JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's shaping up.

Honestly, mate, we’re in for a bit of a rough stretch. JT Flemming is a point break that rarely breaks, and looking out over the next couple of weeks, it’s a pretty blank run for most of it. The first week is basically a write-off. From Monday the 31st of August right through until Saturday the 5th of September, the wind is howling from the east-northeast, mostly cross-shore and strong, just trashing any chance of a decent wave. The swell is around 5 ft to 7 ft but with short periods of 7-8 seconds and combined energy that’s weak to moderate. The conditions are calling it "poor surf conditions," and I've got to agree.

Now, Saturday the 5th of September is where it gets interesting, but also a bit of a tease. The swell jumps up to a solid 7 ft from the ENE, but the period stretches out to a very long 13 seconds. Combined energy surges to 1401 (strong), so there’s plenty of juice. The wind is still cross-shore at 16 mph, so it’s not perfect, but it’s the first bit of real promise. It’s a long-period groundswell, which at a point break like JT Flemming might actually set up nicely, but with the cross-shore, it's being called "marginal" at best.

The real standout, and the closest we get to a good day, is Tuesday the 8th of September. The swell drops a touch to 7 ft from the ENE, but the wind finally plays ball. In the afternoon, we get a clean 12 mph offshore breeze from the south. That’s the ticket. The period is a solid 10 seconds, and combined energy is 739 (moderate). The forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." At a point with rare consistency, to get a window of offshore wind and a clean 6-7 ft swell makes this the one to circle. It’s not huge, but for JT Flemming, that could be a proper session.

After that, we slide back into mediocrity. The swell hangs around 5 ft to 6 ft with short periods and cross-winds for most of the second week. There's another glimmer on the 13th of September with a clear morning, light cross-off wind, and a glassy afternoon at 5 ft. The combined energy is low to moderate, but clean waves are clean waves. Still, it’s a far cry from the Tuesday before.

The water temp is 80° with a zero anomaly, so about average for the time of year. Nothing to complain about there.

For most of this outlook, the wind is just too messy for a paddle-friendly wave. If the onshore or cross-shore keeps up with that moderate energy, it might be worth a look for the kite crew, but for a surfboard? You’re waiting for that Tuesday the 8th of September.

Rusty.

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