El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what the next couple of weeks are serving up for us.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—this is a tough outlook. There's going to be a long stretch of onshore wind and pretty average surf, and honestly, for the first ten days or so, it’s going to be a struggle to find anything worth paddling out for. We’re looking at a solid week of poor conditions, with a moderate breeze from the north and north-northeast just hammering the surface. The waves are there, but they’re junky and blown out.

The first real glimmer of hope is a long way off, on the 5th of August. That’s when we finally see a shift in the swell window. For the morning of the 5th, we’ve got a new pulse of swell coming from the west-northwest with a proper long period of 12 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to 205 (moderate), which is way more interesting than anything we’ve seen. The waves are only forecast at 2 ft, but that long period means there’s some real grunt behind them. The problem is the wind is still a cross-onshore from the north-northeast, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and choppy. It’s not a total write-off, but it’s far from prime.

El Muelle is the only spot on the cards here, and it’s a reef and point setup. It’s fairly exposed to the swell, so it should pick up that west-northwest groundswell. The water temp is sitting at 73°, which is right around normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. Keep in mind though, this break can get crowded, and on the 5th, with the period being over 11 seconds, the waves will be more defined and powerful, but they might also be a bit too straight for the beach section. It’s a point break though, so it should handle that long period better than a beach.

The following week sees us from the 6th of August, and it’s more of the same—wind remains onshore from the north, and the swell drops back to short-period, weak junk. The energy is weak (142) and the period drops to 10 seconds and then 6 seconds. It’s just not doing it for me.

The Standout: Honestly, the only thing that has any potential is that morning of the 5th of August. The west-northwest groundswell with a 12-second period has the best chance of providing a few solid, clean lines, even if the wind is a bit messy. It’s a long-range call, so don’t bank on it, but it’s the one to watch. Everything else in the 16-day window is a skip.

Rusty.

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