Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 17 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 18 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 3,340 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 18th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Tue 18th Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Sat 22nd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for the Cape Paterson region. We’ve got a long window ahead, but for the next week and a half you’re going to be fighting the wind more than the waves. The water’s sitting at 56°F at Cape Paterson, which is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.
Right now, through Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th of August, there’s a little bit of life in the water. The swell is coming from the SW at around 4 ft to 5 ft, with a period of 14 to 16 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, but the energy is moderate (777 to 789). The wind is a gentle offshore or cross-off, so it’ll be clean. It’s not big, but for a Monday morning, it’s a chance to get wet.
Then, from Wednesday the 19th through to the end of the month, things get messy. Winds swing cross-shore or onshore, mostly from the NW and W, blowing 12 to 25 mph, and the swell is all over the place – from 2 ft to 8 ft. The energy is moderate to strong (up to 3040), but the wind is putting a lumpy chop on everything. On Saturday the 22nd, the swell hits 8 ft from the WSW with a 15-second period, but it’s cross-on and choppy – that’s expert territory, and even then, it’s not pretty.
The real standout in this whole forecast is way out there, but it’s worth waiting for. On Monday the 31st of August, we’ve got a beast of a groundswell rolling in from the WSW at 10 ft, with a 17-second period – that’s a very long period swell. The energy is massive (10633), and the wind is a light, clean cross-off from the NNE, with morning glass on the cards. This is exceptional surf, but it’s only for experts – that size and period will be powerful and likely too much for your average frother. The water temp is missing, but the setup is clean. That’s your best bet in the whole 16 days, but it’s a long way out, so keep your fingers crossed it holds.
Sunday the 30th of August morning also looks promising – 5 ft from the SW at 15 seconds, with glassy conditions and no wind. That’s a nice, clean option for a wave rider, but the big one is the 31st. For the rest of the window, you’re better off waiting for a change in the wind.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Tue morning, fresh winds from the N by Wed morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 777 | 1184 | 1103 | 701 | 581 | 282 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 687 | 828 | 787 | 595 | 1265 | 2714 | 2920 | 3040 | 2594 | 2053 | 1553 | 1822 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross |
High Tide | 2:57PM0.80m | 3:31AM0.77m | 3:35PM0.80m | 4:16AM0.77m | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | 7:04AM0.66m | 6:31PM0.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:17PM0.08m | 9:31AM0.16m | 9:57PM0.06m | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | 12:46PM0.34m | 1:13AM0.16m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | |  | |  | |
 | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — |
 | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 777 | 1184 | 1103 | 701 | 581 | 282 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 269 | 828 | 787 | 595 | 1265 | 2714 | 2920 | 3040 | 2594 | 2053 | 1553 | 1822 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 17 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 18 | WSW 7 | — | — | — | — | SW 18 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 88 | — | 127 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 128 | 137 | — | 474 | 534 | 181 | — | — | — | — | 80 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ESE 5 | — | ESE 4 | SE 7 | — | SE 7 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | 9 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 87 | 101 | — | 248 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 4 | ESE 4 | E 4 | E 5 | SE 6 | NE 2 | N 4 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | W 10 | NW 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | — | WSW 7 | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 6 |
| kJ | 7 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 74 | 47 | 687 | 8 | 7 | 11 | — | 252 | — | — | — | — | — | 71 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 38 | 23 | 113 | 5 | 41 | 5 | 113 | 105 | 114 | 23 | 5 | 113 | 113 | 113 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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