Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 7,043 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 28 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 12s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 12s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Tue 28th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here, looking at what we’ve got lined up for the Cape Paterson region over the next couple of weeks. Gotta say, the start is a bit of a write-off, but there’s some serious promise if you’re willing to wait.
The first week is a real mixed bag, and honestly, mostly not worth your time. We kick off on the 21st with some small, cross-off wind, but it’s marginal at best. By the 23rd and 24th, a big swell fills in, but it’s coming in with near gale-force cross-onshore winds, blowing everything to bits. We’re talking 10 ft to 12 ft of messy, lumpy junk with very strong wave energy (over 4800). This is not a paddle session; with all that strong onshore wind and a beach/reef setup, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. That ugly weather sticks around through the 26th.
Things start to change as we head into the 28th. The swell is still massive, 13 ft, but the wind eases right back. The Tuesday morning of the 28th brings a 13 ft SW groundswell (very long 15 second period) with just a gentle cross-onshore. That’s big, heavy water, and it’s only going to be clean enough for experienced surfers who know the reef.
Now, the standout window. Wednesday the 29th morning is your best bet. Cape Paterson (Cape Paterson) will have clean, glassy conditions with slight air. The swell drops to a still-chunky 8 ft from the SW with a long period of 15 seconds (very long period groundswell). This is where it’ll be at its best for experienced surfers, with solid power and clean faces. The wave energy is strong at 2295, giving you proper push. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.
Following that, the 30th morning also looks fun with 6 ft SW groundswell and glassy wind, but it won't quite have the same punch. We then see the surf taper off towards the 1st of August before a new, cleaner period arrives around the 4th. That Tuesday morning of the 4th shows 6 ft of long-period SW groundswell (19 seconds) with clean cross-off wind, offering up some decent, lined-up waves for the more advanced crew.
The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about average for the time of year. There’s a lot of waiting, but trust me, that Wednesday the 29th is the one to circle on the calendar.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Tue afternoon, strong winds from the WSW by Thu afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun afternoon, min 10°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri afternoon, light winds from the NW by Sun afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1138 | 878 | 534 | 294 | 235 | 1291 | 3842 | 4942 | 2824 | 5506 | 1669 | 2434 | 2545 | 2150 | 1440 | 845 | 543 | 382 | 298 | 437 | 1631 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:44PM0.80m | 5:28AM0.72m | 5:21PM0.76m | 6:14AM0.70m | 5:57PM0.73m | 7:01AM0.68m | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:36AM0.17m | 11:11PM0.08m | 11:19AM0.22m | 11:51PM0.09m | 12:01PM0.27m | 00:31AM0.11m | 12:43PM0.31m | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | |||||||
 | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | — | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 6 | WSW 12 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | — | — | SW 12 | — | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | W 20 |
| kJ | 1138 | 878 | 534 | 133 | 235 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1669 | — | — | 118 | — | 845 | 543 | 382 | 298 | 437 | 7 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | WSW 12 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — |
| kJ | 12 | 11 | 11 | 294 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 10 | 55 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 15 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 42 | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | W 6 | WSW 11 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 9 | SW 15 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 11 | — | NW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 11 |
| kJ | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 194 | 1291 | 3842 | 4942 | 2824 | 5506 | 891 | 2434 | 2545 | 2150 | 1440 | — | 3 | 3 | 37 | 122 | 1631 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 49 | 23 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 466 | 117 | 114 | 421 | 117 | 141 | 81 | 113 | 114 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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