Rye Ocean Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. This is a tricky one. The whole 16-day window is a tough read, with only a couple of moments where things line up, but you have to dig through a lot of wind and oversized swell to find them. For the first week, it's pretty much a write-off. The real potential doesn't show until the back half of the forecast, and even then, it's a game of inches.

Starting us off, the first sniff of a rideable wave isn't until Monday the 14th of September. Even then, Rye Ocean Beach is getting a 3ft swell from the SW, but it's blowing onshore at 9 mph. The water is sitting at 57°F, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, which is a nice surprise. But don't get your hopes up; the conditions are poor, with weak combined energy. It's a hard pass.

The following week is a washout. From Tuesday the 15th through to Thursday the 16th, we've got a massive pulse of SW energy rolling in, peaking at a combined energy of 4767 on Tuesday. That's a lot of water moving, but it's hitting the beach with 28 mph onshore winds. Total chaos. Even though the swell is big, it's just a wall of whitewater. Best to stay home and watch the spray.

We get a bit of a breather on Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the SW, and we finally get some clean, cross-off winds from the NNW. The combined energy is still moderate, and the offshore breeze will clean things up nicely. It's marginal at best, but it's the best we've got for that first week. Don't expect perfection, but a dawn patrol could be worthwhile.

Then we hit another wall of grim. From Sunday the 20th to Tuesday the 22nd, the wind swings back onshore or cross-on, and the swell jumps back up. It's going to be lumpy and messy. By Monday the 21st, the swell is pushing 8ft from the SW, and while the wind is light, it's still onshore. That's too much size for this break without a proper offshore.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. The standout window opens Wednesday the 23rd of September. We get a clean, offshore breeze from the NNE at just 9 mph, grooming a 4ft SW groundswell with a 13-second period. The combined energy is low, but the wind is glassy offshore at Rye Ocean Beach. The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions," and I believe it. The set waves will be clean and have some push. This is easily your best bet in the whole 16-day run. It won't be huge, but it will be fun and clean. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so get in early.

After that, the end of the month is bleak. Thursday the 24th has a tiny 2ft swell, and from Friday the 25th right through to the 29th, we're back to strong winds and big, unruly SW swells over 8ft. The combined energy hits 4566 on Saturday the 26th, but with onshore rain and messy winds, it's a kite-surfing show, not a paddle-surfing one. Too much size and wind for a fun session.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are mostly a write-off. The only real standout is the morning of Wednesday, 23rd September. If you can, aim for that window. Otherwise, the early hours of Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are your only other chance to get wet without getting hammered.

Rusty.

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