Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a bit of a slow cooker of a forecast for Nobbys Reef, with a heavy dose of patience required.

Right now, the first real chance to get wet doesn’t arrive until Monday morning, August 3rd. The wave energy is moderate (306), with a 4ft southeast swell running at 11 seconds. That’s a decent, punchy groundswell. The real winner here is the clean, glassy morning with a light NNW wind. Water temp sits at 64°, which is about 1° cooler than average for this time of year – nothing wild, just a bit nippy for the toes. The rip across the reef could be a bit of a heavy paddle early, but the sets will be worth it.

Monday afternoon takes a step back. The wind swings to the northwest and kicks up to 15 mph. The swell drops to 3ft, and though it’s still offshore, the energy is weaker (199). It’s a real "just go for a paddle" session.

Tuesday, August 4th, is a write-off. Tiny waves, 1ft, with a westerly cross-off breeze in the morning. The energy is pathetic (45), and the period is short. Not worth suiting up.

We cruise through Wednesday and Thursday, with the same story – small, weak swells in the 1ft to 2ft range, a mix of cross-off and cross-shore winds. The energy stays under 100 most of the time. It’s flat, flat, flat.

Now, Friday morning, August 7th, shows a little flicker. The swell bumps up to 2ft from the south, with a 9-second period. The energy is moderate (142), and a light WSW wind keeps it clean. It’s just on the edge of being fun, but not a standout.

Saturday morning, August 8th, is a real tease. Glassy conditions, zero wind, but only 2ft of south swell. The energy is low (84). It’s like a mirror, but there’s nothing to ride.

Sunday, August 9th, and Monday, the 10th, are back to the same small, weak swells and gusty cross-off winds. The energy is barely above 50. It’s a frustrating run.

Here’s the real standout. Tuesday, August 11th – morning. The swell jumps to 3ft from the south, with a 9-second period. The wind is a clean offshore from the WNW, light at 6 mph. The energy is solid (184). This is the best true window in the first half of the forecast. The sets will have some push, and the offshore wind will hold the faces up. It’s not huge, but it’s the most reliable clean wave we’ve got.

Then we hit a wall again. Wednesday through Friday morning, August 13th, are tiny and weak. The energy is in the 40s and 60s.

Now, hold on to your boards. Friday morning, August 14th, is the big one. A 10ft south swell hits, with a 9-second period. The energy is insane (2078). That is a massive amount of power. The wind is a light offshore from the NNW. BUT – this is a reef break, and 10ft here is a monster. This is expert-only territory. The waves will be heavy, thick, and dangerous. If you’re not solid, stay well clear. The swell is too big for beginners.

The drop-off on Friday afternoon is sharp, but still big at 8ft for the brave. The wind shifts to a cross-shore from the ENE, making it a bit messy for the experts.

Saturday, August 15th, is still beefy. A 5ft swell from the SSE with a moderate westerly cross-off wind. The energy is strong (396). It’s messy though, and the wind makes it a bit of a battle. For the more experienced, there might be a few bombs, but the quality is low.

After that, the window closes. Sunday, August 16th, brings rain showers and 15 mph onshore winds. The swell is 4ft, but it’s a choppy, blown-out mess. The energy is moderate (221), but it’s not worth the paddle.

Best on offer: The clear winner is Tuesday morning, August 11th at Nobbys Reef. That 3ft, 9-second south swell with clean offshore WNW wind is the pick for a proper, fun session. The crowd here can be "sometimes" busy, so get down early. The Friday morning, August 14th is a spectacle for experts only – a massive, powerful 10ft day that will test the best.

Rusty.

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