Tam O'Shanter Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down for the next 16 days around Tam O'Shanter, a point break that *rarely breaks* – so when it does, you better be on it. But honestly, the outlook is a bit of a tough one. The whole forecast period is a long, drawn-out stretch of mostly poor conditions, with only a couple of small windows that might be worth a look for the patient surfer.

We start off with a real dud. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are a write-off. Saturday morning has a tiny 0.3ft swell from the NW with a 15-second period, but the wind is onshore and the whole thing is a mess. That afternoon the wind picks up to 15 mph from the NNE, and the swell is a weak 3ft with a short 5-second period – total junk. Sunday morning shows a jump in swell to 8ft from the WNW with an 8-second period, and the combined energy is moderate (750), but it’s blowing 25 mph from the WNW, which is a cross-offshore wind. The waves might look clean from the beach, but the cross-off makes it tricky to get in the right spot. The water temp is about average for the time of year, sitting at 57°F.

Monday the 13th sees the swell holding at 10ft from the WNW, but the period is still short at 9 seconds. The wave energy is very strong (1617 in the morning, 1216 in the afternoon), but the wind is howling at 28 mph and swinging cross-shore, creating a nasty cross-chop. That’s messy, dangerous, and not worth paddling out for. For the next several days, we’re lookin’ at a real dry spell. From Tuesday the 14th all the way through to about Sunday the 20th, the surf is either too small, too windy, or just plain poor. There’s a lot of small, weak swells with periods all over the place, and the wind is mostly cross-off or cross-on, but never really aligning for clean waves at this spot.

Now, the one standout that might offer a glimmer of hope is on Monday the 20th of July. The morning shows a 7ft swell from the NW, with an 8-second period and moderate wave energy (458). The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the W at 19 mph. That’s the best wind direction for Tam O'Shanter, and it’s blowin’ offshore. The afternoon session gets even better: the swell bumps up to 8ft from the NW, the energy is stronger (648), and the wind is still a clean cross-off at 16 mph. This is the only day that looks like it could have some clean, rideable waves, but it’s a long period of low activity before we get there. Remember, this is a point break that *rarely breaks*, so it’s already a gamble, but the 20th is the best bet on offer.

Tuesday the 21st of July morning has a smaller 5ft swell from the WNW with a 7-second period and light cross-off wind, but the energy is low (246). That’s a marginal option, but the afternoon turns poor again with cross-shore wind. The rest of the week after that is back to tiny, weak swells and no real energy. The 22nd has glassy conditions in the morning, but the swell is only 0.3ft – flat as a pancake.

To sum it up, the first week is a total washout. The second week has a single, decent-looking window on the 20th, but it’s still a long way out and the break is inconsistent. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on the 20th for a chance at some clean, offshore waves at Tam O'Shanter. Otherwise, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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