Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be real with you about the next couple of weeks. It’s going to be a bit of a waiting game for most of it, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The surf is small and pretty average for a long stretch, but the conditions clean up nicely towards the end. Let’s get into it.

The first few days are pretty slim pickings at Nimitz Beach (Island of Hawaii). We’ve got a small, long-period groundswell pushing in from the southwest, but it’s just not doing much. Monday the 14th kicks off with a tiny 1ft wave and a 24-second period that’s just too long and weak to break properly on this reef setup. The energy is weak, coming in at 163, and while the morning is clean with a light east cross-offshore breeze, it’s a flat, glassy lake out there. Not worth the paddle.

The swell fills in a little from Tuesday through Thursday, but it’s still marginal. We’re looking at 3ft to 3ft waves, with the period dropping a bit, which is a slight improvement. The energy is moderate at best, around 524 to 645. The winds stay cross-offshore, keeping things clean, but it’s just small, mushy, and inconsistent. You’ll be fighting for scraps if you go out.

Friday the 18th sees the energy jump up to a strong range, hitting 1075 in the morning, but the swell is still only around 4ft. The problem is the wind swings more to the east, becoming a full cross-shore and putting some lumpy chop on the surface. It’s a bit of a mess. That jump in energy is just a longer period mixing in, but it doesn't translate to proper surfable waves at this spot. The period is short, around 17 seconds.

The weekend and the start of the following week keep the same story going. Saturday the 19th through Monday the 21st, we’re still stuck with that 3ft to 3ft, short-period SW swell. The winds are up, hitting 22 mph, even if they are cross-offshore and keeping things clean. The energy is still strong, with three-digit values up in the 800s and 900s, but it’s a lot of wind for not much wave. There’s a lot of push but no real shape.

Then we get a bit of a lull on Tuesday the 22nd. The swell drops back down to 3ft, the period falls off a cliff to 12-13 seconds, and the energy drops back down to the low 290s. It’s officially poor. The forecast has nothing for us here.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. A new, better swell is on the radar for Wednesday the 23rd, but it comes with a catch. The direction swings around to the east and the period is short, only 10-11 seconds. This pushes the wave height up to 6ft to 6ft, but it’s a short-period windswell at a reef break. It could be a bit crumbly and sectiony. Not the best, but there’s some size. The energy is strong at 987, but the quality is still questionable.

The final real standout is the run from Friday the 26th through to the end of the forecast on Tuesday the 29th. The SW swell settles back down to a clean 3ft, but the period is back up, hitting 14-18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The winds are the real story here. We get light, variable winds and some true glassy mornings. Saturday the 26th looks like the pick of the lot, with a 3 mph west wind and glassy conditions, and the energy at a solid 531. The water temp is sitting at a normal 81°, so no surprises there.

Sunday the 27th has a small offshore north wind in the afternoon at 9 mph, which will groom it perfectly. Then Monday and Tuesday mornings are nearly glassy again, with clean lines. This is the window you’ve been waiting for. It’s not epic, but it’s clean, fun, and the most surfable of the whole stretch. The swell direction is SSW, which is the optimum for this spot, so it should be breaking nicely on the reef.

So, bottom line: don’t get wet until Friday the 25th. That’s when the conditions finally align for a proper surf. The energy and swell are moderate, but clean, glassy conditions will make it worth the wait. The setups with those strong winds and short-period waves look like they’d be more fun for a kite surfer than a paddler.

Keep an eye on that last week; it's the one that promises some fun.

Rusty, out.

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