JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s on the table for the region. The only break we’ve got to work with is JT Flemming, a point break that’s rarely breaking. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, but don’t hold your breath—it’s not the kind of place you can just rock up to and expect waves. The water’s sitting at 80°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first week is a write-off, frankly. From Monday 27 July right through to the end of the month, there’s no surf worth paddling for. Winds are mostly cross or cross-on, with a moderate to fresh breeze kicking up a choppy mess. The swell energy is all over the shop—on Monday morning we’ve got 215 (moderate energy) but it’s a short-period 7-second NE windswell, and the conditions are just poor. That afternoon it drops to 95 (weak energy) and a 5-second period. It’s grim. Tuesday 28 July sees a spike in energy—1297 (strong/very strong) on Tuesday afternoon—but it’s a 7ft ENE swell with a 12-second period, and the wind is cross-on. It’s messy, and the forecast says poor surf conditions. Not worth it.

Then, out of nowhere, on Wednesday 29 July morning, we get a little window. The wind swings offshore from the SSE at 6 mph, it’s glassy, and the swell is 5ft from the NE with a 9-second period. The combined energy is 314 (moderate). The guidance says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the standout for the whole 16-day window. But here’s the catch—JT Flemming rarely breaks, and it’s inconsistent. So don’t bank on it. Crowds are possible, so if you’re keen, get there early. The swell direction is NE, which is a fair match for the optimum NNW, but it’s close enough to work. Period is 9 seconds, so it’s a mid-range groundswell, not too short, not too long. It’ll be clean, and for a beginner spot, that’s a rare treat.

After that morning, it’s back to the rough stuff. Wednesday afternoon the wind goes cross-off, but the swell drops to 4ft and the period shortens to 8 seconds. Not worth it. From Thursday 30 July right through to the end of the 16-day run on Tuesday 11 August, it’s all poor surf conditions. Winds are fresh to strong breezes, mostly cross or cross-off, with a lumpy cross-chop. Swell energy ranges from moderate to strong (135 to 487), but the wind just ruins it. There’s a moment on 4 August morning where the period jumps to 12 seconds with 570 energy—but it’s 5ft from the ENE with a cross wind. It’s a tease. The swell is over 7ft on several days (like 7ft on 28 July afternoon, 6ft on 1 August morning, 7ft on 11 August morning), but with the wind and chop, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

So, bottom line: there’s one real shot, and it’s Wednesday 29 July morning. If you can get on it, do it. The rest of the 16 days is a long, dry gap. But it’s JT Flemming—it tends not to stay poor forever, and forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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