JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a pretty grim run for JT Flemming. This spot hardly ever breaks, and looking at the forecast, it’s living up to that reputation. The water’s sitting at a normal 80°F for this time of year, but that’s about the only thing that’s average. The pattern is a whole lot of cross-shore wind and lumpy, messy conditions. We’re looking at a big gap of days with nothing really rideable.

For the first week, from Thursday the 3rd right through to around Wednesday the 9th, it’s a write-off. The wind is cranking from the ENE at 19-22 mph, puffing right across the face. The swell is mostly weak, with energy readings around 100-300 (moderate energy at best) and a short period under 8 seconds, meaning it’s mostly wind slop. The combined energy reading on Friday afternoon the 4th does spike to 1731, with a 7ft swell from the ENE and a longer 14 second period, but the wind is still a fresh cross-shore 22 mph, trashing any chance of a clean wave. That’s not surfable, that’s a washing machine. There’s really no standout here.

Moving into the second week, the story doesn’t change much. From Monday the 14th, the swell hangs around 5ft to 7ft, but the wind is almost always cross or cross-on. The only real glimmer of hope shows up on Monday afternoon the 14th. The wind switches to a light cross-off breeze from the east at 9 mph, and the swell is a solid 7ft from the ENE. The combined energy is 575 (moderate) and the conditions are finally clean. That’s the best of the bunch by a long shot, but with a 7ft swell, this is strictly for the experienced crew. Beginners should sit this one out. Plus, it’s a point break that rarely breaks, so you’ll be hoping for a bit of luck.

The Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th look like more of the same messy cross-shore conditions. The swell on the 18th does get a longer period of 12 seconds with 6ft, but the wind is back on it, making it ordinary.

So, to sum it up: there’s one chance on Monday the 14th afternoon that might deliver a clean wave for the experts, but it’s a long shot at a rarely-breaking point. The rest of the 16 days is a pretty blank run, which is normal for this spot. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty.

Read more