Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 13 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,524 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, and Cape Paterson is looking at a tough run for the next week or so. The surf is gonna be junked out for the most part.
For the first many days, it's a no-go. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (797) and the wind is just all wrong. We'll see a pulse of bigger swell from the 15th through the 17th, with energy ramping up (1209, 4041), but it's all going to be blown out by onshore winds. The water's sitting around 57°F, which is a touch warmer than normal.
There is one golden window. On Monday, September 21st, the morning is looking epic. A 10-foot WSW swell with a 13-second period – that's real groundswell. The combined energy is strong at 2940. Wind is a light NNW at 3 mph, giving us clean, glassy conditions. This is expert territory only at that size. Just keep in mind, with that long period, the beach break might be a bit straight, but the points and reefs will handle it nicely.
Your second best bet is the morning of Wednesday, September 23rd. We've got a 6-foot SW groundswell (14-second period) with a light ENE breeze at 3 mph. Another clean cross-off, with moderate energy at 1512. Smaller, but still very good.
After that, we're back into a cycle of strong winds and poor quality for the rest of the outlook. It's a frustrating stretch, but hang tight for that 21st. Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Warm (max 20°C on Sun night, min 10°C on Tue morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Sun night, strong winds from the WSW by Tue morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Fri night, light winds from the WNW by Sat afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 6 | WSW 8 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | W 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 489 | 318 | 257 | 164 | 1121 | 4577 | 5087 | 3999 | 3444 | 2830 | 1752 | 1311 | 711 | 1005 | 1591 | 1109 | 893 | 784 | 1471 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:37AM0.75m | 1:46PM0.75m | 2:25AM0.78m | 2:25PM0.76m | 3:08AM0.79m | 3:02PM0.76m | 3:48AM0.79m | 3:38PM0.75m | 4:26AM0.77m | 4:12PM0.73m | 5:03AM0.74m | 4:45PM0.71m | |||||||
Low Tide | 7:43AM0.18m | 8:04PM0.09m | 8:28AM0.18m | 8:44PM0.06m | 9:08AM0.19m | 9:23PM0.06m | 9:46AM0.21m | 9:59PM0.06m | 10:22AM0.23m | 10:35PM0.08m | 10:57AM0.26m | 11:11PM0.11m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  | |  | | | |  |  |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — |
 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 20 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 23 | 19 |
Feels °C | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 18 |
| kJ | 489 | 318 | 257 | 79 | 198 | — | 2006 | 3999 | 3444 | 2830 | 1752 | 1311 | 711 | 1005 | 1591 | 1109 | 893 | 784 | 32 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 20 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | — | — | SW 22 | SW 18 | — | — | — | SW 20 | — |
| kJ | — | 15 | 36 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | 112 | — | — | 19 | 447 | — | — | — | 16 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | W 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | WNW 3 | WSW 6 | WSW 6 | WSW 8 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SSW 5 | SW 5 | SW 6 | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | W 12 |
| kJ | 6 | 6 | 34 | 164 | 1121 | 4577 | 5087 | 3018 | 2821 | — | 49 | 43 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 52 | 65 | 1471 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 54 | 126 | 443 | 639 | 244 | 285 | 81 | 45 | 114 | 126 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 105 | 76 | 5 | 105 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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