Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 28 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 3 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 14s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 13s period, WSW swell with 5,461 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 03) at 4PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Mon 31st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Best Surf 1AM (Thu 3rd Sep)7.5ft (2.3m) 14s
Most Powerful 7AM (Fri 4th Sep)13ft (4.0m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a proper look at what’s coming our way for Cape Paterson. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and we’ll have to be patient.

Look, for the next couple of weeks, we’ve got some serious size on the cards, but the wind is going to be a major headache for most of it. The water’s sitting at about 57°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – not a huge deal, but you might notice the difference. The first real chance of anything that’s worth getting wet for, based on the clean conditions and the swell, is shaping up for Tuesday the 8th of September.

The real standout in this whole run is Cape Paterson. It is a sheltered, advanced spot, and it only breaks fairly consistently. Don’t expect a perfect wave every day. The best window we’ve got is on Tuesday the 8th of September. In the morning we’re looking at a 5ft swell from the SW, but the wind will be light and offshore from the ESE. That’s going to make for some clean, smooth faces. The swell energy is moderate at 898, and with a long 14-second period, the waves will have some real punch and shape to them. This is your best bet for a proper session. Later that afternoon the wind picks up, but the morning session is where it’s at.

Leading up to that, we’ve got a lot of noise. Right from Friday the 28th of August, we’ve got a 6ft swell but with a messy cross-shore wind that has it looking like a washing machine. The same story goes for the weekend and into the start of next week – size is there, but the wind is just ruining it. We get a big jump in size around the 4th and 5th of September, with 10ft to 15ft waves, but the wind is sadly blowing straight onshore or across it, making it a complete write-off for a standard paddle board. With that size and those winds, it’s looking more like a kite-surfing zone than a surfer’s paradise.

Later on, around Friday the 11th of September, there’s another pulse of energy. The morning brings a 7ft swell with clean offshore winds from the NNW – that's promising. But the real eye-catcher is the Friday afternoon with a 10ft swell from the WSW and an 18-second period. That’s a massive, very long-period groundswell. The energy reading is through the roof at 6421. It’ll be hard to handle. That size is strictly for the experts, and at a beach-and-reef set-up, that long-period swell can make the waves break a bit too straight. It’s one to watch, but you need to know what you’re doing.

So, to sum it up: there’s a lot of angry ocean out there for the first 10 days. The real window for a clean, fun, manageable surf is that Tuesday morning on the 8th. The Friday the 11th has potential for the big guns, but it’s a more dangerous game.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Tue morning).

Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3
0
0
1
1
0
4
0
1
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.8
WSW
13
2.3
WSW
17
2.1
WSW
16
1.9
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.8
SW
13
1.7
SW
12
1.8
SW
13
1.9
SW
14
1.8
SW
15
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.9
WSW
10
2.2
WSW
14
2.2
SW
14
2.3
WSW
14
2.4
WSW
14
2.5
WSW
14
4
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1137
2987
2178
1447
934
700
1034
888
1018
1387
1325
1961
1284
939
688
2033
1903
2031
2191
2405
5435
Wind (km/h)
25
NW
15
SW
15
WSW
20
W
20
W
20
W
20
W
15
W
15
W
20
W
10
WSW
15
N
35
NNW
35
NNW
35
NNW
30
NW
20
WSW
10
NNW
35
NW
35
NW
50
WNW
Wind State
cross
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
on
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
High Tide
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
3:41PM0.78m
Low Tide
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
6:59AM0.19m
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
8:27AM0.18m
8:49PM0.10m
9:07AM0.18m
9:26PM0.06m
9:47AM0.19m
10:04PM0.03m
light rain
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
cloud
rain showers
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:47
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:41
6:39
6:37
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:51
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:53
5:54
5:55
 mm
1
2
4
Temp °C
11
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
13
13
18
19
18
15
13
12
14
15
15
Feels °C
8
9
6
6
7
8
8
8
8
8
12
9
10
12
11
10
9
11
7
8
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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