Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer down at Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the first real shot of decent surf doesn’t show up until Sunday morning, July 19th. We’ve got a bit of a lag before that.

The standout period for the whole outlook is that Sunday morning, July 19th. We’ve got a clean 4ft swell running from the WSW with a period of 13 seconds, so some decent groundswell energy moving through. The wind is a light northerly at 6 mph, sitting cross-off, which should keep the surface tidy. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is a moderate 466, so plenty of push for a fun session. This is your best bet, hands down.

Sunday afternoon glassed off completely with a light 3 mph breeze from the NNW, but the swell drops a touch to 3ft. Surfable, but nothing to write home about. The energy drops to 390.

Monday the 20th sees a bit more size, but the wind picks up hard. The morning has a 4ft swell with a long 16-second period, but that 16 mph cross-off wind is going to make it messy. The afternoon is no better.

Tuesday the 21st is a bit of a tease. The morning has a 6ft swell with a 14-second period, but the wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-off. The energy is strong, hitting 1068, but the wind is just enough to put a wrinkle on it. The afternoon is cleaner with a lighter 9 mph breeze, and the swell sticks at 6ft. It’s a possibility, but the Sunday is cleaner.

From Wednesday the 22nd onwards, it gets ugly. We see a massive spike in southerly wind and rain, with the swell jumping to 12ft and even 15ft by Friday the 24th. The wind hits 31 mph, and the combined energy rockets into the thousands (4651 on Thursday morning). That’s big, angry, and blown-out surf. This is strictly for experts only if they even want to try it, and honestly, it looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. The wind is cross-on and onshore, and the period drops to 7 seconds on Wednesday afternoon, just making it a complete mess.

This messy, windy pattern sticks around through the weekend and into the following week. Monday the 27th still has 6ft swell but onshore gales. Tuesday the 28th has a cleaner 3ft swell from the SSW with a 15-second period, but the wind is still a moderate 16 mph cross-shore, which will keep it choppy.

The second week from July 29th onward is a write-off. The wind stays strong, the swell is small and disorganised, and the conditions are marked as poor. There’s a tiny window on Monday, August 3rd with a clean 4ft swell and a long 20-second period, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph and the call is marginal. It’s a long way off and very uncertain.

So, if you’re keen, Sunday morning, July 19th is the call. Get out early, enjoy the clean lines, and don’t bother with the rest of the week.

Rusty.

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