
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, WSW swell with 1,877 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.1m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, grab a coffee and settle in, because it’s been a bit of a mixed bag lately. The next couple of weeks are looking real up and down for the Cape Paterson area. The spot is a pretty sheltered beach and reef setup, so it needs things to line up just right. The water is sitting at 57°F right now, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The first real chance to get wet is Sunday the 2nd. The morning is the pick of the whole forecast, no doubt. We’ve got a solid 5ft SW groundswell (16-second period) rolling in, with a combined energy of 1390. The wind is light and offshore – a gentle N breeze – keeping the surface clean. The swell direction is dead on for this spot. It’s not a huge wave, but that long period and clean wind will make for some proper, shaped-up lines. It’s an advanced break, so be ready for a bit of power, but honestly, this is the standout. The afternoon stays clean-ish but the swell drops off a touch and the tide might get a bit funny.
Now, the next week and a half is a tough slog. From Monday the 3rd through to the weekend of the 9th, it’s mostly a write-off. Strong winds, onshore and cross-shore stuff, lumpy, choppy, and just generally poor conditions. The wind just doesn’t play nice, flipping around and ruining the shape. For a few days there, it’s looking more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers.
There’s a bit of a ray of hope on Saturday the 8th. The morning sees a 5ft SW swell (16 seconds) with a light N offshore breeze again. It’s not as clean as the Sunday before, and the energy is a bit lower (1155). The tide could be a factor, so time it right.
The middle of the second week, around Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th, brings a massive spike in size. We’re talking 10ft SW swell on the Monday with a crazy 5406 combined energy. But the wind is onshore and strong, so it’s just a big, messy, stormy mess. Only for the absolute die-hards, and even then, it’s not really surfable. That big swell sticks around but with those cross-shore winds, it’s going to be lumpy and challenging.
The real last chance for a decent wave might be Thursday the 13th. There’s a massive 13ft SW swell (14-15 seconds) with a combined energy of 6247 to 6554. The wind is cross-shore, not ideal, but it could be holding some shape if you can find a protected corner. The energy is so strong that it’s definitely only for experts. It’s a long shot, but it’s the only thing worth looking at in that second week.
So, to wrap it up: Sunday the 2nd is your best bet by a long shot – clean, solid, and lined up. Saturday the 8th is a distant second. The rest is a lot of wind and swell that just doesn’t match up. Keep an eye on those forecasts, because things can change, but right now, pick your window carefully.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 27mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Mon morning, light winds from the W by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 6 | WSW 10 | SW 19 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1384 | 1101 | 1001 | 774 | 801 | 889 | 843 | 1304 | 390 | 265 | 175 | 249 | 152 | 196 | 649 | 1408 | 1591 | 1570 | 1155 | 993 | 863 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | 6:25AM0.74m | 6:01PM0.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | 12:12PM0.28m | 00:40AM0.04m | ||||||||
7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | |
— | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | — | SW 21 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
1384 | 1101 | 1001 | 774 | 801 | 889 | 843 | — | 111 | 265 | 160 | 249 | 152 | 144 | 649 | 1408 | 1591 | 1570 | 1155 | 993 | 863 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | SE 12 | WSW 20 | SW 17 | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 10 | SW 20 | SW 19 | — | ESE 11 | SE 10 | ESE 8 |
6 | 5 | 75 | 302 | — | 50 | — | — | — | 186 | 102 | 154 | 129 | 196 | 160 | 196 | 518 | — | 11 | 4 | 7 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | WSW 20 | SW 14 | SW 20 | WSW 8 | — | — | ESE 9 | — |
— | — | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 48 | 175 | — | 93 | 40 | 100 | 97 | 50 | — | — | 8 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | WNW 6 | W 8 | WSW 6 | W 5 | WSW 11 | SW 6 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | SW 5 | SSW 4 | SW 5 | SSW 4 | WSW 9 | SW 4 | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 |
7 | 12 | 20 | 148 | 443 | 126 | 66 | 1304 | 390 | 64 | 28 | 35 | 13 | 17 | 3 | 111 | 5 | — | 3 | 4 | 33 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 113 | 114 | 41 | 35 | 38 | 39 | 45 | 105 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











