
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 3 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 20s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 20s period, WSW swell with 5,258 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 2.5m 20s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Thu 6th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 20s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 20s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Point Leo. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming, but you’ll have to be patient for the real magic. The water’s sitting at 55°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The first few days are a bit of a write-off. Tuesday the 4th kicks off with a 5ft SW swell (11 seconds) and a strong NW wind, but the call is a 2/10 – it’s more of a mission than a session. Wednesday and Thursday are similar, with choppy, cross-shore winds and marginal conditions. Thursday afternoon cleans up a bit with a moderate offshore, but the swell is only 3ft, so it’s a small, clean day for the longboard or a mellow cruise.
Now, Friday the 7th is where it starts to get interesting. The morning brings a 5ft SW swell (16 seconds) with a light NW offshore breeze, and the energy is strong at 1440. The water’s clean, and the surf is setting up nicely for experienced surfers. But the real standout is Friday afternoon: glassy conditions, 5 km/h NW wind, and the same 5ft SW swell (15 seconds) with a combined energy of 1547. That’s the best window in the first week – clean, powerful lines wrapping around the reef. It’s a beginner-friendly break, but with 5ft and a long period, it’ll be punchy enough to keep the more experienced crew happy.
Saturday the 8th holds similar size at 5ft-6ft (16 seconds) with a cross-offshore breeze, but it’s not as clean as Friday. It’s still surfable, but the gloss is off.
The second week is where things get big. Monday the 10th has a 8ft SW swell (17-18 seconds) and the energy jumps to 3843. The morning is messy with a cross-shore wind, but Monday afternoon turns on with a moderate offshore and clean conditions. This is big, powerful groundswell – 8ft and 17 seconds is a serious amount of water. Point Leo is a reef, so it’ll handle the long period well, but for beginners, that’s pushing the limit. This is a machine for the experienced crew.
Tuesday the 11th is a blast. 10ft SW swell (16 seconds) with a combined energy of 6984 in the morning and 4224 in the afternoon. The afternoon sees a 20 km/h offshore wind and a 5/10 score – the best of the entire run. That’s a big, clean, powerful swell hitting the reef. It’s expert territory, but if you’ve got the skill, this is the session to circle.
Wednesday the 12th is a write-off – 15ft SW swell (17-18 seconds) and a screaming 40 km/h SW wind in the morning, with a combined energy of 11194. That’s not a surf day; that’s a kite-surfing day. The afternoon is a bit cleaner with a cross-offshore, but at 15ft, it’s only for the bravest, and even then, the wind is still strong.
Things settle down after that. Thursday the 13th through Saturday the 15th have consistent 7ft-10ft SW swell (15-16 seconds) with moderate offshore winds. The energy is still strong (2000-4400), and the surf is clean and powerful. Saturday the 15th afternoon is a highlight with a 7ft SW swell (18 seconds) and a light breeze – clean, long lines.
Sunday the 16th starts glassy with a 5ft SW swell (15 seconds) and a 3/10 score, but the wind swings onshore in the afternoon, messing it up. Monday the 17th is a no-go with onshore winds and a 8ft swell that’s just messy.
The last few days, Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th, are a nice way to finish. Tuesday afternoon has a 5ft SW swell (14 seconds) with a moderate offshore and a 3/10 – clean and fun. Wednesday the 19th is glassy all day, with a 6ft WSW swell (15 seconds) in the morning and 5ft (14 seconds) in the afternoon. Both sessions are clean, with combined energy around 900-1200, and the scores are a solid 3/10. It’s a mellow, glassy end to the window.
The standout for the whole run is Friday the 7th afternoon – glassy, 5ft, clean, and the energy is right. For the big-wave hunters, Monday the 10th afternoon and Tuesday the 11th afternoon are the ones to circle. The crowds at Point Leo are “sometimes” an issue, but on a Friday afternoon or a Monday, you’ll likely have plenty of room. Stick with the reef, and you’ll get the best of the long-period groundswell.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Tue morning). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Sun morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNE by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 19 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
572 | 1301 | 626 | 432 | 284 | 286 | 287 | 406 | 528 | 1267 | 1074 | 742 | 1367 | 1431 | 940 | 752 | 556 | 5258 | 3703 | 3377 | 2545 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:29PM2.04m | 3:56AM1.91m | 3:57PM2.03m | 4:37AM1.95m | 4:28PM2.02m | 5:22AM1.97m | 5:02PM1.99m | 6:11AM1.96m | 5:41PM1.95m | 7:08AM1.91m | 6:27PM1.90m | 8:14AM1.86m | 7:25PM1.83m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:47PM0.38m | 9:52AM0.52m | 10:20PM0.27m | 10:30AM0.60m | 10:55PM0.19m | 11:11AM0.69m | 11:36PM0.14m | 11:56AM0.80m | 00:23AM0.12m | 12:47PM0.91m | 1:19AM0.15m | 1:50PM1.01m | 2:24AM0.19m | ||||||||
7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | |
— | 5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | |
mm | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | 4 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | S 16 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 16 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
572 | 5 | 626 | 432 | 245 | 286 | 287 | 406 | 528 | 1267 | 1074 | 742 | 1367 | 1431 | 940 | 752 | 556 | 26 | 3703 | 3377 | 2545 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 6 | SW 16 | WSW 20 | SW 14 | WSW 6 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | — | SSW 15 | — | SSW 21 | SSW 19 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 |
431 | — | 154 | 239 | 284 | 47 | 163 | 38 | 211 | 62 | 441 | 516 | 53 | 48 | — | 21 | — | 43 | 140 | 116 | 138 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | — | S 15 | SW 14 | SSW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | S 8 | SSW 18 | — | WSW 6 | SW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
24 | — | 4 | 91 | 21 | 197 | 93 | 1 | 31 | — | 32 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | SW 12 | — | SW 6 | SW 8 | — | NW 3 | W 5 | WSW 7 | WSW 7 | NW 3 | — | N 3 | N 4 | N 3 | N 4 | NNW 5 | WSW 20 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 |
26 | 1301 | — | 50 | 149 | — | 2 | 21 | 121 | 111 | 4 | — | 5 | 9 | 7 | 40 | 54 | 5258 | 14 | 9 | 52 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 68 | 66 | 62 | 66 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 62 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 95 | 58 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 52 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











