JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it, folks.

We’re checking out JT Flemming, and the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a surf. This is a point break, good for beginners when it works, but it rarely breaks, and that’s the main issue here. The wind is hammering from the east-northeast at 18 to 22 mph for days on end, and it’s always cross-shore, so everything is lumpy and chopped up. The swell hangs around 5 ft to 7 ft for the first part, coming from the northeast and east-northeast with a short period around 7 to 8 seconds – that’s weak, messy windswell. The combined energy is moderate (404), but it’s just not clean. Water temp is 80°, which is about average for the time of year.

From Monday afternoon, July 6th, clear through to Wednesday, July 15th, it’s the same dreary pattern: poor surf, cross-shore breeze, lumpy. No standouts. The size (5 ft to 6 ft) might be okay for a beginner, but the chop will ruin it.

A shift happens around July 16th. The swell drops to 2 ft from the west, and the period extends to 15 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. But the wind is still cross at 18 mph, so it’ll be messy. The combined energy is weak (134). Not a goer.

Looking further out, like July 20th, there’s a 2 ft swell from the east-northeast with a very long 18-second period. It matches the optimum direction? No – this break wants swell from the north-northwest, and we’re getting east-northeast. That’s a miss. Combined energy is moderate (350), but the wrong angle means it won't wrap in.

Honestly, for the full 16 days, there’s not one session I’d bother with. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given that steady side-breeze and chopped-up water. No standouts. Since this spot rarely breaks, a quiet run like this is fairly normal. Forecasts can change, but for now, leave the wax at home.

Rusty.

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