El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with the full 16-day look at what’s on offer.

Right off the bat, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this stretch is a tough one. The whole forecast window is stamped "poor surf conditions" across every single session, and the scoreboard is a flat zero. That’s not great, but let’s dig into what’s actually happening.

The water temperature at El Muelle is sitting at 75°F with a 3°F anomaly, so it’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – you’ll be comfortable in a spring suit.

We’ve got a real gap in any decent surf. The first few days, from Monday the 31st of August right through to the start of September, are all onshore wind with a moderate to fresh breeze out of the NNE and N. Swell is small, around 4ft to 5ft, but the period is short at 7–8 seconds, and the wind is blowing straight on. The combined energy is weak to moderate (195–236), but it’s all messy. No bueno.

Wednesday the 2nd of September sees a bump in swell height to 6ft, and the combined energy climbs to 392 (moderate), but the wind is still onshore from the N at 19 mph. That’s just choppy, lumpy, and not worth paddling out for.

From Thursday the 3rd to Saturday the 5th, the wind goes cross-onshore, and the swell drops back to under 4ft with short, weak periods. The combined energy dips into the double digits (94–186). The wind is moderate to fresh, so it’s a cross-onshore mess. Kite surfers might get a look in here, but for paddle surfing, it’s a skip.

Sunday the 6th of September is interesting – we get a long-period groundswell from the NNW at 16 seconds, but the swell height is tiny at 1ft to 2ft. The combined energy jumps to 199–300 (moderate), but the wind is cross-onshore from the NNW at 16 mph. That long period is wasted on such small waves and dirty wind. Not worth it.

The following week, from Monday the 7th to Saturday the 13th, the pattern stays the same – small swell (1.0ft to 4ft), short to moderate periods, and mostly onshore or cross-onshore winds. The combined energy is weak to moderate (60–258). There’s a tiny window on Monday the 7th and Thursday the 10th with lighter onshore winds, but the swell is too small and weak to do anything with.

Then, on Tuesday the 15th of September, we get a proper spike. Swell from the NW at 4ft to 4ft, with a very long period of 15–16 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 780 (morning) and 694 (afternoon). The wind is onshore from the N in the morning, then cross-onshore from the NNW in the afternoon. This is a groundswell event, but the wind is still dirty. For a point break like El Muelle, that long-period swell could wrap in nicely, but with the wind on it, it’s going to be lumpy. Still, this is the best we’ve got in the whole 16 days, and it’s a week and a half away – so keep an eye on the forecast, but don’t bank on it.

Overall, this is a blank run for the area. El Muelle is consistent, but the conditions have just not aligned. Things can change, but right now, I’d be checking the wind apps and hoping for a better window.

Stay tuned, and I’ll be back when the ocean decides to cooperate.

Rusty.

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