Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – if you’re hanging for a surf at Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks, you’re gonna need a lot of patience. The forecast is a real mixed bag, with a lot of wind and messy conditions to wade through before we get any proper windows.

We start off pretty grim. This Saturday (July 11th) and Sunday (July 12th) are write-offs. Saturday’s got a 4ft WSW swell but the wind is howling at 25 mph, making it a total mess. Sunday is even worse – a massive 13ft to 15ft swell (combined energy of 5093 to 5399) but with near-gale winds, it’s unsurfable. That carries on through Monday and Tuesday (July 13th and 14th). We’re talking solid 12ft to 13ft groundswell (periods of 15 to 16 seconds, so long lines), but the wind is either howling cross or cross-onshore at 25 to 31 mph. It’s a washing machine out there. The wave energy is massive (6148 to 7248), but it’s all for nothing.

Wednesday (July 15th) sees the swell drop to 8ft, but we’re still stuck with a moderate cross-onshore wind and a choppy surface. It’s a marginal call at best.

Finally, we get a bit of relief. Thursday morning (July 16th) is the first real standout. We’ve got a clean 6ft WSW swell with a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the NNW. The combined energy is moderate (1120), and the conditions are clean. Cape Paterson (a beach and reef setup) should have some fun, lined-up waves. This is the best bet for the early part of the outlook.

Friday morning (July 17th) is another cracker. The swell holds at 7ft from the SW, with a nice long period of 16 seconds. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the north, making for clean conditions. The combined energy is strong (2328). This is a solid session for experienced surfers.

Saturday (July 18th) stays good, with a cleaner 5ft SW swell and light offshore winds in the morning, going glassy in the afternoon. Nice.

After that, the swell backs off a bit through to Wednesday (July 22nd), with small, clean waves in the 2ft to 6ft range but nothing to write home about.

Now, the real story is way out at the end of the forecast. Thursday, July 23rd, is the standout. We’re looking at a solid 10ft WSW groundswell with a long 16-second period. The wind is light offshore in the morning, going to glassy in the afternoon. The combined energy is very strong (4258). This is big, powerful swell for experts only. It’s two weeks away, so take it with a grain of salt, but if it holds, Cape Paterson will be pumping.

The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so nothing special there.

There’s a long gap of poor surf at the start – about 4 days of proper rubbish. Once we get past that, there are a few good windows, but you’ll be working for it. Keep an eye on that July 23rd date.

Rusty.

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