Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you. The next week or so is a bit of a mixed bag for Nobbys Reef, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The water temp is sitting at 66°F, which is pretty much dead average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The week kicks off with some size, but the conditions are a mess. Tuesday the 7th has a solid 12ft swell from the SE, with a long 11-second period and strong wave energy (2586). The problem is that 30 km/h southerly is on it, making it cross-on and lumpy. It’s not worth paddling out for – honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Wednesday the 8th is still bumpy. The swell drops a bit to 8ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, both from the SE with an 11-second period, but cross-on winds keep it choppy. The energy is still moderate to strong (1786 and 1479), but the quality just isn’t there.

Thursday the 9th sees the swell ease to 6ft in the morning, with a 10-second period and moderate energy (775). The wind is a light cross-shore from the SSW at 5 km/h, which is a slight improvement but still not clean. Afternoon goes onshore from the SE, and the surf is marginal.

Now, here’s a little window. Friday the 10th morning, you’ve got a clean 5ft SE swell, 9-second period, with a light cross-offshore from the WSW at 10 km/h. The energy is moderate (419). It’s not huge, but it’s *clean*. That’s your first honest look at a wave.

Saturday the 11th is even better. The morning has a 4ft SE swell, 9-second period, gentle offshore from the NW at 15 km/h – that’s clean. The energy is moderate (305). The afternoon cleans up even more with a 3ft ESE swell, 11-second period, and a moderate offshore from the NW. It’s small but fun.

Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th drop off significantly. The swell is under 3ft, energy is weak (below 100), and while the wind is offshore or cross-offshore, there’s just not enough wave to get excited about. You’re looking at a flat spell.

The surf returns properly on Wednesday the 15th morning. The swell picks up to 4ft from the S, with a long 12-second period and moderate energy (480). The wind is a light cross-offshore from the W at 5 km/h – clean conditions. This is a good solid session.

Here’s the standout. Thursday the 16th morning is the pick of the entire outlook. You’ve got a 6ft S swell, a long 12-second period, and wave energy is strong (1769). The wind is a light cross-offshore from the WSW at 10 km/h, keeping it clean. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – a solid groundswell with shape. If you’re an advanced surfer, set your alarm for Thursday morning. The afternoon gets a little onshore and drops to 7ft with a 13-second period, but the morning window is gold.

Friday the 17th morning holds up nicely. A 5ft SSE swell, 11-second period, moderate energy (634), and a light cross-offshore from the WNW – clean again. Another good day.

From Saturday the 18th through to Wednesday the 22nd, the swell stays in the 4ft to 5ft range, with offshore winds for many sessions, but the energy drops off, and the quality becomes more marginal. The last couple of days go a bit wonky with strong winds and weak surf.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a write-off with poor conditions. The real action is from Wednesday the 15th morning through Friday the 17th morning, with Thursday the 16th morning being the absolute best. Nobbys Reef is an advanced spot, and it’s inconsistent, so you need to time it right. The crowds can be an issue sometimes – get in early.

– Rusty

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