Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 14 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.8°C
1.1° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 13 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 18 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,078 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 14 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 14) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 10PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Mon 14th Sep)3.5ft (1.0m) 14s
Best Surf 7AM (Fri 18th Sep)5.5ft (1.7m) 13s
Most Powerful 7PM (Tue 15th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break it down.

So we’ve got a mixed bag coming up. The first few days have some clean, small waves for the beginners, but then things get big and messy mid-week. After that, there are a couple of standout sessions, especially later in the month, that’ll fire you up. There’s a real gap in quality surf from around Tuesday the 15th through to late in the week, so plan around that.

We start Monday the 14th at Point Leo – a nice, easy reef break that’s beginner-friendly and fairly consistent. The water temp is 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not huge, but you’ll notice it’s a bit more comfortable. Monday morning is looking good: cloudy sky, light offshore wind from the WNW at 9 mph, and a clean 3.3 ft swell from the SW, period 14 seconds. Combined swell energy is moderate at 372. It’s not big, but it’s clean and should be fun for a longboard. The afternoon stays clean with a WSW cross-off breeze and 3 ft SW swell. A nice, mellow start.

Now Tuesday the 15th is where things get a bit wild. Morning brings rain showers and a strong WSW breeze at 25 mph, cross-off but strong. The swell jumps to 10 ft from the SW with a 13-second period. Combined energy rockets to 2995 – that’s strong stuff. This is expert territory for sure, and the wind is going to make it messy. By the afternoon, the wind swings SW at 25 mph, cross-shore, and the swell is 11.5 ft – combined energy 4363. It’s a full-on, windy, choppy mess. Not one for the casual paddle.

Wednesday the 16th is more of the same – 10 ft SW swell, but onshore winds from the SSW at 16-19 mph. Energy readings are massive – 6315 and 6002 – but the quality is poor. Lumpy, choppy, cross-onshore conditions. Not worth it for surfing.

Thursday the 17th sees the swell drop to 6.9 ft in the morning, but still with a cross-shore wind. By the afternoon, things improve: the wind goes cross-off from the WSW at 9 mph, and the swell is a cleaner 5.9 ft from the SW with a 14-second period. Combined energy is 1310 – moderate. Conditions are looking very good. This is a solid window for experienced surfers.

Friday the 18th is the real highlight of the first week. Morning is clear with a light NW offshore at 12 mph, and the swell is 5.2 ft from the SW, period 14 seconds. Combined energy 1725. It’s clean, it’s offshore, and the waves are solid. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The afternoon is even better – WNW offshore at 9 mph, 5.9 ft SW swell with a 16-second period – that’s a long period groundswell. Combined energy 1952. The waves will have real push and shape, especially good at a reef like Point Leo. Crowds can show up sometimes, but with quality like this, it’s worth the company.

Saturday the 19th is a bit of a letdown in the morning – 5.6 ft SW swell, but a fresh NNW breeze at 19 mph makes it cross-off. Clean but not ideal. The afternoon sees the wind drop to 12 mph from the NW, offshore, with a 4.9 ft SW swell. Combined energy 793 – moderate. Conditions are very good again, but it’s not as strong as Friday.

Sunday the 20th is another one to skip. Strong NNW winds at 28 mph in the morning, cross-off but powerful, with a 7.9 ft WSW swell. Energy is 1715 but the wind is going to ruin it. Afternoon is 10 ft WSW swell with WNW winds at 22 mph. Not great.

Now we get into the second week. Monday the 21st sees a big 11.5 ft SW swell, but onshore winds from the SSE at 6-9 mph. Combined energy is massive – 7242 and 5513. The setup looks more

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Thu night, strong winds from the N by Sat night).

Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Saturday
19
Sunday
20
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
2
3
3
4
4
2
1
3
0
0
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
14
0.9
SW
13
0.6
SW
13
3
SW
13
3.5
SW
13
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.8
SW
13
1.6
SW
14
1.8
SW
16
1.8
SW
14
1.7
SW
13
1.5
SW
13
1.2
WSW
13
2.4
WSW
12
3
WSW
12
3.5
SW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
357
295
128
2995
4363
4555
3866
3612
2982
1855
1280
1102
961
1675
1273
1006
757
430
1715
2400
3521
Wind (km/h)
15
WNW
15
SW
25
W
40
WSW
45
SW
35
SSW
30
SSW
25
SSW
20
SSW
20
SW
15
WSW
10
NNW
20
NW
20
WNW
30
NNW
30
NNW
20
NW
35
N
50
NNW
35
WNW
40
WSW
Wind State
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-off
off
off
off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
1:42PM2.01m
2:20AM2.11m
2:19PM2.03m
3:01AM2.13m
2:54PM2.02m
3:39AM2.11m
3:27PM1.98m
4:15AM2.05m
3:58PM1.93m
4:50AM1.96m
4:29PM1.85m
5:27AM1.85m
5:00PM1.76m
Low Tide
7:58PM0.23m
8:23AM0.48m
8:37PM0.16m
9:01AM0.52m
9:13PM0.14m
9:37AM0.57m
9:47PM0.17m
10:11AM0.64m
10:21PM0.24m
10:43AM0.73m
10:55PM0.33m
11:17AM0.83m
11:31PM0.43m
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:22
6:20
6:20
6:18
6:16
6:15
6:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:07
6:08
6:09
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
 mm
1
2
Temp °C
16
15
15
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
17
20
15
22
23
18
21
19
13
Feels °C
13
12
12
1
1
1
3
4
5
6
6
7
13
16
9
16
18
13
12
12
6
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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