Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve got a proper 16-day run to talk through, coming at us from Cape Schanck. It’s a reef break, known to handle a bigger SW groundswell, and we’ve got a heap of that on the way. The water’s sitting at a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, about 57°, so it’s a bit of comfort for the long sessions ahead.

Right now, we’re staring down a solid pulse of SW swell that kicks off Wednesday the 16th. We’re looking at a 9.8ft SW swell with a very long period of 15 seconds. That’s a lot of energy – the combined swell energy is belting in at 5708 (moderate to strong), so you can feel the grunt. But the wind’s a problem early on; it’s a cross-on SSW breeze at 15.5 mph, making it choppy and poor. This one’s for the advanced crew only at this size – over 8.2ft, so beginners, sit this out.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th clean up a little with onshore and cross-shore winds, but the surf quality is still marginal. The swell stays solid, around 6.6ft to 6.9ft with 14-second intervals, but it’s messy with moderate to fresh breezes. The combined energy is still hefty (1889 to 1810), but it’s not the clean, groomed face you want.

The weekend – Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th – we see a bit more size, 7.2ft to 7.5ft from the SW, but the wind is swinging around. Saturday’s got a cross-shore NW breeze at 18.6 mph, lumping it up. Sunday, a strong N/ NNW cross-offshore at 24.9 mph keeps it clean for the most part, but the swell drops to 5.2-5.9ft and the energy dips to 933 (weak). Still, the quality is poor, so it’s more of a skip.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd are where the spark returns. Monday morning’s got a 7.2ft SW swell at 12 seconds, but the onshore SSW wind at 15.5 mph is messing it up. The afternoon sees the same swell jump to 7.9ft with a 16-second period, and a combined energy of 2768 (moderate), but again, poor conditions with that wind. Tuesday is the real standout of the week: the morning delivers clean cross-offshore ESE winds at just 9.3 mph, on a 7.9ft SW swell with a 15-second period. The combined energy is strong at 2924 (moderate to strong). The waves are clean and powerful, perfect for the advanced crew. This reef loves a long-period groundswell like this – it’ll hold its shape, not break too straight. This is your best pick in the first week.

Wednesday the 23rd holds a bit of leftover energy, 6.6ft SW with 15 seconds, and clean cross-offshore winds from the N/NNE at 12.4-18.6 mph. It’s marginal but rideable, with combined energy around 1718 (moderate). Not the top call, but a runner-up.

We hit a flat patch from Thursday the 24th through to Saturday the 26th. The swell drops to 3ft to 4.3ft, and while the winds are light and clean at times (Friday morning, SE 6.2 mph), the combined energy is weak – 326 to 521 (weak). The surf is poor to marginal, nothing worth paddling out for.

Sunday the 27th, we see a resurgence. A 5.9ft SW swell with a 17-second period rolls in, with clean cross-offshore ENE winds at just 6.2 mph. The combined energy hits 2082 (moderate), and the forecast calls for excellent conditions for experienced surfers. This is the second standout of the run – a solid, clean groundswell with a gentle breeze. The long period means it’ll be a point-break-style ride at the reef, with long, smooth walls.

Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th are smaller, 3.6ft to 4.3ft SW, with glassy to clean conditions. Monday morning is glassy – dead calm, no wind – which is a major positive for a clean, smooth surface. The combined energy is light (739 to 478), so it’s small but fun for a cruiser session.

Wednesday the 30th sees a bump in swell size, up to 7.9ft by the afternoon with a short, 9-second period. The combined energy is 938 (weak), but the morning has offshore ENE winds at 9.3 mph, delivering

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