Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, checking in on the Cape Paterson stretch. Let's get into it.

Straight up, this is a tricky forecast for Cape Paterson. It's a fairly consistent spot, but we're looking at a long stretch of challenging conditions before any real reward. For the next week and a half, the wind is going to be a major problem. There's a window of promise right at the very end of the 16-day run, but we've got to get through a lot of messy weather to get there.

The water temperature is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

The first real chance to get wet comes Tuesday morning, September 1st. We've got a solid 5ft southwest swell rolling in with a very long 16-second period, bringing a lot of energy. The wind is a strong cross-off from the NNW, which will keep the waves clean, but that 25 mph wind is going to be a battle. The size and long period makes this one for the advanced crew only.

Wednesday, the 2nd, sees the swell building, but the wind is shifting to a cross-on, making things choppy. By the afternoon we're looking at 8ft, but the quality is marginal.

From Thursday the 3rd right through the first week, the wind is relentless. We're looking at strong cross-onshore or near-gale conditions with massive, messy swell. The waves get huge, up to 18ft on Saturday the 5th, but it's completely blown out. At this size and with those winds, the beach and reef setup here looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The combined energy values are massive but it's just raw power with no order.

We get a bit of a reprieve on Sunday the 6th. The afternoon brings a light onshore wind and a 8ft swell, but it's still marginal. The wind turns glassy-light on Monday the 7th with a 4ft swell, but it's small.

The second week is more of the same – strong winds and messy surf. There's a brief moment on Friday, September 11th, where we see a clean 10ft swell from the SW with a very long 18-second period and a light cross-off breeze. That's a powerful combination, but the wind is forecast to swing back to a cross-on by the afternoon, messing it up.

The real standout, and the one to circle on the calendar, is Tuesday, September 15th. After all this wind, we get a beautiful morning with glassy conditions. The swell is 5ft from the SW with a very long 18-second period. This is groundswell at its finest. The long period might make it a bit shifty on the beach break, but the conditions are forecast to be "very good". This is the one to aim for, but it's 16 days out, so keep an eye on it.

In summary, Cape Paterson is a bit of a write-off for the first week and a half unless you're keen on battling the wind. The best bet is that Tuesday, September 15th, morning session.

Rusty.

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