Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it. The next couple of weeks at Cape Paterson are looking like a mixed bag of frustration and a couple of genuine windows where it all comes together. Don’t get too excited about the first week, because there’s a lot of onshore slop and cross-chop to wade through. The real promise starts to show up later in the period, so keep that in mind.

Right out of the gate, Wednesday the 19th is a write-off for any decent wave riding. We’ve got a cross-off breeze but the swell is small and weak at 2.3ft to 2.6ft, with a slow 14 to 15 second period. The energy is sitting in the 229 to 257 range, which is pretty anemic, and the water temp is 56.3° Fahrenheit, about 1.8° warmer than usual for this time of year—noticeable, but not crazy. It’s clean-looking, but there’s just nothing to push you around. Don’t bother.

Thursday the 20th sees a bump in size to 4.9ft in the morning, but it’s short-period windswell at 8 seconds and the wind is cross and messy. The energy jumps to 608, but with a moderate cross-chop, it’s going to look like a washing machine out there. The surf quality is poor. Friday the 21st is slightly bigger on the face, around 4.3ft, but the period stretches to 16 seconds, which is proper groundswell. However, the wind is fresh and cross-shore, creating lumpy, crumbly conditions. The energy is solid at 1179, but it’s not translating into anything rideable. You’d be fighting the wind more than catching waves.

The weekend is a battle. Saturday the 22nd is the biggest of the early run, with 8.2ft of WSW swell and a 15 to 16 second period. Energy is cranking at 3130, but the wind is cross-onshore and it’s going to be a choppy, blown-out mess. That’s definitely expert territory if anyone’s silly enough, but it’s not what I’d recommend. Sunday the 23rd drops to 7.2ft but the conditions are still marginal, with cross-shore winds. The light breeze on Sunday afternoon might tidy it up a touch, but the period is still 14 seconds and it’s going to be lumpy. Not the day for a hero session.

Monday the 24th fades back to 4.6ft, with a fresh cross-off breeze that cleans up the surface, but the energy drops to 749 and the surf just isn't offering much shape. Tuesday the 25th has 4.9ft but the wind turns onshore, and it’s just not fun. Wednesday the 26th is cleaner with a cross-off, but the swell is inconsistent at 5.9ft and the period drops to 12 seconds. It’s okay, not great. The energy is moderate at around 980, but you’ll be scratching your head for waves. Thursday the 27th fades badly, down to 2.6ft with weak energy.

Now, here’s where the outlook changes. The start of the second week brings our first real standout. Monday the 31st of August, early morning. The wind is a light offshore from the NE, the air is clear, and the swell is a clean 2.6ft coming from the SW with a very long 19-second period. The energy is only 551, which is weak, but it’s glassy and offshore—that’s a recipe for clean, lined-up waves at the reefs and points. It’s a dawn patrol special for the longboard.

But the true standout—the one you circle on the calendar—is Tuesday the 1st of September, morning session. The wind is light offshore from the ENE, it’s clear, and the swell has built to 5.2ft with a solid 15-second period from the SW. The energy is up to 1212, which is moderate, but it’s clean, strong, and pushing in the right direction. This is the pick of the fortnight. Expect proper, rideable surf on the bank. It’ll be a bit bigger than the Monday, so if you’ve got a step-up board, bring it. This is the one to get out for.

After that, Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd are okay but not in the same league. Wednesday the 2nd has a clean 3.9ft with a light cross-off in the morning, but the energy is lower at 610. Thursday the 3rd, the period drops right off to 6 seconds in the morning—that’s just windswell and it’s going to be weak and messy, despite being glassy. The afternoon gets bigger at 6.6ft but the period stays short, so it’s not going to have any punch.

So, overall, the first week is a write-off with a couple of poor, choppy days. The weekend will be big and ugly. Don’t get your hopes up until that Monday the 31st. The real gem is Tuesday the 1st of September—clean, offshore, and with a proper swell. That’s your window. Get on it, and you’ll score. If you’re a beginner, stay home on the 22nd and 28th when it’s overhead and messy

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