Number Threes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day window, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a mixed bag at Number Threes, but there are a couple of moments that’ll get the blood pumping.

The overall pattern is a long stretch of onshore or cross-off trade winds, but the real problem is the quality. There’s a lot of energy in the water, but the conditions are holding it back. The combined energy is moderate to strong much of the time, sometimes hitting 1429 or even 3372, but the wind is a constant battle. The water temp is sitting at 81°F with a tiny anomaly of 0.4°F, so that’s pretty average for this time of year – nothing to worry about.

We kick off Friday, September 4th, with a 4ft easterly swell at 14 seconds, but that 30 km/h ENE cross-off is a bit of a fight. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast,” and with a score of 2, it’s a tough call. The energy is there (1429), but it’s not coming together for a real session.

The first real standout doesn’t pop until Monday, September 7th, in the morning. That’s when you’ll see a 7ft SW groundswell at 14 seconds, a nice long period, and the combined energy jumps to 3372. The wind is a cross-shore from the east at 20 km/h, which is workable. This is a reef break, and long-period SW swells are what this spot is built for. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” but the score climbs to 3, and the energy is solid. It’s the best of a rough bunch, but don’t expect perfection.

That afternoon, forget it – the wind swings to a 25 km/h cross-onshore, the swell jumps to 8ft with a 15-second period, and the energy is huge (4835), but it’s a “poor surf conditions” call with a zero. That’s a messy, blown-out mess.

Tuesday through to the end of the first week is a write-off – onshore winds, storms, and poor conditions. There’s a gap from Monday afternoon right through to the morning of Monday, September 14th, where the only surf is marginal or poor. That’s a solid 7-day stretch of nothing worth paddling out for.

Then, on Monday, September 14th in the morning, we get a spark. The wind drops to 15 km/h from the east, still cross-off, and the swell is a 7ft easterly with a short 7-second period. The combined energy is moderate (643), but the wave comment is “expect very good surf conditions” and the score is a 3. That’s a rare bright spot, but that short period means it’ll be a bit fat and sectiony. Not a standout, but a surfable window.

The next real standout, the one you want to circle on your calendar, is Saturday, September 19th. The afternoon session is the pick of the entire forecast. The wind goes glassy – a slight 5 km/h cross-off from the ENE. The swell is 7ft from the ENE at 9 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (1180), but the wave comment is “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” with a score of 4. That’s the best call we get. The crowd profile says “often,” so expect a few heads out there, but with the wind that light, Number Threes is going to be clean, lined up, and powerful. The morning of that same Saturday is also decent – 8ft ENE swell, 9 seconds, 5 km/h cross-shore, and a score of 3 – but the afternoon is the one.

So, the bottom line: the best on offer is the afternoon of Saturday, September 19th. The long stretches in between are frustrating, but forecasts can change. Keep your eyes on that date.

Rusty.

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