
Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 18 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,550 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 13 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 6s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 13th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Point Leo.
The next couple of weeks are a mixed bag. The models are showing a lot of energy rolling in, but the wind is going to be the main character here – sometimes it plays nice, sometimes it doesn’t. We’ve got a bunch of solid SW groundswell on the table, but the windows of clean conditions are going to be specific. The water temp is sitting around 57°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – about 2°F above average, so nothing crazy, but it’s a nice little bonus.
Right now, the immediate forecast isn’t jumping out. Sunday is a write-off – a raw 19 mph north wind and a bumpy 5ft SW swell. Not your day. Monday morning the 14th is our first real highlight. We’ve got a clean 3ft SW swell with a 12 mph offshore from the WNW. The combined swell energy is still moderate at 372, but the offshore wind makes it tidy. It’s a small, clean beginner-friendly wave at Point Leo. The afternoon gets messy with a cross-shore, so get on it early.
Tuesday the 15th sees a big jump in size – a 8ft SW swell, but it’s getting hammered by a 19 mph WSW cross-off. The energy is strong at 2178, but the rain showers and freshening breeze make it marginal. By afternoon, a 25 mph SW wind turns it into a messy, choppy 10ft barely surfable – that’s more of a kite-surfing setup than anything else.
Wednesday the 16th is a massive 10ft SW groundswell with a solid 15-second period. The energy is pumping at 6973, but the wind is a lumpy cross-onshore all day. This is expert-only at best, and honestly, the conditions are going to be rough.
The next standout window is Thursday the 17th morning. The swell drops to 7ft from the SW, and the wind is a light 9 mph cross-shore. It’s not glassy, but the energy is still strong at 1983. It’s a mid-tier option.
Friday the 18th afternoon is the best call of the first week. The swell is 4ft from the SW, but the period is a very long 17 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The wind is a clean 12 mph offshore from the WNW. The combined energy is 1676, and it’s clean and lined up. This is a classic Point Leo day for the experienced surfer – long-period SW groundswell loves a reef setup like this. Crowds are possible here at Point Leo, so don’t sleep on it.
Saturday the 19th afternoon has a clean 6ft WSW swell with a gentle 9 mph offshore – that’s a very good session in the books. The energy is moderate at 946, but the conditions are glassy.
We then hit a poor stretch. The 20th is blown out by a near gale. The 21st is cross-on and choppy. Nothing worth paddling for.
The second week starts looking better. Tuesday the 22nd afternoon has a solid 8ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period and a clean cross-off breeze. Energy is strong at 3044. Good, but it’s a big swell.
Wednesday the 23rd morning is the standout of the second week. A massive 10ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period and a clean cross-off. Energy is pumping at 4427. It’s going to be a big, powerful wave at Point Leo – expert territory. The wind is favourable, but the size is serious. It’s a promising call, but being 10 days out, keep an eye on the wind direction.
Saturday the 26th brings a clean return to small, fun waves – 5ft SW with a light offshore breeze. Gentle and clean. That’s a nice way to close out the outlook.
Bottom line: Best on offer is Friday 18th afternoon for the clean, long-period groundswell with offshore wind. The big standout for the bigger wave hunter is Wednesday 23rd morning, but that’s a long-range call.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Warm (max 21°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri afternoon, min 7°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1006 | 927 | 598 | 357 | 257 | 130 | 1883 | 3527 | 4247 | 4079 | 3848 | 3152 | 1983 | 1280 | 852 | 1029 | 886 | 1808 | 1115 | 932 | 604 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | off | off | off | off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:03PM1.96m | 1:34AM2.03m | 1:42PM2.01m | 2:20AM2.11m | 2:19PM2.03m | 3:01AM2.13m | 2:54PM2.02m | 3:39AM2.11m | 3:27PM1.98m | 4:15AM2.05m | 3:58PM1.93m | 4:50AM1.96m | 4:29PM1.85m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:17PM0.36m | 7:41AM0.46m | 7:58PM0.23m | 8:23AM0.48m | 8:37PM0.16m | 9:01AM0.52m | 9:13PM0.14m | 9:37AM0.57m | 9:47PM0.17m | 10:11AM0.64m | 10:21PM0.24m | 10:43AM0.73m | 10:55PM0.33m | ||||||||
6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | |
— | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 21 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
Feels °C | 15 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | — | SSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 |
1006 | 927 | 598 | 357 | 257 | 130 | 295 | — | 76 | 4079 | 3848 | 3152 | 1983 | 1280 | 852 | 1029 | 790 | 1808 | 1115 | 932 | 604 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 15 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SW 20 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | SSW 15 | — | — | — | — | SW 5 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | — | SW 19 | SW 18 |
88 | 48 | 22 | 15 | 37 | 111 | — | — | — | 246 | — | — | — | — | 40 | 468 | 886 | — | — | 14 | 78 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | S 14 | S 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | SSW 19 | — | — | — | — | SSW 14 |
— | — | — | — | 4 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 73 | 69 | — | — | — | — | 18 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | SW 5 | WSW 7 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 6 | — | — | SW 5 | NW 3 | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 |
9 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 91 | 1883 | 3527 | 4247 | 2648 | 2551 | 121 | — | — | 64 | 3 | — | — | 5 | 4 | 19 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 78 | 66 | 657 | 273 | 324 | 135 | 10 | 10 | 78 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 52 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










