Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way for Cape Schanck over the next couple of weeks. It’s a mixed bag, with a real standout session to get excited about early on, then a whole lot of wind and washouts to work through, but some hope way down the track if you’re patient.

We kick things off on Tuesday the 7th of July, but it’s nothing to write home about. There’s a 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period, so plenty of energy (combined energy of 1146), but the wind is a cross-shore from the SE at 6 mph, leaving it a bit average. The water’s sitting at 58°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – not a big deal, but nice to know.

The real standout comes Wednesday morning, the 8th of July. This is the one to circle. We’ve got a clean 5ft SW swell with a 19-second period, carrying serious power (combined energy of 2403) and a light offshore NE breeze at 6 mph. That offshore wind will set the reef up beautifully – glassy faces, proper lines. For an advanced spot like Cape Schanck, this is prime. The swell’s not too big, but with that long period, expect long, powerful rides. Paddling out should be manageable between sets. This is easily the best on offer.

Wednesday afternoon the 8th sees the swell bump up to 7ft (combined energy 2954), but the wind swings cross-shore from the SE at 6 mph, making conditions a bit messy. Still good wave height, but not as clean as the morning.

Thursday the 9th has a similar story. Morning brings a 5ft SW swell with a cross-offshore NNE breeze at 6 mph – clean enough, decent. The afternoon turns glassy with an easterly at 3 mph (combined energy 936), and the 4ft SW swell will be small but super smooth. Nice for a relaxing session.

From Friday the 10th onwards, things get tricky. We’ve got moderate cross-offshore winds and 5-5ft SW swell, but the wind picks up to 9 mph and the energy drops a bit. Not terrible, but nothing special.

Then from Saturday the 11th into the next week, it’s a write-off. Saturday sees near-gale northerly winds of 31 mph, and Sunday brings more gale-force cross-shore winds with tiny 2ft windswell (combined energy 17). The swell direction shifts NW with a period of just 4 seconds – that’s rubbish. Monday the 13th through Tuesday the 14th has solid 10-12ft SW groundswell (combined energy over 6000), but the wind is howling from the WSW at 19-28 mph, putting a huge cross-onshore chop on it. This is expert-only territory at best, and even then, it’s not worth it. If you’re into kite surfing, the setup might be more interesting than paddling.

Wednesday the 15th sees the swell ease to 8-10ft, but wind remains messy. There’s a glimmer on Thursday the 16th morning with a 8ft SW swell (16-second period, combined energy 3268) and a light cross-offshore northerly at 9 mph – that could be clean and powerful for experienced surfers. It’s the second-best window in the whole forecast. Thursday afternoon keeps the 7ft SW swell with lighter offshore winds, solid too.

Friday the 17th holds some promise with a 5ft SW swell and a 19-second period in the morning, but moderate northerly winds at 16 mph. The afternoon is again 7ft but gets a messy cross-shore chop.

From Saturday the 18th onward, it’s back to strong winds and poor conditions, with the occasional clean but small pulse. The weekend of the 19th has onshore gales and 7-7ft slop. By Monday the 20th, the swell drops to 5ft but winds are near-gale cross-offshore – too much wind for good paddle surfing.

The long-range looks pretty grim. The last week has consistent onshore winds and limited clean windows. The best bet is still that Wednesday morning, the 8th of July.

So wrap it up: Wednesday the 8th of July, early morning, Cape Schanck reef. 5ft SW groundswell at 19 seconds, light NE offshore, clean. That’s your winner. Get on it.

Rusty.

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