Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with ya – the outlook for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days is a long, frustrating wait for the real goods. The first week is a write-off with big, messy, windy surf, but there’s a serious payoff waiting in the second week if you’re patient.

We start off Sunday the 12th and it’s ugly. A big 13ft to 15ft WSW swell is rolling in but it’s got a 31 mph NW wind smashing it, making for poor, crossed-up conditions. The combined energy is massive (3829), but it’s just not rideable. That same pattern sticks through Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th – still huge, still messy, with the energy peaking at a crazy 13934 on Monday arvo. The water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, the swell starts to drop but it’s still cross-onshore and lumpy. We’re talking 7ft to 6ft SW swell, but the wind is still spoiling it. The energy’s dropping (down to 1407), but it’s still only marginal at best. You’d be wasting your time.

Then things finally turn on Friday the 17th. There’s a 7ft SW swell (period 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell) and the wind goes light and glassy. Friday arvo is a standout – glassy conditions, clean lines, and the energy is still solid (1799). The water is a bit better for the reefs around here, but this will be good quality at the beach and reef setup. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is the first real session.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th back off a bit – 5ft to 3ft, still clean, but the energy is low (down to 494). Good for a longboard or a cruise, but not the highlight.

Now, the real one to circle on your calendar is Saturday the 25th of July. The morning session is the pick of the entire forecast. A 7ft WSW swell, period pushing 17 seconds (very long interval), and a light offshore NE breeze at 6 mph. The combined energy is 2374, and the call is for excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers. This is a big, powerful swell – over 7ft, so it’s for the crew who know what they’re doing. The crowd is listed as “sometimes” here, so you might have a few others on it, but it’s worth it. That Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th keep the quality going with 7ft+ clean, glassy conditions, a solid run of good surf.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a total bust. Don’t bother. The second week, especially Friday the 17th and the standout Saturday the 25th, is where it’s at. Be patient, the wait is worth it.

Rusty.

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