Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Issued: 3 am 04 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
14.5° C

1.1°C warmer than normal for this time of year

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 6 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 4,043 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 10PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Mon 6th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 16s
Best Surf 4AM (Mon 6th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 16s
Most Powerful 7AM (Sun 5th Jul)8ft (2.5m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, Rusty here, let's have a look at what Cape Paterson has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, the next few days are a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a big, chunky SW groundswell rolling in, but the wind is howling from the WSW and SW at 19 mph, absolutely trashing the surface. Saturday morning is looking at a solid 10 ft swell but with 19 mph onshore wind, it’s going to be a messy, blown-out scene. The combined energy is pumping at 2866 – there’s plenty of grunt in the water – but the conditions are poor. That’s a no-go for a paddle board. If you’ve got a kite, maybe, but for us surfers, it’s a wait-and-see.

We have a bit of a lull Sunday and Monday as that big swell drops. Sunday the 5th has some solid 8 ft SW groundswell, but it’s still cross-offshore with a moderate breeze. The tide might be a factor, it’s marginal at best.

The real window opens up Wednesday the 8th of July. We see a 5 ft SW groundswell with a very long 18-second period. The wind is a clean 9 mph cross-off from the ENE, and the combined energy is a healthy 1773. This is a standout for well-shaped waves. That long period will wrap nicely around the reef setup here, giving us some proper lines. Expect clean faces and less crowd competition.

From there, the surf settles into a steady rhythm of waist-to-chest high SSW to WSW swell through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with light cross-offshore winds keeping things tidy. Not epic, but clean and surfable. The water temp is 58°, which is actually a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice bonus.

Then we hit a wall of chaos. Monday the 13th of July the wind goes nuclear – a 25 mph cross-shore from the NW, and the swell bumps up to a massive 15 ft. That is huge, with a combined energy of 8429. The conditions will be atrocious, with strong cross-chop. That is expert-only territory if it’s even rideable, which it likely won’t be. That trend of wild, blown-out, and dangerous conditions continues through Tuesday and Wednesday the 15th. The surf is big but the quality is awful.

The light at the end of the tunnel arrives on Thursday the 16th of July. The morning looks *glass*. As in, no wind at all, just a calm, clean 6 ft SW groundswell. The energy is still solid at 1314, and with a 15-second period, those waves will have real push. This is a fantastic window for a morning session. The break will be clean and lined up. That is the standout of the whole outlook, it’s just a week and a half away.

After that, the surf settles back into small, clean conditions through the final days of the forecast. Again, not pumping, but perfect for a fun, uncrowded paddle on the longboard.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Sun afternoon). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Sat morning, calm by Mon morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
3
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
3
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
SW
13
2.5
SW
13
2.5
SW
15
2.5
SW
17
2.2
SW
17
1.8
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
14
0.9
SW
14
1.2
SW
17
1.3
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.4
SW
18
2
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.3
SW
15
1.5
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.4
WSW
15
1.3
WSW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2866
2248
3040
3770
2630
1513
757
513
308
851
823
881
1228
2402
1591
838
685
1187
955
851
638
Wind (km/h)
30
WSW
30
SW
20
S
20
ESE
25
E
20
ENE
10
NNE
5
SSW
10
NNE
10
NNW
5
SW
10
NE
15
ENE
20
E
15
ENE
15
ENE
15
E
15
ENE
10
N
5
SSE
15
NNE
Wind State
on
on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
on
cross-off
cross-off
on
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
3:03PM0.76m
2:53AM0.64m
3:36PM0.77m
3:36AM0.65m
4:07PM0.77m
4:20AM0.66m
4:39PM0.76m
5:05AM0.68m
5:11PM0.75m
5:53AM0.69m
5:47PM0.74m
6:46AM0.71m
6:27PM0.73m
Low Tide
9:14PM0.26m
9:02AM0.14m
9:51PM0.23m
9:40AM0.16m
10:25PM0.20m
10:19AM0.18m
11:00PM0.17m
11:00AM0.21m
11:37PM0.13m
11:44AM0.24m
00:19AM0.10m
12:34PM0.28m
1:06AM0.07m
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:35
7:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:07
5:07
5:07
5:08
5:08
5:09
5:10
 mm
Temp °C
12
12
11
11
10
10
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
13
11
11
12
11
10
11
11
Feels °C
5
5
5
6
4
5
9
10
9
9
11
10
7
8
7
7
8
7
8
9
7
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
SW
15
2.5
SW
17
2.2
SW
17
1.8
SW
16
1.3
SW
15
1.1
SW
14
0.9
SW
14
1.2
SW
17
1.3
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.4
SW
18
2
SW
18
1.8
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.3
SW
15
1.5
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.4
WSW
15
1.3
WSW
14
Energy kJ
3040
3770
2630
1513
757
513
308
851
823
881
1228
2402
1591
838
685
1187
955
851
638
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
SE
5
0.3
SE
4
0.2
WSW
19
0.2
ESE
8
0.2
ESE
12
1.2
WSW
14
0.2
ESE
12
0.1
SE
11
0.1
SE
10
0.2
ESE
10
0.1
SE
12
0.3
SE
11
0.2
ESE
10
Energy kJ
6
3
37
6
13
545
14
5
4
9
6
19
11
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
ESE
4
0.2
ESE
11
0.2
WSW
20
0.1
SE
9
0.2
ESE
4
Energy kJ
1
12
40
3
2
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
SW
13
2.5
SW
13
1.6
SSW
7
0.8
SE
4
0.9
ESE
5
0.4
NE
3
0.4
ESE
3
0.5
E
3
0.5
E
3
0.4
ENE
4
0.4
N
3
Energy kJ
2866
2248
216
21
37
2
3
5
6
5
2
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
5
2
3
5
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
Distance (km)
113
421
421
44
66
49
5
20
5
5
45
5
5
20
5
5
20
5
5
5
5
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
2
2
2
2
3
1
2
4
4
3
3
2
3
3
3
2
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
5
5
6
5
9
7
4
4
8
7
4
4
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
6
5
9
7
5
6
8
7
4
5
9
8
9
6
5
5
8
5
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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