Rye Ocean Beach Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.39° S 144.78° E

Rye Ocean Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 10 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Rye Ocean Beach sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.4° 

Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-shore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 11,023 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 10 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Rye Ocean Beach this week:

The surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Rye Ocean Beach in the next 16 days are 5.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Fri 10th Jul)5ft (1.5m) 15s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 13th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 15s
Most Powerful 1AM (Tue 14th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Rye Ocean Beach over the next 16 days.


Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up for Rye Ocean Beach. It’s a bit of a mixed bag – some real promise, but we gotta wade through some ugly weather to get to the good stuff.

We start off with a bit of a tease. Friday morning, the 10th of July, has some clean 5ft SW groundswell with a long 15-second period, and the water’s sitting at a normal 57°. The wind is a light cross-off, a gentle breeze, so it’s looking clean. Combined energy is moderate at 1193. It’s a beginner-friendly beach and reef setup, so it’s a good option to get wet. The afternoon cleans up even more with 5ft SW swell and glassy conditions, but the energy drops a bit to 966. It’s a nice start.

Then the wheels come off. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are a write-off. Howling northerly and northwesterly winds, up to 31 mph, are going to trash the surface. Sunday sees the swell jump to 10ft, but with near-gale cross-shore winds, it’s a complete mess. The combined energy jumps to 2545, but it’s unsurfable.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are no better. We’re looking at a massive 12ft to 13ft SW groundswell with very long 15-16 second periods. The energy is strong to very strong, hitting 14,462 on Tuesday morning. But the wind is a brutal cross-shore or cross-onshore, 19-28 mph. This is big, powerful, and ugly. This is expert territory, and even then, the wind is going to make it a battle. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Things start to calm down on Wednesday the 15th. The swell drops to a still-chunky 8ft, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore. The forecast notes it’s probably too big for this break, so keep that in mind. It’s a step in the right direction, but not the standout.

Now, here is the real standout for the whole period. On Thursday the 16th of July, the afternoon session is the one to circle. The swell drops to a very manageable 6ft from the SW, with a 14-second period. The wind goes glassy, absolutely dead calm, with a light SSE breeze. This is going to be clean, smooth, and beautiful. The combined energy is a moderate 1400. This is the best window for experienced surfers to get some truly excellent, clean waves at Rye Ocean Beach.

Friday the 17th is a solid backup plan. The swell holds at 7ft SW with a long 16-second period in the morning, and the wind is a light cross-off. The afternoon is even cleaner, with 6ft SW swell and light cross-off breezes. It’s a good run of clean, lined-up swell.

After that, the energy drops off fast. The weekend of the 18th and 19th sees the swell shrink to 4ft or less, and the wind picks up again, making it poor. There’s a long gap of poor conditions from the 20th of July right through to the 25th, with small, weak swell and strong, messy winds. The combined energy is weak, mostly below 300. It’s a blank run that’s pretty normal for the area when the weather turns.

So, to wrap it up: get out there Friday morning for a fun session, but the absolute best is the glassy Thursday afternoon on the 16th. After that, it’s a long wait for the next pulse.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Fri afternoon, near gales from the NW by Sun morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon morning, light winds from the WNW by Wed afternoon).

Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
!
0
0
!
!
!
1
2
4
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1
SW
14
1.2
WSW
13
3
WSW
12
3
WSW
12
3
SW
13
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
16
5
WSW
16
4
SW
16
3.5
SW
16
3
SW
15
2.4
SW
15
2.2
SW
14
2
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
2
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1155
966
667
476
390
444
2545
3076
3242
5423
5926
11023
7425
6329
3491
2424
1929
1572
1336
1336
1638
Wind (km/h)
15
N
5
N
25
N
40
N
50
N
50
WNW
50
NW
45
W
45
WNW
45
NW
35
WNW
35
WNW
30
W
20
WSW
20
WNW
20
NW
20
W
15
WNW
10
WNW
5
SSE
10
NNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
6:14PM1.42m
7:52AM1.35m
7:01PM1.39m
9:01AM1.36m
7:59PM1.36m
10:15AM1.39m
9:07PM1.33m
11:27AM1.43m
10:21PM1.31m
12:30PM1.49m
11:37PM1.33m
1:23PM1.54m
00:50AM1.36m
Low Tide
12:23PM0.74m
1:03AM0.30m
1:20PM0.83m
1:59AM0.27m
2:27PM0.89m
3:02AM0.25m
3:45PM0.91m
4:10AM0.23m
5:09PM0.87m
5:20AM0.20m
6:24PM0.78m
6:26AM0.18m
7:25PM0.67m
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
mod rain
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
cloud
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:37
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:16
5:17
5:19
 mm
3
10
2
1
1
1
4
Temp °C
10
13
11
12
12
10
11
12
13
14
15
12
12
13
12
12
14
14
13
14
13
Feels °C
6
11
6
3
2
0
0
3
4
5
7
5
7
9
8
8
10
10
10
13
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Rye Ocean Beach Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Rye Ocean Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Rye Ocean Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Rye Ocean Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Rye Ocean Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Rye Ocean Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Rye Ocean Beach is 29 km (18 miles) from the city of Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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