Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the cards for the coming weeks at Manu Bay.

We’ve got a solid run of surf ahead, and a couple of sessions that are going to be seriously good. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

Wednesday 8th is a bit of a slow starter. Morning brings a clean 4ft swell from the WSW with a nice 14-second period and a light cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate, and the conditions are clean, but it’s not *the* standout. The afternoon is marginal with a bump in wind, so the morning is your better bet here.

Thursday 9th sees a proper ramp-up. The swell hits 8ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period. That’s a groundswell, and with energy jumping into the very strong range, it’s got real punch. Problem is, the wind is a moderate to fresh cross-off, and the forecast flags it as marginal. That size (over 8ft) puts it firmly in expert-only territory. The long period could make it a bit straight at the beach, but at a point break like Manu Bay, that’s where it’ll shine. If you’re advanced and hungry, the morning will be the pick, but it ain’t for everyone.

Friday 10th is the first real standout. Morning delivers a clean 6ft swell from the WSW, 18-second period – that’s very long period groundswell, meaning real energy and proper shape. The wind is light and cross-off, the combined energy is strong, and the break will be firing. The afternoon gets a bit crossed up with a light cross-shore, so the morning session is the one to point your board at. This is the best morning on offer in the first week.

Saturday 11th and Sunday 12th settle down into very good, solid surf. Saturday has 5ft to 4ft with glassy offshores and clean conditions, while Sunday morning has 5ft with a light breeze. Combined energy sits in the moderate-to-strong range. Both mornings are clean and super surfable, but not the absolute top pick.

Monday 13th drops right off. The swell fades to 3ft and the afternoon gets choppy. Not worth paddling out.

Tuesday 14th is a wildcard. The morning is glassy with a short-period 5ft swell from the WNW and only 8 seconds. That’s low energy and short-period mush, but glassy conditions are always a bonus for a clean, cruisy log session.

Now, Wednesday 15th is a bit of a worry. The afternoon pumps up to a very strong 8ft from the west with a 16-second period and combined energy that’s huge. That’s big, powerful groundswell. But the wind is onshore, and the forecast is marginal. That size and strength with onshore wind will be a washing machine. Only for the brave and the experienced.

Thursday 16th saves the week. Morning hits 7ft from the WSW, 16-second period, light offshore wind, and strong energy. The forecast is excellent for experienced surfers. This is your other standout – the best of the second half of the outlook. Clean, powerful, and well-shaped for the point. The afternoon stays good at 6ft with the same light offshores.

Friday 17th through Sunday 19th turns into a write-off. The swell drops, winds pick up into a fresh breeze, and conditions are poor across the board. There’s about three solid days of no real recommendation here – just keep the board in the car for a scenic drive.

Monday 20th is barely surfable with small, weak swell and moderate wind. Not worth the effort.

Tuesday 21st offers a tiny 2ft wave with a gentle offshore in the morning, but it’s clean. Only for a longboard if you’re desperate.

Wednesday 22nd brings the last real pop of the outlook. Morning hits 7ft from the SW with a 12-second period and a gentle cross-off. Combined energy is strong and the conditions are clean. Excellent for experienced surfers again – a solid finisher.

Thursday 23rd fades into poor conditions with short-period windswell and messy winds. That’s it for the run.

So, if I’m calling it: Friday 10th morning is your absolute standout – clean, long-period groundswell, and solid size. The backup is Thursday 16th morning – powerful, clean, and consistent. Get in the water early for both. Crowds are possible at Manu Bay, so don’t sleep in.

– Rusty

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