Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – the next 16 days are a mixed bag. We’ve got a long dry spell starting off, with not much to get excited about until the later part of the window. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The only break on offer is Nimitz Beach, a reef setup that’s inconsistent and best for beginners. Kicking off Monday, August 17th, we’ve got small S swell around 3 ft, but it’s pretty marginal with a cross-off wind. The combined energy is weak (594), and honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for. Tuesday and Wednesday are even worse, with poor surf and tiny waves. The wind stays moderate, but the swell drops off to nothing.

We then hit a real flat spell from Thursday, August 20th through to Saturday, August 22nd morning – knee-high slop at best, with cross-on winds making it messy. The combined energy is in the low 400s, which is weak. But then Saturday afternoon (August 22nd) is the first real highlight of the outlook. The wind eases to a gentle cross-off breeze, and the swell lifts to 2 ft from the SW at 16 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, so the waves will have some shape and energy, with clean conditions. The combined energy is 368 – still moderate, but it’s the best we’ve seen. This is the standout for the first week, but keep in mind the break is inconsistent, so you might have to wait for sets.

Sunday, August 23rd, is a write-off – short-period E swell at 4 ft with a cross-chop and poor surf. Monday, August 24th, is marginal again with small SSW swell.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. From Tuesday, August 25th, we see a pulse of easterly swell building. Tuesday morning hits 6 ft from the E with a short 8-second period and moderate cross-off wind. The combined energy is 724 (moderate), but it’s a bit short-period and choppy. Wednesday, August 26th, is where the real standout of the entire forecast sits. Wednesday morning has 7 ft from the E at 8 seconds, but the combined energy jumps to 1093 (strong) – that’s proper grunt. The wind is cross-off at 30 km/h, keeping it clean.<｜image｜>. This is a big, powerful swell, and it’s gonna be too much for beginners. Only experts should be out there. The short period means it’ll be a bit crumbly, but the energy is undeniable. Wednesday afternoon sees a shift to S swell at 4 ft with a 12-second period and combined energy of 1116, still strong.

Thursday, August 27th, keeps the big swell rolling with 8 ft from the E at 8 seconds in the morning, combined energy at 1553 (very strong), but a cross-shore wind adds some chop. The afternoon eases a bit to 8 ft with cleaner cross-off wind. That’s a solid day for experts only.

After that, the swell fades fast. Friday, August 28th, through to Monday, September 1st, we’re back to small, poor surf with combined energy mostly under 500. The wind stays moderate to fresh cross-off, but there’s just not enough swell to get excited about. Tuesday, September 1st, does show a pulse of 7 ft from the E at 10 seconds with cross-off wind and combined energy at 923 (moderate), but it’s a long way out, so treat that as a promising maybe.

So, to sum it up: the best bet is Saturday afternoon, August 22nd, for a clean, long-period SW swell, and then Wednesday, August 26th, for a big, powerful E swell for experts. The rest is mostly flat or marginal.

Rusty.

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