Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right. Rusty here, looking at what’s on the cards for us at Nobbys Reef over the next couple of weeks. Let’s be straight with each other – the start won’t get you out of bed. You’ve got a few days of barely-there dribble before we see something that actually looks like surf.

Tuesday the 28th of July kicks off flat and ordinary. A weak 2ft southerly swell with a short period of 8 seconds and combined energy of just 68 – that’s the definition of lifeless. The morning starts clean enough with a light 15 km/h offshore wind from the NW, but the ocean’s just not holding any power, you’d be scratching for anything worth paddling out for. By afternoon, the wind picks up to 20 km/h from the NW, and the swell drops back to 1.3ft. Poor conditions all round.

Wednesday the 29th is even worse. Morning delivers a pathetic 0.7ft southerly swell with an absurdly long 18-second period and combined energy of 31 – it’s just no use, like trying to surf a lake. The wind bumps up to 25 km/h from the WNW, so you’ve got texture on the surface with nothing underneath. Afternoon sees the swell drop to 0.3ft, combined energy of 8, cross-off wind from the W. Honestly, there is nothing here. That’s three days with no real surf to speak of.

Then, on Thursday the 30th of July, the energy finally arrives. The morning has a proper 6ft southerly swell pushing in with an 11-second period and combined energy of 721 (moderate to strong). The wind is light, 10 km/h from the W – cross-off – and it’s clean. That’s the first session that looks genuinely good. The water’s sitting at 18.1°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. By afternoon, the wind swings to SSE at 10 km/h and goes cross-on, and the swell drops to 5ft. The conditions fall apart, so make the most of that morning.

Friday the 31st of July is another solid morning. You’ve got 5.6ft of southerly swell, period 11 seconds, combined energy of 666. Light cross-off wind from the WSW at 10 km/h. That’s clean, lined-up, and very surfable. The afternoon gets messy as the wind switches to S at 20 km/h – cross-on and choppy.

Now, the standout of the entire run for quality, in my book, is Sunday the 2nd of August. The morning comes in with a nice 5.6ft SSE swell, but the period ticks up to a very long 13 seconds – groundswell stuff – and the combined energy is 981, which is strong. The wind is light offshore from the NW at 15 km/h, so it’s clean. That’s the pick of the lot for clean, powerful waves. Just be aware that a long-period SSE swell like this at a reef can make it a bit technical – it’ll wrap in nicely and hold its shape, but the sets will have some punch and they’ll be spaced out. It’s an advanced break here anyway. Crowds are sometimes an issue, so keep that in mind.

Saturday the 1st of August is a little sloppier, with a 4.6ft southerly swell and cross winds from the SW at 10 km/h. It’s marginal. Not the same class as Sunday.

After Sunday’s peak, things get a bit rough. Monday the 3rd of August brings a strong 30 km/h SSW cross-on wind, smashing up the 3.6ft SE swell. That’s poor and lumpy, not worth it. Tuesday the 4th of August sees the swell jump up to 8.2ft from the south with a short 8-second period, but the wind is cross from the SSW at 15 km/h, and the combined energy is 963. It’s marginal, and a bit too big for a clean, user-friendly wave. Afternoon hits 10ft with a strong cross-on wind from the south at 25 km/h – too big,

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