El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but the honest truth is there’s not a single standout session worth getting excited about. The models are showing a long stretch of onshore and cross-onshore winds from the north-northeast through northeast, which is just trash for this spot.

We start off on Tuesday the 4th of August. The morning has a bit of swell from the north at 3 ft, but a 12 mph breeze from the north-northeast is blowing straight onto it, making it a no-go. The combined wave energy is weak at 137. That afternoon, the swell jacks up slightly to 4 ft from the northeast, but the wind switches to a cross-onshore, and the energy jumps to moderate at 244, but it’s choppy and messy. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are the same sad story – 4 ft to 4 ft swell from the north-northeast, with 12-16 mph winds ruining any chance of clean surf. The energy sits in the moderate range (159-223), but it’s all poor surf conditions.

Friday the 7th through to the morning of Sunday the 9th, the swell builds a bit, hitting 5 ft to 6 ft from the north, with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is a solid 19 mph onshore, and the energy climbs into the strong range (267-413). This is getting too big for beginners at over 5 ft, and with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. Honestly, for the experienced crew, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The water temperature is sitting at 73°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than normal for this time of year – not a crazy anomaly, but it feels a touch balmy.

From the 10th of August through to the 15th, we’re stuck in a rut. Swell stays around 3 ft to 4 ft, period is short (6-7 seconds), and the wind is relentless from the north or north-northeast at 16-19 mph. The energy drops back to moderate (122-249), but the quality is non-existent. It’s the same onshore junk every day.

There is a glimmer of hope right at the end. On Sunday the 16th, the wind finally drops to a light breeze of 9 mph, but the swell is tiny at 2 ft from the north, with energy collapsing to a weak 51-59. Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th see a longer-period swell arrive (10 seconds) from the north-northwest, with the wind backing off to 6-9 mph. The swell is a knee-high 3 ft to 3 ft, and the energy is moderate (142-206). This is the closest we get to a clean surfable wave, but it’s still just poor surf conditions according to the data. The longer period might help the shape a bit at this reef and point break, but it’s not enough to call it a standout.

So, the bottom line: there’s a 12-day gap of poor conditions from the 4th to the 15th, and the only half-decent window is on the 17th and 18th, but it’s still a gamble. A blank run like this is normal for this area when the wind doesn’t cooperate. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, I’d save your energy.

Rusty.

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