JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gutted, absolutely gutted. I’ve scanned every corner of the 16-day window and there’s just nothing doing at JT Flemming. This is one of those rare stretches where the ocean just isn't cooperating, and for a spot that already only breaks rarely, that’s a tough pill to swallow.

The whole period is plagued by a persistent ENE wind, blowing cross-shore and messing up any chance of clean faces. We start off with a small, short-period swell, around 4ft to 6ft, but the energy is weak to moderate (203 to 322), and the fresh breeze is just chopping it all up. The wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions.

We roll into the first week with a bit more size, hitting 7ft on Tuesday the 1st, but the short period of 7 seconds means it’s just a lumpy, crumbly mess. The wind stays fresh, and the combined energy gets up to a moderate 418, but it doesn’t matter when the surface is that ragged. The cross-shore wind is relentless. By Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th, the wind kicks up to a strong breeze, with the swell hitting 7ft to 7ft, but the energy is still just moderate (352 to 489). Even though Saturday morning shows a cross-off wind and the word “clean,” that’s a mirage; the scores are still zero, and the quality is poor. Then it backs off again, dropping to under 3ft by Sunday the 6th, before the period cranks up on Monday the 7th.

Now here’s the one tease. On Monday the 7th, the swell period jumps to 12 seconds, and the energy goes from strong to very strong (680 to 935). It's a proper groundswell. But it’s still coming from the ENE, which is the wrong direction for this break. It’s also still cross-shore with a fresh breeze. The size is 5ft to 6ft, but the quality is still poor. That long period is just going to hit the beach and close out, or maybe line up a bit but with the chop on top, it’ll be a battle. Tuesday the 8th is the same story: 11-second period, strong energy (852 to 972), 6ft to 7ft, but still cross-shore and messy.

The only blink of hope comes on Wednesday the 9th. The wind finally drops to a light breeze. The morning has 8ft of NE swell with a 10-second period, and the energy is very strong (1278). But it’s cross-on and only gets a score of 2, a marginal call. The afternoon, though, that’s the standout. The wind turns light cross-off, the sea state is clean, and the 7ft of ENE swell at 9 seconds has a strong energy of 896. That's a solid, mighty wave. It’s forecast as “expect very good surf conditions.” But here’s the catch: this is a rare break, and it’s also a point break, so that 9-second period might be okay. It’s still an 8ft wave in the morning, which is expert territory, but the afternoon drop to 7ft is more manageable for the advanced crew.

Thursday the 10th is another clean day, with a light cross-off breeze and 6ft on the afternoon. The energy is moderate (530), and it’s a decent wave. But it’s not as strong or as clean as Wednesday afternoon.

And that’s it. That’s the highlight. After that, the swell dies off back into the pitiful 3ft and 5ft range with moderate to fresh winds and weak energy (74 to 257) right through to the 14th.

So, the best on offer is the afternoon of Wednesday the 9th, with Thursday the 10th as a backup. But even then, Wednesday’s 7ft is big and powerful for a beginner. If you’re an experienced surfer, that’s your window. For everyone else, this is a blank run. It happens here, but it doesn’t stay poor for long. Forecasts change. Keep watching the wind.

Rusty

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