Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 5 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 8,262 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 7ft (2.2m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 7ft (2.2m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's shaping up for Cape Paterson. This is a real mixed bag, and it's gonna take a bit of patience to get the good stuff.
Overall, the forecast is a bit of a heartbreaker at first. We've got plenty of swell energy, but the wind is just wrong for the first week and a half, making it a messy, blown-out affair. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than average for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a touch of warmth in the water.
We start off with a pulse on Sunday the 6th, with a 7ft swell from the WSW at 14 seconds, but it's got a 10 mph wind straight on it. The combined energy is high (2785), but it's all for nothing with that wind. The whole week is basically a write-off; Monday the 7th looks like a total washout with 19 mph winds, and Wednesday the 9th sees a massive 12ft SW swell with a period of 19 seconds, but it's hammered by a 22 mph onshore wind. That's a lot of power (13772 combined energy) going to waste.
The real window opens up on Saturday, September 12th. That's the standout. The morning brings a solid 7ft SW groundswell (16 seconds) with a light 6 mph cross-offshore breeze from the NNW. The combined energy is still pumping at 2107, and the conditions are clean. Then, in the afternoon, it gets even better – the wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the SW, and the swell settles to a still-very-healthy 6ft. This is the time to be in the water. The wave energy is a bit lower (1622), but you won't care when it's glassy. Just keep in mind, this is a beach and reef setup, so that long-period groundswell might wall up a bit straight at the beach, but with clean conditions, it'll be worth it. The break is fairly consistent, but crowds are possible here.
After that golden window, it gets a bit grim again. Sunday the 13th has clean conditions but the swell drops to 4ft, and the wind picks up to 22 mph. The rest of the second week is a mess of strong winds and big, unruly swell. By Monday the 21st, we're looking at a massive 16ft WSW swell (13,949 combined energy) with glassy conditions in the afternoon, but that's for experts only – way too big for the average surfer. It's a long way off, so take that one with a grain of salt.
In short, don't waste your time before the 12th. Mark your calendar for Saturday, September 12th – that's the day Cape Paterson will show its best side.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed morning, light winds from the NW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | SW 7 | SW 8 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1949 | 1759 | 657 | 490 | 617 | 471 | 864 | 874 | 3417 | 5113 | 8262 | 6857 | 5899 | 4158 | 2982 | 1914 | 1889 | 2453 | 2107 | 1622 | 928 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | 11:20AM0.70m | 11:34PM0.68m | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | 4:46AM0.17m | 5:30PM0.25m | 5:53AM0.18m | 6:29PM0.19m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |  | |
 | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — |
 | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | SW 9 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 1949 | 1759 | 657 | 293 | 46 | 471 | 864 | 760 | 1415 | 548 | 5510 | 6857 | 5899 | 4158 | 2982 | 1914 | 1889 | 2453 | 2107 | 1622 | 928 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 8 | SSW 7 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 13 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | SW 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 6 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 176 | 70 | 25 | 42 | 71 | 215 | 628 | 874 | — | 652 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | — | — | SW 22 | — | SW 20 | SSE 5 | SSE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 480 | — | — | 18 | — | 312 | 8 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 7 | — | WSW 6 | SW 7 | SW 8 | — | — | SW 5 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SSW 7 | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | — | — | — | NNW 3 |
| kJ | 180 | — | 124 | 490 | 617 | — | — | 31 | 3417 | 5113 | 8262 | 200 | — | — | — | — | 77 | — | — | — | 3 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 52 | 5 | 54 | 81 | 81 | 45 | 23 | 52 | 419 | 552 | 605 | 113 | 54 | 167 | 54 | 81 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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