Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,116 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming our way for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, we’ve got a rough start. Saturday the 22nd is a washout – strong onshore winds, messy, lumpy surf pushing 12 feet. That’s one for the kite crew, not for paddle surfing. The whole first week is a bit of a battle, honestly. There’s a gap of a few days with no real joy, just marginal conditions and bumpy seas.
The first real glimmer of hope shows up on the morning of Monday the 24th. The wind goes clean, cross-offshore, and we’ve got a 5 feet SW groundswell rolling in with a long period of 14 seconds. The energy is still moderate (822), but the clean conditions make it a worthwhile paddle for the experienced surfer. Tuesday the 25th afternoon keeps that promise with a similar 5 feet SW swell and clean conditions – that’s a solid session for the crew who know the reef.
Now, the first standout to really get excited about is the morning of Friday the 28th. We’re looking at a solid 7 feet WSW groundswell with a very long period of 17 seconds. The energy is pumping (2829), and the wind is clean, cross-off. That’s proper groundswell energy, so the point and reef setups will be the go – it’s going to be lined up and powerful. At 7 feet, this is for the experts. It’s the pick of the first week, no doubt.
The second week brings more potential. Sunday the 30th morning has a 4 feet SW swell, but the period is a massive 19 seconds – very long period. The combined energy is up there (2568). The wind is light, cross-onshore, just a bit of ripple. That’s a sneaky, clean session for the guys who know the break. Then Monday the 31st morning gives us a clean 7 feet SW swell with a 16-second period (2138 energy). That’s another expert-level day, but with the long period, those waves will be holding up beautifully.
The best on offer, though, looks to be the morning of Thursday the 3rd of September. Clean, cross-offshore breeze, a 6 feet WSW groundswell (15 seconds, 1590 energy), and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the one I’d be circling. The waves will have shape, power, and it’ll be uncrowded if you’re early.
The following Saturday the 5th of September morning also looks clean with a 6 feet SW swell, but the energy is a bit lower (996). Still a fun session, but not the standout.
Overall, we’ve got a few windows of clean, powerful groundswell. The long-period swells (over 15 seconds) mean the beach breaks might be a bit straight, but the reefs and points will be firing. For the experts, the 28th of August and the 3rd of September are the days to be out there. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there.
Stay stoked, and keep your eye on those clean windows.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Sat morning, light winds from the NE by Sun afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Tue morning). Winds increasing (calm on Tue night, fresh winds from the NW by Thu night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 19 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2542 | 4568 | 3192 | 1979 | 1617 | 1531 | 822 | 671 | 585 | 669 | 669 | 1031 | 822 | 572 | 479 | 239 | 353 | 3229 | 2829 | 2541 | 3374 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | on | on |
High Tide | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | 7:55AM0.63m | 7:14PM0.63m | 8:55AM0.62m | 8:08PM0.60m | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | 1:34PM0.37m | 2:03AM0.19m | 2:35PM0.40m | 3:01AM0.21m | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | ||||||||
6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | |
— | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 19 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 |
— | — | 3192 | 1979 | 1617 | 1531 | 822 | 671 | 585 | 669 | 669 | 1031 | 822 | 572 | 479 | 239 | 353 | 3229 | 2829 | 2541 | 1121 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | WSW 18 | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 18 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SE 4 | — | WSW 18 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 22 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 214 | — | — | — | 15 | 32 | 80 | 240 | 2 | — | 31 | 66 | 104 | 308 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — | WSW 18 | SE 4 | SW 24 | SW 22 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 31 | — | — | — | — | 31 | 3 | 22 | 229 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NE 2 | E 3 | SE 4 | ESE 4 | SE 4 | SE 4 | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | WSW 16 |
2542 | 4568 | — | — | — | 5 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 5 | — | — | — | 7 | 34 | 21 | 3374 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 114 | 117 | 126 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 54 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











