Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 20ft (6.0m), 13s period, WSW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 20ft (6.0m), 13s period, WSW swell with 13,104 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 6.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 20ft (6.0m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 20ft (6.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson.
The truth is, the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off for decent surf. We’ve got a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind, lumpy conditions, and generally poor surf quality. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong, but it’s all wasted on the wrong wind. You’ll be looking at a long stretch of mediocrity from the start of the period through to about the middle of the month.
The real standout doesn’t arrive until late in the window. The best bet by far is Tuesday morning, August 18th, at Cape Paterson. The wind is set to be a clean, light cross-offshore breeze from the NNW, at just 9 mph. The swell will be a solid 7 ft from the WSW with a period of 11 seconds, producing a moderate combined wave energy of 1314. That’s a proper groundswell, and with those clean conditions, it’s going to be well-shaped and fun. It’s a bit of a wait, but it’s the only real highlight in the whole 16-day window.
There is a notable event before that, but it’s for experts only. On Monday morning, August 10th, the swell absolutely cranks up to 20 ft from the WSW, with a very strong energy reading of 13,104. The wind is cross-shore though, and the forecast itself says it’s too big for this break. Unless you’re a seasoned charger looking for a mission, give that one a miss.
The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. Not a major issue, just a bit chilly.
So, to sum it up: hold tight for the next week and a half. The surf is mostly poor. Target that Tuesday the 18th for the cleanest, most surfable waves of the forecast.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 28mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Mon morning, light winds from the WSW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Thu morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu night, calm by Fri afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 10 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | SW 9 | SW 8 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WNW 13 | W 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 539 | 702 | 743 | 1126 | 1488 | 625 | 406 | 187 | 205 | 149 | 196 | 635 | 1155 | 1001 | 1132 | 1184 | 1018 | 701 | 561 | 1594 | 905 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on |
High Tide | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | 6:25AM0.74m | 6:01PM0.75m | 7:21AM0.73m | 6:49PM0.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | 12:12PM0.28m | 00:40AM0.04m | 1:04PM0.31m | 1:35AM0.04m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | | |  |  | | |  | | | | |  | | |  | |
 | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — |
 | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — |
mm | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 7 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
Feels °C | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | 521 | 702 | 743 | 1126 | 976 | 625 | 186 | 167 | 205 | 149 | 196 | 635 | 1155 | 1001 | 1132 | 1184 | 1018 | 701 | 561 | 330 | 568 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | SW 21 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 6 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 6 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 20 |
| kJ | 302 | — | — | — | 6 | 111 | 48 | 175 | 154 | 27 | 93 | 103 | 80 | 529 | 80 | — | 9 | 5 | 155 | 219 | 408 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 10 | — | SW 16 | WSW 20 | WSW 14 | WSW 9 | WSW 6 | SSW 5 | — | — | — | WSW 18 | — | — |
| kJ | 207 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 53 | — | 129 | 38 | 82 | 16 | 46 | 4 | — | — | — | 124 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 10 | W 8 | WSW 9 | NW 4 | WSW 11 | — | SW 9 | SW 8 | SW 6 | W 5 | W 5 | W 5 | WSW 9 | — | — | NNW 3 | — | NNW 4 | NW 6 | WNW 13 | W 7 |
| kJ | 539 | 518 | 613 | 45 | 1488 | — | 406 | 187 | 131 | 39 | 37 | 51 | 222 | — | — | 6 | — | 27 | 316 | 1594 | 905 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 126 | 114 | 114 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 117 | 54 | 5 | 23 | 52 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 227 | 119 | 117 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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