Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 10 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7° C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 10 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,646 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Sat 15th Aug)7ft (2.1m) 15s
Best Surf10AM (Sat 15th Aug)7ft (2.1m) 15s
Most Powerful 1AM (Thu 13th Aug)10ft (3.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Lookin’ at the Cape Paterson stretch for the next couple weeks, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag with a long, frustrating wait up front. The first solid window doesn’t come until the weekend of the 15th. Before that, we’ve got a lot of wind-affected, lumpy-to-messy cross-shore junk and some serious size that’s just not gonna clean up. The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, no major surprises there.

The first call that’s really worth getting out of bed for is Saturday, 15 August, early. We’ve got a clean 7ft swell out of the southwest (15-second period), and a light ESE breeze making for cross-off conditions. That’s a proper groundswell with solid energy (2102 – that’s moderate wave energy) and clean lines. The catch is this is Cape Paterson (Australia), a beach-and-reef setup, and that longer period can make the waves a bit walled at the beach, so you’ll want to hunt the banks. It’s also an advanced break, and at 7ft that’s not for beginners – plenty of punch. Crowds can pop up sometimes, so don’t expect to have it all to yourself.

Sunday the 16th offers a smaller, cleaner option with the swell backing off to 5ft (14-second period). The wind stays cross-off from the east, so it’ll be clean but the energy’s dropped to moderate (1002). A good follow-up session for those who don’t mind a bit less grunt.

Then there’s a real standout hiding in the second week. Saturday, 22 August, afternoon is looking like a gem. The swell is a modest 4ft out of the WSW (14-second period), but the wind goes completely dead – absolutely glassy. Combined energy is still moderate (843). That’s about as clean as it gets for this exposed spot. For a mellow, fun session without getting smashed, that’s your pick. It’s safe for a wider range of surfers at that size.

Before all that, the period from the 11th to the 14th is a write-off: strong onshore and cross-shore winds, messy chop, and on the 13th, the swell jumps to 10ft but with howling cross-winds – that’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not gonna be pretty. The run from the 17th through the 19th is small but clean, with decent conditions but only marginal waves. The real blank run is the first four days: just nothing but poor conditions.

Overall, there are two real standouts: Saturday 15th morning for the best size and quality for experienced surfers, and Saturday 22nd afternoon for the glassy, user-friendly conditions. Everything else is either wind-slapped or just too small to get excited about. The latter part of the second week shows a bit of life again around the 26th, but that’s far out and the confidence is lower. For now, mark your calendar for those two Saturdays.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon night, min 10°C on Tue night). Mainly strong winds.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
4
1
2
2
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
16
1.4
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
14
1.4
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
16
2.5
SW
15
2.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.4
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
1.7
SW
15
1.6
SW
14
1.5
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
3020
785
1193
1048
1401
1194
4646
4161
3598
3128
3808
3301
2624
2102
1910
1237
1002
915
846
Wind (km/h)
35
WSW
30
WNW
30
NW
40
NNW
40
NW
30
W
30
WSW
30
NW
25
WNW
20
WNW
25
WSW
25
WSW
15
SW
10
ESE
15
SSE
15
E
25
E
30
ESE
20
E
Wind State
on
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
9:32AM0.71m
8:55PM0.69m
10:42AM0.72m
10:13PM0.68m
11:47AM0.74m
11:33PM0.69m
12:43PM0.76m
00:44AM0.72m
1:33PM0.78m
1:47AM0.74m
2:17PM0.80m
2:42AM0.76m
Low Tide
2:38AM0.06m
3:16PM0.35m
3:47AM0.07m
4:34PM0.34m
4:57AM0.08m
5:47PM0.29m
6:04AM0.09m
6:50PM0.23m
7:05AM0.10m
7:44PM0.17m
7:58AM0.11m
8:33PM0.12m
rain showers
cloud
cloud
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:09
7:07
7:07
7:05
7:03
7:03
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:36
5:37
5:37
5:38
5:39
5:39
 mm
1
3
4
1
Temp °C
13
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
12
12
12
13
13
14
13
11
Feels °C
7
4
3
2
4
5
6
5
8
8
7
6
7
10
9
10
9
7
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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