
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Schanck surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 7,411 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Schanck this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Schanck in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 15s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Mon 13th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days.
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve had a proper squiz at the charts for Cape Schanck, and I’ll be straight with ya – it’s a rough start and a long wait for anything worth paddling out for. The first solid week is pretty much a write-off thanks to howling winds and junky conditions, but there’s a glimmer of hope later on if you’re patient and you’ve got the skill to handle a reef break.
We kick off on Saturday the 11th of July with a northerly gale ripping through. The combined wave energy is a measly 0 (zero), so there’s nothing doing. Total flat spell. This crap continues all the way through Sunday and Monday the 13th of July. Even though the swell height climbs to 12 ft with a very long 15 to 16 second period from the SW, the wind is a solid cross-shore at 28 mph, making everything a mess. The combined energy jumps to a massive 5941, but without good wind, it's just a washing machine. Nothing for a surfer here.
We finally see a break in the clouds on Wednesday the 15th of July. The swell drops to 8 ft from the SW (period 14 seconds), and while the energy is still strong at 2474, the morning wind is NW at 16 mph, creating a cross-chop. It’s marginal, and the score reflects that. The afternoon improves a tad with lighter WNW winds, but it’s still marginal.
Now, here’s where it gets a bit more interesting. Thursday the 16th of July is the first real standout in this grim period. The morning sees a drop to 6 ft SW swell (14 seconds), but the wind swings NNW at 12 mph, going cross-offshore. That means clean lines, folks. The combined energy is 1344, and the conditions are described as clean. The afternoon is even better – the wind drops to a light 6 mph NNW, still cross-off, with the same 6 ft swell. The report says “expect very good surf conditions,” so that Thursday arvo session is your best bet in this whole outlook.
Friday the 17th of July carries on the good form. The swell bumps up a touch to 7 ft from the SW, with a very long 16-second period giving it heaps of push (combined energy 2588). The morning has a moderate 12 mph NNW cross-off, but the afternoon is a gem: light 6 mph NNW winds, clean faces, and the report calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the pick of the fortnight for sure – a proper groundswell with clean offshore wind on a reef at Cape Schanck. It’s an advanced break, so don’t take it lightly, and it can get crowded here sometimes.
After that, the window slams shut again. Saturday the 18th of July drops off quickly, with the swell falling to 5 ft and the wind picking up to 22 mph from the north on the weekend, killing the quality. Sunday the 19th is even worse – tiny 2 ft swell with a near gale. Then we get a messy cross-onshore period from Monday the 20th through to early the next week.
There is another pulse showing around Wednesday the 22nd of July, with a clean 8 ft SW swell (12 seconds) and a moderate NNW cross-off in the morning. Combined energy is 1664, but the afternoon goes cross-shore again. It’s a backup option at best. Thursday the 23rd of July has a bigger 8 ft SW swell (16 seconds, 4214 energy) and clean morning wind, but then the wind swings onshore and it all falls apart. The forecast gets very uncertain after that, with mostly onshore winds and messy conditions right through to the end of the outlook on Sunday the 26th of July.
The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild to report.
So to wrap it up: the first week is a total loss. Your window is Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th of July. That Friday afternoon is the absolute standout – solid 7 ft groundswell with light offshore winds. If you can hold out and you’ve got the skills for a reef break, that’s your call. Otherwise, it’s a pretty bleak 16 days for Cape Schanck.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the N on Fri night, near gales from the NW by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue morning, light winds from the NNW by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Fri 17 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WNW 4 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | NW 5 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 0 | 395 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 5115 | 5583 | 7344 | 6324 | 5774 | 3746 | 2474 | 1837 | 1536 | 1344 | 1325 | 1186 | 2384 | 2314 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:32AM1.51m | 6:51PM1.49m | 8:40AM1.53m | 7:47PM1.45m | 9:53AM1.56m | 8:55PM1.43m | 11:04AM1.61m | 10:11PM1.43m | 12:08PM1.67m | 11:29PM1.47m | 1:04PM1.73m | 00:41AM1.52m | 1:53PM1.78m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 00:47AM0.18m | 1:13PM0.75m | 1:42AM0.13m | 2:20PM0.83m | 2:45AM0.10m | 3:36PM0.85m | 3:54AM0.08m | 4:53PM0.82m | 5:03AM0.05m | 6:04PM0.74m | 6:09AM0.04m | 7:05PM0.61m | 7:10AM0.05m | ||||||||
— | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | |
— | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | |
mm | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | — | — | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
701 | 476 | 395 | 512 | — | — | 3598 | 5115 | 5583 | 7344 | 6324 | 217 | 3746 | 2474 | 1837 | 1536 | 1344 | 1325 | 1186 | 2384 | 2314 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | — | S 14 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | SSW 14 | — | WSW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 15 | SSW 16 |
35 | — | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | 203 | — | — | — | — | — | 61 | 71 | — | 38 | 442 | 204 | 215 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 18 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 102 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | NNW 4 | N 4 | WNW 4 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | — | NW 3 | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | — |
5 | 13 | 36 | 32 | 2599 | 3518 | 42 | 80 | 80 | 8772 | 4414 | 5774 | 4255 | — | 3 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 49 | 182 | 182 | 478 | 713 | 78 | 280 | 683 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Schanck Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Schanck provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Schanck can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Schanck surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Schanck) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Schanck may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Schanck is 34 km (21 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











