Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 17 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 18 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 2,997 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 18th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Tue 18th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s going on in our neck of the woods.
First off, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. Cape Paterson (Cape-Patterson) is a sheltered beach and reef setup that only really works when the swell direction and wind line up, and for the vast majority of this 16-day window, they just don’t. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
We’ve got a long gap with no real standouts to speak of. From Monday 17th August right through to Sunday 30th August, the surf is either too small, too messy, or blown out by strong cross-shore and cross-onshore winds. The few sessions that aren’t completely flat are plagued by poor conditions – fresh breezes, lumpy cross-chop, and even some rain showers and thunderstorms in the mix. The swell energy bounces around a fair bit, hitting moderate to strong values (like 1184 on Monday 17th, 2613 on Saturday 22nd, and even 5144 that same afternoon), but the wind is just trashing it. That 8ft swell on Saturday 22nd August afternoon with a WSW direction and 16-second period is a big groundswell, but cross-onshore winds at 22 mph make it a messy, lumpy mess – only for the hardcore experts, and even then it’s not pretty.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel though. The real standout is Monday 31st August morning. The wind goes glassy – light air from the east at 3 mph – and we’ve got a solid 5ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period and a combined energy of 1460. That’s proper clean, glassy conditions. The only catch is that a long-period groundswell from the SW can get a bit roly-poly at a beach-and-reef break like this, but with glassy conditions and that size, it’s your best bet by a long shot. Then Tuesday 1st September morning holds up too: 4ft SW, 17-second period, offshore NE wind at 6 mph – clean and lined up. That 17-second period is a very long groundswell, so expect good shape but long lulls between sets.
If you’re a kiter, some of those strong, windy days with decent swell might be more your thing, but for a surfer, it’s all about waiting for that Monday 31st August morning window.
Stay patient, keep an eye on the forecasts, and I’ll catch you next time.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Tue morning, fresh winds from the NNW by Wed afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 9 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1184 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 229 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 455 | 533 | 762 | 523 | 1083 | 2542 | 2613 | 2911 | 2550 | 1824 | 1422 | 1571 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross |
High Tide | 3:31AM0.77m | 3:35PM0.80m | 4:16AM0.77m | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:17PM0.08m | 9:31AM0.16m | 9:57PM0.06m | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  |  |  |  | | | | |  | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — |
 | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 1184 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 229 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 222 | 533 | 762 | 373 | 1083 | 2542 | 2613 | 2911 | 2550 | 1824 | 1422 | 1571 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | WSW 13 | — | SW 15 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | SW 18 | — |
| kJ | — | — | 88 | — | 127 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 128 | 195 | — | 523 | 541 | — | — | — | — | 128 | 197 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | ESE 5 | — | ESE 4 | — | — | SE 7 | E 7 | SW 17 | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 10 | — | 3 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 138 | — | 251 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 4 | E 4 | E 6 | SE 6 | NE 2 | NNE 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 9 | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | — | — | — | SW 16 | — | NW 3 | — | — |
| kJ | 13 | 10 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 46 | 47 | 455 | — | 14 | 14 | — | — | — | 2233 | — | 1 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 45 | 20 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 49 | 49 | 23 | 113 | 5 | 20 | 52 | 35 | 113 | 114 | 126 | 114 | 52 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | ||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)- Wind Speed (km/h)
FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Cape Paterson surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
Nearest