
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 7,786 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Sun 26th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it.
We're looking at a 16-day window for Point Leo, and honestly, the first few days are a bit of a mixed bag, but there's some real gold waiting for us if we're patient. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is pretty much normal for the time of year, so nothing too wild there.
The run starts this Sunday, the 26th of July. Sunday morning is looking like a solid start. We've got a 6 ft SW groundswell, with a period of 11 seconds, and a nice offshore breeze. The energy is sitting at 699 (moderate), and the conditions are clean. It's a good, honest wave.
Sunday afternoon holds up well too, with a 5 ft SW swell and glassy conditions, but the crowds are a thing here. Point Leo can get busy, so expect to share the water.
Monday, the 27th, sees the swell dip a little to 4 ft, and the wind goes cross-offshore. It's still surfable, but not as crisp. Tuesday morning the 28th is a write-off with 25 mph winds, but the afternoon gets interesting with a 6 ft, 14-second groundswell. The wind is offshore, but it's a strong 28 mph, making it a real battle to get out. The energy is ramping up too – 1465 (strong).
Wednesday, the 29th, is a no-go. The swell jumps to 13 ft with a 16-second period, but it's accompanied by 28 mph cross-shore winds and rain. The energy is massive at 7786 (very strong), but it's a washing machine. This is a day for experts only if they're feeling masochistic, but honestly, it looks more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day.
Thursday the 30th is still messy, with lumpy cross-chop, though the swell drops to 7 ft.
Now, here's where it gets good. Friday, the 31st of July, is the standout. The morning is clear, with a 5 ft SW swell, 12-second period, and a light 3 mph wind, almost glassy. The energy is a manageable 759 (moderate). The conditions are clean as a whistle. This is the one to circle. The morning session is the pick.
Saturday the 1st of August is also a beauty. The morning is clean with a 4 ft swell, but the afternoon is the real treat: clear skies, a 4 ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, and a light offshore. The energy is 1028 (strong). Long-period groundswells like this love Point Leo's reef setup, so expect some nice, long lines.
Sunday the 2nd of August is another solid day. Both morning and afternoon have 6 ft SW groundswells with 15-16 second periods. The wind is light and cross-offshore. The afternoon session is rated excellent for experienced surfers, with an energy of 1529 (strong).
The week after that holds some promise, but it's less certain. Tuesday the 4th of August has a 10 ft SW swell in the afternoon, with a 12-second period and light winds. Excellent for experienced surfers, but that's a big wave for Point Leo.
Wednesday the 5th of August is another big potential day. The morning has a 4 ft, 18-second period groundswell with a gentle offshore. That's a very long-period swell, which can be a bit tricky at some spots, but at a reef like Point Leo, it should reel off beautifully. The energy is 1704 (strong). The afternoon sees a 10 ft, 17-second wave, but with a cross-shore wind.
From Friday the 7th of August onward, the forecast gets a bit messy. The swell drops and the wind picks up, with strong breezes and near-gale conditions by the 9th. The consistency drops off, and it looks like a bit of a blank run for clean, quality surf.
So, the best in the window is without a doubt Friday the 31st of July for those clean, fun waves, followed closely by the glassy sessions on Saturday the 1st of August. The long-range stuff on the 4th and 5th of August is promising, but we'll have to wait and see how that one shapes up.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Wed night. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Wed morning, calm by Fri afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
688 | 606 | 487 | 422 | 488 | 433 | 837 | 1196 | 2144 | 7786 | 5658 | 2708 | 1537 | 1395 | 986 | 678 | 461 | 363 | 335 | 920 | 1474 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:37PM1.61m | 9:48AM1.64m | 8:32PM1.54m | 10:57AM1.67m | 9:43PM1.49m | 11:57AM1.74m | 10:58PM1.50m | 12:46PM1.82m | 00:05AM1.54m | 1:26PM1.90m | 1:02AM1.61m | 2:01PM1.96m | 1:51AM1.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:12PM1.10m | 2:37AM0.50m | 3:23PM1.16m | 3:38AM0.53m | 4:44PM1.15m | 4:41AM0.52m | 5:56PM1.09m | 5:41AM0.49m | 6:51PM0.98m | 6:33AM0.46m | 7:35PM0.86m | 7:19AM0.43m | 8:12PM0.73m | ||||||||
7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | |
— | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | — | WSW 15 | SSW 14 | SW 13 | SSE 5 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
688 | 606 | 487 | 422 | 488 | 433 | 837 | 1196 | 2144 | — | 4498 | 41 | 1537 | 5 | 986 | 678 | 461 | 363 | 335 | 920 | 1474 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | — | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 12 | SSW 16 |
11 | 26 | 26 | 106 | — | 313 | — | 269 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 72 | 99 | 130 | 300 | 108 | 144 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | S 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 21 | SW 20 | SSW 19 | SSW 17 | — | — |
— | — | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 98 | 36 | 29 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 2 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | WNW 4 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SSW 6 | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | N 2 | NW 3 | NNW 4 |
— | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 56 | 53 | 34 | 7786 | 5658 | 2708 | 98 | 1395 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 95 | 303 | 269 | 273 | 324 | 300 | 66 | 66 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










