Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Kimmeridge Bay has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. I'll be straight with you – it’s a tough outlook. This is a reef setup, and it's very consistent, but the conditions just aren't lining up for a good paddle.

The water is sitting at 69° at the start, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – a solid 7° above average. That’s pretty unusual.

We start off on Monday the 24th of August with absolutely nothing doing. The swell is tiny, and we've got a strong cross-shore wind making a mess of things. Tuesday the 25th sees a bit of a bump in size Tuesday morning, with a 5ft swell from the east and a clean wind state, but the period is a short 6 seconds, so it’s going to be weak and bumpy. The energy reading is 141, which is moderate, but that short period means weak, mushy waves.

Wednesday the 26th has the wind swinging offshore light, but the swell drops right out. It’s flat. Through the rest of the week and into the start of September, we are stuck with small, weak swells and persistent cross-onshore winds. The energy is mostly in the double digits. There’s a slight glimmer on Wednesday the 2nd of September morning, with a clean 4ft swell and a cross-offshore breeze, but the period is only 5 seconds. It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

The real story here is the huge spike in energy around Monday the 7th of September. We’re looking at a 8ft swell from the southwest with a very long period of 19 seconds and energy readings hitting a massive 6,357. That is serious groundswell. The size is pushing beyond intermediate territory and into expert-only zone. The wind is cross-shore, which is not ideal, and the period is so long (over 15 seconds) that this reef break is going to be tricky; these long-period swells tend to unload fast and close out on a setup like this. It’s a powerful but dangerous proposition.

Straight after that, Tuesday the 8th of September morning looks interesting. The swell holds at 8ft from the WSW, but the period drops to a more manageable 7 seconds. The wind goes cross-offshore from the northwest, so it will be clean. The energy is still a strong 668. This is probably the best window for a surfer who knows what they are doing, but even then, that size is only for experienced crew. There’s a chance of crowds here, as it's often busy.

The final week sees the swell drop off and the winds go back to being messy. There is no standout, perfect day in this forecast. The best bet for experts is the morning of the 8th of September, but for everyone else, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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