Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 7,668 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 5s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 29th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's cookin' at Cape Paterson.
First off, don't even think about paddling out yet. The start of this run is a total disaster. A massive 5.0m WSW swell is slamming in on Wednesday the 29th with howling 45 km/h onshore winds. The combined energy is a monstrous 11000. That's not surf, that's a washing machine. It stays ugly right through Thursday and into Friday with messy, onshore conditions and way too much power.
There's a glimmer on Friday the 31st, with a 1.3m SW swell and a light cross-shore wind, but the call is marginal and the wave energy is weak (473). Saturday the 1st of August is where it finally turns. The morning is clean with a 1.0m SW swell and a light cross-offshore breeze. Then the arvo is the real standout for this stretch: glassy conditions, a 1.5m SW swell with a very long 18-second period, and 1374 moderate energy. For a sheltered spot like Cape Paterson (a beach and reef setup), that long period groundswell will wrap in nicely and offer some proper shape. It's not huge, but it'll be clean and fun, and the light offshore and glassy wind will be a blessing.
Sunday the 2nd stays clean with a 2-1.7m SW swell, but a fresh 30 km/h cross-offshore wind makes it a bit more of a handful. The energy is still solid. Then the wind turns nasty again Monday through Wednesday the 5th, bringing poor conditions and lumpy seas. There's a day of smaller, cleaner surf on Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th, with a 1.3m WSW swell, light winds, and a decent 15-second period, but it's only marginal.
Now, look ahead to the 8th of August. Saturday afternoon has a massive 4.5m WSW swell with a 10-second period and 4259 energy. The call says it's too big for this break. But if you're an expert, keep an eye on Sunday the 9th. The morning is looking excellent: clean with a 4.0m WSW swell, 14-second period, and a huge 5153 energy. The wind is light offshore from the NE. That's a proper big-wave day for experienced surfers only. The break will be handling a lot of water, and the period is long enough to give it some push. That's your second standout.
The following week starts with a clean 1.7m swell on Monday the 10th, but by Tuesday the 11th we're back to stormy junk with onshore winds and 5.0m+ swells. The energy hits 13699. That's a solid no-go for paddle surfing; it's more of a kite day if you're into that sort of punishment.
Bottom line: the best windows are Saturday the 1st of August afternoon for a clean, user-friendly session, and Sunday the 9th of August morning for the experienced crew looking for some size. The rest is either flat, messy, or out of control.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Wed morning, calm by Fri afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the WNW by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 11000 | 7668 | 3469 | 1521 | 1034 | 772 | 455 | 383 | 293 | 264 | 1367 | 1938 | 1523 | 1224 | 974 | 1413 | 669 | 3532 | 1517 | 974 | 467 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | 2:00PM0.73m | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | 7:21AM0.16m | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | |  | |
 | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — |
 | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Feels °C | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | — | WSW 12 | WSW 22 | SW 11 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 1521 | 1034 | 772 | 455 | 383 | 293 | 264 | 1367 | 1938 | 1523 | 1224 | 974 | 1413 | 537 | — | 1517 | 45 | 467 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | W 20 | WSW 6 | — | — | — | — | SW 20 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 18 | 62 | 96 | 249 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 70 | — | — | — | — | 196 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 12 | SW 20 | S 12 | SE 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 99 | 3 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | — | WSW 11 | — |
| kJ | 11000 | 7668 | 3469 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 669 | 3532 | — | 974 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 284 | 346 | 113 | 81 | 54 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 119 | 113 | 126 | 421 | 117 | 117 | 114 | 52 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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