Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 13 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,672 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Cape Paterson.
Straight up, this is going to be a tough stretch. We're looking at a long run of poor conditions with hardly a window for a decent paddle. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but don't get too excited about that.
For the first week, it's pretty much a write-off. Monday the 14th has a weak 3ft swell (351 combined energy) coming from the WSW, but with cross and cross-on winds, it's going to be choppy and poor. Tuesday the 15th gets real ugly with a strong onshore gale, 10ft to 12ft of messy swell, and 25 mph onshore winds. That's pure junk for a sheltered, advanced spot like this. Wednesday through to the following Monday are all a similar story – plenty of swell energy, but it's all blown out by onshore or cross-shore winds. The conditions are just poor for surfing. By Friday the 18th, the swell drops a bit to 6ft with a long 16-second period, but it's still cross-shore and marginal at best. Honestly, for the first nine days, you’d be better off finding something else to do.
There is a tiny light at the end of the tunnel. On Tuesday the 29th, we finally get a brief moment of glassy conditions. A light NE breeze, 4ft swell from the SW with a 13-second period (548 combined energy) – it's not big, but it will be clean. That’s the standout of the whole forecast, but it’s a long way off and the conditions are very ordinary, so keep your expectations low. The rest of that second week is either blown out or too marginal to get excited about. For a spot that is fairly consistent, this is a grim run.
Signing off, Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Mon afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Thu night, strong winds from the NNW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 13 | W 6 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | W 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 318 | 257 | 110 | 1229 | 4308 | 4904 | 3999 | 3444 | 2307 | 1752 | 1330 | 1116 | 680 | 1438 | 1016 | 820 | 875 | 1401 | 3041 | 3130 | 3446 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 1:46PM0.75m | 2:25AM0.78m | 2:25PM0.76m | 3:08AM0.79m | 3:02PM0.76m | 3:48AM0.79m | 3:38PM0.75m | 4:26AM0.77m | 4:12PM0.73m | 5:03AM0.74m | 4:45PM0.71m | 5:41AM0.71m | 5:20PM0.68m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:04PM0.09m | 8:28AM0.18m | 8:44PM0.06m | 9:08AM0.19m | 9:23PM0.06m | 9:46AM0.21m | 9:59PM0.06m | 10:22AM0.23m | 10:35PM0.08m | 10:57AM0.26m | 11:11PM0.11m | 11:33AM0.29m | 11:49PM0.14m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | |  | |
 | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — |
 | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — |
mm | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 16 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | NNW 5 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 318 | 257 | 108 | 147 | — | — | 3999 | 3444 | 2307 | 1752 | 1330 | 1116 | 680 | 1438 | 1016 | 820 | 875 | 8 | — | — | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | SW 17 | — | — | — | W 20 | WSW 19 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 15 | 36 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 582 | — | — | — | 8 | 37 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — | N 7 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WNW 4 | WSW 6 | W 6 | WSW 8 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | — | SSW 6 | SSW 5 | SW 5 | WSW 6 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 5 | W 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 |
| kJ | 10 | 36 | 110 | 1229 | 4308 | 4904 | 3018 | — | 110 | 46 | 37 | 84 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 71 | 73 | 1401 | 3041 | 3130 | 3446 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 117 | 493 | 820 | 485 | 285 | 81 | 45 | 114 | 52 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 113 | 5 | 105 | 227 | 141 | 126 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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