Number Threes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Number Threes. It’s a solid, exposed reef break for advanced surfers only, and it’s usually consistent. With the water sitting at 81°, that’s about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual to report there.

Right off the bat, Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are a write-off. Small, weak swell and a fresh cross-off breeze keep it messy. We’re looking at a bit of a slow start, but don’t get disheartened.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are still pretty marginal. The swell is small, around 5 to 5 feet from the east-northeast, with a short period of 7 seconds, so not much punch. The wind stays fresh and cross-off, keeping the surface clean enough to look at, but the energy is just not there yet.

Things start to get interesting from Wednesday the 12th into Thursday the 13th. A longer period swell from the south and south-southeast creeps in, around 3 to 4 feet, but with periods stretching to 15 to 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, meaning longer waits between sets, but the waves will have a lot more shape and push. The combined wave energy is climbing into the moderate range, hitting 900 to 1000 (1088). The wind stays a steady cross-off, so it’ll be clean. It’s not huge, but for a reef like this, those long lines will be worth paddling out for. Thursday morning is the peak of this window with the best score we’ll see in the first week.

Now, hold on to your board for the second week. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th see a big jump in size. The swell pumps up to 8 to 12 feet from the east-northeast, period is still short at 8 to 9 seconds, so it’ll be a lot of raw, chunky energy. The combined energy goes ballistic, hitting over 2000 to 2700 (2762). That’s strong to very strong wave energy. This is big, powerful surf. The wind is fresh to strong from the northeast and east-northeast, holding cross-off, which will keep the face reasonably clean. This is expert territory, no doubt. This Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th are the standout days for the whole outlook. If you’re advanced and hungry, that’s your window.

Sunday the 16th turns nasty. Heavy rain and a near gale from the north-northwest shift it to offshore, but at 34 mph, it’s near gale offshore and very hard to paddle into. The swell is still 12 feet, but the conditions will be dangerous and ugly. Leave it.

Monday the 17th sees the wind ease to a gentle cross-on from the southeast, which chops it up a bit. Swell drops to 7 feet. Not great, but Monday afternoon the wind swings east cross-off and becomes moderate, cleaning it up for marginal 6 feet waves.

From Tuesday the 18th through to the end of the period on Sunday the 23rd, it’s a slow fade. Swell drops from 6 feet down to 2 feet, with periods mostly short at 6 to 8 seconds. The wind stays cross-off from the east-northeast, keeping it clean, but the energy is weak and the waves are small. There are a few sessions around Tuesday the 18th afternoon and Friday the 21st that might offer a little something, but nothing to get excited about. The run of poor to marginal surf stretches for several days here, so don’t expect much.

Bottom line: The first week is a slow burner, with Thursday the 13th morning being the best of a modest bunch. The real standout is Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th – big, powerful, clean cross-off surf for experts only. After that, it fizzles out.

- Rusty

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