Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 30 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 7,743 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 30 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.9m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this outlook for Cape Paterson is a real tough one. We’ve got a 16-day window and the first week is a write-off with strong, messy winds and poor surf. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for the time of year, so no surprises there.
The good news is we’ve got a couple of standout windows, but you’ll have to be patient. The first real chance doesn’t show up until the morning of Tuesday the 28th of July. We’ll have a fresh 8ft SW swell, with a long 15-second period, and clean cross-offshore winds. The combined energy is strong at 2247, so there’s plenty of power. This is a point-and-reef setup, so that long period should peel nicely, not just close out. But it’s an advanced break, and the crowds are sometimes an issue, so keep that in mind.
The absolute standout for the whole period, though, is Friday the 31st of July. The afternoon is calling for glassy conditions – dead calm – with a clean 3ft SW swell from an 11-second period. Combined energy is low at 169, so it’s not a big day, but it’ll be clean and perfectly catchable. This is the best chance for a fun, easy session.
Then, into the first week of August, there’s a promising run. The morning of Saturday the 1st of August is looking good with a 3ft SW groundswell, an 18-second period, and clean cross-offshore winds. Energy is moderate at 689. That’s a very long period, so it’ll be powerful for its size, but it might break a bit straight on the beach sections. Stick to the reef and it’ll be worth it. The afternoon holds similar with a 4ft swell from the same direction. After that, a fresh onshore wind kicks in from Sunday, and things get messy again.
So, in short: the first week is a dud. The second week has a couple of gems, with Friday the 31st of July offering the cleanest, most user-friendly waves, and the Saturday the 1st of August offering a bit more power for the experienced crew.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Mon morning, light winds from the WNW by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | W 12 | WSW 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1267 | 3716 | 4767 | 2989 | 6082 | 1647 | 1855 | 2488 | 1859 | 1379 | 657 | 673 | 551 | 523 | 661 | 984 | 952 | 1184 | 4276 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | |||||||
 |  | | |  | |  |  |  | |  | |  | | |  | | | | |
 | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — |
mm | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | — | 6 | — | — | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | — | 1 | 1 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 16 | — |
| kJ | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1647 | 565 | 623 | 357 | 1379 | 657 | 673 | 551 | 523 | 661 | 984 | 952 | 979 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25 | 11 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 8 | NW 4 | — | — | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | W 12 | WSW 10 |
| kJ | 1267 | 3716 | 4767 | 2989 | 6082 | 857 | 1855 | 2488 | 1859 | 582 | 12 | — | — | 22 | 13 | 20 | 38 | 1184 | 4276 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 114 | 141 | 141 | 114 | 113 | 35 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 443 | 54 | 5 | 114 | 117 | 705 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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