Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Alright, listen up, we’ve got a decent run ahead at Raglan’s Manu Bay, but it’s not all plain sailing – there’s a few days we’ll be sitting out and a couple of proper standouts to get excited about.

We start off into Tuesday the 7th of July with a bit of a mixed bag. The swell’s pushing in from the WSW at a solid 7ft with a long 16-second period, so there’s plenty of energy (2530), but that ESE wind at 15 mph is putting a cross-off chop on it. It’s surfable, but not the best of it. The water temp’s sitting at 59°, which is right about average for this time of year. By afternoon, the swell drops a touch to 6ft, still from the WSW, and the wind eases to 12 mph. It’s clean enough, but the quality is only marginal.

Wednesday the 8th shapes up better. Morning sees the swell at 5ft with a 14-second period, and glassy conditions with a light S breeze at 6 mph. It’s clean and the energy’s still solid (861). That’s a good morning to be out. The afternoon drops to 5ft, and the wind picks up a bit, so it’s less attractive.

Thursday the 9th brings a jump in size – morning is 5ft, but the wind is a fresh 15 mph S cross-off, so it’s a little bumpy. By afternoon, the swell hits 8ft with a 16-second period, giving us a hefty 2824 energy rating. That’s a fair bit of water moving, but with that 19 mph wind, it’s going to be messy. Not the best for a paddle.

Now, the first real standout: Friday the 10th of July. Morning session sees a 7ft groundswell from the WSW, a 17-18 second period, and light S winds at 9 mph. The energy is pumping at 2330, and it’s clean. This is one of the best on offer – big, long-period swell, light wind, and Manu Bay is a point break, so it’ll handle that long period beautifully. Afternoon’s also clean at 6ft.

Saturday the 11th is a gem of a different flavour. Morning is a 4ft swell from the WSW with a 15-second period, but the wind is dead calm – glassy. It doesn’t get any cleaner than that. Energy is solid at 1032. The afternoon gets even smaller at 3ft but the glass sticks. That’s a day for a longboard or a funboard and just enjoying perfect conditions. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so with conditions this good, expect company.

Sunday the 12th holds the clean theme – morning is 5ft with a 16-second period and light E wind, and the afternoon goes glassy again with 5ft and no wind. Still very surfable and clean.

From Monday the 13th, things start to ease off. The swell drops to 4ft and the wind turns cross-shore. By Tuesday the 14th, it’s dropping further to 2ft and the wind gets onshore. Wednesday the 15th brings a spike of swell to 7ft, but it comes with a 19 mph rain shower and cross-onshore wind – lumpy and poor. Not worth it.

Thursday the 16th sees the biggest swell of the run – 10ft from the WSW with a 16-second period and a massive 3712 energy rating. But the wind is howling at 25 mph WSW, cross-onshore and messy. That’s only for the kamikaze crew, and honestly, the setup might be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now.

There’s a gap of poor conditions from the 14th through the 19th, with only a few marginal windows.

The final standout comes on Saturday the 18th of July. Morning session – 10ft of WSW groundswell with an 11-second period, which is short for that size, but the wind is a clean cross-off from the SSW at 9 mph. Energy is 1782. This is excellent for experienced surfers – that’s big, powerful, and clean. If you’re an expert, get after it. Afternoon the swell holds at 10ft but the period stretches to 15 seconds, giving a massive 4515 energy, but the wind goes cross, so it’s not as clean.

Sunday the 19th still has a 8ft swell in the morning, but it’s cross-off and a bit crinkly. By the 20th, it’s fading out again, and from the 21st we’re back into onshore junk.

So, bottom line: Friday the 10th morning and Saturday the 18th morning are the two standouts. Friday is the more consistent, all-rounder session. Saturday is for the big-wave crew.

Rusty.

Read more