Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’re looking at a pretty quiet start to the outlook for Nobbys Reef, with a long stretch of poor conditions to kick things off. Nothing worth paddling out for until the second week, so patience is the name of the game. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first hint of something surfable arrives on the morning of Monday 20 July. It’s still marginal – just 5ft of E swell with a moderate combined energy reading of 565, and a light cross-onshore wind. Not exactly firing, but at least it’s not a total write-off. Conditions stay pretty ordinary through to Wednesday morning 22 July, with small, clean waves around 3ft from the ENE, combined energy down to 177. It’s surfable but nothing to get excited about.

The real turnaround comes on the morning of Thursday 30 July. We’ve got a solid 6ft of S swell, period bumping up to 11 seconds (that’s a nice groundswell pulse), and combined energy of 757 – moderate to strong energy. The wind is offshore out of the NW, light at 9 mph, so expect clean, lined-up waves. This is the standout of the whole outlook. Nobbys Reef can handle this direction, and with offshore conditions, it’s going to be a great session for advanced surfers. The swell is a bit too big for beginners, but if you’ve got the skills, this is the morning to be out there. The southerly direction matches the optimum swell direction of SE nicely, so the reef should be working well. Thursday afternoon keeps the clean theme with a lighter 5ft of S swell and light NNW offshore – another good window, but the morning is the pick.

Before that, on Tuesday 21 July, there’s a brief clean window in the morning with 4ft ENE swell, a period of 10 seconds, and light offshore wind from the NNW. Combined energy is 360 – moderate – so it’s small but clean. It’s not the biggest, but if you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your best early option. Crowds at Nobbys can show up sometimes, so don’t expect solitude.

There’s a long gap from the start right through to Monday 20 July with no real recommendations – about five days of poor to marginal surf. After Thursday 30 July, the swell drops off again into the weekend with tiny waves and messy winds. The following Monday 27 July and Tuesday 28 July bring a fresh S swell pulse, but the wind is cross or cross-on, so it’s choppy and not worth the effort.

So to wrap it up: the whole 16-day window is a slow burn. The one true standout is Thursday 30 July morning – that’s your best shot. It’s a promise, but a good one. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because a week out things can shift.

Rusty.

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