
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 8,854 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 15 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
G’day crew, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of surf on the cards for Point Leo, but it’s a mixed bag of clean gems and some proper heavy water that’ll sort the men from the boys. The water’s sitting at about 57°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year – nothing weird going on there.
We kick things off on Friday afternoon, 10 July, with a glassy 5ft SW groundswell rolling in at 15 seconds. The energy’s moderate (979), and with a light NNE breeze leaving the surface like a mirror, this is one of the true standouts of the period. It’s small but beautifully clean, perfect for a beginner session at this reef – just watch for the occasional set.
Saturday the 11th turns ugly. A strong northerly rips through at 19 to 28 mph, blowing cross-off but making conditions messy and the surf drops to 3-4ft. This is a write-off – don’t bother paddling out.
Sunday the 12th is a different beast altogether. The swell jumps to 10ft in the morning from the WSW with a 11-second period, and then hits 12ft in the afternoon (12 seconds). The energy is huge (2409-3461), but the wind is howling at 25-28 mph from the NW/WNW. It’s clean but it’s a battle just to get out. This is expert-only territory – and honestly, with that much wind and size, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
Monday the 13th keeps the size at 12ft from the SW, with a very long 15-second period. The offshore NW wind is strong at 25 mph, so it’s clean but again, hard to paddle into. The energy is massive (4962-6218). Only for the experienced crew.
Tuesday the 14th is the real standout. The morning sees a 13ft SW groundswell with an incredibly long 16-second period – the energy hits 11440, which is absolutely pumping. There’s a fresh westerly cross-off at 19 mph, but the wave quality is there for experienced surfers. The afternoon drops to 12ft but it’s still huge. This is the pick of the first week if you’ve got the skills.
Wednesday the 15th to Thursday the 16th brings it back down. Wednesday morning has 8ft SW swell with a moderate offshore NW breeze – clean, but still solid. By Thursday morning, we’re into 6-6ft of SW groundswell (14 seconds) with light offshore NW winds, glassy conditions. This is another high point: excellent surf for experienced surfers, and the crowds are only sometimes a problem, so you might get a few waves to yourself.
Friday the 17th keeps the quality going with 7-8ft SW swell, 16-second period, and light offshore NW winds – clean, glassy, and pumping energy (1996-2873). Another beauty.
Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are a letdown. The swell fades to 3-5ft and the wind swings northerly at 12-28 mph, cross-off and messy. Poor conditions, best to give it a miss.
Monday the 20th sees a return to clean surf with 4-4ft SW groundswell (16 seconds) and a moderate offshore breeze from the NW/WNW. Very surfable and clean, just small.
Tuesday the 21st is marginal with 3-4ft WSW swell and moderate winds – nothing to write home about.
Now, Wednesday the 22nd through Thursday the 23rd is another big pulse. Wednesday afternoon jumps to 10ft WSW swell (12 seconds) with moderate offshore NW wind – experienced surfers will have a ball with clean conditions. Thursday the 23rd goes huge again: 13ft SW swell in the morning (16-second period, energy 7889) and 12ft in the afternoon. Cross-off winds at 12-16 mph keep it clean but it’s only for the brave.
Friday the 24th brings a nice sweet spot: 8-8ft SW groundswell (14 seconds) with light offshore and cross-off winds, clean and punchy. Excellent for experienced surfers.
We wrap up on Saturday the 25th with a glassy 5-5ft SW swell, 13-second period, light offshore NW wind. Very good, clean, and a perfect way to end the run.
So the real standouts? Lock in Friday 10 July for a glassy, small but perfect beginner session, and Tuesday 14 July for the biggest, most powerful swell of the stretch – that 13ft, 16-second groundswell is a proper event for the experienced. Don’t sleep on Thursday 16 July either – small but glassy and clean, a real gem.
Stay safe out there, and remember: Point Leo’s a reef, so treat it with respect.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon afternoon, light winds from the NW by Thu morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fri 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
979 | 701 | 476 | 395 | 444 | 2409 | 3461 | 3425 | 4849 | 5896 | 8854 | 6762 | 5224 | 3491 | 2232 | 1864 | 1558 | 1344 | 1423 | 947 | 1856 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 6:09PM1.90m | 7:34AM1.88m | 6:55PM1.86m | 8:41AM1.90m | 7:51PM1.82m | 9:53AM1.94m | 8:58PM1.79m | 11:03AM1.99m | 10:14PM1.79m | 12:07PM2.07m | 11:30PM1.83m | 1:04PM2.14m | 00:42AM1.89m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 00:50AM0.22m | 1:16PM0.91m | 1:45AM0.16m | 2:21PM1.00m | 2:47AM0.12m | 3:36PM1.03m | 3:55AM0.09m | 4:52PM1.00m | 5:05AM0.07m | 6:03PM0.89m | 6:11AM0.05m | 7:05PM0.74m | 7:11AM0.07m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | |
5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:16 | — | 5:17 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 14 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 3 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | — | — | WSW 13 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
979 | 701 | 476 | 395 | 444 | — | — | 3425 | 4849 | 5896 | 8854 | 6762 | 5224 | 3491 | 2232 | 1864 | 1558 | 1344 | 1423 | 947 | 1856 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | — | — | — | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | — | SSW 14 | — | — | SW 16 | SSW 16 |
— | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 113 | 322 | — | — | — | 144 | 175 | — | 68 | — | — | 517 | 140 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 14 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 120 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | N 3 | NNW 4 | N 4 | NW 5 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | 5 | 13 | 34 | 47 | 2409 | 3461 | 42 | 110 | 80 | 5720 | 4678 | 3445 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 8 | 35 | 91 | 166 | 472 | 472 | 472 | 262 | 540 | 534 | 66 | 66 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











