
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 3,555 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 06) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sun 5th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming our way for Point Leo.
Right now, the surf is a write-off. We’ve got a solid 10ft SW groundswell with a long 17-second period, but the wind is howling onshore from the ESE at 12 mph, trashing any chance of a decent wave. The ocean is a mess, and the combined swell energy is a whopping 6604 (very strong), but without clean conditions, it’s a no-go for paddling. Sunday morning and afternoon both look poor.
But hang in there. Monday the 6th of July is where it gets interesting. The swell drops to a clean 5ft from the SW (14-second period), and the wind swings NE at 6 mph, going cross-offshore. That means clean lines, with a combined energy of 1029 (moderate). The morning session looks very good. Then Monday afternoon gets even better: glassy conditions with SW wind at 3 mph, swell easing to 4ft but still holding that 14-second period, and the energy at 730. That’s the standout of the first week – Point Leo (Mornington Peninsula) will be clean, lined up, and perfect for a beginner-friendly reef break. Water temp is 57°, which is about normal for this time of year.
Tuesday the 7th is more marginal. Swell sits around 3-5ft, but the wind is tricky – cross and cross-on, with energy moderate to strong (850-1146). Not the best, but if you’re desperate, the early morning might give you a few.
Wednesday the 8th afternoon is a real highlight for experienced surfers. The swell bumps up to 7ft from the SW with an 18-second period, combined energy at 2951 (strong), and glassy conditions with E wind at 3 mph. That’s going to be powerful, clean, and heavy – not for beginners. This is the second standout in the first week.
Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th stay clean with cross-off and glassy winds, swell around 4-5ft, and energy moderate to strong (800-1398). Very good surf, especially Friday afternoon with zero wind and glass.
Then we hit a bit of a gap. Saturday the 11th is marginal with clean but weaker swell (3-4ft, energy 240-525). Sunday the 12th is flat and poor with strong cross-off winds. Monday the 13th brings back some energy (3-6ft, 1011-1462) but with rain and cross-chop. Not great.
From Tuesday the 14th through Thursday the 16th, it’s poor to marginal with onshore and cross-onshore winds, choppy conditions, and moderate to strong energy (1036-4490) but all messy. The big 8ft swell on Thursday the 16th afternoon is only for experts, but even then, the wind is fresh cross-shore at 22 mph, so it’s lumpy.
Friday the 17th improves slightly – offshore WNW wind at 16 mph, swell 5ft from SW, energy 774. Clean but a bit windy. Saturday the 18th is marginal again with light cross-onshore winds.
Now for the long-range: Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th of July look promising but less certain. Sunday morning has a 8ft SW swell with 14-second period, light cross-on wind, energy 2188 – marginal but could be decent if the wind holds. Monday the 20th morning shows a bigger 10ft SW swell (15-second period) with energy 4805, light cross-on wind – excellent on paper, but that’s two weeks out. For now, lock in Monday the 6th afternoon and Wednesday the 8th afternoon as the best bets.
Overall, Point Leo has some real gems in the first week, especially the glassy, clean days. The second week is more hit-and-miss, but don’t write it off yet.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the E on Sun afternoon, calm by Mon morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
4745 | 3555 | 1904 | 1006 | 726 | 398 | 568 | 1096 | 1062 | 1483 | 2714 | 1571 | 1028 | 757 | 1327 | 1317 | 1060 | 805 | 672 | 525 | 398 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 3:30PM2.04m | 3:28AM1.69m | 3:59PM2.03m | 4:10AM1.72m | 4:28PM2.00m | 4:53AM1.77m | 4:57PM1.97m | 5:41AM1.81m | 5:30PM1.94m | 6:34AM1.85m | 6:09PM1.90m | 7:34AM1.88m | 6:55PM1.86m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:46PM0.65m | 9:30AM0.45m | 10:18PM0.57m | 10:07AM0.52m | 10:50PM0.49m | 10:46AM0.60m | 11:24PM0.39m | 11:30AM0.70m | 00:04AM0.30m | 12:19PM0.80m | 00:50AM0.22m | 1:16PM0.91m | 1:45AM0.16m | ||||||||
7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | |
— | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
4745 | 3555 | 1904 | 1006 | 726 | 398 | 568 | 1096 | 1062 | 1483 | 2714 | 1571 | 1028 | 757 | 1327 | 1317 | 1060 | 805 | 672 | 525 | 398 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | SE 5 | SE 5 | SW 19 | SW 13 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SE 5 | SSW 15 | S 16 | SSW 16 | — | SSW 15 | — | — | — |
1859 | 1099 | 491 | 14 | 4 | 57 | 282 | 50 | 48 | 676 | 237 | 146 | 3 | 43 | 43 | 81 | — | 44 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 4 | — | — | ESE 12 | SSW 19 | — | SE 12 | SSW 16 | ESE 4 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 14 | 201 | — | 6 | 97 | 2 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ESE 4 | ESE 5 | NE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 3 | N 3 |
— | 38 | 59 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 120 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 20 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










