
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 10,941 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 23s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days for Point Leo. It's a bit of a slow burner, but there are some moments that are gonna make it worth the wait.
The first real chance is Monday, July 27th. The morning shows a 4ft SW swell, but it's fighting a 12 mph cross-offshore wind. The swell energy is moderate at 528, but it's a marginal session. The afternoon is worse, with the onshore wind kicking in, so Monday is a no-go.
We're skipping Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Tuesday is a big storm swell with a 28 mph cross-offshore, and by Wednesday we're looking at a massive 15ft to 13ft SW swell. The energy is insane, hitting 10241, and the wind is a near-gale cross-shore. That's not for surfing; that's for the kite surfers to have a field day. Thursday is still big and lumpy from the storm.
Now, Friday, July 31st is where we start to see the light. The morning brings a nice 5ft SW swell with a 6 mph offshore wind from the WNW. The energy is a moderate 609, and it's clean. The afternoon is the real winner, though. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the SW. The swell is 4ft at 12 seconds from the SW. That's smooth, clean, long-period groundswell. For a reef break like Point Leo, that's as good as it gets. The energy is 547, which is solid, and the conditions are legitimately good. This is the first standout.
Saturday, August 1st keeps the good times rolling. The morning is a 3ft swell from the SW, but with a period of 18 seconds. That's very long period groundswell. It'll be clean and glassy for the afternoon. The afternoon is the best of the entire run, with a 5ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind. The energy is 1698, offering excellent conditions for experienced surfers. This is the second standout.
Sunday, August 2nd is still surfable, but the wind jumps up to 22 mph, making it a rough paddle. The 6ft swell is there, but it's messy. Monday and Tuesday of the following week are a complete write-off again with strong onshore winds.
After another quiet spell, we get a glimmer on Saturday, August 8th. The morning is a 4ft SW swell with a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind. The afternoon is another glassy moment, with a 4ft SW swell at 18 seconds. The energy is 1021, and the conditions are very good. It's a long way out, so treat it as a promise with a pinch of salt, but it looks like a solid end to the run.
The water temperature is sitting at 56°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.
So, to wrap it up: the afternoon of Friday, July 31st and the afternoon of Saturday, August 1st are your clear winners. For the rest of the time, you're either looking at stormy slop, or just waiting for the next clearing. The 8th of August looks promising, but we'll see how that holds up.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NNW on Mon morning, near gales from the WNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
422 | 544 | 809 | 784 | 1460 | 3403 | 10241 | 7146 | 3325 | 1514 | 1210 | 730 | 555 | 478 | 465 | 370 | 1096 | 2714 | 1793 | 1367 | 1155 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:32PM1.54m | 10:57AM1.67m | 9:43PM1.49m | 11:57AM1.74m | 10:58PM1.50m | 12:46PM1.82m | 00:05AM1.54m | 1:26PM1.90m | 1:02AM1.61m | 2:01PM1.96m | 1:51AM1.68m | 2:32PM2.01m | 2:34AM1.76m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:23PM1.16m | 3:38AM0.53m | 4:44PM1.15m | 4:41AM0.52m | 5:56PM1.09m | 5:41AM0.49m | 6:51PM0.98m | 6:33AM0.46m | 7:35PM0.86m | 7:19AM0.43m | 8:12PM0.73m | 8:00AM0.42m | 8:45PM0.61m | ||||||||
7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | |
— | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 |
Temp °C | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
422 | 544 | 809 | 784 | 1460 | 879 | — | 175 | 3325 | 1514 | 1210 | 730 | 555 | 478 | 465 | 338 | 1096 | 2714 | 1793 | 1367 | 1155 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | — | — | SSW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SSW 12 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | SW 24 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 21 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | WSW 19 |
106 | — | — | 53 | 572 | — | — | — | 111 | 138 | 19 | 22 | 45 | 61 | 133 | 370 | 508 | 221 | 151 | 85 | 143 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 15 | — | — | — | S 21 | S 20 | S 19 | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | — | — | — | SSW 15 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23 | — | — | — | 9 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 94 | — | — | — | 78 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | — | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 |
2 | 3 | 19 | 68 | 65 | 3403 | 10241 | 7146 | 2201 | — | 802 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 9 | 11 | 7 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 16 | 77 | 269 | 262 | 472 | 324 | 66 | 61 | 8 | 61 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 69 | 69 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










