Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 13 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 13 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 14 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,606 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.4m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 14) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Sat 15th Aug)8ft (2.4m) 15s
Best Surf 7AM (Sat 15th Aug)8ft (2.4m) 15s
Most Powerful 7AM (Fri 14th Aug)10ft (3.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day look at Cape Paterson, and I’m not gonna lie, it’s a real mixed bag. There’s some serious size on the way, but the wind is gonna be a battle for most of it. We’re not looking at a clean start, so we need to wait for the right window.

The water temp is sitting at a pretty standard 57°F for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. Don’t expect a warm one.

The first real standout comes up on Saturday the 15th. After a few days of slop, the morning delivers. We’ve got a solid 7ft groundswell from the SW, and the period is 15 seconds. That’s proper energy (2146 combined energy). Wind is swinging to a glassy S light air at just 3 mph. That’s the magic word: glassy. For an advanced spot like Cape Paterson, this is excellent surf. The sets will be clean, powerful, and lined up, but at 7ft this is for experienced crew only. The break is fairly consistent, but sometimes you’ll have company.

Sunday morning the 16th is your second best call. The swell drops to a still fun 5ft from the SW, but now we’ve got a light offshore breeze from the E at 6 mph. It’s clean and the energy is moderate (1002 combined energy). Perfect for a longer session on a longboard or a fish, and a bit more user-friendly than the day before. This is a decent option for a broader range of surfers.

From Monday the 17th through Thursday the 21st, the swell stays small to mediocre, with heights mostly below 5ft. The winds are cross-off or light, so the conditions are okay for a paddle, but the wave quality is ordinary. Nothing to write home about.

Then it gets wild. From the 22nd onward, we’re looking at a series of strong, messy swells. The wind goes ballistic – think strong to fresh breezes, mostly cross-onshore, and the setups get ugly. The 23rd sees a 13ft SW swell with a short 9-second period, and it’s a total washing machine. The water temp data disappears, but the surf is poor. Honestly, with that much swell and such strong onshore wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

The final few days of the window keep that theme: plenty of size (10ft to 12ft) but the wind is either cross or cross-on, making it lumpy and messy. The combined energy is massive (over 4000 on the 25th and 26th), but without clean wind, it’s just a big, blown-out mess for paddlers.

So, to boil it down: Saturday morning the 15th is the absolute standout – glassy, powerful groundswell for the advanced crew. Sunday morning the 16th is the next best thing, offering clean lines for a wider range of surfers. After that, the window closes hard. Stay tuned, forecasts change.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu night, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
1
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
SW
16
3
WSW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.5
SW
15
2.4
SW
15
2.1
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
1.6
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.5
WSW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.3
WSW
14
1.2
SW
14
0.9
WSW
14
0.8
WSW
14
0.7
SW
15
0.7
WSW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
4073
3871
3340
2906
2457
1994
1446
988
822
811
799
1155
1088
701
581
323
261
217
183
Wind (km/h)
25
WNW
25
WNW
20
WSW
10
WSW
5
S
15
SE
15
ESE
10
ENE
15
ESE
20
ENE
15
E
25
ESE
20
ENE
10
NE
15
ESE
15
NE
15
NNE
25
NNW
25
NW
Wind State
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
High Tide
11:33PM0.69m
12:43PM0.76m
00:44AM0.72m
1:33PM0.78m
1:47AM0.74m
2:17PM0.80m
2:42AM0.76m
2:57PM0.80m
3:31AM0.77m
3:35PM0.80m
4:16AM0.77m
4:11PM0.78m
Low Tide
6:04AM0.09m
6:50PM0.23m
7:05AM0.10m
7:44PM0.17m
7:58AM0.11m
8:33PM0.12m
8:47AM0.13m
9:17PM0.08m
9:31AM0.16m
9:57PM0.06m
10:12AM0.19m
10:36PM0.06m
cloud
light rain
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:05
7:03
7:03
7:01
7:01
6:58
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:38
5:39
5:39
5:40
5:42
5:43
 mm
2
Temp °C
14
12
13
13
12
12
12
13
14
12
14
14
14
16
17
17
17
16
15
Feels °C
8
7
9
8
10
9
9
12
11
8
10
8
11
15
13
12
12
11
10
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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