Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, giving you the run-down on what’s cookin’ at Cape Schanck. It’s a reef break that’s consistent, made for experienced surfers, and it loves a southeast to southwest swell. The water’s about 57°F, pretty much normal for this time of year. The main plot here is a rough start, then a window that could be the best of the month.

Right now, Monday the 7th is a no-go. There’s a 6ft southwest swell, but the wind is howling out of the SSW at 19 mph, hitting it cross-onshore. It’s lumpy and poor – combined energy is only 582, nothing pushing through clean.

Tuesday the 8th is teasing us. The swell drops to 4ft in the morning, but that 18-second period is proper groundswell, and the energy jumps to 1684. The wind swings west at 12 mph, still cross-onshore, so it’s choppy. The afternoon goes onshore from the southwest at 9 mph. It’s marginal – worth a look, but the tide ain’t helping.

Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are for the bold. We’ve got 12ft southwest swells with periods around 16–18 seconds, so there’s serious energy – 7384 on Wednesday morning, peaking at 9207 that afternoon. But the wind is screaming from the SSW at 25 mph on Wednesday, staying solid at 16 mph on Thursday, both onshore. That’s expert-only, and even then, it’ll be ugly. This reef setup in that wind looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Things turn Friday the 11th. The swell drops to 7ft, still a nice 14-second interval from the southwest, and the wind eases to just 6 mph from the SSW. It’s still cross-onshore in the morning, but that light breeze is manageable. The energy is 1736, moderate but building back. It’s marginal on the tide, but you can feel the potential.

Now, Saturday the 12th – this is your standout. The swell sits at 7ft, 16 seconds out of the southwest, and the combined energy is 2489 – that’s solid. The magic is the wind: a light 6–9 mph from the NNE and NNW, blowing cross-offshore. The morning session is clean, and the afternoon is even cleaner. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. At 7ft, it’s not for beginners, but for the crew who know this reef, it’s gonna be absolutely firing. Get out there early before the crowds roll in.

Sunday the 13th drops off. The swell is 4–5ft, still long-period, but the wind swings north at 19–25 mph. It’s cross-offshore and clean, but that strong breeze is gonna make it tricky and the energy is dropping to 935–1130. It’s poor.

Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are rough. The swell is inconsistent, there’s rain showers on Monday, and strong winds keep the quality poor. By Wednesday the 16th, we’re back to big, windy, onshore slop with 7ft swell and 28 mph winds. Not our friend.

Thursday the 17th brings another pulse of 12ft southwest swell at 14 seconds, with energy over 5000, but the wind is 22 mph from the SSW. That’s onshore and rough – too big for most, and blown out.

Then we hit another window: Friday the 18th. The swell is down to 4–6ft, 14 seconds from the southwest, and the wind goes cross-off from the NNW at 12 mph in the morning. The combined energy is 1366, and it’s clean. Saturday the 19th is tiny – 2ft with clean winds, but not worth suiting up.

The best long-range call is Sunday the 20th. Swell bumps back up to 5–6ft from the southwest, 15–16 seconds, and the wind is north at 12 mph, cross-offshore. Energy is 1209 to 1689, and it’s clean. It’s a promising end to the window, but a week away, so treat it as a maybe.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd are back to messy or blown-out conditions. So, bottom line: you’ve got one golden Saturday on the 12th, and a potential gem on Sunday the 20th. The rest is either too big, too windy, or both.

Rusty.

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