Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 9 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 14 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 5,364 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 14) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Fri 14th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Cape Paterson in feet and Fahrenheit, because that’s how some of you measure it.
First off, don’t get excited too early. The opening few days are a total bust. Sunday afternoon (9 August) has a 3ft SW groundswell with a 13-second period, but a 20 km/h NE wind messes it right up. Water’s about 57°, which is normal for this time of year.
Monday (10 August) is worse. A 6ft SW groundswell gets blasted by a 35 km/h NW wind in the morning, and by the afternoon it’s 7ft of WSW windswell with cross-onshore wind – forget it. Tuesday (11 August) to Friday (14 August) is all crossed-up, lumpy chop and howling winds. Wednesday (12 August) sees a massive 10ft swell but with awful wind – that’s kite-surfing conditions, not paddle surfing.
Now, things start to turn. Saturday (15 August) eases to 7ft SW groundswell with light onshore wind – getting there, but not clean yet. Then Sunday morning, 16 August, is your first real window. We’ve got 5ft of SW groundswell (14-second period) with a light east cross-offshore breeze at 15 km/h – finally, clean conditions. This is the pick of the first week.
Cape Paterson
Sunday morning 16 August is the standout. The swell holds at 5ft from the SW, and that east wind keeps it glassy. The 14-second period means longer lulls between sets, but the waves will have good shape. Expect other surfers to be around, but it’s worth it.
Tuesday morning (18 August) also looks tidy with 5ft WSW swell and a light north-northwest offshore breeze – clean.
For the second week, keep an eye on Wednesday morning, 19 August. We’re looking at 5ft WSW swell (16-second period) and a light east-northeast offshore wind – glassy. This one’s a bit further out, so less certain, but the potential is there.
After that, the swell drops fast. From 20 August onward, we’re down to 3ft to 3ft with weak energy and messy wind. From 22 to 24 August, it’s a run of strong wind and lumpy, poor surf.
So, there’s a big quiet patch at the start, then a couple of clean mornings on the 16th and 19th, then it fades. Get on the 16th if you can – that’s your best chance.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Sun night, strong winds from the NNW by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Thu morning, calm by Sat afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 19 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 589 | 2300 | 2642 | 4136 | 691 | 1176 | 482 | 3237 | 976 | 1506 | 4709 | 4213 | 3556 | 5018 | 3648 | 2750 | 2120 | 1885 | 1672 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | on | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:23AM0.72m | 7:46PM0.71m | 9:32AM0.71m | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | 12:43PM0.76m | 00:44AM0.72m | 1:33PM0.78m | 1:47AM0.74m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:35AM0.04m | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | 6:04AM0.09m | 6:50PM0.23m | 7:05AM0.10m | 7:44PM0.17m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  | | | | |  | | |  | |  | | | |  | |
 | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — |
mm | 18 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 19 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | NNW 5 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | — | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 589 | 2300 | 15 | 9 | 691 | 1176 | 388 | 19 | 976 | 1506 | 4019 | — | 3556 | 5018 | 3648 | 2750 | 2120 | 1885 | 1672 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SE 9 | — | — | SE 10 | SW 14 | SW 17 | NNW 5 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 557 | 22 | — | — | 4 | 507 | 482 | 28 | 637 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SE 10 | E 10 | SE 11 | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 2 | NW 4 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 7 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 1 | 35 | 2642 | 4136 | 330 | 40 | 124 | 3237 | 679 | 961 | 4709 | 4213 | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 26 | 105 | 284 | 117 | 105 | 105 | 227 | 117 | 41 | 54 | 52 | 41 | 23 | 5 | 52 | 35 | 45 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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