El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The outlook for the next couple of weeks is a bit of a tough one. We’ve got consistent swell running, but it’s plagued by persistent onshore winds pretty much the whole time, which means the waves are going to be messy and poor. There’s no standout sessions in the first week, but we do see a little bump in energy heading into the second week that might be worth a look if you're desperate.

The first surfable energy kicks in on Sunday, July 26th at El Muelle, a reef and point setup. The swell is 5ft from the north, but it’s a short-period 8 seconds and the wind is a fresh 19 mph northerly right onshore. The water is a warm 72°, sitting about 1° above the long-term average for this time of year, so it’s just a touch warmer than usual. The combined energy is moderate at 337 but the wind is just trashing it. This pattern continues day after day.

Monday, July 27th is more of the same. The swell drops to 4ft from the north, still 8 seconds, wind is 16 mph onshore. The energy is lower at 178, and the surf is a write-off. Tuesday, July 28th offers 3ft north swell, 8 seconds, with 12 mph onshore wind, energy of 123. Still poor. Wednesday, July 29th sees the swell drop to 3ft, period down to 5 seconds in the afternoon, and energy down to 75. It’s weak and onshore. Thursday, July 30th is a tiny 3ft morning swell with a 5-second period and 86 energy, then 3ft in the afternoon. All onshore.

Friday, July 31st gives a little pulse – 4ft north swell, 6 seconds, 12 mph wind onshore, energy of 137. Still not clean. Saturday, August 1st is a mix. The morning has 3ft north swell but the wind swings to the northwest at 16 mph, making it cross-onshore and choppy. The afternoon sees a drop to 2ft but a much longer 10-second period from the WNW, with a lighter 9 mph onshore wind. Energy is 171. The longer period groundswell will give better shape but the wind is still a problem. Sunday, August 2nd is back to small, weak swell with onshore winds.

Now, the second week gets a little more interesting. From Monday, August 3rd, the swell period starts to strengthen. The morning has 3ft from the north with a 9-second period and 214 energy, with a light 9 mph onshore breeze. The afternoon pushes 4ft, 8 seconds, and 246 energy. The wind is still a problem but the energy is building. Tuesday, August 4th is similar with 4ft, 8 seconds, and 215 energy, but the wind is cross-onshore in the morning, creating some chop.

Wednesday, August 5th and Thursday, August 6th are a flat line of 3ft north swell, 7 seconds, with 150-170 energy, no real change. Friday, August 7th is the same. Saturday, August 8th is where it gets a bit more serious. The morning is 4ft, 7 seconds, 216 energy. But the afternoon shows a jump to 5ft from the NE with a 9-second period, and the combined energy rockets to 654. That’s strong wave energy. The wind is still onshore at 16 mph, so the conditions will be poor, but the power is there. This is the best-looking swell in the entire 16-day window.

Sunday, August 9th keeps the energy high with 6ft north swell (8 seconds) and 450 energy in the morning, and 5ft in the afternoon (443 energy). Still onshore. Monday, August 10th has 5ft to 6ft north-northeast swell, 8 seconds, with 409-461 energy. The wind is lighter in the morning at 9 mph onshore, but it’s still onshore.

So, the real standout here is the Saturday, August 8th afternoon session at El Muelle. The swell is 5ft from the NE with a 9-second period, and the combined energy of 654 is the highest of the entire forecast. The onshore wind is a big letdown, but that's all we've got. For a reef and point break, the longer period should give a decent line, but the wind will still make it bumpy. This is for experienced surfers; the 6ft on Sunday is also solid but again, onshore wind. Beginners will want to sit this whole period out.

Overall, it’s a long, bleak stretch of onshore conditions. The second week has more power, but it is not clean. Keep your eyes on the forecasts, but for now, it’s a struggle.

Rusty.

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