Afogadas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for Afogadas is a tough one to write. We’ve got a 16-day window stretching from now through to the start of August, and honestly, the surf gods are not smiling on us. The first thing you’ll notice is that there’s no real green light at the start. The entire forecast period is a long, flat, or messy run. From the get-go, every single session is tagged as "poor surf conditions," and I’m not seeing any standout waves that would get me out of bed. The first recommendation doesn’t appear because there isn’t a good one until the very end of the period, and even then, it’s marginal.

The pattern is a drawn-out stretch of choppy, wind-affected sea. For the first week and a half, from Saturday the 18th of July right through to the end of the month, the swell is a mix of short-period, wind-driven ESE energy, mostly between 3 ft and 5 ft, but with period hanging around 7-8 seconds. That’s short-period windswell, not the kind of groundswell that gives you proper shape. The wind is a constant problem – it’s either cross or cross-onshore, and it’s fresh, blowing 22 to 31 mph. That’s creating a lumpy cross-chop that’ll ruin any chance of a clean face. The water temp is about 81°, which is normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while you’re getting frustrated.

The combined wave energy sits in the moderate range early on, with readings like 524 on the 18th, but it’s all messy energy. Even when the swell drops to 3 ft on the 23rd, the energy is still weak (180), and the wind is still on it. There’s a gap of several days with no real hope – the entire period is a write-off until the very last days. Around the 1st and 2nd of August, we see a slight uptick with swell holding around 5 ft to 5 ft from the ESE, and the period nudging back to 8 seconds, but the wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore. The energy climbs to 330 on the 2nd of August (Sunday morning), which is moderate, but the conditions are still described as “poor surf conditions” with a moderate cross-onshore chop. That’s still not surfable quality.

If you’re absolutely desperate to get wet, the only break on offer is Afogadas. It’s a fairly consistent spot, so it tends to get swell, but the wind and the short period are the killers here. The set-up is exposed to the swell, but that just means it catches all the wind. The optimum swell direction is SE, but we’re getting ESE, which is a bit off. For this break, with the short period and the constant cross-chop, the waves will be lumpy and weak. The swell is over 5 ft at times, so it’s not great for beginners, but it’s not big enough for experts either. The crowd factor is "sometimes," so you might have company if you’re mad enough to go out.

The one highlight? Honestly, there isn’t a true standout. The best of a bad bunch is the morning of the 2nd of August (Sunday), where the swell is 5 ft from the ESE with a period of 8 seconds, and the energy is 330. But the wind is still cross-onshore moderate breeze. It’s not worth a special trip. I’d say hold out. The spot is fairly consistent, so forecasts can change, but this is a long blank run. For now, the set-up looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the persistent side-offshore wind.

Rusty, signing off.

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