Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 6,864 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s coming.
First week is a bit of a heartbreaker. We’ve got swell coming, but the wind is a total bastard. From the 23rd to the 25th of July, there’s a big 10ft to 12ft SW swell, but it’s getting hammered by onshore and cross-on winds. The wave energy is through the roof – between 3139 and 6061 (moderate to very strong energy) – but it’s a mess. That’s not for a surfboard, that’s a kite session.
Things start to look up around the 28th of July. The wind goes cross-off from the NNW, and we’re still looking at a solid 10ft SW groundswell with a very long 16 second period. That’s a lot of water, and at Cape Paterson (a beach and reef setup), that long period means the beach breaks will be a bit straight, but the reef might have some nice lines. The water temp is about normal for this time of year, so a 3/2 wetsuit is fine.
The real gem, the one to get excited about, is Friday the 31st of July into Saturday the 1st of August. On Friday morning, we’ve got a clean 5ft SW swell, 14 second period, with a light 5 km/h Easterly cross-off breeze. The wave energy is a solid 1463 (moderate energy). That’s going to be beautiful. Then Saturday the 1st of August, the morning sees a 6ft SW swell with a light 15 km/h offshore breeze from the NE, and by the afternoon, it goes glassy. N.N.W. at 5 km/h, flat calm. That afternoon session on Saturday is the pick of the litter. A 5.5ft swell with 13 seconds of period is perfect for a smooth ride. Keep in mind, Cape Paterson can get a few heads in the water, so get there early.
After that, it falls apart again. The first week of August is looking like a dud with strong winds and the swell dropping off. Don’t bank on the second week.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Tue afternoon, strong winds from the W by Thu afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Thu night, light winds from the W by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 7 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 9 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 268 | 955 | 878 | 534 | 294 | 372 | 1301 | 3139 | 4302 | 2605 | 6051 | 4201 | 3937 | 2801 | 2400 | 1600 | 754 | 662 | 550 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | ||||||
 |  | | | |  |  | | | | |  | | | |  | | |  | |
 | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | E 10 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | — | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 |
| kJ | 268 | 955 | 878 | 534 | 294 | 2 | 13 | — | — | — | — | 1860 | 780 | 777 | 273 | — | 754 | 662 | 550 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 8 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | WSW 8 | — | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | SW 11 |
| kJ | 75 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 58 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 166 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | — | NW 4 | WNW 6 | WSW 7 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 9 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | NW 4 | — | NW 4 |
| kJ | 8 | 8 | — | 34 | 170 | 372 | 1301 | 3139 | 4302 | 2605 | 6051 | 4201 | 3937 | 2801 | 2400 | 1600 | 8 | — | 20 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 113 | 114 | 113 | 114 | 493 | 443 | 117 | 141 | 114 | 114 | 54 | 23 | 23 | 41 | 35 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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