San Jose Rivermouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell ya about this stretch we got comin' up at San Jose Rivermouth. It's gonna be a bit of a mixed bag, so don't go getting your hopes up too early.

First thing you gotta know: the water is sitting at a toasty 86°, which is a whopping 8° warmer than usual for this time of year. That's not just a little different, that's seriously unusual. You're gonna be sweating in your wettie, if you even wear one.

Alright, so right now, it's a slow start. Through the first half of July, the surf is pretty weak. For the weekend of the 12th and into the week, we've got some small, long-period SSW groundswell bumping in around 3 ft to 4 ft, but the wind is mostly onshore or cross-shore, making it a mess. The combined swell energy is moderate, reading between 537 and 796 (moderate wave energy), but the conditions just aren't there. That Friday morning the 10th looks clean with a light onshore and a 4 ft SSW swell at 15 seconds, but the raw data says "poor surf conditions," so I wouldn't expect much. You might score a shaky wave Saturday afternoon the 11th if you're desperate, with a 4 ft SSW swell and a light cross-offshore breeze, but it's marginal at best.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Sunday the 14th all the way through to the morning of Thursday the 17th, it's pretty much flat or junk. We're talking tiny 2 ft to 3 ft swells, poor wind, and combined energy dropping into the low hundreds. There's nothing worth paddling out for. A few days in there, like the morning of the 16th, show a 3 ft SE swell with a short 9-second period, but the energy is weak (286) and conditions are poor. You'd be better off staying home. That Thursday afternoon the 16th is a special kind of bad with a 2 ft, 19-second SW groundswell and a gentle cross-onshore chop.

Now, here's where it gets interesting for the brave. Toward the end of July, the swell starts to build. The weekend of the 18th and 19th sees the swell climb, but the wind is still a problem—onshore and gusty, keeping things messy. The energy is building though, hitting between 869 and 1225 (moderate to strong wave energy) on the 19th.

Hold on for the real standout window. Friday the 24th afternoon is your best bet, hands down. The swell is a proper 8 ft from the SSW, and we get a clean, gusty offshore wind from the NW. The combined swell energy is strong at 2443 (strong wave energy). This is "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and with a period of 13 seconds, it'll have some good shape. But listen, at 8 ft, this is expert territory only. If you're not comfortable in big, powerful surf, stay on the beach and watch.

Then, Saturday the 25th is the absolute standout morning. We've got an 8 ft SW swell, and the wind goes absolutely glassy—zero knots. Combined energy is still up there at 2019 (strong wave energy). The conditions are described as "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" and "glassy." That is as good as it gets for a big swell. The wave quality will be pristine. Just remember, this is still an 8 ft wave, so it's for experts only. The afternoon holds similar quality with a clean cross-offshore breeze.

Because it's a rivermouth setup, that long-period groundswell (12-13 seconds) will line up nicely, giving you some proper walls. The optimum swell direction from the guidance is from the S, so this SSW swell is a great match.

Crowds at San Jose Rivermouth can get busy often, so if that Saturday morning glass-off looks as good as I think it will, you better be there early or be ready to share.

So, to boil it down: the first two weeks are mostly a write-off. But that final weekend—Friday the 24th afternoon and especially Saturday the 25th—is where you want to be, if you've got the skills. It's a long way out, so keep an eye on the charts, but that Saturday lookin' glassy with a solid groundswell is the kind of thing dreams are made of.

Stay safe, and I'll see you out there.

Rusty

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