JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. JT Flemming is a point break that barely ever breaks, so we're already up against it, and for most of this 16-day window the conditions just aren't coming together. We've got a long, dry spell until a brief window of interest shows up.

Starting right now, the first week is a write-off really. Wednesday the 2nd through to Monday the 7th, the wind is a solid cross to cross-off breeze from the east at 15 to 22 mph, ripping across the swell. Swell sits around 5 ft to 7 ft from the ENE, but the period is short, 7 to 8 seconds, and there's not enough power behind it – the combined energy reads between 232 and 441 (moderate wave energy). It's just lumpy, cross-chop junk. The water temperature here is 80° and that's bang on average for this time of year.

Then things shift. Monday the 7th afternoon, the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross breeze, and the energy edges up, but it's still only a marginal call. The real standout though – and I mean the only true standout in this whole 16-day run – is Tuesday morning, September 8th.

Tuesday morning the 8th is the day to watch. The swell swings around to a groundswell from the WSW at a very long 15 seconds, bumps up to 7 ft, and the combined energy hits 2424 (strong to very strong wave energy). The wind goes light and offshore from the ESE at only 6 mph. That's clean conditions, proper wave shape, and solid size. But listen – this is a spot that rarely breaks, so this is a rare opportunity. The 7 ft height and long period mean it's in the expert zone – not for beginners. And because it's a point break with that long 15-second groundswell, it should peel nicely.

Tuesday afternoon the 8th still has decent 6 ft WSW swell at 13 seconds and a clean cross-off wind from the east at 12 mph, combined energy 1435 (strong wave energy), but that morning is the pick.

After that morning, it fades fast. From the 9th right through to the 17th, we're back to small, short-period ENE swell, mostly under 5 ft and rarely over 8 seconds, with wind ramping back up into the cross and cross-on directions at 9 to 19 mph. Energy values drop below 300 most days, some days even down to 74 (weak wave energy). Water temperature is about average for the time of year. A few sessions on the 15th afternoon show a clean cross-off and 5 ft, but the period is only 7 seconds and total energy is only 273 (weak) – it's marginal at best.

So in short: the first week's a miss, the real call is Tuesday morning September 8th, with that rare, clean, 7 ft WSW groundswell kicking in. If you're an experienced surfer and JT Flemming ever decides to break, that's your window. Most of the rest is a frustrating wait. Forecasts can change though, so keep an eye out.

Rusty.

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