Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the Cape Paterson region over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a bit of a rough stretch, and we’ve got a long wait for anything that’s really worth getting wet for.

The first week is a write-off, I’m afraid. We’re looking at a run of poor conditions straight out of the gate. Monday the 7th kicks off with a solid 8ft SW swell, but it’s being hammered by a 30 km/h onshore wind and a short, weak period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (752), but it’s just a messy, blown-out affair. That theme continues right through the middle of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday see the swell jump up, with wave heights hitting 12ft on Wednesday the 9th and a massive surge of energy (11524), but it’s all onshore, with fresh to strong breezes ruining any chance of a clean face. This is expert-only, heavy water, and the wind is just going to make it a washing machine. Honestly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing with that much wind and swell.

We don’t see a shift until the following weekend. The first real glimmer of hope appears on Saturday the 12th. The morning shows a clean, clear sky with a light breeze swinging offshore. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft from the SW, but the period stretches out to a very long 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is still a solid 1761. The wind is a light cross-shore, so there’ll be a few ripples, but it’s the cleanest we’ve seen all week. The break is a beach and reef setup, and with a long period like that, it’s going to be better for the reef sections to keep the waves from just closing out. It’s marked as “fairly consistent,” but the spot is sheltered and takes a SW swell, so it needs a bit of direction. The water temp is a bit above average for this time of year at 57°, so not bad for a winter surf.

Sunday the 13th is another one to keep an eye on. The morning session shows a 5ft SW swell with a very long period of 15 seconds. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze from the NNW, which is a major positive. The report says “clean” – that’s what we want to hear. The energy is a bit lower (901), but with clean conditions and a good swell direction, it could offer some fun, lined-up waves. This could be the pick of the lot for the whole outlook. Just be aware, crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea.

After that, we get a bit of a lull. The second week is a mixed bag of onshore winds and lumpy seas. There’s still some swell around, but the quality drops off. Friday the 18th morning offers a 5ft SW swell with a 15-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore. It’s only a marginal call, but it’s the best of a bad bunch in the second week. The energy is moderate (1239), so there’s enough push, but it won’t be as clean as the weekend before.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a complete loss. Let the big swell with the strong wind blow through. Your best bet is the Saturday the 12th, with the clean morning conditions and the long-period groundswell. Sunday the 13th morning is a very close second, with that offshore wind making things clean. The rest of the run is a waiting game, hoping the forecasts change for the better. It’s not a bad area, it just tends to get these blank runs when the wind locks in.

Rusty.

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