JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. The entire 16-day window is a bit of a write-off for decent waves at JT Flemming (point). There’s no standout session, no real window where it all comes together. The water's sitting at 80°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The pattern kicks off from Friday, July 31st, and it’s all cross-shore wind, blowing fresh at 22 mph, with swell from the ENE. The waves are there, around 5 ft to 6 ft, but the wind is just ruining it, creating a lumpy, cross-chop mess. The combined energy is moderate on the 31st (250), but it spikes to a strong 480-504 over the weekend of August 1st and 2nd. That sounds powerful, but with the wind howling onshore, it’s a complete write-off for a clean surf. The period is short, around 8 seconds, so it’s weak, bumpy windswell.

Monday August 3rd and Tuesday August 4th see the wind ease a little to a gentle to moderate breeze, still cross-shore. The swell drops a bit to 4 ft on the 4th, and the period stretches to 11 seconds, which is better. Energy is moderate to strong (334-417). But it’s still not clean. The cross-shore wind leaves a chop on the surface.

From Wednesday August 5th right through to the end of the first week, the story repeats. Swell sizes bounce between 3 ft and 6 ft, all from the ENE, with periods staying short, mostly 6-8 seconds. The wind is relentless – a fresh breeze, always cross-shore. The energy fluctuates from weak (97 on the 6th afternoon) to moderate (277 on the 8th). It’s just messy.

The second week doesn’t get much better. From Monday August 10th through to Saturday August 15th, it’s the same script. Swell stays small, mostly under 4 ft, and the wind is a constant cross-shore fresh breeze. There’s a glimmer of something on Thursday August 13th. The morning shows a tiny 2 ft swell from the west with a very long 13-second period. The wind turns cross-offshore and is only a gentle breeze, so the conditions are described as clean. The energy is moderate (226). That’s the closest we get to a surfable wave, but it’s tiny. The afternoon gets a bit more size at 4 ft from the NE, still clean, and the energy picks up to 287. But it’s a 1/10 score for the morning and a 1/10 for the afternoon – just marginal.

After that, Friday and Saturday the 14th and 15th have some west swell with periods around 11-12 seconds, but the wind cranks back up to a fresh cross-shore, and it’s lumpy again.

Mate, this is one of those stretches where the forecast is a blank run. A spot like JT Flemming, which rarely breaks, needs a perfect swell direction from the NNW to work. That’s not happening. The wind is never offshore, and the swell is always from the wrong direction. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-shore wind and consistent chop on the 5 ft+ days might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass. The outlook is poor, but forecasts can change. I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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