Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 6 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 9,185 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson.
Honestly, the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a lot of swell but the wind is just not playing ball. There’s a huge gap from now until around Saturday the 12th where the conditions are just plain ugly. From Sunday the 6th right through to Friday the 11th, it’s nearly all onshore or cross-onshore winds, and the wave quality is shot. The swell is there, but it’s messy and blown out. You’d be better off doing something else.
The real standout, the only one worth getting excited about, is the morning of Saturday the 12th of September. The wind will be glassy, coming from the north at only 3 mph. The swell is a solid 6 ft from the SW, with a long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is moderate at 1622. For a sheltered spot like Cape Paterson (a beach and reef setup), that long period from the SW will wrap in nicely, and with glassy conditions, it’ll be clean and lined up. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. Just keep in mind this break is rated as advanced, so it’s not for beginners. Crowds can be an issue here sometimes, so get in early for the best of it.
The morning of Thursday the 17th of September is a long-range option that looks promising but less certain. The swell will be a solid 12 ft from the SW, but with a short period of 9 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving, and with a combined energy of 2297, it’s strong. The wind will be offshore from the ENE at 9 mph, so it’ll be clean. That size is strictly for experts only, as it’s well over 8 ft. The afternoon will be smaller at 10 ft, with a light cross-shore breeze, but the tide might mess with the quality.
For the rest of the period, it’s a mix of too much wind, too much swell, or both. The morning of Saturday the 19th has a tiny 2 ft swell with a very long 19-second period, and the wind is offshore, but it’s just too small to get excited about.
So, to sum it up: the only real window is the morning of the 12th – glassy, good swell, clean. The 17th is a big swell option for the brave, but it’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 7 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1723 | 1759 | 657 | 265 | 313 | 1029 | 723 | 874 | 1317 | 5273 | 9185 | 8131 | 5695 | 4107 | 2796 | 1776 | 1624 | 1958 | 1622 | 1187 | 752 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | 11:20AM0.70m | 11:34PM0.68m | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | 4:46AM0.17m | 5:30PM0.25m | 5:53AM0.18m | 6:29PM0.19m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — |
 | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 21 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 1723 | 1759 | 657 | 265 | 207 | 1029 | 723 | 679 | 1317 | 756 | 5664 | 6059 | 5695 | 4107 | 2796 | 1776 | 1624 | 1958 | 1622 | 1187 | 752 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 7 | — | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | SW 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 5 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 181 | — | 25 | 55 | 71 | 312 | 628 | 874 | — | 652 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | — | — | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 480 | — | — | 18 | 44 | 194 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 7 | WSW 6 | SW 6 | SW 7 | — | — | WSW 4 | WSW 7 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | SSW 6 | SW 5 | SSW 6 | — | — | — | NW 3 |
| kJ | — | 73 | 124 | 263 | 313 | — | — | 30 | 331 | 5273 | 9185 | 8131 | — | — | 34 | 42 | 47 | — | — | — | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 54 | 52 | 54 | 81 | 81 | 45 | 23 | 117 | 421 | 552 | 1512 | 126 | 81 | 167 | 105 | 113 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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