Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 29 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 4 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,492 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Fri 4th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 4th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s take a look at Cape Paterson in feet and miles per hour. The next couple of weeks are mostly a tough one for a clean paddle – wind and chop rule the roost until one golden window late in the game.
From Sunday the 30th of August, it’s all cross-onshore and choppy. Swell runs from about 6ft to 8ft, mostly SW or WSW, with combined energy readings between 1477 and 3055 – that’s moderate energy – but the wind’s junking everything up. Monday afternoon is marginal, but the breeze is still onshore. Tuesday the 1st of September sees NW winds at 25 mph, cross-offshore, and the waves clean up, but it’s a fresh breeze and tough paddling.
Into the second week, the swell gets bigger. Wednesday the 2nd of September has 8ft WSW swell with a 14-second period, but the wind’s cross-onshore and lumpy. Thursday the 3rd blows up with 11ft to 10ft swell and near-gale onshore winds – blown out. Friday the 4th of September afternoon offers a brief hope with NNW winds at 9 mph, cross-offshore, and 8ft WSW swell at a long 16 seconds. It’s clean but only marginal – not a standout.
The real gem arrives on Friday the 11th of September afternoon. Wind drops to just 3 mph from the WSW – glassy flat. You’ve got a 7ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period, combined energy of 2693 (moderate). This is the best of the run. That period and direction at Cape Paterson, with its beach and reef mix, suits experienced surfers – the waves will have shape and punch, though the long period can be a bit straight on the beach. But glassy? Yes, please. That’s your session.
The rest is mostly cross-shore or onshore mess, with swell dropping under 5ft by Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th of September. Not worth the drive.
There’s a solid 11-day rough patch before that Friday afternoon. Water temp’s about average for this time of year. If you’re after clean surf, that Friday the 11th of September afternoon is your one clear shot. Otherwise, with all that cross-shore wind and decent swell, the kites are gonna have a field day.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the WSW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | W 10 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1034 | 987 | 1261 | 1459 | 1307 | 2091 | 1149 | 816 | 1076 | 2508 | 2741 | 2834 | 3722 | 4307 | 5374 | 4562 | 3644 | 2497 | 1786 | 1721 | 1254 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | 1:58PM0.74m | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:36PM0.22m | 7:45AM0.18m | 8:13PM0.16m | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | | |  | | | |  | |  | | |  |  | | | |
 | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — |
 | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 1034 | 987 | 1261 | 1459 | 1307 | 2091 | 1149 | 816 | 407 | 449 | 2741 | 2834 | 805 | — | 5374 | 4562 | 3644 | 2497 | 1786 | 1721 | 1254 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 20 | WSW 18 | SW 22 | SW 19 | — | — | WSW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 22 |
| kJ | 99 | 98 | 31 | 18 | 450 | — | — | 38 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 12 | WSW 6 | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 5 | W 10 | WSW 15 | — | NNW 5 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | — | NW 4 | — | NNW 4 | NW 5 | — | — |
| kJ | — | 816 | 90 | — | — | — | 40 | 74 | 1076 | 2508 | — | 40 | 3722 | 4307 | — | 9 | — | 11 | 41 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 41 | 126 | 52 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 142 | 148 | 117 | 114 | 113 | 141 | 141 | 117 | 52 | 23 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 117 | 467 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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