Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 23 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 11s period, WSW swell with 6,187 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Thu 23rd Jul) | 16ft (5.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, Rusty here, running through the Cape Paterson (Cape-Patterson) surf for the next couple of weeks.
Alright, it's a bit of a mixed bag, with a whole lot of wind and messy conditions to deal with, especially in the second half of the run. The water temp is about 57°, which is average for the time of year, so nothing crazy there.
The first real chance to score a good one is on Friday morning, the 17th of July. We've got a solid 6ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period. That's proper energy (1694 combined energy for the morning) and the wind is a clean, cross-off from the NNW. This is the standout window of the whole forecast. The tide could be a factor at this sheltered beach and reef, but if you can find the right bank, the shape from that long period will be real nice. The wave heights are in the sweet spot for advanced crew, not too big, not too small. With the wind being clean, this is the best offer on the table.
Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th still have some swell, but it's dropping and the wind goes more cross-shore, bringing in little ripples. The energy drops off (down to 510 on Sunday morning), so it's a bit more of a cruisy, smaller option.
Then we hit a real rough patch. From around Monday the 20th, the wind picks up, and from the 23rd of July it gets nasty. We're looking at strong onshore gales, some real rain, and a huge, messy swell. Check out the 24th of July – 12ft of SW groundswell with a massive 4567 combined energy, but it's blowing 25 mph onshore. That's just a washing machine. For the advanced surfers, the 27th of July has a monster 12ft SW swell with an 18-second period and 6535 energy, but again, the wind is a fresh cross-onshore. It's going to be ugly and dangerous. Honestly, for a couple of weeks there, this setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.
The end of the run, around the 30th and 31st of July, the swell calms down. It's back to 4ft to 5ft, with clean cross-off winds on the 31st, but the energy is low (639 combined energy). It's a glimmer of hope, but nothing to get excited about compared to the Friday the 17th window.
So, to wrap it up: your best bet is Friday morning, the 17th of July. Get in the water early. After that, it's a long, windy, and messy wait until the very end of the month.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NNW by Wed morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thu 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1994 | 1695 | 1694 | 1737 | 1415 | 1210 | 1018 | 679 | 454 | 333 | 250 | 261 | 242 | 557 | 499 | 476 | 745 | 458 | 347 | 325 | 857 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 00:49AM0.73m | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | 3:26PM0.83m | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | 8:55PM0.15m | 9:03AM0.08m | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | |||||||
 |  |  | | |  | | | | |  | | | | | | | | |  |  | |
 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 |
 | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | 5:20 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 6 |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 0 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — |
| kJ | 1994 | 1695 | 1694 | 1737 | 1415 | 1210 | 1018 | 679 | 454 | 333 | 250 | 193 | 242 | 557 | 499 | 476 | 745 | 458 | 347 | 325 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 11 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SW 16 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 30 | 154 | 261 | 229 | 4 | 4 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | SW 20 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SE 11 | — | — | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 40 | 60 | 22 | 10 | 5 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 8 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 38 | 857 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 23 | 113 | 141 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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