Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 19 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
0.8° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 21 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 13s period, WSW swell with 5,866 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 19 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 12s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Sun 19th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 12s
Best Surf 4PM (Tue 21st Jul)5.5ft (1.7m) 13s
Most Powerful 7PM (Fri 24th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer down at Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the first real shot of decent surf doesn’t show up until Sunday morning, July 19th. We’ve got a bit of a lag before that.

The standout period for the whole outlook is that Sunday morning, July 19th. We’ve got a clean 4ft swell running from the WSW with a period of 13 seconds, so some decent groundswell energy moving through. The wind is a light northerly at 6 mph, sitting cross-off, which should keep the surface tidy. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is a moderate 466, so plenty of push for a fun session. This is your best bet, hands down.

Sunday afternoon glassed off completely with a light 3 mph breeze from the NNW, but the swell drops a touch to 3ft. Surfable, but nothing to write home about. The energy drops to 390.

Monday the 20th sees a bit more size, but the wind picks up hard. The morning has a 4ft swell with a long 16-second period, but that 16 mph cross-off wind is going to make it messy. The afternoon is no better.

Tuesday the 21st is a bit of a tease. The morning has a 6ft swell with a 14-second period, but the wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off. The energy is strong, hitting 1068, but the wind is just enough to put a wrinkle on it. The afternoon is cleaner with a lighter 9 mph breeze, and the swell sticks at 6ft. It’s a possibility, but the Sunday is cleaner.

From Wednesday the 22nd onwards, it gets ugly. We see a massive spike in southerly wind and rain, with the swell jumping to 12ft and even 15ft by Friday the 24th. The wind hits 31 mph, and the combined energy rockets into the thousands (4651 on Thursday morning). That’s big, angry, and blown-out surf. This is strictly for experts only if they even want to try it, and honestly, it looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. The wind is cross-on and onshore, and the period drops to 7 seconds on Wednesday afternoon, just making it a complete mess.

This messy, windy pattern sticks around through the weekend and into the following week. Monday the 27th still has 6ft swell but onshore gales. Tuesday the 28th has a cleaner 3ft swell from the SSW with a 15-second period, but the wind is still a moderate 16 mph cross-shore, which will keep it choppy.

The second week from July 29th onward is a write-off. The wind stays strong, the swell is small and disorganised, and the conditions are marked as poor. There’s a tiny window on Monday, August 3rd with a clean 4ft swell and a long 20-second period, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph and the call is marginal. It’s a long way off and very uncertain.

So, if you’re keen, Sunday morning, July 19th is the call. Get out early, enjoy the clean lines, and don’t bother with the rest of the week.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NW by Tue night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 31mm), heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Mainly near gales.

Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
1
0
0
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
WSW
13
1
WSW
12
0.8
WSW
12
1.1
WSW
16
0.7
SW
15
0.8
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1
WSW
12
2.5
WSW
7
3
WSW
11
3.5
SW
13
3
SW
13
3.5
WSW
15
3.5
W
10
4.5
WSW
12
3.5
WSW
14
3
WSW
13
3.5
WSW
12
3
WSW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
402
283
161
627
229
268
1068
922
543
294
671
1749
4651
3651
5101
2076
5404
4007
3354
3267
2187
Wind (km/h)
10
N
5
NNW
15
NNW
25
NNW
20
NW
20
NW
20
NNW
15
NNW
30
NNW
35
NW
40
W
40
WNW
50
WSW
50
WSW
45
W
50
WNW
50
WNW
45
W
50
W
30
SW
20
WNW
Wind State
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross
High Tide
3:26PM0.83m
3:48AM0.75m
4:06PM0.82m
4:39AM0.74m
4:44PM0.80m
5:28AM0.72m
5:21PM0.76m
6:14AM0.70m
5:57PM0.73m
7:01AM0.68m
6:33PM0.69m
7:50AM0.65m
7:12PM0.66m
Low Tide
9:43PM0.11m
9:51AM0.13m
10:28PM0.09m
10:36AM0.17m
11:11PM0.08m
11:19AM0.22m
11:51PM0.09m
12:01PM0.27m
00:31AM0.11m
12:43PM0.31m
1:13AM0.13m
1:29PM0.35m
1:57AM0.16m
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
light rain
mod rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
mod rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:30
7:28
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:26
7:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:16
5:17
5:17
5:19
5:20
5:21
5:22
 mm
1
3
8
2
2
3
1
6
5
3
1
Temp °C
12
14
14
13
14
13
12
14
12
13
12
10
10
10
11
11
12
13
12
12
12
Feels °C
8
11
11
7
9
8
7
10
6
5
4
1
-1
-2
1
0
4
5
2
5
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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