JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break this down. Honestly, this is a rough stretch. There are no good surf options in the 16-day window. The only break in the mix is JT Flemming, a point break that rarely breaks. It’s a beginner-friendly wave, but it’s almost always flat, and the conditions are locking it out for days on end.

We’re looking at a big dead zone starting now. From Sunday the 23rd of August all the way through to late on Tuesday the 1st of September, it’s a total write-off. That’s over a week of weak, short-period junk with a cross-shore wind blowing 18 to 22 mph, just chopping everything to pieces. The combined swell energy is mostly weak to moderate (numbers like 205, 255, 166). Even when a little groundswell shows on the 24th, it’s only 1 ft and the wind is still all wrong.

The first hint of something rideable comes up on Tuesday afternoon, September 1st. Even then it’s marginal: 6 ft of swell from the ENE, period around 8 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 433 (moderate). The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so the chop is slight, but it’s only a "marginal" call. Not a standout.

The one and only bright spot shows up on Sunday the 6th of September. We’ve got offshore winds out of the S to SSE that morning and afternoon. Swell is around 5 ft from the ENE, period 8 seconds, with moderate combined energy (254 to 298). The morning is just “surfable,” but the afternoon session gets a solid “expect good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer, but we’re over a week out, so don’t lock in your plans. The break is rarely breaking and inconsistent, so it might still be flat. The wind being a moderate offshore is huge—it’ll clean up that point. But the swell direction from the ENE isn’t what this spot wants (it favors a NNW direction), so the waves might not line up perfectly.

After that glimmer, Monday the 7th slams the door with fresh cross-shore wind and lumpy conditions again.

Water temp? Nothing weird—feels about normal for this time of year.

So, the short story: a long, flat run, one hopeful window on September 6th, but it’s a long shot. For this area, blank runs are normal, so don’t panic, but right now the forecast is what it is.

Rusty.

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