Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day crew, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming in over the next sixteen days for Nobbys Reef. The early window is looking pretty lean, with a lot of onshore junk and not much to get excited about, but there’s a proper pulse of swell and clean conditions brewing in the second week that could be the real story.

First up, Saturday 29 August is a write-off – poor surf, onshore SSE wind at 9 mph, and a meagre 3.9 ft swell at 10 seconds from the SSE. Combined wave energy is only 319 – weak and messy. The afternoon gets a bit bigger at 5.2 ft but it’s still onshore and marginal. Best to sit this one out.

Sunday 30 August is the first glimmer. The morning glass off with NW offshore wind at 3 mph, clean as a whistle, the swell dropping to 3.0 ft from the SE at 10 seconds – not big, but the conditions will make it look fun. Combined energy of 237 means it’s light, but glassy conditions are gold. It’s small, but for a highly exposed reef break like Nobbys (Nobbys Reef), it’s a goer for the advanced crew. The afternoon turns cross-on and drops off. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so get in early.

Monday 31 August – another glassy morning with zero wind – dreamy. Swell is 3.3 ft from the south at 8 seconds, combined energy 288. That short period is a bit junky, but the mirror surface will tidy it up. The afternoon gets ruined by a strong cross-onshore ENE breeze at 12 mph and a weird 1.6 ft, 15-second groundswell that’ll just straighten out on the reef – not worth it.

Tuesday 01 September is a nice little run. Both morning and afternoon have clean, cross-off winds (NNW and NNE, 9 mph). Swell is 2.6-3.0 ft from the south, period around 10-11 seconds, combined energy 204-229. It’s not big, but the wave shape will be decent and it’ll be clean all day. Good chance for a few peelers.

The rest of that first week slides off. From Wednesday 02 September through Friday 04 September, we’re looking at small, ordinary surf – 1.3 ft to 2.3 ft with combined energy dropping below 100. Winds are offshore or cross-off, but there’s just not enough energy to get the reef working properly.

Saturday 05 September – the morning has a very small 1.0 ft SSE swell but with a very long 17-second period, combined energy 111. That long period groundswell suits a point or reef like Nobbys, but it’s tiny. The afternoon picks up a bit to 1.6 ft at 11 seconds with offshore NW wind at 12 mph, clean but still weak.

Sunday 06 September is a blowout – strong offshore wind at 22 mph and tiny 1.3 ft swell. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on that morning.

Monday 07 September is completely cooked – onshore, rain, and small bumpy surf.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday 08 September starts looking a bit weird. The morning has a 5.9 ft SSW swell with a short 6-second period, combined energy 286 – that’s a choppy, lumpy windswell, not good. But the afternoon of Tuesday 08 September is a standout. There’s an 11.5 ft swell from the south at 10 seconds, combined energy a massive 2287 – that is strong, powerful swell. However, it’s too big for this break – Nobbys Reef can’t handle 11.5 ft, it’s only for experts if they’re brave enough, and even then it’s more dangerous than fun. Light cross-onshore wind at 6 mph with rain – but the size is the problem.

Wednesday 09 September – still big, with 7.9 ft to 8.2 ft SSE swell at 10 seconds, combined energy around 1151 – moderate to strong. Winds are cross-off or cross, and conditions are clean-ish, but the swell is getting into the “too big for beginners” territory and is pushing expert-only at the top end. It’s rideable for the right crew but a bit of a handful.

Thursday 10 September is blown out by strong cross and cross-onshore winds at 22 mph, with 6.6 ft to 7.2 ft lumpy swell. Not worth it.

Now the real pick: Friday 11 September. Morning has a clean 5.6 ft from the SSE at 10 seconds, combined energy 590 – moderate energy, solid and

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