Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 26 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 15s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, WSW swell with 2,987 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 27 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 12s period with WSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 27) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.3m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Thu 27th Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Wed 2nd Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming up for us.
The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag, with more wind and mess than clean surf. The water’s sitting at 57°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s something nice when you’re sitting out there.
We’ve got a bit of a slow start. For the first few days, through Wednesday the 26th and into Thursday the 27th, it’s pretty average. Wednesday morning sees a 5ft swell from the WSW with a 14-second period, but it’s blowing a 12 mph onshore southwesterly, so it’s messy. The energy’s there – moderate at 1075 – but the wind’s ruining it. Thursday morning at Cape Paterson is a bit cleaner with a 4ft WSW swell and a 9 mph cross-offshore NW wind, making for some surfable waves, but it’s nothing to write home about.
Friday the 28th is a bit of a tease. The swell picks up to 6ft in the morning from the WSW, period 13 seconds, but the wind is a moderate cross-onshore WNW at 12 mph, creating chop. The energy jumps up to a strong 2274, but the conditions just aren’t there. Friday afternoon sees an even bigger 8ft swell from the SW at a very long 17 seconds – that’s proper groundswell – but again, onshore wind from the SW spoils it. That 2991 energy reading tells you there’s a lot of power, but it’s messy.
Saturday the 29th through Monday the 31st is more of the same: consistent swell in the 5ft to 6ft range, but cross-onshore winds keep it choppy and poor. Monday morning is the most interesting of this bunch – a 6ft SW swell with a long 15-second period and only a light cross-shore NW wind at 6 mph. The energy is strong at 1615, and the wind is light, but it’s cross-shore, so it’s not perfect. Still, it’s a marginal call.
Tuesday the 1st of September is a write-off. Strong to near-gale winds, up to 25 mph, make it ugly despite a 5ft SW groundswell. Forget it.
Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday the 2nd of September is the pick of the lot. The morning session at Cape Paterson is looking magic. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the WSW with a 15-second period – that’s long-period groundswell, quality stuff – and the wind is glassy, dead still from the ENE at 3 mph. The energy is strong at 1937, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s got size, it’s got period, and it’s glassy. That’s a paddler’s dream. Just be aware, long-period swells like this can line up a bit straight on a beach break, but Cape Pat’s reef and beach setup should handle it alright. Crowds are only “sometimes” there, so you might get a few out, but it won’t be a zoo.
The rest of the first week and into the second week is all wind-ruined. There’s plenty of swell – even some massive 10ft to 12ft stuff from the WSW around the 5th, 6th, and 7th – but the wind is just howling onshore or cross-onshore, making it a complete mess. That 12ft swell on Sunday the 6th with a 16 mph onshore wind is only for the foolhardy. For anyone else, it’s a miss.
Later in the second week, we get another glimpse of hope. Tuesday the 8th of September morning has a 8ft WSW swell with a gentle cross-shore NW wind at 9 mph. It’s still a bit lumpy, but the energy is strong at 2363, and the wave comment says marginal. Wednesday the 9th afternoon is actually looking good again: a 4ft SW swell with a 15-second period, a cross-offshore NW wind at 9 mph, and the comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a smaller, cleaner day for a cruiser session.
But then it all goes wrong again. Thursday the 10th brings a massive 20ft WSW swell with a 13-second period, and the energy reading is off the charts at 11925 – that’s extreme power. But it’s blowing a 12 mph onshore southwesterly, so it’s dangerous and blown out. That’s for the kamikaze crew only.
So to sum it up: the only true standout in this whole 16-day window is Wednesday morning, September 2nd. Get out there if you can. The rest is mostly wind-slammed, though Wednesday the 9th afternoon offers a smaller, cleaner option for a mellow paddle. Don’t hold your breath on the rest.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1028 | 745 | 630 | 365 | 152 | 480 | 1226 | 2987 | 2178 | 1340 | 874 | 572 | 932 | 860 | 991 | 1460 | 1179 | 1796 | 1074 | 838 | 763 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | on |
High Tide | 10:03AM0.62m | 9:17PM0.58m | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | 1:58PM0.74m | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:50PM0.40m | 4:07AM0.22m | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | 7:45AM0.18m | 8:13PM0.16m | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | ||||||||
6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | |
— | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:53 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 |
Temp °C | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 12 |
Feels °C | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 |
1028 | 745 | 630 | 365 | 152 | 458 | 1226 | 2987 | 2178 | 1340 | 874 | 572 | 932 | 860 | 991 | 1460 | 1179 | 1796 | 1074 | 838 | 763 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SSW 5 | S 5 | SW 12 | WSW 19 | WSW 18 | SE 10 | — | — | W 24 | SW 22 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | WSW 20 | SW 20 | — | — | N 5 | NNW 5 |
— | — | 40 | 12 | 151 | 480 | 1044 | 4 | — | — | 11 | 18 | 98 | 98 | 84 | 155 | 306 | — | — | 1 | 9 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 22 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | WSW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | 25 | 21 | 118 | 12 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | 98 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 6 | SSW 6 | — | — | W 3 | WSW 5 | NW 3 | — | SSW 5 | SW 5 | SW 5 | SW 6 | — | W 12 | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 10 |
47 | 60 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 4 | — | 14 | 32 | 35 | 112 | — | 137 | — | — | — | 3 | 53 | 41 | 528 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 45 | 45 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 105 | 54 | 52 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 429 | 141 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











