Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 11 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.6° C
0.3° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 8,054 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 15 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Wed 15th Jul)8ft (2.4m) 14s
Best Surf10AM (Wed 15th Jul)8ft (2.4m) 14s
Most Powerful10PM (Mon 13th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Point Leo over the next couple of weeks.

We’re in for a proper run of solid, powerful swell, but it comes with a hefty dose of wind. The first few days are going to be a battle. The water is sitting around average for the time of year, nothing wild there.

The opening salvos on Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th are straight-up punishing. We’re talking a solid 10ft to 12ft of SW groundswell, with a very long period of 15-16 seconds on Monday. That’s a tonne of energy (combined energy in the thousands), but it’s being hammered by a strong offshore breeze. The surface will be clean, but paddling into waves will be a real mission. Unless you’re a local hero, it’s a day to watch.

The real turning point comes on Tuesday the 14th. The wind finally drops to a moderate breeze, swinging cross-offshore. The swell is still a chunky 12ft from the SW, but the conditions become clean and manageable. This is the standout for the first week. The energy is huge (combined energy over 10,000), meaning there’s plenty of push, and the longer period will make for some proper lines. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

After that, we get a sweet little window. Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th offer up some fantastic conditions. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft to 8ft, but the wind goes light. Thursday afternoon the 16th is glassy with a 3 mph westerly, and Friday the 17th is dead flat calm – glassy perfection. The swell is long-period groundswell, so expect clean, powerful walls. This is top-tier surf for any experienced surfer.

The weekend of the 18th and 19th sees the swell drop off significantly, and the wind picks up. It’s not a write-off, but you’ll be scratching for a clean wave.

Looking into the second week, there’s a promising blip. Thursday the 23rd looks like a return to form. The swell is back up to 6ft from the SW, with a 15-second period, and the wind is near glassy. The energy is solid (combined energy of 2,703). This is a long-range call, so treat it with a little caution, but it has the makings of another excellent day.

The 24th and 25th show a bit more size and some stronger winds, but the 24th afternoon is glassy again with a 8ft SW swell. After that, the run fades out into the 27th with some smaller, wind-affected waves.

So, to sum it up: the best on offer is Tuesday the 14th for the raw power, and then the window from Wednesday the 15th to Friday the 17th for the cleanest, most user-friendly conditions. The 23rd is a promising long-shot.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sun morning, moderate winds from the WSW by Tue afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Sat
18
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
0
2
2
2
3
3
6
6
4
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
3
2
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
WSW
13
3
WSW
12
3.5
WSW
12
3.5
WSW
13
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
16
4
SW
15
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
15
3
SW
15
2.4
SW
14
2.2
SW
14
1.9
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
2.1
SW
17
2.3
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
1.8
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.2
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
546
2144
3358
3666
5300
6051
7765
6027
4829
3580
2293
1744
1324
1220
1238
2471
2516
2102
1289
743
517
Wind (km/h)
40
NW
45
NW
40
NW
40
NW
40
NW
45
NW
40
W
30
W
25
WSW
20
WSW
15
NW
10
WNW
10
WNW
15
NW
5
W
15
NNW
10
NW
0
SSW
10
NNE
20
NNW
20
NNW
Wind State
off
off
off
off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
glassy
cross-off
off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
8:41AM1.90m
7:51PM1.82m
9:53AM1.94m
8:58PM1.79m
11:03AM1.99m
10:14PM1.79m
12:07PM2.07m
11:30PM1.83m
1:04PM2.14m
00:42AM1.89m
1:53PM2.19m
1:47AM1.95m
2:38PM2.22m
Low Tide
1:45AM0.16m
2:21PM1.00m
2:47AM0.12m
3:36PM1.03m
3:55AM0.09m
4:52PM1.00m
5:05AM0.07m
6:03PM0.89m
6:11AM0.05m
7:05PM0.74m
7:11AM0.07m
8:00PM0.58m
8:06AM0.12m
rain showers
cloud
light rain
rain showers
cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:16
5:17
5:19
 mm
9
3
4
1
4
1
Temp °C
10
12
12
13
13
14
13
12
13
13
12
14
13
13
14
14
12
13
12
12
14
Feels °C
0
2
4
5
4
5
5
5
7
8
9
12
11
10
13
11
11
11
10
7
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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