Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming down the pipe for Stinky Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a grim stretch. We’re looking at a solid two-week gap with no decent surf on offer. From today, right through to the end of the forecast window, every single report says "poor surf conditions," and the scores reflect that. The pattern is pretty consistent: small, weak swell, and almost always with a cross or onshore wind messing things up.

Let’s look at what little we have. On the morning of Wednesday the 12th, it’s pretty flat with a 1ft swell from the west, an 11-second period, and combined energy of just 41. The water temperature is sitting at 68°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that anomaly of 4° above average is notable. The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze, so the surface is clean, but the swell just isn’t there. That afternoon it’s a bit more wind, still 2ft, still weak.

Thursday the 13th sees a tiny bump to 2ft in the morning with an onshore wind, and the afternoon gets a little more energy, 145 combined energy, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th is just as bleak. Saturday morning has a fresh 30 km/h cross-offshore wind, but the swell is 2ft with a short 6-second period – weak and gutless.

Into the second week, there’s a bit more height but no quality. On Thursday the 20th, we finally see some bigger numbers: a 5ft to 5ft swell from the west-northwest with a 9-second period, and combined energy jumping to 295-322. That’s moderate energy, but it’s all cross-shore or cross-onshore, so the wave quality is poor.

The 21st of August offers a glimmer of hope. Friday morning has a solid 3ft swell from the west-northwest with a 9-second period, and the wind is offshore from the northeast at 25 km/h – that’s clean. The combined energy is 134. That’s the closest we get to a standout, but even then, it’s only a 3ft wave and the overall outlook is still “poor surf conditions.” The afternoon is cross-offshore.

After that, it’s back to small and weak for the rest of the month. The 27th has a 3ft swell with a 10-second period and 157 combined energy, but again, cross-onshore winds.

So, the bottom line: there’s no day in this 16-day window where Stinky Bay is going to fire. The swell is small, the winds are almost always on it, and the consistency is a thing of the past for now. If I had to pick the *least* offensive time, it’d be the morning of Friday the 21st of August – clean offshore wind, but it’s a long way off and only a 3ft wave. Not worth getting excited about.

Keep the wetsuit dry and wait for a better window, lads.

Rusty.

Read more