JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the only spot in the mix for the next 16 days: JT Flemming. It’s a point that rarely breaks, and honestly, this forecast is a tough one.

The whole show starts on July 22nd with nothing but poor conditions. Cross-shore ENE winds at 16 mph, bumping up all week. Swell sits between 5 ft and 6 ft, but it’s short-period junk from the ENE and NE, mostly 6 to 8 seconds. Wave energy is moderate (178–413), but with those lumpy cross-shore winds, it’s just a messy, choppy mess. From July 22nd all the way through to the morning of July 30th, there isn’t a single proper session.

The only real chance shows up on the morning of Thursday, July 30th. For a few hours we get offshore winds from the SE at 9 mph, and the surf cleans right up to “gentle offshore and clean.” The swell drops to 4 ft from the NE with an 8-second period, and wave energy is weak (227). It’s called “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” That afternoon the wind turns light cross-off from the ESE at 6 mph, with the swell dropping further to 4 ft and period still at 8 seconds (energy 162). It’s not going to blow your mind, but it’s the cleanest it’ll get in this whole stretch. After that, it’s back to cross-shore winds and poor surf through to August 6th.

There is a big spike in energy on July 28th (1100), but it comes with a 16 mph cross-wind and marginal conditions. Then around August 4th and 5th, we see long-period groundswell (14–16 seconds) from the ENE, with wave energy hitting 1396 on the afternoon of the 5th. That’s a serious amount of energy for that long-period swell, but the cross-shore wind just ruins it. It’s a “marginal” call at best. For a rarely-breaking point like JT Flemming, that kind of long-period swell can be too straight, needing the perfect tide and wind—and we’re not getting the wind.

The water is 80°F on the 22nd, with an anomaly of 0.7°F above normal—pretty average for this time of year.

The standout, if you can even call it that, is the morning of Thursday, July 30th. Not big, not epic, but it’s the only time the wind plays nice. A rare, clean morning at a spot that rarely breaks. If you’re local, you know the window is tiny. Don't miss it.

Rusty.

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