Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple weeks.

Right off the bat, truth is, it’s gonna be a long wait. There’s nothing worth paddling out for today, Tuesday 14 July, and clean through the rest of this week. That little 1 ft swell from the south-southwest is just too weak, and the wind is mostly onshore from the south-west, keeping things messy. The combined wave energy sits between 130 and 181 (moderate), but it’s all noise, no wave face. The water is running 70°, which is a full 6° warmer than normal – that’s a very unusual feeling for this time of year, like summer stuck around too long.

We’ve got a gap of about 11 days of poor or marginal conditions from Tuesday 14 July all the way to Friday 24 July. The swell stays tiny, the wind is always cross-on or onshore, and the wave energy bumps up and down but never enough to clean up. You might see some 1 ft to 2 ft lumps on the Saturday and Sunday, but the “poor surf conditions” label tells the story. The only flicker of hope is Monday 20 July morning, when the forecast calls it “marginal” – but still, that’s just a 2 ft south-southwest swell with a cross-on breeze. Not enough to get stoked about.

Now, on Saturday 25 July morning, we finally get a real standout. Bay Street is looking at a glassy start – wind is light from the south-southwest, almost nothing, just a light air. The swell is 2 ft from the southwest, but here’s the kicker: that period is 21 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell, so it’ll have real push and shape, but it’s also a long period, which means it will break a little straight at a beach break. Still, the glassy conditions are a major positive, and the combined energy of all swells is 612 (strong) – that’s surprising for such a small height but the long period packs a punch. The water is still warm, and the wind is almost dead calm. This is the best on offer, and it’s a true window of clean, lined-up waves. The 4 ft swell later that afternoon is bigger but the wind goes onshore, so the morning is the call.

Sunday 26 July morning is also worth a mention – 2 ft from the southwest at 19 seconds, combined energy of 700 (strong), and light onshore wind. It’s a little more blown, but still better than anything we’ve seen in the first 11 days. Monday 27 July morning has similar 2 ft, 18-second swell, and energy at 518 (strong), but again, light onshore.

Overall, the first week and a half is a write-off – just sit and wait. The standout is Saturday 25 July morning. Get in the water early, the glass will be good, and the swell will have some real grunt. After that, Sunday and Monday mornings have grunt but the wind is a bit more messy.

Rusty.

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