Rye Ocean Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – this outlook for Rye Ocean Beach (a beach and reef setup) is a tough read. There’s plenty of swell on the way over the next 16 days, but the wind and conditions are going to cause a whole lot of heartache. The water temp anomaly is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

We kick off on Saturday 11th July with a bit of a dud. There’s a 4ft SW swell with a decent 14-second period, but the north wind is screaming at 28 mph, making it cross-off and messy. The combined energy is weak (476), and the report calls it poor surf. No joy at all.

Sunday 12th July gets worse. The swell jumps to 10ft from the WSW (combined energy 2513 – moderate to strong), but the wind cranks from the WNW at 31 mph, whipping up a messy cross-shore. It’s a washing machine. Monday 13th is more of the same – 12ft SW swell, 15-16 second period, huge energy (5477 to 5867), but the cross-shore wind is relentless at 28 mph. Too big, too messy, too dangerous for anyone but the mad dogs.

Tuesday 14th is a write-off. The swell hits 13ft (energy a massive 14510 – very strong wave energy), but it’s cross-on with a fresh breeze and lumpy. That’s big, ugly water.

Now, Wednesday 15th July might have a silver lining for the brave. The swell is still solid – 8ft to 8ft from the SW, with 14-second period and moderate energy (2507 to 2011). The wind drops to a gentle to moderate WNW breeze, going cross-shore. The forecast says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break though – over 5ft makes it tricky for beginners, and at over 8ft it’s really only for experienced surfers. Still, it’s the cleanest we’ve seen so far.

Thursday 16th July morning is marginal with 6ft SW swell and cleanish cross-off winds, but it’s only a 3/10. The afternoon, however, stands out as the best on offer. The wind switches to a light north breeze at 6 mph, cross-off and glassy. The 6ft SW swell (14-second period, 1522 combined energy – moderate) is clean, and the report says it’s excellent for experienced surfers. That’s your window. If you’re good enough, Thursday afternoon is the standout.

Friday 17th July looks promising but again the swell is a bit too big at 8ft (16-second period, 2821 energy). The wind stays light offshore from the north, making it clean, but it’s still a lot of water for most. Saturday 18th fades quickly, with 5ft dropping to 4ft, and the fresh breeze picks up, making it just marginal.

Then we hit a big gap. From Sunday 19th right through to Sunday 26th July, it’s almost all poor or problematic. Sunday 19th has tiny swell (2ft to 3ft) but a near gale that ruins it. The following days see the swell bounce between 4ft and 13ft, but the wind is either cross, cross-on, or onshore, and strong. On Wednesday 22nd, there’s a brief clean morning with 8ft SW swell and a moderate cross-off, but it’s still too big for most. After that, it’s all messy, lumpy, or strong onshore winds. The combined energy numbers are high (up to 4574), but it’s just not rideable.

So, to be straight: there’s a long stretch of bad surf here with only one real highlight. The absolute best shot is Thursday 16th July afternoon at Rye Ocean Beach – 6ft SW swell, light offshore north wind, glassy, and clean. That’s the one to pencil in. For the rest of the 16 days, you’re better off staying home or going for a kite session when the wind cranks. With that much cross-shore and onshore wind, this beach setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most days.

Rusty.

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