Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 09 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.6° C
0.3° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 12 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 13s period, WSW swell with 7,164 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.5m 13s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Thu 9th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 16s
Best Surf 1AM (Fri 10th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 16s
Most Powerful 4PM (Sun 12th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


G’day, I’m Rusty. Alright, we’ve got a long run ahead for Point Leo, so let’s get into it. The week starts off with a bit of swell, but the real standout action is a fair way out, so keep your eyes peeled.

The first decent surf rolls in from Thursday, July 9th. The morning’s a bit cloudy with a 5ft SW swell, period a solid 16 seconds, and the wind’s a light NNE cross-off at 3 mph. That’s clean, and the combined energy is pumping at 1123—moderate but punchy. Thursday afternoon gets even better: glassy conditions with the wind shifting ESE at 3 mph, and the swell drops to 4ft SW, still a long 15-second period. The water temp’s about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Point Leo is a reef break, fairly consistent, and suited to beginners—this is a good one to get wet on.

Friday the 10th keeps it going. Clear skies, morning sees a 5ft SW swell, 15-second period, and a N cross-off at 9 mph. The energy’s up to 1209. Afternoon’s similar with a NNW cross-off at 6 mph, 5ft SW swell, and clean conditions. Solid combo.

But then we hit a rough patch. Saturday the 11th is a write-off with strong N winds over 25 mph, making for poor surf despite the clean look. The swell drops to 4ft SW, and it’s just not worth it. Sunday the 12th gets big—12ft to 15ft SW swells—but the wind is howling from the NW at 28 mph, and the energy is massive (4232 to 6235). That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s marginal. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th stay big (8ft to 12ft SW) with strong offshore winds, but the surf quality is questionable. Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th is a total loss with onshore winds from the SSE and ESE, lumpy and choppy conditions. A proper gap of several days with no recommendations.

The next real chance comes Saturday, July 18th. Morning has a 7ft SW swell, 14-second period, and a light N cross-off at 6 mph. The energy is 1873, and conditions are clean. Afternoon’s even better: 6ft SW swell, 3 mph N cross-off, glassy. This is excellent for experienced surfers—crowds can be around sometimes, but it’s worth it.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are poor again with stronger winds and small swell. But then Tuesday the 21st sees a 8ft to 8ft WSW swell, 15-second period, and light to moderate cross-off winds. The energy is moderate (2381 to 2293), and it’s clean. Good for a session.

Now, the real standout is Thursday, July 23rd. The morning has a 10ft SW swell, 17-second period, and a moderate offshore NW wind at 12 mph. The energy is 4922—strong. Then Thursday afternoon is the best of the whole run: 12ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a light NNW cross-off at 9 mph. The combined energy hits 10087—that’s very strong. This is exceptional for expert surfers only; the size and power are serious. Clean conditions. Keep this one circled, but it’s long-range, so a bit less certain.

Friday the 24th is a step down—8ft SW swell, but cross-on light wind, marginal.

So, the only true standout is Thursday the 23rd afternoon at Point Leo. It’s a reef, so that long-period groundswell will line up nicely. Get on it if you’re experienced.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, strong winds from the N by Sat afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sun morning, moderate winds from the SW by Tue afternoon).

Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
4
2
3
1
0
0
1
2
4
3
2
2
2
3
7
0
1
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.2
SW
14
1.1
SW
14
1
SW
14
1.7
WSW
12
3.5
WSW
14
4.5
WSW
13
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
14
3.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
16
3
SW
16
2.5
SW
15
2.3
SW
15
1.9
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1041
757
1347
1171
993
614
476
395
782
4495
7164
4070
3561
2953
4747
5714
5896
4218
2982
2278
1443
Wind (km/h)
10
NNE
5
E
10
NNE
15
N
10
N
25
N
40
N
45
N
40
WNW
50
WNW
35
W
35
NW
45
NW
45
NW
35
WNW
30
W
25
WSW
25
S
20
SE
10
SE
15
ESE
Wind State
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
High Tide
5:30PM1.94m
6:34AM1.85m
6:09PM1.90m
7:34AM1.88m
6:55PM1.86m
8:41AM1.90m
7:51PM1.82m
9:53AM1.94m
8:58PM1.79m
11:03AM1.99m
10:14PM1.79m
12:07PM2.07m
11:30PM1.83m
Low Tide
11:30AM0.70m
00:04AM0.30m
12:19PM0.80m
00:50AM0.22m
1:16PM0.91m
1:45AM0.16m
2:21PM1.00m
2:47AM0.12m
3:36PM1.03m
3:55AM0.09m
4:52PM1.00m
5:05AM0.07m
6:03PM0.89m
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
mod rain
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:33
7:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:13
5:13
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
 mm
8
3
1
1
5
2
2
4
Temp °C
9
11
11
11
14
11
13
13
10
12
13
13
13
14
12
11
12
11
10
11
9
Feels °C
7
9
8
7
11
6
4
4
0
3
6
5
4
5
4
4
6
4
5
8
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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