Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what Cape Schanck is looking like for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got some solid swell coming in on Sunday the 23rd, but the big standout is going to be Monday the 31st and Tuesday the 1st of September. There’s a bit of a lull in between, so let’s get into it.

Sunday morning the 23rd, we’ve got a solid 8ft SW swell rolling in with a 14-second period. The combined energy is cranking at 2503 – that’s serious power. Wind’s a light NNW cross-off, so the surface should be clean. This is an advanced reef break, and at that size it’s for experienced surfers only. The water temp is about 57°, which is roughly a degree warmer than normal for this time of year – a bit mild.

Sunday afternoon the 23rd drops to 6ft, still SW, and the wind goes light northerly – still cross-off. That’s going to be super clean, and the energy is still high at 1895. A solid afternoon.

Monday the 24th, the swell backs off to 5ft, but a strong northerly wind at 22 mph is going to mess it up. The energy drops to 874. Marginal.

Tuesday the 25th is similar – 5ft SW swell with an easterly cross-off at 16 mph. Energy is 802. Not great. Tuesday afternoon sees a light SW onshore and the swell drops to 5ft. Still average.

Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th are poor. Strong SW onshore winds on Wednesday ruin the 6ft and 5ft swells. Thursday morning the swell drops to 4ft, and the cross-shore wind isn’t helping. Thursday afternoon looks a bit better with a light NNW cross-off and a 4ft SW swell, but it’s nothing special.

Friday the 28th morning, we get a spike – 7ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period. The combined energy is huge at 2691, but the wind is a moderate NW cross-shore, creating a cross-chop. This long-period groundswell is better for reefs and points, but with the chop it’s marginal.

Saturday the 29th is a write-off – a 5ft SW swell with cross-shore wind and chop, then a tiny 3ft SW onshore in the arvo.

Sunday the 30th brings back size – 8ft SW swell with a 16-second period and strong energy at 2570, but the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. Not clean.

Now for the real highlight. Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September are the pick of the bunch. Monday morning we’ve got 7ft SW swell at 15 seconds, combined energy of 2208, and a light NNW cross-off wind. That’s clean, powerful, and for advanced surfers only. Monday afternoon is just as good – 7ft SW, same long period, light NNW cross-off, energy at 1967. Tuesday the 1st of September morning drops to 6ft but still with a nice 14-second period and clean cross-off wind, energy at 1290. These few days are the standout – good size, clean wind, and proper groundswell.

After that, it gets messy. Wednesday the 2nd of September has a howling northerly at 22 mph and a tiny 1ft swell in the morning, then a 6ft SW swell in the afternoon but still strong wind. Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th are poor with strong winds and chop. Saturday the 5th is flat and messy. Sunday the 6th of September has a tiny 2ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period in the morning – that’s a glassy, clean morning but tiny. Sunday afternoon picks up to 6ft SW with a glassy wind – that could be a sneaky good session, but it’s a long way out.

Monday the 7th of September is a write-off with a near-gale and a 10ft SW swell that’s blown to bits.

So the takeaway: Sunday the 23rd is a good start, but the real gold is Monday the 31st through Tuesday the 1st of September. After that, it’s mostly a waiting game.

Rusty.

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