Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I gotta tell ya, it’s a real mixed bag on the horizon. We’ve got some solid swell coming through but the wind is gonna be the main character for a lot of it. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is just a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s not a shock to the system.

The first real chance to get a wave is this Saturday morning, the 1st of August. Cape Paterson (Victoria) is the only spot on the cards. The swell is a clean 3ft from the southwest, and with a light NNE breeze making it cross-off, it’s looking pretty tidy. The period is a solid 12 seconds, so there’s some proper energy in the water (546). It’s not a massive day, but it’s clean and lined up. The crowds can pop up here sometimes, so keep an eye out.

That afternoon, things get even better. The wind drops to glassy with a WSW breeze, and the swell pushes up to 5ft, still from the southwest. The period jumps to a very long 18 seconds, and the energy is pumping (1471). This is a standout window for the whole forecast—clean, solid, and glassy. If you can get out there, do it.

Sunday the 2nd keeps the momentum going. The morning sees a 5ft southwest swell (16-second period, 1390 energy) with a cross-off northerly breeze. It’s a good, clean option. The afternoon gets a bit bumpier with a stronger NNW wind, but the swell holds at 5ft.

Then we hit a wall. From Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th, the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, and the surf gets messy. Strong winds and rain make it a write-off for paddling. There’s a big 10ft swell on Monday afternoon, but with a short, choppy 7-second period and strong cross-shore wind, it’s a washing machine. Not ideal for paddle surfing.

Friday the 7th is a return to form. The morning brings a clean 4ft swell from the west-southwest with a very long 16-second period and a light northerly cross-off breeze. The energy is strong (1286), and it’s clean. The standout for the second week is this morning session. The afternoon gets a bit of cross-on wind, but it’s still rideable.

Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are decent but not epic. Clean cross-off winds, but the swell drops to 4-5ft. The energy is moderate (957 then 541). It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

The following week is a letdown. From Monday the 10th onwards, the wind swings onshore and the swell gets big, messy, and dangerous. On Tuesday the 11th, we see an 12ft swell with an 8-second period and strong onshore wind—that’s for experts only, and even then, it’s a battle. The energy is massive (4588) but the quality is poor. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through the middle of the week.

The last chance in the window is Sunday the 16th. The morning sees a 4ft southwest swell with a 15-second period and a light east-southeast cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate (701) and it’s clean. It’s a small, mellow way to finish the run.

Overall, the best surf is on Saturday the 1st afternoon with that glassy, 5ft groundswell, and the Friday the 7th morning session with the clean, long-period swell. After that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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