Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Cape Paterson over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be honest from the get-go: it’s a rough patch. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle, with a whole lot of onshore or cross-shore wind and messy conditions. But there are a few moments where it might clean up enough for a paddle.

The water’s sitting at 57°F right now, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s about it for the good news.

We’ve got solid, powerful swell showing up straight away. Thursday the 3rd is pumping with 12ft to 13ft of WSW swell, but with a strong 25 mph W to WSW cross-onshore blow, it’s just a washing machine out there. Combined swell energy is massive at 4904, but it’s all for nothing with that wind. Not a wave worth paddling for.

That theme of big swell with bad wind carries through the weekend. Friday the 4th has 10ft of WSW groundswell at a long 16 seconds, but it’s cross-shore with a moderate breeze. The waves will have shape, but it’s a bit of a chop fest. Still, it’s the best of a bad lot early on. Saturday the 5th gets ugly with a near gale ripping, and Sunday the 6th is still messy with cross-onshore winds and 8ft of swell.

The first real spark of hope isn’t until Saturday the 12th. We finally get a clean window. The wind swings NNW, going cross-offshore, and we’ve got a solid 5ft to 5ft of long-period SW groundswell (15 seconds). The combined energy is moderate at around 1033 to 1219, but clean conditions make all the difference. This is the standout period of the whole outlook. Cape Paterson is a beach and reef setup, and with that long period, expect good shaped waves, decent gaps between sets, and an easier paddle out. Crowds are possible here, but on a Saturday morning with clean conditions, you might have to share.

After that, Sunday the 13th starts clean again with NNW cross-off winds, but the swell drops a bit to 4ft in the morning. The afternoon picks up to 7ft, but the wind picks up too, a fresh 22 mph, making it a bit lumpy.

The second week is a real mixed bag. The clean cross-off conditions pop up again on Wednesday the 16th morning with 6ft of SW swell, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph, so it won’t be perfect. Then the 17th and 18th are a write-off with a massive 18ft swell on Thursday the 17th, but 28 mph cross-shore winds make it unsurfable and more of a kiting setup than a paddle zone at a beach and reef spot like this.

Honestly, there’s no day here that’s a total cracker. The best you’re going to get is Saturday the 12th and maybe the morning of Sunday the 13th. Keep an eye on the forecasts closer to the day, as things can change. For now, if you’re keen, pencil in that second Saturday for a shot at some clean, long-period groundswell.

Rusty.

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