Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a pretty quiet run ahead for the most part, with a few little windows of opportunity if you’re keen. The water is sitting at 65°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The main spot on the radar is Nobbys Reef, an advanced reef break that’s exposed to the south swell. It’s inconsistent, so you can’t always bank on it, but when it lines up, it’s got some punch.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start. The first few days are pretty ordinary. On Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd, we’re looking at small, surfable waves but nothing to write home about. Swell is around 2ft to 3ft from the south, with a period of 10 to 11 seconds. The wind is mostly cross-off or offshore, so it’s clean, but the energy is weak (combined energy around 102 to 189). It’s more of a paddle-and-stretch session than a proper surf.

Thursday the 3rd drops off even more, with poor surf conditions and swell dropping to 2ft. Not worth the wetsuit.

Then, on Friday the 4th, we get a little glimmer. The morning looks glassy, with the swell bumping up to 3ft from the south, period 11 seconds, and the combined energy climbing to 254. That’s moderate energy, and with glassy conditions, it’s the best we’ve seen so far. The afternoon turns cross-shore and a bit choppy, so get in early. This is your first real standout – not a big day, but clean and fun for the advanced crew.

Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are a mix of offshore and onshore winds, with swell around 2ft to 4ft. The energy is still weak to moderate (62 to 230), but the wind keeps it from being a classic. Sunday morning has onshore wind, so it’s a bit messy.

Monday the 7th has some cross-shore wind and a 4ft south swell, but the energy is picking up (337), and it’s marginal. Not the best.

Looking further ahead, we get a notable spike on Wednesday the 9th, but it’s a messy one. Swell hits 8ft from the south, but with a strong cross-onshore wind at 19 mph, it’s lumpy and poor quality. The energy is very strong (1386), but for a reef break, that’s more of a washing machine than a wave. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The big one, and the true standout of the whole forecast, is Thursday the 10th. The morning looks glassy, with a solid 10ft swell from the SSE, and a very long period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is massive at 2977. This is a proper groundswell, and it’s going to be a powerful, heavy wave at Nobbys Reef. However, it’s predicted to be too big for this break, which is a real shame. It’s only for the absolute experts, and even then, it’s going to be a wild ride. This is a long-range standout, so keep an eye on it, but don’t get your hopes up too much.

After that, the swell drops back down. Friday the 11th has some 5ft swell, but it’s messy with cross-onshore wind. The rest of the second week fades away into small, weak, and often onshore conditions. Saturday the 12th has a bit of offshore wind with 2ft swell, but it’s short period and weak energy.

From the 13th onward, it’s pretty much a write-off. Swell is tiny, periods are short, and the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore. The energy is weak (31 to 83), and the conditions are poor. Not much to get excited about, lads.

So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Friday the 4th for a clean, glassy morning session. If you’re an expert and have a death wish, maybe check Thursday the 10th, but it’s a big one and likely too much for the reef. The rest is mostly small and messy.

Rusty.

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