Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight up – it’s gonna be a tough stretch for us at Kimmeridge Bay over the next 16 days. The truth is, I can’t point to a single day where I’d say "drop everything and go." Nearly every session in the forecast is tagged as poor surf conditions, and the numbers back that up.

Right now, for this swell window, things kick off on Saturday the 12th, but it’s a write-off. We're looking at a weak 3ft swell from the WSW at a super short 4 seconds, with a scratchy 16 mph cross-on wind. The combined energy is a measly 16 – that's barely a ripple. It gets worse in the afternoon with winds up to 19 mph, making it lumpy and messy. The water temp is sitting at 67°, which is a massive 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual and feels more like a late summer swim than a surf session.

The whole first week is plagued by wind. Sunday the 13th is cross-shore and lumpy with similar tiny, weak swell. Monday the 14th drops to a pathetic 1.0ft on a long 10-second period, but it’s still cross-onshore and choppy. We finally see some cleaner conditions on Tuesday the 15th afternoon with a light cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is only 2ft and period is a weak 4 seconds (energy 17). Wednesday the 16th looks cleaner too, but again, tiny swell with low energy.

We get a spike in size on the afternoon of Sunday the 20th with a 7ft WSW swell, but hold your horses. The period is short at 6 seconds, the wind is a messy cross-on at 16 mph, and the energy jumps to 309 (moderate). This is not a paddle surfer’s dream. The combo of significant, messy swell and cross-onshore wind at a reef setup like Kimmeridge makes this look far more interesting for kite surfing than a classic surf session. It’s too big and blown out for a decent paddle.

There's a bit of hope way out. On the morning of Tuesday the 23rd, we get a glassy morning with wind from the NE at 3 mph, but the swell is microscopic at 0.3ft. Then on Friday the 25th morning, we see a 3ft swell from the ESE with a clean cross-offshore breeze from the ENE (energy 25). It’s not going to set the world on fire, but it might be the most rideable window in the whole forecast.

After that, the last few days of September fade into tiny, weak waves with periods all over the place. The long period stuff (15-16 seconds) on the 27th is just too small to do anything with. It’s a tough call, but we just don't have the goods this time around.

Stay patient, go for a skate, and wait for the next system.

Rusty.

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