Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 3,130 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it. The next couple of weeks at Cape Paterson are looking like a mixed bag of frustration and a couple of genuine windows where it all comes together. Don’t get too excited about the first week, because there’s a lot of onshore slop and cross-chop to wade through. The real promise starts to show up later in the period, so keep that in mind.
Right out of the gate, Wednesday the 19th is a write-off for any decent wave riding. We’ve got a cross-off breeze but the swell is small and weak at 2.3ft to 2.6ft, with a slow 14 to 15 second period. The energy is sitting in the 229 to 257 range, which is pretty anemic, and the water temp is 56.3° Fahrenheit, about 1.8° warmer than usual for this time of year—noticeable, but not crazy. It’s clean-looking, but there’s just nothing to push you around. Don’t bother.
Thursday the 20th sees a bump in size to 4.9ft in the morning, but it’s short-period windswell at 8 seconds and the wind is cross and messy. The energy jumps to 608, but with a moderate cross-chop, it’s going to look like a washing machine out there. The surf quality is poor. Friday the 21st is slightly bigger on the face, around 4.3ft, but the period stretches to 16 seconds, which is proper groundswell. However, the wind is fresh and cross-shore, creating lumpy, crumbly conditions. The energy is solid at 1179, but it’s not translating into anything rideable. You’d be fighting the wind more than catching waves.
The weekend is a battle. Saturday the 22nd is the biggest of the early run, with 8.2ft of WSW swell and a 15 to 16 second period. Energy is cranking at 3130, but the wind is cross-onshore and it’s going to be a choppy, blown-out mess. That’s definitely expert territory if anyone’s silly enough, but it’s not what I’d recommend. Sunday the 23rd drops to 7.2ft but the conditions are still marginal, with cross-shore winds. The light breeze on Sunday afternoon might tidy it up a touch, but the period is still 14 seconds and it’s going to be lumpy. Not the day for a hero session.
Monday the 24th fades back to 4.6ft, with a fresh cross-off breeze that cleans up the surface, but the energy drops to 749 and the surf just isn't offering much shape. Tuesday the 25th has 4.9ft but the wind turns onshore, and it’s just not fun. Wednesday the 26th is cleaner with a cross-off, but the swell is inconsistent at 5.9ft and the period drops to 12 seconds. It’s okay, not great. The energy is moderate at around 980, but you’ll be scratching your head for waves. Thursday the 27th fades badly, down to 2.6ft with weak energy.
Now, here’s where the outlook changes. The start of the second week brings our first real standout. Monday the 31st of August, early morning. The wind is a light offshore from the NE, the air is clear, and the swell is a clean 2.6ft coming from the SW with a very long 19-second period. The energy is only 551, which is weak, but it’s glassy and offshore—that’s a recipe for clean, lined-up waves at the reefs and points. It’s a dawn patrol special for the longboard.
But the true standout—the one you circle on the calendar—is Tuesday the 1st of September, morning session. The wind is light offshore from the ENE, it’s clear, and the swell has built to 5.2ft with a solid 15-second period from the SW. The energy is up to 1212, which is moderate, but it’s clean, strong, and pushing in the right direction. This is the pick of the fortnight. Expect proper, rideable surf on the bank. It’ll be a bit bigger than the Monday, so if you’ve got a step-up board, bring it. This is the one to get out for.
After that, Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd are okay but not in the same league. Wednesday the 2nd has a clean 3.9ft with a light cross-off in the morning, but the energy is lower at 610. Thursday the 3rd, the period drops right off to 6 seconds in the morning—that’s just windswell and it’s going to be weak and messy, despite being glassy. The afternoon gets bigger at 6.6ft but the period stays short, so it’s not going to have any punch.
So, overall, the first week is a write-off with a couple of poor, choppy days. The weekend will be big and ugly. Don’t get your hopes up until that Monday the 31st. The real gem is Tuesday the 1st of September—clean, offshore, and with a proper swell. That’s your window. Get on it, and you’ll score. If you’re a beginner, stay home on the 22nd and 28th when it’s overhead and messy
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the NW by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 8 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
257 | 229 | 268 | 319 | 198 | 378 | 740 | 501 | 1614 | 3130 | 3076 | 2662 | 1969 | 1531 | 1412 | 731 | 532 | 791 | 553 | 749 | 967 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | on | cross-on | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | |||||||
6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | |
— | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | |
mm | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 17 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
257 | 229 | 268 | 158 | 198 | 378 | 740 | 501 | 1614 | 3130 | 3076 | 2662 | 1969 | 1531 | 1412 | 731 | 532 | 791 | 553 | 749 | 967 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 20 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | — | — | SW 21 | WSW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | — |
5 | 5 | 43 | 128 | 140 | 181 | 253 | 439 | — | — | — | — | 211 | — | — | 18 | 38 | 83 | 117 | 261 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 4 | — | SE 7 | SE 8 | WSW 17 | — | — | WSW 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | SW 13 | — | — |
3 | — | 2 | 3 | 116 | — | — | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 64 | 28 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | NNW 5 | NNW 4 | W 8 | W 8 | W 5 | W 6 | WSW 7 | WSW 8 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | — | — | — | S 4 |
8 | 27 | 35 | 319 | 157 | 52 | 186 | 173 | 306 | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 46 | 47 | — | — | — | 17 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 49 | 5 | 105 | 23 | 41 | 52 | 114 | 5 | 35 | 35 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 52 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 222 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











