
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 9 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 8,200 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 10 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Fri 10th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Cape Paterson.
Alright, the next couple of days aren’t much to write home about, but there’s a glimmer of hope if you’re patient. The first proper chance to get wet kicks off on Thursday the 9th of July with a solid 4ft SW groundswell, period hanging around 15 seconds, and the wind is glassy out of the south at just 3 mph. The water’s sitting at 58°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year. That combination is going to give you some clean, lined-up waves, especially given the swell energy is moderate (724). It’s a beach and reef setup here, so with that long period, the waves might stand up a bit straight on the beach banks, but the reef sections could be really nice. It’s sheltered from the swell, so don’t expect giant bombs—just fun, rideable stuff. Crowds can turn up sometimes, so keep an eye out.
Friday the 10th is actually the standout of this early window. Morning starts clear with a light cross-off northerly at 6 mph, and the swell lifts to 5ft from the WSW, still that lovely long 15-second period. The energy bumps up to moderate (1069), and conditions look very good. By the afternoon, it goes dead calm with 0 mph wind and glassy conditions, still a 5ft SW swell. That’s about as clean as you’ll get it.
Saturday the 11th starts to fall apart. The swell drops to 4ft, but the wind swings northerly and cranks up to 16 mph in the morning and 25 mph by the afternoon. That’s a no-go—it’ll be messy and blown out. The weekend goes sour from there. Sunday the 12th sees the swell jump to 13ft, but with a near gale blowing 34 mph from the NW, it’s a washing machine. That’s expert-only territory and honestly more for kite surfers than paddle surfing. The energy is strong (4523), but the quality is terrible.
There’s a long gap of poor conditions through the middle of the week, with strong winds and big, messy swell. Monday the 13th has 10ft waves but strong cross-shore winds—just ugly. Tuesday the 14th is cross-onshore and messy with 13ft swell. Not worth it.
The next real window opens up on Thursday the 16th? No, that’s still marginal. Let’s look at Friday the 17th of July. That’s your next proper standout. Morning brings a 6ft SW groundswell, 16-second period, with a gentle cross-off northerly breeze at 9 mph. The energy is moderate (1438). Then the afternoon goes glassy again—WSW breeze at just 3 mph, 5ft SW swell, 15 seconds. That’s going to be clean, lined-up, and fun. Another very good session.
Saturday the 18th is still okay but with a moderate breeze and marginal tide conditions, it’s more of a backup.
Now for the real gem in this forecast—Thursday the 23rd of July. Morning brings a 6ft SW swell with an 18-second period—that’s very long period groundswell. The wind is light cross-shore from the WNW at 3 mph, and the energy is strong (2129). The afternoon is even better: 6ft SW swell, 17-second period, glassy conditions with a light SSE breeze at 3 mph. The energy is strong (2167) and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. That is the pick of the whole outlook. Just remember, with that very long period, it might be a bit straight at the beach banks, but the reef sections will be firing. Crowds are possible.
Then Friday the 24th keeps the run going with a 10ft SW swell in the morning—that’s big, expert-only territory—but with light cross-off winds and clean conditions. The energy is strong (4119). The afternoon sees a 13ft SW swell, but the period drops to 9 seconds, making it a bit short and fat, so the morning is the call there.
Overall, your best bets are Friday the 10th and Thursday the 23rd, with Friday the 17th as a solid backup. Everything else in between is either blown out, too big and messy, or just flat.
Stay safe, and I’ll see you out there.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, near gales from the NW by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun night, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon morning, light winds from the W by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thu 16 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 7 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1172 | 1069 | 967 | 752 | 561 | 419 | 662 | 5811 | 6449 | 4324 | 4152 | 4217 | 7652 | 7140 | 5517 | 4412 | 2612 | 1977 | 1368 | 1002 | 731 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | ||||||||
— | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | |
— | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
Feels °C | 8 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | — | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
1172 | 1069 | 967 | 752 | 561 | 419 | 273 | 4177 | — | 4324 | 4152 | 4217 | — | — | — | — | 2612 | 1977 | 1368 | 1002 | 731 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | — | — | — | SE 8 | W 8 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 21 |
9 | — | — | — | 3 | 32 | — | — | — | — | 18 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | E 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | W 7 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | NNW 5 | NW 6 | NW 6 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 4 | 21 | 42 | 662 | 5811 | 6449 | 45 | 155 | 169 | 7652 | 7140 | 5517 | 4412 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 233 | 467 | 466 | 423 | 113 | 227 | 227 | 447 | 114 | 244 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











