Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 22 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 15 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 14s period, SW swell with 5,634 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 22 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 22) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 22nd Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Tue 22nd Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast for the Cape Paterson area is a bit of a test of patience. We’ve got a 16-day window here, but the first week is pretty much a write-off. The winds are relentless, the swell is messy, and you won’t want to bother paddling out until at least the 22nd.
The early days, from the 15th through to the 21st, are just brutal. We’re looking at a massive amount of energy – on the 15th afternoon we’ve got combined energy hitting 4440 – but it’s all blown out. Strong onshore winds, steep and short-period swell at times, and just a general mess. A few sessions might look okay on paper with 8ft swell, but the wind is never your friend. On the 20th morning, we get a glimpse of clean conditions with a cross-off breeze, but the swell is tiny at 4ft and the energy is weak (394). It’s not worth getting wet for.
Things start to shift around the 22nd of September. That Tuesday morning we’ve got a solid 8ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period, clean conditions with a light cross-off breeze from the east, and moderate wave energy (3233). This is a standout day. That long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely at Cape Paterson (a sheltered beach and reef setup), but remember, long-period stuff can get a bit straight at the beach breaks – it favours the reefs here. For the experienced surfer, this is your window. The wind stays favourable through the afternoon as well.
Then there’s a real gem on the 29th of September (Tuesday). The morning session looks excellent for experienced surfers. We’ve got a clean 7ft SW swell (16-second period), a light cross-off breeze from the east-southeast, and good energy (2537). The water temperature is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s not too bad once you’re in.
The 30th (Wednesday morning) is also worth a look – a clean 5ft SW groundswell with a light breeze. It won’t be as punchy, but it’ll be clean and fun.
Overall, the first week is a write-off. Don’t bother. Your two best windows are the 22nd and the 29th. Those are the days to keep an eye on. The crowds at Cape Paterson can pop up sometimes, so if it’s looking good, get in early.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Sun night. Warm (max 22°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Sat afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 6 | WSW 8 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 778 | 4440 | 5087 | 3695 | 3286 | 2146 | 1554 | 961 | 938 | 951 | 1571 | 1203 | 1151 | 1266 | 669 | 359 | 262 | 709 | 1278 | 1193 | 2814 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 2:25PM0.76m | 3:08AM0.79m | 3:02PM0.76m | 3:48AM0.79m | 3:38PM0.75m | 4:26AM0.77m | 4:12PM0.73m | 5:03AM0.74m | 4:45PM0.71m | 5:41AM0.71m | 5:20PM0.68m | 6:22AM0.68m | 5:57PM0.65m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:44PM0.06m | 9:08AM0.19m | 9:23PM0.06m | 9:46AM0.21m | 9:59PM0.06m | 10:22AM0.23m | 10:35PM0.08m | 10:57AM0.26m | 11:11PM0.11m | 11:33AM0.29m | 11:49PM0.14m | 12:12PM0.32m | 00:30AM0.18m | ||||||||
 | |  |  |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | |  | | |  | |
 | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — |
 | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — |
mm | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 22 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
Feels °C | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | — | — | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | — | WSW 15 | — | — | SW 15 |
| kJ | 149 | — | — | 3695 | 3286 | 2146 | 1554 | 961 | 938 | 951 | 1571 | 1203 | 1151 | 1266 | 669 | 359 | — | 89 | — | — | 2814 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 6 | SW 18 | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 95 | 510 | — | — | — | 15 | 33 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 7 | WSW 13 | SW 14 | SSE 6 | — | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | SW 6 | — | WNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 5 | NNW 5 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 6 | WSW 8 | SW 11 | SW 11 | — |
| kJ | 778 | 4440 | 5087 | 42 | — | 91 | 49 | 77 | — | 23 | 9 | 45 | 47 | 12 | 16 | 134 | 262 | 709 | 1278 | 1193 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 421 | 820 | 244 | 81 | 81 | 45 | 114 | 126 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 105 | 113 | 23 | 23 | 105 | 167 | 35 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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