El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – this outlook for El Muelle is a real tough one. For the next 16 days, the forecast is pretty much a write-off. There’s no surf worth paddling out for, and the conditions are messy. It’s a rare stretch where the swell, wind, and quality just aren’t lining up.

Starting now, Saturday the 5th of September, we’ve got a weak, short-period swell pushing in from the north at 3 ft with a period of only 5 seconds and combined energy sitting at just 69. That’s not enough to get excited about, and the wind is howling onshore from the north at 12 mph. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 75 °F, but that’s the only positive. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” It’s a no-go.

Sunday the 6th stays poor. The swell bumps up a little to 4 ft from the north, but the period is still only 6 seconds, and the energy creeps up to 135. The wind is still onshore, and the quality is still rated as poor. No change, no fun.

Monday the 7th sees a shift in swell direction to the northwest, and the period jumps to 12 seconds, which is better. Swell height drops to 2 ft, but the energy hits 219. That’s a moderate level of energy for such a small wave, which means it’s very long-period groundswell. But the wind is still onshore from the north at 9–12 mph, and the surf is still described as poor. This long-period swell at a reef and point break like El Muelle could shape up nicely, but with the wind on it, it’s messy.

The rest of the week – Tuesday the 8th through to Saturday the 12th – is more of the same. Swell sizes range from 2 ft to 5 ft, periods between 7 and 12 seconds, and energy bouncing between 164 and 366. The wind stays mostly onshore or cross-onshore, gusting up to 22 mph. The wave comment never changes: “poor surf conditions.” For a few days, the swell gets over 5 ft, like Saturday the 12th morning with 5 ft from the north at 8 seconds and 366 energy. That’s too big for beginners and, with the wind on it, it’d be a mess for anyone. Honestly, with that much wind and that kind of swell, the setup at El Muelle looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday the 13th brings a slight change. The wind drops to just 3 mph from the west-northwest, but it’s cross-onshore. Swell is 3 ft from the north at 8 seconds, energy 175. Still, it’s rated poor. The wind is light, but the quality isn’t there.

The second week, from Monday the 14th onwards, it doesn’t get any better. Swell sizes drop below 3 ft, periods stay around 7–8 seconds, and energy falls below 100 by the end of the week. The wind finally turns offshore on Monday the 14th morning – from the southeast at 9 mph, cross-offshore – and the wave comment is “clean.” That’s the best we see, but the swell is only 2 ft with 136 energy. It’s surfable, but not standout. The rest of the week is a mix of cross-onshore and onshore winds, with tiny swell and poor quality.

Thursday the 17th has a small spike to 3 ft from the north-northeast, but the wind is onshore and the period is only 7 seconds. It’s just another day of poor surf.

So, the long and short of it: there’s a dry spell from now until the 20th of September. The only hint of something better is that El Muelle is a consistent break, so it tends not to stay poor for long, and forecasts can change. But for now, I’d keep the board in the car and wait for a better call.

Rusty.

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