Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Well, strap yourselves in because the next couple of weeks are a bit of a rollercoaster. The long-range charts are showing some serious size on the way, but we’re going to have to wade through a whole lot of wind and messy conditions to get to the good stuff. We’re looking at a run that starts with a bit of hope, gets completely blown out by a strong front, and then cleans up for some proper waves right at the end.

First up, this Saturday morning at Cape Paterson is the one to get the board waxed for. It’s a beach and reef set-up that’s pretty sheltered, and it’s firing with a 5ft WSW swell pushing through. The energy is moderate (1217), and the period is a long 16 seconds, which means it’s got plenty of punch. The wind is a light northerly cross-off, keeping it clean. The water temp is 57°F, which is a touch warmer than average for this time of year, so it might not be as freezing as usual. This is easily the pick of the first few days, a real standout for clean, powerful waves, especially for the more experienced crew.

Sunday sees the swell back off a touch to 4ft, but we’ve got a fresh NE offshore wind blowing at 15 mph. It’ll be workable, but not as good as Saturday. The energy drops to a moderate 622, and the period shortens to 14 seconds. It’s still clean, but the magic of Saturday is gone.

Then, the wheels fall off. From Monday the 10th through to Friday the 14th, Cape Paterson gets hammered. We’ve got strong to near-gale force winds, mostly cross-shore or onshore, and the swell turns into a messy, blown-out soup. The wave energy goes through the roof—we’re talking 4010 on Monday arvo, and it just builds from there, hitting a massive 17582 on Thursday morning as the swell peaks over 15ft. That is serious, heavy, and ugly. The period is long but it won’t matter because the wind will have it all chopped up. This is not the time to be out there unless you’re a masochist. Honestly, with that much swell and strong cross-onshore wind, the setup looks way more interesting for the kite surfers than for us paddle surfers.

After that onslaught, the weekend of the 15th and 16th is a transition period. Saturday is still a bit messy with a cross-onshore wind and a 8ft swell; it’s marginal at best. But then, Sunday the 16th brings a serious change. The wind drops to nothing – glassy – and the swell settles back to a clean 6ft. The energy is moderate (1227) and the period is 14 seconds. This is another excellent window; the ocean finally takes a breath.

The new week, from Monday the 17th to Wednesday the 19th, looks like a solid run of clean, rideable waves. The wind is light and offshore or cross-offshore each morning, and we’ve got consistent 5-6ft SW swell with periods around 14-16 seconds. The energy is moderate, and the conditions are clean. This is a good, consistent stretch, but the Sunday just before it and that first Saturday are the real highlights.

Further out, we get another pulse of energy. On Friday the 21st, a week and a half away, the swell jumps back up to 10ft with a 16-second period. The morning is glassy, and the forecast is excellent for experienced surfers. This is a promising long-range standout, but it’s far out, so treat it with a bit of caution. It could be epic, or the wind might swing around. The size will be too much for beginners, that’s for sure.

After that, the forecast suggests a slow fade back down, with clean, smaller waves in the 5-6ft range through the 22nd and 23rd, but nothing that’s going to light the world on fire.

So, my call for the best of the next 16 days: Saturday morning this week for the clean, solid start, and Sunday the 16th for that glassy, perfect post-storm clean-up. The Friday the 21st has the size and potential to be a proper session, but keep one eye on the wind as it gets closer. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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