Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 22 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.5° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 21 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with 5,116 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 16s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6.5ft (2.0m) 16s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)6.5ft (2.0m) 16s
Most Powerful 1PM (Sat 22nd Aug)11ft (3.5m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming our way for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a rough start. Saturday the 22nd is a washout – strong onshore winds, messy, lumpy surf pushing 12 feet. That’s one for the kite crew, not for paddle surfing. The whole first week is a bit of a battle, honestly. There’s a gap of a few days with no real joy, just marginal conditions and bumpy seas.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on the morning of Monday the 24th. The wind goes clean, cross-offshore, and we’ve got a 5 feet SW groundswell rolling in with a long period of 14 seconds. The energy is still moderate (822), but the clean conditions make it a worthwhile paddle for the experienced surfer. Tuesday the 25th afternoon keeps that promise with a similar 5 feet SW swell and clean conditions – that’s a solid session for the crew who know the reef.

Now, the first standout to really get excited about is the morning of Friday the 28th. We’re looking at a solid 7 feet WSW groundswell with a very long period of 17 seconds. The energy is pumping (2829), and the wind is clean, cross-off. That’s proper groundswell energy, so the point and reef setups will be the go – it’s going to be lined up and powerful. At 7 feet, this is for the experts. It’s the pick of the first week, no doubt.

The second week brings more potential. Sunday the 30th morning has a 4 feet SW swell, but the period is a massive 19 seconds – very long period. The combined energy is up there (2568). The wind is light, cross-onshore, just a bit of ripple. That’s a sneaky, clean session for the guys who know the break. Then Monday the 31st morning gives us a clean 7 feet SW swell with a 16-second period (2138 energy). That’s another expert-level day, but with the long period, those waves will be holding up beautifully.

The best on offer, though, looks to be the morning of Thursday the 3rd of September. Clean, cross-offshore breeze, a 6 feet WSW groundswell (15 seconds, 1590 energy), and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the one I’d be circling. The waves will have shape, power, and it’ll be uncrowded if you’re early.

The following Saturday the 5th of September morning also looks clean with a 6 feet SW swell, but the energy is a bit lower (996). Still a fun session, but not the standout.

Overall, we’ve got a few windows of clean, powerful groundswell. The long-period swells (over 15 seconds) mean the beach breaks might be a bit straight, but the reefs and points will be firing. For the experts, the 28th of August and the 3rd of September are the days to be out there. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises there.

Stay stoked, and keep your eye on those clean windows.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Some drizzle, heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Sat morning, light winds from the NE by Sun afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Tue morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 11°C on Tue morning). Winds increasing (calm on Tue night, fresh winds from the NW by Thu night).

Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
2
2
2
0
1
2
2
1
2
0
0
2
1
1
2
1
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
WSW
10
3.5
WSW
14
3
SW
14
2.3
SW
14
2.1
SW
14
1.8
SW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.4
SW
13
1.6
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.3
WSW
13
1.2
SW
13
0.9
WSW
12
1.1
SW
12
2.1
WSW
19
2.2
WSW
17
2.2
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2542
4568
3192
1979
1617
1531
822
671
585
669
669
1031
822
572
479
239
353
3229
2829
2541
3374
Wind (km/h)
35
W
25
WSW
20
W
15
NW
10
WSW
20
NNW
25
NNW
15
NW
10
ENE
10
ESE
10
SE
10
S
10
S
10
SSW
5
E
15
NNW
10
WNW
25
NNW
30
WNW
25
SW
20
SSW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
on
on
High Tide
5:54PM0.69m
7:04AM0.66m
6:31PM0.66m
7:55AM0.63m
7:14PM0.63m
8:55AM0.62m
8:08PM0.60m
10:03AM0.62m
9:17PM0.58m
11:07AM0.63m
10:35PM0.58m
12:01PM0.66m
11:47PM0.60m
Low Tide
12:05PM0.30m
00:30AM0.13m
12:46PM0.34m
1:13AM0.16m
1:34PM0.37m
2:03AM0.19m
2:35PM0.40m
3:01AM0.21m
3:50PM0.40m
4:07AM0.22m
5:06PM0.38m
5:11AM0.21m
6:07PM0.33m
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:50
6:48
6:47
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:45
5:46
5:46
5:47
5:49
5:50
5:51
 mm
1
2
2
2
5
1
Temp °C
12
12
12
11
13
12
15
16
15
13
11
12
13
13
12
14
16
14
11
12
11
Feels °C
4
6
7
8
11
8
10
12
12
10
9
12
11
11
11
11
14
8
5
7
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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