Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. I've gotta be straight with you – the outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one to swallow. The onshore and cross-onshore winds are just relentless, and the forecast is calling for "poor surf conditions" across the entire period. We're looking at a stretch of funky, choppy surf that's going to be hard to get excited about. There's a real gap of good surfing here, from the start all the way through the 18th of August, with no real standout windows.

Let's start at the beginning. On Monday, August 3rd, we get a little taste of swell at Vagabundo, with waves around 5 ft coming from the NNE with a short, weak period of 7 seconds. The combined swell energy is a moderate 210. But the wind is a cross-on breeze, and the conditions are already described as "poor". The water temp is a nice 73°F, which is about average for this time of year, so that's one small win.

That pattern just locks in. Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th are more of the same – the swell bumps up to 5 ft and then 6 ft, still with that short, weak period from the NE. The wind stays cross-on, and it's looking choppy. The energy is moderate, hitting 222 and then 358, but it's all for nothing with the wind.

By Thursday the 6th, we're seeing 7 ft of swell, but the wind is up to 16 mph and still cross-on. The combined energy is climbing to 383, but the conditions are just "poor". Friday the 7th through Sunday the 9th, the wind switches to a more onshore direction, but it's still blowing 12-16 mph. The swell holds around 6 ft to 7 ft, and the energy gets up to a strong 583 on Saturday afternoon, but with that wind, it's going to be a mess.

The second week rolls in, and it's more of the same story. From Monday the 10th through Thursday the 13th, the swell stays in the 6 ft to 7 ft range, with moderate energy, but the wind is a constant onshore breeze. The water temp anomaly and conditions don't change. Friday the 14th sees a bit of a drop, but the wind is still on.

Then, from Saturday the 15th through Monday the 17th, the swell starts to build again. We're looking at 7 ft to 8 ft of swell, with the combined energy hitting a very strong 719 on Sunday the 16th. This is getting into that size where it's only for the more experienced crew, but the onshore wind is still going to tear it up.

Finally, on Tuesday the 18th of August, the swell peaks at 8 ft, and the combined energy is a massive 878. But the wind switches back to a cross-on direction, and it's described as "moderate cross-onshore and choppy". Even with that strong energy, the quality is just not there.

Honestly, this whole run looks like it's more set up for kite surfers than for paddle surfers. The wind is strong and the conditions are choppy. There's no real standout, no clean window to get excited about. It's a tough one, but that's how it goes sometimes.

Rusty.

Read more