Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, switching to feet and miles.

First up, this is a classic reef setup at Nobbys Reef – an advanced wave that doesn’t break all that often, but when it does, it can really fire. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

The week kicks off on Friday, July 10th with a solid SE swell running 6 ft and a period of 10 seconds. That’s a nice groundswell, and with the wind going glassy in the afternoon, the surface is going to be silky smooth. The combined energy is moderate (527-588) and it’s the best window early on. Saturday morning, July 11th, sees the swell drop to 4 ft but with clean NW offshore winds – that’s a really good combo for this reef. The swell direction is bang on from the SE, what this spot loves. The energy is still moderate (398). Saturday afternoon drops further to 3 ft but stays clean with offshore breeze.

Sunday, July 12th, things get messy. The wind swings cross-off and picks up, and the swell energy drops off a cliff to 138. It’s surfable but not worth paddling out for. Monday and Tuesday are tiny – 2 ft down to 0.3 ft – and the energy is weak (under 100). A real quiet spell.

Then, on Wednesday, July 15th, the swell comes back with a vengeance. By the afternoon, we’re looking at 12 ft of S swell, but the wind is a nasty cross-onshore at 22 mph – that’s lumpy, bumpy, and just not fun. The combined energy jumps to 1842, which is strong, but it’s all blown out. Thursday, July 16th, gets even bigger – 15 ft SSE swell, but again, cross-onshore wind and choppy conditions. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

Friday, July 17th through Sunday, July 19th, the swell is straight-up massive. 18 ft SE on Friday morning, with a long 12-second period. The energy is super strong (8536), but it’s too big for this break – even for experts. Same story Saturday and Sunday. You’d be mad to get out there unless you’re on a jet ski.

The first real standout after the big stuff is Sunday afternoon, July 19th. The swell has dropped to 8 ft from the SE, period 10 seconds, and the wind is light and cross-off. The energy is still strong (1451), but it’s manageable for experienced surfers. The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the one to circle.

Monday, July 20th is also a beauty. The swell settles to 6 ft SE, offshore NW wind at 9 mph, and the energy is moderate (664). Clean, glassy conditions, and the swell direction is perfect for the reef. This is a solid day for anyone who knows the reef.

After that, the energy fades again. From Tuesday, July 21st, through to Thursday, July 23rd, the swell is under 3 ft and the wind is cross or onshore – not worth the drive. Friday, July 24th, has a tiny 1 ft SE swell but clean offshore wind – just a skeg-wetter at best.

The long-range, Saturday, July 25th, shows a big 10 ft S swell with a long 13-second period and offshore NW wind. The energy is very strong (3253), but like before, it’s probably too big for this spot. It’s promising if you’re a tow-in crew, but for normal paddle surfing, it’s a pass.

So, the real sweet spots are Friday afternoon, July 10th (glassy, 6 ft SE) and Monday morning, July 20th (offshore, 6 ft SE). The crowd factor is “sometimes” at Nobbys Reef, so you might have a few others out, but it’s not a zoo.

Rusty out.

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