JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming for JT Flemming.

Honestly, I’ve got to level with you – this stretch looks like a long, hard wait. For the next couple of weeks, there’s just nothing doing. The first surf recommendation doesn't show up until the end of the forecast period, and even then it’s a real scrappy option. We’re looking at a gap from now, Wednesday morning July 8th, all the way through to at least Thursday July 16th with nothing worth paddling out for. It’s a rough run.

JT Flemming is a point break, and it breaks rarely, so when it does work, it can be a special little wave. But for almost the entire 16-day window, the wind is pinned from the east and east-northeast, smashing it with a cross or cross-off breeze. The swell is mostly short-period, around 7 seconds or less, and the energy is weak to moderate – mainly in the 200s and low 300s for combined energy. The quality is just poor surf conditions across the board, with that fresh breeze putting a lumpy chop on everything. Swell heights sit between 4 ft and 6 ft, but with the crosswind, it’s messy.

The only real blip of something different is on Friday afternoon, July 17th. That afternoon shows the wind turning cross-off from the east, and you get a tiny spike of swell from the west-southwest at 14 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, but the height is only 2 ft – barely a ripple. The combined energy is 231 (moderate energy), but it’d be like trying to ride a mouse’s breath. Still, for a spot that rarely turns on, if you’re desperate and you’re an expert with a log, you might find one or two clean little peelers. But it’s not a standout by any stretch.

Otherwise, we see a bit of a pulse on July 18th with 6 ft ENE swell, but the period’s still short at 7 seconds and the crosswind is back. The very end of the run, around July 21st to 23rd, slumps into tiny, weak surf under 3 ft with energy dropping to 60–107. Fresh cross-shore breeze keeps it ugly.

There are no good surf options here in this 16-day window. For a break that’s rarely breaking, a blank run like this is normal. It doesn’t stay poor forever, but right now, it’s a flat, windy wasteland. Not one session worth your wax.

Rusty.

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