
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 4,745 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 4s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sun 5th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
G’day, I’m Rusty, and we’re looking at Point Leo on the Mornington Peninsula for the next couple of weeks. After a messy start to the weekend, we’ve got some real standouts coming up, with a classic winter run of SW groundswell and sweet conditions.
Right now, the water’s sitting at a mild 58°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for July, nothing weird. A little warmer than average, but barely noticeable.
The weekend is a write-off. A big 10ft SW swell rolls in Saturday morning with a cross-off WSW wind at 16 mph and combined wave energy of 2740, but the whole vibe is marginal. By Sunday it’s a no-go—onshore ESE winds at 16 mph and the swell jumps to a whopping 6604 energy reading but with poor surf conditions. Don’t bother paddling out. It’s a solid gap of poor surf until things change.
Monday 6 July is where it gets good. Morning sees the swell drop to a clean 5ft from the SW, with a NNE cross-off breeze at just 6 mph and energy at 1025. Clean, inviting, and the sort of morning that makes you forget the weekend. The standouts keep coming Monday afternoon when it goes glassy with a SSE breath at 3 mph and 4ft of SW swell. That’s clean as a whistle, perfect for trimming down the reef.
Tuesday 7 July morning is another beauty: 3ft SW groundswell (17-second period—long, lots of push between sets), NE glassy wind at 3 mph, energy around 857. The period is long, which at Point Leo reef will draw the swell in nicely and produce some proper shape. Beginners will love it, the size is well within their comfort zone.
Wednesday 8 July afternoon is a certified standout for the experienced crew. A clean 7ft SW swell rolls in, NNE cross-off at 3 mph, energy reading 2768, and the conditions are excellent. This is a solid reef wave with plenty of grunt—big enough to get the heart racing but not out of control if you know the spot. The crowd factor is “sometimes” here, so you might share it, but with this quality, it’s worth the company.
A gap then opens up after Thursday 10 July. Friday 11 morning is clean but dropping to 5ft with NNE winds, okay but nothing special. Then from Sunday 12 July through to Tuesday 15 July, it’s a mix of poor surf, strong winds (light rain, NNW up to 28 mph), and lumpy conditions. A dry spell of a few days.
Things kick back to life on Wednesday 16 July afternoon. That’s 8ft SW swell, NW offshore at 9 mph, clean as, with energy 2559 and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. A late-winter gem.
Friday 17 July and Saturday 18 July bring big swells again—10ft to 13ft SW—with strong offshore NW winds and energy readings from 3682 to over 7700. This is expert territory only. The period around 14 seconds means it’s got some grunt, but at these sizes only the boldest should be out. Crowds are “sometimes,” so expect a few chargers. By Sunday 19 July it drops back to a clean 5ft with offshore winds, but the energy is low at 786, so it’s a mellow finish to the run.
Best on offer: This stretch from Monday 6 July through Wednesday 8 July afternoon. That 7ft on Wednesday with glassy cross-off wind is the clear standout for quality. For the second week, Wednesday 16 July afternoon is your best bet—big, clean, and powerful.
Stay safe, keep your wits about you when it gets solid, and remember: this is a reef, so take care on the low tide.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the E on Sun afternoon, calm by Mon morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue night, min 7°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2740 | 2180 | 2284 | 4745 | 3555 | 1904 | 1006 | 726 | 398 | 575 | 1096 | 936 | 1228 | 2528 | 1456 | 1028 | 757 | 1327 | 1164 | 856 | 606 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:59PM2.03m | 2:46AM1.66m | 3:30PM2.04m | 3:28AM1.69m | 3:59PM2.03m | 4:10AM1.72m | 4:28PM2.00m | 4:53AM1.77m | 4:57PM1.97m | 5:41AM1.81m | 5:30PM1.94m | 6:34AM1.85m | 6:09PM1.90m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:13PM0.73m | 8:54AM0.40m | 9:46PM0.65m | 9:30AM0.45m | 10:18PM0.57m | 10:07AM0.52m | 10:50PM0.49m | 10:46AM0.60m | 11:24PM0.39m | 11:30AM0.70m | 00:04AM0.30m | 12:19PM0.80m | 00:50AM0.22m | ||||||||
7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | |
— | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
— | 102 | 2284 | 4745 | 3555 | 1904 | 1006 | 726 | 398 | 575 | 1096 | 936 | 1228 | 2528 | 1456 | 1028 | 757 | 1327 | 1164 | 856 | 606 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 17 | SSW 17 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SE 5 | SE 5 | SW 19 | SW 13 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 18 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SE 11 |
— | — | 962 | 1859 | 958 | 424 | 13 | 4 | 59 | 282 | 50 | 80 | 767 | 240 | 146 | 83 | 43 | 107 | 74 | 37 | 5 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 20 | — | — | — | SSW 19 | — | — | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | — | — | ESE 12 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | — | — | 205 | — | — | 12 | 11 | — | — | 14 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | — | ESE 3 | ESE 5 | NE 4 | — | ESE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | E 4 | — | — | — | — | — |
2740 | 2180 | 2092 | — | 4 | 48 | 6 | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 61 | 78 | 135 | 10 | 120 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










