Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 27 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.2° C
0.2° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 10,941 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 23s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Fri 31st Jul)5ft (1.6m) 12s
Best Surf 4PM (Sat 1st Aug)5ft (1.5m) 16s
Most Powerful 7AM (Wed 29th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days for Point Leo. It's a bit of a slow burner, but there are some moments that are gonna make it worth the wait.

The first real chance is Monday, July 27th. The morning shows a 4ft SW swell, but it's fighting a 12 mph cross-offshore wind. The swell energy is moderate at 528, but it's a marginal session. The afternoon is worse, with the onshore wind kicking in, so Monday is a no-go.

We're skipping Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Tuesday is a big storm swell with a 28 mph cross-offshore, and by Wednesday we're looking at a massive 15ft to 13ft SW swell. The energy is insane, hitting 10241, and the wind is a near-gale cross-shore. That's not for surfing; that's for the kite surfers to have a field day. Thursday is still big and lumpy from the storm.

Now, Friday, July 31st is where we start to see the light. The morning brings a nice 5ft SW swell with a 6 mph offshore wind from the WNW. The energy is a moderate 609, and it's clean. The afternoon is the real winner, though. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the SW. The swell is 4ft at 12 seconds from the SW. That's smooth, clean, long-period groundswell. For a reef break like Point Leo, that's as good as it gets. The energy is 547, which is solid, and the conditions are legitimately good. This is the first standout.

Saturday, August 1st keeps the good times rolling. The morning is a 3ft swell from the SW, but with a period of 18 seconds. That's very long period groundswell. It'll be clean and glassy for the afternoon. The afternoon is the best of the entire run, with a 5ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind. The energy is 1698, offering excellent conditions for experienced surfers. This is the second standout.

Sunday, August 2nd is still surfable, but the wind jumps up to 22 mph, making it a rough paddle. The 6ft swell is there, but it's messy. Monday and Tuesday of the following week are a complete write-off again with strong onshore winds.

After another quiet spell, we get a glimmer on Saturday, August 8th. The morning is a 4ft SW swell with a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind. The afternoon is another glassy moment, with a 4ft SW swell at 18 seconds. The energy is 1021, and the conditions are very good. It's a long way out, so treat it as a promise with a pinch of salt, but it looks like a solid end to the run.

The water temperature is sitting at 56°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

So, to wrap it up: the afternoon of Friday, July 31st and the afternoon of Saturday, August 1st are your clear winners. For the rest of the time, you're either looking at stormy slop, or just waiting for the next clearing. The 8th of August looks promising, but we'll see how that holds up.

Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NNW on Mon morning, near gales from the WNW by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
0
2
2
0
3
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
4
3
2
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
SW
11
1.5
SW
11
1.6
SW
13
1.6
SW
13
1.8
SW
15
3
WSW
14
4.5
SW
16
4
SW
16
3
SW
14
2.1
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.6
SW
12
1.4
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
0.8
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
422
544
809
784
1460
3403
10241
7146
3325
1514
1210
730
555
478
465
370
1096
2714
1793
1367
1155
Wind (km/h)
25
NNW
25
N
35
N
45
NNW
45
NW
50
WNW
50
SW
35
WSW
30
SW
20
W
25
WSW
15
WSW
10
WNW
5
WSW
10
NNE
10
NNE
10
NNW
20
N
35
N
35
NNW
25
W
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
8:32PM1.54m
10:57AM1.67m
9:43PM1.49m
11:57AM1.74m
10:58PM1.50m
12:46PM1.82m
00:05AM1.54m
1:26PM1.90m
1:02AM1.61m
2:01PM1.96m
1:51AM1.68m
2:32PM2.01m
2:34AM1.76m
Low Tide
3:23PM1.16m
3:38AM0.53m
4:44PM1.15m
4:41AM0.52m
5:56PM1.09m
5:41AM0.49m
6:51PM0.98m
6:33AM0.46m
7:35PM0.86m
7:19AM0.43m
8:12PM0.73m
8:00AM0.42m
8:45PM0.61m
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
clear
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
mod rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:26
7:24
7:24
7:22
7:22
7:22
7:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:25
5:27
5:28
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
 mm
5
5
2
2
3
2
3
10
Temp °C
14
15
13
14
14
10
12
11
11
11
12
11
10
11
11
11
14
12
12
14
13
Feels °C
9
9
6
5
5
-2
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
8
11
7
4
6
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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