Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the menu for the next 16 days. It’s a pretty grim start, I won’t lie. The first week and a half is going to be a tough slog, with weak, poorly formed waves and a lot of onshore or cross-onshore breeze. The swell energy is low, hovering between 100 and 300 (very weak to weak), and the direction is mostly from the SSW, which isn’t the best for this spot. The water temperature is at 73°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be comfortable in a thin suit or even boardies, but that’s about the only bright spot for a while. Bay Street is a beginner-friendly, fairly consistent break, but it needs a clean swell to work, and it’s just not getting it.

From Friday the 14th through to around Monday the 24th, it’s all pretty much a write-off. The waves are tiny, often under 3 ft, with periods that are all over the place. The standout period comes from a very long-period SSW groundswell on the 14th (19 seconds), but the height is only 1 ft, so it’s just a long wait for a tiny, weak wave. The wind is mostly light, which is a positive, but it’s coming from the wrong direction (SSW or SW, which is onshore at Bay Street). The best you can hope for is a marginal, knee-high slop on the mornings of the 15th, 17th, 18th, and 19th, but with poor conditions, it’s hardly worth paddling out for. The energy is weak, and the swell is too inconsistent.

There is a gap of several days with no real recommendations, but then we start to see a flicker of life towards the end of the run. Tuesday the 25th morning is the first sign of something better. The swell jumps to 4 ft from the SSE, which is a better direction, and the energy bumps up to 900 (moderate). The period is a solid 16 seconds, so there’s some real groundswell energy in the water. The wind is a light cross-onshore from the S, which is okay, but it’s not perfect. It’s still rated as marginal, but it’s the first real pulse of surf we’ve seen. Wednesday the 26th morning has a similar story with 4 ft from the S, but the period drops to 14 seconds, and the energy is still strong at 786. The wind is light cross-onshore again.

The best option, if you’re patient, looks like Tuesday the 25th morning. The swell is 4 ft from the SSE, which is your best direction, with a moderate energy reading of 900, and a good 16-second period. The wind is light, which will keep the surface clean, but it’s coming from the S, so it’s a touch cross-onshore. It’s not a classic, but it’s the most promising window in the whole 16-day forecast. The break is a beach and reef setup, so with that long-period SSE swell, it could produce some lined-up waves, but it might also be a bit tricky. For a beginner, 4 ft is right on the edge of being too big, so keep that in mind. The crowds can be around sometimes, but early on a Tuesday morning, you might have it more to yourself.

After that, the swell drops back down again for the rest of the week, with the energy fading and the conditions going back to the same poor onshore wind. Friday the 28th afternoon has a bit of a spike in energy (491) with a 2 ft, 18-second SSW swell, but the wind is a gentle onshore. It’s small, clean, but weak. Not a standout.

So, bottom line: don’t bother with the next week and a half. If you’re desperate for a paddle, peg your hopes on Tuesday the 25th morning for the best, but most promising, surf of the period. It’s a long-range call, so take it with a pinch of salt, but it’s the only real light in the tunnel.

Rusty.

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