Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 17 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 21 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 11s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,299 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 23) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Tue 18th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Fri 21st Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the coming weeks at Point Leo.
It’s a bit of a slow start, but once the wind plays nice, this reef setup has some real potential. The water is sitting at 55°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there.
Point Leo is a fairly consistent reef break that works best with swell from the SW. The first few days of the outlook are a bit of a write-off, with the wind blowing onshore or cross-shore and the conditions looking messy. You’ll see a bit of swell on Monday afternoon, 5ft from the SW with a 16-second period, but the SE wind is on it and the combined energy is a solid 1467 (moderate to strong), but it’s just not clean. The tide or something else is making it marginal.
Wednesday morning and afternoon the 19th is a total no-go with strong northerly winds blowing 25 mph, dropping the swell right down to 2ft or 3ft. Hard pass.
We start to see some life by Thursday the 20th. The morning has a 4ft WSW swell with a 13-second period and a clean offshore NW wind at 16 mph. The combined energy is 895 (moderate), and it’s looking clean. But the real standout is Thursday afternoon. The wind goes a touch lighter, still offshore from the WNW at 12 mph, the swell is 4ft from the WSW, 13 seconds, and the energy is 814 (moderate). The conditions are set to be very good, with clean, offshore lines.
Friday the 21st is the pick of the first week. Morning sees 5ft from the WSW, 15-second period, offshore NW wind at 16 mph, and a combined energy of 1285 (moderate to strong). It’s gonna be very good. The afternoon is even better for the experienced crew: 5ft from the SW, 14 seconds, offshore NW wind at 12 mph, and a meaty 1492 combined energy (moderate to strong). The report says excellent conditions for experienced surfers, and I’m stoked on that.
The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd brings a big jump in size. Saturday morning has 8ft from the SW with a 16-second period, WNW wind at 19 mph (cross-off), and a massive 2731 combined energy (strong). That’s a fair bit of grunt. Saturday afternoon pushes 8ft from the WSW, 15 seconds, and a huge 6042 combined energy (very strong). That’s serious swell. This is expert territory – over 8ft is big for most. The wind is cross-off, keeping it clean, but it’s powerful. Sunday the 23rd holds excellent conditions with 7ft from the SW, 14 seconds, and a clean offshore NW wind at 16 mph. The energy reads 2101 (strong). This is a proper groundswell window, and the long period (15-16 seconds) means it’ll peel nicely down the reef, with longer lulls between sets making the paddle out a bit easier.
Monday the 24th is another good one. The morning has 5ft from the SW, 14 seconds, offshore NW wind at 12 mph, and 1167 combined energy. The afternoon is a treat: glassy conditions with only a 3 mph WSW breeze, 5ft from the SW, 14 seconds, and 909 energy. That’s going to be smooth and clean.
The second week settles down. Tuesday the 25th is glassy again in the afternoon with a 4ft SW swell, 12 seconds, and 539 energy – nice for a cruiser session. After that, the wind picks up and the swell drops. Wednesday the 26th, swell is around 3ft with a strong offshore wind, but the combined energy is low (453). By Thursday the 27th, we see a very long-period pulse (18 seconds) but only 3ft, with a fresh offshore wind, and the energy is 676. It’s marginal, but that long period might offer a few clean shapes if you time it right.
The end of the outlook gets a bit windy. Friday the 28th sees a big spike in size again – 7ft from the SW, 14 seconds, with a strong 22 mph cross-off wind, and a very high 3357 combined energy. That’s a lot of power, but the wind is strong and the second half of the day turns ugly with a strong cross-shore. The last few days of August and into September are a mix of cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions, with the swell hanging around 3ft to 4ft. The energy is still moderate to strong (over 1000 at times), but the wind is messy.
The absolute standout windows are Friday the 21st and Sunday the 23rd of August. Friday has the excellent size and wind for experienced surfers, while Sunday delivers a big, clean, powerful groundswell with offshore winds. For the more relaxed surfer, Monday the 24th afternoon with glassy conditions is your best bet.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Tue afternoon, strong winds from the N by Wed morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
1171 | 597 | 621 | 465 | 251 | 239 | 217 | 427 | 484 | 572 | 658 | 627 | 2610 | 2906 | 4299 | 2717 | 2171 | 1785 | 1904 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | off | off | off | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:24AM2.06m | 3:27PM2.12m | 4:08AM2.04m | 4:01PM2.07m | 4:48AM1.99m | 4:33PM1.99m | 5:28AM1.90m | 5:04PM1.90m | 6:08AM1.81m | 5:36PM1.80m | 6:53AM1.71m | 6:09PM1.70m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:24AM0.43m | 9:49PM0.16m | 10:03AM0.53m | 10:25PM0.18m | 10:39AM0.64m | 11:01PM0.23m | 11:15AM0.75m | 11:37PM0.31m | 11:50AM0.87m | 00:14AM0.40m | 12:29PM0.98m | 00:57AM0.48m | |||||||
— | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 14 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 11 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 |
1171 | 597 | 621 | 465 | 251 | 239 | 217 | 427 | 484 | 572 | 658 | 334 | 2610 | 2906 | 3330 | 2717 | 2171 | 1785 | 1904 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 5 | SW 17 | SSW 16 | ESE 4 | SE 7 | SE 7 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 15 | SSW 16 | — | SSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SSW 16 |
17 | 358 | 51 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 157 | 219 | 219 | 530 | 597 | 135 | 144 | — | 149 | 155 | 112 | 48 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 5 | — | ESE 4 | S 15 | — | SW 20 | S 17 | S 16 | SSW 15 | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | SSW 19 | SSW 15 | SSW 18 | — |
— | 7 | — | 10 | 4 | — | 15 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 98 | 460 | — | — | — | 36 | 84 | 31 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 5 | — | ESE 5 | — | N 4 | N 4 | NW 3 | WNW 4 | NW 4 | — | — | WSW 11 | — | NW 3 | WSW 16 | — | — | WSW 5 | — |
42 | — | 11 | — | 17 | 27 | 9 | 17 | 11 | — | — | 627 | — | 3 | 4299 | — | — | 71 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 16 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 69 | 0 | 53 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 78 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











