Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 20 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6° C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 20 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,097 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6.5ft (2.0m) 16s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6.5ft (2.0m) 16s
Most Powerful10AM (Sat 22nd Aug)11ft (3.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's comin' down the line for our local stretch.

Overall, it's a real mixed bag. The next week and a half is largely about waitin' out some pretty ordinary conditions. The beginning is grim, then there's a brief window of a smaller, cleaner wave, but it comes with some serious caveats. The best bet in the entire 16-day window actually pops up towards the end of the forecast, but I'll keep you posted.

Starting off from the 20th of August through to the 22nd, honestly, just don't bother. We've got a building swell, with the swell energy hitting a massive 5097 on the Saturday (22nd August), but every session is plagued by strong, lumpy cross-onshore winds. Swell heights from just under 3 ft up to a powerful 12 ft, but it's all blown-out, messy, and the swell period is in that long, groundswell territory (13-16 seconds), which is great in theory, but not when the wind is ruining it. This is a clear "surfboard stays in the car" situation.

There’s a little shift on the 23rd of August (Sunday). The swell drops back to 8 ft from the SW, with a 14-second period. The winds are still cross, but lighter. The energy is still moderate at 2164. It’s rated as marginal, so not great, but it's the best we've seen all week. By Monday morning the 24th of August, we finally get some clean conditions. The wind goes cross-offshore from the NNW at 16 mph, making for clean faces on a 5 ft SW swell (1002 wave energy). It's still rated as "marginal," but if you're desperate, that's the pick for the week.

Things get messy again from the 25th to the 29th of August. The wind is all over the place, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell bounces between 4 ft and 7 ft. The bigger days get the lumpiest winds. Throughout this whole period, most surf is just "poor" or "marginal."

Then, on Monday the 31st of August, things get interesting. We have conditions that are called "good surf conditions." The wind goes light and cross-offshore (N at 3 mph), creating clean conditions. The swell is 6 ft from the WSW with a short 10-second period. This period is fairly short, so the waves will be a bit more sectiony, but for paddle surfing, it means more consistent waves without those long, waiting gaps. The energy is moderate at 850. This is a genuine standout. If you're an advanced surfer, the morning of the 2nd of September is another shout. It's clean with an 8 ft swell from the W, though the period is a short 7 seconds, meaning it'll be a bit of a choppy, dumpy close-out at the beach. The energy is still moderate (937).

The true standout of the whole run, however, is the 3rd of September. On Thursday morning, we get another pocket of clean conditions with a cross-offshore wind from the NNW at 19 mph. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the WSW with a proper groundswell period of 14 seconds. The combined energy hits a strong 3112. That's a legitimate swell. The wind will be holding the faces open and clean. For an advanced surfer, that Thursday morning is the absolute target. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it, but that’s the one that stands out.

To break it down for you:

- Best overall day: Thursday 3rd September morning. 8 ft SW groundswell, clean offshore wind. It'll be big with lots of power (3112), so this is for experienced crew only.
- Second best (if you want a paddle): Monday 31st August morning. 6 ft West swell, clean wind. Safer size, more manageable.
- The rest: Rough and not worth it. The early days (20th-22nd) are a total write-off.

Signin' off, Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Thu afternoon, fresh winds from the WNW by Fri night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Tue morning, fresh winds from the SE by Tue night).

Thu
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
2
1
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
16
1.3
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
17
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
14
3
SW
14
2.3
SW
14
1.9
WSW
13
1.9
WSW
16
1.6
SW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.3
SW
13
2.5
SW
15
2.2
WSW
14
1.9
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
198
581
740
630
1422
5097
4287
3192
1950
1235
1677
1002
838
668
632
569
3004
1997
1198
711
Wind (km/h)
15
WNW
25
WNW
30
NW
30
WNW
35
WNW
35
W
30
WSW
20
W
20
NW
10
WNW
25
NNW
25
NNW
30
NW
20
NW
5
SSW
30
S
15
SSW
25
SSE
20
SW
20
SW
Wind State
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
on
High Tide
4:46PM0.76m
5:39AM0.72m
5:20PM0.73m
6:20AM0.69m
5:54PM0.69m
7:04AM0.66m
6:31PM0.66m
7:55AM0.63m
7:14PM0.63m
8:55AM0.62m
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
Low Tide
11:13PM0.08m
11:28AM0.27m
11:51PM0.11m
12:05PM0.30m
00:30AM0.13m
12:46PM0.34m
1:13AM0.16m
1:34PM0.37m
2:03AM0.19m
2:35PM0.40m
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
part cloud
rain showers
cloud
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
light rain
light rain
cloud
light rain
part cloud
cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:56
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:50
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:44
5:45
5:45
5:46
5:46
5:47
5:49
 mm
2
2
3
5
4
Temp °C
15
11
12
13
12
12
13
12
12
13
13
14
16
13
12
11
11
11
11
11
Feels °C
11
6
6
7
5
5
6
6
8
10
9
8
10
8
6
4
4
5
6
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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