
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 5,017 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, it's Rusty. Look, I've got to be straight with you – the next 16 days are a real mixed bag for Cape Paterson. This is a sheltered spot that needs a very specific window, and most of the time the wind is going to be a problem. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year.
The first week is pretty grim. From Friday the 24th right through to the end of July, it's a write-off. We've got a massive 12ft SW groundswell rolling in on Friday morning with a very long 15-second period, packing some serious weight, but a screaming 22 mph WSW wind is blowing straight across it, making it a lumpy, blown-out mess. That's not surfable. Saturday and Sunday are the same story – fresh cross-onshore winds and big, messy swell. The waves are over 8ft, so even if the wind was good, this would be expert-only territory.
We get a little glimmer of hope on Monday the 27th. The wind finally swings to a light offshore from the NW, and the swell drops to a more manageable 5ft. It's a clean, cross-off breeze, but the forecast is marginal. It's the best thing on offer for days, but don't expect much. Tuesday the 28th is a total loss again – near-gale force winds ruin the whole day.
The middle of the week (29th-30th) is onshore and messy. Then on the 31st, we get another clean window with a light offshore wind and a small 4ft SW groundswell. It's still only marginal.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. The real standout – the one you want to circle on the calendar – is Saturday the 1st of August. It's a full week away, so it's promising but not locked in yet. The morning is looking clear with a light NNW offshore breeze. The swell is small at 3ft, but it's a very long period groundswell of 17 seconds. That long period means the waves will have shape and power for their size, and the clean conditions will make it glassy. This is the best chance for a sneaky, fun session. The afternoon sees a bit more size at 5ft with a 16-second period, but the wind goes cross-shore, so the morning is the pick.
Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd of August also have clean, cross-off winds and a solid 6ft to 6ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period. The energy is moderate to strong. These are good options, but the wind is a moderate breeze, so it won't be glassy. Still, clean and lined up.
After that, the forecast gets messy again from the 4th onwards. The wind picks up, and while there's still plenty of swell, it's going to be choppy and lumpy. The 6th of August has another big pulse of 8ft, 19-second groundswell, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore. It's a powerful, dangerous-looking swell for a beach and reef setup like this, and with the wind, it might be more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys.
So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. Saturday the 1st of August morning is your best bet for a small, clean, glassy session on a long-period groundswell. Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd are solid backups with clean, lined-up waves, though a bit more wind-affected. The rest is a gamble.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Wed morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Mon afternoon, near gales from the W by Tue afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
6288 | 1776 | 1748 | 2310 | 1913 | 1382 | 934 | 770 | 599 | 560 | 517 | 627 | 1547 | 3107 | 4449 | 4698 | 2873 | 1613 | 1034 | 667 | 514 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | ||||||||
7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | |
— | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 |
— | 1776 | 686 | 212 | 256 | 315 | 934 | 770 | 599 | 560 | 517 | 627 | 1547 | — | — | 4698 | 2873 | 1613 | 1034 | 667 | 514 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 25 | SW 23 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 25 | 11 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12 | 21 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | — | — | NNW 4 | — | NNW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | — | — | SSW 5 | — | WSW 4 | — |
6288 | 899 | 1748 | 2310 | 1913 | 1382 | — | — | — | 9 | — | 56 | 129 | 3107 | 4449 | — | — | 51 | — | 12 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 141 | 114 | 117 | 54 | 114 | 35 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 120 | 429 | 227 | 126 | 81 | 81 | 45 | 5 | 113 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










