Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s see what’s brewing for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. It’s going to be a slow start, so don’t be in a rush.

First up, on Tuesday the 14th of July, we’ve got a massive 15-foot swell from the WSW with a 15-second period, but the wind is screaming from the WSW at 28 mph, putting it right onshore. It’s a total mess with 8354 (very strong wave energy) of raw power. That’s a no-go for paddle surfing—maybe more of a kite session if you’re into that. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef spot, and it’s sheltered from the SW, so this is just ugly.

The next few days are flat or junk. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th have swell in the 7-10 foot range, but the wind is cross or onshore, and the quality is poor. Forget it.

The first glimmer of hope comes on Friday the 17th. The swell drops to around 6 feet from the SW with a very long 16-second period. The morning has a clean offshore wind from the NNW. The combined energy is still a solid 1654 (moderate wave energy). It’s a start.

Now, the real standout. Saturday the 18th of July is your best bet for the first week. The morning has a clean 6-foot WSW swell with a 14-second period, light NNW offshore wind, and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” The energy is 1332 (moderate). The afternoon goes glassy with a 5-foot swell and a light SE breeze, making for some clean, fun waves. The water temp is about 57°, which is pretty average for the time of year, so nothing weird there.

Sunday the 19th is still fun but smaller, with 4-foot waves in the morning and clean conditions, dropping to a glassy 3 feet in the afternoon. Monday the 20th drops right off to 2 feet, not worth the effort.

After a few days of small, weak, or windy surf, the next big highlight shows up for the second week. Thursday the 23rd of July brings a jump in size. The swell hits 8 feet from the WSW with a 14-15 second period, and the wind is light and cross or light cross-onshore from the SSE. The combined energy jumps to 3114 (strong wave energy). This is a proper swell, but at 8 feet it’s for experts only. The morning has a bit of chop, but the afternoon cleans up nicely. It’s a promising, though distant, prospect.

The Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th mornings both look very good. Expect clean 7-foot WSW swells with a 15-second period and light offshore or cross-off winds. The energy is around 1800-1900 (moderate to strong). These are solid, clean waves with good period. The 7-foot range is still a fair size, so it’s for the experienced.

By Sunday the 26th, the swell drops to a more manageable 5 feet from the SW, with a 14-second period and a light offshore NE wind. Clean and fun. Monday the 27th stays in the 5-6 foot range with glassy conditions in the afternoon. A nice way to finish the run.

After that, it fades out again, with poor conditions taking over from Tuesday the 28th. So, for the whole 16-day window, your best bets are the mornings of Saturday the 18th and then Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th. The 18th is the safer, more reliable call, while the 24th and 25th are bigger and more powerful, making them the standout for those who can handle it.

Rusty.

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