Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 19 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 26 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 10s period, WSW swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 26 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 10s period, WSW swell with 3,500 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 26) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Wed 26th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 26th Aug) | 15ft (4.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way.
First up, we’ve got a long stretch of mostly ordinary surf ahead. The combined swell energy is moderate at best for a while, and the winds are just not playing nice. We’re looking at a gap of several days with no real recommendations, so don’t get your hopes up early.
Starting on Wednesday, August 19th, we’ve got a bit of swell at Cape Paterson but it’s pretty poor. A 2ft SW groundswell with a long 15-second period is coming in, but the 25 km/h north wind is cross-off, and the water temp is 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The combined energy is weak (229). Not worth paddling out.
Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st are more of the same – messy cross-shore winds and building swell, but it’s lumpy and choppy. Friday afternoon sees a 7ft WSW swell with a 14-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 2234 (moderate), but the wind is cross and it’s only marginal. Still not a goer.
Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd stay poor. Saturday morning has 8ft of WSW swell, but it’s cross-on and choppy. Sunday afternoon clears up with a light WNW breeze, but the 7ft swell is still cross-shore and only marginal.
Now, the first real standout looks like Friday, August 28th afternoon. The wind goes glassy, and we’ve got a solid 10ft WSW groundswell with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is massive (6170), so this is a powerful, clean swell. But heads up – at 10ft, this is strictly for experienced surfers. The long period means it’s a proper groundswell that will hold up well at the reef and points. This is the best on offer in the whole window.
Saturday, August 29th morning is also a strong option. The swell holds at 10ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the wind is light offshore from the east. Clean, powerful, and for experts only. The combined energy is very high (2925).
After that, the surf drops back. Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st have smaller, cleaner waves, but nothing special. The 31st has a 4ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, light offshore wind, and a combined energy of 1332. It’s a great day for a longboard if you can handle the long gaps between sets.
The very end of the window, into early September, looks small and clean but nothing to write home about. The 2nd of September has glassy conditions with a 3ft SW groundswell (16 seconds) and combined energy of 581. Nice for a quiet session.
So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. The standout is the afternoon of Friday, August 28th – glassy, big, and powerful. Saturday morning the 29th is a close second. Everything else is small or messy.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Mon morning, calm by Mon night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 7 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
229 | 268 | 328 | 198 | 294 | 740 | 1548 | 3042 | 2808 | 2655 | 2346 | 1774 | 1444 | 1322 | 834 | 711 | 610 | 620 | 496 | 369 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | |||||||
— | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | |
5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | |
mm | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 |
229 | 268 | 158 | 198 | 294 | 740 | 1548 | 1165 | 2808 | 2655 | 2346 | 1774 | 1444 | 1322 | 834 | 711 | 610 | 620 | 496 | 202 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 20 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 20 | SW 18 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 |
5 | 43 | 128 | 140 | 181 | 253 | 439 | — | — | — | — | 157 | — | — | 18 | 38 | 83 | 78 | 173 | 144 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 7 | SE 8 | E 7 | — | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 5 | SW 13 |
— | 2 | 3 | 4 | — | 42 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 83 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 9 | W 8 | W 5 | W 7 | WSW 7 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | — | — | WSW 7 |
29 | 41 | 328 | 167 | 92 | 254 | 208 | 3042 | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | 40 | 18 | 2 | — | — | 369 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 105 | 35 | 41 | 52 | 113 | 5 | 35 | 35 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 5 | 5 | 66 | 78 | 244 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











