Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. This outlook is a bit of a mixed bag, with a promising start and a big, powerful pulse way out at the end. Don’t get too excited about the middle, though. There’s a real lull for a few days that you’ll want to plan around.

First thing’s first, we’re looking at Cape Paterson. It’s a beach and reef set-up, and it’s sheltered, so it can handle some size but it’s picky about the wind. The water’s sitting at about 56°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

The best action kicks off this Saturday morning, the 15th. The swell is a solid 8ft from the southwest, with a long 15-second period. But the real kicker is the wind – it’s dead glassy. That’s a major plus, and it should be clean as a whistle. The energy is up there too, with a combined reading of 2338. This is the standout of the first week, and for experienced surfers, it’s going to be firing. Just remember, with 8ft on the face, it’s not one for the beginners.

Sunday the 16th will be okay, but it’s a step down. The swell drops to around 5ft with a cross-off breeze, so it’ll be clean, but lacking that punch. Monday and Tuesday drop further, around 4ft, and the cross-off winds keep things tidy, but it’s pretty weak out there.

Then we hit a dead spot. From Wednesday the 19th through to Friday the 21st, there’s just nothing doing. Swell drops below 3ft, the quality is poor, and a couple of those days have rain and building winds. It’s a write-off, plain and simple.

The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd gets blown out. A strong westerly swell rolls in, but it’s accompanied by strong onshore and cross-onshore winds, making it choppy and messy. For a spot like this, with a sheltered aspect, it’s not looking good for a paddle. Honestly, with that wind and the size, it might be more interesting for the kite crew than us.

Now, here’s the big one. On Monday the 24th, we’ve got a serious pulse of swell coming through. We’re talking 12ft from the southwest, with a long 13-second period in the morning. The combined energy is massive, reading 5025. The wind is a slight cross-off and it’s clean. This is a day for experts only. That size is serious, and it’s going to be a freight train. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not locked in, but if it eventuates, it’s the best on offer by a long way. The afternoon sees the period stretch out to 17 seconds, which is very long. That kind of swell can be tricky at a beach break, breaking too straight, but the reef sections should be holding some proper shape.

After that, Tuesday the 25th is still decent – 6ft of SW swell with clean conditions, but it’s a step back from the big day. And then the window just fades away. From the 26th onwards, it's back to small, weak, and often wind-affected, with nothing worth getting out of bed for until the 29th, which is just a small, clean leftover.

So, to wrap it up: hit Saturday the 15th for clean, fun waves. But the true standout, the one to circle on the calendar, is Monday the 24th. It’s going to be big, powerful and, for the experts, absolutely epic. Until then, keep the board waxed and wait for that window.

Rusty.

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