El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. I’ve had a good long look at what’s coming down the line for us over the next couple of weeks, and I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. The swell is small and the wind is a problem more often than not, so we’re going to have to be patient. There are no real standouts in the whole 16-day window, just a few moments that might be worth a look if you’re desperate for a paddle.

We kick off on Friday the 4th of September with tiny 2ft windswell out of the north, and a period of 7 seconds. The water temp is sitting at 75.4°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – something to keep in mind. The wind is onshore from the NNW all day at 9 to 16 mph, so conditions are poor right out of the gate. The combined energy is weak at 62. Not a good start.

Moving into Saturday the 5th of September, it’s more of the same. The swell drops to 1.3ft in the morning from the NW, then jumps to 3.3ft in the afternoon, but it’s short-period junk at 6 to 9 seconds. The wind is still onshore from the north at 12-16 mph, and the wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” Energy is still low at 65 in the morning, climbing to 95 in the afternoon.

We see a slight uptick on Sunday the 6th of September, with the swell reaching 3.6ft from the north, period still a short 6 seconds. The combined energy finally breaks into triple digits at 135, but it’s all onshore wind from the north at 12-16 mph. It’s not surfable. That trend continues through Monday and Tuesday, with swell holding around 3.6-3.9ft and periods in the 7-8 second range. Energy builds to the low 300s by Monday the 7th, but the wind is still onshore or cross-onshore. Monday afternoon gets a “moderate cross-onshore and choppy” description. By Tuesday the 8th, we get some clear skies, but the onshore wind is 12-19 mph, and the afternoon is “fresh cross-onshore and lumpy.” It’s rough.

The middle of the following week doesn’t get much better. Wednesday the 9th through to Friday the 11th sees swell hanging around 3.3-3.9ft, with periods of 7-8 seconds, and onshore wind blowing 12-16 mph. Energy is in the 200-360 range, so there’s some push in the water, but the wind is ruining any chance of a clean wave. Thursday the 10th has a “moderate cross-onshore and choppy” afternoon.

Saturday the 12th of September is the biggest swell of the period, hitting 4.3ft from the north with a period of 7 seconds. The energy is 264, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph onshore from the north. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. It’s the same story on Sunday the 13th with 3ft and 16 mph onshore wind.

We finally get a bit of a reprieve on Monday the 14th. Swell is 3.6ft from the north, period 8 seconds, and the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph from the north in the morning. The combined energy is 239. The morning is still onshore, but with lighter wind, it’s less terrible. The afternoon is cross-onshore, so not clean.

Tuesday the 15th through to Thursday the 17th sees the swell drop back to 2.6-3ft, periods of 8-9 seconds. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, 6-12 mph. Energy drops into the 100s. There’s a little light wind on Wednesday the 16th morning, but it’s cross-onshore and small.

The last few days, from Friday the 18th through Saturday the 19th of September, are a total fade. Swell drops to 2-2.3ft, period 7-8 seconds, and the onshore wind is back at 12-16 mph. Energy is below 100. The 16-day window ends with nothing to recommend.

Honestly, if you are looking at El Muelle (El-Muelle), a reef and point break that’s consistent and intermediate-friendly, the whole forecast is a wash. The wind is our enemy for almost the entire period, and the swell never gets the size or period to overcome it. This is a wait-and-see situation – we just need the wind to swing around.

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