
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 8,681 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Fri 11th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, Rusty here, checkin’ the Cape Paterson forecast for the next couple weeks. We’ll skip the first few days ‘cause it’s a real dog’s breakfast.
Tuesday afternoon kicks off with a 4ft SW swell and a 12 mph cross-on wind— choppy, messy, not worth wetting a suit. Wednesday and Thursday only get worse with the swell building to 11ft on Wednesday afternoon, but it’s pinned by onshore 18 mph wind that’s blowing the foam off. The water’s sittin’ at 57°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual, so it’s not freezing, but the wind’ll make you forget that.
First real glimmer is Saturday the 12th. Morning brings clean conditions with a light 3 mph cross-off breeze, and a 6ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period. The energy’s up there (1761), and by afternoon it goes glassy— dead flat calm. That’s your window: Saturday, both sessions, for the advanced guys. The break’s a beach and reef number that breaks fairly consistently, but with those long-period pulses, the reef sections will hold the best shape. Crowds are sometimes a thing, but with that glass, expect some company.
Sunday the 13th fades quick. Swell drops to 5ft in the morning with a 15 mph cross-off wind keepin’ it clean-ish, but the energy’s half what it was (979). Afternoon’s a dribbler.
From the 14th through the 18th, it’s mostly poor or marginal. There’s a brief window on the morning of Tuesday the 15th with a 8ft swell and light cross-on winds, but it’s too lumpy to call good. Saturday the 19th brings a big 13ft WSW groundswell (energy 5088), cross-off winds at 15 mph— clean, but that size at Cape Paterson is expert-only territory. Even then, it’s a bit raw.
Now, the real standout: Wednesday the 23rd of September. That morning delivers excellent conditions for experienced surfers. You’ve got a 10ft WSW groundswell (energy 4323), a light 6 mph offshore from the N, and clean lines. The period is a tasty 16 seconds— proper groundswell with loads of push. That’s the pick of the whole run— big, clean, and lined up. Afternoon picks up a light cross-shore, so the morning’s your go.
Bottom line: Saturday the 12th for a smaller, glassy session, and Wednesday the 23rd for the big, clean bomb set. Everything else, you’re just watching the wind win.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the NNW by Sun night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 8 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
874 | 1449 | 1513 | 7250 | 5921 | 4719 | 3458 | 2418 | 1542 | 1692 | 2241 | 1761 | 1567 | 1203 | 979 | 740 | 489 | 313 | 219 | 504 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | 11:20AM0.70m | 11:34PM0.68m | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | 1:03PM0.74m | 1:37AM0.75m | 1:46PM0.75m | 2:25AM0.78m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | 4:46AM0.17m | 5:30PM0.25m | 5:53AM0.18m | 6:29PM0.19m | 6:52AM0.18m | 7:20PM0.13m | 7:43AM0.18m | 8:04PM0.09m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | |
6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
679 | 1449 | 1513 | 4385 | 5921 | 4719 | 3458 | 2418 | 1542 | 1692 | 2241 | 1761 | 1567 | 1203 | 979 | 740 | 489 | 313 | 219 | 99 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 26 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 19 | SW 18 |
874 | 26 | 1448 | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 37 | 80 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 4 | WSW 6 | SW 8 | SW 18 | SSW 7 | SSE 5 | — | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 5 | WSW 8 |
16 | 249 | 1033 | 7250 | 258 | 20 | — | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 24 | 20 | 31 | 107 | 84 | 504 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 114 | 105 | 493 | 1459 | 81 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 54 | 113 | 114 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










