
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 13s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 7,301 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 12s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sun 26th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the charts for Point Leo.
We’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands, but there’s some serious energy coming down the line. The early part of the window is a bit of a write-off with rough conditions, but once the sea settles, this place is going to be firing.
To start, the water temp is sitting at about 57°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The first real option is on Thursday, July 23rd, but it’s not a friendly one. We’ve got a 10ft SW swell with a 14-second period pumping in. The combined energy is a hefty 5262, so that’s strong. The problem is the wind is a cross-off from the west at 19 mph, and it’s messy. The surf is there, but it’s also a lot of water moving. This is pushing into the 10ft range, so it’s really only for the experienced crew. The quality is marginal, so it’s more of a "watch and wait" day.
The standout window starts to open up on Friday, July 24th. Same size, 12ft, but the period stretches to 15 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, and that kind of energy at Point Leo’s reef setup is a beautiful thing. The combined energy is massive at 9542. The wind is still a cross-off, but it’s a bit more manageable. The forecast quality is the best we’ll see for a few days, but that many waves and that much power means it’s still a big day. Crowds are a possibility here, so keep your wits about you.
Monday, July 27th shows a drop in size. The morning is a clean 4ft with offshore NW wind, but the real highlight is the afternoon. A 7ft swell from the WSW with a light cross-off breeze. The energy is 1220, which is moderate, and the conditions are described as very good. That’s a much more manageable size for a fun session.
But the absolute best of the entire forecast, the one that stands out above everything else, is Tuesday, July 28th afternoon. We’re looking at 8ft of SW swell, a 14-second period, and the wind goes glassy – a light southerly at 3 mph. The combined energy is 4711, and the forecast says "excellent for experienced surfers." This is the one. That’s a proper, clean, powerful swell with no wind on it. If you can handle it, this is the day to be in the water.
Looking further ahead, Wednesday, July 29th morning keeps the size up at 12ft with a 15-second period, but the wind is a cross-off from the NNE. Still big and powerful. Then things settle down. From Thursday, July 30th through to Sunday, August 2nd, the size drops to between 3ft and 6ft. The wind is mostly offshore or light, keeping things clean. The best of that quieter period is Saturday, August 1st afternoon, with a 4ft, 16-second period groundswell and glassy conditions. That’s a lovely, long-period runner for a point break.
After that, it gets a bit sad. From Monday, August 3rd afternoon through to Wednesday, August 5th, the wind swings onshore and onshore, the quality drops to poor, and the surf is no good. It’s a total write-off for the end of the outlook.
So, to sum it up: the early days are big and rough. The real standout is Tuesday, July 28th afternoon. That’s the session you want to be on. The smaller, cleaner days around the end of the month are great for a more relaxed paddle.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
449 | 480 | 335 | 1067 | 3285 | 3859 | 7301 | 5357 | 3866 | 3169 | 2218 | 1818 | 1034 | 629 | 515 | 319 | 258 | 488 | 3447 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | off |
High Tide | 5:19AM1.91m | 5:09PM2.01m | 6:06AM1.84m | 5:43PM1.90m | 6:53AM1.77m | 6:17PM1.80m | 7:43AM1.70m | 6:53PM1.70m | 8:41AM1.65m | 7:37PM1.61m | 9:48AM1.64m | 8:32PM1.54m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:01PM0.24m | 11:09AM0.63m | 11:41PM0.27m | 11:50AM0.77m | 00:20AM0.32m | 12:31PM0.90m | 1:00AM0.39m | 1:17PM1.01m | 1:45AM0.46m | 2:12PM1.10m | 2:37AM0.50m | 3:23PM1.16m | 3:38AM0.53m | ||||||
— | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | |
mm | — | — | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | — |
449 | 480 | 335 | 273 | 3285 | 32 | 267 | 5357 | 3866 | 3169 | 2218 | 1818 | 1034 | 629 | 515 | 319 | 258 | 488 | — | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | WSW 15 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | S 20 | — |
2 | 21 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 26 | 41 | 75 | 7 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 16 | — | — | — |
— | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NW 3 | W 7 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | NW 4 | SW 13 | SW 12 | — | — | — | NNW 2 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | WSW 13 |
6 | 6 | 113 | 1067 | 2247 | 3859 | 7301 | 3557 | 2633 | 21 | 1497 | 1249 | — | — | — | 1 | 12 | 40 | 3447 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 52 | 61 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 455 | 66 | 66 | 454 | 62 | 66 | 78 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










