Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 08 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 8,341 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 1AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Fri 11th Sep)7ft (2.1m) 16s
Best Surf10PM (Fri 11th Sep)7ft (2.1m) 16s
Most Powerful 1PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming our way for Cape Paterson.

Right off the bat, it’s a bit of a rough start. The first few days are looking pretty average with a lot of onshore wind and poor conditions. The surf is there, but it’s not surfable unless you’re a glutton for punishment. We’re looking at a solid 5ft to 12ft range of SW swell, but with strong onshore winds, it’s just a washing machine. The combined energy is pumping hard, hitting 1351 (moderate) and climbing all the way to a massive 13946 (strong) by Wednesday afternoon, but it’s all for nothing with the wind. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a nice little bonus even if you're just watching.

The first real sign of hope hits on Saturday, 12th September. The morning session is where it’s at. We’ve got a clean 6ft SW swell rolling in from that ideal SW direction, with a long 16-second period between sets. This is proper groundswell, and it’s going to wrap nicely around the point. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NW, so the faces will be clean. The energy is a solid 1761 (moderate), so there’s some push. The water is still about average for the season. This is the standout of the first week. The afternoon is a bit more marginal with the wind swinging onshore, so get out early.

Sunday, 13th September morning is still a decent option. The swell drops a touch to 5ft, same long period, and the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the NNW. The energy is a bit lower at 1006 (moderate), but cleaner waves are better than big messy ones. The afternoon fades out.

Then we hit a bit of a lull through the middle of the week. The 14th and 15th are a write-off with fresh onshore winds and lumpy conditions. The swell drops right off, down to 3ft, and the energy dips to 412 (weak). It’s a good time to clean the wax off your board.

The next real standout is a long-range call, but it’s a promising one. Thursday, 17th September morning is looking fantastic. The swell is back up to a clean 6ft from the SW, with a lovely 16-second period. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the NNE, which is a dream for Cape Paterson. The energy is 1415 (moderate). This is a proper session. The crowds here are "sometimes" an issue, but on a Thursday morning with that quality, you might have a few locals out. This is the second big highlight.

The following weekend, Saturday, 19th September, has a sneaky look to it. The morning shows a 10ft SW swell with a 14-second period, and the wind is just a gentle cross-shore. The energy is a beefy 3887 (strong). However, this is getting into the "experts only" territory. That’s a lot of water moving. The afternoon gets messy with a strong cross-onshore and rain, so the window is small.

Towards the end of the forecast, Monday, 21st September and Tuesday, 22nd September both have some good potential. Monday shows 10ft with a 17-second period, but the wind is cross-shore to cross-on. Not perfect, but surfable for the keen. Tuesday morning, the 22nd, looks cleaner with a 8ft SW swell and a cross-offshore NNW wind. The energy is 2727 (moderate). That’s a solid day.

The rest of the week into the 23rd just fades out with onshore winds and smaller, lumpy surf.

So, to wrap it up: the best bets are Saturday morning, the 12th for the cleanest, most manageable waves, and Thursday morning, the 17th for another clean, long-period swell. The 19th is for the big-wave crew only. The rest is a mixed bag of waiting for the wind to play nice.

This is Rusty, signing off.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 10°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue night, light winds from the W by Thu night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 21°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the NNW by Sun night).

Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
2
2
4
2
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.5
SW
13
1.2
SW
17
1.7
SW
16
3
SW
16
3.5
SW
18
3
SW
18
3
SW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.3
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
1.9
SW
15
2.1
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
1.8
SW
15
1.6
SW
15
1.5
SW
15
1.4
SW
15
1.1
SW
15
0.9
SW
14
0.9
WSW
13
2.4
WSW
7
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
723
874
1449
4834
7954
5921
4959
3664
2418
1542
1585
2241
1761
1436
1171
1006
816
503
272
309
555
Wind (km/h)
15
W
20
W
35
W
35
SSW
35
SW
25
SSW
20
WSW
20
WSW
10
WSW
10
W
10
SW
10
N
10
NW
5
SSE
15
N
20
NNW
25
NNW
30
NNW
35
WNW
25
WSW
40
WSW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-off
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
High Tide
7:34PM0.69m
9:07AM0.69m
8:50PM0.66m
10:16AM0.68m
10:15PM0.66m
11:20AM0.70m
11:34PM0.68m
12:15PM0.72m
00:41AM0.72m
1:03PM0.74m
1:37AM0.75m
1:46PM0.75m
2:25AM0.78m
Low Tide
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
3:00PM0.33m
3:32AM0.15m
4:19PM0.30m
4:46AM0.17m
5:30PM0.25m
5:53AM0.18m
6:29PM0.19m
6:52AM0.18m
7:20PM0.13m
7:43AM0.18m
8:04PM0.09m
clear
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:30
6:28
6:26
6:26
6:24
6:22
6:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:02
6:04
6:05
6:06
 mm
1
Temp °C
11
11
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
12
12
15
18
16
20
21
19
17
15
13
Feels °C
7
7
5
2
3
5
6
7
9
9
9
11
12
15
13
15
16
11
10
9
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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