Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s on the cards for Cape Paterson.

Straight up, we’ve got a long, frustrating wait ahead. The first week and a half is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. The wind is all over the shop, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the sea state is lumpy, choppy, or just plain messy. There’s plenty of swell energy out there, with readings often in the four-figure range (like 527 on the 20th, ramping up to 5998 on the 24th), but it’s all blown to bits. The swell is solid, pushing 7ft to 12ft from the 22nd onward, but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. Not worth your time.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday, July 28th. The morning sees a bit of a cross-off breeze from the NNW, cleaning up a solid 12ft SW swell (12-second period, 3741 energy). It’s still a marginal call, but the afternoon is where it gets interesting. Winds shift to a clean cross-off from the NNW, with a 15ft swell from the WSW (10-second period, 4678 energy). The forecast says it’s wind and tide favorable, but that size is a beast. At 15ft, this is strictly for experts only – the wave energy is huge and it’s going to be a challenging, heavy session. Still, on a good day, that’s a proper, powerful wave.

Following that, Wednesday July 29th stays big with a 13ft SW groundswell (15-second period, 6872 energy) and a strong cross-off breeze, but again, it’s a marginal call and that size is for the brave only. The energy drops steadily after that.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, lands on Friday, August 1st. We get a beautiful morning with zero wind – glassy conditions – and a clean 5ft SW swell (12-second period, 956 energy). That’s a perfect size for a good session, clean, and with the right direction. The afternoon stays clean with a gentle cross-off from the east. Then Saturday, August 2nd, gives us two more gems: a morning with a gentle offshore from the NE, and a 5ft SW swell (13-second period, 790 energy), followed by an afternoon with glassy conditions and the same 5ft SW swell. That’s a weekend of clean, rideable, and manageable surf. The water temp is about 57°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so it’s a standard winter wetsuit job.

The following week tails off with building wind and smaller, weaker swell, so the focus is definitely on that last weekend of July and the first couple of days in August.

To sum it up: the first week is a bust. Don’t bother. The big swell on the 28th and 29th is for the experienced crew only. The best bet for the average surfer is the glassy, clean conditions on Friday, August 1st and Saturday, August 2nd. That’s your window.

Rusty.

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