Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 27 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 12s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 7,146 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 10s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
### Imperial Version
Right then, let's get into it. It's all about Point Leo for this 16-day look, and it's a classic tale of waiting out the rubbish to get to the good stuff. The first week is a total write-off, but there's a proper run of clean swell coming in the second week.
For starters, from July 22nd through to the end of the month, it's grim. We've got a big pulse of SW swell—3.0m to 3.5m—hitting around the 23rd and 24th, with combined energy readings going from 3388 all the way up to 9542. But the wind is howling, right cross-off or onshore, making it a total mess. It'll be lumpy and blown out. Then we get a few days of smaller, weaker swell with poor wind. It’s a frustrating block of days, no two ways about it.
Then there's a glimmer. On Tuesday, July 28th, in the afternoon, things get interesting. We've got a 2.4m SW swell with a very long 16-second period and combined energy of 2723. The wind flips to a light offshore from the WNW, which means the surface will be glassy and clean. This is an experienced surfer's wave at that size, and the reef at The Leo will handle that long-period energy well, offering some proper stand-up barrels. The crowd factor is listed as 'sometimes', so you might not be alone, but it's worth it.
The onshore wind returns for a few days after that, killing the vibe again.
Now, for the real standout. The first weekend of August is where it's at. On Saturday, August 1st, we have a 1.0m to 1.4m SW groundswell with a very long 16 to 17-second period. The wind is light offshore from the NW, making conditions absolutely clean and glassy, with combined energy around 1348. This is the session for everyone. Point Leo is a beginner-friendly reef break, so this will be a dream for all levels. The swell direction is SW, which is exactly what this spot wants.
That quality looks to hold on Sunday, August 2nd, with a 1.6m to 1.8m SW swell and offshore WNW winds in the morning (combined energy 1760), before the wind picks up a bit later in the day.
Water temp is around 56°F, which is normal for this time of year, so you'll need a good wetsuit.
So, the plan is: sit out the first week's wind-fest, then be in the water for the end of July and, without a doubt, the first weekend of August. That's your clean, lined-up window for the Leo.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 386 | 891 | 3388 | 3859 | 7146 | 5813 | 4720 | 3169 | 2824 | 1789 | 1425 | 807 | 881 | 972 | 932 | 1148 | 1778 | 2416 | 2723 | 2012 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:09PM2.01m | 6:06AM1.84m | 5:43PM1.90m | 6:53AM1.77m | 6:17PM1.80m | 7:43AM1.70m | 6:53PM1.70m | 8:41AM1.65m | 7:37PM1.61m | 9:48AM1.64m | 8:32PM1.54m | 10:57AM1.67m | 9:43PM1.49m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:41PM0.27m | 11:50AM0.77m | 00:20AM0.32m | 12:31PM0.90m | 1:00AM0.39m | 1:17PM1.01m | 1:45AM0.46m | 2:12PM1.10m | 2:37AM0.50m | 3:23PM1.16m | 3:38AM0.53m | 4:44PM1.15m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | | | |  |  | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — |
mm | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 11 | — | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 386 | 891 | — | 31 | 149 | 5813 | 3866 | 3169 | 2497 | 1789 | 1193 | 807 | 881 | 972 | 932 | 1148 | 1778 | 2416 | 2723 | 2012 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 17 | WSW 16 | — | SW 15 | — | SSW 15 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 2 | 238 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 26 | — | 36 | — | 318 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | NW 4 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | NW 4 | WNW 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 4 | — |
| kJ | 143 | 652 | 3388 | 3859 | 7146 | 3729 | 4720 | 16 | 2824 | 1144 | 1425 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 66 | 66 | 66 | 455 | 66 | 62 | 454 | 96 | 62 | 66 | 8 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 61 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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