Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with ya – the next 16 days at Cape Paterson are a tough watch for paddle surfers. This is a sheltered beach and reef setup, and while it can handle a SW swell, the wind and weather just aren’t playing ball. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, but you’ll still want a decent wetsuit.

We’ve got a big gap of no good surf right from the start. Friday the 28th of August afternoon is a bit of a tease – there’s a solid 8ft WSW swell with a very long 17-second period, and the combined energy is pumping at 3119. But the wind is howling onshore from the SW at 9 mph, and the forecast says it’s marginal at best. The wave energy is there, but it’s messy. After that, it’s a barren run right through to the 5th of September – that’s over a week of poor conditions with cross-onshore winds, lumpy chop, and scores staying at zero. The swell hangs around, but with the wind on it, it’s a write-off for surfing.

The only real standout comes on Saturday the 5th of September. The morning shows a 7ft WSW swell with a solid 15-second period, combined energy at 2111, and the wind swings to a cross-off NNW breeze at 25 mph – that’s clean, no question. The afternoon gets even bigger with a 10ft W swell, energy at 3289, and still clean cross-off wind. But look, 10ft is expert territory, and with the period dropping to 14 seconds, it’s still a powerful groundswell that might run a bit straight on the beach. This is a sheltered reef, so it could line up, but it’s for the experienced crew only. The crowds are listed as “sometimes” here, so you might get a few others out, but it’ll be manageable.

After that, the forecast gets ugly again. Sunday the 6th of September is a write-off with near gale-force winds, and the rest of the week is a mix of onshore wind and lumpy conditions. There’s a slightly promising look on Friday the 11th of September – a 8ft SW swell with a massive 19-second period, energy at 4534 – but the wind is cross-onshore, and it’s only rated marginal. The long period means it’s deep and powerful, but with that wind, it’s a maybe.

Honestly, this stretch is more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddle board. The swell is big and the wind is strong, but for clean waves, you’re looking at that one window on the 5th of September. If you’re an expert and you can handle the size, that’s your best bet. Otherwise, wait for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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