
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Schanck surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 2,562 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Schanck this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Schanck in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 13s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 18) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into it.
Alright, cobber, we've got a bit of a mixed bag coming our way over the next couple of weeks. The main focus is on Cape Schanck, a reef setup that's going to see some serious pulse of south-west groundswell, but the wind is going to be the real deal-breaker for most of it.
The action starts on Thursday the 16th but it's a bit marginal – 8ft of SW swell with a 15 second period. That's a long-period groundswell, so it'll have heaps of energy (2416) and those long waits between sets, but with the wind blowing onshore it's going to be a messy affair. Not worth getting too excited about.
Friday the 17th is your best bet early on. We've got a solid 7ft of SW swell (16 seconds) and the wind swings around to a light NNW breeze, giving us a clean cross-off. The water temp is about average for this time of year. This is the one to circle. For experienced surfers, this is going to be excellent – clean, powerful lines rolling in. The combined energy is massive at 2275.
Saturday the 18th sees the swell drop a touch to 5-6ft. The morning has some cross-shore bump, but the afternoon glass-off with a light NNE breeze should clean it right up with a smaller 5ft swell (880 energy). A good session for the more chilled surfer.
Then we hit a nasty spot. From Sunday the 19th right through to Thursday the 23rd, the surf pretty much dies. We're talking tiny, poor conditions with energy readings in the single digits or low hundreds. There’s a small window on Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st with some weak 3-3ft swell, but the wind is up and the quality is rubbish. Basically, a blank run of nearly a week.
Things get interesting again towards the end of the month, but with a big health warning. Friday the 24th kicks off another solid 8ft SW swell (14 seconds, 2116 energy) but we get hammered by a howling 28 mph cross-shore wind. Then it switches onshore and stays lumpy and dangerous through to Sunday the 26th. The swell is big (over 7ft) but the wind is absolutely trashing it. This is expert territory and only if you're desperate, or maybe better for the kite crew if you're into that.
Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th are more promising. The swell holds at a solid 7-7ft (SW, 12-13 seconds) and the wind goes cross-off from the NNW. It's a strong breeze (16-25 mph), so it'll be a bumpy ride, but it will be clean. The energy is still strong (around 1400). This is for experienced surfers only because the size is up there.
The real standout for the back half of the forecast is Wednesday the 29th. The swell drops to a more manageable 5ft from the SW (11 seconds), the energy drops to a moderate 619, and we get a gentle offshore breeze from the NE. That's clean, glassy conditions on a dropping swell. This is going to be a great day for intermediate surfers and a fun session for everyone.
After that, it turns to rubbish again with strong onshore winds and rain on Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st.
So, in short: Friday the 17th is your top pick for a powerful, clean session for the advanced crew. Wednesday the 29th is the best all-rounder for a clean, fun surf on smaller waves. Stay away from the 24th-26th unless you're an expert with a death wish or a kite in your hand.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed night, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wed 22 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 20 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SSW 15 | SW 13 | S 9 | NW 2 | E 10 | E 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2125 | 2416 | 2372 | 1915 | 2035 | 2241 | 1563 | 1154 | 880 | 0 | 16 | 278 | 252 | 25 | 269 | 21 | 261 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 11:29PM1.47m | 1:04PM1.73m | 00:41AM1.52m | 1:53PM1.78m | 1:46AM1.57m | 2:37PM1.80m | 2:45AM1.60m | 3:18PM1.79m | 3:39AM1.61m | 3:56PM1.76m | 4:30AM1.59m | 4:32PM1.70m | 5:18AM1.54m | 5:07PM1.62m | |||||||
Low Tide | 6:09AM0.04m | 7:05PM0.61m | 7:10AM0.05m | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:05AM0.10m | 8:49PM0.35m | 8:55AM0.18m | 9:35PM0.26m | 9:41AM0.28m | 10:18PM0.20m | 10:25AM0.40m | 10:59PM0.19m | 11:07AM0.52m | ||||||||
— | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | |
— | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
2125 | 2416 | 2372 | 1915 | 2035 | 2241 | 1563 | 1154 | 880 | 563 | 358 | 278 | 169 | 587 | 269 | 367 | 261 | 617 | 546 | 336 | 330 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | — | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | WSW 12 | SSW 15 | SE 10 | S 9 | — | E 10 | E 10 |
— | — | — | — | 240 | 140 | 68 | 40 | — | — | 16 | 60 | 252 | 19 | 90 | 21 | 4 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | WSW 20 | SSW 10 | SSW 16 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 10 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39 | 75 | 20 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 3 | NW 3 | — | NW 2 | — | NW 2 | NW 3 | NW 3 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 1 | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 13 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Schanck Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Schanck provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Schanck can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Schanck surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Schanck) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Schanck may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Schanck is 34 km (21 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











