Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 27 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.8° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 14s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 17s period, WSW swell with 13,713 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 21s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Fri 31st Jul)4.5ft (1.4m) 12s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 3rd Aug)7ft (2.1m) 14s
Most Powerful 7AM (Wed 29th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the menu for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

It's a slow start, but there's some real promise later on. The first few days are a write-off for us, with strong winds and a messy ocean. We're looking at Tuesday the 28th through to Friday the 31st of July as a no-go zone – the wind is just too strong or onshore, and the sea state is ugly. It's not worth paddling out.

Then, Saturday the 1st of August is where it gets interesting. We get a break in the weather. The morning starts clean with a light cross-offshore breeze from the north, and a 3ft swell pushing in from the SW. The real magic happens on the Saturday afternoon, though. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and the swell picks up to 5ft from the SW, but it's a thumping groundswell with a period of 21 seconds. The combined energy is strong at (2025). This is a standout. For the experienced surfer, this is a session to mark on the calendar. The water is around 57°, which is pretty normal for the time of year here.

Sunday the 2nd is a wipeout again with strong winds, but then we get a couple of good windows. Tuesday the 4th of August is looking mint. Both the morning and afternoon sessions are glassy, with 5ft to 6ft swell from the WSW. Clean, smooth, and perfect for a long session.

The next big standout is on Wednesday the 5th of August. The morning is offshore from the NE, light breeze, with a solid 6ft SW groundswell packing a 19-second period. The combined energy is strong (2634). This is another one for the experienced crew. The swell direction is good for the spot, and it'll be clean as a whistle.

After that, the swell starts to ease off through the end of the first week and into the second week. From the 7th to the 9th of August, we're looking at smaller, cleaner waves, but nothing to get too excited about. The wind is mostly cross-offshore, keeping it tidy, but the swell is dropping.

Then, we get a big pulse of swell on the 10th of August, but it's a mess. A strong onshore wind from the south with 10ft to 12ft of WSW swell makes for a lumpy, ugly scene. That's for the kite surfers, not for us.

After that storm passes, the 11th of August cleans up nicely with a cross-offshore ESE wind and a 5ft to 6ft swell. It's a decent way to end the forecast period.

So, to sum it up: the standout sessions are Saturday afternoon, August 1st, and Wednesday morning, August 5th. Both offer excellent, clean conditions for experienced surfers. Don't waste your energy on the first few days.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue night, moderate winds from the WSW by Wed night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the NW by Sun morning).

Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
3
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
SW
13
1.4
WSW
13
1.7
WSW
12
3
W
11
5
WSW
16
4.5
SW
15
3
SW
14
2.3
SW
13
2.2
SW
13
1.6
SW
12
1.4
SW
12
1.3
SW
11
1.1
SW
12
1
SW
11
1.6
SW
18
2
SW
18
1.7
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
668
601
741
2673
13221
9170
3789
1723
1527
772
561
411
373
255
1602
2457
1561
1255
869
Wind (km/h)
35
N
45
NNW
50
NW
55
WNW
50
WSW
40
WSW
30
SW
25
W
25
WSW
10
SW
5
WNW
10
WSW
10
N
10
N
10
NW
20
NNW
35
NW
35
WSW
20
SW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
on
on
on
cross-on
on
on
glassy
on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
High Tide
10:47AM0.64m
9:52PM0.59m
11:47AM0.66m
11:00PM0.59m
12:38PM0.68m
00:05AM0.60m
1:22PM0.71m
1:02AM0.62m
2:00PM0.73m
1:53AM0.64m
2:34PM0.75m
2:40AM0.67m
Low Tide
3:44AM0.18m
4:33PM0.40m
4:43AM0.18m
5:41PM0.39m
5:41AM0.17m
6:40PM0.35m
6:33AM0.16m
7:29PM0.31m
7:21AM0.16m
8:11PM0.27m
8:04AM0.16m
8:48PM0.22m
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
mod rain
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:24
7:22
7:22
7:20
7:20
7:18
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:23
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:27
5:28
 mm
4
8
3
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
Temp °C
13
14
13
10
11
11
11
11
12
11
11
12
11
11
14
11
10
11
11
Feels °C
4
4
3
-3
0
1
3
5
6
7
9
9
10
7
11
5
2
2
5
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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