Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 8,282 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, I'm Rusty. Look, I've been staring at the charts for Cape Paterson and I gotta be straight with you—this is a tough one. For the next ten days, it's a write-off. The wind is howling out of the west and southwest, and the swell is just getting chewed up. We're talking days of solid, messy, cross-onshore slop. It's not until Monday the 3rd of August that we finally get a look in.
Alright, now for the one true standout. Monday the 3rd of August is the day. The stars finally align. We've got a clean, 8ft SW groundswell with a long 19-second period pushing in, and a light easterly cross-offshore breeze. The water is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. This is for the experienced crew only, as it's over 8ft, but for the boys who know what they're doing, it's going to be firing. The swell direction is a perfect match for the break's optimum from the SW.
Tuesday the 4th of August is still worth a paddle. The swell drops to a clean 6ft from the SW, with a 16-second period and a light cross-offshore breeze from the ENE. It's a bit smaller, but still a quality session after the long lull.
The following week is a fade-out. Thursday the 7th of August morning has a glimmer of hope with a 5ft SW groundswell and a gentle offshore, but the energy is dropping fast.
So, to sum it up: the first week is a total bust. The call is for Monday the 3rd of August. That's your window. It's a big, powerful, clean day for the experienced. Don't sleep on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Thu afternoon). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Mon afternoon, near gales from the WSW by Tue afternoon). | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 10 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | SW 16 | WSW 11 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 5405 | 3399 | 6082 | 1776 | 1893 | 2679 | 1979 | 1462 | 415 | 904 | 922 | 746 | 740 | 859 | 809 | 875 | 1988 | 2216 | 1737 | 1034 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | glassy |
High Tide | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | |  |  | | |  | |  | |  | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — |
 | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — |
mm | 2 | 3 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | — | 5 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 10 | 2 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | WSW 16 | WSW 10 | WSW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 1776 | 696 | 212 | 244 | 350 | 415 | 26 | 922 | 85 | 740 | 859 | 809 | 875 | 763 | 2216 | 1737 | 1034 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | SW 16 | WSW 11 | — | W 11 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 10 | 11 | 34 | — | — | 384 | 340 | — | 449 | 253 | 373 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 12 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 107 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 10 | SW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 7 | WSW 10 | — | WSW 10 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | WSW 11 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 5405 | 3399 | 6082 | 870 | 1893 | 2679 | 1979 | 1462 | 247 | 904 | — | 746 | 4 | 18 | 77 | 128 | 1988 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 117 | 114 | 421 | 117 | 117 | 41 | 114 | 114 | 54 | 52 | 52 | 5 | 23 | 443 | 457 | 117 | 45 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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