Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it for Cape Paterson. The next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows where it'll come alive.

The start of the period is pretty underwhelming for a paddle. The water is sitting at 56°F which is about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's a nice touch, but the waves are just not cooperating. The first few days are a write-off with poor conditions and messy winds. The energy is weak to moderate at best, with readings like 726 (moderate) on Monday the 24th, but the cross-onshore wind just ruins it.

We get a glimmer on Tuesday morning the 25th with a clean, cross-off wind from the east at 12 mph, and a 5ft SW swell. The energy bumps up to 746 (moderate), but it's still a marginal call. The afternoon swings back to a light cross-onshore, so it's not a full day.

Wednesday the 26th is a no-go with strong onshore winds and swell climbing to 6ft, but the energy is up to 1190 (strong) – it's just a mess. Thursday the 27th is a dud, with the swell dropping to 4ft and weak energy (435). Friday the 28th sees a jump in size to 6ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, with a solid 17-second period from the WSW. The energy is very strong (2987 in the arvo), but the wind is a cross-shore, making it a bit of a battle. This is more of a kite surfer's setup than a clean paddle session.

Now for the standout. Monday morning, the 31st of August. This is the one. A 7ft SW swell with a long 18-second period, straight from the optimum direction. The energy is pumping at 2752 (very strong). The wind is light and cross-off from the NW, keeping it clean. This is a powerful, lined-up groundswell. At 7ft, it's pushing into that "experienced only" territory, especially with the juice behind it. The long period will make it break a bit straight at the beach, but the reef sections should handle it beautifully. This is a proper session for the experienced crew.

We then drop off again for a few days. Tuesday the 1st of September has a clean morning but the wind is howling at 19 mph, and the swell is only 5ft. Not great.

Then, Wednesday the 2nd of September morning is another absolute gem. Glassy conditions, an ENE wind at 3 mph, and a 7ft WSW swell. The energy is massive at 2884 (very strong). This is a clean, powerful swell with perfect conditions. At 7ft, it's still big, so it's for the experienced crew, but the glassy surface will make it as good as it gets.

A few days of small, clean swell follow, but it’s not worth a special mention. The energy drops right off to 179 (weak) by Friday the 4th.

Then the long-range looks promising. Saturday the 5th of September morning is another glassy standout. A light NE breeze, a 7ft SW swell with a 17-second period, and energy at 2688 (very strong). This is a big, clean, lined-up groundswell. It's a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but it looks like a proper dawny.

Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th see the swell keep building, with the energy hitting 3705 and 3472 respectively, but the wind picks up from the east, keeping it clean cross-off but solid. By Tuesday the 8th of September, the forecast is calling for a massive 15ft swell with 16-second periods and energy of 9437. That’s a huge, powerful system. The wind is good, but the size is just too big for the break. That one is purely for the big-wave chargers, and even then, it’s a "watch from the carpark" kind of day.

So, to wrap it up: The two standout windows are Monday morning the 31st of August, and Wednesday morning the 2nd of September. The long-range Saturday the 5th of September also looks fantastic. The rest is either small, messy, or too big.

Rusty.

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