Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Let’s be honest, the next couple of weeks are going to be a mixed bag at Point Leo. The start of the run has energy, but it’s not doing us any favours. We’ve got a solid SW groundswell pushing through Thursday and Friday, but the wind is hanging onshore and cross-shore, with the energy reading at 5817 and 4164. It’s messy, lumpy, and borderline unsurfable for the average punter, so I’d give those first two days a miss unless you’re desperate for a beating. The water is sitting around 56°F at this time, which is right where we’d expect it to be—nothing crazy.

Saturday the 12th is where it starts to turn. The swell drops a touch to 8ft, but the wind swings around to a light cross-off from the NNE. That’s the clean-up crew arriving. The energy is still respectable at 2723, and the longer 16-second period means the sets are properly lined up. This is the first real session of the window, and for this break, it’s the one to get excited about. Crowds are likely, because it’s a good one.

Sunday the 13th is a write-off. The swell drops and the wind howls from the north at 19 mph, so it’s blown out and weak, with energy dropping to 952. You’d be surfing whitecaps, not waves. Monday the 14th is even worse—the swell crashes down to under 3ft, energy at 336, and it’s not worth getting your board wet.

Then there’s a sneaky little pulse Tuesday the 15th. We get a jump back up to 10ft, but it’s late-period and cross-shore winds mess it up—energy of 3290 in the morning and 5881 in the arvo, but it’s lumpy and raw. Not clean. Not for us.

Now, Wednesday the 16th looks special. The swell is 8ft, the period is 14 seconds, and the wind goes glassy—completely dead. The energy is at 2398. That’s the kind of session where the reef starts to do its thing and your mates get jealous. This is a standout, no doubt. It’s for experienced surfers though—8ft over a reef isn’t beginner territory.

Thursday the 17th is another decent look. The swell settles to 6ft, the wind goes cross-off from the west, and the afternoon is clean. Energy of 1443, and the wave comment is top-notch for a reason. This is a fun, pushy wave for the intermediate crew, and it’s a safe bet.

Friday the 18th brings another 10ft pulse, with a clean offshore in the morning. Energy at 3357. That’s big, grunty, and dredging—expert territory at this size. The afternoon pushes even more energy to 5062 but with an onshore wind, so it gets chopped. If you’re an advanced surfer, hit the morning.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th is a letdown. The swell fades and the north wind picks up hard. Saturday morning sees 6ft but the wind is up to 16 mph cross-off, making it lumpy. Sunday has a bit more size on the morning (7ft) with a clean offshore, energy at 947, but the period is short and it fades fast. Not what we want.

Now, the second week starts rough. Monday the 21st, we have 10ft but it’s onshore and messy, energy at 3880 and 6408—it’s a grinding mess. Tuesday the 22nd has size, but the cross-shore wind is messing with the shape. Not your friend.

The big one for the long range is Saturday the 25th. The forecasting models are calling for a proper event: 10ft swell with an 18-second period—that’s a real groundswell—and a light cross-off in the morning. Energy is cranked at 6168. The wave comment is the best in the whole window. It’s still nine days out, so treat it as promising but not guaranteed. The afternoon session on the 25th is also excellent, with 8ft and glassy conditions, energy at 4826. If that forecast holds, that’s the pick of the trip.

Before that, the 23rd and 24th are overrun by strong winds and messy, onshore swell—completely forgettable.

So, to sum it up: the standout sessions are Wednesday morning the 16th and that potential Saturday morning on the 25th. The early pulse on Saturday the 12th is also a nice little clean-up. Keep the weekend clear for the 25th.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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