Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Stinky Bay is the only spot on the radar here, and honestly, it’s a tough stretch. The next 16 days are looking pretty flat and uninspiring. There’s no real surf to get excited about at all – the whole window has got "poor surf conditions" written all over it. The combined swell energy is weak for the most part, staying under 100 (mostly in the 30s, 40s, and 50s) until the very end of the period. So, we’re looking at a long gap where there’s nothing worth paddling out for.

Right now, on Sunday the 5th, we’ve got a tiny 2ft swell from the west with a short period of 9 seconds, and a cross-onshore breeze making it choppy. Not good. Monday the 6th stays small, 2ft, with onshore wind in the morning and a cross-offshore in the afternoon – still poor. Tuesday the 7th has glassy conditions in the morning with only 2ft, but the energy is just too low (36). That glass is wasted on this tiny surf.

Through the rest of the first week and into the second, it’s the same story: waves never break 2ft until we get to Saturday the 18th. On the 18th we finally see a bump – 3ft to 4ft from the west, but with a very short period of just 5 seconds. That’s windswell, weak and crumbly. The combined energy on the 18th afternoon hits 80 – still low. And the wind is strong offshore (ENE 30 km/h), which sounds clean but that strong breeze will make it tough to paddle into these little waves.

Sunday the 19th offers the biggest swell of the whole forecast: 4ft from the west with a period of 7 seconds and combined energy hitting 130 (moderate), but the wind swings to a cross-onshore from the WNW, making it choppy. Then Monday the 20th sees 5ft to 5ft from the west, period still short at 7 seconds, energy climbing to 239, but it’s onshore or cross-onshore, so quality drops fast. The water temp at Stinky Bay is sitting at 65°F, which is about 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s notably warm.

The optimum swell direction here is west, and we do get west swell, but the size and period just never line up with decent wind. For a reef break that’s fairly consistent, it’s a real letdown. If you’re desperate, the glassy Tuesday 7th morning is the cleanest you’ll see, but with 2ft and 9-second period, it’s barely rideable. The big offshore winds later on (like the 12th to 14th) are strong and clean, but the swell is tiny – 0.3ft to 1ft – so it’s more of a kite surfing setup than anything you’d paddle into.

No standouts here. This is a blank run for Stinky Bay. Sometimes it just stays flat for a while in this area. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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