Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 18s period, SW swell with 7,518 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.2m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for our patch.
Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is a real struggle. We’ve got a massive 16-day window, but the first solid chunk of it is looking pretty grim. From now until about the 22nd of September, we’re dealing with a lot of junk. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and when it’s not, the swell is either too small or the energy is just a mess. There’s a run of days there where the wave energy is moderate to strong, but the scores are low because the wind just wrecks it. For a spot like Cape Paterson, which is a bit sheltered, that strong onshore flow is a killer.
Let’s talk about the water temp. It’s sitting at 57°F right now, which is about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year. It’s a touch warmer than you’d expect, but nothing crazy.
Now, the one true standout. It’s a long way off, but it’s the only real light in the tunnel. Mark your calendars for the morning of Tuesday, the 22nd of September. That morning, we’re looking at a solid 7ft of SW groundswell, with a very long period of 17 seconds. The wind is going to be a light, cross-offshore breeze from the north, making for clean conditions. The combined energy of all swells is a strong 2425, and the forecast is calling it excellent for experienced surfers. That’s our best shot. The long period means the sets will be well-spaced, with plenty of power, but it might be a bit tricky on the beach. Cape Paterson (Victoria) is a beach and reef setup, so that long period groundswell should wrap in nicely. Expect crowds, as it’s a spot that can get busy.
The following morning, Wednesday the 23rd, is also worth a mention, but it’s a step down. You’ve got a massive 13ft of SW swell coming in, but with a period of 19 seconds – that’s a very long period. The wind is a moderate cross-onshore, which will chop it up, and the combined energy is a whopping 15422. It’s a monster, but it’s going to be messy and challenging. Only for the absolute experts.
So, the long and short of it is: suffer through the first ten days of wind, and then get ready for a real taste of winter on the 22nd. It’s a long-range call, so keep your fingers crossed, but it’s the only real option on the table.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Sun afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSE on Sat afternoon, fresh winds from the WSW by Mon night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 7866 | 6930 | 4751 | 3293 | 2418 | 1801 | 1994 | 2434 | 2028 | 1716 | 1306 | 857 | 860 | 496 | 384 | 434 | 2228 | 2362 | 2682 | 2130 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | 11:20AM0.70m | 11:34PM0.68m | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | 1:03PM0.74m | 1:37AM0.75m | 1:46PM0.75m | 2:25AM0.78m | 2:25PM0.76m | 3:08AM0.79m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | 4:46AM0.17m | 5:30PM0.25m | 5:53AM0.18m | 6:29PM0.19m | 6:52AM0.18m | 7:20PM0.13m | 7:43AM0.18m | 8:04PM0.09m | 8:28AM0.18m | 8:44PM0.06m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | SW 16 | SW 13 | SW 14 |
| kJ | — | 6930 | 4751 | 3293 | 2418 | 1801 | 1994 | 2434 | 2028 | 1716 | 1306 | 857 | 860 | 496 | 384 | 434 | — | 129 | 2682 | 2130 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | SSW 4 | S 4 | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 15 | 37 | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 36 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | WNW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | — | — |
| kJ | 7866 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 14 | 31 | 13 | 13 | 2228 | 2362 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 493 | 1459 | 81 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 105 | 64 | 117 | 105 | 45 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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