
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 5 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 13 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 25ft (7.5m), 18s period, WSW swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 25ft (7.5m), 18s period, WSW swell with 33,429 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 7.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 25ft (7.5m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Thu 13th Aug) | 25ft (7.5m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey there, Rusty here. Let’s get through this Cape Paterson forecast. It’s a mixed bag, and I mean *mixed*. There’s a lot of wind and swell, but not a lot of that sweet spot.
Overall, we’re looking at a pattern of strong westerly winds and big, often oversized, groundswells. The water is sitting at about 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year – nothing to write home about. The first week is mostly a right-off for decent paddle surfing. There are two clear windows that look promising, but they’re further out, so take ’em with a grain of salt.
Starting off, Thursday the 6th is tiny – little 2ft swells with a side chop. No go. Friday the 7th bumps up to around 5ft (WSW), but the wind is all over it, keeping it messy. Saturday the 8th is a bit cleaner with a cross-off breeze, but the surf is still only marginal.
Monday the 10th is when the ocean wakes up, but not in a good way. We’re talking a 16ft swell (WSW) with combined energy at 3348. That’s a lot of power, but the wind is screaming onshore at 28 mph. It’s a blown-out mess. The afternoon is a 13ft swell with crazy energy. If you’re a kitesurfer, you’re gonna have a blast. For the rest of us? Forget it.
The week of the 12th to the 15th is just as wild. Huge swells, 13ft up to a massive 21ft on Thursday the 13th, with near gale winds. That’s a survival session, not a fun one.
Now, the good stuff. Skip ahead to Sunday, August 16th. The morning offers a 6ft SW groundswell (15-second period) with light offshore wind from the east. The wave report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the first real standout. The combined energy is 1526 – solid power. This is your best bet for a clean, makeable wave.
Then things look even better heading into the final week. Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th are calling for very good conditions. On the 19th, we’ve got 6ft to 6ft WSW swells (15-16 second periods) and gentle offshore breezes. Clean, lined up, and fun. Thursday the 20th morning has a 6ft swell (16 seconds, 2120 combined energy) with light offshore wind. The afternoon offers a smaller 5ft swell but with a crazy 21-second period – that’s super long-period groundswell, best saved for a point or reef break.
So your play is clear: hold out for Sunday the 16th, then nail Wednesday and Thursday the 19th and 20th. The rest is windblown, oversized, or just plain not happening.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Thu morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu afternoon, calm by Fri afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 26mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue night, min 10°C on Mon night). Mainly near gales. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | W 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
149 | 198 | 621 | 1056 | 1190 | 818 | 1155 | 921 | 785 | 578 | 362 | 759 | 3348 | 9913 | 2766 | 1582 | 971 | 578 | 2023 | 10210 | 11879 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | 6:25AM0.74m | 6:01PM0.75m | 7:21AM0.73m | 6:49PM0.73m | 8:23AM0.72m | 7:46PM0.71m | 9:32AM0.71m | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | 12:12PM0.28m | 00:40AM0.04m | 1:04PM0.31m | 1:35AM0.04m | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | ||||||||
7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | |
— | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 3 |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 12 | SW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | ESE 9 | WSW 17 | SSW 7 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 19 | — | — |
149 | 198 | 621 | 1056 | 1190 | 818 | 1155 | 921 | 785 | 578 | 362 | 759 | 29 | 2164 | 125 | 1582 | 971 | 578 | 2023 | — | — | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 5 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 6 | SW 7 | SW 18 | SW 6 | — | E 5 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | WSW 20 | — | ESE 10 | SSW 8 | WSW 6 | — | WSW 22 | SW 19 | — | — |
18 | 60 | 68 | 40 | 54 | 460 | 1 | — | 2 | 121 | 202 | 726 | — | 10 | 207 | 73 | — | 320 | 1491 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | WSW 20 | SW 14 | — | SW 20 | SW 6 | — | — | — | E 4 | ESE 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 11 | — | — | — |
127 | 38 | 54 | — | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 3 | W 4 | WSW 6 | WSW 7 | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | N 3 | N 3 | NNW 5 | N 4 | WSW 8 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 5 | W 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 12 |
7 | 23 | 249 | 65 | — | 3 | 19 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 27 | 3348 | 9913 | 2766 | 21 | 44 | 119 | 1974 | 10210 | 11879 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 81 | 117 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 119 | 142 | 141 | 421 | 117 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











