Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks. The only spot on the radar is Nobbys Reef, and it’s a real mixed bag. We’ve got a few decent windows, but there are also some long stretches of flatness or foul weather to work around.

The first proper swell that’s worth paddling out for hits on Friday morning, July 24th. We’re lookin’ at a 5-foot S swell with a 10-second period, but the wind is swingin’ cross from the SW, which is gonna leave a bit of chop on the face. The wave energy is chunky (416) but the conditions aren’t quite there. Things improve later that arvo, but the score is still low.

The standout session for the first week is without a doubt Saturday morning, July 25th. The swell holds at 5 feet from the S, period stretches to 11 seconds, and the wind is a clean offshore from the WNW – that’s the ticket. The energy is pumping (677) and the forecast says expect very good surf. That’s your best bet. The afternoon cleans up too with a lighter NNW breeze, but the swell drops a little.

Sunday morning, July 26th, is also a solid option with 5 feet of S swell, 11-second period, and a cross-offshore breeze from the W. The energy is still strong (500) and the conditions are clean. The water temp is 65°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothin’ to worry about there.

After Sunday, the surf drops off quickly. Monday and Tuesday are small and weak, with waves under 3 feet and energy down in the 100s. Wednesday brings a weird long-period 16-second swell, but it’s tiny at 1 feet from the SSE, so nothin’ to get excited about.

Then we hit a big gap. From Wednesday afternoon through to the end of the week, it’s a write-off – onshore winds, rain, and messy, choppy conditions. The swell tries to build again on the 30th, but the wind is rubbish.

Now, for the second week, things get wild. From Sunday, August 2nd, a massive pulse of S swell arrives. We’re talkin’ 10 feet to 13 feet, with periods up to 13 seconds, and energy readings in the thousands (3383, 5769, 3780). That’s serious power. But here’s the problem – for a reef break like Nobbys, waves over 8 feet are only for the experts. The wind is also a nightmare for most of this period, with strong onshore and cross-shore breezes creating a mess. There are a few moments where the wind is glassy or light, like on Friday morning, August 7th, when the wind drops to glassy with a 10-foot SE swell. But the guidance warns that the swell is too big for this break. The reef will be closing out and dangerous. Honestly, this big swell window looks more like a kite-surfing show than a paddle-in session.

Through all this, the break is exposed to the south swell, which is the optimum direction, and it’s a reef setup, so it can handle the long-period groundswells. But the crowds are a possibility here – it’s a spot that can get busy when it’s off. The inconsistency is also a factor; it doesn’t pump every day.

So, the bottom line: your absolute best chance for a clean, fun, safe surf is Saturday morning, July 25th. After that, it’s a long wait for a window, and the second week is just too big and messy for most.

Rusty

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