Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mates, Rusty here again. Let’s break down what’s going on at Bay Street for the next 16 days, and spoiler alert – it’s mostly a dud.

The first real chance to get wet is Thursday afternoon, September 10th. The water’s weirdly warm – about 72°F, which is nearly 7°F above average for this time of year – so you can probably get away with a shorty spring suit. Swell is a tiny 3 feet out of the WSW, but with a very long 16-second period, that’s a proper groundswell. Wind is light offshore from the SW at 6 mph, so conditions look clean. Combined wave energy is moderate (341). This spot is for beginners, but be aware crowds pop up “sometimes.” The swell direction matches the spot’s sweet spot, but at that size, with that long period, it’s going to be mushy and straight on the beach. You might squeeze out a ride, but it’s not going to be pumping.

From Friday September 11th through Wednesday September 16th – don’t bother. Every single session is rated poor or marginal. Swells range from 1.0 feet to 3 feet, but periods are all over the place, including a horrible 7-second windswell on Sunday the 13th. Winds are mostly cross-onshore or light onshore, so the surface is either bumpy or flat. The combined energy numbers sit in the low to moderate range (from 110 up to 232). If you see a kite surfer out there on Sunday the 13th, don’t be surprised – the light cross-onshore breeze and tiny waves look better for them than for a paddle surfer.

Thursday September 17th and Friday September 18th mornings are just “marginal.” The swell is tiny at 2 feet, with a long 16- to 19-second period, but the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore. Still poor.

Now, the best of a bad bunch is the final week. Sunday September 21st through Thursday September 25th. Monday the 21st morning shows 3 feet out of the SW with a 17-second period, and the energy hits 474 – moderate to strong. The wind is still a light cross-onshore, so it won’t be glassy, but the size is holding. Tuesday the 22nd morning is almost the same: 3 feet, 16 seconds, light onshore wind. The same goes for Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with the swell staying between 2 and 3 feet. The long period groundswell will make it a bit fat on the beach, but there could be a few lined-up shoulders if you pick your spot. The wind is never properly offshore, though – that’s a major bummer.

So, if you absolutely need a surf, the only window that looks rideable is the mornings from Monday September 21st to Thursday September 24th. Expect waist-high, clean-ish but not glassy, long-period slop. It’s not a total washout, but it’s close. The weird warm water is the only real talking point.

Rusty.

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