Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Vagabundo over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, we’re looking at a pretty disappointing stretch, to be honest. The surf is small, weak, and the winds are all wrong for most of the coming days. The water temp is sitting at 71.8°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so at least that’s not surprising you.

We kick off Saturday 11 July with tiny, weak 1.6ft swell from the NNE and a period of just 5 seconds – that’s junk. The combined energy is basically nothing at 30. The wind is onshore and bumpy, so it’s gonna be a mess. Sunday 12 July sees a little lift, with the swell getting up to 3.9ft from the NNW and the period stretching to 8-10 seconds. The energy climbs into the moderate range at 185 to 248, but the wind is still onshore, ruining any chance of clean waves. Monday 13 July through to Wednesday 15 July is more of the same: small, weak swell in the 2ft to 3.3ft range, cross-onshore winds, and energy values staying below 100 – it’s all pretty poor.

Then things start to get interesting from Thursday 16 July. The swell pushes up to 5.2ft-5.9ft from the NNE with a 6-7 second period. The combined energy jumps to between 231 and 315 – that’s a solid moderate push. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still cross-onshore and choppy. This is going to be more of a messy, bumpy affair.

The real potential shows up from Friday 17 July onward. The swell builds and holds, going from 6.9ft on Friday up to 8.2ft by Monday 20 July. The period improves to 8-10 seconds and the combined energy surges into strong territory – we’re talking 520 up to 1249. The wind at this point is largely onshore, which is better than cross-onshore but still not glassy. For a beginner-friendly spot like this, 6.9ft to 8.2ft is getting into expert territory, so this is not for the learner crew.

The best window looks like Saturday 18 July and Sunday 19 July, where you’ve got a solid 7.2ft to 7.9ft swell from the NNE with a 8-9 second period and onshore wind. The energy is powerful (682 to 917). The wind keeps things a bit lumpy, but the swell has some grunt. It’s not a perfect, clean day, but it’s the best on offer in this whole outlook. The direction (NNE) is not the optimum (NNW), but the size and power make up for it. The crowds at Vagabundo are sometimes an issue, so you might have company.

After that, from Tuesday 21 July through the end of the period, the swell slowly backs off from 8.2ft down to 3.9ft, with the period dropping back to 8 seconds and the wind turning cross-onshore again, leaving things choppy.

This is a classic case where the swell gets big, but the wind doesn’t cooperate. It’s a bit of a tease. For the first week, it’s not worth paddling out unless you just want some fresh air. The standout by a long shot is the weekend of 18-19 July – those are the only days with real power and half‑decent conditions.

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