Cape Schanck Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.50° S 144.89° E

Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 11 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Schanck sea temperature is
14.1° C
0.8° 

Cape Schanck surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Schanck surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 7,622 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Schanck this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Schanck in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 12s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Thu 16th Jul)5.5ft (1.7m) 14s
Best Surf10PM (Thu 16th Jul)6ft (1.8m) 14s
Most Powerful 1AM (Tue 14th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days.


Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Cape Schanck over the next couple of weeks.

First up, we’re in for a flat start. The first few days are a write-off – no surf to speak of, with a howling Northerly up to 31 mph just flattening everything out. It’s a grim wait. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

Things start to stir on Sunday the 12th, but don’t get excited. A 5 ft NW windswell shows up, but the period is a short, weak 5 seconds. The combined energy is a feeble 111, and it’s blown out by a 34 mph cross-shore. It’s a mess.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th see a massive spike in size – we’re talking 12 ft of SW groundswell with a very long 15-16 second period. The energy is cranking, hitting 9858 on the 14th. But here’s the kicker: every single one of those days is hammered by strong onshore or cross-shore winds. The wave comment says “strong cross-onshore and messy” and it’s just ugly. This is a beach-and-reef setup, and with that much power and that wind, it’s looking more like a day for the kite crew than a paddle surfer. For the average punter, it’s a no-go.

Now, the first real glimmer of hope comes on Wednesday the 15th. The swell drops to a more manageable 8 ft from the SW, still with a solid 14-second period (energy 2424). The wind drops to a 12 mph cross-shore. It’s still marginal, with a cross-chop, but it’s getting there. The afternoon cleans up a bit more with a lighter 9 mph breeze.

The standout moment, and the best on offer, is Thursday the 16th afternoon. The wind goes completely glassy – 0 mph from the SW. You’ve got a clean 6 ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period (energy 1316). That’s a proper window of clean, glassy surf on a reef break. This is the one to circle. It’s an advanced spot, and with that long period, expect it to line up nicely on the reef.

Friday the 17th is also excellent. Another 8 ft SW groundswell, this time with a very long 16-second period (energy 2995). The morning sees a light cross-off from the NNW, and the afternoon goes glassy again. For experienced surfers, this is a quality run. The bigger size and longer period mean it’s punchy, but the conditions are clean.

After that, things drop off again. Saturday the 18th has some smaller 4-5 ft swell, but the wind picks up. Then we get a run of poor conditions through the 19th to the 21st, with strong winds and onshore junk. The energy is low, and it’s not worth paddling out.

There’s a late glimpse of hope on Wednesday the 23rd of July. A solid 10 ft SW groundswell rolls in with a 16-second period (energy 5141), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the North. The forecast says “marginal,” but keep an eye on this one – it could be a big, clean day for the experienced crew if the wind holds. The 24th of July holds similar size but with a much stronger 31 mph wind, which will likely ruin it.

Bottom line: don’t bother until Thursday the 16th. That afternoon is your best bet for clean, glassy waves. Friday the 17th is also a ripper. The big days on the 23rd are a long-range gamble but could be worth a look.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NW on Sun morning, fresh winds from the WNW by Mon night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue afternoon, calm by Thu afternoon).

Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
1
3
4
4
4
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
SW
14
0.9
WSW
14
1.4
WNW
5
1.4
NW
5
3.5
WSW
12
3
SW
13
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
16
4
SW
16
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
15
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
14
2.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
2.3
SW
16
2.3
SW
16
1.8
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
0
0
91
111
0
3416
5231
5973
7622
5896
5699
3866
2424
1639
1307
1147
1238
1115
2736
2484
1382
Wind (km/h)
40
N
50
N
55
NW
55
NW
45
WNW
45
WNW
45
NW
45
NW
40
WNW
40
W
45
WSW
25
WSW
20
NW
15
NW
10
NW
15
NW
0
SW
15
N
10
NNW
5
ESE
10
N
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross
cross
cross
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
6:51PM1.49m
8:40AM1.53m
7:47PM1.45m
9:53AM1.56m
8:55PM1.43m
11:04AM1.61m
10:11PM1.43m
12:08PM1.67m
11:29PM1.47m
1:04PM1.73m
00:41AM1.52m
1:53PM1.78m
1:46AM1.57m
Low Tide
1:13PM0.75m
1:42AM0.13m
2:20PM0.83m
2:45AM0.10m
3:36PM0.85m
3:54AM0.08m
4:53PM0.82m
5:03AM0.05m
6:04PM0.74m
6:09AM0.04m
7:05PM0.61m
7:10AM0.05m
8:00PM0.47m
cloud
light rain
mod rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:33
7:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:16
5:17
5:19
 mm
4
9
1
2
4
1
4
1
2
Temp °C
13
13
10
11
13
13
14
14
13
12
13
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
12
13
13
Feels °C
4
3
-1
-1
4
3
5
4
4
3
3
5
8
10
11
10
14
12
9
11
11
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Schanck Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Schanck provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Schanck can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Schanck surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Schanck) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Schanck may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Schanck is 34 km (21 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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