Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 02 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.6°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 1 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 4 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 4 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,967 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 4 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.5m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 04) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Fri 4th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 16s
Best Surf10PM (Fri 4th Sep)8ft (2.5m) 16s
Most Powerful 4AM (Fri 4th Sep)11ft (3.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been lookin’ over the next few weeks for Cape Paterson – and I gotta be straight with ya, it’s a tough run. This spot’s a beach and reef setup, sheltered from the swell, so it takes a fair bit to get it goin’ right. The water’s sittin’ at 57°F, which is about a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year – nothin’ wild, but a nice little touch if you’re in a wetsuit.

The first week’s a write-off for decent surf. We’ve got some solid swell rollin’ in – Wednesday the 2nd sees 7 ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period, and the combined energy’s a massive 2285 – but the wind’s cross-on, blowin’ at 25 km/h, and it’s choppy as. That trend sticks: Thursday the 3rd pumps up to 13 ft from the WSW, energy up to 5447, but again, cross-on wind at 35 km/h and the forecast says poor surf. Honestly, with that much power and messy wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Through Friday and into the weekend, it’s more of the same – big swell, but cross-shore or cross-on winds, lumpy, and the scores are low. By Monday the 7th, the swell drops to 4 ft from the WSW, and we get a moment of offshore wind from the SW at 10 km/h on the Monday afternoon, but the wave comment says poor surf, so it’s not worth paddlin’ out for.

Now, there’s a gap after that – Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th stay marginal or poor, with strong onshore winds. But then we get a proper standout. Thursday the 10th morning – this is the one to circle. The swell’s a solid 12 ft from the SW, period 17 seconds, and the combined energy is a beastly 6520. The wind’s light cross-on from the W at just 10 km/h, and the forecast says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” – but that’s the best we’ve seen all week. For an advanced surfer, that’s a session worth chasin’. The long period means it’s gonna be a proper groundswell, so the reef might handle it better than the beach. The afternoon of the 10th still holds 10 ft from the SW, with near-glass from the SSW at 5 km/h – still clean, but a notch down.

Friday the 11th is a beaut too. The morning brings 6 ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the wind’s light cross-off from the N at 10 km/h – that’s clean, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” The combined energy’s 1424 – still moderate-strong, but manageable. The afternoon’s similar with 5 ft and a slight air from the NNW – clean, but smaller.

After that, the wind turns nasty again on the 12th and 13th, with fresh cross-shore or onshore gusts, and the swell holds around 5 ft to 5 ft but the quality’s gone. The second week looks quiet – nothing above a 6 ft on the 16th, and the winds are mostly cross-on or onshore. But keep an eye on Thursday the 17th afternoon – that’s a long-range promise. The swell jumps to 12 ft from the SW, period 17 seconds, and the combined energy hits 13139 – that’s massive. The wind’s cross-off from the ESE at 35 km/h, which is a bit strong, but the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” with a score of 5 out of 10 – the best in the whole run. Could be a big, clean wave if the stars align, but it’s a week and a half away, so we’ll see.

Best on offer? Thursday the 10th morning – that 12 ft SW groundswell with light cross-on wind is the standout. Friday the 11th morning is a close second for the clean cross-off conditions. The rest of the window’s a mess, but when it’s this tough, one good session is all you need.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Sat afternoon, calm by Mon night).

Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
2
2
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.1
WSW
16
2.2
WSW
16
2.4
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
14
4
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
15
3
WSW
16
3
WSW
16
2.5
SW
16
2.2
SW
15
3.5
WSW
8
3.5
WSW
10
2.3
WSW
14
2.1
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
12
1.3
WSW
12
1.1
WSW
13
1.1
SW
14
1.1
SW
18
1.4
SW
17
1.7
WSW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2285
2271
2412
4739
5447
5639
4963
4367
3158
2148
1684
2542
2181
1515
746
436
389
424
817
1073
1356
Wind (km/h)
25
WNW
15
W
35
NW
40
W
35
W
35
WNW
30
NW
15
NW
40
NNW
45
NW
55
W
35
W
15
WNW
10
W
10
WNW
15
WNW
10
SW
5
SE
15
NW
20
WSW
35
SW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
on
glassy
cross
on
on
High Tide
3:06PM0.77m
3:49AM0.79m
3:41PM0.78m
4:32AM0.80m
4:18PM0.78m
5:16AM0.79m
4:57PM0.77m
6:05AM0.77m
5:41PM0.75m
6:58AM0.73m
6:32PM0.72m
7:59AM0.70m
7:34PM0.69m
Low Tide
9:26PM0.06m
9:47AM0.19m
10:04PM0.03m
10:27AM0.21m
10:45PM0.02m
11:08AM0.24m
11:30PM0.02m
11:54AM0.27m
00:19AM0.04m
12:45PM0.30m
1:15AM0.07m
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
clear
clear
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
heavy rain
light rain
thunderstorm
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:35
6:33
6:31
6:30
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:54
5:55
5:57
5:58
5:59
6:00
6:00
 mm
2
11
5
4
1
Temp °C
13
14
12
12
12
12
13
15
14
14
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
13
12
Feels °C
7
10
6
3
4
5
6
11
7
5
1
7
10
10
11
9
11
11
8
9
5
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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