JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me tell you straight up – this is a tough stretch for JT Flemming. I'm looking at the next 16 days, and honestly, it's a real struggle just to find a window worth paddling out for. This break is a point that rarely breaks, and when it does, the conditions are just not cooperating.

For the first week, from Thursday the 23rd of July all the way through to the 31st, the wind is just relentless. Every day is a cross or cross-on breeze, gusting 18 to 22 mph. It's blowing the surface into a lumpy, cross-chop mess. The swell is there, with heights around 5 ft to 6 ft, but the quality is shot. The combined energy is moderate (between 160 and 353), but it's all for nothing with that wind. There's a brief moment on the morning of Thursday the 30th of July where the wind switches to a gentle offshore from the SSE, but the swell drops to a tiny 3 ft with a short period of 8 seconds. The energy is weak (174) and the report says the waves are "surfable but very ordinary." It's a window, but it's a thin one, and you'd be fighting a lot of chop for a pretty average wave.

Then we hit a real dead zone. From Friday the 31st of July right through the first week of August, the forecast is just poor. Swell heights bottom out at 1.0 ft on the 1st of August, with a combined energy of a pathetic 11. It's a total blank. The wind stays a fresh cross-shore, and the "poor surf conditions" tag is stuck on every single session.

The only glimmer of real hope is way out there, on the 3rd of August. The morning session shows a long-period groundswell hitting 16 seconds, with a combined energy of 662 (strong). The swell is only 3 ft, but that period is a sign of real energy. But here's the catch – the wind is still a fresh 18 mph cross-shore, and the report still says "poor surf conditions." It's a tease. That long period would be beautiful on a point if the wind was clean. The 5th of August afternoon also shows a 5 ft swell with an 11-second period and 645 energy, but again, the wind is a moderate cross-shore.

So, looking at the whole 16-day picture, there's no standout. There's no day where you can confidently say, "This is the one." The best bet is that Thursday morning, the 30th of July, with the gentle offshore wind. It's not much, but it's the only time the wind is on your side. For the rest of it, with the strong, gusty winds and the beach-break-prone nature of the swell, this setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. We're in a quiet spell, and it's going to take a big shift in the weather pattern to get any real quality.

Rusty.

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