JT Flemming Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto mate, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the forecast for our little slice of the coast.

First up, I’ll be straight with you—looking at the 16-day window, it’s a tough stretch for a decent paddle. There’s only one break that pops up on the radar, and it’s a bit of a quirky one. The first real chance for a wave is from Sunday, the 16th of August.

The main story here is a point break called JT Flemming. It’s a beginner-friendly wave, but it’s not exactly a regular performer, only breaking rarely, so when it does switch on, it’s notable. The fact that it’s a point setup is key because it handles the swell direction a lot better than a beach break would.

Let’s walk through it. On Sunday morning the 16th, we see a 7ft ENE swell with a period of 9 seconds and a cross-offshore wind from the E at 19 mph. The combined swell energy is moderate at (589). The wind is strong but off-shore, which will keep the face reasonably clean, but that size and the stormy weather risk t-storms make it a bit of a mission. The afternoon cleans up with lighter E wind at 9 mph and the swell drops to 6ft, still offering some shape. This is really the only window that looks remotely surfable in the first few days.

From Monday the 17th right through the rest of the week, it’s a write-off. The swell hangs around but the wind swings cross-shore from the ENE, blowing at 12-19 mph, turning the surface into a mess of chop. The swell height drops below 5ft with short periods of 5-7 seconds, and the combined energy falls into the weak range (under 100 for most of it). The wave comment is consistently "poor surf conditions," and the scores reflect that—there's nothing worth paddling out for.

We hit a big gap here with no real recommendations for days. It keeps looking grim through the end of August. The swell tries to build again around the 27th, hitting 6ft and then 7ft on the 28th with moderate combined energy (400-604), but the wind is still cross-shore and strong at 19 mph, creating lumpy, choppy conditions. The wave period stays short at 8 seconds, so it’s all wind-slop. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, with that much wind and poor quality, you might as well rig up a kite—this is more a kite-surfing scene than a paddle one.

Towards the very end of the window, on Saturday the 29th, the swell peaks at 8ft from the ENE with a 9-second period and combined energy of 888, which is solidly moderate. But again, the cross-shore wind at 19 mph completely ruins the surface. It’s still marked as "poor surf conditions." The only bright spot is the morning of Sunday the 30th, where the wind flickers to a cross-offshore from the E at 19 mph, cleaning it up a touch with a 5ft swell. It’s still not a standout, but if you’re desperate, that’s your best bet in the entire 16 days.

Overall, it’s a lean forecast. JT Flemming is the only option, and it’s inconsistent and mostly blown out. The water temperature anomaly is not mentioned for the break, so I’ll save my breath on that.

Signing off, Rusty.

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