
Surf Forecasts:
Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 19 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, WSW swell with 3,900 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Raglan-Manu Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Raglan-Manu Bay in the next 16 days are 2.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sun 19th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Sun 19th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a long, mixed bag ahead for Manu Bay. The first week is a bit of a write-off with messy, cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions, but there’s a couple of clean windows worth paddling out for. The real standout looks to be further out in the second week, so keep your eyes on that.
The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.
Alright, let’s break it down. Starting Friday the 17th through to Sunday the 19th, it’s pretty average. Swell hangs around 6ft to 8ft from the WSW, with a solid 15 to 16 second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, but the cross-shore winds are messing it up with a cross-chop. Combined energy is strong (1546 to 2535), but the conditions are just marginal. Not worth getting excited about.
Then we get a little taste of something better. Monday morning the 20th – glassy conditions with a light easterly breeze, 6ft swell from the WSW, 14-second period, and combined energy at 1204. This is the first real highlight. The surf will be clean and lined up, perfect for the advanced crew who know this point break. Tuesday morning the 21st is also glassy, but the swell drops to 4ft with 13-second period and energy down to 586 – still fun, but smaller.
From Wednesday the 22nd through to Saturday the 25th, it’s a mess again. Swell builds, but the wind swings cross-on and gets strong – up to 22 mph on Saturday. That 10ft on Saturday afternoon with 3050 combined energy is big, but the wind is tearing it apart. It’s more of a kite session than a surf.
Now, Sunday the 26th brings a big pulse – 10ft swell from the west, 14-second period, and combined energy at 3248. The wind is onshore but light (6 mph), so it might be surfable, but the quality is questionable. Still, watch for a window.
The real standout is Monday the 27th. Clean conditions with a light southerly, cross-off wind, 4ft swell from the WSW, 13-second period, and combined energy at 642. The surf will be clean, with good shape. This is your best bet in the first week.
Then from Tuesday the 28th to Wednesday the 29th, the wind gets nasty again – strong cross-onshore and lumpy, with a short period on Wednesday (8 seconds) making it messy. Not worth it.
Thursday the 30th shows a bit of promise with 7ft swell from the WSW, 16-second period, and combined energy at 2308, but the wind is still cross-shore, so it’s marginal.
The big one? Friday the 31st of July through to Saturday the 1st of August. On Friday we’ve got 12ft swell from the west, 14-second period, and combined energy at 4914 – that’s serious power. The wind is cross-shore, so it’s messy, but the size is there. Saturday the 1st of August is the biggest of the whole run: 13ft swell from the west, 16-second period, and combined energy a massive 7588. The wind is light cross-shore, so it’s the best of the big stuff. This is for experts only – way too big for beginners. It’s promising, but being two weeks out, it’s not set in stone.
So, for the whole period, Monday the 27th is your best clean, small-to-medium session, and Saturday the 1st of August is the big-swell standout for the brave. Stay patient.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat night, min 12°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
1499 | 1546 | 2034 | 2450 | 2427 | 1396 | 3900 | 1922 | 2535 | 1631 | 1204 | 1032 | 724 | 586 | 461 | 378 | 230 | 269 | 158 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:51PM3.24m | 12:14PM3.00m | 00:36AM3.14m | 12:59PM2.89m | 1:19AM2.99m | 1:43PM2.74m | 2:02AM2.79m | 2:27PM2.59m | 2:46AM2.59m | 3:14PM2.43m | 3:36AM2.41m | 4:08PM2.31m | |||||||
Low Tide | 6:07AM0.13m | 6:24PM0.14m | 6:54AM0.20m | 7:08PM0.27m | 7:40AM0.31m | 7:54PM0.43m | 8:23AM0.46m | 8:40PM0.61m | 9:08AM0.61m | 9:29PM0.79m | 9:56AM0.75m | 10:27PM0.93m | |||||||
— | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | WSW 12 |
1499 | 1546 | 2034 | 2450 | 2427 | 1396 | — | 1922 | 2535 | 1631 | 1204 | 1032 | 724 | 586 | 461 | 378 | 230 | 81 | 158 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | W 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 15 |
— | — | — | — | — | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 57 | 51 | — | 71 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 8 | WSW 17 | WSW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 12 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 209 | 3900 | 372 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 269 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 96 | 96 | 122 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 135 | 96 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 0 | 140 | 140 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Raglan and West Waikato | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Raglan-Manu Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Raglan-Manu Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Raglan-Manu Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Raglan-Manu Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Raglan-Manu Bay is 42 km (26 miles) from Hamilton. If you plan a holiday in Raglan and West Waikato, look for hotels and other accommodation in Hamilton. Hamilton has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










