Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,975 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 4th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at what's coming our way for Cape Paterson over the next couple weeks, and I gotta tell ya, it’s a tough stretch. The swell is gonna be pumping, but the wind gods are just not playing ball for most of it.
The whole run starts with a bang but it's an ugly one. A strong WSW swell is hitting, but with cross-onshore winds it's just blown out junk. We're talking about solid 12ft to 13ft surf with a heavy combined wave energy of 4463. Forget about getting a clean wave in that mess.
Friday the 4th is a little better, swell dropping to 10ft, but it's still cross-shore. It's marginal at best. Honestly, the rest of the first week and into the second is a write-off. We’ve got gale force winds, t-storms, and massive gnarly surf. It’s a lot of 8ft to 16ft slop with wind howling. Not for paddling, might be interesting for the kite crew out there.
For a solid stretch there, from the 5th right through to the 10th, it's nothing but bad news. Sunday the 6th morning offers a brief flicker of 8ft swell with some offshore wind, but the score is still low - it's a tricky one. The water temp is what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing crazy unusual.
Now, if you’re patient, there is one little window that could be a gem. Mark it down for Friday the 11th. We’ve got a clean 5ft SW groundswell coming in with a 16-second period. That’s quality energy. The wind in the morning is light and cross-offshore from the NNW, and then in the afternoon it goes totally glassy. Combined energy is 1284, so it's not a massive day, but the conditions will be clean. This is your window for Cape Paterson (Victoria). The break is a beach and reef setup, and a long period swell like this can run a bit straight at a beach, but with those light winds, it’ll be the best on offer by a long shot.
Saturday the 12th I’d skip, the clean look is still there but the wind picks up way too much. After that, it’s back to onshores and messy junk. A few pulses of 8ft swell around the 15th keep it interesting but the wind ruins it again.
So there you have it. A whole lot of waiting for that one glorious window on Friday the 11th. Keep the board waxed for that one.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Fri afternoon, gales from the W by Sat afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat night, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Sat night, light winds from the W by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | W 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2989 | 4463 | 5910 | 5947 | 4963 | 4213 | 3158 | 5492 | 4839 | 3770 | 2682 | 1859 | 795 | 347 | 257 | 512 | 817 | 1073 | 1431 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | |
 | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — |
mm | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | — | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 2261 | — | — | 5947 | 4963 | 4213 | 3158 | — | — | — | 2682 | 1859 | 795 | 347 | 257 | 512 | 689 | 604 | 1431 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | 81 | 162 | 84 | 71 | 315 | 817 | 1073 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | SW 20 | SSE 5 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | — | 196 | 8 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | — | NNW 4 | — | NNW 4 | W 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | — | — | — | W 4 | SW 6 | SSW 6 | — | — | WSW 4 |
| kJ | 2989 | 4463 | 5910 | — | 12 | — | 34 | 5492 | 4839 | 3770 | — | — | — | 20 | 118 | 91 | — | — | 34 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 105 | 117 | 117 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 496 | 447 | 117 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 447 | 45 | 41 | 114 | 443 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Cape Paterson surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest