Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 30 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 11s period, WSW swell with 3,847 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 22s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 02) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Fri 31st Jul)4.5ft (1.4m) 12s
Best Surf 4PM (Sat 1st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 18s
Most Powerful10PM (Mon 3rd Aug)13ft (4.0m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

The first good news is that things are pretty quiet to start, but we’ve got some real gems lined up if you’re patient. It’s not a flat-out no-go, but the early days are a bit average, so we’ll work through it.

The standout of the whole run is Sunday, August 9th. We’ve got a solid 6.2ft SW groundswell, with a long period of 16 seconds, and the wind is blowing offshore from the NE. That’s a recipe for clean, lined-up waves. The combined energy is strong at 2339 (moderate to strong energy), and it’s calling for excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The morning will be the pick – glassy, offshore, and that swell will have plenty of push. This is hands down the best on offer. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Now, let’s start from the beginning. Friday, July 31st is a write-off – a 4.3ft SW swell with a 12-second period, but it’s marginal and the wind is cross-off. The wave energy is weak at 491. Not worth paddling out for.

Saturday, August 1st is a bit better. The morning is clean with a 3.3ft SW swell and light cross-off wind, but it’s small. Then Saturday afternoon is a real teaser: the wind goes glassy, the swell jumps to 5.2ft from the SW, and the period is a very long 18 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 1471. This is a window of clean, glassy waves, but it’s a short window. If you can get out then, you’ll be rewarded.

Sunday, August 2nd is a step back. The morning has a 5.2ft SW swell with a 16-second period, but the wind is a moderate 20 km/h cross-off. It’s clean but the wind is up. The afternoon gets chopped out with a stronger cross-wind. Not the best.

Monday, August 3rd and Tuesday, August 4th are a write-off. Strong onshore winds and rain, with messy 8.2ft swell on Tuesday. This is for the die-hards or the kite surfers – the beach-and-reef setup will be blown out. Leave it.

Wednesday, August 5th through Thursday, August 6th are also poor. The swell drops, but the wind is cross-onshore and the waves are choppy. Not worth a look.

Friday, August 7th morning is a nice surprise. A 4.3ft WSW swell, 15-second period, with light NNW cross-off wind. The energy is moderate at 1331, and conditions are clean. A solid, fun morning session.

Saturday, August 8th morning is clean again – 3.9ft WSW swell, 14-second period, light NNE cross-off wind. But it’s small and the energy is only 561. A cruiser session for the longboard.

Now, back to that Sunday, August 9th morning. That’s the one. Offshore wind, 6.2ft groundswell, long period – it’s going to be beautiful. The afternoon is still good, but the wind shifts cross-off. Still, the morning is the pick of the entire forecast.

Monday, August 10th is a no-go. The swell is 6.9ft, but the wind is howling at 40 km/h from the NNW. That’s a strong breeze, and the energy is moderate but the conditions will be messy.

Tuesday, August 11th is for experts only. The swell is 14.8ft from the WSW with a 16-second period, generating a massive 16572 energy. That’s very strong energy. The wind is cross, and the report says it’s too big for this break. This is a serious, heavy swell. Only for the very experienced crew, and even then, it’s going to be a wild one.

Wednesday, August 12th is a gale-force onshore mess. 50 km/h winds from the WSW, rain, and a 6.9ft swell. Skip it.

Thursday, August 13th morning is a massive standout. The wind is glassy, calm, with a 5.9ft SW swell and a 20-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell. The energy is 3102, strong. This will be beautiful, clean, long-period waves. The only caveat is that with such a long period, it might break a bit straight on the beach, but for a reef setup like Cape Paterson, it’ll be dreamy. This is a top-tier session for experienced surfers.

Friday, August 14th morning is also excellent. A 7.9ft SW swell, 18-second period, with light offshore N wind. Energy is 3829, strong. Clean, big

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 26mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun night, min 8°C on Mon morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Mon night, light winds from the WSW by Wed morning).

Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
1
1
2
3
3
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
1.2
SW
12
1.1
SW
11
1
SW
12
1.6
SW
18
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.6
WSW
15
1.1
SW
14
1.2
SW
16
3.5
WSW
11
2.5
WSW
12
2.2
WSW
11
1.7
SW
11
0.6
SW
20
1.3
WSW
14
0.8
SW
17
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
712
455
383
283
292
1465
1915
1384
1224
1102
514
720
2795
1693
1176
702
309
607
358
Wind (km/h)
15
SW
15
NNW
10
NW
10
NNE
10
N
5
W
15
NNE
20
NNW
25
NW
15
NNE
35
NNW
35
NW
35
W
35
WSW
35
WSW
20
SW
10
WSW
15
WSW
15
W
Wind State
on
cross-off
cross
off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
00:05AM0.60m
1:22PM0.71m
1:02AM0.62m
2:00PM0.73m
1:53AM0.64m
2:34PM0.75m
2:40AM0.67m
3:06PM0.77m
3:24AM0.70m
3:38PM0.77m
4:06AM0.72m
4:09PM0.77m
Low Tide
6:33AM0.16m
7:29PM0.31m
7:21AM0.16m
8:11PM0.27m
8:04AM0.16m
8:48PM0.22m
8:45AM0.16m
9:23PM0.18m
9:24AM0.17m
9:57PM0.13m
10:03AM0.19m
10:32PM0.10m
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:27
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
 mm
1
3
1
9
4
2
3
2
2
Temp °C
12
10
11
11
11
13
12
14
15
13
9
10
11
12
13
13
12
12
12
Feels °C
8
7
10
9
8
11
8
9
9
8
1
3
3
5
8
9
10
9
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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