Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 3,331 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 17s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 20) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Tue 18th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what's coming up for Cape Paterson.
First thing to note, the water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year. That's a nice little bonus right off the bat.
The next few days are a write-off. We've got a block of onshore and cross-shore winds that will keep the surf messy and uninviting. It's not until the 26th of August that we finally see a window of opportunity. That Wednesday morning has a gentle offshore breeze out of the NNE, with the swell coming in at 4ft from the WSW. The combined energy is moderate at 663. It's not huge, but it’ll be clean and surfable for the advanced crew. Wednesday afternoon holds up too, with a cross-off breeze and a 4ft SW swell.
The real standout, though, is the 30th of August. Sunday morning is looking like the best of the run. We've got a 5ft SSW swell with a light offshore breeze, making for clean conditions. The combined energy is strong at 1602, and the guidance says SW is the optimum direction, so this is a solid match. This one has got my attention.
Then on the 1st of September, Tuesday morning is also a cracker. Another 5ft SW swell with a light offshore breeze. The energy is moderate at 1020, and it’s looking very clean. For a long-range call, that's promising but keep an eye on it.
One thing to be aware of with Cape Paterson – it's a beach and reef setup that's sheltered and a bit inconsistent. It’s an advanced spot, so don't take the beginners down there when it's over 5ft, and definitely not when it's over 8ft. There’s a big pulse of energy late in the run, with the 28th of August seeing 13ft to 15ft swell, but with onshore winds, that's a no-go for paddle surfing. Might be a kite session for someone else.
The long period swells (14-18 seconds) on the good days will bring in some proper groundswell energy, which is great for points and reefs, but at a beach and reef setup, it might break a little too straight. Something to think about.
So, to sum it up: the 30th of August is the pick of the bunch, with the 1st of September as a close second. The rest of the window is mostly a waiting game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NW by Mon morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 9 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 589 | 229 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 335 | 198 | 530 | 740 | 439 | 2888 | 3288 | 2763 | 2515 | 1969 | 1509 | 1588 | 834 | 765 | 749 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 4:16AM0.77m | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:57PM0.06m | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  | | |  | |  | | | | | |  | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — |
 | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — |
mm | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 |
Temp °C | 17 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 12 |
Feels °C | 14 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | W 8 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 |
| kJ | 589 | 229 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 158 | 157 | 530 | 740 | 425 | 1145 | 2459 | 2763 | 2515 | 1969 | 1509 | 1588 | 834 | 765 | 749 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | WSW 13 | SW 17 | WSW 20 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — | — | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 19 |
| kJ | — | 127 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 128 | 198 | 148 | 253 | 439 | — | — | — | — | 157 | — | — | 18 | 44 | 95 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ESE 4 | SE 4 | — | SE 7 | SE 8 | SW 17 | — | — | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 3 | 140 | — | — | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 6 | NE 2 | N 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 9 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | W 7 | WSW 7 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 |
| kJ | 9 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 49 | 335 | 7 | 12 | 202 | 178 | 2888 | 3288 | — | — | — | — | 9 | 31 | 22 | 24 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 44 | 5 | 38 | 38 | 105 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 114 | 23 | 52 | 35 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 23 | 54 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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