JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for JT Flemming.

Honestly, mate, it’s a tough outlook. This is a point break that’s a beginner-friendly spot, but it’s one of those that rarely breaks, and over this 16-day stretch, it’s pretty much not playing the game. The whole period is a long gap of disappointment, with nothing decent until late in the month. You’d be waiting until at least Monday, 28 September, for the very first hint of something, and even then it’s a marginal call.

From now through most of the period, it’s cross-shore wind city, mostly coming out of the ENE at 12 to 22 mph, and the ocean is just choppy and lumpy. Most days the combined wave energy is in the moderate range, like on the 14th with 191 (moderate wave energy), and by the 17th it climbs up to 501 (strong wave energy), but the wind and direction are all wrong for clean surf. The swell direction is from the ENE to NE, but this break is looking for a NNW direction to really work, so nothing lines up.

The one small glimmer comes very late. On Monday, 28 September, in the afternoon, the wind finally eases and turns a bit cross-offshore with a light breeze, and the swell is 6ft from the NE with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to 477 (moderate wave energy). It’s a marginal surf forecast at best, but it’s the cleanest we see in the whole window. Then, on Tuesday, 29 September, the morning is light cross-on with 6ft NE swell, and the afternoon is the real standout: light wind from the east, cross-offshore, with a 6ft NE swell and clean conditions. The combined energy hits 493 (moderate wave energy), and it’s actually described as having “good surf conditions.” That Tuesday afternoon is the best of the bunch by a long shot.

But look, this spot rarely breaks, and when it does, it can get a crowd, so don’t expect to have it to yourself if a pulse of swell shows up. The water temperature is 81°F with an anomaly of just 0.2°F – bang on average for this time of year.

If you’re a beginner, be careful: that 6ft swell is getting up there, over the 5ft mark where it starts being a bit much for less experienced surfers. It’s a long wait, and nothing really stands out as a must-paddle session. The only real chance is that Tuesday afternoon, 29 September, and even then, it’s more of a hopeful last-minute check than a solid bet.

Rusty.

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