Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s get into it. Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Cape Paterson (Victoria) is a real mixed bag. We’re staring down the barrel of a massive swell mid-week, but it’s absolutely blown out. Then we’ve got to wait a while for a proper window to open up. Let’s break it down.

Right now, we’re in a bit of a holding pattern. The first real chance to get wet isn’t until Friday, the 31st of July. The morning of Friday the 31st is the first glimmer of hope. The swell is a clean 5 ft from the SW, with a groundswell period of 12 seconds, and we’ve got a light, cross-offshore breeze. The combined energy (532) is moderate, but it’s clean. That’s a solid start.

Saturday the 1st of August morning looks even better. The swell drops a touch to 3 ft, but it’s glassy with a light N wind. The combined energy is still moderate (566). That’s a nice, clean, small wave window for a cruisy session. The afternoon gets interesting, though. The swell bumps up to 5 ft and the period jumps to 17 seconds – a proper long-period groundswell. The combined energy is moderate (1191), and the wind goes light cross-shore. This kind of long period swell can be a bit tricky on the beach breaks, but it’ll have shape and power.

Sunday the 2nd of August is a write-off. The swell is still there at 6 ft, but it’s getting hammered by a strong 25 mph cross-offshore wind. That’s a no-go.

Then we hit a massive dry spell. From the 3rd of August right through to the morning of Friday the 7th, the wind is just too strong and onshore to bother. The swell is all over the place, but the conditions are ugly. One to skip.

The first real standout of the outlook is the morning of Saturday the 8th of August. The swell is 5 ft from the SW, with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy (1241) is moderate. But the big news is the wind: light ENE, cross-offshore, and it’s clean. This is a very good setup. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so you won’t need a thick wetsuit unless you feel the cold.

Sunday the 9th of August is the other highlight. The morning has a clean 4 ft SW swell with a light cross-offshore breeze. The afternoon? That’s the pick of the entire forecast. The swell is 4 ft from the SW, period is 16 seconds, and the wind goes glassy – a slight air. The combined energy (599) is moderate, but with glassy conditions, that’s a dream session. It’s a long period swell, so it’ll have that classic groundswell power and shape, just be ready for the sets to be a little spaced out.

The following week sees a return of strong cross-offshore winds, so Monday the 10th of August is marginal, and the 11th and 12th are messy. The morning of the 13th of August has a solid 8 ft WSW swell, but it’s being blown by a strong 28 mph cross-offshore wind. That’s expert-only territory, and honestly, it’s more likely to be a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

Look, for the best of the best, you’ve got to pencil in Saturday the 8th of August morning and Sunday the 9th of August afternoon. The Sunday afternoon is the real gem with that glassy session. The rest of the time, you’re either waiting for the wind to behave or sitting it out.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the forecasts.

Rusty.

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