Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, checking in from the coast.

Alright, let’s be straight up: Cape Schanck is our only show in town, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag over the next 16 days. We’ve got a solid run of swell, but the wind and conditions are going to make you work for it. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is within a degree of the long-term average for this time of year – nothing wild there, just your standard winter chill.

The first week has a few flirts with decent surf, but plenty of duds. Saturday the 1st kicks off with a 6ft SW swell at 17 seconds – that’s long-period groundswell packing moderate energy (2005). The wind is a cross-off from the north at 12 mph, keeping things clean. It’s a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely, but it’s for the advanced crew. Crowds are often here, so expect company. Sunday the 2nd has size but gets hammered by strong northerly winds at 25 mph, making it a write-off. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are a total loss with onshore winds and rain. Wednesday the 5th through to Thursday the 6th is a slow fade with small swell and onshore conditions.

Now, the real standout is Friday the 7th afternoon. The wind drops to absolutely glassy – calm, zero breeze – and you’ve got a 5ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period, delivering strong energy (1824). The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers, and that’s your best window. The reef will handle that long period beautifully, offering clean, lined-up waves. It’s a cracker.

Saturday the 8th has a bit of size early but fresh winds at 19 mph keep it marginal, and it drops right off by the afternoon. Sunday the 9th through Monday the 10th morning is messy with lumpy cross-shore wind. But Monday the 10th afternoon brings a 7ft SW swell at 18 seconds – very long period – and moderate cross-off wind, giving you clean conditions and very strong energy (2834). That’s a solid option for advanced surfers.

Tuesday the 11th keeps the size with 7 to 8ft SW swell, but fresh winds and rain creep in, making it a bit of a gamble. Wednesday the 12th has a flat patch in the morning, then a 7ft swell pops up in the afternoon with strong energy (2205), but it’s only rated marginal. Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th morning see a big jump – 10 to 12ft SW swell, very strong energy (up to 6597), but that’s only for experts. The wind on Thursday is cross-shore and lumpy, but Friday morning has a clean cross-off. Friday afternoon turns ugly with near gale cross-onshore winds at 31 mph, so skip that.

The second week is a bit of a wildcard. Saturday the 15th has onshore wind and lumpy waves, and Sunday the 16th is an absolute no-go with near gale force winds at 37 mph and a risk of thunderstorms. That 12ft swell is enormous, but the conditions are blown out.

So, to sum it up: your best bet is Friday the 7th afternoon for that glassy, clean, powerful groundswell. If you’re keen on a bigger challenge, Monday the 10th afternoon and Friday the 14th morning are worth a look, but keep an eye on the wind. This is a reef break for advanced surfers, so don’t take it lightly.

Rusty.

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