Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 24 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 29 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 31 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 19s period, SW swell with 3,242 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.1m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 24th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sat 29th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Cape Paterson for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with some clean windows and a fair bit of messy, blown-out junk to wade through. This is a beach and reef setup, sheltered from the swell, so it needs the right direction to fire.
Alright, the main takeaway for the whole period is that there are only a handful of sessions worth paddling out for. There’s a solid gap of days where it’s just not worth it, especially from the 26th right through the end of August and into September. The first real standout is Tuesday morning, the 25th of August. We’ve got a 5ft SW groundswell with a period of 13 seconds, and the wind is offshore from the NE. That’s a clean, glassy setup. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year, so pretty normal. The combined energy is moderate at 803, but the conditions are locked in.
Now, the next real highlight doesn’t roll in until Monday the 31st of August. The morning has a 6ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, meaning proper groundswell. Winds are light from the NW, so cross-shore but small ripples only. It’s clean and the energy is strong at 2148. The afternoon bumps up to a 7ft SW swell, 18-second period, with glassy conditions as the wind goes SW at just 3 mph. The combined energy is very strong at 3013, but with that long period, it might be a bit too straight for the beach breaks and better suited to the reef. This is the pick of the whole outlook.
After that, things get messy again. There’s a big pulse coming through around the 4th and 5th of September, with 10ft swell and strong winds, but the wind is either cross or cross-onshore, making it choppy and ugly. For a sheltered spot like Cape Paterson, that’s going to be a washing machine. That last window on the 7th and 8th of September sees massive swell, like 21ft and 15ft, but with near gale-force winds and onshore conditions. That’s not surfing for anyone but the insane, and honestly, it looks more like a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.
So, bottom line: your best bet is Tuesday morning the 25th of August for clean, offshore conditions on a solid SW swell. The absolute standout for size and quality is Monday the 31st of August, with the afternoon session giving you glassy, long-period groundswell at 7ft. Just be aware, that long of a period might make it a bit wonky on the beach, so head for the reef if you can. Crowds at Cape Paterson can pop up sometimes, so keep that in mind on a good day.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 22 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
822 | 671 | 527 | 680 | 659 | 1142 | 1368 | 1011 | 816 | 456 | 148 | 485 | 1186 | 2582 | 1650 | 961 | 774 | 458 | 376 | 330 | 844 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | glassy | cross | on | glassy | cross | on | cross |
High Tide | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | ||||||||
6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | |
— | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | |
mm | — | — | 4 | 4 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 15 |
822 | 671 | 527 | 680 | 659 | 1142 | 521 | 1011 | 816 | 456 | 123 | 444 | 852 | 2582 | 1650 | 961 | 774 | 458 | 376 | 330 | 844 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 12 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | W 24 | SW 22 | SW 19 | SW 16 | WSW 18 |
— | 15 | 32 | 123 | 237 | — | — | — | 25 | 21 | 148 | 485 | 1186 | — | — | — | 11 | 18 | 170 | 310 | 126 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 18 | — | E 4 | — | — | — | — | WSW 23 | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 4 | SW 20 | SW 23 |
— | — | 63 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | 51 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 97 | 138 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NW 4 | ENE 2 | E 3 | — | SW 3 | SW 14 | SSW 5 | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
15 | 4 | 1 | 6 | — | 5 | 1368 | 44 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 54 | 81 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











