Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period, SW swell with 1,672 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 1.8m 16s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 02) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Cape Paterson in the units you’d use on the beach. We’ve got a bit of a ride over the next couple of weeks, with some real good clean windows and some long stretches of junk.
The main story is a lot of strong south-west groundswell energy, but the wind is gonna be the enemy most of the time. This is a sheltered spot, so it needs everything to line up. We’ll start strong, then hit a long flat spell of poor conditions, before a possible clean-up at the very end.
The first and best call is this Sunday morning, August 2nd. We’ve got a solid 5ft swell from the SW, with a long 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and it’s got a lot of push – the combined energy is a hefty 1390. The wind is a light north breeze at 9 mph, blowing cross-offshore, keeping the faces clean and lined up. This is for the advanced crew, as the power is real. Water temp is about average for the season.
We also need to flag Friday morning, August 7th. The swell is a bit smaller at 5ft, but it’s still a long 16-second period from the SW, and the energy is strong at 1137. The wind is a dead calm north at 3 mph, cross-offshore. That’s glassy conditions, and you’ll be surfing clean, open waves. The same goes for Saturday morning, August 8th: 5ft SW swell, 16-second period, 1031 energy, and light north winds at 6 mph, cross-off. Clean as a whistle.
Then the wheels fall off. From August 10th onward, the wind cranks up from the NW, making the surf lumpy and choppy. The swell gets bigger, some days hitting 8ft, but the quality is poor. With that strong cross-shore wind and a beach-and-reef setup, it’s looking more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle.
We do get a little hope on Monday, August 17th. That morning, we’re looking at a 4ft SW swell, a 12-second period, and a light NNW cross-offshore breeze at 6 mph. The energy is lower at 470, but the conditions are clean. It’s a long way out, but it’s a nice note to end on.
The standout is that Sunday, August 2nd. Get in the water while it’s good.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Sat night, strong winds from the NW by Mon morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | SW 7 | SW 20 | SW 19 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 17 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2042 | 1384 | 1273 | 1001 | 521 | 702 | 1447 | 775 | 1578 | 480 | 186 | 175 | 299 | 149 | 198 | 486 | 1084 | 1098 | 1570 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | |||||||
Low Tide | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | SW 21 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 17 |
| kJ | 2042 | 1384 | 1273 | 1001 | 521 | 702 | 1447 | 775 | — | 111 | 163 | 130 | 299 | 149 | 125 | 486 | 1084 | 1098 | 1570 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | W 10 | SW 17 | — | SW 18 | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 10 | WSW 9 | SW 19 | ESE 8 |
| kJ | 6 | 6 | 5 | 212 | 302 | — | 50 | — | — | 112 | 186 | 130 | 154 | 127 | 198 | 97 | 50 | 540 | 12 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | WSW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | SW 19 | — | E 9 | WSW 20 | SSW 4 | SSW 4 | W 8 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 75 | 207 | — | — | — | — | — | 48 | 175 | — | 2 | 40 | 11 | 3 | 33 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 4 | W 6 | W 7 | WSW 6 | W 7 | WSW 11 | SW 7 | SW 6 | SW 6 | SW 5 | SW 5 | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 5 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 314 | 335 | 151 | 302 | 1578 | 480 | 102 | 59 | 38 | 33 | 25 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 141 | 114 | 41 | 49 | 81 | 39 | 45 | 114 | 105 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 20 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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