Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 16 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.4° C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 4,796 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 10AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 10AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10AM (Sun 16th Aug)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Best Surf10AM (Sun 16th Aug)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Most Powerful10AM (Sat 22nd Aug)10ft (3.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, it’s Rusty. Look, it’s been a bit quiet, but we’ve got some windows at Cape Paterson. This is a protected beach and reef setup that works best on a good SW swell and some clean wind. Overall, we’re looking at a few promising mornings but plenty of rough days mixed in too, especially into the second week. Water temp is about 56°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, nothin’ wild there.

Sunday morning the 16th is our first real nod – clean, glassy conditions with a light NE breeze at 3 mph. Swell is coming from the SW at 5 ft with a 14-second period, so there’s some decent energy in the water (991 combined energy). It’s not huge but it’s clean and rideable. That morning window is the standout early on. By arvo, the wind swings SE and it gets cross, choppier, more marginal.

Monday the 17th is okay on the morning with a cross-off E breeze at 9 mph and a 5 ft SW swell (777 combined energy). Clean enough but nothin’ to write home about. The arvo has more size at 5 ft and longer 16-second period, energy jumps to 1271, but it’s a bit blown.

Tuesday the 18th morning is a real highlight – offshore ENE wind at just 6 mph, clean lines, 4 ft from the WSW at 14 seconds (789 combined energy). This is worth paddling out for if you can. Arvo’s okay but the wind gets cross-off again.

Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th are small and pretty average – 3 ft to 3 ft, poor conditions. Not worth the effort.

Friday the 21st gets interesting for the right surfer. Morning has a 3 ft WSW swell but a very long 19-second period – that’s proper groundswell, energy jumps to 1106. Wind is cross-off NW at 12 mph, clean. These long-period swells can be a bit straight at beach breaks, but Cape Paterson being a reef and beach setup, it might offer some shape. Arvo jumps to 5 ft and 1587 combined energy but the wind turns cross, so it’s messier.

Now Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd – this is big. Swell hits 10 ft from the WSW, energy readings over 4000. But the wind is onshore or strong cross, blowing hard at 15 to 22 mph. This is expert-only territory and only if you’re keen on big, messy surf. Honestly, with poor quality and that much wind, it looks more like a kite surfing day than paddle surfing.

Monday the 24th is even bigger – 12 ft swell, 28 mph cross-on wind, total mess. Tuesday the 25th drops to 8 ft but still cross-on and lumpy. That whole period from the 22nd through the 25th is a write-off for clean waves.

Wednesday the 26th calms down – 5 ft SW swell, 12-second period, cross-off E wind at 9 mph. Clean, but only marginal energy (514). Thursday the 27th morning is the final true standout: offshore NNE wind at 9 mph, 5 ft SW swell with an incredible 18-second period – that’s a very long groundswell (2123 combined energy). This is excellent for experienced surfers. The reef and rock setup at Cape Paterson will love that direction and period. Don’t miss that morning if you can handle the paddle between sets.

Friday the 28th is solid too – 6 ft SW swell, 16-second period (1829 combined energy), cross-off wind. Clean, but not as clean as Thursday morning. After that, Saturday the 29th through Monday the 31st tail off into smaller, wind-affected, or just poor.

So overall, the best windows are Sunday morning the 16th for a glassy little session, Tuesday morning the 18th for clean offshore fun, and then the big prize – Thursday morning the 27th with that long-period groundswell and offshore wind. That Thursday is the one to circle.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 11°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 18°C on Wed afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Thu afternoon, strong winds from the WSW by Fri afternoon).

Sunday
16
Monday
17
Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
15
1.3
WSW
14
1.2
SW
14
0.9
WSW
13
0.8
WSW
14
0.8
WSW
15
0.8
WSW
14
0.9
WSW
13
0.8
WSW
13
1.2
WSW
13
0.8
WSW
19
1.5
WSW
14
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
14
3
WSW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
988
988
811
777
1271
1103
701
589
282
257
287
268
282
229
491
475
943
3986
4796
3949
3968
Wind (km/h)
5
NE
15
SE
15
ENE
15
E
25
ESE
20
E
10
ENE
15
ESE
15
NE
20
NNE
25
N
35
NW
25
WNW
20
WNW
15
WNW
20
NW
20
NW
35
WSW
30
SW
25
WSW
25
WNW
Wind State
glassy
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross
on
on
on
cross-on
High Tide
2:17PM0.80m
2:42AM0.76m
2:57PM0.80m
3:31AM0.77m
3:35PM0.80m
4:16AM0.77m
4:11PM0.78m
4:58AM0.75m
4:46PM0.76m
5:39AM0.72m
5:20PM0.73m
6:20AM0.69m
5:54PM0.69m
Low Tide
8:33PM0.12m
8:47AM0.13m
9:17PM0.08m
9:31AM0.16m
9:57PM0.06m
10:12AM0.19m
10:36PM0.06m
10:50AM0.23m
11:13PM0.08m
11:28AM0.27m
11:51PM0.11m
12:05PM0.30m
00:30AM0.13m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:03
7:01
7:01
6:58
6:58
6:56
6:54
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:39
5:40
5:42
5:43
5:44
5:45
5:45
 mm
2
4
1
1
Temp °C
13
13
12
15
15
13
16
17
16
17
18
15
12
14
13
13
14
11
11
12
11
Feels °C
12
10
8
11
9
9
14
13
12
11
13
11
7
10
9
7
9
4
4
5
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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