bay (Waikato) is looking at a solid 10ft of WSW groundswell with an 18-second period. That’s a proper long-period swell, and with a light cross-offshore wind, it’s going to be clean. The combined energy reading is 5434, which is strong. This is a session for experienced surfers only—it’s well over the 8ft mark. The water temp is 57.6°, which is about average for this time of year, so you’ll want a good hood.

Friday afternoon the wind swings cross-shore and picks up, so the morning is definitely the call. Saturday is huge—13ft—but the wind is howling 25-40 mph onshore and cross, making it messy and dangerous. This is not a paddle-surf day; that setup is more for the kite crew.

Sunday and Monday see the swell back down to the 7-11ft range, but the wind stays cross and lumpy. It’s not going to be clean. The outlook improves Monday morning with a 7ft swell and light winds, but it’s still a bit cross. That trend continues into the middle of the week with moderate 5.5-6ft swells and cross-shore winds.

The real hidden gem is Tuesday the 22nd, about a week and a half out. Early morning looks glassy—winds dropping to 3 mph from the south, and a 5ft WSW swell with a 16-second period. The energy reads 1314, which is moderate, but that glassy surface will make it super fun. It’s not big, but it’ll be clean and lined up. This is another standout, especially for the point break. Later that morning, the wind picks up, so make the most of it.

The following day, the 23rd, has a similar vibe with a light ENE cross-offshore wind and a 5ft swell, which could be fun. And the 24th morning also looks decent with a clean 5.5ft swell.

So, the plan: Friday morning is the big one—big swell, good wind, proper groundswell. If you miss that, the Tuesday the 22nd early session is your next best bet for a clean, cruisy wave. Everything else in between is either too big and windy, or just messy. Keep an eye on the forecast, but this is the shape of things. This is a spot that can be fairly consistent, so even when it looks poor, it can turn around.

Stay stoked.

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