Lajao (Baia dos Golfinhos) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Well, it’s a pretty grim run for this stretch. The whole 16-day window is almost a write-off for good paddle surfing at Lajao (Baia dos Golfinhos). The water’s sitting about average for late August, so no wild surprises temperature-wise.

Starting from Sunday the 23rd of August right through the week, we’ve got a constant SE cross-off wind, mostly in the 12 to 18 mph range. The swell is hanging around 3 ft to 5 ft but it’s short period – mostly 6-7 seconds – so it lacks any real shape or push. Combined swell energy is weak to moderate (between 83 and 421), but the poor surf conditions score says it all: this is not a time to get excited. The first glimmer of anything remotely rideable comes on Thursday the 27th of August morning, when the swell pushes to 4 ft from the east with an 8-second period, and the energy bumps up to 276. But even then it’s just “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”. The wind is still a moderate breeze from the SE, cross-off, so it’s clean at least, but the waves are tiny and weak.

That Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th of August mornings are the only times the score even hits a 1 out of 10. The rest of the 16 days? Solid zeros. From Saturday the 29th of August onward, the wind swings more cross-shore from the east, adding a side-chop to the mix, and the swell stays around 4 ft to 6 ft with an 8-second period. The combined energy climbs into the moderate range (up to 442 on Friday the 4th of September), and the swell direction is east – which is not the optimum NE direction for this exposed reef. The break is very consistent, but it just isn’t happening with the wind and swell combo. For a beginner-friendly reef like this, 5 ft+ with cross-shore wind and short period is messy, not fun.

There’s one faint standout, but it’s a long way out: Thursday the 27th of August morning, when the swell hits 4 ft from the east at 8 seconds, with clean cross-off wind. The combined energy of all swells directed here is 276, so moderate energy, but it’s only a 1/10 – marginal at best. If you’re desperate, that’s your best window, but it’s still a tough call for a reef that really needs NE swell and offshore SSW wind. With the swell coming from the east and the wind cross-off from the southeast, you won’t get those classic clean lines. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most days out.

The gap of zero-score days from Sunday the 23rd right through to Wednesday the 27th of August is five days. Then you get two marginal days, and then another long stretch of zeros from Saturday the 29th of August through to Sunday the 7th of September. That’s a ten-day blank run. For this area, when the wind locks in from the SE and the swell is short-period and misdirected, a long quiet spell is pretty normal. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a tough skin-crawl.

Rusty.

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