Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's on the menu for Stinky Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it's a rough start. We're looking at a run of days with poor surf conditions, and the first solid recommendation doesn't show up until later on. The water's sitting at 68°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that's a solid 4° above average, so you can leave the thick rubber at home.

The first week is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. From Sunday the 16th right through to Monday the 25th, every single report flags "poor surf conditions." The swell is mostly weak, with a lot of wind chop and onshore winds messing things up. The combined swell energy is very low, often under 100, and it never really gets its act together. There's a little bump in energy around Thursday the 20th, with a 5ft swell from the W and a period of 9 seconds, pushing the energy to 390, but the onshore wind at 15-16 mph just kills it. It's just not worth paddling out.

We finally get a bit of a window. Tuesday the 25th sees some cleaner conditions thanks to a cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. The swell is a small 4ft from the NW, but the period is a weak 5 seconds, so it'll be a bit crumbly. The combined energy is only 59-67, so it's weak. It’s not a standout, but if you're desperate, it's the first time it’s not blown out.

The best of the entire run looks to be later on. On Thursday the 27th, we get a pulse of swell. Morning sees a 6ft swell from the W with a 7-second period, pushing the combined energy to 258. The problem is the cross-onshore wind at 19 mph from the WNW, making it lumpy. The afternoon cleans up a bit with lighter winds, but the swell drops slightly. The real size comes on Saturday the 30th. We're looking at a 6ft swell from the W with a 9-second period on the morning of the 30th, with a combined energy of 470. That's the most powerful swell of the period. However, that's paired with a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 22 mph, so it's going to be a messy, lumpy, powerful wall of water. For the experienced surfer at Stinky Bay, that's the one to circle on the calendar, but it's not going to be pretty.

In short, it's a long, bleak stretch of flat and blown-out conditions. The only real size shows up right at the end of the month, and even then the wind is a factor. The overall pattern is poor, so don't hold your breath.

- Rusty

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