Cape Schanck Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, it’s Rusty. Gotta be straight with you—this 16-day window for Cape Schanck is a bit of a mixed bag. The first week is mostly messy or too big with poor conditions, but there’s a true standout window by Saturday the 12th that’s worth circling on the calendar. The second week also has a decent-looking pulse, but a big wind event in between will keep things quiet for a few days.

We start with the dawn patrol on Monday the 7th—honestly, don't even bother. We’ve got 7ft of SW swell coming in with a nasty 35 km/h cross-on, and the water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year down here. The combined energy reads 1161 (moderate), but the wind is just ruining it—poor surf all day. Same story Tuesday the 8th: the swell drops to 4ft, but a cross-on wind keeps things choppy, even though the period jumps to 18 seconds (nice groundswell). It’s only a marginal call. Wednesday the 9th is a write-off—12ft to 13ft of SW swell, 40 km/h onshore winds, strong energy (11792 and 9967), but that’s big and ugly, only for the brave or the stupid.

Thursday the 10th is still too big with 12ft to 10ft SW swell and moderate onshore winds—score’s a zero again. Friday the 11th eases to 7ft SW swell with lighter winds, but it’s still cross-on, and the combined energy is still solid (1736 and 2367), but the quality is only marginal.

Now, Saturday the 12th is where we finally get a window. This is the standout of the first week. We’ve got a clean 7ft SW swell at 16 seconds in the morning, with a light N wind cross-off, and then by afternoon the wind swings ENE at 5 km/h, going offshore. The combined energy sits at 2267 and 1774 (moderate-strong). This is the cleanest, best-shaped swell of the whole forecast. It’s excellent for experienced surfers—crowds are possible here, so get in early. That 15–16 second period will give you long lines, but it’s a reef, so watch the shallow boils.

Sunday the 13th starts to blow out with 40 km/h N cross-off winds—clean but howling, energy dropping to 882 and 831. Monday the 14th is a mess again with cross and onshore winds. Then we’ve got a big gap: Tuesday the 15th through Friday the 18th is all marginal to poor. Tuesday the 15th has 10ft to 12ft of SW swell but onshore winds—too big and choppy. Wednesday and Thursday are marginal at best, and Friday the 18th is blown out by 45 km/h N winds.

But then, Sunday the 20th lights up again. We get a 7ft SW swell at 16 seconds, light E/SE wind cross-off, and the combined energy is 2119 (moderate-strong). It’s clean and excellent for experienced surfers. This is the second standout—another cracker. The morning will be glassy, and it’s a reef setup, so those long-period lines will reel down the point. Afternoon gets a bit windier, but still decent.

Monday the 21st has a tiny 2ft SW swell but with a freakishly long 24-second period—that’s very long period groundswell, and combined energy is low (381). It’s clean, but very small. The afternoon jumps to 8ft with a 14-second period—looks promising but the winds freshen. Tuesday the 22nd closes out the window with 6ft to 8ft of SW swell and 18–19 second periods, but cross-on winds keep it marginal. Energy is high (3826 and 5113), but the chop holds it back.

All in all, your best bets are Saturday September 12 and Sunday September 20—both have clean, lined-up SW swell around the 6–7ft mark, offshore or cross-off winds, and good energy. Everything else is either blown out, too big, or not worth suiting up for. Keep those days marked, and don’t bother paddling out in the middle of the week unless you love a beating.

Rusty.

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