JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at JT Flemming over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be honest, this ain't looking pretty. This point break rarely breaks as it is, and this forecast is doing nothing to help.

For starters, the whole period is plagued by cross-shore winds and poor surf conditions. Right from Friday afternoon, 14th August, we’ve got a 7ft swell from the ENE, but with 22 mph crosswinds, it's just lumpy cross-chop. Not surfable.

Through the weekend and into next week, the pattern holds. Sizes bounce around from 4ft up to 10ft on the 15th and 16th, but those ENE crosswinds keep blowing hard at 28 mph and 16 mph. The wave energy is strong, hitting 1014 and 1219 on Saturday, but it’s all messy cross-shore chop. That longer 9-second period on Saturday afternoon hints at a bit of shape, but the wind kills it.

The whole week from the 17th to the 23rd is flat and poor. Swells drop under 3ft for many days, and when it does pick up, the wind is always cross or cross-off. There’s a very long period (17-second) groundswell showing up on the morning of the 27th August, with a combined energy of 644 – that’s serious power – but with 12 mph cross winds, it’s still read as poor. The only flicker of life is on the afternoon of the 27th, where conditions briefly clean up with a “clean” reading, a 5ft ENE swell at 8 seconds. But it’s only rated as marginal. For a break that’s rarely breaking, this is the closest we get, but it's still a gamble.

Standout window: Honestly, there isn’t one. The best you can hope for is the afternoon of the 27th (Thursday) if you’re desperate. The swell is 5ft from the ENE with a moderate breeze and clean conditions, but the period is short at 8 seconds. For a point break like this that needs a specific swell direction (optimum NNW), the ENE direction isn’t right. The water temp is 80°F, about average for this time of year.

The bottom line: There are roughly 14 days here with no good surf recommendations. The whole stretch from 14th August to 29th August is dominated by poor conditions, cross-shore winds, and lumpy seas. If you're paddling out, the 27th afternoon is your only real chance, but don’t count on much. This is a spot that rarely breaks, and this forecast matches that reputation dead-on. Forecasts can change, but right now, it's looking like a long, flat run.

Rusty.

Read more