Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 23 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
14.0° C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 30 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 7,743 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 30 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 13s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Thu 30th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 13s
Best Surf 1AM (Thu 30th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 13s
Most Powerful 4AM (Fri 24th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, let’s break down what’s on offer for Cape Paterson. It’s a bit of a waiting game, but there’s a beauty of a window setting up for the more experienced surfers.

We’re looking at a pretty rough start. From Thursday the 23rd right through to the end of July, the wind is just relentless. We’ve got strong breezes swinging from the WSW and W, hammering the coast with a cross-onshore mess. The swell is there, picking up to a thumping 10 ft on the Friday, with a solid 14 to 15 second period, but the energy readings are huge (over 5000) – it’s just not surfable. This is a patch that’s going to be more interesting for the kite crew than for paddle surfing. The water’s sitting at 57.2°, which is about average for the time of year, so nothing weird there.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Thursday the 30th. The morning session is a standout. The wind drops to glassy – a dead 3 mph from the east – and the swell is a clean 5.2 ft from the SW with a 12-second period. The energy is moderate (865), but those conditions will make it feel like a different spot. It’s the first time we’ll see a clean face, and it’s a good one for the advanced crew. The afternoon gets a bit messy with a southerly cross-on, so get it while it’s good.

After that, we get a few more clean mornings – the 31st and the 1st of August – but the swell drops right off to around 3.3 ft, and the energy fades (526 to 709). It’s clean, but small. A bit of a lull.

Now, the real highlight of the whole 16-day window is Monday the 3rd of August. This is the one to circle on the calendar. We’ve got a proper 10 ft SW groundswell with a very long 18-second period. The combined energy is massive (4802), but the wind is what makes it. Light northerlies in the morning, then glassy by the afternoon. For a reef and beach setup like Cape Paterson, that long period will mean some proper, powerful lines. It’s a session for the experts, though – at 10 ft, it’s not a beginner’s wave. The following Tuesday and Wednesday offer a nice clean drop-off, with the swell easing to a more manageable 5.6 ft and 3.6 ft respectively, still with clean glassy conditions.

So, the play is: hold out for the morning of the 30th for a clean, fun session, and then lock in the 3rd of August for the big one. The days in between are mostly cross-off and small, but it’s not a complete write-off.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 11°C on Thu morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Thu night, moderate winds from the W by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Tue afternoon). Mainly strong winds.

Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
14
4
SW
9
3.5
SW
15
2
SW
15
3
WSW
10
3
WSW
12
3
WSW
12
2.4
WSW
11
1.4
SW
11
2.1
WSW
11
1.9
WSW
10
1.8
WSW
10
1.8
WSW
11
1.7
WSW
12
1.7
WSW
12
1.4
WSW
12
4
WSW
9
2.5
SW
10
2.3
SW
14
2
SW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
3924
5405
3054
6082
1647
1902
2725
2113
1413
462
974
755
717
705
835
808
541
2684
1565
1858
1246
Wind (km/h)
35
WSW
45
WSW
45
WSW
35
W
40
W
35
WNW
35
WSW
30
W
25
W
25
WNW
25
NW
25
NW
25
NNW
30
NNW
40
NNW
40
NW
40
W
30
SW
25
S
20
SSE
10
E
Wind State
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
5:57PM0.73m
7:01AM0.68m
6:33PM0.69m
7:50AM0.65m
7:12PM0.66m
8:44AM0.64m
7:56PM0.63m
9:44AM0.63m
8:50PM0.61m
10:47AM0.64m
9:52PM0.59m
11:47AM0.66m
11:00PM0.59m
Low Tide
12:01PM0.27m
00:31AM0.11m
12:43PM0.31m
1:13AM0.13m
1:29PM0.35m
1:57AM0.16m
2:21PM0.38m
2:48AM0.17m
3:23PM0.40m
3:44AM0.18m
4:33PM0.40m
4:43AM0.18m
5:41PM0.39m
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
light rain
cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:24
7:24
7:24
7:22
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:22
5:23
5:24
 mm
2
2
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
3
2
Temp °C
11
11
11
11
12
13
12
13
12
12
13
12
13
15
13
12
12
10
10
10
9
Feels °C
2
1
0
2
3
6
5
7
6
7
8
8
7
8
5
5
3
1
3
4
4
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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