Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 1 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 4 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 3 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 5,851 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 4 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Fri 4th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Fri 4th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break down what’s coming for Point Leo over the next couple weeks. It’s a real mixed bag, with some sweet windows hidden in there, but also some absolute chaos you’ll want to sit out.
The big picture is a long, building groundswell event that gets huge, then gets wrecked by wind, before finally cleaning up again in the second week.
Kicking off Wednesday the 2nd of September, there’s waist to head-high swell (6ft) from the SW with a very long 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy (1847), but a moderate cross-off wind from the WNW at 12 mph keeps it from being perfect. At Point Leo (Victoria), a reef, that long period is a bonus. Thursday the 3rd sees the swell jump to 10ft to 12ft, still SW and long period (14 seconds). Energy is serious (3277 to 7399). This is expert-only territory, especially Thursday afternoon with 12ft (7399 energy).
Friday the 4th of September is a standout for the experienced crew. Morning has 12ft of SW swell with a 16-second period (5069 energy) and a clean offshore NNW breeze at 16 mph. Clean, powerful, and lined up. The afternoon drops to 10ft, still with offshore wind turning cross-off.
Saturday the 5th is a write-off. Howling wind from the WNW at 28 mph, even if offshore, makes it impossible with swell from 8ft to 15ft (5374 energy). Too wild. Sunday the 6th brings a welcome calm. Morning has a gentle offshore at 9 mph with 8ft SW swell (2438 energy) and clean conditions. Then Sunday afternoon is glassy – a SE breeze at only 3 mph, 7ft swell (1606 energy). That afternoon is a real gem.
Monday the 7th drops to 4ft (417 energy) and a NW offshore, but it’s weak. Tuesday the 8th morning is another glassy session with 4ft of very long 18-second groundswell (1457 energy). Sneaky good, but small.
Then it gets ugly. From Wednesday the 9th through Monday the 14th, it’s blown out. Strong onshore winds from the SSE and SE, with swell from 8ft to a massive 16ft. Energy hits crazy numbers like 10999 and 13021, but conditions are poor. This looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
We get a nice window on Saturday the 12th of September. Morning is glassy with 6ft of 16-second groundswell (1872 energy). Clean and manageable. The real standout in the second week is Wednesday the 16th of September. Morning has a cross-off NNW breeze at 9 mph with a solid 7ft SW swell (15-second period, 1974 energy). The afternoon goes glassy with a WSW breeze at only 3 mph, and the swell holds at 7ft (14 seconds, 1957 energy). That afternoon is glassy perfection.
Water temp is about average for this time of year.
So, my top picks: Sunday the 6th of September afternoon – glassy, clean, head-high waves. But the absolute best of the whole forecast is Wednesday the 16th of September afternoon. Glassy conditions, solid 7ft SW groundswell. Mark it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NNW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 20 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 742 | 1685 | 2255 | 2803 | 3277 | 4432 | 5210 | 5069 | 4356 | 3373 | 2487 | 5374 | 3369 | 2416 | 1537 | 784 | 398 | 273 | 388 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | off | off | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 2:57AM2.05m | 2:56PM2.03m | 3:38AM2.11m | 3:28PM2.04m | 4:19AM2.12m | 4:02PM2.04m | 5:03AM2.09m | 4:39PM2.01m | 5:51AM2.01m | 5:21PM1.96m | 6:45AM1.91m | 6:11PM1.87m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:59AM0.49m | 9:14PM0.17m | 9:36AM0.53m | 9:50PM0.08m | 10:13AM0.60m | 10:30PM0.05m | 10:53AM0.69m | 11:13PM0.07m | 11:37AM0.79m | 00:02AM0.13m | 12:28PM0.89m | 00:59AM0.24m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
mm | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 742 | 1685 | 2255 | 2803 | 3277 | 4432 | 5210 | 5069 | 4356 | 3373 | 2487 | — | 3369 | 2416 | 1537 | 784 | 398 | 273 | 264 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | — | — | — | SSW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 9 | ESE 4 | SW 21 | SW 20 |
| kJ | 290 | 162 | 215 | 169 | — | — | — | — | 306 | 288 | — | — | — | 22 | 50 | 30 | 5 | 72 | 388 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 14 | — | SW 22 | SSW 22 | SSE 5 |
| kJ | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19 | — | 18 | 45 | 19 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 4 | WSW 6 | — | NW 4 | NW 5 | SW 14 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | WNW 5 | SW 12 | SW 13 | — | — | ENE 3 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | E 3 |
| kJ | 15 | 59 | — | 16 | 49 | 2967 | — | — | — | 22 | 123 | 5374 | 2254 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 62 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 66 | 66 | 61 | 30 | 2 | 108 | 459 | 460 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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