Tam O'Shanter Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what the next 16 days are offering up. I’ll be honest with you, this one’s a tough run. The pick of the entire outlook is a very specialised spot, and even then, it has its quirks. Let’s not beat around the bush.

The first decent bit of action doesn't appear until Wednesday the 12th of August, but it comes with significant conditions. Tam O'Shanter is a point break, and it rarely breaks, so when it does, you need to pay attention. The overall pattern for the next two weeks is dominated by small, weak swells and persistent offshore to cross-offshore winds. There's a long gap from the 10th right through to the 12th with nothing worthwhile at all.

Now, the one true standout, and the only one worth planning for, hits on Wednesday the 21st of August. The Friday afternoon session sees a solid NNW swell pushing in at 8 ft. This is going to be a powerful wave, with a combined swell energy of 655 – that’s strong stuff. The swell direction is pretty much straight out of the NNW, which, given the optimum for Tam-O-Shanter is from the NW, is a reasonable fit. The period is short at just 7 seconds, so it won’t have the grunt of a groundswell, but all that energy focused on this point will produce some hefty, fast sections. A wave this size is strictly for the experts; it'll be a heavy one.

Before that, we get a glimpse of something on the morning of Friday the 22nd? No, hold on. The Thursday the 13th through to the 21st is a dust-dry run of tiny waves or onshore chop. There is a brief morning on the 21st offering a 5 ft swell from the NNW with light offshore winds, which would be clean but very ordinary. The real story remains the afternoon of the 21st.

The water temperature at this point, for the first recommendation which is on the morning of the 10th, is 55°F, which is about average for the time of year.

Tam O'Shanter is a point break that will handle the size. The afternoon wind on the 21st is a light cross-on from the NNW, which will put a bit of texture on the face, but it may keep it from getting too blown out. It’s not often this break sees any swell, so if you're an expert and you’re in the area, you know the deal. The crowd status says "sometimes", so you might get a few others on it if the word gets out.

Outside of that, the rest of the outlook is grim. The swell barely nudges over 3 ft for most of the first week, and when it does hit the 7 ft mark on the 12th, it's being savaged by a 22 mph cross-shore wind, making for lumpy, poor surf. The second week is a write-off with tiny, short-period windswell and persistent onshore or cross-onshore conditions. On the 17th and 18th you get glassy conditions, but with a 0.3 ft to 0.7 ft swell, it's barely a ripple.

The morning of the 25th brings a weak 1 ft NW swell with a 13-second period and a clean cross-off wind from the SSE, but again, the energy is a weak 52. It’s just not enough.

To put it bluntly, the 21st of August afternoon is the only game in town for the whole 16 days, and it’s a game for experts only. Grab it if you can, but don't hold your breath for anything else.

Rusty out.

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