Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here.

First thing you gotta know – this is a slow patch for Stinky Bay. We’re looking at a long run of pretty ordinary conditions before anything worth getting excited about shows up. The 16-day window starts with a real dud: the first several days are just not on. From Tuesday the 8th right through to the weekend, it’s a mess of cross-shore and cross-onshore winds, lumpy chop, and poor surf. The swell is there but it’s all wind-affected and ugly. The wave energy is weak to moderate at best, with the combined energy reading around 343 on Tuesday morning, and it doesn’t get clean. There’s a bit of a pulse on the 8th afternoon with a 6 ft west-northwest swell and energy hitting 530, but it’s blown out by a strong cross-shore wind. No good for paddle surfing.

The first real glimmer comes on Tuesday the 15th afternoon. We get a glassy session with only 1 ft of swell from the west-northwest, period 11 seconds – that’s a long period groundswell, which means clean lines and good shape, but it’s small. The combined energy is only 76, so it’s weak. Still, for a patient surfer on a longboard, it’s the cleanest wave of the early period. The water temperature is about average for the time of year.

Then we’ve got a couple of days that look promising but still not outstanding. On Thursday the 17th afternoon, we get a 5 ft west-northwest swell with a 9-second period, combined energy of 402, and clean cross-offshore winds. That’s a proper size for intermediates, but it’s only a marginal forecast. The swell direction is west, which matches the optimum for Stinky Bay. The next day, Friday the 18th afternoon, is the standout. The swell drops to 3 ft from the west-northwest, but the period stretches to 10 seconds, and we get a clean cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy is 249 – moderate. The surf report says “expect good surf conditions” and the score is a 2. That’s the best on offer in the whole window. The wind is light and clean, so the waves will be well-shaped and fun. Crowds are likely at this spot.

After that, it fades again. The following week has a few clean moments but very small – 1 ft on the 20th with glassy conditions, and then a big storm system hits on Monday the 21st with a 34 mph cross-on shore and a 3 ft, 16-second period swell – that’s a very long period groundswell, but with near gale winds, it’s blown out and dangerous. The combined energy hits 569, but it’s not for surfing. The rest of the window is small and windy, with only a few clean cross-offshore slots but minimal swell.

So, the call: Friday the 18th afternoon is the one to aim for. A clean, fun-sized 3 ft west-northwest swell with nice 10-second period and light offshore winds. It’s the only true standout. Before that, the 15th afternoon is a tiny glassy option for the dedicated. The rest is a write-off for surf.

Stay patient, and don’t bother with the earlier days. The forecast is reliable for the near term, but the 18th is looking solid.

Rusty.

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