Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 03 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Sep 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 8,772 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful10PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for Cape Paterson is a rough one for the paddle surfer. The first week is pretty much a write-off, and even the second week only offers a couple of fleeting moments that might be worth a look if you’re desperate. The wind is the main villain here; it’s just relentless. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won’t be feeling it with all that wind.

We’ve got a gap of nearly a week before there’s anything even worth mentioning. The first real chance to get a board wet doesn’t come until Friday, the 11th of September. That morning, the wind drops to nothing – glassy conditions – and we’ve got a 5ft swell rolling in from the SW with a period of 15 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell with some serious energy behind it (1091). The wave energy is moderate, but the clean conditions make it the standout of the whole outlook. The break here is a beach and reef setup, and it’s an advanced wave, so only experts should be paddling out. It’s fairly consistent here, and crowds are possible, so keep an eye out. The only downside is that a long-period swell like this can break a bit straight on a beach, but with the reef, it might just hold its shape.

After that, things get messy again. The following Thursday, the 17th of September, the afternoon shows another window of glassy conditions, with a 5ft SW swell, period of 12 seconds, and moderate energy (782). It’s not as powerful as the earlier swell, but it’s clean. That’s about it. The rest of the period is plagued by brutal cross-onshore winds, often gale-force, creating poor, messy surf. The combined energy is often through the roof (over 4000 in some cases), but it’s useless for a paddle surfer – you’d be better off looking at this for a kite session. For a 16-day outlook, this is a grim run. It’s a shame because the potential is there, but the wind just won’t let up. Hang in there, and keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Fri afternoon, near gales from the NW by Sat morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon night, fresh winds from the SSW by Tue night).

Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
WSW
14
4
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
4
WSW
9
3.5
WSW
9
2.4
SW
12
2.1
SW
12
1.6
SW
12
2.1
WSW
6
3
SW
8
2.3
SW
9
1.7
SW
12
1.3
SW
17
1.7
WSW
16
2.2
SW
15
3
SW
21
3.5
SW
19
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
4553
5668
5594
4963
4213
3158
2014
2667
1827
1573
1305
718
261
1350
816
817
951
1356
2150
8075
7625
Wind (km/h)
40
W
40
W
30
WNW
25
NW
20
WNW
25
N
50
NW
40
WNW
40
W
20
W
20
WSW
15
W
15
W
20
SW
15
SW
15
W
20
WSW
35
SSW
30
SSW
30
SW
20
SSW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
High Tide
3:41PM0.78m
4:32AM0.80m
4:18PM0.78m
5:16AM0.79m
4:57PM0.77m
6:05AM0.77m
5:41PM0.75m
6:58AM0.73m
6:32PM0.72m
7:59AM0.70m
7:34PM0.69m
9:07AM0.69m
8:50PM0.66m
Low Tide
10:04PM0.03m
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
11:08AM0.24m
11:30PM0.02m
11:54AM0.27m
00:19AM0.04m
12:45PM0.30m
1:15AM0.07m
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
3:00PM0.33m
3:32AM0.15m
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
mod rain
rain showers
thunderstorm
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:37
6:35
6:35
6:33
6:31
6:30
6:28
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:55
5:57
5:58
5:59
6:00
6:00
6:00
 mm
2
7
8
2
1
2
Temp °C
12
12
12
13
14
14
14
13
12
13
13
11
12
13
11
10
11
11
11
11
10
Feels °C
4
3
5
6
9
7
4
5
4
9
8
7
9
9
7
6
6
5
4
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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