Peak Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range charts are starting to show some life, but it’s going to be a bit of a waiting game to start. We’ve got a solid window of surf, but we have to be patient and pick the moments when the wind and the swell line up.

The pack is going to be focused on Peak Rock, and it’s a mixed bag to start. We've got some southwest groundswell on the way, but for the first couple of days, it's small and junky. Sunday the 9th, forget it. We've got a weak 4ft southwest swell with a shorter period and a fresh cross-off breeze. The energy is weak, reading only 502-649, and the conditions are just poor. It's not worth getting wet.

Monday the 10th is where things start to get interesting. The swell jumps up to 6ft from the southwest with a much longer period, pushing the energy into moderate territory at 2312-2773. The wind is fresh and offshore from the NNW/NW, which is going to make Peak Rock (Big Island) look pretty damn clean. The scores aren't perfect, but for a Monday, the surf is the best we’ve seen. This is the first real standout of the window. It’s going to be bigger and more powerful, so it’s a step up from the weekend dribble. That offshore wind is the key.

Tuesday the 11th backs off a little to 5ft, but it’s still clean with offshore and cross-off winds. It’s not as strong, but it's rideable. Wednesday the 12th is a bit of a mess. The swell builds to 7-8ft, but the wind gets strong and shifts cross-off. The energy is strong, hitting 8593 on Wednesday afternoon, but the conditions are poor and likely lumpy. I’d sit that one out.

Now, for the second half of the week, we’ve got a big pulse of swell. Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are seeing consistent 10ft southwest swells. The energy readings are in the strong range, hitting up to 6905 on Friday. The problem is the wind. Thursday has a moderate cross-off, which is okay, but Friday turns more cross-shore and builds a bit of chop. This is serious, powerful surf. This is big enough that I’d only be recommending it to the experienced crew. For everyone else, it's a spectator sport. It’s bigger than 8ft, so it’s expert territory.

The weekend then drops off again. Saturday the 15th has 8ft with an onshore wind, which makes for messy conditions. Sunday the 16th is smaller, around 6ft, but has a cross-shore breeze and onshores in the afternoon. Not great.

Here’s where the best of the window actually sits. The first standout was Monday the 10th, but the real gem is on Monday the 17th. The swell is a solid 5ft from the southwest, and the wind is a light, gentle cross-off from the NE. The report even says “expect very good surf conditions.” It’s read at 1290 for energy, which is moderate, but the clean conditions will make it the best combo of size and shape for most surfers. It's the pick of the week.

After that, the energy starts to fade. Tuesday the 18th has a smaller 4ft swell, but again, a light cross-off wind and clean conditions. It’s fun, but smaller. Wednesday the 19th sees similar 4ft waves with a moderate offshore in the afternoon. It’s clean but weak.

The final week is pretty bleak, to be honest. We see the swell drop right out, down to 2ft and 3ft through the 20th and 21st. The energy is weak, less than 500, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-shore and messy. There is a small bump on Saturday the 22nd with a short-period southwest swell, but the period is only 7 seconds, so it will be weak and jumbly. Not worth the paddle.

But, there are two more bright spots. The first is on the Sunday the 23rd, with 5-6ft of southwest swell and a moderate cross-off breeze. It's not perfect, but it’s the most size we’ve seen in a few days. The other is Monday the 24th. The swell is back to 5ft with a gentle offshore wind, and the report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a nice way to close the run.

Water temps? The data doesn't show any major anomaly, so it's likely about average for the time of year, which is always a good thing.

So, to cut it short: Get on it Monday the 10th, but really mark your calendar for Monday the 17th and that final Monday the 24th. Those are your cleanest, most promising windows. Everything else is either too big and messy, or too small and weak. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain, so keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty.

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