Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Issued: 3 am 07 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.9° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 6,987 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1PM (Tue 7th Jul)4.5ft (1.4m) 16s
Best Surf 1AM (Tue 14th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 17s
Most Powerful 7AM (Mon 13th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming our way at Point Leo, though we’ll have to wait out a rough patch in between. The water is sitting at 57° which feels about normal for this time of year. Let’s get into it.

Tuesday the 7th kicks things off with a nice morning. A clean 3ft SW groundswell rolling in at 17 seconds – that’s a long period, giving it plenty of push. The wind is light from the NNE, cross-off, so the reef will be looking clean. Combined swell energy is moderate at 850. This is a good session for beginners, just watch those longer gaps between sets. Point Leo (Big Island) is a reef setup, so that long period works a treat here.

Wednesday the 8th morning sees a similar vibe: 5ft SW swell with a 19-second period, cross winds from the NE but still light, and the energy jumps right up to 2403, so there’s some real power behind it. Still clean enough for a decent paddle.

Thursday the 9th is where it starts to get really good. Morning has 5ft SW at 16 seconds with a light NNE cross-off – clean as. Afternoon goes glassy with a 4ft SW at 15 seconds and barely a breath from the ESE. That’s the standout window for a relaxed, clean session. Energy holds at 935.

Friday the 10th keeps the good times rolling. Morning: 5ft SW at 15 seconds, light NNE cross-off, energy at 1272. Afternoon: 5ft SW, same period, but the wind swings NW offshore at only 3 mph – that’s the pick for a clean, lined-up session.

Now the bad news: Saturday the 11th is a write-off. Strong breeze from the NNW at 25 mph, messy 4ft SW at 14 seconds, energy stuck below 600. Don’t bother. Sunday the 12th is only for the keen: 7-8ft SW at 12 seconds, strong offshore wind but it’ll be hard to paddle into and the scores are low.

Here comes the stand-out: Monday the 13th. We’re looking at 13ft SW at 15 seconds in the morning, cross-off wind from the W at 16 mph, and combined energy is through the roof at 11203. That’s serious power. This is only for experts – waves over 8ft and a very long period. The reef will handle it beautifully, and it’s clean. This is the best session of the whole outlook, but it’s for experienced surfers only. Afternoon drops to 12ft at 16 seconds, still punchy.

Tuesday the 14th stays big: 10ft SW at 16 seconds, fresh offshore from the WNW, but with rain showers adding a bit of sting. Still clean for those who can handle it.

Wednesday the 15th eases to 7ft SW at 14 seconds, moderate cross-off wind, but by afternoon a cross-chop creeps in. Not the best.

Thursday the 16th morning comes back clean: 6ft SW at 14 seconds, light cross-off, energy at 1220 – a decent session for mid-range surfers.

Friday the 17th afternoon is a real treat: 6ft SW at 15 seconds, pure offshore from the NW at 6 mph, clean and lined up. That’s a standout for experienced surfers looking for quality without the huge size.

Saturday the 18th is another blown-out dud – strong NNW winds, 3ft weak swell. Sunday the 19th sees an offshore blow at 25 mph – strong offshore and clean but tough to paddle into. Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are messy with rain and strong winds, waves at 7-10ft but poor quality.

The final highlight comes Wednesday the 22nd: 12ft SW at 16 seconds, fresh cross-off from the WNW, combined energy at 8661 – big, clean, and powerful, but expert territory again.

In short: the best is Monday the 13th morning for experts, and Friday the 17th afternoon for the rest of us wanting clean, manageable waves. There’s a rough gap from Saturday the 11th through Sunday the 12th, and again from Saturday the 18th to Tuesday the 21st, so pick your windows.

Stay safe, keep your eyes on the horizon.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 7°C on Tue morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sat morning).

Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
1
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
2
0
0
3
1
2
3
7
5
5
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.5
SW
15
1.4
SW
19
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
2.1
SW
11
2.2
SW
12
2.5
SW
12
4
SW
14
4
SW
15
3.5
SW
16
3
SW
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
568
1096
962
1357
2714
1571
1041
757
1398
1203
1006
857
581
564
1065
1323
1976
6131
6818
6742
5808
Wind (km/h)
10
NNE
5
SE
10
ENE
10
NE
10
SSE
10
NE
5
NNE
5
ESE
5
NNE
10
N
5
NNW
20
N
40
NNW
45
NNW
20
WNW
35
NNW
40
NW
25
W
30
W
25
W
25
NW
Wind State
cross-off
on
cross-on
cross
on
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
High Tide
4:28PM2.00m
4:53AM1.77m
4:57PM1.97m
5:41AM1.81m
5:30PM1.94m
6:34AM1.85m
6:09PM1.90m
7:34AM1.88m
6:55PM1.86m
8:41AM1.90m
7:51PM1.82m
9:53AM1.94m
8:58PM1.79m
Low Tide
10:07AM0.52m
10:50PM0.49m
10:46AM0.60m
11:24PM0.39m
11:30AM0.70m
00:04AM0.30m
12:19PM0.80m
00:50AM0.22m
1:16PM0.91m
1:45AM0.16m
2:21PM1.00m
2:47AM0.12m
3:36PM1.03m
3:55AM0.09m
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
mod rain
rain showers
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:12
5:12
5:13
5:13
5:14
5:15
5:15
 mm
1
8
4
2
4
Temp °C
9
12
12
10
11
11
9
11
11
11
13
11
11
12
11
12
13
12
12
12
11
Feels °C
8
10
9
8
9
8
8
9
9
8
10
6
2
3
7
3
5
6
6
7
6
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.5
SW
15
1.4
SW
19
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
1.2
SW
14
2.1
SW
11
2.2
SW
12
2.5
SW
12
4
SW
15
3.5
SW
16
3
SW
17
Energy kJ
568
1096
962
1357
2714
1571
1041
757
1398
1203
1006
857
581
564
1065
1323
1976
6818
6742
5808
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
SW
13
0.3
SSW
16
0.1
SW
24
1.4
SW
15
0.6
SSW
18
0.6
S
16
0.4
SSW
16
0.4
SW
20
0.5
S
17
0.4
SSW
14
0.3
SSW
14
1
WSW
9
0.5
SSW
16
0.8
SSW
17
Energy kJ
282
50
22
784
240
188
82
136
140
69
36
177
155
333
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
ESE
12
0.6
S
19
0.2
ESE
11
0.3
SSW
15
0.4
SSW
20
Energy kJ
14
262
12
42
128
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
NNW
3
0.9
NNW
4
1.2
NNW
5
0.7
NW
4
1.1
NW
5
1.3
NW
5
4
SW
14
3
SW
15
0.6
NNW
4
Energy kJ
3
31
61
15
54
80
6131
4385
10
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
4
9
5
5
5
Distance (km)
0
10
8
2
10
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
53
97
0
61
96
53
62
8
0
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
4
4
5
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
5
5
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
5
7
5
6
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
9
9
9
5
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
5
9
8
9
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
4
5
5
4
9
7
5
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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