Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 18 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.8° C
0.6° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 25 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 23 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 13s period, SW swell with 3,555 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 13s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sat 18th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 13s
Best Surf 7AM (Sat 25th Jul)5.5ft (1.7m) 13s
Most Powerful 4PM (Thu 23rd Jul)10ft (3.0m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Hey gang, Rusty here. Cape Paterson’s 16-day outlook is a tough one – lots of nasty wind and lumpy swell through the first week and a half. But there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s worth waiting for.

First up, Sunday the 19th gives you a small clean wave: 3.6ft SW swell at 13 seconds, light north wind, cross-off. Combined energy is moderate (466). Water temp is 56.8°, pretty normal. It’s surfable but nothing to write home about. Crowds are possible.

Then it gets ugly. From Monday the 20th through Thursday the 24th, wind from the NW and WSW at 15–22 mph, with swell building to 9.8ft and short period (8–14 seconds). Combined energy runs from 880 to 3894 – strong to very strong. But with onshore wind and chop, it’s more of a kite session than a paddle session. Friday the 24th is particularly nasty: 9.8ft, 14-second swell, fresh cross-onshore wind, lumpy.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are marginal: swell drops to 7.5ft then 5.2ft, but wind stays strong cross-shore, creating chop

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Mainly fresh winds.

Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
1.1
WSW
13
1
WSW
12
0.8
WSW
12
1.1
WSW
16
0.7
SW
15
0.8
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1.9
W
7
2.5
WSW
8
3
SW
11
3
SW
13
3
SW
13
2.5
SW
14
2.2
SW
14
2
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1210
1018
722
402
283
161
627
229
268
982
824
534
341
848
1735
3201
3555
2886
1945
1559
1133
Wind (km/h)
10
NW
5
W
10
NNE
10
N
5
N
15
NNW
25
NW
20
NW
20
NW
20
NNW
20
NNW
30
NNW
35
NW
30
W
35
SW
30
SW
25
SW
20
WSW
20
WNW
20
W
10
WNW
Wind State
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
2:43PM0.83m
2:53AM0.75m
3:26PM0.83m
3:48AM0.75m
4:06PM0.82m
4:39AM0.74m
4:44PM0.80m
5:28AM0.72m
5:21PM0.76m
6:14AM0.70m
5:57PM0.73m
7:01AM0.68m
6:33PM0.69m
Low Tide
8:55PM0.15m
9:03AM0.08m
9:43PM0.11m
9:51AM0.13m
10:28PM0.09m
10:36AM0.17m
11:11PM0.08m
11:19AM0.22m
11:51PM0.09m
12:01PM0.27m
00:31AM0.11m
12:43PM0.31m
1:13AM0.13m
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:31
7:30
7:28
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:17
5:19
5:20
5:21
 mm
1
4
3
1
Temp °C
10
11
11
12
14
14
12
14
12
12
14
12
12
12
10
11
11
11
10
12
11
Feels °C
8
9
9
9
11
11
6
9
7
7
9
6
5
6
2
4
4
5
5
7
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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