Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 10 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 14 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 18s period, SW swell with 5,404 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 14) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Fri 14th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright mate, Cape Paterson over the next couple weeks – bit of a mixed bag. Water’s sitting at about 57°F, roughly a degree warmer than usual for August, so nothing wild.
First week is pretty ordinary. We’ve got decent size swell coming through from the 10th onward – 6ft to 10ft from the WSW-SW – but the wind’s all over the shop, mostly cross or onshore, making it lumpy and messy. Wave energy is strong to very strong (2300 to 5896), but it’s wasted with that breeze. Cape Paterson likes a NE offshore, and you’re not getting it. Honestly, unless you want to kite, give the first few days a miss.
The real window is Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th. Tuesday morning brings 5ft of WSW swell at 14 seconds, combined energy 1083 (moderate), with a light N cross-offshore – clean. Tuesday arvo goes glassy with a 5 km/h S breeze and 4ft swell. Wednesday is even better: 4ft to 4ft of SW swell at 16 seconds, glassy or clean both sessions. That’s the pick of the period.
After that, the swell drops right off – 20th and 21st only 2ft to 3ft, weak energy – not worth paddling out. Then from the 22nd you get a pulse back to 7ft to 8ft, but the wind’s cross-off or cross again so it’s average. Sunday the 23rd has 8ft WSW at 17 seconds and cleaner wind but it’s a long way out, so fingers crossed.
Get in on the 18th and 19th if you can.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Mon morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Mon morning). Mainly strong winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 11°C on Thu morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Thu morning, light winds from the SSW by Sat morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2300 | 2375 | 1141 | 785 | 1176 | 929 | 3985 | 976 | 1692 | 4213 | 4108 | 3463 | 5076 | 3694 | 3118 | 2263 | 2021 | 1672 | 1285 | 1170 | 833 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:46PM0.71m | 9:32AM0.71m | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | 12:43PM0.76m | 00:44AM0.72m | 1:33PM0.78m | 1:47AM0.74m | 2:17PM0.80m | 2:42AM0.76m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | 6:04AM0.09m | 6:50PM0.23m | 7:05AM0.10m | 7:44PM0.17m | 7:58AM0.11m | 8:33PM0.12m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  |  | | | | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | |
 | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — |
 | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:39 | — |
mm | 8 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 11 |
Feels °C | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | NW 4 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 |
| kJ | 2300 | 5 | 1141 | 785 | 1176 | 929 | 865 | 976 | 1692 | 4213 | 1788 | 3463 | 5076 | 3694 | 3118 | 2263 | 2021 | 1672 | 1285 | 1170 | 833 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SSW 6 | SW 14 | WSW 7 | NW 6 | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 8 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 507 | 36 | 54 | 811 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ESE 10 | — | ESE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | N 5 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 31 | — | 9 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | SW 17 | SW 7 | W 7 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | WSW 8 | — | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 12 | 2375 | 397 | 233 | 25 | 99 | 3985 | 640 | 620 | — | 4108 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 105 | 81 | 114 | 113 | 23 | 142 | 227 | 114 | 114 | 114 | 54 | 5 | 41 | 113 | 39 | 45 | 45 | 20 | 20 | 45 | 44 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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