El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up at El Muelle (reef and point). I gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days are a tough run. The first solid surfable day ain’t on the cards until July 22nd, and even then, it’s a bit of a grind before we see anything worth paddling out for.

The swell is coming in mostly from the N and NNE, which is a decent direction for this spot, but the wind is a real problem. From Thursday the 16th right through to the 21st, we’ve got onshore winds cranking at 15 to 22 mph, and the surf is tiny – only 1 ft to 5 ft. The water temp is sitting at 74°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when the waves are weak and messy. The combined swell energy is barely getting into triple digits (the highest before the 22nd is 189), so it’s weak to moderate at best. Honestly, it’s poor surf conditions all the way.

Now, from July 22nd, we start to see a bit more life. The swell picks up to 5 ft from the N, with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 301, which is moderate wave energy. The wind is still onshore from the N at 19 mph, but the surf is getting bigger. By the 25th, the swell hits 6 ft, and the energy cranks up to 431 (moderate, heading toward strong). But here’s the catch – the wind is relentless, blowing onshore at 19 mph, so the waves are gonna be lumpy and hard to love. The best-looking stretch is July 26th, where the swell is 6 ft from the N, period 8 seconds, and the combined energy is 499 – the strongest in the whole run. The wind is still onshore, but if you’re desperate for a wave, this is the day to look at. July 31st also has a similar vibe: 5 ft with a long-period 8-second swell and energy at 503, but again, that onshore wind messes it up.

Overall, there’s no standout session here. The wind never goes offshore or glassy, and the swell direction is always onshore. The break is consistent, but the conditions are poor. For the first week, it’s a total write-off – just 1 ft to 5 ft of slop. The second week has more size, but the quality is always compromised by the wind. If you’re a kiter, this setup might look interesting with the strong onshore winds, but for paddle surfing, it’s a hard pass. Keep watching the charts – it can’t stay this bad forever.

Rusty.

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