Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 24 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 18s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 17s period, WSW swell with 3,262 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 25 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.4m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Tue 25th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 31st Aug) | 7ft (2.2m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the next couple of weeks for our local patch. Let’s be real, it’s a mixed bag on the whole, but there are a couple of absolute gems hiding in there if you’re patient.
First up, Cape Paterson (VIC). This spot is a sheltered beach and reef setup, so it needs the right angle to fire. For the next few days it’s a write-off. We’ve got messy onshore winds and poor conditions through Wednesday and into the weekend. A solid SW groundswell is trying to push in, but the wind just won't play ball. The water temp is sitting at 56°, which is about 2° warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s not too shabby on that front.
Now, there’s a shift on Monday, August 31st. The morning looks promising with a clean 7ft SW groundswell. The swell energy is moderate to strong (2437), and with a cross-off wind and a 17-second period, this is a proper groundswell. That long period will mean nice, lined-up waves on the reef sections, but expect some waiting between sets. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so get in early.
The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is on Wednesday, September 2nd. Tuesday morning is a complete no-go with gale-force winds, but just hold on. Wednesday afternoon looks absolutely magic. The wind goes glassy. Flat calm. Clean. You’ll have a solid 7ft SW swell running with a 13-second period. The energy is strong (1504). This is the window. It’s going to be perfect. Get your board ready.
After that, the pattern drops off again with strong winds and messy conditions until another promising window appears on Monday, September 7th. Monday morning looks clean with a waist-to-chest high WSW swell, but it’s the afternoon that has me buzzing. We’re looking at a 10ft WSW groundswell with a 13-second period and a light offshore wind. The combined energy is massive (3980). This is proper, powerful surf. Too big for beginners by far, this is for experienced surfers only. It’ll be a big, clean, open ocean wall. After that, the following days get blown out by strong winds and a massive, unruly swell peaking over 15ft on the 9th, which is just a washing machine.
So, to sum it up: the next few days are a bust. Save your energy for Wednesday afternoon, September 2nd for the glassy perfection, and Monday afternoon, September 7th for the big, raw power. They are the two windows you do not want to miss.
Stay patient, and I’ll see you in the water.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue night, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSE on Tue morning, fresh winds from the WNW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri morning, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 680 | 734 | 1031 | 1028 | 837 | 711 | 497 | 280 | 491 | 1430 | 3262 | 2291 | 1340 | 1111 | 528 | 604 | 1491 | 2955 | 2437 | 1806 | 1235 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | 1:58PM0.74m | 2:23AM0.73m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | 7:45AM0.18m | 8:13PM0.16m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — |
 | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — |
mm | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 15 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 18 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
| kJ | 680 | 734 | 1031 | 1028 | 837 | 711 | 497 | 280 | 491 | 1056 | 3262 | 2291 | 1340 | 1111 | 528 | 604 | 677 | 2955 | 2437 | 1806 | 1235 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | SSW 6 | WSW 15 | SSW 4 | WSW 19 | ESE 10 | SE 10 | — | — | W 24 | WSW 22 | SW 5 | SW 20 | SW 5 | — | SW 4 | — |
| kJ | 123 | 237 | — | — | — | 57 | 21 | 6 | 480 | 11 | 4 | — | — | 11 | 45 | 28 | 1491 | 19 | — | 4 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 23 | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 25 | 51 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 102 | 285 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 3 | — | WSW 4 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | — | — | W 3 | W 9 | WSW 13 | — | — | — | SW 5 | SW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 |
| kJ | 4 | — | 35 | 70 | 57 | — | — | 3 | 76 | 1430 | — | — | — | 24 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 41 | 81 | 45 | 81 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 41 | 5 | 54 | 346 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 105 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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