Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Cape Paterson, and honestly, it’s a rough run for the next couple of weeks. The swell is there, but the wind just won’t play ball. We’ve got a solid 16-day window on the cards, but the first few days are a write-off. There’s a bit of a gap until we see anything worth paddling out for, so let’s get into it.

The overall pattern is frustrating: plenty of SW groundswell, but the wind is mostly cross-on or cross, and it’s blowing hard. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

Sunday morning the 23rd is the first surf we see, but it’s just a tease. Swell is 8ft from the SW at a long 14 seconds, and the energy is strong (2193). But the wind is cross-off from the NNW at 9 mph, which is actually not bad, but the wave comment says it’s marginal. I’m not calling it a standout because the quality is questionable. Sunday afternoon gets worse – cross-on at 6 mph, messy.

Monday the 24th is a flat-out no-go. Tuesday the 25th? A bit of clean cross-off wind in the morning with 5ft SW swell, but the energy is weak (801) and the rain is pouring down. Not worth it.

The whole first week is a battle. Wednesday the 26th has 7ft SW swell but onshore winds at 16 mph, making it a chop-fest. By Friday the 28th, we’ve got a massive 8ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds – very long period – and the energy is extreme (4201). But the wind is a horrible cross-on from the WSW at 19 mph, so it’s lumpy and messy. Only experts would even consider it, and even then, it’s not fun. The following days are more of the same: strong winds, messy waves. For a spot like this, which is a beach and reef setup, it’s honestly looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during these big, windy days.

Finally, we get a glimmer on Sunday the 30th. Morning has 7ft SW swell at 18 seconds, energy is still strong (3449), but the wind is cross-on at 12 mph. It’s still choppy, but it’s a step up from the chaos. Monday the 31st morning is the best of the whole run: clean, cross-off NNW wind at 19 mph, with a solid 7ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds. The energy is high (1983), and it’s clean. That’s your one true standout in the first week – a brief window of clean, powerful waves. But it’s only a morning mission, and the wind swings in the afternoon.

Then the second week gets ugly again. Strong winds, huge swell, but all onshore. By Thursday the 3rd of September, we’ve got 12ft WSW swell at 14 seconds, energy is through the roof (6869), but it’s a washing machine. That’s experts-only territory, and even then, the wind is a fresh cross, making it lumpy. Friday the 4th of September has a slightly better afternoon with 8ft WSW swell at 16 seconds and light cross-on wind at 6 mph, still marginal. Saturday the 5th is a write-off with near gale winds.

The very end of the forecast, Sunday the 6th of September, offers a surprise. Morning has 8ft WSW swell at 10 seconds (short period, so not as much grunt), but the wind is clean cross-off from the ENE at 12 mph. The energy is moderate (1567). It’s not a classic, but clean 8ft waves at Cape Paterson with offshore wind? That’s a rare treat. Monday the 7th morning is also cross-off but with a cross-shore wind, so it’s not as good.

So, the standout pick is Monday the 31st of August morning – clean, 7ft SW groundswell, 16 second period, cross-off wind. It’s the closest thing to a proper session. The second standout is Sunday the 6th of September morning – 8ft WSW, clean cross-off wind, but a shorter period. That one’s promising but less certain being so far out. The rest of the time, it’s a battle with the wind. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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