Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 12 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, WSW swell with 6,129 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 9 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 14s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 09) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Sun 9th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.
We’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands for the good stuff. The next week or so is looking pretty average, with a whole lot of wind and lumpy conditions mucking things up. But hang in there, because the second half of the period is where we find the real gold.
The best session of the whole run is hands down the morning of Saturday the 15th at Cape Paterson. We're looking at a solid 7ft groundswell out of the southwest, with a period of 15 seconds – that's some proper energy moving in (combined swell energy of 2293). The wind is absolutely glassy, dead calm at just 3 mph from the southeast. That means the surf will be clean, lined up, and looking perfect. Now, 7ft is a bit too much for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is the standout window. It's a beach and reef setup here, so keep an eye on the tide, but with that long period, it should be offering up some great shape. Water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 57°F, which is a nice bonus.
Before we get there, the outlook is pretty bleak. We've got a nasty run from the 10th to the 14th with strong cross-shore winds and big, messy swell. Sunday the 9th is a write-off due to a moderate breeze.
After that killer Saturday morning, the surf drops back a bit, but we get a nice, clean run of waves from the 17th through to the 19th. Mornings will be your best bet with lighter winds and clean conditions. The swell will be smaller, around 4ft to 5ft, with a solid 14-16 second period, making for fun, user-friendly waves that are great for a broader range of surfers. The combined swell energy is moderate, sitting in the 800-900 range.
Later on, the morning of Saturday the 22nd offers a glimmer of hope with a clean 5ft swell, but the wind might be a factor later in the day.
So, to sum it up: the next week is a write-off. Don't bother. Save your energy for the 15th. That Saturday morning at Cape Paterson is the one to circle. Get it while it's glassy.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 35mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Sun night, strong winds from the NNW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Wed morning, light winds from the SE by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 501 | 368 | 557 | 2300 | 1929 | 3784 | 691 | 581 | 1320 | 3458 | 989 | 5590 | 3765 | 3487 | 3162 | 2848 | 3427 | 3021 | 2293 | 1936 | 1619 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | glassy | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:49PM0.73m | 8:23AM0.72m | 7:46PM0.71m | 9:32AM0.71m | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | 12:43PM0.76m | 00:44AM0.72m | 1:33PM0.78m | 1:47AM0.74m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:04PM0.31m | 1:35AM0.04m | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | 6:04AM0.09m | 6:50PM0.23m | 7:05AM0.10m | 7:44PM0.17m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  |  |  | |  | | | |  | | | | | |  | |  | |
 | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — |
 | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — |
mm | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 5 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 19 | SW 17 | ESE 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 8 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 501 | 368 | 499 | 2300 | 1929 | 10 | 691 | 209 | 1320 | 853 | 989 | 1338 | 3765 | 3487 | 3162 | 2848 | 3427 | 3021 | 2293 | 1936 | 1619 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 20 | SE 9 | SE 10 | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 7 | NNW 6 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 121 | 200 | 557 | 22 | 15 | — | 466 | 581 | 59 | 25 | 643 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | — | NNW 4 | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 12 | NW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 1 | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | 60 | 158 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 3 | ENE 3 | ESE 6 | NW 4 | W 5 | SW 16 | WSW 8 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 6 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 79 | 3784 | 494 | 27 | 138 | 3458 | 908 | 5590 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 26 | 20 | 20 | 105 | 41 | 114 | 113 | 119 | 227 | 117 | 141 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 114 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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