
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,715 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 10AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 7ft (2.1m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Grab your board, folks—Rusty here. We’ve got a wild 16-day window ahead, with some real gems hidden in the mix, but also plenty of blown-out junk to dodge. Let’s cut through the noise.
The first few days are a tease. Saturday the 12th kicks off with Cape Paterson (Victoria) looking clean and solid. We’ve got a 7ft SW swell with a 16-second period—proper groundswell—and that NNW breeze is doing us favors. Water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so no worries there. The energy is strong (2054), and despite it being an advanced spot, the conditions are excellent. This is your first real window, and honestly, the best of the opening stretch. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so if you can get out early, you’ll have it more to yourself.
Sunday morning still has some life—5ft SW with a 14-second pulse and clean conditions (857 energy)—but it’s smaller and the wind is picking up. By Sunday afternoon, the cross-shore kicks in and it starts getting messy. Monday is a write-off: smaller, choppy, and cross-onshore.
Then comes the mid-week punch. Tuesday the 15th sees a jump in size—8ft to 12ft SW—but it’s raining, blowing 25 mph onshore, and the energy is maxed out (2275 to 4225). This is not for paddling. Honestly, this setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than for a surfboard. Wednesday stays big (10ft) but lumpy and cross-onshore. Not your friend.
Thursday the 17th is marginal at best—7ft SW but onshore, with a bit of chop. Friday the 18th has some size (5ft) but it’s cross-shore and lumpy. The weekend of the 19th and 20th is mostly poor—clean Saturday morning (6ft WSW) but with 22 mph cross-off winds, it’s going to be blown out.
Now, here’s the standout. Tuesday the 22nd. Mark it. Cape Paterson gets an 12ft SW swell with a 17-second period—that is very long-period groundswell, the kind that makes reefs and points sing. Energy is massive (6851). The morning wind is light easterly cross-off, and conditions are clean. This is expert territory—over 8ft—so if you’re not confident, give it a miss. But for the crew who know, this is the pick of the entire forecast. It’s a week away, so treat it as promising but not locked in.
Wednesday the 23rd morning is still good—7ft SW, clean, with lighter winds (1785 energy). That’s a solid backup. After that, the run gets messy again: Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th are blown out with rain and strong onshore winds.
The final stretch, Saturday the 26th, is small and onshore—not worth the paddle. But hold on: Sunday the 27th closes things out with another nice pulse. 8ft SW, 15-second period, light cross-off morning wind, clean (2342 energy). That’s another excellent window for experienced surfers, though the period isn’t as long as Tuesday’s big one.
So, bottom line—two true standouts: Tuesday the 22nd as the heavyweight champion, and Saturday the 12th as the crisp opener. Sunday the 27th is a worthy encore. Everything else in between is mostly blown, lumpy, or too small. Get out there when it’s clean, and respect the size.
Rusty, out.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Warm (max 22°C on Sun afternoon, min 12°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sat morning, fresh winds from the WSW by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the W by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 6 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2054 | 1609 | 1103 | 857 | 684 | 568 | 323 | 253 | 131 | 2017 | 4225 | 5400 | 3881 | 3515 | 2117 | 1602 | 1105 | 690 | 701 | 940 | 1531 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | 1:03PM0.74m | 1:37AM0.75m | 1:46PM0.75m | 2:25AM0.78m | 2:25PM0.76m | 3:08AM0.79m | 3:02PM0.76m | 3:48AM0.79m | 3:38PM0.75m | 4:26AM0.77m | 4:12PM0.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:29PM0.19m | 6:52AM0.18m | 7:20PM0.13m | 7:43AM0.18m | 8:04PM0.09m | 8:28AM0.18m | 8:44PM0.06m | 9:08AM0.19m | 9:23PM0.06m | 9:46AM0.21m | 9:59PM0.06m | 10:22AM0.23m | 10:35PM0.08m | ||||||||
6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | |
— | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 16 |
Feels °C | 13 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 16 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
2054 | 1609 | 1103 | 857 | 684 | 568 | 323 | 253 | 109 | 258 | — | — | 3881 | 3515 | 2117 | 1602 | 1105 | 690 | 701 | 940 | 1531 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSE 5 | SW 22 | SW 19 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 36 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 18 | 95 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NNE 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | N 3 | NW 4 | W 4 | WSW 6 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SSE 6 | SSW 6 | — | — | — | NW 4 | WNW 4 | NW 4 |
— | — | 2 | 7 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 131 | 2017 | 4225 | 5400 | 3094 | 43 | 132 | — | — | — | 12 | 10 | 29 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 113 | 117 | 421 | 670 | 244 | 244 | 81 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










