Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 8,591 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 03) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for the Cape Paterson region over the next couple of weeks.
We've got a pretty wild ride ahead, with a lot of wind and swell to start, but there's a real gem hiding in the second week if you're patient. The early part of the forecast is a write-off for anything decent, with strong winds and messy conditions. Things start to clean up around the 11th, with a couple of standout sessions.
The first real sign of life hits on Wednesday, September 11th. That morning, Cape Paterson (a beach and reef setup, advanced only) will see a clean 6 ft swell from the SW, with a light N wind giving us a cross-off breeze. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 57°F, and the combined swell energy is moderate at 1380. This is a real window of opportunity for the experienced crew. The afternoon goes glassy, with a 5 ft SW swell – that's some proper clean, small-wave fun.
Then, the real standout. Sunday, September 13th, is the pick of the bunch. The morning has a clean 5 ft swell from the WSW with a light offshore NE breeze at 6 mph. The afternoon is even better – glassy conditions with 5 ft of WSW swell. The combined energy is moderate (1253). This is a proper session for the advanced surfer, super clean, with that long-period groundswell (16-17 seconds) wrapping in nicely. The longer period means it'll be better shaped and have more energy, but it might be a bit straight for the beach break, so keep that in mind.
Don't get too excited about Monday the 14th morning – it's a solid 10 ft from the SW with a clean cross-off breeze, but that's a lot of water moving. The combined energy hits 5338, which is strong. This is for experts only, and even then, it's a big call. The afternoon turns messy with a cross-on wind.
The 15th and 16th offer some OK waves in the 7 ft range, but the wind is never quite right, so they're just fallback options.
Overall, if you can wait, the 11th and 13th are your best bets. The 13th is the true standout – clean, glassy, and not too big. The rest of the window is a mix of strong wind, big messy swell, or just poor conditions. Hang in there, the good stuff is coming.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Fri afternoon, near gales from the WNW by Sat morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Sat afternoon, light winds from the WNW by Mon night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2271 | 2412 | 4463 | 5921 | 5868 | 4963 | 4213 | 3158 | 1588 | 3769 | 2910 | 2807 | 1780 | 795 | 414 | 237 | 838 | 817 | 2162 | 1431 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | | | |  | | |  |  | |  | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — |
 | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — |
mm | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 2271 | 2412 | 1147 | — | 5868 | 4963 | 4213 | 3158 | 1588 | — | — | 2807 | 1780 | 795 | 414 | 237 | 838 | 657 | 2162 | 1431 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 51 | 21 | 71 | 318 | 817 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | WSW 20 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | — | 267 | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NW 5 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | W 6 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | — | — | — | WSW 4 | SW 6 | — | — | — | WSW 3 |
| kJ | — | 49 | 4463 | 5921 | — | — | — | 24 | 461 | 3769 | 2910 | — | — | — | 32 | 98 | — | — | — | 8 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 114 | 105 | 117 | 117 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 496 | 447 | 117 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 114 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 45 | 105 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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