Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 4,075 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Tue 15th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, this is Rusty. Let's get into it.
We’ve got a challenging forecast for the next couple of weeks at Cape Paterson. Honestly, there’s a massive gap at the start with nothing worth paddling out for. The whole first week is a write-off with poor surf quality, and it’s not until Saturday the 12th that we see the first glimmer of something decent.
The first real chance to get wet is Saturday morning, the 12th of September. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the SW with a long period of 16 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The wind is light and cross-off from the NNW, which will keep things clean. The wave energy is moderate (2057), but the combo of size and period might make it a bit straight at the beach, though the reef should handle it. This is the pick of the opening part of the outlook, but don't expect perfection.
From there, it gets messy again. Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are blown out with strong winds, and on Tuesday the 15th we see a massive pulse of energy (6221) with a 10 ft SW swell, but the same onshore wind kills it – that’s strictly for experts if anyone’s crazy enough, and honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddling.
After that, there’s another quiet spell with marginal, choppy conditions until we hit a promising window about a week and a half out. The standout by far is *Cape Paterson* on the morning of Wednesday the 23rd of September. The wind is light and offshore from the ESE, the swell is 6 ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, and the wave energy is solid (1288). It should be clean and well-shaped, with that long period favouring the reef. The water temp is 57°F, which is about average for this time of year.
Then on Thursday the 24th of September morning, there’s an absolute monster of a SW swell (15 ft) predicted, with a short 9-second period, and while the wind is offshore from the NE, it’s simply too big – only for the brave and expert. But later that same afternoon, if the swell drops to 13 ft and the wind goes glassy, it could be a very special, if dangerous, session for the elite crew. Keep an eye on that one, but it's a long way off.
For now, Saturday the 12th morning is your best bet for a clean paddle, and the 23rd of September looks like the real gem if the forecast holds.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Mon afternoon, light winds from the SW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 7 | WSW 8 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4751 | 3499 | 2418 | 1801 | 2021 | 2434 | 2054 | 1609 | 1306 | 763 | 684 | 619 | 529 | 326 | 949 | 4075 | 3517 | 2883 | 2860 | 3178 | 2293 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | 11:20AM0.70m | 11:34PM0.68m | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | 1:03PM0.74m | 1:37AM0.75m | 1:46PM0.75m | 2:25AM0.78m | 2:25PM0.76m | 3:08AM0.79m | 3:02PM0.76m | 3:48AM0.79m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:19PM0.30m | 4:46AM0.17m | 5:30PM0.25m | 5:53AM0.18m | 6:29PM0.19m | 6:52AM0.18m | 7:20PM0.13m | 7:43AM0.18m | 8:04PM0.09m | 8:28AM0.18m | 8:44PM0.06m | 9:08AM0.19m | 9:23PM0.06m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 4751 | 3499 | 2418 | 1801 | 2021 | 2434 | 2054 | 1609 | 1306 | 763 | 684 | 619 | 529 | 36 | 79 | 674 | 3517 | 2883 | 2860 | 3178 | 2293 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | SSW 4 | — | — | — | — | W 5 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 17 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | NW 4 | NW 5 | W 5 | WSW 10 | WSW 7 | WSW 8 | SW 16 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 17 | 54 | 27 | 235 | 326 | 949 | 4075 | 2704 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 45 | 346 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 114 | 54 | 117 | 507 | 81 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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