Mablethorpe Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a brew, mate. Rusty here, and I’ve had a proper look at the charts for our local stretch. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a grim outlook for the next week and a half. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with barely a ripple.

Starting from now, the first ten days or so are a write-off. From Sunday the 12th right through to around Wednesday the 22nd of July, it’s flat to tiny, and what little bump there is gets smashed by cross-onshore winds. The combined energy barely gets into double figures, often sitting below 100 (like 47 on Sunday morning), which is a clear sign of weak, choppy, and generally hopeless surf. The water temp is sitting at a balmy 68°, which is 10° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s freakishly warm, but it doesn’t help the waves one bit.

We finally get a glimmer of hope on Thursday the 23rd of July. Mablethorpe wakes up to a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the WNW and a building swell from the north. The morning shows a 5ft swell with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 229 (moderate energy). It’s described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” but it’s the best we’ve seen in a fortnight. The wind is light and clean, so the line-up will be tidy. This is a beginner-friendly size, but just be aware it’s inconsistent here, so you’ll be waiting for sets.

The standout, however, is Friday the 24th of July. The afternoon session is the pick of the entire 16-day window. Mablethorpe gets a solid 5ft swell from the north, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 356 (moderate wave energy), and importantly, the wind switches to a light cross-offshore from the NW, leaving the surf clean. The forecast actually says “expect good surf conditions” – that’s as good as it gets from this data. The swell direction is straight north, which is the optimum direction for this break. It’s not too big for the average surfer, but the crowds could be there, so get in early.

After that, the weekend of the 25th and 26th sees the wind turn nasty again, with a strong cross-shore and lumpy conditions, and the energy drops right back off. The 2ft clean surf on the 26th morning is a might-have-been, but it’s too small to get excited about.

So, to sum it up: you’ve got a huge gap of flatness until Thursday the 23rd. The only real window is Thursday afternoon and especially Friday the 24th afternoon. That’s your one and only standout. Don’t hold your breath for the rest.

Rusty.

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