Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 10 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.8°C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 3,609 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Fri 11th Sep)7.5ft (2.3m) 16s
Best Surf10PM (Fri 11th Sep)7.5ft (2.3m) 16s
Most Powerful 7PM (Tue 15th Sep)10ft (3.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for Cape Paterson is a mixed bag, and there’s a fair bit of waiting around for the right windows. The overall pattern is a run of solid SW groundswell, but the wind is the enemy for most of it. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small win.

We start off with a pulse of swell on Thursday the 10th, but it’s a write-off: 8ft of SW swell with a 16-second period, packing a moderate 3546 combined energy, but the wind is a messy cross-on from the WSW at 12 mph. It’s a write-off for a paddle. Friday the 11th is similar – still 7ft of long-period SW groundswell, but the wind is onshore or cross-on, making it choppy and marginal. The energy is still decent (1814 to 2021), but the conditions are poor.

Now, Saturday morning the 12th is the standout. The swell drops slightly to 7ft, still from the SW with a 16-second period, and the energy is strong at 2057. The wind shifts to a light cross-off from the north at 3 mph, and it’s clean. This is the best on offer for the whole period. The 7ft size is still solid, so it’s for experienced surfers, but the clean conditions will make it worth it. The long period means it’ll be a bit fat and straight on the beach, so look for the banks. Sunday the 13th drops off to 5ft, and the wind is cleaner from the NNW, but the energy is weak (763). Monday the 14th is a write-off with fresh cross winds.

There’s a gap of poor conditions from Monday the 14th through to the following weekend. The swell jumps back up to 10ft on Tuesday the 15th, but it’s onshore and messy. That’s too big and blown out for most. The energy is strong (2757 to 3459), but the wind is your enemy. The same story continues for the next few days.

We get a brief reprieve on Monday the 21st of September. The swell is small, only 3ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the energy is weak (448). But the wind is glassy – dead calm, 0 mph. That’s a rare treat. The waves will be tiny and clean, so it’s a longboard morning. The consistency is listed as “fairly consistent” for the break, so it’s not a total surprise. Tuesday the 22nd also looks okay: 4ft of WSW swell with a 13-second period, clean cross-off winds from the NNE. The energy is still moderate (750).

After that, the forecast gets messy again through to the end of the window. The wind picks up and the quality drops. There’s a late pulse of 8ft swell on Friday the 25th, but it’s a cross-on mess.

So, the standout is Saturday morning the 12th – that’s your best bet. The glassy Monday the 21st is a novelty for the keen. The rest of the window is a write-off due to wind. There are no good options for beginners during this period, and the 8ft+ days are strictly for experts. Cape Paterson itself is a sheltered spot, so it needs the right wind, which just isn’t on offer much.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the N by Sun morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sun afternoon. Warm (max 22°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Mon night, light winds from the SW by Tue night).

Thu
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
3
2
2
4
4
2
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
16
2.3
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
2.2
SW
16
2.1
SW
16
1.9
SW
15
1.7
WSW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.2
SW
15
1.4
WSW
15
1.4
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
8
2.5
WSW
8
3
SW
13
3
SW
14
2.5
SW
14
2.5
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
3499
2418
1801
2021
2434
2054
1609
1222
763
693
857
733
329
837
2757
3459
2967
2978
2831
2146
Wind (km/h)
20
WSW
10
W
10
WSW
10
SW
5
NNE
5
N
5
SSE
15
N
15
NNW
25
NNW
20
W
30
WNW
30
WSW
35
WSW
25
WSW
25
SW
15
SW
10
SW
20
W
20
W
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
glassy
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
10:15PM0.66m
11:20AM0.70m
11:34PM0.68m
12:15PM0.72m
00:41AM0.72m
1:03PM0.74m
1:37AM0.75m
1:46PM0.75m
2:25AM0.78m
2:25PM0.76m
3:08AM0.79m
3:02PM0.76m
3:48AM0.79m
Low Tide
4:46AM0.17m
5:30PM0.25m
5:53AM0.18m
6:29PM0.19m
6:52AM0.18m
7:20PM0.13m
7:43AM0.18m
8:04PM0.09m
8:28AM0.18m
8:44PM0.06m
9:08AM0.19m
9:23PM0.06m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:26
6:24
6:22
6:20
6:18
6:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:01
6:02
6:04
6:05
6:06
6:07
6:07
 mm
2
2
Temp °C
11
11
11
11
11
14
17
17
20
22
15
14
16
13
12
12
12
11
10
10
Feels °C
7
9
8
8
10
12
15
13
14
17
12
9
10
6
5
6
7
7
5
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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