Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Kimmeridge Bay are a tough watch. We’ve got a long, long stretch of poor surf conditions, with a mix of onshore winds and weak, messy swell. The only real light at the end of the tunnel doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 16th, and even then, it’s a big-wave session for the experts only.

Right now, through Sunday and Monday the 6th and 7th, it’s all cross-onshore winds with tiny, short-period swell. The combined energy is weak (12) on Sunday, and while Monday morning has a touch of cleaner wind, the swell is only 1 ft – it’s barely a ripple. The water temp is sitting at 68 °F, which is a whopping 6 °F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual for here.

We then slide into a long, frustrating gap. From Tuesday the 8th all the way through to the morning of Tuesday the 15th, the scores are absolutely flat. The winds are mostly cross-off or clean, but the swell is pathetic – heights bouncing between 0.7 ft and 5 ft, with period often under 8 seconds. The combined energy on the 15th drops to just 27 – that’s a lake, not a surf break. There’s a brief moment on the morning of Sunday the 13th with light offshore winds, a 2 ft swell, and a hint of “surfable waves,” but it’s so ordinary it’s barely worth a paddle.

Then, finally, on Wednesday, September 16th, we get a pulse. The morning brings a 8 ft swell from the southwest, with a 7-second period and a clean, cross-off wind from the NNW. The combined energy jumps to 553 – that’s moderate-to-strong energy. This is the standout of the whole run, but don’t kid yourself, this is for experts only. That size is too big for beginners, and the 7-second period means it’s going to be a bit walled-up and tricky on the reef. The afternoon is a touch smaller but still 8 ft, with a cross-shore wind and a combined energy of 730 – even more punch. Thursday the 17th drops back to 5 ft, and the wind goes light, but it’s a cross-shore breeze, so it won’t be as clean.

Honestly, for the first two weeks, there’s nothing to get excited about. If you’re a kite surfer, the fresh cross-onshore winds and 4 ft to 6 ft swell on the 10th, 12th, and 14th might look more interesting than a paddle session. But for the rest of us, wait for the 16th, bring your biggest board, and be ready for a clean, powerful, expert-only session.

Rusty.

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