Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 18 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.4° C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 23 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 13s period, WSW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 22 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 16s period, WSW swell with 3,468 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 18 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.2m and 14s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 2.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Tue 18th Aug)4ft (1.2m) 14s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 23rd Aug)5.5ft (1.7m) 13s
Most Powerful 1AM (Sat 22nd Aug)8ft (2.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – the next couple of weeks at Cape Paterson are looking pretty ordinary for a paddle. This is a sheltered, advanced beach and reef set-up that usually needs a clean window, and we just aren’t getting one for most of the run. The water is sitting at 56°, which is only about a degree and a half warmer than average for this time of year – nothing weird there.

We do have a short window of clean surf to kick things off. Tuesday the 18th morning, a 4ft WSW groundswell (14-second period) with a light NE offshore breeze will have the combined swell energy in the moderate range (789). It’s clean and there’s some push, but don’t expect a classic. The wind swings cross-off in the arvo, still clean enough with 4ft SW swell. That Tuesday morning is your best bet early on – it’s the only real stand-out in the first week.

Wednesday the 19th goes downhill fast. A fresh N to NNW breeze kills the quality, and the swell drops to under 3ft. Then Thursday the 20th we get a short-period 5ft W swell (8 seconds) with cross-shore wind and a lumpy chop – not worth suiting up for. Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd see the swell jump up to 6ft to 8ft from the WSW, but it’s all cross-onshore or onshore wind, and the combined energy rockets up into the strong range (over 3000 on Saturday). That’s expert territory for size, but the wind is just trashing it. Honestly, for paddle surfing, it’s a write-off. If you’re into kite surfing, that Saturday might look interesting with that cross-shore wind and 8ft swell.

We get a short breather Sunday the 23rd with a 7ft WSW swell and lighter cross-shore wind in the morning, but it’s still lumpy and cross-onshore by the arvo. Then Monday the 24th sees clean cross-off wind return with 5ft SW groundswell, but the wind is a moderate 25 km/h, so it’s not perfect.

The second week is rough. Tuesday the 25th has strong onshore wind and big swell – forget it. Wednesday the 26th arvo is the only real bright spot in the whole run: a 4ft SW swell with glassy, light S wind. Combined energy is moderate (455), and the conditions are glassy clean. That’s a sneaky good session if you can get it. Thursday the 27th morning looks promising too – a 7ft WSW swell with a gentle NNE cross-off breeze and moderate energy (1025). That’s a solid, clean swell, but it’s big enough for advanced surfers only. The arvo turns even better: 7ft WSW with an offshore ENE breeze and strong energy (1466). That Thursday the 27th is the standout of the second week.

After that, Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th are messy or blown out. Sunday the 30th through to Wednesday the 2nd of September is all poor quality with strong wind and onshore conditions, the swell stays small to moderate, and the energy drops right off. There’s nothing to recommend in those final days.

So, if you’re keen, aim for Tuesday morning the 18th or the glassy Wednesday arvo the 26th. For the biggest and cleanest swell, Thursday the 27th is your best shot, but only if you’re advanced. Otherwise, it’s a long wait for not much.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, fresh winds from the NNW by Wed afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Fri morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri night, min 10°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon).

Tuesday
18
Wednesday
19
Thursday
20
Friday
21
Saturday
22
Sunday
23
Monday
24
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
1
2
1
2
0
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.3
WSW
14
1.2
SW
14
0.8
WSW
13
0.8
WSW
14
0.7
SW
15
0.8
WSW
14
1.4
W
8
0.8
WSW
13
1.6
WSW
12
1.8
WSW
16
2.1
WSW
14
2.5
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
16
2.5
WSW
16
2.5
SW
15
2.2
WSW
14
2
WSW
14
1.7
SW
16
1.4
SW
14
1.4
SW
14
1.9
WSW
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
701
589
229
257
232
268
258
195
738
1531
1704
3468
3288
3116
2736
1906
1487
1412
834
754
1062
Wind (km/h)
10
NE
10
ESE
15
NE
30
N
30
NNW
30
NW
25
NW
20
WNW
25
WNW
25
WNW
25
WNW
25
WNW
30
NW
25
W
20
W
25
NW
10
W
20
NNW
25
NNW
25
NNW
30
NW
Wind State
off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
3:35PM0.80m
4:16AM0.77m
4:11PM0.78m
4:58AM0.75m
4:46PM0.76m
5:39AM0.72m
5:20PM0.73m
6:20AM0.69m
5:54PM0.69m
7:04AM0.66m
6:31PM0.66m
7:55AM0.63m
7:14PM0.63m
Low Tide
9:57PM0.06m
10:12AM0.19m
10:36PM0.06m
10:50AM0.23m
11:13PM0.08m
11:28AM0.27m
11:51PM0.11m
12:05PM0.30m
00:30AM0.13m
12:46PM0.34m
1:13AM0.16m
1:34PM0.37m
2:03AM0.19m
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
light rain
light rain
rain showers
cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:01
6:58
6:58
6:56
6:54
6:54
6:52
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:42
5:43
5:44
5:45
5:45
5:46
5:46
 mm
2
1
1
5
1
1
4
Temp °C
17
17
17
16
15
14
14
14
12
12
12
13
12
13
13
12
13
12
16
16
14
Feels °C
15
14
13
10
9
9
8
9
7
7
7
8
6
8
9
7
10
9
10
11
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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