Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 5 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,016 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Friday (Sep 04) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sat 5th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Look, I’ll be straight with you—this stretch at Cape Paterson is a tough one. The next week and a half are mostly a write-off for decent waves. The conditions just aren’t cooperating, with strong cross-onshore winds and choppy, messy surf plaguing most days. The swell energy is moderate to strong—around 1484 to 4250—but it’s all wasted on poor quality.
Saturday 29 August through Monday 31 August: mornings and afternoons are all a mess. The wind is cross-on from the WSW or W at 9–12 mph, and the swell is around 5 to 6 ft from the WSW/SW with a period of 13–14 seconds. The water temperature feels about average for this time of year. Just not worth paddling out.
Tuesday 1 September: a little glimmer. The wind goes cross-off from the NNW at 19–22 mph, so it cleans up nicely. The swell drops to 5 ft from the SW with a long period of 15–16 seconds (groundswell). It’s a marginal day, but with clean conditions, Cape Paterson might offer a few lined-up ones for the advanced crew. Combined energy is moderate (1006–1284).
Wednesday 2 September through Thursday 3 September: the swell builds back up—7 to 8 ft from the WSW (14–15 second period), combined energy jumping to 2010–2534. But the wind swings back onshore or cross, making it choppy or messy. Not your friend.
Friday 4 September and Saturday 5 September: the swell kicks up hard—10 ft from the WSW/SW, energy up to 4250. That’s big, expert-only territory, but the wind is a strong cross or cross-onshore at 19–25 mph. The surf is poor, lumpy, and messy. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
Sunday 6 September and Monday 7 September: the swell drops back to 5–6 ft, but wind remains strong and onshore, with rain showers. More misses.
From Tuesday 8 September onward, it’s a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The swell periods get short (6–8 seconds) or very long (16–17 seconds) but the wind is never right—cross-shore, strong, or onshore. A few cleaner windows pop up on Tuesday 8 September morning (cross-off from NW at 19 mph, 6 ft swell from SSW with a short 6-second period, energy 502), and Sunday 13 September morning (clean cross-off from NW at 16 mph, 8 ft from SW with a long 16-second period, energy 2749). Those are marginal, but the best on offer.
The standout is *Cape Paterson* on Tuesday 1 September—the cleanest window early on, with cross-off wind and a long-period SW groundswell. It’s for the experienced crew, and crowds are possible, so keep your eyes open. The real highlight, if you can wait, is Sunday 13 September morning: a cleaner session with moderate cross-shore wind, 8 ft of SW groundswell (16-second period, moderate wave energy at 2749). That’s the one to circle on the calendar—but it’s two weeks out, so treat it as promising, not guaranteed.
Most of the other days, just leave the board in the car.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 11°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1447 | 934 | 700 | 1034 | 1003 | 1242 | 1438 | 1307 | 2091 | 1267 | 903 | 956 | 2093 | 2207 | 2813 | 3528 | 2967 | 1887 | 1697 | 1885 | 1911 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | 1:58PM0.74m | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | 7:45AM0.18m | 8:13PM0.16m | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | | | |  |  | | |  | | | | | |  | |  |  | |
 | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — |
 | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 7 |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | 1447 | 934 | 700 | 1034 | 1003 | 1242 | 1438 | 1307 | 2091 | 1267 | 903 | 956 | 538 | 1275 | 2813 | — | 2967 | 1887 | 1697 | 1885 | 1911 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | W 24 | WSW 22 | SW 20 | SW 20 | WSW 18 | SW 22 | SW 19 | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 11 | 45 | 99 | 98 | 31 | 18 | 384 | — | — | — | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 5 | SW 5 | SW 6 | — | WSW 13 | SSW 5 | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 14 | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 |
| kJ | 37 | 40 | 102 | — | 507 | 24 | — | — | — | 35 | 40 | 14 | 2093 | 2207 | — | 3528 | — | — | 29 | 36 | 110 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 126 | 52 | 23 | 126 | 52 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 113 | 35 | 41 | 52 | 113 | 113 | 105 | 5 | 105 | 126 | 350 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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