Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Looks like it’s going to be a bit of a mixed bag for the next couple of weeks, but we’ve got a few windows to get excited about. Let's get into it.

Overall, the forecast is a story of waiting. The early part of the window is a write-off – strong winds and messy conditions are going to keep things pretty ugly. But patience will pay off, especially for the more experienced crew. The standout session is clearly the Saturday of the 12th, with clean conditions and a solid groundswell. There's a bit of promise further out as well, but that's a long way off.

Right now, through to the end of the first week of September, it’s grim. We’ve got howling cross and onshore winds, mainly from the SW and WNW, blowing 25 to 28 mph. The swell is there, but it’s completely unsurfable. You’d be mad to even look at the water. This mess continues straight through the 6th, 7th, and 8th. The morning of the 7th has a weak 4ft swell with a shocking 6-second period, and the rest of the week is just big, blown-out slop. The water temp is sitting at a cool 57°, about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year, which is noticeable but nothing wild.

Now, the first real glimmer of hope shows up on Saturday, September 12th. This is your session. The wind will swing around to a light NNW breeze at 6 mph, giving us a clean cross-off at Cape Schanck (Cape Schanck). We’re looking at a solid 7ft swell from the SW, with a long 15-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a strong 2363, so it's got some serious push. This is a reef break, and it's a consistent one, which is perfect for that long-period swell. The only bummer is the crowds are marked as "often," so you’ll have some company. The morning of the 12th is the pick, with the afternoon holding up nicely too. It’s marked for experienced surfers, and with that size and power, it’s not for beginners.

Sunday the 13th still has some clean conditions with a cross-off wind, but the wind is up to 22 mph in the morning, which will be a pain. The swell drops to 5ft, but it’s still clean. It’s a marginal option, but nothing like the Saturday.

The middle of the second week, around the 15th and 16th, gets wild again. We’re seeing a massive 13ft to 16ft groundswell, but it’s arriving with strong onshore and cross-onshore winds. That’s just a massive, stormy mess. It’s the kind of day you watch from the cliffs.

Looking further out, there’s another promising period developing for Saturday, September 19th and Sunday, September 20th. The 19th morning looks clean with a light ESE cross-off breeze and a 4ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period. The energy is a moderate 788. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean. The 20th is a touch bigger, with a 6ft to 7ft SW swell building, and a longer period of 16 to 18 seconds. The wind is forecast to be a moderate N breeze at 16 mph, which is cross-off and clean. The combined energy on the 20th afternoon is a strong 2850. This is a long-range call, so it’s promising but not locked in yet. Still, it’s a date to circle on the calendar.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The clear standout is Saturday, September 12th at Cape Schanck. The second standout window looks like it could be the weekend of the 19th and 20th, but we’ll have to see how that shapes up.

Rusty.

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