
Surf Forecasts:
Cape Paterson surf forecast from 9 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 15 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period, SW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 14 Aug, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 17s period, SW swell with 5,364 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 15 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 15s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Cape Paterson this week:
The surf forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 15) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Cape Paterson in the next 16 days are 3.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 14) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 12) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 7PM (Sat 15th Aug) | 7ft (2.1m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Fri 14th Aug) | 10ft (3.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Cape Paterson over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Cape Paterson. It’s a bit of a messy start, to be honest. The next few days are going to be a write-off for a proper surf – we’ve got strong cross-shore winds and a lumpy, chopped-up ocean. You’ll see the energy is there, but it’s all over the place. The combined energy is reading 2300 on Monday morning, and it just gets messier from there. We’re looking at a few days of onshore junk before things start to clean up.
The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until Saturday the 15th. The wind finally drops right out, going light and then glassy, but that swell is still a bit raw and the quality is marginal. The period is a solid 15 seconds, so it’s got some push, but it’s not a clean proposition just yet. We’re looking at 7ft of WSW swell, which is a bit of a handful for most, and the banks might be struggling to hold it together.
Sunday the 16th is more of the same story, but the wind swings around to a cross-offshore from the east which will help clean it up a fraction. Still, the size is dropping and the conditions are merely workable, not epic.
The real standout, and the one I’d circle on the calendar, is Tuesday the 18th. Overnight the wind goes light and the ocean just turns to glass. We’ve got a 5ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period, and it’s clean. The combined energy is reading 1031, which is moderate, but with that light offshore wind, it’s going to be the best the bank has looked in a week. The wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions,” and for once, I believe it. The afternoon looks good too, with a glassy 4ft on offer.
Wednesday the 19th is a solid follow-up, with a slightly smaller but still clean 4ft WSW swell and glassy conditions again. It’ll be a fun one, just not as much size as Tuesday.
After that, we hit a bit of a flat patch. Thursday the 20th drops off to under 3ft, and it’s not worth paddling out for. But hold on, because Friday the 21st brings another pulse of WSW swell, pushing back up to 6ft on the morning with a light offshore wind. That’s another promising window – the energy is reading 1301, and the comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” It looks like a proper little run of waves.
The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd keeps the momentum with clean, cross-offshore conditions and consistent 5-5ft SW swell. The 23rd has a nice gentle offshore wind in the morning which will have the waves looking pretty perfect.
The final days of the window are a mixed bag. Monday the 24th has a small clean 4ft in the morning, but the afternoon gets a bit messy. Then Tuesday the 25th throws a curveball – the swell jumps back to 7ft but the period is a very short 8 seconds. That’s just windswell chop, not a proper groundswell, so it’ll be a bit of a mess even if it’s glassy. It’s one for the experts only, if anyone.
So, the pick of the fortnight is easily Tuesday the 18th. That’s the one where everything lines up – size, period, and glassy conditions. The Friday the 21st session is a close second. The rest is just picking through the average days.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 29mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 9°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the E on Sun night, strong winds from the NNW by Tue night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Thu morning, calm by Sat afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 10 | Tuesday 11 | Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SW 19 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
589 | 2300 | 2642 | 4136 | 691 | 1176 | 482 | 3237 | 976 | 1506 | 4709 | 4213 | 3556 | 5018 | 3648 | 2750 | 2120 | 1885 | 1672 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | on | on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:23AM0.72m | 7:46PM0.71m | 9:32AM0.71m | 8:55PM0.69m | 10:42AM0.72m | 10:13PM0.68m | 11:47AM0.74m | 11:33PM0.69m | 12:43PM0.76m | 00:44AM0.72m | 1:33PM0.78m | 1:47AM0.74m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:35AM0.04m | 2:05PM0.34m | 2:38AM0.06m | 3:16PM0.35m | 3:47AM0.07m | 4:34PM0.34m | 4:57AM0.08m | 5:47PM0.29m | 6:04AM0.09m | 6:50PM0.23m | 7:05AM0.10m | 7:44PM0.17m | |||||||
— | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | |
mm | 18 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Feels °C | 8 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 16 | SW 19 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | WSW 14 | WSW 14 | SW 13 | NNW 5 | SW 16 | SW 17 | WSW 16 | — | SW 15 | SW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 16 | SW 15 | SW 15 | SW 15 |
589 | 2300 | 15 | 9 | 691 | 1176 | 388 | 19 | 976 | 1506 | 4019 | — | 3556 | 5018 | 3648 | 2750 | 2120 | 1885 | 1672 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 20 | SE 9 | — | — | SE 10 | SW 14 | SW 17 | NNW 5 | WSW 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
557 | 22 | — | — | 4 | 507 | 482 | 28 | 637 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SE 10 | E 10 | SE 11 | SE 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 2 | NW 4 | WSW 17 | SW 16 | WSW 7 | NW 4 | NW 5 | WSW 16 | WSW 8 | WSW 10 | WSW 16 | WSW 16 | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | — | — |
1 | 35 | 2642 | 4136 | 330 | 40 | 124 | 3237 | 679 | 961 | 4709 | 4213 | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 20 | 105 | 81 | 117 | 113 | 105 | 227 | 117 | 54 | 114 | 114 | 54 | 5 | 5 | 113 | 45 | 5 | 45 | 5 |
Best forecast wave conditions in East Coast of Victoria | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Cape Paterson Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Cape Paterson provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Cape Paterson can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Cape Paterson surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Cape Paterson) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Cape Paterson may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Cape Paterson is 70 km (43 miles) from Cranbourne. If you plan a holiday in East Coast of Victoria, look for hotels and other accommodation in Cranbourne. Cranbourne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











