JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. Rusty here.

To be straight with you, the entire 16-day window looks like a write-off for any kind of proper paddle surfing. We’re looking at a solid two and a half weeks with nothing worth getting wet for. From now right through to Monday, 20 July, every session is flagged as poor surf conditions – and I’m not exaggerating when I say every single one.

The only game in town is JT Flemming. It’s a point break, beginner-friendly, but it rarely breaks, so you already know the odds are stacked against us. The swell’s coming mostly from the NE or ENE, fluctuating between 4 ft and 7 ft, but the period is short – usually 7 or 8 seconds, nothing that’ll really shape up. The wind is cross-shore the whole way, a constant ENE breeze ranging from 12 mph to 22 mph. That means lumpy, choppy conditions, no clean faces. The combined energy sits in that moderate range, mostly between 201 and 433, but it’s all messy, poor-quality chop with no real power behind it. There’s a brief moment on Wednesday, 15 July, where a long period swell of 16 seconds from the WNW shows up – but the height is all of 2 ft and the wind is still cross, killing any hope of a proper wave. That sort of period is best for a point or reef, but with no size or clean wind, it’s just a tease.

Bottom line: there is no standout session. No best on offer. It’s just two and a half weeks of cross-shore junk with small, short-period swell. If you’re desperate, maybe a foil or a longboard could find something, but honestly, for a paddle surfer, this is a long blank stretch. The area sees these runs of quietness from time to time – nothing unusual there – but it’s definitely not the time to plan a trip. For kite surfing, with that steady cross-shore wind and lumpy sea state, it might actually look more interesting.

Stay tuned, forecasts can shift, but right now, I’d call it a break.

Rusty

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