El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for El Muelle over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, this is a tough stretch. The first week and a half is mostly a write-off for surf. The wind is howling onshore from the north and north-northeast, rag-dolling the ocean surface. Swell is small to maybe a touch over head-high at times, but the quality is just junk because of that wind. The water temp is 74°, about 1° warmer than what's normal for this time of year, so pretty average for the season.

The one small window that catches my eye is Sunday afternoon, the 13th. The wind suddenly drops to a glassy 3 mph from the northeast. Glassy. That’s a rare treat here. The swell is only 4 ft from the north with a short 8-second period, and the wave energy is moderate at 205. It’s not gonna be pumping, but for this stretch, it’s the closest you’ll get to clean lines. The break is a reef and point setup, and it’s consistent, so you can rely on a wave coming through. Keep an eye out for the odd surfer though – crowds are often around. That Sunday arvo is the standout.

Then we go dead again. A long, empty gap. Swell drops right off through Monday the 14th to Wednesday the 16th. We’re looking at tiny waves, 1 ft to 2 ft, and cross-onshore winds. Not worth a paddle.

Things try to pick up again from Thursday the 17th through the weekend of the 19th. Swell builds back to 4 ft to 5 ft from the north and north-northeast, with moderate wave energy (248 to 316). But the wind is still a problem – a fresh onshore breeze from the north. The waves will be bumpy and unruly. It’s a standard beach-and-reef setup, but with the wind and size, this looks more interesting for the kite crew than a surfer.

Now, the true dark horse is Monday morning, the 21st. A powerful groundswell lights up the outlook: 3 ft of swell from the north-northwest with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is huge – 721. That means raw power. But it’s onshore wind from the north-northwest, holding it together enough for a “marginal” rating. This kind of long-period energy is best suited for a point or reef like El Muelle, where it can really wrap in and offer a proper wall, but the wind is going to put a chop on the face. If you’re an experienced local who knows the tide and the banks, it could still offer a few memorable ones. This is the real standout of the entire 16-day window – big, long-period groundswell, but with a caveat about surface conditions. Anything after that on Tuesday the 22nd and into the next week is average at best.

Bottom line: the 13th for a glassy small-wave session, and the 21st for a powerful, cranking groundswell if you can handle the onshore bump. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more