Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cooking.

First thing you need to know: the water is way warmer than usual for this time of year, sitting at 72°F with a massive anomaly of 7°F – that’s very unusual. Unfortunately, the surf itself is a long, drawn-out struggle. We’re looking at a 16-day window, but the first two weeks are basically a write-off for proper waves. The energy is there, but the wind and conditions are just cruel.

We start with a bit of a tease on Tuesday, July 21st. Bay Street has a 3ft swell from the SSW, but it’s onshore wind and the wave comment is marginal. The combined energy is moderate at 505, but with a long period of 16 seconds, the shape should be there. The problem is the wind. That morning is a light onshore breeze, which is better than strong, but it’s still not clean. The afternoon turns into poor surf. Wednesday through the following Monday is a painful run of poor surf conditions, with tiny, messy waves and onshore or cross-onshore wind. The swell fades to 1.0ft to 3ft, and the energy drops, but the wind keeps ruining any chance of a decent ride. Thursday, July 24th, has a glimmer of hope with a 2ft swell and a very long period of 24 seconds – that’s a groundswell – but the cross-onshore breeze and marginal rating make it a tough paddle for little reward.

The best we can say is that Saturday, July 26th, and Monday, July 28th, show a slight uptick in swell height to 3ft, with the energy climbing into the 500s and 600s. The wind is still onshore or cross-onshore, but it’s light. That’s the only stand-out window: the Tuesday morning, July 28th, offers a 3ft SSW swell at 17 seconds and moderate energy (622), but it’s a cross-onshore breeze. Not perfect, but by far the best of a bad bunch. It’s still only marginal, but if you’re desperate, that’s your window.

The period from July 30th to August 5th is a sad story. The swell stays small, mostly 1ft to 4ft, with the wind staying onshore or cross-shore. The energy drops to weak levels, below 200, and the period shortens. The wave heights do reach 4ft on August 1st, but the onshore wind and poor rating mean it’s just a messy, choppy lineup. For beginners, anything over 5ft is too big, so that 4ft is manageable, but the wind kills it. For experts, it’s a frustrating paddle-out.

Honestly, this is a tough stretch. The only real candidate for a surf is Bay Street, and it’s a beginner-friendly break, fairly consistent, but the crowds are sometimes an issue. The wind is the enemy here. If you’re a kite surfer, the constant onshore wind and moderate energy might look interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a blank run. The forecast can change, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about until that light cross-onshore window around July 28th.

Rusty.

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