Raglan-Manu Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards. We’re talking about Raglan-Manu Bay here, a world-class point break that’s fairly exposed to a good SW swell. The water’s sitting at 58° which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off, to be honest. This Sunday the 13th, we’ve got a 8ft WSW swell but it’s coming in with a cross wind at 16 mph and the energy’s all over the place (3731). It’s gonna be a lumpy, cross-shore mess. Monday the 14th isn’t much better – still cross winds and dropping energy. Not worth paddling out for.

Now, Tuesday the 15th is where it finally starts to turn. That morning, the wind drops to zero – dead glassy – and we’ve got a clean 6ft swell from the WSW with a nice 15-second period. The energy’s moderate (1275) but with that glassy surface and a long-period groundswell, this is gonna be the standout of the first week. A point break like Manu Bay will love that long period, giving you proper shaped waves and long, clean rides. It’s fairly consistent and while crowds can show up, it’s worth it for those conditions.

From there, things drop off into small, messy stuff through Wednesday and Thursday – not worth getting wet for. Then Friday the 18th cranks up again. We’re seeing a 10ft swell from the W, pushing strong energy (3992 to 4136) and with just a light cross-onshore breeze. That’s a solid, powerful groundswell, but at 10ft, this is expert territory – too big for most. The wind’s light, so it won’t be too chopped up, but you’ll need your wits about you.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th gets ugly – strong winds, lumpy conditions, and the swell stays big but messy. The 19th has a 10ft swell but a fresh 19 mph cross wind, and the 20th pushes 12ft with moderate cross winds. Not pretty.

The next real highlight is Tuesday the 22nd. That morning you’ve got a massive 15ft swell from the WSW with a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the south. The energy’s off the charts (6030). That’s a very strong, powerful swell – again, only for the most experienced. The wind is light and clean, so the wave face will be smooth, but that size will be intimidating.

The following days stay big and powerful through the 23rd, with another 13ft day, but the winds turn onshore and choppy. Then Thursday the 24th sees the size drop back to a more manageable 6ft, with a clean cross-off breeze and a long 16-second period. That’s a sweet combo for a point break.

Finally, Friday the 25th morning is a gem. You’ve got a 7ft WSW swell, dead glassy, with a 16-second period and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The energy is solid (2308) and the wind is non-existent. That’s another top-tier session before the swell fades out over the weekend.

So, to wrap it up: the two absolute standouts in this 16-day run are Tuesday morning the 15th for that glassy, clean 6ft groundswell – a beautiful session for the experienced crew – and Friday morning the 25th for the same glassy, long-period, 7ft perfection. The big stuff on the 18th and 22nd is for the hardcore chargers only. There’s a gap of a few days with no real recommendations from the 19th to the 21st, and again after the 25th it fades out. Forecasts can always change, but right now, those two mornings are the ones to circle.

Rusty.

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