Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 29 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 29 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 1 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 5 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 6,617 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Mon 31st Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 14s
Best Surf 1AM (Tue 1st Sep)6ft (1.9m) 17s
Most Powerful10PM (Sat 5th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at the charts for the Cape Paterson region. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead. The next week and a half is mostly a write-off, with messy, choppy conditions and strong winds dominating the picture. We’re looking at a long, frustrating gap of poor surf before anything decent comes into play.

The water temperature is sitting at 57°F, which is about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year. It’s noticeable, but not freakish.

Let’s break it down. The first few days are a total loss. Saturday afternoon the 29th kicks off with cloudy skies and a 12 mph cross-onshore wind from the WSW. Swell is at 5 feet from the WSW with a 14-second period, but the energy is weak (994) and the wind is just chopping it all up. Sunday and Monday hold similar junk – 6 feet to 6 feet swell, but always cross-onshore and poor. There’s a flicker of hope on Monday afternoon with a “marginal” rating, but it’s only a 1 out of 10, so don’t get excited.

Tuesday the 1st of September is a weird one. The wind swings cross-offshore, and the surf is clean, but the wind is a 25 mph strong breeze. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddling. The swell drops to 5 – 5 feet, and the energy is moderate (854-1149), but it’s just too wild for a comfortable session.

Then Wednesday the 2nd sees a jump in swell to 8 – 8 feet from the WSW, with energy climbing into the strong range (3012-3304). The wind is still a problem, though, and it’s rated as marginal at best. Thursday the 3rd is a big, messy mess with 10 feet swell and a fresh breeze making it lumpy and blown out.

The first real standout doesn’t appear until Friday, September 4th, in the afternoon. This is the best this forecast has to offer. The swell is a solid 7 feet from the WSW, with a long 15-second period, and the energy is strong (2111). The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-offshore breeze from the NNW, making for clean, lined-up waves. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The only downside is that Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, and a long-period swell like this can sometimes break a bit too straight on the beach, but the reef will handle it well. Crowds are possible here, so be prepared for some company.

After that, Saturday the 5th is a mess again with 13 feet windswell and a 9-second period under a strong breeze, and it just gets worse from there. The whole second week is a mix of big, lumpy, and cross-onshore days. There’s another promising window much later, around Saturday, September 12th, in the morning. The swell is a solid 10 feet from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, and the wind is a slight 3 mph cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. That’s clean and powerful. The energy is very strong (5051), making this one for experienced surfers. It’s a long way out, though, so take that forecast with a grain of salt.

So, to sum it up: suffer through the junk until the afternoon of Friday, September 4th, for the best clean, powerful swell in the first week. The second week is a gamble, but the morning of Saturday, September 12th, looks promising if you’re an expert looking for a big, clean groundswell.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning).

Sat
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
4
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
WSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.9
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.6
W
10
2.4
WSW
14
2.5
WSW
16
3
WSW
15
3
WSW
14
3
WSW
14
3
SW
14
2.5
SW
15
2.2
WSW
15
1.8
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
934
700
1129
1077
1261
1459
1307
2091
1149
816
480
2374
3304
4132
3773
3772
3243
2662
2111
1340
Wind (km/h)
20
WSW
20
W
20
W
20
WSW
20
WSW
20
W
15
W
15
N
40
NNW
40
NW
35
WNW
25
W
25
WNW
40
NW
35
WNW
35
WSW
25
W
25
NW
15
NNW
30
N
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
00:47AM0.64m
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
3:41PM0.78m
4:32AM0.80m
4:18PM0.78m
Low Tide
6:55PM0.28m
6:59AM0.19m
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
8:27AM0.18m
8:49PM0.10m
9:07AM0.18m
9:26PM0.06m
9:47AM0.19m
10:04PM0.03m
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
cloud
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
mod rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:43
6:41
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
 mm
1
2
6
Temp °C
11
11
11
11
10
11
11
11
18
19
16
13
14
13
13
12
12
14
16
17
Feels °C
7
7
7
7
6
7
8
9
10
11
9
7
9
6
6
5
5
10
13
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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