Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's shaping up for us. We're looking at a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, with only a few real windows of opportunity. The first proper surf worth paddling out for is on Sunday morning, the 13th.

Let's start with that Sunday morning session. It's a bit of a standout in the near term. Nobbys Reef is showing clean conditions with a light cross-offshore breeze. The swell is coming in from the SSE at a manageable 3 ft, with a period of 9 seconds, giving the water some decent shape. The combined swell energy is moderate at 206, so there's a bit of push behind it. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. It’s an exposed reef break, and it can be inconsistent here, but for an advanced surfer, this morning window looks like the best bet early on.

Sunday afternoon turns ugly real quick as the wind swings ENE and cranks up to 19 mph, making it a lumpy, cross-shore mess. Not worth it.

Monday morning, the 14th, is another clean morning with light winds, but the swell has dropped to a weak 2 ft from the south with a moderate 12-second period. The energy is down to 158, so it's surfable but very ordinary. Tuesday morning the 15th sees a tiny 1 ft SSE swell with light offshore winds, but there's hardly any energy behind it (45), so you'd be fighting for scraps.

We then hit a long gap of poor conditions and strong winds. Wednesday the 16th has a massive jump in swell, hitting 8 ft on Wednesday morning and 12 ft by the afternoon, but it's accompanied by strong onshore winds. The combined energy is massive (1211 and 2825 respectively), but it's a chunky, lumpy beast, way too big and messy for this reef. Thursday the 17th is even worse, with 12 ft swell and cross-onshore winds, and the energy is cranked up to 4050. The model even says it's too big for this break, so only a total nutter on a jet ski would be out there.

We finally see another clean window on Friday morning, the 18th. A light offshore wind from the NW and a 4 ft south swell with a period of 9 seconds. The energy is a solid moderate 353. This is another good option, with clean conditions.

Saturday morning the 19th looks just as promising, with a clean offshore wind again and a 3 ft swell from the SE, but this one has a long 11-second period, giving it some proper push and shape. The energy is 387. This is a real standout in the second part of the forecast. The long period does mean it might be a bit straight for a beach break, but here at a reef, it should set up nicely.

After that, we drop back into small, weak surf for several days. The 20th has tiny 1 ft waves with offshore winds, but the energy is pathetic (61 and 43). Monday the 21st sees the swell jump again to 8 ft, but it's cross-onshore and choppy, a complete write-off. There's another clean shot on Tuesday morning the 22nd with a 4 ft SSE swell and light offshore wind (energy 237), which is okay but nothing special.

The final week from the 23rd onwards looks pretty grim. Persistent onshore winds and small, weak swell dominate. There's a spike on Monday the 28th with a 7 ft S swell and a 11-second period, with light cross-onshore winds, but it's just not clean enough to get excited about.

So, to sum it up: Sunday morning the 13th and Friday morning the 18th are your best early bets. The standout of the whole outlook, however, is Saturday morning the 19th with its clean offshore wind and that nice long-period groundswell. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The rest of the time? A lot of waiting.

Rusty.

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