Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s the picture for Cape Paterson (beach and reef) over the next couple of weeks.

Look, I’ll be straight with you – this is a pretty tough run for the next week or so. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only good news. We’ve got a long gap with no real surf on offer right through until the end of August and into the first week of September. The wind is strong, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the swell is often messy. There’s a flicker of hope on Friday 28 August morning with a 6ft WSW swell, period 13 seconds, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore and the energy’s moderate (2419), so it’s only marginal and really only for the experienced. The Friday afternoon sees a 8ft WSW swell with a very long period of 17 seconds and light offshore wind, which is a nice combo, but the combined energy is strong (3119) and the conditions are still described as marginal due to tide or quality. For a beach and reef setup, that long period groundswell can make it break a bit too straight, so keep that in mind.

The rest of that week and into the start of September is more of the same – poor conditions, strong winds, and lumpy, choppy seas. Nothing worth paddling out for. The energy is moderate to strong, but the wind just ruins it.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. We’ve got a standout on the horizon, but it’s a long way off. On Sunday 6 September afternoon, a massive 15ft WSW swell, period 14 seconds, with light onshore wind and a combined energy of 8015 – that’s very strong. However, the model says it’s too big for this break, so it’s a no-go. But then Monday 7 September is the real deal. Monday morning sees a 13ft WSW swell, period 15 seconds, with a moderate offshore wind from the east, and the energy is huge (12564). The conditions are described as marginal, but for experts, this is exceptional. By Monday afternoon, the wind drops to a light cross-offshore from the ENE, the swell holds at 13ft, period 14 seconds, and the energy is still massive (10313). This is the best on offer – big, powerful, clean waves for those who know what they’re doing. The crowd factor isn’t noted, but at a spot like this, it could be worth it.

After that, the wind turns nasty again, with strong onshores and blown-out conditions through the second week. There’s a few more days with big swell (10-13ft) but the wind is just too strong for any quality. The second week is a write-off.

So, in short: a long, frustrating start, but if you’re an expert, mark Monday 7 September in your calendar. That’s your window.

Rusty.

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