Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 27 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 3,114 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Friday (Sep 04) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Mon 31st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 31st Aug)6ft (1.9m) 17s
Most Powerful 7PM (Wed 2nd Sep)8ft (2.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you straight up – this 16-day stretch for Cape Paterson is a tough one. It’s a real battle to find a window that’s worth paddling out for. We’ve got a lot of days ahead where the onshore wind and choppy conditions will have you wondering why you bothered.

For the next week and a half, it’s pretty grim. From Friday the 28th of August right through to Tuesday the 8th of September, there’s nothing that even gets close to a green light. We’ve got a solid run of poor surf conditions, with a cross-onshore wind from the west and southwest, making every session messy and lumpy. The swell is there, don’t get me wrong – it hangs around the 4ft to 8ft mark with a moderate combined energy you can feel (around 994 to 2987), and the period is decent at 12-18 seconds, meaning there’s some groundswell in the mix. But that wind just ruins it. Wednesday the 2nd of September afternoon sees a peak of 8ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, but it’s onshore and blown out. Even when the swell cranks up to 13ft from the 4th to the 6th of September – with combined energy readings of 5235 to 6885 – the wind is a strong to near gale, so that’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing. It’s just too dangerous and messy.

Then, there’s a glimmer. We need to fast forward to Friday the 11th of September. That’s the standout. The morning sees a big 13ft swell from the WSW, with that long 14-second period, pushing a massive 6014 combined energy. The wind swings to a light offshore from the NNE at just 6 mph, so the surface will be clean. The catch is, 13ft is big, even for this break. This is an advanced spot, and at that size, it’s for experts only. But the afternoon is where the magic is supposed to happen. The swell eases to 12ft, but it’s from the same 17-second groundswell, and here’s the kicker: the wind drops to glassy – a dead calm 3 mph from the southwest. Combined energy hits a massive 10392. That’s a powerful, long-period swell hitting a break that’s sheltered from the SW, so it should hold up. It’ll be clean, powerful, and for the experienced crew only. It’s a rare and special window.

Saturday the 12th of September morning still holds a solid 12ft swell with a 16-second period, and a light offshore breeze, keeping it clean, but the wind is a little more cross-off. Still, it’s a solid option if you missed Friday.

So, to sum it up: write off the first 13 days. It’s a long, frustrating gap until Friday the 11th of September, and that’s your best bet. Friday afternoon with that glassy condition is the true standout – for experts only. Saturday morning also looks solid.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Tue morning).

Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
0
0
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
WSW
19
1.3
WSW
18
2.3
WSW
17
2.1
WSW
16
1.9
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.8
SW
13
1.8
SW
12
1.8
SW
13
1.8
SW
14
1.8
SW
15
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.7
WSW
14
1.9
WSW
15
2.5
WSW
15
1.4
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
480
1044
2987
2178
1468
934
700
1018
956
1050
1236
1343
2066
1164
915
1158
1488
2697
799
Wind (km/h)
20
NW
25
NW
15
SW
20
WSW
20
W
20
W
25
W
20
W
15
W
20
WSW
20
WNW
10
WSW
15
N
35
NNW
40
NW
35
NNW
35
NW
30
WSW
30
NW
Wind State
cross
cross
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
Low Tide
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
6:59AM0.19m
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
8:27AM0.18m
8:49PM0.10m
9:07AM0.18m
9:26PM0.06m
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
clear
cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:47
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:41
6:39
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:51
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:53
5:54
 mm
1
1
Temp °C
11
10
12
11
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
13
17
19
18
16
12
12
Feels °C
8
5
9
7
6
7
8
7
8
8
7
10
9
9
11
12
10
6
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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