Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Alright, look, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s some serious gold hiding in there if you’re patient. We’ve got a solid window of surf coming up right away, then a bit of a junky stretch, a few days of that wind-affected mush, and then a proper bombshell on the way. Let’s break it down.

First up, we’re looking at Friday the 11th. The water temp is sitting at 56.7°F, which is about 1.8°F warmer than the long-term average for this time of year. That’s a touch notable, nothing crazy, just a bit of a blessing. You’ll want to be out at Point Leo early. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent and it’s looking glassy with a slight air and a light offshore breeze from the southwest. There’s a solid 7.2ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is strong, sitting at 2394. This is proper, clean, powerful surf for the experienced crew. It’s a bit big for the beginners, but for those who know what they’re doing, it’s a ripper.

Saturday the 12th is another good one. The morning has a cross-off breeze, which is fine, but the afternoon turns it on—glassy, 6.9ft of SW swell, and the energy is still strong at 2026. It stays consistent through the day, so you’ve got a full weekend of it.

Now, Sunday the 13th is where things start to turn. The wind swings around to the north and kicks up to 30 km/h. The swell drops a bit to 5.2ft, but that cross-off wind is going to make it a bit wild. The energy is fading fast too, down to 1136. It’s not really worth scrambling for. Then Monday the 14th, the swell just drops out of it entirely—down to 3.3ft. The wind is offshore and clean, but there’s just not enough push in the water. It’s a flat patch, a real lull for a couple of days.

Tuesday the 15th is when it gets ugly. The swell is back up—11.5ft—but it’s accompanied by strong, cross-shore winds hitting 40 km/h in the afternoon. The energy is huge at 4974, but it’s going to be messy, blown-out, and basically unsurfable. It looks more like a kitesurfing day than a paddle surfing day out there. That heavy, junky swell lingers into Wednesday the 16th with onshore winds and a choppy surface. Not your friend.

We get a brief reset on Thursday the 17th. The swell is still a good 6.6ft, but the winds back off and it turns clean again in the morning with a cross-off breeze. The energy at 1624 is moderate-to-strong, and it’s a good day for a few waves before the next system rolls in. Friday the 18th sees the northwesterly winds pick up to 35 km/h, but it’s still cross-off and clean, offering up more rideable 6.9ft surf with moderate energy at 1736. It gets a bit dicey when the winds are that strong, but the wave face is still clean.

Saturday the 19th is a write-off. The swell drops to 3.9ft, the winds are blowing 45 km/h, and while it’s clean, there’s just no power. The energy is down to a weak 473. It’s a wash.

Now, this is where you need to start paying attention. There’s a second lull in the middle of the week, but the models are hinting at something special starting to form. Sunday the 20th looks like the precursor, with the swell building back up to 9.8ft by the afternoon, but the winds are cross-shore and it’s messy. However, Monday the 21st is the standout of this entire forecast. I’m talking about a massive, long-period SW groundswell. We’re looking at 13.1ft with a 19-second period, and the combined energy is astronomical—a huge 11621. The wind is light and offshore in the morning, making for what the model calls “exceptional surf conditions.” This is a serious, serious day. The kind of day you ring in sick for. This is for experts only; don’t even think about taking a beginner out there. It will be maxing out. The afternoon glass-off looks incredible too, with 11.5ft and 17-second swell. This is the one.

After that big event, the week settles down. Tuesday the 22nd sees some decent 7.5ft leftovers with a clean offshore in the morning, a good chance to grab a few on the tail end of that energy. Wednesday the 23rd looks like it’s back to being a bit cross-onshore and messy, with a 9.8ft swell, so probably not the best quality. The end of the week drops off again. Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th are small with weak energy. Then, there’s a final little pulse on Saturday the 26th. It’s not the same size,

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