Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 12s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 19s period, SW swell with 9,050 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 6s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.5m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 9th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk about Cape Paterson in feet and miles per hour.
First off, the opening stretch is a bust. From Friday 4th September, we’ve got decent swell but the wind is howling – cross-shore, cross-on, and onshore – making it all choppy and messy. The combined wave energy is huge, with readings up to 15353 on the 9th, but it’s all wind-blown junk. On the 9th, we’re looking at a 12ft SW swell with a 19-second period, but it’s accompanied by a fresh cross-onshore breeze and lumpy conditions – that’s more for the kite surfers than anyone paddling. Water temp is 57°F, about normal for the time of year.
Your one true standout is Sunday morning, 13th September. The wind drops to a light offshore from the north at just 3 mph, leaving the waves clean. We’ve got a 6ft SW swell with a 15-second period (long-period groundswell), and the combined energy is a solid 1374. That’s a proper window of clean, lined-up waves. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, so that long-period swell will be better for the reef sections – it can get a bit fat and straight on the beach. Still, with glassy conditions, this is the best session on offer. Crowds are sometimes here, so you might have a few mates out, but it won’t be a circus.
After that, Monday 14th is a step back with fresh winds and dropping swell, and the rest of the second week is mostly poor or marginal. There’s a flicker of hope on Saturday 19th September morning – a 7ft WSW swell with a short 8-second period, but the wind is offshore from the north at 3 mph, so it’s clean. The combined energy is 1038, so it’s punchy, but that short period means it’ll be a bit crumbly and soft on the beach. Still, it’s surfable, and the glassy conditions make it worth a look if you’re keen.
Bottom line: don’t bother with the first week unless you’re a glutton for wind. Lock in Sunday 13th for the best of the run. The 19th is a potential bonus, but it’s a long way out and could change.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 11°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Sat night, light winds from the WSW by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 8°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Mon night, strong winds from the SSW by Tue night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | SW 9 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4466 | 3158 | 1987 | 1341 | 3915 | 928 | 1578 | 628 | 341 | 438 | 827 | 649 | 874 | 1449 | 5245 | 9050 | 6610 | 5343 | 4313 | 2868 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 4:18PM0.78m | 5:16AM0.79m | 4:57PM0.77m | 6:05AM0.77m | 5:41PM0.75m | 6:58AM0.73m | 6:32PM0.72m | 7:59AM0.70m | 7:34PM0.69m | 9:07AM0.69m | 8:50PM0.66m | 10:16AM0.68m | 10:15PM0.66m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:45PM0.02m | 11:08AM0.24m | 11:30PM0.02m | 11:54AM0.27m | 00:19AM0.04m | 12:45PM0.30m | 1:15AM0.07m | 1:47PM0.32m | 2:19AM0.11m | 3:00PM0.33m | 3:32AM0.15m | 4:19PM0.30m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  | |  | | |  | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — |
 | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — |
mm | — | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | — | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 16 |
| kJ | 4466 | 3158 | 1987 | 1341 | — | 581 | 1578 | 628 | 341 | 438 | 827 | 649 | 604 | 1449 | 1765 | 6303 | 6610 | 5343 | 4313 | 2868 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 6 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 18 | SW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 90 | 25 | 85 | 71 | 312 | 628 | 874 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 22 | WSW 21 | WSW 20 | — | S 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 44 | 342 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 6 | W 6 | WSW 10 | SW 9 | — | WSW 6 | SW 6 | SSW 7 | — | — | — | WSW 6 | SW 16 | SW 19 | SSW 7 | SSW 6 | — | — |
| kJ | 18 | 14 | 133 | 392 | 3915 | 928 | — | 179 | 181 | 125 | — | — | — | 115 | 5245 | 9050 | 195 | 77 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 364 | 429 | 284 | 81 | 114 | 113 | 421 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 421 | 284 | 81 | 81 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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