JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s on the table. There’s only one spot in the picture: JT Flemming. It’s a point break that’s a beginner-friendly wave, but straight up – it rarely breaks. And looking at this 16-day run, we’ve got a long, quiet stretch ahead.

The pattern is grim. From Thursday, 2 July right through to Wednesday, 15 July, the wind is locked in from the ENE at a solid 16-22 mph, and it’s cross-shore. That persistent cross-breeze is creating a lumpy cross-chop that’s just wrecking the surface. Swell heights bob around from 4 ft up to 7 ft, mostly from the NE or ENE, but the period is short – mostly 6 to 8 seconds. That’s weak, wind-driven junk. The combined wave energy stays moderate most of the time, but the comment on every single session is "poor surf conditions."

What’s really frustrating is the consistency of the bad news. Starting Thursday afternoon, 2 July, through to Monday, 13 July, every morning and afternoon period is a write-off. There is no standout window. The water temperature at the start is 79° with a tiny anomaly of +0.5°, so it’s about average for the time of year – not that you’d want to be out in that mess.

There is a small shift in the second week. On Tuesday, 14 July, the swell direction swings to the WNW with a very long period of 16 seconds. The swell height drops to 2 ft or 2 ft, but the energy is still there. That long period groundswell is beautiful in theory, but at JT Flemming it’s still alongside that ENE cross-wind. The surface will be lumpy, and a long-period swell on a point break can be tricky – it might just run too straight. Wednesday, 15 July, is similar with a 15-second period from the WNW and the same cross-breeze. Not worth paddling out for these tiny, choppy waves.

Then on Thursday, 16 July, we get a spike of 7 ft from the ENE, but the period drops to 6 seconds and the wind is still cross-shore. That’s just a messy wall of whitewater. Then, on Friday, 17 July, the swell bottoms out to 1.0 ft and 1 ft from the WNW with a 14-second period, but the energy is weak. This is a complete dud for surf.

Honestly, there’s not a single day I’d point you to JT Flemming for a decent wave. That cross-wind is relentless, the swell is either short-period wind chop or tiny and long-period but blown out. This break rarely breaks as it is, and this forecast keeps it locked in that state. If you’re a kite surfer, that cross-wind and steady push might get you moving, but for a paddle surfer? Forget it. Stay home, wax a board for another day. The forecasts can change, but right now this is a blank run.

Rusty.

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