Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, the next couple of weeks at Raglan’s Manu Bay are a bit of a slow burn, but there’s some serious gold waiting for those who can pick their moments. We’ve got a long spell of solid, long-period groundswell coming through, but the winds aren’t playing ball for most of it. The real standout is going to be Wednesday, July 15th, and then a beautiful window opens up later on.

We kick things off with a bit of a tease. Monday morning, July 13th, sees clean 4ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period – the water’s sitting at 58°, which is pretty standard for this time of year, no major anomaly. The energy is moderate (565). It’s surfable and clean, but it’s not the main event. By the afternoon, a rain shower and cross-on wind kill it off.

Tuesday, July 14th, is a write-off. A messy 6ft windswell with a short 8-second period and cross-shore winds make for a choppy, frustrating session.

Now, Wednesday, July 15th, is where it gets interesting. We’ve got a serious 6ft swell from the west with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy reading is powerful, a strong 2003. This is proper groundswell. The catch? The wind is a light cross-onshore in the morning, and while it’s clean enough with small ripples, a 16-second period at a beach-barreling point like Manu Bay can make it close out or run a bit straight. You’ll want to be on your game, pick the right bank, and be ready for the long lulls between sets. Afternoon pushes up to 8ft from the west, same long period, but the onshore bumps up. That’s expert territory.

Thursday, July 16th, is similar but a touch smaller. 8ft from the WSW, 16-second period, light cross-shore wind. Still powerful energy (2429), still that caveat for the long period, but a lot of fun if you know the wave.

Friday and Saturday (17th and 18th) see the swell drop back to a very consistent 6ft from the WSW, with the period shortening to a still-juicy 14 seconds. Winds are light. Saturday morning, July 18th, is the pick of that stretch: cross-offshore breeze, clean. Combined energy is still strong (1267). This is a classic Manu Bay morning.

Sunday, July 19th, bumps up again to a strong 7ft, 16-second groundswell from the WSW. Light cross-shore wind. Powerful energy (2310). Again, that long period means it’s for the experienced crew only.

Then, from Monday, July 20th, the wind finally plays ball. This is the true standout window. Monday morning has a clean 5ft WSW groundswell with a 14-second period and a lovely cross-offshore breeze from the ESE (1076 energy). By the afternoon, the wind goes full offshore, groomed. Beautiful, clean 5ft surf. This is the best combination of size, period, and wind in the whole forecast.

Tuesday, July 21st, keeps the offshore flow. Morning has 4ft from the WSW, 13 seconds, with a gentle offshore from the SSE. Clean, fun, and way more manageable. Afternoon is 4ft with a cross-offshore. Definitely the best option for most surfers on that day.

Wednesday and Thursday, July 22nd and 23rd, drop off significantly. We hit a gap of a couple of days here where the swell gets small (2ft to 3ft). While the wind is clean and offshore, there’s just not enough juice for a proper session. Hold out.

Friday, July 24th, morning, you can sneak a 3ft set with a cross-offshore – it’s rideable but small. The stretch from July 25th to 27th is another promising window, but it’s over a week away now. Saturday, July 25th, builds a bit, with 4ft from the west, but the period drops to a short 8 seconds. The real resurgence is Sunday, July 26th. We’ve got a morning 3ft from the WSW with an incredible 18-second period – very long period, excellent shape, and a clean cross-offshore wind. Energy is moderate but high-quality (749). Afternoon rises to 3ft from the west, 17 seconds, same clean wind. The 27th and 28th keep this clean, cross-offshore pattern alive with 3ft and 6ft swells, all with longer periods. Book your time off.

Bottom line: The standout is the offshore window from Monday, July 20th, afternoon, through Tuesday, July 21st, for the cleanest, most user-friendly combo of decent swell and perfect wind. For the big-wave charger, Wednesday, July 15th, is the biggest push but comes with a long-period caveat. There’s a small gap mid-week, then the last few days of the run look promising again.

Rusty.

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