Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are looking like a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down day by day.

The immediate outlook is pretty small and wind-affected. We’ve got a window of clean but weak surf coming up, and it’s not until later that we see any real size. We'll have to be patient, but there are a couple of days that’ll be worth the wait.

Saturday afternoon kicks things off with a tiny 2ft SSW swell at Nimitz Beach (Hawaii). It’s clean, but there’s just not a lot of push – the combined energy is weak at 442. Water temp is 81° which is about average for this time of year. Not a day to get excited about, more of a longboard or a learner’s session.

Sunday morning offers a bit more size, with 4ft of east swell, but the period is a short 7 seconds and the energy is still moderate at 515. It’s cross-off, but the short period means it won’t have much shape. I'd call it marginal at best. The afternoon drops back down to 2ft of long-period S swell, but it's just not enough to do anything with.

Monday stays small and clean. 2ft to 2ft of SSW swell with moderate energy (434 and 520). It’s a glassy, clean day, but the lack of size keeps the score low. Good for a splash, but you won’t be telling stories about it.

Tuesday morning has a bit of cross-chop, and the 2ft SSW swell is still small. The afternoon improves slightly to 3ft with a fresh cross-off breeze, but it’s still pretty average.

Things start to pick up mid-week. Wednesday morning sees the swell jump to 3ft from the south with a longer 18 second period, and the energy is now solidly moderate at 1025. The cross-shore wind is a bit of a pain though. The afternoon is better: 4ft of S swell, cross-off wind, and energy climbing to 1179. The long period suggests better shape, but it’ll still be a bit lumpy.

Thursday brings the biggest surf of the first week. Morning has 4ft of S swell, 16 seconds, and 1074 energy. It’s clean but a fresh breeze keeps it lively. The afternoon is similar, 4ft, cross-off, but the wind picks up a bit more. For a more experienced surfer, this is the pick of the first few days.

Friday morning is more of the same, 4ft S swell, but by the afternoon it drops off and a new, short-period E swell builds. That E swell jumps to 7ft on an 8-second period, which is going to be a mess of close-outs, with the energy rising to 1087.

The weekend gets serious, but it’s not necessarily good. Saturday the 15th sees 10ft of short-period E swell, and the energy is strong at 1832 in the morning and 2477 in the afternoon. It’s cross-off, but this size with a 9-second period is only for the experts – this is a big, powerful, and tricky wave. Beginners should stay well clear. Kite surfers might love it, though.

Sunday the 16th is a write-off. A near gale-force NNW wind in the morning with 10ft of E swell makes it impossible to even paddle out. The afternoon switches to a strong onshore S wind and 8ft of S swell. It’s a full-blown storm day. Don’t bother.

After that, it all fades away. Monday the 17th has a cross-onshore wind and messy conditions as the swell drops. Tuesday and Wednesday are back to tiny, clean but insignificant swells. Thursday the 20th is the same story – just small leftovers.

Here’s the interesting bit. Friday the 21st shows some promise late in the day. A 5ft E swell on a short 7-second period, but the wind goes light and cross-off, and the energy is moderate at 578. The forecast notes “very good surf conditions” – for this period, that’s about as good as it gets. It’s still a short-period swell, so expect it to be a bit crumbly, but it will be the cleanest, most rideable surf of the whole run. The morning before it has 4ft of the same swell, also clean.

The last day, Sunday the 23rd, has a morning with a fresh cross-off breeze and small SSW swell, but the afternoon sees another 5ft of short-period east swell. It’s clean, but the wind is up.

So, the standout here is the late afternoon of Friday the 21st. That’s your best bet – it’s clean, light winds, and a bit of push. The bigger swells around the 15th and 16th are too big, too short-period, and blown out to be any fun for most of us. Keep your expectations in check and look for that Friday window.

Rusty

Read more