
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 12s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 23 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,910 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 12s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Mon 20th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 20th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Thu 23rd Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, it's Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.
It's a pretty quiet start, to be honest. The first real chance to get wet is on Sunday, the 19th of July. We've got a 3ft swell from the WSW, pulsing with a moderate 390 units of energy. The water is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. The real kicker is the wind: glassy, from the NW. That's a major positive, making for some clean, surfable conditions, though they're pretty ordinary. The swell period is a decent 12 seconds, so there's a bit of shape to it, but at this size, it's a mellow option for the advanced crew that call this place home.
The rest of the first week goes downhill fast. Monday, the 20th, gets a cross-onshore breeze that ruins the party, and that trend continues. There's a brief window on Tuesday, the 21st, with a clean cross-offshore wind (NNW 12 mph) and a swell building to 5-6ft from the WSW (955-983 units of energy). It's marginal, but it's the best of a bad lot for that mid-week period. From Wednesday, the 22nd, through to the end of the month, the wind is a major problem. Strong onshores and cross-onshores, gusting up to 31 mph, will have the place blown out and messy. Even when the swell pumps up to 12ft or 13ft, the wind is just too ugly. That big energy on the 23rd (4619 units) and 25th (3175 units) is a kite-surfing dream, not a paddle-surfing one.
There's a bit of a reprieve on Monday, the 27th of July. The wind swings NNW at 9 mph, giving a clean cross-offshore flow, and the swell drops to a clean 4ft from the WSW (345 units). It's surfable, but very ordinary. The next few days are a write-off again with strong winds.
Looking out to the second week, things don't get much better. The wind keeps blowing, and the conditions are mostly poor. There's a chance on Sunday, the 2nd of August, with a 4ft swell from the SW, but a strong cross-shore wind (25 mph) will make it a bumpy session. The period jumps to 19 seconds on that afternoon, which is a very long groundswell, but it's onshore and messy, so not a great call for this beach-and-reef setup.
Honestly, for standouts, there's not much to yell about. The glassy session on the 19th is the best on offer for clean, small waves, and the Tuesday, the 21st, is the only other window with a bit of size and a clean wind. Everything else is a battle with the wind. For a spot that's fairly consistent, this is a frustrating run. Keep an eye on the forecasts, as these things can change, but for now, the 19th is your best bet.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Wed morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the W by Wed morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | W 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 8 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
283 | 161 | 627 | 279 | 264 | 955 | 983 | 608 | 294 | 637 | 2245 | 4619 | 4225 | 5638 | 1825 | 2290 | 2990 | 2675 | 3175 | 1682 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on |
High Tide | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | |||||||
— | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | — | 6 | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 11 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | W 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | — | SW 12 |
283 | 161 | 627 | 279 | 264 | 955 | 983 | 608 | 294 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1825 | 1344 | — | — | — | 1682 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 15 | WSW 8 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
47 | 154 | 10 | 229 | 73 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | SE 11 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
60 | 29 | 10 | 5 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 2 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | WNW 7 | WSW 8 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 9 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
— | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 261 | 637 | 2245 | 4619 | 4225 | 5638 | 1469 | 2290 | 2990 | 2675 | 3175 | 1298 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 126 | 117 | 114 | 422 | 421 | 117 | 141 | 421 | 141 | 443 | 485 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










