Rye Ocean Beach Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.39° S 144.78° E

Rye Ocean Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 14 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Rye Ocean Beach sea temperature is
13.7°C
0.9° 

Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, SW swell with onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,483 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rye Ocean Beach this week:

The surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Rye Ocean Beach in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Thu 17th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 15s
Best Surf 4AM (Thu 17th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 15s
Most Powerful10AM (Mon 21st Sep)13ft (4.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s break it down.

Honestly, the first few days at Rye Ocean Beach are a total no-go for paddle surfing. The swell is pumping in from the SW, but the wind is just destroying it. That Tuesday the 15th, with 10 to 12 foot SW swell and 25 mph onshore winds, it’s a kite surfer’s dream. The wave energy is massive, over 4700. For the rest of us, we’re sitting on the beach until things settle down. Wednesday the 16th is more of the same: 10 foot SW swell, still messy with a cross-onshore wind, and that long 15-second period. That long period gives the waves a ton of energy (4336), but at a beach break like Rye, they’ll be closing out.

Finally, a window opens. Thursday morning, the 17th of September, is the one to watch. The swell drops to about 8 feet from the SW, with a solid 14-second period. The big change is the wind – a clean 12 mph onshore wind from the SW. The data says the wind and tide are good, but the swell is still probably too big for this spot. The combined energy is still a beefy 2128. This is for experienced surfers only. It’s a bit of a wild card, but it’s the best shot we get all week.

Friday the 18th sees the swell drop a little more, and we get a clean cross-off wind from the NNW at 12 mph. The swell is around 5 feet in the morning and 7 feet in the afternoon, from the SW, with a period that hits 16 seconds. That is a very long period groundswell, which means it’ll have tons of push but might be a bit fat and walled-up on the beach. The combined energy is over 2000. It’s a marginal day, but could be a fun one for the crew who know what they’re doing.

Then it’s back to the waiting game. Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th are blown out with strong winds. Monday the 21st brings a massive 13 foot SW swell with a 16-second period. That’s a giant (combined energy over 10,000), but with light cross-shore wind. It’s just way too big for Rye Ocean Beach. Absolute experts only.

Looking at the second week, Tuesday the 22nd of September looks like the real gem. We’ve got 8 to 10 foot SW swell, still with that very long 15-16 second period, and a clean offshore wind from the north. The combined energy is around 2900-4100. It’s still flagged as too big, but with those clean offshore winds, it could be the best wave of the whole forecast. That’s your long-range standout, but remember, it’s a bit of a promise, not a guarantee.

The end of the month (Wednesday the 23rd through Saturday the 26th) fades back into smaller 5 to 6 foot swell with mixed winds. The last real chance for a smaller day is Tuesday the 29th of September, with a smaller 4 foot SW swell, a light offshore from the NE, and very clean conditions. It’s small, but it’s the safest bet for the less experienced later on.

Water temp is about 57°, pretty average for this time of year, so you’ll want a full suit.

This is a big-swell period with a lot of patience required. Pick your moments. Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon morning, strong winds from the SW by Tue morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Thu night, strong winds from the N by Sat night).

Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
Sunday
20
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
!
2
3
3
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SW
14
0.9
SW
13
0.4
SW
18
3
SW
13
3.5
SW
13
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
2.3
SW
14
1.9
SW
14
1.8
SW
13
1.6
SW
13
2
SW
16
1.8
SW
14
1.7
SW
13
1.5
SW
13
1.2
SW
12
2.2
WSW
12
3
WSW
12
3.5
SW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
404
295
126
2975
4767
4764
4079
3822
3330
2090
1363
1197
919
1943
1374
1021
757
449
1523
2299
3793
Wind (km/h)
20
WNW
15
WSW
25
WSW
40
WSW
45
SW
40
SSW
35
SSW
25
SSW
20
SSW
20
SW
15
SW
20
NNW
20
NNW
20
WNW
25
NNW
25
N
20
NW
40
N
45
N
35
W
35
WSW
Wind State
cross
on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
on
High Tide
1:55PM1.45m
2:32AM1.54m
2:30PM1.47m
3:14AM1.55m
3:03PM1.47m
3:52AM1.53m
3:33PM1.44m
4:29AM1.48m
4:02PM1.39m
5:05AM1.42m
4:30PM1.33m
5:41AM1.34m
4:59PM1.26m
Low Tide
8:12PM0.19m
8:36AM0.38m
8:49PM0.15m
9:13AM0.43m
9:24PM0.14m
9:47AM0.50m
9:58PM0.16m
10:20AM0.56m
10:30PM0.20m
10:52AM0.62m
11:02PM0.25m
11:26AM0.67m
11:37PM0.30m
clear
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:24
6:22
6:20
6:18
6:18
6:16
6:15
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:08
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
6:13
6:14
 mm
1
1
Temp °C
17
16
15
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
18
20
16
23
23
19
20
19
13
Feels °C
14
13
11
0
0
0
3
4
5
6
6
7
14
15
10
18
18
13
11
12
5
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Rye Ocean Beach Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Rye Ocean Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rye Ocean Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rye Ocean Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Rye Ocean Beach is 29 km (18 miles) from the city of Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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