
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 5 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 12,933 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 5 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Sat 5th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Sat 5th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty here, and I’ve got the outlook for Cape Paterson (Cape Paterson). The next two weeks are a bit of a mixed bag with some solid swells but the wind and conditions aren’t playing ball for the most part. There is one standout session tucked away in there that’s worth circling on the calendar.
The first proper surf to talk about is Friday the 4th of September. We’ve got a pumping 10 ft WSW swell with a very long 16 second period, giving the ocean some serious push – the combined energy is high at 4963 (moderate to strong). BUT the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the NW at 19 mph, which is going to whip up a lumpy cross-chop. It’s not going to be pretty, and the conditions are marginal. The afternoon stays similar with 10 ft swell and cross-shore winds, just a bit lighter. This isn’t the session to get excited about.
Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are write-offs with near gale force winds and messy or blown out conditions. Swell is still there, but it’s not worth your time. Monday the 7th is poor, with cross-onshore winds chopping up the 4 ft to 6 ft swell. The energy drops to 539 (weak) on Monday morning.
Now, here’s the highlight. Tuesday the 8th of September is your window. The morning is glassy – I’m talking 3 mph WNW, glass – and the ocean will be clean. Swell is 4 ft from the SW but with an exceptional 18 second period, which is very long period groundswell. The energy is solid at 1601 (moderate). This long period will really wrap into Cape Paterson’s reef and points, giving you proper-shaped lines. It’s a bit small, but with that period and glassy conditions, it’ll be fun and clean. Best for advanced surfers here, as the break is tricky. The afternoon sees a light onshore breeze, so the morning is the pick.
Wednesday the 9th goes downhill fast – strong SSW winds and a huge 12 ft SW swell with a massive 14716 energy (very strong) but it’s blown out. Thursday the 10th stays cross-onshore with 10-12 ft swell, marginal at best. Friday the 11th to Sunday the 13th see the swell drop back to 4-6 ft, with light winds and clean conditions at times – Sunday morning the 13th looks decent with NNE cross-offshore winds and 4 ft swell. Not a standout, but a fun little window.
The second week gets messy again. From Monday the 14th through to the 19th of September, strong winds and lumpy conditions dominate. Thursday the 17th sees a massive 26 ft WSW swell with an insane 41137 energy (very strong), but the Southerly cross-onshore wind churns it up, and it’s too big for this sheltered break anyway – more of a kite surf session if anything. The morning of Friday the 18th has a 13 ft SW swell with light winds, but it’s cross-onshore and still not clean.
Overall, don’t waste your time battling the wind most days. The standout is the Tuesday morning of the 8th of September – glassy, long period swell, and clean lines. That’s the one to chase.
Stay safe, keep an eye on the forecast, and get out there when it’s right.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Fri night, strong winds from the WNW by Sat night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 7 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
4963 | 4466 | 3158 | 2148 | 4243 | 2753 | 1265 | 1879 | 1311 | 336 | 226 | 328 | 772 | 864 | 1317 | 6473 | 12343 | 12093 | 7402 | 5141 | 3058 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | ||||||||
6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | |
— | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | |
mm | — | — | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 9 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 16 | SW 21 | — | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
4963 | 4466 | 3158 | 2148 | — | — | 500 | 1879 | 25 | 336 | 207 | 328 | 772 | 760 | 1317 | 1015 | — | 12093 | 7402 | 5141 | 3058 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | — | — | WSW 15 | SW 21 | WSW 13 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 26 | SW 21 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | — | — | 85 | 71 | 309 | 710 | 864 | 26 | 1041 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | — | — | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | — | S 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | — | — | 18 | 44 | 312 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | — | WSW 12 | WSW 6 | SW 7 | — | — | WSW 5 | WSW 7 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 19 | — | SSW 6 | SSW 5 |
— | 3 | 11 | 106 | 4243 | 2753 | 1265 | — | 1311 | 176 | 226 | — | — | 42 | 385 | 6473 | 12343 | 9470 | — | 82 | 39 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 429 | 284 | 81 | 52 | 113 | 114 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 227 | 552 | 1459 | 284 | 81 | 81 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










