Sao Pedro Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch of coast is looking pretty ordinary for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a long, flat spell on the cards, and the surf just isn’t showing up. But that’s the way it goes sometimes, so let’s walk through it.

The outlook starts with nothing much at all. From Thursday the 6th through to Sunday the 9th, we’re looking at tiny, gutless waves—nothing over about `0.3ft` if you can even call it that. There’s some clean cross-off wind around, but with no energy behind it, it’s not worth paddling out for. The water’s sitting at `68°F`, which is about average for this time of year, so at least it’s comfortable while you’re standing on the beach wondering why you bothered.

We get a little flicker of life around Monday the 10th. Still small, but the swell direction swings to the west with a period of `7s` and `6s`. That’s short-period stuff, and the energy is weak—only `24` and `32` on the combined scale. It’s not going to get your heart racing. The spot here, Sao Pedro, is a point break that rarely breaks, so this sort of tiny, short-period swell isn’t going to do it any favors. It’s a sheltered spot, exposed to SW swell, and this is not that.

Then we go quiet again. From Tuesday the 11th through to Friday the 14th, it’s mostly flat, with just a sniff of swell on Friday afternoon—`0.3ft` from the south with a long `20s` period. That’s a tease, not a surf. The energy readings are in single digits and low teens. It’s just not happening.

The weekend of the 16th and 17th sees a bit more of that long-period swell, but it’s still tiny. We’re talking `0.3ft` at `18s`, then `16s`, then `15s`. The wind picks up, getting into the `22 mph` range on Saturday afternoon, which is cross-off but strong. A clean `0.3ft` at a long period is still a `0.3ft` wave. Not worth the effort.

Into the following week—Monday the 18th through Thursday the 21st—we finally see the swell size nudge up slightly, to `0.7ft`. The direction shifts more to the SSW, and periods are in the `13s` to `16s` range. The combined energy starts to show a bit more life, with readings of `31`, `37`, and `20`. But honestly, `0.7ft` is still barely a ripple. The wind gets stronger as the week goes on, with Thursday afternoon and Friday seeing strong breezes at `25 mph` and `28 mph`. That’s not surf conditions; that’s whitecap conditions.

Now, here’s the thing. This break, Sao Pedro, is a point break that rarely breaks. For it to work, we’d need a proper SW groundswell with some size. What we’ve got on offer is a long stretch of nothing, with a few pulses of long-period energy that are just too small to do anything. Long-period swell can be great at a point break, but only if there’s some height behind it. This isn’t that.

There are no standout days here. No surfer’s dream in this window. If you’re just dying to get wet, maybe Monday the 10th with that little W pulse, but even then, it’s a stretch. The setup with the strong cross-off winds and minimal swell makes this look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

Stay patient. Forecasts change, and this flat run won’t last forever. But for now, you’re better off finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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