Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 25 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 23 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 13s period, SW swell with 3,555 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 13s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Sat 25th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Thu 23rd Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Hey gang, Rusty here. Cape Paterson’s 16-day outlook is a tough one – lots of nasty wind and lumpy swell through the first week and a half. But there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s worth waiting for.
First up, Sunday the 19th gives you a small clean wave: 3.6ft SW swell at 13 seconds, light north wind, cross-off. Combined energy is moderate (466). Water temp is 56.8°, pretty normal. It’s surfable but nothing to write home about. Crowds are possible.
Then it gets ugly. From Monday the 20th through Thursday the 24th, wind from the NW and WSW at 15–22 mph, with swell building to 9.8ft and short period (8–14 seconds). Combined energy runs from 880 to 3894 – strong to very strong. But with onshore wind and chop, it’s more of a kite session than a paddle session. Friday the 24th is particularly nasty: 9.8ft, 14-second swell, fresh cross-onshore wind, lumpy.
Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are marginal: swell drops to 7.5ft then 5.2ft, but wind stays strong cross-shore, creating chop
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | W 7 | WSW 8 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1210 | 1018 | 722 | 402 | 283 | 161 | 627 | 229 | 268 | 982 | 824 | 534 | 341 | 848 | 1735 | 3201 | 3555 | 2886 | 1945 | 1559 | 1133 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | 3:26PM0.83m | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:55PM0.15m | 9:03AM0.08m | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | | | | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — |
 | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | W 10 | WSW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | E 10 | — | — | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 |
| kJ | 1210 | 1018 | 722 | 402 | 283 | 161 | 627 | 212 | 101 | 982 | 824 | 534 | 222 | 2 | — | — | — | 2886 | 1945 | 1559 | 1133 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | W 6 | N 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 13 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 48 | 47 | 154 | 10 | 229 | 268 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 511 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | WSW 12 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 16 | 60 | 29 | 10 | 14 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | NW 2 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | W 7 | WSW 8 | SW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 31 | 341 | 848 | 1735 | 3201 | 3555 | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 | 113 | 117 | 117 | 81 | 81 | 54 | 5 | 23 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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