El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a good look at what we've got coming down the pipe. It's a bit of a weird one, so let's get into it.

For the next couple of weeks, there's only one spot that's even on the cards, and that's El Muelle. It's a reef and point setup, and it's usually consistent, but this forecast is a tough read.

Right out of the gate, starting from Tuesday the 14th of July, El Muelle is a total write-off. The swell is tiny, around 3ft, and it's coming from the NNW with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is a cross-onshore, so the surface is going to be choppy and messy. The water's a bit warmer than average for this time of year at 73°, but that doesn't help the surf. The combined energy is a weak 83, and the system is just calling it "poor surf conditions." Honestly, this is a day to find something else to do.

That poor stretch looks to drag on for days. Wednesday the 15th through to Sunday the 20th, we're looking at the same story: wave heights barely topping 4ft, short periods from the N or NNE, and almost constant onshore or cross-onshore wind. The combined energy stays in the low hundreds, peaking at 159 on the afternoon of the 21st, but the wind is still a fresh onshore breeze. The surf quality is never there. It's a long, flat, blown-out run for the first full week.

We finally see a bit more energy rolling in from the 22nd of July onward. The swell bumps up to a consistent 4ft from the north, and the period stretches to 7 seconds. The combined energy climbs into the 200s, hitting 296 on the afternoon of the 27th. But here's the kicker – the wind is still holding firm from the north, creating an onshore wind for this break. It's pumping energy, but it's going to be a messy, lumpy mess to surf. The forecast is still calling it "poor surf conditions" right through.

The one time it might get interesting is right at the end. On Tuesday the 28th of July, the swell is forecast to push 5ft from the north with an 8-second period. The combined energy jumps up into the 400s (455). That's a lot of water moving. However, the wind is still a strong onshore breeze, so it's going to be a tough paddle and a battle to get a clean wave. At that size, it's getting too big for beginners, but with the onshore wind, it's not perfect for experts either. Honestly, with that setup, it starts to look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, the bottom line: El Muelle is the only name in the hat, but the conditions just don't line up. We've got a gap of over a week of genuinely poor surf before things get bigger, but never clean. There's no standout day, no moment where the wind drops and the swell delivers. It's just a long stretch of onshore northerly winds ruining what swell there is.

Frustrating, I know, but that's how it's sitting right now. Keep an eye on the charts, but don't hold your breath for this one.

Rusty.

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