Kimmeridge Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Kimmeridge Bay over the next couple of weeks. Got to be honest – this is a pretty bleak outlook. This spot is usually consistent and fairly exposed to swell, but the ocean just isn’t delivering. The water temp is sitting at 64°F right now, which is a massive 5°F warmer than average for this time of year – that’s really unusual, almost feels like a warm bath for these parts.

The pattern is a whole lot of nothing with tiny, weak pulses. For the first three days – Wednesday the 8th through Friday the 10th of July – it’s basically flat. We’re talking ankle-high slop at best, with combined swell energy barely hitting single digits (1 to 5). The wind’s a mix of light cross and cross-on, nothing to save it. Just poor surf conditions all round.

Saturday the 11th of July morning offers a tiny flicker. We get a 3ft swell out of the east, with a short 5-second period. Combined energy climbs to 46, still weak, but the wind goes cross-off from the ENE at 25 km/h, keeping it clean. Still, that’s short-period junk, better for a boogie board than a real surfboard. The afternoon gets choppy again.

Then we hit a massive gap. From Saturday afternoon until Tuesday the 14th of July, it’s all zeros and weak 0.3ft leftovers. There’s a nice glassy calm on the morning of the 14th, but with a 0.3ft swell, you’re just floating.

Tuesday the 14th of July afternoon is the closest we get to a pulse. The swell jumps to 4ft from the east, with a short 5-second period and combined energy of 70. It’s still weak, but it’s something. The cross-on wind from the ESE at 15 km/h will make it a bit lumpy, so don’t expect beauty. This is the best option in a very lean period, but only because there’s nothing else.

Another gap follows from Wednesday the 15th through to the 21st. Most mornings are clean with cross-off winds, but the swell is practically non-existent. The best of that stretch is Sunday the 19th of July morning with a 1ft from the WSW and a clean 20 km/h cross-off, and Monday the 20th morning with a 2ft from the west. Still, these are ankle-snappers.

Tuesday the 21st of July morning finally gets a clean offshore from the north at 25 km/h, but the swell is only 0.7ft. It’s clean glass, but there’s no wave to ride.

The final days, 22nd and 23rd of July, show a bit more energy on the 22nd afternoon – 2ft from the WSW with combined energy of 14 – but the wind goes fresh and lumpy. By the 23rd it’s back to wind-chopped junk.

Honestly, for the whole 16-day run, there’s no day I’d call truly good. The cleanest windows are Saturday 11th morning and Tuesday 14th afternoon, but even then the quality is poor. The short periods mean those east swells will break a bit straight and fat at this spot. If you absolutely have to get wet, wait for a morning with that cross-off wind – at least it’ll be clean, even if it’s tiny.

But if you’re chasing real waves? This stretch is a total write-off. Rusty out.

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