Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 03 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 12s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 9,093 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 12s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Tue 8th Sep)6ft (1.9m) 12s
Best Surf 4AM (Tue 8th Sep)6ft (1.9m) 12s
Most Powerful10PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest from the get-go: it’s a rough patch. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle, with a whole lot of onshore or cross-shore wind and messy conditions. But there are a few moments where it might clean up enough for a paddle.

The water’s sitting at 57°F right now, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s about it for the good news.

We’ve got solid, powerful swell showing up straight away. Thursday the 3rd is pumping with 12ft to 13ft of WSW swell, but with a strong 25 mph W to WSW cross-onshore blow, it’s just a washing machine out there. Combined swell energy is massive at 4904, but it’s all for nothing with that wind. Not a wave worth paddling for.

That theme of big swell with bad wind carries through the weekend. Friday the 4th has 10ft of WSW groundswell at a long 16 seconds, but it’s cross-shore with a moderate breeze. The waves will have shape, but it’s a bit of a chop fest. Still, it’s the best of a bad lot early on. Saturday the 5th gets ugly with a near gale ripping, and Sunday the 6th is still messy with cross-onshore winds and 8ft of swell.

The first real spark of hope isn’t until Saturday the 12th. We finally get a clean window. The wind swings NNW, going cross-offshore, and we’ve got a solid 5ft to 5ft of long-period SW groundswell (15 seconds). The combined energy is moderate at around 1033 to 1219, but clean conditions make all the difference. This is the standout period of the whole outlook. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, and with that long period, expect good shaped waves, decent gaps between sets, and an easier paddle out. Crowds are possible here, but on a Saturday morning with clean conditions, you might have to share.

After that, Sunday the 13th starts clean again with NNW cross-off winds, but the swell drops a bit to 4ft in the morning. The afternoon picks up to 7ft, but the wind picks up too, a fresh 22 mph, making it a bit lumpy.

The second week is a real mixed bag. The clean cross-off conditions pop up again on Wednesday the 16th morning with 6ft of SW swell, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph, so it won’t be perfect. Then the 17th and 18th are a write-off with a massive 18ft swell on Thursday the 17th, but 28 mph cross-shore winds make it unsurfable and more of a kiting setup than a paddle zone at a beach and reef spot like this.

Honestly, there’s no day here that’s a total cracker. The best you’re going to get is Saturday the 12th and maybe the morning of Sunday the 13th. Keep an eye on the forecasts closer to the day, as things can change. For now, if you’re keen, pencil in that second Saturday for a shot at some clean, long-period groundswell.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Fri night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, fresh winds from the SW by Tue night).

Thu
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
1
1
2
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
4
WSW
8
3.5
WSW
9
2.4
SW
14
2.1
WSW
13
1.9
WSW
12
1.2
WSW
11
0.9
WSW
11
1.7
WSW
8
1.8
SW
13
1.4
SW
17
1.7
WSW
16
2.5
SW
16
3
SW
17
3.5
SW
19
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
5921
5594
4963
4213
3158
1987
2040
2184
2356
1493
1033
347
200
433
1018
1073
1356
3172
4652
8022
Wind (km/h)
40
WSW
30
WNW
25
NW
15
WNW
25
N
45
NNW
45
W
40
W
20
W
15
W
25
W
25
WSW
30
SSW
10
S
10
WNW
15
WSW
30
WSW
30
SW
30
SW
25
SSW
Wind State
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
High Tide
4:32AM0.80m
4:18PM0.78m
5:16AM0.79m
4:57PM0.77m
6:05AM0.77m
5:41PM0.75m
6:58AM0.73m
6:32PM0.72m
7:59AM0.70m
7:34PM0.69m
9:07AM0.69m
8:50PM0.66m
Low Tide
10:04PM0.03m
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
11:08AM0.24m
11:30PM0.02m
11:54AM0.27m
00:19AM0.04m
12:45PM0.30m
1:15AM0.07m
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
3:00PM0.33m
3:32AM0.15m
clear
part cloud
clear
cloud
mod rain
light rain
thunderstorm
rain showers
cloud
clear
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:35
6:35
6:33
6:31
6:30
6:28
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:55
5:57
5:58
5:59
6:00
6:00
6:00
 mm
6
4
3
2
1
1
Temp °C
12
12
13
14
15
15
13
13
12
14
13
12
12
11
11
11
12
11
11
11
Feels °C
3
4
6
9
6
7
4
6
8
11
10
6
5
6
7
7
6
3
3
4
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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