Riviera Shorebreak Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a tough stretch for Riviera Shorebreak. We’ve got a 16-day window but not a single standout session that’ll have you calling in sick. The first real chance to paddle out is Sunday morning the 13th, and from there we’re looking at a long, frustrating run of marginal-to-poor surf with only a few fleeting moments of decency.

The overall pattern is small, clean-ish but weak. Swell hangs around the 2ft to 4ft mark, mostly out of the SW, which is the optimum direction for this spot, so that’s a positive. Periods are solidly in the groundswell range (12 to 19 seconds), meaning longer lulls between sets but decent shape when they arrive – though with this small size, don’t expect much push. The combined wave energy sits between moderate and strong, starting at 213 and climbing into the 500–800 range later on, so there’s energy in the water, just not much height to work with.

Water temp is a whopping 89°F, which is 4°F warmer than usual for mid-September – that’s way above average, so you’ll be surfing in a warm bath.

Let’s break it down day by day. Sunday morning the 13th kicks things off with a 2ft SW swell, 13-second period, light WSW wind blowing onshore – it’s clean enough but small. Not much happening. By Monday afternoon the 14th, we get a brief glimmer: still 2ft SW swell but the wind goes glassy (5 km/h from the WSW), and the score bumps up. That’s your best bet in the first week – clean, tiny, but rideable.

From Tuesday the 15th through to Thursday the 19th, the swell slowly builds to 3ft–4ft, but the wind swings cross-onshore or onshore, making things choppy or at best “light cross-onshore with small wind ripples.” The energy climbs (356, 483, 737, 607), but the quality is never there. Thursday the 17th afternoon is particularly rough with 12 mph WNW winds.

Saturday morning the 20th sees the swell energy jump to 822 with 3ft SW, 19-second period – that’s some serious push, but the wind is cross-onshore and the surf is marginal. It’s the biggest energy reading of the whole run, but it’s wasted on messy conditions.

Things actually look a little better in the second week. Monday morning the 21st and Tuesday morning the 22nd both offer 4ft SW swell with 16–17 second periods, and while the wind is light and cross-onshore, the surf quality is still only marginal. Then on Wednesday morning the 23rd, a risk of thunderstorms brings in a 9 mph cross-offshore wind from the east, with 3ft SW swell – that’s clean, and probably the pick of the entire forecast. Not a standout by any means, but if you’re desperate, that’s the morning to try.

After that, it fades. From Thursday the 24th onward, the swell drops to 2ft–3ft, periods shorten to 12–16 seconds, and the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore with moderate breezes. The energy falls to 245–381, and conditions are poor to marginal. Sunday the 27th offers a final 2ft SW, 17-second pulse, but it’s not enough to get excited about.

Bottom line: this is a rare-breaks spot, and it’s living up to that name. There’s no true standout session – Monday afternoon the 14th with glassy conditions and Wednesday morning the 23rd with clean offshore flow are the best on offer, but both are tiny. For beginners, nothing here is too big (all under 5ft), so it’s safe, but don’t expect much fun. The consistent small-to-medium energy and clean-ish windows might actually suit a kite better than a paddle board through most of this period.

Keep an eye on the forecasts – it tends not to stay this flat forever.

Rusty.

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