JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s go through JT Flemming in feet and miles per hour for those who think that way. I’ll be straight with you – the options are slim to none.

The whole 16-day window is a rough one. The water’s about 81°F, which is normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re sitting there watching closeout chop.

We open Monday the 14th with tiny 2ft waves from the NE, period around 8 seconds. The ENE breeze is blowing 12 mph, cross-shore, putting a chop on that weak energy (72). Nothing worth paddling for. Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th are more of the same: small NE/ENE swell from 2ft to 6ft, but always cross-shore wind in the 15 mph range, keeping things messy and weak – energy stays under 170.

Thursday the 17th brings a jump: swell sits around 6ft from the ENE, period 10 seconds, and the combined energy hits 522 – moderate to strong. But here’s the catch: the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, creating lumpy, choppy conditions. For a spot that *rarely breaks* and is a beginner point, this kind of chop kills any chance of a good ride.

From Friday the 18th through Tuesday the 23rd, the pattern holds – ENE swells from 5ft up to about 6ft, with periods between 8 and 10 seconds, and energy sometimes over 700 on the 23rd. But the wind stays stubbornly ENE, 16 to 22 mph, cross-shore or cross-onshore, keeping the surface lumpy and the lines ugly. This spot needs clean, lined-up groundswell to show its true potential, and it’s just not getting it.

Heading into the 25th, the wind swings to NNE and N, but becomes cross-onshore. Swell drops: from 4ft down to 2ft by the 29th. The most interesting little window is Monday the 28th morning: a tiny 2ft pulse from the NNW with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s real groundswell, and the combined energy is 376 – not bad for such a small height. Wind is 9 mph from the north, classified as "on" (which could mean offshore, and it’s the cleanest wind direction in the whole stretch). That could give a glassy surface, but the swell is tiny, and the direction (NNW) is off from this spot’s favorite. For a wave that *rarely breaks*, that long-period groundswell might produce a few fun ones, but it’s a long shot.

In the end, every session in the forecast gets called "poor surf conditions" and scores a zero. If you’ve got a kite, the steady cross-shore trades might be fun. For a surfboard? This is just a normal dry spell for the area. It won’t last forever, but for now, keep your board in the car.

Rusty.

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