Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 9,335 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next two and a half weeks are a real mixed bag for Cape Paterson. There’s a rough patch of poor conditions to start, but we’ve got a couple of absolute crackers hiding in there for those with patience.
The first few days are pretty much a write-off. Saturday the 5th kicks off with a 7ft SW swell but that NNW wind at 28 mph makes it a write-off. Sunday the 6th is pushing 10ft SW swell – onshore and messy. Monday the 7th drops to 3ft – still onshore rubbish. You’re looking at a solid four-day gap of no good surf until Tuesday the 8th, and even then it’s only marginal with 5ft SW swell and cross-shore wind. Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are blown out again with heavy onshore winds and huge swell up to 12ft – that’s expert-only territory and only if you’re keen on a battle.
Friday the 11th stays marginal with 8ft SW swell and gentle cross-onshore. But then we hit the standouts.
Saturday the 12th morning is the pick of the whole outlook. You’ve got a clean 8ft SW swell with a very long 18-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy, and it’s glassy, with wind from the west at just 3 mph. This is a reef-and-beach setup so that period will give it real power and shape. It’s advanced-only at this size, but for those who can handle it, it’ll be magic. The combined energy is strong at 3366 – you’ll feel the pulse. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so get in early.
Sunday the 13th morning is another beauty. Swell drops a touch to 7ft SW, still 15-second period, and we’ve got light offshore wind from the NE at 6 mph. Clean. Combined energy is 1801 – moderate to strong. Not quite as powerful as Saturday but cleaner faces and still a solid session. This one’s more approachable for strong intermediates.
Monday the 14th drops to 4ft SW – fun for a grovel session but nothing special. Tuesday the 15th is tiny at 2ft. From there it fades into small, mixed conditions through to the end of the window, with a brief uptick on Friday the 18th with 5ft–5ft SW swell but fresh cross-off wind keeping it average. The final weekend, the 19th, shows 3ft to 5ft SW with clean conditions and light winds – okay for a longboard or a fish but nothing to write home about.
Water temp is about average for this time of year.
So here’s the call: lock in Saturday the 12th morning for the biggest, cleanest swell, and Sunday the 13th morning for the next best. Everything else is either marginal or flat. Get out there when it’s good.
– Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Mon afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Sat night, light winds from the SSW by Mon afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 7°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 11 | SW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3158 | 1987 | 1567 | 4675 | 1135 | 1415 | 1474 | 265 | 451 | 919 | 723 | 874 | 1552 | 2676 | 9335 | 8016 | 5794 | 4261 | 3211 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | | |  | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
mm | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 3158 | 1987 | 1567 | — | 1135 | 1415 | 25 | 265 | 451 | 919 | 723 | 604 | 1552 | 2676 | — | 8016 | 5794 | 4261 | 3211 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | SSW 6 | — | SW 15 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 336 | 100 | — | 55 | 71 | 312 | 635 | 874 | — | 233 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 44 | 248 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | NNW 6 | WNW 6 | WSW 11 | SSW 8 | — | WSW 12 | SW 7 | SSW 6 | SW 6 | — | — | WSW 5 | SW 8 | SW 19 | SSW 7 | — | SW 5 | SSW 6 |
| kJ | 16 | 164 | 240 | 4675 | 452 | — | 1474 | 230 | 90 | 77 | — | — | 111 | 774 | 9335 | 154 | — | 39 | 41 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 38 | 364 | 429 | 244 | 81 | 45 | 117 | 285 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 117 | 552 | 1459 | 81 | 117 | 346 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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