Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 23 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 22 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 18s period, WSW swell with 3,771 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 3s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 16s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 16s
Most Powerful10AM (Fri 28th Aug)8ft (2.5m) 18s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Cape Paterson, and honestly, it’s a rough run for the next couple of weeks. The swell is there, but the wind just won’t play ball. We’ve got a solid 16-day window on the cards, but the first few days are a write-off. There’s a bit of a gap until we see anything worth paddling out for, so let’s get into it.

The overall pattern is frustrating: plenty of SW groundswell, but the wind is mostly cross-on or cross, and it’s blowing hard. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

Sunday morning the 23rd is the first surf we see, but it’s just a tease. Swell is 8ft from the SW at a long 14 seconds, and the energy is strong (2193). But the wind is cross-off from the NNW at 9 mph, which is actually not bad, but the wave comment says it’s marginal. I’m not calling it a standout because the quality is questionable. Sunday afternoon gets worse – cross-on at 6 mph, messy.

Monday the 24th is a flat-out no-go. Tuesday the 25th? A bit of clean cross-off wind in the morning with 5ft SW swell, but the energy is weak (801) and the rain is pouring down. Not worth it.

The whole first week is a battle. Wednesday the 26th has 7ft SW swell but onshore winds at 16 mph, making it a chop-fest. By Friday the 28th, we’ve got a massive 8ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds – very long period – and the energy is extreme (4201). But the wind is a horrible cross-on from the WSW at 19 mph, so it’s lumpy and messy. Only experts would even consider it, and even then, it’s not fun. The following days are more of the same: strong winds, messy waves. For a spot like this, which is a beach and reef setup, it’s honestly looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during these big, windy days.

Finally, we get a glimmer on Sunday the 30th. Morning has 7ft SW swell at 18 seconds, energy is still strong (3449), but the wind is cross-on at 12 mph. It’s still choppy, but it’s a step up from the chaos. Monday the 31st morning is the best of the whole run: clean, cross-off NNW wind at 19 mph, with a solid 7ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds. The energy is high (1983), and it’s clean. That’s your one true standout in the first week – a brief window of clean, powerful waves. But it’s only a morning mission, and the wind swings in the afternoon.

Then the second week gets ugly again. Strong winds, huge swell, but all onshore. By Thursday the 3rd of September, we’ve got 12ft WSW swell at 14 seconds, energy is through the roof (6869), but it’s a washing machine. That’s experts-only territory, and even then, the wind is a fresh cross, making it lumpy. Friday the 4th of September has a slightly better afternoon with 8ft WSW swell at 16 seconds and light cross-on wind at 6 mph, still marginal. Saturday the 5th is a write-off with near gale winds.

The very end of the forecast, Sunday the 6th of September, offers a surprise. Morning has 8ft WSW swell at 10 seconds (short period, so not as much grunt), but the wind is clean cross-off from the ENE at 12 mph. The energy is moderate (1567). It’s not a classic, but clean 8ft waves at Cape Paterson with offshore wind? That’s a rare treat. Monday the 7th morning is also cross-off but with a cross-shore wind, so it’s not as good.

So, the standout pick is Monday the 31st of August morning – clean, 7ft SW groundswell, 16 second period, cross-off wind. It’s the closest thing to a proper session. The second standout is Sunday the 6th of September morning – 8ft WSW, clean cross-off wind, but a shorter period. That one’s promising but less certain being so far out. The rest of the time, it’s a battle with the wind. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Wed night, fresh winds from the W by Fri night).

Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
2
2
1
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
SW
14
2.1
SW
14
1.7
SW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.4
WSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.6
SW
15
1.3
WSW
14
2
SW
13
1.7
SW
13
0.9
SW
12
1.1
WSW
12
1.3
WSW
19
2.5
WSW
18
2.3
WSW
17
2
WSW
16
1.6
WSW
14
2.4
WSW
14
2.3
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1979
1617
1394
822
690
585
613
659
1045
672
1367
966
248
336
1255
3771
2939
1957
1057
2222
1697
Wind (km/h)
15
NNW
10
WSW
20
NNW
25
NNW
15
WNW
15
NE
20
ESE
15
SSW
25
WSW
25
WSW
25
WSW
10
WSW
20
NW
15
WNW
30
W
30
WSW
30
WSW
30
W
40
WNW
45
W
25
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
off
cross-off
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
High Tide
6:31PM0.66m
7:55AM0.63m
7:14PM0.63m
8:55AM0.62m
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
11:07AM0.63m
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
Low Tide
12:46PM0.34m
1:13AM0.16m
1:34PM0.37m
2:03AM0.19m
2:35PM0.40m
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
4:07AM0.22m
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
clear
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mod rain
mod rain
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
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part cloud
cloud
clear
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cloud
part cloud
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clear
cloud
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<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:50
6:48
6:47
6:45
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:46
5:46
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
 mm
6
10
1
1
1
Temp °C
11
13
13
16
16
14
11
12
13
12
12
11
12
14
13
12
12
12
13
13
12
Feels °C
8
10
9
11
13
11
8
9
8
6
6
7
7
10
7
5
5
6
5
6
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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