Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 10,539 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got the long-range outlook for Cape Paterson.
Right off the bat, I’m gonna be straight with you – the next week and a half is looking pretty grim for a paddle. We’ve got a lot of wind and swell that just isn’t lining up. The real standout, the only window that’s truly got me excited, is way down the line on Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th of August. That’s the one to circle on the calendar.
For the first few days, it’s a write-off. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th of July are seeing 8.2ft to 6.2ft of WSW swell, but it’s getting hammered by strong westerly winds. The water is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year, but the surf is just poor and lumpy. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th have some cleaner windows with cross-offshore winds from the NNW, but the swell is messy and the wind is howling – 25 mph on Tuesday morning. Not worth suiting up. Wednesday the 29th sees a massive jump in energy (10539) with a 14.8ft SW swell, but with onshore gales and rain, that’s a full-on danger zone, strictly for experts only, and even then it’s a hard pass. We get a bit of a lull through the end of July and start of August, with waist-high swell and onshore flow, nothing doing.
Now, that gap is about a week long, but hang in there. The forecast changes on Thursday the 6th of August. That morning, we’ve got a 4.6ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period, and the wind is a light offshore from the NE at 6 mph. The energy is solid (1199), and the report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the kind of clean, lined-up surf you drive for. The afternoon glassed off completely – 3 mph from the west, flat calm, with 4.3ft of that same long-period swell. It’s a beach and reef setup here, so that long period will wrap in nicely, offering some proper waves. It’s an advanced break, and it can get crowded sometimes, so get there early.
Friday the 7th of August is a nice follow-up. Clean morning again with 3.3ft of swell and light offshore ENE winds. The energy is weaker (418), but it’ll be clean and fun.
The following weekend, the 8th and 9th, sees a new pulse of swell, but it’s coming in with a strong onshore easterly wind, making it choppy and messy again. It’s a shame, because there’s some decent size (8.2ft on the 9th), but the wind will ruin it.
So, bottom line: the first week is a total dud. The clear winner is Thursday the 6th of August, with Friday the 7th as a solid backup for a few clean waves. Keep an eye on the sky, but that’s your window.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Mon night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, light winds from the SW by Fri morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 16 | SW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1913 | 1207 | 814 | 584 | 441 | 382 | 418 | 658 | 1180 | 872 | 1142 | 10539 | 3156 | 1653 | 875 | 679 | 645 | 494 | 320 | 263 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | ||||||||
 |  | |  |  |  | |  | |  | |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — |
 | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — |
mm | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 15 | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 |
| kJ | 236 | 240 | 11 | 584 | 441 | 382 | 418 | 658 | 1180 | 872 | 714 | — | — | 1653 | 875 | 679 | 645 | 494 | 320 | 263 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 10 | — | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | SSW 6 | SW 24 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 |
| kJ | — | 86 | — | 25 | 10 | 56 | — | — | — | 266 | 505 | — | — | — | — | 68 | 22 | 45 | 100 | 184 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | W 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 11 | W 24 | SE 11 | SSE 4 | WSW 11 |
| kJ | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 6 | NW 5 | WSW 11 | SW 16 | SW 9 | SSW 7 | SSW 6 | — | SW 5 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 1913 | 1207 | 814 | — | 2 | 8 | 11 | 87 | 148 | 66 | 1142 | 10539 | 3156 | 362 | 172 | — | 33 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 54 | 114 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 133 | 117 | 233 | 142 | 284 | 244 | 81 | 45 | 45 | 105 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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