Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 15 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
12.7° C
0.1° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 21 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 8,929 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 20 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 18s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 20) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Friday (Aug 21) at 10PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Thu 20th Aug)1.5ft (0.5m) 18s
Best Surf 1PM (Fri 21st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 16s
Most Powerful10PM (Sat 22nd Aug)13ft (4.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, it’s Rusty.

Alright, we’re looking at a 16-day window for Point Leo, and I gotta be straight with ya – it’s a slow burn. The first week’s pretty average, but if you can hang on, the second week kicks into gear with some serious size. There’s a gap with no decent action early on, so don’t rush.

We start with Saturday the 15th. There’s some swell around – 8 ft from the SW – but the wind is cross-onshore from the south at 9 mph, and the water’s chopped up. The combined energy is high at 2748 (moderate-strong), but the quality’s junk. Not worth paddling out.

Sunday the 16th is more of the same: 6 ft SW swell, but easterly cross-onshore wind. Still messy. By Monday the 17th, the swell drops to 5 ft SW, and while the wind goes onshore out of the SE on the afternoon, it’s not clean enough to get excited about.

Tuesday the 18th is small and weak – 4 ft SW swell, cross-shore wind, combined energy down to 959 (weak). Wednesday the 19th is a write-off: tiny 2-3 ft SW swell, clean cross-offshore wind, but the combined energy is only 316-234 (weak). No juice.

Thursday the 20th throws a change – offshore NW wind at 16 mph, 2 ft SW swell, but a very long period of 18 seconds. Combined energy is still weak at 284, but it’s clean. It’s small, but the conditions are nice for a longboard.

Now, the standout. Friday the 21st. Morning brings 4 ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds, combined energy of 1304 (moderate), and a clean moderate offshore from the NW. This is the best call in the first week – decent shape, clean line-up, and Point Leo is a reef that loves that long-period SW swell. Crowds are possible here (“sometimes”), so you might have a few others with the same idea. The water temp is 55°, about normal for this time of year.

Then it gets heavy. Saturday the 22nd, a big pulse hits: 13-15 ft SW swell, but the wind is a screaming 28 mph cross-offshore. Combined energy jumps to 4279-7811 (very strong). This is expert-only territory – the wind will make it a battle, and anything over 8 ft at this spot is for skilled surfers only. Not for the faint-hearted.

Sunday the 23rd backs off a bit – 12 ft SW swell – but the offshore wind is fresh at 19-22 mph NW. Still big, still clean, but that’s a big paddle. Monday the 24th has 10 ft SW swell, but cross-onshore winds make it lumpy and poor.

By Tuesday the 25th, the swell is still 10 ft SW, but the wind goes cross-shore at a gentle 9 mph, giving it some order. Combined energy is 6667 (very strong). This could be manageable for experienced crew, but the wind direction isn’t perfect.

Wednesday the 26th drops back to 7 ft SSW swell, light cross-onshore wind. Cleaner, but not a standout.

Another standout, later in the run. Friday the 28th afternoon. Clear skies, 5 ft SW swell at 16 seconds, combined energy 1230 (moderate), and a light cross-offshore wind from the NNW. Glassy conditions are close – the morning of Thursday the 27th has clean 3 ft SW swell with glassy NNE wind, but the energy is weak (628). The real gem is the afternoon of the 28th: clean, 5 ft, good period, and it’s a reef break that will handle that groundswell beautifully. Crowds possible.

Saturday the 29th is small and poor. Sunday the 30th morning serves up 2 ft SW swell with an incredible 21-second period, combined energy 758 (weak), but clean offshore wind. That’s a very long-period groundswell – perfect for a reef like Point Leo, though the size is tiny.

Overall, the best windows are the morning of Friday the 21st for a solid, clean session, and the afternoon of Friday the 28th for a clean, fun size. The big days around 22-25 August are for experts only and will be raw.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNE on Wed afternoon, calm by Thu night).

Sat
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
0
2
1
0
1
0
0
2
2
2
3
3
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
SW
15
2.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.2
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1
SW
15
0.9
SW
14
0.7
SW
15
0.6
SW
15
0.5
SW
18
0.6
SW
17
0.8
WSW
13
1.2
SW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.6
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2372
1736
1238
1048
911
885
1367
1155
597
621
465
305
232
171
157
186
215
729
846
1262
Wind (km/h)
15
S
15
ESE
10
E
10
S
15
E
15
ENE
15
SE
20
ENE
15
NE
15
ESE
15
NE
25
NNE
30
N
30
NNW
25
NW
5
WNW
5
NE
20
NW
25
NNW
40
W
Wind State
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
glassy
off
off
cross-off
High Tide
1:43AM1.98m
2:13PM2.13m
2:37AM2.04m
2:51PM2.14m
3:24AM2.06m
3:27PM2.12m
4:08AM2.04m
4:01PM2.07m
4:48AM1.99m
4:33PM1.99m
5:28AM1.90m
5:04PM1.90m
Low Tide
7:42PM0.47m
7:55AM0.29m
8:28PM0.31m
8:41AM0.35m
9:10PM0.21m
9:24AM0.43m
9:49PM0.16m
10:03AM0.53m
10:25PM0.18m
10:39AM0.64m
11:01PM0.23m
11:15AM0.75m
11:37PM0.31m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
heavy rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:05
7:03
7:01
7:01
7:00
6:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:42
5:43
5:44
5:45
5:45
5:45
5:46
 mm
2
2
11
Temp °C
13
12
11
13
12
13
16
13
16
17
16
16
15
14
13
14
12
13
16
12
Feels °C
9
8
9
11
9
11
13
10
13
13
13
10
9
8
9
11
10
8
10
4
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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