Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, it's Rusty. Look, I've got to be straight with you – the next 16 days are a real mixed bag for Cape Paterson. This is a sheltered spot that needs a very specific window, and most of the time the wind is going to be a problem. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year.

The first week is pretty grim. From Friday the 24th right through to the end of July, it's a write-off. We've got a massive 12ft SW groundswell rolling in on Friday morning with a very long 15-second period, packing some serious weight, but a screaming 22 mph WSW wind is blowing straight across it, making it a lumpy, blown-out mess. That's not surfable. Saturday and Sunday are the same story – fresh cross-onshore winds and big, messy swell. The waves are over 8ft, so even if the wind was good, this would be expert-only territory.

We get a little glimmer of hope on Monday the 27th. The wind finally swings to a light offshore from the NW, and the swell drops to a more manageable 5ft. It's a clean, cross-off breeze, but the forecast is marginal. It's the best thing on offer for days, but don't expect much. Tuesday the 28th is a total loss again – near-gale force winds ruin the whole day.

The middle of the week (29th-30th) is onshore and messy. Then on the 31st, we get another clean window with a light offshore wind and a small 4ft SW groundswell. It's still only marginal.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. The real standout – the one you want to circle on the calendar – is Saturday the 1st of August. It's a full week away, so it's promising but not locked in yet. The morning is looking clear with a light NNW offshore breeze. The swell is small at 3ft, but it's a very long period groundswell of 17 seconds. That long period means the waves will have shape and power for their size, and the clean conditions will make it glassy. This is the best chance for a sneaky, fun session. The afternoon sees a bit more size at 5ft with a 16-second period, but the wind goes cross-shore, so the morning is the pick.

Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd of August also have clean, cross-off winds and a solid 6ft to 6ft SW groundswell with a very long 17-second period. The energy is moderate to strong. These are good options, but the wind is a moderate breeze, so it won't be glassy. Still, clean and lined up.

After that, the forecast gets messy again from the 4th onwards. The wind picks up, and while there's still plenty of swell, it's going to be choppy and lumpy. The 6th of August has another big pulse of 8ft, 19-second groundswell, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore. It's a powerful, dangerous-looking swell for a beach and reef setup like this, and with the wind, it might be more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. Saturday the 1st of August morning is your best bet for a small, clean, glassy session on a long-period groundswell. Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd are solid backups with clean, lined-up waves, though a bit more wind-affected. The rest is a gamble.

Rusty.

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