JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for JT Flemming and I gotta be straight with you—this stretch is a tough one. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first whole week is basically a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. The break is a point, rarely breaks, and when it does, the conditions have been ugly. We’re looking at a solid gap of poor surf from now until the end of August, with nothing worth wetting a suit for.

Kicking off on Saturday, 22 August, it’s a mess. Some clouds, then clear skies, but a fresh cross-shore wind from the ENE at 22 mph is ruining any chance. Swell is a weak 5 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, with a short period of 6 to 7 seconds—just lumpy, messy cross-chop. The combined energy is weak-moderate (214 to 240), but it’s all chop. Zero score. Sunday, 23 August, is more of the same: rain showers, lumpy 7 ft swell at 6 seconds, still cross-shore. The wind doesn’t let up, and the break is barely exposed to this direction anyway. It’s a write-off.

Monday, 24 August, the swell drops to bugger-all—1 ft from the NW, with a long 11-second period, but the energy is a pathetic 17. The morning is clean with a cross-off breeze, but there’s no wave to ride. Afternoon turns lumpy again. Tuesday, 25 August, is flat with 1.0 ft. Not worth talking about.

We get a tiny pulse on Wednesday, 26 August, with 4 ft to 5 ft from the ENE, but the period is a shocking 5 seconds. That’s pure wind chop, and the cross-shore wind is still moderate. Energy climbs to 102-141, but it’s poor. Thursday, 27 August, is similar—3 ft to 4 ft, short period, lumpy. Friday, 28 August, has a weird spike: 1 ft from the ENE with a 17-second period, giving 186 combined energy, but it’s tiny and the wind is fresh cross-shore. No go.

Saturday, 29 August, sees a bit more size—6 ft from the ENE at 6 seconds—but it’s still cross-shore and lumpy. Energy hits 200-237. Not surfable for a point break that’s inconsistent. Sunday, 30 August, swell shifts to the NE, 5 ft to 6 ft, period 7 seconds, energy up to 342, but the wind is still fresh cross-shore. It’s messy. Monday, 31 August, has rain showers and 5 ft to 6 ft from the NE, period 8 seconds, energy 291-382. Still cross-shore chop.

Now, on Tuesday, 1 September, we get a cross-on wind from the NNE at 12 mph, with 5 ft from the NE, period 9-10 seconds. Energy is 335-357, but it’s choppy onshore. Not good. But hold on—Wednesday, 2 September, finally throws us a bone. Morning is clear, with a light onshore from the NNW at 6 mph, 3 ft from the NE at 8 seconds. Energy is 138. Still poor. But the afternoon? That’s the standout. The wind drops to a slight air from the east at 3 mph, going cross-off, and the 4 ft from the NE at 8 seconds cleans up. The surf is surfable but very ordinary—this is the only moment in the whole 16 days with a score of 1 out of 10. It’s clean, but barely. The break is JT Flemming, a point, and it rarely breaks, so even this tiny window is a bit of a miracle. The crowd is sometimes there, but with this quality, you’ll have it to yourself.

From Thursday, 3 September, it’s back to the same old story: moderate to fresh cross-shore winds, 5 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, period 7-8 seconds, energy 251-422. Lumpy, poor surf. The last few days, 5 and 6 September, are just more of the same—fresh cross-shore, 6 ft, 8-second period, energy over 400, but it’s all chop. Not a single standout.

Overall, the best bet is Wednesday, 2 September afternoon. It’s clean, but the swell is tiny and the break is inconsistent. Don’t expect much. The rest of the window is a windy, lumpy mess. If you’re a kiter, this constant cross-shore might be your jam, but for paddle surfing, it’s a long wait for a very short window.

Rusty.

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