
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 3,684 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s run through what’s coming up for Point Leo.
Right now, the surf is building with a solid SW groundswell carrying a lot of energy. The water temp is 56°, which is pretty average for this time of year.
The real standout is Friday 17 July. We’ve got a clean 7ft SW swell with a long 16-second period, and the combined energy is strong at 2281. Friday morning the wind is a light cross-off from the N, so the waves will be clean and well-shaped. Friday afternoon goes glassy with a light W breeze – that’s as good as it gets. This is a reef break and it’s fairly consistent, so expect a few others in the water, but it’s worth it.
Saturday 18 July is still very good, with 6ft to 5ft SW swell, period dropping to 14-13 seconds, and glassy conditions in the afternoon. Energy drops to moderate (1154 morning, 880 afternoon), but it’s clean and fun.
Sunday 19 July the swell backs off to 3ft, period 13-12 seconds, with light offshore and cross-off winds. The waves will be smaller and cleaner, good for a longboard or a beginner session.
Monday 20 July morning is a write-off – 25 km/h cross-off winds and a messy 4ft SW swell with a long 16-second period (energy 631). The long period makes this reef break better, but the wind is chewing it. Afternoon improves with a 20 km/h offshore, but the swell drops to 2ft. It’s rideable but small.
Tuesday 21 July afternoon is the pick of the midweek, with a 5ft SW swell, 13-second period, and a light offshore from the NNW. Energy is moderate at 721, and it’ll be clean. Wednesday 22 July is a mixed bag – morning is blown out with 25 km/h cross-off winds, but the afternoon turns gentle offshore with 4ft SW swell.
Now, Thursday 23 July to Friday 24 July – the swell jumps up to 8ft-10ft SW, but the wind is strong cross-off, 25-35 km/h. This is big, powerful stuff (energy 2370-3717), but it’s going to be messy and hard to paddle into. This is for experienced surfers only, and even then, the wind is a problem.
The next proper standout is Monday 27 July (over a week away). This is a big one – 10ft to 12ft SW swell, 17-second period, and a moderate offshore from the NW. The energy is massive (4951 to 7520). This is expert territory, and the waves will be thick, powerful, and clean. It’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but if it comes together, it’ll be the best of the whole run.
After that, Tuesday 28 July to Wednesday 29 July holds decent 7ft-8ft SW swell with lighter offshore winds, and energy dropping to moderate. Thursday 30 July is another big pulse with 10ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-off, so it’s not as clean.
The last few days of the run (31 July to 1 August) are a write-off. The swell is huge – 15ft-16ft – but the wind is straight onshore and cross-onshore, and the energy is extreme (over 10,000). This is not for paddle surfing. It’s more of a kite-surfing scenario if anything.
Stay safe, keep your eyes on that Monday 27 July window, and enjoy the clean Friday glass-off.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 15°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 13 | SW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2035 | 2241 | 1563 | 1154 | 880 | 494 | 311 | 278 | 197 | 587 | 226 | 367 | 437 | 721 | 563 | 373 | 400 | 1338 | 1806 | 2511 | 3684 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | off | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:53PM2.19m | 1:47AM1.95m | 2:38PM2.22m | 2:46AM1.99m | 3:20PM2.21m | 3:41AM1.99m | 3:58PM2.18m | 4:31AM1.96m | 4:35PM2.11m | 5:19AM1.91m | 5:09PM2.01m | 6:06AM1.84m | 5:43PM1.90m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:00PM0.58m | 8:06AM0.12m | 8:50PM0.43m | 8:57AM0.22m | 9:37PM0.31m | 9:43AM0.34m | 10:20PM0.25m | 10:27AM0.49m | 11:01PM0.24m | 11:09AM0.63m | 11:41PM0.27m | 11:50AM0.77m | 00:20AM0.32m | ||||||||
7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | |
— | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 14 | — | SW 16 |
2035 | 2241 | 1563 | 1154 | 880 | 494 | 311 | 278 | 167 | 587 | 226 | 367 | 437 | 721 | 563 | 373 | 400 | 12 | 564 | — | 3182 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 9 | S 10 | — | — | E 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — |
246 | 140 | 80 | — | — | — | 16 | 60 | 197 | 19 | 119 | 80 | 2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | W 22 | WSW 20 | WSW 20 | SSW 10 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 9 | 39 | 75 | 20 | 25 | 22 | 21 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 2 | NW 3 | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | WSW 13 | SW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 16 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 5 | — | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1338 | 1806 | 2511 | 3684 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 78 | 66 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










