El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down for the next sixteen days at El Muelle. I’ll be straight with you – this is a rough stretch. The water is sitting at 73°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a bit of a silver lining, but the surf is a mess.

We start on Monday, July 20th, and it’s ugly right away. The wind is cranking from the NNE at 22 mph, cross-on and then onshore, and the swell is a weak 5ft from the NNE with a period of just 6 seconds. The combined energy is only 176 (weak), and the call is poor. This pattern just sticks. Tuesday the 21st through Friday the 24th is the same grind: onshore wind every session, mostly from the N or NNE at 19 to 22 mph, and the swell is all short-period windswell, 4ft to 5ft, with energy readings between 160 and 298. It’s lumpy, choppy, and not worth your time.

The weekend of the 25th and 26th shows a bit more size – 6ft on Saturday, 6ft on Sunday – but it’s still short-period (8 seconds) and the wind is howling onshore at 22 mph. The energy jumps into the moderate range (450 and 426), but the quality is zero. That’s more of a kite-surfing deal than a paddle session. The whole first week is a blank.

Into the second week, Monday the 27th through Thursday the 30th, the swell drops to 3ft to 5ft, still onshore wind, still poor. The energy dips to 139 on the 28th morning – that’s barely a ripple. It’s a long, dry run.

Now, here’s the one chance. On Sunday, August 2nd, we finally see something. The morning session has a 7ft swell from the N with a 9-second period, and the wind eases to a light 9 mph from the N, which is onshore but gentle. The combined energy hits 883 – that’s moderate, pushing strong. The forecast is only “marginal” with a score of 1, but it’s the best on offer. That swell is big enough for experts only (over 5ft), and at 9 seconds it’s a mid-period groundswell, so it’ll have some power. The light wind might keep it cleaner than anything else in this window. It’s the standout, but it’s a long way out, so don’t get your hopes up too high.

Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th fade back to 5ft, onshore, and poor. The whole 16 days is a tough go. El Muelle is a consistent reef and point, but with this relentless onshore wind and short-period swell, it’s just not happening. If you’re desperate, aim for the 2nd of August morning, but keep your expectations low.

Rusty.

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