Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,375 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Point Leo, and let me tell you, there’s some real potential in the weeks ahead, but you’ve gotta pick your moments. The water’s sitting at 56°F right now, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no nasty surprises when you hit the water.
We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but things kick off proper on Friday, August 21st. The morning is looking tidy with a 4ft swell from the WSW, a 15-second period, and a solid offshore wind. The combined energy is moderate (1078), and the waves should be clean and well-shaped. That’s a solid session for any level.
Friday afternoon is still okay, but the real fire starts on Saturday, August 22nd. The swell jumps to 7ft from the SW on Saturday morning, but the wind goes cross-offshore, so it’s not as clean as we’d like. Saturday afternoon, the swell hits 12ft from the SW – that’s a big one, and the wind is cross-shore with some lumpy chop. That’s expert territory only, and honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
The standout of the whole forecast? Sunday, August 23rd. Hands down. Sunday morning you’ve got a 8ft SW swell (period 14 seconds) with a gentle offshore wind from the NW. The combined energy is strong (2476). That’s excellent surf for experienced surfers. And then Sunday afternoon, it goes glassy – wind is 3 mph from the west, 7ft SW swell, still 14-second period. That’s perfect, clean reef waves. That’s the one you circle on the calendar.
Monday, August 24th and Tuesday, August 25th drop off a bit – around 5ft to 5ft SW swell, clean enough but nothing special. Tuesday afternoon gets messy with a strong cross-shore SW wind, so skip that.
Wednesday, August 26th sees a big 10ft SW swell on the morning, but the wind is cross-off and the period drops to 11 seconds – still clean, but it’s for experts only. That afternoon, the wind turns cross-shore, so it’s lumpy.
Thursday, August 27th is small again, around 3ft to 4ft SW swell, clean but weak.
Now, Friday, August 28th brings a fresh offshore NNW wind and a 7ft SW swell, but here’s the kicker – the period is 18 seconds. That’s a proper long-period groundswell. At a reef setup like Point Leo, that’s going to mean long, clean lines and big gaps between sets. Combined energy is strong (2661). It’s a premium session for experienced surfers, but be ready for the lulls.
Saturday, August 29th and Sunday, August 30th are poor – strong cross-shore winds, lumpy, and not worth paddling out.
Then we get another run of good stuff. Monday, August 31st and Tuesday, September 1st both have excellent morning sessions. Monday morning has a 5ft SW swell (14 seconds) with a gentle offshore NW wind – clean and fun. Combined energy is moderate (1358). Tuesday morning brings a 7ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a moderate offshore WNW wind – that’s another strong-energy standout (2230). Both are excellent for experienced surfers.
Wednesday, September 2nd is also top-notch: 7ft SW swell, 16-second period, offshore NNW wind, combined energy 2325. Clean and powerful.
The rest of the first week of September drops off – Thursday, September 3rd is small and windy, but Friday, September 4th and Saturday, September 5th have some promise. Friday, September 4th morning has a 4ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a gentle offshore wind – combined energy 1994. Clean and fun. Saturday, September 5th morning has a big 8ft SW swell, 17-second period, and a strong offshore wind – combined energy 4434. That’s massive, but wind is strong, so paddling in will be tough. That’s for experts only.
Bottom line: the best windows are Sunday, August 23rd (the standout), Friday, August 28th, and the Monday through Wednesday run from August 31st to September 2nd. The swell is mostly from the SW, which is the optimum direction for Point Leo, so the reef will be working. Just watch for the long-period swells – they make for long clean walls but also long waits between sets.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the ENE on Mon night, fresh winds from the WSW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 17 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 19 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
791 | 606 | 2215 | 2021 | 4334 | 3067 | 1892 | 1785 | 1719 | 874 | 743 | 633 | 905 | 976 | 915 | 1685 | 1619 | 689 | 319 | 401 | 1210 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | off | off | cross-off | cross | off | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:04PM1.90m | 6:08AM1.81m | 5:36PM1.80m | 6:53AM1.71m | 6:09PM1.70m | 7:47AM1.63m | 6:49PM1.61m | 8:56AM1.58m | 7:45PM1.52m | 10:15AM1.59m | 9:08PM1.46m | 11:22AM1.66m | 10:38PM1.48m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:15AM0.75m | 11:37PM0.31m | 11:50AM0.87m | 00:14AM0.40m | 12:29PM0.98m | 00:57AM0.48m | 1:18PM1.08m | 1:49AM0.56m | 2:28PM1.15m | 2:54AM0.61m | 4:02PM1.16m | 4:08AM0.63m | 5:24PM1.07m | ||||||||
6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | |
— | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 17 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 19 |
791 | 606 | 2215 | 2021 | — | 3067 | 1892 | 1785 | 1719 | 874 | 743 | 633 | 905 | 976 | 915 | 1685 | 1594 | 689 | 319 | 401 | 1210 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | WSW 7 | — | — | — | SSW 15 | SW 18 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SW 20 | SW 18 | ESE 4 | SW 17 | — | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 9 | SW 15 | SW 22 | SW 14 |
98 | 85 | — | — | — | 123 | 522 | 353 | 259 | 22 | 15 | 50 | 3 | 281 | — | 15 | 80 | 103 | 106 | 166 | 548 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | — | — | — | — | S 18 | SW 16 | S 8 | SSW 7 | SSW 20 |
97 | 460 | — | — | — | — | 62 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 127 | 30 | 10 | 75 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 7 | WSW 7 | WNW 4 | SW 11 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 3 | NE 3 | NNW 3 | W 3 | WSW 8 | SW 10 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — |
92 | 135 | 20 | 1403 | 4334 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 587 | 1156 | 1619 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 4 | 61 | 66 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 78 | 66 | 66 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











