Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch of coast is not looking like it’s going to be throwing much at us for a while. The first week is a write-off for any proper waves. We’re looking at small, weak surf with onshore winds messing up what little there is. It’s a tough run, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

The pattern for the week ahead is pretty grim. Monday the 7th is dead, with a tiny 4ft swell but poor conditions. The combined energy is weak at 447. The water’s running at 73°, which is a massive 7° warmer than average for this time of year—that’s very unusual, something you’d definitely notice when you get in. That’s about the only highlight for a while.

We’re looking at a gap of about a week with no decent surf. Through Tuesday, Wednesday, and into the weekend, the swell just fades. We’re talking ankle-biters at best, mostly under 2ft. The wind is cross-onshore or blowing straight onshore, and the periods are all over the place—not enough energy to do anything with. It’s a frustrating stretch where you’re just staring at a lake.

The one brief moment of hope comes early Wednesday morning, the 9th. The wind drops to glassy, and while the swell is tiny at 1ft, there’s a long-period groundswell from the southwest at 19 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 236, but the conditions will be clean. It’s not a wave you’d paddle out for unless you’re desperate for a glide on a longboard, but it’s the closest thing we’ve got to a highlight in that first week.

After that, it’s back to nothing. We’re looking at a solid stretch of days where the surf is just not on. Day after day of poor surf conditions, light onshore breezes, and tiny swells. It’s not until Friday the 18th that we see the energy start to pick up a bit, with combined energy hitting 405, but even then, the swell is only 2ft and it’s still onshore. It’s more of the same.

The second week is a slow burn. We’re still in that marginal zone, but it’s looking like the surf might start to pulse a little more consistently. The weekend of the 20th and 21st has combined energy readings in the 350-418 range, but the swell heights are still small—around 2ft to 3ft—and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore. It’s promising, but it’s a long way out, so treat it as a possibility, not a certainty.

The long-range call points to the morning of Monday the 21st as the most promising window. There’s a SW swell at 3ft with a 17-18 second period, and the energy is up around 400. It’s not big, but with a decent period and a touch more push, it could be rideable. Remember, this is more than a week and a half away, so don’t book your day off just yet.

Look, for a beach break like Bay Street, these long-period swells from the southwest can break a bit straight and sectiony. It’s not the ideal setup. You’d want a point or a reef to really let that energy run. But for now, it’s about being patient. This blank run isn’t unusual for the area, but it tends not to stay poor for long. Keep an eye on that Monday the 21st—it’s the only thing on the horizon that’s worth a second look.

Rusty, signing off.

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