JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty again. I’m looking at the same charts, but in feet and miles per hour for you. No sugar-coating it: the next two weeks are a total bust for any decent waves.

We’re talking about JT Flemming, a point break that’s good for beginners, but it rarely breaks. The whole 16-day window, from Saturday the 18th of July through to Sunday the 2nd of August, is a complete dud. Every single morning and afternoon reading shows poor surf, with a score of zero. The wind is a constant cross-shore, mostly from the ENE, blowing at 12 to 19 mph, keeping the ocean lumpy and chopped up. There’s zero clean, glassy conditions.

The swell is there, but it’s all wrong. The direction is from the ENE or NE, which is the opposite of what this spot needs (NNW). The swell height runs from 3 ft to 7 ft, and the period is short, mostly 5 to 8 seconds, which means weak, bumpy, messy surf. The combined energy is in the low to moderate range (70 to 508), but it’s all wasted with the wind ruining it. Even on the 30th of July, when a long-period swell of 11 seconds shows up with 5 ft, the wind is still cross-shore and the conditions are poor. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing special.

The only faint glimmer is on Sunday the 2nd of August morning, when the wind finally turns to a cross-offshore from the east at 16 mph, and the water looks clean. But the swell is still 5 ft from the NE with a short 7-second period, and the energy is moderate at 233. It’s still officially poor surf, so don’t get your hopes up. For a break that’s already inconsistent, a blank run like this is just normal for the area. The constant cross-shore winds make this look like a better spot for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Best to wait for a better forecast. I’ll be watching.

Rusty.

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