Surf Forecasts:
Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 12 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 17s period, WSW swell with 8,868 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Raglan-Manu Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 1.7m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Raglan-Manu Bay in the next 16 days are 4.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 8ft (2.4m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu.
The next sixteen days are a real mixed bag at Manu Bay. It’s a classic point break that lines up best with a solid SW groundswell, and there’s plenty of size on the way, but the wind is going to be the main character here—and not always in a good way. The water temp is sitting at 58°, right around where you’d expect for the time of year, no surprises there.
The standout window is looking like Thursday the 24th of September. That morning, it’s all coming together: a massive 16ft swell from the WSW with a period of 14 seconds, and glassy conditions with the wind swinging out of the east at just 3 mph. The combined energy reading is a strong 8287. This is big, powerful, long-period groundswell—absolutely perfect for a point break like Manu Bay, where it will groom into proper walls. That said, at over 8ft, this one is strictly for the experienced crew. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so get in early.
Earlier in the week, Friday the 11th of September is worth a look. The morning session is clean with a 10ft WSW swell, 18-second period, and a light 6 mph cross-off breeze from the south. That’s a lot of energy (5328) and that very long period will produce some beautiful, long-running lines down the point. Again, advanced surfers only at this size.
The week after, look at Thursday the 17th of September. The afternoon lights up with a 8ft WSW groundswell, a 14-second period, and light cross-off winds from the SSW at 6 mph. Clean conditions and solid energy (2665). Still a bit too big for beginners, but a good option for the experienced.
There’s a long gap of poor conditions between Saturday the 12th and Wednesday the 16th where the wind just blows too hard from the west and southwest, making things lumpy and messy. Not much to get excited about there.
From the 22nd onward, we see some serious size returning, but the wind keeps it from being clean until that Thursday. The 25th and 26th of September still have decent leftover swell in the 10ft to 6ft range, with glassy mornings, so those are worth keeping in the back of your mind for a quieter, cleaner session.
So, the pick of the pack is Thursday the 24th of September—if you’re an expert and you can handle the size, that’s the day to be on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the S on Fri morning, strong winds from the SW by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | W 10 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 5328 | 5958 | 7019 | 6997 | 6910 | 5819 | 6235 | 5534 | 3544 | 2649 | 2379 | 1559 | 1393 | 1275 | 577 | 277 | 162 | 1069 | 620 | 2665 | 2951 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:07AM2.98m | 10:25PM3.13m | 10:46AM3.02m | 11:03PM3.11m | 11:23AM3.01m | 11:39PM3.02m | 11:58AM2.94m | 00:13AM2.89m | 12:32PM2.83m | 00:47AM2.73m | 1:07PM2.69m | 1:23AM2.55m | 1:46PM2.53m | 2:07AM2.37m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:16PM0.06m | 4:38AM0.02m | 4:55PM0.04m | 5:17AM0.03m | 5:33PM0.11m | 5:54AM0.10m | 6:09PM0.23m | 6:30AM0.22m | 6:46PM0.40m | 7:06AM0.38m | 7:25PM0.59m | 7:43AM0.57m | 8:09PM0.78m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  |  | |  | |  | | | | | | |  |  |  | | |
 | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 8 | 3 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | W 10 | W 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 |
| kJ | 5328 | 5958 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3544 | 2649 | 2379 | 1559 | 1393 | 1275 | 577 | 277 | 151 | 1069 | 561 | 2665 | 2951 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 20 | W 18 | W 18 | WSW 16 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 6 | 24 | 620 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 6 | W 6 | W 6 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 7019 | 6997 | 6910 | 5819 | 6235 | 5534 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 60 | 76 | 162 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 109 | 179 | 122 | 110 | 129 | 179 | 141 | 140 | 140 | 236 | 140 | 96 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 249 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 266 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Raglan and West Waikato | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Raglan-Manu Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Raglan-Manu Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Raglan-Manu Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Raglan-Manu Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Raglan-Manu Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Raglan-Manu Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Raglan-Manu Bay is 42 km (26 miles) from Hamilton. If you plan a holiday in Raglan and West Waikato, look for hotels and other accommodation in Hamilton. Hamilton has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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