Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 25 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 25 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 30 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, WSW swell with 3,119 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 30 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 30) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Sun 30th Aug)6ft (1.9m) 16s
Best Surf10PM (Sun 30th Aug)6ft (1.9m) 16s
Most Powerful 4PM (Fri 28th Aug)7.5ft (2.3m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut to the chase: this stretch of coast is looking pretty bleak. We’ve got a whole lotta nothing worth paddling out for, and a heap of blown-out, onshore slop. If you’re desperate, there might be a couple of windows, but you’ll need to be patient and lower your expectations.

The first real chance to even think about getting wet is Thursday the 28th. The swell starts to pick up, but it’s rough. Don’t get too hyped. Friday afternoon the 29th looks like a mess with moderate onshore winds.

We finally get a bit of a setup worth a look on Sunday morning, the 31st of August. There’s a solid 6ft of south-west swell rolling in with a long 15-second period, and the combined energy is decent at 1562. The wind is light and cross-shore, coming out of the north-west. It’s not perfect, but it’s the first time things might actually have a bit of shape. Cape Paterson (Bass Coast) will be the spot, but it’s a beach and reef setup that’s sheltered, so it might hold some of that energy. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 57°F, which is notable but not crazy.

Honestly, the standout in this whole sorry run is shaping up for Saturday the 5th of September. That’s the one to circle. The morning looks excellent for experienced surfers. We’re talking 8ft of west-south-west swell with a 15-second period, and the energy reading is strong at 2510. The wind is light, cross-offshore from the north, and the call is clean. This is the real deal. The swell is over 8ft, so this is only for the experts. If you’re not confident, stay on the sand. The afternoon is still okay, but the wind picks up to a moderate cross-off.

The week after that, it’s a write-off. The winds get strong, the surf gets messy, and by Wednesday the 9th, the swell jumps to a thumping 10ft with a huge energy reading of 5516, but it’s all blown out with a strong onshore flow. That’s just a washing machine, not surf. Kite surfers might have a field day, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a no-go.

There’s a few other days where the conditions are “marginal” but the winds are just too cross-onshore or the period is a bit short. The early part of September has a few clean-looking mornings with cross-off winds, like the 2nd and the 4th, but the swell direction is more west-south-west and it’s a little less consistent, so the quality just isn’t there.

So, here’s the plan: keep your eye on Sunday the 31st for a possible average session, but the real prize is the morning of Saturday the 5th. That’s the one. Everything else is about finding a different hobby for a while.

Rusty out.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Tue
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
2
0
0
0
2
1
3
2
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
SW
13
1.7
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
14
1.4
WSW
13
1.4
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1
WSW
12
1.3
WSW
13
2.1
WSW
13
2.3
WSW
17
2
WSW
16
1.7
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
13
1.6
SW
13
1.6
SW
16
1.8
SW
15
1.8
SW
15
1.8
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
734
1142
1028
659
630
421
280
528
1362
3119
2007
1191
874
528
865
1303
1520
1561
1818
1317
Wind (km/h)
10
WSW
25
SW
20
SW
20
SW
10
WSW
15
WNW
10
W
20
NW
15
WNW
15
SW
15
WSW
20
W
20
WSW
15
SW
10
WSW
10
SSW
5
NNW
10
NW
5
SW
20
NNW
Wind State
cross-on
on
on
on
on
cross
cross-on
cross
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-off
cross
on
cross-off
High Tide
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
11:07AM0.63m
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
Low Tide
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
4:07AM0.22m
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
6:59AM0.19m
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:50
6:48
6:47
6:45
6:43
6:41
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
5:52
5:53
 mm
Temp °C
13
13
12
12
11
10
12
11
11
12
11
10
11
11
11
11
11
13
16
15
Feels °C
12
10
7
8
8
7
9
8
8
9
8
6
7
8
9
8
10
11
14
11
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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