JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming down the pipe for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough period for JT Flemming. We’ve got a solid run of days ahead, but the conditions are just making a mess of it, and I can't give you a single standout session that’s gonna fire. The swell pops up to decent sizes at times, with moderate to strong energy, but that cross-shore wind is a persistent pain in the neck; it’s keeping things lumpy and messy.

The pattern right from Tuesday morning the 25th kicks off with tiny 0.2m swell (8) – barely a ripple – and 19 mph cross-shore winds. That’s a no-go. Wednesday the 26th shows a bit of life, with the swell building to 1.2m in the morning (82) and 1.6m in the afternoon (154), but that’s all on a short 5-6 second period and the same fresh cross-shore wind. It’s going to be bumpy and weak. Thursday the 27th is similar, with 1.2m (66) and 1.4m (115) – still the short period, still the messy cross-chop.

We roll into Friday the 28th with 1.3m (164) and 1.5m (195), but again, the wind is ruining any chance of a clean wave. This wind pattern just sticks around day after day. Saturday the 29th pushes up to 1.7m (211), and Monday the 31st hits 1.9m (362), but every single one of these is a “poor surf conditions” call from the data because of that relentless cross-shore breeze.

The biggest push of the run looks like it arrives around Tuesday the 1st of September, with 1.8m swell (418 in the morning, 428 in the afternoon). That’s some solid energy, and the period picks up to 8 seconds. For a point break that likes a bit of WNW-NW swell, the direction is off – it’s mostly ENE-NE. Still, it’s the cleanest entry in the log because the wind drops to a moderate 12 mph. It’s the closest we get to a recommendation, but it’s still cross-shore and described as moderate cross-chop. Keep an eye on Tuesday afternoon, but don’t expect perfection.

Later on, Wednesday the 2nd drops back to 1.3m (201), and by Saturday the 5th we’re back down to a tiny 0.2m (16) from the west with a 14-second period – a ghost of a groundswell, but no wind or swell size to back it up.

The last half of the run, from about the 5th of September onward, it’s more of the same: 1.4m to 1.7m swell, but the wind stays cross or cross-off and the energy rarely builds past moderate. The only real silver lining is on the 9th of September morning, when we get a brief “clean” wind reading from the ESE at 12 mph – but the swell is only 1.3m (150) and the direction is off.

Bottom line: this is a flat-out block of poor surf. The energy is there at times, but the wind, the short periods, and the wrong swell direction are keeping JT Flemming from turning on. If you’re desperate, Tuesday the 1st of September afternoon might be the best of a bad bunch, but temper your expectations. This spot rarely breaks as it is, so a blank run like this isn't surprising. Forecasts can always shift, but for now, I’d leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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