Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with 10,649 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.3m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 19) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Mon 13th Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson.
We’re looking at a pretty bleak start to the forecast period, I’m not gonna lie. For the first several days, from Sunday the 12th right through to the end of the week, it’s a write-off. The wind is going to be howling – we’re talking near gale force and strong breezes out of the northwest and west – and it’s whipping up a messy, choppy, cross-shore mess. The swell is big, way over 8 feet, but with that wind, it’s just ugly. The combined wave energy is massive, and it’s all for nothing. Don’t even think about it.
We’ve got a long gap with no real recommendations until things start to settle down around Wednesday the 15th. Even then, it’s only marginal. The swell drops to around 6 to 7 feet on Wednesday and Thursday, but it’s still coming from the WSW with a long period, and the wind is a light cross-shore breeze. It’s not clean, just a bit of cross-chop. Not worth paddling out for.
The real standout, and the only one worth circling on your calendar, is Friday the 24th. The morning session is the pick of the entire 16 days. We’re looking at a solid 8 feet of swell from the WSW, with a nice long period – that’s proper groundswell. The real magic is the wind: a light offshore breeze from the ENE. That means clean, glassy faces. The conditions are noted as excellent for experienced surfers. This is a proper session. Keep in mind that long period swell like this can be a bit fast and straight for a beach break, but Cape Paterson (Victoria) is a beach and reef setup, so it might find a good line on the reef. The water temps are about average for this time of year.
The Saturday the 25th also looks alright, with similar swell size (around 7 to 8 feet) from the SW and a clean morning with a light offshore wind, but it’s not quite the standout of Friday.
After that, the wind picks up again into the following week, and we’re back to poor conditions.
So, look, it’s a long wait, but that Friday the 24th is the one. Set your alarm.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun night, min 11°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NW on Sun morning, moderate winds from the WNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 10°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3607 | 5239 | 5428 | 7797 | 8461 | 8772 | 6228 | 4861 | 3371 | 2281 | 1594 | 1330 | 1187 | 1289 | 1694 | 1933 | 1776 | 1244 | 802 | 615 | 520 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | 8:55PM0.15m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  |  | |  | | |  | |  | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — |
 | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — |
mm | 1 | 5 | 4 | — | 4 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — | — | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 5601 | 7023 | — | — | 3371 | 2281 | 1594 | 1330 | 1187 | 1289 | 1694 | 1933 | 1776 | 1244 | 802 | 615 | 520 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 23 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 37 | 276 | — | — | — | — | — | 21 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 3607 | 5239 | 5428 | 7797 | 8461 | 8772 | 6228 | 4861 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 120 | 429 | 651 | 141 | 227 | 889 | 493 | 117 | 117 | 54 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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