Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a solid window of swell coming through for Cape Paterson, but you’ve gotta pick your moments. The wind is the big story here – it’s going to wreck a lot of the week, but there are some absolute gems if you time it right.

The water is sitting at 58°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a nice little bonus, so you won’t need the thickest rubber.

The first real call is Thursday morning, July 9th. It’s not huge, with a 5ft swell from the SW, but the period is a very long 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The wind is a light NNE cross-off, keeping it clean. The combined energy is moderate (876). For a sheltered reef and beach setup like this, that long period will groom up nicely. It’s a good session, but the swell is a bit small for a standout.

Friday, July 10th is where it gets interesting. The morning is the pick of the first week. A 5ft SW groundswell, with a 15-second period, and a light N cross-off wind. The combined energy jumps up to moderate-strong (1069). It’s clean, it’s got push, and the wind is perfect. This is a standout. The afternoon goes glassy as the wind drops to zero – 5ft and glassy conditions. Get in the water.

Now, the bad news. From Saturday, July 11th right through to Tuesday, July 14th it’s a write-off. The wind cranks up from the north and then swings west, hitting 34 mph on Sunday. The swell gets big – 13ft to 18ft – but it’s all cross-shore and onshore junk. The combined energy on Sunday morning is massive (9721), but the conditions are a no-go for a paddle. If you’ve got a kite, that Sunday might be your thing, but for a surfboard, stay home.

Wednesday, July 15th is a reset. The swell drops to 8ft from the SW with a 15-second period, but the wind is a cross-shore from the SE. It’s marginal, but it’s a lot better than the weekend. The combined energy is still strong (3272), but it’s a bit lumpy. Not the best, but a step back in the right direction.

The second week kicks off with a much better run. Thursday, July 16th morning is clean again with a 5ft SW swell, 14-second period, and a light E cross-off. A nice, easy session.

But the real standout of the entire forecast is Friday, July 17th. The morning has a 5ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period and a light N cross-off. The afternoon goes glassy with a 5ft swell. The combined energy is solid (1090 and 1038). This is the best on offer – clean, long-period groundswell, and no wind. This is a day to call in sick.

Saturday, July 18th keeps the run going. The morning is 6ft from the SW, 15-second period, with a light N cross-off. The energy is strong (1501). It’s a bit bigger, but still clean and very surfable. The afternoon gets a little lumpy with a cross-shore wind.

The energy starts to fade from Sunday, July 19th onward, with smaller swells in the 4ft to 6ft range. The wind stays mostly cross-off from the north, so it stays clean through to Tuesday, July 21st. It’s not pumping, but it’s consistent and rideable.

By Wednesday, July 22nd, the wind shifts back to a strong SSW onshore, and the swell drops to under 3ft. That’s it for the good stuff. The last few days of the forecast are small and messy.

So, to sum it up: Friday, July 10th morning and Friday, July 17th are your standouts. The 17th might be the best of the lot – glassy, long-period groundswell, and just the right size. Don’t miss it.

Rusty.

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