Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Bay Street. The upcoming run is a quiet one, with only a small handful of moments worth paddling out for. The good news is the long-range outlook brings a couple of windows that’ll get the heart racing, but you’ll need patience.

There’s a big gap of surfable conditions to start. Looking at the first two weeks, most mornings and afternoons bring either onshore wind or very little push. For example, on Sunday the 12th, early morning is glassy with a clean 2ft SSW groundswell at 14 seconds. That’s a long-period swell, so you’ll get long waits between sets but nice shaped waves if you’re in the right spot. The combined energy is moderate at 210. But the afternoon turns poor. After that, it’s a string of days with little to no quality—through to Saturday the 18th. That morning sees a jump in size to 4ft from the SSE, with a 16-second period and energy surging to 879—that’s strong energy. But the wind is cross-on, and the conditions are marginal, so it’s more of a challenge than a treat. If you’re an experienced surfer, there’s some power there, but the set-up at Bay Street is exposed, with an optimum swell from the WSW, and this south-east stuff isn’t really lining up right. For beginners, that 4ft is manageable, but the onshore wind and lumpy surface will make it tough.

The real standout lands on Friday the 24th of July, early morning. You’ve got a very long-period SSW swell at 24 seconds—that’s a proper groundswell, very long period. It’s only 2ft high, but with that kind of period (over 15 seconds), the energy is concentrated and the waves will have real shape and drive, especially at a point or reef. At Bay Street it might break a little straight, but the quality is promising. The wind is glassy—totally clean—and the combined energy is a strong 500. That’s your best window in the whole 16 days. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

Leading up to that, there’s a minor mention for Thursday the 23rd morning—glassy again, with a 2ft SSW swell at 14 seconds and energy of 157—surfable but ordinary. The 24th is the one to circle on your calendar. After that, the weekend of the 26th and 27th brings an increase in swell height to 3-3ft from the SSW with long periods (18-20 seconds) but the wind turns cross-on, keeping things marginal.

Crowds are listed as ‘sometimes’ at Bay Street, so when that Friday the 24th window shows clean, glassy conditions and a punchy groundswell, expect a few others to have the same idea. It won’t be packed, but you won’t have it to yourself.

So, bottom line: you wait a long time, but the morning of Friday the 24th of July is your real shot. Clean, long-period, good energy. Don’t sleep on it.

- Rusty

Read more