Horace Caldwell Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about what’s coming up at Horace Caldwell Pier, folks. It’s Rusty here.

Look, I gotta tell you straight up: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing but "poor surf conditions" flagged, so don’t get your hopes up. There’s a gap of nearly ten days where you’d be better off doing just about anything else.

Right from Sunday July 5th through to the 11th, it’s a write-off. Swell is tiny, barely 1 ft to 4 ft out of the SSE to SE, with periods sitting at a weak 4 to 6 seconds. That’s just wind chop with no grunt. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, 9 to 16 mph, making the surface choppy and lumpy. Combined wave energy stays weak, under 100 mostly, except for a few spikes mid-week. It doesn’t matter if it’s clear or a risk of thunderstorms—the surf is junk.

Now, around the 11th, we get a little bump. On the Saturday afternoon, the swell picks up to 6 ft from the SE, and energy jumps to 236—moderate range. But it’s still blown out with 16 mph onshore wind and poor conditions. That size is pushing into beginner territory, but with that wind, it’s messy and not worth the paddle out.

The 12th and 13th show more swell, 4 ft to 5 ft, energy in the 150 to 218 range, but again, onshore or cross-onshore winds ruin it. Periods are still only 6 to 7 seconds, so it’s weak and lumpy.

Then, here’s the one small ray of light: Tuesday morning the 14th. We’ve got glassy conditions with a light 3 mph breeze from the SSE, and the swell is 4 ft out of the SE with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 200. For a moment, it’s surfable, but the commentary says it’s just “very ordinary.” Still, glassy wind is a big plus, so if you’re desperate, that Tuesday morning is the only time I’d even consider it. Crowds are possible here—this spot can get busy sometimes, so early is your friend.

After that, it falls apart again. The 15th and 16th have nothing—swell drops to 1 ft to 3 ft, energy below 100. The 17th and 18th show a bit more size, 4 ft to 5 ft, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and by the 18th we’ve got gale-force ESE winds at 25 mph. That’s not for surfing; that’s kite territory at a beach/pier setup.

The final weekend, the 19th and 20th, has 4 ft to 5 ft but it’s all blown out with 16 to 25 mph winds from the S and SSE, making it lumpy and messy. Not worth the drive.

Honestly, this is a depressing run. If you absolutely have to get wet, set your alarm for Tuesday the 14th morning when it goes glassy. Otherwise, save your energy and wait for a better forecast. If you’re a beginner, steer clear when the swell hits over 5 ft, which it does a couple times here—that’s too much. For everyone else, the poor wind and short period mean it’s just not going to be fun.

Stay patient, mates.

- Rusty

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