Sandy Mouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Overall, it’s a pretty grim start. Sandy Mouth is getting some swell, but the wind is just messing it up, making it choppy and ugly. We’ve got a solid run of poor conditions all the way through the first week and into the start of the second. You’d be mad to paddle out for most of it. The only real glimmer of hope – and I mean the only one worth getting excited about – is a late window.

Let’s break it down. Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are a write-off, with cross-onshore winds from the NW and SSW making a mess of the 4ft to 5ft of west swell. The combined swell energy is moderate at best, hitting 287 on Wednesday morning and dropping away. By Friday the 11th and the weekend, it’s still cross-on, with a bit of a longer period (10 seconds) on the Friday morning, but the wind keeps it poor. The 6ft on Saturday the 12th afternoon is the biggest of this early run, but with a fresh 22 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s just a lumpy, blown-out mess – more for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddle board.

The start of the second week is a bit of a dead zone. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th have tiny, weak swell (2ft to 3ft) and still cross-on wind. The energy is low, down in the double digits or low hundreds. Not worth the drive.

Then we hit a turning point. Wednesday the 16th morning, the wind shifts to a cross-off from the SSE, and the swell jumps to 6ft with a 7-second period. The comment says “clean,” but the score is still a zero, so it’s not a standout. The real standout is Wednesday the 16th afternoon: 8ft of west swell, a 10-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 1170. That’s serious power. The wind is cross-shore though, and it’s only rated a 2/10, but for a surfer who knows a beach break, that’s a window of opportunity. This is a big, powerful swell, and with a 10-second period, it’ll have some shape. For experts only, as 8ft is solid.

But the *real* highlight, the one you’ve been waiting for, is a week and a half away. On the 23rd of September, Wednesday morning, the wind goes offshore from the east at 16 mph, and we’ve got 2ft of WNW swell, but with a very long 13-second period. The combined energy is 268, and the conditions are “clean.” That’s a good sign. Then, Wednesday afternoon is the absolute best of the whole forecast. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph offshore from the east, and the swell jumps to 7ft from the WNW, with an 11-second period. The combined energy hits 937, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions” with a score of 3/10. That is a classic clean, lined-up west swell with offshore wind. The long period (11 seconds) means it’ll have real power and shape, but at a beach break like Sandy Mouth, it might be a bit straight and closey. Still, for a point break or a reef, this would be an absolute dream. This is the standout of the whole 16 days, but it’s a long way out, so don’t book the week off just yet.

After that, the 24th of September has a drop back to 3ft, but still offshore wind, so a decent consolation. The 22nd of September has a freak 17-second period, but only 0.7ft of swell, which is just a ghost.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a total write-off except for that big, powerful 8ft on the 16th, which is for experts only. The real gem is the 23rd of September afternoon, with clean, offshore winds and a solid 7ft west swell. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. It’s a long way off, so keep your fingers crossed.

Rusty.

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