Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab ya board. It’s Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for ya. The short version? This stretch is a story of two extremes, with a whole lot of flat nothing in between. We’re looking at a 16-day window that starts with a big ol’ dud, gets a burst of life right at the end, but also throws some serious size your way that’s gonna test your nerve.

Right off the bat, for the first week, it’s looking pretty grim around Nobbys Reef. The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be wanting that hood and booties. The combined swell energy is weak, around 337, but it’s being chopped up by a fresh cross-shore breeze. That’s a “poor surf conditions” call if I’ve ever seen one.

We've got a stretch from the 20th through the 25th where the swell just bottoms out. We’re talking knee-high slop at best, with energy readings dipping as low as 8 or 20. Honestly, for a few days there, it’s not even worth dragging the board out of the car. A couple of windows—like the morning of the 23rd and the afternoon of the 24th—will have a glassy surface, and the swell is just slightly up, but it's still gonna be too small to get any real speed. It’s a blank run for sure.

The 27th of August afternoon sees a pulse of new energy (353), but the direction is all wrong on it, coming from the south with a cross-onshore wind, making it messy. Then the 28th morning finally gives us our first real taste of hope. The wind swings around to a light offshore from the NNW, the energy jumps to 229, and we get that "expect good surf conditions" call. Swell will be about 3ft from the south at 10 seconds. It’s clean and glassy, but it’s still a bit small and the period isn’t long enough to really light the reef up.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, and a little wild. After that, the ocean just goes dead quiet again for a few days. Then, on the 30th of August, the bottom falls out of the barometer as a big southerly swell starts to fill in. But the wind stays onshore, so it's junk. The calm before the storm.

The main event kicks off on Monday the 31st of August. A proper, powerful groundswell turns up. The energy readings go through the roof—upwards of 2000, then 4822, and then over 4300 on September 1st. The swell heights are predicted at 12ft with a period of 13-14 seconds. That is a storm swell, and it's packing a ton of energy, as you can see from those huge numbers.

But here’s the thing, the forecast is essentially saying it’s too big for Nobbys. The combined energy is strong to very strong, but the quality is just not there. It’s going to be a washing machine, with strong cross-shore winds and a mess of currents. This is not the day to learn. From the 31st of August through to the 2nd of September, the call is "predicted to be too big for this break." The waves are over 8ft, which is expert territory only, and even then, the conditions are going to be frantic. This looks more interesting for the kite surfing crew than for us paddle surfers, honestly.

The storm finally eases after that, with the swell dropping to 7ft on the 3rd of September, but it’s still cross-shore and lumpy, and the energy, while still moderate at 1165, just won't be organised enough for a clean session. It’s a proper end to a long stretch of mediocrity, capped off by a swell that’s all power and no finesse.

So, what’s the takeaway? If you want a clean one, the only true standout in the whole 16 days is the early session on the 28th of August. Get up early, paddle out when it's glassy, and enjoy the small, clean lines. As for the massive swell at the end of the month, that’s for the brave, or maybe a spectator sport. It’s promising that the ocean finally woke up, but it went a little overboard. Stay safe, and I’ll see you out there.

Rusty

Read more