El Muelle Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s lined up for us.

Honestly, looking at the whole sixteen-day window, it’s a pretty grim run for El Muelle. The swell is around most days, but the wind just won’t cooperate. It’s almost always blowing onshore or cross-onshore, making a mess of things. There are no real standouts here—every single session is marked as poor surf conditions, so you’d be battling chop and lumpy water if you even bother to paddle out.

The first bit of surf worth talking about starts on Sunday the 16th of August, but it’s a tough one. A 3 ft to 3 ft northerly swell with a short, weak period of 7 to 8 seconds is coming in. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate (108 and below), but the wind is cross-onshore from the NNE at 16 mph, so the surface will be choppy. Not a great look for a reef and point break that would normally love a bit of NNW swell.

Monday the 17th through Thursday the 20th doesn't get any better. The swell hangs around 3 ft to 3 ft from the north, period still short at 8 seconds. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, with combined energy bouncing between 90 and 142—all weak to moderate. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing out of the ordinary, but you won't be enjoying it much with that wind.

As we move into Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd, the swell bumps up a little to 4 ft to 4 ft from the north, still with a short 7 to 8 second period. The combined energy climbs into the low 200s, so there’s a bit more push, but the wind is onshore from the north at 16 mph. It’s still messy, and for a break that’s fairly exposed, it’s just not going to shape up well. This is in that beginner-friendly range size-wise, but the conditions are poor, so it’s not really suitable for anyone.

The following week, from the 23rd of August onward, it’s more of the same. Swell drops back to 2 ft to 4 ft, with the wind staying onshore or cross-onshore, often increasing to 19 to 25 mph. By the 26th and 27th, we get a pulse of 5 ft to 5 ft from the north-northeast, with combined energy hitting 229 to 312 (moderate). The period is still short at 7 to 8 seconds, and the wind is a fresh onshore breeze. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, it’s getting into the "more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing" territory, especially with that strong cross-onshore wind and lumpy surf.

The last few days of August into the 31st see the swell settle back to 3 ft to 5 ft, but the wind still blows onshore or cross-onshore. There’s nothing clean in the forecast. The entire 16 days is a blank run for quality surf at El Muelle. For this area, that’s not unusual when the wind sets in from the north.

Hang in there. Things can change, but right now there’s nothing to get excited about.

Rusty.

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