Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Right, let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for our stretch. It’s a bit of a slow grind for a while, but mark my words, there’s a proper pulse of energy on the horizon that’ll get the heart rate up. We’re looking at a long period of small, messy stuff before the ocean finally switches on.

The first week is pretty much a write-off for any decent surf. We’ve got a lot of days with onshore winds and junky, weak waves. The water's sitting at 63°F, which is a touch colder than usual for this time of year—nothing crazy, but you’ll want the hood or a good thick suit. The swell energy is weak, mostly under 300 in the brackets, and the periods are short, so it’s just lumpy and uninviting. There’s no point stressing about it; it just is what it is.

Friday the 14th through to Monday the 17th is all poor surf conditions. We’re looking at swell around 4ft from the S and SE, but with a period of only 8 seconds, it’s just wind-slop. The wind’s on it too, so it’ll be a mess. Saturday the 15th does push up to 5ft in the arvo (energy 651), but the wind is cross-onshore and it’s described as fairly choppy. Not worth the paddle.

From Tuesday the 18th through to Thursday the 20th, it drops off even more. We’re talking swell under 3ft, weak energy (under 250), and still with that onshore wind. The highlight of this entire stretch is Thursday morning the 20th – it’s glassy, a rare thing, but the swell is a paltry 3ft and the energy is weak at 89. It’s surfable, but it’s far from good. You’d be scratching for a waist-high burger. Then we’ve got a few days of tiny, clean-ish waves, but again, really marginal.

The weekend of the 23rd and 24th sees a slight bump in size, but the conditions stay ordinary. Sunday the 23rd has 6ft of S swell in the morning (energy 600), but the wind is on it. Monday and Tuesday stay mediocre, with the wind swinging around and chopping things up.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout is a solid stretch starting Tuesday the 25th of August. That morning, the ocean finally wakes up. We’re looking at 8ft of S swell with a 10-second period and a strong energy reading of 1277. The wind is glassy. It’s gonna be a proper push of water, and for the experienced crew, this is the one. This is the standout of the whole run. It’s big, it’s clean, and it’s got some grunt.

If you’re not up for the full-on 8ft, then Wednesday the 26th morning is the other one to consider. It’s dropped slightly to 7ft of S swell (energy 1148), but the wind is cross-offshore and it’s clean. It’s still a serious size, but maybe a touch more manageable. The arvo on the 26th blows out with a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore, so get your waves in early.

After that, the swell backs off a bit but the windows open up. Thursday the 27th has a morning with a moderate offshore wind and 4ft of S swell (energy 275). It’s clean. Friday the 28th morning is also worth a mention with 5ft of SE swell (energy 438) and light offshore winds. These are far better bets than anything in the first week, but they don’t hold a candle to the 25th and 26th.

So, keep it simple. The first week is a flat, choppy write-off. The 25th and 26th of August are the standouts, no doubt about it—big, clean, powerful swells. They’re for experienced surfers, no question. If that’s too much, the 27th and 28th mornings offer a cleaner, smaller alternative. It’s all about waiting for that pulse. The long-range stuff is promising but, you know, forecasts can change. But yeah, don’t waste your energy on the early part of the window. Stay patient.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty

Read more