
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 12 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 13s period, WSW swell with 5,364 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 8 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Wed 8th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Sun 12th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's shaping up down at Cape Paterson. This is a sheltered spot that only works on a SW swell, so we gotta be picky. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.
We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. The early part of the window looks pretty good, but then it gets wild and messy for a while before calming down again later on. Let's get into it.
The real standout is Wednesday, July 8th. Cape Paterson is absolutely firing. You’ve got a clean 5ft SW groundswell with a super long 19-second period pushing in. That’s serious energy (1938). Wednesday morning with a light offshore ENE breeze at 6 mph is going to be glassy perfection. Expect very clean surf, but that long period will prefer the reef and points over the beach. This is the one to aim for.
Through the rest of that first week, Thursday morning the 9th looks good too, with a smaller 5ft SW swell and light cross-offshore winds, but it won't have the same punch as Wednesday. Friday the 10th holds consistent 5ft WSW groundswell with clean conditions, so there are a few solid days on offer.
Now, we hit a rough patch from Saturday the 11th through to Tuesday the 15th of July. The swell actually gets big—we're talking over 8ft, up to 13ft on Sunday—but it arrives with howling onshore and cross-shore winds. It’s going to be a blown-out mess. The energy readings are massive (5364 on Sunday), but it’s all for nought unless you’re an expert with a death wish. For the average surfer, this stretch is a write-off, and the setup looks more like a kite-surfing zone than a paddling one.
Things start to tidy up again down the track. Thursday, July 16th morning has a nice clean 7ft WSW swell and a light offshore NNE breeze. It’s a promising return to form after the windy spell.
Further out, Friday, July 17th morning is another one to circle on the calendar. It’s showing a solid 8ft WSW groundswell, a 17-second period, and clean conditions with a cross-offshore breeze. That’s a lot of power (3339) and looks excellent for experienced surfers. Remember this one is a week and a half away, so it’s a promising possibility rather than a certainty.
Into the third week, the surf drops off significantly. From Sunday the 19th onward, the swell fades under 5ft and the winds turn more onshore, so we’re looking at a stretch of poor conditions to wrap up the outlook.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the N on Fri night, near gales from the NW by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tue 14 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
795 | 1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1014 | 711 | 602 | 357 | 1133 | 5364 | 3662 | 3409 | 4836 | 4258 | 4323 | 2986 | 3116 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross |
High Tide | 5:05AM0.68m | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:00PM0.17m | 11:00AM0.21m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | |||||||
— | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | |
— | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 6 | — | 2 | 3 | — | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 10 | — | SW 22 | SW 20 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 |
795 | 1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1014 | 711 | 602 | 357 | 1133 | — | 20 | 100 | 4836 | 4258 | 4323 | 2986 | 3116 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | WSW 14 | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | SE 11 | SW 20 | ESE 5 | — | — | — | WNW 5 | W 8 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | — | — | — |
5 | 553 | 24 | 29 | 5 | 134 | 4 | — | — | — | 8 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | 136 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 24 | ESE 11 | — | — | — | SE 10 | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | E 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
22 | 24 | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 6 | NW 5 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | — | WSW 16 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | NW 5 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 12 | 61 | 214 | 87 | 5364 | 3662 | 3409 | — | 4007 | 13 | 58 | 49 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 227 | 114 | 142 | 429 | 142 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 113 | 52 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











