Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, and I won’t sugarcoat it – the next couple of weeks at Nimitz Beach are a real test of patience.

We’re looking at about a two-week stretch of poor to marginal surf before anything worth paddling out for shows up. The water temp is around 81°F, pretty much average for this time of year.

The first weekend, Friday September 4th through Sunday the 6th, brings some south and east swell in the 4 to 6 foot range, with moderate energy. But the wind is blowing 15 to 19 mph out of the east-northeast, keeping it cross-offshore. The waves are clean but just not that good – marginal conditions with a swell period around 12 to 14 seconds. Not enough oomph.

Monday the 7th gets ugly. A southwest swell builds to nearly 8 feet in the morning with strong energy, but the wind shifts to the east-southeast, creating a cross-shore chop. By afternoon, the swell hits 11 feet with even more power, but the onshore wind is howling at 22 mph – total mess. That’s kite or foil territory only.

From Tuesday the 8th through the middle of the month, it’s a slow decline. Wave heights drop fast to 6 feet, then smaller, with onshore winds and lumpy conditions. By the 10th, we’re down to 2-foot waves with super long periods (16 to 18 seconds) but almost no energy – combined energy readings under 200. The water goes flat and sleepy. The wind stays cross-off from the east-northeast for most of it, keeping the surface clean, but there’s just no swell to ride.

Around the 15th, we see a tiny uptick to 3-foot waves with a 21-second period, but the energy is still weak – under 900. The wind is moderate cross-off or cross-shore, and the waves are just not lining up for the reef.

Now, here’s the one bright spot: Saturday, September 19th. A south-southwest swell comes through at 3 to 4 feet with a 16-second period and moderate energy. The wind is glassy – near zero from the south-southwest. That means clean, smooth conditions. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions,” and for this entire 16-day stretch, that’s your day. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean, well-shaped, and uncrowded.

So, to sum it up: we’ve got a two-week gap of mostly flatness, then a solid Saturday on the 19th. If you can wait, that’s your window. Otherwise, save the energy.

Rusty.

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