Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m looking at the forecast for the next couple of weeks, and I’ll be honest with you—it’s a pretty quiet stretch for Nimitz Beach. This is a reef break that’s exposed to the south, and for the most part, we’re dealing with small, weak swell and plenty of wind. The water temperature is sitting at 81°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet doesn’t come until the 1st of August, Saturday afternoon. There’s some east swell pushing in around 7 ft, but it’s short-period stuff at 8 seconds, and the wind is a cross-off from the ENE at 25 mph. The wave energy is moderate (979), but the conditions are just poor—the wind is strong, and the swell is junky. Honestly, it’s a day to watch from the sand.

Sunday the 2nd offers a bit more consistency with clear skies, but the swell drops to 6 ft and then 6 ft, still with that short, choppy 8-second period. The wind is a fresh breeze from the ENE at 19 mph, keeping it cross-off. The energy drops to moderate (854) and then lower (679), but the forecast calls it “marginal.” Good for a paddle if you’re desperate, but not much else.

Monday the 3rd sees the swell fade further—4 ft in the morning with a gentle breeze, and the energy is down to 331. By afternoon, it’s a pathetic 1 ft from the SSW with a 12-second period, but the wind picks up again. Not worth it.

Now, Tuesday the 4th is the only real standout in this whole window. The morning is still marginal with 4 ft east swell and an 11-second period, light cross-shore wind. But the afternoon... that’s where it gets interesting. The wind goes glassy—calm, zero knots—and the swell holds at 4 ft from the east with that same 11-second period. The energy is moderate (462), and the conditions are clean. This is your best window in the whole 16 days. It’s a reef break, so that longer period groundswell will wrap in nicely and give you some proper shape. The break is inconsistent though, so you’ll be waiting for sets, but when they come, they’ll be clean. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, so it’s a good session for working on your turns. Crowds are possible, but with the inconsistency, you might get a few waves to yourself.

After that, it’s a long dry spell. From Wednesday the 5th through to the 11th of August, the swell drops to knee-high or below, with short-period junk and strong cross-off winds. The energy is weak (between 124 and 495). The break is rarely breaking, and even when it does, the conditions are poor to marginal. It’s a rough stretch.

We start to see a pulse of energy around the 12th of August, Wednesday. The swell picks up to 4 ft from the south with a 17-second period, and the energy jumps to strong (1158). The wind is still cross-off from the ENE at 19 mph, but the wave energy is there. This is a long-period groundswell, which is great for a reef break like this—it’ll wrap in and give you some push. The catch is the wind stays fresh, and the forecast is still calling it marginal. By Thursday the 13th, the swell holds at 4 ft, period 16 seconds, and the energy is very strong (1247), but the wind is cranking at 22-25 mph. It’s going to be a windy, challenging session, only for experts who can handle the power. The break is inconsistent, so you’ll need patience.

The 14th and 15th of August keep that same pattern—4 ft south swell, 15-16 seconds, strong energy (over 1000), but the wind is a strong breeze, 25 mph. It’s a kite-surfing setup more than a paddle-surfing one. The 16th of August, Sunday, the swell drops to 3 ft from the south, and the energy is moderate (608). The wind is still fresh, and the conditions are poor.

So, bottom line: if you’re after a clean glassy session, your only real shot is Tuesday the 4th of August in the afternoon. After that, it’s a waiting game until the 12th, when the energy picks up but the wind ruins the quality. The second week is promising in size but messy in wind. I’d keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, that Tuesday afternoon is your best bet.

Rusty.

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