Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 23 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 4,766 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 19th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Thu 23rd Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey, it's Rusty, and I've been looking at the charts for our local patch. It's a single-spot forecast, and it's a slow start, but there's a killer day waiting for us if you're keen to wait.
The first decent surf rolls in on the morning of Sunday, July 19th. The swell is a long-period groundswell from the SW, about 4ft, with a period of 13 seconds. That's a solid, clean pulse. The wind is a light cross-off at 6 mph, which will keep the surface smooth. The water temp is around 56°, which is standard for the season. The combined energy is moderate at 419. It's a quiet start, but clean.
The real standout is undeniably Sunday, July 26th. Both the morning and afternoon are looking prime. We'll have a swell dropping from 7ft to 6ft through the day, with a period of 12 seconds. The wind is a gentle offshore from the NW at 9 mph, which will groom those waves into perfect shape. The combined energy is strong at 1125 in the morning, dropping to 800 in the afternoon. This is clean, lined-up surf that's going to be a dream to paddle into. Point Leo is a reef break, and with this southwest swell direction, it'll be handling it perfectly. It's a fairly consistent spot, so you'll get waves, but you might have some company as crowds are sometimes expected.
Before that, we have to get through some average days. Monday, July 20th, the wind picks up. Tuesday, July 21st, the swell builds to 5ft, but the wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off, keeping it marginal. Wednesday, July 22nd, has a strong offshore wind of 22 mph, but the swell is only 4ft, so it's a bit blown out and short period. Thursday, July 23rd, the swell absolutely hammers in at 10ft, but the wind is howling from the WSW at 25-28 mph, making it a total mess. The combined energy is massive (over 5600), but it's all wind and chop. Only kite surfers would be happy.
Friday, July 24th, is also huge, with 10ft SW swell and strong offshore winds, but the wind is so strong, 28 mph, it's a battle to paddle into. Only for the experts.
After that beautiful Sunday the 26th, the window slams shut. Monday, July 27th, the swell drops to 3ft, and by Tuesday, July 28th, the wind is a nasty 28 mph cross-off, making it junk. The rest of the period into the first week of August is a complete write-off, with small pulses ruined by onshore winds and messy conditions. There's a big gap with no worthwhile surf from the 28th of July right through to the end of the forecast on August 3rd.
So, bottom line: the first week is a slow build, but the 26th of July is your day. Don't miss it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the W by Wed morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 8°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 236 | 197 | 587 | 461 | 367 | 799 | 711 | 449 | 480 | 543 | 2124 | 4038 | 3866 | 4766 | 4427 | 4561 | 4370 | 3619 | 2972 | 1687 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 3:41AM1.99m | 3:58PM2.18m | 4:31AM1.96m | 4:35PM2.11m | 5:19AM1.91m | 5:09PM2.01m | 6:06AM1.84m | 5:43PM1.90m | 6:53AM1.77m | 6:17PM1.80m | 7:43AM1.70m | 6:53PM1.70m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:37PM0.31m | 9:43AM0.34m | 10:20PM0.25m | 10:27AM0.49m | 11:01PM0.24m | 11:09AM0.63m | 11:41PM0.27m | 11:50AM0.77m | 00:20AM0.32m | 12:31PM0.90m | 1:00AM0.39m | 1:17PM1.01m | 1:45AM0.46m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  | | | | |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — |
 | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 12 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | — | SSW 18 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
| kJ | 236 | 167 | 587 | 461 | 367 | 799 | 711 | 449 | 480 | 187 | 2124 | — | 31 | 4766 | 4427 | 4561 | 4370 | 3619 | 2972 | 1687 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 18 | SSW 14 | — | E 11 | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 60 | 197 | — | 249 | 32 | 36 | — | 2 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 20 | SSW 10 | S 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 15 | — | — | — | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 75 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 21 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | NW 4 | NW 4 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | — |
| kJ | — | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 543 | 1422 | 4038 | 3866 | 3314 | 16 | 18 | 3074 | 2356 | 1969 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 61 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 455 | 62 | 96 | 96 | 472 | 66 | 61 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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