Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 12 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,697 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sat 12th Sep)6ft (1.8m) 15s
Best Surf 7PM (Sat 12th Sep)6ft (1.8m) 15s
Most Powerful 1AM (Wed 16th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a mixed bag. The start of the period looks clean but a bit challenging with some solid groundswell. The standout session by a long shot comes much later, on the morning of the 25th of September. That’s a real treat, but I’ll get to that. The first real window of opportunity is this Saturday morning, the 12th.

Saturday morning, 12th September looks like your best early bet. We’ve got a solid 7 ft SW groundswell with a period of 16 seconds, packing a strong (2054) punch of combined energy. The wind is light from the NNW at 3 mph, sitting cross-offshore, so the lines will be clean. This is big, powerful stuff—over the 5 ft mark, so it’s not for beginners. Water temp sits at 57°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year, so it feels a touch more pleasant than you’d expect. The swell direction is right in the pocket for Cape Paterson’s optimum. You’ll want to be on it early because the wind shifts to a southerly by the afternoon, bringing on a cross-on breeze which will mess things up.

Sunday, the 13th, drops a notch into the 4 ft to 5 ft range with cleaner wind. The morning sees a 9 mph northerly cross-off, but the energy is moderate (763) compared to Saturday. It's still a decent option for a session if you missed the Saturday swell, but the quality takes a step back. By Monday the 14th, the swell dips under 3 ft with moderate cross-shore breeze—not worth the paddle. Then we hit a tough stretch.

From the 15th through the 20th, it’s mostly a write-off for quality surfing. The swell tries to push through midweek, but the wind is all over the place—strong onshore and cross-on conditions. Tuesday the 15th has a 8 ft to 10 ft WSW swell, but with 22 to 25 mph onshore winds, that’s a messy, blown-out mess. These days are better spent on other hobbies. If you’re looking for a silver lining, it’s that the swell is showing reasonable energy, just not with any friendly wind.

Conditions finally start cleaning up again around the 23rd of September. Wednesday morning brings a light offshore from the NE at 6 mph, with a 7 ft SW swell at 15 seconds. It’s not huge, and the combined energy (1860) is solid. This is a good session for experienced surfers looking for a clean window and longer set waves, especially at a spot like Cape Paterson that loves a SW groundswell.

But the real jewel of this 16-day window is Friday, the 25th of September. The morning session is properly special. You get a 8 ft SW swell with an absolute monster period of 19 seconds—that’s very long period groundswell, and the energy is through the roof at (4861). On top of that, the wind is a light 6 mph from the east, cross-offshore. Perfect. Then the afternoon turns even better: the swell holds at 8 ft with an 18 second period, and the wind drops to dead calm. Glassy conditions, no wind ripples. That is the session to circle on your calendar. The water temp anomaly is still there (but we already mentioned that). Just keep in mind, these long period swells (over 15 seconds) tend to break a bit straight at beach breaks, but at Cape Paterson with a bit of reef structure, you’ll get some nice lines.

The last few days of September see dropping quality. Saturday the 26th has strong winds again, and Sunday the 27th brings a massive 21 ft stormy swell with onshore wind—only for the absolute diehards or maybe those looking to kite surf instead. The energy is extreme (14540), but the quality is not there for paddling.

One final word: Cape Paterson can get crowded sometimes, so for that killer Friday session, you might want to be there early.

Stay stoked.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Warm (max 22°C on Sun afternoon, min 12°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sat morning, fresh winds from the WSW by Mon night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu afternoon).

Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
4
2
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.1
SW
16
1.9
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.2
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
0.9
WSW
14
0.9
SW
13
1.6
WSW
6
2.5
WSW
14
3
WSW
14
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
14
2.5
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
2
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.3
SW
14
1.5
WSW
16
1.6
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2054
1609
1103
763
684
489
318
253
172
2430
3746
4697
3187
2953
2117
1602
1083
872
612
1229
1059
Wind (km/h)
5
NNW
5
S
15
NNE
15
N
20
NNW
10
NW
25
NW
25
WSW
30
WSW
35
WSW
40
SW
35
SSW
25
S
20
SSW
20
SSW
15
SW
15
W
15
NW
30
NW
20
WNW
25
NNW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
High Tide
12:15PM0.72m
00:41AM0.72m
1:03PM0.74m
1:37AM0.75m
1:46PM0.75m
2:25AM0.78m
2:25PM0.76m
3:08AM0.79m
3:02PM0.76m
3:48AM0.79m
3:38PM0.75m
4:26AM0.77m
4:12PM0.73m
Low Tide
6:29PM0.19m
6:52AM0.18m
7:20PM0.13m
7:43AM0.18m
8:04PM0.09m
8:28AM0.18m
8:44PM0.06m
9:08AM0.19m
9:23PM0.06m
9:46AM0.21m
9:59PM0.06m
10:22AM0.23m
10:35PM0.08m
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:24
6:22
6:20
6:18
6:18
6:16
6:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:04
6:05
6:06
6:07
6:07
6:07
6:08
 mm
1
2
2
1
Temp °C
15
18
17
21
22
20
15
14
15
11
11
10
11
11
11
9
10
9
15
18
16
Feels °C
13
16
14
17
18
16
11
10
10
3
2
0
4
6
5
5
6
6
9
13
11
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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