Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Cape Schanck has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, things are rough. The first week is a write-off for decent waves. We’re looking at strong, onshore winds and messy conditions through to the end of Thursday the 17th. The swell is there, but it’s big, raw, and blown out. A 12ft SW swell on Tuesday afternoon with a 31 mph onshore wind is just a washing machine. Not worth paddling out. The water is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, for what that’s worth.

We get a slight glimmer on Friday the 18th morning. The swell drops to 6ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the wind finally turns cross-offshore from the NW. It’s clean, but the energy is still moderate (1929) and the forecast is only marginal. Still, it’s the first session that won’t leave you hating life. That afternoon and Saturday look messy again.

Then we hit a real gap. From Sunday the 20th through to Monday the 21st, it’s small, onshore, and poor. Tuesday the 22nd morning is where it gets interesting. A solid 10ft SW groundswell rolls in, with a very long 16-second period and clean, cross-offshore east winds. The combined energy is strong at 5335. This is the standout of the whole outlook, but here’s the caveat: that long-period swell tends to close out and break too straight on a beach, but Cape Schanck is a reef, and that’s exactly where a long-period SW groundswell shines. It’s an advanced spot that breaks consistently, but crowds are possible, so get your timing right. That morning is the one to circle on the calendar.

After that, the swell fades fast. Wednesday the 23rd afternoon has tiny 4ft swell with glassy conditions and light north winds, but there’s hardly any energy (659). Thursday and Friday are clean but tiny, with strong offshore winds and barely a ripple.

Looking further out into the second week, there’s another pulse on Saturday the 26th – a 8ft SW swell with an insanely long 19-second period – but it’s hammered by onshore winds. The energy is huge (5102) but it’s just a mess. Sunday and Monday are the same story: size and power, but cross-onshore winds and lumpy conditions. Not surfable.

The last real chance comes on Tuesday the 30th morning. A 6ft SW swell with a 14-second period and clean, cross-offshore east winds. The energy is moderate (1624) and the score is decent. It’s a marginal call but the best-looking option in that final stretch.

All in all, Cape Schanck is a tough beat for most of this 16-day window. The clear standout is Tuesday the 22nd morning – big, clean, and hitting the reef just right. Everything else is either blown out, too small, or just average.

Rusty.

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