Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 04 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 21s period, SW swell with 11,648 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 21s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful 1PM (Wed 9th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 21s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down Cape Paterson over the next couple weeks. It’s a rough start, but there’s a couple of windows if you’re keen.

Right off the bat, Friday the 4th is not the day. We’ve got a solid 10ft WSW groundswell with a long 16-second period, and combined energy is massive at 4963, but that northwest wind is cross and strong at 30 km/h. It’s lumpy and only for the hardcore advanced crew. Water’s sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so not a shock but nice.

The whole first week is pretty much a write-off. Saturday the 5th through to Monday the 7th are all zero-score days with onshore winds and messy conditions – Saturday afternoon even has a risk of thunderstorms and 45 km/h WNW winds. Not worth paddling out. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th stay poor, with Wednesday afternoon seeing a massive 13ft SW groundswell at 19 seconds and combined energy of 10597, but it’s blowing strong onshore – that’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. Thursday the 10th is similar: 12ft to 10ft SW swell but onshore wind keeps it ugly.

We hit a dry spell with no real recommendations from the 4th right through until the middle of the second week. That’s about 12 days of marginal or poor conditions.

Now, the standout finally shows up on Wednesday the 16th, afternoon. Cape Paterson sees a 15ft WSW swell, period 9 seconds, combined energy of 2811. The wind is light cross-onshore from the SSW at just 5 km/h, so the conditions are favorable. But here’s the catch: at 15ft, this is only for experts. It’s a big, powerful swell for this sheltered reef and beach setup. The swell direction is WSW, which matches that optimum SW direction pretty well. Clean, but big. That’s your best bet in the whole outlook.

Thursday the 17th goes back to slop with 18ft onshore junk, and Friday the 18th is still marginal with clean-ish cross-shore winds but 12ft SW groundswell – still on the big side but not as clean. By Saturday the 19th morning, we get a nice drop to 6ft SW groundswell with 16-second period, light NNW cross-offshore breeze, and clean conditions – a solid, more manageable option for those who missed the big Wednesday wave.

Overall, if you’re an expert with a big-wave board, mark Wednesday the 16th afternoon. If you want smaller and cleaner, Saturday the 19th morning is your window. The rest… well, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Fri night, near gales from the W by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night).

Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
2.5
W
15
4.5
WSW
10
3
WSW
10
2.3
WSW
14
2.1
WSW
12
1.9
SW
7
1.3
WSW
11
1.8
SW
13
1.6
SW
13
1.2
SW
17
1.8
SW
16
2
SW
16
4
SW
19
4
SW
18
3.5
SW
18
3
SW
17
2.5
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
4963
4367
3158
1987
3371
4608
1602
2181
1333
325
372
1037
837
874
1552
2053
10597
10085
7009
5264
3058
Wind (km/h)
30
NW
25
NW
20
N
35
NNW
45
WNW
55
W
25
WSW
20
WSW
30
W
35
SSW
25
SW
15
SW
15
WNW
20
W
30
W
35
SW
40
SW
30
SSW
20
SSW
20
SW
15
WSW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
on
on
High Tide
4:18PM0.78m
5:16AM0.79m
4:57PM0.77m
6:05AM0.77m
5:41PM0.75m
6:58AM0.73m
6:32PM0.72m
7:59AM0.70m
7:34PM0.69m
9:07AM0.69m
8:50PM0.66m
10:16AM0.68m
10:15PM0.66m
Low Tide
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
11:08AM0.24m
11:30PM0.02m
11:54AM0.27m
00:19AM0.04m
12:45PM0.30m
1:15AM0.07m
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
3:00PM0.33m
3:32AM0.15m
4:19PM0.30m
clear
part cloud
mod rain
rain showers
thunderstorm
rain showers
clear
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:35
6:35
6:33
6:31
6:30
6:28
6:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:57
5:58
5:59
6:00
6:00
6:00
6:01
 mm
9
6
2
5
1
1
2
1
Temp °C
13
15
15
15
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
11
11
11
11
11
Feels °C
6
9
9
7
4
6
9
9
7
4
5
7
6
7
6
1
2
3
6
6
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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