Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Stinky Bay.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you: the next two weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle session at Stinky Bay. We’ve got a long, drawn-out run of poor conditions, with a big gap of nothing but messy, onshore junk. The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t come until the 16th of September, but even then, it’s a bit of a double-edged sword.

The water is sitting at 67°F with a 5°F anomaly, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year – weirdly tropical feeling for a reef break.

Let’s break it down. From now through the 15th, it’s a write-off. The wind is stuck in a cross-on or onshore pattern from the WNW and NW, and the swell is a messy, short-period affair. The energy is all over the place, with values mostly in the low-to-mid hundreds, like 447 on the 7th, but it’s coming with a stiff breeze that chops everything up. It’s just not worth putting a wetsuit on for.

Now, the 16th of September is where things get interesting. The morning shows a solid 7ft swell from the west, with a period of 7 seconds. The wind turns cross-off from the NNE at 12 mph, and the energy jumps to 475. The forecast says it’s clean, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a reef set-up like Stinky Bay, 7ft is pushing into expert-only territory. The afternoon pushes it to 8ft with a 694 energy reading and a glassy cross-shore from the NNW. Look, the conditions are clean, the wind is light, but this is a serious, heavy swell. If you’re not a top-tier charger on a reef, sit this one out. It’s not a beginner’s wave.

The 17th and 18th of September still have size, with 7ft to 8ft west swells, but the wind swings back to cross or cross-on, and the energy is huge (783 on the 17th morning!). The issue here is the same: too much juice for the spot, and the tide conditions are questionable. It’s a marginal call for anyone but the most experienced.

The 21st of September finally offers a window that might work for more surfers. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the WNW, period 8 seconds, with a clean cross-off wind from the SE at 6 mph. The energy is moderate at 280. This is the best on offer for the average punter. The winds are light, the waves are clean, and the size is manageable. It’s not a world-beater, but after two weeks of nothing, it’s a solid option. The afternoon drops off to 3ft, so make the most of the morning.

Bottom line: The standout is the 16th of September if you’re a hard charger, but be warned, it’s big. For the rest of us, the 21st of September morning is the only real window for a decent, clean surf. The rest of the outlook is a bust.

Rusty.

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