Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gather ‘round, crew. Rusty here. We’ve got a pretty grim 16-day outlook for Cape Paterson on the cards. Before I get into it, the water temp is sitting at about 57°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year – a little odd, but not a dealbreaker.

Honestly, I’m looking at a long stretch of nothing. For the first week, from Thursday the 13th right through to about Sunday the 16th, it’s a write-off. We’re staring down massive 10ft swell with a very long 16-second period, which sounds epic, but the wind is a brutal cross-onshore at 19 mph, tearing it all to pieces. The combined swell energy is massive, reaching 4883 on Thursday morning, but it’s all for nothing – poor surf conditions, lumpy, choppy. The wave state is just “fresh cross-onshore and lumpy” – that’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. For the next few days after that, the swell drops but the wind stays messy. We’re looking at 4-5 days where there’s simply nothing worth paddling out for. The models are giving a score of 0 out of 10 for the first five days straight.

There’s a small glimmer on Tuesday the 18th morning. The swell drops to 4ft from the WSW, period at 14 seconds, but here’s the kicker: the wind goes offshore from the NE at just 6 mph. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions” and the wave state is “clean.” That’s the standout of the whole 16-day window. The combined energy is only 871, so it’s not powerful, but clean 4ft waves on a sheltered beach and reef setup like this? That’s our window. It’s a fairly consistent break, so it’s worth taking a look. But it’s an advanced spot, and the swell is small, so it’ll be a bit fat. The morning is the call.

After that, Wednesday the 19th morning is surfable with a 2ft swell and offshore NE breeze at 9 mph. It’s clean but tiny – the combined energy is just 208. It’s “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” Not a standout, just something to wet the line.

The entire second week looks poor. From Thursday the 20th through to Friday the 28th, the wind is either cross, cross-on, or just straight up strong. A few mornings on the 21st and 25th show offshore wind, but the wave state is “clean” with a moderate breeze – that’s not the same as light offshore. The swell is there (4ft to 6ft) but the wind direction kills it. The combined energy spikes back up to 8317 on the 26th, but with a 28 mph cross-onshore, it’s a total mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

To put it plainly: we’ve got a massive blank run in the first week, and the second week is nearly as bad. The only real chance to score is Tuesday the 18th morning. Don’t hold your breath for anything else.

Rusty.

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