Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here, and I’m calling it like I see it. Stinky Bay is looking pretty rough for the next 16 days. There’s a real shortage of clean, rideable surf, and the wind is going to be a constant headache. Let’s dig in.

The pattern starts off with a real low point. From Wednesday the 2nd right through the first week, it’s a write-off. We’ve got onshore winds from the SW and W, often fresh to strong, and the swell is all over the place but mostly small and messy. The water temp is a notable 67°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only silver lining. The first few days show a combined wave energy from 53 (weak) up to 341 (moderate), but the wind ruins any chance of quality. The waves that do show up are short-period, mostly 6-8 seconds, meaning little power and a lot of chop.

The first real chance of something surfable comes on Saturday, September 5th. The morning brings a light 4ft W swell at 10 seconds and a cross-shore NNW breeze at just 3 mph. That’s the best wind we’ll see, but the swell is still marginal and the tide could be a factor. The energy is moderate at 230. The afternoon stays similar, 3ft at 11 seconds, with a light breeze. It’s a small, clean window, but not a standout.

The next week is a repeat of the first – mostly onshore, strong winds, and poor surf. Sunday the 6th has a clean cross-offshore wind, but the swell drops to just 2-2ft with weak energy (42-68). Not worth paddling out for. Then from Monday the 7th through to the end of the second week, the wind is mostly from the W and WNW, often fresh to near gale-force, with swell heights bouncing between 1ft and 7ft, but all with short periods and poor conditions. The energy does spike on Monday the 7th afternoon to 546 (moderate-strong) and Tuesday the 8th morning to 824 (strong), but with 18-22 mph onshore winds, it’s a messy, lumpy mess. For a reef break like Stinky Bay, which needs clean, offshore conditions, this is just not happening.

The best on offer across the whole period? Honestly, it’s the Saturday the 5th session. The 4ft W swell with a 10 second period and a light, cross-shore wind is the only window where the surf might be clean enough to enjoy. The combined energy at 230 is moderate, but it’s not going to be epic. The crowds are likely (often) so you might have company, but the quality is so marginal it’s a gamble.

There’s a major gap of total junk from the 7th to the 17th, with only a few brief moments of lighter wind but no real swell to back it up. The conditions are so consistently poor, with strong onshore winds and short-period, choppy waves, that this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing if you’re into that.

So, to sum it up: Stinky Bay is a tough call this whole period. The only real chance is that small Saturday the 5th session, but it’s a long shot. If you’re keen, you’ll have to be patient and pick the absolute best of a bad bunch. Stay tuned, though – forecasts can change, and it won’t stay this poor forever.

Rusty.

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