Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a solid run of surf on offer, starting with a nice clean pulse from the south-west. The water’s sitting at 58°, which is a touch warmer than we’d normally expect for this time of year – nothing wild, but a bit of a pleasant surprise if you’re paddling out.

The first standout is Monday morning, 6 July. The swell is 4ft out of the SW, with a long period of 15 seconds – proper groundswell energy. The wind is offshore from the ENE at 9 mph, and the wave state is described as clean. The combined energy is moderate at 770, so there’s enough push. This is a beach and reef setup, so that long period might make it a bit too straight for the beach sections, but it’ll be tidy enough on the reef. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so keep an eye out for company.

Monday afternoon gets even better, with glassy conditions and a 4ft SW swell at 14 seconds. The energy drops a bit to 513, but it’s a classic afternoon session if you can get out.

Tuesday morning, 7 July, keeps the run going with 4ft SW swell, 17-second period, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the north. That’s 851 on the energy meter – moderate but clean. Tuesday afternoon gets a bit tricky with a cross-shore breeze and marginal conditions, so I’d focus on the mornings.

Now, Wednesday 8 July is where it gets interesting. Morning has 5ft SW swell at 19 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell, and the energy jumps to 1991, which is strong. The wind is light cross-off from the east, and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer in the first week. The reef or river mouth will handle that period better than the beach. The swell is under 5ft, so it’s still manageable for most experienced surfers, but beginners might find the long gaps tricky.

The rest of the week into the weekend stays okay but not as clean. Thursday and Friday mornings have 5ft swell with clean cross-off winds, but the energy is moderate. By Saturday morning, 11 July, the wind picks up to 12 mph from the north, and the swell drops to 4ft – it’s marginal, and by Saturday afternoon the wind is 19 mph and it’s poor.

From Sunday 12 July through to Friday 17 July, it’s a write-off. Strong winds, cross-onshore, rain, and a big bump in swell size. On Monday 13 July, the swell hits 10ft from the WSW, but the wind is a near gale cross-onshore. The energy is massive at 3228, but it’s blown out. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. That run of poor conditions lasts about six days.

Then we get a return to form on Saturday 18 July morning. Swell is down to 4ft SW, 16-second period, light cross-off breeze from the SE, and clean. Energy is 624, moderate. It’s a nice little window to get back in the water.

But the real standout of the second week is Sunday 19 July. Morning and afternoon both have 6ft of WSW swell, period around 14-16 seconds, and offshore winds from the NNE – light as a whisper. The energy is strong at 1663 in the morning and 1455 in the afternoon. The forecast says “very good surf conditions” both sessions. This is a bit bigger than the first week, so it’s pushing the 5ft mark, but it’s still well within the range of a confident intermediate surfer. The offshore wind will keep it clean. This is the one to pencil in.

After that, Monday 20 July gets messy again with strong cross-off winds and a 7ft swell, though Tuesday 21 July has a 10ft WSW swell with clean cross-off winds – but the wind is strong, so it’s marginal and only for the experts.

Overall, the best windows are Wednesday 8 July and Sunday 19 July. The first week is shorter period but cleaner, the second week has more size and energy. Pick your day.

Rusty.

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