Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Nimitz Beach over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first week and a half is a slow grind. From Friday the 11th through to Sunday the 20th, we’re lookin’ at tiny, weak waves that are just barely surfable. The energy is low, mostly in the 100 to 400 range, and a lot of these sessions are getting a big "meh" from the crew. It’s not totally flat, but it’s the kind of stuff you’d only paddle out for if you’re desperate for a float.

Friday the 11th morning, we’ve got a clean 2ft swell from the SW with a long 16-second period. Looks pretty on the surface with that cross-off breeze, but the energy is weak (403) and the call is marginal. The water temp is a warm 81°, which is about what you’d expect for this time of year. That long period will make for some drawn-out lines, but with the tiny size, it’s just not doing much.

The weekend (12th and 13th) doesn’t get any better. Swell drops to 2ft, period stays long, but the energy fades into the 100s. Sunday afternoon the 13th offers a brief moment of glassy conditions with a 1ft SSW swell, but it’s just too small to get excited about.

Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 16th stays stubbornly in the 1ft to 3ft range. Winds are cross-off and clean, but the swell is just a whisper.

Now, here’s the standout. The best surf of the whole window comes on Tuesday the 15th in the morning. We get a clean 3ft SW groundswell with a solid 20-second period. The wave energy jumps to 620 (moderate energy), and with a light cross-off breeze from the ENE, the conditions are about as good as it gets for a small day. This is the highlight – clean, long-period lines at Nimitz. If you can sneak away Tuesday morning, that’s your window. It is an inconsistent break though, so you’ll be waiting between sets, but when they come, they’ll be worth it.

We see a real shift starting Thursday the 17th. The swell jumps to 6ft from the E, but the period drops to a jumbled 8 to 10 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell. The energy is strong (over 1000), but it’s short-period and choppy with a fresh cross-off breeze. This size (6ft) is getting into the zone where it’s not for beginners. Friday the 18th through the 20th hangs in that 3ft to 4ft range, still from the SSW, with solid energy (800–1200 range), but the winds stay fresh and cross-off. It’s surfable, clean, but never really firing.

The end of the run – Wednesday the 23rd afternoon – shows a clean 5ft E swell with a 9-second period and light cross-off breeze. Energy is strong (787), and it’s getting a good call. That’s another session to pencil in.

But the real late-period potential comes on Friday the 25th afternoon. A 6ft E swell, 10-second period, and very light cross-on wind from the SSE. The energy jumps to 1134. That’s solid, borderline strong energy. The winds are light enough to keep it clean-ish. This is promising, but it’s a long way out – two weeks from now – so keep an eye on it. It could be a proper day if the wind co-operates.

Saturday the 26th morning hangs on with 5ft E swell and a light cross breeze. Not a standout, but a reasonable wind-down to the period.

If you’re a paddler, the best bets are Tuesday morning the 15th and Wednesday afternoon the 23rd. The bigger stuff on the 17th and 25th is more for the advanced crew, especially with that short-period windswell making things lumpy. For the kite crew, the bigger, windier days around the 17th through the 19th (6ft, strong energy, and 18+ mph cross-off winds) will look a lot more fun than for a paddle surfer.

Stay patient, get that Tuesday morning session, and keep an eye on the end of the month.

Rusty.

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