Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here with the outlook for the coming weeks. We’ve got one genuine standout setting up, and it’s a ripper, but we’ve got to be patient and pick our moments.

The upcoming pattern is all about a long-period groundswell from the southwest that’s gonna pulse through the region. For a spot like Raglan-Manu Bay, this is pure magic. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing too wild there.

The real action kicks off this Friday morning, July 10th. We’ve got a solid 7ft swell from the WSW with a very long 18-second period, packing a massive wallop of energy (2330). That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is a clean cross-off from the south, so it’s going to be a proper session for experienced surfers. This is the standout of the whole period. The swell is big, but it’s a point break, so it handles that size perfectly. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

Friday afternoon drops a little to 6ft but the wind goes a bit cross, making it less ideal. Still plenty of juice (1674), but the morning is the go.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th see the swell easing slightly, but holding very nicely at 4ft to 5ft from the WSW. The wind is mostly cross-off or light, with Sunday afternoon going glassy (0 mph wind). That’s a dream window for clean, user-friendly waves. The energy is still strong (around 1073 to 914), and the 15-16 second period means those waves have great shape.

Monday the 13th the swell drops off to 4ft, still clean but smaller. The energy drops to 478. Good for a grovel, but not a highlight.

Now, we hit a bit of a rough patch. Tuesday the 14th brings a short-period, wind-affected northwest swell (8 seconds, 420 energy) – not the smartest play. The waves are there but the quality is marginal.

Wednesday the 15th is a redemption day. A new pulse of 5ft WSW swell at 12 seconds arrives, with clean cross-off wind. The real winner is Wednesday afternoon: glassy conditions, 5ft and a long 16-second period, ramping up the energy (1569). That’s a magic afternoon session.

Thursday the 16th morning is another excellent window for experienced surfers – 7ft from the WSW (2083 energy) and clean cross-off. That’s a big, powerful point break. The afternoon gets cross-on and choppy, so stick to the morning.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are a mixed bag. Friday morning offers clean 5ft surf with offshore wind, a great window. But the wind picks up later in the week, and from Saturday afternoon onward, the conditions go downhill with fresh southerlies and poor surf. You can get a wave, but it’ll be a battle.

The second week of the forecast is a bit of a write-off. From Sunday the 19th through to the 22nd, strong winds and dropping swell make for poor to marginal conditions. Keep an eye on Tuesday the 21st morning for a brief window of clean 3ft surf, but it’s not worth getting excited about. Wednesday the 22nd morning has a glassy 2ft, but it’s tiny.

Then, on Friday the 24th, we get another late entry. The morning is a bit messy with a 7ft, short-period WNW swell, but the afternoon… whoa. A 10ft pulse from the west (1897 energy) with clean cross-off wind. That’s a massive, powerful swell for experts only. It’s a promise, but long-range, so keep an eye on it.

So, in short: Your absolute best bets are Friday July 10th morning and Thursday July 16th morning for the biggest, cleanest, most powerful waves. And don’t sleep on the glassy Sunday afternoon the 12th or Wednesday afternoon the 15th for a more mellow but still excellent session.

Stay stoked, and don’t forget the wax.

Rusty.

Read more