Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 27 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 17s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, WSW swell with 2,987 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Mon 31st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 31st Aug)6ft (1.9m) 17s
Most Powerful 4PM (Fri 28th Aug)7.5ft (2.3m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, grab your wettie, mate. Rusty here. It’s been a bit of a battle for the next couple of weeks down at Cape Paterson, but there are a couple of windows worth circling on the calendar. Let’s break it down.

The start of this stretch is a write-off, to be honest. For the first few days, we’ve got a combination of onshore and cross-onshore winds, choppy conditions, and the wave quality is just poor. It’s not even worth paddling out for the most part. You’re looking at a couple of days of disappointment before things start to clean up.

The first flicker of hope comes on the morning of Friday the 28th of August. We get a pulse of 5.9ft WSW groundswell, but the cross-shore wind is still messy. It’s rated as marginal. The afternoon looks a bit better on paper with a bigger 7.5ft WSW swell and the wind goes light offshore, but the tide and overall conditions are still questionable. It’s not the day to get excited about, but it’s the first sign of life.

The weekend into the start of next week is more of the same – poor conditions with cross-onshore winds and lumpy, choppy surf. The swell hangs around 4.9ft to 6.2ft, but it’s just not clean. The best bet during this stretch is the late afternoon of Monday the 31st of August. The wind drops to a light 6 mph breeze, and the swell is 5.9ft with a nice 15-second period. The energy is moderate (1775), and while the wind is still technically cross-on, it’s light enough that it might clean up a bit. It’s marginal, but it’s the best you’ll get for a few days.

We get one hell of a wind event on the 1st of September with strong cross-offshore breezes, but the swell drops a bit and it’s still all over the shop. The rest of that week is just more fresh, lumpy cross-onshore conditions. The swell does build, getting up around 7.5ft to 8.2ft by the 3rd and 4th of September, but it’s not doing us any favors as the wind is ruining it.

The first real standout comes on Saturday the 5th of September. The swell jumps to a solid 9.8ft from the WSW with a 14-second period, and the energy is pumping hard (5254 to 6419). The morning is still messed up with a fresh cross-shore wind, but the afternoon looks promising. The wind drops to a gentle 9 mph, but it’s still cross-onshore. It’s going to be big, powerful, and a bit rough, but there’s some serious grunt in the water. This is only for the experienced crew.

Now, the real gem. The best surf on offer is the afternoon of Sunday the 6th of September. The swell is still a very solid 6.9ft from the WSW, but we finally get some decent offshore and cross-offshore winds. The morning has a moderate offshore breeze and it’s clean (rating of 3), but the afternoon is where it’s at. With an east cross-offshore wind at 9 mph, the conditions are “clean” and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is your window. This is a proper, clean swell with manageable size. This is the standout.

After that, it goes downhill fast. The 7th of September brings a near gale-force onshore wind and a short-period, wind-whipped swell. Completely blown out. The rest of the week is a mixed bag of lumpy, cross-onshore junk and short-period swell. There’s another interesting window on the morning of Thursday the 10th of September. The wind goes light and variable, the swell picks up to 7.9ft with a very long 16-second period from the SW. The energy is strong (2627). But the commentary is only “marginal.” This long-period groundswell could be breaking too straight at this beach and reef setup. It might be a bit walled, but it’s worth a look if you’re keen.

So, bottom line. Don’t paddle out much for the first week. The 5th of September is for the big-wave chargers only. The clear standout is Sunday the 6th of September in the afternoon, that’s your best chance for a proper, clean session. The 10th of September might offer some clean but tricky, long-period waves. Crowds are sometimes a factor here, so if you get that Sunday afternoon, get in the water early.

Keep it salty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 19°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NW by Tue afternoon).

Thu
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
SW
22
1.2
WSW
13
1.8
WSW
13
2.3
WSW
17
2.1
WSW
16
1.7
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.8
SW
12
1.8
SW
13
1.8
SW
14
1.8
SW
15
1.9
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
1.9
WSW
15
2.3
WSW
14
2.4
WSW
14
2.2
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
151
480
1137
2987
2178
1191
934
623
1112
940
1127
1363
1325
1825
1164
927
1475
2200
2285
1760
Wind (km/h)
15
W
15
NW
25
NW
15
SW
20
WSW
20
W
20
WSW
25
W
20
W
20
W
15
W
15
WNW
10
WSW
20
N
40
NNW
45
NW
25
W
30
W
20
W
25
NW
Wind State
cross-on
cross
cross
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
High Tide
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
Low Tide
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
6:59AM0.19m
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
8:27AM0.18m
8:49PM0.10m
9:07AM0.18m
9:26PM0.06m
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:47
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:41
6:39
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:50
5:51
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:53
5:54
 mm
1
1
Temp °C
12
11
11
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
13
13
18
19
17
13
13
12
Feels °C
10
8
8
9
6
6
7
8
7
8
8
8
12
10
9
9
8
6
8
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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