Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Cape Paterson.

Alright, the next couple of days aren’t much to write home about, but there’s a glimmer of hope if you’re patient. The first proper chance to get wet kicks off on Thursday the 9th of July with a solid 4ft SW groundswell, period hanging around 15 seconds, and the wind is glassy out of the south at just 3 mph. The water’s sitting at 58°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year. That combination is going to give you some clean, lined-up waves, especially given the swell energy is moderate (724). It’s a beach and reef setup here, so with that long period, the waves might stand up a bit straight on the beach banks, but the reef sections could be really nice. It’s sheltered from the swell, so don’t expect giant bombs—just fun, rideable stuff. Crowds can turn up sometimes, so keep an eye out.

Friday the 10th is actually the standout of this early window. Morning starts clear with a light cross-off northerly at 6 mph, and the swell lifts to 5ft from the WSW, still that lovely long 15-second period. The energy bumps up to moderate (1069), and conditions look very good. By the afternoon, it goes dead calm with 0 mph wind and glassy conditions, still a 5ft SW swell. That’s about as clean as you’ll get it.

Saturday the 11th starts to fall apart. The swell drops to 4ft, but the wind swings northerly and cranks up to 16 mph in the morning and 25 mph by the afternoon. That’s a no-go—it’ll be messy and blown out. The weekend goes sour from there. Sunday the 12th sees the swell jump to 13ft, but with a near gale blowing 34 mph from the NW, it’s a washing machine. That’s expert-only territory and honestly more for kite surfers than paddle surfing. The energy is strong (4523), but the quality is terrible.

There’s a long gap of poor conditions through the middle of the week, with strong winds and big, messy swell. Monday the 13th has 10ft waves but strong cross-shore winds—just ugly. Tuesday the 14th is cross-onshore and messy with 13ft swell. Not worth it.

The next real window opens up on Thursday the 16th? No, that’s still marginal. Let’s look at Friday the 17th of July. That’s your next proper standout. Morning brings a 6ft SW groundswell, 16-second period, with a gentle cross-off northerly breeze at 9 mph. The energy is moderate (1438). Then the afternoon goes glassy again—WSW breeze at just 3 mph, 5ft SW swell, 15 seconds. That’s going to be clean, lined-up, and fun. Another very good session.

Saturday the 18th is still okay but with a moderate breeze and marginal tide conditions, it’s more of a backup.

Now for the real gem in this forecast—Thursday the 23rd of July. Morning brings a 6ft SW swell with an 18-second period—that’s very long period groundswell. The wind is light cross-shore from the WNW at 3 mph, and the energy is strong (2129). The afternoon is even better: 6ft SW swell, 17-second period, glassy conditions with a light SSE breeze at 3 mph. The energy is strong (2167) and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. That is the pick of the whole outlook. Just remember, with that very long period, it might be a bit straight at the beach banks, but the reef sections will be firing. Crowds are possible.

Then Friday the 24th keeps the run going with a 10ft SW swell in the morning—that’s big, expert-only territory—but with light cross-off winds and clean conditions. The energy is strong (4119). The afternoon sees a 13ft SW swell, but the period drops to 9 seconds, making it a bit short and fat, so the morning is the call there.

Overall, your best bets are Friday the 10th and Thursday the 23rd, with Friday the 17th as a solid backup. Everything else in between is either blown out, too big and messy, or just flat.

Stay safe, and I’ll see you out there.

Rusty

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