Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 20 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
14.0° C
0.8° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:

  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 15s period, SW swell with 6,460 kJ wave energy.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)--
Best Surf--
Most Powerful 4AM (Fri 24th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 15s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s on the cards for Cape Paterson.

Straight up, we’ve got a long, frustrating wait ahead. The first week and a half is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. The wind is all over the shop, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the sea state is lumpy, choppy, or just plain messy. There’s plenty of swell energy out there, with readings often in the four-figure range (like 527 on the 20th, ramping up to 5998 on the 24th), but it’s all blown to bits. The swell is solid, pushing 7ft to 12ft from the 22nd onward, but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. Not worth your time.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday, July 28th. The morning sees a bit of a cross-off breeze from the NNW, cleaning up a solid 12ft SW swell (12-second period, 3741 energy). It’s still a marginal call, but the afternoon is where it gets interesting. Winds shift to a clean cross-off from the NNW, with a 15ft swell from the WSW (10-second period, 4678 energy). The forecast says it’s wind and tide favorable, but that size is a beast. At 15ft, this is strictly for experts only – the wave energy is huge and it’s going to be a challenging, heavy session. Still, on a good day, that’s a proper, powerful wave.

Following that, Wednesday July 29th stays big with a 13ft SW groundswell (15-second period, 6872 energy) and a strong cross-off breeze, but again, it’s a marginal call and that size is for the brave only. The energy drops steadily after that.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, lands on Friday, August 1st. We get a beautiful morning with zero wind – glassy conditions – and a clean 5ft SW swell (12-second period, 956 energy). That’s a perfect size for a good session, clean, and with the right direction. The afternoon stays clean with a gentle cross-off from the east. Then Saturday, August 2nd, gives us two more gems: a morning with a gentle offshore from the NE, and a 5ft SW swell (13-second period, 790 energy), followed by an afternoon with glassy conditions and the same 5ft SW swell. That’s a weekend of clean, rideable, and manageable surf. The water temp is about 57°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so it’s a standard winter wetsuit job.

The following week tails off with building wind and smaller, weaker swell, so the focus is definitely on that last weekend of July and the first couple of days in August.

To sum it up: the first week is a bust. Don’t bother. The big swell on the 28th and 29th is for the experienced crew only. The best bet for the average surfer is the glassy, clean conditions on Friday, August 1st and Saturday, August 2nd. That’s your window.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Tue afternoon, fresh winds from the WSW by Thu morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 11°C on Thu afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Thu afternoon, moderate winds from the WSW by Sat afternoon).

Mon
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WSW
12
0.8
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
13
1.3
WSW
12
1.5
W
8
2
WSW
12
2.2
SW
11
3
WSW
14
3
WSW
14
4
WSW
9
3.5
SW
16
2
SW
15
3.5
WSW
14
3
WSW
13
3
WSW
12
2.5
WSW
12
2.5
WSW
11
2.1
WSW
11
2
WSW
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
293
268
1017
878
534
298
1047
1070
3052
3483
2174
5998
1785
4558
3341
2875
1783
1510
1030
887
Wind (km/h)
20
WNW
20
NW
20
NNW
15
NW
30
NNW
35
NW
30
W
35
WSW
35
WSW
45
WSW
45
WSW
35
W
40
WNW
45
W
35
WSW
30
WSW
25
W
30
W
30
WNW
30
WSW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
High Tide
4:06PM0.82m
4:39AM0.74m
4:44PM0.80m
5:28AM0.72m
5:21PM0.76m
6:14AM0.70m
5:57PM0.73m
7:01AM0.68m
6:33PM0.69m
7:50AM0.65m
7:12PM0.66m
8:44AM0.64m
7:56PM0.63m
Low Tide
10:28PM0.09m
10:36AM0.17m
11:11PM0.08m
11:19AM0.22m
11:51PM0.09m
12:01PM0.27m
00:31AM0.11m
12:43PM0.31m
1:13AM0.13m
1:29PM0.35m
1:57AM0.16m
2:21PM0.38m
2:48AM0.17m
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
clear
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
part cloud
light rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:17
5:17
5:19
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
 mm
3
6
3
2
3
1
4
2
1
2
3
2
Temp °C
14
13
12
14
12
12
12
11
10
11
11
11
11
13
12
12
12
12
12
13
Feels °C
9
8
7
10
7
5
6
3
1
1
0
3
2
4
5
6
7
6
6
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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