Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,562 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Tue 18th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 24th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what’s on the cards for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.
First up, the water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year. Not a massive shift, just a touch on the mild side.
Right, the good news is we’ve got some waves on the way, but the wind is going to be the main character in this story, and it's not always gonna be friendly. The standout window is right at the start. Tuesday morning, August 18th, is your best bet. We've got a clean 4ft swell rolling in from the WSW with a solid 14-second period, and a light NE breeze keeping things tidy. The combined wave energy is moderate at 789, and with that offshore wind, it’s going to be well-shaped. The wind holds for the afternoon too, shifting ESE but staying light and cross-off. Tuesday is the day to get amongst it.
From Wednesday morning, the wind picks up and gets messy. Wednesday through the weekend sees building swell, but it’s blown out by strong cross and cross-onshore winds. By Friday the 21st, the swell is up around 6ft from the WSW, but a moderate cross-shore breeze is chopping it up. The energy is getting stronger (1863 on Friday morning), but the quality just isn't there. This stretch is really for the hardcore crew only, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty. Saturday the 22nd sees a big 10ft swell from the WSW with a very long 16-second period, but with a fresh cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a lumpy mess. The wave energy is very strong at 4562, but this is more of a kite surfing show than a paddle-in session.
We get a bit of a reprieve on Monday the 24th. The morning session looks promising with a clean 5ft SW groundswell (14-second period) and a gentle cross-off breeze. The energy is a solid 1034, and conditions should be good. It’s a solid option if you can get out. After that, the wind gets fluky again.
The real standout, and I mean the one to circle on your calendar, is Monday the 31st of August. The morning is forecast to be glassy, with the wind swinging light from the west at just 3 mph. That’s about as good as it gets. There’s a 5ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, delivering a strong 1233 in wave energy. This is a groundswell, so it’ll have long, clean lines, perfect for the reef. The afternoon gets a bit dicey with an onshore wind, but that morning window is absolute gold.
Into the first few days of September, the swell holds around 5ft to 6ft, but the wind stays onshore or cross-off. Not terrible, but not the standout quality of that Monday morning.
So, to keep it simple: Tuesday the 18th is your immediate go-to for clean, fun waves. But the absolute best on offer is Monday morning the 31st of August – glassy conditions and a solid, long-period swell. Get on it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Tue morning, fresh winds from the N by Wed morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the W by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
701 | 589 | 229 | 257 | 232 | 268 | 416 | 917 | 1586 | 1018 | 846 | 3037 | 2014 | 4562 | 2963 | 1997 | 1773 | 1571 | 1016 | 721 | 437 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:35PM0.80m | 4:16AM0.77m | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:57PM0.06m | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | ||||||||
7:01 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | |
— | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 15 | WSW 11 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | — | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
701 | 589 | 229 | 257 | 232 | 268 | 273 | 917 | 1158 | 409 | 586 | 3037 | 2014 | — | 2963 | 1997 | 1773 | 1571 | 1016 | 721 | 437 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 17 | — | WSW 20 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | SW 18 | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 |
88 | — | 127 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 128 | 138 | — | 253 | 419 | — | — | — | — | 80 | 112 | — | 18 | 15 | 50 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 6 | — | — | — | — | SE 7 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | — | SW 19 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
10 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 128 | 116 | — | 183 | 439 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 6 | SE 2 | ENE 3 | N 3 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | W 9 | NNW 4 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | WSW 8 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 |
31 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 41 | 416 | 21 | 1586 | 1018 | 846 | — | 650 | 4562 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 38 | 5 | 23 | 113 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 113 | 35 | 113 | 54 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











