El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s look at what we’ve got on the table for El Muelle over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a tough stretch. For the first week and a half, the ocean is just not cooperating. The swell is tiny – we’re talking 1.0 ft to 2 ft most days, with weak, short-period windswell that’s mostly coming from the north-northwest. The wind is on it or cross-on it practically the whole time, with a moderate breeze and a choppy surface. The combined energy is pathetic, barely cracking 50 for most of the first few days. It’s a real struggle to get a ride.

We do see a bit of a pulse starting around Sunday the 12th, with the swell pushing up to 3 ft and a 10-11 second period from the NNW. The combined energy jumps to 135 on the morning and 195 in the afternoon, which is moderate but still nothing to get excited about. The winds stay onshore, though, so it’s looking messy.

The real uptick comes on the 16th of July. The swell height bumps up to 5 ft from the north, with a period of 7-8 seconds. The combined energy gets into the 300s, which is a solid step up. But the wind is still on it, blowing from the north-northeast at 15 mph. That’s a clean, offshore wind for El Muelle, which is a major positive. The problem is that with a short period, it’s going to be a bit of a walled-up, choppy mess at the reef and point setup. It’s not going to be clean, shapey surf. It’s more of a powerful, but raw, push. For an intermediate, this is going to be a challenge. The water is about average for the time of year, no real anomaly to speak of.

The 18th of July is the best of a bad bunch. The swell is 5 ft from the north, the period is 8 seconds, and the combined energy hits 378. The wind is lighter, from the north at 12 mph, still offshore. It’s the most energy we’ll see in the whole 16-day window, but it’s still not great. The short period means the waves will be steep and punchy, and the reef and point might hold it together, but it’s a far cry from lined-up groundswell. It’s the standout, but it’s a low bar.

After the 19th, it drops off again. The swell backs down to 3-4 ft, the period shortens, and the energy fades. It’s a long, slow slide back into the doldrums.

So, the short version: we’ve got very little that’s worth paddling out for. The 18th of July is the only day that has enough energy to be interesting, and even then, the quality is poor. If you’re desperate, you might find a few lumpy ones, but this is a stretch for the core. The consistent nature of the break means it’s not unusual to have a blank run like this. Conditions can change, but right now, it’s a wait-and-see situation.

Rusty.

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