Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. This is a look at Point Leo out on the Mornington Peninsula, a classic reef set-up that loves a good SW groundswell. Water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

Right now, things are a bit slow. Tuesday's got some small 5ft to 5ft swell from the SW, but the wind is a messy cross-off from the NNW. It's clean, but the energy is just moderate (931) and the surf forecast is a bit marginal. Not really worth paddling out for the effort.

Wednesday looks grim. That NW wind is cranking at 19 mph, and while it's offshore, it's also blowing out any chance of a decent wave. The swell is dropping to 4ft, and the energy is fading fast (501). Thursday is a whole different story. The swell jumps up to 10ft from the SW, but the wind is a howling cross-off, 22 mph in the morning and 25 mph in the afternoon. That's a lot of juice (5532 in the morning) but it's going to be a battle. For the experienced crew, there might be some big, raw walls, but for most of us, it's going to be a blowy mess.

The real standout of this whole run is Friday the 24th. Overnight, the swell builds to 12ft from the SW with a long 15-second period, and the energy is cranking - we're talking 11101. The wind is a fresh 19 mph from the WNW, which is cross-off, keeping the waves clean. This is a big, powerful, long-period groundswell. For a reef like Point Leo, that's the recipe for some serious, grinding lines. It's big. Over 8ft, so this is for the experienced crew only. Beginners, stay on the beach for this one.

Saturday the 25th the swell is still up, 8ft to 10ft, but the energy is dropping and the wind is still fresh. It's not the same quality as Friday.

We get a bit of a breather on Sunday the 26th. The swell drops to 6ft, the wind swings to a light offshore from the WNW at 12 mph, and the energy is moderate (798). The report says "expect very good surf conditions." That's a clean, fun, and much more manageable day. Monday the 27th looks similar, with 7ft swell and a 16 mph offshore, though the energy is picking back up a bit.

Then we get another big pulse on Tuesday the 28th. Swell is a solid 13ft from the SW, with a very long 16-second period. The energy is through the roof (7637). But the wind is a gentle cross from the SSW, with a slight cross-chop. It's big, powerful, and a little bumpy. Again, expert territory only.

The week after that, from the 29th of July into early August, the size drops off significantly. The wind is lighter and glassy at times, especially on the morning of Saturday the 1st of August with 4ft swell and glassy conditions. That's a nice, small, clean day for a longboard. But the real story is that first week of August, the 2nd and 3rd look pretty poor with tiny, weak swell and onshore winds. The energy is low (245). The 4th and 5th start to build again, with a 7ft swell from the SW and a 19-second period on the 4th, but it's a long way out and less certain.

So, to sum it up: Friday the 24th of July is the absolute standout. It's a big, powerful, long-period SW groundswell with clean conditions. It's for experts only, but it's going to be epic. The Sunday the 26th before that is your best bet for a more user-friendly, clean, fun session. The Saturday the 1st of August is a nice glassy day for the smaller gear.

Rusty.

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