Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up for Nimitz Beach.

Honestly, things are looking pretty flat and uninspiring for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a long stretch of weak, messy swell and mostly onshore or cross-off winds that just aren’t stacking up to anything worth getting excited about. The first week is particularly grim, with only a few glimmers of hope right at the end of the period, and even those are marginal.

The real standout here is the water temp, which is sitting at a comfortable 80°, right around average for this time of year, so at least it’ll feel nice to be in the water, even if there’s nothing to ride.

The first real recommendation doesn’t come until Tuesday, July 14th, but even then it’s a tough sell. The swell is tiny at 2 ft from the west, with a long period of 16 seconds. That’s a groundswell, but the combined energy is only 582 (moderate), and the wind is a cross-off at 12 mph. It’s clean, but the wave comment calls it marginal, and the score is a 2. It’s a reef break, so that long period might wrap in a bit, but for a beginner-level spot, it’s not exactly firing.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are even worse, with the same tiny west swell but cross-on winds making things choppy. The scores drop to 1 and 0. Honestly, it’s a write-off. The winds stay fresh to moderate for the rest of the week, with the swell stuck around 2 ft to 3 ft, mostly from the south-southwest or east. The combined energy is all over the place, from 195 (weak) to 482 (moderate), but the quality is consistently poor.

There’s a brief moment of interest on Sunday, July 19th, when the swell bumps up to 4 ft from the east, but with a short period of 8 seconds and a fresh cross-off wind at 16 mph, it’s just a messy, weak windswell. The score is a 1. Not worth paddling out for.

The second week doesn’t offer much redemption. From Monday, July 20th, through to Wednesday, July 29th, it’s the same story: tiny swell, mostly from the south-southwest, with periods ranging from 13 to 20 seconds, but the winds are always cross-off or cross. The combined energy occasionally climbs into the 700s and 800s, like on Wednesday, July 22nd afternoon (707) and Thursday, July 23rd (905), but the swell height is only 2 ft to 3 ft. The scores are stuck at 1 or 2, and the wave comments are all “marginal” or “poor”.

The best of a bad bunch is probably Tuesday, July 21st afternoon, with a 3 ft south swell, 14-second period, light cross-off wind at 9 mph, and a combined energy of 503. It’s clean, but still only a 2. Or maybe Thursday, July 23rd afternoon, with that 2 ft south-southwest swell and a very long 20-second period, pushing the combined energy to 905. That’s the strongest energy in the whole run, but the swell is tiny, and with a 19 mph cross-off wind, it’s going to be blown out. That long period probably won’t suit this beach break anyway.

Honestly, mate, there’s nothing here that’s a true standout. The whole 16-day window is a flat, wind-affected mess. If you’re desperate for a paddle, the 21st afternoon or the 23rd afternoon are your best bets, but keep your expectations on the floor. For everyone else, give it a miss.

Rusty.

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