Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 10s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 8,594 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 10s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let's get into it. This is Rusty, and I'm looking at what's coming up for Cape Paterson.
Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – the next week and a half is looking pretty grim. There's a lot of wind, a lot of chop, and not much in the way of a clean wave. We're looking at a solid block of poor conditions from the 24th of July right through to the 1st of August. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and while the swell is often there, it's just messy. You'll see a few days where the swell is powerful, like the 28th with a 10ft cross-shore mess (combined energy of 2683), or the 29th with an 12ft SW groundswell (combined energy of 5655), but it's going to be a washing machine out there. Those days are really for the experts only, and even then, it's not going to be pretty.
There's a bit of a shift on the 2nd of August. The Sunday morning brings a 7ft SW groundswell with a very long 19 second period (combined energy of 3437). The wind is cross-shore from the NW, so it's still messy, but there's a lot of energy in the water. It's a bit of a tease.
Now, hold onto your boards, because the week of the 3rd is where it gets interesting. Monday, the 3rd of August, is our first real standout. The morning has a clean 5ft SW groundswell with a light cross-offshore breeze from the north, and then the afternoon goes glassy – zero wind, with a 5ft SW groundswell. That's a window of perfection. The water temp is about 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year.
Then, the 7th of August is the big one for the brave. Friday morning sees an 8ft WSW groundswell (combined energy of 4271) with clean cross-offshore winds from the NNE. By Friday afternoon, it pumps up to a 10ft WSW groundswell (combined energy of 5927) with a clean cross-offshore wind from the north. That is serious, serious size. This is expert-only territory, and with the long period (17 seconds), it's going to be a heaving, powerful wave. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, so that long period means the waves will be holding up well, but the currents will be strong. The crowds are sometimes a problem here, and on a day like that, you can bet the locals will be out.
So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The second week has a couple of golden windows. The standout is Monday the 3rd of August for the glassy, clean conditions. And for the big-wave hunters, the 7th of August is the one to circle on your calendar, but only if you know what you're doing.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Fri afternoon). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Fri night, light winds from the NW by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the W on Tue afternoon, light winds from the WSW by Thu morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | W 12 | WSW 8 | WSW 11 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1776 | 2049 | 2405 | 1946 | 1304 | 814 | 573 | 450 | 382 | 403 | 536 | 2297 | 1186 | 4140 | 5655 | 2913 | 1864 | 1037 | 772 | 609 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 6:33PM0.69m | 7:50AM0.65m | 7:12PM0.66m | 8:44AM0.64m | 7:56PM0.63m | 9:44AM0.63m | 8:50PM0.61m | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:13AM0.13m | 1:29PM0.35m | 1:57AM0.16m | 2:21PM0.38m | 2:48AM0.17m | 3:23PM0.40m | 3:44AM0.18m | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | ||||||||
 |  | | |  | |  |  |  | | | |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — |
 | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — |
mm | — | 4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Feels °C | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 12 | SW 12 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | SW 10 | WSW 11 | WSW 11 | WSW 12 | SW 12 | — | — | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 |
| kJ | 1776 | 485 | 175 | 209 | 226 | 814 | 573 | 450 | 382 | 403 | 536 | 386 | — | — | 5655 | 2913 | 1864 | 1037 | 772 | 609 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | SW 12 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 26 | SW 24 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 172 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25 | 22 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 24 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 54 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 12 | WSW 12 | WSW 11 | — | — | NW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | NW 6 | W 12 | WSW 8 | WSW 11 | — | — | — | — | — | SW 5 |
| kJ | 899 | 2049 | 2405 | 1946 | 1304 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 32 | 157 | 2297 | 1186 | 4140 | — | — | — | — | — | 24 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 141 | 117 | 117 | 54 | 114 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 119 | 227 | 141 | 227 | 244 | 244 | 45 | 45 | 5 | 35 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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