Back Door Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s on offer for the next 16 days.

Straight up, I’m looking at the whole run, and to be honest, it’s a tough stretch for Back Door. The swell direction is mostly coming out of the E to SE, which is fair enough for the spot, and the optimum is SE, so that part is fine. But the wind is a real thorn in our side. For almost the entire period, it’s cross-onshore from the NE through to the SE, and that keeps the surface messy. We’ve got some size at times, but it’s rarely clean.

Right now, starting on Tuesday afternoon, the 15th of September, we’ve got a tiny 3ft of swell from the E with a short period of 8 seconds, pushed around by a 9 mph NE cross-on breeze. The water temp is 79°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice thought, but the surf is just poor. The combined energy is weak at 147.

We go through all of Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th with similar small junk – 3ft to 2ft swell, still cross-onshore, and the score is zero across the board. This is a flat, choppy stretch.

Friday the 18th picks up a little. By the morning we’ve got 4ft from the ESE, but the period drops right off to a weak 6 seconds, and the wind turns to a 12 mph SSE cross-on. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. Energy is moderate at 230, but the quality is poor. Into the afternoon, the swell bumps to 5ft from the SE, still short period, still onshore.

Then we get a pulse for the weekend. Saturday the 19th morning sees 7ft of SE swell, but the period is a terrible 7 seconds and the wind is 12 mph from the ESE, cross-onshore, with rain showers. The combined energy jumps to strong at 529, but with that wind and that period, it’s just a big, crumbly, blown-out mess. Not for beginners – that size is pushing it, and the conditions are only for experts who don’t mind a beating.

Saturday afternoon drops to 6ft, and Sunday the 20th morning has 5ft from the ESE with a light 6 mph S wind going cross-shore. This is the closest we get to anything workable – the energy is moderate at 277, and the wind is light, but the period is still short at 7 seconds, and the forecast is only “marginal.” The rest of Sunday and the start of the next week are back to small, weak, and onshore.

The best chance in the whole run is probably Wednesday the 23rd of September. We’ve got 5ft swell from the E, but crucially, the period jumps to a very long 12 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong at 593. Now, the wind is still a light cross-on from the NE, so it won’t be glassy, but that long period will push through better at a point break like Back Door. It’s an inconsistent spot, and the crowds are sometimes an issue, but with that period, it could set up nicely on the long wall. Still, the wind keeps it from being a true standout – it’s just the best of a poor lot.

After that, the last few days of September fade back into small, weak, cross-onshore junk, with swell around 3ft to 5ft and short periods.

If I had to pick a moment, it’s the morning of Wednesday the 23rd. That’s the one with the real energy and a chance of a decent wave on the low tide. But honestly, for most of this 16-day window, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than for paddling. There’s plenty of wind and chop, but not much quality for a surfer.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the 23rd.

Rusty.

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