El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board, but maybe leave the hope at home for a while. This is a tough stretch. I'm looking at El Muelle, and honestly, it's a real battle for the next couple of weeks.

The whole window is dominated by a strong, persistent northerly wind pattern. It's blowing onshore, cross-onshore, or just generally messing up what little surf there is. The swell is there, building from a weak 3ft on Tuesday afternoon to something with more punch later on, but the wind just kills any chance of it being clean. You’re looking at choppy, lumpy, and generally uninviting conditions. The combined wave energy starts way down at 92, showing just how weak it is early, and even when it climbs into the low hundreds, like 131 and 146 on Thursday and Friday, the onshore wind makes it a mess. The water temp is 75°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, which is one small blessing.

The first week is a write-off. From the 18th through to the 24th, it’s the same story, winds are on it, and the waves are weak. We're looking at 3ft to 4ft of wind-blown slop with a short, choppy 7-8 second period. There's zero quality on offer, and the score shows it. You'd be fighting the wind more than surfing. We've got a few days with a bit more size around the 22nd and 24th, but it's all onshore junk. This isn't a surfer's window.

The second week starts to show more energy, but the wind refuses to let up. Around the 27th and 28th, the swell kicks up to 5ft-5ft, and the combined energy jumps into the strong range, hitting 366 on the 28th. That's some real power in the water. But with those consistent 19-22 mph onshore and cross-onshore winds, it's just going to be a stormy, lumpy mess. It’s getting bigger, from 4ft to 5ft, but the period is still short and the wind is howling. This is not the time for a paddle. On the 30th, there's a peak in energy hitting 405, but again, it's accompanied by cross-onshore winds. For an exposed reef and point like El Muelle, with northerly winds and this kind of chop, it looks like it'd be a washing machine and would be more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers.

There is nothing here that pushes me to call a standout day. It's a blank run. The swell direction is north, which can work, but the quality is just not there. With the forecast all pointing to strong winds and poor conditions, I’d say give it a miss. It’s a sustained period of poor surf, but with some fairly consistent swell coming through later, it won't stay poor forever. Forecasts can change. But right now, I wouldn't bother getting the wetsuit wet.

Rusty.

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