
Surf Forecasts:
Nobbys Reef surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, SSE swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 10s period, S swell with 2,806 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Nobbys Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Nobbys Reef in the next 16 days are 4.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 6s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 16th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Nobbys Reef has in store for us. It’s a tricky one to call, being an exposed reef break that’s inconsistent, so we need the right conditions to line up. This forecast has a lot of waiting in it, with only a couple of real windows where it all comes together.
We start with a poor run. Friday the 11th is a write-off; the swell is up around 6 ft from the SSE with a crosswind and moderate combined wave energy (576), making for a messy, lumpy scene. It’s not worth a paddle.
Saturday the 12th morning is our first standout. The swell has dropped right back to a tiny 2 ft but it’s from the SSE with an incredible 19-second period – that’s proper long-period groundswell energy. The wind is glassy, absolutely dead calm. The water temp is 65°, which is about average for the time of year. This is a clean, glassy reef setup, but with that tiny size and long period, it’s going to be a long wait between sets. The combined energy is moderate (469), so there’s power in the water, but it’s a game for a log or a keen eye. Saturday afternoon the seabreeze chops it up, so that morning session is the one.
We then hit a long, quiet stretch. Sunday the 13th through to Tuesday the 15th sees small, weak swells, mostly cross or onshore winds, and combined energy dropping well below 200. Not worth suiting up for. Wednesday the 16th is a big warning sign: a massive 13 ft swell from the S hits, but it’s accompanied by strong 28 mph cross-onshore winds and a combined energy reading of 2806. That’s a washing machine, not surf. The 17th is still blown out and too big.
After the wind drops, we get another clean window. Friday the 18th morning is glassy again, with a 2 ft SSE groundswell and that same 19-second pulse. The combined energy is a healthy 512. It’s tiny but absolutely pristine. Saturday the 19th morning brings a nice change: an offshore NW breeze and a 2 ft S swell at 15 seconds. That’s clean, lined-up reef waves. The combined energy (349) suggests it’s not just a dribble either.
Sunday the 20th morning is small and clean, but wave heights are dropping. Then things go flat and poor again for several days, through to the 22nd.
Now, for the end of the period, Wednesday the 23rd morning is a big deal but with a major caveat. We’ve got a 10 ft S swell on the way, with a 10-second period and combined energy reading of 1873. The wind is light NNE, so it’ll be cross-offshore and clean. But for Nobbys Reef, 10 ft is expert-only territory, and the forecast even flags it as potentially too big for the break. The energy is massive, but the paddle-out will be a mission and the wave size is serious. This one is for the experienced crew only and even then, it will be a handful. Thursday the 24th is still chunky, with 6 ft SSE swell, but the wind turns cross and the period drops, so it’s less appealing.
So, if you’re after the best of a quiet period, get on the glassy Saturday the 12th morning for the long-period clean lines. For a bit more size and offshore conditions, Saturday the 19th morning is your next best bet, but it’s still small. The big 10 ft swell on the 23rd is the only real size on offer, but it is not for the faint of heart.
Stay patient and keep an eye on the sky.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Sun morning, min 13°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the NE by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Tue night. Warm (max 24°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon night, strong winds from the SSW by Wed morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 19 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 11 | S 10 | S 12 | S 11 | NE 6 | SSE 10 | SSE 4 | S 7 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
563 | 418 | 307 | 207 | 268 | 160 | 110 | 143 | 102 | 132 | 85 | 82 | 31 | 14 | 511 | 1822 | 2806 | 2224 | 1182 | 951 | 457 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 8:28PM1.67m | 8:56AM1.53m | 9:08PM1.58m | 9:33AM1.54m | 9:47PM1.46m | 10:10AM1.53m | 10:25PM1.32m | 10:48AM1.50m | 11:03PM1.19m | 11:27AM1.46m | 11:44PM1.07m | 12:11PM1.41m | 00:35AM0.98m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:14PM0.21m | 2:47AM0.12m | 2:59PM0.20m | 3:21AM0.17m | 3:43PM0.24m | 3:53AM0.24m | 4:26PM0.31m | 4:24AM0.32m | 5:12PM0.39m | 4:55AM0.41m | 6:01PM0.48m | 5:28AM0.51m | 6:59PM0.55m | ||||||||
5:58 | — | — | 5:56 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | |
— | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 14 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | S 9 | S 11 | ENE 6 | S 12 | S 11 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 6 | E 14 | — | E 13 | S 18 | S 18 | SSE 8 |
563 | 418 | 307 | 181 | 268 | 160 | 110 | 143 | 51 | 132 | 85 | 44 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 3 | 6 | 25 | 457 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | E 14 | SSE 19 | S 13 | SSE 18 | SSE 20 | ENE 5 | SSE 17 | S 10 | ENE 6 | E 12 | S 10 | SSE 10 | E 14 | E 14 | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | E 13 | S 19 |
4 | 4 | 34 | 81 | 182 | 131 | 7 | 29 | 102 | 10 | 3 | 50 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 21 | E 9 | E 13 | SSE 19 | E 14 | E 13 | SSE 18 | ENE 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 16 | E 12 | E 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 13 |
9 | 2 | 4 | 207 | 15 | 3 | 61 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | ENE 4 | NE 4 | ENE 4 | NE 6 | — | ENE 5 | NE 6 | — | SSE 4 | S 7 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 14 | 16 | 43 | 83 | — | 40 | 82 | — | 14 | 511 | 1822 | 2806 | 2224 | 1182 | 951 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 346 | 0 | 0 | 508 | 1 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 70 | 212 | 259 | 738 | 831 | 293 | 125 | 125 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Nobbys Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Nobbys Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Nobbys Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Nobbys Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Nobbys Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Nobbys Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Nobbys Reef, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Newcastle which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 31 km (19 miles) away, Port Stephens, Cessnock and Central Coast.










