Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up on the West Coast.

The first swell of the run shows up on Monday the 20th of July, and it’s a solid start. Manu Bay (Raglan) is the only break on the radar, and it’s a point break that loves a good SW groundswell. Monday morning we’ve got a 5ft swell from the WSW, with a long 14-second period, and light east winds keeping it cross-off and clean. Water temp is 58°, which is about average for this time of year. The combined swell energy is strong (1076). This is a standout for the first week – clean, punchy, and that long period means the wave will be lined up and juicy. Crowds are possible at Manu, but for a Monday morning, you might score a bit of room.

The surf drops off a bit through Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday morning still has a clean 4ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, but the energy drops (522). By Wednesday, the wind turns cross and bumpy, and the swell is small and weak. From Thursday onward, the wind gets messy with cross-on and onshore flow, and the quality tanks. Friday the 24th is a write-off – onshore wind and a messy 6ft swell. That’s the low point.

Then we hit a real rough patch. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see huge swell – up to 13ft – but with howling WSW winds, 22-25 mph, making it a lumpy, churned-up mess. The energy is massive (over 8000), but it’s not for paddling. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. That continues through Monday and Tuesday the 27th and 28th – still big, still windy, still ugly.

The light at the end of the tunnel? Wednesday the 29th shows signs of improvement. Wind drops to a moderate breeze, and the swell settles back to 8ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, energy around 2500. Still a bit cross and lumpy, but it’s getting there.

And then, the real prize. Friday the 31st of July morning. This is the one to circle. The forecast is for a 15ft swell from the west, a 17-second period, and glassy conditions with a light SE breeze. The combined energy is 10990 – that’s exceptional. This is a big, powerful groundswell, and at Manu Bay, that long period will produce long, running walls. It’s only for experts at this size, but it’s as good as it gets. The offshore wind in the morning will have it looking like a dream. Saturday the 1st of August morning is also excellent – 15ft, cross-off wind, clean, but with a slightly shorter period (15 seconds).

Into the second week, Sunday the 2nd of August morning has a smaller 8ft swell from the WSW with a 13-second period, and light cross-off winds – clean and fun for experienced surfers. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th see a return of 10ft to 12ft swells, still from the WSW, with east winds keeping it cross-off and clean. The period holds around 14 seconds, so good energy. These are promising but less certain.

Overall, the standout is the morning of Friday the 31st of July – get that date in the calendar. The run-up is rough, but the payoff is epic.

Rusty.

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