Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Issued: 3 am 06 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
14.0° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 3,051 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.6m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 2.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Mon 6th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Best Surf 1AM (Fri 10th Jul)5ft (1.5m) 17s
Most Powerful10AM (Mon 13th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for Point Leo, and the next two weeks are a proper mixed bag. We’ve got a decent run of waves to kick things off, but then it gets messy with some serious wind before a promising finish. Let’s break it down.

The week starts sweet. Monday morning, the 6th of July, we’ve got a clean 5ft swell from the SW, with a light NNE cross-off breeze. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy is moderate (1029), and that 14-second period means the waves will have some real push. It’s looking very good for a paddle.

Tuesday the 7th keeps the good times rolling with a 3ft SW swell in the morning, but the period jumps to a massive 17 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and it’ll wrap around Point Leo’s reef nicely. The combined energy is moderate (845), and the NNE cross-off breeze keeps it clean. The afternoon picks up to 5ft, though the wind swings to a light cross-on, which is a bit less ideal.

Wednesday the 8th is where things get interesting. The combined energy kicks up to a strong 2403 in the morning with a 5ft swell, but the wind is a light cross-on, so it’s not perfect. The afternoon sees the swell jump to 7ft, and the energy hits very strong (2954). That’s a lot of power, but the wind is onshore and the period is 18 seconds, which is a long period groundswell. For a reef like Point Leo, that’s a good thing, but it’s a solid size – over 7ft, so this one is for the experienced crew only.

Thursday the 9th is a real standout. The morning has a 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period and a clean cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate (1048). But the afternoon session is the pick of the week: glassy conditions, 4ft swell, and a 15-second period. That’s as clean as it gets. The energy is moderate (799), but the glassy wind means no bumps, just smooth lines. This is the best on offer for the first week.

Friday the 10th is another solid day. Morning has a 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period, moderate energy (1238), and a clean N cross-off. The afternoon is similar with a 5ft swell. Good, consistent surf.

Now, hold on to your board, because from Saturday the 11th through to the 18th, it’s a rough patch. Saturday morning, the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the north, and while it’s cross-off, it’s just too strong. The swell is only 4ft, and the energy is weak (521). Sunday the 12th is even worse with a strong breeze up to 28 mph, and the swell drops to 3ft. The energy is very weak (307). Monday the 13th is a full-on gale, with 31 mph winds and a 8ft lumpy swell. The energy is very strong (3136), but it’s a washing machine. The wind doesn’t let up much through the rest of the week, with onshore and cross-onshore winds making a mess of everything. The swell sticks around but it’s blown out. This is a gap of about 8 days where you’d want to be doing something else.

Then, look at the horizon. Sunday the 19th of July, the charts fire up again. The morning has a clean 6ft SW swell, with a 16-second period, moderate energy (1444), and a gentle cross-off breeze. The forecast says this is excellent for experienced surfers, and I can see why. It’s a proper return to form.

Monday the 20th is also promising. The afternoon has a 6ft WSW swell, moderate energy (1093), a gentle cross-off, and a 14-second period. It’s looking very good.

Tuesday the 21st is a big one, but it’s also a long way out. The swell jumps to 8ft with a 15-second period, and the energy is very strong (3037). The wind is a strong cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but at that size, it’s only for the experts. Keep an eye on this one, but treat it as a promising long-range bet.

The true standout in this whole 16-day window is the afternoon of Thursday the 9th of July at Point Leo (Point Leo). The glassy conditions on a 4ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period are just about perfect. Clean, powerful, and no wind. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue night, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu afternoon, strong winds from the N by Sat night).

Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
1
3
2
1
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
19
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.4
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.5
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.5
SW
15
1.3
WSW
15
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
0.9
WSW
13
1
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
12
1.8
WSW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1006
726
398
568
1096
1062
1357
2714
1571
952
757
1312
1164
979
720
521
431
299
304
251
1692
Wind (km/h)
10
NNE
5
SW
10
NE
10
NNE
5
SSE
15
E
10
ENE
10
SSE
15
ENE
10
N
5
NE
10
N
15
N
10
N
20
N
30
N
35
N
50
N
45
NNW
40
NW
35
WNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
High Tide
3:59PM2.03m
4:10AM1.72m
4:28PM2.00m
4:53AM1.77m
4:57PM1.97m
5:41AM1.81m
5:30PM1.94m
6:34AM1.85m
6:09PM1.90m
7:34AM1.88m
6:55PM1.86m
8:41AM1.90m
7:51PM1.82m
Low Tide
10:18PM0.57m
10:07AM0.52m
10:50PM0.49m
10:46AM0.60m
11:24PM0.39m
11:30AM0.70m
00:04AM0.30m
12:19PM0.80m
00:50AM0.22m
1:16PM0.91m
1:45AM0.16m
2:21PM1.00m
2:47AM0.12m
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
rain showers
light rain
thunderstorm
mod rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:37
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:10
5:12
5:12
5:13
5:13
5:14
5:15
 mm
2
2
2
6
Temp °C
10
12
12
11
13
14
11
12
11
10
12
11
11
13
11
13
13
13
11
11
10
Feels °C
9
10
11
10
10
10
9
10
7
8
10
9
7
10
7
6
6
4
1
3
0
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
19
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.4
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.5
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.5
SW
15
1.3
WSW
15
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
0.9
WSW
13
1
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
12
1.8
WSW
16
Energy kJ
1006
726
398
568
1096
1062
1357
2714
1571
952
757
1312
1164
979
720
521
431
299
304
251
1692
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SE
5
0.3
SE
5
0.3
SW
19
0.9
SW
13
0.3
SSW
16
0.1
SW
24
1.4
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
ESE
5
0.3
SE
5
0.3
SSW
15
0.8
SW
18
0.4
SSW
15
0.3
S
14
0.1
SE
10
0.2
WSW
5
0.4
SW
18
0.4
NW
4
Energy kJ
14
4
59
277
50
22
784
240
14
3
42
370
74
34
4
3
79
4
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.3
SE
4
0.2
ESE
12
0.6
S
19
0.4
SSW
15
0.4
SE
4
0.2
SSW
14
0.1
E
6
Energy kJ
3
14
262
93
4
21
1
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
NE
4
0.9
E
5
0.6
NNW
4
0.6
N
3
0.8
NNW
4
1.2
N
5
0.6
NW
4
0.4
NNW
3
0.7
W
4
Energy kJ
9
36
10
8
22
60
14
3
19
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
3
Distance (km)
0
8
2
0
10
10
8
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
8
35
91
102
166
460
62
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
4
3
3
4
3
4
3
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
8
7
4
5
7
6
6
4
4
5
4
4
4
2
2
8
6
5
5
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
6
4
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
5
5
6
5
8
5
5
8
6
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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