Cape Schanck Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.50° S 144.89° E

Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 19 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Schanck sea temperature is
14.0° C
0.8° 

Cape Schanck surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Schanck surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 19 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 13s period, SW swell with 5,584 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 13s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Schanck this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 21s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Schanck in the next 16 days are 4.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.0m 14s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Sun 19th Jul)3.5ft (1.1m) 13s
Best Surf 7AM (Sun 19th Jul)3.5ft (1.1m) 13s
Most Powerful 4PM (Fri 24th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you. This 16-day window for the peninsula is a shocker. We’ve got a solid stretch of big, raw, and blown-out conditions that are more about survival than trimming a nice wave. The first real shot at anything green comes on Monday, 21 July, but even then, it’s a marginal call.

Let’s start with the overall pattern. The sea is angry. A massive pulse of south-west swell rolls in around Thursday, 23 July, but it’s hammered by insane winds—near gale cross-onshore stuff. That kind of energy, with a combined swell energy reading of 4595, is just a washing machine out there. The trend for the next week is all about strong, messy cross-shore and onshore winds, with a few slivers of cleaner but light conditions.

The first real option to even talk about is Cape Schanck (reef). On Sunday morning, 19 July, it’s tiny at 0.3 ft from the SW, with a 20-second period. That’s a very long period groundswell, but it’s clean with a gentle breeze. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. The problem is, there’s barely any energy (16) to push through. You’d be bobbing more than surfing.

The only standout, and I’m using that term loosely, is the Monday afternoon, 20 July. A solid 3 ft south-west swell, with a 15-second period, and a combined energy of 435. The wind is cross-off from the NNW at 12 mph, which keeps things clean. It’s a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely, offering some shape. Just be aware the crowds are often here, so you won’t be alone. The catch? The forecast score is marginal, and the tide needs to be on your side. It’s the best of a bad lot, but it’s not a day to call in sick for.

After that, we hit a massive gap. From Tuesday, 21 July, through to Sunday, 27 July, the surf is either too small, too big, or blown to pieces. I’m talking about days where the swell is 8 ft to 13 ft with near gale-force winds. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s gonna be a beatdown. The energy readings are in the thousands and even nine thousand, but the wind states are “strong cross-onshore and messy” or “near gale cross-shore.” This setup is starting to look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then, we get another flicker of hope on Monday, 3 August. Monday morning sees a 4 ft SW swell with a 20-second period, and the wind is cross-off from the north at 22 mph. Energy is moderate at 1495. It’s a long-range forecast, so there’s some uncertainty, but it’s clean. Monday afternoon bumps up to 5 ft with the same long period, but the wind is stronger at 25 mph. Again, it’s a marginal call, but it’s the only window in the second week that looks even remotely rideable.

So, to sum it up: the best on offer is Monday afternoon, 20 July, at Cape Schanck. It’s not a world-beater, but it’s clean with a bit of size. The next hopeful is the first couple of days in August, but that’s a long way out and the wind is strong. For the rest, it’s either flat, blown out, or just too gnarly to enjoy. This is a rough run for the Peninsula, but it’ll turn. It always does.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the N by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 8°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (fresh winds from the NW on Wed morning, near gales from the WNW by Fri morning).

Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
2
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.1
SW
20
0.9
SW
12
0.6
SW
18
1
SW
16
1
SW
15
0.2
SSW
15
0.3
SSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.2
SW
13
1.2
SW
12
0.1
E
10
2.5
SW
11
3.5
SW
13
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
4
SW
13
3
SW
14
2.5
SW
13
3
SW
12
2.5
SW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
16
236
197
502
435
21
36
0
464
421
2
1642
4595
3788
4357
3916
5584
3853
2419
2640
1945
Wind (km/h)
15
N
10
N
20
NNW
30
NNW
20
NNW
20
NNW
20
NNW
15
N
30
N
35
NW
40
W
40
WNW
45
W
55
WSW
40
W
50
WNW
50
WNW
40
WNW
45
W
35
SW
30
W
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
High Tide
3:18PM1.79m
3:39AM1.61m
3:56PM1.76m
4:30AM1.59m
4:32PM1.70m
5:18AM1.54m
5:07PM1.62m
6:04AM1.48m
5:40PM1.53m
6:52AM1.43m
6:13PM1.44m
7:43AM1.37m
6:49PM1.36m
Low Tide
9:35PM0.26m
9:41AM0.28m
10:18PM0.20m
10:25AM0.40m
10:59PM0.19m
11:07AM0.52m
11:39PM0.22m
11:47AM0.64m
00:17AM0.26m
12:29PM0.74m
00:58AM0.32m
1:15PM0.83m
1:43AM0.37m
cloud
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part cloud
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cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
light rain
cloud
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:33
7:31
7:31
7:31
7:30
7:28
7:28
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:22
5:23
5:24
 mm
2
6
2
2
2
4
4
3
2
Temp °C
12
15
14
12
15
13
12
14
12
13
12
10
10
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
12
Feels °C
8
11
10
6
11
9
7
10
6
5
4
1
-1
-1
0
-1
5
5
2
4
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Schanck Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Schanck provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Schanck can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Schanck surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Schanck) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Schanck may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Schanck is 34 km (21 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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