Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 31 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 18s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 3 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 14s period, WSW swell with 2,293 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 11s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 20s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 13s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 03) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Fri 31st Jul)3.5ft (1.1m) 11s
Best Surf 4PM (Sat 1st Aug)5ft (1.6m) 18s
Most Powerful10PM (Mon 3rd Aug)8ft (2.5m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got a look at what’s coming up for Cape Paterson. This is a pretty sheltered, advanced-level spot that’s mostly a reef and beach mix, and it doesn’t fire all the time. The water’s sitting at 57° – that’s about 1.8° warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s a touch on the mild side.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the good news is there’s surf on offer right from the get-go. Friday the 31st is a bit of a write-off – only 4.3ft of SW swell with a 12-second period, but the wind’s cross and it’s messy. The combined energy sits at 491, which is weak, so it’s not worth paddling out for. Saturday the 1st of August looks much better. The morning is clean with a 3.3ft SW swell, light N wind giving us cross-off conditions, and a combined energy of 546 – still moderate but clean. Then Saturday afternoon is the standout for the first week: the wind goes glassy, the swell jumps to 5.2ft from the SW with a very long 18-second period, and the energy pumps up to 1471. That’s a proper groundswell – long gaps between sets, but when they come, they’ll have shape. This is your best bet for the first week, especially for the more experienced crew. The reef setup should handle that long period nicely.

Sunday the 2nd is still solid with 5.2ft of SW swell and 16-second period, but the wind gets up to 16 mph from the NW in the afternoon, and it’s listed as “marginal.” The energy is still strong at 1245, but the wind’s going to spoil it. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are a no-go – onshore winds and rain, with Tuesday seeing 6.9ft of lumpy WSW swell. That’s too big for beginners and messy for experts. Wednesday the 5th drops right off to 2.0ft, and the rest of the week is a mix of small swell and cross-onshore chop. Not worth it.

Then we get a solid second pulse. Friday the 7th of August morning is a ripper: 4.6ft of WSW swell, 16-second period, light N wind, and a combined energy of 1528 – that’s proper. The morning is clean and cross-off. Saturday the 8th is average, but Sunday the 9th of August morning is the big standout for the whole outlook. You’ve got 7.2ft of WSW swell with a 13-second period, a light NE offshore wind, and the energy is 1668 – strong. That’s a clean, offshore day at Cape Paterson, and it’s pushing into expert territory at that size. The crowd here can turn up sometimes, so get in early. That Sunday morning is the best on offer.

After that, things get wild. Monday the 10th of August morning sees a 13.1ft WSW swell with an 18-second period and a massive 9177 combined energy – that’s very strong, but it’s also got a 28 mph cross-off wind. That’s more likely a kite session than a paddle session for most. The rest of the second week is a mix of big swell with strong onshore or cross winds, so it’s a real mixed bag. The 9th of August is your clear winner. Stay safe out there.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 9°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Tue afternoon, min 7°C on Mon morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Tue morning, light winds from the WSW by Wed night).

Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
1
1
2
3
3
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
SW
12
1.3
SW
12
1.1
SW
11
1
SW
12
1.6
SW
18
1.9
SW
17
1.6
SW
16
1.6
SW
16
1.5
WSW
15
1.4
SW
15
1.3
WSW
16
2.4
WSW
13
2.1
WSW
11
2.1
WSW
12
1.8
SW
11
0.6
SW
20
1
WSW
14
1
SW
13
0.7
SW
16
1.1
SW
15
1.2
SW
18
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
455
433
283
292
1465
1915
1384
1224
987
784
801
1965
1126
1215
770
309
413
316
258
537
947
Wind (km/h)
15
NW
10
WNW
10
NNE
10
N
5
W
15
NNE
20
N
25
NW
15
NNE
35
NNW
30
NNW
25
WSW
35
WSW
35
SW
20
WSW
20
WSW
25
WSW
20
WSW
10
WNW
15
W
10
NW
Wind State
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
on
cross
cross-on
cross
High Tide
1:22PM0.71m
1:02AM0.62m
2:00PM0.73m
1:53AM0.64m
2:34PM0.75m
2:40AM0.67m
3:06PM0.77m
3:24AM0.70m
3:38PM0.77m
4:06AM0.72m
4:09PM0.77m
4:50AM0.74m
4:43PM0.77m
Low Tide
7:29PM0.31m
7:21AM0.16m
8:11PM0.27m
8:04AM0.16m
8:48PM0.22m
8:45AM0.16m
9:23PM0.18m
9:24AM0.17m
9:57PM0.13m
10:03AM0.19m
10:32PM0.10m
10:43AM0.21m
11:10PM0.07m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
light rain
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:20
7:20
7:18
7:18
7:16
7:16
7:15
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:27
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
5:31
 mm
1
5
7
2
2
3
Temp °C
10
11
11
11
13
12
14
15
13
9
10
12
12
13
12
13
13
12
11
12
12
Feels °C
7
10
10
8
11
8
8
9
8
1
4
5
4
6
7
9
8
8
8
9
11
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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