Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a slow burn, but there’s some serious potential if you’re patient.

The first real action kicks off on Saturday, 9th August. Don’t get too excited about the morning though—it’s a bit of a mess with a strong cross-shore wind and lumpy conditions. The afternoon cleans up a bit, but the swell is only around 3 feet and the energy is pretty weak. Not the day to go burning the fuel.

Now, Monday, 10th August... that’s when things start to get interesting. The swell builds quickly, hitting 6 feet in the morning with a long 19-second period, and the combined energy is already ramping up (2755). By the afternoon, it’s a solid 10 feet from the SW with a 17-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and it’s got some serious grunt behind it (4939). The wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean. This is a big swell though—over 8 feet—so it’s really only for the experienced crew. Beginners, stay on the beach for this one.

The standout of the whole run, no question, is Thursday, 13th August. You’ve got a 13 foot SW swell first thing in the morning, with a fresh offshore wind from the WNW. That’s a dream combo. The energy is massive (7559) and the period is a solid 16 seconds. The afternoon gets even bigger, with the same 13 foot height but the energy jumps to a whopping 14706. The wind is still cross-off, but it’s a clean, powerful, proper reef-break day. This is the one to circle on the calendar. Point Leo (Mornington Peninsula) is going to be an absolute beast. The water temp is around 55°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The run continues with solid 10 to 12 foot swells through Friday and into Saturday, 15th August. The wind stays light, and the conditions are clean. It’s still big, expert-only territory, but the quality is there. By Sunday, 16th August, the swell drops to a more manageable 6 feet, and we get a lump of glassy conditions in the morning—zero wind, perfect shape. That’s a great window for the more experienced intermediate surfers.

After that, the week of the 17th to the 20th sees a bit of a dip. The swell backs off to 5 to 6 feet, and the wind is mostly light but not ideal. The energy levels drop off, and the conditions are marginal. It’s not a write-off, but it’s not the main event.

Now, look ahead to Friday, 21st August. That’s a promising one, but it’s a week and a half away, so treat it with a bit of caution. The forecast shows an 8 foot SW swell with a 16-second period, and glassy conditions in the morning. Energy is solid (3559). That’s a classic setup for a clean, powerful point break, but it’s still expert territory due to the size. The Saturday after that, 22nd August, has a nice 6 foot SW swell with a moderate offshore wind—clean and fun for the more experienced.

Overall, the window from the 10th to the 16th is the real deal, with the 13th being the absolute best. After that, it’s a bit of a mixed bag, but the 21st looks promising if it holds. Crowds at Point Leo can be a problem, especially on the good days, so get in early. This is a reef break, so the long-period groundswells will line up beautifully, but beginners need to steer clear when it’s over 8 feet.

Rusty out.

Read more