
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Schanck surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 30 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 7,146 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 30 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Schanck this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 13s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Schanck in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 14s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's chew the fat about what's cooking at Cape Schanck for the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the start of this run is a total bust. We're looking at a solid *four days* of absolutely no-go conditions from Thursday the 23rd right through Sunday the 26th. The wind is howling out of the west and southwest, smashing across the face of the swell. Sure, there's plenty of energy in the water – the combined swell energy is reading between 3,812 and 12,287 (very strong) – but it's all cross-onshore and lumpy, with a score of zero. That's a hard pass, my friends.
We start to see a little hope on Sunday the 26th afternoon. The wind drops back to a gentle breeze, but it's still a cross-shore, and the swell is a modest 6ft from the southwest. The wave state is labelled as marginal, with a combined energy of 730 (moderate). It's not great, but it's the first sign of something rideable after a long, messy gap.
Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th bring a change. The wind swings around to the north-northwest, giving us a clean, cross-offshore breeze. The swell drops to 5ft, which is a manageable size, but the wave comment still says "poor surf conditions" and the scores are zero. That's the frustrating part – the wind is perfect, but the swell energy is low (655 to 678) and the period is only 10 to 12 seconds, so it's not packing much punch. Looks better than it rides.
Then we get another nasty spike on Wednesday the 29th. A near-gale from the south-southwest slams in with a massive 16ft swell and an insane combined energy of 13,565 (very strong). That's a pure, dangerous, blown-out mess. Keep your feet dry.
The outlook improves a bit in the second week. Sunday the 2nd of August looks promising. We get a light offshore breeze from the southwest, with a 7ft swell from the same direction, and a period of 17 seconds – that's *very long period* groundswell, meaning proper energy and shape. The combined energy sits at 2,414 (strong). The wave comment is still marginal, but it scores a 2, which is the best we've seen so far. The caveat is that this long-period swell is going to be a bit straight at a beach break, so look for the points or reefs.
The standout, by a long stretch, is Thursday the 6th of August. The morning is the pick of the entire forecast. The wind is a light breeze from the north-northeast, giving us a clean, cross-offshore flow. The swell is a solid 6ft from the southwest, with a period of 15 seconds (very long period groundswell). The combined energy is 2,365 (strong). The wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers" and it scores a 4 – the highest of the whole run. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year.
The afternoon of Thursday the 6th gets a bit trickier as the wind swings to the south-southwest, turning it cross-onshore, and the swell jumps up to 8ft, which is getting into the expert-only zone.
The very end of the forecast on Friday the 7th of August has a nice note. The afternoon brings a moderate offshore breeze from the east-northeast, with a 5ft southwest swell and a combined energy of 1,036 (moderate). The wave comment says "expect very good surf conditions" with a score of 3. That's a solid, clean, and fun-sized wave to finish the window.
So, to wrap it up: the first week is a complete write-off of dirty wind and blown-out swell. The second week offers a couple of windows, but the clear winner is Thursday the 6th of August for a morning session. That's the one you want to keep an eye on.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Thu afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Thu night, moderate winds from the WNW by Sat night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
3569 | 4215 | 7146 | 5813 | 3866 | 3292 | 2871 | 1891 | 1280 | 1008 | 844 | 685 | 582 | 677 | 917 | 897 | 1719 | 5093 | 3468 | 2271 | 1286 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:40PM1.53m | 6:52AM1.43m | 6:13PM1.44m | 7:43AM1.37m | 6:49PM1.36m | 8:42AM1.33m | 7:32PM1.29m | 9:50AM1.32m | 8:29PM1.23m | 11:00AM1.35m | 9:41PM1.19m | 12:00PM1.41m | 10:59PM1.20m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:47AM0.64m | 00:17AM0.26m | 12:29PM0.74m | 00:58AM0.32m | 1:15PM0.83m | 1:43AM0.37m | 2:12PM0.91m | 2:35AM0.41m | 3:25PM0.95m | 3:37AM0.43m | 4:49PM0.94m | 4:41AM0.42m | 6:00PM0.88m | ||||||||
7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | |
— | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | |
mm | 2 | 1 | 3 | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 15 | SSW 18 | SSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
87 | 31 | 390 | 5813 | 3866 | 3292 | 2407 | 1891 | 1280 | 1008 | 844 | 685 | 582 | 677 | 917 | 897 | 1719 | — | 3468 | 2271 | 1286 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | SW 17 | SW 15 | — | — | SSW 17 | SW 16 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 12 | 77 | — | — | 100 | 763 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | WNW 4 | NW 4 | — | WNW 4 | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | — |
3569 | 4215 | 7146 | 3778 | 4720 | 2159 | 2871 | 1229 | 1474 | 10 | 5 | — | 9 | — | 6 | 40 | 47 | 5093 | 2328 | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 52 | 52 | 52 | 49 | 78 | 56 | 49 | 52 | 17 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 41 | 478 | 80 | 146 | 267 | 267 | 512 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Mornington Peninsula | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Schanck Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Schanck provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Schanck can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Schanck surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Schanck) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Schanck may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Schanck is 34 km (21 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










