
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 10 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 7,879 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 10 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1PM (Fri 10th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Fri 10th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s the outlook for Cape Paterson, starting now.
The forecast opens on Friday, 10 July with solid surf, but it quickly turns into a wild, windy mess for days on end. We’ve got a big run of blown-out, overpowered swell from the 12th to the 14th, followed by a slow clean-up that finally delivers a couple of sweet windows next week.
The standout session is Friday morning, 10 July at Cape Paterson. The water’s sitting at 58°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. We’ve got clean 5ft swell from the WSW with a 15-second period, light cross-off breeze from the north at 6 mph, and only moderate wave energy (1069). It’s pumping but not too heavy—advanced crew will love it. Waves will have that long-period power, so expect some proper lines, especially with the sheltered SW exposure. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so you might have company.
Friday afternoon goes glassy with 5ft SW swell, period still 15 seconds, and calm winds. Clean, but the energy drops a bit (967). Still a very nice session.
Saturday, 11 July is a write-off. Morning’s 4ft with a 12 mph north breeze giving it a cross-off chop, then afternoon jumps to 25 mph north wind—howling, with only 3ft leftover. Don’t bother.
Sunday, 12 July through to Tuesday, 14 July is ugly. Swell jumps to 13ft to 15ft with strong to very strong energy (4941 to 5710) but the wind is a screaming 28–31 mph from the NW and W. Heavy cross-shore and cross-onshore conditions, messy and dangerous. This is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.
Wednesday, 15 July sees the swell drop to 10ft (SW, 14 seconds), but still a cross-on breeze from the WNW at 9–12 mph. Choppy, lumpy, only marginal. Not worth it.
Thursday, 16 July morning is a beauty. 5ft SW swell, 14-second period, light NW cross-off breeze at 6 mph, and moderate energy (1047). Clean, solid, and well-shaped. This is the second standout. Afternoon gets a light onshore from the SSW, so it’s only marginal.
Friday, 17 July morning is another good one. 6ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, light NNW cross-off at 6 mph, and moderate energy (1571). That’s groundswell at its finest—long lines, heaps of push. Afternoon fades a bit with a light cross-shore.
Saturday, 18 July stays clean with 5ft WSW swell, 14-second period, and gentle north breeze in the morning. Good, not great.
From Sunday, 19 July onward, the surf drops off hard. Swell stays under 4ft, and the wind is howling—25 mph from the NNW on Monday, 20 July, and then a mix of onshore and cross-shore through to the end of the forecast. The few clean windows are all blown out by strong winds or too small. A long gap from 19 July to the end with no real recommendations.
No real standouts in the second week—just a few clean but small windows that get trashed by wind. Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, hit Friday morning the 10th or Thursday morning the 16th.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, near gales from the NW by Sun morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Mon night, light winds from the WNW by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1069 | 967 | 752 | 561 | 419 | 983 | 4941 | 5710 | 5014 | 5406 | 5292 | 7879 | 5374 | 4372 | 4431 | 3261 | 2229 | 1438 | 1002 | 890 | 877 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | on | off |
High Tide | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | ||||||||
7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | |
— | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 1 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | — | — | WSW 15 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
1069 | 967 | 752 | 561 | 419 | 281 | — | — | — | 3562 | 5292 | — | — | 4372 | — | 3261 | 2229 | 1438 | 1002 | 890 | 877 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SE 8 | W 8 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 22 | SW 20 | SW 18 |
— | — | — | 3 | 33 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 45 | 98 | 516 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | E 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | N 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | W 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | NW 6 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | — | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 5 | 20 | 50 | 983 | 4941 | 5710 | 5014 | 5406 | 138 | 7879 | 5374 | — | 4431 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 120 | 466 | 114 | 443 | 227 | 227 | 117 | 114 | 117 | 81 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










