Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, looking at what we've got on the cards for the next couple of weeks. There's a big, long period groundswell from the WSW that's going to dominate the outlook, but we've got to deal with some pretty wild wind to get the good ones. The water is sitting at 58°, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year, nothing too unusual.

We're kicking off on Sunday, the 6th, but honestly, it's a write-off. The swell is a solid 8ft from the W with a 16-second period, packing a heap of energy (3977), but the wind is a howling onshore from the NNW at 16 mph. It's just messy out there, so I'd give it a miss.

Monday the 7th is still rough. The swell drops a touch to 7ft, but the wind is still up and onshore. Not worth your time.

We finally get a bit of a window on Tuesday morning, the 8th. The swell has backed off to 5ft from the WSW, and the wind swings to a light SSW cross-offshore at 12 mph. The wave energy is moderate (918), and the conditions are clean. It's not going to be huge, but it'll be a fun, rideable wave at Manu Bay. The crowd could be there, though, so keep an eye out.

Wednesday morning, the 9th, is another quiet one. Swell is small at 4ft, but the wind is light and offshore from the ENE at 6 mph. It'll be glassy clean, but you'll be scratching for waves. The energy is weak (393).

The pattern really shifts on Friday, the 11th. A massive swell starts to fill in, hitting 13ft from the WSW with a 16-second period and a massive 9157 of energy. The problem is the wind is a strong cross-shore at 22 mph, making it lumpy and messy. This is for experts only, and if you're thinking of going out, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. This size of swell is going to be a handful for anyone.

Saturday the 12th is the same story – 13ft swell, but the wind is still strong and cross-shore. It's a beast of a wave, but ugly.

Sunday the 13th is still big, with the swell at 12ft to 13ft, and the wind is still cross-shore. It's going to be a messy, lumpy, powerful ocean. Not a day for a fun session.

Now, here's the standout. Monday morning, the 14th of September. The swell is still a solid 8ft from the WSW, with a long 15-second period. The energy is strong (2976). But the game-changer is the wind: a light S at 3 mph, which is a clean cross-offshore. The report says it's "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is a true gem. The wind will be glassy, the waves will have power and shape, and Manu Bay will be at its finest. This is the best on offer. The crowd could be an issue, but for a wave like that, it's worth the company.

Tuesday the 15th is a step down. The swell drops to 4ft, and the wind goes onshore again. Not great.

The second week is a bit of a mixed bag. Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th are back to the big, windy, messy stuff. Swells of 10ft to 12ft, but with strong cross-shore winds. Forget it.

Friday the 18th is a bit calmer, with a 10ft swell and a gentle cross-shore wind. It's not clean, but it's rideable for the experienced.

Saturday the 19th is another potential highlight, but it's further out so less certain. The swell is a solid 10ft from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, packing a massive 5163 of energy. The wind is a light W at 3 mph, maybe a touch cross-on, but it's light enough to keep it clean. The long period will make the waves powerful and well-shaped, but it can be a bit straight at a beach break. At Manu Bay, a point break, it'll be a dream. This is a promising one.

After that, Sunday the 20th is smaller and more onshore, and Monday the 21st is back to strong, messy onshore winds and big swell. We'll have to see how that plays out.

So, the pick of the bunch is the 14th. If you're free, be there. The 19th is a long-range promise that could also be a cracker.

Rusty

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