Afogadas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty.

Right off the bat, this is a tough stretch for us. The first good surf recommendation doesn’t show up until the morning of Saturday, July 19th, so we’re looking at a long, quiet gap of over a week with no real options. The beginning of the period, from Monday July 6th onward, is a write-off—poor conditions across the board, messy winds, and weak swell.

When we finally get something to work with, it’s at Afogadas, which is fairly consistent but needs the right pieces to fall into place. The standout window kicks off on Saturday, July 19th in the morning. We’ve got a 5ft swell coming out of the ESE with a period of 7 seconds—not huge, but manageable. The wind is cross-off, keeping things relatively clean. The combined swell energy is sitting at 218 (moderate), so there’s some push behind it, but it’s not going to be a power session. The water’s sitting around 81°F with an anomaly of just 0.4°, so it’s bang on average for the time of year—nothing unusual there.

The real highlight, though, is Sunday, July 20th. Sunday morning delivers a 5ft swell from the east, still with that 8-second period, and the wind stays cross. Combined energy bumps up to 265 (moderate), and it’s fairly consistent through the afternoon. This is the best on offer across the whole outlook—cleaner lines, a bit more size, and decent shape. The swell direction (E) lines up nicely with what the break wants (ESE), so the waves should have some structure. Beginners might find the 5ft a bit much, but for intermediates, this is a solid session.

By Monday, July 21st in the morning, we see the combined energy spike way up to 479 (strong), with a 5ft swell from the east, still cross winds, but that 8-second period keeps it from being chaotic. It’s still a good day, but those bigger numbers mean it might be a bit more powerful—better suited for stronger surfers. The afternoon drops back to 214, so the morning is the pick.

Crowds at Afogadas can be an issue sometimes, but with this long stretch of nothing, I’d expect a few more people out when it finally turns on. Overall, we’ve got two genuine standouts: Sunday, July 20th and the morning of Monday, July 21st. The rest of the two-week outlook is either flat, messy, or just not worth the paddle. Keep an eye on the wind—onshore stuff ruins everything here, and we’re lucky to have cross and cross-off holding through that weekend.

Stay patient, get your gear ready for that Sunday session.

Rusty.

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