
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 7 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 9,254 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, grab a coffee and settle in, it's Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.
We're looking at a pretty wild ride, to be honest. The first few days have some clean windows, but the middle of the week looks like a write-off for paddle surfing—more of a kite session. The standout is definitely the Saturday the 15th, with a solid pulse of groundswell and clean conditions. Let's get into it.
The forecast kicks off on Friday the 7th of August, but it's a bit of a dud. We've got a 5.6ft WSW swell with a 15-second period, so there's plenty of energy in the water, but the wind is a cross-on, making it choppy. Not what we're after.
Now, Saturday the 8th is where it gets interesting. The swell drops a touch to 4.9ft, but it's from the WSW with a 16-second period, which is proper groundswell energy. The wind is a cross-off and light, so the waves will be clean. The morning looks better, but the afternoon with a light NNW breeze is also a winner. This is a good time to be out at Cape Paterson, with a clean 4.6ft to 4.9ft swell. Just keep in mind this spot is a beach and reef setup, so it's for advanced surfers only.
Sunday the 9th has a bit of a NE wind, which is offshore, but it's blowing 15 mph in the morning and 19 mph in the afternoon. That's a moderate breeze, and the swell is dropping to 3.6ft, so the energy is fading. It's clean, but the waves are small and the wind is strong. Not the best.
Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th are a write-off. The swell pumps up to 5.9ft on Monday, but the wind is a cross-shore or onshore, blowing 22-25 mph, creating a lumpy, choppy mess. The energy is huge, but it's unsurfable for a paddle board. The same story continues Tuesday with a 6.9ft swell and strong cross-off wind making it clean but wind-affected. It's a no-go.
Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th are big, dangerous, and messy. We're looking at 9.8ft to 13.1ft swells with periods of 15-18 seconds. The energy is extreme. The wind is a fresh cross-onshore, making it lumpy and choppy. This is strictly for the big-wave chargers, but even then, the conditions look too rough. It's more of a strong wind warning than a surf forecast.
Friday the 14th is a bit of a relief, but the swell is still a solid 8.2ft to 9.8ft with a 14-16 second period, and the wind is cross-onshore. The energy is huge, but it's choppy and messy. Not a good day for a paddle.
And then we get to the standout of the forecast period. Saturday the 15th of August. The swell drops to a manageable 7.9ft to 8.2ft, still from the SW with a 16-second period, so it's a proper groundswell with plenty of power. The wind swings around to a light SE breeze, which is cross-off and clean. The waves will be well-shaped, and the long period means long lulls between sets. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The water is about 56.7°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's a nice bonus.
Sunday the 16th continues the good run. The swell drops to 6.2ft, still from the SW with a 14-second period, and the wind is a light cross-off from the E. The energy is moderate, and the waves will be clean. It's a good day to follow up the Saturday session.
Monday the 17th is a bit of a sleeper. The swell is 4.6ft with a 13-second period, and the wind is glassy in the morning—a light NNW breeze of 3 mph. The energy is low, but it's clean and surfable. The afternoon gets a light cross-on, so nothing special.
Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th are similar: 4.3ft to 4.6ft swells with a 14-15 second period, clean with light cross-off winds. The energy is moderate. These are good, small-wave days for a cruise.
The end of the window, from Thursday the 20th to Saturday the 22nd, is a bit of a mixed bag. The swell drops right off to 3.3ft on Thursday, but the wind is clean. Friday the 21st has a 9.8ft swell with a short 7-second period and a lot of energy, but the wind is offshore. The short period means it'll be a bit wonky and won't hold together well
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Mon morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Wed afternoon, moderate winds from the WSW by Thu morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 19 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 19 | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 12 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
1190 | 818 | 1155 | 993 | 796 | 467 | 368 | 641 | 2300 | 1929 | 3887 | 1724 | 999 | 450 | 5843 | 3032 | 8422 | 7738 | 5316 | 3866 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 5:19PM0.76m | 6:25AM0.74m | 6:01PM0.75m | 7:21AM0.73m | 6:49PM0.73m | 8:23AM0.72m | 7:46PM0.71m | 9:32AM0.71m | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:52PM0.05m | 12:12PM0.28m | 00:40AM0.04m | 1:04PM0.31m | 1:35AM0.04m | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | |
5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 11 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 19 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | WSW 18 | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
1190 | 818 | 1155 | 993 | 796 | 467 | 368 | 641 | 2300 | 1929 | 991 | 1724 | 999 | 408 | — | 3032 | — | — | 5316 | 3866 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 7 | SW 18 | — | NW 4 | NW 3 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 20 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 10 | WSW 7 | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
69 | 460 | — | 16 | 3 | 121 | 202 | 520 | 9 | 33 | 10 | 4 | 73 | 450 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 6 | — | — | — | E 8 | ESE 5 | ESE 7 | — | — | — | — | E 10 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
188 | 24 | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 7 | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNE 3 | ENE 4 | N 3 | N 3 | NW 4 | W 4 | WSW 16 | NW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | WSW 18 | W 7 | WSW 12 | WSW 15 | — | — |
35 | — | 6 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 3887 | 32 | 56 | 138 | 5843 | 385 | 8422 | 7738 | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 66 | 5 | 20 | 105 | 443 | 113 | 126 | 140 | 289 | 114 | 426 | 117 | 114 | 41 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











