JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what JT Flemming is doing for us over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest with ya, it’s a tough stretch.

The overall pattern is pretty grim: a persistent cross-shore wind from the ENE just won’t let up. From Sunday the 12th right through to Monday the 27th the story is the same—lumpy, cross-chop conditions and surf that’s labelled as poor. There’s no standout session in the whole run.

Let’s walk through it. Starting on Sunday the 12th, we’ve got a 6 ft to 6 ft swell from the ENE and NE, but that ENE wind is hammering in at 19 mph, making it a cross-shore mess. The combined swell energy is moderate at best, but the quality is just not there. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are much the same: 5 ft to 6 ft ENE swell, moderate breeze still cross-shore, and occasional rain showers on Tuesday. The energy dips a little but still moderate.

Midweek, Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, the swell drops right off to only 2 ft. That groundswell has a long period of 14 to 15 seconds, which at a point break like this can sometimes produce a clean wave if the wind plays ball. But the wind isn’t playing ball—it’s still cross-shore at 9 to 19 mph. The energy is weak, and the conditions are still poor. Don’t get your hopes up.

Friday the 17th comes with a short-period 5 ft NE windswell (period 6 seconds) and the wind stiffens again to 19 mph. It’s lumpy. Saturday the 18th is even smaller with 4 ft to 4 ft swell and only weak energy. Sunday the 19th bumps back up a bit to 5 ft ENE swell, moderate energy, but that wind is still cross-shore. No real change.

From Monday the 20th onward, it’s a mixed bag of small, short-period swells between 4 ft and 5 ft, weak to moderate energy, and that constant cross-shore ENE wind. The late part of the run—Thursday the 23rd, Friday the 24th, Saturday the 25th—is dominated by fresh 19 mph winds, producing a lumpy cross-chop. On Sunday the 26th, a 5 ft ENE swell with moderate energy appears but the 19 mph wind wrecks it again.

I gotta tell you, across the entire 16-day window, there isn’t a single recommendation I can point you to. The swell direction from the ENE and NE doesn’t match the break’s optimum of NNW, and the cross-shore wind never shifts offshore or goes light. For a spot that already rarely breaks, this is a blank run. It’s the kind of stretch where the wind is better suited to kiteboarding than a paddle session.

Water temp here is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual. But that’s small comfort when there’s no wave to ride.

Best we can do is wait for a change in the wind pattern. This run’s a dud.

Rusty.

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