Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for Cape Paterson is a mixed bag, and there’s a fair bit of waiting around for the right windows. The overall pattern is a run of solid SW groundswell, but the wind is the enemy for most of it. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small win.

We start off with a pulse of swell on Thursday the 10th, but it’s a write-off: 8ft of SW swell with a 16-second period, packing a moderate 3546 combined energy, but the wind is a messy cross-on from the WSW at 12 mph. It’s a write-off for a paddle. Friday the 11th is similar – still 7ft of long-period SW groundswell, but the wind is onshore or cross-on, making it choppy and marginal. The energy is still decent (1814 to 2021), but the conditions are poor.

Now, Saturday morning the 12th is the standout. The swell drops slightly to 7ft, still from the SW with a 16-second period, and the energy is strong at 2057. The wind shifts to a light cross-off from the north at 3 mph, and it’s clean. This is the best on offer for the whole period. The 7ft size is still solid, so it’s for experienced surfers, but the clean conditions will make it worth it. The long period means it’ll be a bit fat and straight on the beach, so look for the banks. Sunday the 13th drops off to 5ft, and the wind is cleaner from the NNW, but the energy is weak (763). Monday the 14th is a write-off with fresh cross winds.

There’s a gap of poor conditions from Monday the 14th through to the following weekend. The swell jumps back up to 10ft on Tuesday the 15th, but it’s onshore and messy. That’s too big and blown out for most. The energy is strong (2757 to 3459), but the wind is your enemy. The same story continues for the next few days.

We get a brief reprieve on Monday the 21st of September. The swell is small, only 3ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the energy is weak (448). But the wind is glassy – dead calm, 0 mph. That’s a rare treat. The waves will be tiny and clean, so it’s a longboard morning. The consistency is listed as “fairly consistent” for the break, so it’s not a total surprise. Tuesday the 22nd also looks okay: 4ft of WSW swell with a 13-second period, clean cross-off winds from the NNE. The energy is still moderate (750).

After that, the forecast gets messy again through to the end of the window. The wind picks up and the quality drops. There’s a late pulse of 8ft swell on Friday the 25th, but it’s a cross-on mess.

So, the standout is Saturday morning the 12th – that’s your best bet. The glassy Monday the 21st is a novelty for the keen. The rest of the window is a write-off due to wind. There are no good options for beginners during this period, and the 8ft+ days are strictly for experts. Cape Paterson itself is a sheltered spot, so it needs the right wind, which just isn’t on offer much.

Rusty.

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