
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 10 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 9,335 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 10 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 17s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but it’s a bit of a slow burner. The first few days are a write-off, but there is some serious quality lurking further out. Let’s get into it.
Don’t even bother paddling out for the first few days. Wednesday the 9th is a total mess, with a big 10ft SW groundswell packing a massive 7174 units of energy, but it’s being torn apart by a fresh cross-shore wind. Thursday the 10th is cleaner but still lumpy and not worth the effort for the 10ft swell. It’s only from Friday the 11th that things start to look interesting.
The real standout in this whole forecast is Point Leo (reef) on Friday morning, the 11th of September. The wind drops out completely, leaving it glassy. You’re looking at a solid 7ft swell from the southwest, with a very long 15-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the reef setup will handle it beautifully. The combined energy is a moderate 1760 units, so it’s got plenty of push. This is an excellent one for experienced surfers, but beginners might find the 7ft a bit too much. It’s a fairly consistent spot, and the crowds are a possibility, but for conditions like this, it’s worth the gamble.
Saturday the 12th is another top-tier day. The morning sees a clean 7ft SW swell with a cross-offshore breeze. The afternoon turns glassy again with a 7ft swell. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so it’s nothing unusual, but don’t expect a tropical bath.
We’ve got a bit of a lull through Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th as the swell drops off, but it picks up again in a big way. Keep an eye on Wednesday the 16th. The morning brings a 8ft SW groundswell with a long 17-second period and a gentle offshore wind. The energy is strong at 5233 units. This is a top-shelf morning for experienced surfers.
The real monster looks like it’s forming for the following week. Wednesday the 23rd of September is shaping up to be exceptional. The morning sees a 12ft SW groundswell with a 18-second period and a moderate offshore wind. The combined energy is a massive 7176 units. This is expert-level territory, but if you’ve got the skill, the reef at Point Leo will be absolutely firing. It’s a long way out, so it’s a promising but less certain call, but if it lines up, it’ll be the session of the window.
So, to sum it up: the first few days are a dog. Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th are your best early bets. The absolute standout, if it holds, is Wednesday the 23rd. Get ready for some big ones.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Wed morning, calm by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sat morning, fresh winds from the N by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
5022 | 7778 | 7836 | 5167 | 4016 | 2534 | 1881 | 2229 | 2829 | 2266 | 1857 | 1581 | 1020 | 788 | 543 | 357 | 342 | 1037 | 2660 | 2824 | 2073 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | glassy | cross-on | glassy | glassy | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 8:39PM1.69m | 10:21AM1.77m | 10:13PM1.70m | 11:25AM1.83m | 11:35PM1.80m | 12:18PM1.90m | 00:41AM1.92m | 1:03PM1.96m | 1:34AM2.03m | 1:42PM2.01m | 2:20AM2.11m | 2:19PM2.03m | 3:01AM2.13m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:56PM0.97m | 3:28AM0.44m | 4:22PM0.88m | 4:47AM0.48m | 5:34PM0.71m | 5:56AM0.48m | 6:30PM0.53m | 6:53AM0.46m | 7:17PM0.36m | 7:41AM0.46m | 7:58PM0.23m | 8:23AM0.48m | 8:37PM0.16m | ||||||||
6:31 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | |
— | 6:04 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 |
1860 | 7778 | 7836 | 5167 | 4016 | 2534 | 1881 | 2229 | 2829 | 2266 | 1857 | 1581 | 1020 | 788 | 543 | 357 | 342 | 111 | 2660 | 2824 | 2073 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SSW 19 | SSW 19 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | — | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 13 | SW 20 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — |
229 | 611 | 1133 | 650 | 344 | 226 | — | 650 | 512 | 263 | 135 | 164 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 15 | 37 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — |
320 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | SW 9 | SW 12 | SW 13 | — |
5022 | 5133 | 5122 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 6 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 1037 | 1670 | 1693 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 528 | 484 | 66 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 30 | 53 | 16 | 62 | 61 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










