El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s not sugarcoat it—this stretch of coast is looking pretty average for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got waves, but they’re short-period windswell, and the wind’s mostly cross-onshore or onshore, so it’s going to be lumpy and chopped up more often than not. At El Muelle, water temp’s about 74°F, roughly 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year—not huge, but you’ll notice it if you’re used to it.

From Friday the 14th through Sunday the 16th, it’s grim. Friday afternoon has a 4ft swell from the north, period 7 seconds, with a cross-onshore NNE breeze at 12 mph—energy’s weak, just 185, and the surface is choppy. Saturday morning’s a touch bigger at 4ft, but the wind picks up to 16 mph, still cross-onshore. Sunday’s smaller, 3ft, and the wind eases a bit, but it’s still not worth paddling out.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th aren’t any better. Swell hangs around 3–3ft, period 8–9 seconds, with morning onshore winds and afternoons going cross-onshore. Energy stays weak-to-moderate, 129–147, and there’s afternoon chop. Wednesday the 19th sees a lull—swell drops to 3ft, period 9 seconds, light winds in the morning but cross-onshore again in the afternoon.

Thursday the 20th is the quietest, swell down to 2–3ft, period 8 seconds, and the afternoon wind picks up to 16 mph—nothing doing. Friday the 21st bumps up slightly to 4ft, but the period drops to 6 seconds and the wind is 16–19 mph onshore. Saturday the 22nd is similar, 4ft, period 6–7 seconds, fresh cross-onshore breeze, lumpy.

Now, here’s where the swell picks up, but still not clean. Sunday the 23rd sees 5ft from the NNE, period 7 seconds, energy jumps to 257—more push, but fresh cross-onshore wind at 19 mph ruins it. Monday the 24th is the biggest—5ft from the north, period 8 seconds, energy at 385—but again, 19–22 mph cross-onshore winds mess up the surface.

From Tuesday the 25th through Thursday the 27th, the swell holds around 5–5ft, periods 7–8 seconds, energy in the 274–368 range. Winds ease to 12–16 mph, but they’re still mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s choppy. Thursday afternoon has a slight shift to NNW, but it’s still cross-onshore. By Friday the 28th, the swell backs off to 4ft, period 7 seconds, with onshore winds at 16–19 mph. Saturday the 29th is the odd one—morning has 4ft from the north, period 6 seconds, but the afternoon shows a 2ft swell from the northwest with a 12-second period, a hint of longer-period groundswell, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph onshore, so no good.

Bottom line: no standout window. The only real highlight is early next week—Monday the 24th through Thursday the 27th—when the swell is at its biggest, 5–5ft, and if you find a sheltered corner, there might be some push. But with the winds the way they are, it’s mostly going to be messy. For beginners, anything over 5ft is getting too much, and with these short periods, it’s not going to be pretty. Honestly, if the wind doesn’t ease, this might be better for kitesurfing than paddle surfing.

Keep an eye on it—forecasts change, and that longer-period swell on the 29th could be a sign of something better down the line. But for now, don’t cancel your plans, just bring your patience.

Rusty.

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