JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one. For the next week and a half, we're looking at a whole lot of nothing good. The wind is relentless out of the ENE, howling at 18 to 19 mph, and it's coming straight across the swell. That’s a recipe for lumpy, choppy, cross-shore junk. The wave energy is mostly weak to moderate, with readings mostly below 300 (combined energy of all swells directed here), just enough to mess up the surface without giving you anything rideable.

The only break on the map is JT Flemming, a point break that’s a beginner-friendly setup, but it rarely breaks. And honestly, for the first eight days, it’s not breaking clean at all. We’ve got a brutal stretch from Sunday the 9th all the way through to the morning of Monday the 17th of August where every single session is labelled "poor surf conditions." The swell is mostly around 4ft to 7ft, but with that wind, it’s a total write-off. It’s just not worth paddling out.

Now, there is one tiny glimmer. On Monday morning, August 17th, the wind finally swings around to a light offshore from the SSE at 9 mph. That’s the moment. The swell drops a bit to 4ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds, and the energy picks up to a moderate 308 (combined energy of all swells directed here). That offshore wind will clean up the point beautifully. For a break that is "rarely breaks", this is a rare, clean window. It's the standout of the whole 16-day run. The water temp is about 80° which feels normal for this time of year. Just be aware, the crowds are listed as "sometimes", so you might have a few others who sniffed out the same window.

After that Monday morning session, it's right back into the same old story. The wind swings back to that nasty cross-shore ENE breeze for the rest of the forecast period, with lumpy conditions returning from Tuesday the 18th onward. There's a big pulse of swell building around the 15th and 16th – we're talking 8ft up to 12ft with very strong energy (1267 up to 3490 combined energy of all swells directed here) – but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the period is long enough that at a point break it could be interesting, but with that wind it’s just a washing machine. That setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So to sum it up: don't even bother until Monday morning, August 17th. That’s your one shot for a clean, offshore session at JT Flemming. After that, it’s back to waiting.

Rusty.

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