Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 11 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
14.2° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 9,095 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 4PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7AM (Thu 16th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 14s
Best Surf 7AM (Fri 17th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 16s
Most Powerful10PM (Mon 13th Jul)15ft (4.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – if you’re hanging for a surf at Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks, you’re gonna need a lot of patience. The forecast is a real mixed bag, with a lot of wind and messy conditions to wade through before we get any proper windows.

We start off pretty grim. This Saturday (July 11th) and Sunday (July 12th) are write-offs. Saturday’s got a 4ft WSW swell but the wind is howling at 25 mph, making it a total mess. Sunday is even worse – a massive 13ft to 15ft swell (combined energy of 5093 to 5399) but with near-gale winds, it’s unsurfable. That carries on through Monday and Tuesday (July 13th and 14th). We’re talking solid 12ft to 13ft groundswell (periods of 15 to 16 seconds, so long lines), but the wind is either howling cross or cross-onshore at 25 to 31 mph. It’s a washing machine out there. The wave energy is massive (6148 to 7248), but it’s all for nothing.

Wednesday (July 15th) sees the swell drop to 8ft, but we’re still stuck with a moderate cross-onshore wind and a choppy surface. It’s a marginal call at best.

Finally, we get a bit of relief. Thursday morning (July 16th) is the first real standout. We’ve got a clean 6ft WSW swell with a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the NNW. The combined energy is moderate (1120), and the conditions are clean. Cape Paterson (a beach and reef setup) should have some fun, lined-up waves. This is the best bet for the early part of the outlook.

Friday morning (July 17th) is another cracker. The swell holds at 7ft from the SW, with a nice long period of 16 seconds. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the north, making for clean conditions. The combined energy is strong (2328). This is a solid session for experienced surfers.

Saturday (July 18th) stays good, with a cleaner 5ft SW swell and light offshore winds in the morning, going glassy in the afternoon. Nice.

After that, the swell backs off a bit through to Wednesday (July 22nd), with small, clean waves in the 2ft to 6ft range but nothing to write home about.

Now, the real story is way out at the end of the forecast. Thursday, July 23rd, is the standout. We’re looking at a solid 10ft WSW groundswell with a long 16-second period. The wind is light offshore in the morning, going to glassy in the afternoon. The combined energy is very strong (4258). This is big, powerful swell for experts only. It’s two weeks away, so take it with a grain of salt, but if it holds, Cape Paterson will be pumping.

The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so nothing special there.

There’s a long gap of poor surf at the start – about 4 days of proper rubbish. Once we get past that, there are a few good windows, but you’ll be working for it. Keep an eye on that July 23rd date.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 37mm), heaviest during Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 9°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the N on Sat morning, near gales from the NW by Sun morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 11°C on Wed morning). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WNW by Thu afternoon).

Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
2
3
4
3
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.2
WSW
14
1
WSW
14
2.3
WNW
6
4
W
12
4.5
WSW
12
4
WSW
13
4
WSW
15
4
WSW
16
4.5
WSW
16
3.5
WSW
15
3.5
WSW
15
3
SW
15
2.4
SW
14
2.1
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
1.7
WSW
14
1.6
SW
14
1.6
SW
14
2.1
SW
16
2.1
SW
16
1.8
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
553
419
324
5093
5399
5434
7248
6807
9064
6148
6192
4135
2233
1594
1138
1111
1002
975
2328
2093
1340
Wind (km/h)
25
N
40
N
40
NW
55
NW
45
WNW
45
WNW
50
NW
45
NW
40
WNW
40
WSW
40
WSW
20
WSW
20
WNW
20
WNW
15
NW
15
NNW
10
WNW
10
N
10
N
10
S
10
NE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
off
High Tide
7:15PM0.72m
8:49AM0.73m
8:11PM0.71m
9:57AM0.74m
9:15PM0.70m
11:05AM0.75m
10:26PM0.70m
12:08PM0.78m
11:39PM0.71m
1:05PM0.80m
00:49AM0.73m
1:56PM0.82m
1:53AM0.74m
Low Tide
1:30PM0.31m
2:00AM0.05m
2:33PM0.34m
3:01AM0.04m
3:43PM0.35m
4:06AM0.03m
4:55PM0.34m
5:13AM0.02m
6:03PM0.31m
6:17AM0.02m
7:06PM0.26m
7:17AM0.03m
8:03PM0.21m
cloud
cloud
heavy rain
light rain
light rain
mod rain
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:33
7:31
7:31
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:10
5:12
5:13
5:13
5:14
5:15
5:15
 mm
13
3
5
7
1
8
1
2
Temp °C
14
14
10
11
12
12
13
14
13
12
12
12
11
12
14
13
14
14
13
13
13
Feels °C
7
6
0
1
3
3
3
5
4
3
3
6
7
8
11
10
12
11
10
11
10
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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