
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 15s period, SW swell with 2,449 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.4m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 2.4m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.4m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s cooking for Point Leo over the next couple of weeks.
We’ve got a solid run of groundswell coming in from the southwest, and for a reef break that handles a SW swell really well, this is a promising outlook. The water temp is sitting right on 57°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The action kicks off on Thursday the 16th. It’s a big day for experienced surfers only, with a solid 8ft SW groundswell. The energy is pumping hard (2562), and with a 15-second period, these are proper, long lines. The morning looks clean with a light cross-off breeze, but it gets a bit messy in the afternoon as the wind swings cross-shore.
Friday the 17th is the standout of the first week. The swell drops slightly to 7ft from the SW, but the period stretches to 16 seconds, making for some exceptionally long, powerful waves. The morning is clean with a light cross-off, but the afternoon is where it’s at: glassy conditions with zero wind. That’s as good as it gets for a point reef like this.
Saturday the 18th is still a good day, with the swell easing to 6ft in the morning and 5ft in the afternoon. The morning is clean, and the afternoon goes glassy again. The energy is dropping (1154 to 909), but it’s still a fun, manageable size for a good crew.
From Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 23rd, the swell drops off significantly. It’s a bit of a lull, with waves in the 3ft to 4ft range. The winds are mostly offshore or clean, so it’s not blown out, but the energy is weak (279 to 759). It’s a good time for beginners to get some practice on the smaller days, but nothing to get too excited about.
Then we get a second pulse. Thursday the 23rd afternoon sees the swell jump back up to 7ft, and it’s a fresh offshore wind, keeping things clean. The real second standout is Friday the 24th morning. The swell is 8ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the energy is back up (2148). The wind is a fresh offshore, so expect some hollow, powerful waves. It’s a big day for the experienced crew.
The rest of the month into the start of August stays active. We see another big pulse around Monday the 28th, with 8ft to 10ft SW swell, but the wind is strong and can make paddling out a real mission. The end of the period on the 31st pushes up to 12ft with a 16-second period and massive energy (6049), but the wind is sloppy and cross-onshore, so it’s not the one to aim for.
Overall, the best windows are Friday the 17th afternoon for the glassy, long-period perfection, and the Friday the 24th morning for the powerful, offshore conditions. Get on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2562 | 2372 | 2038 | 2035 | 2241 | 1563 | 1154 | 880 | 563 | 358 | 278 | 197 | 587 | 266 | 305 | 253 | 424 | 711 | 390 | 414 | 513 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | off | off | off | off | off | off |
High Tide | 1:04PM2.14m | 00:42AM1.89m | 1:53PM2.19m | 1:47AM1.95m | 2:38PM2.22m | 2:46AM1.99m | 3:20PM2.21m | 3:41AM1.99m | 3:58PM2.18m | 4:31AM1.96m | 4:35PM2.11m | 5:19AM1.91m | 5:09PM2.01m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:05PM0.74m | 7:11AM0.07m | 8:00PM0.58m | 8:06AM0.12m | 8:50PM0.43m | 8:57AM0.22m | 9:37PM0.31m | 9:43AM0.34m | 10:20PM0.25m | 10:27AM0.49m | 11:01PM0.24m | 11:09AM0.63m | 11:41PM0.27m | ||||||||
7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | |
— | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 |
2562 | 2372 | 2038 | 2035 | 2241 | 1563 | 1154 | 880 | 563 | 358 | 278 | 169 | 587 | 266 | 305 | 253 | 424 | 711 | 390 | 414 | 513 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | — | SSW 12 | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | WSW 12 | SSW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | — | — | E 10 | E 10 |
— | — | — | 246 | 140 | 42 | — | 29 | — | 16 | 60 | 197 | 19 | 119 | 21 | 13 | 129 | — | — | 2 | 2 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 22 | WSW 20 | WSW 20 | SSW 10 | SSW 16 | SSW 10 | SE 10 | SW 18 | S 17 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 39 | 75 | 22 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 5 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 3 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










