Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 07 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 7 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 20s period, SW swell with 10,204 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 20s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Tue 8th Sep)5ft (1.6m) 12s
Best Surf 1AM (Sat 12th Sep)7ft (2.1m) 16s
Most Powerful10AM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 20s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the Cape Paterson region over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a bit of a rough stretch, and we’ve got a long wait for anything that’s really worth getting wet for.

The first week is a write-off, I’m afraid. We’re looking at a run of poor conditions straight out of the gate. Monday the 7th kicks off with a solid 8ft SW swell, but it’s being hammered by a 30 km/h onshore wind and a short, weak period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (752), but it’s just a messy, blown-out affair. That theme continues right through the middle of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday see the swell jump up, with wave heights hitting 12ft on Wednesday the 9th and a massive surge of energy (11524), but it’s all onshore, with fresh to strong breezes ruining any chance of a clean face. This is expert-only, heavy water, and the wind is just going to make it a washing machine. Honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing with that much wind and swell.

We don’t see a shift until the following weekend. The first real glimmer of hope appears on Saturday the 12th. The morning shows a clean, clear sky with a light breeze swinging offshore. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the SW, but the period stretches out to a very long 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is still a solid 1761. The wind is a light cross-shore, so there’ll be a few ripples, but it’s the cleanest we’ve seen all week. The break is a beach and reef setup, and with a long period like that, it’s going to be better for the reef sections to keep the waves from just closing out. It’s marked as “fairly consistent,” but the spot is sheltered and takes a SW swell, so it needs a bit of direction. The water temp is a bit above average for this time of year at 57°, so not bad for a winter surf.

Sunday the 13th is another one to keep an eye on. The morning session shows a 5ft SW swell with a very long period of 15 seconds. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the NNW, which is a major positive. The report says “clean” – that’s what we want to hear. The energy is a bit lower (901), but with clean conditions and a good swell direction, it could offer some fun, lined-up waves. This could be the pick of the lot for the whole outlook. Just be aware, crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea.

After that, we get a bit of a lull. The second week is a mixed bag of onshore winds and lumpy seas. There’s still some swell around, but the quality drops off. Friday the 18th morning offers a 5ft SW swell with a 15-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore. It’s only a marginal call, but it’s the best of a bad bunch in the second week. The energy is moderate (1239), so there’s enough push, but it won’t be as clean as the weekend before.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a complete loss. Let the big swell with the strong wind blow through. Your best bet is the Saturday the 12th, with the clean morning conditions and the long-period groundswell. Sunday the 13th morning is a very close second, with that offshore wind making things clean. The rest of the run is a waiting game, hoping the forecasts change for the better. It’s not a bad area, it just tends to get these blank runs when the wind locks in.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Mon
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
1
4
2
2
2
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
SW
8
1.6
SW
9
1.5
SW
13
1.2
SW
17
3
WSW
16
3.5
SW
20
3.5
SW
18
3.5
SW
18
3
SW
16
3
SW
16
2.2
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
2.1
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
15
1.2
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
567
396
723
874
3779
10204
8602
7812
4959
3840
2293
1542
1585
2269
1761
1436
1088
784
739
537
Wind (km/h)
30
SSW
10
SW
15
W
20
W
35
SW
35
SW
35
SSW
25
SSW
20
SW
15
SW
15
SW
10
WSW
10
WSW
10
NNW
10
NW
5
WSW
15
N
25
NNW
25
NNW
35
NNW
Wind State
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
on
on
on
on
on
cross-off
cross
on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
6:32PM0.72m
7:59AM0.70m
7:34PM0.69m
9:07AM0.69m
8:50PM0.66m
10:16AM0.68m
10:15PM0.66m
11:20AM0.70m
11:34PM0.68m
12:15PM0.72m
00:41AM0.72m
1:03PM0.74m
1:37AM0.75m
Low Tide
1:15AM0.07m
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
3:00PM0.33m
3:32AM0.15m
4:19PM0.30m
4:46AM0.17m
5:30PM0.25m
5:53AM0.18m
6:29PM0.19m
6:52AM0.18m
7:20PM0.13m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:30
6:28
6:26
6:26
6:24
6:22
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:02
6:04
6:05
 mm
2
Temp °C
11
10
11
11
12
10
11
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
14
17
16
19
21
19
Feels °C
4
6
6
7
4
1
3
4
7
8
8
8
8
8
10
14
13
13
16
13
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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