Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Look, I'm gonna be straight with you – this 16-day stretch out here at Stinky Bay is a tough one to call a "surf outlook." We're looking at a whole lot of nothing for the first four days, from Friday the 28th of August right through until Monday the 31st. The combined swell energy is low to moderate at best, and the wind is howling. We're talking 15-37 mph winds, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the surf is just poor. It's messy, choppy, and not worth paddling out for. The only thing worth noting is the water temp on Friday the 28th morning is 68°F, which is 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that's notably warm, but you won't be feeling it while you're getting blown off your board.

We get a little bit of a let-up on Tuesday the 1st of September. The morning shows a 4 ft swell from the W with a period of 9 seconds, but it's still cross-onshore and the combined energy is still only 217 – weak. The report says it's marginal, and honestly, it looks like a gamble. Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday the 2nd are back to poor with small, weak swell. The gap of poor or no surf stretches from the start all the way to Thursday the 3rd of September morning, where we finally see a bit of a spike – 6 ft from the W, period of 8 seconds, and a combined energy of 409 (moderate). But again, the wind is a fresh 19 mph onshore, making it lumpy and unrideable. This pattern repeats: a bit of size shows up, but the wind ruins it. It's frustrating.

Now, over the weekend of the 5th and 6th of September, things get interesting in a different way. We have a solid 5 ft swell on Friday the 4th afternoon from the W with a long 12-second period and a combined energy of 776 (strong), but it's a cross-onshore wind. Saturday the 5th morning has a 3 ft swell from the W, period of 8 seconds. But then on Saturday afternoon, we get a near-perfect 3 ft swell from the WNW with an 11-second period and a light cross-shore wind. The combined energy is 209 (weak), but it's clean. This is the best we'll see for a while. Then Sunday the 6th of September morning has a 2 ft swell from the W with a 9-second period and a cross-offshore wind from the N at 12 mph, and the report says "clean." The combined energy is only 59, but it's the cleanest conditions of the entire forecast. Still, the swell is tiny. For a stretch, this is your best bet for a clean, weak wave. The rest of the second week sees very small swell and strong, messy winds. From the 7th of September onward, we are looking at poor surf with tiny, weak energy right through to the 12th. The long-period 21-second swell on the 11th is a joke with 28 mph winds.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, there's no standout. If you had to pick a moment, it would be the cross-offshore conditions on Sunday morning the 6th of September. The water might be cleaning up, but the waves are tiny. If you're a beginner, the swell never gets over 5 ft in any period that looks rideable, so that's a positive for the tiny windows. But for the experienced surfer, the bigger waves on the 3rd and 4th of September are blown out. The whole setup – a solid wind and a beach-and-reef break – looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for most of this run. There just isn't much joy to be had.

Rusty.

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