Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 26 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, WSW swell with 3,119 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, grab a coffee and settle in, 'cause there's a bit to unpack here. We're looking at Cape Paterson, and honestly, it's a tough stretch for the next couple of weeks. This is a sheltered spot, and it needs everything to line up just right to work its magic. The immediate outlook is pretty grim, so we're going to be patient.
The first few days are a write-off. Thursday the 27th of August has a bit of swell, but the wind is all over the place, and the conditions are just ordinary. From there, it's a long, flat, and choppy run. Friday the 28th has some size, but it's a messy cross-shore, and it's mostly blown out. We're looking at a solid 8 to 9 day stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The wind is relentless, mostly cross-on or cross-shore, and it's just making a mess of everything. The swell energy is there, but it's not translating into anything rideable with the wind we've got.
The first real spark of hope pops up on Monday the 31st of August. The morning is still a bit average, but the afternoon gets interesting. The wind drops to almost nothing, just a light cross-on breeze, and there's a solid 5ft groundswell from the SW wrapping in. The energy is moderate to strong (1846), with a long 14-second period. It's not perfect, but it's the first window of cleaner, more manageable surf. The water is about average for this time of year.
Now, hold onto your board, because the real standout, and the only one I'd get excited about, is a long way off. On the 11th of September, a Friday morning, we get a brief window of absolute magic. The wind is light and cross-off from the north, turning the ocean clean. The swell is a solid 10ft from the WSW, with a very long, powerful 17-second period. The combined energy is huge (9925). This is proper groundswell, and for a point and reef setup like Cape Paterson, that's the dream. The forecast says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and that's spot on. This is the one to circle on the calendar, but remember, it's nearly two weeks out, so fingers crossed it holds.
Before that, there's a big, messy episode from the 4th to the 9th of September. The swell is huge, over 13ft, but the wind is howling and the conditions are junk. It's going to be a full-on, washed-out mess. This is a beach and reef setup, so with that much swell and strong wind, it might actually be more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers.
So, to sum it up: the next week and a half is a dud. The only true highlight is that Friday the 11th of September morning. If you're an experienced surfer and you can wait, that's the date. Otherwise, it's a waiting game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | SW 22 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
365 | 124 | 480 | 1188 | 3119 | 2075 | 1191 | 934 | 700 | 1018 | 925 | 1280 | 1521 | 1380 | 2140 | 1164 | 939 | 1939 | 2557 | 2598 | 1489 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | 1:58PM0.74m | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | 7:45AM0.18m | 8:13PM0.16m | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | ||||||||
6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | |
— | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 14 | WSW 10 |
365 | 121 | 458 | 1188 | 3119 | 2075 | 1191 | 934 | 700 | 1018 | 925 | 1280 | 1521 | 1380 | 2140 | 1164 | 939 | 1939 | — | 904 | 961 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 5 | SW 12 | WSW 19 | WSW 18 | ESE 10 | — | — | W 24 | SW 22 | SW 20 | SW 20 | — | WSW 22 | SW 19 | — | — | — | WSW 10 | — | — | — |
12 | 124 | 480 | 1044 | 9 | — | — | 11 | 18 | 98 | 98 | — | 46 | 450 | — | — | — | 195 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 22 | SE 11 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
21 | 118 | 5 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | W 3 | — | — | — | SSW 6 | SW 5 | SW 5 | SW 6 | — | — | SW 5 | — | — | — | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 10 |
— | 1 | — | — | — | 24 | 43 | 55 | 122 | — | — | 36 | — | — | — | 60 | 102 | 38 | 2557 | 2598 | 1489 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 52 | 23 | 126 | 54 | 23 | 35 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 429 | 105 | 105 | 120 | 54 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











