El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let me tell you what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks, but I gotta be straight with you from the get-go – it’s been a rough stretch. We’re looking at El Muelle, a reef and point setup, and honestly, the forecast is a tough read. The water’s sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 73°F, so that’s a small comfort, but the waves? Barely a whisper.

We kick off on Tuesday, July 28th, with a tiny 3ft swell from the north, slow and weak at 8 seconds. The wind’s blowing onshore at 15 mph, and the combined energy is a measly 110. It’s just not worth paddling out. Wednesday the 29th is more of the same – 3ft, onshore winds, energy in the 70s to 100s. This is a tough start.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st see a slight bump to 4ft, but the swell period stays short at 7 seconds, and the wind gets cross-onshore, making things choppy. The energy climbs a bit, but the quality is still poor. The first weekend of August is a write-off, with 3ft to 3ft mush and cross-shore winds. The entire first week is a gap with no rideable surf.

We finally see a bit more push in the second week. From Monday, August 3rd, through to Thursday the 6th, the swell nudges up to 4ft to 5ft, with energy hitting the 200s and nearly 300. The wind stays mostly onshore, though, and the period is still short. It’s looking better for a kite than a paddle. The swell is there, but the quality is poor.

Then we get to the real standout, but it’s a long way off. On Monday, August 10th, and Tuesday, August 11th, the swell jumps to 6ft from the north, with the period finally stretching to 8 seconds. The combined energy roars into the 400s (433 to 462). That’s the most juice we’ve seen. The wind is onshore at 12 to 15 mph, but the size is genuine. For the experts out there, that’s the window to watch. The waves will have some punch, but keep in mind it’s a beach-and-point setup, so that longer period swell might stand up a bit straight. Still, this is the best we’ve got. The last day, Wednesday, August 12th, drops a touch to 5ft to 6ft, and the wind gets cross-onshore and lumpy.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a total dud. The second week has some size but the wind is a problem. The only real shot is that 10th and 11th of August, when the north swell peaks. It’s a long-range call, so treat it with a bit of caution, but that’s the one to pencil in. For now, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the sky.

Rusty.

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