Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 30 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 30 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 4,969 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Mon 31st Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 14s
Best Surf 7PM (Mon 31st Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 14s
Most Powerful 1AM (Fri 4th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with ya—this stretch at Cape Paterson is a mixed bag of frustration and a few glimmers of hope, but mostly it’s gonna test your patience. We’ve got some solid, powerful swell coming through over the next 16 days, but the wind is truly the villain here, ruining most of the good energy.

The pattern overall is a long run of SW and WSW groundswell, with periods mostly between 13 and 17 seconds, which is proper long-period energy. That’s the kind of swell that has real grunt, but at a beach-and-reef setup like Cape Paterson, that long period can make it break a bit too straight and fast—it's better suited to a point or reef, something to keep in mind. The combined energy numbers are big, hitting four-digit values regularly, which tells you there’s plenty of ocean running out there.

Right now, from Sunday the 30th of August right through to Tuesday morning the 1st of September, we’ve got cross-onshore wind and messy, choppy surf. Swell is around 6 ft to 6 ft from the SW, but with 12 mph wind from the west chopping it up, it’s poor. Not worth paddling out for. Water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year—not a huge anomaly, but still a bit on the mild side for this early spring.

Tuesday morning the 1st of September is interesting—the wind swings to a strong cross-off from the NNW at 25 mph (Strong breeze), so it’s clean, with a 5 ft SW swell at a solid 16 seconds. The energy is moderate-high at 1060. The problem is that swell direction (SW) is not the optimum for Cape Paterson—they want it from the SW, so that’s not ideal. Still, clean conditions are rare, and a 16-second groundswell has some real power behind it. Just be aware the crowd can be an issue here sometimes.

The big stuff arrives Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd of September. We’re talking 8 ft to 12 ft from the WSW, with periods around 13-15 seconds and combined energy shooting up to 4324. That is strong to very strong energy. But the wind is cross-on or onshore and blowing 16-22 mph, making it lumpy and messy—honestly, this looks more interesting for the kite crew than for paddle surfing.

Friday the 4th of September offers a better window. Swell eases to 10 ft (WSW, 16 seconds) by morning, and the wind is cross-off from the NNW at 12 mph (Moderate breeze). It’s clean. The energy is still strong at 4004. It’s a big day though—over 8 ft, so really only for experienced surfers. The quality is marginal but the best we’ve seen since the start.

The best bet of the whole outlook is shaping up for Saturday the 12th of September. Morning sees clean conditions with a light cross-off breeze from the NNW at 6 mph, a solid 7 ft SW swell at 15 seconds, strong energy at 2231, and the swell direction (SW) matches the optimum direction for Cape Paterson. That’s a standout morning for experienced crew. Clean, long-period groundswell, decent size, and actual combo of good wind and good direction. That’s the one to circle. The 14th of September fades back to small, poor conditions.

There’s a long stretch of poor or marginal days early on, and then again mid-week the second week, with no real options between the 7th and 11th of September that are worth chasing.

Bottom line: hang tight through the messy, windy days, and the clean morning of Saturday the 12th of September is where it’s at. The Tuesday morning of the 1st of September is also clean and punchy, though the swell direction is a touch off. Stay keen.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds.

Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.8
SW
13
1.8
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.9
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.9
SW
17
1.5
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
2.3
WSW
10
2.4
WSW
15
2.4
WSW
15
2.5
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
13
3.5
WSW
13
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
15
2.2
SW
15
3.5
WSW
9
4.5
WSW
11
3
WSW
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1034
987
1261
1459
1307
2091
1060
816
978
2446
2479
2878
4324
4675
4969
4004
3040
2010
2072
4682
2423
Wind (km/h)
20
W
20
W
20
WSW
15
W
10
W
15
N
40
NNW
40
NW
35
WNW
30
WNW
25
WNW
40
NW
35
WNW
35
WSW
25
WNW
20
NNW
30
NNW
40
NNW
40
W
45
WSW
25
WSW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
on
cross-on
High Tide
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
3:41PM0.78m
4:32AM0.80m
4:18PM0.78m
5:16AM0.79m
4:57PM0.77m
Low Tide
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
8:27AM0.18m
8:49PM0.10m
9:07AM0.18m
9:26PM0.06m
9:47AM0.19m
10:04PM0.03m
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
11:08AM0.24m
11:30PM0.02m
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
cloud
rain showers
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
heavy rain
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:43
6:41
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:52
5:53
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
5:58
 mm
1
4
1
14
5
1
Temp °C
11
11
10
11
11
12
17
19
15
13
13
13
13
13
12
13
17
14
12
12
11
Feels °C
7
8
6
8
9
8
8
11
8
7
7
5
5
6
6
9
11
6
4
3
4
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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