El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a rough stretch for surfing. The data’s all pointing the same way, and that’s towards a lot of blown-out, messy conditions at El Muelle (a reef and point set-up).

We’re looking at a period where the swell is there, but the wind is just killing it. It’s mostly coming from the north, which is almost always cross-on or straight onshore for this spot. That means choppy, lumpy waves that are pretty hard to enjoy. It’s not a total flat spell, but it’s not going to be pretty.

Looking at the first week, starting Thursday the 6th, we have a small, short-period swell, but it’s getting hit with a 16 mph cross-on wind. The energy is weak, under 250, and the conditions are just poor. This pattern just keeps repeating. Every day, the swell stays around 3ft to 4ft, but the wind stays on it from the N or NNE. The period stays short, mostly 6-8 seconds, so it’s just weak, wind-blown slop.

The water temp on Thursday morning is reading 74°, which is a touch warmer than the average for this time of year. That’s a small positive, I guess.

As we get into the second week, say from the 12th onward, the wind does back off a little, dropping to 12-16 mph, but it stays onshore. The swell is similar, hanging around 3ft to 4ft, but with the same short periods. There’s a brief window on the morning of Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th where the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph breeze, but it's still onshore, so I wouldn’t get too excited about it.

The last couple of days, the 20th and 21st, the energy really fades out, dropping below 100. The swell gets smaller and weaker.

There’s nothing here that’s a standout. The combination of short-period swell and relentless onshore wind means the quality just won’t be there. It might be one of those times where the setup honestly looks a little more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. But, I’ve seen it go flat before and come back, so don’t write it off completely just yet. Keep an eye on it, but maybe plan a surf trip somewhere else if you can.

Rusty out.

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