Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – this 16-day outlook is a tough one. We’ve got a long, quiet gap right at the start, with no real surf to get excited about. The first worthwhile recommendation doesn’t pop up until Saturday the 8th of August, and even that is only a marginal call. Before that, from the 1st through the 7th, you’re looking at a full week of poor surf conditions. The swell is tiny, coming in at mostly 2ft to 2ft from the S/SW, with a weak combined energy reading (94–233). The wind is a persistent cross-onshore or onshore breeze, messing up any chance of a clean wave. It’s a total write-off.

The first glimmer of hope is on Saturday the 8th of August. Bay Street is the only spot on the cards. The morning shows a 2ft swell from the SSW, with a period of 17 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell, which is a good sign for energy and shape, but it's small. The wind is a light cross-onshore, so the surf will be lumpy. The combined energy hits 210 (moderate), which is the highest we’ve seen so far. Still, the conditions are described as “marginal,” so don’t expect a classic session.

We then hit another run of poor conditions from Sunday the 9th through to Thursday the 13th. The swell stays small (1ft to 2ft) with onshore or cross-onshore winds, and the energy readings bounce around (145–241). It’s more of the same frustration. The water temperature is 73°F, which is a whopping 8°F warmer than normal – that’s very unusual for the time of year, so at least the water will feel like a bath.

Friday the 14th of August sees a bit more pulse. Swell jumps to 2ft from the SW, but the period is still a decent 18 seconds. The combined energy in the afternoon hits 308 (moderate-to-strong), which is the biggest reading of the whole period. However, the wind stays onshore, killing the quality. It’s frustrating to see energy in the water but no clean conditions to enjoy it.

Saturday the 15th of August brings a 2ft SSW swell with a 16-second period. The combined energy is 260–283 (moderate), but again, the wind is cross-onshore or onshore. It’s a “marginal” call in the morning.

The one true standout, and honestly the only session I’d pencil in, is Sunday the 16th of August. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best we get. The morning sees that lovely NE offshore wind at 3 mph, which is glassy and clean. The swell is 2ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. The combined energy is 153 (weak-to-moderate), but that offshore wind will make a world of difference – clean faces, no chop. Bay Street is an exposed spot, so it catches that SSW swell well. This is the pick of the whole outlook. The afternoon turns onshore again, so get in early.

Overall, this is a lean run. There’s really only that one morning on the 16th of August that offers anything close to a good wave. The rest is a struggle against small swell and poor wind. Keep an eye on the forecasts – if that offshore wind holds earlier in the window, things could change, but as it stands, it’s slim pickings.

Rusty.

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