Point Leo Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.43° S 145.08° E

Point Leo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 11 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Point Leo sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Point Leo surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Point Leo surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,345 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:

The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.4m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Sat 12th Sep)8ft (2.4m) 16s
Best Surf 4AM (Sat 12th Sep)8ft (2.4m) 16s
Most Powerful10PM (Tue 15th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, Rusty here. We've got a bit of a mixed bag coming our way over the next couple of weeks. The standout is definitely a reef set-up that loves a good SW groundswell, and we've got some solid pulses lined up. Water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year – not a huge deal, but a nice little bonus.

The first real action kicks off on Friday the 11th. Point Leo will be pumping with a 7ft SW groundswell, a long 15-second period packing some serious energy (2394). The morning is dead glassy, which is perfect for a reef break like this. The swell is over 5ft, so it's more for experienced surfers than beginners. The wind stays light into the afternoon, and with the water temp feeling a touch warm for Spring, you won't want to be anywhere else. Crowds can show up here, so get in early.

Saturday the 12th looks like the best of the first week. We've got a 7ft SW swell at 16 seconds, and even more energy (2575) behind it. Clean, glassy conditions again on Saturday afternoon with the wind dropping out. This is the one to circle – solid groundswell, perfect reef conditions, and that long period will make for some serious power. The swell direction is spot on for the optimum SW direction this reef likes.

Sunday the 13th through Monday the 14th sees the swell drop off and the wind picking up, making things average at best. We get a small pulse on Tuesday the 15th, with a 10ft SW swell but a short 10-second period, and nasty 35-40 km/h winds making a mess of it. That's a no-go, and actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th have solid 10ft+ swell, but it's messy with cross-onshore wind. The energy is massive (6321 on Wednesday morning), but the quality just isn't there for a good surf.

We get a good reset on Friday the 18th. Point Leo sees a 7ft SW swell with a 16-second period and clean, offshore NNW winds at 25 km/h. That's a return to form. The next few days after that are small and wind-affected.

Now, the standout of the entire outlook is Tuesday the 22nd of September. This is the one to wait for. We're looking at a 12ft SW swell, a 16-second period, and absolutely glassy conditions. That's very long period groundswell with a combined energy reading of 6028 – that's serious power. It's only for experts and those with a bit of nerve, but the potential is huge. If you can score that Tuesday morning, you're in for a treat. The following Wednesday the 23rd is also very solid with a clean 8ft swell.

The last few days (24th-26th) have some decent swell but are plagued by strong winds, keeping things fairly ordinary. So, to sum it up: Saturday the 12th is your best bet for this week, and Tuesday the 22nd of September is the long-range gem, but it's a big promise that needs the weather to play ball.

Stay sharp, Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the SW by Wed night).

Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
3
4
4
3
1
1
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
3
2
3
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.2
SW
15
2.3
SW
15
2.5
SW
16
2.2
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
14
1.4
SW
15
1.3
SW
14
1
SW
14
0.9
SW
13
0.6
SW
13
3
SW
10
3.5
SW
14
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
14
3
SW
14
2.4
SW
15
2.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
2.1
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2010
2437
3077
2295
1882
1500
1006
927
676
357
295
130
1624
5005
5020
3777
3137
2449
1618
1280
1787
Wind (km/h)
5
SW
10
S
5
ENE
10
N
5
SSE
15
NNE
30
N
25
NNW
20
N
30
NNW
30
SW
35
WSW
40
WSW
40
SW
35
SSW
25
S
20
S
15
SW
20
SW
10
SSW
10
N
Wind State
glassy
cross-on
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
High Tide
11:25AM1.83m
11:35PM1.80m
12:18PM1.90m
00:41AM1.92m
1:03PM1.96m
1:34AM2.03m
1:42PM2.01m
2:20AM2.11m
2:19PM2.03m
3:01AM2.13m
2:54PM2.02m
3:39AM2.11m
3:27PM1.98m
Low Tide
5:34PM0.71m
5:56AM0.48m
6:30PM0.53m
6:53AM0.46m
7:17PM0.36m
7:41AM0.46m
7:58PM0.23m
8:23AM0.48m
8:37PM0.16m
9:01AM0.52m
9:13PM0.14m
9:37AM0.57m
9:47PM0.17m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:28
6:26
6:24
6:22
6:20
6:20
6:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:05
6:06
6:07
6:07
6:08
6:09
6:09
 mm
2
2
Temp °C
11
12
11
16
19
17
21
21
19
16
15
15
11
11
10
11
11
11
10
10
9
Feels °C
8
9
8
15
18
15
15
16
15
13
12
10
2
1
0
5
6
6
6
7
8
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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