Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise. The next week and a half is looking like a bit of a nightmare, to be honest. The surf is there, but the wind is going to make Cape Paterson a messy, blown-out mess for most of the run. Don’t get your hopes up for that first week—it’s a waiting game.

It starts this Sunday, the 13th. We’ve got about a 5ft SW swell with a 14-second period and a cross-off breeze. It’s clean, but the energy is weak (763) and the tide’s looking iffy. It’s surfable, but nothing special. Monday and Tuesday are poor—the wind swings onshore and it gets lumpy and chopped. Tuesday afternoon brings a solid 10ft of swell, but with a 40 km/h onshore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. Wednesday is still blown out, and Thursday, while the swell is nearly 7ft, it’s onshore and messy.

Then we hit a proper dry spell. Friday through to the following Sunday (the 20th) is consistently poor. There’s swell, but the wind is cross-shore or cross-onshore, often strong, sometimes near-gale. The sets will be unruly and the surface will be horrible. I wouldn’t bother paddling out for any of it.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The first real standout is the morning of Monday, the 21st. The wind drops to nothing—glass. We’ve got a clean 8ft WSW swell at 13 seconds. This is a proper session for experienced surfers. It’s big enough to have some push, but the glassy conditions will keep it clean. This is your window.

Then, the real gem. The standout of the whole forecast is the morning of Tuesday, the 22nd. The swell jumps to a solid 10ft from the SW, with a long 16-second period. The wind is a light cross-off and the wave energy is cranking (5076). This is the best on offer—powerful, clean, and lined up. Mark it in the calendar.

After that, it’s a bit of a mix. The 23rd still has some juice with a glassy 7ft WSW swell, but it’s a step down. Thursday the 24th brings a very long-period (19 seconds) 8ft SW swell, but the conditions are marginal with the wind. Friday the 25th morning looks clean again with a 5ft SW swell at 16 seconds and glassy conditions—a good option for a smaller, cleaner wave.

But just when you think it’s settling, the long-range forecast throws a curveball. That Sunday the 27th, the swell drops in period and jumps up in size, getting messy again. And then, on the morning of Monday the 28th—which is more than a week away, so treat this as promising but less certain—the model is calling for a massive 15ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period and clean, light offshore wind. The energy reading is huge (10013). That’s a serious, expert-only day. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, and with a long-period swell that size, it’s going to be breaking heavy and fast—definitely not for the faint of heart. That’s the big one on the horizon.

So, to sum up: this week is a loss. Your two real days to get excited about are the 21st and especially the 22nd. Keep an eye on that big one at the end, but don’t book the time off yet. The water temp is pretty average for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there.

Rusty.

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