Mablethorpe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a tough one. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle.

Overall Pattern: Over the next 16 days, the surf is going to be a real struggle. From now until mid-August, we’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak waves and poor conditions. The combined swell energy is almost always in the weak category (values like 8, 9, 4, 3), with a few brief periods of moderate energy, but the wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, ruining any chance of a clean wave. This is a classic blank run for the area.

The First Recommendation: We’re kicking off on Friday, July 31st at Mablethorpe. The swell is a tiny 0.7 ft from the north, with a short period of 8 seconds and weak energy (8). The morning has a light 6 mph NNW cross-offshore wind, so it’ll be clean, but there’s just no power. It’s basically a flat day for a beginner to bob around in. The afternoon gets worse with a 12 mph onshore wind from the east.

Saturday, August 1st offers a glimmer with a 0.7 ft north swell and a light offshore wind in the morning, keeping it clean. But the period drops to 6 seconds, and the energy is next to nothing (4). It’s barely surfable.

Sunday, August 2nd through Monday, August 3rd are a washout – onshore winds, short period chop, and the swell barely crawls to 3 ft and 4 ft, but with onshore winds, it’s a messy, choppy mess. The energy finally climbs to 87 on the 3rd afternoon, but it’s onshore and ugly.

The Yearning for a Change: We get a slight bump in energy on Tuesday, August 4th (180 in the morning, 156 in the afternoon) with a 4 ft NE swell, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. Not a day to get excited about.

The Standout (If You Can Call It That): The best the 16 days has to offer is Saturday, August 8th. The swell picks up to 6 ft from the ENE with a period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy hits 262 – that’s moderate energy. But the wind is a moderate 12 mph from the ENE, which is cross-onshore. This is going to be a lumpy, choppy, messy beach break. The size is bordering on too big for beginners, but the quality is so poor it’s only really for the most dedicated. It’s going to be more of a battle than a joy. The water temperature is about average for the time of year.

The Rest: After the 8th, it drops back into the weak zone. The wind stays mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell fades to 1.0 ft to 3 ft for the rest of the run. Friday, August 14th has a strong 22 mph cross-shore wind that will make it a complete mess.

The Glimmer of Glass: On Wednesday, August 12th, we get a morning of glassy conditions at Mablethorpe with a 2 ft NNE swell, but the period is short (5 seconds) and the energy is weak (23). It’ll be clean as a whistle, but you’ll be waiting for the one tiny, weak wave that might stand up. It’s a long shot.

The Bottom Line: There are no good surf options in this 16-day window. The swell is too small, the wind is wrong, and the quality is poor. It’s a classic North Sea close-out. For the beach and exposed setup here, with the wind and swell, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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