Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a mixed bag for Cape Paterson. We’ve got a whole lot of solid swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a real pain in the arse for most of it. This is a sheltered spot that needs the right conditions, and we’re not getting them for a while.

The combined energy is absolutely pumping, hitting massive four and five-digit figures like 5078, and even up to 12876, which tells you there’s a huge amount of power in the water. But with that power comes a strong cross-onshore wind from the WNW at 25 mph to start, and it just stays messy. Through Sunday 12th and Monday 13th July, we’re looking at strong cross-shore winds and a big, bumpy 13 ft swell from the WSW. The period is up around 12 to 16 seconds, so it’s a powerful groundswell, but it’s going to be a washing machine out there. This is really more of a kite surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

The water temperature is sitting at 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, with just a 0.8° anomaly – nothing unusual there.

We finally get a window of opportunity on Friday 17th July. The morning offers a 7 ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNW. That’s clean. The combined energy is still strong at 2008, but the conditions are right. This is the standout for experienced surfers. Then Friday afternoon goes glassy with a 6 ft swell – that’s beautiful. Saturday 18th July keeps it clean with a lighter 5 ft to 5 ft swell and glassy conditions in the afternoon. Those are the best couple of days on offer.

After that, the swell drops off through Sunday and Monday, with smaller 4 ft to 4 ft surf. The wind stays clean, but the energy drops to moderate levels (473 to 766). Then Tuesday 21st July sees a bump in size back to 7 ft, but the wind swings cross-shore and makes it lumpy again.

Looking further out, there’s another promising window on Saturday 25th July. The morning shows a 7 ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period, a light offshore breeze, and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The combined energy is strong at 2573. That’s a long-range standout, so keep an eye on it, but it’s a bit less certain. The week before that from the 22nd to the 24th is mostly smaller, cleaner surf, but nothing to write home about.

The last couple of days of the forecast, around the 27th, show a 10 ft SW swell coming in with a short, choppy 8-second period and strong winds – that’s no good for anyone.

So, the short story: It’s a rough start, but Friday 17th July and Saturday 18th are your best bets for a proper surf. The 25th of July looks promising too, but it’s a week and a half away, so don’t book the day off just yet.

Rusty.

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