Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 19 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 2,920 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Cape Paterson are a tale of two halves. The first week to ten days is a write-off for decent paddling, with a heap of energy in the water but the wind just ruining it. The second week, especially towards the end, starts to show some real promise. Hold tight.
First up, the water is sitting at 56°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than normal for this time of year – feels a touch mild, but you’ll still want a decent steamer.
We’ve got a blank run from Wednesday 19 August all the way through to Tuesday 25 August. The swell is there, but it’s mostly cross-shore, cross-on, or just plain lumpy. Wave heights range from 2ft to 8ft, and the combined energy is moderate to strong (257 to 2133), but it’s all blown out. Not worth the paddle.
Then, on Wednesday 26 August, things flip. The morning sees a clean 7ft SW swell (energy 1050) with a light offshore breeze from the NE. That’s a legit window – big enough to get some power, but not too big for a confident intermediate. The afternoon goes glassy, with a 5ft SW swell (731 energy) and zero wind. That’s the standout day of the first week.
Thursday 27 August is a write-off again with strong NNW winds, and Friday 28 August brings a massive 8ft to 10ft SW swell (energy 4539 to 4944) but with cross-shore and cross-on winds. That’s only for the experts, and even then, it’s messy. The afternoon of Friday 28 has a light breeze, so it might be worth a look if you’re a charger, but it’s still lumpy.
The real highlight comes in the second week. Wednesday 3 September looks absolutely magic. Morning brings a 5ft SW swell (energy 1450) with glassy conditions – that’s a long-period groundswell (17 seconds) which will be proper clean and powerful, but at a beach-and-reef setup like Cape Paterson, it might be a bit too straight for the beach breaks. Best for the reef. That’s the pick of the forecast.
The other one to keep an eye on is Monday 31 August – a clean 3ft SW swell (energy 764) with a light offshore breeze, but it’s a long-period swell (16 seconds) so again, head for the reef.
Otherwise, the rest of the period is a mix of onshore slop, cross-chop, and barely surfable conditions. A few breaks might be okay for the dedicated, but nothing else is worth driving for.
Crowds can be around sometimes, so if you hit the good windows, you might have company.
In summary: Wednesday 26 August morning is your first chance of a decent session, and Wednesday 3 September morning is the absolute standout – glassy, long-period groundswell, and clean. Everything else is a gamble.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 10 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
257 | 229 | 268 | 381 | 198 | 294 | 740 | 528 | 2669 | 2920 | 2513 | 2346 | 1852 | 1487 | 1412 | 742 | 644 | 860 | 1170 | 1986 | 1685 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | |||||||
6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | |
— | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | |
mm | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 6 | 2 | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 10 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 |
257 | 229 | 268 | 158 | 198 | 294 | 740 | 435 | 2669 | 2920 | 2513 | 2346 | 1852 | 1487 | 1412 | 742 | 644 | 81 | 130 | 147 | 191 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 19 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — |
5 | 5 | 43 | 128 | 140 | 181 | 251 | 501 | — | — | — | — | 157 | — | — | 18 | 37 | 81 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 4 | — | SE 7 | SE 8 | E 8 | — | — | WSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
3 | — | 2 | 3 | 5 | — | — | 528 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 9 | W 8 | W 5 | W 7 | WSW 7 | — | WSW 6 | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 |
8 | 33 | 41 | 381 | 187 | 92 | 192 | 161 | — | 113 | — | — | — | — | 11 | 46 | 40 | 860 | 1170 | 1986 | 1685 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 49 | 5 | 105 | 23 | 45 | 113 | 52 | 5 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 105 | 5 | 45 | 45 | 39 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











