Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 16 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.6° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 23 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, WSW swell with 6,187 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Thu 16th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 15s
Best Surf10PM (Thu 16th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 15s
Most Powerful10PM (Thu 23rd Jul)16ft (5.0m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, Rusty here, running through the Cape Paterson (Cape-Patterson) surf for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, it's a bit of a mixed bag, with a whole lot of wind and messy conditions to deal with, especially in the second half of the run. The water temp is about 57°, which is average for the time of year, so nothing crazy there.

The first real chance to score a good one is on Friday morning, the 17th of July. We've got a solid 6ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period. That's proper energy (1694 combined energy for the morning) and the wind is a clean, cross-off from the NNW. This is the standout window of the whole forecast. The tide could be a factor at this sheltered beach and reef, but if you can find the right bank, the shape from that long period will be real nice. The wave heights are in the sweet spot for advanced crew, not too big, not too small. With the wind being clean, this is the best offer on the table.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th still have some swell, but it's dropping and the wind goes more cross-shore, bringing in little ripples. The energy drops off (down to 510 on Sunday morning), so it's a bit more of a cruisy, smaller option.

Then we hit a real rough patch. From around Monday the 20th, the wind picks up, and from the 23rd of July it gets nasty. We're looking at strong onshore gales, some real rain, and a huge, messy swell. Check out the 24th of July – 12ft of SW groundswell with a massive 4567 combined energy, but it's blowing 25 mph onshore. That's just a washing machine. For the advanced surfers, the 27th of July has a monster 12ft SW swell with an 18-second period and 6535 energy, but again, the wind is a fresh cross-onshore. It's going to be ugly and dangerous. Honestly, for a couple of weeks there, this setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The end of the run, around the 30th and 31st of July, the swell calms down. It's back to 4ft to 5ft, with clean cross-off winds on the 31st, but the energy is low (639 combined energy). It's a glimmer of hope, but nothing to get excited about compared to the Friday the 17th window.

So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Friday morning, the 17th of July. Get in the water early. After that, it's a long, windy, and messy wait until the very end of the month.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Wed morning).

Thu
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
1
3
3
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.1
SW
15
2
SW
15
1.9
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
1.8
SW
15
1.7
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
13
1.4
WSW
13
1.2
WSW
13
1.1
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
12
0.7
SW
16
0.9
WSW
12
1.2
WSW
14
1.2
WSW
13
1.2
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1.1
WSW
12
1.2
WSW
11
3
WSW
8
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1994
1695
1694
1737
1415
1210
1018
679
454
333
250
261
242
557
499
476
745
458
347
325
857
Wind (km/h)
10
WSW
5
W
15
NNW
10
WNW
10
N
10
NW
10
WNW
10
N
15
NNW
10
NW
15
NNW
25
NNW
25
NW
20
NW
15
NNW
10
NW
25
NNW
30
NNW
25
NNW
35
NW
45
W
Wind State
on
glassy
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
High Tide
00:49AM0.73m
1:56PM0.82m
1:53AM0.74m
2:43PM0.83m
2:53AM0.75m
3:26PM0.83m
3:48AM0.75m
4:06PM0.82m
4:39AM0.74m
4:44PM0.80m
5:28AM0.72m
5:21PM0.76m
6:14AM0.70m
Low Tide
7:06PM0.26m
7:17AM0.03m
8:03PM0.21m
8:12AM0.05m
8:55PM0.15m
9:03AM0.08m
9:43PM0.11m
9:51AM0.13m
10:28PM0.09m
10:36AM0.17m
11:11PM0.08m
11:19AM0.22m
11:51PM0.09m
12:01PM0.27m
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:31
7:31
7:30
7:28
7:28
7:28
7:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:17
5:19
5:20
 mm
5
6
Temp °C
12
12
11
12
11
11
12
12
12
14
13
12
14
13
12
14
12
14
16
14
10
Feels °C
10
11
8
10
9
8
10
9
9
11
10
6
9
8
8
11
7
8
10
7
0
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
How to use the Wavefinder 
submit an eyeball surf report

Quick surf report for Cape Paterson:

join our community of surf reporters

FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website

The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Cape Paterson surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.


Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

Nearest locationNearest