JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s call it as it is. Honestly, the next 16 days are a tough stretch. We’ve got JT Flemming as the only spot on the cards, and it’s a point break that rarely breaks, so this is a real patience tester from the start.

We kick off on Wednesday, August 12th, but there’s nothing to get excited about. That swell is coming from ENE at 6 ft, but it’s short period at 6 seconds, so it’s weak and messy. With a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore wind whipping across, it’s lumpy cross-chop and just poor conditions. The combined swell energy is low, sitting at 196 – you’d be battling a washing machine for no reward.

That same story holds right through the first week: Thursday and Friday see the swell hanging around 5 ft to 7 ft, but it’s all the same story – short period junk from the ENE and cross-shore winds in the 30 to 35 km/h range. The water temperature is 27°, which is pretty much bang on average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

By Saturday the 15th, things get a bit more serious in terms of size – we’re looking at 8 ft swell with a period stretching to 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps into the strong range at 924 and 1006. Problem is, the wind is howling at 45 km/h and it’s still cross-shore, whipping up messy cross-chop. That size is expert-only territory at the best of times, but with those winds, it’s a complete write-off for surfing – honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday the 16th offers a brief glimmer: the wind swings to cross-offshore from the E, dropping to 30 km/h by the afternoon. The swell is still 7 ft in the morning and 6 ft in the afternoon, period around 8 seconds, so the waves start looking cleaner. But it’s still not a standout – the crowd can be an issue at times here, and the waves are inconsistent because the break rarely breaks. Still, if you’re an expert and you time it right, Sunday afternoon might give you a few clean ones.

After that, it’s a long, slow fade. From Monday the 17th through to the end of August, the swell drops steadily: 5 ft, then 4 ft, then down to 3 ft and even 0.7 ft by the 23rd. The period stays short, wind stays cross-shore, and the combined energy falls to weak levels – mostly two-digit numbers in the 60s and 80s, with a few weak three digits around 100. It’s basically flat and blown out for days on end.

There is a brief uptick on Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th, but it’s only 3 ft to 4 ft of short-period ENE windswell, and the wind never goes offshore. The last few days of the month wobble around 3 ft to 3 ft, but again, always cross-shore, always poor.

Let’s be real: there’s no standout here. The best of a bad bunch is Sunday the 16th, especially the afternoon, when the cross-offshore wind cleans things up on the 6 ft ENE swell. It’s not great, but if you need a paddle, that’s your window. After that, the forecast suggests a blank run that’s pretty normal for this area – when JT Flemming rarely breaks, you get long gaps like this.

Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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