Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 12 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,717 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the menu for Cape Paterson.
Gonna be a bit of a slow burn for the first week to be honest. We've got some solid swell pushing through from Wednesday onward, but the wind is gonna be a real pain. That strong cross and cross-onshore breeze blows the quality right off the table. We’re looking at the combined energy of all swells directed here hitting moderate to strong levels (1030 to 4466) but it won't matter if it's a mess. The water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 57°F, which is a nice little bonus for the winter.
The real story starts to change by the weekend. Saturday morning, the 15th, the wind finally drops. We’re looking at a light SE cross-shore, which is a massive improvement. The swell is still a solid 7ft out of the SW with a long 15-second period, giving it that groundswell punch. The combined energy is still moderate (2204). It’s a bit of a wait, but that’s the first window that looks genuinely surfable, even if it's still a bit marginal with the tide.
Now, if you’re looking for the best of the best, you gotta hold out for Sunday morning, the 16th. That’s the standout. The sky's clear, the wind swings to a light offshore from the ENE, and the swell is a clean 6ft out of the SW. The period is a very nice 14 seconds, bringing in some proper lines. The wave energy is still moderate (1187), but with that offshore wind, it's going to be the cleanest, most fun wave of the whole outlook. Get on it, that’s the one.
The following week shapes up with some more good windows. Tuesday morning, the 18th, looks promising again with a light offshore wind and a 5ft SW swell. And even further out, on the 25th, we might see another really nice day with a 5ft SW swell and a long 18-second period, but that’s a long way off so keep an eye on it.
A word of caution: Cape Paterson is a sheltered spot, and it's best for advanced surfers. When the swell gets over 8ft, like it will on Thursday the 13th, it's only for experts. The crowds can be there sometimes, so if you score that Sunday, you might have some company.
Cheers,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NNW on Tue night, moderate winds from the WNW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 785 | 1193 | 482 | 1401 | 989 | 4646 | 4466 | 3871 | 3794 | 3785 | 3219 | 2761 | 2204 | 1910 | 1446 | 1187 | 1002 | 822 | 742 | 742 | 1098 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | 12:43PM0.76m | 00:44AM0.72m | 1:33PM0.78m | 1:47AM0.74m | 2:17PM0.80m | 2:42AM0.76m | 2:57PM0.80m | 3:31AM0.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | 6:04AM0.09m | 6:50PM0.23m | 7:05AM0.10m | 7:44PM0.17m | 7:58AM0.11m | 8:33PM0.12m | 8:47AM0.13m | 9:17PM0.08m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  |  | | | | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | |
 | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — |
 | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 |
| kJ | 785 | 1193 | 382 | 1401 | 989 | 3642 | 4466 | 3871 | 3794 | 3785 | 3219 | 2761 | 2204 | 1910 | 1446 | 1187 | 1002 | 822 | 742 | 742 | 1098 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | ESE 11 | SW 17 | SE 11 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | ESE 5 | — |
| kJ | 9 | 11 | 482 | 5 | 643 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 5 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | ESE 11 | WSW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 4 | 11 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | NW 4 | NW 5 | W 6 | WSW 8 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 4 | ESE 5 | E 5 | E 5 | ESE 4 |
| kJ | 241 | 20 | 89 | 448 | 671 | 4646 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 6 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 105 | 227 | 114 | 35 | 54 | 114 | 52 | 5 | 54 | 141 | 5 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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