Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 3 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 14s period, WSW swell with 3,292 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 31 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 14s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 1.0m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Mon 31st Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s the picture for Cape Paterson (beach and reef) over the next couple of weeks.
Look, I’ll be straight with you – this is a pretty tough run for the next week or so. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only good news. We’ve got a long gap with no real surf on offer right through until the end of August and into the first week of September. The wind is strong, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the swell is often messy. There’s a flicker of hope on Friday 28 August morning with a 6ft WSW swell, period 13 seconds, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore and the energy’s moderate (2419), so it’s only marginal and really only for the experienced. The Friday afternoon sees a 8ft WSW swell with a very long period of 17 seconds and light offshore wind, which is a nice combo, but the combined energy is strong (3119) and the conditions are still described as marginal due to tide or quality. For a beach and reef setup, that long period groundswell can make it break a bit too straight, so keep that in mind.
The rest of that week and into the start of September is more of the same – poor conditions, strong winds, and lumpy, choppy seas. Nothing worth paddling out for. The energy is moderate to strong, but the wind just ruins it.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. We’ve got a standout on the horizon, but it’s a long way off. On Sunday 6 September afternoon, a massive 15ft WSW swell, period 14 seconds, with light onshore wind and a combined energy of 8015 – that’s very strong. However, the model says it’s too big for this break, so it’s a no-go. But then Monday 7 September is the real deal. Monday morning sees a 13ft WSW swell, period 15 seconds, with a moderate offshore wind from the east, and the energy is huge (12564). The conditions are described as marginal, but for experts, this is exceptional. By Monday afternoon, the wind drops to a light cross-offshore from the ENE, the swell holds at 13ft, period 14 seconds, and the energy is still massive (10313). This is the best on offer – big, powerful, clean waves for those who know what they’re doing. The crowd factor isn’t noted, but at a spot like this, it could be worth it.
After that, the wind turns nasty again, with strong onshores and blown-out conditions through the second week. There’s a few more days with big swell (10-13ft) but the wind is just too strong for any quality. The second week is a write-off.
So, in short: a long, frustrating start, but if you’re an expert, mark Monday 7 September in your calendar. That’s your window.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Thu afternoon, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds increasing (calm on Mon afternoon, near gales from the NW by Tue afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | SW 22 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | WSW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
365 | 151 | 480 | 1188 | 3119 | 2178 | 1447 | 934 | 623 | 1018 | 940 | 1280 | 1500 | 1307 | 2091 | 1164 | 903 | 573 | 2598 | 1554 | 867 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 11:07AM0.63m | 10:35PM0.58m | 12:01PM0.66m | 11:47PM0.60m | 12:45PM0.69m | 00:47AM0.64m | 1:23PM0.71m | 1:38AM0.69m | 1:58PM0.74m | 2:23AM0.73m | 2:32PM0.76m | 3:06AM0.76m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:49AM0.79m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:06PM0.38m | 5:11AM0.21m | 6:07PM0.33m | 6:09AM0.20m | 6:55PM0.28m | 6:59AM0.19m | 7:36PM0.22m | 7:45AM0.18m | 8:13PM0.16m | 8:27AM0.18m | 8:49PM0.10m | 9:07AM0.18m | 9:26PM0.06m | ||||||||
6:48 | — | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | |
— | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 10 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 17 | SW 16 | SW 15 | WSW 10 | — | SW 14 | SW 13 |
365 | 121 | 458 | 1188 | 3119 | 2178 | 1447 | 934 | 623 | 1018 | 940 | 1280 | 1500 | 1307 | 2091 | 1164 | 903 | 573 | — | 1554 | 867 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 5 | SW 12 | WSW 19 | WSW 18 | ESE 10 | — | — | W 24 | SW 22 | SW 20 | SW 20 | — | SW 21 | SW 19 | — | — | — | SW 14 | — | — | — |
12 | 151 | 480 | 1044 | 9 | — | — | 11 | 18 | 98 | 98 | — | 153 | 450 | — | — | — | 536 | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 15 | SW 22 | SE 11 | ESE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
21 | 118 | 5 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | W 3 | — | WSW 7 | — | SSW 5 | SW 5 | SW 5 | WSW 6 | SW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | WSW 15 | WSW 7 | W 9 |
— | 1 | — | 187 | — | 28 | 43 | 53 | 112 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | 62 | 79 | 24 | 2598 | 181 | 694 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 23 | 126 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 443 | 289 | 114 | 54 | 54 | 52 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











