Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Well, strap yourselves in, because we’re staring down the barrel of a long, bleak stretch here. Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a write-off for decent surf, with nothing but junk conditions and poor quality on the cards for ages. We’ve got a big gap of hopeless surf until we finally see a glimmer of something worthwhile right at the tail end of the period.

Let’s break it down. We kick off Wednesday the 16th with a chunky 10ft SW groundswell, but it’s got a stiff 16 mph cross-onshore wind ruining any hope. The combined swell energy is massive at 4176, but what’s the point when it’s ragged. That water temp is sitting at 57°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, but you won’t be feeling it through the chop. Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th offer slight drops in size but the onshore and cross-shore winds just keep the mess going. Saturday the 19th has a fresh cross-wind hitting 22 mph and lumpy 8ft swell – just nasty. Sunday the 20th is a weird one: the wind flips to a strong 28 mph NNW cross-off, cleaning it up, but the swell has dropped to just 5ft with weak energy (700). Not worth the fight.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd see the swell bump back up to 8ft, a very long 15-16 second period SW groundswell, but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s marginal at best. The energy is strong (3483 on Tuesday morning), but the wind just kills it.

Then we hit Wednesday the 23rd of September. This is the one bright spark. Cape Paterson gets a clean, offshore ENE breeze at 6 mph, with a 6ft SW swell pulsing at 15 seconds. The energy is solid (1500), and that offshore wind will make for some really clean, lined-up waves. The crowd factor is something to keep in mind, as it can get busy here, but with the conditions aligning, it’s the best on offer by a long shot. That said, this is a beach and reef setup, and with a long-period groundswell like that, it might break a bit straight in the beachy sections, so look for the reef to get the better shape.

After that, we fade out fast. Thursday the 24th drops to 3ft, and by Friday the 25th we’re down to a tiny 3ft SW swell with glassy conditions in the morning, but it’s just too small to get excited about.

Look ahead to Saturday the 26th of September. The morning brings a 5ft SW groundswell with a whopping 20-second period and a clean cross-off breeze. That’s a proper groundswell, very long, so those long gaps between sets will be pronounced. It’s best suited for the reef or any defined banks, not the straight beach sections. The energy is high (1971), and it could be a promising session for the more experienced crew. After that, the wind stays clean but the swell slips down, and by the start of October we’re looking at a near gale and rain. A grim end to the outlook.

So, to sum it up: the only two dates worth marking in the calendar are Wednesday the 23rd of September and maybe Saturday the 26th of September. The rest of it? Leave the board in the car and go for a walk.

Rusty.

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