Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, givin' it to you straight from the coast.

This is a tough one to look at, to be honest. We've got a heap of swell on the way, but the wind gods are just not playin' nice for most of the run. Cape Paterson is a sheltered spot, so it can handle some swell, but the cross-onshore and onshore breezes are going to ruin a lot of the ride. We're lookin' at a big stretch of nothing much until the start of the second week, so don't go cancelling your plans just yet.

Right off the bat, Tuesday the 1st through the entire first week, the wind is just howling from the west. Swell is plenty big, with moderate to very strong wave energy (over 1100 on the Thursday), but it’s all blown out, messy, and lumpy. Thursday the 3rd is a write-off with 12ft to 13ft windslop. The weekend of the 5th and 6th is even worse with near-gale winds. You’d be a loony to paddle out, and honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now, the light finally starts to show on Monday the 7th. The swell drops right off, but glassy mornings and a light offshore N/NE wind look like our first real window. The morning of Monday the 7th shows a smaller 4ft SW swell, but with light cross-offshore winds, it might just be the quiet session you need. However, the real standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Sunday the 13th.

We get a full day of glassy conditions with a consistent 4ft WSW groundswell. The wind is dead calm, glassy as a mirror. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year—not a shock to the system. The swell period is 14 seconds, a nice groundswell that will hold up well for a beach-and-reef like Cape Paterson, though it might be a bit straight for the beach breaks. The wave energy is modest (around 730 in the AM), but with zero wind, it's the cleanest we’ll see all outlook.

The following day, Monday the 14th, also has potential. The morning looks unreal with a 6ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds and a clean offshore NNE breeze at 15 mph. That’s a proper long-period groundswell, which means power and long lulls between sets. It’s clean, but 6ft is a good jump in size. The wave energy is also moderate (1875). This could be the best day for a decent wave if you can get out on the paddle.

For the rest of the second week, the wind turns back onshore and crappy again, so don't get your hopes up after Monday. It’s a classic winter pattern: huge swell, nasty wind, then a short, sweet window of glass followed by the next front moving in. The Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th mornings are the picks.

That's the picture from here. Keep your eyes on the sky and your wax on.

Rusty

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