Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 20 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
0.8° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 6,268 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful 4AM (Fri 24th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s on the menu for Cape Paterson. It’s a bit of a waiting game, but there’s a glimmer of hope way down the track.

Honestly, the next week and a half is a write-off. We’re looking at a solid 13-day stretch where the wind is just a nightmare. From Monday the 20th right through until the end of the month, it’s a constant battle of strong cross-shore, cross-onshore, and onshore winds. The sea state is described as “lumpy,” “messy,” and “choppy” – there’s no way to sugarcoat it, it’s just poor. We do see some solid swell pulses in there, with the combined energy hitting some big numbers, like 5361 on Thursday the 23rd and even 7117 on Friday the 24th, but the wind is absolutely ruining any chance of a clean wave. That 3.5m swell on Friday the 24th with a near-gale cross-shore wind? That’s not for paddling, that’s a kite-surfing setup if anything. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The only break in the area is Cape Paterson itself, a sheltered beach-and-reef spot that normally needs a clean SW swell. The issue is, the wind is all wrong for it.

Now, finally, after that long, bleak stretch, we get a glimmer of light. On Sunday, August 2nd, things start to turn. The morning is looking clean with a light offshore breeze from the NNE and a 1.4m SW swell (1908 combined energy). It’s a solid start. But the true standout is the Sunday afternoon. We’re looking at near-glass conditions with a 2.5m SW groundswell (14-second period, 4054 combined energy). The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and that’s the best call we’ve had all outlook. The wind is described as “glass” – dead calm. That’s a major positive. This swell is a bit hefty for beginners, but for the experienced crew, if the banks are right, this could be a proper session. A long-period swell like this can sometimes be a bit straight at a beach break, but Cape Paterson has a reef component, so it might focus it nicely.

The next day, Monday August 3rd, still has some clean-ish morning conditions with a 1.4m swell, but it’s a step down. After that, things get a bit marginal again. So, if you can hold out, that Sunday the 2nd is your window. It’s a long way off, so keep an eye on the charts, but as of now, that’s the one to circle.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Thu morning). Mainly strong winds.

Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
WSW
16
1
W
12
0.8
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
13
1.4
WSW
12
1.8
W
7
2.3
WSW
7
2.5
WSW
12
3
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
16
3.5
WSW
9
4
WSW
12
3
WSW
13
3
WSW
12
2.4
SW
12
2
WSW
12
1.8
WSW
11
1.2
WSW
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
627
279
268
1138
983
608
278
588
1913
3714
4363
6004
5841
1875
4372
3393
2875
1521
1069
859
323
Wind (km/h)
25
NW
20
NW
20
NNW
20
NNW
20
NW
30
NNW
35
NW
35
W
30
WSW
35
WSW
45
WSW
40
WSW
40
WNW
50
WNW
45
W
35
W
35
W
30
WSW
25
WSW
20
W
20
WNW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
High Tide
4:06PM0.82m
4:39AM0.74m
4:44PM0.80m
5:28AM0.72m
5:21PM0.76m
6:14AM0.70m
5:57PM0.73m
7:01AM0.68m
6:33PM0.69m
7:50AM0.65m
7:12PM0.66m
8:44AM0.64m
7:56PM0.63m
Low Tide
10:28PM0.09m
10:36AM0.17m
11:11PM0.08m
11:19AM0.22m
11:51PM0.09m
12:01PM0.27m
00:31AM0.11m
12:43PM0.31m
1:13AM0.13m
1:29PM0.35m
1:57AM0.16m
2:21PM0.38m
2:48AM0.17m
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
light rain
cloud
light rain
light rain
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:28
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:17
5:17
5:19
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
 mm
4
3
3
1
2
1
2
2
3
Temp °C
12
14
13
12
14
12
13
11
11
10
11
11
11
11
13
13
13
12
12
13
12
Feels °C
6
9
8
7
9
6
6
3
5
1
0
0
1
1
4
6
6
5
6
9
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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