Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 9,324 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Mon 13th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. It’s gonna be a bit of a frustrating start, I won’t lie.
Alright, so, right off the bat, the immediate outlook is pretty ordinary. We’re looking at Saturday July 11th, and it’s pretty close to flat with just 3ft of weak, short-range WSW swell and howling northerly winds at 25 mph making a mess of things. The combined energy is weak at only 422. Sunday and Monday are actually dangerous—the swell pumps up to over 13ft (energy readings around 7500!), but it comes with gale-force winds that are gonna make it a close-out washing machine. Not surfable, honestly. That big windy period goes through until July 15th, so there’s about four days of nothing good.
Things start to settle down on Wednesday July 15th and Thursday the 16th. There’s still some decent swell around 5ft to 8ft, but the wind direction is still cranking onshore or cross-shore with chop. It’s only really worth it for the hardcore local who wants a paddle. By Friday morning July 17th, that’s where you need to focus your attention.
Friday the 17th is the standout. We’ll have a clean 7ft SW groundswell (16-second period, so plenty of energy with a reading of 2299) with a light NNW cross-offshore breeze. That is excellent, clean surf for experienced surfers. It’s still a solid 7ft, which is big for Cape Paterson, so best for those who know what they’re doing. The water temp is 57°—about average for this time of year.
After that, it drops off into the second week. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th keep a clean, mellow vibe as the swell backs off to 5ft to 4ft. The winds stay favorable, cross-offshore, but the energy drops to the 500-900 range—small but clean. There’s a decent window coming up on Saturday July 25th, about a week out, where we see that SW groundswell pick up again to 5ft with a 16-second period and a light cross-offshore breeze. Should be very good conditions, but keep your fingers crossed—it’s a long-range call and the forecast could shift.
For most of this fortnight, the wind just won’t line up, but Friday the 17th is your golden window. Get on it.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 36mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Mainly near gales. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Tue afternoon, light winds from the NW by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sat 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | W 6 | W 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 419 | 291 | 3607 | 5549 | 5428 | 7492 | 7040 | 9251 | 6834 | 5278 | 3573 | 2390 | 1722 | 1249 | 988 | 1002 | 988 | 2299 | 2066 | 1340 | 850 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  | |  | |  | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 |
 | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | 5:15 |
mm | — | 12 | 3 | 6 | 7 | — | 2 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 |
| kJ | 419 | 277 | — | — | — | — | 7040 | — | — | — | — | 2390 | 1722 | 1249 | 988 | 1002 | 988 | 2299 | 2066 | 1340 | 850 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 3 | 190 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 686 | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | W 6 | W 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | NW 6 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | — | — | — | NW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 |
| kJ | 37 | 291 | 3607 | 5549 | 5428 | 7492 | 133 | 9251 | 6834 | 5278 | 3573 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 49 | 120 | 429 | 764 | 141 | 443 | 447 | 493 | 113 | 117 | 41 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Cape Paterson surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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