Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get straight into it.

The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag around here. We’ve got a few fun windows, but you’re gonna have to be picky and work around the wind. There’s a real lack of quality for long stretches, but a couple of mornings are going to be worth the early alarm.

Nobbys Reef is the only game in town in the data. It’s an exposed reef break that takes a south-east swell, and it's inconsistent, so when it does line up, you need to be on it.

Friday afternoon kicks things off, and honestly, it’s a write-off. There’s 5ft of south-south-east swell but a light onshore breeze and the call is poor. Not worth suiting up. The water temp is 65°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so a full wetsuit is still the go.

Saturday morning is the first real highlight. The swell drops right off to 2ft and the period jumps out to 19 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The wind is glassy and it’s looking clean. It’ll be small, but the energy will be quality. The combined swell energy is moderate at 469 units. This might be a longboard or a high-volume shortboard wave. The long period could make it a bit straight at this reef, but a glassy morning on a 19-second swell is always worth a look. It’s a small, clean reef wave, so won't be too heavy.

The rest of the weekend turns ordinary. Saturday afternoon gets a chop on it with a cross-on breeze, and Sunday is a mix of light offshores but small swell with a cross-off breeze. There’s surfable stuff, but nothing to get excited about. The middle of next week looks like a write-off until Wednesday.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. On Wednesday the 16th, a proper pulse of energy shows up. We’re looking at 10ft to 12ft of south swell, with combined energy readings of 1760 and then 2770. That’s strong to very strong. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is a strong cross-onshore and the call is poor and messy. This is way too big and blown out for any sort of fun. If you’re a paddle surfer, this is a no-go. The setup looks way more interesting for the kite surfers to be honest. The swell direction is from the south, which isn't ideal for the reef, and the size will make it a washing machine.

Thursday the 17th is still big, 8ft, but the wind eases. Morning is cross-shore and lumpy, the afternoon is onshore. It’s a step down in energy, but still likely a chaotic mess. It's expert-only at this size and through a cross-chop.

Finally, we get a proper window on Friday the 18th. The swell has backed off to a clean 4ft from the south with a period of 8 seconds. The wind is offshore – gentle, but offshore – and the call is good. This is your standout of the whole run. It’s a short-period swell, so it won't have the same grunt as a longer period groundswell, but on a reef like this with clean offshore wind, it could be absolutely fun. Moderate combined energy at 300 units. It’s less about size and all about the conditions. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

After that, the horizon turns flat and quiet. The last few days of the run from the 19th to the 21st have tiny waves – under 2ft – with long periods. Glassy on Saturday morning, but just too small. The 20th and 21st are flat with poor conditions. A blank run like this looks pretty normal for the area.

Further out, around Wednesday the 23rd, there’s a pulse of short-period easterly swell rebuilding. It’s onshore, though, and looks messy. The following Friday the 25th shows some size building to 7ft from the east with a light cross-onshore, but it’s not the right direction for this spot and is still not looking clean. That's promising but with a lot of caveats.

Stick with the 25th if we get lucky with the wind. It’s a long way out, so don't book your flights, but it’s something to watch.

Keep your eyes on that Friday morning the 18th. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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