Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Well, it’s a bit of a mixed bag for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. The good news is there’s plenty of swell on the cards, but the wind is going to make life interesting. Let’s break it down.

The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year—about 2° above the long-term average, so not a big shock but still a bit of a treat if you’re in a spring suit.

The first real standouts are on Wednesday the 8th and Friday the 10th. Wednesday morning is looking like a beauty: clear skies, a light NE breeze keeping it offshore, and a clean 5ft SW swell, with a very long 19-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is pumping at 1938 (moderate-to-strong). This is a reef and beach setup, so that long period might make it a bit straight at the beach, but the reef could really shine. It’s an advanced break though, so not one for the learners. Expect conditions to be clean and inviting, but crowds are sometimes a thing here, so keep an eye out.

Thursday the 9th is smaller, with a 5ft SW swell dropping to 4ft by the afternoon, but the wind goes glassy in the arvo—absolutely dead calm. That’s a major positive, giving you clean, silky surface conditions. The swell period is still solid at 15-16 seconds. Wave energy is lower at around 724-876, but for a fun, smaller session, it’s worth a look.

Friday the 10th is another strong call. Morning and afternoon both have a clean 5ft swell from the WSW, with a 15-second period and light N to NW winds that are cross-offshore. The combined energy is just over 1000 (moderate), so it’s not a monster, but the quality should be very good. This is probably the pick of the first week for a solid, user-friendly wave.

Now, watch out for the weekend. From Saturday the 11th through Monday the 13th, the wind goes absolutely bonkers. We’re talking 25-31 mph winds from the NW and W, ripping cross-shore and cross-on, creating horrible, blown-out conditions. The swell jumps up to 15ft on Sunday, but with those winds, it’s a total mess—more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. The combined energy is massive (5933-6930), but it’s not surfable for us. This stretch is a write-off.

Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th stay messy, with strong winds and 8-10ft swell. The wind is mainly cross-on, so you’re looking at lumpy, choppy, blown-out conditions. Not worth the drive.

There’s a glimmer on Thursday the 16th, with a smaller 5ft SW swell and a 14-second period, but it’s cross-shore and marginal. Not a standout.

Now, here’s the beacon in the second week. Friday the 17th is looking excellent for experienced surfers. We’ve got a 6ft SW groundswell with an 18-second period in the morning, and the wind is light and cross-off from the E. Combined energy is 2149 (strong). This is a proper, powerful, long-period swell, and with clean conditions, Cape Paterson should offer some very good waves. It’s a bit big for beginners, but for anyone advanced, it’s the best on offer in the entire outlook. Crowds are sometimes a factor, so get in early.

Saturday the 18th is still okay, with a 5ft SW swell and light NNW winds, but the period drops to 15 seconds. It’s a solid session, but not as crisp as Friday.

After that, from Sunday the 19th onwards, we’re back into strong winds and smaller, messy swell. The last few days of the outlook (21st-23rd) see 10-13ft swell with onshore and cross-on winds and short periods (8-10 seconds), which is just ugly. There’s a big gap of poor conditions after the 18th through to the end of the window.

So, to sum it up: Wednesday the 8th morning and Friday the 10th are your early bright spots, but the real standout is Friday the 17th—that’s the one to circle on the calendar. The rest is wind, rain, and chop. Keep the faith, the ocean will turn again.

Rusty.

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