Mablethorpe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is shaping up to be one of those quiet spells where you’re better off finding a longboard and a lake than pretending there’s real surf. The next week or so is looking pretty flat and messy, so don’t hold your breath.

We’ve got a long stretch of almost nothing on the cards. From now through the 19th, it’s mostly tiny, weak swell under about 1 foot, with a lot of poor conditions and onshore winds. You could paddle out, but you’d be doing more floating than surfing. The offshore winds on the 17th and 18th are nice, but there’s just no push behind them. Combined energy is only in the single digits and low teens (3-14), so that’s about as weak as it gets.

Things finally start to wake up a little around Thursday the 20th. The swell bumps up to a knee-high 3 feet from the north-northeast, with a period of 8 seconds. It’s surfable but nothing to write home about. The morning looks clean with light offshore winds, and that combined energy jumps to 109, so there’s at least a bit of grunt there. The issues are that this break, Mablethorpe, is inconsistent and the swell direction is straight north, which isn’t its optimum (it prefers N). It’ll be ordinary, but you could get a few grovelly ones if you’re keen.

The real standout window looks like Sunday the 23rd. The swell builds to about 4 feet from the north, with an 8-second period. The combined energy reaches 157-169, which is the strongest we’ll see all week. But here’s the catch—the wind is howling onshore from the east-northeast, making it choppy as hell. This is when I’d say the setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. For the surfer, it’s going to be a mess.

After that, it fades out again. The rest of the month sees the swell drop back below 3 feet, with onshore winds and just ordinary conditions. The 27th has a brief mention of a clean morning with offshore wind, but the swell is only 2 feet with a short period, so it’s not going to be a classic. The end of the month gets rough and flat again.

One thing to note: the water temp on the 14th is about 68°F, which is a massive 7°F warmer than average for this time of year. That’s very unusual, so you won’t need a thick suit—that’s a positive, at least.

So, bottom line: if you’re desperate, the 20th morning is your best bet for a clean, grovelly session. The 23rd has the most swell but is blown out. Everything else is a blank. It’s a poor run for a spot that’s already inconsistent, but that’s how it goes sometimes. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but I wouldn’t be rearranging your life for this one.

Rusty.

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