Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for Nobbys Reef. Looking at the full 16 days, we’ve got a rocky start with very little to get excited about straight away. Honestly, this forecast starts with a bit of a letdown for the first week, before a real standout shows up in the second week.

The water temperature is sitting at 64°, which is a degree cooler than average for this time of year – a bit nippy, keep the winter rubber handy.

First up, Sunday the 9th has small waves around 2 ft from the ENE, but it's only pushing 91 units of combined energy. It’s surfable but nothing to rush for.

The real issue is the following days. You’ve got a solid NW wind on Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th, with some cleaner conditions but super small swell – 4 ft dropping down to 2 ft. The energy is weak or moderate at best, and that short 9 or 13 second period isn't doing any favours for a reef setup. For an advanced spot, it's just too underwhelming.

The best early window appears on Tuesday afternoon the 11th. We see a clean 2 ft swell from the south with a longer 13-second period and 207 units of combined energy, under offshore WNW winds. It’ll be clean, but small. A good session for someone on a log or a mid-length.

Thursday morning the 13th brings a pulse of solid south swell – 8 ft – but it’s packing only 8-second period and heaps of energy (1152 units). The wind is cross-shore, so it’s going to be lumpy. That size is getting into expert territory only at a wave like Nobbys Reef, but the short period might make it fat and unruly. Not the standout for me.

We then hit a long stretch of onshore, choppy, and generally poor conditions from the 15th through to the 21st. There’s a glimmer on Friday the 21st morning with glassy conditions and a clean 4 ft SE swell, but the energy is low and the period is short – it’s just ordinary.

Now, here’s the real standout of the whole outlook. Saturday the 22nd of August. The morning session is where you want to be. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the east, with a solid 10-second period delivering 546 units of moderate energy. The wind is a light N/NE, cross-offshore, keeping the surface clean. It’s not too big for a confident advanced surfer, and the longer period means proper lines. This is the call of the fortnight – get it while it’s good. The afternoon gets messy with a stiff NE breeze, so make it a dawn mission.

After that, Sunday the 23rd keeps some clean offshore wind from the WNW at 19 mph and 6 ft ENE swell, but the guidance suggests it’s marginal. Likely still fun for the experienced crew, but the Saturday morning is the true highlight.

To wrap it up: the first week is a grind, but don't sleep on Saturday the 22nd. That’s the one clean, solid day to circle on the calendar.

– Rusty

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