Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 5,557 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming up for our stretch of coast at Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. It's going to be a bit of a mixed bag, with some real solid swell showing up, but the wind is going to be the main character in this story, and it's not always going to be a nice one.
We're starting out with some proper size on the cards. The weekend kicks off with a big pulse of swell from the WSW, with 13-foot waves on Saturday morning. But honestly, it's a write-off with a strong 25 mph westerly howling straight across it. The combined energy is massive, reading 2844 (moderate to strong), but it's messy. Sunday morning (23rd) drops to a cleaner 8-foot on the face of it, with a light NW cross-shore. The combined energy is still a solid 2193 (moderate to strong), and the period is a nice 14 seconds from the SW. It's a bit tricky, but there's a window there for someone who knows the break.
Honestly, the first week or so is all about waiting for the right moment. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year, so that's a little bonus. The pick of the whole fortnight, the standout you want to mark in your calendar, looks to be Friday morning, September 4th. We’ve got a clean 8-foot SW groundswell rolling in with a 16-second period and, crucially, a moderate NNE offshore wind. The combined energy is strong at 2844 (moderate to strong), and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. This is the one to keep an eye on. Nearly 8-foot is solid, expert territory, but with offshore winds on a long-period swell from the SW, the reef and bank setup here could be absolutely cranking.
Before that, Monday morning (August 31st) also has some potential, with a 7-foot SW swell and a 17-second period, but the cross-shore wind isn't as favourable. Later in the second week, Thursday morning (September 3rd) sees a hefty 8-foot SW swell (combined energy of 2684), but the wind is cross-shore again, making it less of a sure thing than that Friday morning.
Right, that’s the picture. It’s a waiting game for a clean day on a solid swell. That Friday 4th September morning is your best bet – get it while the wind is kind. Stay stoked.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the NE by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Tue night, calm by Wed night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 17 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 19 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 722 | 3730 | 2844 | 4737 | 3192 | 1979 | 1748 | 1531 | 822 | 711 | 567 | 821 | 757 | 1142 | 921 | 711 | 555 | 243 | 199 | 1519 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — |
 | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — |
mm | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | SW 17 | — | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | SW 19 |
| kJ | 722 | 1061 | — | — | 3192 | 1979 | 1748 | 1531 | 822 | 711 | 567 | 821 | 757 | 1142 | 921 | 711 | 555 | 243 | 199 | 1519 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 17 | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 19 | WSW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 13 |
| kJ | 528 | — | — | — | — | 214 | — | — | — | — | 32 | 51 | 240 | — | 37 | 62 | 127 | 104 | 102 | 546 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | NNW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | WSW 22 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 193 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | WSW 17 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NE 2 | E 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | — | SSW 3 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 166 | 3730 | 2844 | 4737 | — | — | — | — | 11 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 52 | 113 | 117 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 117 | 114 | 117 | 167 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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