Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 25 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 24 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 17s period, WSW swell with 3,262 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 25 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.4m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Tue 25th Aug)4.5ft (1.3m) 13s
Best Surf 1AM (Mon 31st Aug)7ft (2.2m) 18s
Most Powerful 4PM (Fri 28th Aug)8ft (2.4m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the next couple of weeks for our local patch. Let’s be real, it’s a mixed bag on the whole, but there are a couple of absolute gems hiding in there if you’re patient.

First up, Cape Paterson (VIC). This spot is a sheltered beach and reef setup, so it needs the right angle to fire. For the next few days it’s a write-off. We’ve got messy onshore winds and poor conditions through Wednesday and into the weekend. A solid SW groundswell is trying to push in, but the wind just won't play ball. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s not too shabby on that front.

Now, there’s a shift on Monday, August 31st. The morning looks promising with a clean 7ft SW groundswell. The swell energy is moderate to strong (2437), and with a cross-off wind and a 17-second period, this is a proper groundswell. That long period will mean nice, lined-up waves on the reef sections, but expect some waiting between sets. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so get in early.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is on Wednesday, September 2nd. Tuesday morning is a complete no-go with gale-force winds, but just hold on. Wednesday afternoon looks absolutely magic. The wind goes glassy. Flat calm. Clean. You’ll have a solid 7ft SW swell running with a 13-second period. The energy is strong (1504). This is the window. It’s going to be perfect. Get your board ready.

After that, the pattern drops off again with strong winds and messy conditions until another promising window appears on Monday, September 7th. Monday morning looks clean with a waist-to-chest high WSW swell, but it’s the afternoon that has me buzzing. We’re looking at a 10ft WSW groundswell with a 13-second period and a light offshore wind. The combined energy is massive (3980). This is proper, powerful surf. Too big for beginners by far, this is for experienced surfers only. It’ll be a big, clean, open ocean wall. After that, the following days get blown out by strong winds and a massive, unruly swell peaking over 15ft on the 9th, which is just a washing machine.

So, to sum it up: the next few days are a bust. Save your energy for Wednesday afternoon, September 2nd for the glassy perfection, and Monday afternoon, September 7th for the big, raw power. They are the two windows you do not want to miss.

Stay patient, and I’ll see you in the water.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue night, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSE on Tue morning, fresh winds from the WNW by Thu night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
Sunday
30
Monday
31
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
2
4
3
2
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
SW
13
1.5
SW
13
1.6
SW
14
1.6
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
13
1.5
WSW
13
1.4
SW
12
1
WSW
12
1.2
WSW
13
2.1
WSW
13
2.4
WSW
17
2.2
SW
16
1.8
SW
14
1.7
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
20
2.2
SW
18
2.1
SW
17
1.9
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
680
734
1031
1028
837
711
497
280
491
1430
3262
2291
1340
1111
528
604
1491
2955
2437
1806
1235
Wind (km/h)
15
SE
5
SW
25
SW
20
SW
20
WSW
10
WSW
15
WNW
10
WNW
25
NW
20
SW
20
WSW
15
WSW
20
W
20
WSW
15
WSW
15
WNW
15
W
10
NNW
15
NNW
15
WNW
30
NNW
Wind State
cross-off
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
High Tide
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
11:07AM0.63m
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
12:45PM0.69m
00:47AM0.64m
1:23PM0.71m
1:38AM0.69m
1:58PM0.74m
2:23AM0.73m
Low Tide
2:35PM0.40m
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
4:07AM0.22m
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
6:09AM0.20m
6:55PM0.28m
6:59AM0.19m
7:36PM0.22m
7:45AM0.18m
8:13PM0.16m
light rain
cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:50
6:50
6:48
6:47
6:45
6:43
6:41
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
5:52
5:52
5:53
 mm
3
1
Temp °C
12
12
13
12
12
11
10
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
14
18
15
Feels °C
10
11
10
7
7
8
7
9
9
8
7
8
6
6
7
7
7
8
9
14
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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