Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming our way for Point Leo.

Right now, the surf is a write-off. We’ve got a solid 10ft SW groundswell with a long 17-second period, but the wind is howling onshore from the ESE at 12 mph, trashing any chance of a decent wave. The ocean is a mess, and the combined swell energy is a whopping 6604 (very strong), but without clean conditions, it’s a no-go for paddling. Sunday morning and afternoon both look poor.

But hang in there. Monday the 6th of July is where it gets interesting. The swell drops to a clean 5ft from the SW (14-second period), and the wind swings NE at 6 mph, going cross-offshore. That means clean lines, with a combined energy of 1029 (moderate). The morning session looks very good. Then Monday afternoon gets even better: glassy conditions with SW wind at 3 mph, swell easing to 4ft but still holding that 14-second period, and the energy at 730. That’s the standout of the first week – Point Leo (Mornington Peninsula) will be clean, lined up, and perfect for a beginner-friendly reef break. Water temp is 57°, which is about normal for this time of year.

Tuesday the 7th is more marginal. Swell sits around 3-5ft, but the wind is tricky – cross and cross-on, with energy moderate to strong (850-1146). Not the best, but if you’re desperate, the early morning might give you a few.

Wednesday the 8th afternoon is a real highlight for experienced surfers. The swell bumps up to 7ft from the SW with an 18-second period, combined energy at 2951 (strong), and glassy conditions with E wind at 3 mph. That’s going to be powerful, clean, and heavy – not for beginners. This is the second standout in the first week.

Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th stay clean with cross-off and glassy winds, swell around 4-5ft, and energy moderate to strong (800-1398). Very good surf, especially Friday afternoon with zero wind and glass.

Then we hit a bit of a gap. Saturday the 11th is marginal with clean but weaker swell (3-4ft, energy 240-525). Sunday the 12th is flat and poor with strong cross-off winds. Monday the 13th brings back some energy (3-6ft, 1011-1462) but with rain and cross-chop. Not great.

From Tuesday the 14th through Thursday the 16th, it’s poor to marginal with onshore and cross-onshore winds, choppy conditions, and moderate to strong energy (1036-4490) but all messy. The big 8ft swell on Thursday the 16th afternoon is only for experts, but even then, the wind is fresh cross-shore at 22 mph, so it’s lumpy.

Friday the 17th improves slightly – offshore WNW wind at 16 mph, swell 5ft from SW, energy 774. Clean but a bit windy. Saturday the 18th is marginal again with light cross-onshore winds.

Now for the long-range: Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th of July look promising but less certain. Sunday morning has a 8ft SW swell with 14-second period, light cross-on wind, energy 2188 – marginal but could be decent if the wind holds. Monday the 20th morning shows a bigger 10ft SW swell (15-second period) with energy 4805, light cross-on wind – excellent on paper, but that’s two weeks out. For now, lock in Monday the 6th afternoon and Wednesday the 8th afternoon as the best bets.

Overall, Point Leo has some real gems in the first week, especially the glassy, clean days. The second week is more hit-and-miss, but don’t write it off yet.

Rusty.

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