Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 11,197 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 8 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sat 8th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Mon 10th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Mon 10th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.
It’s a slow start. The next several days are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. Tuesday the 4th has a solid 7ft to 8ft swell from the WSW with a period of 11 seconds, but the wind is all wrong – a strong cross and onshore breeze, and the combined wave energy is pumping at 1204 to 1356, but the conditions are just plain ugly. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are even worse, with messy cross-shore winds and poor surf. Friday the 7th sees a bit of improvement by the afternoon, with a gentle cross-onshore breeze and a 5ft swell from the SW (period 15 seconds), but it’s still marginal at best. Saturday the 8th is the first real glimmer of hope. We’ve got a moderate breeze that’s cross-offshore, clean conditions, and a 5ft to 5ft swell from the WSW with a long 16-second period. The combined energy is strong at 1184 to 1246. It’s still only a 2/10, but for this spot, that’s the best we’ve seen.
Then things get weird. Sunday the 9th is blown out by a strong breeze. Monday the 10th brings a massive 16ft to 18ft swell from the WSW, with wave energy reading 7711 to 11197 – that’s seriously powerful. The wind is fresh and cross-shore, but that’s just too much wave for Cape Paterson; it’s only for experts, and even then it’s a handful.
The standout window is actually Saturday the 15th. The morning is looking mint: clear skies, a slight air (basically glassy), a clean 5ft swell from the SW with a 14-second period, and combined energy of 714. The water temperature anomaly is about average for the time of year. That’s the pick of the whole forecast – a proper clean session with no wind. Sunday the 16th also offers clean cross-offshore winds and a consistent 5ft swell from the SW, but the energy is a bit lower.
Looking further out, Wednesday the 19th morning has a solid 7ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, a light offshore breeze from the NNE, and a 3/10 rating. The combined energy is 1617. That could be a good one if the long-range forecast holds, but it’s a bit of a wait.
For the second week, there’s not much else. Monday the 17th is messy, Tuesday the 18th is average. Basically, the best bet is Saturday the 15th morning – that’s your chance for a clean, user-friendly wave. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so get in early.
Signing off, Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 30mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the N by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | SW 20 | SW 10 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 680 | 1204 | 1356 | 600 | 186 | 328 | 249 | 149 | 196 | 628 | 1056 | 881 | 807 | 1184 | 1239 | 818 | 647 | 595 | 903 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | 6:25AM0.74m | 6:01PM0.75m | 7:21AM0.73m | 6:49PM0.73m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | 12:12PM0.28m | 00:40AM0.04m | 1:04PM0.31m | 1:35AM0.04m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  | | |  | | | | |  |  | |  | | | | |
 | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — |
mm | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | 7 | 5 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | -1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 5 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 680 | 1204 | 1356 | 600 | 186 | 167 | 249 | 38 | 196 | 628 | 1056 | 881 | 807 | 1184 | 1239 | 818 | 647 | 595 | 693 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NNW 4 | SW 21 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 10 | SSW 6 | SW 6 | SW 18 | — | NW 4 | — | W 10 | SW 18 | WSW 20 |
| kJ | — | — | 4 | 111 | 48 | 175 | 155 | 149 | 68 | 96 | 50 | 59 | 323 | — | 7 | — | 8 | 83 | 664 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 19 | E 13 | SW 16 | WSW 20 | SE 8 | WSW 7 | WSW 19 | SSW 7 | — | — | — | E 5 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 131 | 3 | 129 | 39 | 3 | 47 | 465 | 26 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 9 | NW 4 | — | — | SW 6 | SW 10 | SW 6 | NW 4 | W 5 | WSW 6 | — | — | — | N 3 | — | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | WNW 5 | W 8 |
| kJ | 611 | 40 | — | — | 184 | 328 | 83 | 8 | 67 | 216 | — | — | — | 3 | — | 59 | 195 | 133 | 903 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 114 | 120 | 126 | 23 | 117 | 117 | 23 | 5 | 52 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 429 | 120 | 284 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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