
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 21 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 4,788 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 12s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 19th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: there’s a real mixed bag coming and the first proper window of decent surf isn’t until Sunday the 19th. We’ve got a few good days, but a whole lot of nasty wind and big, blown-out junk in between.
The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – nothing unusual there.
Let’s start with the good stuff. Sunday the 19th morning is the real standout. We’ve got a clean 4 ft swell from the WSW with a solid 13-second period, so there’s some proper groundswell energy in the water (combined energy of 466). The wind is a light northerly at 6 mph, making for a cross-off breeze that’ll keep the faces tidy. The break is a beach and reef setup, so that long period stuff should hold up well. Come Sunday afternoon, it goes glassy with a 3 ft swell, but it’s a bit ordinary. Still, that morning session is the one to chase.
Now, Monday the 20th turns ugly. We get a 4 ft swell with a very long 16-second period, but the wind whips up from the NW at 16 mph, cross-off but strong. It’s a shame because that swell has some real poke (combined energy of 647), but the conditions will be messy.
Tuesday the 21st is the next chance. The morning is iffy with a 5 ft swell and 12 mph NNW cross-off winds, but it’s clean. The afternoon, however, looks better – same 5 ft swell, a bit less wind at 9 mph from the NW, and the combined energy is up to 830. This is a solid option for a Tuesday afternoon paddle.
Then we hit a rough patch. From Wednesday the 22nd all the way through to Friday the 31st, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a massive swell building – up to 15 ft by the 29th – but it’s getting hammered by strong onshore and cross-onshore winds, mostly from the WSW and SW. Blown out, messy, lumpy. That’s kite-surfing territory, not much fun on a paddle board. The swell on the 23rd and 24th is massive (combined energy over 5000), but it’s just too wild and windy.
After that stormy period, Saturday the 1st of August drops right back off to a tiny 3 ft onshore slop, and Sunday the 2nd is even smaller. Not worth getting wet for.
Finally, there’s a glimmer at the end of the run. Monday the 3rd of August shows a 4 ft swell from the WSW with a very long 19-second period – that’s serious groundswell energy (combined energy of 1595). The wind is from the east at 19 mph, so it’s a strong cross-off breeze. It’s clean, but that wind is fresh, so it’s a marginal call. The afternoon is similar with a 5 ft swell. It’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it, but it’s promising.
So, bottom line: get out on Sunday the 19th morning for the cleanest, most fun waves. Tuesday the 21st afternoon is your next best bet. The rest is a whole lot of weather to sit through.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Thu afternoon, fresh winds from the SW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 8 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
402 | 283 | 161 | 627 | 236 | 268 | 955 | 824 | 608 | 294 | 707 | 2002 | 3924 | 3336 | 4278 | 4209 | 4788 | 2826 | 3573 | 3049 | 1805 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 3:26PM0.83m | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | ||||||||
7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | |
— | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | 3 | 6 | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | WSW 10 | WSW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | E 10 | WSW 18 | — | SW 14 | — | WSW 15 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 13 |
402 | 283 | 161 | 627 | 236 | 101 | 955 | 824 | 608 | 294 | 2 | 32 | — | 3336 | — | 4209 | 859 | — | — | — | 1805 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | W 5 | E 10 | N 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
48 | 47 | 154 | 10 | 229 | 268 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | E 11 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
16 | 60 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | WNW 5 | WSW 8 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | SW 11 | SW 13 | — |
— | — | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 143 | 707 | 2002 | 3924 | 2667 | 4278 | 962 | 4788 | 2826 | 3573 | 3049 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 113 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 421 | 114 | 141 | 141 | 437 | 81 | 81 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










