JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. I’ve looked at the charts and, well, it’s a tough stretch. I’m not going to sugarcoat it.

To be straight with you, there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. Zilch. Nada. The only break we’ve got to look at is JT Flemming, and it’s not doing us any favors. This spot is a point break that rarely breaks, and unfortunately, that’s going to hold true for the foreseeable future. It’s a bit of a gut punch, especially since the water temp is sitting about average for this time of year.

The pattern is dominated by strong, cross-shore winds coming out of the ENE, and that’s just ruining any chance of clean conditions. The swell is there at times, but it’s short-period, lumpy junk. We start off this Friday with a 6ft swell, but it’s period is only 7 seconds, and with 22 mph cross-shore winds, it’s just a mess. The energy is weak at 281, and the surf is poor.

Saturday sees the swell bump up to 8ft, but the wind gets even stronger, hitting 31 mph. The energy is moderate at 903, but it doesn't matter. It’s blown out and stormy. We might get a clean window on Sunday afternoon when the wind eases to a gentle 9 mph breeze, but the swell drops and the "marginal" tag on it says it all. It’s just not worth the paddle.

The whole first week is like this. A constant stream of ENE cross-shore winds, with lumpy cross-chop. The swell alternates between weak and moderate, but it’s always short-period, mostly 7-8 seconds. This is exactly the kind of surf that will have you battling the current more than riding waves.

There is a brief chance for some cleaner conditions in the middle of the week, but the swell bottoming out to 2ft makes it a non-event. It’s a lot of effort for nothing. By the time we get to the 23rd, the swell completely vanishes, dropping to a pathetic 1ft.

There’s a bit of a pulse of energy around the 27th and 28th, with 7ft swells. The energy reading for the 28th morning is a strong 693, and the period stretches out to 10 seconds. But guess what? The wind is still cross-shore and messy. It’s a powerful, ugly ocean. I wouldn’t be surprised if that setup is more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers. It’s just a wall of chop.

Honestly, with a break this inconsistent and a forecast this bad, a blank run like this is more normal for the area. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but it happens. We just have to wait for the pattern to shift. When the wind finally gets offshore or even just glassy, spots like this can turn on, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Keep the boards in the car just in case, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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