Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 7 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with 6,151 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 7 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 07) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 21s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Mon 7th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Mon 7th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Fri 4th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here.
Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next little while is gonna be a write-off for Cape Paterson. We’re looking at a big fat gap of nothing surfable for the first nine days. The swell is big but the wind is just murdering it. From Wednesday the 2nd right through to Thursday the 10th, it’s mostly cross-on or onshore gales, with wave heights pushing 7ft to 16ft and combined energy readings between 2479 and 6126 – plenty of power, but blown out and choppy. This is advanced territory when the swell is that size, and with the wind howling, it’s more a kite surfer’s playground than a paddle zone.
Then Friday the 11th rolls around, and mate, that’s your window. The morning has a solid 6ft of SW groundswell at 15 seconds, clean as a whistle with a light NNW cross-offshore breeze. Combined energy sits at 1237 – moderate but well-shaped. The water temp is 57°, about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year, so not bad for an early spring dip. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, sheltered from the SW, and with this long-period groundswell, the reef and points will handle it better than the beach. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue here, so you might have a few mates out, but with conditions this clean, it’s worth it. The afternoon goes glassy – 5ft SW, dead calm, 14-second period – lovely clean lines for a cruisy session.
Saturday the 12th starts clean again early, but the wind jumps to a strong NNW breeze, so that window closes fast. After that, we’re back into marginal to poor conditions right through to the end of the run on the 17th, with onshores and lumpy cross-chop.
So bottom line: wait for Friday the 11th of September. That’s your one true standout – don’t sleep on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 7°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sat morning, calm by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | W 15 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2479 | 2308 | 2911 | 4996 | 5834 | 6151 | 4963 | 4678 | 3158 | 5421 | 5686 | 3907 | 2682 | 1647 | 843 | 933 | 253 | 785 | 926 | 2162 | 1571 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  | | |  |  |  | | | | |  | | |  | | | | |
 | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — |
 | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 22 | SW 7 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 2479 | 2271 | 1389 | — | — | 6151 | 4963 | 4678 | 3158 | — | — | — | 2682 | 1647 | 843 | 18 | 200 | 785 | 568 | 2162 | 1571 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 22 | WSW 13 | SW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 12 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 63 | 25 | 18 | 253 | 400 | 926 | 438 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 73 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | W 15 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | — | — | NW 3 | WSW 12 | SSW 7 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 2308 | 2911 | 4996 | 5834 | — | — | — | 27 | 5421 | 5686 | 3907 | — | — | 2 | 933 | 123 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 41 | 114 | 105 | 117 | 117 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 289 | 447 | 493 | 117 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 285 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 113 | 126 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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