Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s be straight with you – the next sixteen days around Cape Paterson are a real mixed bag, and honestly, there’s no standout, must-paddle session on the cards. The swell kicks around plenty, but wind and conditions just keep throwing wrenches in the works. The first recommendation doesn’t even roll around until Thursday the 10th of September, so you’re looking at a quiet start.

Wednesday the 9th is a write-off. Strong southerly winds, poor surf conditions, and a messy 4ft SW swell with a combined energy of 5249 – moderate energy, sure, but the wind state is terrible. Thursday the 10th isn’t much better. You’ve got a solid 10ft SW groundswell (16-second period) on the morning, but it’s blowing onshore at 12 mph and the conditions are marginal, with combined energy at 4182. Afternoon stays lumpy and cross-onshore. Not worth rushing in for.

Friday the 11th sees the swell ease to 6ft SW, still long-period at 15 seconds, but the wind stays cross-onshore or straight on. Combined energy drops to 1563. Still marginal. Saturday the 12th is the first time you get a slight glimmer – morning has a light cross-shore breeze, with a 7ft SW swell and combined energy of 2028. It’s still tagged as marginal, and the period is 16 seconds, so it might wrap a bit too straight for a beach-and-reef setup. Light crowd pressure possible here. But if you’re keen, that morning session is the best on offer early on.

Sunday the 13th cleans right up with offshore NNW winds, but the swell drops to 5ft (combined energy 869). Clean but small. Monday the 14th is a write-off again with fresh winds and lumpy cross-chop. Tuesday the 15th sees another spike – 10ft SW at 12 seconds, combined energy 2442 – but the report says poor surf conditions. That’s a lot of swell for nothing if the wind is on it. That kind of size (over 8ft) is only for experts anyway.

Wednesday the 16th is another one to circle. Morning has a light cross-shore breeze, 8ft SW swell, 14-second period, combined energy 2161. It’s marginal but the light wind could give you some workable walls. Afternoon gets cross-onshore again. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are mostly cross-shore with moderate breeze, small to moderate swells (6–6ft), and combined energy around 1200–1500. Not inspiring.

The following week, from Sunday the 20th, there’s another pulse – 12ft WSW on the morning, but it’s short-period at 9 seconds, combined energy 2055, and while it’s clean with offshore winds, that short period won’t give much shape. Monday the 21st is more big swell (10ft) with 15–18-second periods and strong onshore winds – poor conditions. Tuesday the 22nd improves a bit with light winds and a 8ft SW swell, 16-second period, combined energy 2726. Marginal but maybe worth a look if the wind stays light.

From Wednesday the 23rd onwards it fades again. Smaller swells, lumpy wind, and poor conditions. Honestly, the best session across the whole sixteen days is Saturday morning the 12th – a 7ft SW groundswell, light cross-shore wind, clean-ish conditions, combined energy of 2028. It’s not firing, but it’s the pick of a pretty average bunch. Cape Paterson is sheltered and SW-oriented, and optimum swell is from the SW, so when it does line up, it can work, but this run is patchy.

Given the water temp is 57°F with a 2° anomaly – that’s a touch warmer than average for this time of year. Nothing wild, but noticeable on the skin.

Stay patient, mate. Forecasts can change. Rusty.

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