JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this straight from the start. I’ve had a good look at the charts for the coming weeks, and honestly, it’s a pretty grim stretch for JT Flemming. This break is a point, and it’s rated for beginners, but it rarely breaks, and that’s going to be the story here. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window with nothing worth paddling out for.

Right now, through the end of August and into the first days of September, the wind is hammering in from the ENE at 19 mph, sometimes stronger, with a constant cross-shore chop. Swell is tiny, around 4 ft to 6 ft, but it’s coming from ENE or NE with a period of just 5 to 7 seconds – that’s pure windswell, weak and messy. The combined energy is low to moderate, hitting between 77 and 352 (352), but it’s all poor quality. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

As we move into the first week of September, it’s more of the same: cross-shore winds, lumpy conditions, and the swell stays small and short-period. The energy ticks up a bit by the 3rd of September, getting into the 200s, but it’s still all windswell and cross-chop. There’s no let-up until the 6th of September, when the wind finally swings around, but by then it’s a near gale from the east at 31 mph, which is not surfable.

The 7th of September offers a glimmer – a long-period swell from the ENE at 11 seconds, with a small 4 ft height and the wind turning cross-offshore. The energy is moderate at 278, but it’s still rated as marginal. The 8th and 9th of September have offshore winds from the south, which is clean, but the swell is still small and weak, with periods around 6 to 8 seconds, and the energy is in the 200s. Conditions are clean, but the waves themselves are poor.

The only real standout, and I’m stretching here, is the 10th of September morning. We get a gentle offshore from the SSE at 9 mph, and a small 2 ft swell from the NW with a period of 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, but it’s tiny. The combined energy is 146, which is weak. It’s clean, but there’s hardly any wave. For a point break that rarely breaks, this is about as good as it gets in this stretch, but it’s not a day to get excited about.

Bottom line: there’s no good surf on offer in this 16-day window. The winds are mainly cross-shore and strong, the swell is weak and short-period, and the only clean days come with hardly any swell. If you’re a beginner, you’re better off waiting for a better run. For the experienced crew, it’s a pass. The setup here looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing if the wind holds.

Rusty.

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