Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gonna be honest with you, looking at this stretch ahead for Nimitz Beach, it’s a bit of a tough one. The forecast is a long, quiet run with hardly any windows that’ll get the heart pumping. We’re looking at a 16-day outlook, but the first proper nod doesn’t come until Saturday the 8th, and even then, it’s marginal at best. There are big gaps of days with nothing good to report.

Let’s start with what we’ve got. The water temp is sitting right around 81°F, which is bang on average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The first time we see anything worth a mention is Saturday morning, August 8th. A little 2ft swell from the SSW, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, and the energy is moderate at 524. The wind is a fresh cross-offshore breeze from the ENE at 19 mph, which will keep the faces clean. It’s a reef break, so that long period could actually work nicely here, but it’s inconsistent, and the height is tiny. It’s more of a beginner-friendly wave, but the crowds are possible here. This one is still just a marginal call.

Sunday the 9th sees a bump in size, but it’s a messy one. Morning has 4ft from the E, but with a short, crumbly period of only 7 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell. The energy is moderate (514). Wind is cross-off, but it’s a short period, junky wave. The afternoon jumps to 5ft from the E, still short period at 8 seconds, and the wind ramps up to a fresh 22 mph. Lots of energy (627) but it’s blown out and messy. Still marginal.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are no good. The surf is poor, with cross-shore winds and chop on Monday, while Tuesday has a bit more size (3ft) and better winds, but the quality is still just marginal.

The best chance, and I mean the only real standout in this whole outlook, is looking like Wednesday the 12th. The swell picks up to 3ft in the morning, and 4ft in the afternoon, from the S. The period is a solid 18 seconds, so it’s a proper groundswell. The energy is strong (1009-1069). The wind is cross-offshore, clean. For a reef break, this is the best combo of size, period, and clean conditions. It’s a beginner-friendly wave, but on a day like this, it might be enough for a fun little session. The crowds are possible. Afternoon looks a touch better. This is the one to aim for.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are a step down. The swell is similar (4ft from S) but the wind is a fresh 22 mph, and the quality drops. Friday the 14th afternoon gets a weird spike of 7ft from the E with a short 8-second period, and the wind is a strong 25 mph. That’s just a blown-out, choppy mess, and at that size, it’s only for experts, but the wind is terrible.

The rest of the run from Saturday the 15th through to Thursday the 20th is poor. The winds are strong, swell is either small or short-period, and the combined energy is generally weak. A couple of days (17th and 18th) show 6ft to 6ft from the E, but again, short period and strong winds. It’s not worth paddling out for.

So, to wrap it up: it’s a bleak couple of weeks with only one real bright spot. That Wednesday the 12th is your best bet for a clean, long-period S swell. The rest, you’re better off waiting for the charts to change.

Rusty.

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