Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 28 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.8° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 10,651 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 11s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Fri 31st Jul)4ft (1.2m) 11s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 3rd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 13s
Most Powerful10AM (Wed 29th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, Rusty here.

Look, I'm gonna level with you. The next 16 days at Cape Paterson are a frustrating mix of huge, dangerous swell and absolutely howling wind. It's a beach and reef setup, so it's not going to handle a lot of what's coming. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year.

The first chunk, from the 28th of July through to the 30th, is a write-off. We're talking a near-gale from the WSW on the 29th, with a massive 15ft swell pumping through. The combined energy is off the charts at 10651, but it's just too dangerous and messy. Forget about it.

Thursday the 31st of July offers a tiny glimmer with a 5ft SW swell, but the wind is onshore and it's still a "marginal" call. It'll be lumpy.

The first real chance for a surf comes on Saturday the 1st of August. The morning is looking clean with a light offshore wind from the North, and a small 3ft SW groundswell with a long 18-second period. The energy is moderate (620), but paired with the clean conditions, it'll be worth a paddle. Just be aware that with that long period, the waves might be a bit straight at this beach break, so look for a bank. The afternoon gets a bit bumpy with a cross-shore wind.

Then we get a bit of a gap. The 2nd and 3rd of August are back to strong, messy winds and big, blown-out swell. The 4th of August Tuesday morning brings a return to clean conditions with a smaller 5ft SW swell. The 5th of August Wednesday morning is the real standout. It's glassy, with a light offshore breeze from the NE, and a clean 3ft SW groundswell. For a few hours, it'll be as good as it gets.

We get a few more clean, small mornings on the 6th and 7th, but the swell is tiny. The 8th of August Saturday is a write-off with strong winds.

The closest thing to a proper standout in the second week is lookin' like the 11th of August. Tuesday afternoon is showing a solid 8ft W swell, with clean conditions and a light offshore breeze. The energy is strong (2322), and if the tide plays ball, it'll be an excellent session for the experienced crew. The 12th of August Wednesday morning is showing a massive 13ft swell, but it's too big for this spot. The afternoon is a 16ft beast, the finder says it's too big. So keep your eyes peeled for that Tuesday session.

Honestly, it's a tough run. The consistent theme is that when there's swell, there's wind, and when there's no wind, the swell is small. The 4th and 5th of August mornings are your best bet for a fun, clean wave.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Tue night, light winds from the WSW by Thu night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sat night).

Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
WSW
13
1.6
WSW
12
3
W
11
4.5
WSW
16
4.5
SW
15
3
SW
14
2.2
SW
13
1.5
SW
13
1.6
SW
12
1.4
SW
12
1.3
SW
11
1.1
SW
12
0.8
SW
18
1.6
SW
18
2.1
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
2.3
WSW
16
2.1
WSW
15
3
SW
15
2.4
SW
14
1.8
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
679
660
2626
10651
8519
3996
1632
734
772
514
411
361
370
1766
2611
1714
2555
1772
3424
2261
1077
Wind (km/h)
45
NNW
50
NW
50
WNW
55
WSW
45
WSW
30
SW
25
WSW
30
WSW
15
SW
10
WSW
10
WSW
10
N
15
N
20
NW
25
NNW
40
NW
35
WSW
20
SSW
20
SSE
20
SSE
10
ENE
Wind State
cross-off
cross
cross
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
10:47AM0.64m
9:52PM0.59m
11:47AM0.66m
11:00PM0.59m
12:38PM0.68m
00:05AM0.60m
1:22PM0.71m
1:02AM0.62m
2:00PM0.73m
1:53AM0.64m
2:34PM0.75m
2:40AM0.67m
3:06PM0.77m
3:24AM0.70m
Low Tide
4:33PM0.40m
4:43AM0.18m
5:41PM0.39m
5:41AM0.17m
6:40PM0.35m
6:33AM0.16m
7:29PM0.31m
7:21AM0.16m
8:11PM0.27m
8:04AM0.16m
8:48PM0.22m
8:45AM0.16m
9:23PM0.18m
part cloud
light rain
mod rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:24
7:22
7:22
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:23
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:27
5:28
5:29
 mm
3
8
4
2
2
1
2
2
3
1
5
1
Temp °C
14
13
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
11
11
14
11
10
11
11
10
10
10
Feels °C
4
3
-2
0
3
3
5
4
6
9
9
9
6
9
5
2
2
4
4
4
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
How to use the Wavefinder 
submit an eyeball surf report

Quick surf report for Cape Paterson:

join our community of surf reporters

FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website

The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Cape Paterson surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.


Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

Nearest locationNearest