Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 30 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 2,602 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 22s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Fri 31st Jul)4.5ft (1.4m) 12s
Best Surf 1AM (Sun 2nd Aug)6ft (1.9m) 17s
Most Powerful10PM (Mon 3rd Aug)8ft (2.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the outlook for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s definitely some light at the end of the tunnel.

We start off with a bit of a dud. Thursday the 30th is a write-off with onshore wind and messy conditions, so we’re skipping that. The first real chance to get wet comes Friday morning, 31st July, at Cape Paterson. The swell is a modest 4ft from the SW, with a cross-offshore breeze that’ll keep it clean. It’s not big, but it’s a start. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus.

The real standout looks to be Saturday afternoon, 1st August. The swell bumps up to 5ft from the SW, and the wind goes glassy. That’s the kind of magic that makes a beach and reef set-up like this one come alive. The wave energy is solid (1488), and with a 18-second period, this is proper groundswell. It’ll have some punch, but the glassy conditions mean it’ll be clean and lined up. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a cracker.

Sunday the 2nd has a similar 5ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-off, so it’s still rideable, just not as perfect. The energy drops off a bit (1373), and the 16-second period still has some grunt. From Monday the 3rd through to Wednesday the 5th, the wind swings onshore and the quality drops. We’ve got a few days of lumpy, choppy surf, so it’s a good time to wait it out.

The next serious shout comes Saturday morning, 8th August. A 4ft WSW swell with a clean offshore wind. The wave energy is moderate (711), and the period is 14 seconds – a solid, clean morning. Sunday the 9th looks similar, with a 4ft swell and a gentle offshore wind. These are good, clean days for a paddle.

There’s a big spike on Tuesday, 11th August, with a massive 15ft swell from the WSW. That’s way too big for this spot – only for the hardcore experts. The combined energy is enormous (9721), and it’s a groundswell, but it’s a beast. If you’re not a pro, stay on the beach.

The best of the second week looks like Wednesday afternoon, 12th August. The swell drops to a manageable 7ft from the WSW, with a gentle offshore breeze. The wave energy is still strong (1473), and the 12-second period means it’ll have shape. It’s a safer bet than the day before, and it’s a solid session.

The final few days, from the 13th to the 14th, are on the smaller side, with clean conditions but fading swell. The 14th has a 3ft swell with a very long 21-second period. That’s a long wait between sets, but the offshore wind keeps it tidy.

Overall, the standout is Saturday afternoon, 1st August, with the glassy conditions and the long-period groundswell. Keep an eye on Wednesday afternoon, 12th August, as a promising but less certain option for the second week.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Mon morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon morning, light winds from the WSW by Tue night).

Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
3
4
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.1
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.6
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
1.2
SW
12
1.1
SW
11
1
SW
12
1.6
SW
18
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.5
WSW
15
1.1
SW
14
2.5
WSW
8
1.5
WSW
13
2.3
WSW
11
2.1
SW
10
1.3
WSW
11
0.6
SW
20
1
WSW
13
0.8
SW
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1521
1147
712
455
383
283
287
1482
2042
1367
1208
974
507
754
768
1338
936
386
306
362
338
Wind (km/h)
20
WSW
25
WSW
15
SW
15
NNW
10
NW
10
NNE
10
N
5
WNW
15
N
20
NNW
20
NW
20
N
30
NNW
35
W
25
W
25
WSW
20
W
15
W
20
NW
20
W
20
NW
Wind State
on
cross-on
on
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
12:38PM0.68m
00:05AM0.60m
1:22PM0.71m
1:02AM0.62m
2:00PM0.73m
1:53AM0.64m
2:34PM0.75m
2:40AM0.67m
3:06PM0.77m
3:24AM0.70m
3:38PM0.77m
4:06AM0.72m
4:09PM0.77m
Low Tide
6:40PM0.35m
6:33AM0.16m
7:29PM0.31m
7:21AM0.16m
8:11PM0.27m
8:04AM0.16m
8:48PM0.22m
8:45AM0.16m
9:23PM0.18m
9:24AM0.17m
9:57PM0.13m
10:03AM0.19m
10:32PM0.10m
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:22
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:25
5:27
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
 mm
1
2
1
3
4
7
2
1
2
1
Temp °C
12
12
11
10
11
12
11
13
12
14
15
12
11
12
11
12
12
12
11
12
12
Feels °C
6
7
7
7
8
10
8
11
8
8
10
7
2
5
5
6
8
9
6
8
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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