Scarecrows Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming at Scarecrows for the next couple of weeks. It’s a slow start, but there’s some serious juice building in the second half.

Right now, Monday afternoon, it’s a bit messy. Swell is 6ft from the SW with a 16-second period, but that south wind is blowing 12 mph straight across, putting a cross-chop on it. The combined energy is moderate (1714), but the conditions aren’t doing it any favours. Tuesday morning shapes up cleaner with a cross-off breeze, swell dropping a touch to 6ft from the SSW and a 15-second period—still moderate energy (1310), but the clean face will make it rideable. Not a standout, but a solid warm-up.

Wednesday and Thursday stay in the 5ft to 5ft range with the same SSW direction, periods around 14-15 seconds. Winds stay cross-off in the mornings, which keeps it clean, but the energy dips a bit (1000-1126). The afternoons get cross-shore and a bit bumpy. Friday drops further to 4ft-4ft and the energy slides under 900—those days are a write-off for anything decent.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Saturday the 19th morning, we see a jump in quality. Swell sits at 4ft but the period stretches to 18 seconds—that’s a long-period groundswell, and it’s bringing real power with a combined energy of 1657. The wind is light offshore from the SE at 6 mph, keeping it clean. This is a reef break, and with that long-period swell, it’ll bend nicely around the point rather than just closing out. The crowd factor here is “sometimes,” so you might have company, but for the quality on offer, it’s worth sharing a few waves. This is the first proper standout of the period.

Sunday the 20th morning bumps up to 7ft from the SSW at 16 seconds—that’s getting solid. Combined energy jumps to 2249, which is strong. Winds are cross-off from the SE at 16 mph, so it stays clean, but at 7ft, this is for experienced surfers only. If you’re not comfortable in overhead reef surf, give this one a miss.

Monday the 21st morning is another gem. Swell holds at 6ft from the SSW with a 14-second period, combined energy at 1182—moderate but punchy. Winds are light offshore from the ESE at 6 mph, keeping the surface glassy. Clean, lined-up waves for the early session. This is a top pick for the week.

Things ease off into the 22nd and 23rd, with swell dropping to 3ft-5ft, but the 27th of September is the real big one. Sunday the 27th morning delivers 6ft from the SSW with a 20-second period—that’s very long-period groundswell. Combined energy is a massive 3203, which is strong. Winds are gentle offshore from the SE at 9 mph, making for clean, powerful waves. This is the absolute standout of the entire 16-day window. Afternoon sees it build to 7ft with 18-second period and energy up to 3622, but the wind shifts cross-shore, so stick to the morning.

Monday the 28th morning is glassy—wind is 3 mph from the ESE, which is dead offshore, and the swell is 7ft at 16 seconds. Combined energy is 2250. That’s big, clean, and perfect for the crew who know what they’re doing. Again, for experts only at that size.

Water temp is sitting at 84°F with an anomaly of +0.5°F, so pretty average for this time of year. No surprises there.

Overall, the best windows are Saturday the 19th morning, Monday the 21st morning, and the absolute standout—Sunday the 27th morning. After that, the swell tapers into the 29th with 5ft and cleaner conditions, but the energy drops.

Stay safe out there, and don’t sleep on that 27th.

Rusty

Read more