Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Bay Street over the next couple of weeks.

First up, let me tell you about the water. It's sitting at 74°, which is a staggering 9° warmer than normal for this time of year – that's seriously unusual, so you might not even need that wetsuit just yet.

Now, for the surf itself... and I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the 16-day window is looking pretty grim for any kind of proper session. The first real pulse of swell doesn't arrive until Tuesday the 15th, but even then it's tiny at 1ft from the SW. The problem is that wind is a mess, blowing onshore or cross-onshore all week. We're talking combined swell energy readings bouncing around the low hundreds (114 to 271), which is weak to moderate at best, and the wave comments are just "poor surf conditions" or "marginal surf" right through to Monday the 30th.

There are a few mornings on the 17th, 18th, 19th, and 20th where the rating scrapes a 1/10 and the swell direction hangs in the SW with a decent period (15-19 seconds)—that's proper groundswell. But the waves are still only 2ft to 2ft with that cross-onshore breeze chopping things up. It's basically a lake with a light ruffle.

The best look, if you can call it that, falls on Sunday the 27th of September. For the first time in the whole run, the morning goes glassy – dead calm, which is a major positive for clean conditions. The swell from the SSW is still only 2ft with a period of 12 seconds and combined energy of 183. The wave comment reads “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It's not going to get you on any highlight reels, but it's the only time the wind is off the water. If you're absolutely desperate for a float, that's your window. But don't expect any power.

Honestly, there's a huge gap here with nothing to recommend. The swell never breaks that 3ft mark, and it never gets a clean, all-day offshore wind. For a spot that's exposed but fairly consistent, it's a frustrating run. For a beginner, the size never exceeds 5ft, so that's not an issue, but the chop and lack of shape would make it a tough paddle. For the more experienced crew, there's simply no juice in the tank.

Keep your hopes up, though – it tends not to stay this poor forever. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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