Cape Schanck Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.50° S 144.89° E

Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 30 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Schanck sea temperature is
13.9° C
0.9° 

Cape Schanck surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Schanck surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period, SW swell with 3,715 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Schanck this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Schanck in the next 16 days are 3.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 13s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Fri 31st Jul)4.5ft (1.3m) 12s
Best Surf 7AM (Sat 1st Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 18s
Most Powerful10PM (Mon 3rd Aug)11ft (3.5m) 12s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Schanck over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s going on close to home.

Alright mates, it’s a bit of a slow burn for the next week or so. The real standout is looking like Saturday the 8th of August – that’s the one to circle in the calendar. But let’s walk through it day by day.

We kick off with Thursday the 30th of July. It’s not looking good at all. Strong onshore winds from the WSW at 16 mph and a solid 7ft SW swell, but with poor surf conditions. The combined swell energy is pretty healthy at 1792, but that wind is just wrecking it. No go for a paddle.

Friday the 31st sees a drop in size to 5ft from the SW, period around 12 seconds, but it’s a light cross-shore breeze, so clean-ish. Still only marginal. Not worth getting excited about yet.

Saturday the 1st of August starts to show some promise. A clean morning with a cross-offshore breeze from the north at 9 mph, and 4ft SW swell. The energy is moderate at 803. The afternoon picks up to 6ft with a 17-second period from the SW and the wind staying cross-off from the north at 12 mph – that’ll be clean. The combined energy jumps to 1982, and while it’s only a 3 out of 10 on the score, it’s the best we’ve seen so far. That long period (17 seconds) means it’s a proper groundswell, so look for the point or a reef to get the best shape. This is an advanced wave though – over 5ft and pushing.

Sunday the 2nd has similar size – 6ft – but the wind picks up to a strong 25 mph cross-offshore. It’ll be bumpy and ugly. The energy is still high at 1700, but the wind will make it a battle.

Monday the 3rd is a write-off. Strong winds, rain, and even a risk of thunderstorms. The swell is small and messy. Stay out of the water.

Tuesday the 4th has onshore winds again with an 8ft SW swell – that’s too big for beginners and only for experts, but the wind is onshore and strong at 22 mph, so it’ll be blown out and dangerous.

The rest of the first week is much the same: average conditions with onshore or strong cross-shore winds. Not worth chasing.

Now, what you’ve been waiting for: Saturday the 8th of August. This is the one to get excited about. Early morning we’ve got clean conditions with a gentle offshore breeze from the NE at 9 mph and a 6ft SW swell. The combined energy is 1185 – that’s solid and punchy. The period is 14 seconds, so it’s got some proper push and should hold up well. The water temperature is 57°, which is about normal for this time of year with a small anomaly of 2° – nothing unusual. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions” and that’s what I like to hear. Cape Schanck (a reef break, advanced, consistent, and can get crowded often) will be the spot. The swell is coming from the SW, which is the optimum direction for this break. It’s just a touch over that beginner-friendly mark at 6ft, so keep that in mind. This is the highlight of the whole 16-day window. Saturday afternoon holds up clean with an offshore lean too, 5ft and 15 seconds.

Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th fade in size and the wind picks up strong from the north, making it inconsistent and messy.

As we get into the second week, from the 11th onwards, we see some more SW swell, but the wind is consistently strong and cross-shore. There are pulses of energy over 2000 (like Tuesday the 11th morning at 2445) but with a strong breeze and cross-shore chop, it’s just not worth it for a paddle. That kind of setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Even the end of the window on the 14th of August shows a very long period of 21 seconds with a massive energy of 2919, but it’s cross-onshore and messy. A real shame.

So, to wrap it up: the next week is mostly a write-off with a glimmer on Saturday the 1st and then a proper standout on Saturday the 8th of August. That’s your best bet. After that, it’s all wind and chop. Don’t hold your breath for the second week.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, fresh winds from the N by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Mon morning, moderate winds from the WSW by Tue night).

Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
3
3
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.2
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.6
SW
12
1.4
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
1.2
SW
12
0.8
SW
18
1.8
SW
17
2.1
SW
17
1.8
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
14
1.1
SW
15
1.6
SW
14
3.5
SW
11
2.5
SW
11
2
SW
10
1.6
SW
11
1.3
SW
14
1.3
SW
13
1.1
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1619
1210
786
565
494
383
380
1816
2442
1571
1149
1109
535
965
3039
1454
836
589
706
545
352
Wind (km/h)
25
WSW
25
WSW
10
SW
10
NW
5
SW
10
NNE
15
N
20
N
25
N
40
N
35
N
30
N
40
NW
50
WSW
45
SW
35
SW
35
SW
25
WSW
30
SW
35
WSW
20
W
Wind State
on
cross-on
on
cross
on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
High Tide
12:48PM1.48m
00:06AM1.23m
1:27PM1.54m
1:02AM1.29m
2:01PM1.59m
1:50AM1.36m
2:31PM1.63m
2:33AM1.42m
2:59PM1.65m
3:14AM1.49m
3:27PM1.65m
3:54AM1.54m
3:55PM1.64m
Low Tide
6:54PM0.80m
6:33AM0.37m
7:36PM0.70m
7:18AM0.34m
8:12PM0.59m
7:59AM0.34m
8:45PM0.49m
8:37AM0.35m
9:15PM0.40m
9:14AM0.38m
9:45PM0.30m
9:50AM0.43m
10:17PM0.22m
clear
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
rain showers
thunderstorm
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:24
7:22
7:22
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:29
5:30
5:30
5:30
5:31
5:32
5:34
 mm
2
3
1
1
4
3
2
3
1
Temp °C
12
12
12
11
12
12
11
14
12
12
15
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
Feels °C
6
6
8
9
10
11
6
9
6
4
7
5
0
1
3
4
4
6
5
4
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Schanck Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Schanck provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Schanck can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Schanck surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Schanck) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Schanck may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Schanck is 34 km (21 miles) from Mornington. If you plan a holiday in Mornington Peninsula, look for hotels and other accommodation in Mornington. Mornington has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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