Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, it's Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this outlook for the Cape Paterson area is a bit of a mixed bag. We're looking at a solid 16-day window, but the first week is a real write-off with some serious wind and lumpy conditions. The best swell is on the way, but you'll need patience and a sharp eye on the wind.

The first few days are a bust. We've got a strong SW groundswell coming in on Saturday the 25th, with a combined energy of 2665, pumping in at 10 feet and 12 seconds, but it's getting hammered by a fresh cross-onshore breeze. It's just poor, messy, and not worth a paddle. That nasty wind hangs around through Sunday and Monday, with the swell dropping but the quality staying poor. You'll be waiting.

Monday morning the 27th is the first real glimmer. The wind swings to a clean cross-offshore from the NNW, and we've got a 4-foot, 11-second SW swell with a combined energy of 430. The score is marginal, but it’s clean. It's not a standout, but it's the first breathable air of the week.

Then the wind turns nasty again Tuesday and Wednesday, with a massive 10-foot to 12-foot, short-period swell on Tuesday afternoon that's just messy and dangerous. That's for experts only, and even then, the wind is a problem. The surf is poor.

The real standout, the one you've been waiting for, is Monday the 3rd of August. The morning is looking clean with a 7-foot, 15-second SW groundswell, but the true magic is the afternoon. We've got a light offshore breeze from the NE, with the swell holding at 7 feet and 15 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 1797, and the conditions are described as "clean." This is a genuine, high-quality window. The wave period is long, so it'll be a proper groundswell, with more energy and longer gaps between sets – perfect for a point break style setup. This is the best on offer, no contest.

The following week has some promise, but it's less certain. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th have clean, cross-offshore winds with smaller 4-foot to 5-foot, 13-14 second SW swells, but the energy is lower. Thursday the 6th brings a surprise: an 8-foot, 8-second SSE swell in the morning with clean light winds. The energy is 1314, but the short period will make it a bit walled-up and tricky. It's a very different beast to the SW groundswell.

After that, it all gets a bit messy again with strong winds and dropping swell, until the very end of the outlook. Sunday the 9th of August has a tiny 3-foot, 13-second SW swell with a light offshore breeze, which is clean but small. It's a way off, so keep an eye on it.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The standout is Monday afternoon the 3rd of August. That's your best bet. The rest is a waiting game with a few smaller, cleaner windows in the second week. Stay patient, and don't force it.

Rusty.

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