
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 6 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 12s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 18s period, SW swell with 8,311 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 13) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here again, same story but in feet and miles an’ all that. Let’s talk Cape Paterson.
First week’s pretty rough, I’ll be straight with you. From Sunday the 6th through Wednesday the 9th, it’s mostly onshore and cross-onshore winds, WSW and SSW, with swell running 7ft to 11ft from the southwest. Plenty of juice in the water but the wind’s just wreckin’ it—choppy and blown out, not worth paddlin’. The combined energy is strong to very strong (numbers in the 1832 to 13912 range), but that don’t help when the surface is all torn up.
Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th, still no good. Swell drops from 10ft to 7ft, but cross-onshore winds keep it poor. Then Saturday the 12th of September—now we’re talkin’. Saturday morning’s clean with a light north wind, cross-offshore at 3 mph, and a 6ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period. That’s proper energy (1513 combined energy) and the wind’s glassin’ it up. Cape Paterson’s a beach and reef setup, so that long-period swell can break a bit straight on the beach, but with those light conditions it’s the best of the whole two weeks. Crowds can be around sometimes, so expect a few others out, but for clean lines, Saturday morning’s your window.
Saturday afternoon the wind goes light cross-shore from the southeast at 3 mph, with a 5ft SW swell. Smaller, a little ripple on it, but still okay if you missed the morning.
Sunday the 13th onward, it’s back to messy. Sunday morning has a 4ft WSW swell but a fresh north-northwest breeze at 18 mph—clean lookin’ but the swell’s small and the wind’s strong. Monday the 14th brings rain and a near gale west-southwest wind at 31 mph, with a 10ft short-period swell (7 seconds). Blown out, no doubt. Tuesday the 15th has 8ft WSW swell but onshore winds, still no good.
Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th offer a glimmer—marginal conditions with 8ft to 13ft SW swells and some cross-offshore winds, but the wind’s still fresh to strong (15–25 mph). Thursday afternoon the 17th has a 13ft WSW swell but a strong north-northwest breeze—clean but huge, only for the experts, and with that short 9-second period it’s not gonna be the best shape.
After that, from Friday the 18th all the way to Monday the 21st of September, it’s mostly onshore or cross-onshore, with wind in the 25–31 mph range and swell sizes from 7ft to 11ft. A couple marginal windows pop up—like Monday the 21st morning with a light northwest cross-shore and 8ft WSW swell, and Monday afternoon with a light southerly onshore and the same swell—but still borderline, with combined energy in the 2000s.
So here’s the bottom line: a lot of poor conditions, but that Saturday the 12th morning is the standout. If you’re keen, be there early for clean 6ft SW swell, light offshores, and a bit of that long-period power. Otherwise, it’s a lot of waitin’ and watchin’.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun afternoon, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, strong winds from the SSW by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 7°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 7 | SW 9 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
1759 | 657 | 1158 | 470 | 421 | 723 | 874 | 1449 | 5341 | 8311 | 6227 | 5019 | 3888 | 2761 | 1776 | 1542 | 1856 | 1513 | 1187 | 915 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | 11:20AM0.70m | 11:34PM0.68m | 12:15PM0.72m | 00:41AM0.72m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | 4:46AM0.17m | 5:30PM0.25m | 5:53AM0.18m | 6:29PM0.19m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | |
5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:04 | — | |
mm | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 10 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 9 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 16 | SW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
1759 | 657 | 55 | 82 | 421 | 723 | 760 | 1449 | 986 | 5601 | 6227 | 5019 | 3888 | 2761 | 1776 | 1542 | 1856 | 1513 | 1187 | 915 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | WSW 16 | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 26 | SW 21 | — | — | — | — | SSW 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | 25 | 18 | 71 | 186 | 628 | 874 | 26 | 974 | — | — | — | — | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 18 | 44 | 312 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 7 | WSW 6 | WSW 12 | SW 7 | — | — | SW 4 | WSW 7 | SW 16 | SW 18 | SSW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 |
73 | 124 | 1158 | 470 | — | — | 21 | 367 | 5341 | 8311 | 237 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 52 | 54 | 81 | 81 | 39 | 5 | 52 | 421 | 521 | 1134 | 117 | 54 | 167 | 54 | 45 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










