Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 23 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 28 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 18s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 17s period, WSW swell with 2,737 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 20s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.1m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 24th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Fri 28th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright mates, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day outlook for Cape Paterson, and it’s a real mixed bag. The first few days are a bit of a slow starter, but there’s a proper standout window that’s going to get the blood pumping.
Right off the bat, Monday morning (24th August) is a bit of a washout. There’s a 5ft SW swell coming through, but it’s got a messy cross-off wind and the energy is only moderate at 822. The water temp is about average for the time of year. Tuesday morning (25th) looks a little better with a clean 5ft SW swell and a gentle offshore breeze from the NE. The energy is still moderate (803), but it’s surfable. Things get ugly Wednesday (26th) with a strong onshore wind and a bumpy 6ft SW swell – that’s a hard pass.
After a few more marginal days, we finally get the goods. Friday, 28th August is the absolute standout. Friday morning brings a clean 5ft WSW swell with an 18-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. The cross-off wind from the NNW keeps it tidy, and the combined energy is a solid 2090. Then Friday afternoon? Absolute magic. The wind goes glassy (0 mph), and the swell pushes up to 7ft from the WSW with a 17-second period. The energy jumps to 2431. This is an expert-level wave, but for those who can handle it, it’s going to be a session to remember. The long period means it’ll stand up nice and steep on the reef, but watch for those long lulls between sets.
Saturday (29th) and Sunday (30th) mornings are still worth a look. Saturday has a clean 5ft cross-shore wind, but the energy drops. Sunday morning is glassy again with a 3ft SW swell, but the energy is weaker (659). The second week is a bit of a gamble. The 6th of September (Sunday) shows a promising 8ft WSW swell with a 16-second period and a cross-off wind, but the wind is a stiff 19-25 mph which will make it a bumpy, challenging ride. The energy is huge (2771), but it’s only for the brave. After that, the 7th and 8th see a massive 12ft swell, but it’s hammered by onshore winds, making it a blown-out, dangerous mess – that’s a week for the kites, not the paddles.
So, to sum it up: the first few days are a slow grind, but Friday the 28th is the day to circle on the calendar. Get on it if you can.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Mon afternoon, fresh winds from the WSW by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1394 | 822 | 700 | 594 | 680 | 734 | 1031 | 1368 | 837 | 878 | 456 | 314 | 670 | 1431 | 2431 | 1415 | 899 | 774 | 458 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross | on | glassy |
High Tide | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
| kJ | 1394 | 822 | 700 | 594 | 680 | 734 | 1031 | 521 | 837 | 878 | 456 | 314 | 458 | 1431 | 2431 | 1415 | 899 | 774 | 458 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | — | — | SSW 7 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 22 | WSW 20 | WSW 13 | — | — | SE 10 | SE 10 | SW 22 |
| kJ | — | — | 15 | 32 | 123 | 237 | — | — | 68 | 25 | 21 | 119 | 670 | 659 | — | — | 4 | 4 | 18 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | WSW 18 | — | E 4 | — | — | — | — | WSW 23 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 10 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 32 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 51 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | N 3 | NE 3 | — | SW 4 | SW 14 | SSW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 5 | 15 | 20 | 2 | 2 | — | 24 | 1368 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 54 | 81 | 81 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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