Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Cape Paterson. It’s a bit of a bumpy ride ahead, with a big stormy spell right in the middle that’s gonna mess things up. But we’ve got a couple of windows to get excited about, so let’s break it down.

First up, Friday the 10th is your bright spot. It’s a beach and reef setup, so it needs that right swell direction. Friday morning we’ve got a solid 5ft swell out of the WSW, with a very long period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy, and it’s gonna have some serious push (combined energy of 1069). The wind is a light cross-off from the north at 6 mph, so the face should be clean. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual. Friday afternoon gets even better for a session: the wind drops to glassy, 0 mph from the southeast, with a slightly smaller but still solid 5ft swell from the SW. This is the pick of the whole forecast. The wave comment says “very good” and “good” conditions, so get out there. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea.

Friday the 10th is the clear standout. After that, things get messy quickly.

Saturday the 11th starts clean but the wind picks up to 12 mph in the morning, and then a fresh 22 mph breeze in the afternoon turns the 3ft to 4ft swell into a cross-off chop. It’s surfable but not worth burning a weekend pass for.

Then from Sunday the 12th all the way through to Thursday the 17th, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a massive storm swell – 13ft to 15ft from Sunday to Tuesday – with near gale-force winds howling from the NW and WNW. That’s 31 mph cross-shore and cross-onshore wind. The combined energy spikes to over 12,000 on Sunday and Monday, which is insane. The wave comment says “poor” for all those sessions. This is not for paddle surfing; this is a kite-boarder’s dream, or for the absolute experts with a death wish. The period is 12 to 16 seconds, so it’s lumpy, messy, and dangerous. I’d stay well clear.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th see the swell drop to 5ft to 8ft, but the wind is still cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the wave comment says “marginal.” The energy is still moderate (1000-2200), but it’s not going to be clean. You’d be scratching for a half-decent wave.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th offer a glimmer. The swell is 5ft to 6ft from the WSW, with a period of 13 to 16 seconds. The wind is light to moderate cross-off from the NNW, so it’s clean. The wave comment is still “marginal,” but it’s a damn sight better than the storm. There’s some energy there (800-1400), and the setup is clean. Saturday the 18th morning is the pick of this second window, with a solid 6ft and clean conditions.

After that, from Sunday the 19th onwards, the swell drops right off. We’re into 2ft to 3ft waves, with long periods (12-17 seconds) but very little energy (200-400). The wind is offshore or light, so it’s clean, but there’s just not enough wave to do much on. The wave comment says “surfable” but “ordinary.” It’s a flat spell for the last week of the forecast.

So, the bottom line: Friday the 10th is your day. Get out there for the morning glass-off or the afternoon glassy session. That’s the standout. The rest of the first week is a stormy mess, and the second week is flat and clean but too small. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a one-hit wonder.

Rusty.

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