Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 4 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 5,265 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 6 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 06) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 04) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 05) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Mon 6th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Wed 8th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Sat 4th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here again. Gotta be honest—this stretch at Cape Paterson is mostly a battle. The water’s a touch warmer than usual at about 58°, but that doesn’t help with the messy conditions.
The first few days are a total loss. Friday July 3rd has a massive 16ft SW swell with a 16-second period, but a strong 25 mph cross-onshore is trashing it—over 11,000 of combined energy. Just ugly. Saturday the 4th keeps the onshore wind and 8–10ft SW swell—no good. Sunday the 5th cleans up a bit with a cross-off from the ESE, swell dropping to 8–8ft from the SW, with a very long 17-second period. That long period can make a beach-and-reef spot like Cape Paterson break straight, so only for experienced surfers. Crowds are possible.
Your best shot is Wednesday July 8th. Morning has clear skies, a light 6 mph cross-off from the ENE, and a clean 5ft SW swell with an 18-second period. Combined energy is strong at 2042. That’s excellent, clean surf for experienced crew. The afternoon holds at 7ft with a 17-second period but with a moderate breeze—morning is the money window.
Then it goes patchy. Thursday the 9th is marginal with 5ft swell. Friday the 10th afternoon goes glassy but small at 4ft. From Saturday the 11th right through to the 16th, it’s a long run of poor surf with onshore winds and lumpy stuff. Sunday the 12th afternoon has a building 8ft WSW swell with 18-second period and over 6000 energy, but it’s cross-off in a fresh breeze—marginal. Monday the 13th is crazy: 16–18ft SW swell with strong onshore winds, energy over 5500–7900. That’s kite-surfing territory.
Finally, Saturday July 18th morning offers a glimmer: light cross-off from the NNW, clean 5ft SW swell with 14-second period, and 1016 energy. It’s rated very good—clean and manageable. Again, crowds possible. So mark Wednesday the 8th morning and Saturday the 18th morning. The rest is a waiting game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Sun afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Fri afternoon, calm by Mon morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fri 3 | Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 11548 | 5265 | 2866 | 2248 | 2830 | 3556 | 2811 | 1513 | 757 | 513 | 308 | 737 | 823 | 881 | 1445 | 2375 | 1486 | 903 | 763 | 894 | 791 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 2:08AM0.63m | 3:03PM0.76m | 2:53AM0.64m | 3:36PM0.77m | 3:36AM0.65m | 4:07PM0.77m | 4:20AM0.66m | 4:39PM0.76m | 5:05AM0.68m | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:35PM0.29m | 8:23AM0.13m | 9:14PM0.26m | 9:02AM0.14m | 9:51PM0.23m | 9:40AM0.16m | 10:25PM0.20m | 10:19AM0.18m | 11:00PM0.17m | 11:00AM0.21m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | |  | | |
 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 |
 | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | 5:10 |
mm | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
Feels °C | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 2830 | 3556 | 2811 | 1513 | 757 | 513 | 308 | 737 | 823 | 881 | 1445 | 2375 | 1486 | 903 | 763 | 894 | 791 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 5 | SE 5 | WSW 19 | ESE 7 | — | ESE 11 | SW 14 | — | — | SE 10 | ESE 13 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 3 | 34 | 5 | — | 13 | 597 | — | — | 4 | 16 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 7 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SSW 7 | SSE 5 | ESE 4 | ESE 5 | NE 3 | — | — | — | — | SW 3 | — | — | SE 3 | E 3 | E 3 | ENE 4 | — |
| kJ | 11548 | 5265 | 2866 | 2248 | 145 | 15 | 26 | 30 | 3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 493 | 117 | 117 | 421 | 227 | 44 | 66 | 49 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 44 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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