
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 2 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 2,446 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 18s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Gather ’round, crew. Let’s talk about the next stretch at Cape Paterson. The first couple of days actually have some clean, decent-sized swell, but after that, things get real messy real quick, with a lot of lumpy, windy, and oversized conditions. The standout window is short and sweet – Sunday the 2nd and the following Saturday the 8th look like the only real clean windows worth paddling out for, with everything else being a fight against the wind or just way too big.
Sunday morning, August 2nd, is your best bet for the whole run. We’re looking at a clean 1.6m (about 5 ft) SSW groundswell with a nice long 16-second period. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNW, so it’s gonna be smooth, clean, and well-shaped. The water’s sitting at 14°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no drama there. The combined wave energy is up at 1395 (moderate energy), so there’s some proper push behind it. This is a classic Cape Paterson morning – not too big, good direction, and glassy lines. If you want a wave, that’s the session.
The afternoon of the 2nd stays clean cross-off but the wind picks up to 25 km/h (about 16 mph) and the energy drops a touch. Still rideable, but the morning is the clear winner.
Monday the 3rd goes downhill fast. Strong cross-shore winds and rain start to mess things up, and that trend sticks through Tuesday and Wednesday. We get a pulse of bigger swell on Tuesday the 4th (2.0m to 2.1m, about 7 ft to 7 ft, WSW), but it’s cross-onshore or cross-shore and choppy. Not a good look for a clean ride.
Thursday and Friday (the 6th & 7th) see the swell drop right off into tiny, weak energy (308 and 358) with messy cross-onshore winds. Not worth suiting up.
Now, Saturday morning, August 8th, is your second standout. The swell settles back to a tidy 1.4m (about 5 ft) from the SW, still with a 16-second period, and the wind shifts to a light cross-offshore from the NNE. Clean lines are back, with combined energy at 1044 (moderate). The crowd factor at Cape Paterson is occasionally busy, so you might end up sharing a few sets, but with conditions like that, it’s worth the company. This is the one to circle on the calendar after the first session.
Everything after that goes a bit sideways. Sunday the 9th brings howling NNW winds at 40 km/h (about 25 mph), and Monday the 10th dumps a massive 6.0m (about 20 ft) WSW swell on us – that’s way too big for a sheltered spot like this, and definitely only for experts (if anyone). The combined energy hits an insane 10285 (very strong energy). The wind’s howling onshore, so unless you’re a tow-in crew, give it a miss.
Tuesday the 11th drops to a still-big 3.0m (about 10 ft) WSW swell with light cross-onshore wind, but the size and crumbly wind mean it’s marginal at best. Wednesday the 12th morning looks glassy with a 3.0m (about 10 ft) WSW groundswell, but 10 feet is pushing it for quality at this break – too big for clean recreation. The energy is enormous (4949), but the wave comment says it’s for experienced surfers only.
Thursday the 13th through Monday the 17th is a write-off: massive swell (4.0m to 5.0m, about 13 ft to 16 ft), strong winds, and a lot of rain. The wind is offshore or cross-off on the 13th and 14th, but the swell size is just too heavy for Cape Paterson to handle well. By the 15th and 16th, it’s a full-on storm washout with cross-onshore gales.
So, to wrap it up: don’t miss Sunday morning (Aug 2) for the cleanest, most enjoyable session of the lot. If you can’t make that, Saturday the 8th is your backup – a little smaller but still tidy. Everything else is either blown out, too big, or way too lumpy to bother.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun morning, fresh winds from the NW by Mon morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 6 | WSW 10 | SW 19 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 16 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1384 | 1101 | 1001 | 521 | 801 | 1958 | 1144 | 1074 | 426 | 229 | 175 | 249 | 149 | 164 | 491 | 1647 | 1309 | 1775 | 1044 | 1018 | 818 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | 3:38PM0.77m | 4:06AM0.72m | 4:09PM0.77m | 4:50AM0.74m | 4:43PM0.77m | 5:35AM0.75m | 5:19PM0.76m | 6:25AM0.74m | 6:01PM0.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | 9:24AM0.17m | 9:57PM0.13m | 10:03AM0.19m | 10:32PM0.10m | 10:43AM0.21m | 11:10PM0.07m | 11:26AM0.24m | 11:52PM0.05m | 12:12PM0.28m | 00:40AM0.04m | ||||||||
7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | |
— | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:32 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 3 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 21 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | SW 13 | SW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | WSW 15 |
1384 | 1101 | 1001 | 521 | 801 | 471 | 1144 | 1074 | 111 | 229 | 130 | 249 | 149 | 133 | 270 | 1647 | 1309 | 1775 | 1044 | 1018 | 818 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | SE 12 | WSW 20 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 18 | W 8 | SW 19 | — | — | SE 10 | SE 9 |
6 | 5 | 75 | 302 | — | — | — | — | 112 | 186 | 175 | 154 | 129 | 164 | 491 | 108 | 540 | — | — | 4 | 3 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | — | SE 7 | WSW 20 | WSW 14 | SE 8 | NW 3 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 48 | 100 | — | 2 | 39 | 138 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | W 6 | W 8 | WSW 14 | NNW 4 | — | SW 6 | SSW 6 | SW 5 | SW 5 | SW 5 | SW 5 | NW 3 | — | W 8 | — | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 |
5 | 20 | 35 | 227 | 418 | 1958 | 12 | — | 426 | 72 | 30 | 35 | 28 | 22 | 3 | — | 78 | — | 10 | 13 | 36 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 141 | 142 | 114 | 49 | 5 | 117 | 45 | 114 | 54 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 423 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











