Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 22 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
14.0° C
0.9° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 28 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 16s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 16s period, SW swell with 8,074 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 27 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 11s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 11s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Mon 27th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 11s
Best Surf 7PM (Tue 28th Jul)7ft (2.1m) 16s
Most Powerful 4AM (Fri 24th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next week and a half at Cape Paterson is a write-off. The wind is howling from the west and southwest, and every time the swell shows up, the onshore wind just trashes it. We’re looking at a brutal stretch from Wednesday the 22nd all the way through to Sunday the 27th. The swell is there, hitting 7ft to 12ft with moderate to strong combined energy (up to 6082 on the Friday), but the wind is either a strong cross-onshore or a fresh cross-shore, turning it into a lumpy, messy, cross-chop nightmare. The water temperature is 57°, which is about average for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when you’re getting blown off your board.

That blank run finally breaks on Monday morning the 28th. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NNW, and the swell drops to a clean 6ft from the WSW with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate (952). The wave comment says "expect good surf conditions" – about bloody time. It’s not huge, but it’s the first clean window we’ve had. Tuesday morning the 29th looks similar, with a light offshore from the E and a 6ft SW swell at 15 seconds. That long period will give the waves some real shape, but at a beach-and-reef setup like Cape Paterson, it might break a bit straight. Still, it’s clean.

The standout, though, is Saturday morning the 1st of August. The wind is light offshore from the NE, barely 10 km/h, and the swell is 4ft from the SW with a very long 18-second period. The combined energy is strong (1262). The wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions." This is the one to circle – it’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it, but the potential is there for glassy, clean lines. The crowd here is listed as "sometimes," so you might have a few others out, but with that kind of quality, it’s worth it. After that, Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th of August look promising with bigger swell (10ft to 12ft) and cross-offshore winds, but the size is firmly in the ‘experts only’ zone.

So, for the next week, don’t even bother. The second week has a few clean windows, but Saturday the 1st is the real prize. Keep your fingers crossed it holds.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (moderate winds from the WSW on Wed night, strong winds from the WSW by Thu night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Sun morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the W on Sat morning, calm by Mon afternoon).

Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
WSW
12
2
WSW
12
2.3
WSW
11
3
WSW
14
3.5
WSW
14
4
SW
9
3.5
SW
15
2
SW
15
3.5
WSW
10
3
WSW
12
2.5
WSW
12
2.3
WSW
11
1.9
WSW
11
1.8
WSW
11
1.7
WSW
10
1.8
WSW
10
1.9
WSW
11
2.1
WSW
13
1.8
WSW
12
1.5
SW
16
1.9
SW
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
294
1047
1267
3582
4399
2989
6082
1647
2372
2676
1857
1314
846
705
612
729
831
1385
952
1041
1738
Wind (km/h)
35
NW
35
WSW
40
WSW
35
WSW
45
W
45
WSW
35
W
40
WNW
40
W
35
W
35
W
30
WSW
25
NW
20
WNW
20
NW
25
WNW
15
W
10
N
15
NNW
10
WSW
5
NNE
Wind State
cross
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
glassy
High Tide
5:21PM0.76m
6:14AM0.70m
5:57PM0.73m
7:01AM0.68m
6:33PM0.69m
7:50AM0.65m
7:12PM0.66m
8:44AM0.64m
7:56PM0.63m
9:44AM0.63m
8:50PM0.61m
10:47AM0.64m
9:52PM0.59m
Low Tide
11:19AM0.22m
11:51PM0.09m
12:01PM0.27m
00:31AM0.11m
12:43PM0.31m
1:13AM0.13m
1:29PM0.35m
1:57AM0.16m
2:21PM0.38m
2:48AM0.17m
3:23PM0.40m
3:44AM0.18m
4:33PM0.40m
clear
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:28
7:26
7:26
7:26
7:24
7:24
7:24
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:19
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:22
5:23
 mm
3
4
2
2
3
4
2
2
2
Temp °C
13
12
11
10
11
11
11
12
13
13
12
12
11
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
Feels °C
6
5
5
2
1
0
3
3
6
6
5
6
6
9
9
8
10
11
11
11
12
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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