Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 11s period, WSW swell with 2,153 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Tue 4th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s break this down for Cape Paterson in feet and Fahrenheit.
The first few days are nothing to write home about. Friday 31st July has a 4ft SW swell, but the wind is side-on and the energy is moderate (544). The water is around 57°, which is a bit warmer than the usual average for this time of year, but nothing wild. It’s a so-so session. Saturday morning 1st August turns it around with a N wind, glassy conditions, and a clean 3ft SW swell. The energy is still moderate (546), but the clean conditions make it better. Then Saturday afternoon is the real highlight: 5ft SW groundswell with a 18-second period, glassy flat, and strong wave energy (1471). This is the best of the whole outlook. The long period means the waves will have shape and power, but it’s over 5ft, so it’s not for beginners. The wind is perfect, and the swell is coming right out of the SW, which is exactly what this spot wants. Don’t miss this.
Sunday morning 2nd August still has a 5ft SW swell, but the wind is up to 12 mph from the N, so it’s clean but a bit breezy. The energy is still strong (1390), but it’s not as good as Saturday arvo. Then the rest of the week is a mess. Monday and Tuesday have strong winds, rain, and choppy conditions. The swell is there, but the wind ruins it. From Wednesday 5th August through to the end of the week, the swell drops off and the wind stays poor. There’s a big gap of nothing worthwhile until the following Friday.
Friday 7th August morning brings a solid 4ft WSW groundswell with a 15-second period, light offshore cross-off wind, and very good conditions. The energy is strong (1325). This is a promising session, but it’s a week out, so it’s not a sure thing. The arvo goes glassy with 3ft long-period swell (18 seconds), but it’s small. Still, if the wind stays calm, it’ll be a fun glassy session.
The weekend after that (8th-9th August) gets windy again—N winds up to 25 mph. The swell is consistent, but the wind ruins it. Monday 10th August sees a big jump to 12ft W swell, but with a 25 mph NNW cross-off wind, it’s expert-only. The energy is extreme (4863). Tuesday 11th August is even bigger and wilder, with 13ft WSW swell and 31 mph winds. This is kite-surfing territory, not for paddle surfing. The whole of that week (10th-15th August) has large, powerful swell, but the wind is mostly strong and side. The very last session on Saturday 15th August afternoon is worth noting: 8ft WSW groundswell at 15 seconds, glassy with a SSW wind, and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The energy is massive (3121). If you’re an expert and can wait, that’s a cracker, but it’s two weeks out, so don’t count on it.
So, the real standout is Saturday 1st August afternoon. Clean, glassy, 5ft SW groundswell with that lovely long period. After that, the next best hope is Friday 7th August morning, but it’s a week away and less certain. The second week is mostly too big and windy, except that glassy Saturday arvo on the 15th for the experts.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Mon morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 28mm), heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon night, min 10°C on Mon afternoon). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Mon afternoon, light winds from the SW by Wed night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | WSW 11 | SW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 383 | 283 | 292 | 1465 | 1915 | 1384 | 1224 | 987 | 521 | 1027 | 727 | 1626 | 1278 | 713 | 214 | 357 | 380 | 255 | 198 | 686 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | off |
High Tide | 1:02AM0.62m | 2:00PM0.73m | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:29PM0.31m | 7:21AM0.16m | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | |||||||
 |  | | | | | |  |  |  | |  | | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — |
 | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 13 | — | SW 12 | SW 21 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 383 | 283 | 292 | 1465 | 1915 | 1384 | 1224 | 987 | 521 | 1027 | 599 | — | 244 | 111 | 214 | 357 | 380 | 255 | 166 | 686 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | WSW 20 | SW 17 | — | SW 18 | — | — | SW 21 | SSW 6 | SSW 5 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 11 |
| kJ | 62 | 96 | 249 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 75 | 302 | — | 50 | — | — | 111 | 45 | 24 | 154 | 127 | 198 | 101 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | WSW 11 | SE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SSW 4 | SSW 8 | SW 20 | — |
| kJ | 99 | 12 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | 65 | — | — | — | — | 8 | 188 | 227 | 7 | 6 | 97 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | W 6 | W 6 | WSW 8 | WSW 11 | SW 12 | SW 11 | — | — | — | — | S 3 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 10 | 14 | 19 | 29 | 333 | 132 | 727 | 1626 | 1278 | 713 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 141 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 81 | 105 | 5 | 43 | 5 | 35 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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