Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a real mixed bag for Raglan over the next couple of weeks. The standout is going to be Manu Bay, but we’ve got to wade through a fair bit of junk to get to the good stuff. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much spot on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet is Sunday the 19th. It’s not gonna be pretty, but there’s a 7 ft swell from the WSW with a 16-second period – that’s proper long groundswell energy (2254). The issue is the cross wind from the SW at 9 mph, making it a bit of a mess. It’s more of a look-and-see session for the brave. Not a standout.

Monday the 20th is where the vibe shifts. Morning sees a 5 ft WSW swell at 14 seconds, with a light E wind at 6 mph blowing cross-off. The energy is solid (1076), and the conditions are clean. This is a proper session. The afternoon holds the same 5 ft swell, still clean with the cross-off breeze. The water temperature anomaly is about average, so it’s comfortable.

Tuesday the 21st is clean again in the morning, with a 4 ft WSW swell, 14-second period, and a light ESE breeze at 3 mph. Energy is moderate (522). It’s smaller, but the point will be running nicely. The afternoon turns a bit average with the cross wind.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Wednesday the 22nd right through to Monday the 27th, it’s poor. The wind goes onshore or cross, and the swell gets blown out. There’s big swell in there – 12 ft and 13 ft on the 25th and 26th – but with strong cross and cross-onshore winds pushing 28 mph, it’s a washing machine. That’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. Honestly, the breaks will be a mess.

Now, for the real standout. Thursday the 23rd morning is worth a mention. The 4 ft WSW swell, 14-second period, and a glassy ENE breeze at 3 mph cross-off. The energy is moderate (668), and it’s clean. This is a solid option, but the real gold is on the horizon.

The best of the week lands on Friday the 31st of July. Morning brings a 10 ft swell from the W, with an 11-second period and a clean cross-off SSW breeze at 9 mph. The energy is strong (2334). This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – it’s a big, powerful, and clean groundswell on the point. The wind is light and offshore, so Manu Bay will be firing. This is the one to circle. The afternoon is a bit meatier with the cross wind, but the morning is a standout.

Saturday the 1st of August has a chance, but the wind goes onshore, so it’s a maybe. The 8 ft W swell at 12 seconds has energy (1888), but the NW wind at 12 mph will mess it up. After that, it’s back to poor conditions through to the end of the window.

So, overall, the best on offer is the morning of Friday the 31st of July at Manu Bay. That’s a proper, solid, clean groundswell for the experienced crew. The early part of the week (Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st) is a good warm-up, but that last Friday is the one to wait for.

Rusty.

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