Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 21 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 18s period, WSW swell with 4,768 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 21) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Fri 21st Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here.
Alright, let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks. It’s a slow start, so don’t be in a rush. The first few days have a bit of swell, but it’s nothing to write home about, and the winds are mostly side-on, keeping things a little messy. The real action, if you can wait for it, builds towards the end of the window. Keep an eye on that last weekend into the following Monday – that’s where the standout surf is.
Sunday, August 16th: We’ve got a clean 5.2ft SW swell with a 14-second period, and the morning is glassy with a slight NE air. There’s decent energy in the water at 988, but it’s not massive. It’s surfable, but more of a heads-up session to get the wetsuit on. The afternoon goes a bit cross-shore with a southeast breeze, so the morning is the pick of the day.
Monday, August 17th: The swell mixes around, still mostly in the 4.6ft to 5.2ft range from the SW. The morning is clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but the afternoon wind picks up to 25 km/h from the ESE. There’s a bit more push in the water by the afternoon (energy up to 1271), but that wind will put some lumps on it. Not a classic.
Tuesday, August 18th: A slight drop in size, with 4.3ft on the morning, but the wind turns offshore (ENE) and it’s clean. This is a better option for a morning paddle. The wave comment says “expect good surf conditions,” and the energy is moderate at 789. The afternoon drops off in energy and gets side-shore again. So, Tuesday morning is your early-week window.
Wednesday & Thursday (19th-20th): The swell drops away significantly and the wind gets up. It’s small and messy, with a lot of cross-shore wind. Not worth your time, to be honest. The energy is weak and the conditions are poor.
Friday, August 21st: The swell starts to build, but the southwest wind is cranking. By the afternoon, we’ve got 7.5ft of SW swell with a 14-second period and the energy is way up at 4215. Problem is, it’s full of cross-shore wind and lumpy. It’s going to be a battle, and the break at Cape Paterson is a beach and reef set-up. With that much wind and that size, it’s looking more like a kite-surfing day than a clean paddle-surfing day.
Saturday, August 22nd: This is where it gets serious. Saturday morning sees a solid 9.8ft of WSW swell, with a 15-second period and a strong onshore SW wind at 30 km/h. Energy is pushing 3953. This is big, powerful, and blown out. For a beach and reef set-up, it’s going to be a washing machine. Only for the most experienced, and even then, it’s going to be messy. The afternoon backs off slightly to 8.2ft, but the wind stays on it. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty.
Sunday, August 23rd: Still a solid 8.2ft of swell, but the wind switches to a cross-shore N/NW, which is a bit better. It’s still big and powerful, but the 15-second period means it will have real lines. It’s going to be a heavy, grinding day with a lot of water moving. Not for the faint of heart. If you’re an expert and know the reef, it could be on, but the cross-shore wind will make it hard to get a clean
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 18°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 9 | W 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 988 | 988 | 811 | 777 | 1271 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 282 | 257 | 232 | 268 | 299 | 319 | 803 | 530 | 2012 | 4355 | 3953 | 3071 | 3079 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross |
High Tide | 2:17PM0.80m | 2:42AM0.76m | 2:57PM0.80m | 3:31AM0.77m | 3:35PM0.80m | 4:16AM0.77m | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:33PM0.12m | 8:47AM0.13m | 9:17PM0.08m | 9:31AM0.16m | 9:57PM0.06m | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | |  | |  |  |  |  | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — |
 | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 10 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 12 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | W 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | 988 | 988 | 811 | 777 | 1271 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 282 | 257 | 232 | 268 | 158 | 319 | 803 | 530 | 1644 | — | 3953 | 3071 | 3079 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 6 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | WSW 13 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 88 | — | 127 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 128 | 265 | — | 414 | 559 | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 5 | — | E 6 | E 12 | E 11 | ESE 6 | SE 7 | SW 17 | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 137 | — | 475 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 5 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | E 5 | SE 2 | ENE 3 | N 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 9 | — | — | NW 4 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 63 | 299 | — | — | 18 | 2012 | 4355 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 44 | 5 | 20 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 105 | 35 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 113 | 117 | 126 | 81 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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