Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the local haunts.

We’ve got a bit of a rough start, to be honest. The first few days are a write-off thanks to messy winds and funky conditions. But hold on, because there’s a window of clean, lined-up swell coming. The real standout is going to be a specific morning next week, but we’ll get to that.

The water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Alright, let’s break it down. Sunday the 19th is a pass. We’ve got a 8ft swell from the WSW, but it’s coming in with a 16-second period and a stiff cross-breeze. The energy is decent (2925), but the wind is just ruining it. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 20th is where it starts to get interesting. The morning sees the swell drop to 5ft, still from the WSW, but the wind swings around to a light cross-offshore breeze from the ENE. The energy is still solid (1076), and the wave comment says “clean.” This is an excellent chance to get some long, drawn-out lines at Raglan-Manu Bay (point). The 14-second period means there’s good power, and the light offshore wind will keep the faces glassy. The afternoon is similar, just a touch smaller at 5ft, but still clean. Crowds can be a thing here sometimes, so get out early.

Tuesday the 21st morning is still clean, with a light offshore wind and 4ft swell. It’s a smaller day, but still fun if you’ve got a longboard. The energy is down to 522, but it’s clean. The afternoon turns sour when the wind goes cross-shore.

From Wednesday the 22nd right through to the end of the first week, it’s a mess. The wind goes onshore or cross-shore, the energy drops, and the quality disappears. There’s a big spike in swell on the 25th and 26th, with massive 13ft to 15ft waves, but the wind is howling. 28 mph onshore winds on the 25th and gusts up to 31 mph on the 26th mean it’s gonna be a frothy, blown-out disaster. Not for paddling. That’s kite-surfing territory if anything.

Then we get to the big one. Sunday, August 2nd. The afternoon session is looking like the best of the whole 16-day window. The swell is pumping at 21ft from the W, with a very long 14-second period. The energy is massive at 16325, and the wind is light enough with a moderate breeze. The catch? The wind is onshore, but the comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” with a score of 7/10. For a wave of this size, a light onshore breeze can actually be your friend, offering a bit of texture. But this is massive. 21ft waves are for experts only. If you’re not a seasoned charger, stay on the beach and watch. The potential is huge for a few deep-water barrels if the tide plays ball, but it’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not set in stone.

After that, the swell drops back, but the wind turns nasty again on the 3rd, so that single Sunday afternoon is the one to circle.

Rusty

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