Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you straight up. The next couple of weeks around here are gonna be a real grind. We’re looking at a whole bunch of days where the waves are just too weak and jumbled to really get you excited. You’ll be scratching for anything rideable, and honestly, most of the time you’re gonna be better off doing something else.

For the first week and a half, from Tuesday the 15th right through to Monday the 21st, it’s pretty much the same story. Swell is hanging in that 3ft to 4ft range, coming from the SSW or SW, with a decent period of 15-20 seconds. That long period is good for shape, but the size just isn’t there to push things over the edge. The winds are mostly cross-offshore, which keeps the surface clean, but it’s not enough to make these tiny waves feel fun. We’re in the moderate energy zone for most of this stretch – the combined energy sits between 524 and 1043, which is just nothing special. Now, there’s a slight bump in energy on the 18th, hitting 1043, but the swell is still under 4ft, so don’t get your hopes up. It’s all rating as marginal, and the crowds might be out because it’s just so small, but it’s not worth fighting for.

Then things get weird. On Tuesday the 22nd, the swell direction completely swings around to the east, and the period drops off a cliff to a short 8-9 seconds. That’s junk. The height bumps up a bit – 5ft in the morning, 6ft in the afternoon – but it’s not the kind of swell we want. It’s all cross-offshore wind, so it’s clean looking, but the actual surf quality is just poor. This is over 5ft, so it’s already too much for beginners, and with that short, weak period, it’s just a messy, powerless wall. The energy is all over the place, but the wave comment says “poor surf conditions.” I’d give that a miss.

Wednesday the 23rd is a bit more of the same – still east in direction, with the period slowly crawling back up to 10 seconds. The swell is up to 6ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, which is solidly in the “expert only” territory for most folks. And while the energy numbers climb up there with the 1222 reading in the afternoon, the quality is still questionable. It’s a bit raw and unrefined, not the kind of clean lines you want.

After that, the swell starts fading back down. From Thursday the 24th through to the end of the month, we’re back to the small stuff, 3ft to 4ft, mostly from the SSW again. The winds stay cross-offshore, so the surface is clean, but the swell is weak and the energy numbers drop back down below 650. It’s all marginal at best, and there’s even a day with a “poor surf conditions” rating on the 27th.

So, if you’re looking for the best on offer in this whole 16-day window, you’re not going to find much. The first ten days are all in the “meh” category. The only real standout, and I say this with a heavy dose of “it’s still not great,” is the brief bump on Wednesday the 23rd. We’ve got the biggest swell of the period at 6ft to 6ft, and a combined energy reading of 1222 in the afternoon. That’s the most power we’ll see. But that east swell direction on a reef break that’s exposed to the south is a real mismatch. It’s not going to be pretty. It’s strictly for the experts, and even then, you’re likely to be disappointed. The period is only 10 seconds, so it’s not going to have that heavy, grinding power you want. It’s more like a short, steep, and somewhat sectiony wave. If you’re a confident charger who can handle a bit of a sloppy affair, that's the pick of a very poor bunch.

But honestly, I wouldn’t even get too amped for that. The first ten days are a wash-out for anyone with high hopes. The last week is just gutless. Around here, this kind of flat, lackluster run is pretty normal, so don’t stress too much. The conditions might change, but for now, keep your board in the car and maybe go for a paddle.

Alright, stay salty.

Rusty

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