Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve had a proper squiz at the charts for Cape Schanck, and I’ll be straight with ya – it’s a rough start and a long wait for anything worth paddling out for. The first solid week is pretty much a write-off thanks to howling winds and junky conditions, but there’s a glimmer of hope later on if you’re patient and you’ve got the skill to handle a reef break.

We kick off on Saturday the 11th of July with a northerly gale ripping through. The combined wave energy is a measly 0 (zero), so there’s nothing doing. Total flat spell. This crap continues all the way through Sunday and Monday the 13th of July. Even though the swell height climbs to 12 ft with a very long 15 to 16 second period from the SW, the wind is a solid cross-shore at 28 mph, making everything a mess. The combined energy jumps to a massive 5941, but without good wind, it's just a washing machine. Nothing for a surfer here.

We finally see a break in the clouds on Wednesday the 15th of July. The swell drops to 8 ft from the SW (period 14 seconds), and while the energy is still strong at 2474, the morning wind is NW at 16 mph, creating a cross-chop. It’s marginal, and the score reflects that. The afternoon improves a tad with lighter WNW winds, but it’s still marginal.

Now, here’s where it gets a bit more interesting. Thursday the 16th of July is the first real standout in this grim period. The morning sees a drop to 6 ft SW swell (14 seconds), but the wind swings NNW at 12 mph, going cross-offshore. That means clean lines, folks. The combined energy is 1344, and the conditions are described as clean. The afternoon is even better – the wind drops to a light 6 mph NNW, still cross-off, with the same 6 ft swell. The report says “expect very good surf conditions,” so that Thursday arvo session is your best bet in this whole outlook.

Friday the 17th of July carries on the good form. The swell bumps up a touch to 7 ft from the SW, with a very long 16-second period giving it heaps of push (combined energy 2588). The morning has a moderate 12 mph NNW cross-off, but the afternoon is a gem: light 6 mph NNW winds, clean faces, and the report calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the pick of the fortnight for sure – a proper groundswell with clean offshore wind on a reef at Cape Schanck. It’s an advanced break, so don’t take it lightly, and it can get crowded here sometimes.

After that, the window slams shut again. Saturday the 18th of July drops off quickly, with the swell falling to 5 ft and the wind picking up to 22 mph from the north on the weekend, killing the quality. Sunday the 19th is even worse – tiny 2 ft swell with a near gale. Then we get a messy cross-onshore period from Monday the 20th through to early the next week.

There is another pulse showing around Wednesday the 22nd of July, with a clean 8 ft SW swell (12 seconds) and a moderate NNW cross-off in the morning. Combined energy is 1664, but the afternoon goes cross-shore again. It’s a backup option at best. Thursday the 23rd of July has a bigger 8 ft SW swell (16 seconds, 4214 energy) and clean morning wind, but then the wind swings onshore and it all falls apart. The forecast gets very uncertain after that, with mostly onshore winds and messy conditions right through to the end of the outlook on Sunday the 26th of July.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild to report.

So to wrap it up: the first week is a total loss. Your window is Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th of July. That Friday afternoon is the absolute standout – solid 7 ft groundswell with light offshore winds. If you can hold out and you’ve got the skills for a reef break, that’s your call. Otherwise, it’s a pretty bleak 16 days for Cape Schanck.

Rusty.

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