Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 31 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 6 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 10,523 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sun 6th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Sun 6th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.
Well, we’ve got a bit of a rough start. The first few days are looking pretty grim for a paddle. The swell is there, but the wind is just not playing ball. We’ll have to wait it out.
The first real chance to get wet is on Monday, September 7th. The early morning is looking sweet at Cape Paterson, with a 5 ft swell from the WSW and glassy conditions. That’s the kind of start to the day you dream about. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so a decent wetsuit is still your best mate.
After that, the wind messes things up again for a few days. The next standout window looks like Thursday, September 10th morning. The swell drops a touch to 6 ft from the SW, but with light cross-shore breezes, it could clean up nicely. The combined energy is moderate (2618), so there’s some push in the water.
But the real prize, the one I’d be circling on the calendar, is Friday, September 11th morning. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is light and cross-offshore, making for clean, lined-up waves. The combined energy is solid (1824), and with that long period (15 seconds), it’ll be a proper groundswell. This is a point break and reef setup, so that long period energy will wrap in nicely. Keep an eye on the crowds, as it can get busy at Cape Paterson.
After that, the swell fades and the last few days of the outlook are small and onshore, so don’t bother.
If you’re an expert, the big swell days around September 3rd and 4th are massive (13-16 ft), but with howling onshore winds, it’s a complete mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Mon afternoon). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Wed night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1307 | 2091 | 1149 | 816 | 418 | 2023 | 2069 | 2913 | 3398 | 6260 | 6604 | 4692 | 3415 | 2318 | 5700 | 7619 | 10523 | 5875 | 3121 | 1474 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:13PM0.16m | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  | | |  |  | | | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — |
 | 5:53 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 9 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 |
| kJ | 1307 | 2091 | 1149 | 816 | 418 | 2023 | 2069 | 2207 | — | — | 6604 | 4692 | 3415 | 2318 | — | — | 9489 | 5875 | 3121 | 1474 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | — | — | WSW 20 | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 450 | — | — | 38 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 6 | WSW 6 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 37 | 60 | 163 | 145 | — | 2913 | 3398 | 6260 | — | — | 21 | 152 | 5700 | 7619 | 10523 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 421 | 113 | 113 | 23 | 35 | 113 | 466 | 470 | 52 | 105 | 129 | 429 | 429 | 421 | 113 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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