Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your coffee and let’s settle in. I’m lookin’ at the charts for Nimitz Beach, and honestly, it’s a bit of a slow burn. The start of this 16-day window is real quiet, with barely a ripple worth paddling for. The water temp is sittin’ around 80°, which is bang on normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Right off the bat, Friday the 17th, we got a long-period groundswell rolling in from the SSW at 2ft to 3ft, period up around 16 seconds. That’s a nice, clean pulse of energy—moderate energy in the water (460 to 503)—but the wind is blowin’ cross or cross-off out of the east at 12 to 19 mph. That wind is killin’ it for a clean face. The wave comment is “poor surf conditions,” so I’m not even gonna pretend that’s a go. Same story through Saturday and Sunday; swell bumps up a bit to 5ft on Saturday, but that short period (7 to 8 seconds) and strong breeze just trash any hope of a decent wave. Not worth your time.

The pattern stays marginal through Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st. We get some S swell at 2ft to 3ft with a long period of 14 to 16 seconds, and the energy is moderate (397 to 498). The wind is still cross-off, which cleans it up a little, but it’s just too small and inconsistent. The wave comment keeps sayin’ “marginal.” You could probably sit out there and get a few, but it’s not gonna light your fire.

Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd, the swell direction swings back to SSW with period droppin’ from 24 seconds down to 20 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to 848 to 871, so there’s some grunt in the water, but the swell height is only 2ft to 3ft. The wind is cross or cross-off at 16 to 19 mph, and the wave comment is either “poor” or “marginal.” It’s still a struggle.

Now, there’s a glimmer of hope for the end of the first week and into the second. Friday the 24th through Sunday the 27th of July sees a slow build in swell from the SSW and then E, with heights creepin’ up to 5ft by Monday morning the 27th. The period stays long (16 to 20 seconds), and the energy really starts to pile up—986 on the 25th, all the way up to 1461 on the 27th morning and even 2094 on the 27th afternoon. That’s strong wave energy. The wind is cross-off from the ENE at 12 to 19 mph, so it’s clean. The wave comment for the 26th and 27th finally says “marginal” with a score of 2 to 3. This is where it gets interesting, but it’s still not a standout.

The real standout in this whole window hits on Tuesday the 28th of July. We’ve got a solid 7ft swell from the east, period at 15 seconds in the morning and 14 seconds in the afternoon. The combined energy is through the roof—1893 in the morning and 1787 in the afternoon—that’s strong to very strong wave energy. The wind is light, 6 to 9 mph from the east, with a light cross-shore in the morning and clean cross-off in the afternoon. The wave comment says “marginal,” but with that kind of size, energy, and light wind, this is the best on offer. Keep in mind, at 7ft, this is getting into expert territory, especially for a reef break. That long-period groundswell (15 seconds) will wrap around the point, giving you some real nice shape, but it might break a bit straight on the inside if you’re not careful. Crowds are “sometimes,” so you might have a few others out, but it won’t be a madhouse.

After that high point, things drop off fast. Wednesday the 29th sees the swell collapse back to 2ft with weak energy, and the last few days of July and into August 1st are back to marginal or poor conditions with small S or SW swell and cross winds. Not much to write home about.

So to sum it up: The first week is a write-off. You’re better off waitin’ for that solid east swell on Tuesday the 28th. That’s the one to circle on your calendar. The rest is just maybe a sneaky wave on a longboard if you’re desperate, but nothing that’ll get the heart pumpin’.

Rusty

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