Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for Nobbys Reef. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so strap in.

The truth is, the first stretch is pretty grim. We’re looking at a run of days where the swell is tiny and the conditions are just… ordinary. Nothing worth paddling out for. That’s the case right through the 5th, with most mornings and afternoons offering ankle-biters in the 2ft range. The odd clean window pops up, like the Wednesday afternoon with that offshore wind, but there’s just no power in the water. The combined swell energy is weak, mostly under 100 (like 102 and 84), so you’re fighting for nothing out there.

The weekend doesn’t get much better. Saturday will give you a couple of waves with the northerly offshore, but again, it’s small stuff, around 2ft. Sunday’s a write-off with onshore junk. We do start to see some more energy building on Sunday afternoon though, the combined energy jumps to 477, but the wind is on it, making it messy.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Mark your calendar for Monday the 7th. That morning looks like the first real chance. Light offshore wind, clean conditions, and a 4ft southerly swell, pushing the energy up to 310. It’s a reef break, so it might be a bit inconsistent, but when those sets come through, it should have some shape to it. That’s your first proper call.

From there, we go into a bit of a lull again. The 8th and 9th are poor with onshore winds and lumpy conditions. But hold on, because the 10th is where the ocean wakes up. The swell jumps, with 7ft on Thursday morning, and the energy rockets up to 861. Wind is cross-shore, which isn’t perfect, but the power is there. Then, Thursday afternoon sees a serious pulse of long-period groundswell at 18 seconds, and the energy goes through the roof to 1665. That’s a big one, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy, so it’s more of a beast than a beauty.

The real standout, the one you want to plan for, is Friday the 11th. Morning session, 7ft of SSE swell with a 13-second period. It’s a clean, gentle cross-shore breeze, and the energy is a massive 1532. This is big, lined-up reef surf. The kind of day that gets the heart pumping. It’s well overhead and powerful with that long period, so it’s strictly for the experienced crew. Nobbys Reef will be doing its thing. This is the pick of the fortnight, no doubt, even if it’s not perfect. The afternoon drops to 6ft and the breeze swings onshore, so get it early.

After that, the power fades. Saturday the 12th has a fun 4ft in the morning with clean conditions, a decent follow-up but nothing like Friday. Then we’re back to small and weak. There’s a glassy little window on the morning of the 15th, but it’s only 1ft. The 16th afternoon looks interesting, a moderate offshore and a clean 3ft with an energy of 272, good for a grovel on the longboard.

The second week isn't worth losing sleep over. That Friday the 11th is the one. It’s a long way out, so treat it as exciting but not set in stone. The water temp is 65°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

So, be patient, wait for that Friday, and let the reef do the rest.

Rusty

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