Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 6,032 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Mon 10th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, checking in.
Alright, mate, it's been a rough patch on the coast. The truth is, looking at the next 16 days, there's a big dead zone right now. We’ve got a solid week of nothing worth paddling out for, with the wind and weather just making a mess of everything. You'd be better off waxing your board and waiting.
That first real window of opportunity opens up on Saturday, August 8th. That's the one to circle on the calendar. Cape Paterson is looking like the spot to be. We’ve got a solid 5ft swell rolling in from the WSW, and the wind is set to swing offshore and lay right down into a light breeze. It’s going to be clean, glassy even. The wave energy is sitting at a solid moderate level, and the period is a long 16 seconds, which means those lines will have some proper push. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest rubber.
The window stays open into Sunday, August 9th too. The swell drops just a touch to 5ft, but the wind holds offshore from the NE. It’s a bit more of a breeze (16 mph), but it’s still clean. Expect a bit of drop-off in energy, but it’s still a solid call.
After that, things get messy again. Monday, August 10th sees a massive spike in energy, up to 13ft, but it’s accompanied by a strong cross-onshore. That’s a write-off for surfing – it’s big, messy, and lumpy. Honestly, at that size and with that wind, Cape Paterson is looking more like a kite-surfing spot than a paddle zone.
The second week is a bit of a mixed bag. There are some promising signs around Saturday, August 15th with a 10ft SW swell and clean conditions from a cross-offshore wind. The energy is strong, but the size is getting up there; it’s for the experienced crew only. The following week, the 19th, has some clean but windy conditions with a 7ft swell, but it’s a long way off and the confidence is low.
So, for the best bet, lock in Saturday, August 8th and Sunday, August 9th at Cape Paterson. It’s not going to be epic, but it’ll be the cleanest, most fun waves we’ve seen in a while.
Stay salty,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu afternoon, light winds from the W by Fri morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sun night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, near gales from the W by Sun night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 19 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 19 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1328 | 692 | 459 | 175 | 249 | 149 | 198 | 727 | 1069 | 1117 | 763 | 1305 | 1098 | 961 | 603 | 453 | 805 | 2300 | 5446 | 4617 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | 6:25AM0.74m | 6:01PM0.75m | 7:21AM0.73m | 6:49PM0.73m | 8:23AM0.72m | 7:46PM0.71m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | 12:12PM0.28m | 00:40AM0.04m | 1:04PM0.31m | 1:35AM0.04m | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | |||||||
 |  | | | |  | | |  | |  | |  |  |  | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — |
 | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — |
mm | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 19 | — | WSW 16 |
| kJ | — | 111 | 186 | 167 | 249 | 149 | 198 | 727 | 1069 | 1117 | 763 | 1305 | 1098 | 961 | 603 | 453 | 805 | 2300 | — | 4617 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 21 | SW 14 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 5 | SW 12 | SW 14 | SW 6 | SW 6 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | E 5 | W 26 | WSW 21 | ESE 10 | — | — |
| kJ | — | 69 | 48 | 175 | 155 | 18 | 68 | 54 | 42 | 47 | 534 | — | — | — | 4 | 13 | 305 | 18 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | WSW 10 | E 8 | SW 16 | WSW 20 | SE 8 | — | WSW 20 | SW 6 | — | — | — | — | E 8 | ESE 7 | N 7 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 43 | 1 | 127 | 38 | 3 | — | 253 | 12 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | SW 10 | SW 10 | SW 8 | WSW 5 | NW 4 | WNW 5 | WSW 6 | WSW 7 | W 7 | — | — | — | N 3 | N 4 | NNW 6 | W 6 | W 6 | WSW 17 | NW 5 |
| kJ | 1328 | 692 | 459 | 167 | 61 | 10 | 48 | 142 | 62 | 31 | — | — | — | 5 | 18 | 114 | 253 | 438 | 5446 | 56 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 126 | 114 | 117 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 54 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 49 | 49 | 120 | 141 | 117 | 227 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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