
Surf Forecasts:
Nobbys Reef surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, S swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, S swell with 2,759 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Nobbys Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 3.0m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-shore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Nobbys Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Friday (Sep 18) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, listen up. I’m not gonna lie to you, it’s looking bleak out there for a while. The surf at Nobbys Reef is about to go on a serious vacation, and we’re stuck with the leftovers. The next couple of weeks are filled with onshores, lumpy junk, and waves with no heart. It’s a hard watch, but it’ll turn around. It always does.
It starts this Tuesday, the 15th, with a tiny 1-foot south swell. There’s a light offshore in the morning cleaning it up, but the energy is zilch. It’s flat. Then, things get stupid on Wednesday the 16th. The swell jumps to 11 feet, but a fresh south-southwest cross-onshore wind turns it into a complete stormy mess. The energy is huge, but it’s pure chaos.
Thursday morning the 17th is the only real look we get. The swell eases to 10 feet, and the wind goes light and variable. But let’s be real – 10 feet at Nobbys Reef is a freight train. It’s way too big and unruly. Only the crazy crew would even think about it, and even then, it’s a risk. The afternoon drops to 7 feet but the wind goes onshore, so that’s done.
Then, on Friday morning, the 18th, we finally get something human. The swell drops to 4-5 feet from the south-southeast, and we have a clean, light offshore. It’s not big, but the surface will be glassy. That’s our best bet for a real surf.
But just as quick, it’s gone. The rest of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday see the swell fizzle out to almost nothing. The wind goes onshore and the surface gets chopped. There’s nothing worth the paddle.
We get another spike on Monday the 22nd with a 7-foot south-southeast swell, but it’s got a short, crappy period and is accompanied by rain and a cross-onshore wind. It’s a grovelly mess. Tuesday is more of the same, just smaller.
After that, the wind goes northeast. The swell drops to 4 feet, but the period is terrible – down in the 6-second range. That’s just pure windswell. It’s bumpy and weak, with a fresh cross-shore breeze ruining any chance of a clean face.
The single exception is Saturday morning, the 26th. The wind goes light and cross-offshore. The swell is 4 feet from the east-northeast with a 7-second period. It’ll be clean, but it’s still short-period and weak. It’s a grovel, but it might be the only other time you’d get wet.
The last week is just onshores and rain. The energy is gone, the wind is howling, and there’s nothing on the horizon.
So, look. Your only real chances are an early session on the 18th for some clean, though small, waves, or maybe a dawn paddle on the 26th if you’re desperate. Nothing is going to be stellar. The winds are against us, and the swell just isn’t doing anything right. For everyone else, it’s a good time to check your wax stash and wait it out.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Warm (max 23°C on Tue morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the S on Tue night, light winds from the NW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 27°C on Sun morning, min 15°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | SE 4 | S 7 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | SSE 8 | SSE 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 15 | 688 | 2039 | 2438 | 2291 | 1684 | 721 | 427 | 311 | 281 | 170 | 145 | 120 | 83 | 61 | 43 | 28 | 30 | 137 | 422 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-off | off | cross | cross-off | off | cross-on | off | off | cross | off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:48AM1.50m | 11:03PM1.19m | 11:27AM1.46m | 11:44PM1.07m | 12:11PM1.41m | 00:35AM0.98m | 1:02PM1.36m | 1:45AM0.92m | 2:03PM1.34m | 3:16AM0.92m | 3:09PM1.34m | 4:36AM0.99m | 4:11PM1.38m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:12PM0.39m | 4:55AM0.41m | 6:01PM0.48m | 5:28AM0.51m | 6:59PM0.55m | 6:08AM0.59m | 8:08PM0.59m | 7:03AM0.67m | 9:25PM0.58m | 8:16AM0.71m | 10:30PM0.52m | 9:34AM0.71m | 11:17PM0.45m | ||||||||
5:52 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | |
— | 5:44 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | |
mm | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 23 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 27 | 26 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 17 |
Feels °C | 19 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 6 | S 9 | E 14 | E 14 | — | E 13 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | E 11 | S 16 |
14 | 15 | 4 | 4 | — | 3 | 1249 | 721 | 427 | 311 | 281 | 170 | 145 | 120 | 83 | 61 | 43 | 28 | 30 | 2 | 5 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | ENE 6 | E 14 | — | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | S 19 | SSE 19 | SSE 18 | S 16 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | S 17 | S 18 | ENE 4 | SSE 16 | NE 4 | E 11 |
17 | 3 | 16 | — | — | — | 3 | 28 | 7 | 69 | 178 | 132 | 58 | 97 | 27 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 2 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | E 14 | — | — | — | — | S 19 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | E 11 | E 11 | E 9 | SSE 17 | NE 5 | E 11 | — |
3 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 2 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 3 | SE 4 | S 7 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | — | — | — | E 3 | WNW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | NW 2 | SSW 4 | SSE 8 | SSE 9 |
1 | 15 | 688 | 2039 | 2438 | 2291 | 1684 | — | — | — | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 137 | 422 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 1376 | 293 | 739 | 831 | 96 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 0 | 9 | 293 | 125 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Nobbys Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Nobbys Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Nobbys Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Nobbys Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Nobbys Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Nobbys Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Nobbys Reef, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Newcastle which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 31 km (19 miles) away, Port Stephens, Cessnock and Central Coast.










