Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks is a tough one. We’re looking at a long run of poor conditions before anything really clicks into place. The first real surf on offer isn’t until late in the period, so patience is the name of the game. Water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year, so not too bad in the wetsuit.

The pattern for the next week and a half is dominated by a big, energetic southwest swell – the combined energy readings are often in the thousands, showing plenty of power in the water. But the problem is the wind. It’s mostly cross-onshore or onshore, from the west or southwest, with speeds from 12 mph right up to a punching 28 mph. That’s going to chop things up badly at this beach and reef setup. A lot of days are marked as “poor surf conditions” – it’s going to be messy, lumpy, and not worth the paddle out unless you’re after a fight. The swell gets big, too big for most. Saturday the 5th of September has a 13 ft WSW swell with clean cross-off winds, but that's a whole lot of water for only the most experienced crew, and it’s still a marginal call.

There’s a little glimmer early on Friday the 28th of August. It’s not a standout, but if you’re desperate, the midday session shows a 8 ft groundswell from the WSW (17-second period) with a light southwest onshore wind of just 6 mph. The combined energy is massive, meaning there’s heaps of power, but with the wind straight on it’s going to be a raw, walled-up affair. That’s one for the experts only – that kind of size and period on a beach and reef can be pretty hairy.

Then you have to wait. There’s a solid gap of poor conditions. Then Wednesday the 9th of September morning shows a brief window. The swell drops right down to 5 ft from the SW, but the real kicker is the wind: absolutely dead calm with zero wind – glassy conditions. Combined energy is moderate. This is the only time in the whole run where it’s going to be smooth and clean. The crowd factor says “sometimes” here, so you might have a few other keen locals in the know, but for a clean 5 ft SW swell at a spot that’s “fairly consistent,” this is your best bet by a long shot. It’s nothing huge, but the quality of the conditions makes it the true standout.

After that, the wind turns messy again and we get another moderate swell building. The 11th of September has a 6 ft WSW swell with a very long 17-second period and a light cross-onshore breeze from the SSE at 6 mph. That’s an option, but it’s marginal with the wind ripple. By the 12th of September we’re back to a big 13 ft W/SW swell with a lot of energy, but it’s cross-shore wind again, so lumpy.

So to wrap it up for you: hold out for Wednesday the 9th of September morning for that clean, calm dawn session. Don’t bother with the rest unless you’re a die-hard looking for a paddle in the chop.

- Rusty

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