Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 21s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 17s period, WSW swell with 11,381 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 21s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Cape Paterson.
To be honest, the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a serious run of poor conditions, with strong winds and messy swell, so don’t be in a rush to wax up. The first real glimmer of hope isn’t until Saturday, the 1st of August. That morning, under clear skies with a light 6 mph cross-offshore wind from the NNE, we’ll see a tidy 3 ft swell from the WSW, with a moderate 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate (516). It’s clean, but nothing to write home about.
The real standout, and the best on offer across the whole forecast, is Saturday afternoon on the 1st of August. The wind drops to glassy—just 3 mph from the W—and the ocean turns to glass. The swell is a small 2 ft from the SW, but here’s the kicker: the period is a very long 21 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and for a reef setup like Cape Paterson, that translates to long, lined-up waves. The combined energy is moderate (1011), but that long period will make paddling out easy and the shape will be excellent. The water temperature is 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. This is the session to point your car at.
Sunday the 2nd of August sees a bump in size to 6 ft swell from the SW with a 16-second period, but the wind picks up to a fresh 22 mph from the NNW, making it cross-off and clean in the morning, but the strength of the wind will be a factor. The combined energy jumps to strong (1580), but it’s a marginal call.
There’s another small window on Saturday, the 8th of August. The morning is clean with a 4 ft SW swell (14 seconds) and a light 3 mph NNE cross-offshore breeze. The afternoon goes glassy again with a 3 mph southerly, and a 4 ft SW swell (14 seconds). The combined energy is moderate (582 and 767). These are good, clean, small-wave days.
Finally, Sunday the 9th of August morning sees a 5 ft SW swell (15 seconds) with a gentle offshore breeze from the NE at 9 mph. The combined energy is moderate (887). That’s a good, clean long-period swell, but it’s not a big one.
Don’t bother with the massive 15 ft swell on Wednesday, the 29th of July—that’s a near-gale onshore mess, only for the hardcore, and even then, it’s not good. The whole run from now until the 1st of August is mostly a bust. Save your energy for that glassy Saturday afternoon with the 21-second groundswell.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the NNW on Mon afternoon, near gales from the WNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | W 12 | W 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 21 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 389 | 527 | 668 | 702 | 1301 | 2692 | 10754 | 7440 | 3469 | 1430 | 746 | 785 | 514 | 411 | 367 | 264 | 441 | 2369 | 1580 | 1271 | 1258 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | 2:00PM0.73m | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | 7:21AM0.16m | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  |  | |  | |  | | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — |
 | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 |
Temp °C | 14 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 16 | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | 389 | 527 | 668 | 702 | 505 | 489 | — | — | — | 1430 | 746 | 785 | 514 | 411 | 367 | 264 | 264 | 2369 | 1580 | 1271 | 1258 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 16 | — | — | WSW 9 | WSW 20 |
| kJ | 56 | — | — | — | 229 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 18 | 62 | 97 | 252 | 306 | — | — | 106 | 76 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSE 4 | SW 20 | E 12 | — | SW 21 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 100 | 3 | — | 441 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 6 | W 12 | W 12 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | WSW 6 | SSW 6 | NW 3 | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 |
| kJ | 8 | 1 | 42 | 202 | 1301 | 2692 | 10754 | 7440 | 3469 | — | 114 | 41 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 10 | 11 | 36 | 31 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 126 | 233 | 227 | 443 | 284 | 117 | 113 | 54 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 119 | 119 | 41 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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