JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for JT Flemming is a bit of a tough one. This point break rarely breaks, and for the first week and a half, it's a real struggle. The surf is just not happening. From Thursday afternoon, 20 August, right through to the morning of Monday, 31 August, everything is marked as "poor surf conditions." The swell is mostly small, short-period, and messy. The wind is a constant cross or cross-off breeze, often a fresh breeze, so the surface is lumpy with cross-chop. The combined wave energy gets moderate at times, like 252 on the morning of Sunday 23 August, but the quality just isn't there. The water temperature sits at a warm 80°F, which is about normal for this time of year.

The only real standout in this whole 16-day window is the afternoon of Sunday, 30 August, and the couple of days after. On Sunday afternoon, we see a 6 ft swell from the ENE with a period of 13 seconds, and the combined energy jumps right up to 1229. That's a solid push of energy with a long period, which will create some good shape at the point. The wind is a moderate breeze from the ENE, which is cross-shore but not too strong. Then Monday, 31 August, looks even better with a 7 ft to 8 ft ENE swell, a period of 12 seconds, and energy readings of 1361 and 1438. The wind is still a moderate breeze, cross-shore. This is the best window we've got, but it's still risky – the forecast is "marginal" with a score of 2 out of 10. The swell is getting up there, so it's going to be a bit too big for beginners, and the long period might make it a bit walled-off at the beach, but it's a point break, so it should handle it. The crowds are sometimes a factor here, so keep that in mind.

After that, from Tuesday, 1 September, the swell stays around 6 ft to 7 ft, but the period drops back to 8-10 seconds, and the energy drops to 534-872. The wind is still cross-shore, and the quality drops back to "poor." The rest of the first week of September is similar – moderate swell, short period, lumpy conditions.

So, if you're keen, the best bet is to aim for the afternoon of Sunday, 30 August, through to Monday, 31 August. It's a long way out, so the forecast might change, but right now that's the only window with any real promise. For the rest of the time, it's a blank run. Just how it goes sometimes.

Rusty.

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