Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’.

We’ve got a bit of a flat spell to kick off this 16-day outlook for Bay Street. The first few days aren’t offering much worth paddling out for, but there’s a thread of hope if you’re patient. The water is sitting at 67°F with a 4°F anomaly, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – surprising, but not unwelcome.

Sunday the 5th is a no-go. A tiny 1ft SSW groundswell with a very long 18-second period is pushing in, but the wind is on it from the southwest, and the energy is just not there (251). The forecast says "poor surf conditions" and that’s the truth. Not worth a look.

Monday the 6th morning sees a slight bump to 2ft from the SSW, still with that long 16-second period. The combined energy is picking up a bit (321), but it's a cross-on wind from the south, so it’s messy. The afternoon is just as poor with onshore wind. The whole week follows the same pattern: small swell (2ft to 3ft), mostly onshore or cross-on winds, and the wave comment keeps saying "poor surf conditions." This is a tough stretch for the Bay Street crew.

Tuesday the 8th has the highest energy we’ll see for a while (513), but it’s paired with onshore wind and a rating of marginal at best. That’s a 3ft, 16-second SSW swell, but it’s just not clean. The crowd situation at Bay Street can be "sometimes" busy, but with this quality, I doubt anyone will be out.

The second week, from about July 12th onward, the swell drops back to 1ft to 2ft. The period shortens up a bit, moving from 14 seconds down to 12 seconds later in the week. The energy dips into the 100s and 200s. Still, mostly onshore or cross-on winds. The best we get is a "marginal" call on the morning of July 19th with a 2ft SW swell and a 16-second period, and light cross-on wind. It’s not good, but it’s the closest thing to a window. The combined energy that morning is 204.

Honestly, there’s no standout session here. The surf is small, the wind is wrong, and the quality just isn’t there. For the more experienced crew, the bigger question is whether the setup might be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the persistent onshore flow. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game. It tends not to stay poor for long around here, and forecasts can change, so keep an eye out.

Rusty.

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