Surf Forecasts:
Point Leo surf forecast from 14 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 14 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 3,585 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Point Leo this week:
The surf forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 5s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Point Leo in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 14) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Friday (Aug 21) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Fri 14th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Point Leo over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve got a cracking run ahead at Point Leo. This reef break is the only show in town for the next 16 days, and honestly, it’s shaping up to be a ripper for the experienced crew. The water’s sitting at 55°F which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there – just get in and enjoy it.
The action kicks off Friday morning, August 14 with a meaty 10ft SW swell, period a very long 16 seconds, meaning groundswell with real punch. Combined energy is strong at 4302, and with that NW wind blowing offshore at 12 mph, it’s clean and lined up. This is serious surf – over 8ft, so experts only. The optimum swell direction is SW, and that’s exactly what we’ve got. Friday afternoon drops a touch to 8ft but stays clean with a cross-offshore breeze. Saturday the 15th is a beauty – 8ft SW swell, glassy conditions in the morning with barely a breath of wind, and the energy still pumping at 2742. That morning session is a standout: clean, powerful, and the reef will be handling that long-period swell beautifully. Keep in mind, because of that long period (15 seconds), the waves will be well-shaped but sets will be spaced out, making paddling out a bit easier for the fit surfer.
From Saturday afternoon the wind swings onshore, and while the swell sticks around, quality drops. Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are plagued by cross-onshore or onshore winds, making things choppy and marginal. The swell drops below 7ft, energy falls into the moderate range (973 to 767), and the scores reflect it’s not worth paddling out unless you’re bored. There’s a gap of poor conditions from late Saturday all through Monday.
Tuesday the 18th is still lacklustre with small 4-5ft SW swell and onshore wind – give it a miss. Wednesday and Thursday the 19th-20th are tiny, with swell down around 2-3ft, even though it’s clean. Not much to work with, energy is weak (267 to 441). Friday the 21st sees a return with a 4ft SW swell, clean offshore wind in the morning, and energy building back to 754. It’s a gentle reintroduction – beginner-friendly size but with proper shape.
Then Saturday the 22nd brings a wild card: an 12ft SW swell, but it’s wind-affected by a strong 28 mph WSW breeze, and the period drops to 9 seconds – short-period, sloppy energy. Combined energy is 2027, but with that wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing day than anything else. That passes quickly.
Sunday the 23rd is a standout: 8ft SW swell, period back to 15 seconds, a gentle cross-offshore breeze, and energy at 2753. Clean, powerful, and for experienced surfers only. Monday the 24th is another cracker – 7-8ft SW swell, moderate offshore NW wind at 12-16 mph keeping it glassy, energy around 1900-2000. This is the pick of the second week.
Tuesday the 25th jumps to a solid 13ft SW swell but with short 10-second period and strong offshore wind. It’s big, raw, and for experts only – the energy is very strong at 3228, but that short period makes it more walled-up. Wednesday the 26th holds big 12-13ft SSW swell with energy 4326-5014, but wind is cross-shore to cross-offshore, making it workable only for the brave.
From Thursday the 27th onward, the swell fades gradually with 7ft down to 5ft by the 29th. Saturday the 29th finishes the run nicely: 6ft SW swell in the morning with glassy conditions and a light offshore, then Saturday afternoon turns to glass with 5ft and barely a breath of wind – a smooth sign-off for the less experienced or anyone wanting clean, fun waves.
Crowds at Point Leo are sometimes an issue, so for those standout morning sessions – especially Saturday the 15th and Monday the 24th – get in early. This reef loves SW swell, and we’ve got plenty of it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NE on Tue morning, fresh winds from the N by Wed morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
3367 | 3539 | 2525 | 2372 | 1736 | 1238 | 1048 | 911 | 816 | 1240 | 1155 | 676 | 630 | 477 | 251 | 223 | 214 | 255 | 534 | 206 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | on | cross-on | on | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 00:42AM1.88m | 1:31PM2.09m | 1:43AM1.98m | 2:13PM2.13m | 2:37AM2.04m | 2:51PM2.14m | 3:24AM2.06m | 3:27PM2.12m | 4:08AM2.04m | 4:01PM2.07m | 4:48AM1.99m | 4:33PM1.99m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:51PM0.66m | 7:02AM0.26m | 7:42PM0.47m | 7:55AM0.29m | 8:28PM0.31m | 8:41AM0.35m | 9:10PM0.21m | 9:24AM0.43m | 9:49PM0.16m | 10:03AM0.53m | 10:25PM0.18m | 10:39AM0.64m | 11:01PM0.23m | |||||||
— | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | |
5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 13 |
3367 | 3539 | 2525 | 2372 | 1736 | 1238 | 1048 | 911 | 816 | 1240 | 1155 | 676 | 630 | 477 | 251 | 223 | 214 | 186 | 534 | 178 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 15 | — | SSW 14 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | — | — | SSW 17 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SW 18 | SSW 16 | ESE 4 | ESE 7 | SE 7 | SW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 16 |
270 | — | 217 | 381 | 336 | 104 | — | — | 29 | 57 | 82 | 201 | 51 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 98 | 255 | 172 | 206 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 11 | — | ESE 5 | — | SSW 15 | SW 16 | — | ESE 6 | S 18 | SSW 16 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24 | — | 5 | — | 23 | 10 | — | 4 | 24 | 26 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 4 | SE 5 | ESE 5 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | ESE 5 | — | ESE 5 | — | N 3 | NNW 3 | N 3 | N 3 | N 3 | N 3 |
— | — | — | — | — | 8 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 22 | — | 5 | — | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 35 | 69 | 3 | 30 | 2 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Point Leo Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Point Leo provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Point Leo can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Point Leo surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Point Leo) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Point Leo may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Point Leo is 24 km (15 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











