Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 20 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,875 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty, checkin’ in from the coast. Let’s be straight with you – the next two weeks at Cape Paterson look like a real mixed bag. We’re in for a rough patch to start, with some big, messy energy rollin’ through, but there’s a couple of brief windows where it could clean up if you’re patient. The water temp is sittin’ about average for this time of year, so nothin’ wild there.
The first few days are a write-off. Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd are pumping with strong swell energy, but a fresh cross-shore and cross-onshore wind is just makin’ a lumpy, choppy mess of things. Not worth paddlin’ out.
Sunday the 23rd gets a little better. The swell drops to 8ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the wind eases off. The morning is still a bit cross, but the afternoon lightens up. It’s still marginal, with a cross-chop, but you might find a couple of so-so ones if you’re desperate.
Monday the 24th is poor again – fresh cross-off wind in the morning but the swell’s small and weak. Not your day.
Now, here’s your first real standout. Tuesday morning, 25th of August. The wind goes glassy, absolutely dead calm, with a 5ft WSW swell and a 13-second period. It’s clean, it’s glassy, and it’s got enough push. This is the best morning of the whole run. The crowd factor is listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few out, but that glassy window will be gold. Get in the water early.
Tuesday afternoon goes downhill fast with a cross-on shorey and a choppy 7ft. Wednesday the 26th is a full-on mess – 12ft SW swell but with a short, weak 8-second period and a fresh cross-onshore. That’s a lot of water movin’ but nothin’ you’d wanna paddle into. Too big for beginners, too messy for anyone.
We get a bit of a breather from Thursday the 27th through the end of the month – small, weak swells (under 5ft) and mostly cross or cross-on wind. A few clean moments pop up, like Saturday morning the 29th with a 4ft swell from the WSW and a clean cross-off breeze. It’s not big, but it’s rideable. The energy is weak, so you’ll be huntin’ for the little ones.
The end of the run, around Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st, gets real small – 3ft down to 2ft. The 31st has a super long 21-second period SW groundswell, but it’s tiny. That long period will make it break real straight at this beach-and-reef setup, so not ideal. Still, glassy and clean conditions on Sunday afternoon with 3ft could be a fun little cruiser board session.
Lookin’ into the first week of September, the first few days are marginal at best – small swells, a bit of cross-chop. By Thursday the 3rd, the swell picks up to 8ft from the WSW with a 14-second period, but it’s onshore wind and messy. Friday the 4th has some serious energy with a 6ft SW swell and 18-second period, but a fresh cross-shore will make it lumpy. That’s a lot of power for a messy day – could be more for the kite crew than the paddle crew.
Overall, the best bet by a mile is Tuesday morning, the 25th of August. Glassy, clean, solid 5ft swell. Get on it. After that, Saturday the 29th morning is your next best clean option on a smaller day.
Stay salty,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, fresh winds from the SSW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 17 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 8 | SW 13 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
294 | 740 | 630 | 1693 | 5875 | 4594 | 3023 | 1922 | 1697 | 1531 | 834 | 711 | 558 | 784 | 2290 | 4209 | 1371 | 2459 | 995 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on |
High Tide | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | |||||||
— | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | |
mm | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 17 | — | — | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | WSW 13 |
294 | 740 | 630 | 1693 | — | — | 3023 | 1922 | 1697 | 1531 | 834 | 711 | 558 | 784 | 390 | — | — | — | 995 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 19 | WSW 17 | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | SW 17 | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | SSW 6 |
181 | 251 | 528 | — | — | — | — | 214 | 459 | — | — | 15 | 32 | 211 | — | — | — | — | 50 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 |
— | — | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 5 | W 6 | W 7 | W 8 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 8 | SW 13 | — |
52 | 182 | 211 | 446 | 5875 | 4594 | — | — | — | — | 24 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 2290 | 4209 | 1371 | 2459 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 35 | 52 | 113 | 113 | 117 | 126 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 81 | 45 | 364 | 81 | 81 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











