Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are a mixed bag down at Cape Paterson. We’ve got some solid, powerful SW groundswells on the cards, but the wind is going to be a real headache for most of it. The big swell is there, but it’s mostly blown-out or messy, so you’ll have to pick your moments carefully.

The water is sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, around 56.7°F, which is a nice little bonus.

Let’s kick things off. Thursday the 3rd is a write-off. We’ve got a 13.1ft WSW swell with a 14-second period, but it’s a howling 25 mph cross-onshore. The combined wave energy is massive (5921), but it’s a washing machine. Not worth even looking at.

Friday the 4th is still tough. The swell drops to 9.8ft but the period stretches out to a very long 16 seconds. That’s pure groundswell. The morning is cross-shore with a 16 mph NW wind, making it choppy. The afternoon is a gentler cross-onshore, but still not clean. The scores are low – it’s a marginal call.

Saturday the 5th is a disaster. The morning has a 6.9ft SW swell with clean conditions thanks to a 28 mph cross-offshore wind, but 28 mph is gale force. That’s not for paddling. The afternoon blows up with a 13.1ft, 8-second short-period mess and a 28 mph cross-on. Forget it.

Sunday the 6th is more of the same. A 7.9ft SW swell on a 14-second period, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. The afternoon has a 6.9ft swell, but it’s still messy. This is a beach and reef setup, and with these strong winds, it’s honestly looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Monday the 7th is a drop-off. The swell is down to 3.9ft with a moderate cross-on. The energy is weak (485). Tuesday the 8th morning is a glimmer of hope. The swell picks up to 5.9ft from the SW with a 13-second period, and the wind is a light cross-shore breeze. The wave energy is solid (1906). It’s a marginal call, but with the light wind, it’ll be the best looking conditions in days. The afternoon goes back to a cross-on.

Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th are back to big, powerful groundswell – 9.8ft from the SW with periods of 16 to 18 seconds. The energy is huge (4049 to 6514), but the wind is a fresh onshore. It’s just too messy.

Friday the 11th is a drop-off again. Swell down to 6.2ft, but the wind is onshore. Not great.

Now, here’s the standout. Saturday the 12th morning. This is the one to circle. The swell is a clean 5.9ft from the SW, with a 15-second period. The combined energy is moderate (1477). But the magic is the wind – it’s glassy. A 3 mph offshore from the NE. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is your window. The break is Cape Paterson (Australia), a beach and reef set-up. It’s an advanced spot, but with glassy conditions and that solid groundswell, it’ll be well-shaped. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have a few mates out, but it’s worth it. The afternoon has a light cross-shore, so it’s still okay, but the morning is the winner.

Sunday the 13th is a step down. The morning has a 4.6ft WSW swell, clean with a light cross-offshore, but the energy is low (669). It’s a good option for a quieter session.

Monday the 14th is tiny – 2.3ft to 3.0ft. The period is very long (18 seconds), but the swell is small. The wind is clean, but it’s a long-period groundswell that’ll be breaking straight at a beach break. Not ideal.

Tuesday the 15th is a messy cross-on. Wednesday the 16th afternoon has a nice 5.9ft WSW swell with a 14-second period and clean cross-offshore winds. The wave energy is moderate (2402). The forecast score is a 3, which is the best of the second week. It’s a solid, clean option, but less certain this far out.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are a no-go. Huge SW groundswell (9.8ft, 18-second period) but with near-gale to strong cross-onshore winds. The energy is massive (5122), but it’s blown out. This is for experts only, and even then, it’s sketchy.

So, to wrap it up: the pick of the whole forecast is the morning of Saturday the 12th. Glassy, 5.9ft SW groundswell. If you can’t make that, Wednesday the 16th afternoon is the next best bet in the second week, but it’s less reliable. The rest of the period is a fight with the wind.

R

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