Stinky Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming our way at Stinky Bay for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the forecast is a rough one. We’ve got a long, dry spell ahead. For the first twelve days, from Wednesday the 15th of July right through to Sunday the 27th of July, the surf is honestly pretty poor. The energy is weak, and we’re looking at tiny waves, mostly around 0.6ft to 1.0ft. The combined swell energy barely cracks double digits, often sitting between 5 and 21, which is just nothing to get excited about.

The winds are mostly offshore or cross-offshore, which would usually be a good sign, but with waves that small, it’s just not worth suiting up. The water temperature at Stinky Bay is reading 65°F, which is a full 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a notable anomaly, so it’ll feel like a warm bath, but it won’t save the surf.

The only glimmer of hope in this entire run comes on Saturday the 25th of July. The morning is looking glassy with no wind at all, a tiny pulse of 1ft swell from the west-northwest. The combined energy is a bit higher at 46, but still weak. The period is 11 seconds, which is a decent groundswell, but it’s tiny. Honestly, it’s still "poor surf conditions" on the charts. By the afternoon, a cross-shore wind chops it up.

Then, a real shift happens. On Monday the 27th of July, the energy finally starts to build. That morning sees 2ft from the west, with the combined energy jumping to 75. The wind is light and cross-offshore, and the report says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." It’s not great, but it’s the best we’ve seen in two weeks.

The standout, though, is looking like Wednesday the 29th of July. The morning is glassy again, with a 3ft swell from the west-northwest. The period is short at 5 seconds, so it’ll be a bit soft and crumbly, but the combined energy is up to 79, and with glassy conditions, it’ll be the cleanest wave of the whole period. It’s still more of a small-wave cruiser for intermediates, but if you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your window.

Looking further out, Thursday the 30th of July morning sees the combined energy jump to 156, with a 3ft swell from the west-northwest and a 10-second period. That’s a moderate energy pulse, and with light cross-shore winds, it’s another option, but still nothing to write home about.

So, to wrap it up: the best on offer is a tie between the glassy morning of Wednesday the 29th of July and the glassy morning of Saturday the 25th of July. The Saturday is smaller, the Wednesday has a bit more push. If you only get one session, make it the 29th, but keep your expectations low. The rest of the fortnight is a write-off. Stay patient, lads.

Rusty.

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