Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 pm 06 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 6 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 9,050 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 4AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Tue 8th Sep)5ft (1.6m) 12s
Best Surf 7AM (Tue 8th Sep)5ft (1.6m) 12s
Most Powerful 1PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what Cape Paterson’s got coming for us over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’ve got a lot of wind and messy conditions in the first week, but there’s a real gem hiding in there for the weekend.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing too wild.

We kick off Monday the 7th with rain and a strong SSW wind blowing straight onshore at 35 km/h. The swell’s 8ft from the SW with a short period of 7 seconds. It’s poor, with combined swell energy of (572). Not worth paddling out.

Tuesday the 8th sees the swell drop to 5ft in the morning, period stretching to 13 seconds, but it’s cross-on from the WNW at 15 km/h, leaving it choppy. Energy is up to (1351), but the conditions are marginal at best. Afternoon gets worse with 4ft and a 17-second period, but the cross-on wind picks up to 20 km/h. Still poor.

Wednesday the 9th brings a big jump – 12ft from the SW with a 16-second period, but the wind is howling onshore at 35 km/h. Combined energy hits (7139), but it’s a total mess. Afternoon’s no better – 12ft, 18-second period, wind screaming from the SW at 40 km/h, energy of (8602). This is expert-only territory if you’re even thinking about it, but honestly, it’s blown out. More of a kite surfing day than anything else.

Thursday the 10th holds onto 10ft from the SW with a 17-second period. Morning is cross-on at 20 km/h and choppy, energy of (5019). Afternoon’s still onshore, still poor.

Friday the 11th, the swell drops to 7ft, period 15 seconds, but the wind’s still onshore. Energy’s at (1660). Not great.

Now, Saturday the 12th – this is the standout. The morning has 6ft from the SW with a 16-second period, but the wind is light cross-off from the NNW at just 5 km/h, leaving it clean. Combined swell energy of (1622). Then the afternoon turns glassy with the wind swinging SE at 5 km/h, the swell at 6ft, period 15 seconds, energy of (1323). This is the best on offer, no question. Expect clean, well-shaped waves, and with the long period, the sets will be well-spaced. Cape Paterson’s a beach and reef setup, so the longer period swell should wrap in nicely, though it might be a bit straight for the beach break sections. Still, this is the one to target.

Sunday the 13th, the swell drops to 4ft, period 14 seconds, but the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-off from the NNW. It’s clean but the energy’s down to (679). Poor conditions for the size.

Monday the 14th, we get a messy NW windswell of 6ft with a pathetic 6-second period, and strong cross-shore wind at 45 km/h. Energy’s (612). Total write-off. Afternoon’s worse with 10ft, 8-second period, and a near gale from the W.

The second week stays messy. Tuesday the 15th, 12ft from the SW, 13-second period, but cross-on wind at 25 km/h, energy of (3912). Wednesday the 16th, 8ft, 14-second period, fresh cross-on wind, energy of (2726). Thursday the 17th, 7ft, 13-second period, cross-shore wind, energy of (1444). Friday the 18th, a massive 15ft from the WSW with a 10-second period, but near gale force winds. Energy’s (3951) – expert only and blown out. Saturday the 19th, 6ft, 12-second period, strong cross-shore wind, energy of (1037). Sunday the 20th, 6ft, 14-second period, near gale onshore wind, energy of (1449).

Finally, Monday the 22nd of September morning shapes up nicely. The swell’s 7ft from the WSW with a very long 17-second period, and the wind is light cross-off from the north at 5 km/h. Clean conditions, combined energy of (2709). This is another one to keep an eye on – excellent conditions for experienced surfers, with well-shaped, powerful waves. The long period will work well for the reef and points, just be mindful of the paddle-out between sets.

So, to sum it up: Saturday the 12th is the clear winner, with glassy conditions and a solid SW swell. Monday the 22nd is also promising, but it’s a week and a half away, so don’t lock it in just yet. Everything else is wind-affected or too big for comfort.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun night, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SW on Mon night, fresh winds from the SW by Wed afternoon).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed night, calm by Sat morning).

Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
3
3
3
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.4
WSW
12
2.3
SW
7
2.3
SW
8
1.6
SW
9
1.5
SW
13
1.2
SW
17
2.5
WSW
16
3.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
18
3
SW
18
3
SW
17
3
SW
16
2.2
SW
16
2
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
2
SW
16
1.8
SW
16
1.7
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
618
481
582
396
723
874
3196
5179
8602
5921
5019
3888
2322
1647
1542
1880
1622
1323
966
Wind (km/h)
30
W
35
SSW
30
SSW
15
SW
15
WNW
20
W
35
WSW
35
SSW
40
SW
30
SW
20
WSW
20
WSW
20
WSW
20
WSW
15
SW
5
NW
5
NNW
5
SE
15
N
Wind State
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
on
on
glassy
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
6:58AM0.73m
6:32PM0.72m
7:59AM0.70m
7:34PM0.69m
9:07AM0.69m
8:50PM0.66m
10:16AM0.68m
10:15PM0.66m
11:20AM0.70m
11:34PM0.68m
12:15PM0.72m
00:41AM0.72m
Low Tide
00:19AM0.04m
12:45PM0.30m
1:15AM0.07m
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
3:00PM0.33m
3:32AM0.15m
4:19PM0.30m
4:46AM0.17m
5:30PM0.25m
5:53AM0.18m
6:29PM0.19m
cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:31
6:30
6:28
6:26
6:26
6:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:02
6:04
 mm
1
1
Temp °C
13
12
11
10
10
11
12
11
11
12
11
12
11
10
10
9
13
17
16
Feels °C
7
4
4
6
6
7
4
2
2
4
7
8
7
6
7
8
11
14
12
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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