Mablethorpe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this out there. Look, I’ve stared at the charts for the next couple of weeks, and I’ve got to be straight with you: the surf is pretty grim. There’s a long, boring stretch of nothing on the horizon.

For the first week or so, you’re gonna see tiny, weak waves rolling in at Mablethorpe – we’re talking 0.3ft to 2ft. It’s mostly straight north swell, which is the wrong direction for this spot. The energy is just pitiful, with combined values mostly in the single digits or low twenties – that’s nothing but a ripple. It’s poor surf conditions, plain and simple. There’s a lot of wind, sometimes offshore, but with waves that small, it doesn’t matter. You’d be fighting for ankle-biters.

The water is a balmy 67° at the start, which is a massive 7° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a seriously unusual warm patch, like a bath. But it’s not going to help the waves.

Now, there is one little blip. On Saturday the 5th, the swell does pick up slightly to around 3ft, but with an 8-second period. The energy gets a little better – we’re seeing values around 70-76 – still weak, but it's the best of a bad bunch. The morning looks a bit lumpy with that WNW wind, but the afternoon swings to a light NW breeze. It’s listed as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Honestly, that’s the only thing even close to a wave in that first week, and that’s the honest truth.

After that, it drops right back down to nothing. From the 6th through the 8th, we’re back to 0.3ft to 2ft slop. There’s a long, dead gap here where you just won’t want to bother.

Then, on the 9th of September, the energy finally starts to show a pulse. The swell jumps a touch to 2ft, and the combined energy hits 109 – that’s the first time we see a three-digit number. The period also stretches to 10 seconds, which is a little more promising. The wind is a bit cross-onshore, so it’ll be choppy, but there’s something there.

The 10th of September is probably the pick of the second week. The morning is glassy – I mean proper glassy – with a 2ft swell and a 9-second period. The energy is only 39, so it’s still small, but clean. If you’re desperate, that’s your window for a few knee-high rollers with zero texture on them.

The period after that starts to fall apart again. The swell direction swings around to the east and southeast, which is not good for this break, and the period drops right off to 4 or 5 seconds. That’s just windswash. By the 14th, the wind is up and onshore, and it’s just a lumpy mess.

So here’s the bottom line. There are no standout days here. The best on offer is that glassy morning on the 10th, but it’s small. The Saturday afternoon on the 5th is the other option, but it’s still very ordinary. The forecast is poor, and there’s no sign of any proper swell. It’s a real blank run for the area. Forecasts can change, and with water this warm, sometimes it stirs things up, but as it stands, I’d be finding something else to do.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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