Mablethorpe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long hard look at what the models are serving up for the next couple of weeks. It's a grim picture for the most part, I'm not gonna sugar-coat it. We're looking at a long, dry spell of tiny, weak surf, so we've got a big gap before anything even gets a pulse.

For the first ten days or so, from now right through to the 11th of September, it’s a write-off. We’re talking ankle-snappers and knee-high dribble, with the combined swell energy barely getting out of single digits for days on end—stuff like 8 or 15 on the scale, which is basically flat. The winds are often offshore, which would be great if there was any swell to groom, but with heights stuck between 0.3 ft and 2 ft, there’s just nothing to work with. The water temp is about 67°, and let me tell you, that’s a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year, which feels very unusual.

Now, the only flicker of life pops up on Friday morning, the 11th of September. The swell finally shows a bit of intent, jumping to 5 ft from the North with a short 8-second period. The combined energy leaps up to a moderate 451, which sounds big but the short period means it’s going to be a bit soft and bumpy. The wind is a clean cross-off from the NNW, so it’ll be ridable, but the guide calls it "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." It’s not a classic, and at 5 ft, it's pushing the limit for beginners. Mablethorpe is a beach break, so with this short-period swell, it won't have any real shape. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially as Friday afternoon gets choppy.

After that brief spike, it’s back to tiny waves. Saturday the 12th brings a 2 ft North swell with a very long 13-second period, but it’s blowing directly onshore from the ENE, making it a total mess. That long period groundswell is wasted on a beach break like this; it’ll just break too straight. The rest of the outlook from there on out is more of the same tiny, weak surf, with combined energy dropping back to 42 and below.

So, the standout, if you can even call it that, is that Friday the 11th morning session. It’s the only bit of energy in the whole 16 days. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’s all we’ve got. For the rest of it, you’re better off leaving the boards at home.

Rusty.

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