
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, SW swell with 5,568 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, it's Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this outlook for the Cape Paterson area is a bit of a mixed bag. We're looking at a solid 16-day window, but the first week is a real write-off with some serious wind and lumpy conditions. The best swell is on the way, but you'll need patience and a sharp eye on the wind.
The first few days are a bust. We've got a strong SW groundswell coming in on Saturday the 25th, with a combined energy of 2665, pumping in at 10 feet and 12 seconds, but it's getting hammered by a fresh cross-onshore breeze. It's just poor, messy, and not worth a paddle. That nasty wind hangs around through Sunday and Monday, with the swell dropping but the quality staying poor. You'll be waiting.
Monday morning the 27th is the first real glimmer. The wind swings to a clean cross-offshore from the NNW, and we've got a 4-foot, 11-second SW swell with a combined energy of 430. The score is marginal, but it’s clean. It's not a standout, but it's the first breathable air of the week.
Then the wind turns nasty again Tuesday and Wednesday, with a massive 10-foot to 12-foot, short-period swell on Tuesday afternoon that's just messy and dangerous. That's for experts only, and even then, the wind is a problem. The surf is poor.
The real standout, the one you've been waiting for, is Monday the 3rd of August. The morning is looking clean with a 7-foot, 15-second SW groundswell, but the true magic is the afternoon. We've got a light offshore breeze from the NE, with the swell holding at 7 feet and 15 seconds. The combined energy is a solid 1797, and the conditions are described as "clean." This is a genuine, high-quality window. The wave period is long, so it'll be a proper groundswell, with more energy and longer gaps between sets – perfect for a point break style setup. This is the best on offer, no contest.
The following week has some promise, but it's less certain. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th have clean, cross-offshore winds with smaller 4-foot to 5-foot, 13-14 second SW swells, but the energy is lower. Thursday the 6th brings a surprise: an 8-foot, 8-second SSE swell in the morning with clean light winds. The energy is 1314, but the short period will make it a bit walled-up and tricky. It's a very different beast to the SW groundswell.
After that, it all gets a bit messy again with strong winds and dropping swell, until the very end of the outlook. Sunday the 9th of August has a tiny 3-foot, 13-second SW swell with a light offshore breeze, which is clean but small. It's a way off, so keep an eye on it.
So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The standout is Monday afternoon the 3rd of August. That's your best bet. The rest is a waiting game with a few smaller, cleaner windows in the second week. Stay patient, and don't force it.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon night, min 10°C on Tue afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 10 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | W 12 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
1883 | 2453 | 1946 | 1304 | 814 | 674 | 504 | 375 | 450 | 658 | 2084 | 1258 | 2385 | 4480 | 2630 | 1299 | 828 | 637 | 397 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | |||||||
— | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | |
mm | 5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | — | — | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 |
557 | 212 | 209 | 320 | 814 | 674 | 504 | 375 | 450 | 658 | — | — | 424 | 4480 | 2630 | 1299 | 828 | 637 | 397 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | W 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 26 | SSW 6 |
— | — | — | 172 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 55 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 22 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 25 | SW 24 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 22 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 10 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | W 12 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | W 4 | — |
1883 | 2453 | 1946 | 1304 | — | — | — | 5 | 11 | 95 | 2084 | 1258 | 2385 | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 117 | 54 | 114 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 120 | 142 | 227 | 820 | 81 | 126 | 45 | 5 | 52 | 41 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










