Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 15 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
0.7° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period, SW swell with 2,233 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Fri 17th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Best Surf 4AM (Fri 17th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Most Powerful 1PM (Thu 16th Jul)7.5ft (2.3m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. The first few days are a write-off, with onshore winds and messy swell that’s not worth paddling out for. The solid groundswell through the middle of the period is let down by strong winds, making it a challenge even for the experienced crew. The best window looks like a short, glassy window on Sunday the 26th, but even that’s got a catch.

The first real chance to get wet comes on Friday the 17th. The morning is looking clean with a 6ft SW groundswell, period out at 16 seconds, and a light NNW cross-offshore breeze. That’s a decent long-period groundswell, which means good shape but longer waits between sets. Combined energy is strong at 1694. It’s a solid option for advanced surfers at this exposed beach and reef setup, though you’ll likely have company – crowds are sometimes there. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Saturday the 18th drops off a bit. Swell is 6ft from the WSW, period dropping to 14 seconds, but the wind goes cross-shore and the energy is still moderate at 1332. It’s surfable but nothing special. Sunday the 19th morning has a lighter 4ft WSW swell, period 12 seconds, and a cross-offshore breeze from the N, keeping it clean. Energy is moderate (562). The afternoon goes glassy, but the swell drops to 3ft, so it’s small and ordinary.

The middle of the week from Monday 20th to Thursday 23rd is a run of poor to marginal conditions. Winds pick up, swell drops, and the energy is weak to moderate. Not worth planning around.

Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th see a serious spike in swell, with 8ft and 7ft from the SW on the 24th, but it’s hammered by strong onshore and cross-onshore winds, creating messy conditions. The combined energy is very strong (3295 and 1960), but the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Only for the hardcore, and even then, it’s nasty.

Now, the standout window: Sunday the 26th morning. The swell is 6ft from the WSW, period 13 seconds, with glassy conditions and a light WNW breeze. The combined energy is strong at 1126, and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the pick of the whole 16 days. The water temp is about average for the time of year. It’s an advanced break, and with that solid groundswell and glass, it’ll be a special session. The afternoon turns onshore and messy again, so get in early.

Monday the 27th morning has a similar 8ft WSW swell, period 12 seconds, with a cross-offshore NNW breeze, so it’s clean. But the energy is high (1576), and the wind picks up strong through the day, so it’s a marginal option. Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th mornings offer clean conditions with offshore or cross-offshore winds, with swell around 5ft to 7ft, but the energy drops off, and the quality is just okay.

The final few days from Thursday 30th to Friday 31st are back to onshore winds and rain, with strong swell but poor conditions. Not worth a look.

Overall, the best bet is that Sunday morning the 26th – glassy, 6ft SW groundswell, and clean. Get it while it’s good.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed night, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wed
22
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
0
2
1
2
3
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.2
SW
14
2.3
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
2
SW
15
1.9
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
1.8
SW
15
1.8
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
12
1.2
WSW
16
0.7
SW
15
1.2
WSW
14
1.1
WSW
13
1.4
WSW
14
1.4
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1.2
WSW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1949
2203
1994
1695
1694
1737
1396
1332
1018
711
481
278
203
688
232
557
396
714
648
477
405
Wind (km/h)
20
W
15
WSW
15
WSW
5
WSW
15
NNW
10
W
10
NNW
15
NW
5
W
10
N
10
N
5
NW
10
N
25
NW
20
NW
20
NW
20
NNW
15
NW
20
NW
10
NW
5
WSW
Wind State
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
on
High Tide
11:39PM0.71m
1:05PM0.80m
00:49AM0.73m
1:56PM0.82m
1:53AM0.74m
2:43PM0.83m
2:53AM0.75m
3:26PM0.83m
3:48AM0.75m
4:06PM0.82m
4:39AM0.74m
4:44PM0.80m
5:28AM0.72m
5:21PM0.76m
Low Tide
6:17AM0.02m
7:06PM0.26m
7:17AM0.03m
8:03PM0.21m
8:12AM0.05m
8:55PM0.15m
9:03AM0.08m
9:43PM0.11m
9:51AM0.13m
10:28PM0.09m
10:36AM0.17m
11:11PM0.08m
11:19AM0.22m
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:31
7:31
7:31
7:30
7:28
7:28
7:28
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:17
5:19
 mm
Temp °C
13
12
12
12
11
12
11
11
12
11
12
13
13
12
14
12
12
15
14
12
12
Feels °C
10
9
9
10
8
11
9
9
11
9
10
12
10
7
9
7
7
11
9
10
11
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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