Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at the charts for the Cape Paterson region. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. The next week and a half is mostly a write-off, with messy, choppy conditions and strong winds dominating the picture. We’re looking at a long, frustrating gap of poor surf before anything decent comes into play.

The water temperature is sitting at 57°F, which is about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year. It’s noticeable, but not freakish.

Let’s break it down. The first few days are a total loss. Saturday afternoon the 29th kicks off with cloudy skies and a 12 mph cross-onshore wind from the WSW. Swell is at 5 feet from the WSW with a 14-second period, but the energy is weak (994) and the wind is just chopping it all up. Sunday and Monday hold similar junk – 6 feet to 6 feet swell, but always cross-onshore and poor. There’s a flicker of hope on Monday afternoon with a “marginal” rating, but it’s only a 1 out of 10, so don’t get excited.

Tuesday the 1st of September is a weird one. The wind swings cross-offshore, and the surf is clean, but the wind is a 25 mph strong breeze. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddling. The swell drops to 5 – 5 feet, and the energy is moderate (854-1149), but it’s just too wild for a comfortable session.

Then Wednesday the 2nd sees a jump in swell to 8 – 8 feet from the WSW, with energy climbing into the strong range (3012-3304). The wind is still a problem, though, and it’s rated as marginal at best. Thursday the 3rd is a big, messy mess with 10 feet swell and a fresh breeze making it lumpy and blown out.

The first real standout doesn’t appear until Friday, September 4th, in the afternoon. This is the best this forecast has to offer. The swell is a solid 7 feet from the WSW, with a long 15-second period, and the energy is strong (2111). The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-offshore breeze from the NNW, making for clean, lined-up waves. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The only downside is that Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, and a long-period swell like this can sometimes break a bit too straight on the beach, but the reef will handle it well. Crowds are possible here, so be prepared for some company.

After that, Saturday the 5th is a mess again with 13 feet windswell and a 9-second period under a strong breeze, and it just gets worse from there. The whole second week is a mix of big, lumpy, and cross-onshore days. There’s another promising window much later, around Saturday, September 12th, in the morning. The swell is a solid 10 feet from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, and the wind is a slight 3 mph cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. That’s clean and powerful. The energy is very strong (5051), making this one for experienced surfers. It’s a long way out, though, so take that forecast with a grain of salt.

So, to sum it up: suffer through the junk until the afternoon of Friday, September 4th, for the best clean, powerful swell in the first week. The second week is a gamble, but the morning of Saturday, September 12th, looks promising if you’re an expert looking for a big, clean groundswell.

Rusty.

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