Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at Stinky Bay, and I gotta tell you straight up: you can pretty much forget about any sort of fun surf for the first couple of weeks here. The whole window is a struggle.

The water is almost 68°F at Stinky Bay, and sitting about 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year, which is a pretty notable difference.

We start off on Monday, the 24th of August, and it’s just flat. Like, barely a ripple. The swell is 0.7ft from the west with a short period, and while it’s clean and offshore, the energy is pathetic, measuring just 7. Honestly, it looks more like a lake than a surf break. That theme continues through Tuesday and Wednesday with waves barely reaching 1ft. The energy is weak, in the low-to-mid 30s, so you’re not paddling into anything.

Thursday the 28th picks up a little—a windswell of 2ft from the west, still short period, but the energy finally cracks 100 (117). It’s onshore, though, and messy. Friday afternoon sees an 8ft west swell, but the period is only 7 seconds and the wind is cross-onshore, chopping it up. That energy reading jumps to 603, but the quality is not there.

The weekend of the 30th and 31st has some size, but the wind is howling onshore and strong. Saturday sees 5ft and Sunday sees a big 10ft west swell with a 10-second period, and a massive energy spike to 1700. But with 45 km/h onshore wind, it’s unsurfable. You’d need to be an expert to even think about it, and even then, it’s ugly.

We get a slight reprieve on Thursday the 3rd of September, our first genuine window. Waves are around 3ft from the west-northwest, with an 8-second period, and the morning is glassy. The comment even says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions," but that glassy wind is a major positive for cleanliness. The energy is moderate at 112.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th see the wind crank up again, with the swell building to 5ft and the period stretching to 11 seconds. The energy hits strong territory, over 540, but it’s howling onshore again, just blowing it out.

The real standout—the only one worth marking your calendar for—is the long-range call on Monday the 7th of September, a week and a half away. That’s when a big, long-period groundswell shows up: a massive 10ft swell from the west with an incredible 18-second period. The energy reading is off the charts at 9684. But here’s the catch, and it’s a big one: that long-period groundswell will be breaking straight at a beach/reef setup, and the morning is onshore. Tuesday the 8th also has solid 8ft swell with a 14-second period, energy at 1947, but the wind is cross-shore and lumpy. The file straight up says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. So while the energy and size are insane, the conditions are likely to be a washing machine, strictly for the experts only, and even then, it’s a gamble.

So, to sum it up: there is no good surf in the first week. The best chance, and it’s a very specific and tricky one, is that window around the 7th and 8th of September if the wind plays ball and you’re a confident surfer looking at a very powerful, very big west swell. Otherwise, keep your board in the car and wait.

Rusty.

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