
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 10,331 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 10 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 10th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Cape Paterson. It’s a bit of a bumpy ride ahead, with a big stormy spell right in the middle that’s gonna mess things up. But we’ve got a couple of windows to get excited about, so let’s break it down.
First up, Friday the 10th is your bright spot. It’s a beach and reef setup, so it needs that right swell direction. Friday morning we’ve got a solid 5ft swell out of the WSW, with a very long period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy, and it’s gonna have some serious push (combined energy of 1069). The wind is a light cross-off from the north at 6 mph, so the face should be clean. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual. Friday afternoon gets even better for a session: the wind drops to glassy, 0 mph from the southeast, with a slightly smaller but still solid 5ft swell from the SW. This is the pick of the whole forecast. The wave comment says “very good” and “good” conditions, so get out there. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea.
Friday the 10th is the clear standout. After that, things get messy quickly.
Saturday the 11th starts clean but the wind picks up to 12 mph in the morning, and then a fresh 22 mph breeze in the afternoon turns the 3ft to 4ft swell into a cross-off chop. It’s surfable but not worth burning a weekend pass for.
Then from Sunday the 12th all the way through to Thursday the 17th, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a massive storm swell – 13ft to 15ft from Sunday to Tuesday – with near gale-force winds howling from the NW and WNW. That’s 31 mph cross-shore and cross-onshore wind. The combined energy spikes to over 12,000 on Sunday and Monday, which is insane. The wave comment says “poor” for all those sessions. This is not for paddle surfing; this is a kite-boarder’s dream, or for the absolute experts with a death wish. The period is 12 to 16 seconds, so it’s lumpy, messy, and dangerous. I’d stay well clear.
Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th see the swell drop to 5ft to 8ft, but the wind is still cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the wave comment says “marginal.” The energy is still moderate (1000-2200), but it’s not going to be clean. You’d be scratching for a half-decent wave.
Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th offer a glimmer. The swell is 5ft to 6ft from the WSW, with a period of 13 to 16 seconds. The wind is light to moderate cross-off from the NNW, so it’s clean. The wave comment is still “marginal,” but it’s a damn sight better than the storm. There’s some energy there (800-1400), and the setup is clean. Saturday the 18th morning is the pick of this second window, with a solid 6ft and clean conditions.
After that, from Sunday the 19th onwards, the swell drops right off. We’re into 2ft to 3ft waves, with long periods (12-17 seconds) but very little energy (200-400). The wind is offshore or light, so it’s clean, but there’s just not enough wave to do much on. The wave comment says “surfable” but “ordinary.” It’s a flat spell for the last week of the forecast.
So, the bottom line: Friday the 10th is your day. Get out there for the morning glass-off or the afternoon glassy session. That’s the standout. The rest of the first week is a stormy mess, and the second week is flat and clean but too small. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a one-hit wonder.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 28mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, near gales from the WNW by Sat night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Mon afternoon, light winds from the NW by Thu morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fri 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
967 | 752 | 561 | 419 | 422 | 3529 | 6064 | 5096 | 7095 | 6859 | 10331 | 7425 | 5766 | 3622 | 2212 | 1906 | 1427 | 1187 | 1170 | 1325 | 1531 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | |
5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | 5:15 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | — | 5 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 10 | — | — | — | — | WSW 15 | — | — | — | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 |
967 | 752 | 561 | 419 | 422 | — | — | — | — | 6859 | — | — | — | 3622 | 2212 | 1906 | 1427 | 1187 | 1170 | 1325 | 1531 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SE 8 | SE 8 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 3 | 3 | 290 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | E 13 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 3 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | NW 6 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — | NW 4 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 |
— | 3 | 16 | 33 | 101 | 3529 | 6064 | 5096 | 7095 | 148 | 10331 | 7425 | 5766 | — | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 120 | 447 | 423 | 581 | 227 | 141 | 117 | 114 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











