Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 21ft (6.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 16,219 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 8 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 17s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 6.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 21ft (6.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it.
Right now, there’s a solid stretch of clean, rideable waves on the way, but don’t get too excited just yet. The first good window is shaping up for Wednesday morning (8th of July) at Cape Paterson (beach and reef). We’ve got a nice 5ft SW groundswell with a long 19-second period pushing in, and the water’s sitting at 58°, which is about normal for this time of year. The wind is light and cross-off from the ENE, so it’s going to be clean. The combined energy is strong at 1938, so there’s plenty of push. This is the standout of the first few days – real quality on offer.
Thursday morning (9th of July) looks good too, with a 5ft SW swell and a light NNE cross-off. The period drops to 16 seconds, but the wind is almost glassy in the afternoon with a light S breeze, making it clean again. Friday morning (10th of July) is another one to circle: a 5ft WSW swell with a nice period, clean conditions, and moderate energy (1069). That is a very good option.
Now, here’s the bummer. From Saturday (11th of July) right through until the 23rd of July, conditions go seriously downhill for paddle surfing. There are huge swells, way over 8ft and even up to 20ft, with brutal, strong winds. The combined energy goes through the roof (up to 14104), but it’s all blown out and messy. That stretch is over a week of proper winter slop – too big for beginners and just ugly for anyone. The beach and reef setup here would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddling during those days.
But hold on, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Mark your calendars for Thursday morning (23rd of July). The wind swings light cross-off from the NNW and we’ve got a solid 10ft WSW groundswell with a 15-second period. The combined energy is a beefy 3303. The forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” – that’s the real standout of the whole outlook. It’s still a week and a half away, so treat it as promising but not locked in. This one will need the bigger swell and clean wind to line up, but if it does, Cape Paterson will be cranking for the crew that can handle it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 28mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Sat afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the NW on Mon morning, fresh winds from the NW by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1014 | 711 | 515 | 357 | 976 | 5248 | 5400 | 6495 | 6583 | 8222 | 6515 | 4150 | 3081 | 9117 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:00AM0.21m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | | | |  |  |  |  | |  |  | | | |  | | |
 | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — |
 | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 6 | 8 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — |
| kJ | 1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1014 | 711 | 515 | 357 | 976 | — | — | — | — | — | 6515 | 4150 | 3081 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | SE 11 | SW 20 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | WSW 7 | W 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 553 | 24 | 29 | 5 | 97 | 9 | — | — | — | 9 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | — | — | ESE 5 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | SE 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 31 | — | — | 2 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | — | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 12 |
| kJ | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 66 | 133 | 73 | 5248 | 5400 | 6495 | 6583 | 8222 | — | 45 | 113 | 9117 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 227 | 142 | 227 | 142 | 443 | 581 | 227 | 747 | 113 | 227 | 537 | 493 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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