Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 20 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6° C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 20 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 3,420 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 13s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 13s
Most Powerful 1PM (Sat 22nd Aug)8ft (2.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are going to test your patience if you’re chasing proper waves. There’s plenty of swell on the way, but the wind and the conditions are going to be fighting us for most of it. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf to get through before we finally see something worth paddling out for.

Looking at the big picture, we start with a bit of lumpy, cross-shore chop that just isn’t going to do the job. The energy in the water is there – with moderate wave energy (481 to 564) – but the southwest swell is being chopped up by a fresh northwesterly breeze. This is a beach and reef setup, and with conditions like that, it’s more about survival than style. You’re better off staying on the sand for the first few days.

Friday and Saturday see the swell build solidly – we’re talking 4ft on Friday morning, ramping up to a powerful 10ft by Saturday afternoon. The energy numbers are telling the story too, climbing through strong (1316 to 1882) and into very strong territory (3874 to 5118). But honestly, with fresh cross-onshore winds and a lumpy, choppy mess, this is going to be a washing machine. That kind of size and wind on a beach and reef setup is a recipe for a beating. It’s not a surfer’s wave at that point; it’s more interesting for the kite crew. Best to sit this one out.

Sunday offers a little let-up with the swell easing, but it’s still marginal. The wind lightens up, but it’s still onshore, so you’re looking at small, bumpy waves. Monday brings a fresh cross-offshore breeze, which will clean the surface up nicely, but the swell has dropped back to a modest 5ft and the energy has faded back to moderate (843). It’s a tease – clean but not really pushing.

Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty forgettable. Small, inconsistent swell with a mixed bag of winds. We need to wait for the real window.

Now, here’s your standout. Mark Friday, August 28th on your calendar. The forecast is for a light offshore breeze from the northeast – that’s glassy, clean conditions – and the swell is up to 8ft from the southwest with a very long period of 17 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, folks. The wave energy is pumping at 3057. Yes, the size is getting up there, but it’s still fit for experienced surfers who know their way around. That kind of period and direction is going to set up beautiful lines at Cape Paterson. This is the day we’ve been waiting for. The morning window looks like the pick, as the wind shifts onshore later.

The rest of that weekend and into the following week drops back down. Saturday (Aug 29) has some clean cross-offshore conditions with smaller swell, which is fine for a cruise, but the magic is gone. The following week’s forecast gets smaller and more inconsistent, with the wind swinging around a lot. There are brief clean windows here and there, but nothing that’ll get your heart racing. The swell energy is weak (274 to 441) and the waves are pretty ordinary.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a loss for the most part. Don’t get tempted by the big numbers – they’re not your friend with that wind. Your best bet is the morning of the 28th. That’s your window for something special. After that, it’s a waiting game again.

Stay patient, and stay stoked.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu night, light winds from the WNW by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Mon morning, calm by Tue night).

Thursday
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
WSW
13
0.8
WSW
13
0.9
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
16
1.9
WSW
14
2.5
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
15
2.5
WSW
14
2.2
WSW
14
1.8
WSW
13
1.8
WSW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.8
WSW
12
1.7
WSW
13
1.7
WSW
13
1.9
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
158
198
294
740
1443
3317
3348
3271
2765
1886
1100
1608
834
799
904
890
983
1447
1080
711
626
Wind (km/h)
25
NW
20
WNW
30
WNW
30
NW
25
WNW
30
WNW
30
WNW
25
W
20
W
15
NW
10
W
25
NNW
35
NW
25
W
15
WSW
10
SSW
15
SW
10
W
10
NW
15
WSW
10
NNW
Wind State
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross
on
cross-off
High Tide
4:46PM0.76m
5:39AM0.72m
5:20PM0.73m
6:20AM0.69m
5:54PM0.69m
7:04AM0.66m
6:31PM0.66m
7:55AM0.63m
7:14PM0.63m
8:55AM0.62m
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
Low Tide
10:50AM0.23m
11:13PM0.08m
11:28AM0.27m
11:51PM0.11m
12:05PM0.30m
00:30AM0.13m
12:46PM0.34m
1:13AM0.16m
1:34PM0.37m
2:03AM0.19m
2:35PM0.40m
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
part cloud
cloud
rain showers
cloud
cloud
cloud
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
rain showers
light rain
part cloud
clear
rain showers
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:58
6:56
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:50
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:44
5:45
5:45
5:46
5:46
5:47
5:49
 mm
3
1
1
1
4
Temp °C
14
15
12
12
13
12
12
13
13
13
13
13
15
16
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
Feels °C
9
10
7
6
7
6
5
7
8
9
10
8
9
11
9
9
7
7
8
7
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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