El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming in for this stretch.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. The entire 16-day window is a bit of a struggle, with no good surf to speak of. We’re looking at a long, dry spell right from the get-go. The first recommendation doesn't come until Tuesday morning, July 7th, and even then, it's a flat-out "poor surf conditions" call all the way through to the end of the forecast on Wednesday, July 22nd. That's a solid two weeks and a bit of waiting.

Our only break on the radar is El Muelle. This is a reef and point setup, and it’s a consistent spot, which usually means it’s got something going on more often than not. But not this time. The water temp right now is sitting at about 72°F, which is 2°F warmer than the norm for this time of year – that’s a bit on the warm side, which is nice for a session even if the waves aren't there.

Tuesday morning, July 7th, we’re looking at tiny 1ft, 7-second swell straight out of the north with a gentle onshore breeze. The combined energy is weak at 34, and conditions are just poor. That sets the theme.

The whole first week is basically the same story: tiny swells from the N to NNW, mostly onshore or cross-onshore wind, and wave comments calling it "poor surf conditions" every single time. From Thursday, July 9th, through the weekend, the wind picks up to a moderate breeze (12-16 mph) and the swell barely makes it past 3ft. The combined energy stays weak, in the 30s to 40s. Honestly, it looks more like a kite surfing setup than a paddle surfing one for the beach.

We get a tiny flicker around Sunday, July 12th, when the period jumps to 11 seconds from the NW, and the energy gets up to 91. But it’s still only 1ft of swell with a 16 mph onshore wind. It’s a tease.

Heading into the second week, the swell gets a little bigger but the quality stays terrible. Wednesday, July 15th, we see 4ft swell from the north with a 7-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 126, but it's all onshore wind again. The wind stays stubbornly on your face from the N or NNE, often blowing at 12 to 19 mph. By Sunday, July 19th, there’s 4ft to 5ft swell from the north with a 7-second period, energy hitting 201, but it's useless with that wind.

The biggest swell of the forecast shows up on Wednesday, July 22nd, with 6ft to 6ft from the north, an 8-second period, and combined energy reaching a strong 467. But again, it's ruined by a moderate cross-onshore wind. For a reef and point break, that’s a real shame. With those onshore conditions and a short period, the shape will be poor.

There are no standouts here. Not one single recommendation to get excited about. The wind just doesn’t cooperate, and the swell direction is mostly pinned to the north while the break’s optimum is NNW. The only silver-lining for a patient surfer might be the Wednesday, July 22nd session if that cross-onshore eased off, but as it stands, it's a no-go.

It’s a blank run for the area, plain and simple. Don’t bother paddling out unless you’re just after a float. Forecasts can change, but this one looks locked in for a while.

Rusty.

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