Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 30 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 13s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 7,668 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 30 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 13s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s look at what’s coming up at Cape Paterson.
First few days are a total bust. Friday the 24th through Monday the 27th of July – forget it. Strong westerly winds at 25 mph smashing into a 12 ft swell on Friday morning. The wave energy is 6353 (moderate to strong), but with that cross-onshore wind, it’s just a white-knuckle mess. Don’t even think about it.
Tuesday the 28th looks a bit cleaner in the morning with a cross-offshore wind, but it’s still a strong breeze at 28 mph. The swell is 6 ft with a long 12-second period. That’s more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day.
Now, Wednesday the 29th of July, the wind finally drops. Morning shows an 8 ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period and a light offshore breeze. The wave energy is 2885 (moderate). The conditions are marginal, but it’s the first real chance for a wave. Still not the best.
Thursday the 30th is a step up. Morning has a 5 ft SW swell, a 12-second period, and a light cross-offshore wind. The energy is 811 (moderate), and the surf is clean. That’s a decent session for the experienced crew.
But the real standout is Saturday the 1st of August. The morning shows a 5 ft SW swell, a very long 17-second period, and a light cross-offshore breeze. The wave energy is 2076 (moderate), and the forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s a clean, powerful groundswell – perfect for the reef and points if you know what you’re doing. Just be aware, crowds are possible here, and with a long period like that, the beach breaks might be too straight. Stick to the reefs.
Monday the 3rd of August sees a 10 ft SW swell, but it’s onshore and messy. That’s too big for beginners and only for experts. The wind turns light onshore in the afternoon, but the energy is 5219 (strong). Not ideal.
Then Tuesday the 4th of August into Wednesday the 5th looks promising again. Tuesday morning has a 6 ft SW swell with a 13-second period and a light offshore wind. The energy is 1401 (moderate), and the surf is clean. Wednesday morning is glassy – 5 ft SW swell, 14-second period, and no wind. That’s as clean as it gets. The energy is 1097 (moderate). Perfect for a long session.
Thursday the 6th of August is another highlight. Morning has a 7 ft SW swell, a 16-second period, and a light offshore wind. The energy is 2109 (moderate), and the forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The afternoon goes glassy with 6 ft and a 16-second period. That’s a beautiful day for the advanced crew.
Later in the second week, things taper off. Friday the 7th has a small 4 ft swell in the morning with a light offshore, but it drops off by the afternoon. Saturday the 8th is small and cross-onshore – not worth the drive.
The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing wild.
So, overall, the best of the bunch is Saturday the 1st of August morning and Thursday the 6th of August. Get in the water those days.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Thu night, moderate winds from the WNW by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Wed afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 10 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | W 12 | WSW 12 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 3679 | 6353 | 1889 | 1941 | 2679 | 1946 | 1542 | 445 | 959 | 848 | 715 | 692 | 835 | 835 | 1396 | 3042 | 2885 | 2300 | 1435 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | on | on | cross-on | glassy |
High Tide | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | |  |  |  | | | |  |  | |  | | | | |
 | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — |
mm | 3 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | WSW 16 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 16 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
| kJ | — | — | 1889 | 696 | 212 | 244 | 245 | 445 | 26 | 848 | 715 | 692 | 835 | 835 | 611 | — | 2885 | 2300 | 1435 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 17 | — | — | SW 15 | — | — | SW 15 | N 6 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 427 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 10 | SW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 7 | WSW 10 | — | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 12 | WSW 12 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 3679 | 6353 | 899 | 1941 | 2679 | 1946 | 1542 | 265 | 959 | — | 12 | 7 | 13 | 127 | 1396 | 3042 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 117 | 141 | 114 | 117 | 41 | 114 | 52 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 443 | 457 | 105 | 45 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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