Surf Forecasts:
Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, SW swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 2,942 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rye Ocean Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Rye Ocean Beach in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, grab your wettie and listen up. Rusty here, and I’ve got the goods on your local stretch.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a massive pulse of swell hitting Rye Ocean Beach, but hold your horses. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are seeing a powerful SW groundswell coming in at a serious 8ft with a period of 15 to 16 seconds. That’s pumping a massive amount of energy into the water (2947 on Thursday morning). The wind is light and favourable, but this is just too much water for this break – it’s going to be a washing machine out there. If you’re an experienced charger, you might find a big, raw one, but for most of us, it’s a day to watch from the sand.
The opener doesn't really land until Saturday the 18th afternoon. The swell eases to a much friendlier 5ft from the SW with a 13-second period, and the wind turns glassy offshore from the NNE. The energy is still moderate (792), but the conditions will be clean. That Saturday arvo session is your first real shot at some good, rideable waves.
Sunday the 19th drops a notch to 4ft and 3ft, with light cross-offshore breezes and clean conditions. It’s small but clean – a longboard or a funboard kind of day.
The next real standout is Tuesday the 21st afternoon. Swell bumps back up to 5ft from the SW with a 14-second period (663 energy). The wind is a light offshore from the N, promising very good surf conditions. This is the pick of the first week for a solid, clean session without the crazy size.
We then hit a bit of a lull mid-week. Wednesday the 22nd is nice and glassy with 4ft waves and no wind, but it’s small.
Watch out for the 24th and 25th of July. The swell jumps back up to 8ft and 8ft, but it’s blown out by strong cross-shore and cross-onshore winds. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.
The end of the month has some potential. Tuesday the 29th July morning looks promising with a 5ft SW swell, a gentle offshore breeze, and very good surf conditions expected. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and workable.
The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so you won't need the 5/4 yet, but a spring suit would be smart.
So for the standout: aim for the Saturday 18th afternoon for the first clean, manageable waves, and the Tuesday 21st afternoon for the best mix of size and perfection. The late month swell on the 29th is a promising distant call.
Stay stoked.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed night, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wed 22 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2424 | 2746 | 2668 | 2169 | 2354 | 2384 | 1542 | 1154 | 792 | 486 | 379 | 224 | 194 | 532 | 266 | 305 | 261 | 661 | 471 | 373 | 330 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | on | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 11:37PM1.33m | 1:23PM1.54m | 00:50AM1.36m | 2:10PM1.57m | 1:56AM1.40m | 2:53PM1.59m | 2:54AM1.43m | 3:33PM1.59m | 3:48AM1.45m | 4:10PM1.57m | 4:39AM1.44m | 4:46PM1.54m | 5:28AM1.41m | 5:19PM1.50m | |||||||
Low Tide | 6:26AM0.18m | 7:25PM0.67m | 7:26AM0.17m | 8:17PM0.55m | 8:19AM0.20m | 9:03PM0.45m | 9:08AM0.26m | 9:47PM0.38m | 9:53AM0.34m | 10:29PM0.33m | 10:35AM0.45m | 11:10PM0.31m | 11:15AM0.57m | ||||||||
 |  | | |  | | |  | | | | |  | | | | | | |  | | |
 | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — |
 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
| kJ | 2424 | 2746 | 2668 | 2169 | 2354 | 2384 | 1542 | 1154 | 792 | 486 | 379 | 224 | 167 | 532 | 266 | 305 | 261 | 661 | 471 | 373 | 330 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 14 | SSW 16 | S 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 17 | S 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 12 | E 10 | WSW 16 | S 9 | — | E 10 | E 10 |
| kJ | 134 | 201 | 186 | 72 | 216 | 131 | 68 | 40 | — | — | 63 | 60 | 194 | 20 | 114 | 2 | 25 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | SW 20 | SSW 11 | S 16 | E 11 | SE 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 38 | 97 | 37 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | — | NW 2 | NW 3 | NNW 3 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 24 | 24 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Rye Ocean Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Rye Ocean Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rye Ocean Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rye Ocean Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Rye Ocean Beach is 29 km (18 miles) from the city of Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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