
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 4,043 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sun 5th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Righto, grab a coffee, I’ve had a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson. There’s a bit of a story here, so listen up.
We’ve got a juicy run of groundswell kicking off early in the week, with some serious energy in the water. The standout period is definitely Sunday the 5th into Monday the 6th, but you’ll need to pick your windows carefully because the wind is going to play games. The water’s sitting at 58°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so not too bad.
Starting Sunday the 5th, the morning is your first call. We’ve got a solid 8ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period, and the combined energy is a strong 3770. The wind is a cross-off from the east at 12 mph, keeping it clean. It’s an advanced-only wave, though – that size and period will be pitching hard. The afternoon holds a still solid 7ft, but the wind swings a bit stronger. Keep this in mind if you’re not an expert, as it’s too big for beginners.
Monday the 6th is where it gets real nice. The swell drops to a more manageable 4ft, still a long-period 14-second SW groundswell, and the energy is moderate at 746. But the real star is the morning: a clean NE offshore breeze at 9 mph. The afternoon is almost glassy with a 4ft SW swell and a 3 mph SSW wind, leaving the surface pristine. Crowds can be around sometimes here, but on a Monday you might get lucky.
Tuesday the 7th morning is another glassy beauty. A 4ft SW swell with a 17-second period, NNW wind at 3 mph, and clean as a whistle. The energy is moderate at 851. The afternoon gets a bit messy with a light cross-shore breeze, so aim for the early.
Wednesday the 8th morning brings a bigger pulse of 5ft SW groundswell, 19-second period, and a cross-off east breeze. The combined energy jumps up to 1938 – that’s moderate but punchy. The afternoon sees 7ft, but the wind gets stronger, making it less appealing.
Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th both offer good, clean conditions in the mornings and glassy afternoons, with swell around the 4-5ft range. Friday afternoon is a real highlight: a 5ft WSW groundswell, 16-second period, and that glassy NW wind. The energy is 1112, and it’s looking very clean.
Saturday the 11th is still surfable with 4-4ft waves, but the energy is dropping off.
From Sunday the 12th onward, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a big gap with no real surf on offer. The wind goes howling from the north, then swings to a strong onshore south-westerly from the 14th, kicking up 25-31 mph gusts that ruin everything. Through the 15th and 16th, it’s onshore and lumpy, with small swell and poor conditions. Tuesday the 14th, with 7ft swell and 31 mph onshore wind, looks more like a kite session than a paddle. Things don’t improve until the 20th, and even then it’s only a marginal 3ft with a clean cross-off breeze.
So, the best on offer is Monday the 6th morning – that 4ft SW groundswell with offshore wind will be clean and fun, and that’s your go-to. Friday the 10th afternoon is the other standout, with glassy conditions and a nice 5ft swell.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun afternoon). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the E on Sun night, calm by Tue morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed morning, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
3770 | 2630 | 1513 | 746 | 513 | 304 | 851 | 813 | 784 | 1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 476 | 1239 | 1112 | 840 | 553 | 480 | 421 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | off | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:36PM0.77m | 3:36AM0.65m | 4:07PM0.77m | 4:20AM0.66m | 4:39PM0.76m | 5:05AM0.68m | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:51PM0.23m | 9:40AM0.16m | 10:25PM0.20m | 10:19AM0.18m | 11:00PM0.17m | 11:00AM0.21m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | ||||||||
7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | |
— | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
3770 | 2630 | 1513 | 746 | 513 | 304 | 851 | 813 | 784 | 1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 476 | 1239 | 1112 | 840 | 553 | 480 | 421 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ESE 5 | SE 5 | ESE 4 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | SE 12 | WSW 14 | — | ESE 12 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SW 18 | — | — | — | ESE 8 | NW 4 | ESE 7 |
— | — | — | 21 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 553 | — | 30 | 5 | 4 | 460 | — | — | — | 7 | 5 | 5 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | E 11 | SE 12 | SE 12 | ESE 11 | — | — | — | SW 22 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | ESE 8 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 60 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | — | — | — | 19 | 9 | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 4 | ESE 5 | E 5 | NNE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | N 4 |
— | 19 | 37 | 18 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 5 | 11 | 41 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 45 | 66 | 66 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










