Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for Stinky Bay. I’ve been staring at the charts and, to be honest, it’s a bit of a grim stretch for a while. There’s plenty of water moving, but the wind's just got it all chopped up and messy. You're going to want to pick your moments.

The water’s sitting at 68°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't need the thickest rubber.

For the first ten days or so, from the 18th through the 27th, it’s a write-off for a decent surf. The swell is coming mostly from the west, which is the right direction for the reef, but the wind is just ruining it. On the 18th, there’s 4ft of swell but a fresh onshore breeze has it all lumpy and poor. We do get a little pulse of energy on the 20th, with the combined energy reaching 473, but it’s still cross-onshore and messy. The 22nd sees cleaner conditions with an offshore wind, but the swell has dropped to a dribbly 2ft. It’s a frustrating combo: when it’s got size, it’s blown out; when it’s clean, it’s flat.

There’s a stretch of tiny, clean surf from the 23rd through the 25th, but it’s just not worth paddling out for anything under 1ft. Then the 27th looks like it’s trying to pick up again, but that westerly swell arrives with a cross-onshore wind and it's just choppy at 7ft. That’s too messy for anyone to enjoy properly.

The wind gets properly nasty on the 28th, with a strong southerly breeze making a complete mess of the 4ft swell. It might be worth checking if there are any kites around that day, because for paddle surfing, it's not happening.

We finally see a bit of light at the end of the tunnel on the 31st. The swell is a modest 5ft but the wind drops right away. The morning is still a bit iffy, but by the afternoon, it’s clean with a light NNE breeze and 4ft of swell. It’s surfable, but it’s ordinary—nothing to write home about, but you might get a few fun ones if you’re keen.

The standout, and I mean the only real standout, comes on the 1st of September. Tuesday afternoon. After all that junk, we finally get a clean forecast. The swell jumps back up to 6ft from the west, with an easterly offshore wind. The combined energy is up at 465, which is a solid push. It’s going to be a bit of a shock to the system after a week of tiny dribble, but this is the one to circle. The conditions align, and for a reef break like Stinky Bay, a clean 6ft west swell with offshore wind is going to be worth the wait.

After that, the 2nd sees it ease back down to an average 3-4ft as the wind goes light again. It’s just a return to the ordinary.

So, to be honest, the next week and a half is a waiting game. The outlook improves a touch on the 31st, but the real call is for that Tuesday afternoon on the 1st of September. That’s your window. It’s promising, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it. The near-term is all about the wind being onshore and the surf being a mess. It won’t stay like this forever, and when that window opens, it should be worth it.

Rusty.

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