Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 26 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 26 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, WSW swell with 2,987 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Mon 31st Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 14s
Best Surf 4AM (Mon 31st Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 14s
Most Powerful 4PM (Fri 28th Aug)7.5ft (2.3m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with ya—this stretch for Cape Paterson is a mixed bag, but there’s a real gem hiding in there if you’re patient.

The general pattern is a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind mucking things up, with solid swell energy hanging around for the whole run. Water temp is sittin’ around 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—nice for a winter wetsuit session.

Wednesday the 26th kicks off with a solid 5 ft SW swell and a 14-second period, but that strong southwesterly wind at 12 mph is blowin’ straight onshore. Combined wave energy is cranked at 1075 (moderate)—messy, poor surf, so steer clear.

Thursday the 27th morning drops to 4 ft WSW swell, period 12 seconds, with a NW cross-offshore breeze at 9 mph. Energy’s 454 (weak) and it’s only marginal—maybe a sneaky ride if you’re desperate, but nothin’ to write home about.

Friday the 28th sees the swell punch up to 7 ft WSW, period 13 seconds, with a cross-shore NW wind at 16 mph. Energy jumps to 2310 (moderate). Afternoon gets even bigger at 8 ft WSW and a 17-second period, with light onshore SW wind at 6 mph. Wave energy’s 2987 (strong)—still marginal, but the afternoon’s got more grunt. That said, it’s onshore, so expect some chop.

Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are more of the same: 5 to 6 ft SW swell, periods 12-14 seconds, but winds stay cross-onshore or onshore. Energy’s 935 to 1372 (moderate). Conditions are poor to marginal—keep the board in the car.

Here’s the standout: Monday the 31st afternoon. Glassy conditions with a light SW breeze at 3 mph, swell 6 ft from the SW with a very long 15-second period. Combined energy’s 1313 (moderate). This is the cleanest window in the whole outlook—those long-period lines will wrap in nicely, and with the crowd listed as “sometimes”, you might have it to yourself. Expect good, clean waves. This is your best bet.

Tuesday the 1st of September goes downhill fast—strong NNW winds at 28 mph cross-offshore, swell 5 ft, period 16 seconds, but the wind is howlin’. Energy’s 1074 (moderate). Poor conditions, forget it.

Wednesday the 2nd to Thursday the 3rd stays rough: 6 to 8 ft WSW swell, periods 14-16 seconds, with strong cross or onshore winds. Energy hits 2996 (strong) on Thursday afternoon—big, but lumpy and messy.

Second standout: Friday the 4th. Morning sees 10 ft SW swell with a 17-second period and light onshore SW wind at 6 mph. Energy is 5119 (very strong). Afternoon improves: 10 ft SW swell, 18-second period, still light onshore SW wind, energy at 6126 (very strong). This is big, powerful groundswell—only for experts. That 18-second period means it’ll be bowlin’ at reef and point setups, but at a beach-and-reef spot like Cape Paterson, it might close out. Still, if you’re skilled and can find a channel, it’s a proper session.

Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th taper off: 6 to 7 ft SW swell, periods 13-16 seconds, with cross-shore or cross-onshore winds. Marginal at best.

Monday the 7th through Wednesday the 9th see swell hangin’ around 5 to 8 ft, but winds are strong and onshore—poor. Thursday the 10th finishes with 10 ft WSW swell and 15-16 second period, light winds, but still cross-onshore. Marginal.

So bottom line: if you can only paddle out once, make it Monday the 31st afternoon for the glassy, clean conditions. If you’re a charger, Friday the 4th is your big-wave day, but only for the brave. The rest of the run is a struggle against the wind.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Mon night).

Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
Tuesday
1
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
2
3
2
0
0
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
WSW
14
1.5
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
10
1.3
WSW
13
2
WSW
13
2.3
WSW
17
2
WSW
16
1.8
SW
14
1.5
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
13
1.7
SW
13
1.7
SW
12
1.8
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.7
SW
15
1.7
SW
16
1.5
SW
16
1.4
SW
15
2.1
W
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1028
745
711
421
152
528
1266
2987
1904
1340
874
572
946
888
1273
1147
1212
1492
1074
849
896
Wind (km/h)
20
SW
20
SW
10
WSW
15
NW
10
W
20
NW
25
NW
10
SW
15
WSW
20
WSW
20
WSW
15
WSW
15
W
15
WSW
5
NW
10
NW
5
SW
20
NNW
45
NNW
30
WNW
10
N
Wind State
on
on
on
cross-off
cross-on
cross
cross
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
High Tide
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
11:07AM0.63m
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
2:32PM0.76m
3:06AM0.76m
Low Tide
3:50PM0.40m
4:07AM0.22m
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
6:59AM0.19m
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
8:27AM0.18m
8:49PM0.10m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
part cloud
light rain
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:50
6:48
6:47
6:45
6:43
6:41
6:41
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
5:52
5:53
5:53
 mm
1
Temp °C
12
12
11
11
12
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
12
12
11
13
17
16
19
20
16
Feels °C
7
8
8
8
9
9
8
9
7
7
7
8
9
9
10
11
15
12
11
14
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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