Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 23 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 17s period, WSW swell with 2,968 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.2m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest, it’s a slow start, but there’s a little light at the end of the tunnel if you’re willing to wait.
First off, the water temp is about 56°F – that’s roughly a degree and a half warmer than what’s normal for this time of year. Nothing crazy, but it’s a nice touch if you’re gonna get wet.
We’ve got a long stretch of nothing good coming up. From now until at least Sunday, September 6th, there’s a big gap with mostly marginal or poor conditions – windy, onshore, and choppy. A few mornings show clean waves, but the scores just aren’t there. You’d be better off staying home.
The standout window, and really the only one worth talking about, is Sunday morning, September 6th. That’s looking like a ripper. We’ve got a solid 8ft swell coming from the WSW, with a light 10 km/h (about 6 mph) NW breeze keeping the surface glassy. The wave energy is pumping with a reading of 2058 – that’s strong stuff. The period is 12 seconds, so it’s a groundswell with real push. This one is for the experienced crew – that size is too big for beginners. It’ll be offering powerful, well-shaped waves. Just remember, with that long period at a beach break, it can tend to close out a bit, but with clean offshore wind, Cape Paterson should be putting on a show.
Before that, there’s a tease on Friday, August 28th, with some big energy readings (2274 and 2612) and a very long 17-18 second period, but the wind is messy – cross-shore chop that’ll ruin the face. It’s a look, but not a go.
After that Sunday standout, it turns ugly again. Monday, September 7th brings a massive 13ft swell but with howling onshore winds near gale force – that’s blown-out mayhem, and the break quality is zero. That’s kite-surfing weather, not paddle surfing.
So here’s the bottom line: if you can wait, the morning of Sunday, September 6th is your one real shot at something special. Everything else is a wash. Keep an eye on it, but for now, that’s the word.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1979 | 1617 | 1394 | 822 | 671 | 594 | 613 | 659 | 1142 | 1143 | 745 | 816 | 456 | 151 | 790 | 1415 | 2612 | 1811 | 1301 | 862 | 563 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — |
 | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
| kJ | 1979 | 1617 | 1394 | 822 | 671 | 594 | 613 | 659 | 1142 | 1143 | 745 | 816 | 456 | 149 | 649 | 852 | 2612 | 1811 | 1301 | 862 | 563 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 23 | SW 12 | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | SW 19 |
| kJ | 214 | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | 82 | 240 | — | — | — | 26 | 52 | 151 | 790 | 1415 | — | — | — | — | 133 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 15 | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 19 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 32 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | 21 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 59 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | ENE 3 | — | SW 3 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | — | NW 2 | W 4 | — | NW 3 | — | — | W 5 | WSW 5 | SW 6 |
| kJ | — | — | 5 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 2 | — | 4 | 55 | 55 | — | 1 | 13 | — | 7 | — | — | 37 | 66 | 64 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 20 | 126 | 113 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 52 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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