Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what we've got coming our way.

To be honest, it's a tough stretch. We've got a lot of swell on the way, but the wind is going to mess it up for most of the time. We're looking at a persistent onshore wind from the north-northeast that's going to chop up those waves for the next week and a half. The swell is there, but it's not going to be clean. Most of the time the surf will be poor, and that moderate breeze will keep it that way.

The first real chance of something decent won't come until the last few days of the forecast. So, you're looking at a long stretch of mediocrity.

Let's start with the only spot on the list, Vagabundo. This is a beginner-friendly, consistent break that's exposed to the swell. The water temperature is sitting at 74°, which is pretty average for the time of year, so no wetsuit needed.

The early part of the outlook, from Friday the 7th of August through the weekend, sees swell running around 5ft to 6ft from the NNE, but it's a short-period, 7-second wind swell. The wind is onshore at 12 to 15 mph, so it's going to be a bumpy, messy affair. The combined energy is moderate, ranging from 200 to 290, but it's not going to feel like it. This is a classic case of the numbers not telling the full story.

We get a bit more size on Saturday the 15th and again on Tuesday the 18th, with swell hitting 6ft and 7ft respectively. The energy is building, hitting 462 and 422, which is moderate to strong, and sounds like it could be fun. But the wind is still right on it from the NNE, so it's going to be blown out. At 7ft, it's getting a bit too big for absolute beginners, but it's still manageable for anyone with a bit of water time. However, with that onshore wind, the setup here looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The real standout window looks like it's the very end of the forecast. On Thursday the 20th of August, the wind finally starts to drop. We're seeing a 5ft swell from the NNE with a 7-second period, but the wind is a light 3 to 6 mph from the NNE and N. That's close to glassy. The energy is a modest 196, but clean conditions trump everything. Then on Friday the 21st, the wind actually turns offshore from the NNW at 6 to 12 mph! That's a game-changer. The swell is only 4ft and the period is a bit longer at 8 seconds, but with offshore wind, it'll be clean and workable. The energy is back up to 226. This is the best on offer in the whole window. It's a long way out, so not set in stone, but it's a promising sign.

Then Saturday the 22nd looks like it could be a close second. The swell is 4ft to 5ft from the NNE, with the period stretching out to 9 seconds. The wind is onshore again, but lighter at 12 mph. The energy is moderate at 346. It's not the cleanest, but it's better than the rest of the junk we've been dealing with.

So, to sum it up: the first 13 days are a write-off unless you love choppy, onshore slop. The real hope is the tail end of the month, with Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st looking like the best shots for a wave, especially if that offshore wind holds.

Rusty.

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