Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a honest look at what’s coming up for Nimitz Beach over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. This break is a pretty inconsistent reef set-up, and right now it’s not firing. We're gonna see a long gap with very little to get excited about, so patience is the name of the game.

Right off the bat, through Thursday the 3rd and into the first weekend, the surf is tiny. We're looking at waves around 2ft to 2.3ft with a long period SSW groundswell (14-17 seconds). That long period means the energy is there but it’s gonna be fat and slow on a reef. The wind is a moderate to fresh cross-off from the ENE, which is okay but not glassy. The combined energy is moderate at best (327), and the water temp is a warm 79.7°, which is about normal for this time of year. Honestly, the conditions are "poor," so I wouldn't bother paddling out.

The following week, from Sunday the 5th through the 10th, doesn't get much better. Swell heights barely creep up to 3ft, and the combined energy fluctuates, peaking at a moderate 705 on the Sunday morning. We get a pulse of short-period, weak east swell on Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th, hitting 5.9ft, but with a period of only 8 seconds. That’s messy, short-period windswell – not the kind of wave that reef break wants. Strong winds, mostly fresh breezes from the ENE, keep it choppy and unappealing. Most of these days score a zero for surf conditions.

Now, if you’ve got a kite, the persistent side-offshore wind and moderate swell might look more interesting than paddle gear, but for a surfboard, it’s a no-go.

There is a little flicker of hope around Monday the 13th. For the morning session, we see 3ft of SW swell with a 15-second period and moderate cross-off wind. The combined energy bumps up to a solid 750, and it’s the first time we see a score of 2 out of 10. Still marginal, but if the tide lines up, you might find a clean, long-period wave. You’ll have the place to yourself because it’s inconsistent and crowds are only sometimes an issue.

The best chance of the whole run, though, looks to be Tuesday the 14th morning. The swell is still only 2.6ft from the W, but the period is a solid 16 seconds, and the combined energy is the highest we see at 876. Winds are a lighter moderate breeze from the ENE, creating cross-off conditions. This is a long-period groundswell, which is better for a reef setup like this – expect better-shaped, more powerful waves, but longer waits between sets. It’s still marginal, but this is the pick of a very lean period. After that, we fade right back into tiny, weak surf through to the 17th.

So, the standout here is Tuesday the 14th morning. It’s not pumping, but it’s the most energy and the cleanest conditions on offer. Everything else in this 16-day window is a flat, windy blur.

Stay patient, crew.

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