
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 21 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 13s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 6,701 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 21 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 13s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let's get into it. This is a look at Point Leo out on the Mornington Peninsula, a classic reef set-up that loves a good SW groundswell. Water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, nothing unusual there.
Right now, things are a bit slow. Tuesday's got some small 5ft to 5ft swell from the SW, but the wind is a messy cross-off from the NNW. It's clean, but the energy is just moderate (931) and the surf forecast is a bit marginal. Not really worth paddling out for the effort.
Wednesday looks grim. That NW wind is cranking at 19 mph, and while it's offshore, it's also blowing out any chance of a decent wave. The swell is dropping to 4ft, and the energy is fading fast (501). Thursday is a whole different story. The swell jumps up to 10ft from the SW, but the wind is a howling cross-off, 22 mph in the morning and 25 mph in the afternoon. That's a lot of juice (5532 in the morning) but it's going to be a battle. For the experienced crew, there might be some big, raw walls, but for most of us, it's going to be a blowy mess.
The real standout of this whole run is Friday the 24th. Overnight, the swell builds to 12ft from the SW with a long 15-second period, and the energy is cranking - we're talking 11101. The wind is a fresh 19 mph from the WNW, which is cross-off, keeping the waves clean. This is a big, powerful, long-period groundswell. For a reef like Point Leo, that's the recipe for some serious, grinding lines. It's big. Over 8ft, so this is for the experienced crew only. Beginners, stay on the beach for this one.
Saturday the 25th the swell is still up, 8ft to 10ft, but the energy is dropping and the wind is still fresh. It's not the same quality as Friday.
We get a bit of a breather on Sunday the 26th. The swell drops to 6ft, the wind swings to a light offshore from the WNW at 12 mph, and the energy is moderate (798). The report says "expect very good surf conditions." That's a clean, fun, and much more manageable day. Monday the 27th looks similar, with 7ft swell and a 16 mph offshore, though the energy is picking back up a bit.
Then we get another big pulse on Tuesday the 28th. Swell is a solid 13ft from the SW, with a very long 16-second period. The energy is through the roof (7637). But the wind is a gentle cross from the SSW, with a slight cross-chop. It's big, powerful, and a little bumpy. Again, expert territory only.
The week after that, from the 29th of July into early August, the size drops off significantly. The wind is lighter and glassy at times, especially on the morning of Saturday the 1st of August with 4ft swell and glassy conditions. That's a nice, small, clean day for a longboard. But the real story is that first week of August, the 2nd and 3rd look pretty poor with tiny, weak swell and onshore winds. The energy is low (245). The 4th and 5th start to build again, with a 7ft swell from the SW and a 19-second period on the 4th, but it's a long way out and less certain.
So, to sum it up: Friday the 24th of July is the absolute standout. It's a big, powerful, long-period SW groundswell with clean conditions. It's for experts only, but it's going to be epic. The Sunday the 26th before that is your best bet for a more user-friendly, clean, fun session. The Saturday the 1st of August is a nice glassy day for the smaller gear.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Tue afternoon, strong winds from the WSW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Fri afternoon, light winds from the W by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
895 | 711 | 449 | 480 | 449 | 1172 | 3285 | 4053 | 6467 | 5896 | 4401 | 2664 | 2306 | 1902 | 1374 | 798 | 544 | 423 | 1065 | 2207 | 3609 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 4:35PM2.11m | 5:19AM1.91m | 5:09PM2.01m | 6:06AM1.84m | 5:43PM1.90m | 6:53AM1.77m | 6:17PM1.80m | 7:43AM1.70m | 6:53PM1.70m | 8:41AM1.65m | 7:37PM1.61m | 9:48AM1.64m | 8:32PM1.54m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:27AM0.49m | 11:01PM0.24m | 11:09AM0.63m | 11:41PM0.27m | 11:50AM0.77m | 00:20AM0.32m | 12:31PM0.90m | 1:00AM0.39m | 1:17PM1.01m | 1:45AM0.46m | 2:12PM1.10m | 2:37AM0.50m | 3:23PM1.16m | 3:38AM0.53m | |||||||
7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
— | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
Feels °C | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
895 | 711 | 449 | 480 | 449 | 241 | 3285 | 31 | 306 | 5205 | 3563 | 2664 | 2306 | 1902 | 1374 | 798 | 544 | 423 | 1065 | 2207 | 3609 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | — | E 11 | WSW 15 | E 10 | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — |
36 | — | 2 | 21 | 2 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | E 10 | E 10 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 2 | 2 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | W 5 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | NW 4 | SW 12 | SW 12 | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | WNW 5 | SW 14 |
2 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 1172 | 2247 | 4053 | 6467 | 5896 | 4401 | 29 | 1550 | 1249 | — | 3 | 3 | 24 | 36 | 37 | 2484 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 2 | 25 | 61 | 66 | 61 | 66 | 517 | 472 | 62 | 454 | 62 | 66 | 78 | 61 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 62 | 66 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










