Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Bay Street over the next couple of weeks.

Look, I’ll be straight with you – the first week or so is pretty grim. We’ve got a run of days where the wind is just all wrong, mostly onshore or cross-on, and the swell is tiny and weak. Sunday the 19th through to about Thursday the 24th, you’re looking at small waves around 2ft to 3ft, with a short, weak period. The combined energy barely gets into the moderate range a couple of times, hitting 425 (moderate) on Tuesday the 21st morning, but with cross-on wind, it’s not going to be clean. Honestly, it’s more of a paddle-around-and-get-frustrated kind of week. The water is a very unusual 71° – that’s much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re waiting.

Things start to get a little more interesting from Friday the 24th afternoon onwards. The swell period jumps up, and we see a nice long-period groundswell with periods of 24 seconds on Friday morning. That’s a proper long-period swell, which usually means better shaped waves but also longer waits between sets. The combined energy climbs to 475 (moderate) on Friday morning, but the wind is still onshore, so it’s messy.

Now, the real standout in this whole forecast is Saturday the 26th of July through to Tuesday the 29th. The swell builds to 3ft, and the period is solid at 17–19 seconds, which is real groundswell energy. The combined energy hits 665 (strong) on Monday the 27th morning, and even on Tuesday the 28th morning it’s 521 (strong). The wind is still cross-on or onshore, but it’s light – 6 mph – so it’s not totally trashed. Early morning sessions on the 27th and 28th are your best bet. The swell direction is from the SSW, which is a little off the optimum WSW for Bay Street, but with that long period, there’ll be some wrap. It’s still a beach break, and long-period swells can be a bit straight here, so you’ll need to pick your bank.

Looking further ahead to the end of July and into August, the swell picks up a notch. On Friday the 31st of July and Saturday the 1st of August, we’re looking at 4ft from the SSE and S, with periods around 13–15 seconds. The combined energy is strong, hitting 911 (strong) on Friday afternoon. That’s the biggest swell of the forecast, but the wind is still onshore (SW). It’s a bit of a trade-off – more size, but messy. The crowd factor at Bay Street is “sometimes,” so you might have company, but it’s not a zoo.

The very end of the run, Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd, fades fast. The swell drops back to 1ft to 3ft, and the energy plummets. Not worth paddling out for.

The best on offer: Without a doubt, the mornings of Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th of July. You’ve got a consistent 3ft of SSW groundswell with a 17–19 second period, strong combined energy (665 and 521), and light 6 mph winds. It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest window of the whole 16 days. If you can only go once, go then.

Rusty.

Read more