Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at this forecast and it’s a tough one. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a struggle. We’ve got surf, but the conditions are just not playing ball. The only break on the radar is Bay Street, and it’s a beginner-friendly spot that’s fairly consistent, but the wind is never really on our side.

The water is sitting at a very unusual 73°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year. Feels like summer has hung around.

For the first week, from the 4th of August right through to the 11th, it’s pretty grim. The swell is tiny, mostly 1ft to 2ft coming from the SSW or SW, but the wind is a constant onshore or cross-onshore breeze. It’s a light breeze, mind you, but it’s enough to mess up those tiny waves. The combined energy is weak, hovering around 105 to 237, so there’s just no power. The short period swells (13-15 seconds) mean the waves are weak and crumbly. It’s not really worth paddling out for this.

The second week picks up a little. Starting on the 12th of August, we see the swell slowly build, reaching 2ft to 3ft by the 15th and 16th. The combined energy gets a bit more interesting, climbing to 350 and 357 on the 15th, which is moderate energy. The period also stretches out nicely, hitting 18-19 seconds on the 11th and 14th, which is a proper groundswell. That’s promising for shape, but it’s all coming from the SSW, which is cross-on for Bay Street. The wind is still a constant onshore breeze, which is a real buzzkill. The morning of the 15th and 16th offer a glimmer of hope with a marginal surf forecast, but the cross-on wind is still there.

The absolute best of a bad bunch looks like the morning of the 15th of August. The swell is 2ft from the SSW, with a 16-second period, and the combined energy is 350. The wind is a light cross-on, which is the best we’ll see. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only time the forecast gets a marginal nod. The 12th of August morning also has a light cross-on with 2ft swell from the SW, but it’s a lot smaller.

If you’re a beginner and just want to get wet, Bay Street is fairly consistent, but the crowds are sometimes a problem. The onshore wind will make it a bit of a chop-fest. For the more experienced crew, there’s nothing here that’s going to get the heart racing. The 3ft swell on the 15th afternoon is the biggest, but it’s onshore and messy. Honestly, with the consistent onshore flow and small, weak swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Rusty.

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