Raffs Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s size up the coming swell window.

We’ve got a solid run of surf coming in, but it kicks off with a bit of a dodgy shoulder. The first real offering is on Wednesday the 12th, but it’s a bit of a messy start. We’re looking at a solid 7ft to 8ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period, pumping a heap of energy into the water (2154-2815). The problem is the wind is a moderate cross or cross-offshore breeze, so it’s not glassy. The water is sitting at 55°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Thursday the 13th sees the swell peak at a solid 10ft, but that’s just too much juice for this spot. The offshore wind on the morning is a beautiful WNW cross-off, but that size is only for the experienced crew. The energy is massive (4482), and it’s a long-period groundswell, which will be lining up nicely but pushing hard.

The standout moment, and I mean the one to circle on the calendar, is Thursday the 27th of August. I know it’s two weeks out, so keep an eye on the charts, but the signs are good. The swell is a clean 4ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period, giving us 879 energy units. The wind is a moderate cross-offshore breeze from the NW, keeping the faces clean. For a break that’s fairly consistent, this is the pick of the bunch. The long period will make for some proper shaped waves and long lulls between sets, making the paddle out easier. A real surfer’s swell.

Before that, we have a long stretch of smaller, cleaner conditions from the 18th through the 21st. Swell drops to around 2ft to 4ft, but the wind goes offshore on the 18th and 19th, making for some clean, weak waves. It’s the kind of small stuff that’s fun on a longboard, but nothing to get too excited about. The energy is weak (215-804), so don’t expect much push.

Then we hit a real dead patch from the 22nd to the 23rd. The swell is tiny (3ft-3ft) and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, creating poor, choppy conditions. Honestly, those days are a write-off. The energy is weak (444-650) and the wind is a fresh breeze, making it lumpy. Not worth the paddle.

The following week starts to look interesting again. On Monday the 24th, we get a new pulse of WSW swell, building from 6ft to a massive 10ft by the afternoon. The energy jumps to 3083, but the period is shorter (10-11 seconds), which is more of a wind swell. The wind is light, which is a bonus, but that 10ft is for experts only. Then Tuesday the 25th brings another solid 8ft SW groundswell with a better 13-14 second period, and a strong offshore N wind. That’s another day for the experienced crew, but the conditions will be clean and powerful. The energy is strong (2474-2923). After that, the swell drops back down to the 4ft-5ft range with offshore winds, making for a nice end to the window.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet for the average surfer is Thursday the 27th of August. It’s a ways off, so keep your fingers crossed, but the forecasted combination of a clean 4ft SW groundswell with a cross-offshore breeze is a beauty. The big days on the 13th and 25th are for the chargers only.

Rusty.

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