El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for this stretch.

To be straight up, this is a tough outlook. Over the next 16 days, there’s really nothing that screams “go time” at El Muelle. The pattern is locked into persistent onshore northerly winds that just won’t give the waves a chance to clean up. We’re looking at weak swell, short periods, and messy conditions for the bulk of the run. The water temp is pretty standard for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

The first two weeks are a grind. The combined wave energy stays low, hovering in the 100 to 200 range (moderate energy) most days, but it doesn’t matter because the wind is always blowing onshore – mostly a moderate breeze, sometimes a fresh breeze, and it’s almost always straight onshore. The swell is small, 1 ft to 4 ft, coming from the north or north-northeast, with periods down around 5 to 8 seconds, which is short-period, wind-driven stuff. The forecast calls this “poor surf conditions” every session, and from the looks of it, that’s spot on. The afternoon of the 12th is a classic example: 3 ft from the north, only 6 seconds, onshore wind… just a mess.

There’s never a point where you’d paddle out and find a clean, lined-up wave. The wind stays onshore right through to the 25th. The one slight shift comes around the 18th and 19th where the swell period climbs to 9 seconds and the combined energy pushes up a little, but the wind is still onshore or cross-onshore, so the quality just isn’t there. For a reef and point break like El Muelle, that onshore wind is a killer – it blows out the shape.

Honestly, if you’re looking at the swell and the wind together, this setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than traditional paddle surfing, especially on the 15th when the wind hits 19 mph from the north-northeast.

Late in the window, around the 25th, there’s a tiny flicker of hope. The swell period finally climbs to 9 seconds, and the combined energy hits 140, but again, the wind is onshore. It’s still a no-go.

The bottom line: there are zero standout sessions in this whole 16-day run. It’s a rare blank spell for the area, but sometimes the forecast just gives you a big fat “stay on the beach.”

Rusty.

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