Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Cape Paterson has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with ya – it’s a bit of a slow burn to start, and the first few days are pretty grim, but there’s some serious potential lurking in the second week if you’ve got the patience.

The water temp is sitting right around 56°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Right, the first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Thursday the 4th of September. The swell is hanging around 10 ft from the SW, with a solid 15-second groundswell period. The combined energy is strong at 3819. Problem is, the wind is howling from the NNW at 16 mph as a cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean but the southerly swell is going to be grabbing that wind and making it a bit tricky. It’s more of a "maybe" session for the experienced crew, but the potential is there if you pick your bank.

The real standout, the one I’m genuinely looking forward to, lands on Thursday the 10th of September morning. This is the pick of the bunch, no question. We’ve got a solid 13 ft SW swell rolling in with a 16-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is a massive 7600, so it’s packing a serious punch. But the real magic is the wind: glassy, from the WSW at only 3 mph. That means clean, perfect conditions. Look, 13 ft is big – this is for expert surfers only. The swell is coming from the WSW, and the optimum direction for this spot is SW, so it’s not a perfect match, but when it’s that size and that clean, you find a way. The long period will make it heave up nicely, but at a beach and reef like Cape Paterson, those long-period groundswells can sometimes race through a bit, so keep that in mind. Crowds are possible here, so get down early.

If that’s too big, there’s another chance on Friday the 11th of September morning. The swell drops back to 10 ft from the SW, still with a long 15-second period (3603 combined energy). The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the NNW at 9 mph. It’s a solid step down in size, but still serious wave and still clean. A good backup if Thursday’s monster is a bit much.

Now, looking further out, there’s a massive spike on Monday the 14th of September morning. We’re looking at a 16 ft SW swell, but with a shorter 12-second period and the wind from the N at 9 mph. The combined energy is off the charts at 8143. The forecast notes say the swell is predicted to be too big for this break, and they’re not wrong – 16 ft is huge and the short period means it could be a washing machine. Only for the absolute lunatics out there.

Before that, there are a few "marginal" sessions scattered around. The afternoon of Sunday the 6th of September has 7 ft at 13 seconds with light WSW wind, but it’s cross-onshore so it won't be pretty. Tuesday the 8th of September afternoon could be a sneaky one: a 10 ft SW swell with a 17-second period and a 4707 energy rating, with light onshore wind. The long period is a big plus for shape, but the wind angle isn't ideal.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a write-off. If you’ve got the skills, Thursday the 10th of September is your day – glassy, big, and powerful. Friday the 11th is the next best bet for a clean, serious session. Everything else is a bit of a gamble or just plain messy.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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