Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 21s period, SW swell with 11,648 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 21s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 21s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down Cape Paterson over the next couple weeks. It’s a rough start, but there’s a couple of windows if you’re keen.
Right off the bat, Friday the 4th is not the day. We’ve got a solid 10ft WSW groundswell with a long 16-second period, and combined energy is massive at 4963, but that northwest wind is cross and strong at 30 km/h. It’s lumpy and only for the hardcore advanced crew. Water’s sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so not a shock but nice.
The whole first week is pretty much a write-off. Saturday the 5th through to Monday the 7th are all zero-score days with onshore winds and messy conditions – Saturday afternoon even has a risk of thunderstorms and 45 km/h WNW winds. Not worth paddling out. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th stay poor, with Wednesday afternoon seeing a massive 13ft SW groundswell at 19 seconds and combined energy of 10597, but it’s blowing strong onshore – that’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. Thursday the 10th is similar: 12ft to 10ft SW swell but onshore wind keeps it ugly.
We hit a dry spell with no real recommendations from the 4th right through until the middle of the second week. That’s about 12 days of marginal or poor conditions.
Now, the standout finally shows up on Wednesday the 16th, afternoon. Cape Paterson sees a 15ft WSW swell, period 9 seconds, combined energy of 2811. The wind is light cross-onshore from the SSW at just 5 km/h, so the conditions are favorable. But here’s the catch: at 15ft, this is only for experts. It’s a big, powerful swell for this sheltered reef and beach setup. The swell direction is WSW, which matches that optimum SW direction pretty well. Clean, but big. That’s your best bet in the whole outlook.
Thursday the 17th goes back to slop with 18ft onshore junk, and Friday the 18th is still marginal with clean-ish cross-shore winds but 12ft SW groundswell – still on the big side but not as clean. By Saturday the 19th morning, we get a nice drop to 6ft SW groundswell with 16-second period, light NNW cross-offshore breeze, and clean conditions – a solid, more manageable option for those who missed the big Wednesday wave.
Overall, if you’re an expert with a big-wave board, mark Wednesday the 16th afternoon. If you want smaller and cleaner, Saturday the 19th morning is your window. The rest… well, it’s a waiting game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 23mm), heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 11°C on Fri morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the N on Fri night, near gales from the W by Sat night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Mon night, strong winds from the SW by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | W 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | SW 7 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4963 | 4367 | 3158 | 1987 | 3371 | 4608 | 1602 | 2181 | 1333 | 325 | 372 | 1037 | 837 | 874 | 1552 | 2053 | 10597 | 10085 | 7009 | 5264 | 3058 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:27AM0.21m | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | |
 | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — |
 | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
mm | — | — | 9 | 6 | 2 | 5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | SW 15 | WSW 14 | WSW 16 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | SW 13 | SW 13 | WSW 13 | SW 16 | SW 16 | — | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 4963 | 4367 | 3158 | 1987 | — | — | 78 | 2181 | 25 | 260 | 372 | 1037 | 837 | 546 | 1552 | 2053 | — | 10085 | 7009 | 5264 | 3058 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 13 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 26 | SW 22 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 55 | 85 | 312 | 628 | 874 | 27 | 671 | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | SW 21 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 71 | 248 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | W 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 10 | — | WSW 12 | SW 7 | SSW 7 | — | W 3 | SW 5 | WSW 6 | SW 8 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SSW 6 | SSW 5 | SSW 5 |
| kJ | — | 8 | 15 | 92 | 3371 | 4608 | 1602 | — | 1333 | 325 | 154 | — | 3 | 33 | 200 | 1058 | 10597 | 8119 | 113 | 40 | 32 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 23 | 5 | 5 | 364 | 429 | 244 | 117 | 113 | 117 | 285 | 346 | 39 | 5 | 35 | 41 | 421 | 887 | 437 | 81 | 45 | 45 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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