
Surf Forecasts:
Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 9,268 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rye Ocean Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 4.0m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Rye Ocean Beach in the next 16 days are 4.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days.
G’day, it’s Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – this outlook for Rye Ocean Beach (a beach and reef setup) is a tough read. There’s plenty of swell on the way over the next 16 days, but the wind and conditions are going to cause a whole lot of heartache. The water temp anomaly is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.
We kick off on Saturday 11th July with a bit of a dud. There’s a 4ft SW swell with a decent 14-second period, but the north wind is screaming at 28 mph, making it cross-off and messy. The combined energy is weak (476), and the report calls it poor surf. No joy at all.
Sunday 12th July gets worse. The swell jumps to 10ft from the WSW (combined energy 2513 – moderate to strong), but the wind cranks from the WNW at 31 mph, whipping up a messy cross-shore. It’s a washing machine. Monday 13th is more of the same – 12ft SW swell, 15-16 second period, huge energy (5477 to 5867), but the cross-shore wind is relentless at 28 mph. Too big, too messy, too dangerous for anyone but the mad dogs.
Tuesday 14th is a write-off. The swell hits 13ft (energy a massive 14510 – very strong wave energy), but it’s cross-on with a fresh breeze and lumpy. That’s big, ugly water.
Now, Wednesday 15th July might have a silver lining for the brave. The swell is still solid – 8ft to 8ft from the SW, with 14-second period and moderate energy (2507 to 2011). The wind drops to a gentle to moderate WNW breeze, going cross-shore. The forecast says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break though – over 5ft makes it tricky for beginners, and at over 8ft it’s really only for experienced surfers. Still, it’s the cleanest we’ve seen so far.
Thursday 16th July morning is marginal with 6ft SW swell and cleanish cross-off winds, but it’s only a 3/10. The afternoon, however, stands out as the best on offer. The wind switches to a light north breeze at 6 mph, cross-off and glassy. The 6ft SW swell (14-second period, 1522 combined energy – moderate) is clean, and the report says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. That’s your window. If you’re good enough, Thursday afternoon is the standout.
Friday 17th July looks promising but again the swell is a bit too big at 8ft (16-second period, 2821 energy). The wind stays light offshore from the north, making it clean, but it’s still a lot of water for most. Saturday 18th fades quickly, with 5ft dropping to 4ft, and the fresh breeze picks up, making it just marginal.
Then we hit a big gap. From Sunday 19th right through to Sunday 26th July, it’s almost all poor or problematic. Sunday 19th has tiny swell (2ft to 3ft) but a near gale that ruins it. The following days see the swell bounce between 4ft and 13ft, but the wind is either cross, cross-on, or onshore, and strong. On Wednesday 22nd, there’s a brief clean morning with 8ft SW swell and a moderate cross-off, but it’s still too big for most. After that, it’s all messy, lumpy, or strong onshore winds. The combined energy numbers are high (up to 4574), but it’s just not rideable.
So, to be straight: there’s a long stretch of bad surf here with only one real highlight. The absolute best shot is Thursday 16th July afternoon at Rye Ocean Beach – 6ft SW swell, light offshore north wind, glassy, and clean. That’s the one to pencil in. For the rest of the 16 days, you’re better off staying home or going for a kite session when the wind cranks. With that much cross-shore and onshore wind, this beach setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most days.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the N on Fri night, near gales from the NNE by Sat afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue morning, light winds from the N by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Fri 17 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
667 | 476 | 390 | 437 | 2513 | 3392 | 3919 | 5194 | 5535 | 9072 | 7958 | 5747 | 4255 | 2458 | 1947 | 1558 | 1443 | 1423 | 1203 | 2668 | 2421 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:52AM1.35m | 7:01PM1.39m | 9:01AM1.36m | 7:59PM1.36m | 10:15AM1.39m | 9:07PM1.33m | 11:27AM1.43m | 10:21PM1.31m | 12:30PM1.49m | 11:37PM1.33m | 1:23PM1.54m | 00:50AM1.36m | 2:10PM1.57m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:03AM0.30m | 1:20PM0.83m | 1:59AM0.27m | 2:27PM0.89m | 3:02AM0.25m | 3:45PM0.91m | 4:10AM0.23m | 5:09PM0.87m | 5:20AM0.20m | 6:24PM0.78m | 6:26AM0.18m | 7:25PM0.67m | 7:26AM0.17m | ||||||||
— | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | |
— | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:19 | |
mm | — | — | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
Feels °C | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | — | SW 22 | WSW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
667 | 476 | 390 | 437 | — | 19 | 3919 | 5194 | 5535 | 7416 | 6552 | 5747 | 3919 | 2458 | 1947 | 1558 | 1443 | 1423 | 1203 | 2668 | 2421 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | — | S 14 | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | — | — | — | — | SSW 15 | SW 16 | SSW 13 | SW 22 | SW 20 | SW 18 | S 17 | SSW 15 |
35 | — | 16 | — | — | — | — | 164 | 203 | — | — | — | — | 45 | 61 | 35 | 18 | 61 | 588 | 153 | 133 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | S 18 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 38 | 156 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | N 4 | N 5 | NW 4 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | NW 5 | WNW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 15 | WNW 3 | NW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
3 | 33 | 85 | 45 | 2513 | 3392 | 42 | 119 | 91 | 9072 | 7958 | — | 4255 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 16 | 52 | 192 | 192 | 483 | 712 | 71 | 287 | 683 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 18 | 3 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Rye Ocean Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Rye Ocean Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rye Ocean Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rye Ocean Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Rye Ocean Beach is 29 km (18 miles) from the city of Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











