Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, mate, Rusty here with the outlook for Nobbys Reef.

We’re looking at a pretty scratchy start to this forecast window. For the next several days, there’s nothing really worth paddling out for. The combo of messy cross-onshore winds and a good-sized, but junky, 12ft SSE swell is a write-off for us – it’s a full-on performance-killer. That carries on through Wednesday and into Thursday morning, when things finally start to clean up.

Thursday the 9th is where the tide turns for the first standout. A light W wind swings cross-offshore, cleaning up that 5ft ESE swell (892). It’s not huge, but the wind will have the surface glassy and the sets should have some shape. We’re talking about a clean, ridable wave at a reef that only works when the stars align, and it’s inconsistent, so you’ll need to be patient. Still, a clean 5ft ESE swell? That’s the one to aim for if you’re not working.

Saturday the 11th will also have a bit of clean fun for the patient surfer with a gentle offshore NW breeze grooming a smaller 4-4ft SE groundswell (around 309-326). It’s small, but it’ll be clean.

Then we hit a long, flat lull. From Sunday the 12th through to about Friday the 18th, it’s tiny. We're talking knee-to-waist high slop, mostly 1ft to 3ft. There's a few windows of clean wind and a little hope with some S swell around the 14th, but it’s not going to get the blood pumping.

For the second week, things get a little more interesting but stay small. Saturday afternoon the 18th sees a gentle offshore NNW wind with a long-period 3ft S swell (221) – the longer period should give it some push for its size, but it’ll be inconsistent. Then Sunday the 19th has a bit more size with a 3ft SSE swell under a moderate offshore WNW breeze (around 241). Still small and clean, but not a standout.

Now, a real, genuine heads-up for the expert crew. On Tuesday the 21st of July, the models are promising a big, clean pulse. A fresh offshore W wind should groom a solid 15ft SSW swell, with truly massive energy values (over 9,100). It’s a proper big-wave day, but the file explicitly states the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a call for serious chargers only, and even then, it might be unsurfable at this spot.

Wednesday the 22nd looks promising, too. The morning has a moderate 7ft SSE swell with clean conditions, but it’s the afternoon that’s the real prize. A glassy SSW breeze with a 6ft SSE swell (715) is on the menu. That’s an absolute gem – good size, and glassy conditions. That is your best chance for a proper, clean session in this whole window.

So, to wrap it up: the first big hit is Thursday the 9th for some clean but inconsistent waves. The true standout is Wednesday the 22nd afternoon when it turns glassy. If you’re brave, have a look at Tuesday the 21st, but only if you’re feeling extremely confident.

Rusty.

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