Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, looking over the next couple of weeks at Cape Schanck. This is a classic reef setup that needs a specific window to come alive, and let me tell you, the forecast is a real mixed bag. We’ve got a solid run of incoming swell, but the wind is going to be the main character for a while, making things ugly before it finally turns sweet.

The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is right around normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

For the first few days, it’s a write-off. Thursday the 6th has a weak 3ft SW swell with a 12-second period, but the wind is howling from the NW at 16 mph, creating a messy cross-shore chop. The wave energy is a weak (513). Friday the 7th morning is still a bit of a bust with a cross-on breeze, but hold on for Friday afternoon. The wind swings to the ENE at 6 mph, going offshore, and you’ve got a clean 5ft SW swell with a long 15-second period. The energy jumps to a solid (1631) and it’s looking excellent for experienced surfers. That’s the first real standout.

Then we hit a wall of wind. Saturday the 8th through to Monday the 10th has strong northerly and westerly winds over 22 mph, butchering the surf. The swell does pulse up to 8ft on Monday afternoon with a huge energy reading of (7597), but it’s blown out and lumpy. Not worth a paddle.

Tuesday the 11th still has messy winds, but the cleanest moment is Tuesday morning with a 6ft SW swell and a 14-second period, though the wind is a bit strong. The end of the first week sees a massive spike on Thursday the 13th – a 21ft SW swell with a 17-second period and energy of (23738). The wind is onshore, but the report says it’s actually too big for this break. That’s a big, powerful, dangerous groundswell that’s best left to the experts.

The second week starts to look more promising. Sunday the 16th has a clean 6ft SW swell with a 14-second period, and the wind is a cross-off from the ESE at 19 mph, keeping things tidy. The best of the bunch is looking like Monday the 17th afternoon. The wind drops to absolutely glassy – a NNE breeze at just 3 mph – and you’ve got a 5ft SW swell with a 13-second period. The energy is a moderate (672), and the forecast is calling for very good surf. That’s a beautiful, clean window for a reef like this.

Wednesday the 19th afternoon is also a cracker, with a 6ft SW swell, a 15-second period, and a light offshore breeze, scoring well for experienced surfers. The energy is a solid (1541). The crowd factor here is ‘often’ busy, so you’ll want to get out early or on a weekday to have it to yourself.

Overall, keep your eyes on Friday the 7th afternoon for the first clean session, and then mark Monday the 17th afternoon as the real standout – glassy, clean, and a perfect size for a reef. The long-period swells here are right in the sweet spot for this reef, so the shape should be excellent.

Rusty

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