El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, boys and girls, Rusty here, looking at the local stretch for the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it's a bit of a tough one to call. The models are showing swell on the horizon, but the wind is just not playing ball. Looking at our main reef and point set-up, El Muelle, the story is the same day after day. We’ve got a consistent, small northerly swell rolling in, but it’s being hammered by a relentless onshore wind from the NNE to N. The water temp is pretty much where it should be for this time of year, so no surprises there, just typical choppy conditions.

Right from the start, Thursday the 13th of August, we’re looking at a 3 ft swell from the north with a short period of 6 seconds. The combined energy is weak (153), but that doesn’t even matter because the wind is blowing straight onto the waves at 12–16 mph. It’s going to be a messy, bumpy mess. This poor surf quality just keeps rolling on through Friday and Saturday. By Saturday the 15th, the swell bumps up to 4 ft and the energy creeps into moderate territory (205), but that onshore wind is still pumping at 16 mph. It’s frustrating.

We get a slight change come Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th, but it’s not the change we want. The wind swings round to the NW, putting it cross-onshore, and the wave comment says it all: "moderate cross-onshore and choppy". The swell’s hanging around 3 ft, but it’s not clean enough to call it a goer. There’s a real gap here for any decent surf.

The story doesn’t get any better as we head into the second week. The swell dips down to tiny 2–3 ft with weak energy through the 20th and 21st, and by the 22nd of August, the swell bumps back up to 4 ft from the north, with the energy rising to 218 (moderate). But once again, the wind is solid onshore from the north at 16 mph.

If I had to pick the absolute best of a bad bunch, it would have to be Sunday the 23rd of August. The morning shows a 4 ft north swell with a slightly longer 9-second period, combined energy of 231. But again, the wind is onshore. However, by the afternoon, the swell is still 4 ft and the wind is a touch lighter from the north at 12 mph. It’s still onshore, so it’s not glassy, but with that higher energy and reasonable size for El Muelle, and the optimum direction being NNW... we’re a bit off, but it’s the closest thing to a functional wave in this entire outlook. The crowds are ‘often’ here, so expect company, but honestly, with conditions like this, it might be quiet.

For the last few days, into the 28th, the swell fades again and the wind gets stronger, with a fresh breeze up to 19 mph. The whole period is a write-off for a proper surf. With consistent onshore wind and a beach-and-reef setup, this stretch is really looking more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle-surfing one. Tough, but that’s how it is.

Stay patient, lads. It’ll turn.
- Rusty.

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