Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s some proper power on the horizon if you’re willing to wait it out.

The start of the window is scratchy. We’ve got some small, weak swell rolling in for Wednesday afternoon—around 5ft from the WSW, but the period is a bit short and the conditions are only marginal. Thursday and Friday are pretty flat and uninspiring, with wave heights dropping below 3ft. The energy is weak too, with values sitting under 250 for much of this time. It’s the kind of stretch where you’d be better off checking the tide charts than waxing up.

Then things start to stir over the weekend. Sunday the 9th sees a jump in size to 6ft from the WNW, and the energy climbs to 1023 – that’s moderate. The morning looks clean with a light NE cross-offshore breeze, but the afternoon turns ugly with rain and a cross-onshore wind. Monday the 10th is similar – a touch of size but messy, with a cross-shore chop and moderate breeze. The period does get up to 16 seconds on Monday afternoon, but it's onshore and just not worth the paddle.

The first real standout appears on Tuesday the 11th. Manu Bay (Raglan) cleans right up with a light ENE cross-offshore wind, 3ft of WSW swell at 14 seconds, and the energy is sitting at 532. It’s a solid, clean point break session – not huge, but lined up and fun. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is right on the average for this time of year, so nothing crazy there.

That’s a nice little window, but the real juice comes in the second week. The big one to circle is Thursday the 13th. The morning session at Manu Bay looks proper: 6ft of W swell, 13-second period, light ENE winds, and the energy reading is a strong 1306. That’s a day where the point should be firing with clean, well-shaped lines pushing down the bank. It’s marked as “expect very good surf conditions,” and I’d be keen on that.

Friday the 14th gets bigger but trickier. Morning has 7ft from the W with an 18-second period – that’s a long-period groundswell, and energy is pumping at 2567. But the wind is cross-shore and it’s a bit lumpy. The afternoon jumps to 10ft but the period drops to 8 seconds and it’s cross-onshore – that’s a messy, washing-machine sort of wave. Not ideal for the point.

Saturday the 15th is the big one for the crew who charge. We’re looking at 15ft of W swell at 14 seconds, with energy readings through the roof – 8444 in the morning. Now, that’s well over 8ft, so this is strictly for experts. The wind is a gentle cross-shore in the morning, but it’s still a beast. This is a day where the point will be handling a lot of water, and it’s going to be heavy. If you’re not solid, stay on the sand.

Sunday the 16th backs off a touch but it’s still big – 10ft in the morning with a WSW wind that’s cross-onshore and choppy. The afternoon has a fresh cross-shore breeze and lumpy conditions. Not the cleanest.

But then, Monday the 17th shapes up as another standout. The morning session looks excellent for experienced surfers: 8ft from the WSW at 18 seconds, with a clean S cross-offshore wind. The energy is still strong at 3432. This is a proper groundswell with good period, and the point should be holding nice, powerful lines. This is one of the best on offer for the whole forecast.

Tuesday the 18th keeps the quality going with a slightly smaller 5ft from the WSW at 15 seconds, and it’s clean again in the morning with a light S breeze. Energy is 1232 – still solid. Good, consistent waves.

After that, things fade out. Wednesday and Thursday drop back down to under 3ft, with the energy falling below 700. The period stays long, but there’s just not enough swell to get excited about. Thursday the 20th has a small 3ft pulse from the WSW with an 18-second period and a light ENE breeze in the morning – it’s clean, but small.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a write-off. The first real session is Tuesday the 11th. Then the standouts are Thursday the 13th and Monday the 17th – both are solid, clean groundswell days at Manu Bay. Saturday the 15th is huge and only for the brave. The long-period swells at the point are your friend here, so keep an eye on those days.

Rusty out.

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