Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it. The next couple of days are pretty much write-offs for Cape Schanck (Mornington Peninsula). We’ve got rain, lumpy cross-shore winds, and messy surf. The energy’s there — Thursday morning the combined swell energy is a moderate 1049 — but it’s all over the place. Don’t bother paddling out Tuesday through Thursday. Too much chop, poor lines, you’ll just be fighting it.

Then Friday the 7th starts to look interesting. The morning is still a bit crossed-up, but by the afternoon the wind swings to a light offshore NE at 3 mph, and that’s when things turn on. Swell’s 5 ft from the SW, 15-second period, and the combined energy jumps to a solid 1515. It’s clean, it’s got push, and it’s a proper reef setup. This is your first real window — goes for experienced surfers, but it’s the pick of the first week.

Saturday the 8th is a step back. Wind picks up from the north at 19 mph, cross-off, still some decent 5-6 ft SW swell at 16 seconds, energy around 1400-1477, but the wind’s just too strong to make it truly fun. Surfable, but you’ll be chasing the clean ones. Sunday the 9th, forget it — near gale winds, 34 mph, messy. That’s a kite day if anything.

Monday the 10th is poor again, onshore winds and lumpy. Tuesday the 11th, swell jumps to 8 ft but the wind’s a near gale cross-shore, so it’s just a washing machine. Then we hit the big one. Wednesday the 12th, we’ve got 12 ft of SW swell at 16 seconds and energy readings of 5449 to 5676 — that’s strong, powerful territory. But the wind’s howling cross-shore, messy as all hell. Not for paddling.

Here’s where it gets good for the brave. Thursday the 13th, swell peaks at 13 ft at 16 seconds, energy readings up to 11,716 — that’s very strong, machine-like energy. The wind drops to a moderate 12-16 mph, but it’s still cross-shore/cross-on. It’s big, it’s heavy, and it’s only for experts. Not a beginner’s wave, that’s for sure.

Then the standout of the whole run arrives on Friday the 14th. The swell backs off slightly to 10 ft, still from the SW at 16 seconds, and the wind goes light NNW at 6 mph, cross-off. The afternoon is clean — cleanest we’ve seen all week. Energy’s still pumping at 5235. This is the one. Cape Schanck’s a reef, and that long-period groundswell is perfect for it. Set your alarm.

Saturday the 15th is still solid at 8-10 ft, but the wind turns a bit more cross-shore, so it’s not as crisp. Sunday the 16th brings a small drop in size to 6-7 ft, and the morning’s clean with a cross-off, but energy is down to around 1187-1633. Monday the 17th is similar, a bit weaker, but the afternoon of Monday is worth a look — 5 ft, light north wind, cross-off, and the energy reads 1020. It’s a softer version of Friday, but still a worthy paddle.

After that, things taper off. Tuesday the 18th is small and weaker, energy down to 442-695. Wednesday the 19th, we get a bump back to 7 ft with a 15-second period, but the wind’s picking up to 22-25 mph cross-off — it’s clean-looking but the wind’s going to make it tricky. Still, there’s something to chase.

So, to sum it up: the best windows are Friday the 7th afternoon, and then Friday the 14th afternoon is the clear winner — big, clean, powerful. Thursday the 13th is for the hardcore only, and it’s iffy with the cross-onshore. Water temp’s 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so you’ll want the full wetsuit.

Keep an eye on the long-range stuff — that Friday the 14th call is promising but it’s still a week out, so treat it with a bit of caution. Now get out there when it’s clean.

Rusty.

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