Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 6 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 4,043 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sun 5th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
G'day, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Cape Paterson is serving up over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag, and honestly, the start of the period is a right-off. We've got a run of rough, onshore wind days to kick things off – Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th are best left for something else, with strong SW winds and messy, poor surf. The water's sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 58°.
The first real chance of a paddle comes up on Monday the 6th. Early morning we'll see clean 4ft SW groundswell with a period of 15 seconds, and a light offshore NE breeze (10 km/h). It's small but clean, with moderate wave energy (766). The break itself can get a crowd sometimes, so keep that in mind for a fun little session on the beach and reef.
The standout, no question, is Wednesday the 8th. The morning session is looking prime. You've got a clean 5ft SW groundswell with a very long 19-second period pushing in. That's proper groundswell energy, and with an offshore E breeze (15 km/h) and moderate energy (1865), it's going to be well-shaped and clean. Afternoon still looks fun, with a slightly bigger 6ft swell but a cross-off wind. That's your pick of the first week.
Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th offer clean, smaller windows in the mornings with offshore to cross-off breezes, but the swell drops a bit. The 10th has a very good forecast for the morning with 5ft SW swell and light offshore wind. Come Saturday the 11th, it's tiny but clean again.
Then we hit a rough patch. From Sunday the 12th through to Thursday the 17th, things turn ugly on the wind front. There are some huge, stormy swells in there (Monday the 14th has a 13ft, short period cross-onshore mess, for instance) but terrible winds keep it all blown out and unrideable. A solid week of poor conditions there.
The one to watch, though it's a long way out, is Friday the 17th. That's the big one. We're looking at an enormous 15ft WSW swell with a long 15-second period and a cross-off NNW wind (35 km/h), shaking loose an incredible 9679 combined energy (very strong wave energy -9679- units unspecified for imperial use, but suffice to say it's massive). However, the software reckons it's just too big for this break. If you're a seasoned charger, it might be your day, but for most, that's a massive cleanup set. Saturday the 18th still has big 10ft+ swell but gets messy with strong cross-shore winds.
So, for the best all-rounder, lock in Wednesday the 8th. The standout big wave day is Friday the 17th, but only for experts and with a big 'but'.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Sun afternoon). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Sat morning, calm by Mon morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2866 | 2140 | 3194 | 3770 | 2630 | 1513 | 757 | 513 | 308 | 861 | 823 | 773 | 1268 | 2216 | 1350 | 860 | 623 | 1111 | 1005 | 851 | 656 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-on | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:03PM0.76m | 2:53AM0.64m | 3:36PM0.77m | 3:36AM0.65m | 4:07PM0.77m | 4:20AM0.66m | 4:39PM0.76m | 5:05AM0.68m | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:14PM0.26m | 9:02AM0.14m | 9:51PM0.23m | 9:40AM0.16m | 10:25PM0.20m | 10:19AM0.18m | 11:00PM0.17m | 11:00AM0.21m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — |
 | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | — | — | 3194 | 3770 | 2630 | 1513 | 757 | 513 | 308 | 861 | 823 | 773 | 1268 | 2216 | 1350 | 860 | 623 | 1111 | 1005 | 851 | 656 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 5 | SE 5 | SW 20 | ESE 8 | ESE 12 | ESE 8 | SW 14 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SW 14 | ESE 9 | SE 12 | ESE 11 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 3 | 60 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 597 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 238 | 17 | 6 | 11 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 19 | — | — | SE 12 | SE 12 | — | — | SE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 13 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | — | — | 5 | 35 | — | — | 19 | 10 | 9 | 7 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 6 | SE 5 | SE 4 | ESE 5 | NE 3 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | — | — | — | ESE 12 | ESE 4 | ESE 3 | E 3 | — | — | — | — | ENE 5 |
| kJ | 2866 | 2140 | 201 | 27 | 26 | 39 | 2 | 8 | 3 | — | — | — | 27 | 17 | 9 | 5 | — | — | — | — | 5 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 113 | 126 | 81 | 45 | 66 | 49 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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