Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 11 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,821 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Sun 16th Aug)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Best Surf 1AM (Sun 16th Aug)6ft (1.9m) 15s
Most Powerful 7AM (Thu 13th Aug)10ft (3.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, mate, it’s a rough one to start. The first run of the forecast is a whole lot of nothin’ for the first few days—poor surf and strong onshore winds just makin’ a mess of things. We’re talkin’ Wednesday the 11th through to the 14th, just a write-off with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions. You’d be better off stayin’ home and waxin’ your board.

The first real chance of a surf comes on Saturday the 15th, but it’s marginal at best. Cape Paterson will have a 7ft swell from the SW with a long 15-second period, but the wind is light onshore in the morning and then cross-on in the arvo. The setup is a beach and reef, so that long period groundswell might be a bit too straight for the beach break, but you might find a clean one on the reef if the tide plays ball. The water’s a touch warm for this time of year, about 57°, which is a degree above normal—just a little hint of summer hangin’ around.

Now, Sunday the 16th is the standout. And I mean *the* standout. Early morning, the wind goes glassy—dead calm—and we’ve got a clean 6ft SW swell rollin’ in with a 14-second period. The combined energy of all swells directed here is 1203, which is moderate but feels solid. That’s a proper session for the advanced crew, with perfect conditions. The NE offshore wind is the go-to here, and it’s glassy, so it’ll be clean as a whistle. The crowds can be around sometimes, but with conditions like this, you’ll be happy to share the line-up.

Monday the 17th is still decent, with a 5ft SW swell and glassy conditions in the morning, but the swell drops off a bit. The combined energy is 777, so it’s a bit weaker. Still a good sesh for the experienced surfer, but not the standout.

The rest of the week is a bit of a mixed bag. Tuesday the 18th has a light cross-offshore wind and a 5ft SW swell, with a combined energy of 1120, so it’s still clean and fun. But the swell drops further through the middle of the week—down to 3ft and 3ft—so it’s just small, ordinary waves. Even with glassy conditions on Thursday the 20th, there’s just not enough swell to get excited about.

Then we get a bit of a pulse again on Friday the 21st, with a 5ft WSW swell and a long 16-second period, clean cross-offshore wind, and a combined energy of 954. That’s a hopeful sign, but it’s still a bit underwhelming.

The real promise comes in the second week, but it’s a long way off. Monday the 24th has a big 10ft WSW swell, with a combined energy of 5669—that’s a strong, powerful swell. But the wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it’s gonna be lumpy and messy. Not for the faint of heart. Then Tuesday the 25th looks better, with a 7ft WSW swell and a clean cross-offshore wind, combined energy of 1907. That’s a solid groundswell, and while it’s over 8ft, it’s for the experts only. The period is 14 seconds, so it’ll be heavy and powerful, likely breaking a bit too straight for the beach, so the reef might be the go.

All in all, if you’re gonna pick one, make it Sunday the 16th. That’s the gold. The rest is just noise until the next pulse, but that’s too far out to be sure. Keep your eyes open.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat night, min 11°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Tue
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
3
1
3
3
2
2
2
1
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.7
WSW
14
1.2
WSW
13
2.1
WSW
16
1.4
SW
16
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
3
SW
16
2.5
WSW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.4
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
1.7
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1193
482
2318
989
4646
4729
4258
3794
3738
3219
2725
2204
1936
1576
1203
1064
895
777
967
1059
Wind (km/h)
30
NW
40
NNW
35
W
35
W
30
W
35
WNW
30
W
25
WNW
25
W
25
WSW
15
SW
10
SW
10
S
10
ESE
5
NNW
5
S
10
ENE
5
N
15
SSE
15
E
Wind State
cross
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
off
glassy
cross
cross-off
High Tide
8:55PM0.69m
10:42AM0.72m
10:13PM0.68m
11:47AM0.74m
11:33PM0.69m
12:43PM0.76m
00:44AM0.72m
1:33PM0.78m
1:47AM0.74m
2:17PM0.80m
2:42AM0.76m
2:57PM0.80m
3:31AM0.77m
Low Tide
3:47AM0.07m
4:34PM0.34m
4:57AM0.08m
5:47PM0.29m
6:04AM0.09m
6:50PM0.23m
7:05AM0.10m
7:44PM0.17m
7:58AM0.11m
8:33PM0.12m
8:47AM0.13m
9:17PM0.08m
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:07
7:07
7:05
7:03
7:03
7:01
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:36
5:37
5:37
5:38
5:39
5:39
5:40
 mm
3
1
2
2
Temp °C
12
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
12
12
13
12
13
14
13
13
12
13
13
13
Feels °C
5
3
3
4
5
7
7
8
7
7
9
9
10
11
11
10
8
12
11
9
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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