Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 3 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 7,496 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 3 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.0m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 3.5m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 03) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve got a wild ride ahead at Point Leo. This is a reef break that’s fairly consistent, best with a SW swell, and it's a beginner-friendly spot normally, but the coming days are going to test that. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is a touch warmer than the long-term average, so it’s not a bad trade-off for the chilly air.
The week kicks off with a solid swell pulse, but the wind is going to be a bit of a drama. Wednesday morning has a clean 6 ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds, with a cross-off breeze, but the wave energy is already strong at 1744. The afternoon bumps up to a powerful 8 ft, but that 25 mph cross-off makes it tricky. By Thursday, the swell pumps to 10 ft on the morning and a heavy 12 ft by afternoon, but those winds are howling in the fresh breeze range and it’s a messy cross-off. The combined energy on Thursday afternoon is enormous at 8013 – this is serious power, not for the faint-hearted.
Then, Friday morning is where the magic could happen. We’ve got an 12 ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a true offshore breeze from the NNW at 15 mph. The break will be clean, the sets will be long, and the energy is intense at 5414. This is the standout for the week, but it’s big – over 8 ft – so it’s strictly for experienced surfers. The offshore wind holds through the afternoon with a 10 ft swell, still clean, still powerful.
Friday is the best on offer here. Saturday takes a messy turn with a gale-force offshore wind at 34 mph dropping the score, and the afternoon turns into a washing machine with 13 ft on a short 11-second period and strong onshore cross-off. That’s not surfable. Sunday settles down a bit with 8 ft in the morning, but the cross-off is still there; the afternoon has a 7 ft swell with light winds for cleaner conditions, but it’s not the same quality.
Monday drops right off with weak 4 ft to 5 ft swells and cross-shore chop – forget it. Tuesday morning finds a sneaky clean 4 ft swell with a very long 18-second period, and a NNW offshore breeze. The energy is only 1729 – mellow – but that long period means it’ll wall up, and for a reef, it’ll be lined-up. A good window for the less experienced crew if they’re keen on a quiet paddle.
The second week gets more uncertain. Wednesday, September 9th, has a huge 12 ft SW groundswell on the afternoon, 19-second period, but the wind is a strong cross-shore – not worth it. Thursday, September 10th, sees an 12 ft swell with a light cross-on breeze, which might be rideable but not epic. The real promise in week two is Thursday, September 17th: an 8 ft SW swell with a fresh offshore breeze from the NW at 22 mph, and the energy is getting strong at 2818. That’s a long-range highlight, and if the wind holds, it could be a solid day. But it’s far out, so keep an eye on it.
There’s a gap of a few days around the 14th and 15th where the swell drops below 5 ft and winds are poor – a flat spell. Overall, Friday is the true standout this period – if you can handle the size, it’s worth the drive. The rest of the time, it’s either too windy or too mushy.
Stay stoked,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the WNW on Wed morning, strong winds from the NW by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 7°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sat morning, calm by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1685 | 2418 | 2544 | 3785 | 4735 | 5520 | 5134 | 4703 | 3415 | 3756 | 3896 | 3557 | 2284 | 1474 | 798 | 418 | 710 | 718 | 1124 | 2437 | 1806 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross | cross-off | off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 2:56PM2.03m | 3:38AM2.11m | 3:28PM2.04m | 4:19AM2.12m | 4:02PM2.04m | 5:03AM2.09m | 4:39PM2.01m | 5:51AM2.01m | 5:21PM1.96m | 6:45AM1.91m | 6:11PM1.87m | 7:50AM1.81m | 7:15PM1.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:14PM0.17m | 9:36AM0.53m | 9:50PM0.08m | 10:13AM0.60m | 10:30PM0.05m | 10:53AM0.69m | 11:13PM0.07m | 11:37AM0.79m | 00:02AM0.13m | 12:28PM0.89m | 00:59AM0.24m | 1:33PM0.96m | 2:08AM0.36m | ||||||||
6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | |
— | 5:58 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SSW 15 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
1685 | 2418 | 2544 | — | 4735 | 5520 | 5134 | 4703 | 3415 | 204 | — | — | 2284 | 1474 | 798 | 418 | 710 | 718 | 542 | 2437 | 1806 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 6 | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | — | — | — | SSW 16 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | — | — | — | SSW 15 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 |
59 | 215 | 158 | — | — | — | 280 | 317 | 291 | — | — | — | 42 | 31 | 25 | 18 | 72 | 464 | 1124 | 116 | 97 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 14 | — | S 22 | SW 22 | SSW 20 | SSW 18 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19 | — | 9 | 73 | 38 | 63 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 4 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | — | NW 4 | — | NNW 4 | WSW 15 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | — | — | — | W 4 | SSW 7 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 26 | 3785 | 3278 | — | 17 | — | 11 | 3756 | 3896 | 3557 | — | — | — | 20 | 48 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 62 | 53 | 66 | 66 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 326 | 485 | 534 | 66 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 78 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











