Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 8,074 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 27 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 11s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 11s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here.
Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next week and a half at Cape Paterson is a write-off. The wind is howling from the west and southwest, and every time the swell shows up, the onshore wind just trashes it. We’re looking at a brutal stretch from Wednesday the 22nd all the way through to Sunday the 27th. The swell is there, hitting 7ft to 12ft with moderate to strong combined energy (up to 6082 on the Friday), but the wind is either a strong cross-onshore or a fresh cross-shore, turning it into a lumpy, messy, cross-chop nightmare. The water temperature is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when you’re getting blown off your board.
That blank run finally breaks on Monday morning the 28th. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NNW, and the swell drops to a clean 6ft from the WSW with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate (952). The wave comment says "expect good surf conditions" – about bloody time. It’s not huge, but it’s the first clean window we’ve had. Tuesday morning the 29th looks similar, with a light offshore from the E and a 6ft SW swell at 15 seconds. That long period will give the waves some real shape, but at a beach-and-reef setup like Cape Paterson, it might break a bit straight. Still, it’s clean.
The standout, though, is Saturday morning the 1st of August. The wind is light offshore from the NE, barely 10 km/h, and the swell is 4ft from the SW with a very long 18-second period. The combined energy is strong (1262). The wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions." This is the one to circle – it’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it, but the potential is there for glassy, clean lines. The crowd here is listed as "sometimes," so you might have a few others out, but with that kind of quality, it’s worth it. After that, Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th of August look promising with bigger swell (10ft to 12ft) and cross-offshore winds, but the size is firmly in the ‘experts only’ zone.
So, for the next week, don’t even bother. The second week has a few clean windows, but Saturday the 1st is the real prize. Keep your fingers crossed it holds.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the WSW on Wed night, strong winds from the WSW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Sat morning, calm by Mon afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 294 | 1047 | 1267 | 3582 | 4399 | 2989 | 6082 | 1647 | 2372 | 2676 | 1857 | 1314 | 846 | 705 | 612 | 729 | 831 | 1385 | 952 | 1041 | 1738 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | glassy |
High Tide | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | |  |  | | | | |
 | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — |
mm | — | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | E 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 294 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1647 | 492 | — | 232 | 236 | 846 | 705 | 612 | 729 | 831 | 1385 | 952 | 1041 | 1738 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | WSW 12 | — |
| kJ | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 25 | 26 | 56 | — | — | — | 550 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 6 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 233 | 1047 | 1267 | 3582 | 4399 | 2989 | 6082 | 1008 | 2372 | 2676 | 1857 | 1314 | — | 7 | 3 | 28 | 11 | 16 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 141 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 421 | 140 | 117 | 117 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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