Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 31 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 5 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 10,459 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 6 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Sat 5th Sep) | 18ft (5.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s brewing for Cape Paterson.
We’ve got a fairly active stretch of swell ahead, but the winds are going to make it a battle for much of the first week. The standout window where everything comes together is on Sunday the 6th. That afternoon looks magic: a solid 10ft swell from the WSW with a long 15-second period, and it’s glassy. Absolutely glassy. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The combined swell energy is strong at 3526. If you’ve got the chops for it, that’s going to be a session to remember.
Before that, it’s mostly a fight. Tuesday and Wednesday are blown out with strong cross-onshore winds, pushing the swell up to 13ft by Thursday, but it’s just messy and dangerous. Not a paddle. For the kites, though, it could be interesting. Friday the 4th afternoon shows a glimmer – 10ft WSW, 16-second period, with a clean cross-off breeze and moderate combined energy (3773). It’s still a marginal call, but worth a look for the experienced crew.
After that Sunday glass-off, things settle down but never quite reach the same high. Monday the 7th morning has a glassy 5ft WSW swell, but it’s low on energy (630) and pretty small. The following week shows a few clean windows with cross-off winds, like Friday the 11th morning: 10ft WSW, 17-second period, clean, with very strong energy (4931). That’s promising for the second week, but it’s further out, so keep an eye on it. Saturday the 12th morning also has a clean 7ft WSW swell (2015 energy), but the winds get fresh again.
Gaps? Plenty of poor days peppered throughout, especially mid-week, with onshore wind and messy conditions. No real run of consecutive good surf – it’s a pick-and-choose kind of forecast.
Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, sheltered from NE winds, and it handles a SW optimum swell. When the wind goes cross-off or glassy, the break can produce. But with crowd levels sometimes an issue, don’t be surprised if you’ve got company on that Sunday glass-off.
Keep it salty.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Mon night, strong winds from the NW by Wed night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Sat afternoon, calm by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | W 9 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2091 | 1149 | 816 | 481 | 2075 | 2379 | 2951 | 4405 | 5834 | 6312 | 4692 | 3773 | 2348 | 5314 | 10445 | 8309 | 6033 | 3526 | 1411 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | glassy | off |
High Tide | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 |
| kJ | 2091 | 1149 | 816 | 418 | 945 | 2379 | 2951 | — | — | 6312 | 4692 | 3773 | 2348 | — | — | — | 6033 | 3526 | 1411 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 15 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NW 4 | NW 5 | W 9 | WSW 16 | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | — | — | ENE 3 |
| kJ | — | 40 | 68 | 481 | 2075 | — | — | 4405 | 5834 | — | — | 10 | 102 | 5314 | 10445 | 8309 | — | — | 9 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 421 | 119 | 113 | 41 | 5 | 105 | 443 | 114 | 114 | 23 | 113 | 457 | 428 | 429 | 114 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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