Rye Ocean Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Rye Ocean Beach are a real mixed bag, and honestly, a bit of a frustrating watch for anyone wanting to get wet. The pattern is messy, with a lot of strong wind and oversized swell swooping in, but there are a couple of golden windows that’ll make it all worthwhile if you time it right.

The first week is mostly a write-off. Sunday the 12th through Tuesday the 14th are a total bust – strong cross-shore and cross-onshore winds (28 mph) are just thrashing a big, lumpy 8 ft to 13 ft SW swell. The wave energy is massive (over 2000, hitting 13,516 on Tuesday), but it’s pure chaos, not surfable. You’d have more fun kite surfing than paddling out in that. Wednesday the 15th is a tease: the swell drops to 8 ft to 8 ft from the SW, period at 14 seconds, and the wind goes glassy on the afternoon – but it’s still too big for this break, with the combined energy reading 1857. It’s frustrating because it looks clean, but the power is just too much for a beginner-friendly spot.

Thursday the 16th is where it gets interesting. The morning is still a bit messy with a gentle cross-shore and 6 ft SW swell, but the afternoon turns glassy. The swell drops to 6 ft, period 14 seconds, and the combined energy sits at 1440. That’s still a solid amount of juice, so it’s not for the faint-hearted – more for experienced surfers. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no wetsuit drama.

Friday the 17th is another “almost” day. The swell is 7 ft to 8 ft SW, with a long 15-16 second period, and the wind goes glassy on the afternoon. But again, it’s flagged as too big for the break, with energy over 2000. The sets will be clean and powerful, but only for the brave.

Then we hit a lull. Saturday the 18th has a drop to 4 ft-5 ft SW, but the wind is a moderate cross-off, and the energy is low (582-738). The surf is marginal and inconsistent. Sunday the 19th is even smaller (3 ft-3 ft) but with a freakishly long 19-20 second period – that’s a proper groundswell, but it’s breaking too straight for a beach break, and the strong 28 mph winds kill it. Monday the 20th through to Wednesday the 22nd are a write-off: onshore winds, small swell, and poor surf.

Now for the standout – and this is the one you’ve been waiting for. Thursday the 23rd of July. The swell picks up to 7 ft in the morning and 6 ft in the afternoon from the SW, with a very long 19-second period in the afternoon. The wind is glassy both sessions, and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The combined energy jumps to 2779 in the afternoon – that’s proper power. It’s gonna be clean, lined-up, and pumping. The water temp is still about average. This is the best on offer, no question. Expect a crowd though, because everyone will be onto it.

Friday the 24th is another good one. The swell holds at 8 ft from the SW, with a 16-17 second period, and the wind is light offshore in the morning (6 mph from the NE) and glassy in the afternoon. The energy is over 3000 – it’s big, but clean. Again, it’s flagged as too big for the break, but the conditions are so good that experienced surfers will be on it. Saturday the 25th gets sloppy again with strong winds, and the last few days fade out with onshore breezes and dropping swell.

So, the golden window is Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th. That’s where you’ll find the best surf of the 16 days. The rest of the period is a slog, with a big gap of poor surf from the 18th to the 22nd. Don’t waste your energy on the early blows.

Rusty.

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