Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 12 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
14.1° C
0.8° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 9,942 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 18) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Thu 16th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Best Surf10PM (Thu 16th Jul)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Most Powerful 7PM (Mon 13th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with ya – the outlook for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days is a long, frustrating wait for the real goods. The first week is a write-off with big, messy, windy surf, but there’s a serious payoff waiting in the second week if you’re patient.

We start off Sunday the 12th and it’s ugly. A big 13ft to 15ft WSW swell is rolling in but it’s got a 31 mph NW wind smashing it, making for poor, crossed-up conditions. The combined energy is massive (3829), but it’s just not rideable. That same pattern sticks through Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th – still huge, still messy, with the energy peaking at a crazy 13934 on Monday arvo. The water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, the swell starts to drop but it’s still cross-onshore and lumpy. We’re talking 7ft to 6ft SW swell, but the wind is still spoiling it. The energy’s dropping (down to 1407), but it’s still only marginal at best. You’d be wasting your time.

Then things finally turn on Friday the 17th. There’s a 7ft SW swell (period 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell) and the wind goes light and glassy. Friday arvo is a standout – glassy conditions, clean lines, and the energy is still solid (1799). The water is a bit better for the reefs around here, but this will be good quality at the beach and reef setup. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is the first real session.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th back off a bit – 5ft to 3ft, still clean, but the energy is low (down to 494). Good for a longboard or a cruise, but not the highlight.

Now, the real one to circle on your calendar is Saturday the 25th of July. The morning session is the pick of the entire forecast. A 7ft WSW swell, period pushing 17 seconds (very long interval), and a light offshore NE breeze at 6 mph. The combined energy is 2374, and the call is for excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers. This is a big, powerful swell – over 7ft, so it’s for the crew who know what they’re doing. The crowd is listed as “sometimes” here, so you might have a few others on it, but it’s worth it. That Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th keep the quality going with 7ft+ clean, glassy conditions, a solid run of good surf.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a total bust. Don’t bother. The second week, especially Friday the 17th and the standout Saturday the 25th, is where it’s at. Be patient, the wait is worth it.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sun morning, moderate winds from the NW by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
WSW
11
4.5
WSW
12
4
WSW
13
4
WSW
15
4
WSW
16
4.5
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
16
3.5
WSW
15
3
SW
15
2.4
SW
14
2.2
SW
14
1.9
SW
14
1.9
SW
14
1.9
SW
15
1.7
SW
14
2
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
1.7
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
14
1.4
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
3829
5311
5428
7593
8333
8464
5766
5119
3573
2423
1799
1349
1407
1446
1179
1983
1799
1244
915
690
520
Wind (km/h)
50
NW
45
WNW
45
WNW
45
NW
50
NW
35
W
35
W
30
WSW
25
WSW
20
WNW
15
W
15
W
15
NW
10
W
5
N
10
NNW
5
SW
10
N
15
NNW
10
NW
15
N
Wind State
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
glassy
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
High Tide
8:11PM0.71m
9:57AM0.74m
9:15PM0.70m
11:05AM0.75m
10:26PM0.70m
12:08PM0.78m
11:39PM0.71m
1:05PM0.80m
00:49AM0.73m
1:56PM0.82m
1:53AM0.74m
2:43PM0.83m
2:53AM0.75m
Low Tide
2:33PM0.34m
3:01AM0.04m
3:43PM0.35m
4:06AM0.03m
4:55PM0.34m
5:13AM0.02m
6:03PM0.31m
6:17AM0.02m
7:06PM0.26m
7:17AM0.03m
8:03PM0.21m
8:12AM0.05m
8:55PM0.15m
light rain
mod rain
light rain
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
light rain
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:31
7:31
7:31
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:12
5:13
5:13
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:15
 mm
2
6
4
3
6
1
Temp °C
12
12
13
14
14
12
13
13
13
12
13
13
13
14
14
12
12
12
12
14
13
Feels °C
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
6
6
8
10
9
10
11
13
10
11
10
8
11
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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