
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 8 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 12 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 12s period, WSW swell with 8,447 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 8 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 19s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 08) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 1.2m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 5.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10AM (Wed 8th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 19s |
| Best Surf | 1PM (Wed 8th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Sun 12th Jul) | 18ft (5.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
G’day, Rusty here. Well, it’s a bit of a mixed bag for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. The good news is there’s plenty of swell on the cards, but the wind is going to make life interesting. Let’s break it down.
The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year—about 2° above the long-term average, so not a big shock but still a bit of a treat if you’re in a spring suit.
The first real standouts are on Wednesday the 8th and Friday the 10th. Wednesday morning is looking like a beauty: clear skies, a light NE breeze keeping it offshore, and a clean 5ft SW swell, with a very long 19-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is pumping at 1938 (moderate-to-strong). This is a reef and beach setup, so that long period might make it a bit straight at the beach, but the reef could really shine. It’s an advanced break though, so not one for the learners. Expect conditions to be clean and inviting, but crowds are sometimes a thing here, so keep an eye out.
Thursday the 9th is smaller, with a 5ft SW swell dropping to 4ft by the afternoon, but the wind goes glassy in the arvo—absolutely dead calm. That’s a major positive, giving you clean, silky surface conditions. The swell period is still solid at 15-16 seconds. Wave energy is lower at around 724-876, but for a fun, smaller session, it’s worth a look.
Friday the 10th is another strong call. Morning and afternoon both have a clean 5ft swell from the WSW, with a 15-second period and light N to NW winds that are cross-offshore. The combined energy is just over 1000 (moderate), so it’s not a monster, but the quality should be very good. This is probably the pick of the first week for a solid, user-friendly wave.
Now, watch out for the weekend. From Saturday the 11th through Monday the 13th, the wind goes absolutely bonkers. We’re talking 25-31 mph winds from the NW and W, ripping cross-shore and cross-on, creating horrible, blown-out conditions. The swell jumps up to 15ft on Sunday, but with those winds, it’s a total mess—more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. The combined energy is massive (5933-6930), but it’s not surfable for us. This stretch is a write-off.
Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th stay messy, with strong winds and 8-10ft swell. The wind is mainly cross-on, so you’re looking at lumpy, choppy, blown-out conditions. Not worth the drive.
There’s a glimmer on Thursday the 16th, with a smaller 5ft SW swell and a 14-second period, but it’s cross-shore and marginal. Not a standout.
Now, here’s the beacon in the second week. Friday the 17th is looking excellent for experienced surfers. We’ve got a 6ft SW groundswell with an 18-second period in the morning, and the wind is light and cross-off from the E. Combined energy is 2149 (strong). This is a proper, powerful, long-period swell, and with clean conditions, Cape Paterson should offer some very good waves. It’s a bit big for beginners, but for anyone advanced, it’s the best on offer in the entire outlook. Crowds are sometimes a factor, so get in early.
Saturday the 18th is still okay, with a 5ft SW swell and light NNW winds, but the period drops to 15 seconds. It’s a solid session, but not as crisp as Friday.
After that, from Sunday the 19th onwards, we’re back into strong winds and smaller, messy swell. The last few days of the outlook (21st-23rd) see 10-13ft swell with onshore and cross-on winds and short periods (8-10 seconds), which is just ugly. There’s a big gap of poor conditions after the 18th through to the end of the window.
So, to sum it up: Wednesday the 8th morning and Friday the 10th are your early bright spots, but the real standout is Friday the 17th—that’s the one to circle on the calendar. The rest is wind, rain, and chop. Keep the faith, the ocean will turn again.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Sat afternoon). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Sat night, fresh winds from the W by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | W 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1014 | 711 | 515 | 352 | 3243 | 6930 | 5933 | 4039 | 3948 | 3768 | 3895 | 3970 | 3871 | 3692 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-on | on |
High Tide | 5:11PM0.75m | 5:53AM0.69m | 5:47PM0.74m | 6:46AM0.71m | 6:27PM0.73m | 7:45AM0.72m | 7:15PM0.72m | 8:49AM0.73m | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:00AM0.21m | 11:37PM0.13m | 11:44AM0.24m | 00:19AM0.10m | 12:34PM0.28m | 1:06AM0.07m | 1:30PM0.31m | 2:00AM0.05m | 2:33PM0.34m | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | ||||||||
7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | |
— | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | 6 |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 22 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 |
1385 | 2402 | 1350 | 871 | 623 | 1172 | 1069 | 1014 | 711 | 515 | 352 | — | — | — | 64 | 18 | 3768 | 3895 | 3970 | 3871 | 3692 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | SE 11 | SW 20 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | W 8 | W 9 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 19 | — | — | — | — |
553 | 24 | 29 | 5 | 97 | 9 | — | — | — | 74 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | 96 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | — | — | — | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | SE 8 | E 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
24 | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 6 | W 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | NW 6 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 11 | 80 | 160 | 3243 | 6930 | 5933 | 4039 | 3948 | 107 | 38 | 54 | 38 | 49 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 227 | 142 | 227 | 466 | 443 | 443 | 581 | 117 | 105 | 496 | 443 | 537 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










