Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks at Vagabundo. I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a long, slow burn, and it’s not going to deliver any clean, rideable waves for a while. The first solid window of opportunity doesn’t show up until around the 12th of July, and even then, the conditions are messy until much later.

We’ve got a stretch of nothing but small, weak, wind-affected surf from the 9th through the 11th. The swell is tiny, barely 2 ft to 3 ft, with a short, zippy period of 5 seconds and combined energy that’s hardly worth mentioning (78). The wind is a problem, blowing onshore from the NNE at 12 mph, which just trashes what little shape there is. The water temperature is 72°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

A pulse of better energy arrives on the 12th. The swell jumps to 4 ft from the NNW with a much longer 10-second period, and the combined energy kicks up to 279 (moderate). The biggest issue is the wind. It’s still onshore from the NNE, 9-12 mph, which means the surface is going to be bumpy and hard to read. The break is consistent, but the quality is poor. It’s not a standout, but it’s the first sign of life.

The pattern from the 13th to the 15th is frustrating. The swell drops back to 2 ft-5 ft, and the wind swings cross-onshore, making it choppy. The energy is moderate at best, peaking at 137 on the 15th afternoon. The water is still around average temperature, but the onshore flow just won’t let up.

Now, the second half of the forecast gets interesting for size, but it’s strictly for experienced surfers. From the 16th of July onward, the swell builds significantly. By the 16th afternoon, we’re looking at 7 ft from the NNE, with a 7-second period and combined energy of 464 (strong). The swell keeps climbing, hitting 8 ft-8 ft from the 18th through the 20th, with energy readings over 800 (strong to very strong). The period stretches to 8-10 seconds, which is a solid groundswell. This is a serious amount of water moving around.

The big caveat here is the wind. For most of that time, the wind is blowing onshore from the NNE at 12-19 mph. That’s a fresh breeze, and it’s going to make the surface messy. The swell is big enough to be dangerous for beginners, and with the onshore wind, only strong, experienced paddlers are going to have a chance. The break is a beach setup, so with that long-period swell and onshore wind, it’s going to be a bumpy, closed-out mess for most of the day. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have some company, but the quality won’t justify it.

The best window in the whole outlook is a tight one. On the 21st and 22nd, the swell drops to a more manageable 5 ft-6 ft, but the period is still a good 9-10 seconds, and the wind finally looks like it might ease a little. The 22nd afternoon shows a clear sky and onshore wind at 12 mph, which is still not ideal, but it’s the closest we get to a clean, rideable wave. The combined energy is still strong (400-685), so there’s plenty of power. The 23rd and 24th hold similar size, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore.

Honestly, if you’re desperate for a paddle, the 12th is the first day you’ll see any decent swell lines, but it’s a wind-washed mess. The big swell from the 16th to the 20th is more of a spectacle than a surf session for most of us. The 21st and 22nd are the best bet, but it’s still not a classic. This is a quiet period for Vagabundo. The forecasts can change, but right now, there’s no clear standout day. Keep an eye on the wind shifts.

Rusty.

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