Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's comin' down the line for our local stretch.

Overall, it's a real mixed bag. The next week and a half is largely about waitin' out some pretty ordinary conditions. The beginning is grim, then there's a brief window of a smaller, cleaner wave, but it comes with some serious caveats. The best bet in the entire 16-day window actually pops up towards the end of the forecast, but I'll keep you posted.

Starting off from the 20th of August through to the 22nd, honestly, just don't bother. We've got a building swell, with the swell energy hitting a massive 5097 on the Saturday (22nd August), but every session is plagued by strong, lumpy cross-onshore winds. Swell heights from just under 3 ft up to a powerful 12 ft, but it's all blown-out, messy, and the swell period is in that long, groundswell territory (13-16 seconds), which is great in theory, but not when the wind is ruining it. This is a clear "surfboard stays in the car" situation.

There’s a little shift on the 23rd of August (Sunday). The swell drops back to 8 ft from the SW, with a 14-second period. The winds are still cross, but lighter. The energy is still moderate at 2164. It’s rated as marginal, so not great, but it's the best we've seen all week. By Monday morning the 24th of August, we finally get some clean conditions. The wind goes cross-offshore from the NNW at 16 mph, making for clean faces on a 5 ft SW swell (1002 wave energy). It's still rated as "marginal," but if you're desperate, that's the pick for the week.

Things get messy again from the 25th to the 29th of August. The wind is all over the place, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell bounces between 4 ft and 7 ft. The bigger days get the lumpiest winds. Throughout this whole period, most surf is just "poor" or "marginal."

Then, on Monday the 31st of August, things get interesting. We have conditions that are called "good surf conditions." The wind goes light and cross-offshore (N at 3 mph), creating clean conditions. The swell is 6 ft from the WSW with a short 10-second period. This period is fairly short, so the waves will be a bit more sectiony, but for paddle surfing, it means more consistent waves without those long, waiting gaps. The energy is moderate at 850. This is a genuine standout. If you're an advanced surfer, the morning of the 2nd of September is another shout. It's clean with an 8 ft swell from the W, though the period is a short 7 seconds, meaning it'll be a bit of a choppy, dumpy close-out at the beach. The energy is still moderate (937).

The true standout of the whole run, however, is the 3rd of September. On Thursday morning, we get another pocket of clean conditions with a cross-offshore wind from the NNW at 19 mph. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the WSW with a proper groundswell period of 14 seconds. The combined energy hits a strong 3112. That's a legitimate swell. The wind will be holding the faces open and clean. For an advanced surfer, that Thursday morning is the absolute target. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it, but that’s the one that stands out.

To break it down for you:

- Best overall day: Thursday 3rd September morning. 8 ft SW groundswell, clean offshore wind. It'll be big with lots of power (3112), so this is for experienced crew only.
- Second best (if you want a paddle): Monday 31st August morning. 6 ft West swell, clean wind. Safer size, more manageable.
- The rest: Rough and not worth it. The early days (20th-22nd) are a total write-off.

Signin' off, Rusty.

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