Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s going on close to home.

Alright mates, it’s a bit of a slow burn for the next week or so. The real standout is looking like Saturday the 8th of August – that’s the one to circle in the calendar. But let’s walk through it day by day.

We kick off with Thursday the 30th of July. It’s not looking good at all. Strong onshore winds from the WSW at 16 mph and a solid 7ft SW swell, but with poor surf conditions. The combined swell energy is pretty healthy at 1792, but that wind is just wrecking it. No go for a paddle.

Friday the 31st sees a drop in size to 5ft from the SW, period around 12 seconds, but it’s a light cross-shore breeze, so clean-ish. Still only marginal. Not worth getting excited about yet.

Saturday the 1st of August starts to show some promise. A clean morning with a cross-offshore breeze from the north at 9 mph, and 4ft SW swell. The energy is moderate at 803. The afternoon picks up to 6ft with a 17-second period from the SW and the wind staying cross-off from the north at 12 mph – that’ll be clean. The combined energy jumps to 1982, and while it’s only a 3 out of 10 on the score, it’s the best we’ve seen so far. That long period (17 seconds) means it’s a proper groundswell, so look for the point or a reef to get the best shape. This is an advanced wave though – over 5ft and pushing.

Sunday the 2nd has similar size – 6ft – but the wind picks up to a strong 25 mph cross-offshore. It’ll be bumpy and ugly. The energy is still high at 1700, but the wind will make it a battle.

Monday the 3rd is a write-off. Strong winds, rain, and even a risk of thunderstorms. The swell is small and messy. Stay out of the water.

Tuesday the 4th has onshore winds again with an 8ft SW swell – that’s too big for beginners and only for experts, but the wind is onshore and strong at 22 mph, so it’ll be blown out and dangerous.

The rest of the first week is much the same: average conditions with onshore or strong cross-shore winds. Not worth chasing.

Now, what you’ve been waiting for: Saturday the 8th of August. This is the one to get excited about. Early morning we’ve got clean conditions with a gentle offshore breeze from the NE at 9 mph and a 6ft SW swell. The combined energy is 1185 – that’s solid and punchy. The period is 14 seconds, so it’s got some proper push and should hold up well. The water temperature is 57°, which is about normal for this time of year with a small anomaly of 2° – nothing unusual. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions” and that’s what I like to hear. Cape Schanck (a reef break, advanced, consistent, and can get crowded often) will be the spot. The swell is coming from the SW, which is the optimum direction for this break. It’s just a touch over that beginner-friendly mark at 6ft, so keep that in mind. This is the highlight of the whole 16-day window. Saturday afternoon holds up clean with an offshore lean too, 5ft and 15 seconds.

Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th fade in size and the wind picks up strong from the north, making it inconsistent and messy.

As we get into the second week, from the 11th onwards, we see some more SW swell, but the wind is consistently strong and cross-shore. There are pulses of energy over 2000 (like Tuesday the 11th morning at 2445) but with a strong breeze and cross-shore chop, it’s just not worth it for a paddle. That kind of setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Even the end of the window on the 14th of August shows a very long period of 21 seconds with a massive energy of 2919, but it’s cross-onshore and messy. A real shame.

So, to wrap it up: the next week is mostly a write-off with a glimmer on Saturday the 1st and then a proper standout on Saturday the 8th of August. That’s your best bet. After that, it’s all wind and chop. Don’t hold your breath for the second week.

Rusty.

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