
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 14 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 3,306 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 15 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it.
We’ve got a solid run of surf coming up at Point Leo, but it’s a tale of two halves. The first few days are pushing big, powerful swell, but it’s for the experienced crew only. Then it settles down into cleaner, more manageable waves, with a couple of absolute gems hidden in there.
The first decent action kicks off on Wednesday, July 15th. Wednesday morning is pumping with a solid 8ft SW swell, period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 2482. That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is WNW offshore, so it’s clean and lined up, but this is strictly for the experts. The 16th and 17th hold similar size, around 7ft to 8ft, but the wind stays favourable. Friday afternoon, July 17th, is the standout of this first week. You’ve got a clean 7ft SW swell with a 16-second period, combined energy of 2500, and a perfect NW offshore breeze. The wave quality is excellent, but again, it’s a big one. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so a decent 3/2 steamer is all you need.
After that, it drops back. Saturday morning, July 18th, is still a good option, with 6ft SW swell and a 14-second period, combined energy of 1209, and light cross-offshore winds. It’s cleaner again, and the afternoon turns glassy. Then Sunday, July 19th, sees the swell fade to 4ft, and the energy drops to 396. The waves are still rideable but marginal.
There’s a bit of a lull through the middle of the week, with onshore winds and choppy conditions making it poor for paddle surfing. The 22nd and 23rd are basically write-offs, with strong winds and messy surf.
But then, hold on to your board. The real standout is Friday, July 24th. The morning kicks off with a solid 10ft SW swell, a 16-second period, and a combined energy of 4445. The wind is NW offshore, moderate but clean. This is a serious, powerful, excellent session for the experienced surfer. The afternoon holds similar size, 10ft, with a gentle offshore wind, making it as clean as it gets. This is the best of the whole outlook.
The following Saturday and Sunday, July 25th and 26th, are still solid, with 7ft to 6ft SW swell, but the winds are a bit more mixed. Monday, July 27th, is another good morning, with 7ft SW swell and a 12-second period, combined energy of 1376, and clean cross-offshore winds. After that, it gets messy again until the 29th and 30th, where it cleans up nicely with smaller, fun waves around 4ft to 5ft, perfect for a beginner or a longboard session.
The whole period is at Point Leo, a reef break that’s fairly consistent. The crowds are sometimes there, but with this much swell, you might have a bit more room, especially on the bigger days. The optimum swell direction is SW, and that’s exactly what we’re getting, so the waves will be well-shaped for the point.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tue 21 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
4251 | 2439 | 2020 | 2125 | 2278 | 2372 | 1784 | 2009 | 2297 | 1825 | 1170 | 880 | 535 | 341 | 236 | 194 | 502 | 387 | 482 | 701 | 623 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:14PM1.79m | 12:07PM2.07m | 11:30PM1.83m | 1:04PM2.14m | 00:42AM1.89m | 1:53PM2.19m | 1:47AM1.95m | 2:38PM2.22m | 2:46AM1.99m | 3:20PM2.21m | 3:41AM1.99m | 3:58PM2.18m | 4:31AM1.96m | 4:35PM2.11m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:05AM0.07m | 6:03PM0.89m | 6:11AM0.05m | 7:05PM0.74m | 7:11AM0.07m | 8:00PM0.58m | 8:06AM0.12m | 8:50PM0.43m | 8:57AM0.22m | 9:37PM0.31m | 9:43AM0.34m | 10:20PM0.25m | 10:27AM0.49m | ||||||||
— | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | |
— | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
4251 | 2439 | 2020 | 2125 | 2278 | 2372 | 1784 | 2009 | 2297 | 1825 | 1170 | 880 | 535 | 341 | 236 | 142 | 502 | 387 | 482 | 701 | 623 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | — | SSW 15 | — | — | — | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 16 | WSW 15 | S 15 | — | — |
131 | 43 | — | 128 | — | — | — | 240 | 203 | 73 | 39 | — | — | 16 | 60 | 194 | 25 | 249 | 17 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 22 | WSW 20 | WSW 20 | SSW 11 | — | S 10 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 39 | 75 | 22 | — | 8 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 2 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











