Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Nobbys Reef, a tricky reef setup for advanced surfers only. It’s inconsistent and can be a bit of a tease, but when it lines up, it’s a proper little wave. Water temp is sitting right on 66°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The outlook starts off with a bit of a whimper, not a bang. The first couple of days are pretty ordinary. Thursday afternoon the 9th has some Southeast swell around 6ft, but with a light onshore wind, it’s not looking great. The combined energy is moderate (633), but the wind is a killer. Friday morning the 10th is a bit better – the swell drops a touch to 6ft from the Southeast, but we get a clean cross-offshore breeze from the West. That’s the best of the early window, but it’s still only a marginal call.

The real standout in the first week is Saturday morning the 11th. We’ve got clean 4ft Southeast swell with a nice offshore wind from the Northwest. The energy is moderate (398), and the period is a touch short at 9 seconds, but the conditions will be clean. This is your best bet for a fun, manageable session. Saturday afternoon hangs in there too with 3ft from the ESE and a longer 11-second period, and still offshore. After that, it drops right off.

From Sunday the 12th through to Wednesday the 15th, it’s a proper lull. Swell drops to tiny, weak stuff, often under 2ft, and the wind is a mess. The energy drops to weak two-digit numbers like 71 or even 15. Not worth paddling out.

Then we get a massive pulse of swell from the 16th of July onwards. This is the big story. From Thursday the 16th through to Monday the 20th, we’re looking at a serious run of Southern Ocean groundswell. The combined energy is enormous – four-digit numbers like 4755, 5953, even 9715 on the 18th. This is very strong, powerful energy. The swell height is 16ft to 20ft from the SSE, with periods of 10 to 12 seconds. This is expert-only territory. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the waves are going to be huge and messy. The file even says for the 17th, 18th, and 19th that the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s the truth. Unless you’re a tow-in charger, stay away.

The window of opportunity for experienced surfers actually opens on Monday the 20th. The swell drops to a still-chunky 10ft in the morning, then 8ft in the afternoon from the Southeast, with a good 11-second period. More importantly, the wind swings offshore from the Northwest. The afternoon of the 20th is the real highlight for the whole outlook: 8ft SE groundswell, clean offshore winds, and the combined energy is still strong (1670). Conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to circle.

After that, the swell settles back down. Tuesday the 21st has 6ft SE swell and cross-offshore winds, but it’s nothing special. The rest of the week looks poor with strong onshore winds and messy conditions.

So, to sum it up: the early week is average, but Saturday morning the 11th delivers a clean, small window. The big swell from the 16th to the 19th is way too big for this spot. The absolute best on offer is Monday afternoon the 20th – solid 8ft SE groundswell, clean offshore wind, and perfect for the experienced crew. That’s your session.

Rusty.

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