Campeche Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good, long look at what’s coming up for Campeche over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a real mixed bag. There’s a promising kick to start the weekend, but then we’re looking at a long, drawn-out lull before things might finally turn around again.

The Overall Pattern

We’ve got a pulse of decent sized, but tricky, swell arriving right away for Friday and Saturday, July 3rd and 4th. The energy is there, but the wind is going to be a problem, making it a battle. After that, the surf really drops off for a massive stretch. From Sunday afternoon, July 5th, all the way through to Tuesday, July 14th, it’s mostly small and weak. It’s going to feel like a ghost town out there for over a week. Then, way out on the horizon, Wednesday July 15th shows a sudden spike in size again, but it's a long-range call.

Friday, July 3rd

The swell is definitely up, starting around 6 ft from the SSE on Friday morning and building to 8 ft by the afternoon from the S (moderate wave energy, 656 to 1803). But the wind is a real spoiler. We’ve got a strong, 30 km/h southerly wind in the morning making it lumpy and cross-onshore. That 8 ft afternoon swell is too big for beginners and with that 10 km/h SSW cross-onshore wind, it’s just not going to be clean. Not the day to get excited about.

Saturday, July 4th

Saturday morning sees the swell sticking around at a solid 7 ft from the S, but again, it’s a cross-shore wind. The water temperature is about average for the time of year here. It's surfable, but the conditions look marginal. The afternoon drops to 5 ft from the SSE, but the wind goes gentle cross-onshore, making it fairly choppy. It’s still not the one.

The Standout Window: Sunday, July 5th

Alright, here is the one true standout of the near-term forecast. Sunday morning, July 5th, is the moment. The swell has settled to a clean 5 ft from the SSE with a decent 11-second period. But the real magic is that wind – it’s glassy. The combined wave energy is moderate (450). It’s going to be clean, calm, and the best surf we’ll see for the next week and a half. The afternoon stays just as good with a 4 ft SSE swell and a light, clean NNE cross-offshore wind. This is a small window of quality. Get on it while you can, because after this, it’s going quiet. The crowd factor is mentioned as "often" here, so expect some company for these clean waves.

The Long Lull: Monday, July 6th through Tuesday, July 14th

This is a brutal stretch. From Monday morning onward, the swell numbers just drop through the floor. Most days we’re looking at waves under 3 ft with very poor energy readings (often in the double-digits to low 100s). There are a few moments of clean skies and light offshore winds, but the swell is just not there to make anything rideable. There’s a tiny blip on Wednesday, July 15th, but until then, it’s flat or close to it. This is a normal blank run for the area when the conditions line up wrong.

The Distant Hope: Wednesday, July 15th

Now, for something promising but very far off. On the morning of Wednesday, July 15th, we see a sudden jump back to a 6 ft swell from the S. What’s got my attention is the wind: it’s glassy again. The combined energy is moderate (538). This is a very promising setup, but we’re talking about a forecast over a week and a half away. The period is short at 7 seconds, so it won't have the same punch as a long-period groundswell. Keep an eye on it, but don’t book the day off work just yet.

After that, the swell fades again into the following weekend, with small, clean conditions but nothing to write home about.

The Bottom Line

If you want the best of what’s on offer, your only real window is Sunday, July 5th. That’s your day for clean, glassy lines at chest-to-head-high. The rest of the near-term is either too windy or too small. That Wednesday, July 15th window looks good on paper, but it's a long way off, so don't pin all your hopes on it just yet.

Stay patient, and wait for that glassy moment.

Rusty.

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