Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 16 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
0.7° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 16 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period, SW swell with 2,233 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 15s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1AM (Fri 17th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 15s
Best Surf 1AM (Fri 17th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 15s
Most Powerful 1PM (Thu 16th Jul)7.5ft (2.3m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson. It’s a mixed bag, to be honest. This spot is a sheltered beach and reef setup, only really for advanced surfers, especially when it gets big. We’ve got a decent run of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a real headache for most of it.

The water temp is sitting around 57°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick off on Thursday, 16 July, but don’t get excited. There’s a solid 8ft SW groundswell (15-second period) rolling in, with a combined energy of 2203. That’s a lot of grunt, but it’s coming with a strong onshore WSW wind at 6 mph. The wave comment says it’s marginal, and I’m not touching it. The wind picks up in the arvo, making it even worse.

Friday, 17 July, is where it starts to look a bit more promising. The morning session is the standout. The swell has dropped to 6ft from the SW, still a long 16-second period, and the energy is still substantial at 1806. The big news is the wind has swung to a cross-offshore NNW breeze at 9 mph. That’s clean, and the forecast is calling for “very good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer in the first week. The afternoon gets a cross-on wind, so don’t bother with that.

Saturday, 18 July, is a similar story. The morning is clean with a cross-off NNW wind at 9 mph and a 6ft WSW swell (14-second period). The energy is still moderate at 1193. It’s good, but not as punchy as Friday. The wind goes light and cross-on for the arvo.

Sunday, 19 July, the swell drops to 4ft with a WSW direction and a 13-second period. The morning is clean with a cross-off NNW breeze, but the energy is only 534. It’s rideable, but you’ll be working for it.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Monday, 20 July, right through to Sunday, 26 July, it’s mostly poor or marginal. The wind is all over the shop – cross-shore, cross-chop, and at times a fresh breeze up to 19 mph. There’s a few clean windows, like Tuesday, 21 July morning, and Sunday, 26 July morning, but the swell is small and the energy is weak. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have it to yourself, but the quality just isn’t there.

The next real highlight pops up on Monday, 27 July. The morning sees a 8ft WSW swell (13-second period) with a cross-off NNW wind at 19 mph – that’s clean. The energy is 1930. The afternoon gets even bigger: a 10ft WSW swell with a 14-second period and a massive 3429 in combined energy. The wind is still cross-off, so it’s clean. But at 10ft, this is only for experts. This is the second standout of the whole forecast.

Tuesday, 28 July, is a write-off. The swell is 10ft to 12ft, but the wind is a near gale (31 mph) in the morning and a strong onshore in the arvo. The energy is insane (3504 to 5116), but it’s a messy, dangerous mess. This would be more of a kite surfing day than a paddle day.

The rest of the run into the end of July and into August is a mix of big swell and terrible wind. The last decent chance is on Friday, 31 July, with a 12ft SW groundswell of 16-second period and a massive 6239 energy. The wind is a cross-on S breeze at 12 mph, so it’s chopped up, but for a hardy expert, it might be worth a paddle. The period is long, so it’ll be better at the reef than the beach.

So, to wrap it up: the best windows are the morning of Friday, 17 July, and the morning and afternoon of Monday, 27 July. The rest is a lot of noise. Keep an eye on the charts, because it’s a dynamic forecast.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
1
2
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
2
SW
15
1.9
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
1.8
SW
15
1.7
WSW
14
1.7
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
1.2
WSW
13
1.1
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
12
1
WSW
16
0.7
SW
15
1.1
WSW
14
1.1
WSW
13
1.2
WSW
13
1.6
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1.4
WSW
12
1.2
WSW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2203
2111
1695
1806
1737
1396
1193
1018
711
462
339
209
532
229
478
384
447
878
517
555
353
Wind (km/h)
10
WSW
15
WSW
5
W
15
NNW
10
W
10
N
15
NNW
5
W
10
N
10
NNW
10
NW
15
N
20
NW
20
NW
20
NNW
20
NNW
15
NW
20
NW
20
NW
20
WNW
25
NW
Wind State
on
on
glassy
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross
High Tide
1:05PM0.80m
00:49AM0.73m
1:56PM0.82m
1:53AM0.74m
2:43PM0.83m
2:53AM0.75m
3:26PM0.83m
3:48AM0.75m
4:06PM0.82m
4:39AM0.74m
4:44PM0.80m
5:28AM0.72m
5:21PM0.76m
Low Tide
7:06PM0.26m
7:17AM0.03m
8:03PM0.21m
8:12AM0.05m
8:55PM0.15m
9:03AM0.08m
9:43PM0.11m
9:51AM0.13m
10:28PM0.09m
10:36AM0.17m
11:11PM0.08m
11:19AM0.22m
11:51PM0.09m
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:31
7:31
7:31
7:30
7:28
7:28
7:28
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:17
5:19
 mm
2
Temp °C
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
12
12
12
14
13
12
14
13
12
14
13
12
12
12
Feels °C
10
9
10
8
9
9
9
10
10
9
12
10
7
10
9
8
11
9
7
8
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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