
Surf Forecasts:
Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 14s period, SW swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,815 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rye Ocean Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Rye Ocean Beach in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. This is a tricky one. The whole 16-day window is a tough read, with only a couple of moments where things line up, but you have to dig through a lot of wind and oversized swell to find them. For the first week, it's pretty much a write-off. The real potential doesn't show until the back half of the forecast, and even then, it's a game of inches.
Starting us off, the first sniff of a rideable wave isn't until Monday the 14th of September. Even then, Rye Ocean Beach is getting a 3ft swell from the SW, but it's blowing onshore at 9 mph. The water is sitting at 57°F, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, which is a nice surprise. But don't get your hopes up; the conditions are poor, with weak combined energy. It's a hard pass.
The following week is a washout. From Tuesday the 15th through to Thursday the 16th, we've got a massive pulse of SW energy rolling in, peaking at a combined energy of 4767 on Tuesday. That's a lot of water moving, but it's hitting the beach with 28 mph onshore winds. Total chaos. Even though the swell is big, it's just a wall of whitewater. Best to stay home and watch the spray.
We get a bit of a breather on Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the SW, and we finally get some clean, cross-off winds from the NNW. The combined energy is still moderate, and the offshore breeze will clean things up nicely. It's marginal at best, but it's the best we've got for that first week. Don't expect perfection, but a dawn patrol could be worthwhile.
Then we hit another wall of grim. From Sunday the 20th to Tuesday the 22nd, the wind swings back onshore or cross-on, and the swell jumps back up. It's going to be lumpy and messy. By Monday the 21st, the swell is pushing 8ft from the SW, and while the wind is light, it's still onshore. That's too much size for this break without a proper offshore.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The standout window opens Wednesday the 23rd of September. We get a clean, offshore breeze from the NNE at just 9 mph, grooming a 4ft SW groundswell with a 13-second period. The combined energy is low, but the wind is glassy offshore at Rye Ocean Beach. The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions," and I believe it. The set waves will be clean and have some push. This is easily your best bet in the whole 16-day run. It won't be huge, but it will be fun and clean. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so get in early.
After that, the end of the month is bleak. Thursday the 24th has a tiny 2ft swell, and from Friday the 25th right through to the 29th, we're back to strong winds and big, unruly SW swells over 8ft. The combined energy hits 4566 on Saturday the 26th, but with onshore rain and messy winds, it's a kite-surfing show, not a paddle-surfing one. Too much size and wind for a fun session.
So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are mostly a write-off. The only real standout is the morning of Wednesday, 23rd September. If you can, aim for that window. Otherwise, the early hours of Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are your only other chance to get wet without getting hammered.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Thu night, strong winds from the N by Sat night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
295 | 126 | 2719 | 4767 | 5044 | 4079 | 3990 | 3152 | 2090 | 1471 | 1450 | 1363 | 803 | 1594 | 1280 | 1164 | 540 | 301 | 628 | 1457 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 2:32AM1.54m | 2:30PM1.47m | 3:14AM1.55m | 3:03PM1.47m | 3:52AM1.53m | 3:33PM1.44m | 4:29AM1.48m | 4:02PM1.39m | 5:05AM1.42m | 4:30PM1.33m | 5:41AM1.34m | 4:59PM1.26m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:12PM0.19m | 8:36AM0.38m | 8:49PM0.15m | 9:13AM0.43m | 9:24PM0.14m | 9:47AM0.50m | 9:58PM0.16m | 10:20AM0.56m | 10:30PM0.20m | 10:52AM0.62m | 11:02PM0.25m | 11:26AM0.67m | 11:37PM0.30m | |||||||
— | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | |
6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 15 |
Feels °C | 12 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | — | SSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | S 15 |
295 | 126 | 302 | — | 78 | 4079 | 3990 | 3152 | 2090 | 1471 | 1450 | 1363 | 706 | 1594 | 1280 | 1164 | 540 | 301 | 628 | 18 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 6 | SW 18 | — | — | — | S 16 | SSW 16 | S 16 | S 15 | SSW 13 | SW 6 | SW 18 | SW 16 | S 15 | SSW 14 | — | SW 18 | SW 15 | SSW 14 | — |
14 | 109 | — | — | — | 129 | 263 | 126 | 39 | 57 | 30 | 203 | 803 | 39 | 67 | — | 50 | 218 | 18 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | S 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 15 | — | — |
58 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 203 | — | — | — | — | — | 47 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 6 | WSW 7 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | S 6 | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | N 5 | NW 4 | SW 13 |
37 | 50 | 2719 | 4767 | 5044 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 60 | 42 | 1457 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 24 | 40 | 495 | 792 | 281 | 347 | 160 | 36 | 36 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 27 | 553 | 40 | 24 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Rye Ocean Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Rye Ocean Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rye Ocean Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rye Ocean Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Rye Ocean Beach is 29 km (18 miles) from the city of Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










