Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 31 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5°C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 31 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-shore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 6 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 10,523 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Mon 31st Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 14s
Best Surf 1AM (Sun 6th Sep)15ft (4.5m) 16s
Most Powerful 1AM (Sun 6th Sep)15ft (4.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Well, we’ve got a bit of a rough start. The first few days are looking pretty grim for a paddle. The swell is there, but the wind is just not playing ball. We’ll have to wait it out.

The first real chance to get wet is on Monday, September 7th. The early morning is looking sweet at Cape Paterson, with a 5 ft swell from the WSW and glassy conditions. That’s the kind of start to the day you dream about. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so a decent wetsuit is still your best mate.

After that, the wind messes things up again for a few days. The next standout window looks like Thursday, September 10th morning. The swell drops a touch to 6 ft from the SW, but with light cross-shore breezes, it could clean up nicely. The combined energy is moderate (2618), so there’s some push in the water.

But the real prize, the one I’d be circling on the calendar, is Friday, September 11th morning. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is light and cross-offshore, making for clean, lined-up waves. The combined energy is solid (1824), and with that long period (15 seconds), it’ll be a proper groundswell. This is a point break and reef setup, so that long period energy will wrap in nicely. Keep an eye on the crowds, as it can get busy at Cape Paterson.

After that, the swell fades and the last few days of the outlook are small and onshore, so don’t bother.

If you’re an expert, the big swell days around September 3rd and 4th are massive (13-16 ft), but with howling onshore winds, it’s a complete mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Mon afternoon). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Wed night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun morning).

Mon
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
3
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
!
3
4
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.8
SW
14
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1
SW
15
2.1
WSW
16
2.1
WSW
15
2.5
WSW
15
4
WSW
10
4
WSW
13
4
WSW
15
3
WSW
15
2.5
WSW
16
2.2
WSW
15
4.5
WSW
12
4.5
WSW
13
4.5
WSW
16
3.5
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
15
2
WSW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1307
2091
1149
816
418
2023
2069
2913
3398
6260
6604
4692
3415
2318
5700
7619
10523
5875
3121
1474
Wind (km/h)
10
WSW
15
N
35
NNW
35
NW
35
NW
25
WSW
15
W
35
NW
40
W
40
W
30
WNW
30
NW
35
NNW
50
NNW
50
WNW
45
W
30
WNW
20
NNW
5
NE
15
E
Wind State
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
2:23AM0.73m
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
3:41PM0.78m
4:32AM0.80m
4:18PM0.78m
5:16AM0.79m
4:57PM0.77m
6:05AM0.77m
5:41PM0.75m
Low Tide
8:13PM0.16m
8:27AM0.18m
8:49PM0.10m
9:07AM0.18m
9:26PM0.06m
9:47AM0.19m
10:04PM0.03m
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
11:08AM0.24m
11:30PM0.02m
11:54AM0.27m
00:19AM0.04m
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
mod rain
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
mod rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:35
6:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:53
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
5:58
5:59
 mm
2
4
6
2
1
9
Temp °C
11
12
18
19
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
14
15
15
11
12
12
14
16
12
Feels °C
9
10
10
11
9
9
10
3
4
3
5
6
8
7
0
2
4
10
14
9
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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