Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on Stinky Bay for the next couple of weeks. Let’s be straight with each other – this is a rough run. The forecast shows a long, quiet stretch with nothing much to get excited about for quite a while.

The water is running at 66°, which is a solid 4.5° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s pretty notable and feels like a summer bath compared to what you’d expect.

We’re looking at a gap of about 12 days with no real surf on offer. From Monday the 13th right through until Friday the 24th, the swell is tiny – mostly 0.3ft to 1.3ft – with a combined energy reading that barely cracks double digits (2 to 39). That’s weak, no two ways about it. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross-shore, so the water will be clean, but you can’t ride what isn’t there. Even the longer period swells (up to 12 seconds on the 14th) don’t matter when the height is barely a ripple.

The first real flicker of hope comes on Saturday the 25th of July. The morning shows a bump to 3.0ft from the WNW with a combined energy of 107 (moderate), and the wind is a light cross-off from the ESE. That’s clean. Still, the period is only 8 seconds, so it’s windswell – not gonna be the most powerful, but at least there’s something to push against. The afternoon drops back to 2.6ft with a bit less energy (82), so the morning is the pick of that day.

Then, on Monday the 27th of July, things get a bit more interesting, but it’s not for everyone. The swell jumps to 6.2ft to 6.6ft from the WSW/W, with a combined energy of 226 in the morning and 411 in the afternoon. That’s strong to very strong energy. But the period is short – only 6 to 7 seconds – so it’s a messy, choppy, wind-driven swell. The wind is cross-on or cross, so it won’t be clean. At 6.6ft, this is expert territory only. Honestly, with that short period and onshore wind, it’s looking way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The water will be lumpy and hard to handle.

The morning of Tuesday the 28th drops back to 3.0ft with light rain and cross-on wind – not worth the paddle.

So, if you’re desperate, the standout window is the morning of Saturday the 25th of July. It’s still small, but it’s the cleanest, most rideable wave in the whole 16-day window. The bigger swell on the 27th is there, but it’s a messy, short-period beast – only for the experienced and even then, the conditions are rough.

Stinky Bay is a reef break that’s fairly consistent, but it’s exposed to the west and the optimum swell direction here is W. The swell we get on the 25th is from the WNW, which is a bit off the mark, but it’s still the best we’ve got. Crowds are often around here, so expect company on that Saturday morning.

Stay hopeful – the forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a long wait for a small window.

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