Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 3 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 8,772 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 10PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for Cape Paterson is a rough one for the paddle surfer. The first week is pretty much a write-off, and even the second week only offers a couple of fleeting moments that might be worth a look if you’re desperate. The wind is the main villain here; it’s just relentless. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won’t be feeling it with all that wind.
We’ve got a gap of nearly a week before there’s anything even worth mentioning. The first real chance to get a board wet doesn’t come until Friday, the 11th of September. That morning, the wind drops to nothing – glassy conditions – and we’ve got a 5ft swell rolling in from the SW with a period of 15 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell with some serious energy behind it (1091). The wave energy is moderate, but the clean conditions make it the standout of the whole outlook. The break here is a beach and reef setup, and it’s an advanced wave, so only experts should be paddling out. It’s fairly consistent here, and crowds are possible, so keep an eye out. The only downside is that a long-period swell like this can break a bit straight on a beach, but with the reef, it might just hold its shape.
After that, things get messy again. The following Thursday, the 17th of September, the afternoon shows another window of glassy conditions, with a 5ft SW swell, period of 12 seconds, and moderate energy (782). It’s not as powerful as the earlier swell, but it’s clean. That’s about it. The rest of the period is plagued by brutal cross-onshore winds, often gale-force, creating poor, messy surf. The combined energy is often through the roof (over 4000 in some cases), but it’s useless for a paddle surfer – you’d be better off looking at this for a kite session. For a 16-day outlook, this is a grim run. It’s a shame because the potential is there, but the wind just won’t let up. Hang in there, and keep an eye on the forecasts.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Fri afternoon, near gales from the NW by Sat morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon night, fresh winds from the SSW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 6 | SW 8 | SW 9 | SW 12 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 21 | SW 19 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4553 | 5668 | 5594 | 4963 | 4213 | 3158 | 2014 | 2667 | 1827 | 1573 | 1305 | 718 | 261 | 1350 | 816 | 817 | 951 | 1356 | 2150 | 8075 | 7625 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 3:41PM0.78m | 4:32AM0.80m | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:04PM0.03m | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — |
 | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — |
mm | 2 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Feels °C | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | WSW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 22 | WSW 14 | SW 20 | SW 12 | SW 13 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 21 | SW 19 |
| kJ | — | — | 5594 | 4963 | 4213 | 3158 | 2014 | — | 523 | 1573 | 1305 | 718 | 18 | 36 | 312 | 805 | 734 | 1356 | 2150 | 8075 | 7625 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 16 | SW 22 | WSW 21 | SW 14 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | SW 25 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | 81 | 99 | 18 | 88 | 147 | 817 | 951 | — | 159 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 20 | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | — | — | — | — | 246 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 6 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | — | — | — | WSW 6 | SW 8 | SW 9 | — | WSW 3 | SW 5 | SW 15 | SSW 6 | SSW 6 |
| kJ | 4553 | 5668 | — | 12 | 4 | 24 | 160 | 2667 | 1827 | — | — | — | 261 | 1350 | 816 | — | 4 | 57 | 1799 | 193 | 103 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 117 | 117 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 496 | 447 | 117 | 54 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 39 | 5 | 117 | 421 | 552 | 1340 | 81 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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