JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a honest look at the charts for JT Flemming over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough run ahead.

Right off the bat, from Tuesday July 21st all the way through to Wednesday July 29th, it's pretty much a write-off. We’ve got a constant cross-shore wind, mostly blowing from the ENE at 18 to 19 mph, and that’s just murdering any chance of clean waves. The swell is hanging around 4 ft to 6 ft from the NE and ENE, but with short periods of just 6 to 8 seconds, it’s weak, jumbled and messy. The combined energy sits between 109 and 760, which is moderate, but with that wind, the surface looks like a washing machine. This is not surfable for a paddle board; honestly, if it weren’t for the lack of real power, a kite might have a better time here.

For the first break we look at – JT Flemming itself – the water temperature is sitting at 80°F with an anomaly of just 0.7°, so pretty average and warm for this time of year. No surprises there.

We finally see a tiny window of hope on Thursday July 30th. The afternoon shows a shift: the wind drops to a light 6 mph from the east, turning cross-offshore. The forecast says "clean" and "expect good surf conditions." The swell is only 4 ft from the NE with a 9-second period and combined energy of 324 (moderate). It’s small but clean – this is easily the best moment in the whole 16 days. If you can only paddle out once, make it that afternoon.

After that, it’s back to poor conditions. From Friday July 31st through Sunday August 2nd, the ENE wind picks up again to 18-22 mph, the surf gets lumpy, and the combined energy climbs but the quality stays terrible. There’s a brief flicker around Monday August 3rd and Tuesday August 4th with longer periods creeping up to 12 seconds (groundswell) and combined energy jumping to 917 on the Tuesday afternoon – that’s strong energy – but the commentary still flags "marginal" conditions due to the cross-shore wind and chop. It’s frustrating, but that’s the story here.

So, the standout for the whole outlook is Thursday July 30th afternoon. It’s the only time the stars align for a clean wave. The rest of the window? A big ole gap of poor quality. It’s not a normal blank run for the area – this is just a stubborn weather pattern that won’t let up.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon.

Rusty.

Read more