Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s look at what Cape Schanck is throwin’ at us for the next couple of weeks. I’ll be honest, it’s a rough kick-off. We got a big pulse of energy, but the wind is wreckin’ it. Friday, July 3rd, is a total loss: a huge 15-foot SW groundswell with a 16-second period, but that 28 mph WSW cross-on wind is gonna make it an ugly mess. Combined wave energy is a massive 9284 (strong). You’d be nuts to paddle out. Water temp is 59°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The whole weekend is pretty much a dud. Saturday and Sunday see some solid 8 to 10-foot SW swell, but the wind is either on it or cross-off at a stiff 16-22 mph. A few of those Sunday windows (5th) with ESE cross-off wind will clean it up a bit, but it’s still touchy. Monday, July 6th, is where things start to get interesting. The swell drops to a much more manageable 5 feet from the SW, but the magic is that north wind swinging light and cross-off. That morning, with glassy conditions developing, the wave energy is a moderate 1019, and the water is clean. That’s a decent session for the more experienced crew.

Tuesday, July 7th morning is absolutely glassy – WNW wind at 3 mph and a clean 3-foot SW groundswell with a 17-second period. That’s a long, drawn-out groundswell, perfect for the reef, though it might be a bit fat at low tide. Energy’s down to 741 (weak), so it’s not a powerhouse, but for a quiet, clean paddle, that’s your pick of the early week.

Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday, July 8th morning. This is the one to circle. We got a 5-foot SW swell, 18-second period (very long-period groundswell), and the wind is light and offshore from the NE at 6 mph. That is a recipe for perfection at this reef break. The wave energy is a solid 2472 (moderate), and the forecast is callin’ it excellent for experienced surfers. Crowds can be often here, but on a Wednesday with that quality, expect some company. This is the best on offer.

Things settle down after that. Thursday the 9th through Saturday the 11th sees smaller 3 to 5-foot SW swell with light cross-off winds, clean conditions, but nothin’ to write home about. You’ll get a wave, but it’s not a standout. Energy drops into the weak to moderate range (414 to 1176).

Then we hit a big gap. From Saturday afternoon on the 11th, it starts to fade. Sunday the 12th is rainy and windy, with a weird 2-foot swell that’s got a 21-second period (very low energy, 344), and then a bigger 6-foot pulse shows up in the afternoon but with 28 mph N wind. Don’t bother.

From Monday, July 13th, we get absolutely smashed. A massive 16-foot SW swell hits with a 12-second period and onshore SW winds at 22-25 mph. That’s a serious no-go zone. Wave energy is off the charts at 7736 (strong). Tuesday the 14th is similar, with 8-foot swell and near gale-force winds. The whole middle of the second week is a write-off for surfing. The break is a reef, so it’s not a kite spot, but honestly, the wind and size would be more fun for a kite than a paddle.

The last few days (Thursday 16th to Saturday 18th) show a slow easing trend, with swell dropping back to 4 to 6 feet, but the wind stays persistently cross-on from the S/SSW. It will be lumpy and choppy, not worth the drive. The last hopeful window is Friday morning the 17th and Saturday morning the 18th, where the wind drops to light, but it’s still onshore or cross-on. Those are marginal, best for the diehards. So, to sum it up: Wednesday, July 8th is your gold. Tuesday the 7th morning is a close second for glassiness. Don’t even think about the first weekend or that second week blowout.

Rusty.

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