Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie and let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks down at Cape Paterson. I won’t sugarcoat it – for the most part, the ocean’s gonna have a bit of a mood on it. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds, and the surf quality is going to suffer for it. There’s plenty of size at times, but it’s going to be messy and lumpy, not the kind of clean lines we chase.

To start things off, this Tuesday the 15th, we’ve got the swell pushing 12ft, but it’s a SW swell with a 45 km/h onshore wind. The energy in the water is strong, with a combined value of 2033. It’s going to be a wild, blown-out mess. Not worth the drive unless you’re keen to wrestle some chop. That trend sticks with us through the rest of the week and into the weekend – solid swell, but the wind just won’t give us a break. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s not freezing, but it’s still booties weather.

Thursday the 17th brings a bit of relief in the swell size, dropping to around 6ft, but the cross-on wind keeps it choppy. Friday the 18th is a tease – the swell is 6ft with a longer 16-second period, and the energy is moderate at 1715. But the cross-shore wind just messes it all up, making it lumpy. It’s a “maybe if you’re desperate” kind of day. The weekend is more of the same, with strong breezes and messy conditions. Sunday the 20th does have a moment with a clean cross-off wind in the morning, but the swell is down to 4ft, and it's weak – only an energy of 820. Still, it’s the closest we get to a decent wave all weekend, just don’t expect much power.

Monday the 21st, we’re back to onshore winds and a solid 7ft of SW swell, but it’s not going to be pretty. The next real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday the 22nd. The swell holds at 8ft, with a long 16-second period, and the energy is strong at 3096. The wind is light, but it’s still cross-shore, which leaves it a bit rippled. There’s a window there where it could be alright, but it’s not the clean one we’re after.

Now, here’s where things start to turn. Wednesday the 23rd, we finally get our standout. The wind goes light and cross-off in the morning, and the 5ft SW swell is clean. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and that makes all the difference. This is your best bet of the whole run. The energy is moderate at 1140, but the clean conditions will make it feel better than it looks. Get out there early.

Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th keep the good vibes going, with light offshore and cross-off winds. The swell is down to around 4ft – 4ft, but it’s clean. The energy is weak, down in the 400-500 range, so it’s small and gutless, but it’s surfable. For the beginner or the longboarder, this is your window. It’s small but clean, and the crowd might be a bit of a factor as word gets out.

Then, just as we get a taste, it gets taken away. Saturday the 26th, a strong breeze from the NW ramps up the chop, and the swell jumps back to 7ft with a big 18-second period. The energy is strong at 2690, but the wind just kills it. Sunday the 27th is more of the same – messy, cross-onshore and a solid 8ft on the sets. It’s going to be a washing machine out there.

The final stretch, from Monday the 28th into Wednesday the 30th, is a story of fading swell and persistent cross-shore winds. Monday the 28th has a 7ft SW swell, but the wind is light, so it’s only fairly choppy. It’s still not great. The energy drops off from there, and by Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re looking at 4ft – 4ft of weak, flat swell with fresh cross-shore winds. It’s a bit of a nothing end to the run.

So, for the pick of the fortnight, it’s Wednesday the 23rd at Cape Paterson (Cape-Patterson). It’s not the biggest, but it’s the cleanest. Get on it early before the tide and the afternoon sea breeze mess with it. The swell direction is SW, and the light offshore wind will have it looking glassy. That’s your day.

Otherwise, the rest is a grind. There’s plenty of water moving, but the wind is going to be against us for most of it. Keep an eye on the charts, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more