Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a long, mixed bag ahead for Manu Bay. The first week is a bit of a write-off with messy, cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions, but there’s a couple of clean windows worth paddling out for. The real standout looks to be further out in the second week, so keep your eyes on that.

The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Alright, let’s break it down. Starting Friday the 17th through to Sunday the 19th, it’s pretty average. Swell hangs around 6ft to 8ft from the WSW, with a solid 15 to 16 second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, but the cross-shore winds are messing it up with a cross-chop. Combined energy is strong (1546 to 2535), but the conditions are just marginal. Not worth getting excited about.

Then we get a little taste of something better. Monday morning the 20th – glassy conditions with a light easterly breeze, 6ft swell from the WSW, 14-second period, and combined energy at 1204. This is the first real highlight. The surf will be clean and lined up, perfect for the advanced crew who know this point break. Tuesday morning the 21st is also glassy, but the swell drops to 4ft with 13-second period and energy down to 586 – still fun, but smaller.

From Wednesday the 22nd through to Saturday the 25th, it’s a mess again. Swell builds, but the wind swings cross-on and gets strong – up to 22 mph on Saturday. That 10ft on Saturday afternoon with 3050 combined energy is big, but the wind is tearing it apart. It’s more of a kite session than a surf.

Now, Sunday the 26th brings a big pulse – 10ft swell from the west, 14-second period, and combined energy at 3248. The wind is onshore but light (6 mph), so it might be surfable, but the quality is questionable. Still, watch for a window.

The real standout is Monday the 27th. Clean conditions with a light southerly, cross-off wind, 4ft swell from the WSW, 13-second period, and combined energy at 642. The surf will be clean, with good shape. This is your best bet in the first week.

Then from Tuesday the 28th to Wednesday the 29th, the wind gets nasty again – strong cross-onshore and lumpy, with a short period on Wednesday (8 seconds) making it messy. Not worth it.

Thursday the 30th shows a bit of promise with 7ft swell from the WSW, 16-second period, and combined energy at 2308, but the wind is still cross-shore, so it’s marginal.

The big one? Friday the 31st of July through to Saturday the 1st of August. On Friday we’ve got 12ft swell from the west, 14-second period, and combined energy at 4914 – that’s serious power. The wind is cross-shore, so it’s messy, but the size is there. Saturday the 1st of August is the biggest of the whole run: 13ft swell from the west, 16-second period, and combined energy a massive 7588. The wind is light cross-shore, so it’s the best of the big stuff. This is for experts only – way too big for beginners. It’s promising, but being two weeks out, it’s not set in stone.

So, for the whole period, Monday the 27th is your best clean, small-to-medium session, and Saturday the 1st of August is the big-swell standout for the brave. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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