
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 7,098 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 9 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 09) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 6s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Sun 9th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s headin’ our way.
The next couple of weeks are a rollercoaster. There’s swell a-plenty, but the wind is gonna be the boss for the first week, and sometimes it’s a real jerk. We got a small window early, then a big, messy pulse, and finally a clean-up around the 15th and into the next week.
First chance to paddle out is Saturday afternoon, August 8 at Cape Paterson (Cape-Patterson). The water’s about 57°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year – a nice little bonus. You’ll get a solid 5ft of groundswell from the WSW, with a long 16-second period. That’s proper energy, with a combined energy of 1121. The wind is light from the north, so it’s a clean cross-off breeze. It’s a standout for the early days, but it’s a sheltered spot and can get crowded.
Sunday, August 9 is a good follow-up. We’re lookin’ at a 4ft WSW swell, droppin’ to 3ft in the arvo, with a moderate offshore from the ENE and NE. Clean, but the swell is easing. Still a decent morning sesh.
Then things blow up. Monday, August 10 through Thursday, August 13 sees a massive jump in size, but the wind turns nasty. You’re lookin’ at 6ft to 12ft of SW to WSW swell, with cross-shore and cross-onshore winds hittin’ 22 to 28 mph. The combined energy is huge – 2332, 5659, 8965 – but it’s just a mess. With a beach and reef setup, that much wind and swell is more for the kite surfers than paddle surfers. This is a straight-up miss.
Friday, August 14 stays big and cross-onshore, still messy.
But hold on. Saturday, August 15 is the real standout. The morning is still a bit iffy with 8ft of SW swell and a light cross-onshore, but the Saturday afternoon is the gold. The wind drops to 3 mph from the SSW, and it goes glassy. The swell is a solid 7ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is 2089. This is excellent for experienced surfers – clean, powerful lines. If you’re good enough, this is the best session of the whole run.
Sunday, August 16 and Monday, August 17 are still in the mix, with 6ft to 5ft of SW swell and clean cross-off winds from the east. Energy is moderate, but it’s surfable and clean.
Tuesday, August 18 is a bit of a letdown, with smaller 4ft swell and a light cross-off, but it’s clean. Wednesday, August 19 is another good one – 5ft of WSW groundswell (16-second period), clean cross-off from the NNW, and a combined energy of 1257. That’s a solid, fun day.
The rest of the run into the 23rd has some small, clean windows and a few bigger pulses, but nothin’ that screams “drop everything.” The Sunday afternoon, August 23 has a 7ft WSW swell with a very long 19-second period, and nearly glassy conditions, but it’s a bit of a cross-shore. That long period groundswell will be best on the points and reefs, not the beach.
So, the two true standouts: Saturday afternoon, August 15 for the glassy, powerful 7ft SW swell, and Wednesday, August 19 for the clean, consistent 5ft groundswell. The rest? You’ll get waves, but you’ll be workin’ for ’em.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 26mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the W by Mon night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Tue night, moderate winds from the WNW by Thu night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 8 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 9 | WSW 10 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
1112 | 785 | 501 | 368 | 557 | 2300 | 1929 | 2917 | 770 | 573 | 350 | 1014 | 1400 | 3406 | 5659 | 5674 | 4390 | 4543 | 3921 | 3081 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 6:01PM0.75m | 7:21AM0.73m | 6:49PM0.73m | 8:23AM0.72m | 7:46PM0.71m | 9:32AM0.71m | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | 12:43PM0.76m | 00:44AM0.72m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:40AM0.04m | 1:04PM0.31m | 1:35AM0.04m | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | 6:04AM0.09m | 6:50PM0.23m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | |
5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 16 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 13 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 19 | SW 17 | ESE 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 15 |
1112 | 785 | 501 | 368 | 499 | 2300 | 1929 | 9 | 691 | 315 | 290 | 1014 | 636 | — | — | — | 4390 | 4422 | — | 3081 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 20 | SE 8 | SE 10 | — | SE 10 | SW 14 | SW 17 | WSW 10 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
4 | 7 | 121 | 202 | 557 | 32 | 24 | — | 4 | 573 | 350 | 154 | 650 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NNW 4 | SE 4 | NNW 4 | — | ESE 10 | — | — | SW 19 | WSW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 52 | — | — | 125 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NE 3 | ENE 3 | E 3 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | SW 16 | WSW 8 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WNW 6 | WSW 9 | WSW 10 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — |
5 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 2917 | 770 | 25 | 122 | 296 | 1400 | 3406 | 5659 | 5674 | — | 4543 | 3921 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 20 | 105 | 120 | 346 | 113 | 119 | 227 | 114 | 421 | 117 | 114 | 54 | 5 | 41 | 126 | 54 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











