Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and we’re looking at Point Leo on the Mornington Peninsula for the next couple of weeks. After a messy start to the weekend, we’ve got some real standouts coming up, with a classic winter run of SW groundswell and sweet conditions.

Right now, the water’s sitting at a mild 58°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for July, nothing weird. A little warmer than average, but barely noticeable.

The weekend is a write-off. A big 10ft SW swell rolls in Saturday morning with a cross-off WSW wind at 16 mph and combined wave energy of 2740, but the whole vibe is marginal. By Sunday it’s a no-go—onshore ESE winds at 16 mph and the swell jumps to a whopping 6604 energy reading but with poor surf conditions. Don’t bother paddling out. It’s a solid gap of poor surf until things change.

Monday 6 July is where it gets good. Morning sees the swell drop to a clean 5ft from the SW, with a NNE cross-off breeze at just 6 mph and energy at 1025. Clean, inviting, and the sort of morning that makes you forget the weekend. The standouts keep coming Monday afternoon when it goes glassy with a SSE breath at 3 mph and 4ft of SW swell. That’s clean as a whistle, perfect for trimming down the reef.

Tuesday 7 July morning is another beauty: 3ft SW groundswell (17-second period—long, lots of push between sets), NE glassy wind at 3 mph, energy around 857. The period is long, which at Point Leo reef will draw the swell in nicely and produce some proper shape. Beginners will love it, the size is well within their comfort zone.

Wednesday 8 July afternoon is a certified standout for the experienced crew. A clean 7ft SW swell rolls in, NNE cross-off at 3 mph, energy reading 2768, and the conditions are excellent. This is a solid reef wave with plenty of grunt—big enough to get the heart racing but not out of control if you know the spot. The crowd factor is “sometimes” here, so you might share it, but with this quality, it’s worth the company.

A gap then opens up after Thursday 10 July. Friday 11 morning is clean but dropping to 5ft with NNE winds, okay but nothing special. Then from Sunday 12 July through to Tuesday 15 July, it’s a mix of poor surf, strong winds (light rain, NNW up to 28 mph), and lumpy conditions. A dry spell of a few days.

Things kick back to life on Wednesday 16 July afternoon. That’s 8ft SW swell, NW offshore at 9 mph, clean as, with energy 2559 and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. A late-winter gem.

Friday 17 July and Saturday 18 July bring big swells again—10ft to 13ft SW—with strong offshore NW winds and energy readings from 3682 to over 7700. This is expert territory only. The period around 14 seconds means it’s got some grunt, but at these sizes only the boldest should be out. Crowds are “sometimes,” so expect a few chargers. By Sunday 19 July it drops back to a clean 5ft with offshore winds, but the energy is low at 786, so it’s a mellow finish to the run.

Best on offer: This stretch from Monday 6 July through Wednesday 8 July afternoon. That 7ft on Wednesday with glassy cross-off wind is the clear standout for quality. For the second week, Wednesday 16 July afternoon is your best bet—big, clean, and powerful.

Stay safe, keep your wits about you when it gets solid, and remember: this is a reef, so take care on the low tide.

Rusty.

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