Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's have a look at what Cape Paterson has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, the next few days are a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a big, chunky SW groundswell rolling in, but the wind is howling from the WSW and SW at 19 mph, absolutely trashing the surface. Saturday morning is looking at a solid 10 ft swell but with 19 mph onshore wind, it’s going to be a messy, blown-out scene. The combined energy is pumping at 2866 – there’s plenty of grunt in the water – but the conditions are poor. That’s a no-go for a paddle board. If you’ve got a kite, maybe, but for us surfers, it’s a wait-and-see.

We have a bit of a lull Sunday and Monday as that big swell drops. Sunday the 5th has some solid 8 ft SW groundswell, but it’s still cross-offshore with a moderate breeze. The tide might be a factor, it’s marginal at best.

The real window opens up Wednesday the 8th of July. We see a 5 ft SW groundswell with a very long 18-second period. The wind is a clean 9 mph cross-off from the ENE, and the combined energy is a healthy 1773. This is a standout for well-shaped waves. That long period will wrap nicely around the reef setup here, giving us some proper lines. Expect clean faces and less crowd competition.

From there, the surf settles into a steady rhythm of waist-to-chest high SSW to WSW swell through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with light cross-offshore winds keeping things tidy. Not epic, but clean and surfable. The water temp is 58°, which is actually a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice bonus.

Then we hit a wall of chaos. Monday the 13th of July the wind goes nuclear – a 25 mph cross-shore from the NW, and the swell bumps up to a massive 15 ft. That is huge, with a combined energy of 8429. The conditions will be atrocious, with strong cross-chop. That is expert-only territory if it’s even rideable, which it likely won’t be. That trend of wild, blown-out, and dangerous conditions continues through Tuesday and Wednesday the 15th. The surf is big but the quality is awful.

The light at the end of the tunnel arrives on Thursday the 16th of July. The morning looks *glass*. As in, no wind at all, just a calm, clean 6 ft SW groundswell. The energy is still solid at 1314, and with a 15-second period, those waves will have real push. This is a fantastic window for a morning session. The break will be clean and lined up. That is the standout of the whole outlook, it’s just a week and a half away.

After that, the surf settles back into small, clean conditions through the final days of the forecast. Again, not pumping, but perfect for a fun, uncrowded paddle on the longboard.

Rusty

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