Riviera Shorebreak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on the table for Riviera Shorebreak. I’ll keep it real with you—this is a lean stretch, with a whole lot of small, messy surf and one distant glimmer of hope.

For the first part of this forecast, through Friday the 11th and into the weekend, it’s ankle-biters. Swell is running between 2ft and 3ft, with a long period but weak energy, mostly in the 200s and 300s (combined energy of all swells directed here). The mornings have that offshore WSW breeze, which keeps the surface clean, but there’s just no push. You’ll spend more time sitting than riding.

Then it goes flat-ish. From Sunday the 13th through to about the 19th, there’s barely a wave worth the walk. Swell stays under 3ft, and the long periods make it close out at a beach break like this. A few mornings have light wind, but the overall vibe is “stay home.” That’s a solid week of nothing, and it’s not unusual for this area.

Now, the one bright spot. Starting around Tuesday the 16th, the swell starts to nudge up, and the energy finally gets into the 600s and 700s (combined energy of all swells directed here). But the real window is Sunday the 20th into Monday the 21st. We’ve got a consistent 3ft of SW swell, with a 17 to 19 second period. The energy on Sunday morning hits 945 (combined energy of all swells directed here)—the biggest pulse of the entire forecast. With light winds, this could actually be worth getting out of bed for. The long period will make it a bit straight at a beach break, so it won’t be perfect, and it’s not for beginners once the sets push over 5ft. But for the crew who know the break, this is the pick of the bunch. It’s still about a week and a half out, so treat it as promising, not a done deal.

After that, it’s back to small, choppy slop, with cross-onshore winds kicking up around the 24th and the surf dropping off into nothing by the 26th.

Water temp is a story right now: it’s at 90°, which is over 4° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a big deal—you’ll be comfortable in just boardshorts.

So here’s the deal: no great surf on offer right now. The first week is a wash. The only real hope is that pulse around the 20th, and even that’s not a sure thing. It’s a waiting game, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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