Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let me level with you. Lookin’ over the next sixteen days for Kimmeridge Bay, and I gotta be straight—it’s a tough watch. This is a reef set-up that demands a decent swell from the south-west to really light up, and we just aren’t gettin’ it. The water temp is 67°, which is a whopping 6° warmer than normal for the time of year—very unusual, like the sea’s got a fever. But that’s about the only excitement.

We kick off on Tuesday the 15th with a tiny 3 ft swell from the WSW at a short, weak 4-second period. The cross-shore wind is howlin’ at 16-19 mph, and the combined energy is weak (29 to 38). It’s a total write-off. Through Wednesday the 16th, the swell drops even further to 2 ft, and though the wind eases to a clean cross-off, the energy is barely a whisper (54 to 91). Still no wave to speak of.

Thursday the 17th brings the most size we’ll see for a while—6 ft from the WSW—but it’s a complete mess. The period is short at 6 seconds, and the wind is a strong 25 mph cross-shore, whippin’ up a storm. The energy climbs to a moderate 246, but with poor surf conditions across the board, that’s more for kite-surfers than paddle-surfers. It’s lumpy, choppy, and ugly.

From Friday the 18th all the way through to Sunday the 27th, it’s a brutal stretch of tiny, weak swell. Heights hover between 0.3 ft and 3 ft, with periods that are either too short or frustratingly long for the size. On Monday the 21st we get a glassy morning, but the swell is only 0.3 ft with a 14-second period—a long-period ghost. The combined energy never breaks 100 for days on end. It’s flat, clean, but flat nonetheless. The wind is mostly cross or cross-off, but there’s nothing to ride.

The one standout—and I use that term loosely—is Saturday the 26th. The swell bumps up to 3 ft from the SW, and the period hits 17 seconds on the morning. The combined energy cranks up to a strong 478, which is a proper pulse of energy for this spot. This is a long-period groundswell, which is good for a reef like Kimmeridge Bay as it will wrap in with some shape. The problem? The wind is a moderate 16 mph cross-shore, draggin’ a cross-chop across the face. Still, if you’re desperate, this is the best of a bad bunch. Saturday afternoon sees the energy drop to 317, still moderate-to-strong, but the same wind issue persists.

After that, Sunday the 27th onward fades back to nothing—0.7 ft to 2 ft, with cross-onshore or light winds, and energy levels plummeting to double digits. Monday the 29th offers a clean morning with a 0.7 ft swell from the WSW at 9 seconds, but that’s barely a ripple.

Honestly, mate, this sixteen-day window is a blank run for any decent surf. It’s one of those periods where the forecast can only change for the better. Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, the board stays in the van.

Rusty

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