Afogadas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for this stretch, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough run. We’re looking at Afogadas, and frankly, the next couple of weeks are a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. There’s a real gap here: from now, right the way through to around Monday the 20th of July, the surf quality just isn’t there. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate, hitting a high of only 608 (moderate) early on Sunday afternoon, but even that comes with cross-shore winds and a marginal call on the tide. Most of the time, the energy is in the two-digit doldrums (say, 63 to 258), with poor surf conditions flagged across the board.

The water temp is sitting at 81°F with a tiny anomaly of 0.2°F, so it’s pretty much average for this time of year – no drama there, at least.

Let’s walk through it. Sunday the 5th morning kicks off with a 5 ft easterly swell at 8 seconds, but the 12 mph SSE cross-wind puts a chop on it. That afternoon sees a bump to 5 ft from the ESE, and the energy jumps to 608, but again, cross-winds and a marginal tide call. It’s frustrating. Monday the 6th morning cleans up a bit with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell drops to 4 ft and the period stays short at 8 seconds – not enough grunt to get excited about. Tuesday the 7th morning bumps up to 5 ft with a 7-second period and clean conditions, but it’s a short-period, chop-prone SE swell that doesn’t have any shape to it, and the energy is still just moderate at 350.

Honestly, every single entry through to the end of the forecast says “poor surf conditions.” The wind is almost always cross or cross-onshore, the swell direction is locked in from the east or east-southeast, and the periods rarely climb above 7 seconds. It’s just not happening. For kite surfers, the beach setup with these steady cross-onshore breezes would be more interesting than paddling, but for us, there’s nothing to chase.

Don’t lose hope, though. This area can flick a switch. Forecasts change, and it rarely stays this flat for too long. But right now? Stay home, wax your board, and wait for the next proper groundswell.

Rusty.

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