Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Looks like we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag on our hands for Cape Schanck over the next couple of weeks. The start is a little average, but there are a couple of sessions that genuinely stand out if you can time it right. Most of the action is solid SW groundswell, and with that long period, the reef at Cape Schanck should handle it well – just be aware it’s an advanced spot, so not one for the grommets or beginners.

We kick off on Friday the 11th with some 7ft to 8ft SW groundswell, but the wind is a light cross-onshore which leaves it a bit bumpy. The combined energy is solid, between 2394 and 3159 (moderate to strong), but it’s not the cleanest. Nothing to get too excited about there.

Saturday the 12th is where things pick up. Morning sees a light cross-offshore breeze from the north at 6 mph, cleaning up that 7ft SW groundswell (period 16 seconds). The water’s sitting at 57° – about a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Afternoon gets even better: wind swings east at a glassy 3 mph, almost dead offshore. Swell drops slightly to 7ft, but still a long 15-second period. Energy is strong (2026). This is the standout of the early window. Clean, solid lines on the reef. Worth making the trip.

Sunday the 13th and beyond takes a turn. Strong northerly winds hit 25 mph on Sunday morning, making the 5ft swell messy despite being cross-off. The energy drops to 1134 (moderate). By Monday the 14th the swell fades to 3ft and the wind picks up again. It gets ugly mid-week – Tuesday the 15th has onshore gales up to 31 mph with 12ft SW swell from a cyclone-like energy reading of 5005, but it’s just a washing machine. Wednesday the 16th holds 10ft SW groundswell but cross-onshore wind from the SSE keeps it chopped. Thursday the 17th is a slight improvement with lighter winds, but still marginal.

We get a little respite on Friday the 18th: morning has 7ft SW groundswell (16 seconds) with a moderate north-northwest cross-offshore breeze. Clean, but energy is moderate (2131). Worth a look if you’re keen, but not as good as the previous Saturday.

Then a dry spell hits. From Saturday the 19th through Monday the 21st, the swell is small and wind is mostly rubbish. There’s almost nothing rideable – a gap of about three days with no real recommendations.

Now, here’s the real standout for the whole forecast run. Tuesday the 22nd of September. Morning shows 10ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period and glassy conditions – wind is from the NE at just 3 mph, dead calm. Energy is pumping at 5282 (very strong). Afternoon is even better: 12ft SW groundswell, still 16 seconds, still glassy, energy at 6028. This is proper, solid groundswell for experts only – over 8ft is big, and this is 10ft to 12ft, so it’s serious. The long period suits the reef perfectly. Crowds are often here, but with this size, only the experienced crew will be out. That is the best session on offer, but being more than a week away (22nd September), treat it as promising, not guaranteed.

Wednesday the 23rd still has 8ft to 8ft SW swell but the wind swings cross-onshore and onshore, so quality drops. After that, it’s a slow fade into the end of the period with onshore winds and messy conditions. The 26th has 13ft swell with howling onshore winds – that’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

So, bottom line: Saturday the 12th is your best bet this week. Tuesday the 22nd is the big one to watch for next week. The rest is mostly average or blown out.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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