Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 12 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 13s period, WSW swell with 10,579 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.5m 13s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Thu 9th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sun 12th Jul) | 18ft (5.5m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s lookin’ good for Cape Paterson.
First off, the water’s at 58°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year. Nothin’ crazy, but it’s a nice little bonus.
We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the real action is a mixed bag. The standout window is actually Thursday morning, July 9th. We’ve got a solid 5ft SW groundswell (16-second period) rollin’ in with a light NNE cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate at 876, and the conditions are clean. That’s the pick of the early days. Thursday afternoon goes glassy as the wind drops to nothin’, but the swell backs off a touch to 4ft.
Friday, July 10th, is another good one. Morning brings a 5ft WSW swell, still long period at 15 seconds, with a clean N cross-off. The energy jumps up to 1069, so there’s a bit more push. The afternoon turns glassy again with a NW breeze and 5ft of SW groundswell. It’s gonna be a nice run.
Now, hold onto your board. Saturday, July 11th, the wind goes nuts. We’re talkin’ 22-28 mph winds from the N and NNW, which is just cross-off, but the quality drops out. The swell is small and weak. Avoid it.
Sunday, July 12th, is a write-off. Strong W and WSW winds, huge swell (13ft to 18ft), and massive energy readings (5962 to 10579). That’s not surfable for a paddle; it’s more of a kite-surfing setup with that strong cross and cross-onshore wind. The whole of next week, from the 12th through the 15th, is dominated by big, messy, wind-affected swell. It’s big for experts only, but the wind is just ruinin’ it. The 15th shows a drop to 8ft with an ESE wind, but it’s only marginal.
We get a bit of a reprieve on Thursday, July 16th – 5ft SW swell, clean E cross-off in the morning. Energy is moderate at 890. Then Friday, July 17th, morning is glassy with a 5ft SW groundswell, energy at 1129. That’s a nice little clean session.
The 18th and 19th of July are back to clean, cross-off winds with 5ft to 6ft SW groundswell. Consistent, but nothin’ huge. Then Tuesday, July 21st, morning is lookin’ promising: 7ft SW groundswell with a light N cross-off and very clean. Energy is moderate at 1868. The 22nd is similar, with 7ft SW groundswell and a clean NNE breeze. Those are the late standouts, but they’re a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.
The last few days of the window (23rd and 24th) see the swell drop back and the wind swingin’ onshore, turnin’ it messy.
So, the best bet is to hit the water Thursday morning, July 9th, for that clean 5ft SW groundswell. Friday the 10th is also a solid call. If you’re patient, the 21st and 22nd mornings look like they could be the best of the later period, but that’s a long-range call.
Stay stoked, and keep your wax on.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Sat night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sun morning, light winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 8 | W 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 967 | 711 | 515 | 352 | 1379 | 5962 | 10579 | 6241 | 4096 | 3702 | 5081 | 5766 | 5995 | 4181 | 2722 | 2055 | 1271 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  | |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — |
 | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | — | WSW 16 | — | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 967 | 711 | 515 | 352 | — | — | — | 5336 | 4096 | 3702 | — | 5766 | — | 4181 | 2722 | 2055 | 1271 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SW 20 | E 4 | — | E 5 | ESE 8 | SE 8 | W 9 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSE 4 |
| kJ | 5 | 97 | 4 | — | 5 | 6 | 3 | 57 | — | — | — | — | 18 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 10 | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | E 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | W 8 | W 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | NW 5 | NW 6 | WSW 14 | — | WSW 16 | — | — | S 5 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 56 | 119 | 1379 | 5962 | 10579 | 6241 | 106 | 131 | 5081 | — | 5995 | — | — | 12 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 233 | 443 | 470 | 747 | 126 | 227 | 647 | 114 | 114 | 81 | 284 | 45 | 44 | 26 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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