
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 14 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 5,508 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Tue 14th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s see what’s brewing for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. It’s going to be a slow start, so don’t be in a rush.
First up, on Tuesday the 14th of July, we’ve got a massive 15-foot swell from the WSW with a 15-second period, but the wind is screaming from the WSW at 28 mph, putting it right onshore. It’s a total mess with 8354 (very strong wave energy) of raw power. That’s a no-go for paddle surfing—maybe more of a kite session if you’re into that. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef spot, and it’s sheltered from the SW, so this is just ugly.
The next few days are flat or junk. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th have swell in the 7-10 foot range, but the wind is cross or onshore, and the quality is poor. Forget it.
The first glimmer of hope comes on Friday the 17th. The swell drops to around 6 feet from the SW with a very long 16-second period. The morning has a clean offshore wind from the NNW. The combined energy is still a solid 1654 (moderate wave energy). It’s a start.
Now, the real standout. Saturday the 18th of July is your best bet for the first week. The morning has a clean 6-foot WSW swell with a 14-second period, light NNW offshore wind, and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” The energy is 1332 (moderate). The afternoon goes glassy with a 5-foot swell and a light SE breeze, making for some clean, fun waves. The water temp is about 57°, which is pretty average for the time of year, so nothing weird there.
Sunday the 19th is still fun but smaller, with 4-foot waves in the morning and clean conditions, dropping to a glassy 3 feet in the afternoon. Monday the 20th drops right off to 2 feet, not worth the effort.
After a few days of small, weak, or windy surf, the next big highlight shows up for the second week. Thursday the 23rd of July brings a jump in size. The swell hits 8 feet from the WSW with a 14-15 second period, and the wind is light and cross or light cross-onshore from the SSE. The combined energy jumps to 3114 (strong wave energy). This is a proper swell, but at 8 feet it’s for experts only. The morning has a bit of chop, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. It’s a promising, though distant, prospect.
The Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th mornings both look very good. Expect clean 7-foot WSW swells with a 15-second period and light offshore or cross-off winds. The energy is around 1800-1900 (moderate to strong). These are solid, clean waves with good period. The 7-foot range is still a fair size, so it’s for the experienced.
By Sunday the 26th, the swell drops to a more manageable 5 feet from the SW, with a 14-second period and a light offshore NE wind. Clean and fun. Monday the 27th stays in the 5-6 foot range with glassy conditions in the afternoon. A nice way to finish the run.
After that, it fades out again, with poor conditions taking over from Tuesday the 28th. So, for the whole 16-day window, your best bets are the mornings of Saturday the 18th and then Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th. The 18th is the safer, more reliable call, while the 24th and 25th are bigger and more powerful, making them the standout for those who can handle it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the W by Thu night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tue 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
8354 | 4180 | 3063 | 2094 | 1949 | 1941 | 1994 | 1563 | 1651 | 2109 | 1708 | 1332 | 915 | 630 | 410 | 283 | 152 | 261 | 223 | 557 | 649 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | 3:26PM0.83m | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | 8:55PM0.15m | 9:03AM0.08m | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | |||||||
— | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | |
5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | 5:17 | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
Feels °C | 4 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 |
— | 4180 | 2582 | 2094 | 1949 | 1941 | 1994 | 1563 | 1651 | 2109 | 1708 | 1332 | 915 | 630 | 410 | 283 | 147 | 261 | 142 | 557 | 649 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | WSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 14 | W 10 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | 47 | 152 | 156 | 223 | 130 | 220 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | SE 10 | ESE 10 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | 60 | 23 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 10 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | — | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | WNW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 |
8354 | — | 3063 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 24 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 443 | 41 | 35 | 54 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











