Nimitz Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

First up, if you’re looking to get wet on Oahu’s south shore, we’ve got a bit of a waiting game on our hands. The early part of this forecast is pretty average – we’re looking at small, inconsistent swell and a lot of cross-off wind from the ENE most days, which isn’t doing us any favours. Things start to pick up from Wednesday the 12th with a moderate energy pulse (combined energy 1044), but it’s still only around 3ft and those cross-off breezes keep the surface bumpy.

Through Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th, the swell sticks around 4ft to 5ft but the wind stays fresh from the ENE at 19 mph, cross-off, so it’s not the cleanest. The combined energy is solid – in the 700-1100 range – but the conditions are marginal.

Now, Saturday the 15th is where we see some size. The swell jumps to 7ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, with a short period of 12-13 seconds. That’s a lot of energy hitting the reef (1569-2546 combined), but that short period means it’ll be a bit walled up and not the best shape. Plus, the wind is still cross-off from the NE at 16-19 mph – clean face but a bit of bump. That size is really only for experienced surfers.

The real standout, and the one I’d circle on your calendar, is Sunday the 16th. We finally get a shift – lighter winds from the N, offshore at 6-9 mph, and a clean 3ft south swell running with a lovely 16-second period. Combined energy is 422, so not huge, but the wave quality will be silky, the period will give you proper lines, and it’s not too big. This is the best surf of the window. Expect good conditions all day.

After that, it’s a bit of a slide. From Monday the 17th through to the end, the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, and the swell drops off. The surf gets small and messy – poor conditions, cross-chop, and not really worth paddling out. The energy levels drop into the low hundreds.

For the second week, there’s a flicker on Friday the 21st with some light cross-off winds and a 3ft SSW swell, but it’s still marginal. Then Sunday the 23rd shows a pulse of 5ft from the east with a very short period of 7 seconds – that’s not going to be pretty, just lumpy and quick. The Monday the 24th brings 6ft from the east, but again that 8-second period and strong cross-off wind makes it a messy, bumpy affair. Not the kind of day you write home about.

So, bottom line: if you can, hit Sunday the 16th at Nimitz Beach. Offshore wind, clean, long-period groundswell – that’s the real deal. Everything else is a lot of marginal surf and cross-breezes. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so get in early.

Water temp is sitting at 81°F – about normal for this time of year, no anomaly to worry about.

Rusty

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