
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 4,881 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, grab your wettie and let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks down at Cape Paterson. I won’t sugarcoat it – for the most part, the ocean’s gonna have a bit of a mood on it. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds, and the surf quality is going to suffer for it. There’s plenty of size at times, but it’s going to be messy and lumpy, not the kind of clean lines we chase.
To start things off, this Tuesday the 15th, we’ve got the swell pushing 12ft, but it’s a SW swell with a 45 km/h onshore wind. The energy in the water is strong, with a combined value of 2033. It’s going to be a wild, blown-out mess. Not worth the drive unless you’re keen to wrestle some chop. That trend sticks with us through the rest of the week and into the weekend – solid swell, but the wind just won’t give us a break. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s not freezing, but it’s still booties weather.
Thursday the 17th brings a bit of relief in the swell size, dropping to around 6ft, but the cross-on wind keeps it choppy. Friday the 18th is a tease – the swell is 6ft with a longer 16-second period, and the energy is moderate at 1715. But the cross-shore wind just messes it all up, making it lumpy. It’s a “maybe if you’re desperate” kind of day. The weekend is more of the same, with strong breezes and messy conditions. Sunday the 20th does have a moment with a clean cross-off wind in the morning, but the swell is down to 4ft, and it's weak – only an energy of 820. Still, it’s the closest we get to a decent wave all weekend, just don’t expect much power.
Monday the 21st, we’re back to onshore winds and a solid 7ft of SW swell, but it’s not going to be pretty. The next real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday the 22nd. The swell holds at 8ft, with a long 16-second period, and the energy is strong at 3096. The wind is light, but it’s still cross-shore, which leaves it a bit rippled. There’s a window there where it could be alright, but it’s not the clean one we’re after.
Now, here’s where things start to turn. Wednesday the 23rd, we finally get our standout. The wind goes light and cross-off in the morning, and the 5ft SW swell is clean. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and that makes all the difference. This is your best bet of the whole run. The energy is moderate at 1140, but the clean conditions will make it feel better than it looks. Get out there early.
Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th keep the good vibes going, with light offshore and cross-off winds. The swell is down to around 4ft – 4ft, but it’s clean. The energy is weak, down in the 400-500 range, so it’s small and gutless, but it’s surfable. For the beginner or the longboarder, this is your window. It’s small but clean, and the crowd might be a bit of a factor as word gets out.
Then, just as we get a taste, it gets taken away. Saturday the 26th, a strong breeze from the NW ramps up the chop, and the swell jumps back to 7ft with a big 18-second period. The energy is strong at 2690, but the wind just kills it. Sunday the 27th is more of the same – messy, cross-onshore and a solid 8ft on the sets. It’s going to be a washing machine out there.
The final stretch, from Monday the 28th into Wednesday the 30th, is a story of fading swell and persistent cross-shore winds. Monday the 28th has a 7ft SW swell, but the wind is light, so it’s only fairly choppy. It’s still not great. The energy drops off from there, and by Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re looking at 4ft – 4ft of weak, flat swell with fresh cross-shore winds. It’s a bit of a nothing end to the run.
So, for the pick of the fortnight, it’s Wednesday the 23rd at Cape Paterson (Cape-Patterson). It’s not the biggest, but it’s the cleanest. Get on it early before the tide and the afternoon sea breeze mess with it. The swell direction is SW, and the light offshore wind will have it looking glassy. That’s your day.
Otherwise, the rest is a grind. There’s plenty of water moving, but the wind is going to be against us for most of it. Keep an eye on the charts, but don’t hold your breath.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Sat night, strong winds from the NNW by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
4881 | 3695 | 3286 | 2686 | 1468 | 1034 | 924 | 1034 | 1571 | 1321 | 1622 | 1631 | 874 | 504 | 1159 | 1382 | 1278 | 1293 | 1564 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 3:08AM0.79m | 3:02PM0.76m | 3:48AM0.79m | 3:38PM0.75m | 4:26AM0.77m | 4:12PM0.73m | 5:03AM0.74m | 4:45PM0.71m | 5:41AM0.71m | 5:20PM0.68m | 6:22AM0.68m | 5:57PM0.65m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:08AM0.19m | 9:23PM0.06m | 9:46AM0.21m | 9:59PM0.06m | 10:22AM0.23m | 10:35PM0.08m | 10:57AM0.26m | 11:11PM0.11m | 11:33AM0.29m | 11:49PM0.14m | 12:12PM0.32m | 00:30AM0.18m | |||||||
— | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | |
— | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 23 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | NNW 5 | — | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 14 |
— | 3695 | 3286 | 2686 | 1468 | 1034 | 924 | 1034 | 1571 | 1321 | 1622 | 1631 | 874 | 504 | 19 | — | 1278 | 1293 | 1564 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | — | NNW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 12 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | 516 | — | — | — | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 618 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SSE 6 | — | SW 6 | SSW 6 | SW 6 | SW 6 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 5 | — | — | NW 5 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | — | — |
4881 | 58 | — | 102 | 49 | 77 | 112 | 10 | 12 | 66 | 92 | — | — | 91 | 1159 | 1382 | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 244 | 285 | 81 | 81 | 114 | 52 | 23 | 23 | 35 | 421 | 114 | 39 | 5 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 81 | 81 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










