Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming up over at Bay Street.

Alright, straight up, the next 16 days are looking pretty quiet. For the most part, we’re dealing with small, weak swell and a lot of poor surf conditions. There's a stretch from now into the end of the week where it’s basically flat or junk. Things start to perk up a little bit towards the end of next week and into the weekend, but even then, it’s nothing to write home about. The water is sitting at 70°, which is 6° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a big anomaly and feels genuinely odd for July.

Let’s break it down day by day.

Wednesday 15th through to Saturday 18th
This whole block is just a write-off. We’ve got tiny 1ft to 2ft swell coming from the SW with a very long period – 18 seconds on Wednesday morning, dropping through the week. That period is so long it’ll just make for weird, weak lines at a beach break like Bay Street. Winds are light but cross-onshore or onshore, so it’s bumpy and messy. Energy is weak, mostly sitting between 140 and 271. There’s nothing to ride here.

Sunday 19th
A bit more energy creeping in, with the combined energy hitting 475 on the morning and 605 in the afternoon. Swell bumps up to 2ft, still SW, still with a long period (17 seconds). Winds stay light cross-onshore in the morning, turning onshore in the arvo. It’s marginal – the sort of day where you might find a knee-high crumble if you’re desperate, but it’s not good.

Monday 20th
Morning shows 3ft from the S with a shorter period of 13 seconds – more localised, weaker stuff. Combined energy 376. Light cross-onshore breeze. The afternoon drops back to 2ft and onshore. Still really poor.

Tuesday 21st to Thursday 23rd
More of the same. Waves stay in the 2ft to 3ft range, mostly from the SSW or S. Periods around 14-15 seconds. Winds are light but consistently cross-onshore or onshore. Energy fluctuates between 327 and 462. It’s all poor or marginal. Nothing worth packing a board for.

Friday 24th to Saturday 25th
Here’s where it gets slightly more interesting, but still tricky. Friday morning sees the combined energy jump to 1017 (strong wave energy) with a 3ft SW swell but a long period of 17 seconds. The afternoon gets up to 4ft from the S with 16 seconds and energy of 1111. That’s a decent amount of water moving, but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, making it choppy. Saturday morning holds 4ft from the SSW, period 14 seconds, energy 941. Winds are light onshore. Saturday afternoon the swell hits 5ft but it’s all onshore and messy, energy dropping to 876. For a beach break with that long period and onshore wind, this is looking more like a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle wave. Beginners will find that 4ft-5ft too much, and with messy conditions, it’s really just for the keen.

Sunday 26th to Tuesday 29th
Swell drops back to 2ft-3ft. Energy stays moderate (270-666). Onshore winds. Marginal at best. A few mornings with light onshore breezes and long period SW swell (15-19 seconds) – again, that period makes beach breaks tricky. The water temperature anomaly remains massive.

Wednesday 30th
Wrapping up the period with 2ft-3ft swell, cross-onshore or onshore winds, and energy fading to 270. Back to poor.

Bottom line: Bay Street is really struggling for any decent surf in this 16-day window. The best chance, and it’s a long shot, would be Friday 24th into Saturday 25th when the swell size picks up, but the onshore wind will likely wreck it. Keep an eye on it, but don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty.

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