Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, let's be straight with each other. Looking at this 16-day window for Bay Street, it's a tough run. The story is pretty much the same day in, day out: small, weak swell and onshore wind. The water temp is sitting at 67°, which is a good 4° warmer than what we'd usually expect this time of year, so you can definitely leave the thick wetsuit at home.

We kick off Sunday the 5th, and it's not pretty. Tiny 1ft to 2ft groundswell from the SSW, with a wicked long period of 18 seconds. That long period is a classic sign of a groundswell, but it’s just not got any size to back it up. On top of that, the wind is blowing onshore, making for poor surf. The combined energy is weak, sitting at 286 in the morning, just enough to know the ocean is breathing, but not for riding.

That pattern just doesn't let up. Monday the 6th through Tuesday the 7th offers the same story – small 2ft to 3ft SSW swell, always under the pump with onshore or cross-onshore winds. Energy climbs a little mid-week (hitting 464 on Tuesday morning), but the quality is shot. The “poor surf conditions” note is a constant companion.

Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th barely nudge the needle. We see the swell height hit 3ft at best, but the wave comment barely improves to “marginal.” The wind is still a problem. The long period is still hanging around (16 to 18 seconds), which would be a dream if there was any power or the right direction, but the onshore wind just chops it all up.

There is a tiny glimmer early on Monday the 13th of July. The morning session shows 2ft SSW swell with glassy wind – that’s a "glass" state, which is a dead calm we almost never see in this forecast. Unfortunately, the combined energy is just 195 (weak), and the 13-second period is still quite long. It might be the least ugly wave of the entire run, but we're talking about a clean but tiny, gutless wave.

The rest of the second week, from the 14th onward, is a write-off. The swell drops to 1ft, the wind is almost always onshore, and the energy numbers fall well below 200. There’s a brief moment on Saturday the 18th where the energy gets up to 271 with 2ft SW swell, but it's immediately followed by a “gentle cross-onshore” wind and a "poor" rating.

Honestly, folks, this is a long, dry stretch. The wind just won't play ball, and the swell is too small for any south-facing exposed beach to handle. If you've got a kite, the onshore wind and small, weak swell might be your thing, but for a paddle surfer, there's nothing to get excited about here. The forecasts can change, but right now, I'd say save the wax for another week.

- Rusty

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