Raffs Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a 16-day window on the cards, but don’t rush down just yet. The first few days are a write-off with some serious, messy energy. We’re looking at a solid pulse of SW groundswell hitting, but it’s arriving with a lot of wind and a lot of size, making it pretty much unsurfable for the average punter. Things start to clean up from Friday the 11th, and that’s where the real window opens.

Let’s break it down from the start. Wednesday the 9th is a total no-go. We’re looking at a massive 10 ft to 12 ft SW swell with a 16 to 18-second period, but it’s paired with a 30 km/h SSW wind. The combined energy is through the roof (6921, 7857), but it’s just a washing machine. Forget it.

Thursday the 10th is still a mess. Swell is still 10 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is cross-on or onshore. The energy is still huge (5151, 3802), but the conditions are poor. Not worth the paddle out.

Now, Friday the 11th is where things start to get interesting. The swell drops to a still-juicy 7 ft to 7 ft from the SW, but the key is the wind. First thing in the morning, we get glass conditions. That’s a major positive. The period is a long 14-15 seconds, so this is proper groundswell with shape. The energy is still solid (1924, 2303). This is a standout for experienced surfers. The surf will be clean and powerful, but at 7 ft, it’s pushing into expert territory. Raffs Beach is a beginner spot, but this swell is too big for learners. The offshore wind direction (N) is good, but not perfect for this break’s optimum SSW direction.

Saturday the 12th continues the run. Swell is around 7 ft to 7 ft, still SW, with a long 15-second period. The wind is a light cross-offshore, giving us clean waves. Energy is still strong (2205, 1781). Another solid day for experienced surfers.

Sunday the 13th sees the swell ease off to 4 ft to 5 ft, but the wind swings to a moderate offshore from the N at 25 km/h. The conditions are clean, and the energy is moderate (867, 715). This is a good morning for a more manageable session, but the afternoon is marginal.

Monday the 14th is a drop-off day. The swell fades to under 3 ft, and the energy is weak (310, 240). Not much to write home about.

Then we get a bit of a gap. Tuesday the 15th brings a massive spike back to 12 ft, but with onshore winds. Poor surf.

Wednesday the 16th is another standout. The swell is 8 ft to 8 ft from the SW, with a long 14 to 16-second period. The wind is offshore, light to slight. The energy is strong (2191, 3217), and the conditions are clean. This is for the experienced crew again. The water temp is about 56°F, which is pretty average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The rest of the week into the weekend (17th-20th) sees a mix of clean conditions and moderate swell, but nothing that really jumps out above the Friday the 11th and Wednesday the 16th windows. The energy is moderate (1200-2561), and the wind is mostly cross-off or offshore, so there will be fun waves, but the standout windows are the ones I mentioned.

Sunday the 20th afternoon sees a fresh pulse of 10 ft swell with a 13-second period, but the wind is cross-offshore, making it an option for the brave. The energy is high (2561).

The final few days (21st-24th) are a mix of onshore wind and lumpy, poor surf, with a few marginal windows. The onshore winds kill the quality.

So, the best of the bunch is hands down Friday the 11th (morning) and Wednesday the 16th (afternoon). Both offer clean, powerful, long-period SW groundswell with offshore or glassy winds. The energy is pumping, and the conditions will be pristine. This is for the experienced surfer, though. Beginners should stay clear of these bigger days.

Rusty out.

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