JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s cut to the chase here.

The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds that are going to mess up what little swell we have. For the first week, the surf at JT Flemming is pretty much a no-go. It’s small and chopped up, with winds coming out of the ENE at 9-19 mph and a lot of lumpy cross-chop. There’s just no quality to it. The period is short too, so it’s going to be weak and disorganized. There are a few days where the swell bumps up to around 5ft or so, but the wind is just too strong and cross-shore to make anything of it.

You’re looking at a solid 10 to 12 days of pretty poor conditions. We’ll see some moderate wave energy in there, but none of it is lining up with the wind. There’s nothing worth paddling out for, and honestly, the conditions are so crossed up that it might be more interesting for the kite crowd than us surfers.

Now, let's talk about the standout. It’s a long way out, but the forecast for the 25th and 26th of September looks like the real deal. This is where the magic could happen. On the 25th, late in the afternoon, the wind drops to a light 6 mph breeze out of the east, going cross-offshore. That’s clean. The swell is coming from the NNW, and while the height is only around 3ft, the period jumps to a very long 15 seconds. This is proper groundswell. The energy is strong too. It’s going to be glassy, clean, and have some real push to it. This is the kind of day that makes it all worth it.

The next day, Saturday the 26th, is also looking promising. The morning has the swell from the NNW at 5ft with a 14-second period. There’s a bit of cross-wind ripple, but the afternoon cleans up. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore, and the swell eases slightly to around 5ft with a 13-second period. Look for these to be the best sessions on offer. Because JT Flemming is a point break, it should handle this long-period groundswell really well, giving you those nice, long walls. It’s a rare break, so the line-up shouldn’t be too crowded, but you never know.

A word of caution though: with the primary swell coming from the NNW and the break’s optimum being NNW, this is a direct hit. But that 5ft swell on Saturday morning is approaching the size where beginners might find it a bit challenging. For the more experienced surfers, this is where it’s at.

Water temp is currently 80°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so you won’t need a full suit.

So, yeah, it’s a bit of a grind for the next ten days, but that light at the end of the tunnel looks like it could be something special. Mark the 25th and 26th in the calendar, but remember, it’s a long way out, so don’t book the time off work just yet.

Rusty.

Read more