Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 09 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
14.3° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 12 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 13s period, WSW swell with 10,579 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.5m 13s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Thu 9th Jul)4.5ft (1.4m) 16s
Best Surf 1PM (Wed 15th Jul)7.5ft (2.3m) 15s
Most Powerful 4PM (Sun 12th Jul)18ft (5.5m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s lookin’ good for Cape Paterson.

First off, the water’s at 58°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year. Nothin’ crazy, but it’s a nice little bonus.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the real action is a mixed bag. The standout window is actually Thursday morning, July 9th. We’ve got a solid 5ft SW groundswell (16-second period) rollin’ in with a light NNE cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate at 876, and the conditions are clean. That’s the pick of the early days. Thursday afternoon goes glassy as the wind drops to nothin’, but the swell backs off a touch to 4ft.

Friday, July 10th, is another good one. Morning brings a 5ft WSW swell, still long period at 15 seconds, with a clean N cross-off. The energy jumps up to 1069, so there’s a bit more push. The afternoon turns glassy again with a NW breeze and 5ft of SW groundswell. It’s gonna be a nice run.

Now, hold onto your board. Saturday, July 11th, the wind goes nuts. We’re talkin’ 22-28 mph winds from the N and NNW, which is just cross-off, but the quality drops out. The swell is small and weak. Avoid it.

Sunday, July 12th, is a write-off. Strong W and WSW winds, huge swell (13ft to 18ft), and massive energy readings (5962 to 10579). That’s not surfable for a paddle; it’s more of a kite-surfing setup with that strong cross and cross-onshore wind. The whole of next week, from the 12th through the 15th, is dominated by big, messy, wind-affected swell. It’s big for experts only, but the wind is just ruinin’ it. The 15th shows a drop to 8ft with an ESE wind, but it’s only marginal.

We get a bit of a reprieve on Thursday, July 16th – 5ft SW swell, clean E cross-off in the morning. Energy is moderate at 890. Then Friday, July 17th, morning is glassy with a 5ft SW groundswell, energy at 1129. That’s a nice little clean session.

The 18th and 19th of July are back to clean, cross-off winds with 5ft to 6ft SW groundswell. Consistent, but nothin’ huge. Then Tuesday, July 21st, morning is lookin’ promising: 7ft SW groundswell with a light N cross-off and very clean. Energy is moderate at 1868. The 22nd is similar, with 7ft SW groundswell and a clean NNE breeze. Those are the late standouts, but they’re a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.

The last few days of the window (23rd and 24th) see the swell drop back and the wind swingin’ onshore, turnin’ it messy.

So, the best bet is to hit the water Thursday morning, July 9th, for that clean 5ft SW groundswell. Friday the 10th is also a solid call. If you’re patient, the 21st and 22nd mornings look like they could be the best of the later period, but that’s a long-range call.

Stay stoked, and keep your wax on.
Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sun morning, light winds from the SW by Tue afternoon).

Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
SW
16
1.2
SW
15
1.5
SW
16
1.5
WSW
15
1.4
SW
15
1.3
WSW
15
1.1
WSW
14
0.9
WSW
14
3
W
8
4
W
13
5.5
WSW
13
4
WSW
14
3
WSW
15
3
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
16
3.5
WSW
16
3
SW
16
2.5
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
1.8
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
871
623
1172
1069
967
711
515
352
1379
5962
10579
6241
4096
3702
5081
5766
5995
4181
2722
2055
1271
Wind (km/h)
5
NNE
0
S
10
N
10
N
5
NW
15
N
35
N
45
NNW
45
WNW
55
WNW
45
W
45
NW
45
NW
50
NW
45
W
35
WSW
25
SW
20
S
15
ESE
10
SE
10
E
Wind State
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-off
High Tide
5:47PM0.74m
6:46AM0.71m
6:27PM0.73m
7:45AM0.72m
7:15PM0.72m
8:49AM0.73m
8:11PM0.71m
9:57AM0.74m
9:15PM0.70m
11:05AM0.75m
10:26PM0.70m
12:08PM0.78m
11:39PM0.71m
Low Tide
11:44AM0.24m
00:19AM0.10m
12:34PM0.28m
1:06AM0.07m
1:30PM0.31m
2:00AM0.05m
2:33PM0.34m
3:01AM0.04m
3:43PM0.35m
4:06AM0.03m
4:55PM0.34m
5:13AM0.02m
6:03PM0.31m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
mod rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:09
5:10
5:10
5:12
5:13
5:13
5:14
 mm
10
3
5
2
1
1
10
2
2
2
Temp °C
10
11
11
11
13
11
14
13
10
11
12
13
13
14
12
11
11
10
10
11
10
Feels °C
8
10
8
8
11
7
6
4
1
0
2
4
3
4
2
3
5
3
6
8
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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