Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 14 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 8,363 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Thu 9th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's get into it.
Alright, we've got a bit of a mixed bag coming up for Cape Paterson, but the good news is there's some solid groundswell on the horizon. The water temperature is sitting at 58°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year, so it's a touch on the milder side, but still a full wetsuit job.
The first real standout is shaping up for Wednesday afternoon, July 8th. The waves are going to be a solid 7 ft from the SW, with a very long period of 18 seconds. That's proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a hefty 2402 (moderate to strong), so it's got some serious push. The wind is a cross-off from the SE at 9 mph, which will keep things clean. This is a big, powerful swell though, and at 7 ft, it's definitely for the experienced crew. With that 18-second period, the waves will be long and lined up, but at a beach-and-reef setup like this, it might take a bit of reading to find the right take-off spot.
The next good window is Friday morning, July 10th. The swell drops back to 5 ft from the WSW, with a 15-second period (still a nice long groundswell), and the combined energy is 1069 (moderate). The wind is a cross-off from the north at 6 mph, so it'll be clean. This is a much more manageable size for a wider range of surfers, but still a fun wave.
After that, things get messy. Saturday, July 11th sees the wind howling out of the north at 22-25 mph, and the swell drops right off. It's a write-off. Then Sunday, July 12th through to Tuesday, July 14th gets blown out completely with strong onshore and cross-shore winds, and the swell jumps up to 12 ft to 13 ft. That's a lot of power, but with the wind so bad, it's just a washing machine. This is more of a kite-surfing scene than a paddle one.
We get a bit of a reprieve on Wednesday morning, July 15th. The swell is 8 ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is 2148 (strong). The wind is a light cross-off from the ESE at 9 mph, making for clean conditions. This is another one for the advanced surfers, as that's a solid size. The swell is long-period, so expect some nice, powerful lines.
The rest of the second week is a bit of a mixed bag. Saturday, July 18th and Sunday, July 19th look promising, with smaller, cleaner conditions. On Sunday afternoon, July 19th, we get a 4 ft swell from the SW with a very long 19-second period, and the wind goes glassy. That's a real treat for the end of the run, but the swell is small, so it'll be a fun, clean board for the longboard or a fish.
The best of the entire forecast is the Wednesday afternoon, July 8th session. It's the biggest, cleanest, most powerful groundswell on offer, and it's right at the start of the run. If you're an experienced surfer, that's your time.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 8°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, strong winds from the N by Sat morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 31mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Sat night, moderate winds from the WNW by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wed 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 7 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1083 | 711 | 515 | 357 | 894 | 5187 | 4749 | 4324 | 4152 | 6159 | 8183 | 6690 | 4983 | 3510 | 2148 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | | | |  |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | |
 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 |
 | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | 5:14 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Temp °C | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | WSW 14 | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1083 | 711 | 515 | 357 | — | — | — | — | 4152 | 96 | — | 6690 | 4983 | 3510 | 2148 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | SE 11 | SW 20 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | SE 8 | WSW 9 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 24 | 49 | 5 | 97 | 9 | — | — | — | 3 | 86 | — | — | — | — | 18 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | E 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | W 7 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | NW 6 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 59 | 97 | 894 | 5187 | 4749 | 4324 | 138 | 6159 | 8183 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 227 | 142 | 227 | 118 | 142 | 141 | 734 | 745 | 117 | 23 | 113 | 5 | 227 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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