Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 1 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 5 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 12s period, WSW swell with 8,130 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 6 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 6ft (1.9m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 6ft (1.9m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sat 5th Sep) | 18ft (5.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here, givin' it to you straight from the coast.
This is a tough one to look at, to be honest. We've got a heap of swell on the way, but the wind gods are just not playin' nice for most of the run. Cape Paterson is a sheltered spot, so it can handle some swell, but the cross-onshore and onshore breezes are going to ruin a lot of the ride. We're lookin' at a big stretch of nothing much until the start of the second week, so don't go cancelling your plans just yet.
Right off the bat, Tuesday the 1st through the entire first week, the wind is just howling from the west. Swell is plenty big, with moderate to very strong wave energy (over 1100 on the Thursday), but it’s all blown out, messy, and lumpy. Thursday the 3rd is a write-off with 12ft to 13ft windslop. The weekend of the 5th and 6th is even worse with near-gale winds. You’d be a loony to paddle out, and honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
Now, the light finally starts to show on Monday the 7th. The swell drops right off, but glassy mornings and a light offshore N/NE wind look like our first real window. The morning of Monday the 7th shows a smaller 4ft SW swell, but with light cross-offshore winds, it might just be the quiet session you need. However, the real standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Sunday the 13th.
We get a full day of glassy conditions with a consistent 4ft WSW groundswell. The wind is dead calm, glassy as a mirror. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year—not a shock to the system. The swell period is 14 seconds, a nice groundswell that will hold up well for a beach-and-reef like Cape Paterson, though it might be a bit straight for the beach breaks. The wave energy is modest (around 730 in the AM), but with zero wind, it's the cleanest we’ll see all outlook.
The following day, Monday the 14th, also has potential. The morning looks unreal with a 6ft SW groundswell at 16 seconds and a clean offshore NNE breeze at 15 mph. That’s a proper long-period groundswell, which means power and long lulls between sets. It’s clean, but 6ft is a good jump in size. The wave energy is also moderate (1875). This could be the best day for a decent wave if you can get out on the paddle.
For the rest of the second week, the wind turns back onshore and crappy again, so don't get your hopes up after Monday. It’s a classic winter pattern: huge swell, nasty wind, then a short, sweet window of glass followed by the next front moving in. The Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th mornings are the picks.
That's the picture from here. Keep your eyes on the sky and your wax on.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Warm (max 20°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the W by Thu morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Sat morning, calm by Mon morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
816 | 418 | 2479 | 2271 | 2412 | 4690 | 5211 | 5224 | 5235 | 4410 | 3118 | 5006 | 8130 | 3890 | 2799 | 1614 | 771 | 378 | 341 | 357 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | |||||||
— | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | |
5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | |
mm | — | 6 | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 8 |
Temp °C | 20 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
Feels °C | 12 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 |
816 | 418 | 1115 | 2271 | 2412 | — | — | — | 5235 | 4410 | 3118 | — | — | — | 2799 | 1614 | 771 | 378 | 341 | 357 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 20 |
38 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 81 | 52 | 21 | 71 | 315 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | ESE 3 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | — | 1 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 5 | W 9 | WSW 16 | — | NW 5 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | NW 4 | — | NNW 4 | WSW 15 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | NW 4 | — | NE 3 | — | ESE 3 | E 3 |
60 | 348 | 2479 | — | 40 | 4690 | 5211 | 5224 | 16 | — | 37 | 5006 | 8130 | 3890 | 3 | — | 5 | — | 3 | 4 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 142 | 117 | 114 | 41 | 5 | 113 | 429 | 117 | 113 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 493 | 421 | 52 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











