Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Well, it's a pretty quiet run ahead for us, to be honest. We've got a drawn-out stretch of tiny, weak waves that'll make you work for a crumb, but there's a glimmer of something better if you're patient.

The next week or so is a real struggle. The only show in town is Bay Street, a beginner-friendly spot that's exposed to the swell. The water temperature is sitting at 70°, which is a notable 5° warmer than usual for this time of year, so that's a nice surprise. But the surf itself is seriously lacking. From Thursday the 20th all the way through the 24th, we're looking at waves barely 1.0ft to 2ft with combined swell energy stuck down in the low 100s to mid 200s, which is weak. The wind is mostly onshore, so the conditions are poor. It's a real flat spell.

Things finally start to show a pulse from Thursday the 27th of August, with the swell nudging up to 4ft and the combined energy hitting a moderate 581 – still marginal, but a step up. The standout moment, the one you want to circle, comes on the morning of Friday the 28th of August. The wind goes glassy, with a light S breeze at 3 mph, and the swell sits at a clean 3ft from the SSW. The combined energy is a solid 429, and for the first time, the forecast is calling for "good surf conditions." This is the best window of the entire outlook. The swell direction is from the SSW, which is close to the optimum WSW direction for Bay Street, and the period is around 12 seconds, so it'll have a bit of shape. After that, it drops back into the marginal zone for the rest of the run.

So, to sum it up: the 16-day window is mostly a bust. There's a long gap of very poor surf from the start until the 27th, then a brief, promising window on the morning of the 28th. If you're keen, that's your only shot. Otherwise, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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