James Kealoha Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks look pretty flat and messy for us. The main issue is the wind – it’s almost always coming from the northeast, which is cross-onshore or cross-shore, which means it chops things up and makes the surf sloppy. There’s no real stand-out, pumping swell on the horizon, but there are a few moments where it might clean up just enough for a paddle.

A quick heads up: The first real stretch of surfable conditions is a long way off, almost two weeks from now. You’ve got about twelve days of mostly poor to marginal surf through the first week and a half. Then, around the morning of Friday 17th July it looks like we could get a brief window.

The only spot on the list is James Kealoha Beach Park (reef break). Water temp is sitting around 80°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing weird going on there.

Starting now and right through the first week, wind is the enemy. Sunday 5th July kicks off with a moderate cross-onshore, swell averaging around 4ft from the NE at a short period of 8 seconds. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (294), but with that chop, it’s just not worth it. This pattern holds all week – Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th July bring 12 mph winds, messy 5ft to 5ft NE swell, and poor conditions (combined energy 259–341). It’s just lumpy.

Wednesday 8th July morning sees a slight shift – wind from the ENE at 9 mph, becoming cross-shore. Swell is 5ft, period 7 seconds, and the combined energy bumps up to a moderate 430. Still, it’s only marginal at best. By the afternoon, the wind drops to 6 mph but swings back cross-onshore, and the swell drops to 4ft (249 combined energy). Not great.

Thursday 9th and Friday 10th July are more of the same – very light winds (6 mph) but the swell stays small and short-period (4ft–5ft from ENE/E, 7–8 seconds, combined energy 221–243). The wind is cross-shore, so it’s not completely blown out, but the wave quality is marginal. It’s the kind of day you might get a groveler out, but nothing special.

Saturday 11th July through to Monday 13th July looks worse again. The wind picks back up to 9 mph from the NE/ENE, cross-onshore, and the swell is 4ft–5ft from the ESE/E (combined energy 325–498). That sounds like more energy on Sunday 12th and Monday 13th July (up to 498 combined energy), but with that onshore wind, it’s going to be choppy and unpleasant.

Wednesday 15th July afternoon offers a slight glimmer – the swell bumps back to 5ft from ENE at 7 seconds, but the wind is light cross-shore (6 mph from E). Combined energy is only 222, so it’s weak. Still marginal. Thursday 16th July morning has 5ft E swell at 8 seconds (combined energy 405), but the wind is cross-onshore again.

The best chance in the whole forecast is Friday 17th July morning. This is the one to keep an eye on. The swell hits 6ft from the east, period 8 seconds, and for the first time in weeks, the wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the ESE at 6 mph, giving us clean conditions. Combined energy is a solid 490 (moderate to strong). This is the only slot where the surf actually looks good. The break here is a reef, and with that energy and light offshore flow, it should hold shape nicely. Crowds are sometimes, so you might have a few others out, but nothing crazy. The 6ft is fine for intermediate and above – beginners might find it a touch full, but it’s not huge.

After that, the weekend of Saturday 18th and Sunday 19th July goes back to the usual NE cross-onshore chop (9 mph), with 5ft to 6ft E swell (combined energy 352–411). Poor conditions again.

So, bottom line: if you have patience, target the morning of Friday 17th July. Everything else is a write-off for now.

Rusty.

Read more