Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 24 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 30 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 31 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 18s period, SW swell with 3,157 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 25 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 18s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Tue 25th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sun 30th Aug) | 6ft (1.8m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Mon 31st Aug) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it for Cape Paterson. The next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows where it'll come alive.
The start of the period is pretty underwhelming for a paddle. The water is sitting at 56°F which is about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's a nice touch, but the waves are just not cooperating. The first few days are a write-off with poor conditions and messy winds. The energy is weak to moderate at best, with readings like 726 (moderate) on Monday the 24th, but the cross-onshore wind just ruins it.
We get a glimmer on Tuesday morning the 25th with a clean, cross-off wind from the east at 12 mph, and a 5ft SW swell. The energy bumps up to 746 (moderate), but it's still a marginal call. The afternoon swings back to a light cross-onshore, so it's not a full day.
Wednesday the 26th is a no-go with strong onshore winds and swell climbing to 6ft, but the energy is up to 1190 (strong) – it's just a mess. Thursday the 27th is a dud, with the swell dropping to 4ft and weak energy (435). Friday the 28th sees a jump in size to 6ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, with a solid 17-second period from the WSW. The energy is very strong (2987 in the arvo), but the wind is a cross-shore, making it a bit of a battle. This is more of a kite surfer's setup than a clean paddle session.
Now for the standout. Monday morning, the 31st of August. This is the one. A 7ft SW swell with a long 18-second period, straight from the optimum direction. The energy is pumping at 2752 (very strong). The wind is light and cross-off from the NW, keeping it clean. This is a powerful, lined-up groundswell. At 7ft, it's pushing into that "experienced only" territory, especially with the juice behind it. The long period will make it break a bit straight at the beach, but the reef sections should handle it beautifully. This is a proper session for the experienced crew.
We then drop off again for a few days. Tuesday the 1st of September has a clean morning but the wind is howling at 19 mph, and the swell is only 5ft. Not great.
Then, Wednesday the 2nd of September morning is another absolute gem. Glassy conditions, an ENE wind at 3 mph, and a 7ft WSW swell. The energy is massive at 2884 (very strong). This is a clean, powerful swell with perfect conditions. At 7ft, it's still big, so it's for the experienced crew, but the glassy surface will make it as good as it gets.
A few days of small, clean swell follow, but it’s not worth a special mention. The energy drops right off to 179 (weak) by Friday the 4th.
Then the long-range looks promising. Saturday the 5th of September morning is another glassy standout. A light NE breeze, a 7ft SW swell with a 17-second period, and energy at 2688 (very strong). This is a big, clean, lined-up groundswell. It's a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but it looks like a proper dawny.
Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th see the swell keep building, with the energy hitting 3705 and 3472 respectively, but the wind picks up from the east, keeping it clean cross-off but solid. By Tuesday the 8th of September, the forecast is calling for a massive 15ft swell with 16-second periods and energy of 9437. That’s a huge, powerful system. The wind is good, but the size is just too big for the break. That one is purely for the big-wave chargers, and even then, it’s a "watch from the carpark" kind of day.
So, to wrap it up: The two standout windows are Monday morning the 31st of August, and Wednesday morning the 2nd of September. The long-range Saturday the 5th of September also looks fantastic. The rest is either small, messy, or too big.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon night, min 9°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu night, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 19 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
527 | 623 | 659 | 1031 | 1143 | 837 | 711 | 497 | 280 | 480 | 1286 | 3119 | 2007 | 1142 | 934 | 572 | 444 | 599 | 2968 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | on | on | cross-on | on | cross | cross | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | |||||||
— | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | |
mm | 7 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 |
527 | 623 | 659 | 1031 | 1143 | 837 | 711 | 497 | 280 | 388 | 1044 | 3119 | 2007 | 1142 | 934 | 572 | 444 | 599 | 2968 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | ESE 5 | — | — | SSW 6 | WSW 15 | SW 22 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | SE 10 | — | — | S 5 | WSW 22 | SW 20 | SW 20 | — |
32 | 123 | 237 | 2 | — | — | 37 | 21 | 118 | 480 | 808 | 4 | — | — | 2 | 45 | 97 | 98 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | — | SSE 4 | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 23 | S 4 | — | ESE 10 | — | — | — | SW 24 | — | SW 16 | WSW 20 | — |
63 | — | 3 | — | — | — | 25 | 51 | 3 | — | 11 | — | — | — | 22 | — | 67 | 75 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 2 | SE 4 | SE 4 | SW 4 | SSW 7 | SSW 6 | — | — | WNW 3 | NW 3 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — | SW 4 | SW 4 | SW 5 | SW 5 |
1 | 16 | 9 | 29 | 64 | 55 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 1286 | — | — | — | — | 20 | 16 | 22 | 37 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 20 | 44 | 81 | 45 | 294 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 81 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











