Number Threes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The outlook for Number Threes is a proper tale of two halves. We got some clean, rideable surf right now, but the back half of this forecast is looking wild, with strong winds and a lot of junky, short-period swell. There’s one morning that’s a real standout, so let’s break it down.

Right now, we’re seeing a long-period groundswell from the south, breaking at about 3 feet. The water temp is 81°, which is pretty normal for the time of year. We’ve got a moderate cross-offshore breeze, and while the swell energy is moderate at 656, that 14-second period is giving it some serious push. It’s a little small, but it’s clean, and the reef is going to be working.

The next couple of days stay small and clean, but the energy fades. Tuesday and Wednesday aren't really worth the paddle, as the swell stays under 3 feet and the wind is a bit of a nuisance. The energy readings drop below 400, which is weak. You’ll be scratching for anything you can get.

Now, here’s the standout. Thursday the 20th is your shot. The wind drops right off to a light breeze, and we see a clean, cross-off shore. The swell bumps up just a touch to around 2 feet, but the period is a solid 18 seconds. This is proper groundswell. The combined energy is still moderate at 279 and 322, but that long period will groom the reef into some nice, lined-up walls. This is the cleanest, most inviting surf of the whole forecast. It’s not big, but the quality is going to be there. This is your morning.

After that, the long-period south swell dies off, and we get a few days of weak, short-period SW windswell and an increasingly cross-shore wind. It gets messier. That Friday the 21st is still small, but the wind is more straight cross, so it’ll be a bit bumpy. Then the weekend, Saturday the 22nd, has a moderate breeze but still looks clean, although the swell is losing its shape.

Here’s where it turns bad. From Sunday the 23rd onward, the trades start to blow hard, at 25 mph or more. The swell direction flips to the ENE, which is a terrible angle for this spot, and the period drops to 7-8 seconds. That’s pure windswash, and while the surf size goes up – from 5-6 feet Sunday to over 10 feet by the 28th and 29th – it’s going to be an absolute mess. That’s when it gets big, but with that much wind and that short a period, Number Threes will be blown out and chaotic.

That whole second week is a write-off for clean surf. The energy readings get strong, up in the four-figure range on the 26th and 27th, but it’s all wind-driven chop. Honestly, with 25+ mph winds and bumpy, short-period surf, this setup starts to look more interesting for the kite-surfing crew than for us paddle surfers.

So, to sum it up: Get on it now, and especially Thursday morning the 20th, for the cleanest, best-shaped waves. After the weekend, it’s a waiting game until the winds ease off, and the following week looks like a right-off.

Rusty.

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