Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me tell you straight up, it’s been a rough stretch for waves at Bay Street. The forecast is looking pretty bleak for the next 16 days, so don’t be in a rush to paddle out.

Overall Pattern:
We’re in a flat spell. The first real chance of anything worth mentioning doesn’t pop up until the 15th of August, and even then, it’s a far cry from good. There’s a long gap of poor conditions from the start (11th of August) through the 14th. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the water is warm but messy.

The first time we see a glimmer of hope is on the Saturday morning, 15th of August. The swell is a modest 3 ft coming from the SSW, with a period of 16 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, which gives it some shape potential, but it’s also a bit of a caveat for a beach break like Bay Street – it can make those waves break too straight. The combined energy is moderate, sitting at 385. The wind is a light cross-onshore from the S at 6 mph, which is not ideal, but it’s small and might offer a few clean shoulders. The water temperature is 72°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – over 3° warmer than average, so that’s a real oddity.

The Week Ahead:
The 16th (Sunday morning) is similar – 3 ft SSW swell, 16-second period, combined energy of 356, and light cross-onshore winds. It’s marginal. The 17th (Monday) drops to 2 ft with a 14-second period, and the wind switches to a light onshore from the SW, which is a bit better, but the energy is still moderate (279). The 18th (Tuesday) and 19th (Wednesday) are back to 2 ft and 2 ft slop, with cross-onshore winds and poor surf.

Late Window:
The end of the month is where it gets a little more interesting. On the Monday morning, 25th of August, the swell jumps to 2 ft from the SW with a 17-second period. The combined energy is 370, which is moderate. The wind is light onshore from the SW at 6 mph, which is actually a clean wind direction for this spot. It’s only a marginal forecast, but if you’re desperate, that’s your best bet.

Then, on the Wednesday morning, 26th of August, the swell direction shifts to the SSE with a 2 ft swell and an 18-second period. The combined energy jumps to 500 (strong wave energy). The wind is light onshore from the SSW at 6 mph. This is the standout in the whole forecast. The period is very long (18 seconds), so it’s a proper groundswell, but again, at a beach break, it might be a bit straight. It’s a 2 ft wave, so small, but the energy is there. The afternoon bumps up to 3 ft from the SSE with a 16-second period and a combined energy of 812 (strong wave energy). The wind turns to a moderate onshore from the WSW at 9 mph, which will chop it up.

The Bottom Line:
There is no true standout session here. The 26th of August morning has the best combo of energy and wind, but it’s a long way off and the swell is small. If you’re a beginner, this constant 2 ft to 3 ft stuff is fine, but it’s not clean. For the experienced crew, it’s a waiting game. The 26th of August is the one to watch, but it’s a promise, not a guarantee.

Rusty.

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