
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 28 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 31 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 12s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 12,978 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 24s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 5.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Point Leo over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with some serious size and power early on, but you’ll need to pick your windows carefully for clean conditions. The water temp is sitting around 55.8°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.
We kick off Tuesday the 28th of July with a solid 5.2ft SW groundswell, period a nice 13 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate at 837. Problem is, we’ve got a strong NNW breeze at 28 mph making it cross-offshore – the surf will be clean but that wind strength means it’s a real battle to paddle into anything. Definitely not a beginner’s day. Tuesday afternoon the swell bumps up to 5.9ft from the SW with a 15-second period and the energy jumps to 2013, now strong. The wind turns NW and offshore at 28 mph, so it’s clean and lined up, but again, that paddle-out is going to sort the men from the boys.
Wednesday the 29th is a write-off for surfing – we’ve got a huge 14.8ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, energy screaming at 10311, but it’s blowing a near-gale from the WSW at 31 mph. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The afternoon stays big at 13.1ft with messy cross-shore wind and cross-chop. Give it a miss.
Thursday the 30th the swell drops to a more manageable 7.5ft, still SW and 13 seconds, energy at 3345 – strong. Wind is W at 16 mph, cross-offshore, so the surf is clean but the tide might mess with the banks. It’s marginal, but for an experienced surfer there’s something to work with. Friday the 31st looks better: the swell eases to 4.9ft, 12-second period, with a light W breeze at 6 mph creating clean cross-off conditions. Combined energy is 678, still moderate. This is a good window for a solid session – not too big, not too wild.
Saturday the 1st of August has a tricky one. Morning sees tiny 2.6ft SW swell but with an 18-second period – very long groundswell. Energy is only 853, moderate. Wind is light from the N, cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but that long period might make it wall up and close out at the beach. The afternoon picks up to 6.2ft with the same long period, energy jumps to 2473, and the wind stays moderate – still clean, but the swell direction and period combo might suit the reef better.
Sunday the 2nd of August: morning has 5.9ft SW swell, 16-second period, fresh NW offshore wind at 22 mph. Energy is strong at 1922. The offshore breeze will hold the waves open, but the long period could make it a bit fast on the take-off. Afternoon holds similar size and energy with a cross-off wind.
Now, let’s fast-forward. Monday the 3rd of August is not worth it – onshore wind and messy. Tuesday the 4th is cross-onshore and choppy. Wednesday the 5th of August is a standout for the second week. Morning brings 3.9ft SW swell, 14-second period, light N wind at 6 mph – clean and lined up. Energy is 795, moderate. Afternoon gets even better: glassy conditions with a 3 mph SE breeze, 3.9ft swell, same period, and energy of 990. This is your pick for a smooth, fun session on the reef.
Thursday the 6th of August holds similar quality: 4.3ft SW swell, 16-second period, light N wind in the morning, and glassy in the afternoon with a 3 mph NW breeze. Energy stays moderate. Then we lose the surf for a few days – Friday the 7th is tiny and weak, Saturday the 8th has a spike in size but with strong winds, and Sunday the 9th through Monday the 10th are blown out or weak.
The best of the rest comes on Tuesday the 11th of August: 5.2ft from the WSW, 13-second period, gentle WNW breeze at 9 mph – clean and fun. Energy is moderate at 799. Wednesday the 12th of August brings a bigger pulse – 9.8ft WSW, 13 seconds, with fresh northerly wind – that’s a lot of power (3614 energy), but it’s clean and for experienced surfers only. The afternoon sees 11.5ft SW, 14-second period, energy 9596 – very strong, but again, expert territory with clean conditions.
If I had to pick the best on offer, it’s Wednesday the 5th of August – that glassy afternoon session with 3.9ft of SW swell will be the most inviting for a relaxed, clean surf. For the more experienced, Friday the 31st of July is also a solid call with clean 4.9ft waves and light wind.
Just a heads up: Point Leo is a reef break suited to beginners, but when the swell gets over
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue night, light winds from the WSW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sun morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
784 | 1441 | 3403 | 10311 | 7674 | 3773 | 1723 | 1395 | 854 | 624 | 519 | 457 | 432 | 2293 | 3273 | 1771 | 1806 | 2027 | 3181 | 2261 | 1306 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:57AM1.67m | 9:43PM1.49m | 11:57AM1.74m | 10:58PM1.50m | 12:46PM1.82m | 00:05AM1.54m | 1:26PM1.90m | 1:02AM1.61m | 2:01PM1.96m | 1:51AM1.68m | 2:32PM2.01m | 2:34AM1.76m | 3:01PM2.03m | 3:15AM1.84m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:44PM1.15m | 4:41AM0.52m | 5:56PM1.09m | 5:41AM0.49m | 6:51PM0.98m | 6:33AM0.46m | 7:35PM0.86m | 7:19AM0.43m | 8:12PM0.73m | 8:00AM0.42m | 8:45PM0.61m | 8:38AM0.43m | 9:16PM0.49m | ||||||||
7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | |
— | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | |
mm | — | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 5 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | SSW 15 | SSW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
784 | 1441 | 1972 | — | 128 | 152 | 1723 | 1395 | 854 | 624 | 519 | 457 | 363 | 2293 | 3273 | 1771 | 1806 | 2027 | 3181 | 2261 | 1306 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 8 | SW 24 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 18 | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | WSW 18 | — | — | — |
53 | 572 | — | — | — | — | — | 20 | 22 | 45 | 61 | 133 | 432 | 180 | 360 | 151 | 140 | 211 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 21 | S 20 | S 19 | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | SSW 14 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 8 | 7 | 58 | — | — | — | — | 82 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | WNW 4 | SW 5 | SSW 7 | — | ESE 4 |
85 | 54 | 3403 | 10311 | 7674 | 3773 | 1622 | 878 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 34 | 36 | 51 | 153 | — | 32 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 269 | 494 | 390 | 493 | 300 | 78 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 52 | 66 | 457 | 66 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










