JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a long stretch ahead at JT Flemming, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s gonna be a tough watch for a while.

The first week and a half is pretty much a write-off. From now through to the 10th of September, we’ve got a constant cross-shore wind and lumpy, choppy conditions. The swell hangs around, but it’s poorly shaped with short, weak period windswell. Water temps are sitting at about 80°F – pretty average for this time of year, so at least it’s warm. But honestly, for paddle surfing, it’s not going to be pretty. With the consistent cross-breeze and that bumpy surface, this setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The combined energy during this period is weak to moderate (118 to 1105), but without clean wind, it doesn’t matter.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, though. The real standout here comes on Friday, the 11th of September. That morning we finally see a shift – the wind drops, going light cross-offshore from the east at about 6 mph, and by the afternoon it swings fully offshore from the south at 9 mph. The swell is coming from the east-northeast at 6 ft to 6 ft with an 8-second period, and combined energy sits at a moderate 448. The conditions are described as clean. For a spot that rarely breaks and is usually messy, this is a true window of opportunity. It’s going to be clean, and with it being a rare event, you’ll want to make the most of it. Just be mindful that the crowd factor is listed as “sometimes” here, so you might have some company.

After that, the surf fades quickly. By Saturday the 12th, the swell drops off to tiny 3 ft, and the energy is weak (64). Sunday the 13th is even smaller, with barely any push. So that Friday the 11th is your one real chance. It’s a long wait, but we take what we get.

Stay tuned, and stay salty.
Rusty.

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