Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Cape Schanck over the next couple of weeks.

First up, we’re in for a flat start. The first few days are a write-off – no surf to speak of, with a howling Northerly up to 31 mph just flattening everything out. It’s a grim wait. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

Things start to stir on Sunday the 12th, but don’t get excited. A 5 ft NW windswell shows up, but the period is a short, weak 5 seconds. The combined energy is a feeble 111, and it’s blown out by a 34 mph cross-shore. It’s a mess.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th see a massive spike in size – we’re talking 12 ft of SW groundswell with a very long 15-16 second period. The energy is cranking, hitting 9858 on the 14th. But here’s the kicker: every single one of those days is hammered by strong onshore or cross-shore winds. The wave comment says “strong cross-onshore and messy” and it’s just ugly. This is a beach-and-reef setup, and with that much power and that wind, it’s looking more like a day for the kite crew than a paddle surfer. For the average punter, it’s a no-go.

Now, the first real glimmer of hope comes on Wednesday the 15th. The swell drops to a more manageable 8 ft from the SW, still with a solid 14-second period (energy 2424). The wind drops to a 12 mph cross-shore. It’s still marginal, with a cross-chop, but it’s getting there. The afternoon cleans up a bit more with a lighter 9 mph breeze.

The standout moment, and the best on offer, is Thursday the 16th afternoon. The wind goes completely glassy – 0 mph from the SW. You’ve got a clean 6 ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period (energy 1316). That’s a proper window of clean, glassy surf on a reef break. This is the one to circle. It’s an advanced spot, and with that long period, expect it to line up nicely on the reef.

Friday the 17th is also excellent. Another 8 ft SW groundswell, this time with a very long 16-second period (energy 2995). The morning sees a light cross-off from the NNW, and the afternoon goes glassy again. For experienced surfers, this is a quality run. The bigger size and longer period mean it’s punchy, but the conditions are clean.

After that, things drop off again. Saturday the 18th has some smaller 4-5 ft swell, but the wind picks up. Then we get a run of poor conditions through the 19th to the 21st, with strong winds and onshore junk. The energy is low, and it’s not worth paddling out.

There’s a late glimpse of hope on Wednesday the 23rd of July. A solid 10 ft SW groundswell rolls in with a 16-second period (energy 5141), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the North. The forecast says “marginal,” but keep an eye on this one – it could be a big, clean day for the experienced crew if the wind holds. The 24th of July holds similar size but with a much stronger 31 mph wind, which will likely ruin it.

Bottom line: don’t bother until Thursday the 16th. That afternoon is your best bet for clean, glassy waves. Friday the 17th is also a ripper. The big days on the 23rd are a long-range gamble but could be worth a look.

Rusty.

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