Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 23 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 23 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 17s period, WSW swell with 2,737 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 20s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.1m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Mon 24th Aug)4.5ft (1.3m) 13s
Best Surf 7PM (Mon 24th Aug)4.5ft (1.3m) 13s
Most Powerful 1PM (Fri 28th Aug)7ft (2.1m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it's a bit of a tough stretch ahead. The forecast points to a long run of days where the conditions are just fighting us. For the first several days, the surf is around but the wind and tide aren't playing ball. The standout window is a very narrow one, and it's not a classic firing session.

We start with a bit of swell on Sunday the 23rd, but it's a cross-on WSW wind at 6 mph on a 7 ft SW swell. The wave energy is very strong (1617), but that wind is going to mess it up, and it's labelled as marginal. The water temp is 56°, which is about average for this time of year.

Now, the best chance to get something decent is Tuesday morning, the 25th. That's a glassy session with the wind going light easterly, and a 5 ft SW swell with a 13-second period. The energy is moderate (792). It's a short window, but for this spot, that's as good as it gets. The wind is glass, so the waves will be clean.

The rest of the week is a write-off, with onshore and cross-shore winds and poor surf tags. Thursday the 27th morning has a 4 ft swell (528 energy) but a cross wind, so it's messy. Friday the 28th sees a bigger, longer-period swell (7 ft SW at 17 seconds, 2582 energy) but that cross-on wind will chop it up.

From there, it's a long stretch of poor conditions. The wind stays strong and onshore or cross-onshore pretty much through to the end of the forecast. The swell on the 4th of September gets big (10 ft, 1399 energy) but it's a short-period 9-second swell, and the wind is screaming. Then on the 5th and 6th, it's a gale-force mess with 12 ft+ swell and near gale winds. That's kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

So, the only real shout is Tuesday morning the 25th. It's a glassy, clean 5 ft SW swell. Don't expect a lot of push, but it'll be the best of a pretty average bunch.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Sun
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
2
2
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.1
SW
14
1.8
WSW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.4
WSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.5
SW
13
1.7
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
10
0.9
WSW
20
1.5
WSW
18
2.1
WSW
17
1.9
WSW
16
1.6
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1617
1588
822
700
594
669
734
1126
969
745
711
456
152
670
1415
2582
1728
1057
862
563
Wind (km/h)
10
WSW
20
NNW
25
NNW
15
NW
10
E
5
E
5
SW
20
WSW
20
SW
20
WSW
10
WSW
15
NW
10
W
15
NNW
20
WNW
10
W
15
NW
20
NW
20
W
10
W
Wind State
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
glassy
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
6:31PM0.66m
7:55AM0.63m
7:14PM0.63m
8:55AM0.62m
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
11:07AM0.63m
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
Low Tide
1:13AM0.16m
1:34PM0.37m
2:03AM0.19m
2:35PM0.40m
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
4:07AM0.22m
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:52
6:50
6:50
6:48
6:47
6:45
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:46
5:46
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
 mm
3
4
1
Temp °C
13
13
15
16
14
11
12
12
12
12
11
11
12
12
12
13
13
14
14
13
Feels °C
11
9
11
13
11
10
10
10
7
8
8
8
9
10
9
10
10
9
10
11
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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