Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 2,245 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag here at Cape Paterson. The first real window of decent surf doesn’t kick in until Friday morning the 17th, so expect a flat spell or very marginal conditions before that. We’ve got a solid pulse of SW groundswell arriving, but the wind and tide are going to be the key players.
Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, sheltered from the SW, and it’s an advanced spot. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.
The first standout is Friday morning, July 17th. The swell is 6ft from the SW with a long 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and with a NNW cross-off breeze, it’s going to be clean. The combined energy is moderate (1672). This is the best on offer early on. The long period means the waves will have good shape and power, but at a beach break it can sometimes be a bit straight. Still, for the advanced crew, this is the call.
Saturday, July 18th is also looking good. The morning has 6ft from the WSW with a 14-second period and a NNW cross-off, again clean. But the real gem is Saturday afternoon. The swell drops slightly to 6ft, the wind goes glassy from the SW, and the energy (1002) is still moderate. That’s about as good as it gets for a clean afternoon session.
After that, the surf drops off quickly. Sunday the 19th has small 4ft waves, and by Monday the 20th it’s tiny and windy. There’s a long gap of poor conditions from the 20th through to the 23rd, with onshore winds and lumpy, choppy seas. Not worth paddling out.
There’s a late pulse of energy around Thursday, July 24th but the conditions are messy. The swell jumps to 8ft on Friday morning the 24th from the WSW with a 15-second period, and the wind is offshore from the SW. That’s a big, powerful swell (2734 energy), but it’s borderline expert-only at 8ft. The afternoon gets even bigger at 12ft, but with a cross-on wind, it’s going to be a bumpy, challenging wave. Not for the faint-hearted.
Sunday, July 26th morning is a good call. The swell is 7ft from the SW, 13-second period, with a NNW cross-off breeze. The energy is solid (1975) and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” A late, promising window for the experienced crew.
After that, the last few days of the month are small and wind-affected, mostly poor or marginal. Nothing to write home about.
So, the standout sessions are Friday morning July 17th and Saturday afternoon July 18th for the best combo of clean, moderate swell and glassy or offshore winds. The late pulse on the 26th morning is also worth a look if you’re keen for a bigger, clean wave.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 9°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2582 | 2245 | 1949 | 2203 | 1994 | 1695 | 1672 | 1715 | 1396 | 1332 | 1002 | 711 | 395 | 283 | 203 | 532 | 229 | 214 | 219 | 538 | 525 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | 3:26PM0.83m | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | 8:55PM0.15m | 9:03AM0.08m | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | | |  | | | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — |
 | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — |
mm | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
Feels °C | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | WSW 11 | W 9 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
| kJ | 2582 | 2245 | 1949 | 2203 | 1994 | 1695 | 1672 | 1715 | 1396 | 1332 | 1002 | 711 | 395 | 283 | 203 | 532 | 161 | 169 | 154 | 538 | 525 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | S 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 12 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SE 10 | ESE 10 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 34 | 47 | 154 | 10 | 229 | 214 | 219 | 4 | 10 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | ESE 10 | SW 18 | ESE 10 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | 60 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 35 | 41 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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