Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 27 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 10,651 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 11s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Mon 3rd Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, Rusty here.
Look, I'm gonna level with you. The next 16 days at Cape Paterson are a frustrating mix of huge, dangerous swell and absolutely howling wind. It's a beach and reef setup, so it's not going to handle a lot of what's coming. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year.
The first chunk, from the 28th of July through to the 30th, is a write-off. We're talking a near-gale from the WSW on the 29th, with a massive 15ft swell pumping through. The combined energy is off the charts at 10651, but it's just too dangerous and messy. Forget about it.
Thursday the 31st of July offers a tiny glimmer with a 5ft SW swell, but the wind is onshore and it's still a "marginal" call. It'll be lumpy.
The first real chance for a surf comes on Saturday the 1st of August. The morning is looking clean with a light offshore wind from the North, and a small 3ft SW groundswell with a long 18-second period. The energy is moderate (620), but paired with the clean conditions, it'll be worth a paddle. Just be aware that with that long period, the waves might be a bit straight at this beach break, so look for a bank. The afternoon gets a bit bumpy with a cross-shore wind.
Then we get a bit of a gap. The 2nd and 3rd of August are back to strong, messy winds and big, blown-out swell. The 4th of August Tuesday morning brings a return to clean conditions with a smaller 5ft SW swell. The 5th of August Wednesday morning is the real standout. It's glassy, with a light offshore breeze from the NE, and a clean 3ft SW groundswell. For a few hours, it'll be as good as it gets.
We get a few more clean, small mornings on the 6th and 7th, but the swell is tiny. The 8th of August Saturday is a write-off with strong winds.
The closest thing to a proper standout in the second week is lookin' like the 11th of August. Tuesday afternoon is showing a solid 8ft W swell, with clean conditions and a light offshore breeze. The energy is strong (2322), and if the tide plays ball, it'll be an excellent session for the experienced crew. The 12th of August Wednesday morning is showing a massive 13ft swell, but it's too big for this spot. The afternoon is a 16ft beast, the finder says it's too big. So keep your eyes peeled for that Tuesday session.
Honestly, it's a tough run. The consistent theme is that when there's swell, there's wind, and when there's no wind, the swell is small. The 4th and 5th of August mornings are your best bet for a fun, clean wave.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the W on Tue night, light winds from the WSW by Thu night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sun morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, strong winds from the NNW by Sat night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | W 11 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 679 | 660 | 2626 | 10651 | 8519 | 3996 | 1632 | 734 | 772 | 514 | 411 | 361 | 370 | 1766 | 2611 | 1714 | 2555 | 1772 | 3424 | 2261 | 1077 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:47AM0.64m | 9:52PM0.59m | 11:47AM0.66m | 11:00PM0.59m | 12:38PM0.68m | 00:05AM0.60m | 1:22PM0.71m | 1:02AM0.62m | 2:00PM0.73m | 1:53AM0.64m | 2:34PM0.75m | 2:40AM0.67m | 3:06PM0.77m | 3:24AM0.70m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:33PM0.40m | 4:43AM0.18m | 5:41PM0.39m | 5:41AM0.17m | 6:40PM0.35m | 6:33AM0.16m | 7:29PM0.31m | 7:21AM0.16m | 8:11PM0.27m | 8:04AM0.16m | 8:48PM0.22m | 8:45AM0.16m | 9:23PM0.18m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  |  | | | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — |
 | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — |
mm | — | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 13 | WSW 12 | SW 15 | — | — | — | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 13 |
| kJ | 679 | 660 | 465 | — | — | — | 1632 | 734 | 772 | 514 | 411 | 361 | 250 | 1766 | 2611 | 1714 | 2555 | 1772 | 3424 | 2261 | 1077 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SW 24 | SW 21 | SW 20 | SW 20 | SW 18 | — | — | SE 12 | N 7 | WSW 18 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 499 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 18 | 62 | 97 | 370 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 503 | — | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 21 | SW 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 45 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 6 | NW 6 | W 11 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | — | WSW 6 | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | — | NW 4 | NW 5 | NW 5 | SSW 5 | SSW 7 | SE 5 | SE 4 |
| kJ | 228 | 202 | 2626 | 10651 | 8519 | 3996 | — | 139 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 29 | 99 | 51 | 28 | 212 | 38 | 24 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 233 | 466 | 364 | 447 | 346 | 126 | 117 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 117 | 426 | 117 | 45 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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