El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you about the options we've got in the water for the next couple of weeks. The focus is on El Muelle, a reef and point set-up that can handle a bit of size, but the truth is, we're looking at a real dry spell.

The overall pattern is about as flat as a pancake for quality surfing. The finder hasn't found a single standout day worth paddling out for. It’s going to be a tough run, with every single session over the next 16 days rated as "poor surf conditions." From the 16th of August right through to the 31st, there’s nothing to get excited about.

For El Muelle, we’ve got some small swell nudging in, mostly from the north with short-period windswell around 7 to 8 seconds. The combined wave energy is mostly below 200, often in the moderate 100s, peaking at a modest 298 on the 24th morning. The whole period is plagued by onshore winds – mostly from the north or north-northeast. It’s consistently cross-on or straight onshore, leaving the surface choppy and lumpy. Even when the wind eases a touch, like on the 23rd, it’s still bringing in that cross-onshore bump.

The water temp is sitting at a warm 73°F, which is about 1°F above average for this time of year. Nothing crazy, just a little warmer than usual. But that’s small comfort when the conditions are this messy.

Date by Date:

- August 16 (Sunday): Small 3 ft from the north, but onshore breeze kills it.
- August 17-21: Swell sticks around 2 ft to 3 ft, but every session has onshore or cross-on wind. Choppy, weak, and frustrating.
- August 22: A little bump to 4 ft, but still onshore and a moderate 206 energy. Not worth it.
- August 23: A slight jump in period to 10 seconds on the Sunday morning, but still cross-on.
- August 24-25: Swell pushes up to 5 ft, but the wind howls from the NNE at 19 mph, fresh and lumpy. Too windy to be any fun.
- August 26-31: Wind stays strong from the NNE (16-22 mph), keeping everything messy. Swell drops back to 3 ft - 4 ft. More of the same.

The Bottom Line

Honestly, there is no standout here. The best of a bad bunch *might* be the morning of the 23rd, when the swell has a bit more period (10 seconds), but it’s still cross-on and only 3 ft. Don’t get your hopes up.

With this much onshore wind and modest, short-period swell hitting a beach and reef set-up, this stretch looks far more interesting for kite surfing than for paddle surfing. If you absolutely have to get in the water, bring a grovel board and low expectations. Forecasts can change, and a blank run isn't unheard of for this area, but right now, it's a hard pass.

Stay patient,
Rusty

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