Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey there, Rusty here. Let’s get through this Cape Paterson forecast. It’s a mixed bag, and I mean *mixed*. There’s a lot of wind and swell, but not a lot of that sweet spot.

Overall, we’re looking at a pattern of strong westerly winds and big, often oversized, groundswells. The water is sitting at about 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year – nothing to write home about. The first week is mostly a right-off for decent paddle surfing. There are two clear windows that look promising, but they’re further out, so take ’em with a grain of salt.

Starting off, Thursday the 6th is tiny – little 2ft swells with a side chop. No go. Friday the 7th bumps up to around 5ft (WSW), but the wind is all over it, keeping it messy. Saturday the 8th is a bit cleaner with a cross-off breeze, but the surf is still only marginal.

Monday the 10th is when the ocean wakes up, but not in a good way. We’re talking a 16ft swell (WSW) with combined energy at 3348. That’s a lot of power, but the wind is screaming onshore at 28 mph. It’s a blown-out mess. The afternoon is a 13ft swell with crazy energy. If you’re a kitesurfer, you’re gonna have a blast. For the rest of us? Forget it.

The week of the 12th to the 15th is just as wild. Huge swells, 13ft up to a massive 21ft on Thursday the 13th, with near gale winds. That’s a survival session, not a fun one.

Now, the good stuff. Skip ahead to Sunday, August 16th. The morning offers a 6ft SW groundswell (15-second period) with light offshore wind from the east. The wave report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the first real standout. The combined energy is 1526 – solid power. This is your best bet for a clean, makeable wave.

Then things look even better heading into the final week. Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th are calling for very good conditions. On the 19th, we’ve got 6ft to 6ft WSW swells (15-16 second periods) and gentle offshore breezes. Clean, lined up, and fun. Thursday the 20th morning has a 6ft swell (16 seconds, 2120 combined energy) with light offshore wind. The afternoon offers a smaller 5ft swell but with a crazy 21-second period – that’s super long-period groundswell, best saved for a point or reef break.

So your play is clear: hold out for Sunday the 16th, then nail Wednesday and Thursday the 19th and 20th. The rest is windblown, oversized, or just plain not happening.

Rusty.

Read more