El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gather round surf rats, it’s Rusty here. We’ve got a long 16-day window ahead for El Muelle, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. The whole period is plagued by onshore and cross-onshore winds, with the swell direction often pinned right on the nose or coming from a poor angle. The combined energy never really gets into that sweet spot for clean, rippable waves, and the score is a big fat zero across the board until the very end. Honestly, for the first week-plus, this is a write-off.

We kick off Tuesday morning, August 25th, and it’s already ugly. A 4ft swell from the NNW at 10 seconds sounds okay on paper, but a cross-onshore NNE breeze at 12 mph is chopping it all up. The combined swell energy is 349 (moderate), but with conditions described as "poor" and wind state "moderate cross-onshore and choppy," you’d be fighting a losing battle. That sets the tone. Wednesday the 26th through Friday the 28th is the same sad song: onshore wind, lumpy conditions, and swell dropping to a pathetic 1ft on Thursday morning with only 28 energy (weak). Friday the 28th sees a jump to 5ft, but that’s with a 22 mph cross-onshore wind that’s pure "fresh cross-onshore and lumpy" – that’s kite-surfing breeze, not paddle-surfing.

Saturday the 29th brings our first little tease. We get a 6ft swell from the north with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 739 (strong). That’s a decent amount of water moving. But the problem? It’s still onshore wind, 19 mph, from the NNE. That 6ft is too big for beginners, and with that wind, it’s gonna be a messy wall for experts, not a gem. The optimum swell direction for El Muelle is NNW, and we’re getting N, so it’s off-angle. It’s frustrating because there’s energy there, but the wind is just ruining it.

We then go through a dead zone from Sunday the 30th all the way through to Thursday, September 3rd. Small, weak swells, onshore wind, and more "poor surf conditions." Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are tiny, with energy dropping below 100 (weak). You’re looking at a solid 6-7 day gap with absolutely nothing worth paddling out for.

Then, things get weird and interesting. On Sunday, September 6th, the swell direction suddenly swings to the west, with a period of 15 seconds (very long-period groundswell). That’s a game-changer for the angle, but the size is only 2ft – too small to do anything with the energy. The combined energy is 225 (moderate), which tells you the power is there, but the height is just a dribble.

Finally, the last few days of the forecast show some real potential, but it’s a long-range promise. Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th see a solid WNW groundswell building. Monday morning we have 3ft at 14 seconds (586 energy – strong), but the wind is cross-onshore and choppy again. By Tuesday morning, September 8th, we hit 4ft at 14 seconds with a combined energy of 799 (very strong). The wind is still onshore from the north at 13 mph, which is a bummer, but the swell direction (WNW) is close to the optimum NNW. This is the standout window. That 4ft might read small, but with that long period and strong energy, it could wrap in nicely and offer some proper shape – long period swells love point breaks and reefs like El Muelle. The catch is the onshore wind will still put a chop on it. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got in this entire 16-day run.

So, if you must paddle out, hold tight for Tuesday, September 8th. It’s a promising but less certain call given it’s so far out, but that WNW swell is the only real hope in a desert of onshore slop. For the rest, leave the board at home and save your energy.

Rusty.

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