Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 04 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.9° C
1.1° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 4 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 6,032 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 7 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 15s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 07) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 18s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 11) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Fri 7th Aug)5ft (1.5m) 15s
Best Surf 7PM (Fri 7th Aug)5ft (1.5m) 15s
Most Powerful 7PM (Mon 10th Aug)11ft (3.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s ahead for Cape Paterson.

Mate, the next couple weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, and honestly, there’s a big gap of poor conditions at the start. Tuesday the 4th kicks off with rain and a strong 25 km/h onshore wind from the WSW. There’s a 2.3m swell with an 11-second period, and the wave energy is solid at 1328, but that wind is just trashing it. Wednesday the 5th is more rain and onshore wind, with the swell dropping to 1.6m in the morning. Water temp is 57°, a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, but the surf is still poor.

Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th are cross-shore winds and small, weak swell. Energy plummets to 294 on Thursday morning – just weak and choppy. Friday afternoon shows a little life with a 1.6m WSW swell and a very long 15-second period, but the wind is light cross-onshore at 5 km/h. It’s marginal, scoring just a 2 out of 10.

Saturday the 8th is your first real chance. Clean conditions with a cross-offshore breeze from the NNE at 20 km/h, and a solid 1.6m groundswell with a 16-second period. Energy is high at 1305. The lines should be clean, but watch the tides – it’s still a bit on the smaller side.

Sunday the 9th stays clean with cross-offshore wind, but the swell drops to 1.3m and energy falls to 603. Clean, but weak. Then we hit a nasty stretch from Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th. Monday sees a huge 3.0m WSW swell in the afternoon with energy of 5446, but it’s blown out by 35 km/h cross-onshore wind. Tuesday the 11th is 2.5m of bumpy onshore mess. Wednesday the 12th is a beast – 5.0m swell with near-gale force NW winds. Only for the brave, and even then, it’s ugly.

Thursday the 13th through Sunday the 16th stays marginal. Swell sizes from 2.0m to 3.5m, but the wind stays cross-shore or cross-onshore, creating lumpy conditions. Long periods of 14 to 18 seconds mean there’s heaps of energy – between 1761 and 6397 – but the wind just won’t give us a break.

Now, here’s the shining light. On Tuesday the 18th, we get a proper glassy morning. Wind drops to 5 km/h from the NE – dead offshore – and the swell is a clean 1.9m from the SW with a 16-second period. Energy is a strong 1892. This is the pick of the entire 16-day window. Clean, glassy, decent size – if you can only paddle out once, make it Tuesday the 18th morning. The break loves a SW swell, and that’s exactly what’s on the menu. It’s an advanced spot, fairly consistent, and it can get crowded sometimes, so get there early.

After that, Wednesday the 19th slips back into clean but smaller surf with 1.4m swell and a fresh cross-offshore wind – not bad, but not the standout.

So, a long quiet spell early on, a couple of clean but smaller days around the 8th and 9th, then a big, windy, messy middle. The real keeper is that glassy Tuesday the 18th morning. Don’t miss it.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Thu afternoon, light winds from the W by Fri morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sun night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, near gales from the W by Sun night).

Tue
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
Friday
7
Saturday
8
Sunday
9
Monday
10
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.3
WSW
11
1.9
SW
10
1.6
SW
10
0.5
SW
19
0.9
SW
13
0.7
SW
12
0.6
SW
16
1.1
SW
18
1.5
WSW
15
1.6
WSW
15
1.4
WSW
14
1.6
WSW
16
1.5
WSW
16
1.5
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
14
1.1
WSW
14
1.3
WSW
15
1.8
SW
19
3
WSW
17
3
WSW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
1328
692
459
175
249
149
198
727
1069
1117
763
1305
1098
961
603
453
805
2300
5446
4617
Wind (km/h)
25
WSW
20
WSW
20
SW
15
WSW
20
W
25
NW
35
NW
30
W
20
W
5
W
15
NNE
20
NNE
20
NNW
20
NNE
30
N
35
NNE
40
NW
40
WNW
35
W
40
NNW
Wind State
on
cross-on
on
on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
4:06AM0.72m
4:09PM0.77m
4:50AM0.74m
4:43PM0.77m
5:35AM0.75m
5:19PM0.76m
6:25AM0.74m
6:01PM0.75m
7:21AM0.73m
6:49PM0.73m
8:23AM0.72m
7:46PM0.71m
Low Tide
9:57PM0.13m
10:03AM0.19m
10:32PM0.10m
10:43AM0.21m
11:10PM0.07m
11:26AM0.24m
11:52PM0.05m
12:12PM0.28m
00:40AM0.04m
1:04PM0.31m
1:35AM0.04m
2:05PM0.34m
2:38AM0.06m
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:16
7:15
7:13
7:13
7:11
7:09
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:30
5:30
5:31
5:32
5:32
5:34
5:35
 mm
3
5
3
2
1
1
1
3
6
2
1
2
Temp °C
12
12
12
12
12
10
12
12
12
12
12
15
16
13
12
14
12
11
11
11
Feels °C
6
7
8
8
7
3
6
6
8
10
9
11
11
8
6
6
5
2
3
2
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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