Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 5,596 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.2m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 10th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into what’s coming down the line for Cape Paterson.
Look, straight up, the next week is a frustrating one. We’ve got a lot of juice in the water, especially a big long-period SW groundswell that hits on the 10th and again on the 15th, but the wind is just ruining it. The onshore and cross-onshore wind keeps the surfaces messy and lumpy, plus the tide issues and poor quality scores mean these are days to sit out or go for a fish, not a paddle.
The first real highlight pops up on Sunday, September 13. The morning has a clean 5ft of SW swell (857 combined energy) and a light N cross-off breeze. It’s not huge, but for a sheltered spot like Cape Paterson, that’s clean, lined-up, and actually surfable. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing weird happening there.
A better window opens up on Thursday, September 17. The morning session looks clean with a 6ft SW groundswell (1576 combined energy) and a cross-off breeze. That’s a good combination for this reef and beach setup—plenty of push without getting blown out. The period is 15 seconds, so those waves will have some proper shape and power. Crowds are possible here, so you might have to fight for the good ones.
Then, the real standout. Mark your calendar for Monday, September 21. Afternoon glass-off. That’s the word. A 7ft WSW groundswell with 14-second period, 1579 combined energy, and damn near glassy conditions. That is the pick of the whole 16-day outlook. The wind is a whisper, the swell is pumping, and if you can get out then, you’ll have some of the cleanest, most fun waves on offer.
The following days get messy again with rain and strong cross-off winds, so don’t sleep on that 21st. There’s one more flashing light on Tuesday, September 22 morning with an offshore NNE breeze and clean 6ft swell, but the 21st beats it hands down.
For the second week, things stay active but the window for perfection is narrow. The swell on the 18th is a chunky 10-12ft but it’s short period windswell (8-9 seconds) and cross-shore, so more of a wind-lump than a wave. The 23rd sees another big 10ft SW groundswell roll in, but the rain and moderate cross-onshore wind will smash the quality.
Bottom line: get on the 17th morning, but absolutely don’t miss the glass-off on Monday, September 21 afternoon. That’s your winner.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the NE on Sat night, strong winds from the WSW by Mon afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 9 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 6930 | 4751 | 3499 | 2418 | 1801 | 2021 | 2434 | 2054 | 1716 | 1187 | 857 | 849 | 489 | 323 | 229 | 1575 | 3384 | 3315 | 2523 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | 11:20AM0.70m | 11:34PM0.68m | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | 1:03PM0.74m | 1:37AM0.75m | 1:46PM0.75m | 2:25AM0.78m | 2:25PM0.76m | 3:08AM0.79m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | 4:46AM0.17m | 5:30PM0.25m | 5:53AM0.18m | 6:29PM0.19m | 6:52AM0.18m | 7:20PM0.13m | 7:43AM0.18m | 8:04PM0.09m | 8:28AM0.18m | 8:44PM0.06m | |||||||
 |  | | | | |  | | | |  |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | WSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 6930 | 4751 | 3499 | 2418 | 1801 | 2021 | 2434 | 2054 | 1716 | 1187 | 857 | 849 | 489 | 323 | 229 | — | 177 | 3315 | 2523 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | S 4 | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 15 | 36 | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | WSW 6 | WSW 9 | SW 13 | — | — |
| kJ | 242 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 1575 | 3384 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 81 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 64 | 113 | 117 | 507 | 437 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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