Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 10s period, WSW swell with 3,620 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 06) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what Cape Paterson is looking like for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a rollercoaster, so hang on.
We get started on Thursday, July 30, but honestly, it’s a complete loss. Onshore winds and sloppy surf – not worth getting wet.
Friday, July 31, is only marginally better with light cross-onshore breezes. Still nothing to get stoked about.
Saturday, August 1, is where we finally get a real window. The morning is clean with light cross-offshore winds and a 3ft swell from the SW. The real gem is Saturday afternoon. It turns glassy – dead flat calm – with a very long period 5ft swell from the SW. The wave energy is strong (1471), and this is easily the best session of the whole outlook. Water temp is about 57°, which is normal for this time of year.
Sunday, August 2, is cleaner with offshore winds, but the surf quality is a bit more marginal. Still a solid 5ft swell with a very long period, but the wind is picking up.
Then we hit a big dry spell. From Monday, August 3, all the way through to Friday, August 7, it's mostly poor. Strong winds, onshore conditions, and messy seas make it a bust for surfing. There’s a big 12ft swell on Monday afternoon, but with 28 mph cross-on winds and a short period, it’s a kite-surfing show, not a paddle-surfing one.
Friday, August 7, morning saves the week. It’s glassy again, with a solid 6ft SW groundswell with very long-period energy (1604). That’s your next true standout – clean, powerful, and begging for a point or reef setup.
Saturday, August 8, keeps it going with offshore winds in the morning and a 6ft SW swell. Clean conditions make for another excellent day.
Sunday, August 9, holds up with lighter winds and clean 4ft swell, but the quality drops a touch.
From Monday, August 10, right through the rest of the forecast, we’re back into a long stretch of poor conditions. Strong winds, lumpy cross-chop, and messy surf. The swells are there, but they're blown out. Not worth the trouble.
So, circling back: your two best calls are the glassy Saturday afternoon, August 1, and the glassy Friday morning, August 7. That’s where you want to be.
This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Mon morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the N on Sun night, strong winds from the W by Mon afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 9 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1521 | 1249 | 712 | 503 | 383 | 283 | 287 | 1465 | 1938 | 1367 | 1112 | 1191 | 711 | 1915 | 2973 | 1483 | 1474 | 278 | 162 | 501 | 301 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | 2:00PM0.73m | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | 7:21AM0.16m | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |  | | |  |  | | | | |
 | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — |
 | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | — | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 18 | — | — | SW 11 | SSW 6 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
| kJ | 1521 | — | 712 | 503 | 383 | 283 | 287 | 1465 | 1938 | 1367 | 1112 | 1191 | 711 | — | 31 | — | — | 278 | 49 | 501 | 301 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 24 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 15 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 10 | SW 18 | SW 17 |
| kJ | — | — | 22 | 18 | 62 | 96 | 249 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 198 | 568 | 31 | — | — | — | — | 156 | 125 | 272 | 288 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | WSW 11 | SE 12 | — | — | — | SE 12 | W 20 | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 18 | SE 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 18 | 99 | 12 | 6 | — | — | — | 5 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | 21 | 162 | 223 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | W 6 | WSW 9 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 6 | — | — | NW 3 |
| kJ | — | 1249 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 12 | 29 | 27 | 292 | 1915 | 2973 | 1483 | 1474 | 124 | — | — | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 113 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 141 | 244 | 117 | 126 | 126 | 81 | 117 | 117 | 41 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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