Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been lookin’ over the next few weeks for Cape Paterson – and I gotta be straight with ya, it’s a tough run. This spot’s a beach and reef setup, sheltered from the swell, so it takes a fair bit to get it goin’ right. The water’s sittin’ at 57°F, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year – nothin’ wild, but a nice little touch if you’re in a wetsuit.

The first week’s a write-off for decent surf. We’ve got some solid swell rollin’ in – Wednesday the 2nd sees 7 ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period, and the combined energy’s a massive 2285 – but the wind’s cross-on, blowin’ at 25 km/h, and it’s choppy as. That trend sticks: Thursday the 3rd pumps up to 13 ft from the WSW, energy up to 5447, but again, cross-on wind at 35 km/h and the forecast says poor surf. Honestly, with that much power and messy wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Through Friday and into the weekend, it’s more of the same – big swell, but cross-shore or cross-on winds, lumpy, and the scores are low. By Monday the 7th, the swell drops to 4 ft from the WSW, and we get a moment of offshore wind from the SW at 10 km/h on the Monday afternoon, but the wave comment says poor surf, so it’s not worth paddlin’ out for.

Now, there’s a gap after that – Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th stay marginal or poor, with strong onshore winds. But then we get a proper standout. Thursday the 10th morning – this is the one to circle. The swell’s a solid 12 ft from the SW, period 17 seconds, and the combined energy is a beastly 6520. The wind’s light cross-on from the W at just 10 km/h, and the forecast says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” – but that’s the best we’ve seen all week. For an advanced surfer, that’s a session worth chasin’. The long period means it’s gonna be a proper groundswell, so the reef might handle it better than the beach. The afternoon of the 10th still holds 10 ft from the SW, with near-glass from the SSW at 5 km/h – still clean, but a notch down.

Friday the 11th is a beaut too. The morning brings 6 ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the wind’s light cross-off from the N at 10 km/h – that’s clean, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” The combined energy’s 1424 – still moderate-strong, but manageable. The afternoon’s similar with 5 ft and a slight air from the NNW – clean, but smaller.

After that, the wind turns nasty again on the 12th and 13th, with fresh cross-shore or onshore gusts, and the swell holds around 5 ft to 5 ft but the quality’s gone. The second week looks quiet – nothing above a 6 ft on the 16th, and the winds are mostly cross-on or onshore. But keep an eye on Thursday the 17th afternoon – that’s a long-range promise. The swell jumps to 12 ft from the SW, period 17 seconds, and the combined energy hits 13139 – that’s massive. The wind’s cross-off from the ESE at 35 km/h, which is a bit strong, but the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” with a score of 5 out of 10 – the best in the whole run. Could be a big, clean wave if the stars align, but it’s a week and a half away, so we’ll see.

Best on offer? Thursday the 10th morning – that 12 ft SW groundswell with light cross-on wind is the standout. Friday the 11th morning is a close second for the clean cross-off conditions. The rest of the window’s a mess, but when it’s this tough, one good session is all you need.

Rusty.

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