Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, mate, it’s a rough one to start. The first run of the forecast is a whole lot of nothin’ for the first few days—poor surf and strong onshore winds just makin’ a mess of things. We’re talkin’ Wednesday the 11th through to the 14th, just a write-off with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions. You’d be better off stayin’ home and waxin’ your board.

The first real chance of a surf comes on Saturday the 15th, but it’s marginal at best. Cape Paterson will have a 7ft swell from the SW with a long 15-second period, but the wind is light onshore in the morning and then cross-on in the arvo. The setup is a beach and reef, so that long period groundswell might be a bit too straight for the beach break, but you might find a clean one on the reef if the tide plays ball. The water’s a touch warm for this time of year, about 57°, which is a degree above normal—just a little hint of summer hangin’ around.

Now, Sunday the 16th is the standout. And I mean *the* standout. Early morning, the wind goes glassy—dead calm—and we’ve got a clean 6ft SW swell rollin’ in with a 14-second period. The combined energy of all swells directed here is 1203, which is moderate but feels solid. That’s a proper session for the advanced crew, with perfect conditions. The NE offshore wind is the go-to here, and it’s glassy, so it’ll be clean as a whistle. The crowds can be around sometimes, but with conditions like this, you’ll be happy to share the line-up.

Monday the 17th is still decent, with a 5ft SW swell and glassy conditions in the morning, but the swell drops off a bit. The combined energy is 777, so it’s a bit weaker. Still a good sesh for the experienced surfer, but not the standout.

The rest of the week is a bit of a mixed bag. Tuesday the 18th has a light cross-offshore wind and a 5ft SW swell, with a combined energy of 1120, so it’s still clean and fun. But the swell drops further through the middle of the week—down to 3ft and 3ft—so it’s just small, ordinary waves. Even with glassy conditions on Thursday the 20th, there’s just not enough swell to get excited about.

Then we get a bit of a pulse again on Friday the 21st, with a 5ft WSW swell and a long 16-second period, clean cross-offshore wind, and a combined energy of 954. That’s a hopeful sign, but it’s still a bit underwhelming.

The real promise comes in the second week, but it’s a long way off. Monday the 24th has a big 10ft WSW swell, with a combined energy of 5669—that’s a strong, powerful swell. But the wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it’s gonna be lumpy and messy. Not for the faint of heart. Then Tuesday the 25th looks better, with a 7ft WSW swell and a clean cross-offshore wind, combined energy of 1907. That’s a solid groundswell, and while it’s over 8ft, it’s for the experts only. The period is 14 seconds, so it’ll be heavy and powerful, likely breaking a bit too straight for the beach, so the reef might be the go.

All in all, if you’re gonna pick one, make it Sunday the 16th. That’s the gold. The rest is just noise until the next pulse, but that’s too far out to be sure. Keep your eyes open.

Rusty.

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