Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day forecast for Cape Paterson is a tough one to read. We’ve got a massive gap of nothing but poor surf for the first five days, so don’t even bother waxing your board until at least the 12th of September.

The real story here is a big, long-period SW groundswell that shows up mid-week, but it’s been absolutely hammered by strong onshore winds. Monday 7th and Tuesday 8th are a write-off with 22 mph southerlies and 12 ft of slop. The water is sitting at 57°, which is about a degree warmer than normal for this time of year, so not a major shock, but you’ll still want a good steamer.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Saturday the 12th. After a week of dirty conditions, the wind swings to a light SSW breeze and goes glassy by the afternoon. You’ll get a clean 6 ft SW swell with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 1474. It’s not huge, but for a break that’s sheltered and fairly consistent, this is your best window. For the advanced crew, this is the one to target.

We’ve got a few other days that are worth a look if you’re keen. Tuesday the 16th has a 8 ft SW groundswell (15 seconds) but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. The real standout, though, is Sunday the 20th. An excellent morning for experienced surfers: 7 ft of WSW swell with a 16-second period, light ESE cross-offshore wind, and clean conditions. The combined energy is moderate at 2257. This is a proper, lined-up day at Cape Paterson.

Then, on the 22nd of September, we get a glassy morning with a 5 ft SW swell and a very long 19-second period. The energy is strong at 3366. This is a deep-water groundswell, so it’ll be breaking long and clean, but be aware that long-period swells can be a bit too straight for beach breaks. The point here should handle it well.

Crowds are possible at this spot, but given it’s an advanced break and the conditions are often messy, you might get it to yourself mid-week.

For the rest of the period, it’s a mix of strong winds and lumpy, cross-onshore junk. The 14th and 15th are blown out, and the 18th is clean but underpowered. The 19th has a 10 ft WSW swell but with a 12 mph cross-onshore, it’s going to be a messy, choppy affair. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-out.

So, if you’re patient, the 12th afternoon and the 20th morning are your best bets. The 22nd morning is a wildcard that could be epic. The rest is a write-off.

Rusty.

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