Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Cape Paterson.

Honestly mate, the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. The wind is all over the shop, mostly howling onshore or cross-shore and cross-on, and the swell is just messy. We’ve got a big pulse of energy showing up from the 16th, with a combined swell energy reading of 3286 – that’s strong stuff – but it’s a 10ft SW groundswell with a 25 km/h SSW wind right on it. It’s just blown out, poor conditions. That theme hangs around for days.

You’re looking at Wednesday the 16th through to Monday the 21st, all poor surf. The wind is brutal – strong breezes, fresh breezes, cross-chop everywhere. Even when we get a bit of size on Saturday the 19th with an 8ft WSW swell, the cross-wind at 35 km/h just tears it apart. Not worth paddling out.

The first real hope comes on Tuesday the 22nd. The morning is looking clean, with a light offshore ESE breeze at 15 km/h and a solid 8ft SW groundswell, period of 15 seconds. That’s a long-period swell, proper groundswell, and with those glassy offshores, the setup at this sheltered beach and reef spot will have some nice, clean lines. The combined swell energy is 2203 – strong. This is the standout of the whole forecast. It’s a morning window for experienced surfers.

From there, we get a couple of mellow days. Wednesday the 23rd morning is clean again, light NNE breeze, 6ft SW swell. Nice and surfable, but nothing huge. Then we hit a flat spell from Thursday the 24th right into Friday the 25th – small swell, under 3ft, and not much energy (377 down to 299). A bit of a lull.

Then the next standout shows up on Saturday the 26th. The morning is glassy – 5 km/h WNW, just dead calm – and the swell is only 3ft, but the period is 20 seconds. That is very long period groundswell. That kind of energy pushes in slow, powerful, clean lines. Combined swell energy is 1306. For a reef and beach mix like Cape Paterson, those long-period swells can be pure magic if they hit the right bank. It’ll be small but shaped beautifully.

Sunday the 27th keeps the clean run going with light offshore ENE breezes, 6ft SW swell, period 17 seconds. Another very good session on offer, with energy at 1697. This stretch from the 26th to the 27th is your second-best window.

Later on, we get a surprise on Wednesday the 30th afternoon: a clean 10ft WSW swell, but the period drops to 8 seconds – that’s short period wind swell. It’s got energy (1367) and it’s clean with a 15 km/h SE cross-off, but the short period means steeper, less powerful waves. It’ll be fat and quick. And then into Thursday the 1st of October, another big clean swell rolls in for the morning with 8ft SW groundswell, light NW cross-shore, and energy of 2685 – that’s strong. By Thursday afternoon it’s glassy, 8ft SW, period 14 seconds, and a score of excellent. That’s a belter of a finish if it holds.

Water temp right now on the 16th is 57°F with a anomaly of 2°, so you’re looking at water a touch warmer than normal for the time of year. You’ll still want a decent steamer.

So to sum it up: the real gems are Tuesday the 22nd morning, the glassy Saturday 26th morning, and the Sunday 27th. The long-range Thursday the 1st of October looks like another cracker, but we’re two weeks out so take that with a pinch of salt. The rest is either too windy or too small. Not much in between. Cape Paterson is a sheltered spot so it needs that wind to get off it, and when it does, it’s gold.

Rusty.

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