Afogadas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright everyone, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch is a tough one. We’re looking at a solid run of poor surf conditions right through the forecast period. The wind is the main villain here, hammering us with a persistent cross to cross-onshore flow that’s just going to chop things up. The swell is small and short-period, so there’s no real power or shape to work with.

Afogadas is the only spot on the cards. The water’s sitting at 81°, which is about 1° warmer than the usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a touch above average.

We kick off Monday the 24th of August. There’s a small 5ft ESE swell rolling in, but the period is a weak 7 seconds. The wind is howling out of the SSE at 19 mph, a nasty cross-shore that’s creating a lumpy cross-chop. The wave energy is weak at 178. It’s just not good. Tuesday the 25th is more of the same – 5ft to 5ft of that short-period ESE swell, still cross-shore wind, still poor. Energy creeps up a bit to 233 on Tuesday afternoon, but the quality is zero.

The pattern sticks. From Wednesday the 26th all the way through to Sunday the 6th of September, we’re looking at the same story: swell heights bouncing between 3ft and 5ft, direction mostly E or ESE, periods bouncing between 7 and 8 seconds. The wind doesn’t give us a break – it’s cross-on or cross-shore the whole time. The wave energy stays mostly in the low-to-mid 200s, with a brief spike to 495 on Wednesday the 2nd of September, but even that’s just a bigger dose of the same messy, chopped-out conditions. The overall energy reading is moderate at best, but it’s all ugly.

There’s a tiny glimmer late in the run. On Monday the 7th of September, we see a brief moment of pure onshore wind at 12 mph with a 4ft, 6-second E swell, and the energy drops to just 82. That’s weak, but the wind is at least straight onshore, which could take some of the chop out of the equation. The surf is still poor, but it’s the least bad option. Tuesday the 8th of September looks similar, with a 4ft E swell and a 6-second period, onshore wind again, energy at 119. It’s not going to be pretty, but it’s the only time the wind isn’t side-shore.

If you’re the kind of surfer who just needs to get wet, the early morning of Monday the 7th is your best bet. If you’re waiting for something clean and lined up, keep waiting – this isn’t the window. The consistency is there, but the quality is not. It’s a real bummer, but that’s the hand we’ve been dealt. Forecasts can change, so don’t lose hope entirely.

Rusty.

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