Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's have a look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a pretty grim stretch ahead for Stinky Bay. We’re looking at a run of poor surf conditions that’ll last for days, so if you’re itching to get wet, you’ll need patience.

The water is sitting at a much warmer than normal 68°, but that’s about the only positive. The energy in the water is weak for most of the opening week, with combined swell energy values scraping the bottom of the barrel at 343 and 214 on the Sunday – those are weak numbers. The wind is onshore from the southwest, and that, combined with a short-period 5ft to 4ft west swell, is just making for messy, poor surf. Monday isn’t any kinder, with a bigger 8ft west swell, but a fresh cross-onshore wind at 22 mph is going to make it lumpy and ugly. That size is getting into the too-big-for-beginners range, but the quality is so bad it’s really not for anyone.

We’ve got a long gap here, possibly until the 5th of September, before anything even gets close to being worth a look. For nearly a week, it’s either weak, onshore junk or tiny, cross-onshore chop. The energy values stay below 200 for days – really weak stuff.

Now, the first glimmer of hope arrives on Saturday the 5th of September, but it’s marginal at best. We get a 5ft west-northwest swell with a long 11-second period, giving us moderate energy (524). The wind is cross-shore from the north-northwest, which is better, but the forecast says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”. The long period is good for shape, but at a beach break like this, it can be a bit straight and tricky.

The best of a bad bunch might be Saturday afternoon, with a cleaner look as the wind eases. The 4ft swell, still with that long period, but the energy drops. It’s not a standout, it’s a maybe. Sunday morning the 6th might give you a small, clean 2ft wave with a light cross-offshore breeze (9 mph), but you’ll be scratching for anything rideable.

As we move into the second week, things get smaller again. The 7th of September has a tiny 2ft west swell on Monday morning with an onshore flow, no good. Tuesday the 8th shows a 4ft west-northwest swell with a long 11-second period and a clean cross-offshore wind – that’s the only other time it looks half decent, but the energy is only moderate at 299, and the size is small. The rest of that week is tiny, clean but tiny, with the 12th of September giving a clean 1ft swell – you’d need a very longboard.

So, the honest truth: there isn't a single standout session here. If I had to pick one, it’d be the morning of Saturday the 5th of September, because at least there’s some size and period, but you’ll be battling the tide and a cross-shore. For the week after that, look for the morning of Tuesday the 8th of September for a clean, small wave. Keep your expectations low, this is a tough forecast.

Rusty.

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