Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming.

We’ve got a long stretch ahead, and I’m not gonna lie: the first decent surf window doesn’t show up until Sunday afternoon, July 26th. Before that, there’s nothing worth getting wet for. After that, we’re looking at a run of marginal, onshore-affected days. The best of a very average lot is the first couple of days, but even then, it’s not pretty.

Sunday July 26th kicks off at Bay Street. We’ve got clear skies and a super long-period groundswell. Swell is from the SSW at 3ft, with a period of 18 seconds. That’s proper long-period energy, and the combined energy is moderate at 456. The water is way warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 72°F, which is a solid 7°F warmer than average. That’s very unusual. The wind is blowing onshore from the SW at 9 mph, and conditions are poor. The break is fairly consistent and exposed, but with that wind, it’s gonna be bumpy. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, so if you’re just learning, you might get a couple, but it’s not a standout.

Monday July 27th is similar. Still a long-period SSW swell, 3ft at 18–19 seconds. The combined energy is strong, hitting 603 on the morning. The wind stays onshore, light from the SSW at 6 mph, but it’s still on the nose. The forecast calls it marginal and tide-dependent. Same story Tuesday and Wednesday – the swell holds around 3–3ft, period dropping from 17 to 16 seconds, but the wind remains onshore or cross-onshore, keeping things messy. The combined energy stays moderate to strong (between 536 and 606). Honestly, the whole first week is a write-off for clean waves.

Thursday July 30th the swell drops to 2ft with a shorter period of 14–16 seconds, combined energy falls to 411. Still cross-onshore wind. Friday July 31st sees a slight bump to 3–4ft, but the period is shorter at 14 seconds, and the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore. Combined energy is moderate (433–462). Still poor.

Saturday August 1st the swell is 3–3ft, period dropping to 12–13 seconds, combined energy falling to 291–386. Onshore wind. Then from Sunday August 2nd onward, the swell really fades out. By Monday August 3rd, we’re down to 1ft with combined energy in the double digits (70–96). That’s weak. The rest of the second week is flat to tiny, with the occasional bump of 2–2ft but no quality wind. The only glimmer is Thursday August 6th morning, when we see a very long-period swell of 21 seconds but at only 1.0ft – that’s a ghost swell. Combined energy is 156, but it’s still poor.

Friday August 7th morning has a 1ft swell, 19-second period, combined energy of 203, and a slight cross-onshore wind from the SSW at 3 mph. The forecast calls it marginal. It’s about the best of the second week, but that’s not saying much.

Honestly, there’s no standout session. The whole 16-day window is filled with onshore or cross-onshore wind and marginal to poor surf. The first few days have the most size and energy, but the wind just ruins it. Crowds are possible at Bay Street, but with conditions this poor, I doubt many will be out. If you’re really desperate, you might get a few knee-to-waist high closeouts on the morning of Friday August 7th with the glassy, light wind, but don’t expect much. The rest of the time, it’s a kite-surfing setup if you’re into that.

Rusty.

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