Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 01 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with 1,915 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 1.9m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Sat 1st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 18s
Best Surf 4PM (Sat 1st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 18s
Most Powerful 1AM (Sun 2nd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here, and I gotta tell ya, it’s a real mixed bag on the horizon. We’ve got some solid swell coming through but the wind is gonna be the main character for a lot of it. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is just a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s not a shock to the system.

The first real chance to get a wave is this Saturday morning, the 1st of August. Cape Paterson (Victoria) is the only spot on the cards. The swell is a clean 3ft from the southwest, and with a light NNE breeze making it cross-off, it’s looking pretty tidy. The period is a solid 12 seconds, so there’s some proper energy in the water (546). It’s not a massive day, but it’s clean and lined up. The crowds can pop up here sometimes, so keep an eye out.

That afternoon, things get even better. The wind drops to glassy with a WSW breeze, and the swell pushes up to 5ft, still from the southwest. The period jumps to a very long 18 seconds, and the energy is pumping (1471). This is a standout window for the whole forecast—clean, solid, and glassy. If you can get out there, do it.

Sunday the 2nd keeps the momentum going. The morning sees a 5ft southwest swell (16-second period, 1390 energy) with a cross-off northerly breeze. It’s a good, clean option. The afternoon gets a bit bumpier with a stronger NNW wind, but the swell holds at 5ft.

Then we hit a wall. From Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th, the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, and the surf gets messy. Strong winds and rain make it a write-off for paddling. There’s a big 10ft swell on Monday afternoon, but with a short, choppy 7-second period and strong cross-shore wind, it’s a washing machine. Not ideal for paddle surfing.

Friday the 7th is a return to form. The morning brings a clean 4ft swell from the west-southwest with a very long 16-second period and a light northerly cross-off breeze. The energy is strong (1286), and it’s clean. The standout for the second week is this morning session. The afternoon gets a bit of cross-on wind, but it’s still rideable.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are decent but not epic. Clean cross-off winds, but the swell drops to 4-5ft. The energy is moderate (957 then 541). It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

The following week is a letdown. From Monday the 10th onwards, the wind swings onshore and the swell gets big, messy, and dangerous. On Tuesday the 11th, we see an 12ft swell with an 8-second period and strong onshore wind—that’s for experts only, and even then, it’s a battle. The energy is massive (4588) but the quality is poor. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through the middle of the week.

The last chance in the window is Sunday the 16th. The morning sees a 4ft southwest swell with a 15-second period and a light east-southeast cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate (701) and it’s clean. It’s a small, mellow way to finish the run.

Overall, the best surf is on Saturday the 1st afternoon with that glassy, 5ft groundswell, and the Friday the 7th morning session with the clean, long-period swell. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Mon morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue morning, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Tue morning, light winds from the W by Thu night).

Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
3
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SW
12
1.6
SW
18
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.5
WSW
15
1.3
WSW
14
3
WSW
7
2.1
WSW
14
2.5
WSW
12
2.2
WSW
11
1.3
WSW
11
0.5
SW
20
0.5
SW
19
0.9
SW
13
0.7
SW
12
0.5
SW
16
0.8
SW
18
1.3
WSW
16
1.5
WSW
15
1.7
WSW
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
292
1465
1915
1384
1101
987
682
829
1519
1624
1264
419
186
175
253
149
119
405
822
1056
1607
Wind (km/h)
10
NNE
5
WSW
15
NNE
15
N
20
NNW
25
N
45
NW
30
WNW
20
W
30
WSW
25
SW
30
SW
20
SW
20
WSW
20
WSW
15
WSW
15
SW
5
W
10
NNW
5
SSE
15
NNE
Wind State
cross-off
glassy
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-on
off
High Tide
2:00PM0.73m
1:53AM0.64m
2:34PM0.75m
2:40AM0.67m
3:06PM0.77m
3:24AM0.70m
3:38PM0.77m
4:06AM0.72m
4:09PM0.77m
4:50AM0.74m
4:43PM0.77m
5:35AM0.75m
5:19PM0.76m
Low Tide
8:11PM0.27m
8:04AM0.16m
8:48PM0.22m
8:45AM0.16m
9:23PM0.18m
9:24AM0.17m
9:57PM0.13m
10:03AM0.19m
10:32PM0.10m
10:43AM0.21m
11:10PM0.07m
11:26AM0.24m
11:52PM0.05m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
light rain
mod rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
7:15
7:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
5:31
5:32
 mm
1
4
6
7
13
1
1
1
Temp °C
11
13
12
14
16
13
11
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
10
11
10
Feels °C
8
11
8
9
11
7
2
5
6
7
7
6
7
8
8
9
9
10
9
9
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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