Nobbys Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Nobbys Reef has in store for us. It’s a tricky one to call, being an exposed reef break that’s inconsistent, so we need the right conditions to line up. This forecast has a lot of waiting in it, with only a couple of real windows where it all comes together.

We start with a poor run. Friday the 11th is a write-off; the swell is up around 6 ft from the SSE with a crosswind and moderate combined wave energy (576), making for a messy, lumpy scene. It’s not worth a paddle.

Saturday the 12th morning is our first standout. The swell has dropped right back to a tiny 2 ft but it’s from the SSE with an incredible 19-second period – that’s proper long-period groundswell energy. The wind is glassy, absolutely dead calm. The water temp is 65°, which is about average for the time of year. This is a clean, glassy reef setup, but with that tiny size and long period, it’s going to be a long wait between sets. The combined energy is moderate (469), so there’s power in the water, but it’s a game for a log or a keen eye. Saturday afternoon the seabreeze chops it up, so that morning session is the one.

We then hit a long, quiet stretch. Sunday the 13th through to Tuesday the 15th sees small, weak swells, mostly cross or onshore winds, and combined energy dropping well below 200. Not worth suiting up for. Wednesday the 16th is a big warning sign: a massive 13 ft swell from the S hits, but it’s accompanied by strong 28 mph cross-onshore winds and a combined energy reading of 2806. That’s a washing machine, not surf. The 17th is still blown out and too big.

After the wind drops, we get another clean window. Friday the 18th morning is glassy again, with a 2 ft SSE groundswell and that same 19-second pulse. The combined energy is a healthy 512. It’s tiny but absolutely pristine. Saturday the 19th morning brings a nice change: an offshore NW breeze and a 2 ft S swell at 15 seconds. That’s clean, lined-up reef waves. The combined energy (349) suggests it’s not just a dribble either.

Sunday the 20th morning is small and clean, but wave heights are dropping. Then things go flat and poor again for several days, through to the 22nd.

Now, for the end of the period, Wednesday the 23rd morning is a big deal but with a major caveat. We’ve got a 10 ft S swell on the way, with a 10-second period and combined energy reading of 1873. The wind is light NNE, so it’ll be cross-offshore and clean. But for Nobbys Reef, 10 ft is expert-only territory, and the forecast even flags it as potentially too big for the break. The energy is massive, but the paddle-out will be a mission and the wave size is serious. This one is for the experienced crew only and even then, it will be a handful. Thursday the 24th is still chunky, with 6 ft SSE swell, but the wind turns cross and the period drops, so it’s less appealing.

So, if you’re after the best of a quiet period, get on the glassy Saturday the 12th morning for the long-period clean lines. For a bit more size and offshore conditions, Saturday the 19th morning is your next best bet, but it’s still small. The big 10 ft swell on the 23rd is the only real size on offer, but it is not for the faint of heart.

Stay patient and keep an eye on the sky.

Rusty

Read more