Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

It's a bit of a story with this one. We're starting off with a poor run of weather and wind that’s going to make the first few days a write-off, but after that, Manu Bay (Raglan) is shaping up to have some absolutely stunning sessions for the more experienced crew. The water temp is sitting right around 58°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The first few days are a no-go. Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are a mess with strong, messy onshore winds and rain. The swell is actually building on Saturday, getting up to a chunky 15 ft with a massive wave energy (8018), but it's all blown out and cross-shore. No good for a paddle.

Now, Sunday the 26th is where the magic starts. The wind swings around to a light, clean cross-offshore from the ESE in the morning, and you've got a powerful 10 ft west swell with a very long 15-second period. Combined energy is a strong 4129. This is proper groundswell. For a point break like Manu Bay, this is the recipe for perfection, but it's sizeable at 10 ft, so this is for advanced surfers only. The afternoon on Sunday is still clean, with an 8 ft swell from the WSW. This is the standout of the entire forecast period, and it's happening this weekend. Don't be surprised if the lineup is busy, as crowds are sometimes a factor here.

Moving into Monday the 27th, the trend continues with a beautiful morning. Clean, light cross-off winds and a 7 ft west swell (energy 1355). Another excellent day for the advanced crew. It drops off a little by the afternoon, but still clean.

The following week has some good moments, but nothing that hits the heights of that Sunday. Tuesday the 28th morning is dead glassy with a 4 ft swell, which is a nice, mellow option. The 31st of July has a clean afternoon with a 5 ft swell and clean conditions. By the 2nd of August, the morning looks glassy again with a 5 ft swell.

Looking into the second week, things get interesting again. The morning of Monday the 3rd of August has a 4 ft west swell, but the period is a massive 21 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell. The energy is strong (1254), but those long gaps mean it might be a bit too straight for the beach, but on a point like Manu Bay, it should be lined up. The afternoon of the 3rd looks even better with a 5 ft swell and long period, clean and good for experienced surfers.

Then Tuesday the 4th of August through Thursday the 6th brings a fresh offshore wind pattern, but it’s accompanied by light rain. The swell is solid, 8 ft down to 6 ft, with strong energy. The wind is fresh offshore, which will keep the faces clean, but the forecast calls the conditions marginal. It’s promising, but less certain this far out. The final few days, the 7th and 8th, look like a nice clean fade-out with gentle offshore winds and dropping swell back to the 3 ft range.

So, to sum it up: the first two days are a washout. The absolute standout is the morning of Sunday the 26th of July. After that, the morning of Monday the 27th is also a cracker. Everything else is good, but those two are the ones to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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