JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards.

Honestly, this 16-day window is a tough one. We’re looking at a stretch where the conditions just aren’t playing ball. The only spot with any recommendation is JT Flemming, and even then, it’s a rare break that rarely breaks. The whole run is a write-off for decent surf. There are no good options on offer here, so don’t bother chasing the ocean for the next couple of weeks.

Kicking off on Saturday, the 1st of August, it’s a no-go. Swell is around 6 ft from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds, but the wind is a fresh cross-off at 22 mph, creating poor surf. The combined energy is moderate at 480. The water is a warm 80°, which is about average for the time of year.

This pattern just repeats. Day after day, it’s the same story. The wind stays stubbornly from the ENE, mostly in the fresh breeze range, keeping the cross-shore chop lumpy. Swell heights bob around from 3 ft to 7 ft, but the period is short – often 7 or 8 seconds – and the wind never cleans it up properly. The morning of the 7th of August has a clean look with cross-off wind, but the swell is only 4 ft with a weak 5-second period and a tiny combined energy of 79, so there’s no real power.

Even when the swell pushes up a bit, like on the afternoon of the 15th of August with 6 ft and 570 combined energy, the wind is still cross and lumpy. The 16th of August morning is the biggest of the bunch with 6 ft and strong energy of 611, but again, it’s a cross breeze and poor conditions. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s a short, choppy windswell.

For a point break that’s rarely breaking, this is a classic blank run. It’s not unusual for the area. Conditions are just not aligning for a paddle. With the persistent side-shore wind and lumpy sea state, this setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Save your energy, folks.

Rusty.

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