
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 16s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 10,072 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 6s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 10AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Mon 13th Jul) | 15ft (4.5m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a mixed bag for Cape Paterson. We’ve got a whole lot of solid swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a real pain in the arse for most of it. This is a sheltered spot that needs the right conditions, and we’re not getting them for a while.
The combined energy is absolutely pumping, hitting massive four and five-digit figures like 5078, and even up to 12876, which tells you there’s a huge amount of power in the water. But with that power comes a strong cross-onshore wind from the WNW at 25 mph to start, and it just stays messy. Through Sunday 12th and Monday 13th July, we’re looking at strong cross-shore winds and a big, bumpy 13 ft swell from the WSW. The period is up around 12 to 16 seconds, so it’s a powerful groundswell, but it’s going to be a washing machine out there. This is really more of a kite surfing setup than a clean paddle session.
The water temperature is sitting at 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, with just a 0.8° anomaly – nothing unusual there.
We finally get a window of opportunity on Friday 17th July. The morning offers a 7 ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNW. That’s clean. The combined energy is still strong at 2008, but the conditions are right. This is the standout for experienced surfers. Then Friday afternoon goes glassy with a 6 ft swell – that’s beautiful. Saturday 18th July keeps it clean with a lighter 5 ft to 5 ft swell and glassy conditions in the afternoon. Those are the best couple of days on offer.
After that, the swell drops off through Sunday and Monday, with smaller 4 ft to 4 ft surf. The wind stays clean, but the energy drops to moderate levels (473 to 766). Then Tuesday 21st July sees a bump in size back to 7 ft, but the wind swings cross-shore and makes it lumpy again.
Looking further out, there’s another promising window on Saturday 25th July. The morning shows a 7 ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period, a light offshore breeze, and excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The combined energy is strong at 2573. That’s a long-range standout, so keep an eye on it, but it’s a bit less certain. The week before that from the 22nd to the 24th is mostly smaller, cleaner surf, but nothing to write home about.
The last couple of days of the forecast, around the 27th, show a 10 ft SW swell coming in with a short, choppy 8-second period and strong winds – that’s no good for anyone.
So, the short story: It’s a rough start, but Friday 17th July and Saturday 18th are your best bets for a proper surf. The 25th of July looks promising too, but it’s a week and a half away, so don’t book the day off just yet.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon afternoon, light winds from the WNW by Wed morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 9°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sun 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
5078 | 5091 | 7844 | 7810 | 8333 | 5965 | 5663 | 4121 | 2390 | 1895 | 1449 | 1387 | 1466 | 1466 | 2008 | 1822 | 1340 | 1014 | 745 | 520 | 402 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:11PM0.71m | 9:57AM0.74m | 9:15PM0.70m | 11:05AM0.75m | 10:26PM0.70m | 12:08PM0.78m | 11:39PM0.71m | 1:05PM0.80m | 00:49AM0.73m | 1:56PM0.82m | 1:53AM0.74m | 2:43PM0.83m | 2:53AM0.75m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:01AM0.04m | 3:43PM0.35m | 4:06AM0.03m | 4:55PM0.34m | 5:13AM0.02m | 6:03PM0.31m | 6:17AM0.02m | 7:06PM0.26m | 7:17AM0.03m | 8:03PM0.21m | 8:12AM0.05m | 8:55PM0.15m | 9:03AM0.08m | ||||||||
— | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:33 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:31 | — | — | 7:30 | |
5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | 5:16 | |
mm | 6 | 3 | — | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | WSW 15 | WSW 16 | — | — | — | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 14 | WSW 14 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 | WSW 13 |
— | — | 5032 | 7810 | — | — | — | 4121 | 2390 | 1895 | 1449 | 1387 | 1466 | 1466 | 2008 | 1822 | 1340 | 1014 | 745 | 520 | 402 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | W 23 | SW 21 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 71 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 8 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 12 | WSW 13 | WSW 15 | NW 6 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | WSW 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 2 |
5078 | 5091 | 7844 | 142 | 8333 | 5965 | 5663 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 665 | 141 | 227 | 814 | 113 | 114 | 52 | 105 | 23 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











