Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Kimmeridge Bay in the coming weeks. I’ve got to be straight with you – this is a tough one. The 16-day window is almost a complete write-off, so don’t get your hopes up.

We’re kicking off on Tuesday the 15th of September and, honestly, the first week is grim. For the first six days, from the 15th through the 20th, we’ve got a persistent run of poor surf conditions. The wind is a real problem, mostly swinging from cross to cross-off from the WNW or WSW, with speeds running from 12 mph right up to a nasty 25 mph on Thursday the 17th. That’s going to make a mess of the water. The swell is there, but it’s weak. On the 15th, we have a combined wave energy of just 36, and it’s a short, choppy 4-second period from the WSW, bringing only 3 ft. It just doesn't have any push. The water is a balmy 67°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – over 5°F warmer – so the temp is a bit weird.

We get a slight blip on Sunday the 20th morning. The wind swings to a light NW at 6 mph, making it clean, and the swell drops to 2 ft from the WSW with a 5-second period. The energy is only 35, so it’s tiny, but you could paddle out for a few nothing waves. That’s the best of the first week, and it’s not saying much. Then it goes back to near-flat conditions for a few days.

The real kicker is this whole period – it’s just not working. The swell direction is WSW but that doesn’t really fit the optimum SW direction for the reef here, and the wind is constantly in the wrong place. The combined energy stays mostly in the double digits, well below 100, telling you there’s no power in the water.

From Monday the 21st of September right through until Sunday the 27th, we have a gap of about 6 days with almost nothing surfable. The swell drops to 0.3 ft and 0.7 ft with very long periods around 12 or 14 seconds – that’s groundswell, but there’s no height to it, so it’s just a glassy ocean with no waves. The cross-off winds on some of those mornings would make perfect conditions if there were any swell, but there isn’t.

Finally, on the morning of Sunday the 27th of September, we get a slight flicker. The surf forecast shows surfable waves but very ordinary conditions, scoring a 1 out of 10. The swell is 3 ft from the E at 5 seconds, with a combined energy of 88. The wind is light, 6 mph from the ENE, coming cross-off. It’s clean, but the period is short, so the waves will be weak and crumbly. That’s the only moment in the entire 16 days that even gets close to being worth a look, but it’s still a very long way from good. The rest of the period is full of flat spells, strong winds (like 28 mph from the W on the 29th) or just messy chop.

So, the bottom line: there are no standouts here. This is one of those blank runs that happens. Don’t bother for the first ten days. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on that Sunday the 27th morning for a quick paddle, but don’t expect much. Otherwise, it’s flat or blown out.

Rusty.

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