Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gonna be straight with you – looking at Kimmeridge Bay over the next 16 days, it’s a tough watch. We’ve got a long, quiet stretch ahead with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The first proper window with any size doesn’t show up until well into the second week, so don’t get your hopes up for a quick fix.

The water is sitting at a balmy 69°, which is a whopping 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s seriously unusual, like the ocean forgot what season it is.

For the first week and a half, the energy is just pathetic. We’re talking combined swell energy readings in the low dozens and even single digits – that’s barely a ripple. Winds are mostly cross, cross-on, or just messy, and the swell directions are all over the place with periods so short (3 to 5 seconds) you’ll barely get a push. There’s a few moments of offshore wind, but with swell heights of barely 1ft, it’s not surf. It’s a lake with a bit of breeze. This blank run stretches from now all the way through to the 22nd of August with nothing worth mentioning.

Then, on the 23rd of August, things start to look a bit more interesting but still far from good. The afternoon brings a pulse of 6ft swell from the southwest, with combined energy jumping to 261 (moderate), but the wind is a strong cross-on from the southwest at 22 mph, making it messy and lumpy. Not a great picture.

The real event, if you can call it that, kicks off on Monday the 24th of August. We see a solid 8ft southwest swell rolling in, pushing the combined energy to a strong 471. The problem? It’s accompanied by a strong breeze from the west at 28 mph blowing right across the bay, creating a messy cross-chop. That kind of size (over 8ft) and power is for experts only, and with the wind so wrong, it’s going to be a washing machine. Honestly, with the swell size and the strong cross-shore wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than for a paddle surfer.

Following that, the 25th of August drops to a still-chunky 5ft from the west-southwest, but the energy is still moderate (154) and the wind stays fresh and cross-shore. It’ll be lumpy again.

If you had to pick the one standout – and I use that term loosely – it’s the morning of the 24th of August. The swell is largest at 8ft from the southwest, but even then, the 28 mph cross-wind from the west will trash the surface. There are no easy wins here. For this part of the world, a long blank run like this isn’t unusual. Forecasts can change, but right now, leave the board in the car and save the fuel.

Rusty.

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