Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Cape Schanck. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming, but the wind’s going to be the main player over the next week or so. A bit of patience is needed, but there are definitely a couple of windows to get excited about.

The pattern opens with a bit of a wait. The first real chance to get wet is Thursday afternoon, August 27th. It’s not huge, but a clean 4ft SW groundswell with a nice 13-second period and a light northerly cross-off breeze will have Cape Schanck looking tidy. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year—nice little bonus. The combined energy is moderate at 450, but the quality is what counts here. It’s not a standout, just a decent warm-up.

Now, Friday the 28th through Sunday the 30th is a write-off. The swell jumps up, but it’s clogged with onshore and cross-onshore winds from the SW and WNW. The waves will be choppy and messy. Don’t bother.

The first true standout of the outlook lands on Monday, August 31st. This is the one to circle. We’ve got a meaty 7ft SW groundswell (14-second period) for the morning, and the wind swings around to a light NNW cross-off—clean as a whistle. The afternoon gets even better: glassy conditions with a 6ft SW swell, and the combined energy is pumping at 2026. This is for experienced surfers only, though—over 5ft and pushing towards 7ft, it’s got some punch. The sets will be well-spaced with that long period, making it easier to get out the back. Expect a few others in the water, as crowds can be an issue here.

Tuesday, September 1st is a frustrating one. The swell is still solid at 6ft to 5ft SW with long 15-16 second periods, and the wind is cross-off from the north. But it’s howling at 28 mph. The waves will look clean but it’ll be a battle against the breeze. Not recommended for a relaxing session.

We then hit a long, poor stretch from Wednesday, September 2nd right through to Tuesday, September 8th. Strong cross-onshore winds, onshores, and lumpy conditions ruin nearly every day. The swell sizes stay between 6ft and 10ft SW, with combined energy values reaching 5770 at one point—very strong—but without clean wind, it’s just a washing machine. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, it would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during this period. There’s a glimmer on September 3rd with a clean cross-off wind, but it’s blowing 22 mph, so still too messy for a good time.

Finally, the second standout of the outlook arrives on Thursday, September 10th. This is a beauty for experienced crew. Morning session: clear skies, light NNW cross-off wind at 6 mph, and a solid 8ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is a strong 3227. The waves will have serious power and shape, but it’s a big one—over 8ft, so experts only. That long period also means it’s best at this reef setup, not a beach break. Crowds are possible, so get in early.

Friday, September 11th rounds it out with a smaller, clean 6ft SW swell and a gentle cross-off breeze. It’s not a standout, but a solid option for a fun end to the run.

So, for the best on offer: lock in Monday, August 31st for the glassy afternoon conditions and solid swell, and Thursday, September 10th for the big, clean groundswell. Both are for experienced surfers only.

Rusty.

Read more