Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s cookin’ for Nobbys Reef.

Water temp is about 66°F, which is right on the money for this time of year – nothing weird going on.

The forecast starts off a little slow. Saturday morning the 11th has a clean 4ft SE swell with light offshore wind, energy is moderate at 375. It’s surfable, but not a classic. The afternoon cleans up more with a longer period 11 second ESE swell at 3ft, still light offshore, but the size is dropping.

Sunday the 12th gets a wind bump, a moderate offshore keeps things clean, but the swell is fading fast – down to 3ft and then 2ft. Energy drops from 134 to 65. It’s a real fade-out.

From Monday the 13th through Tuesday the 14th, it’s flat. Swell under 2ft, energy in the low twenties. Not worth paddling.

Wednesday the 15th sees a spike in size, but it’s messy. A 6ft S swell with a fresh cross-onshore wind, energy jumps to 582, but it’s lumpy. By the afternoon, it’s 10ft of S swell at 11 seconds, with a huge energy of 1885, but still cross-onshore. That’s a lot of power with poor conditions – more of a kiteboarding setup than a paddle session.

Thursday the 16th through Friday the 17th is still on the messy side, with cross-onshore winds and lumpy conditions. The swell hangs around 5ft to 7ft, but the quality is marginal.

Now, here’s the good stuff. Sunday the 19th is a standout. The morning looks fantastic – a clean 5ft E swell, 10 second period, with a light offshore wind from the NW. Energy is a solid 568. That’s the pick of the first week. The break is a reef, so it’ll love that period, and with offshore winds, it’ll be peeling. Heads up, it’s an inconsistent spot and for advanced surfers only, so don’t expect a crowd of beginners, but it can get a few.

Monday the 20th keeps the good run. Morning and afternoon both have 4ft to 4ft E swell, clean with gentle offshore winds. Energy in the 300s. Very consistent, user-friendly.

The real big dog is Wednesday the 22nd. The morning has a solid 4ft ESE swell, 11 second period, clean with a light cross-offshore breeze, energy at 916. That’s the best mix of size and conditions. The afternoon, however, is a 10ft S swell with a huge energy of 3425 – but the forecast says it’s too big for the break. Stay away.

Thursday the 23rd is another one for the experienced crew. The morning has 8ft S swell, 11 second period, clean with cross-offshore winds, energy at 1675. The afternoon goes glassy, 7ft S swell, 10 second period, energy 1028. Both are excellent for experts, but the size is well over 8ft, so it’s not for the faint-hearted.

The final weekend, the 25th and 26th, fades out again. The 26th does have a clean morning with a 4ft S swell, light offshore, but it’s a small, short-period swell. Not a standout.

So, if you want the best of the 16-day window, Sunday the 19th is the easy pick for a good, clean, driveable day for intermediate to advanced surfers. For the experts, Thursday the 23rd is the big, powerful, clean day to chase.

Rusty.

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