Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water's running much warmer than normal for this time of year, coming in at 70°F – that's about 6°F above average, which is pretty unusual. It’s a nice touch for a session, but we’ve got a bit of a wait for any real surf.

The first few days are a write-off. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are flat with poor conditions, just tiny cross-onshore junk. You’re better off staying home.

We finally see something on Saturday the 18th, but it’s marginal. Bay Street is the only option on the cards. You’re looking at a small 2ft swell from the SW, with a long 18-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, but the energy is only moderate (275). The wind is light and cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy, but not terrible. The combined swell energy picks up a notch on Sunday the 19th, hitting 547, with the swell height lifting to 3ft from the S. Still, the conditions are "marginal" with a light cross-on breeze. The swell period stays long (15 seconds), which means those waves will have some push, but the setup is a beach break, and that long period can make the waves close out a bit straight. It’s not a standout, but it’s the first real chance to get wet.

The following week, from Monday the 21st through to Wednesday the 23rd, the surf is pretty much onshore junk again with small waves and poor conditions. Nothing to get excited about.

The one bright spot in the whole forecast is Friday the 24th. The morning sees a 4ft swell from the S, with a 14-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 841 – that’s the strongest energy we see in the whole run. The wind is light and cross-onshore, which is acceptable. It’s still a "marginal" call, but if you’ve got to pick a time, this is it. The swell is big enough for a decent wave but not out of control for a beginner (it’s under 5ft), and the light wind means it should be pretty clean. Bay Street is exposed to the SW, and the swell is coming from the S, so it’s a bit off-angle, but it’s the best we’ve got.

After that, the energy drops back into the moderate range for the rest of the month. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th have some waist-high swell, but the wind is onshore, and the conditions are marginal at best. The period gets very long again (21 seconds on Saturday), which is a bit of a caveat for a beach break – it’ll be a bit walled up.

The final week, from Monday the 28th to Wednesday the 31st, is more of the same: small to medium swell, mostly onshore wind, and poor to marginal conditions. The energy is in the 200-600 range, so nothing special. You’ll get a wave, but you’ll be working for it.

Bottom line: The best call is Friday morning, July 24th at Bay Street. It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest and strongest pulse we see. The rest of the window is pretty average, with a long stretch of flat or poor conditions right at the start.

Rusty.

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