Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period, SW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 23 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 17s period, SW swell with 3,610 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 8ft (2.5m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, it's Rusty here with a look at what's heading our way for Cape Paterson. The next couple of weeks are a mixed bag – we've got some real promise but plenty of wind-battered days to wade through too.
The best run starts Sunday afternoon, August 16th, with a clean 5 ft SW swell, period a solid 14 seconds giving the waves some real shape. The water's sitting at 56°F, which is pretty average for the time of year. Wind is a cross-off from the SE at 9 mph, and the combined energy is moderate, reading 991. The offshore direction from the NE is the go-to for clean conditions here, so while that's not what's blowing, it's still tidy.
Monday, August 17th, holds similar energy but be wary of iffy tides. Morning is cross-off with a 5 ft SW swell (period 14s, energy 777), but the afternoon picks up with a solid 5 ft SW swell and a longer period of 16 seconds, energy jumping to 1271. That longer period groundswell will mean more power and longer lulls between sets. The wind gets grunty though – ESE at 15 mph – so not as clean as you'd want.
Now Tuesday, August 18th, is where it gets interesting. The morning is a standout in this outlook: light offshore ENE breeze at 6 mph, perfect for grooming that 4 ft WSW swell. With a period of 14 seconds and moderate energy at 789, the break should be clean and punchy. The afternoon holds similar vibes with a 4 ft SW swell, cross-off wind, and energy of 589. This is the pick of the first week for sure.
After that, it gets patchy. Wednesday the 19th sees the swell drop to under 3 ft, with poor conditions. The whole period from Wednesday afternoon through to Monday August 24th is a write-off. Swell sticks around between 4 ft and 8 ft at times, but the wind is relentless – mostly cross and onshore, sometimes gusting 15-22 mph, even up to 34 mph. That 8 ft WSW swell on Saturday August 22nd would be intimidating, but with onshore wind and strong energy (3062), it's a mess.
There's a small window on the morning of Friday, August 28th. It's glassy – wind straight from the east at just 3 mph. The swell is a tiny 2 ft, but it's a very long-period SW groundswell at 19 seconds. Energy is moderate at 488. That long-period groundswell will wrap around but at beach breaks it might close out, so think about the reefs and points. Worth a look for a longboard if you're patient.
Then we hit the true highlight of the whole outlook. Saturday, August 29th morning: clear skies, light offshore NNW breeze at 6 mph, and a solid 7 ft WSW swell. The period is 13 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 1799. This one has quality written all over it – big, clean, and very promising. It's a big wave though, over 8 ft is only for experts, so 7 ft is still pushing it for beginners. You'll want to be comfortable out there. Crowds can pop up here sometimes, so get in early.
The rest of the month fades into windy, northwesterly slop. By the end of the month, it's onshore and messy again.
So, to sum it up: don't bother with the middle of the week. Your best shots are Tuesday morning the 18th and Saturday morning the 29th. The 29th has the size and the wind, the 18th has the cleanliness and a bit less swell.
This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the ENE on Tue morning, fresh winds from the N by Wed morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed night, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | W 10 | W 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
988 | 811 | 777 | 1271 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 282 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 556 | 878 | 1139 | 1150 | 1748 | 2907 | 3062 | 2998 | 2919 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | on | on | cross |
High Tide | 2:42AM0.76m | 2:57PM0.80m | 3:31AM0.77m | 3:35PM0.80m | 4:16AM0.77m | 4:11PM0.78m | 4:58AM0.75m | 4:46PM0.76m | 5:39AM0.72m | 5:20PM0.73m | 6:20AM0.69m | 5:54PM0.69m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:33PM0.12m | 8:47AM0.13m | 9:17PM0.08m | 9:31AM0.16m | 9:57PM0.06m | 10:12AM0.19m | 10:36PM0.06m | 10:50AM0.23m | 11:13PM0.08m | 11:28AM0.27m | 11:51PM0.11m | 12:05PM0.30m | 00:30AM0.13m | |||||||
— | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | |
5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | SW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 14 | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 17 | — | WSW 12 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | WSW 15 |
988 | 811 | 777 | 1271 | 1103 | 701 | 589 | 282 | 257 | 229 | 268 | 222 | 137 | — | 907 | 1748 | 2162 | 3062 | 2998 | 2919 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SW 19 | — | SW 16 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | WSW 21 | WSW 18 | SW 17 | — | WSW 15 | WSW 18 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 88 | — | 127 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 128 | 103 | — | 302 | 559 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 5 | — | ESE 4 | — | — | ESE 6 | E 7 | E 6 | — | SW 19 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | 380 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 5 | E 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | E 5 | ESE 5 | NE 2 | N 3 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | W 10 | W 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | — | WSW 16 | NNW 4 | — | — |
3 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 55 | 556 | 878 | 1139 | 1150 | — | 2907 | 10 | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 44 | 20 | 20 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 76 | 5 | 23 | 113 | 5 | 35 | 113 | 126 | 117 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











