Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got to be straight with you – this outlook for the next two weeks is a bit of a mixed bag, with a whole lot of average and a couple of bright spots if you’re patient.

The first week is pretty grim. We’ve got a solid swell from the south on Wednesday the 15th, with waves hitting 6ft and a short 7-second period, but the wind is howling from the SSW at 19 mph, making it a messy cross-shore chop. The combined energy is weak (310) and the water temp is sitting at 66°, which is about average for this time of year. It’s just not worth paddling out. The swell bumps up to 8ft on Wednesday afternoon, but the wind gets stronger and cross-onshore, so it’s a total write-off. Thursday and Friday are similar stories – a bit of swell, but the wind is all over the place, and the periods are short. Saturday and Sunday see the swell dropping and the wind finally turning onshore, but the periods are still short, and the energy is only moderate (339–998). The surf is poor, and the wind is ruining any chance of a clean wave.

We hit a bit of a lull from Monday the 21st through to Friday the 25th. The swell drops right off – under 4ft – and the energy is weak (102–348). There’s a glimmer on Tuesday morning the 21st with a clean 4ft easterly swell and a light offshore wind from the NNW, making for a clean session, but it’s small and inconsistent. The same goes for Wednesday and Thursday the 22nd and 23rd – clean but tiny. Honestly, not much to get excited about.

Now, the standout comes on Sunday the 26th of July. This is the one. Nobbys Reef is firing early with a solid 7ft south swell, a 10-second period, and a light offshore wind from the west. The combined energy is strong (1764), and the conditions are clean. This is a reef break, so that long-period groundswell will hold up well, but with 7ft, it’s for the experienced crew – beginners, stay out of the water. The crowds are sometimes an issue here, so you might have some company. The water temp is still about average, but trust me, this is the best session on offer. The afternoon cleans up too, but it gets smaller and onshore, so hit the morning.

Monday the 27th is also worth a mention – a 3ft south swell with a very long 13-second period and light offshore wind from the WSW. The energy is moderate (666), and it’s clean again. This is a classic reef wave, so that long period will give you some nice, lined-up waves. It’s a bit smaller, but still a solid option for a relaxed session.

The rest of the forecast after that drops off into messy, weak swells with poor wind. Tuesday the 28th has a 6ft south swell, but the wind is cross-shore and choppy, and the energy is moderate (714). By Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th, the swell is tiny and the wind is still messy.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. The second week has a couple of promising days, with Sunday the 26th being the absolute standout for experienced surfers, and Monday the 27th a good backup. Get out there early if you can.

Rusty.

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