Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about the next couple of weeks. The forecast is pretty lean for the most part, with a few small windows where things might line up. The first week has a couple of mornings that are worth a look, but you’ll be working for small waves. The second week has one standout that’s worth circling on the calendar, even if it’s further out and less certain.

The first real chance to get wet is this Saturday morning, August 8th. Nobbys Reef is showing tiny 1ft waves from the SSE, with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is glassy out of the WNW, which is a big positive – it’ll be clean and smooth. The combined energy is weak at 69, so it’s not going to be a wave of the year, but it’s surfable. Water temp is 64°, which is about a degree and a half colder than average for this time of year, so you’ll want a slightly thicker suit or a hood. It’s inconsistent, so you’ll be sitting there waiting, but it’s a start.

Sunday morning, August 9th, is a similar story. Waves are still small at 2ft from the E, with a 9-second period. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNW, which should keep it clean. Energy is weak at 92. It’s still inconsistent, but it's a better window than the afternoon. The afternoon turns glassy, but the swell stays small.

Monday, August 10th, is where things get interesting, but not in a good way for paddle surfing. The swell jumps to 4ft from the ENE, with a 9-second period, and the energy is moderate at 270. But the wind is a strong offshore from the NW at 25 mph. That makes it clean, sure, but it’s going to be a battle to get out – hard to paddle into and blown out. The afternoon eases off a bit, but it’s still strong offshore. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest.

The rest of the first week is pretty poor. Tuesday and Wednesday are small, weak, and chopped up with onshore or cross-off winds. Thursday, August 13th, has a late pulse of swell. The morning is 5ft from the S, but the afternoon jumps to 7ft from the S with a 12-second period and a strong energy reading of 1067. That’s a big jump, but the wind is onshore from the SSE, so it’ll be messy. This is expert-level swell height, and it’s not going to be pretty.

Friday, August 14th, is the pick of the first week. The morning has 4ft of S swell with a 9-second period and a light cross-offshore wind from the WNW. Energy is moderate at 290. The conditions are clean, and it’s the best combo of size and wind we’ve seen. It’s still inconsistent, but this is the morning to try for. The afternoon turns onshore and worsens.

The weekend of August 15th and 16th is a write-off – small, weak, and onshore. The start of the next week, August 17th and 18th, is similar: small, weak, and messy. You’re looking at a gap of several days with no real recommendations here.

Now, for the standout. Thursday, August 20th, is the one to circle. The swell is small at 1ft, but the period is a very long 13 seconds from the SE. The wind is glassy from the SSW. This is a proper groundswell, and at Nobbys Reef, a reef break, that long period is going to produce some clean, well-shaped lines. The energy is weak at 70, so it’s not big, but the quality will be there. This is a long-range call, so it’s promising but less certain – but if it holds, this is the best morning of the whole period. The crowds are possible, so you might have some company.

The period after that, around August 22nd and 23rd, has some size (up to 5ft) but the period is short at 7 seconds, and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. It’s just not going to be great.

So, to sum it up: the first week has a couple of small, clean windows on Saturday and Sunday mornings, with Friday morning being the best of the bunch. The second week’s standout is Thursday, August 20th, with that long-period, glassy morning. It’s going to be a waiting game, but there’s a little something on the table.

Rusty.

Read more