Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way for Raglan Manu Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, Monday the 10th is a bit of a write-off. There’s a touch of swell in the water – around 3 ft to 4 ft from the WSW – but the wind is messing it up with a cross-shore breeze, and the overall energy is only moderate (658). It’s marginal at best, so I’d give it a miss.

Things start to turn on Tuesday the 11th. The morning shows a clean 3 ft WSW swell with a light cross-off breeze, and then the afternoon goes glassy – dead calm, 3 ft, and that 13-second period means the waves have a bit of shape. The energy is still moderate (468), but for a quiet midweek session, it’s a solid little window.

Wednesday the 12th is a step back – the swell drops to 2 ft-2 ft and the energy fades (221-356). Not worth paddling out.

Thursday the 13th is still small, around 3 ft-3 ft, but there’s a long-period pulse (17 seconds) in the afternoon pushing the energy up to 725. The wind is clean off-shore from the east. It’s still marginal, but there’ll be the odd set that holds up nicely.

Now, here’s where we get excited. Friday the 14th is a beauty. Morning brings a clean 3 ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period and energy climbing to 835. By the afternoon, it’s 4 ft with a gentle offshore breeze – glassy, clean conditions. This is the kind of day that makes you forget the work week. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, so a decent wetsuit is your mate.

Saturday the 15th is the standout. Morning sees 5 ft from the WSW with a 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy jumps to 1221 (strong). The wind is light offshore from the SE, so the waves will be lined up and clean. Then, Saturday afternoon, the swell bumps up to 7 ft, still from the WSW, 16-second period, and the energy rockets to 2187 (very strong). The wind goes glassy. This is top-tier Manu Bay – long, peeling lefts for experienced surfers. It’s going to be a classic. Crowds are possible, but for a wave this good, you won’t mind sharing.

Sunday the 16th is solid but tricky. We’ve got 8 ft from the WSW, but a moderate southerly breeze kicks in, putting a cross-off chop on the face. The energy is massive (2845), but the wind will make it a handful. Only for the experienced crew.

Monday the 17th the swell drops to 5 ft, but a fresh southerly breeze (25-30 km/h) is blowing. It’s clean-ish, but the wind strength will make it bumpy. Not the best.

Tuesday the 18th settles down. The morning has a clean 4 ft from the WSW with a light cross-off breeze and moderate energy (712). It’s a decent option if you missed the weekend.

From Wednesday the 19th through to Monday the 24th, the swell stays in the 3 ft to 5 ft range, mostly clean and glassy at times. There’s nothing huge, but plenty of fun little waves for a longboard or a fish. The energy stays moderate (300-800 range). A nice mellow run for the patient surfer.

Then, Tuesday the 25th – another spike. The morning shows 7 ft from the WSW, 16-second period, light offshore wind, and energy at 2477 (very strong). This is another excellent window for experienced surfers, but remember it’s 9 days out, so keep an eye on it – the long-range promise is there, but it’s not locked in yet. The afternoon gets a bit messy with a cross-shore breeze.

So, if you’re chasing the best, circle Saturday the 15th. That afternoon session is the pick of the entire forecast – big, clean, glassy, and full of energy. Friday the 14th is a close second for a cleaner, slightly smaller session. The long-range Tuesday the 25th is promising, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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