Mablethorpe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for Mablethorpe over the next 16 days is a real heartbreaker. There’s not a single solid surf option in the whole window. The swell is small, the wind is usually wrong, and the quality is just not there. We’ve got a long, dry run ahead.

First up, the water is running much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 68°F with a big positive anomaly of 8°F. That’s very unusual, but it’s the only standout thing about this forecast.

We start off on Friday, 21 August, with a small 4ft northwest swell, but it’s only 8 seconds period and the wind is a fresh 16 mph cross-offshore. The wave energy is weak to moderate (149), and the conditions are clean but the surf quality is poor. That afternoon the wind picks up and swings cross, making it even messier. Saturday and Sunday look similar – small, weak swell, and the wind is never quite right. The best chance of anything surfable comes Sunday morning, 23 August, with a tiny 3ft northwest swell, 8 seconds, and a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind. The energy is weak (90), and the waves are described as surfable but very ordinary. That’s about as good as it gets.

From Monday, 24 August, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at knee-high slop or less for days on end, with onshore winds most of the time. The energy readings are tiny – often in the single digits or low tens. The period is short, too, mostly 5 to 7 seconds. There’s a brief uptick on Tuesday, 25 August, with a 4ft east swell, but it’s a 6-second windswell with onshore wind, making it a total mess. The combined energy is moderate (123) but totally ruined by the wind.

After that, it’s a long, bleak stretch. From the 26th of August right through to the 5th of September, the swell is consistently below 2ft, often showing as 0.3ft or flat. The wind is either cross, cross-on, or onshore, and the wave energy is negligible. There are long gaps of several days with no recommendations at all – just poor surf conditions and small, choppy waves. The few times the wind goes offshore, like on the 29th of August, the swell is only 0.7ft to 1.0ft with a 7 to 11 second period – too small to do anything with.

Honestly, for a spot like Mablethorpe, a blank run like this is not unusual. It’s a fairly exposed beach, but it needs a proper swell and good wind alignment to come alive. This 16-day window just doesn’t have it. If you’re looking for a paddle, you’re out of luck. The setup might be more interesting for kite surfing on those windy days, but for a surfboard, it’s a no-go.

Keep checking back, though – forecasts can change. Rusty.

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