Penhale Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Penhale are going to test your patience. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf ahead, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel, so don’t go putting the boards away just yet.

For the first several days, it’s a write-off. From Wednesday the 9th through to the start of next week, nearly every session is looking at cross-onshore winds and choppy, lumpy conditions. Sure, there’s some size on offer – we’ll see nearly 5ft on Wednesday morning with a 9-second period and a combined energy of 380, and then again nearly 5ft on Friday morning with similar period and a touch more energy at 375 – but it’s all messy. The wind’s just ruining it. We do get a slight drop in the breeze on Friday afternoon, down to 6 mph, but that light cross-onshore still leaves it bumpy. Don’t get too excited about the bigger stuff, either. Saturday afternoon brings around 6ft of swell, but it’s a lumpy 8-second windswell and onshore, so it’ll be a close-out mess. Honestly, this stretch is more about getting a surf fix in the car park than it is in the water.

There’s a glimmer of hope on Sunday the 13th morning – the wind drops right off to 6 mph and the swell is a clean 4ft at 10 seconds, but it’s still cross-onshore and the model calls it marginal at best. Not worth getting out of bed early for, to be honest. The beginning of next week, Monday and Tuesday, is even smaller, with waves hanging around the 3ft mark. The wind does swing offshore for a bit on Tuesday afternoon, but the energy is weak as – the combined energy sits at 194 – and the waves are only really surfable, not good.

Now, here’s where it starts to get interesting. Wednesday the 16th gets big, but it’s not good. The morning sees over 7ft of swell, but with a howling 19 mph cross-offshore wind creating clean but powerful conditions, and the afternoon jumps up to a serious 10ft with a long 10-second period and a combined energy of 1690. That’s a lot of water moving around. That size is getting serious, close to expert-only territory, and with the strong onshore wind in the afternoon, it’ll be a stormy, dangerous mess. I’d give that a wide berth unless you’re a masochist with a death wish.

After that blow, the surf dips again for the rest of the week. The wind stays unfavourable, and we’re back to small, junky waves. It’s not until Saturday the 19th that we finally get a proper window. The morning is looking like the first genuine standout. We’ve got a light 6 mph cross-offshore breeze, clean conditions, and a solid 4ft of swell at 11 seconds with a combined energy of 317. That’s a proper groundswell, and it’ll have some push and shape to it. This is your chance for a clean session on a point or reef if you can find one, just keep in mind the bigger sets might tend to straighten out a bit on the beach breaks. Still, this is the pick of the first week by a long way.

The next couple of days, Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st, are clean with offshore winds, but the swell drops off. We’re down to 2ft to 3ft – really small and grovelly, just high-tide waves for a log. Definitely not worth making a special trip for.

And now, for the real gold. Wednesday the 23rd is the standout of the entire forecast. The morning sees a clean 3ft groundswell from the WNW with a very long 13-second period, and it’s glassy with a gentle offshore. Then it just turns on. The afternoon is where it’s at: the swell builds to a solid 8ft, still from the WNW, the period settles at a solid 11 seconds, and the wind is a moderate offshore. The combined energy is a massive 1284 – strong, powerful, and clean. This is a proper swell. This will be big, but not obscene; it’s going to be powerful and lined up, especially on the points and reefs. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so you won’t need a full winter suit just yet. This is the one to circle on the calendar, the one that makes all the crap beforehand worth it. Just remember, it’s over a week away, so don’t get too locked in, but it has all the makings of a proper day.

So, there you have it. Plenty of poor days ahead, but a clear, clean pickup coming next week. Saturday the 19th is your first chance for a proper surf, and Wednesday the 23rd looks like it could be a proper classic. Keep an eye on the charts, but I’d be planning the Wednesday session now.

Rusty.

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