Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 14 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 2,582 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Wed 15th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Cape Paterson for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so we’ll need to pick the eyes out of it.
The first few days are a write-off, to be honest. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are a mess – strong cross-shore winds, lumpy water, and the swell is too big and raw to be any fun. The combined energy is massive (2582), but it’s just a washing machine out there. We’re looking at a blank run until Friday morning.
Now, Friday the 17th is where it finally comes together. The morning session is the real standout. We’ve got a clean 6ft SW groundswell rolling in with a 16-second period – that’s proper long-period energy, meaning better shaped waves but longer lulls between sets. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNW, so the face will be clean. The combined energy is still solid (1672), and with the offshore wind, this is the pick of the forecast. The water temp is sitting around 57°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing surprising there.
Saturday the 18th is also a good call. The morning is clean again with a 6ft WSW swell and a light cross-offshore breeze. The standout moment is Saturday afternoon – glassy conditions, zero wind, and a 5ft swell. It’ll be a bit smaller, but that glassy surface will make it silky smooth. This is a great option for anyone who doesn’t want to fight the crowd too much, though it can get busy here sometimes.
Sunday the 19th sees the swell drop right off to 4ft, but the morning is clean and the afternoon is glassy. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. From Monday the 20th through to the end of the month, the outlook turns pretty grim. There’s a big gap of poor conditions with strong winds, lumpy chop, and generally messy surf. There’s a brief spike on Thursday the 24th with a 10ft SW swell, but the wind is onshore and messy, so that’s firmly in the “only for the hardcore or kites” category.
For the beginners, Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are the go-to windows, but the 6-6ft swell might be a bit much if you’re just starting out. For the experts, the bigger days later in the month are there, but the conditions aren’t doing them any favours.
All in all, don’t hold your breath for the second week. The only real window is this Friday and Saturday. After that, it’s a long wait.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed afternoon, min 9°C on Wed morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | WSW 12 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2582 | 2094 | 1949 | 2203 | 1994 | 1695 | 1672 | 1715 | 1396 | 1332 | 902 | 587 | 373 | 288 | 161 | 532 | 224 | 211 | 538 | 781 | 517 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | 3:26PM0.83m | 3:48AM0.75m | 4:06PM0.82m | 4:39AM0.74m | 4:44PM0.80m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | 8:55PM0.15m | 9:03AM0.08m | 9:43PM0.11m | 9:51AM0.13m | 10:28PM0.09m | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | |  | | | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — |
 | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
Feels °C | 6 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 16 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 |
| kJ | 2582 | 2094 | 1949 | 2203 | 1994 | 1695 | 1672 | 1715 | 1396 | 1332 | 902 | 587 | 373 | 288 | 161 | 532 | 224 | 184 | 538 | 781 | 517 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SW 18 | SSW 10 | SW 15 | SW 14 | WSW 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 48 | 49 | 152 | 9 | 223 | 211 | 154 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | SW 20 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SW 10 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 60 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 10 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 3 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12 | 16 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 5 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 41 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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