JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at a pretty bleak stretch ahead. For the first week and a half, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The surf is just poor, day after day. From Monday the 20th of July right through to the end of the month, the conditions are a write-off. We’ve got a moderate to fresh cross-shore breeze blowing from the ENE at 9 to 25 mph, and the swell is a messy, short-period affair with periods mostly between 5 and 8 seconds. The wave energy is weak to moderate, with the combined energy reading between 83 and 452. It’s basically a lot of lumpy, cross-chop with no shape or power. Don’t even think about it.

The first real glimmer of something comes on Wednesday the 29th of July. Even then, it’s only marginal. The swell pushes up to 6ft to 6ft from the NE with a period of 11 seconds, which brings a solid groundswell feel. The combined energy jumps right up to 759 to 845, so there’s proper power in the water. This is a proper point break, JT Flemming, and it’s rarely breaks, so when it does, it’s a special thing. The wind is a gentle cross-shore from the ENE, keeping things a bit lumpy but rideable. The water temperature is about average for the time of year. This is the only time in the forecast that offers any real chance of a wave, but the quality is still only marginal.

After that, it drops right back off. From Thursday the 30th of July onwards, we’re back to poor surf with weak, short-period junk and moderate cross-shore winds. The swell fades to 2ft to 3ft by the first week of August, with the energy dropping to between 28 and 162. It’s just a flat, blown-out nothing.

So, if you’re desperate, the 29th of July is your only shot. But don’t get your hopes up. The rest of the 16-day window is a total bust.

Rusty

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