Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what Cape Paterson’s got coming for us over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’ve got a lot of wind and messy conditions in the first week, but there’s a real gem hiding in there for the weekend.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing too wild.

We kick off Monday the 7th with rain and a strong SSW wind blowing straight onshore at 35 km/h. The swell’s 8ft from the SW with a short period of 7 seconds. It’s poor, with combined swell energy of (572). Not worth paddling out.

Tuesday the 8th sees the swell drop to 5ft in the morning, period stretching to 13 seconds, but it’s cross-on from the WNW at 15 km/h, leaving it choppy. Energy is up to (1351), but the conditions are marginal at best. Afternoon gets worse with 4ft and a 17-second period, but the cross-on wind picks up to 20 km/h. Still poor.

Wednesday the 9th brings a big jump – 12ft from the SW with a 16-second period, but the wind is howling onshore at 35 km/h. Combined energy hits (7139), but it’s a total mess. Afternoon’s no better – 12ft, 18-second period, wind screaming from the SW at 40 km/h, energy of (8602). This is expert-only territory if you’re even thinking about it, but honestly, it’s blown out. More of a kite surfing day than anything else.

Thursday the 10th holds onto 10ft from the SW with a 17-second period. Morning is cross-on at 20 km/h and choppy, energy of (5019). Afternoon’s still onshore, still poor.

Friday the 11th, the swell drops to 7ft, period 15 seconds, but the wind’s still onshore. Energy’s at (1660). Not great.

Now, Saturday the 12th – this is the standout. The morning has 6ft from the SW with a 16-second period, but the wind is light cross-off from the NNW at just 5 km/h, leaving it clean. Combined swell energy of (1622). Then the afternoon turns glassy with the wind swinging SE at 5 km/h, the swell at 6ft, period 15 seconds, energy of (1323). This is the best on offer, no question. Expect clean, well-shaped waves, and with the long period, the sets will be well-spaced. Cape Paterson’s a beach and reef setup, so the longer period swell should wrap in nicely, though it might be a bit straight for the beach break sections. Still, this is the one to target.

Sunday the 13th, the swell drops to 4ft, period 14 seconds, but the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-off from the NNW. It’s clean but the energy’s down to (679). Poor conditions for the size.

Monday the 14th, we get a messy NW windswell of 6ft with a pathetic 6-second period, and strong cross-shore wind at 45 km/h. Energy’s (612). Total write-off. Afternoon’s worse with 10ft, 8-second period, and a near gale from the W.

The second week stays messy. Tuesday the 15th, 12ft from the SW, 13-second period, but cross-on wind at 25 km/h, energy of (3912). Wednesday the 16th, 8ft, 14-second period, fresh cross-on wind, energy of (2726). Thursday the 17th, 7ft, 13-second period, cross-shore wind, energy of (1444). Friday the 18th, a massive 15ft from the WSW with a 10-second period, but near gale force winds. Energy’s (3951) – expert only and blown out. Saturday the 19th, 6ft, 12-second period, strong cross-shore wind, energy of (1037). Sunday the 20th, 6ft, 14-second period, near gale onshore wind, energy of (1449).

Finally, Monday the 22nd of September morning shapes up nicely. The swell’s 7ft from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, and the wind is light cross-off from the north at 5 km/h. Clean conditions, combined energy of (2709). This is another one to keep an eye on – excellent conditions for experienced surfers, with well-shaped, powerful waves. The long period will work well for the reef and points, just be mindful of the paddle-out between sets.

So, to sum it up: Saturday the 12th is the clear winner, with glassy conditions and a solid SW swell. Monday the 22nd is also promising, but it’s a week and a half away, so don’t lock it in just yet. Everything else is wind-affected or too big for comfort.

Rusty.

Read more