Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, classic Cape Paterson. It’s a beach and reef setup that’s sheltered and needs a good SW swell to work, and the optimum is from the SW. Straight up, this is a tough run for the next couple of weeks. The wind is the big problem – it’s almost always onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is often cranking but messy. There’s a lot of energy in the water, but it’s not for paddling. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than normal for this time of year – not a huge deal, but a bit of a surprise.

We start with Saturday the 5th, and it’s a write-off. Strong cross-onshore wind at 25 mph from the WNW, with an 8ft SW swell at a 15 second period. The energy is huge (4019), but it’s just a messy, dangerous mess. Not for surfers. Sunday the 6th is barely better – onshore winds and an 8ft SW swell, but it's marginal at best. The trend continues all through the week. Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th are poor, with cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. The swell is still solid, but the wind is just killing it.

The first real flicker of hope comes on Saturday the 12th. The morning looks clean with a light breeze from the N at 6 mph, a 7ft SW swell at a nice 16 second period. That’s a solid groundswell. The energy is still strong (2054). This is the best on offer for the whole outlook. It’s a good one for experienced surfers – the swell is over 5ft, so it’s not for learners. The only downer is that the exposure to swell is sheltered, so you need the direction to be perfect. This one is promising, but it’s a one-off.

After that, it’s back to the grind. Sunday the 13th blows out with a 22 mph NW wind. Monday the 14th has a brief clean window with a NNW wind, but the swell is only 4ft and the energy is weak (564). Not worth the paddle. Then we get a big, lumpy, cross-onshore mess from the 14th afternoon through the 15th and 16th. The swell is 10ft+ but the wind is 15-19 mph onshore – this is kite-surfing territory, not a surfboard.

Then, the standout of the second week. Thursday the 17th morning. Glassy. Flat calm. A 10ft SW swell at a 16 second period. The energy is massive (4027). This is a powerful, clean groundswell for experienced surfers only. Over 8ft, it’s expert territory. The long period will make it punchy and the sets will be spaced out, so paddling out is easier, but the wave itself will be heavy. At a beach and reef break, that long period swell can be a bit straight, but the reef might hold it. This is a big call, but if the wind holds, this is the best of the whole run. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it.

The final days from the 18th to the 20th are a write-off again. Strong winds, lumpy, and messy. The 20th has an 12ft WSW swell with a short 8 second period and cross-onshore winds – another one for the kites.

So, bottom line: this is a tough outlook for Cape Paterson. The swell is there, but the wind is almost always wrong. The two best windows are Saturday the 12th morning and Thursday the 17th morning. Mark them down, but be ready to pull the pin if the wind changes.

Rusty.

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