Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let me break it down for you.

It’s going to be a slow start around here, with a real painful stretch of flatness and slop before we start to see shape coming back. The good news is, as we head into the second week, there’s some real potential lining up, especially for the more experienced crew.

The immediate outlook is pretty grim. Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th are a write-off with tiny, weak swell and moderate offshore winds… the sort of day you’d only bother if you’re desperate. Tuesday the 14th is even flatter – don’t even bother checking the tide. Weak energy (11 to 14) and barely a ripple.

We start to see a pulse on Wednesday the 15th, but it’s not one to get excited about. A solid 8ft southerly swell arrives, but it’s short period (8 seconds) and the wind is a messy cross-onshore from the SSW at 15–18 mph. The combined energy sits at 870 to 1198 (moderate to strong), but it’s gonna be lumpy, choppy, and just plain ugly. That’s a beach-break mess, and honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Thursday the 16th through Saturday the 18th is a bit better, but still marginal. We’ve got reasonable 6ft to 8ft swell from the SSE, but the wind is onshore or light variable, and the period is short. The score is never more than 1 out of 10. It’s surfable, but only just.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday the 19th is the first real standout. The swell is 8ft from the east, period 11 seconds, and the combined energy cranks up to 1409 (strong). By the afternoon, the wind drops to almost nothing out of the SE (3 mph), glassy as it gets. That’s a clean, powerful groundswell day. The catch is that this is Nobbys Reef – an advanced reef break that’s inconsistent and exposed to the SE, which is the optimum swell direction. The water temp is 66°F, which is about average for the time of year. It’s also a spot that can get crowded, so expect some company. This is the best session on offer, and it’s for the experts only – 8ft at a reef is no joke.

Monday the 20th is still good, with 6ft east swell and clean NW offshore winds in the morning. Energy is 695 (moderate), and the score is a 3. This is a solid, clean option for the slightly smaller swell rider. Tuesday the 21st brings a smaller 4ft east swell, still clean in the morning, but the wind goes sour by the afternoon.

The rest of the week into the 27th is a slow fade. The swell drops to waist-high (3ft) and the wind patterns are mixed, with plenty of cross-on and onshore conditions. Nothing worth getting excited about. The last week is mostly poor, with a few marginal days where the tide might help.

So, bottom line: Sunday the 19th is the standout – strong, long-period east swell, glassy conditions, at Nobbys Reef. It’s an expert-only day, but it’s the cleanest, most powerful surf in the whole 16-day window. Monday the 20th is a solid backup for the slightly smaller crew.

Rusty.

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