Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here again, and after checking the long-range for Nobbys Reef, I gotta be honest – this is a frustrating stretch. We get one real opportunity, and then it’s a whole lot of nothing. The first few days are all about size, but it’s the wrong kind of size – way too much for this place.

Wednesday the 16th starts with a 3.0m south swell at a 10-second interval, and the wave energy is strong, sitting at 1698. But the wind is howling cross-shore at 35 km/h, so it’s lumpy and chaotic. It builds even more through the afternoon, hitting 3.5m with energy at 2254, and the wind goes cross-onshore. Too big. Thursday the 17th is similar – still pushing 3.0m and the energy is pumping at 3559, but again, it’s just too much. The morning has a cross breeze, and it’s not clean. The afternoon drops to 2.3m, but the period shortens to 9 seconds and it’s choppy. Not the time to be paddling out.

Now, the one to save your energy for: Friday morning, the 18th. The swell has dropped to a friendly 1.3m from the south with a 9-second period, and the wind is offshore from the northwest at just 10 km/h. It’s clean, glassy, and the reef will be working proper. The energy is only moderate at 387, but that’s fine – this is where the lines will hold up and you can actually get some decent turns. This is easily the best session on offer. But get out there early because by the afternoon, the wind goes cross-shore and chops it up.

After that, the bottom falls out. The rest of the weekend is tiny – Saturday the 19th has 0.8m, Sunday morning the 20th is glassy but only 0.9m, and the energy is down around 197. It’s surfable, but barely. Those long 17-19 second period swells at the end of the day are just going to close out the reef. Monday the 21st has a light offshore and a clean 0.7m, but it’s marginal. The energy is weak at 117.

Then things get ugly. From Tuesday the 22nd right through the rest of the window, it’s mostly poor. There’s a bit of a bump on the 22nd with 2-2.0m from the southeast, but the period is a short 7 seconds and the wind is onshore and fresh. Rain, slop, and onshore winds – the whole run from the 23rd to the 27th is a total write-off. The energy readings are mostly weak, and the swell direction has too much east in it, which is wrong for this break. It’s not even worth looking at the water.

There’s one more faint hope on Monday morning, the 28th of September – about ten days out, so it’s a long-range bet. The forecast shows 1.6m from the northeast with a 7-second period, and it’s clean with a cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate at 350. It might be fun, but that short period and northerly angle are a real question mark for this reef. Still, it’s the only other thing that flashes a bit of promise. But by the afternoon and the first of October, it’s back to onshore wind and junk.

So for all you surfers, mark your board for Friday the 18th. The water temp is about average for this time of year, around 65 degrees, so you won’t need a thick suit. But for everyone else, this is a lean stretch. The swell is either too big and messy, or too small and weak. This reef needs a clean, moderate south swell with decent period, and we only get that for one morning. The rest of it is a battle with onshore winds and tired, short-period waves. Not much else to say – it’s one of those fortnights where you gotta be picky or you’ll be frustrated.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty.

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