Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut to the chase: this stretch of coast is looking pretty bleak. We’ve got a whole lotta nothing worth paddling out for, and a heap of blown-out, onshore slop. If you’re desperate, there might be a couple of windows, but you’ll need to be patient and lower your expectations.

The first real chance to even think about getting wet is Thursday the 28th. The swell starts to pick up, but it’s rough. Don’t get too hyped. Friday afternoon the 29th looks like a mess with moderate onshore winds.

We finally get a bit of a setup worth a look on Sunday morning, the 31st of August. There’s a solid 6ft of south-west swell rolling in with a long 15-second period, and the combined energy is decent at 1562. The wind is light and cross-shore, coming out of the north-west. It’s not perfect, but it’s the first time things might actually have a bit of shape. Cape Paterson (Bass Coast) will be the spot, but it’s a beach and reef setup that’s sheltered, so it might hold some of that energy. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 57°F, which is notable but not crazy.

Honestly, the standout in this whole sorry run is shaping up for Saturday the 5th of September. That’s the one to circle. The morning looks excellent for experienced surfers. We’re talking 8ft of west-south-west swell with a 15-second period, and the energy reading is strong at 2510. The wind is light, cross-offshore from the north, and the call is clean. This is the real deal. The swell is over 8ft, so this is only for the experts. If you’re not confident, stay on the sand. The afternoon is still okay, but the wind picks up to a moderate cross-off.

The week after that, it’s a write-off. The winds get strong, the surf gets messy, and by Wednesday the 9th, the swell jumps to a thumping 10ft with a huge energy reading of 5516, but it’s all blown out with a strong onshore flow. That’s just a washing machine, not surf. Kite surfers might have a field day, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a no-go.

There’s a few other days where the conditions are “marginal” but the winds are just too cross-onshore or the period is a bit short. The early part of September has a few clean-looking mornings with cross-off winds, like the 2nd and the 4th, but the swell direction is more west-south-west and it’s a little less consistent, so the quality just isn’t there.

So, here’s the plan: keep your eye on Sunday the 31st for a possible average session, but the real prize is the morning of Saturday the 5th. That’s the one. Everything else is about finding a different hobby for a while.

Rusty out.

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