Bay Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Welp, it’s a tough stretch looking out at Bay Street. For the next two weeks-plus, we’re stuck in a pattern that’s got very little push behind it. The swell is small, the direction is all over the place, and most of the time the wind is either cross or straight onshore. Not the kind of window that gets anyone excited.

Right off the bat, Monday the 14th is flat-out poor. We’re talking 0.3m to 0.4m of weak SW swell, period around 18 seconds. Sure, that’s a long-period groundswell, but with that little height it’s just not doing anything. The combined energy is weak at 96 to 159, and the morning cross-shore breeze isn’t helping. Light breeze, but it’s still messy.

That trend holds through the middle of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday stay in that 0.3m to 0.6m range, with the swell slowly trying to build a touch, but it’s all pretty gutless. The energy readings climb into the low-to-mid 200s by Wednesday morning, but that’s still moderate at best. Onshore winds in the afternoons are killing any chance of a clean ripple.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th get slightly closer to something ridable — 0.5m to 0.6m with periods around 16 to 19 seconds — but the score is still only marginal. The morning cross-onshore winds are light, but the waves are weak and inconsistent. The energy is hovering around 274 to 340, which is moderate, but honestly, it’s not translating into anything with power. The swell direction is SSW to SW, which is what Bay Street wants, but the size just isn’t there.

The weekend, the 19th and 20th, follows the same script. 0.6m, SW swell, 18-second period. Mornings are slightly better with the lighter cross-onshore winds, but it’s still small. The energy bumps up to 398 on Sunday afternoon, but that’s still weak-to-moderate, and the onshore wind is there to mess it up.

Then we get to the 21st and 22nd. Monday the 21st is probably the high point of the whole window. Mornings still show 0.8m with a 17-second period, and the combined energy hits 396. That’s the biggest swell we see. But the morning wind is a gentle cross-shore, which is about as good as it gets here. Even then, it’s still only marginal. The afternoon drops off with onshore wind and the energy fades a bit. Tuesday the 22nd is similar — 0.8m in the afternoon but straight onshore, so it’s messy.

After that, it’s a slow bleed. From the 23rd through the 29th, the swell drops back down to 0.4m to 0.6m, with periods shortening from 16 seconds down to 13 or 14 seconds. The energy stays in that weak-to-moderate range, mostly in the 150 to 281 bracket. The wind stays onshore most of the time, so there’s no real window. The 29th has a light cross-onshore morning with 0.6m, but it’s still just poor.

So what’s the call? Honest answer: there’s nothing here that’s a standout. Bay Street is an exposed beach setup that needs a decent push, and it’s just not getting one. The best you can hope for is a grovel session on the 21st or 22nd, but even then, it’s knee-to-waist high at best, and the wind isn’t truly offshore. For beginners, this is actually fine — 0.6m to 0.8m is manageable. But for anyone who wants a real wave, this is a skimboard and kite-surfing forecast. The energy is just too weak and the winds are mostly onshore.

I’d say sit this one out, keep an eye on the 21st, and hope the long-range charts start showing something better. It’s a long flat spell, but that’s the nature of the area sometimes.

Rusty.

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