Rye Ocean Beach Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.39° S 144.78° E

Rye Ocean Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 11 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Rye Ocean Beach sea temperature is
13.9° C
0.5° 

Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with 10,050 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 15s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rye Ocean Beach this week:

The surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.0m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 4.5m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Rye Ocean Beach in the next 16 days are 5.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 10PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Tue 14th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 15s
Best Surf 1AM (Tue 14th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 15s
Most Powerful 1AM (Tue 14th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days.


G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Rye Ocean Beach are a real mixed bag, and honestly, a bit of a frustrating watch for anyone wanting to get wet. The pattern is messy, with a lot of strong wind and oversized swell swooping in, but there are a couple of golden windows that’ll make it all worthwhile if you time it right.

The first week is mostly a write-off. Sunday the 12th through Tuesday the 14th are a total bust – strong cross-shore and cross-onshore winds (28 mph) are just thrashing a big, lumpy 8 ft to 13 ft SW swell. The wave energy is massive (over 2000, hitting 13,516 on Tuesday), but it’s pure chaos, not surfable. You’d have more fun kite surfing than paddling out in that. Wednesday the 15th is a tease: the swell drops to 8 ft to 8 ft from the SW, period at 14 seconds, and the wind goes glassy on the afternoon – but it’s still too big for this break, with the combined energy reading 1857. It’s frustrating because it looks clean, but the power is just too much for a beginner-friendly spot.

Thursday the 16th is where it gets interesting. The morning is still a bit messy with a gentle cross-shore and 6 ft SW swell, but the afternoon turns glassy. The swell drops to 6 ft, period 14 seconds, and the combined energy sits at 1440. That’s still a solid amount of juice, so it’s not for the faint-hearted – more for experienced surfers. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no wetsuit drama.

Friday the 17th is another “almost” day. The swell is 7 ft to 8 ft SW, with a long 15-16 second period, and the wind goes glassy on the afternoon. But again, it’s flagged as too big for the break, with energy over 2000. The sets will be clean and powerful, but only for the brave.

Then we hit a lull. Saturday the 18th has a drop to 4 ft-5 ft SW, but the wind is a moderate cross-off, and the energy is low (582-738). The surf is marginal and inconsistent. Sunday the 19th is even smaller (3 ft-3 ft) but with a freakishly long 19-20 second period – that’s a proper groundswell, but it’s breaking too straight for a beach break, and the strong 28 mph winds kill it. Monday the 20th through to Wednesday the 22nd are a write-off: onshore winds, small swell, and poor surf.

Now for the standout – and this is the one you’ve been waiting for. Thursday the 23rd of July. The swell picks up to 7 ft in the morning and 6 ft in the afternoon from the SW, with a very long 19-second period in the afternoon. The wind is glassy both sessions, and the wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The combined energy jumps to 2779 in the afternoon – that’s proper power. It’s gonna be clean, lined-up, and pumping. The water temp is still about average. This is the best on offer, no question. Expect a crowd though, because everyone will be onto it.

Friday the 24th is another good one. The swell holds at 8 ft from the SW, with a 16-17 second period, and the wind is light offshore in the morning (6 mph from the NE) and glassy in the afternoon. The energy is over 3000 – it’s big, but clean. Again, it’s flagged as too big for the break, but the conditions are so good that experienced surfers will be on it. Saturday the 25th gets sloppy again with strong winds, and the last few days fade out with onshore breezes and dropping swell.

So, the golden window is Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th. That’s where you’ll find the best surf of the 16 days. The rest of the period is a slog, with a big gap of poor surf from the 18th to the 22nd. Don’t waste your energy on the early blows.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Sun morning, moderate winds from the WSW by Tue afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 12°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Sat
18
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
!
0
0
0
!
!
3
2
4
!
!
!
4
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
WSW
13
2.5
WSW
12
3
WSW
13
3
SW
13
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
16
5
WSW
15
4
WSW
15
4
WSW
15
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
14
2.3
SW
14
2
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
2.3
SW
17
2.3
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
1.8
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.3
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
497
2004
3228
3652
5394
6490
10050
7448
6199
3612
2458
1857
1443
1318
1336
3005
2634
2021
1382
733
569
Wind (km/h)
45
NW
45
WNW
45
WNW
40
WNW
40
NW
45
NW
40
W
25
W
25
WSW
20
WSW
15
WNW
5
W
10
WNW
15
NW
0
WNW
15
NW
10
NW
5
NNE
10
NNE
15
NNW
25
N
Wind State
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross
glassy
cross
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
9:01AM1.36m
7:59PM1.36m
10:15AM1.39m
9:07PM1.33m
11:27AM1.43m
10:21PM1.31m
12:30PM1.49m
11:37PM1.33m
1:23PM1.54m
00:50AM1.36m
2:10PM1.57m
1:56AM1.40m
2:53PM1.59m
Low Tide
1:59AM0.27m
2:27PM0.89m
3:02AM0.25m
3:45PM0.91m
4:10AM0.23m
5:09PM0.87m
5:20AM0.20m
6:24PM0.78m
6:26AM0.18m
7:25PM0.67m
7:26AM0.17m
8:17PM0.55m
8:19AM0.20m
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:33
7:33
7:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:16
5:16
5:17
5:19
5:19
5:20
 mm
6
2
3
2
3
Temp °C
10
13
13
13
14
14
13
12
13
13
13
14
14
13
14
14
12
13
12
11
14
Feels °C
1
3
4
4
5
5
5
5
7
8
9
13
13
9
13
13
9
12
10
6
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Rye Ocean Beach Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Rye Ocean Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rye Ocean Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rye Ocean Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Rye Ocean Beach is 29 km (18 miles) from the city of Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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