Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s cookin’ at Stinky Bay over the next couple weeks. Gotta be straight with you though—this stretch is a heartbreaker for most of it.

The pattern overall is pretty meagre. We’re looking at a lot of small, weak swell and dodgy wind for days on end. There's a real tease at the very end, but you’ll have to earn it with patience.

Kicking off, Thursday the 10th is a write-off. Cloudy, choppy cross-onshore wind, and a tiny 2ft swell from the west with hardly any energy (81). Period’s a short 8 seconds. Not worth paddling out.

Friday the 11th shows a pulse. Morning swell bumps to 5ft from the west with a 10-second period. That combined energy hits 563, so there is some moderate push in the water. But it’s cross-onshore wind, which is chopping the surface. It’s marginal and a bit below par, but if you’re desperate, it’s the first sign of life. Not a standout.

Saturday the 12th drops back. 3ft, short period, poor conditions. Leave the board in the car.

Sunday the 13th has similar size (4ft) and a longer 11-second period, so the shape is a bit better, but the wind is cross-onshore again, making it lumpy and choppy. No thanks.

Monday the 14th – afternoon is the first little gem. The wind flips to glassy from the northwest, but the swell is small: 2ft west at 10 seconds. Only 88 energy points. It’s surfable, just very ordinary. If you’re a log, you might get a few knee-high dribblers with no bump.

Tuesday 15th and Wednesday 16th are dud days. Small, messy, and the wind picks up strong. Wednesday morning has a strong breeze chopping the ocean to pieces.

The next week continues the grind. Thursday 17th through Saturday 19th is a run of poor conditions with cross-onshore wind and small swell, though Saturday the 19th does have glassy wind both morning and afternoon, but again with tiny 2ft swell. That’s clean, but you’ll be floating.

Now – here’s the big one. Sunday the 20th. This is the only true standout, but it comes with a big caveat. The swell pumps up to 12ft from the west-northwest, with a combined energy of 1699 in the morning and 1895 in the afternoon – that is strong wave energy. The wind is glassy in the morning. This is a serious, powerful groundswell. But it’s too big for Stinky Bay. The guide is clear: the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is only for experts, and even then, the break will be maxed out. If you’re a very confident charger and know the reef blind, it might be on. But for most, it’s a spectator day.

Monday the 21st morning holds at 8ft from the northwest, with a clean cross-offshore wind. That’s still big – expert territory – and the period is short at 7 seconds, so it might be a little wobbly.

Tuesday the 22nd drops to 6ft, still solid, but the wind turns onshore and it’s lumpy. Marginal.

After that, Wednesday the 23rd through Friday the 25th fades into small, long-period leftovers, but the wind stays messy. The water temp is about average for this time of year, no anomalies to report.

So the final call? You have two windows: Friday the 11th morning for a semi-clean, modest 5ft west swell if you can handle cross-onshore chop. And then the big prize on Sunday the 20th is an 12ft clean swell, but it’s only for experts, and it’s right at the limit for Stinky Bay. The rest is a grind, my friend. Patience.

Rusty

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