Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Cape Paterson. This spot is a sheltered beach and reef setup, so it needs the right conditions to really fire, and looking at the next couple of weeks, there’s a lot of wind and mess to wade through before we get to the good stuff.

Things start off pretty average. On Saturday the 11th, there’s a 4-foot WSW swell with a long 14-second period, offering moderate wave energy (556). The wind is a cross-off from the north, which is clean, but it’s marginal at best. That long-period groundswell is more suited to points and reefs than a beach break like this, so it’s not a standout. By Saturday afternoon, the wind picks up to 25 mph and the swell drops to 3 feet. Not worth paddling out.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Sunday the 12th right through to Tuesday the 15th, massive swells roll in—13 to 15 feet—but they’re accompanied by strong onshore and cross-shore winds clocking 25 to 31 mph. The wave energy is huge (3,571 to 7,236), but it’s a washing machine out there. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a struggle. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Wednesday the 15th is still windy with a messy 8-foot from the SW and moderate cross-shore conditions. The energy drops to 2,554, but it’s still not clean.

Now, we start to see a glimmer of hope. Thursday morning the 16th brings a cleaner picture: 6-foot SW swell at 14 seconds, with a light NNW cross-off breeze and moderate energy (1,187). It’s a marginal call, but the wind is gentle and the surf is clean. This is the beginning of a few days that might offer a wave.

Friday the 17th hangs in there with 7 to 7-foot SW swell and a long 16-second period. The wind is light to moderate cross-shore, so there’s some chop, but the energy is solid (1,983 to 2,066). It’s okay, but not a standout.

Saturday the 18th is where it gets interesting. Morning sees a 5-foot WSW swell with a cross-off breeze from the NNW and clean conditions. The wave energy sits at 814. This is your top pick for the whole period: a clean, manageable swell with light winds. In the afternoon it drops a little, but remains clean.

Sunday the 19th brings a 22 mph breeze that kills the quality, even though the swell is small and clean. The 3-foot swell on Sunday afternoon has a very long 19-second period, but the strong wind makes it a no-go.

Monday the 20th offers a 5-foot WSW swell with a moderate cross-off wind, but it’s marginal. Tuesday the 21st throws up a 13 to 16-foot WSW swell with strong onshore winds again—another messy, big day best left for the experts or the kites.

Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd have some cleaner moments with 6 to 8-foot SW swells and cross-off winds, but the wind is moderate to strong, so it’s not pristine.

Bottom line: Cape Paterson is a picky break. The 16-day forecast is mostly a bust thanks to strong winds and oversized swell. The one true standout is Saturday the 18th with clean conditions and a nice 5-foot groundswell. After that, it’s a long gap of onshore dross until the very end, which looks unsurfable. It’s the best on offer, but keep your expectations in check. This spot rarely gets a perfect window.

Rusty.

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