JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at this stretch of coast. I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle session. The wind is howling out of the ENE almost every day, and it’s coming straight across the break, making a mess of things. We’ve got a long gap of poor conditions to sit through, but there’s a tiny light at the end of the tunnel if you’re patient.

The whole first week, from Monday the 24th of August right through to Saturday the 6th of September, is a write-off. The wind is a fresh cross-shore breeze, 15 to 22 mph, tearing up the surface. Even when the swell bumps up a bit, like on the 29th with 5ft of short-period ENE swell (combined energy of 277), it’s all lumpy, messy cross-chop. Not worth paddling out for. There’s a slight pulse of energy on the 1st of September with 6ft swell (energy hitting 489), but that same onshore cross-wind ruins it. It’s just a frustrating, bumpy ocean.

Now, look at Sunday the 6th of September. In the afternoon, things finally start to shift. The wind drops to a moderate 12 mph and turns cross-offshore. The wave comment says "clean," and with 6ft of ENE groundswell (energy of 756), that’s the first real sign of life. It’s marginal, but it’s clean.

The best of the entire run, without a doubt, is Monday the 7th of September in the afternoon. We’ve got a steady 6ft of NE swell coming in at a 10-second period, and the wind is a gentle 9 mph from the east, blowing cross-offshore, keeping the surface clean. The wave comment says "expect good surf conditions," and the energy is a solid 630. This is your window. It’s a beginner-friendly point break, JT Flemming (Kenya), and it’s a rare setup that rarely breaks, so when it does, it’s special. The optimum swell direction is NNW, so this NE swell is a bit angled, but the clean conditions and drop in wind make it the standout. Expect crowds to be possible, as it’s a spot people know about. The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Tuesday the 8th of September morning sees a bit more size at 6ft, but the wind swings back to a moderate cross-shore, 12 mph, and the quality drops off again.

So, to sum it up: you’ve got a solid week of onshore, messy junk to sit through, then a clean-up on Sunday the 6th, and a proper shot at some fun, clean waves on Monday the 7th afternoon. That’s your one and only call. Don’t get your hopes up for anything else.

Rusty.

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