Cape Paterson Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.68° S 145.60° E

Cape Paterson Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 05 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Cape Paterson sea temperature is
13.7°C
1.0° 

Cape Paterson surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Cape Paterson surf forecast from 5 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 10 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 18s period, SW swell with 9,108 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 11 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:

The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 11) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 4.0m 18s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 10) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Fri 11th Sep)7ft (2.1m) 15s
Best Surf 1AM (Sat 12th Sep)7ft (2.2m) 15s
Most Powerful 1AM (Thu 10th Sep)13ft (4.0m) 18s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, classic Cape Paterson. It’s a beach and reef setup that’s sheltered and needs a good SW swell to work, and the optimum is from the SW. Straight up, this is a tough run for the next couple of weeks. The wind is the big problem – it’s almost always onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is often cranking but messy. There’s a lot of energy in the water, but it’s not for paddling. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about a degree and a half warmer than normal for this time of year – not a huge deal, but a bit of a surprise.

We start with Saturday the 5th, and it’s a write-off. Strong cross-onshore wind at 25 mph from the WNW, with an 8ft SW swell at a 15 second period. The energy is huge (4019), but it’s just a messy, dangerous mess. Not for surfers. Sunday the 6th is barely better – onshore winds and an 8ft SW swell, but it's marginal at best. The trend continues all through the week. Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th are poor, with cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. The swell is still solid, but the wind is just killing it.

The first real flicker of hope comes on Saturday the 12th. The morning looks clean with a light breeze from the N at 6 mph, a 7ft SW swell at a nice 16 second period. That’s a solid groundswell. The energy is still strong (2054). This is the best on offer for the whole outlook. It’s a good one for experienced surfers – the swell is over 5ft, so it’s not for learners. The only downer is that the exposure to swell is sheltered, so you need the direction to be perfect. This one is promising, but it’s a one-off.

After that, it’s back to the grind. Sunday the 13th blows out with a 22 mph NW wind. Monday the 14th has a brief clean window with a NNW wind, but the swell is only 4ft and the energy is weak (564). Not worth the paddle. Then we get a big, lumpy, cross-onshore mess from the 14th afternoon through the 15th and 16th. The swell is 10ft+ but the wind is 15-19 mph onshore – this is kite-surfing territory, not a surfboard.

Then, the standout of the second week. Thursday the 17th morning. Glassy. Flat calm. A 10ft SW swell at a 16 second period. The energy is massive (4027). This is a powerful, clean groundswell for experienced surfers only. Over 8ft, it’s expert territory. The long period will make it punchy and the sets will be spaced out, so paddling out is easier, but the wave itself will be heavy. At a beach and reef break, that long period swell can be a bit straight, but the reef might hold it. This is a big call, but if the wind holds, this is the best of the whole run. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it.

The final days from the 18th to the 20th are a write-off again. Strong winds, lumpy, and messy. The 20th has an 12ft WSW swell with a short 8 second period and cross-onshore winds – another one for the kites.

So, bottom line: this is a tough outlook for Cape Paterson. The swell is there, but the wind is almost always wrong. The two best windows are Saturday the 12th morning and Thursday the 17th morning. Mark them down, but be ready to pull the pin if the wind changes.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 9°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Sat night, light winds from the SW by Mon night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue night, min 11°C on Tue afternoon). Mainly fresh winds.

Sat
5
Sunday
6
Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.5
WSW
15
4.5
WSW
10
2.5
SW
12
2.2
SW
14
2.1
WSW
12
1.1
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
12
0.9
WSW
14
1.5
SW
13
1.2
SW
17
1.7
SW
16
3
SW
16
3.5
SW
19
4
SW
18
3.5
SW
18
3
SW
17
2.5
SW
16
2.1
SW
15
2.1
SW
14
2.2
SW
15
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2899
4498
1818
1850
1333
341
222
328
723
874
1449
4959
8125
9108
7045
4925
3455
1967
1752
2179
Wind (km/h)
40
WNW
50
WSW
20
WSW
15
WSW
30
WSW
20
WSW
30
SSW
15
SSW
15
W
25
WSW
40
SSW
30
SW
35
WSW
30
SW
20
WSW
25
WSW
20
WSW
20
WSW
15
WSW
5
NNW
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
High Tide
4:57PM0.77m
6:05AM0.77m
5:41PM0.75m
6:58AM0.73m
6:32PM0.72m
7:59AM0.70m
7:34PM0.69m
9:07AM0.69m
8:50PM0.66m
10:16AM0.68m
10:15PM0.66m
11:20AM0.70m
11:34PM0.68m
Low Tide
11:30PM0.02m
11:54AM0.27m
00:19AM0.04m
12:45PM0.30m
1:15AM0.07m
1:47PM0.32m
2:19AM0.11m
3:00PM0.33m
3:32AM0.15m
4:19PM0.30m
4:46AM0.17m
5:30PM0.25m
thunderstorm
rain showers
clear
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
light rain
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:33
6:31
6:30
6:28
6:26
6:26
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:58
5:59
6:00
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:02
 mm
2
5
1
1
Temp °C
15
13
13
13
13
13
12
10
11
11
12
11
12
12
11
12
12
11
11
10
Feels °C
7
4
9
10
8
8
6
6
5
5
5
3
3
4
6
8
8
7
8
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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