Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 12 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 5,570 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 12th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, this is Rusty. Lookin at the forecast for Cape Paterson, and I gotta be straight with ya – it's a tough start. The first week is basically a write-off with strong, onshore winds and lumpy, dangerous conditions. We're lookin at a bit of a wait.
The first real chance at a wave comes on Monday, the 18th of August. Dawn patrol is the move. The wind is set to go light offshore from the NE, near glassy (5 km/h), with a clean 4.3ft of SSW groundswell. The combined energy is moderate at 853, so there's some push. It's a sheltered spot anyway, so it cleans up quick. This is the window for a sneaky session on the reef or banks, but don't expect much more than that.
The real standout, the one you need to mark on the calendar, is a week later – Tuesday, the 25th of August. Early morning is looking excellent for experienced surfers. We've got a clean 9.8ft of WSW groundswell, period is a solid 13 seconds, and the wind is light offshore from the north. This is proper groundswell with serious energy (2846). That southwest direction is exactly what this place wants. With that size and power, it’s a big day, though – definitely for the experienced crew only. It'll be well overhead and pushing hard on the reef.
The day before, Monday the 24th, also has 9.8ft of groundswell and perfect light offshore winds in the morning, but the period is a shorter 10 seconds and there's a bit of a cross-chop developing in the afternoon. Tuesday morning is the cleaner, more powerful option.
The long-range swell that hits on the 24th and 25th is the only real pulse to get excited about; the rest of the second week drops off quickly with smaller, choppier conditions. Make the most of that Tuesday the 25th morning session.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Wed morning, light winds from the S by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4053 | 989 | 4915 | 4883 | 4881 | 3970 | 3644 | 3137 | 2944 | 2338 | 2021 | 1446 | 1203 | 988 | 799 | 811 | 993 | 1074 | 691 | 644 | 282 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | 12:43PM0.76m | 00:44AM0.72m | 1:33PM0.78m | 1:47AM0.74m | 2:17PM0.80m | 2:42AM0.76m | 2:57PM0.80m | 3:31AM0.77m | 3:35PM0.80m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | 6:04AM0.09m | 6:50PM0.23m | 7:05AM0.10m | 7:44PM0.17m | 7:58AM0.11m | 8:33PM0.12m | 8:47AM0.13m | 9:17PM0.08m | 9:31AM0.16m | 9:57PM0.06m | ||||||||
 | |  | |  |  | | | | | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | |
 | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — |
 | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — |
mm | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
Feels °C | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 |
| kJ | 966 | 989 | — | 4883 | 4258 | 3970 | 3644 | 3137 | 2944 | 2338 | 2021 | 1446 | 1203 | 988 | 799 | 811 | 993 | 1074 | 691 | 644 | 282 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | ESE 4 | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | ESE 6 | SW 16 |
| kJ | — | 643 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 162 | 14 | 127 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 6 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | E 4 | — | SE 6 | E 4 |
| kJ | 4053 | 804 | 4915 | — | 4881 | 3852 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 13 | — | 6 | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 54 | 114 | 114 | 52 | 35 | 54 | 114 | 5 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 20 | 44 | 20 | 20 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 38 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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