
Surf Forecasts:
Nobbys Reef surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 16 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, S swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, S swell with 2,708 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 16 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Nobbys Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 15s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-shore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Nobbys Reef in the next 16 days are 3.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Friday (Sep 18) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Nobbys Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here again, and after checking the long-range for Nobbys Reef, I gotta be honest – this is a frustrating stretch. We get one real opportunity, and then it’s a whole lot of nothing. The first few days are all about size, but it’s the wrong kind of size – way too much for this place.
Wednesday the 16th starts with a 3.0m south swell at a 10-second interval, and the wave energy is strong, sitting at 1698. But the wind is howling cross-shore at 35 km/h, so it’s lumpy and chaotic. It builds even more through the afternoon, hitting 3.5m with energy at 2254, and the wind goes cross-onshore. Too big. Thursday the 17th is similar – still pushing 3.0m and the energy is pumping at 3559, but again, it’s just too much. The morning has a cross breeze, and it’s not clean. The afternoon drops to 2.3m, but the period shortens to 9 seconds and it’s choppy. Not the time to be paddling out.
Now, the one to save your energy for: Friday morning, the 18th. The swell has dropped to a friendly 1.3m from the south with a 9-second period, and the wind is offshore from the northwest at just 10 km/h. It’s clean, glassy, and the reef will be working proper. The energy is only moderate at 387, but that’s fine – this is where the lines will hold up and you can actually get some decent turns. This is easily the best session on offer. But get out there early because by the afternoon, the wind goes cross-shore and chops it up.
After that, the bottom falls out. The rest of the weekend is tiny – Saturday the 19th has 0.8m, Sunday morning the 20th is glassy but only 0.9m, and the energy is down around 197. It’s surfable, but barely. Those long 17-19 second period swells at the end of the day are just going to close out the reef. Monday the 21st has a light offshore and a clean 0.7m, but it’s marginal. The energy is weak at 117.
Then things get ugly. From Tuesday the 22nd right through the rest of the window, it’s mostly poor. There’s a bit of a bump on the 22nd with 2-2.0m from the southeast, but the period is a short 7 seconds and the wind is onshore and fresh. Rain, slop, and onshore winds – the whole run from the 23rd to the 27th is a total write-off. The energy readings are mostly weak, and the swell direction has too much east in it, which is wrong for this break. It’s not even worth looking at the water.
There’s one more faint hope on Monday morning, the 28th of September – about ten days out, so it’s a long-range bet. The forecast shows 1.6m from the northeast with a 7-second period, and it’s clean with a cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate at 350. It might be fun, but that short period and northerly angle are a real question mark for this reef. Still, it’s the only other thing that flashes a bit of promise. But by the afternoon and the first of October, it’s back to onshore wind and junk.
So for all you surfers, mark your board for Friday the 18th. The water temp is about average for this time of year, around 65 degrees, so you won’t need a thick suit. But for everyone else, this is a lean stretch. The swell is either too big and messy, or too small and weak. This reef needs a clean, moderate south swell with decent period, and we only get that for one morning. The rest of it is a battle with onshore winds and tired, short-period waves. Not much else to say – it’s one of those fortnights where you gotta be picky or you’ll be frustrated.
Catch you in the water.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, light winds from the NNW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Warm (max 30°C on Mon morning, min 15°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | SSE 17 | S 9 | S 10 | SSE 19 | SSE 17 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 9 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1690 | 2254 | 2432 | 2056 | 901 | 488 | 276 | 282 | 170 | 111 | 96 | 62 | 167 | 123 | 168 | 92 | 139 | 358 | 247 | 350 | 290 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | off | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross | off | off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 11:27AM1.46m | 11:44PM1.07m | 12:11PM1.41m | 00:35AM0.98m | 1:02PM1.36m | 1:45AM0.92m | 2:03PM1.34m | 3:16AM0.92m | 3:09PM1.34m | 4:36AM0.99m | 4:11PM1.38m | 5:27AM1.08m | 5:04PM1.43m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:01PM0.48m | 5:28AM0.51m | 6:59PM0.55m | 6:08AM0.59m | 8:08PM0.59m | 7:03AM0.67m | 9:25PM0.58m | 8:16AM0.71m | 10:30PM0.52m | 9:34AM0.71m | 11:17PM0.45m | 10:40AM0.65m | 11:54PM0.36m | ||||||||
5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | |
— | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 30 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
Feels °C | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 25 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 14 | — | E 13 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 9 | SSE 17 | S 10 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | SSE 18 | SSE 19 |
4 | — | 3 | 1500 | 901 | 488 | 276 | 282 | 170 | 111 | 85 | 62 | 167 | 93 | 168 | 92 | 139 | 93 | 88 | 34 | 207 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | E 13 | S 19 | SE 8 | SSE 18 | ESE 7 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 19 | S 7 | NW 3 | E 11 | — | E 11 | E 11 | S 10 |
4 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 7 | 77 | 103 | 47 | 99 | 96 | 29 | 28 | 123 | 25 | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 54 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | E 13 | E 13 | SSE 19 | E 12 | SSE 16 | SE 8 | E 12 | ESE 7 | E 11 | E 11 | S 10 | SSE 16 | E 11 | — | — | — | E 11 |
— | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 34 | 3 | 86 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 25 | 2 | — | — | — | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | — | — | — | ESE 7 | W 2 | W 3 | SE 8 | — | — | — | W 2 | W 3 | SSE 4 | SSE 9 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 |
1690 | 2254 | 2432 | 2056 | — | — | — | 64 | 1 | 6 | 15 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 17 | 358 | 247 | 350 | 290 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 739 | 831 | 125 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 96 | 44 | 179 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Nobbys Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Nobbys Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Nobbys Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Nobbys Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Nobbys Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Nobbys Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Nobbys Reef, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Newcastle which is 3 km (2 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 31 km (19 miles) away, Port Stephens, Cessnock and Central Coast.










