El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days are a bit of a write-off for a proper paddle. We're looking at a long, grim stretch for El Muelle. The first surfable day doesn't even appear until the 6th of August, and even then, it's a tough call.

The water is sitting at 73°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's about the only comfort you'll get.

Let's talk about the early part. From the 31st of July right through to the 5th of August, it's poor. We're seeing tiny, weak swells – mostly from the north and northwest, with combined energy struggling to get past a measly 121 (moderate at best, but mostly weak). Periods are short, under 10 seconds, and the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. Not worth getting wet.

Things change a bit from the 6th of August. The swell starts to build. On the 6th, we get a 4ft to 5ft northerly swell with period around 6 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 192 – still moderate. The problem? The wind is blowing onshore at 18 to 22 mph. That's a fresh breeze, and it's going to ruin what little shape there is.

The 7th and 8th of August see the swell peak. We're looking at 5ft to 6ft from the north-northeast. The combined energy hits 388, which is strong. But again, the wind is onshore. For a reef and point setup like El Muelle, an onshore wind is a killer. It's going to be bumpy and blown out. This size is getting into the zone where it's a bit much for beginners, but the wind makes it miserable for everyone.

The 9th of August has the biggest combined energy of the whole period at 501, with a 5ft northeast swell. But the culprit is still the wind – onshore from the north at 12 mph. The period is a short 8 seconds, so it's not a proper groundswell.

From the 10th of August onwards, we've got a consistent 4ft to 5ft northerly swell, but the story is the same every day: onshore wind. It's a fresh breeze most days, hitting 18 mph. The combined energy stays in the 200-300 range, which is moderate to strong, but with the wind direction, it's a lost cause for a clean surf. For the final day on the 15th, the swell drops to 4ft and the wind is still onshore.

Honestly, with the onshore wind and the size of the swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The conditions are just not there for us. The forecasts can always change, but right now, I'd wait for the next swell window.

Rusty, signing off.

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