
Surf Forecasts:
Nobbys Reef surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 19 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period, ESE swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 12s period, ESE swell with 3,907 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Nobbys Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Nobbys Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days.
Alright, Rusty here, let me break it down for you.
It’s going to be a slow start around here, with a real painful stretch of flatness and slop before we start to see shape coming back. The good news is, as we head into the second week, there’s some real potential lining up, especially for the more experienced crew.
The immediate outlook is pretty grim. Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th are a write-off with tiny, weak swell and moderate offshore winds… the sort of day you’d only bother if you’re desperate. Tuesday the 14th is even flatter – don’t even bother checking the tide. Weak energy (11 to 14) and barely a ripple.
We start to see a pulse on Wednesday the 15th, but it’s not one to get excited about. A solid 8ft southerly swell arrives, but it’s short period (8 seconds) and the wind is a messy cross-onshore from the SSW at 15–18 mph. The combined energy sits at 870 to 1198 (moderate to strong), but it’s gonna be lumpy, choppy, and just plain ugly. That’s a beach-break mess, and honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
Thursday the 16th through Saturday the 18th is a bit better, but still marginal. We’ve got reasonable 6ft to 8ft swell from the SSE, but the wind is onshore or light variable, and the period is short. The score is never more than 1 out of 10. It’s surfable, but only just.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday the 19th is the first real standout. The swell is 8ft from the east, period 11 seconds, and the combined energy cranks up to 1409 (strong). By the afternoon, the wind drops to almost nothing out of the SE (3 mph), glassy as it gets. That’s a clean, powerful groundswell day. The catch is that this is Nobbys Reef – an advanced reef break that’s inconsistent and exposed to the SE, which is the optimum swell direction. The water temp is 66°F, which is about average for the time of year. It’s also a spot that can get crowded, so expect some company. This is the best session on offer, and it’s for the experts only – 8ft at a reef is no joke.
Monday the 20th is still good, with 6ft east swell and clean NW offshore winds in the morning. Energy is 695 (moderate), and the score is a 3. This is a solid, clean option for the slightly smaller swell rider. Tuesday the 21st brings a smaller 4ft east swell, still clean in the morning, but the wind goes sour by the afternoon.
The rest of the week into the 27th is a slow fade. The swell drops to waist-high (3ft) and the wind patterns are mixed, with plenty of cross-on and onshore conditions. Nothing worth getting excited about. The last week is mostly poor, with a few marginal days where the tide might help.
So, bottom line: Sunday the 19th is the standout – strong, long-period east swell, glassy conditions, at Nobbys Reef. It’s an expert-only day, but it’s the cleanest, most powerful surf in the whole 16-day window. Monday the 20th is a solid backup for the slightly smaller crew.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Wed morning. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed night, min 14°C on Wed afternoon). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sun 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | SSW 7 | S 12 | S 11 | S 21 | S 16 | S 11 | S 7 | S 10 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | SE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
58 | 32 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 240 | 2505 | 1102 | 711 | 455 | 532 | 645 | 450 | 699 | 1117 | 2200 | 3629 | 3150 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 6:28PM1.83m | 7:17AM1.23m | 7:23PM1.91m | 8:13AM1.29m | 8:15PM1.95m | 9:04AM1.33m | 9:04PM1.94m | 9:52AM1.37m | 9:52PM1.87m | 10:39AM1.38m | 10:39PM1.76m | 11:26AM1.38m | 11:24PM1.61m | 12:13PM1.37m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:21AM0.22m | 12:44PM0.39m | 2:14AM0.14m | 1:41PM0.37m | 3:03AM0.09m | 2:35PM0.36m | 3:50AM0.09m | 3:28PM0.36m | 4:35AM0.12m | 4:20PM0.40m | 5:17AM0.18m | 5:12PM0.45m | 5:58AM0.26m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | |
5:01 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | 5:06 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Feels °C | 10 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | SSW 7 | S 7 | S 11 | S 7 | S 7 | S 11 | S 10 | — | — | S 15 | ESE 9 | S 12 | S 18 | ESE 8 | SSE 21 | SSE 19 | S 19 | S 18 | SSE 17 |
58 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 35 | — | — | 4 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 450 | 44 | 37 | 28 | 25 | 59 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | SSW 7 | ESE 8 | S 12 | SE 8 | S 11 | S 16 | — | E 10 | — | — | — | S 13 | — | S 18 | S 11 | S 17 | S 19 | S 19 | — | S 18 |
11 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5 | — | 2 | — | — | — | 4 | — | 6 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 28 | — | 7 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | SE 8 | S 11 | ESE 8 | E 10 | S 21 | S 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 18 | S 22 | — | — | — | — |
3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 9 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 3 | W 3 | WNW 3 | NW 3 | WNW 3 | WNW 3 | NW 3 | W 3 | S 7 | S 10 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | SE 8 | ESE 9 | S 6 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 |
8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 240 | 2505 | 1102 | 711 | 455 | 532 | 645 | 48 | 699 | 1117 | 2200 | 3629 | 3150 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 85 | 107 | 33 | 33 | 174 | 174 | 453 | 107 | 125 | 259 | 259 | 259 | 221 | 185 | 185 | 221 | 185 | 112 | 112 | 90 | 44 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Nobbys Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Nobbys Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Nobbys Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Nobbys Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Nobbys Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Nobbys Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Nobbys Reef, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Newcastle which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 31 km (19 miles) away, Port Stephens, Cessnock and Central Coast.











