Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s coming for Cape Schanck over the next sixteen days.

It’s a rough start. Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th are a write-off. There’s a solid SW groundswell building from 5ft up to 8ft, but the wind’s all wrong – cross-onshore at 15–22 mph. The combined wave energy jumps into the thousands (1007–3549), so there’s plenty of power, but it’s lumpy, choppy, and ugly. Not worth paddling out for.

Thursday the 13th pushes to a hefty 10ft SW swell, but again it’s cross-onshore and lumpy. Energy peaks at 4595, but the wind ruins it. Friday the 14th stays big and onshore – 10ft SW in the morning, dropping to 8ft by afternoon with a straight onshore SW breeze at 19 mph. That’s expert-level size, but the wind makes it a battle. Skip it.

Saturday the 15th is still marginal. Swell drops to about 8ft, but the wind is still cross or cross-onshore, 9 mph. Energy is winding down (2724–2359). Not clean yet.

Sunday the 16th is where things turn. Morning sees a clean 6ft SW groundswell with a light offshore NE breeze at only 3 mph. The energy is still solid at 1526, and for experienced surfers, the conditions are excellent. This is the first real standout. The break is a consistent reef, advanced-only, fairly exposed south-east, and that offshore wind will make for clean, lined-up waves. Crowds are often a factor here, so expect company. Water temp is 57°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Monday the 17th keeps clean conditions in the morning – 5ft SW swell, 6 mph offshore NE, energy at 779 – very good surf, but smaller. Tuesday the 18th stays clean with cross-off winds, 4–5ft SW swell, energy around 1182. Not huge, but tidy and fun.

Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th see the swell fade to 3ft then just 2ft, with clean but weak conditions. Energy drops to 503 then 157. Not much to get excited about.

There’s a long gap of poor days from Friday the 21st through to Monday the 24th of August. The swell flattens then pops up with onshore gales – 25 mph SW winds on Saturday the 22nd, strong breeze, rain, and horrible. Even when the swell returns on Sunday the 23rd with 6ft from the SSE, the period is a short 8 seconds and the wind is cross-onshore. Kite surfers might have a go, but it’s not for paddle surfing.

Finally, a late standout: Tuesday the 25th of August. Morning brings a clean 6ft SW groundswell with a long 18-second period, light cross-off east wind at 9 mph, and combined energy at 2030. That’s a proper groundswell – long lines, plenty of push, and clean conditions. The reef will handle it well. The afternoon stays nice at 5ft with a 17-second period, though the wind switches to cross. Crowds are likely, but this is the best session of the whole run after Sunday.

Wednesday the 26th gets blown out again – 25–28 mph cross-off winds ruin a 5ft SW swell.

So, if you’re picking highlights: Sunday morning the 16th is your first clean, solid option. Tuesday the 25th is the second – bigger, longer period, and clean. Both mornings. Everything else is either too windy, too small, or a straight-up mess. Plan around those two windows.

Rusty.

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