Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 18 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,563 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 18 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 17) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here again, looking at the same swell window. We’ve got Point Leo as the only show in town, and the start is a bit of a bust.
Tuesday the 15th sees a nasty 12ft SW swell with a howling cross-shore wind. Total mess. Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off too—big, choppy, and crossed-up. Don’t even think about it.
Things clean up on Friday the 18th. The wind swings offshore out of the NW, and the swell drops to a much nicer 6ft. That’s still a solid size with plenty of energy, and a 14-second period means it’s groundswell with power and good shape. It’ll be clean and lined-up, but best left to the experienced crew. Water temp is 57°, a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.
Your best early window is Friday morning the 18th and Friday afternoon the 18th. Clean 6ft SW swell with offshore wind. The wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That’s your call. We get another clean day Saturday the 19th, though the morning has a fresh offshore. Saturday afternoon is nice and clean with a light breeze.
Sunday the 20th drops right off to small, weak surf. Then there’s a quiet stretch through Monday and Tuesday where the wind or swell is all wrong.
The next real standout is Wednesday the 23rd afternoon. The wind is light out of the north, the swell is a clean 5ft from the SW with a 14-second period. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This one’s more user-friendly than the earlier swell, so a bit more accessible for a range of surfers.
After that, the swell fades but stays clean through the 24th and 25th with light winds. It’ll be small and fun.
Now, looking a week and a half out, a big pulse of long-period SW swell shows up. Sunday the 27th afternoon is the one to circle on your calendar. The wind is light and cross-off, with a solid 8ft SW swell and a 16-second period. The energy is massive. Wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." At that size, it’s experts only. The long period will make it a freight train down the reef. It’s a ways out, so treat it as promising but not locked in.
The final days of September go bad again with strong onshore wind. So, in short: wait until Friday the 18th for your first good session. The big one to watch is Sunday the 27th afternoon, if it holds.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Thu afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Sun morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sun morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4595 | 4563 | 3695 | 3436 | 2821 | 1855 | 1485 | 1595 | 1251 | 865 | 1374 | 1144 | 1147 | 540 | 280 | 386 | 2029 | 1204 | 1271 | 2945 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 3:01AM2.13m | 2:54PM2.02m | 3:39AM2.11m | 3:27PM1.98m | 4:15AM2.05m | 3:58PM1.93m | 4:50AM1.96m | 4:29PM1.85m | 5:27AM1.85m | 5:00PM1.76m | 6:08AM1.75m | 5:34PM1.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:37PM0.16m | 9:01AM0.52m | 9:13PM0.14m | 9:37AM0.57m | 9:47PM0.17m | 10:11AM0.64m | 10:21PM0.24m | 10:43AM0.73m | 10:55PM0.33m | 11:17AM0.83m | 11:31PM0.43m | 11:54AM0.93m | 00:12AM0.53m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 15 |
| kJ | — | 76 | 3695 | 3436 | 2821 | 1855 | 1485 | 1595 | 1251 | 865 | 1374 | 1144 | 1147 | 540 | 212 | 386 | 1447 | 1204 | 1271 | 2945 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | SW 18 | SW 16 | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 19 | SW 15 | — | — | SSW 6 | — | SSW 15 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 58 | 528 | 643 | — | — | 15 | 36 | 280 | — | — | 62 | — | 845 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | 50 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | — | — | SSW 5 | SW 5 | WSW 6 | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | N 3 | NNW 4 | WSW 8 | WSW 12 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 4595 | 4563 | 2483 | — | — | 34 | 42 | 96 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 302 | 2029 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 817 | 273 | 135 | 10 | 10 | 61 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 86 | 78 | 53 | 135 | 10 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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