Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 12 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 12 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 13 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,046 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 13 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 13) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Sun 13th Sep)5ft (1.6m) 15s
Best Surf 4AM (Sun 13th Sep)5ft (1.6m) 15s
Most Powerful10PM (Tue 15th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise. The next week and a half is looking like a bit of a nightmare, to be honest. The surf is there, but the wind is going to make Cape Paterson a messy, blown-out mess for most of the run. Don’t get your hopes up for that first week—it’s a waiting game.

It starts this Sunday, the 13th. We’ve got about a 5ft SW swell with a 14-second period and a cross-off breeze. It’s clean, but the energy is weak (763) and the tide’s looking iffy. It’s surfable, but nothing special. Monday and Tuesday are poor—the wind swings onshore and it gets lumpy and chopped. Tuesday afternoon brings a solid 10ft of swell, but with a 40 km/h onshore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. Wednesday is still blown out, and Thursday, while the swell is nearly 7ft, it’s onshore and messy.

Then we hit a proper dry spell. Friday through to the following Sunday (the 20th) is consistently poor. There’s swell, but the wind is cross-shore or cross-onshore, often strong, sometimes near-gale. The sets will be unruly and the surface will be horrible. I wouldn’t bother paddling out for any of it.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The first real standout is the morning of Monday, the 21st. The wind drops to nothing—glass. We’ve got a clean 8ft WSW swell at 13 seconds. This is a proper session for experienced surfers. It’s big enough to have some push, but the glassy conditions will keep it clean. This is your window.

Then, the real gem. The standout of the whole forecast is the morning of Tuesday, the 22nd. The swell jumps to a solid 10ft from the SW, with a long 16-second period. The wind is a light cross-off and the wave energy is cranking (5076). This is the best on offer—powerful, clean, and lined up. Mark it in the calendar.

After that, it’s a bit of a mix. The 23rd still has some juice with a glassy 7ft WSW swell, but it’s a step down. Thursday the 24th brings a very long-period (19 seconds) 8ft SW swell, but the conditions are marginal with the wind. Friday the 25th morning looks clean again with a 5ft SW swell at 16 seconds and glassy conditions—a good option for a smaller, cleaner wave.

But just when you think it’s settling, the long-range forecast throws a curveball. That Sunday the 27th, the swell drops in period and jumps up in size, getting messy again. And then, on the morning of Monday the 28th—which is more than a week away, so treat this as promising but less certain—the model is calling for a massive 15ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period and clean, light offshore wind. The energy reading is huge (10013). That’s a serious, expert-only day. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, and with a long-period swell that size, it’s going to be breaking heavy and fast—definitely not for the faint of heart. That’s the big one on the horizon.

So, to sum up: this week is a loss. Your two real days to get excited about are the 21st and especially the 22nd. Keep an eye on that big one at the end, but don’t book the time off yet. The water temp is pretty average for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Warm (max 23°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Sun night, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Tue night, light winds from the WNW by Fri afternoon).

Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
Wednesday
16
Thursday
17
Friday
18
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
3
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
15
1.4
SW
14
1.3
WSW
15
1.1
SW
15
0.9
WSW
14
0.8
WSW
13
1.6
WSW
6
2.3
SW
13
3
WSW
14
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
15
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
14
1.6
SW
13
1.5
WSW
14
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1103
763
780
489
318
225
148
1703
3448
4812
3695
3491
2830
1752
1201
859
779
1401
1140
Wind (km/h)
15
NNE
20
NNW
20
NNW
10
N
25
NW
20
WSW
30
WSW
30
WSW
40
SW
35
SSW
30
S
20
SSW
20
SSW
15
SW
20
WSW
15
WNW
25
NW
15
WNW
30
NW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
00:41AM0.72m
1:03PM0.74m
1:37AM0.75m
1:46PM0.75m
2:25AM0.78m
2:25PM0.76m
3:08AM0.79m
3:02PM0.76m
3:48AM0.79m
3:38PM0.75m
4:26AM0.77m
4:12PM0.73m
Low Tide
6:52AM0.18m
7:20PM0.13m
7:43AM0.18m
8:04PM0.09m
8:28AM0.18m
8:44PM0.06m
9:08AM0.19m
9:23PM0.06m
9:46AM0.21m
9:59PM0.06m
10:22AM0.23m
10:35PM0.08m
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:22
6:20
6:18
6:18
6:16
6:13
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:05
6:06
6:07
6:07
6:07
6:08
 mm
2
1
2
Temp °C
18
21
23
20
15
14
15
12
11
10
11
11
11
10
10
10
14
18
15
Feels °C
15
16
19
17
11
9
10
4
1
1
5
5
5
6
6
7
8
13
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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