East Runton Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, it’s a pretty flat and gloomy-looking stretch ahead for us here at East Runton. I gotta be straight with you—looking through this whole 16-day window, there’s nothing that’s going to get the heart pumping. The surf stays small and messy for the most part, and the wind is all over the shop, mostly blowing onshore or sideways, chopping things up. We’re starting right now on Wednesday the 16th, and honestly, we’re looking at a run of poor conditions straight through to the end of September.

Right off the bat, Wednesday morning has a bit of swell around `3 ft` from the NNW with a short period of `5` seconds, but with a strong WNW wind at `16 mph` blowing straight across it, it’s just a lumpy cross-chop mess. Water’s sitting at `64°` which is `4°` warmer than usual for this time of year—that’s noticeably warm, almost a bit weird, but it’s the only thing that’s going to make the paddle out bearable. That afternoon the swell drops to `2 ft`, so there’s nothing to work with.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are cleaner—we get a cross-offshore wind, so the surface smooths out—but the swell just dies. We’re talking `2 ft` and `1 ft` with short-period stuff. You could get a knee-high dribble on the right bank, but it’s not worth suiting up for anything but a log and even then, it’s a struggle. Saturday the 19th is basically flat, `0.3 ft`—that’s a total non-event.

Sunday the 20th sees a little bump back up to `3 ft` from the NW, but the period’s still only `5` seconds and the wind goes cross-shore again, so it’s just lumpy and weak. A couple of closeouts maybe, but nothing rideable for more than a second. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd stay small with onshore winds—`2 ft` and `1 ft`—so it’s not looking like anything’s going to change.

Wednesday the 23rd is flat again, `0.7 ft`. We then start to see a bit more energy coming in from Thursday the 24th—there’s `4 ft` from the NE with a period of `6` seconds and a cross-onshore wind that just chops it up. The combined energy is only `72`, so it’s weak and messy. Friday the 25th drops back to `2 ft`, still cross-shore, still messy. And then through Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th, we get easterly winds blowing at `19-22 mph` with lumpy cross-chop, the swell staying around `2 ft`. It’s essentially a washing machine out there.

Monday the 28th drops again to `1 ft` with `22 mph` winds from the ESE—just ugly, blown-out slop. Tuesday the 29th is nearly flat with no energy, and the wind goes onshore. Wednesday the 30th is still weak, `2 ft` with choppy onshore wind. Not a single decent wave in there.

Now, heading into the first week of October, things finally start to shift a little. On Thursday the 1st of October, we actually see the swell pick up a touch—morning shows `3 ft` from the N with a period of `8` seconds and the combined energy jumps up to `142`, which is at least moderate. But there’s a fresh cross-shore wind at `19 mph` that’s making it lumpy. The afternoon pushes a bit more size at `4 ft` from the NW, but the period drops to `5` seconds and the cross-onshore wind kills it. Still, it’s the most energy we’ve seen all stretch.

So, look, I’m not going to sugarcoat it. There is no standout day here. Every single record is marked as poor surf conditions. There’s not one swell that lines up with a decent wind. The only thing slightly more interesting is that October 1st bump, but it’s still messy and short-period. For beginners, the water’s warm, but the waves are mostly not even worth paddling for. If you’re a keen surfer, I’d honestly hang up the board for the next couple of weeks and wait for something real. The only saving grace is the warmer than usual water—but that doesn’t fix a flat, blown-out ocean.

Signing off, Rusty.

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