
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 17s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 9,782 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Cape Paterson.
We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag ahead, but there are some real gems if you’re willing to wait. The first week is pretty rough, with a lot of wind and wonky conditions, but the second week cleans right up and offers some of the best, cleanest surf we’ve seen in a while. The water temp is sitting right about average for this time of year, so nothing too wild on that front.
The first couple of days are a write-off. Sunday the 26th is a mess with a strong cross-on wind and a 6ft swell that’s all chopped up. The energy is high (825), but the quality is just poor. Monday the 27th cleans up a bit with a cross-off breeze, but the swell drops to 4ft and the energy is low (445). It’s barely rideable. Tuesday the 28th sees a clean cross-off wind but it’s blowing a strong 25 mph, making the 6ft swell a real handful and the energy moderate (919). Still not worth it.
Wednesday the 29th is a full-on blowout. The wind is howling onshore at 31 mph, the swell is a massive 13ft with a very long 17-second period, and the energy is insane (9131). This is pure survive-mode for experts only, and even then, it’s not fun. The next few days are similar with onshore winds and lumpy, questionable conditions through to the end of the month.
Now, here’s where it gets good. Saturday the 1st of August starts to show some promise. The morning is clean with a light cross-off breeze and a small 3ft swell from the southwest, but the period is a very long 18 seconds. The energy is moderate (638). It’s a slow, clean start to the day. The real standout, though, is Sunday the 2nd of August. This is the best on offer. The whole day is glassy with light offshore winds, a solid 6ft WSW swell, and a long 15-second period. The energy is strong (1294), but the conditions are clean. It’s a point-break style wave that will hold that long-period energy well. This is where you want to be.
The week after that is a bit of a letdown. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are blown out again with strong winds and onshore chop. Wednesday the 5th has a bigger 13ft swell but it’s messy and cross-on. The 6th of August (Thursday) sees a slight improvement with a light breeze and a 5ft SW swell, but it’s still cross-shore and a bit junky.
The final weekend, Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th, is looking promising again. Saturday the 8th is a real sleeper. The morning has a gentle offshore wind and a small 2ft swell but with a very long 16-second period (energy 520). The afternoon goes totally glassy, with a 3ft swell and calm wind. That’s going to be a beautiful, clean session. Sunday the 9th keeps the clean conditions with a moderate cross-off breeze and a 6ft WSW swell, but the energy is moderate (1386). A solid end to the run.
Overall, your best bet is Sunday the 2nd of August. That’s the day with the best combination of size, clean wind, and good energy. The Saturday the 8th is a close second for the glassy afternoon session and the morning offshore.
Stay stoked,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Sun night, strong winds from the NW by Tue afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the SW on Wed morning, light winds from the W by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | W 11 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
1304 | 814 | 643 | 441 | 389 | 411 | 668 | 919 | 671 | 1459 | 9131 | 7054 | 3446 | 1030 | 1494 | 960 | 533 | 344 | 263 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | |||||||
— | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | |
mm | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 15 | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 |
320 | 814 | 622 | 441 | 389 | 411 | 668 | 919 | 671 | 903 | — | — | 1701 | 1030 | — | 960 | 533 | 344 | 263 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 20 | SW 19 |
172 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 56 | — | — | — | 365 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 73 | 104 | 184 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | WSW 21 | S 4 | WSW 10 |
6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 45 | 1 | 22 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 11 | — | WSW 11 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 6 | NW 6 | W 11 | SW 17 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SSW 6 | SW 13 | — | — | — | — |
1304 | — | 643 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 50 | 176 | 131 | 1459 | 9131 | 7054 | 3446 | 127 | 1494 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 114 | 35 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 126 | 227 | 233 | 167 | 820 | 1122 | 117 | 114 | 126 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










