Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s cookin’ for Nimitz Beach over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a pretty lean stretch. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the first real surf that’s worth paddling out for doesn’t really show its face until we get into the second week. The first week and a half is mostly a write-off. The swell is tiny, the wind is a persistent cross-off or cross-shore breeze that’s just not cleaning it up the way we need, and the scores are low. It’s the kind of flat spell that makes you want to check your wax stash and maybe do a fin swap just to feel involved.

The Grind (Now through early September)

From Wednesday August 26th right through the first week of September, it’s a struggle. The waves are small, mostly between 2 ft and 3 ft. The energy is moderate at best, with combined energy readings ranging from 342 to 953 (moderate) – enough to move you around, but nothing to get excited about. The wind is consistently from the ENE at 19 to 37 mph, which is a cross-off, but it’s just too strong for these tiny waves. It’s gonna be bumpy and pretty average. The water temperature is sitting at a warm 82°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

The Glimmer of Hope (September 4th - 5th)

A little light appears on Friday, September 4th. The afternoon shows a bit of hope with winds easing to a gentle 9 mph ENE, still cross-off, and the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” The swell is still tiny at 2 ft from the S with a 13-second period, but the energy is low at 251 (weak). It’s a small window, but it’s the first sign of something not terrible. Saturday is a step back, though.

The Best on Offer (September 9th - 10th)

This is where we finally get our moment. Wednesday, September 9th, the afternoon is the standout. The wind goes glassy – a 3 mph SSE breeze with “glassy” conditions. The swell is only 2 ft from the SSW, but it’s a long-period 14-second groundswell, meaning it’ll have some shape and push. The energy is weak at 357, but in these conditions, it’s about quality over quantity. The break is a reef, so it should handle that long-period swell better than a beach break.

Then, Thursday, September 10th, is the absolute best of the run. The afternoon session is where it’s at. The wind is a 3 mph SE breeze, glassy again. The swell is from the SW at 2 ft, but the period is a very long 21 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to a solid 854 (moderate). This is the kind of setup that can make a small reef break come alive with clean, long lines. The swell is small, so it’s great for everyone, and with the wind being glassy, the surface will be like a mirror. The water temp will still be warm, around 82°F.

Crowds & Caveats

Nimitz Beach is a reef break that’s rated as “inconsistent” and “rarely breaks,” so the fact that we’re pointing to a couple of sessions here is notable. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, but with the swell being small, it’s manageable for all levels. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea on that Thursday afternoon, but it won’t be a circus.

The Long Range (September 10th onwards)

After that Thursday, the forecast gets a bit murky. There’s a chance of a small SSW swell hanging around, but the wind looks like it’ll turn more cross-shore again. It’s promising, but less certain. Keep an eye on it.

Bottom line: If you can wait until the second week, the afternoon of September 10th is your best bet. Small, glassy, and long-period groundswell. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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