Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve taken a good hard look at the 16-day picture for Kimmeridge Bay. I’ve got to be straight with you – this is a bleak stretch. The forecast is showing a whole lot of nothing for the first two weeks, with surf conditions that are mostly poor. There’s a gap of almost 14 days starting now with no real surf on offer, just tiny dribbles and messy winds. The only faint glimmer of hope comes right at the very end of the period, on the 29th of July, but it’s a long way off and not much to get excited about.

Let’s run through it. From Wednesday the 15th of July right through to Tuesday the 28th of July, it’s a desert. You’ve got scraps of swell – we’re talking 0.3 ft to 3 ft, mostly from the east or west with short periods under 8 seconds, which is just windswell trash. The wind is almost always onshore, cross-on, or cross-shore, adding chop and mess to water that’s already flat. The combined energy is weak, barely cracking 54 on the 15th, and often just single digits. There’s a brief moment on the morning of Monday the 20th of July where it goes glassy, but the swell is only 2 ft – not enough to push a ripple. Don’t even think about paddling out.

The water temperature on the 15th of July is sitting at 66°, which is a whopping 6° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a proper anomaly, mate – unusually warm water, but it doesn’t help the waves.

Now, the standout – if you can call it that – is Wednesday the 29th of July. The morning session shows a bit of life. The swell jumps to 6 ft from the WSW, with a period of 6 seconds and a combined energy of 196 – that’s moderate energy, finally. The wind is glassy, with a slight air from the NNE, so it’s clean. The break is a reef, so that longer period (over 11 seconds) isn’t an issue, but 6 seconds is short, so the waves will be a bit crumbly and soft. It’s surfable, but the conditions are still just “ordinary” – not great. The afternoon goes to crap with a cross-onshore wind. The swell direction from the WSW is bang on the optimum SW direction for Kimmeridge Bay, which is a point in its favour. Crowds are often here, so expect company if you go. It’s only for intermediates and up, though – 6 ft is a bit much for beginners.

The 30th of July offers a 4 ft swell from the WSW with a 9-second period and moderate energy (258), but a cross-shore wind from the ESE spoils it. The morning might be worth a look if you’re desperate and the wind stays light, but it’s not a standout.

So, plain and simple: the best (and really only) bet in this whole 16-day window is the morning of the 29th of July. It’s a long-range call, so don’t take it to the bank, but if the forecast holds, there’s a clean, small-to-medium reef wave to be had. Before that, save your petrol and give the bay a miss.

Rusty.

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