Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Cape Schanck over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough run. The finder is giving us almost nothing to work with for the entire 16-day window. The first real chance to even think about a paddle is on Sunday the 19th, but after that, we hit a massive gap of poor conditions until the very end of the month.

Sunday the 19th is the only time in the first week that looks any good. We’ve got a clean 3 ft south-west swell rolling in from the deep, with a 12-second period. That’s a nice groundswell for this reef, and the wind is a light north-northwest breeze, sitting cross-offshore. The water temp is sitting right around 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is moderate (296). It’s not a big day, but it’s the standout. The swell direction is a good match for the optimum south-east direction for this spot. Just keep in mind that Cape Schanck is a reef break that’s advanced only, and it can get crowded often. This is the one to aim for.

Then it all goes quiet. From Monday the 20th right through to Saturday the 26th, it’s a write-off. The wind is up, the swell is either too small or blown to pieces, and the scores are zero. You’d be wasting your time.

Sunday the 26th sees a drop in the madness. The swell is 6 ft from the south-west, but it’s onshore with a gentle breeze, and the energy is in the moderate range (997). The forecast says it’s marginal, not awful, but it’s still onshore. Not the clean conditions we want.

Monday the 27th is another one to watch. The swell drops to 4 ft, but the wind finally swings around to a light north, cross-offshore. The water is clean. The period is 11 seconds, so it’s still a decent wave. The energy is moderate (344). It’s surfable, but very ordinary. If you’re desperate, you might get a few.

After that, the wind comes back with a vengeance. From Tuesday the 28th onwards, we’re looking at strong to near-gale force winds, with big, messy swell. The energy spikes into the thousands (strong to very strong), but it’s all cross-on or onshore and blown out. There’s a big 12 ft south-west swell on Thursday the 23rd, but with 31 mph winds, that’s a washing machine, not a surf session. For the experts, that’s a kite session, not a paddle.

The one bright spot is the very end of the run. Sunday the 3rd of August has a 5 ft south-west swell with a long 16-second period, and the wind is only a moderate 16 mph cross-onshore. The energy is strong (1200). It’s still cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a bit choppy, but the long period means there’ll be some power in the water. If you’re an advanced surfer and the wind plays ball, that might be the best of a bad bunch in the second week. But it’s not a guarantee.

Overall, this is a tough forecast for the Cape. The only real standout is Sunday the 19th. The rest is a long stretch of poor conditions, with a few marginal days scattered in the second week. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d set your alarm for the 19th and then take a break.

Rusty.

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