Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Issued: 9 pm 04 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
14.1° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 4,745 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.5m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Mon 6th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Best Surf 4PM (Wed 8th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 18s
Most Powerful 7AM (Sun 5th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what's lining up for Point Leo. There’s a no-surf gap right now, so the first decent waves aren't expected until Monday, July 6th. That’s a few days of flat or poor conditions to sit through.

Sunday the 5th is a write-off. We’ve got a big 10ft SW swell hammering the coast, but it’s paired with a stiff onshore ESE wind at 12-18 mph, making for poor surf conditions. The combined swell energy is massive (6014), but it’s messy. Leave it.

Monday the 6th is where it kicks off. Morning sees the swell drop to 5ft from the SW, with a very long period of 14 seconds and a clean cross-off breeze from the NNE at just 3 mph. Combined energy is moderate (1026). That’s very good surf conditions. By afternoon, it gets even better: glassy conditions with a light SSW breeze, and the swell settles to a clean 4ft. The water temp is about average for this time of year. This is your first standout – clean, long-period groundswell wrapping into this reef setup. Point Leo is fairly consistent and exposed to SW swells, which matches the optimum direction. Crowds are possible here sometimes, but a weekday in winter should keep it mellow.

Tuesday the 7th is more marginal. The morning has 3ft SW swell with 17-second periods and a light cross-shore wind. The energy is moderate (850), but with questionable tide conditions. Afternoon picks up a bit to 5ft but the wind turns cross-on from the SSE. It's not a total loss, but I’d aim for the morning glass-off if you’re keen.

Wednesday the 8th is a real treat, especially the afternoon. The morning has 5ft SW swell and cross-shore winds, but the afternoon switches to glassy conditions with a 7ft SW swell at an 18-second period. The combined energy jumps to strong (2951) and the forecast calls for excellent surf for experienced surfers. That’s a standout session – big, clean, long-period groundswell with no wind. Point Leo will be handling that size well, but at over 7ft it’s for experienced crew only.

Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th are both solid, consistent days. Thursday offers clean 5ft to 4ft SW swell with glassy or cross-off winds, and the energy stays moderate (1124 to 800). Friday holds steady at 5ft with similar conditions. Very good surf, just not the size of Wednesday, but cleaner for a bigger range of surfers.

Saturday the 11th is a write-off. Strong N winds at 22-25 mph, poor surf conditions, and a rain shower in the afternoon. The swell drops to 4ft but it’s blown out. Not worth it.

Sunday the 12th has size again, but tricky winds. Mornings see a fresh offshore WNW at 22 mph and 8ft SW swell. Combined energy is high (1912). It’s clean but windy – marginal for typical surfing. By afternoon, the wind picks up even more and the swell hits 10ft. The energy is strong (3152), but with rain showers and strong breezes, it’s rough.

Monday the 13th looks promising again. Morning offers 10ft SW swell with fresh offshore NW winds at 19 mph. Energy is very strong (4589). The afternoon is the real standout of the second week: a massive 12ft SW swell with a 19-second period, combined energy over 11403, and still fresh offshore NW winds. That’s huge, powerful, and clean – expert-only territory. This is your long-range standout, but it’s more than a week away so treat it as promising but not locked in.

Tuesday the 14th stays solid with 10ft SW swell and offshore winds, but the energy drops slightly. Still a good day for experienced surfers. Wednesday the 15th brings onshore cross-winds and rain, making the big 10ft swell messy. Not recommended.

Thursday the 16th is smaller, around 8-7ft, with moderate cross-off winds. Still clean but nothing special. Friday the 17th has a nice drop to 5ft in the morning with offshore NNW winds and moderate energy (767) – very good surf conditions again for a wider range – but the afternoon turns poor. Saturday the 18th has strong winds again. Sunday the 19th sees a short-period 8-second swell at 7ft in the morning, then a 8ft SW groundswell in the afternoon with cleaner winds.

Monday the 20th closes the window with a 10ft SW swell, fresh cross-off winds, and very strong energy (5941). It’s clean but big, for experts only, and still a week and a half out.

Overall, the best bets are: Monday the 6th for clean, manageable waves and Wednesday the 8th afternoon for a glassy, big-groundswell session. Keep an eye on Monday the 13th afternoon – if it holds, that’s a monster day for the bold.

Stay stoked.
Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the E on Sun afternoon, calm by Mon morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue night, min 8°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Sat
11
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
3
3
1
2
2
1
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
14
3
SW
17
2.5
SW
16
2
SW
16
1.6
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
18
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.2
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
2
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2436
4745
3785
1904
1006
726
398
568
1096
1048
1342
2714
1571
1041
757
606
1219
1045
752
548
1295
Wind (km/h)
25
S
25
ESE
30
ESE
30
E
5
NNE
5
SSW
10
NE
5
NE
10
SSE
15
E
10
ENE
5
SE
10
NNE
10
N
5
NNW
10
NNE
15
N
5
NNW
20
N
40
N
40
N
Wind State
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-off
glassy
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
2:46AM1.66m
3:30PM2.04m
3:28AM1.69m
3:59PM2.03m
4:10AM1.72m
4:28PM2.00m
4:53AM1.77m
4:57PM1.97m
5:41AM1.81m
5:30PM1.94m
6:34AM1.85m
6:09PM1.90m
7:34AM1.88m
6:55PM1.86m
Low Tide
8:54AM0.40m
9:46PM0.65m
9:30AM0.45m
10:18PM0.57m
10:07AM0.52m
10:50PM0.49m
10:46AM0.60m
11:24PM0.39m
11:30AM0.70m
00:04AM0.30m
12:19PM0.80m
00:50AM0.22m
1:16PM0.91m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
mod rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:37
7:37
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:10
5:10
5:12
5:12
5:13
5:13
5:14
 mm
7
Temp °C
12
11
11
9
10
12
12
10
13
13
9
11
10
9
11
10
10
12
10
12
11
Feels °C
7
5
5
3
9
10
10
9
9
9
7
9
7
6
9
8
6
9
5
3
3
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
14
3
SW
17
2.5
SW
16
2
SW
16
1.6
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.1
SW
13
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
18
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.2
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
1.2
WSW
13
Energy kJ
2436
4745
3785
1904
1006
726
398
568
1096
1048
1342
2714
1571
1041
757
606
1219
1045
752
548
469
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
SW
17
1.5
SSW
17
1.3
SSW
17
1.1
SSW
15
0.5
SE
5
0.3
SE
5
0.3
SW
19
0.9
SW
13
0.3
SSW
16
0.3
SSW
16
1.4
SW
15
0.6
SSW
17
0.5
S
16
0.4
SSW
16
0.3
SSW
15
0.8
SW
18
0.4
SSW
15
0.3
SSW
14
0.3
SSW
14
Energy kJ
962
1269
958
491
14
4
57
282
50
48
784
237
129
83
43
383
78
41
37
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
SW
19
0.2
ESE
12
0.5
SSW
19
0.2
ESE
11
0.2
ESE
10
0.3
SSW
18
Energy kJ
93
14
203
12
11
65
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.2
SW
15
1.1
SE
5
1.1
ESE
5
0.5
NE
4
0.5
N
3
1.2
NNW
4
2
WSW
13
Energy kJ
2092
49
57
6
4
54
1295
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
1
5
3
2
3
3
2
3
3
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
Distance (km)
135
10
124
120
0
0
2
2
10
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
58
61
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
4
3
3
3
3
4
3
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
4
5
9
7
4
4
8
7
4
5
7
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
4
5
9
7
5
5
8
7
5
5
9
7
9
5
7
5
5
4
8
4
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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