Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 5,195 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Fri 4th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks is a tough one. We’re looking at a long run of poor conditions before anything really clicks into place. The first real surf on offer isn’t until late in the period, so patience is the name of the game. Water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year, so not too bad in the wetsuit.
The pattern for the next week and a half is dominated by a big, energetic southwest swell – the combined energy readings are often in the thousands, showing plenty of power in the water. But the problem is the wind. It’s mostly cross-onshore or onshore, from the west or southwest, with speeds from 12 mph right up to a punching 28 mph. That’s going to chop things up badly at this beach and reef setup. A lot of days are marked as “poor surf conditions” – it’s going to be messy, lumpy, and not worth the paddle out unless you’re after a fight. The swell gets big, too big for most. Saturday the 5th of September has a 13 ft WSW swell with clean cross-off winds, but that's a whole lot of water for only the most experienced crew, and it’s still a marginal call.
There’s a little glimmer early on Friday the 28th of August. It’s not a standout, but if you’re desperate, the midday session shows a 8 ft groundswell from the WSW (17-second period) with a light southwest onshore wind of just 6 mph. The combined energy is massive, meaning there’s heaps of power, but with the wind straight on it’s going to be a raw, walled-up affair. That’s one for the experts only – that kind of size and period on a beach and reef can be pretty hairy.
Then you have to wait. There’s a solid gap of poor conditions. Then Wednesday the 9th of September morning shows a brief window. The swell drops right down to 5 ft from the SW, but the real kicker is the wind: absolutely dead calm with zero wind – glassy conditions. Combined energy is moderate. This is the only time in the whole run where it’s going to be smooth and clean. The crowd factor says “sometimes” here, so you might have a few other keen locals in the know, but for a clean 5 ft SW swell at a spot that’s “fairly consistent,” this is your best bet by a long shot. It’s nothing huge, but the quality of the conditions makes it the true standout.
After that, the wind turns messy again and we get another moderate swell building. The 11th of September has a 6 ft WSW swell with a very long 17-second period and a light cross-onshore breeze from the SSE at 6 mph. That’s an option, but it’s marginal with the wind ripple. By the 12th of September we’re back to a big 13 ft W/SW swell with a lot of energy, but it’s cross-shore wind again, so lumpy.
So to wrap it up for you: hold out for Wednesday the 9th of September morning for that clean, calm dawn session. Don’t bother with the rest unless you’re a die-hard looking for a paddle in the chop.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Tue morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1137 | 2987 | 2178 | 1175 | 934 | 700 | 1034 | 971 | 1127 | 1459 | 1307 | 2091 | 1284 | 927 | 667 | 1848 | 1835 | 1576 | 1267 | 2060 | 4197 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | 1:58PM0.74m | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | 7:45AM0.18m | 8:13PM0.16m | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | ||||||||
6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | |
— | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | 5 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | — |
1137 | 2987 | 2178 | 1175 | 934 | 700 | 1034 | 971 | 1127 | 1459 | 1307 | 2091 | 1284 | 927 | 402 | 1848 | 1835 | 1576 | 1267 | 2060 | — | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | ESE 10 | — | — | W 24 | WSW 22 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 22 | SW 19 | — | — | — | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
1044 | 9 | — | — | 11 | 46 | 98 | 98 | 50 | 18 | 384 | — | — | — | 667 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SSW 5 | SW 5 | SW 5 | SW 6 | — | SW 14 | SW 5 | SW 5 | — | — | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 5 | — | — | — | W 6 | NW 4 | WSW 13 |
— | — | 28 | 23 | 40 | 80 | — | 716 | 57 | 43 | — | — | 49 | 47 | 21 | — | — | — | 213 | 31 | 4197 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 45 | 52 | 23 | 126 | 41 | 23 | 126 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 119 | 105 | 5 | 41 | 45 | 52 | 105 | 141 | 117 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











