Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Raglan over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got one spot that’s been singled out, so we’ll keep it tight.

We’re starting off on Saturday the 12th of September, and it’s a bit of a rough start. There’s a big, beefy 13ft WSW groundswell rolling in with a 16-second period, and the combined energy is a hefty 7856 – proper strong. But the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 22 mph, which is just going to chop it up and make it lumpy. It’s poor conditions for paddling, honestly. This continues into Sunday and Monday, with the wind staying cross or cross-off, and the swell slowly dropping from 12ft to 8ft. The energy is still very strong, between 6582 and 2948, but the clean windows are small. Monday morning is the first time we see “clean” conditions, with a gentle cross-off breeze on an 8ft swell, but the score is still only a 3, so it’s marginal.

The middle of the week (Tuesday 15th to Thursday 17th) sees the swell drop further to around 3ft to 6ft, with energy falling into the hundreds to low thousands. Winds are light to gentle but often cross or onshore, so the surf is small and bumpy. Not worth getting wet for.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Friday the 18th of September morning is a real standout. We’ve got a clean 5ft groundswell from the WSW with a 16-second period, and a gentle cross-off breeze from the south. The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers, and the energy is a moderate 1830. The wave direction is a solid SW, matching up with the optimum. This is the pick of the run so far for a clean, well-shaped wave. Raglan-Manu Bay is a point break and fairly exposed, so this long-period swell should set up well. Remember, it’s advanced territory with 5ft faces, and it can get crowded sometimes.

We get another nice morning on Sunday the 20th of September. The wind swings to a gentle offshore from the SE, the swell is 10ft from the WSW with a shorter 9-second period, energy is 1721. It’s clean but that shorter period means it might be a bit fat and less defined, though still fine for experienced surfers.

Then, mark your calendar for Monday the 21st of September morning. It’s glassy – zero wind – and the swell is 8ft from the WSW with a 15-second period. Energy is 2322, and conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is another absolute beauty. The glassy conditions will make it smooth as silk.

After that, the forecast gets a bit more mixed. We see some promising signs on the 22nd and 23rd of September. Tuesday the 22nd has a clean 8ft swell with a gentle offshore, but the period drops to 11 seconds. Wednesday the 23rd morning brings a solid 10ft, 17-second groundswell with a clean cross-off breeze and energy of 4290 – very strong. But the wind picks up to a fresh 19 mph in the afternoon, ruining it. Thursday the 24th is another clean morning with 8ft from the WSW and a 16-second period.

After that, from the 25th of September through to the 27th, the swell eases back to 5ft to 6ft, and the winds are mostly onshore or cross, so the quality drops off.

Overall, the standout sessions are clear: Friday the 18th morning and Monday the 21st morning are your gems. Both have clean, offshore or glassy winds, moderate to strong groundswell of 8ft and 5ft, and excellent conditions. The wave direction matches up perfectly for the point. It’s going to get busy at Manu Bay, especially on those days, but it’s worth it.

There’s a bit of a dry spell from the 12th to the 17th of September with poor conditions, so don’t bother until Friday.

Rusty.

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