Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 01 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5°C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 31 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 14s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 5 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 13s period, WSW swell with 9,856 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 6 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 14s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.5m 13s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sun 6th Sep)7.5ft (2.3m) 14s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 6th Sep)7.5ft (2.3m) 14s
Most Powerful 7PM (Sat 5th Sep)18ft (5.5m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here, checking in on the Cape Paterson stretch. Let's get into it.

Straight up, this is a tricky forecast for Cape Paterson. It's a fairly consistent spot, but we're looking at a long stretch of challenging conditions before any real reward. For the next week and a half, the wind is going to be a major problem. There's a window of promise right at the very end of the 16-day run, but we've got to get through a lot of messy weather to get there.

The water temperature is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

The first real chance to get wet comes Tuesday morning, September 1st. We've got a solid 5ft southwest swell rolling in with a very long 16-second period, bringing a lot of energy. The wind is a strong cross-off from the NNW, which will keep the waves clean, but that 25 mph wind is going to be a battle. The size and long period makes this one for the advanced crew only.

Wednesday, the 2nd, sees the swell building, but the wind is shifting to a cross-on, making things choppy. By the afternoon we're looking at 8ft, but the quality is marginal.

From Thursday the 3rd right through the first week, the wind is relentless. We're looking at strong cross-onshore or near-gale conditions with massive, messy swell. The waves get huge, up to 18ft on Saturday the 5th, but it's completely blown out. At this size and with those winds, the beach and reef setup here looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The combined energy values are massive but it's just raw power with no order.

We get a bit of a reprieve on Sunday the 6th. The afternoon brings a light onshore wind and a 8ft swell, but it's still marginal. The wind turns glassy-light on Monday the 7th with a 4ft swell, but it's small.

The second week is more of the same – strong winds and messy surf. There's a brief moment on Friday, September 11th, where we see a clean 10ft swell from the SW with a very long 18-second period and a light cross-off breeze. That's a powerful combination, but the wind is forecast to swing back to a cross-on by the afternoon, messing it up.

The real standout, and the one to circle on the calendar, is Tuesday, September 15th. After all this wind, we get a beautiful morning with glassy conditions. The swell is 5ft from the SW with a very long 18-second period. This is groundswell at its finest. The long period might make it a bit shifty on the beach break, but the conditions are forecast to be "very good". This is the one to aim for, but it's 16 days out, so keep an eye on it.

In summary, Cape Paterson is a bit of a write-off for the first week and a half unless you're keen on battling the wind. The best bet is that Tuesday, September 15th, morning session.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Wed afternoon, strong winds from the W by Thu morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the SW by Sun afternoon).

Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
2
3
3
2
2
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1
SW
15
1.7
WSW
16
2.3
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
14
4
WSW
13
3.5
WSW
14
3
WSW
15
3
WSW
16
2.4
WSW
15
4.5
WSW
10
5.5
WSW
12
4
WSW
15
3
WSW
15
2.5
WSW
14
1.9
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
13
1.1
SW
13
1.1
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1149
816
418
1517
2454
3030
4822
5661
5017
4487
3822
2646
3804
8867
6340
4153
2618
1216
546
382
421
Wind (km/h)
40
NNW
40
NNW
35
WNW
25
W
15
W
35
NW
45
W
40
W
30
WNW
30
NNW
30
NNW
40
NNW
50
WNW
55
W
35
W
20
NW
5
SW
15
NE
5
NNW
0
SSE
15
W
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
on
off
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
High Tide
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
3:41PM0.78m
4:32AM0.80m
4:18PM0.78m
5:16AM0.79m
4:57PM0.77m
6:05AM0.77m
5:41PM0.75m
6:58AM0.73m
6:32PM0.72m
Low Tide
8:49PM0.10m
9:07AM0.18m
9:26PM0.06m
9:47AM0.19m
10:04PM0.03m
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
11:08AM0.24m
11:30PM0.02m
11:54AM0.27m
00:19AM0.04m
12:45PM0.30m
1:15AM0.07m
clear
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clear
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<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:35
6:33
6:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
5:58
5:59
6:00
 mm
3
3
6
1
1
1
Temp °C
18
19
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
14
15
15
13
13
12
12
13
11
14
14
12
Feels °C
10
11
9
7
10
7
3
3
5
7
8
8
3
2
4
8
11
6
12
13
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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