Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 21 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 18s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 4,193 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Fri 21st Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright mates, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Point Leo. The next 16 days are a mixed bag, a real tale of two halves. The start is a bit of a write-off, but hold on, because there’s a couple of windows where this place is going to fire.
First thing to note is the water temp is sitting at 55°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing crazy there. For the first few days, it’s pretty grim. Sunday and Monday are looking poor with small, onshore bump. The swell is there but it's small and junky, and the wind is just killing it. You'd be flogging a dead horse.
We're looking at a real dry spell from the 17th through to the 20th. The waves stay small and the winds are either onshore or just not clean enough. It’s not worth getting wet for, to be honest. The energy is weak too, with the combined swell energy sitting in the 300-400 range – that’s a lot of effort for not much reward.
Then things start to change around Friday the 21st. The morning is looking promising with a gentle offshore breeze and a 3ft SW swell at 19 seconds. That long period is lovely, it’s got some proper push behind it. By the afternoon, the swell bumps to 4ft and the wind stays offshore. The combined energy jumps to 1497, which is moderate, and it’s clean. That's a nice little session, a chance to get some fun ones.
Now, here’s where we need to be careful. Saturday the 22nd sees a big jump in size with 10ft on the cards, but it’s coming with a cross-shore wind and the energy is huge at 7118. That's strong-to-very-strong energy, and this spot is a reef break. At that size, with a cross-shore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. Only for the brave, and likely too big and messy for most.
After that, the swell stays solid for the next few days, in that 8ft to 12ft range, and the wind goes offshore. It’s big, powerful, and clean. But this is a reef, and with 10ft+ surf, it’s expert territory only. The periods are around 14-16 seconds, so there’s plenty of juice, but you’d want your wits about you. The energy readings are high, 2979 to 4112, confirming the ocean’s got plenty of grunt. For most of us, this is a watch-from-the-cliff kind of day.
The ocean then starts to settle down, but the wind turns against us again on the 25th and 26th, making things lumpy and poor. So we wait.
Now for the standout. Thursday the 27th is your day. The morning has a 5ft SW swell with an 18-second period, and the wind is light and cross-off. But it’s the afternoon that has me excited. The swell pushes up to 8ft, still from the SW, period 18 seconds, and the wind goes glassy. Glassy, mates! That’s zero wind. The combined swell energy is a solid 3529, which is strong and powerful. This is the one. A clean, glassy, long-period SW groundswell on a reef. It’s going to be perfect. The wave direction is matching the optimum for the spot, and it's going to have some real form to it. This is the standout of the whole window. Get out there if you can. There will be waves for the experienced crew, but that 8ft on a reef is still a serious step up for anyone not comfortable in solid surf.
After that, we get a bit of a wind-affected weekend. The 28th and 29th have some clean-ish conditions, but the swell drops off. The 29th afternoon looks fun with 4ft and glassy conditions again, a nice little come-down after the big day. The period is back to 14 seconds, so not as much push, but it’ll still be clean and playful. A good way to finish off, but the real winner is the 27th.
The final two days, the 30th and 31st, the wind gets up again, so we'll leave those alone. So mark your calendar for the 27th of August. That's the one that’s got my heart racing.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Thu afternoon, strong winds from the WSW by Fri afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 13 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1238 | 1048 | 911 | 885 | 1367 | 1171 | 676 | 621 | 465 | 305 | 236 | 217 | 161 | 214 | 406 | 450 | 799 | 3385 | 4193 | 3388 | 3784 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 2:13PM2.13m | 2:37AM2.04m | 2:51PM2.14m | 3:24AM2.06m | 3:27PM2.12m | 4:08AM2.04m | 4:01PM2.07m | 4:48AM1.99m | 4:33PM1.99m | 5:28AM1.90m | 5:04PM1.90m | 6:08AM1.81m | 5:36PM1.80m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:28PM0.31m | 8:41AM0.35m | 9:10PM0.21m | 9:24AM0.43m | 9:49PM0.16m | 10:03AM0.53m | 10:25PM0.18m | 10:39AM0.64m | 11:01PM0.23m | 11:15AM0.75m | 11:37PM0.31m | 11:50AM0.87m | 00:14AM0.40m | ||||||||
7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | |
— | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 18 | SSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
1238 | 1048 | 911 | 885 | 1367 | 1171 | 676 | 621 | 465 | 305 | 236 | 217 | 161 | 180 | 406 | 247 | 799 | 26 | 4193 | 3388 | 3784 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SE 5 | SE 4 | SE 4 | SW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 18 | SSW 16 | ESE 4 | SE 7 | SE 7 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 21 | SW 16 | SW 14 | — | — | — | SSW 16 |
104 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 69 | 83 | 201 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 59 | 155 | 214 | 71 | 358 | 476 | — | — | — | 94 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SSW 11 | — | SE 5 | — | ESE 4 | SW 15 | — | E 6 | S 17 | E 7 | — | SW 19 | WSW 11 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 25 | — | 7 | — | 8 | 9 | — | 1 | 23 | 1 | — | 450 | 222 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SE 4 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | ESE 5 | — | ESE 5 | NE 3 | N 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 3 | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | — |
— | — | 3 | 11 | 5 | 21 | — | 11 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 3385 | 2925 | 2350 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 3 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 35 | 30 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 66 | 78 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











