Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch is going to test your patience before it gives you a couple of decent windows. We’ve got a long, flat-ish start with not much on offer, then things start moving around the middle of next week. The first real surf recommendation doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 13th, so that’s about a week of waiting through small, messy, or just plain weak conditions. Don’t get too excited about the early days—there’s a reason they’re not on the list.

Right now, from Wednesday the 5th through the weekend, we’re looking at tiny surf, mostly under 2 feet, with a weak combined energy reading (42-119). The swell is mostly out of the east or south, but it’s short-period stuff, just not doing anything. The wind is a mixed bag—some glassy patches on Wednesday afternoon and Saturday morning, but otherwise it’s cross-off or cross-on, and it’s just not worth the paddle. The water temp is 64°, which is about 1° cooler than normal for this time of year—pretty much average, nothing to write home about.

Monday the 10th sees a bit more push, with a 3 foot east-northeast swell and energy up to 182, but the wind is howling offshore at 25 mph. That makes it clean but damn hard to get into. Not a good trade-off. Tuesday the 11th is a step up, with a 4 foot south swell and energy jumping to 349. The morning is still a bit iffy, but Tuesday afternoon looks better—offshore wind at 12 mph, clean, and finally something to paddle into. That’s the first real glimmer of hope.

Then it starts to get interesting. Wednesday the 13th morning is where you want to be. The swell jumps to a solid 7 feet from the south, with a combined energy of 705—that’s strong, no doubt. The wind is light and cross-off, so it’s going to be clean. This is the standout of the whole run. Nobbys Reef (looks like we’re in the Newcastle area based on the region) is going to be handling that south groundswell well. It’s a reef break, exposed to the swell, and it’s inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for sets, but when they come, they’ll have some punch. This is advanced territory at 7 feet—not for beginners.

The afternoon on the 13th drops a bit to 5 feet, and the wind turns cross-on, so it gets messier. Thursday the 14th morning is still decent at 5 feet with energy at 510, but the wind is cross-shore, so it’s not as clean. After that, the wind turns onshore and the quality drops off. The swell stays in that 5 to 6 foot range through the 15th and 16th, but it’s mostly cross-on or onshore, with showers around on Sunday. Not great.

The 17th and 18th see the swell back down to 3 to 5 feet, but the wind is all over the place—onshore and messy. Not your day. Then, on Thursday the 20th, there’s another little window. The morning is glassy, calm wind, with a 3 foot southeast swell and energy at 253. It’s not the size of the 13th, but it’s clean and rideable. That’s your second-best option, but it’s a far cry from that Wednesday morning.

So, bottom line: don’t waste your time until Tuesday the 11th afternoon. The big one is Wednesday the 13th morning—that’s the one to plan around. The 20th morning is a backup, but it’s smaller. The rest is either too small, too windy, or too messy. This is a proper reef, so the long-period south swell will be better here than on a beach break, but the inconsistency is part of the deal. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath for anything else.

Rusty.

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