JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this forecast period is a tough one for JT Flemming. We've got a 16-day window stretching out, but honestly, there's nothing in the forecast that screams 'paddle out now'. The whole run is a write-off for decent surf.

Looking at the pattern through July, from the 5th all the way to the 20th, we're staring at a solid block of no recommendations. That's a long dry spell, almost two weeks of flat or messy conditions. The 15th and 16th tease us with a long-period swell from the WNW (15-16 seconds), but the swell height is tiny, only 2ft, and the wind is messing it all up. The combined energy maxes out at a weak 345 (moderate energy) on the 15th, but it's just not enough to get excited about. Then, late in the run on the 19th, we see a minuscule 1ft swell with a very long period, but again, no power to back it up.

The core issue here is the wind. For nearly the entire period, we've got a stiff ENE breeze howling at 15-22 mph, blowing straight cross-shore. That keeps the surface lumpy and chopped out. Even the few moments with a long-period groundswell get ruined by that wind. The water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so at least you won't be cold while you're watching flat waves.

JT Flemming itself is a point break that's described as 'rarely breaks'. It needs a specific swell direction from the NNW to light up, and we're not getting that at all. This setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the constant cross-breeze and small, choppy swell.

To be honest, this is a blank run, and for this spot, a period with no surf is more the norm than the exception. Forecasts can change, but for now, save your energy. This is a pass.

Rusty.

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