Rye Ocean Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty.

Well, we’ve got a bit of a story unfolding here at Rye Ocean Beach. The water’s sitting at 56°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on with the temps. The trouble is, for the next couple of days, we’re staring at a proper swell event – waves are pushing 10ft and 12ft already, with a combined energy reading of 5982 and then a massive 10176 – that’s serious, powerful stuff. But with a strong 19 mph cross-on and onshore wind, plus rain showers, it’s just a big, lumpy mess. Not worth paddling out for. That’s Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd morning, but Sunday arvo things start to look interesting.

On Sunday afternoon the 23rd, we get a light 6 mph offshore breeze from the NE, the swell drops to a still-chunky 7ft from the SW, and the period stretches out to a long 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is 2891, which is moderate to strong. The waves are going to be clean, but that size and period at a beach-and-reef setup can make it a bit shifty and the sets will be widely spaced. It’s a lot of power for a beginner; this is for the confident crew.

Then we hit a bit of a lull from Monday the 24th right through to Thursday the 27th. Swell drops to 5ft up to 6ft, but winds are mostly cross-off or light, so it’s clean. The energy is weak to moderate – dropping as low as 322 on Thursday morning. These are marginal days; you might get a fun little wave if you’re desperate, but nothing to get excited about.

Now, here’s where we see the standout. On Friday morning the 28th, we get another pulse of proper SW groundswell – 8ft with a 17-second period. That’s a long, powerful groundswell. Combined energy hits 3294. The wind is cross-shore from the NW at 16 mph, so it’ll be a bit chunky, but the juice is there. This swell might push through a bit too much for the beach, and at this size, it’s definitely pushing past beginner territory and into solid, expert-only conditions. The optimum swell direction from the guidance is SW, and that’s exactly what’s coming.

We then roll into a stretch from Saturday the 29th through to Tuesday the 1st of September where we’ve still got solid SW swell – 7ft to 8ft – and the wind occasionally goes glassy or cross-off. On Sunday afternoon the 30th, we get a magic window: a 3 mph glassy wind, the swell at 7ft with a 14-second period, and the water is described as glassy. That’s a rare treat – smooth, clean, powerful waves. The combined energy is 1740, so moderate to strong. This is a top pick for experienced surfers who want to score clean, solid peaks at Rye.

From Tuesday the 1st of September onward, the size stays big – often 8ft to 8ft – with plenty of strong energy readings (up to 3159). The wind is often cross-off or cross-shore, so conditions are workable, but it’s all too big for anyone but experts. By Thursday the 3rd, the wind cranks up to 28 mph onshore, and it’s a total write-off. Friday the 4th is also messy.

Then, in the second week, we see a monster on the horizon. On Sunday the 6th of September, we’ve got a massive 18ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, cross-off wind from the NNE at 16 mph, and the combined energy is an enormous 31094 – that’s very strong wave energy. It’s clean, but that’s only for the most hardcore big-wave chargers. It’s promising, but long-range forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it.

So, the real standouts in this 16-day window are Sunday afternoon the 23rd for the clean, long-period groundswell, and Sunday afternoon the 30th for that glassy, clean, solid session. Both are expert-level waves, but they’re the best on offer. Expect crowds to be possible on those clean days, as surfers will be keen to get out. If you’re a beginner, give this whole period a miss.

- Rusty

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