JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee, 'cause it’s a bit of a wait for anything worth paddling out for. The next 16 days are a real mixed bag and honestly, the start is pretty grim. You're looking at a lot of small, weak, onshore wind slop with no real energy to get excited about. The first few days have some swell on the charts, but the wind direction is all wrong – it's cross or cross-off at best, and the wave quality scores are just zeroes. Nothing rideable with any real shape.

The first real window that even gets a sniff of decent potential is way out there. It’s not going to be a classic, but JT Flemming might offer something for the patient surfer.

Monday 7th September (Afternoon) to Thursday 10th September (Afternoon)
Honestly, write this off. Wave heights are around the 3 ft to 7 ft mark, but the winds are ugly – mostly cross-shore from the ENE or east. On the 7th, you had a 7 ft swell at 12 seconds, but the cross-off wind and thunderstorm risk just kill it. Then it drops. It's just a waste of time paddling out.

Friday 11th September (Afternoon)
A tiny little window. The swell is only 4 ft from the NE, period a short 8 seconds, but the wind is a gentle cross-off from the east. It’s clean, but it’s not going to give you much. The combined energy (208) is weak. It’s a maybe for a longboard session if you’re desperate.

Tuesday 22nd September (Morning/Afternoon)
This is the one time I’d pick JT Flemming. It’s a long way off, so don't get your hopes up too high, but the signs are there. On Tuesday morning the 22nd, the swell is a tiny 3 ft from the NNW with a 10-second period. The combined energy (157) is still weak. But the wind is a light cross-shore, almost glassy, from the NE at only 6 mph. That's clean. It’s a point break that rarely breaks, so this is an interesting one. The optimum swell for this spot is from the NNW, which is exactly what we have here. This is the standout of the whole 16-day run. It will be tiny and inconsistent, but if you’re a beginner, that 3 ft condition with light wind is perfect. If it gets a little bit more umph later, the Tuesday afternoon has a clean 3 ft, cross-off wind. It’s a session for a longboard or a foamie, not a high-performance shortboard. Water temp is 80 °F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so it’s warm and pleasant.

The rest of the second week (from the 13th to the 21st) is a write-off. Cross-shore winds and tiny, weak swell. A lot of poor surf conditions. It’s a long quiet patch.

So, if you’re keen, wait for that Tuesday the 22nd window at JT Flemming. It’s the only real whisper of a decent paddle in this entire forecast. Otherwise, you’re better off staying on the beach.

Rusty

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