Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming up for us.

The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag, with more wind and mess than clean surf. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s something nice when you’re sitting out there.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start. For the first few days, through Wednesday the 26th and into Thursday the 27th, it’s pretty average. Wednesday morning sees a 5ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, but it’s blowing a 12 mph onshore southwesterly, so it’s messy. The energy’s there – moderate at 1075 – but the wind’s ruining it. Thursday morning at Cape Paterson is a bit cleaner with a 4ft WSW swell and a 9 mph cross-offshore NW wind, making for some surfable waves, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Friday the 28th is a bit of a tease. The swell picks up to 6ft in the morning from the WSW, period 13 seconds, but the wind is a moderate cross-onshore WNW at 12 mph, creating chop. The energy jumps up to a strong 2274, but the conditions just aren’t there. Friday afternoon sees an even bigger 8ft swell from the SW at a very long 17 seconds – that’s proper groundswell – but again, onshore wind from the SW spoils it. That 2991 energy reading tells you there’s a lot of power, but it’s messy.

Saturday the 29th through Monday the 31st is more of the same: consistent swell in the 5ft to 6ft range, but cross-onshore winds keep it choppy and poor. Monday morning is the most interesting of this bunch – a 6ft SW swell with a long 15-second period and only a light cross-shore NW wind at 6 mph. The energy is strong at 1615, and the wind is light, but it’s cross-shore, so it’s not perfect. Still, it’s a marginal call.

Tuesday the 1st of September is a write-off. Strong to near-gale winds, up to 25 mph, make it ugly despite a 5ft SW groundswell. Forget it.

Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday the 2nd of September is the pick of the lot. The morning session at Cape Paterson is looking magic. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the WSW with a 15-second period – that’s long-period groundswell, quality stuff – and the wind is glassy, dead still from the ENE at 3 mph. The energy is strong at 1937, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s got size, it’s got period, and it’s glassy. That’s a paddler’s dream. Just be aware, long-period swells like this can line up a bit straight on a beach break, but Cape Pat’s reef and beach setup should handle it alright. Crowds are only “sometimes” there, so you might get a few out, but it won’t be a zoo.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is all wind-ruined. There’s plenty of swell – even some massive 10ft to 12ft stuff from the WSW around the 5th, 6th, and 7th – but the wind is just howling onshore or cross-onshore, making it a complete mess. That 12ft swell on Sunday the 6th with a 16 mph onshore wind is only for the foolhardy. For anyone else, it’s a miss.

Later in the second week, we get another glimpse of hope. Tuesday the 8th of September morning has a 8ft WSW swell with a gentle cross-shore NW wind at 9 mph. It’s still a bit lumpy, but the energy is strong at 2363, and the wave comment says marginal. Wednesday the 9th afternoon is actually looking good again: a 4ft SW swell with a 15-second period, a cross-offshore NW wind at 9 mph, and the comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a smaller, cleaner day for a cruiser session.

But then it all goes wrong again. Thursday the 10th brings a massive 20ft WSW swell with a 13-second period, and the energy reading is off the charts at 11925 – that’s extreme power. But it’s blowing a 12 mph onshore southwesterly, so it’s dangerous and blown out. That’s for the kamikaze crew only.

So to sum it up: the only true standout in this whole 16-day window is Wednesday morning, September 2nd. Get out there if you can. The rest is mostly wind-slammed, though Wednesday the 9th afternoon offers a smaller, cleaner option for a mellow paddle. Don’t hold your breath on the rest.

Rusty.

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