Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 3,030 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Fri 7th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s talk about Cape Paterson in proper units. The first decent session is this Saturday morning – a clean 3ft SW swell with a light NNE cross-off breeze at 6 mph, 12-second period. The water’s about 57°F, which is normal for winter, and the combined energy is moderate (546). Not a monster, but a nice way to start.
Saturday afternoon is the real deal. Swell builds to 5ft from the SW with a very long 18-second period – that’s prime groundswell. The wind goes glassy, WSW at 3 mph, and the energy jumps to strong (1471). This is one of the best moments of the forecast: clean, glassy, and solid. Just remember, with that long period (over 15 seconds), the beach and reef setup at Cape Paterson might make the waves break a bit straight, but the quality is undeniable.
Sunday morning stays clean with 5ft SW swell, 16-second period, and a NNE cross-off at 9 mph, energy still strong (1390). Sunday afternoon gets windier from the NNW, turning marginal. Saturday afternoon is still the pick.
Then the wheels fall off. From Monday, 3rd August, through to the end of the following week, it’s a mess. Strong winds, rain, and onshore slop. Monday morning has 25 mph NW winds with a cross-shore, and by afternoon it’s 10ft of short-period WSW slop (8 seconds) – total junk. Tuesday through Thursday are all poor with onshore wind and chop. The swell drops to nothing on the 5th and 6th, barely 2ft to 3ft. That’s a five-day dry spell.
Friday, 7th August – now we’re cooking. Friday morning brings a standout: 6ft WSW swell, 16-second period, light NNW cross-off wind at 6 mph, and massive energy (2331). Clean and excellent for experienced surfers. This is the second big highlight. Friday afternoon holds 5ft SW swell, 15-second period, glassy NW wind – very good.
Saturday the 8th is okay but windier, and from Sunday the 9th to Tuesday the 11th it’s back to poor. But Tuesday, 11th August morning is another standout: 8ft WSW swell, 15-second period, light NNW cross-off, and energy at 2717. That’s a big, clean swell for experts only – over 8ft means it’s serious. The light wind keeps it clean.
Wednesday the 12th holds 8ft SW swell with a 13-second period, but the wind goes cross-shore, making it marginal. The 14th Friday morning has 8ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period, light wind, and strong energy (3597), but the wind is onshore, so it’s messy. The 16th Sunday morning is a nice surprise: 3ft SW swell with a 19-second period, light NNW cross-off, and clean – a sweet, long-period groundswell for a relaxed paddle.
Best windows: Saturday afternoon (1st August), Friday morning (7th August), and Tuesday morning (11th August). The long-period swells will work best on the reef at Cape Paterson. Circle the 7th and 11th – those are the ones.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the WNW by Mon morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 20 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 292 | 1465 | 1915 | 1384 | 1273 | 1102 | 597 | 857 | 820 | 1570 | 1301 | 866 | 186 | 362 | 299 | 149 | 174 | 1186 | 1721 | 905 | 851 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:00PM0.73m | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | ||||||||
 | |  | | |  |  |  | |  | |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | |
 | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — |
 | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | — | WSW 13 | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | 292 | 1465 | 1915 | 1384 | 1273 | 1102 | 597 | — | 820 | — | — | 111 | 76 | 362 | 299 | 149 | 174 | 1186 | 1721 | 905 | 851 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | WSW 20 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 8 | SW 19 | SSW 5 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SE 10 | WSW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 |
| kJ | 249 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 75 | 302 | — | — | — | — | 112 | 41 | 177 | 19 | 127 | 118 | 4 | 419 | 546 | 375 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 4 | SW 20 | — | SE 8 | SW 5 | SSW 5 |
| kJ | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 186 | 73 | 154 | 12 | 98 | — | 3 | 38 | 14 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 4 | W 6 | WSW 8 | WSW 7 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | — | — | WSW 4 | WSW 4 | WSW 8 | SSW 5 | — |
| kJ | — | — | 6 | 9 | 38 | 24 | 356 | 857 | 301 | 1570 | 1301 | 866 | 155 | 75 | — | — | 5 | 20 | 188 | 25 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 141 | 114 | 114 | 114 | 437 | 81 | 52 | 35 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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