JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

Look, the next couple of weeks are going to be a real battle for anyone looking for a wave. The swell is here, no doubt, but the wind is going to be the enemy for most of it. We are looking at a serious stretch of onshores and cross-shore slop.

We’ve got a mix of mid-period energy for most of this window, which is a bit of a letdown. For the next week and a half, we are dealing with mostly short-period swell in the 5 to 8-second range. That’s just choppy, disorganized stuff, and with a fresh cross-shore blowing almost every day, it’s going to be pretty ugly out there. The wave comment doesn't lie; it says "poor surf conditions" for the vast majority of this run.

The notable shift happens a fair way out. On the 25th of September, things start to change. The wind swings around to the southeast and goes more offshore for the first time in what feels like forever. We even get a "moderate offshore and clean" call that afternoon. There’s still some decent size in the water, 1.7m, but the period is still on the short side at 6 seconds. It’s a start, though. It’s a sign that things might be cleaning up. There’s a bit of a tease on the morning of the 26th with clean conditions too, but that’s followed by a "marginal" call for the afternoon.

And then it kind of falls apart again for the 27th with more cross-shore junk. But hold on. By the 29th of September, we get another window. The wind is more cross-off, and the period stretches up to 8 seconds. The energy level is kicking up, with the combined energy in the 400-500 range.

Honestly, for the entire 16-day outlook, there are maybe one or two small windows on the 25th and 26th of September that look like they could produce a clean one. The size is solid, but the short period will keep it from being classic anywhere except maybe a point like JT Flemming. We’ve got some water temp around average for this time of year, so that’s the one thing you don't have to worry about.

Everything else is a lot of work for a bad wave. If you’re desperate and the sandbanks are holding, maybe you can find something on the 25th, but we’re not calling it a green light. When the wind goes strong offshore at 45 to 55 km/h with that 2.0m+ swell, JT Flemming looks like it’s going to be a complete washing machine, not a surf spot. That’s the kind of conditions where the wave and wind are just fighting each other.

So, the long and short of it is: sit tight, watch the forecast, and maybe get your hopes up for the 29th.

Rusty.

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