Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s heading our way. It’s a strange start—lots of swell, but for the first few days, the conditions are just plain ugly. We’ve got a big, powerful SW groundswell pumping through, but the wind is howling straight onshore, and the water is getting churned up like a washing machine. You won’t want to be out there on Wednesday the 9th or Thursday the 10th; it’s a write-off.

Friday the 11th is still pretty marginal. The swell is dropping a bit, but the wind is still on it, making things messy. Honestly, it’s not worth the drive just yet.

Now, *Saturday the 12th morning* is where things get interesting. The wind swings around to a light offshore from the NNW, and we’ve got a clean 7ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period. Combined wave energy is sitting at 1909 (moderate), but the quality will be high. For Cape Paterson, a sheltered beach and reef setup, this is the standout. It’s an advanced wave, and with that kind of period, it’ll be lining up nicely on the reef, but the beach breaks might get a bit straight. Crowds can sometimes pop up here when it’s this clean. Water temperature is pretty normal for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Sunday the 13th drops off fast. The swell backs right down to 4ft by the afternoon, and while the wind stays cross-offshore, the energy is weak (657). Not much to report.

There is a big, long gap with no good surf through the entire second half of September. The wind stays messy, the swell gets all sorts of directions and periods, but nothing aligns for clean conditions. There’s a big pulse on the 19th and 20th, but it’s either cross-onshore and choppy, or the swell gets too big—over 16ft on the 20th afternoon—which is way too heavy for anyone but experts, and the break is too sheltered to handle it well. That setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Look ahead to Monday morning the 21st – we’ve got another solid 10ft SW groundswell with an 18-second period, combined energy at 5667 (strong), and clean cross-offshore winds from the NW. This is the second standout. It’s a big, powerful groundswell, so the point and reef setups at Cape Paterson will handle it best. But it’s a long-range call, so don’t lock it in yet. After that, the wind gets nasty again, with a near gale on the 22nd blowing it all out. The window is small, but if you nail Saturday the 12th morning or Monday the 21st morning, you’ll score.

Rusty

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