Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day look at Cape Paterson, and I’m not gonna lie, it’s a real mixed bag. There’s some serious size on the way, but the wind is gonna be a battle for most of it. We’re not looking at a clean start, so we need to wait for the right window.

The water temp is sitting at a pretty standard 57°F for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. Don’t expect a warm one.

The first real standout comes up on Saturday the 15th. After a few days of slop, the morning delivers. We’ve got a solid 7ft groundswell from the SW, and the period is 15 seconds. That’s proper energy (2146 combined energy). Wind is swinging to a glassy S light air at just 3 mph. That’s the magic word: glassy. For an advanced spot like Cape Paterson, this is excellent surf. The sets will be clean, powerful, and lined up, but at 7ft this is for experienced crew only. The break is fairly consistent, but sometimes you’ll have company.

Sunday morning the 16th is your second best call. The swell drops to a still fun 5ft from the SW, but now we’ve got a light offshore breeze from the E at 6 mph. It’s clean and the energy is moderate (1002 combined energy). Perfect for a longer session on a longboard or a fish, and a bit more user-friendly than the day before. This is a decent option for a broader range of surfers.

From Monday the 17th through Thursday the 21st, the swell stays small to mediocre, with heights mostly below 5ft. The winds are cross-off or light, so the conditions are okay for a paddle, but the wave quality is ordinary. Nothing to write home about.

Then it gets wild. From the 22nd onward, we’re looking at a series of strong, messy swells. The wind goes ballistic – think strong to fresh breezes, mostly cross-onshore, and the setups get ugly. The 23rd sees a 13ft SW swell with a short 9-second period, and it’s a total washing machine. The water temp data disappears, but the surf is poor. Honestly, with that much swell and such strong onshore wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

The final few days of the window keep that theme: plenty of size (10ft to 12ft) but the wind is either cross or cross-on, making it lumpy and messy. The combined energy is massive (over 4000 on the 25th and 26th), but without clean wind, it’s just a big, blown-out mess for paddlers.

So, to boil it down: Saturday morning the 15th is the absolute standout – glassy, powerful groundswell for the advanced crew. Sunday morning the 16th is the next best thing, offering clean lines for a wider range of surfers. After that, the window closes hard. Stay tuned, forecasts change.

Rusty.

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