Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 23 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,070 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let's talk that in old money. It's a bit of a mixed bag down at Cape Paterson over the next stretch, but there are a few windows of clean fun if you play it right.
Right now, we're looking at a bit of a flat and windy spell to kick things off. It's not until Monday afternoon the 19th that we see our first real pulse of rideable swell. But with strong cross-shore winds, it's not going to be pretty. The best call is to sit tight. The first proper highlight looks to be on Tuesday morning, the 20th of August. The sun's out, we've got a light offshore wind from the NE, and that's making all the difference for a clean, groomed surface. The swell will be a playful 4ft from the WSW with good energy (789). It's not a huge day, but the conditions will be so crisp you'll be reeling. That's the one to circle for a session.
Things get a bit rowdy after that. We see a building trend but the winds swing messy, going cross and even onshore. On Saturday the 24th, the swell really starts to push up over 7ft, hitting 10ft by Sunday the 25th. The combined wave energy is massive – we're talking a beast with a reading of 3637 on the Sunday morning. But that deep, powerful 16-second groundswell from the WSW is going to be fighting a bad wind, making it fat, choppy and borderline unruly. For the experienced crew on a good reef, maybe there's something there, but for most of us, that's a skip.
After that dirty spell, we get a second wind. The standout of the whole outlook lands on Monday afternoon the 26th. The wind shifts to a light NNE, turns offshore, and we get a solid 6ft SW groundswell (14 seconds, 1682 energy). That's going to produce some long, clean lines. This is the pick of the entire run.
Later on, the last good chance of the window is on Saturday the 31st of August. We get an afternoon pulse of 8ft from the WSW with a very short period of just 8 seconds. A light offshore wind will keep it glassy (1188 energy). That short period means it won't have the grunt, but for the right bank, it could be a fun, clean option to end the stretch on. Overall, the water is sitting pretty average for this time of year.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, fresh winds from the N by Wed afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 811 | 777 | 1271 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 282 | 257 | 291 | 268 | 204 | 210 | 317 | 819 | 630 | 2329 | 2813 | 2805 | 4070 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | on | cross |
High Tide | 2:42AM0.76m | 2:57PM0.80m | 3:31AM0.77m | 3:35PM0.80m | 4:16AM0.77m | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:47AM0.13m | 9:17PM0.08m | 9:31AM0.16m | 9:57PM0.06m | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | |||||||
 |  | | |  | |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | |
 | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 |
| kJ | 811 | 777 | 1271 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 282 | 257 | 291 | 268 | 204 | 198 | 317 | 819 | 630 | 2329 | 2813 | 2805 | 4070 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 18 | WSW 15 | WSW 18 | — | — | WSW 18 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 88 | — | 127 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 161 | 138 | 150 | 403 | 553 | — | — | 826 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | — | ESE 4 | — | — | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | E 8 | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 5 | 4 | — | 332 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 3 | E 4 | E 5 | SE 6 | NE 2 | N 3 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | W 6 | W 7 | W 8 | NW 3 | WSW 11 | NW 4 | NW 4 | — | — |
| kJ | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 61 | 160 | 210 | 223 | 6 | 586 | 13 | 12 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 20 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 38 | 53 | 52 | 5 | 41 | 5 | 23 | 113 | 35 | 81 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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