Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 22 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 22 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 3,566 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 16s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 16s
Most Powerful10PM (Sat 22nd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you—this 16-day run for Cape Paterson is a tough one to sell. We’ve got solid swell energy coming through for sure, with the combined energy hitting some serious numbers (4955 to start), but the wind and conditions are just fighting us every step of the way. It’s not a write-off, but you’re going to have to pick your moments, and most of the good stuff is a long way off.

The first real shot isn’t until the tail end of this run. Saturday 22 August is an absolute no-go: 12 ft SW swell sounds huge, sure, but with a nasty 30 km/h cross-onshore WSW wind, it’s a lumpy, blown-out mess at this exposed, sheltered beach and reef setup. Too big for anyone but experts, and even they won’t have a clean wave. The combined energy is massive (4955), but it’s just raw power with no finesse.

Sunday 23 August is a little better, but still only marginal. The swell drops to 8 ft SW, and we get a gentler NW cross-shore wind in the morning, but it’s still showing cross-chop. The wave comment says questionable tide conditions, so it’s not great. Afternoon the wind goes light cross-onshore, the swell is 7 ft, and the energy is still serious (1617), but tiny wind ripples spoil it.

Monday 24 August has a interesting moment: a clean cross-offshore wind from the NNW at 25 km/h, with 5 ft SW swell. The energy is moderate (822), and the break shape might hold, but the wave comment says “poor surf conditions” for the morning, so don’t get too excited. Afternoon goes cross-shore and lumpy.

From Tuesday 25 August through to Tuesday 1 September, it’s a patchy mess—light rain, rain showers, and mostly cross-on or onshore winds. The size bounces between 5 ft and 8 ft, with combined energy mostly in the hundreds to low thousands, but the conditions throughout are consistently poor or marginal. The water’s sitting at about 56°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year (anomaly of 2°F warmer, so slightly above average but nothing wild).

Now, the one standout that’s worth pointing a finger at is Saturday 5 September. That morning shapes up nicely: a light NW cross-offshore wind at 10 km/h, 8 ft WSW swell with a solid 14-second period. The energy is strong (1978), and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the one. It’s a bit bigger, so not for beginners (over 5 ft), but that long-period groundswell will wrap into Cape Paterson’s sheltered spot, and the clean wind will make those waves stand up. It’s over a week away, so keep your fingers crossed the forecast holds, but this is your best chance in the whole window.

Sunday 6 September is also okay—6 ft SW with 14 seconds and a gentle cross-shore wind, but it’s a step down from the Saturday morning.

A quick note: there’s a gap with no decent surf at all from the start until that Saturday 5 September window. That’s a solid two weeks of mostly poor conditions. For a spot like Cape Paterson that’s fairly consistent, this blank run is a rough patch, but it tends to swing back.

So, the call is: wait for Saturday 5 September morning. That’s your real shot. Everything else is a fight against the wind or the tide.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Sat
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
3
2
2
0
1
2
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
3
1
2
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
WSW
14
3
SW
14
2.3
SW
14
2.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.6
SW
15
1.7
SW
14
1.5
WSW
13
1.4
SW
13
1
WSW
10
0.5
SW
22
1.5
WSW
19
2.4
WSW
17
2.2
WSW
17
1.8
WSW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
4955
3192
1979
1617
1531
822
671
576
669
594
1045
1187
745
668
216
237
1702
3473
2604
1629
Wind (km/h)
30
WSW
20
W
15
NW
10
WSW
20
NNW
25
NNW
15
WNW
15
NE
10
SE
10
S
15
SSW
20
SW
15
SW
5
NW
15
NNW
10
WNW
20
NNW
25
WNW
15
SSW
20
WSW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
off
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
cross
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
High Tide
5:54PM0.69m
7:04AM0.66m
6:31PM0.66m
7:55AM0.63m
7:14PM0.63m
8:55AM0.62m
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
11:07AM0.63m
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
Low Tide
00:30AM0.13m
12:46PM0.34m
1:13AM0.16m
1:34PM0.37m
2:03AM0.19m
2:35PM0.40m
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
4:07AM0.22m
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:50
6:48
6:47
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:45
5:46
5:46
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
 mm
1
3
1
1
Temp °C
12
12
11
13
12
16
17
15
11
12
12
12
12
11
11
13
12
12
12
11
Feels °C
6
8
8
11
8
11
14
12
9
11
10
8
9
9
7
10
10
10
9
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
How to use the Wavefinder 
submit an eyeball surf report

Quick surf report for Cape Paterson:

join our community of surf reporters

FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website

The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Cape Paterson surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.


Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

Nearest locationNearest