Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for our little corner of the coast. I’ll be straight with you – this one is a real test of patience. We’ve got a long, dry spell ahead before anything remotely worth paddling out for shows up.

The immediate outlook for Vagabundo is a total write-off. We’re looking at a whole lot of nothing for the first several days. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is about normal for this time of year, but that’s where the good news ends. The swell is tiny, and when it does show a pulse of energy, the wind is blowing straight onshore, messing up any chance of a clean face. It’s a frustrating start, and honestly, you’re better off leaving the board in the car.

We’ll see a slight bump in the energy around the 12th of July, with the combined swell energy hitting 133 (moderate), but it’s all cross-onshore and choppy. It’s still poor surf conditions. This pattern of onshore or cross-onshore winds and poor quality hangs around for days. It’s not until the 16th of July that the swell size starts to push up, but we’re still dealing with that dreaded onshore wind.

The best window we get is from the 16th of July through the 19th of July. The swell is pumping up, reaching 7 ft on the 17th and 18th, with a combined energy reading over 600 (strong to very strong). The direction is from the NNE, which is good for Vagabundo. But... the wind is a solid 16 mph from the N or NNE, blowing straight onshore. This is going to be a messy, blown-out mess. For a beginner spot like this, anything over 5 ft is already a handful, and at 7 ft with onshore wind, it’s a full-on washing machine. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it won’t be pretty. The period is short, around 8 seconds, so it’s a windswell, not a clean groundswell.

Honestly, for the whole 16-day run, there is no standout. There is no session where the wind and swell align to give us anything clean. The best you could hope for is a quick, ugly session on the 21st of July when the wind drops to 9 mph and the swell is a weak 3 ft, but even then it’s onshore.

This is a tough one to write. The forecast shows a lot of energy, but it’s all wasted by the wind. For a beach setup like this, it’s looking more like a kite surfer’s paradise than a paddler’s dream. The blank run we’re staring at is pretty normal for this area when the winds don’t cooperate. Keep your eye on the charts, but for now, I’d find something else to do.

Rusty.

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