
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 5,167 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty here.
Let’s be honest, the next couple of weeks are going to be a mixed bag at Point Leo. The start of the run has energy, but it’s not doing us any favours. We’ve got a solid SW groundswell pushing through Thursday and Friday, but the wind is hanging onshore and cross-shore, with the energy reading at 5817 and 4164. It’s messy, lumpy, and borderline unsurfable for the average punter, so I’d give those first two days a miss unless you’re desperate for a beating. The water is sitting around 56°F at this time, which is right where we’d expect it to be—nothing crazy.
Saturday the 12th is where it starts to turn. The swell drops a touch to 8ft, but the wind swings around to a light cross-off from the NNE. That’s the clean-up crew arriving. The energy is still respectable at 2723, and the longer 16-second period means the sets are properly lined up. This is the first real session of the window, and for this break, it’s the one to get excited about. Crowds are likely, because it’s a good one.
Sunday the 13th is a write-off. The swell drops and the wind howls from the north at 19 mph, so it’s blown out and weak, with energy dropping to 952. You’d be surfing whitecaps, not waves. Monday the 14th is even worse—the swell crashes down to under 3ft, energy at 336, and it’s not worth getting your board wet.
Then there’s a sneaky little pulse Tuesday the 15th. We get a jump back up to 10ft, but it’s late-period and cross-shore winds mess it up—energy of 3290 in the morning and 5881 in the arvo, but it’s lumpy and raw. Not clean. Not for us.
Now, Wednesday the 16th looks special. The swell is 8ft, the period is 14 seconds, and the wind goes glassy—completely dead. The energy is at 2398. That’s the kind of session where the reef starts to do its thing and your mates get jealous. This is a standout, no doubt. It’s for experienced surfers though—8ft over a reef isn’t beginner territory.
Thursday the 17th is another decent look. The swell settles to 6ft, the wind goes cross-off from the west, and the afternoon is clean. Energy of 1443, and the wave comment is top-notch for a reason. This is a fun, pushy wave for the intermediate crew, and it’s a safe bet.
Friday the 18th brings another 10ft pulse, with a clean offshore in the morning. Energy at 3357. That’s big, grunty, and dredging—expert territory at this size. The afternoon pushes even more energy to 5062 but with an onshore wind, so it gets chopped. If you’re an advanced surfer, hit the morning.
The weekend of the 19th and 20th is a letdown. The swell fades and the north wind picks up hard. Saturday morning sees 6ft but the wind is up to 16 mph cross-off, making it lumpy. Sunday has a bit more size on the morning (7ft) with a clean offshore, energy at 947, but the period is short and it fades fast. Not what we want.
Now, the second week starts rough. Monday the 21st, we have 10ft but it’s onshore and messy, energy at 3880 and 6408—it’s a grinding mess. Tuesday the 22nd has size, but the cross-shore wind is messing with the shape. Not your friend.
The big one for the long range is Saturday the 25th. The forecasting models are calling for a proper event: 10ft swell with an 18-second period—that’s a real groundswell—and a light cross-off in the morning. Energy is cranked at 6168. The wave comment is the best in the whole window. It’s still nine days out, so treat it as promising but not guaranteed. The afternoon session on the 25th is also excellent, with 8ft and glassy conditions, energy at 4826. If that forecast holds, that’s the pick of the trip.
Before that, the 23rd and 24th are overrun by strong winds and messy, onshore swell—completely forgettable.
So, to sum it up: the standout sessions are Wednesday morning the 16th and that potential Saturday morning on the 25th. The early pulse on Saturday the 12th is also a nice little clean-up. Keep the weekend clear for the 25th.
This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNW on Sun night, calm by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
5167 | 3820 | 2688 | 2010 | 2437 | 3077 | 2443 | 1882 | 1500 | 1006 | 927 | 598 | 308 | 212 | 842 | 3113 | 3555 | 2862 | 2293 | 2777 | 2094 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | glassy | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:21AM1.77m | 10:13PM1.70m | 11:25AM1.83m | 11:35PM1.80m | 12:18PM1.90m | 00:41AM1.92m | 1:03PM1.96m | 1:34AM2.03m | 1:42PM2.01m | 2:20AM2.11m | 2:19PM2.03m | 3:01AM2.13m | 2:54PM2.02m | 3:39AM2.11m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:22PM0.88m | 4:47AM0.48m | 5:34PM0.71m | 5:56AM0.48m | 6:30PM0.53m | 6:53AM0.46m | 7:17PM0.36m | 7:41AM0.46m | 7:58PM0.23m | 8:23AM0.48m | 8:37PM0.16m | 9:01AM0.52m | 9:13PM0.14m | ||||||||
6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | |
— | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Feels °C | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
5167 | 3820 | 2688 | 2010 | 2437 | 3077 | 2443 | 1882 | 1500 | 1006 | 927 | 598 | 308 | 212 | 109 | 177 | 3555 | 2862 | 2293 | 2777 | 2094 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | — | SSW 13 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SW 7 | WSW 19 | S 18 | — | — | — | SSW 14 | SSW 16 | — |
650 | 344 | — | 317 | 705 | 434 | 280 | 146 | 92 | 82 | 25 | 22 | 13 | 37 | 6 | — | — | — | 105 | 291 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | S 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | W 4 | WSW 8 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 163 | 842 | 3113 | 2326 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 10 | 300 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 30 | 19 | 62 | 62 | 61 | 592 | 135 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










