
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 3 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 11,548 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 03) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Fri 3rd Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's coming down the pipe for the next couple of weeks.
Look, the start of this run is pretty gnarly, not gonna lie. We've got a big pulse of energy hitting the coast, but the wind is just wrecking it. It's not surfable for a paddle board, not really. If you're into kites, it's a different story for a couple of days.
The real hope is the week ahead. The surf cleans up nicely, but the size drops right off. It's not going to be pumping, but there will be waves to be had. The standout window, and the one to circle on your calendar, is Monday the 13th and the start of that week. We've got a solid SW groundswell coming in, and the conditions look the goods.
Here's the day-by-day for Cape Paterson:
Friday 3rd (Today) & Saturday 4th: Forget it. Big, powerful swell – around 16 to 20 ft – but it's blown to pieces. The combined energy is massive, but with a near-gale cross-on, it's just a washing machine. Not for surfboards. You'd have more fun on a kite.
Sunday 5th: It's starting to clean up, but it's still a bit marginal. Swell is still solid at 7 to 8 ft from the SW, period cranking around 17 seconds. The ESE wind is cross-off, so it'll be clean looking, but the power might make it tricky. Maybe one for the more experienced crew to have a look.
Monday 6th & Tuesday 7th: The size plummets to that knee to waist-high zone (4 to 4 ft). The good news is Monday morning looks glassy with a light offshore, clean lines. Tuesday morning is clean too, but wind swings around. Small and clean, but a real cruisy logger session at best.
Wednesday 8th: A little bump in size to around 7 ft on Wednesday afternoon, but with a cross-on wind, it's not going to be the one.
Thursday 9th: Now we're talking. Morning session is the pick of this quiet period. Clear skies, light offshore wind from the east, 5 ft of SW groundswell, period at 15 seconds. It's clean, there's some push, and it'll be fun for a good intermediate surfer. The sizes are down, but the quality is up.
Friday 10th - Sunday 12th: A bit of a flat spot again. Waist-high waves (4 to 4 ft), mostly clean with glassy conditions on Friday afternoon. It’s small, but if you're desperate, you'll find a ripple.
Monday 13th - THE STANDOUT: Here it is. This is the best we've got. Light rain, but a moderate NE offshore wind, 6 ft of SW groundswell with a period of 16 seconds. This will create proper, lined-up waves. It's not a monster, but the quality is high. Both morning and afternoon look very good, with the afternoon being clean as a whistle with a gentle offshore. This is the one to get excited about.
Tuesday 14th: Looks like the window slams shut. The wind swings back onshore and a huge, dumpy 13-15 ft swell hits with a short 9-10 second period. It's a washing machine again for experts only, and even then, it's not clean.
Wednesday 15th & Thursday 16th: Still messy with strong cross-shore winds. A bump of 13 ft on Thursday from the SSW but it's lumpy and cross. Not worth it.
Friday 17th & Saturday 18th: The last few days are small again, but look nice. Friday is a no-go with cross-shore chop, but Saturday morning the 18th is pure magic. Glassy, around 2 ft of long-period SW groundswell. It'll be tiny, but if you've got a log, it will be as clean as a whistle. A perfect way to end the outlook.
Water temp is sitting at about 58°, which is a bit warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won't need a full 5/4, but don't be fooled, it's still winter.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri morning, min 9°C on Sun afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Fri morning, light winds from the NE by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
16432 | 11548 | 5012 | 3029 | 2248 | 2754 | 3770 | 2630 | 1513 | 757 | 513 | 308 | 640 | 653 | 711 | 1477 | 2402 | 1486 | 1019 | 773 | 883 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 2:27PM0.75m | 2:08AM0.63m | 3:03PM0.76m | 2:53AM0.64m | 3:36PM0.77m | 3:36AM0.65m | 4:07PM0.77m | 4:20AM0.66m | 4:39PM0.76m | 5:05AM0.68m | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:35PM0.29m | 8:23AM0.13m | 9:14PM0.26m | 9:02AM0.14m | 9:51PM0.23m | 9:40AM0.16m | 10:25PM0.20m | 10:19AM0.18m | 11:00PM0.17m | 11:00AM0.21m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | ||||||||
7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | |
— | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | |
mm | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
Feels °C | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
— | — | — | — | — | 2754 | 3770 | 2630 | 1513 | 757 | 513 | 308 | 640 | 653 | 711 | 1477 | 2402 | 1486 | 1019 | 773 | 883 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 14 | SSE 5 | — | SE 5 | SE 5 | SE 5 | SW 19 | ESE 7 | — | WSW 5 | WSW 14 | SSW 6 | SSW 7 | ESE 11 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 |
— | — | — | — | — | 1031 | 21 | — | 8 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 5 | — | 23 | 425 | 34 | 62 | 11 | 8 | 6 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 4 | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SSW 6 | — | SE 4 | ESE 4 | NE 3 | — | — | NNW 2 | W 3 | — | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | E 3 |
16432 | 11548 | 5012 | 3029 | 2248 | 122 | — | 22 | 34 | 2 | — | — | 1 | 6 | — | 47 | — | — | — | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 284 | 820 | 117 | 117 | 421 | 45 | 45 | 66 | 49 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 81 | 38 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










