Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 15 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5° C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 6,494 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Sun 16th Aug)6ft (1.8m) 14s
Best Surf 4AM (Sun 16th Aug)6ft (1.8m) 14s
Most Powerful 7AM (Sat 22nd Aug)11ft (3.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, Rusty here. Let's get into it for Cape Paterson. This is a spot that's pretty sheltered and needs a good SW swell to really fire, so we're looking at a bit of a waiting game here. The water's sitting at 56°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year—nothing to complain about on that front.

The standout window is the first session, Saturday morning, the 15th. We've got a solid 8ft SW groundswell with a long 15-second period, and the energy is pumping at 2338—that's strong stuff. The wind is glassy from the WSW, which is a rare treat here. That combo will deliver clean, powerful waves, but this is an advanced-only affair. The swell is solid, the period is long, so it'll be a bit wally and best handled by those who know what they're doing. It's a beach and reef setup, so that long period groundswell might make it a bit tricky at the beach, but the reef should handle it nicely.

The Sunday morning, the 16th, is also worth a look. The swell has dropped to 5ft, still from the SW with a 14-second period, and glassy NE wind. The energy is moderate at 1064, so it's a step down but still clean and fun. A good option for a slightly more relaxed session.

After that, things get pretty ordinary. There's a big gap of poor surf from Monday the 17th through to Friday the 21st, with small, choppy conditions and cross-onshore winds. You'll be fighting for scraps.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd see a massive jump in energy—we're talking 10 to 12ft SW swell, with huge energy readings like 7482 and 6135. But the wind is onshore or cross, making it messy and ugly. The swell is way too big for this spot, and it's just not going to be clean. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one.

The second week opens with a bit of hope on Friday the 28th. An 12ft SSW swell rolls in with glassy wind and a 10-second period. The energy is strong at 2870, but the period is short, so it's a bit of a windswell, and it's still big—only for experts. The glassy conditions will make it clean, but it's a heavy one.

Then, on the 30th of August, Sunday morning, we get a nice clean-up. A 5ft SW swell with a long 16-second period, light offshore wind, and a clean look. The energy is 1188, so it's moderate but well-shaped. That's a good one for the calendar.

Overall, the best surf on offer is that Saturday morning, the 15th, for the experienced crew. Keep an eye on the 30th as a promising option, but it's a bit further out, so don't bank on it just yet.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Tue morning, fresh winds from the NNW by Wed night).

Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
2
2
2
0
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
1.9
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.5
WSW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.3
WSW
14
1.2
SW
14
0.9
WSW
14
0.8
WSW
14
0.8
WSW
15
0.8
WSW
14
0.8
WSW
13
1
WSW
13
1
WSW
13
0.9
WSW
16
1.4
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2338
2146
1426
988
988
799
777
1184
1088
701
589
328
257
275
268
201
317
357
419
818
2237
Wind (km/h)
5
W
10
S
15
SE
5
E
15
SSE
15
E
15
E
30
ESE
20
ENE
10
ENE
20
ESE
15
NE
25
NNE
20
N
30
NNW
25
NW
20
W
20
NNW
30
NNW
40
NW
35
WSW
Wind State
glassy
cross-on
cross
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
High Tide
1:33PM0.78m
1:47AM0.74m
2:17PM0.80m
2:42AM0.76m
2:57PM0.80m
3:31AM0.77m
3:35PM0.80m
4:16AM0.77m
4:11PM0.78m
4:58AM0.75m
4:46PM0.76m
5:39AM0.72m
5:20PM0.73m
Low Tide
7:44PM0.17m
7:58AM0.11m
8:33PM0.12m
8:47AM0.13m
9:17PM0.08m
9:31AM0.16m
9:57PM0.06m
10:12AM0.19m
10:36PM0.06m
10:50AM0.23m
11:13PM0.08m
11:28AM0.27m
11:51PM0.11m
cloud
cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:03
7:03
7:01
7:01
6:58
6:58
6:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:39
5:39
5:40
5:42
5:43
5:44
5:45
 mm
1
7
7
15
Temp °C
13
13
13
12
12
12
15
14
13
16
17
17
17
16
15
13
13
12
14
15
10
Feels °C
11
9
8
10
9
8
10
8
9
14
12
13
12
11
12
8
9
8
7
7
2
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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