Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 20 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 28 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 18s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,548 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Fri 28th Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here, lookin’ at the next couple of weeks for our patch. Bit of a slow start, so don’t rush out just yet. There’s a gap from now until the first decent-looking surf, so hang tight. We’ve got a mix of clean-up calls and proper swell windows if you’re patient.
The first real sign of life shows up on Sunday the 23rd, but it’s marginal – a 8ft SW swell at 14 seconds with a moderate cross-shore wind. It’s not gonna be perfect, and the tide might play games, so keep expectations low. Monday the 24th is a write-off, with a drop in size and poor conditions. Then we hit Tuesday the 25th – and that’s where it starts to get interesting. Tuesday morning brings clean conditions with a light easterly cross-off breeze and a 6ft SW swell (13 seconds). The combined energy sits at 1095 (moderate energy), and the water’s running at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a nice little surprise. The break itself is Cape Paterson, a beach and reef setup, advanced level. SW is exactly what this spot wants, and Tuesday morning and afternoon both look clean and punchy with very good surf conditions. This is the first standout of the period.
Wednesday the 26th morning keeps the clean run going – 5ft WSW swell (14 seconds), light NW cross-off, and good energy (1095). But the afternoon turns to junk with a cross-shore, so make the most of the early session.
Now, mark your calendar for Friday the 28th. This is the best on offer across the whole outlook. Friday morning delivers a solid 7ft WSW groundswell with a very long 17-second period, light offshore NNE wind at only 6 mph, and clean conditions. The combined energy is pumping at 2581 (strong). This is excellent surf for experienced surfers. The long period means you’ll get proper, powerful waves with good shape, but at this size (over 7ft), it’s for the crew who know what they’re doing. The offshore wind will keep it glassy. Friday afternoon stays strong with a 7ft swell (16 seconds) and light cross-off, still excellent quality.
Saturday the 29th morning has a glassy 5ft swell (14 seconds) with no wind, but there’s light rain around. It’s a decent option but nothing like Friday. After that, the energy slowly winds down into early September. There’s a bit of a lull from Saturday afternoon right through until Tuesday the 1st of September. Tuesday morning the 1st looks promising again – 6ft SW swell (16 seconds), light ENE cross-off, clean, and combined energy at 1696 (moderate to strong). That could be another good session, but it’s further out so we’ll see.
The second week is more sketchy. Wednesday the 2nd is okay but marginal. Thursday the 3rd is a write-off with fresh breezes. Friday the 4th has a short-period 8-second windswell with cross-onshore winds – that’s messy and not worth your time. Saturday the 5th has some long-period SW swell (17 seconds) but with strong offshore NNW winds up to 22 mph, so it’ll be clean but blown flat in the lineup – marginal at best.
All in all, the standout is definitely Friday the 28th – if you can get out, that’s the session. Tuesday the 25th and Tuesday the 1st of September are the other windows to keep an eye on. Stay patient.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Tue morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Tue morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 17 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 19 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
848 | 630 | 1599 | 2481 | 4977 | 3023 | 1950 | 1722 | 1531 | 822 | 838 | 658 | 1011 | 854 | 1468 | 1028 | 700 | 555 | 314 | 239 | 1178 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | ||||||||
6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | |
— | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 17 | — | — | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 19 |
848 | 630 | 1599 | — | — | 3023 | 1950 | 1722 | 1531 | 822 | 838 | 658 | 1011 | 854 | 1468 | 1028 | 700 | 555 | 314 | 239 | 1178 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 19 | WSW 17 | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | SW 17 | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | — | — | WSW 18 | SSW 6 | SSW 5 | SW 15 | SW 13 |
251 | 528 | — | — | — | — | 214 | 389 | — | — | 15 | 32 | 84 | 469 | — | — | 31 | 47 | 14 | 104 | 388 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 22 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | 127 | 103 | 181 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 6 | W 7 | W 7 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | — | NNW 3 | — | — | WSW 3 | SW 6 | SW 5 | — | — | — | — |
176 | 184 | 404 | 2481 | 4977 | — | — | — | — | 16 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 67 | 41 | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 52 | 113 | 113 | 117 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 49 | 5 | 66 | 71 | 44 | 20 | 20 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











