
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 9,663 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the Cape Paterson region over the next couple of weeks.
We're in for a bit of a slow start, with the first week looking pretty average for the most part. The swell is around, but the wind just isn't playing ball. It's going to be a wait for the standout days, which are a little further out.
The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.
Okay, let's get into it. The first real chance of a decent surf doesn't come up until Saturday, August 1st. The morning is looking clean with a light cross-offshore breeze from the north and a 3ft SW swell (12 second period). The combined energy is moderate (546). It's not huge, but the conditions are good. The real winner for that day is the Saturday afternoon. We're looking at a glassy session with a 5ft SW swell pushing in at a very long 18 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (1488), and the water is like glass. This is a nice one for the weekend warriors.
Then, after a bit of a blowy patch, we get another cracker on Thursday, August 6th. The afternoon is looking glassy again with a smaller 3ft SW swell, but the period is a massive 20 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (1031). This is pure, clean groundswell. It'll be perfect for the reef and point setups, but at a beach break like Cape Paterson, that long period might make the waves a bit straight. Still, for the patient surfer, the conditions are pristine.
The best of the whole outlook, in my opinion, is Friday, August 7th. The morning session has a clean offshore wind from the NE, a solid 6ft SW swell, and a very long 18 second period. The combined energy is strong (1892). The waves will have power and shape, with the wind keeping them glassy. The afternoon follows up with a clean cross-offshore breeze and a 5ft SW swell, also with an 18 second period and strong energy (1508). This is the standout period. It's a bit of a wait, but it's worth it.
There are a few other days with clean conditions, like Saturday, August 8th, with a glassy morning and a 4ft SW swell (15 second period), but the energy is a bit weaker (690). It's a good option but not the main event.
For the rest of the outlook, the wind is mostly onshore, cross-onshore, or just too strong, making for messy conditions. The swell is often big, over 7ft, and the wind is howling, so the paddle out will be a mission. Some of those days with strong winds and big swell look more interesting for the kite surfers than for a paddle session.
If you're a beginner, keep an eye on those days with swell over 5ft—they'll be a challenge. And anything over 8ft is strictly for the experts.
So, to sum it up: the first few days are a write-off. Aim for the glassy conditions on Saturday afternoon, August 1st, and the clean, powerful groundswell on Friday, August 7th. That Friday is the one to circle on the calendar.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Wed morning, calm by Fri afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the WNW by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
11000 | 7668 | 3469 | 1521 | 1034 | 772 | 455 | 383 | 293 | 264 | 1367 | 1938 | 1523 | 1224 | 974 | 1413 | 669 | 3532 | 1517 | 974 | 467 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | 2:00PM0.73m | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | 7:21AM0.16m | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | ||||||||
7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | |
— | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | |
mm | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | — | WSW 12 | WSW 22 | SW 11 |
— | — | — | 1521 | 1034 | 772 | 455 | 383 | 293 | 264 | 1367 | 1938 | 1523 | 1224 | 974 | 1413 | 537 | — | 1517 | 45 | 467 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | W 20 | WSW 6 | — | — | — | — | SW 20 |
— | — | — | — | — | 22 | 18 | 62 | 96 | 249 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 70 | — | — | — | — | 196 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 12 | SW 20 | S 12 | SE 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 99 | 3 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | — | WSW 11 | — |
11000 | 7668 | 3469 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 669 | 3532 | — | 974 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 284 | 346 | 113 | 54 | 81 | 49 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 119 | 227 | 114 | 422 | 244 | 126 | 126 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










