Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – for this stretch looking out over the next couple of weeks at Kimmeridge Bay, it’s pretty grim. We’ve got a solid 16 days of forecast, but honestly, the surf is so poor that it’s hard to even call it a start. From September 6th right through to September 21st, every single session is rated as poor. That’s a long dry spell.

Let’s break it down. On the morning of the 6th, we’re looking at a tiny 2 ft swell from the SE with a short, weak period of just 3 seconds. The combined energy is a paltry 12, and the wind is a cross-on from the SE at 16 mph. It’s choppy and weak – not worth paddling out. That afternoon stays much the same with a 1 ft swell.

The 7th and 8th bring a bit more size, but the quality isn't there. On Monday the 7th afternoon, we see a 3 ft swell from the WSW, with a period of 13 seconds – that’s a long period groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 249, which is moderate. But the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph, creating a lumpy cross-chop. That’s frustrating. Tuesday the 8th morning has 5 ft of swell from the WSW, but the period is a short 6 seconds, and a strong cross-offshore wind of 19 mph makes it clean but gutless. That combined energy drops to 139. Still, the wind is clean, so it’s not all bad, but the waves are just weak and dumpy.

From the 9th onward, it’s a constant battle. We get a mix of tiny swells, mostly under 3 ft, with periods all over the place – some short, some long. On Wednesday the 9th, a 3 ft swell with an 8-second period from the WSW has a combined energy of 122, but the wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it’s only slightly choppy. It’s a tease, really.

The 10th and 11th see the swell bump up a little. Friday the 11th morning has a 4 ft swell from the WSW with an 8-second period, and the combined energy hits 294 – the strongest we see in the whole run. But the wind is a moderate cross-shore at 12 mph, creating a cross-chop. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s not good.

The 12th of September Saturday has a 5 ft swell from the SW in the afternoon, but the period is a short 5 seconds, and the wind is a moderate cross-on at 16 mph. Choppy and weak.

After that, it all falls apart. From the 13th to the 21st, we’re looking at waves mostly under 2 ft, with the occasional 3 ft spike on the 21st. The winds are often strong, cross-on, or messy. The combined energy figures are nearly all below 50 – that’s weak.

The only real standouts, and I use that term loosely, are the mornings of the 8th and 16th of September, where we get a clean cross-offshore wind from the WNW. On the 8th, that 5 ft swell from the WSW is clean but short period. On the 16th, the swell is a tiny 0.7 ft, so it’s clean but flat. There’s just no power.

For a reef break like Kimmeridge Bay, we need that SW groundswell to line up, and it just doesn’t. The wind is almost never fully offshore (the optimum is N), and the swells that do arrive are either too weak or too chopped up by the wind.

If I had to pick the best on offer, it’s the morning of Tuesday the 8th of September. The 5 ft swell, even with a short period, is the biggest we get, and the clean cross-off wind from the WNW will make it look better than it is. For an intermediate surfer, you might snag a couple of clean, dumpy walls. But honestly, with the combined energy at just 139, it’s not going to hold you.

The rest of the period is a write-off. For beginners, anything over 5 ft is too much, and the quality is so poor anyway, it’s not worth it. For experts, there’s nothing with enough power.

Given the poor surf quality and the consistent cross-onshore winds, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for the vast majority of the forecast.

Stay hopeful, but don’t hold your breath. Rusty out.

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