Back Door Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's size up the surf ahead.

Right off the bat, it’s a tough watch. There’s a long, flat spell stretching from now until mid-August. The first real chance of a wave doesn’t pop up until the 14th, and even then, it’s not a sure thing.

For the next week and a half, forget it. We’ve got tiny, short-period windswell, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, with poor wave quality. There are a few glassy moments here and there, like early Monday the 3rd or Thursday the 6th, but the swell is weak and disorganised, with combined energy in the low hundreds (moderate energy). Periods are short at 7-8 seconds, so it’s just not worth suiting up. Honestly, for a few days, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing with the cross-shore winds and small, choppy waves.

Now, let’s talk about the one bright spot.

The standout is Friday morning, the 14th of August, at Back Door. This is the one to aim for. The swell finally gets some punch, pushing 5 ft from the ESE with a proper long period of 13 seconds – that’s groundswell energy. The combined energy hits 838 (strong wave energy), which is a real step-up. The early wind is light, from the north at just 5 km/h, giving us a cross-shore, so the waves will be reasonably clean. The ESE direction is a good angle for this exposed point break. With a long-period swell, a point break is the place to be – it’ll wrap in nicely and hold its shape. The only catch is that this spot is "inconsistent" and can get crowded, so don’t bet the farm on it, but it’s your best shot. Water temp is around 79°F, with an anomaly of 2°F, so it’s pretty much normal for this time of year.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are a letdown. The swell drops to 5 ft and 3 ft, period is still decent at 12-11 seconds, but the wind turns more onshore, and the energy drops to 695 and 302. It’s surfable, but the Friday morning magic is gone.

So, here’s the plan: wait it out. If you’re itching for a paddle, aim for the morning of Friday the 14th. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only real wave in this forecast.

Rusty.

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