JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for JT Flemming.

Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle session. This spot is a point break that’s a beginner's dream when it's on, but it's a fickle one that rarely breaks. For the first week, the wind is a persistent cross-shore, blowing at 18 to 22 mph, just chopping everything up. The swell's coming in from the ENE, but with a short, weak period of 7 to 8 seconds, it's just not holding together. The water temp is sitting at 80°, right on the money for this time of year.

We've got a long stretch of nothing but poor conditions until we hit Saturday the 5th of September. That afternoon, things start to look a little less hopeless. The wind drops to a moderate 12 mph cross-shore, but the real story is the swell. We get a jump in period to a very long 13 seconds from the ENE, with a solid 6 ft swell. The combined energy of all swells directed here is strong at 1207. It's pulling in some serious energy, but it's still a cross-shore wind, so it's going to be a bumpy, tricky ride. The tide could also be a bit of a factor, so it's marginal at best.

This carries on into Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th of September. The swell stays solid, around 6 ft, with that very long period (12-13 seconds) and strong energy (907-1009). The wind finally eases up on Monday afternoon to a light 6 mph cross-shore, which is the best we're going to see. That 6 ft ENE groundswell with a 12-second period (836 energy) will have some shape, but the cross-shore wind will still put a bit of bump on the face. Crowds are possible here, so you might have some company.

Tuesday the 8th sees the swell start to fade, dropping to 5 ft in the morning with an 11-second period. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it's not terrible, but that 4 ft WSW swell in the afternoon is a different direction and the energy drops off.

After that, it's pretty much back to square one. From Wednesday the 9th onwards, the swell drops off, the period gets short and weak, and we're back to that fresh cross-shore wind. The energy levels are in the weak to moderate range (62-475), and the conditions are just poor for a whole week.

So, the only real standouts in this forecast are the back half of the first weekend and the start of the following week. If you're desperate, Monday the 7th of September afternoon with the lightest wind and that solid 6 ft groundswell is your best shot. It's a long-period swell, which is great for a point break like JT Flemming, but that cross-shore wind is the fly in the ointment. The rest of the time, it's a hard pass. For a spot that rarely breaks, we're in a bit of a dry spell.

Rusty.

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