Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Grab your board, folks—Rusty here. We’ve got a wild 16-day window ahead, with some real gems hidden in the mix, but also plenty of blown-out junk to dodge. Let’s cut through the noise.

The first few days are a tease. Saturday the 12th kicks off with Cape Paterson (Victoria) looking clean and solid. We’ve got a 7ft SW swell with a 16-second period—proper groundswell—and that NNW breeze is doing us favors. Water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so no worries there. The energy is strong (2054), and despite it being an advanced spot, the conditions are excellent. This is your first real window, and honestly, the best of the opening stretch. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so if you can get out early, you’ll have it more to yourself.

Sunday morning still has some life—5ft SW with a 14-second pulse and clean conditions (857 energy)—but it’s smaller and the wind is picking up. By Sunday afternoon, the cross-shore kicks in and it starts getting messy. Monday is a write-off: smaller, choppy, and cross-onshore.

Then comes the mid-week punch. Tuesday the 15th sees a jump in size—8ft to 12ft SW—but it’s raining, blowing 25 mph onshore, and the energy is maxed out (2275 to 4225). This is not for paddling. Honestly, this setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than for a surfboard. Wednesday stays big (10ft) but lumpy and cross-onshore. Not your friend.

Thursday the 17th is marginal at best—7ft SW but onshore, with a bit of chop. Friday the 18th has some size (5ft) but it’s cross-shore and lumpy. The weekend of the 19th and 20th is mostly poor—clean Saturday morning (6ft WSW) but with 22 mph cross-off winds, it’s going to be blown out.

Now, here’s the standout. Tuesday the 22nd. Mark it. Cape Paterson gets an 12ft SW swell with a 17-second period—that is very long-period groundswell, the kind that makes reefs and points sing. Energy is massive (6851). The morning wind is light easterly cross-off, and conditions are clean. This is expert territory—over 8ft—so if you’re not confident, give it a miss. But for the crew who know, this is the pick of the entire forecast. It’s a week away, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

Wednesday the 23rd morning is still good—7ft SW, clean, with lighter winds (1785 energy). That’s a solid backup. After that, the run gets messy again: Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th are blown out with rain and strong onshore winds.

The final stretch, Saturday the 26th, is small and onshore—not worth the paddle. But hold on: Sunday the 27th closes things out with another nice pulse. 8ft SW, 15-second period, light cross-off morning wind, clean (2342 energy). That’s another excellent window for experienced surfers, though the period isn’t as long as Tuesday’s big one.

So, bottom line—two true standouts: Tuesday the 22nd as the heavyweight champion, and Saturday the 12th as the crisp opener. Sunday the 27th is a worthy encore. Everything else in between is mostly blown, lumpy, or too small. Get out there when it’s clean, and respect the size.

Rusty, out.

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