Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 9s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 7,240 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 27 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 11s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Tue 28th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here again, but for the imperial crew. Cape Paterson is having a rough stretch, so let’s get into it.
From Wednesday the 22nd through Sunday the 26th, it’s mostly a bust. The wind is screaming from the WSW to W, driving strong cross-onshore conditions that tear up the swell. Wave heights range from about 3ft to a solid 12ft, with the combined energy hitting anywhere from 479 to over 5000—so there’s plenty of power—but the waves are just lumpy and messy. The swell periods are 12 to 15 seconds, so it’s got some push, but not for paddle surfing. Anything over 5ft is too big for beginners, and over 8ft is expert-only. If you kite, you might find something fun, but for a surfboard, it’s a pass.
Monday the 27th starts to look a bit better. A lighter NW breeze goes cross-offshore, with the swell dropping to around 4ft to 4ft from the SW (11-second period). Combined energy is moderate at 317 to 418, and the water cleans up nicely. Still, it’s only marginal and not great for scoring.
The standout is Tuesday the 28th morning. We’ve got a light NNW offshore breeze with a solid 12ft SW swell at a 9-second period. The combined energy is a strong 2085, and the report calls it excellent for experienced surfers. That’s your window if you’re advanced—clean, powerful, and head-high plus. Afternoon gets a sea breeze from the SE with a 13ft swell, making it lumpy again.
From Wednesday the 29th into early August, the swell settles down to a much friendlier 4ft to 5ft, mostly from the SW with longer periods (13 to 18 seconds). Those longer-period groundswells mean better shape and more power per wave, with longer lulls. The wind stays offshore from the east or northeast, so the surf stays clean. Combined energy runs from 511 to 1282, which is moderate. It’s not epic, but it’s surfable. Crowds can be around sometimes at this break.
The end of the run, Saturday the 1st of August, is glassy with barely a ripple on the water, but the swell is tiny at 3ft to 4ft from the SW with a 14-second period. Clean, but small. Sunday the 2nd has a north wind picking up, and by Monday the 3rd, we’re into strong offshore winds with only 3ft to 3ft of swell.
Best bet: Tuesday the 28th morning is your highlight—big, clean, offshore, and powerful. After that, the mornings from the 29th through the 1st of August offer clean, smaller surf for a more relaxed session.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the WNW by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | W 7 | WSW 12 | WSW 7 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 534 | 247 | 1018 | 610 | 3582 | 5012 | 2970 | 5370 | 4723 | 2076 | 2405 | 2024 | 1001 | 645 | 467 | 322 | 263 | 418 | 2799 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | ||||||
 |  |  |  | |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |  | |
 | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | — | — | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | E 10 | E 10 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 11 | SW 10 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | — |
| kJ | 534 | 247 | 2 | 2 | 1175 | — | — | — | — | 485 | 268 | 228 | 1001 | 645 | 467 | 322 | 263 | 418 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | — | — |
| kJ | 11 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 25 | 24 | 54 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | W 7 | WSW 12 | WSW 7 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SSW 12 | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 12 |
| kJ | 39 | 232 | 1018 | 610 | 3582 | 5012 | 2970 | 5370 | 4723 | 2076 | 2405 | 2024 | 496 | — | — | 5 | 39 | 99 | 2799 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 105 | 113 | 114 | 117 | 117 | 421 | 117 | 117 | 421 | 114 | 117 | 81 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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