E-Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you: this 16-day window for E-Bay is a real mixed bag and mostly a game of patience. The swell is there, but the wind is a persistent problem for most of the run, making it tough to get a clean wave. The standout window is right at the very end, on the 2nd of September, when things finally line up. For the size, it’s generally manageable—most days are under 7 ft—so it’s not a total washout, but you’ll be scratching your head a lot.

We start off on Friday, the 21st of August, with a solid 5 ft swell from the SSW at 15 seconds, but the wind is onshore from the SE at 9 mph. The combined energy is strong at 1598, but the report calls it marginal, and honestly, the onshore breeze will chop it up. It’s an advanced, fairly consistent reef break, and the water temp is a warm 85°, which is about average for the time of year. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so it could get busy even when it’s average.

The next few days are a repeat of the same story. Saturday the 22nd sees a bump to 6 ft from the S (16 seconds, energy 1736), but it’s still onshore from the SE at 12 mph. Sunday the 23rd drops to 4 ft, and by Monday the 24th, we’re dealing with risk of thunderstorms and onshore wind. The combined energy is still moderate to strong (661 to 1987), but the wind direction is spoiling it. For a few days, the scores are rock bottom—0 or 1 out of 10—so it’s not worth paddling out.

Then we hit a bit of a lull. From the 26th of August through the 30th, the swell drops to 2 ft to 3 ft, and the energy falls to weak levels (269 to 812). The wind stays onshore, mostly light, but it’s still not clean. There’s a brief moment on the afternoon of the 30th of August where the wind goes glassy, with just a 3 mph breeze from the SSE and a 2 ft swell from the S at 13 seconds. The energy is weak at 287, but the report says “expect good surf conditions,” so if you’re desperate, you could catch a knee-high wave, but it’s not a standout.

The real standout is the 2nd of September. Wednesday morning, the 2nd, we get a 4 ft SSW swell at 16 seconds with zero wind—dead calm, glassy as a mirror. The energy is moderate at 902, and the report says “expect very good surf conditions.” The wind stays glassy into the afternoon with a 4 ft swell. This is the best on offer, no question. The period is 16 seconds, which is a nice groundswell, and it’s a reef break, so the long period should work well here. Just be aware that the crowds are “sometimes,” so it might have a few people out.

After that, it fades. Thursday the 3rd of September drops to 3 ft with cross-onshore wind, and the rest of the run into the 5th is small, weak, and mostly onshore. The combined energy falls to 270-578, and the scores are poor to marginal.

The gap between the last decent swell on the 1st of September and the 2nd is only a day, but the real gap is from the 26th of August to the 1st of September—a stretch of about 6 days where the surf is tiny or messy. Don’t get your hopes up for the first week. The 2nd of September is your one real shot, and it’s worth marking on the calendar, but it’s a long way out, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty.

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