Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 27 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.2° C
0.2° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 31 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 12s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 11,354 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 24s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Fri 31st Jul)5.5ft (1.7m) 12s
Best Surf 1AM (Fri 31st Jul)5.5ft (1.7m) 12s
Most Powerful 7AM (Wed 29th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Point Leo. We’ve got a bit of a wild ride ahead, with a big pulse of energy hitting the coast, but you’ll have to be patient through some serious wind.

Right now, the water temp at Point Leo is sitting at 56°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year. Nothing unusual there.

The first real reason to paddle out comes on Monday afternoon the 27th of July. It's not a classic, but there's some swell starting to show. You’re looking at 5ft of SW swell, with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 488. The wind is a cross-off from the north at 16 mph, which will keep things clean. It’s not a standout, but it’s a start.

Now, Tuesday the 28th is a write-off. The wind is howling from the NNW at 28 mph, even though it’s offshore. That’s a strong breeze, and while the swell bumps up to 5ft-6ft with a longer 13-15 second period, the conditions are just too wild. The combined energy jumps to 837, and then to 1888, but you’ll be fighting the wind. Forget it.

Wednesday the 29th is for the brave and the reckless. The swell absolutely detonates, hitting 15ft in the morning from the SW with a 16-second period. That’s 9617 of combined energy – strong stuff. But the wind is a near gale from the SW at 31 mph. This is big, dangerous, and messy. Only for experts, and even then, it’s borderline dangerous. The afternoon drops slightly to 13ft, but the wind is still 22 mph. This is more kite-surfing territory than paddle surfing.

Thursday the 30th is still a bit of a beast. The swell is still 7ft in the morning, dropping to 6ft in the afternoon. The period is a solid 13 seconds. The combined energy is still high at 3170 and 2012. The wind is better, a moderate breeze from the W and WSW, but it’s still cross-off. It’s *marginal* – the waves will be there, but the quality is questionable.

Finally, we get some relief. Friday the 31st of July is a proper day. The swell drops to a manageable 5ft in the morning, then 4ft in the afternoon. The period is 12 seconds. The combined energy is back down to a comfortable 609 and 547. The wind is light from the WSW, just 6-9 mph, making for clean conditions. It’s not a monster, but it’s *good* surf. The morning is the pick.

Saturday the 1st of August is interesting. The morning is small, just 3ft, but with a very long 18-second period from the SW. The energy is 738. The wind is a light breeze from the NNE. This is a classic groundswell – it’s going to be clean and glassy, but that long period might make it close out a bit at the beach. It’s a point-and-reef setup here, so it should handle it well. The afternoon sees the swell jump to 5ft with a 16-second period and 1725 of energy. The wind stays light. It’s *very good* for the morning, but the afternoon is marginal.

Sunday the 2nd of August is blown out again. The wind is a strong breeze from the NNW at 25 mph. The swell is 6ft-6ft with a 16-second period. The energy is high (1922 and 1540), but the wind is just too strong for a good time.

The Standout: Without a doubt, the best window is Wednesday the 5th of August. The morning is looking world-class. You’ve got a 7ft SW swell with a massive 19-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is 3040 (strong). The wind is a light 6 mph breeze from the NNE, keeping it clean. The data calls it *excellent for experienced surfers*, and at 7ft, it’s a proper size for the crew who know what they’re doing. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon drops off and the wind goes onshore, so get on it early.

After that, the swell fades out. The 6th and 7th of August have some clean, small waves worth checking, but the real pulse is gone. By the 8th of August, the wind comes up again and the energy drops, and the window closes out with poor conditions through the 11th.

So, the plan: wait out the mid-week gale, enjoy a clean Friday, and then mark your calendar for Wednesday the 5th of August. That’s the day.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue night, moderate winds from the W by Wed night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sun morning).

Mon
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
0
2
0
0
3
2
3
3
3
2
2
1
3
3
3
1
2
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
SW
11
1.6
SW
13
1.6
SW
13
1.8
SW
15
3
WSW
14
4.5
SW
16
4
SW
16
3
SW
14
2.2
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.7
SW
12
1.4
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
0.8
SW
18
1.5
SW
16
2.2
SW
17
1.8
SW
16
1.7
SW
16
2.2
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
488
809
784
1441
3842
9617
6637
3438
1619
1210
854
555
478
465
370
1109
2846
1771
1456
1983
Wind (km/h)
25
N
35
N
45
NNW
45
NW
50
WNW
50
SW
35
WSW
25
SW
25
W
25
WSW
15
W
15
WNW
10
WSW
10
NE
15
NNE
20
NNW
25
N
40
NNW
35
WNW
25
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
High Tide
8:32PM1.54m
10:57AM1.67m
9:43PM1.49m
11:57AM1.74m
10:58PM1.50m
12:46PM1.82m
00:05AM1.54m
1:26PM1.90m
1:02AM1.61m
2:01PM1.96m
1:51AM1.68m
2:32PM2.01m
2:34AM1.76m
Low Tide
3:38AM0.53m
4:44PM1.15m
4:41AM0.52m
5:56PM1.09m
5:41AM0.49m
6:51PM0.98m
6:33AM0.46m
7:35PM0.86m
7:19AM0.43m
8:12PM0.73m
8:00AM0.42m
8:45PM0.61m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
light rain
rain showers
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
clear
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:24
7:24
7:22
7:22
7:22
7:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:25
5:27
5:28
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
 mm
4
4
3
1
4
1
1
2
2
Temp °C
15
12
15
13
10
12
11
11
11
12
11
10
11
11
12
14
11
13
9
11
Feels °C
9
4
6
4
-2
2
3
4
5
7
7
7
9
10
8
9
6
4
2
5
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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