Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 3,427 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for Cape Paterson.
We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the wait is worth it. The first real action kicks off Friday morning, July 17, with a solid 6ft SW groundswell pushing in at a very long 16 seconds. The combined energy is a hefty 1694, so there’s plenty of power. The wind is a clean cross-off from the NNW, meaning the sets will be holding up nicely. That’s the standout window for the first week. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.
Friday afternoon gets a bit scratchy as the wind swings onshore, and the rest of the weekend sees the swell easing off. Sunday morning, July 19, has a smaller 4ft WSW swell with clean cross-off wind, but it’s just not the same energy.
The following week is a write-off for quality. Strong winds, onshore slop, and lumpy conditions dominate from Monday through to the following weekend. Even though there’s significant swell on the 23rd and 24th – 8ft to 8ft – the wind is howling onshore from the WSW, making it a mess. For a sheltered spot like Cape Paterson, this setup is more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers.
Now, into the second week, things get interesting again. Thursday, July 30, is a real standout. The morning brings an 12ft WSW swell with clean cross-off wind from the N, and the afternoon is even better: the wind goes glassy offshore from the NE, with a 10ft WSW swell. That’s a full-on session for experienced surfers only – the combined energy is 3249, it’s powerful and clean. The 31st also has potential in the morning with a 13ft WSW swell and clean cross-off, but it’s big.
The real headline, though, is Saturday, August 1. The morning has a 10ft W swell with clean conditions, but the afternoon is absolutely colossal: an 18ft WSW swell. The combined energy reads 9261 – that’s extreme. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. If you’re an expert and you’ve got the nerve, it’s a call you’d have to make on the day. For everyone else, stick to the 30th.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Mon morning). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 7 | SW 10 | SW 13 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1694 | 1737 | 1289 | 1210 | 1018 | 640 | 402 | 283 | 203 | 532 | 229 | 268 | 504 | 805 | 669 | 412 | 521 | 550 | 1569 | 2605 | 3427 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | 3:26PM0.83m | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | 8:55PM0.15m | 9:03AM0.08m | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | |  |  | | | |
 | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — |
 | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | WSW 10 | WSW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | E 10 | WSW 14 | — | SW 16 |
| kJ | 1694 | 1737 | 1289 | 1210 | 1018 | 640 | 402 | 283 | 203 | 532 | 180 | 101 | 504 | 805 | 669 | 412 | 521 | 2 | 342 | — | 3427 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | ESE 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | W 18 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 32 | 31 | 154 | 10 | 229 | 268 | 75 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | WSW 12 | ESE 11 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 60 | 29 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 2 | WNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | WSW 7 | SW 10 | SW 13 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | — | 6 | 23 | 12 | 550 | 1569 | 2605 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 52 | 117 | 126 | 117 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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