Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 28 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.2° C
0.2° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 28 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 31 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 12s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 12,978 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 24s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 5.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Fri 31st Jul)5.5ft (1.7m) 12s
Best Surf 1AM (Fri 31st Jul)5.5ft (1.7m) 12s
Most Powerful 7AM (Wed 29th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Point Leo over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with some serious size and power early on, but you’ll need to pick your windows carefully for clean conditions. The water temp is sitting around 55.8°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

We kick off Tuesday the 28th of July with a solid 5.2ft SW groundswell, period a nice 13 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate at 837. Problem is, we’ve got a strong NNW breeze at 28 mph making it cross-offshore – the surf will be clean but that wind strength means it’s a real battle to paddle into anything. Definitely not a beginner’s day. Tuesday afternoon the swell bumps up to 5.9ft from the SW with a 15-second period and the energy jumps to 2013, now strong. The wind turns NW and offshore at 28 mph, so it’s clean and lined up, but again, that paddle-out is going to sort the men from the boys.

Wednesday the 29th is a write-off for surfing – we’ve got a huge 14.8ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, energy screaming at 10311, but it’s blowing a near-gale from the WSW at 31 mph. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The afternoon stays big at 13.1ft with messy cross-shore wind and cross-chop. Give it a miss.

Thursday the 30th the swell drops to a more manageable 7.5ft, still SW and 13 seconds, energy at 3345 – strong. Wind is W at 16 mph, cross-offshore, so the surf is clean but the tide might mess with the banks. It’s marginal, but for an experienced surfer there’s something to work with. Friday the 31st looks better: the swell eases to 4.9ft, 12-second period, with a light W breeze at 6 mph creating clean cross-off conditions. Combined energy is 678, still moderate. This is a good window for a solid session – not too big, not too wild.

Saturday the 1st of August has a tricky one. Morning sees tiny 2.6ft SW swell but with an 18-second period – very long groundswell. Energy is only 853, moderate. Wind is light from the N, cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but that long period might make it wall up and close out at the beach. The afternoon picks up to 6.2ft with the same long period, energy jumps to 2473, and the wind stays moderate – still clean, but the swell direction and period combo might suit the reef better.

Sunday the 2nd of August: morning has 5.9ft SW swell, 16-second period, fresh NW offshore wind at 22 mph. Energy is strong at 1922. The offshore breeze will hold the waves open, but the long period could make it a bit fast on the take-off. Afternoon holds similar size and energy with a cross-off wind.

Now, let’s fast-forward. Monday the 3rd of August is not worth it – onshore wind and messy. Tuesday the 4th is cross-onshore and choppy. Wednesday the 5th of August is a standout for the second week. Morning brings 3.9ft SW swell, 14-second period, light N wind at 6 mph – clean and lined up. Energy is 795, moderate. Afternoon gets even better: glassy conditions with a 3 mph SE breeze, 3.9ft swell, same period, and energy of 990. This is your pick for a smooth, fun session on the reef.

Thursday the 6th of August holds similar quality: 4.3ft SW swell, 16-second period, light N wind in the morning, and glassy in the afternoon with a 3 mph NW breeze. Energy stays moderate. Then we lose the surf for a few days – Friday the 7th is tiny and weak, Saturday the 8th has a spike in size but with strong winds, and Sunday the 9th through Monday the 10th are blown out or weak.

The best of the rest comes on Tuesday the 11th of August: 5.2ft from the WSW, 13-second period, gentle WNW breeze at 9 mph – clean and fun. Energy is moderate at 799. Wednesday the 12th of August brings a bigger pulse – 9.8ft WSW, 13 seconds, with fresh northerly wind – that’s a lot of power (3614 energy), but it’s clean and for experienced surfers only. The afternoon sees 11.5ft SW, 14-second period, energy 9596 – very strong, but again, expert territory with clean conditions.

If I had to pick the best on offer, it’s Wednesday the 5th of August – that glassy afternoon session with 3.9ft of SW swell will be the most inviting for a relaxed, clean surf. For the more experienced, Friday the 31st of July is also a solid call with clean 4.9ft waves and light wind.

Just a heads up: Point Leo is a reef break suited to beginners, but when the swell gets over

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue night, light winds from the WSW by Thu night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sun morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Sat night).

Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
2
2
0
0
1
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
0
1
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
13
1.8
SW
15
3
WSW
14
4.5
SW
16
4
SW
16
3
SW
14
2.3
SW
13
2.1
SW
13
1.7
SW
12
1.5
SW
12
1.4
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
0.8
SW
18
1.9
SW
18
2.3
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
2.2
SW
15
3
SW
15
2.4
SW
14
2
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
784
1441
3403
10311
7674
3773
1723
1395
854
624
519
457
432
2293
3273
1771
1806
2027
3181
2261
1306
Wind (km/h)
45
NNW
45
NW
55
WNW
50
WSW
40
SW
30
SW
25
W
30
WSW
10
WSW
10
W
5
WSW
10
NNE
15
N
25
N
30
NNW
35
NW
35
WSW
20
SSW
15
SSE
20
SSE
15
E
Wind State
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
High Tide
10:57AM1.67m
9:43PM1.49m
11:57AM1.74m
10:58PM1.50m
12:46PM1.82m
00:05AM1.54m
1:26PM1.90m
1:02AM1.61m
2:01PM1.96m
1:51AM1.68m
2:32PM2.01m
2:34AM1.76m
3:01PM2.03m
3:15AM1.84m
Low Tide
4:44PM1.15m
4:41AM0.52m
5:56PM1.09m
5:41AM0.49m
6:51PM0.98m
6:33AM0.46m
7:35PM0.86m
7:19AM0.43m
8:12PM0.73m
8:00AM0.42m
8:45PM0.61m
8:38AM0.43m
9:16PM0.49m
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:24
7:24
7:22
7:22
7:22
7:20
7:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:27
5:28
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
5:31
 mm
3
6
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
3
1
Temp °C
14
13
10
11
11
11
11
12
11
11
11
11
12
14
11
11
12
11
11
11
10
Feels °C
5
4
-2
0
3
3
4
6
7
8
9
9
6
8
5
3
4
4
5
5
5
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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