Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 1 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 6 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 5 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 11s period, WSW swell with 7,604 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 6 Sep, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 13s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 05) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 03) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sat 5th Sep) | 18ft (5.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for Cape Paterson. It’s gonna be a rough start before we get any real waves, so listen up.
The first few days are a total loss. Wednesday the 2nd kicks off with a 7ft swell from the WSW, but that 15 mph cross-on wind has it all chopped up and messy. The wave energy is strong at 3594, but it’s just not rideable. Thursday and Friday are even worse with gale-force winds and big, lumpy seas. Saturday the 5th is a complete no-go with a near gale blowing. You’ll be sitting this one out unless you’re into kite surfing, because the swell is huge but the wind is just destroying it.
Sunday the 6th shows a bit of a breather. The morning is still cross-shore and lumpy, but by the afternoon the wind drops right off to a 3 mph breeze. The swell is 7ft from the WSW with a 14-second period, and the energy is still a solid 1923. It’s marginal, but that light wind might give you a few clean ones if you’re desperate.
Now, the real standouts are coming. Tuesday the 8th afternoon is where it starts to get interesting. We’ve got a 6ft swell from the SW with a long 17-second period, light offshore wind from the NW, and the water is clean. The energy is 1909, and it’s described as "very good surf conditions." This is a proper groundswell, so expect some nice, well-shaped waves but with longer waits between sets.
The best session of the whole forecast is Thursday the 10th, but only for the experts. The morning kicks off with a massive 16ft SW swell (combined energy 11791) and a clean offshore wind from the E. The data says it’s too big for this break, but if you’ve got the skills and the big-wave board, this is a once-in-a-forecast opportunity. The afternoon is similar with 15ft and even more energy at 16731. This is for the heavy crew only.
After that, things settle down. Saturday the 12th is another gem. The morning has a 5ft SW swell, light offshore wind, and clean conditions. The afternoon bumps up to 10ft from the WSW, still with light wind and clean faces. It’s described as "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That’s your call for a solid session without the insanity of the 10th.
The second week trails off. Tuesday the 15th afternoon looks promising with a 7ft WSW swell, clean offshore wind, and "excellent" conditions for experienced surfers again. But it’s further out, so keep an eye on it.
Water temps? Not mentioned in the data, so I’ll just say it’s standard for this time of year. No weird anomalies to report.
Crowds? Cape Paterson can get busy sometimes, so if you’re hitting that Tuesday the 8th or Saturday the 12th, expect a few locals out. Worth it, though.
To sum it up: the first week is a bust, but the second half of the week and into the weekend have some proper windows. Tuesday the 8th afternoon is your best bet for a fun, clean session without the huge size. Thursday the 10th is the big-wave standout for the brave. Saturday the 12th is your reliable weekend pick. Stay sharp, and don’t bother paddling out before Sunday the 6th.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sat morning. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Sat afternoon, calm by Mon morning). | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | SW 20 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
418 | 2479 | 2271 | 2911 | 4584 | 5618 | 5639 | 5168 | 4312 | 3118 | 1987 | 7604 | 4242 | 2838 | 1800 | 714 | 390 | 281 | 325 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | 9:47AM0.19m | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | |||||||
— | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | |
mm | 6 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 |
418 | 1115 | 2271 | 2182 | — | — | 5639 | 5168 | 4312 | 3118 | 1987 | — | — | 2838 | 1800 | 714 | 390 | 281 | 229 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 22 | SW 22 | SW 20 |
84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 123 | 25 | 18 | 73 | 325 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 9 | WSW 16 | — | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | — | — | NNW 4 | WNW 6 | WSW 11 | WSW 13 | — | — | ENE 3 | E 3 | SE 4 | SE 5 |
408 | 2479 | — | 2911 | 4584 | 5618 | 4671 | — | — | 49 | 310 | 7604 | 4242 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 114 | 41 | 23 | 105 | 117 | 117 | 113 | 23 | 5 | 150 | 428 | 429 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











