Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with 2,042 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 1.9m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, this is Rusty. We've got a real mixed bag coming up for Cape Paterson. The water's sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year.
We kick things off with a beauty on Saturday the 1st of August. Afternoon glass-off with a clean 5ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds, and the wind is dead calm. The combined energy is a solid 1471, so there's plenty of push. The wave quality is just magic. This is your standout, no question.
Sunday the 2nd keeps the vibe going. Morning is clean, 5ft SW swell, 16 seconds, with a light N cross-off. The energy is still strong at 1390. The afternoon gets a bit more wind, but it's still clean. You'll get waves.
Monday the 3rd is a washout. Strong NW winds and rain make a mess of things. The swell is small and onshore junk. Give it a miss.
Tuesday the 4th is a write-off. We've got a 8ft to 8ft WSW swell, but it's being hammered by onshore gales. It's a messy, blown-out mess. Only for the hardcore, and even then, it's not worth it.
Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are tiny and onshore. The swell drops to 2ft and 2ft, and the wind is straight on it. The energy is weak, around 300-500. It's a flat spell.
Friday the 7th is a return to form. Morning has a clean 5ft WSW groundswell, 16 seconds, with a light NW cross-off. The energy is back up to 1388. It's a great session.
Saturday the 8th is another solid day. Morning is clean with 5ft WSW swell, 16 seconds, and a light NNE cross-off. The energy is 1155. The afternoon is a bit smaller but still clean.
Sunday the 9th gets hammered by a strong NNW wind, up to 28 mph. The swell is small, and it's just messy. Not worth it.
Then we hit a big, chunky period. From Monday the 10th through to Sunday the 16th, we get a serious run of swell. The heights are consistently 8ft to 13ft with combined energy pushing into the 3000s and 7000s. The problem is the wind. It's mostly cross or cross-off, but it's strong, 15-34 mph, so the surface is lumpy and messy. These are big, powerful swells, best for experienced surfers only. The 12th of August afternoon looks interesting, with 8ft WSW swell and a light NNE offshore, making it clean. But the 13th has 13ft and 12ft swells with strong cross winds. The 14th to the 16th is all big swell and strong wind, making it more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing one.
In short, Saturday the 1st and Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are your best bets for clean, fun waves. The big stuff in the second week is powerful but rough.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Mon morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 20 | SW 19 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 17 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1465 | 2042 | 1384 | 1101 | 1001 | 521 | 702 | 929 | 1622 | 1748 | 521 | 186 | 175 | 299 | 149 | 353 | 475 | 1184 | 1133 | 1607 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | off |
High Tide | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | |||||||
 |  | | |  |  |  |  |  | | | |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — |
 | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
Feels °C | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | — | — | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 17 |
| kJ | 1465 | 2042 | 1384 | 1101 | 1001 | 521 | 702 | 929 | — | — | 521 | 173 | 133 | 299 | 149 | 353 | 475 | 1184 | 1133 | 1607 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | W 10 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 5 | WSW 20 | WSW 11 | SW 20 | SW 20 | ESE 8 |
| kJ | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 225 | 302 | — | — | — | — | 112 | 186 | 175 | 154 | 27 | 39 | 103 | 198 | 388 | 6 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | — | SW 16 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SSW 4 | ESE 8 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 47 | 100 | — | 127 | 62 | 102 | 6 | 6 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | W 6 | WSW 7 | WSW 6 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | SSW 5 | — | SSW 5 | S 4 | — | — | ENE 3 |
| kJ | — | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 305 | 394 | 128 | 1622 | 1748 | 132 | 90 | 53 | 33 | — | 17 | 9 | — | — | 4 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 141 | 114 | 113 | 117 | 81 | 81 | 41 | 114 | 39 | 113 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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