Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson. It’s a mixed bag, to be honest. This spot is a sheltered beach and reef setup, only really for advanced surfers, especially when it gets big. We’ve got a decent run of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a real headache for most of it.

The water temp is sitting around 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick off on Thursday, 16 July, but don’t get excited. There’s a solid 8ft SW groundswell (15-second period) rolling in, with a combined energy of 2203. That’s a lot of grunt, but it’s coming with a strong onshore WSW wind at 6 mph. The wave comment says it’s marginal, and I’m not touching it. The wind picks up in the arvo, making it even worse.

Friday, 17 July, is where it starts to look a bit more promising. The morning session is the standout. The swell has dropped to 6ft from the SW, still a long 16-second period, and the energy is still substantial at 1806. The big news is the wind has swung to a cross-offshore NNW breeze at 9 mph. That’s clean, and the forecast is calling for “very good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer in the first week. The afternoon gets a cross-on wind, so don’t bother with that.

Saturday, 18 July, is a similar story. The morning is clean with a cross-off NNW wind at 9 mph and a 6ft WSW swell (14-second period). The energy is still moderate at 1193. It’s good, but not as punchy as Friday. The wind goes light and cross-on for the arvo.

Sunday, 19 July, the swell drops to 4ft with a WSW direction and a 13-second period. The morning is clean with a cross-off NNW breeze, but the energy is only 534. It’s rideable, but you’ll be working for it.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Monday, 20 July, right through to Sunday, 26 July, it’s mostly poor or marginal. The wind is all over the shop – cross-shore, cross-chop, and at times a fresh breeze up to 19 mph. There’s a few clean windows, like Tuesday, 21 July morning, and Sunday, 26 July morning, but the swell is small and the energy is weak. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have it to yourself, but the quality just isn’t there.

The next real highlight pops up on Monday, 27 July. The morning sees a 8ft WSW swell (13-second period) with a cross-off NNW wind at 19 mph – that’s clean. The energy is 1930. The afternoon gets even bigger: a 10ft WSW swell with a 14-second period and a massive 3429 in combined energy. The wind is still cross-off, so it’s clean. But at 10ft, this is only for experts. This is the second standout of the whole forecast.

Tuesday, 28 July, is a write-off. The swell is 10ft to 12ft, but the wind is a near gale (31 mph) in the morning and a strong onshore in the arvo. The energy is insane (3504 to 5116), but it’s a messy, dangerous mess. This would be more of a kite surfing day than a paddle day.

The rest of the run into the end of July and into August is a mix of big swell and terrible wind. The last decent chance is on Friday, 31 July, with a 12ft SW groundswell of 16-second period and a massive 6239 energy. The wind is a cross-on S breeze at 12 mph, so it’s chopped up, but for a hardy expert, it might be worth a paddle. The period is long, so it’ll be better at the reef than the beach.

So, to wrap it up: the best windows are the morning of Friday, 17 July, and the morning and afternoon of Monday, 27 July. The rest is a lot of noise. Keep an eye on the charts, because it’s a dynamic forecast.

Rusty.

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