Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Look, I’m gonna level with you. For the first week and a half, Nimitz Beach is a hard pass. The trade winds are blowing strong, and while the wave faces are clean, the swell is messy and mostly wind-driven from the east. The combined energy is moderate at best, hitting 824 (moderate) on Friday morning, but the swell is a short-period 2ft from the SW, and the wind is a stiff 25 mph cross-off. It’s not surfable. Friday afternoon bumps up to 6ft from the east, but the period drops to 8 seconds – that’s weak, choppy junk. The energy is 905 (moderate), but the conditions are poor.

Saturday morning, July 31st, the swell gets bigger – 10ft from the east, but that’s too much for beginners, and the period is still a short 8 seconds. The energy is high at 1297 (strong), but the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-off. It’s marginal at best, and honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The trend continues through the weekend and into the next week – small, weak swells, or big, blown-out ones. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

There’s a real gap here. From July 31st right through to August 14th, there’s nothing you’d want to paddle out for. The wind is almost always cross-off or cross, and the swell is either too small, too short-period, or both. Even the long-period swells that show up (like 16 seconds on August 10th) are only 3ft and hit with a cross-chop. Not worth it.

Finally, on August 14th, Friday afternoon, we get a glimmer. The wind switches to a light WNW at 3 mph, almost glassy. The swell is 2ft from the south with a long 19-second period, and the combined energy is 668 (moderate). The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” For a reef break, that long period (over 15 seconds) is a big plus – it’ll wrap in nicely and offer some proper shape. This is the standout of the whole window. It’s a small wave, but it’ll be clean, and the crowd factor at Nimitz Beach is “sometimes,” so you might have it to yourself. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

The next morning, August 15th, Saturday, the swell is 3ft from the south, period 16 seconds, but the wind shifts back onshore from the SSE. The energy is a solid 889 (moderate), but that onshore wind kills it. So your window is really just that Friday afternoon.

That’s it. A long blank run, then one brief, clean window late in the game. Keep an eye on it, forecasts can change, but as it stands, mark your calendar for August 14th afternoon.

Rusty.

Read more