Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Issued: 9 am 07 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.9° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 7,291 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 8 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 18s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1PM (Wed 8th Jul)6ft (1.8m) 18s
Best Surf 1PM (Wed 8th Jul)6ft (1.8m) 18s
Most Powerful 7AM (Mon 13th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the coming weeks for Point Leo.

First up, we’ve got a cracking start. Tuesday morning, July 7th, the water’s sitting at a pretty normal 57° for this time of year. A clean 3ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period is rolling in, combined with a light NNE cross-offshore breeze. The wave energy is moderate (850), but that period and glassy wind are going to deliver some seriously clean, lined-up sets. This is a reef break that can handle that long-period energy beautifully. This is your standout moment early on.

Wednesday morning, July 8th, the swell bumps up to 5ft from the SW, with an even longer 19-second period and a NE cross-shore wind. The combined energy jumps to a strong 2403, but there’s a light cross-shore ripple on the surface, so it won’t be quite as pristine as Tuesday. Still very good.

Thursday, July 9th, looks great too. Morning brings 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period and a light NNE cross-offshore, keeping it clean. By the afternoon, it drops slightly to 4ft, but the wind goes glassy (ESE, 3 mph), making for a stunning session despite the moderate energy (934).

Friday, July 10th, keeps the run going. A solid 5ft SW swell in the morning with a 15-second period and a clean cross-offshore breeze. The afternoon goes offshore (NNW, 3 mph) and glassy on a 5ft swell. The energy is moderate to strong (1238 and 993). Lovely.

Then we hit a big gap. Saturday, July 11th, is a write-off with strong 28 mph winds ruining the surface. Sunday, July 12th, has a big 10ft SW swell, but those same strong winds (28 mph) make it a mess and only for experienced surfers willing to battle it. Monday, July 13th, sees a massive 13ft WSW swell with incredible energy (13500), but again, strong winds (28 mph) make it a brutal, messy day. Tuesday, July 14th, through Thursday, July 16th, are all blown out with strong winds and 10ft to 7ft swells – mostly one for the kite surfers, not the paddle crew.

The next real window opens up on Friday, July 17th. Morning brings a clean 4ft SW swell with a 14-second period and a light NNW cross-offshore breeze. By the afternoon, it’s smaller at 3ft but with a NW offshore breeze (6 mph) and clean, perfect for a longboard or a fun log session.

After that, the wind picks up again. Saturday, July 18th, has a solid 7ft SW swell (17-second period) but fresh 19 mph winds make it challenging. Sunday, July 19th, is another write-off with near-gale winds. Monday, July 20th, is messy.

The final standout appears on Tuesday, July 21st. The afternoon shows 10ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period and a NNW offshore breeze at 19 mph. The combined energy is strong (5895), and while the wind is a fresh breeze, the offshore direction will hold the wave faces clean. This is big, powerful groundswell – experts only. It’s far out, a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it.

So, the best on offer is that Tuesday, July 7th, morning for glassy perfection, and the Friday, July 17th, for a cleaner, smaller session. That Tuesday, July 21st, is a promising long-range shout for the big-wave crew.

Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 7°C on Tue morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Fri afternoon, near gales from the WNW by Sat night).

Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
1
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
2
0
0
0
1
2
2
7
0
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
19
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
2.4
WSW
11
3
SW
12
3
SW
14
3.5
SW
13
4
WSW
15
4
SW
16
3.5
SW
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
568
1096
1053
1357
2714
1571
1041
757
1381
1171
993
763
469
456
1309
2757
2847
4721
7117
6936
7185
Wind (km/h)
10
NE
10
SE
15
E
10
NE
10
SE
10
NE
5
NNE
5
ESE
10
NNE
15
N
10
NNW
25
N
45
N
45
NNW
55
WNW
45
NW
45
WNW
40
WNW
45
NW
45
W
35
WSW
Wind State
cross-off
on
cross-on
cross
on
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
4:28PM2.00m
4:53AM1.77m
4:57PM1.97m
5:41AM1.81m
5:30PM1.94m
6:34AM1.85m
6:09PM1.90m
7:34AM1.88m
6:55PM1.86m
8:41AM1.90m
7:51PM1.82m
9:53AM1.94m
8:58PM1.79m
Low Tide
10:07AM0.52m
10:50PM0.49m
10:46AM0.60m
11:24PM0.39m
11:30AM0.70m
00:04AM0.30m
12:19PM0.80m
00:50AM0.22m
1:16PM0.91m
1:45AM0.16m
2:21PM1.00m
2:47AM0.12m
3:36PM1.03m
3:55AM0.09m
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
mod rain
rain showers
light rain
light rain
light rain
cloud
light rain
light rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:12
5:12
5:13
5:13
5:14
5:15
5:15
 mm
10
5
1
3
5
2
1
Temp °C
9
13
12
10
11
10
9
11
10
11
13
11
12
12
10
11
12
11
13
13
11
Feels °C
8
10
9
8
9
7
8
9
8
7
10
6
2
3
1
0
3
3
3
4
2
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
19
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
2.4
WSW
11
3
SW
12
3
SW
14
3.5
SW
13
3.5
SW
15
4
SW
16
3.5
SW
17
Energy kJ
568
1096
1053
1357
2714
1571
1041
757
1381
1171
993
763
469
456
1309
2757
2847
4721
5964
6936
7185
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
SW
13
0.3
SSW
16
0.1
SW
24
1.4
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
S
16
0.4
SSW
16
0.4
SW
20
0.5
S
16
0.4
SSW
14
0.1
S
15
0.8
WSW
9
0.1
SW
24
0.9
SSW
17
0.4
SSW
20
0.9
SSW
17
Energy kJ
282
50
22
784
240
188
82
134
137
67
4
103
22
419
128
423
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
ESE
12
0.6
S
19
0.2
ESE
11
0.3
SSW
15
Energy kJ
14
262
12
43
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
ESE
4
0.4
NNW
3
1
NNW
4
1.3
NNW
5
0.6
NW
4
1.1
NW
5
1.4
NW
5
0.8
NW
5
4
WSW
15
0.7
NW
4
0.6
NW
4
Energy kJ
5
3
40
80
16
49
106
35
7117
18
14
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
1
4
1
1
1
4
1
1
4
Distance (km)
0
10
10
2
10
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
262
97
262
512
749
72
472
472
66
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
4
4
5
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
5
7
6
5
4
4
5
4
4
3
4
4
5
5
9
9
7
5
6
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
7
9
8
9
7
7
6
7
5
5
5
5
5
5
9
9
7
5
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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