Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 25 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 31 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 6,124 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson. Honestly, the next week and a half look pretty grim, so we’re really waiting on a couple of windows further out. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The first few days are a write-off. Saturday the 25th through to the end of July have strong to fresh winds that are all onshore or cross-shore, making for lumpy, choppy, messy conditions. We’ve got some swell, but it’s not surfable – the combined wave energy is moderate to strong in the early bits, but with these winds, it’s just not worth paddling out.
There’s a long, quiet gap with no real surf on offer until the first of August. August 1st (Saturday) sees a big jump in swell size to 8 ft to 10 ft, with a very long 18-second period from the SW. That’s a lot of energy, but the wind is moderate cross-shore, so it’ll have a chop on it. The surf is there, but it’s only really interesting for more experienced surfers. Still, the quality is only marginal.
August 2nd (Sunday morning) is looking better with 10 ft of SW swell at 17 seconds, clean faces and cross-off winds from the NNW. That’s clean energy and it’s a standout option for the more advanced crew. It’s big, though, so beginners sit this one out. Monday the 3rd of August is the real standout for the whole outlook. The swell has dropped to a friendlier 6 ft from the SW at 15 seconds, with gentle offshore winds from the NE. That combination gives us gentle offshore, clean conditions, and a solid long-period groundswell. For a spot like Cape Paterson, it’s likely going to offer some nicely shaped, powerful walls. Tuesday the 4th sees the swell drop away fast to under 3 ft, and then it’s back to small, clean but weak leftover pulses for days.
After that, we get a massive spike on the 8th of August (Saturday) with 15 ft to 16 ft of WSW swell, but that’s way too big for Cape Paterson – it’s predicted to be too big to break properly. Even with light clean winds, that’s experts-only territory and even then, it’s risky. Sunday the 9th switches back to strong onshore winds and messy conditions.
So, to sum it up: the first week is poor. There’s a decent window on August 2nd for advanced surfers, but the best bet for a good, clean session in manageable swell is Monday the 3rd of August. That’s the one to mark on the calendar.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Sun night, strong winds from the NNW by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue morning, min 8°C on Tue afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 9 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | WSW 7 | WSW 10 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1476 | 1913 | 1252 | 700 | 584 | 400 | 322 | 311 | 492 | 1815 | 758 | 2259 | 5069 | 2843 | 1387 | 1204 | 748 | 531 | 528 | 859 | 919 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — |
 | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — |
mm | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 8 | 5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | — | — | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | — | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 212 | 240 | 209 | 700 | 584 | 400 | 322 | 311 | 492 | — | — | 487 | 5069 | 2843 | 1387 | — | 748 | 531 | 528 | 859 | 919 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | W 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | SW 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 22 | SW 20 | SW 19 |
| kJ | — | — | 6 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 55 | — | 142 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 73 | 192 | 303 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 11 | E 12 | — | WSW 19 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 3 | — | 329 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 9 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 12 | WSW 7 | WSW 10 | — | — | — | SW 13 | — | WSW 5 | NW 3 | — | WSW 6 |
| kJ | 1476 | 1913 | 1252 | — | — | 3 | 10 | 29 | 103 | 1815 | 758 | 2259 | — | — | — | 1204 | — | 37 | 3 | — | 65 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 41 | 114 | 35 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 227 | 117 | 447 | 244 | 244 | 81 | 81 | 54 | 54 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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