El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break down what's coming for this stretch of coast.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim. There's a long run of days where the conditions just aren't cooperating. If you're hoping for a good session, you might be waiting a while.

It starts on Sunday, September 6th, and it's a rough one. We've got a weak, short-period windswell out of the north at about 4ft, but the wind is a solid 25 km/h onshore. The water temp is around 75°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, but that's the only positive. The wave energy is weak (136), and the whole thing is messy.

This pattern of onshore northerly winds and small, choppy surf sticks around for days. Monday the 7th has a little more promise with a 2ft swell from the NNW at a longer period of 12 seconds, and the wave energy picks up to moderate (265), but it's still blown out by a 20 km/h onshore wind. Tuesday and Wednesday are more of the same – small, onshore, and not worth paddling out.

The wind stays stubborn from the north through Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th, with swell around 3 to 4ft but the period dropping back to 7 seconds. That's short-period junk, and the energy is only moderate (173 to 288). The onshore breeze is fresh too, at 30 km/h, so it's going to be lumpy and tough.

We get a bit of a break on Saturday the 12th with lighter winds, but the swell is still small and weak. Sunday the 13th is the same story – barely any swell (3 to 3ft) and light cross-onshore winds. Not exactly firing.

There's a slight improvement on Monday the 14th with a 2 to 2ft swell from the NNW at a longer period of 12 to 13 seconds. That's proper groundswell, but the wave energy is still only moderate (183 to 197), and the cross-onshore wind is making it choppy. Not the standout you'd want.

The rest of the week into the 16th and 17th is back to onshore northerly winds and small, short-period swell. It's just not happening. We're looking at a gap of several days where there's nothing to recommend.

Even into the second week, from the 18th of September onwards, it doesn't get much better. There's a pulse of longer-period swell (12 seconds) on Friday the 18th with moderate energy (315), but the wind is still onshore at 25 to 35 km/h. The weekend of the 19th and 20th offers a little hope with lighter winds and a cross-shore breeze, but the swell is tiny – 2 to 3ft – and the period is short again. It's not going to produce any sort of quality wave.

The only spot in the mix is El Muelle, a reef and point break that's usually consistent. But with the forecast being this poor across the board, even a spot that's fairly exposed to the north-northwest swell isn't getting enough clean energy to work. The crowds can be an issue here, but honestly, I don't think many will be out in these conditions.

So, the straight truth is: there's no standout session in this 16-day window. The surf is poor, the wind is wrong, and the swell is weak. If you're desperate for a paddle, maybe keep an eye on the morning of Monday, September 21st – there's a 4ft swell from the NNW at 10 seconds with light cross-onshore winds, but it's a long way off and the confidence is low. For now, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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