Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s lined up for us at Vagabundo over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – the first week and a half is a bit of a grind. The wind is a problem. It’s coming from the NNE and NE, mostly cross-onshore, and it’s just messing up the surface. We’re looking at waist to chest-high swell, around 4 ft to 5 ft, but that short period of 7 to 8 seconds means the waves are weak and lumpy. The combined energy is moderate at best, sitting between 204 and 457 (moderate wave energy). The water temp is a balmy 76°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while you’re getting frustrated.

Monday the 7th starts with a 5 ft swell from the NNE, but that 12 mph cross-on wind makes it choppy and poor. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th are a little lighter wind-wise, but still cross-onshore, so the waves are just fairly choppy. It’s not surfable in a way that’s fun. Later in the week, the wind swings more onshore, especially Saturday the 12th, when we see a bump in size to 7 ft, but the period is still only 8 seconds, and the onshore wind is 12-15 mph. That’s a messy, bumpy wall of water – kite surfers might be having a ball, but for paddle surfing, it’s a pass.

We hit a dry patch from about Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 16th. The swell drops to 2 ft to 3 ft. The period does get long, up to 13 seconds on the 14th, but the energy is marginal (258 to 289). It’s labeled as a "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," which is code for "maybe if you’re desperate and have a longboard." The wind is light, though, so if you’re just floating around, it’s not ugly.

Now, the real talking point – and the only standout in this whole outlook – comes later. Thursday the 17th through Saturday the 19th. We’ve got a pulse of proper swell. On Thursday the 17th, we see 6 ft to 7 ft from the NNE, with a period bumping up to 8 seconds, and the energy hits 640 to 767. That’s strong. But the wind is a factor – onshore or cross-onshore.

The best window is Saturday the 19th. The swell is 7 ft to 7 ft from the N, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is 973 (strong) – that’s the most juice we see in the whole forecast. The wind is from the ENE and NE at 9 mph, cross-onshore, but gentle. The conditions are “fairly choppy” but it’s the best we’ve got. This is the highlight. For a spot like Vagabundo, which is consistent and exposed to the north, that 10-second period from the N is going to line up nicely. The crowd factor is "sometimes," so you might have a few out, but it’s nothing like a packed peak. This swell is a bit on the bigger side (over 5 ft), so it’s pushing into intermediate territory. Beginners might find it a little hefty. The 7 ft is manageable for experienced surfers, but it’s not a day for the first-timers.

After that, Sunday the 20th drops back to 5 ft-5 ft, and the energy drops to 359-441. The wind stays cross-onshore, and the period shortens to 9 seconds. It’s okay, but nothing special.

The last few days, Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd, fade out. Wind picks up to 12-15 mph, and the swell drops to 3 ft or even 2 ft. The period on the 22nd is long at 12-13 seconds, but that’s a groundswell from the NNW with basically no height. The energy is weak (188-238). Not worth the paddle.

So, here’s the bottom line: don’t waste your time early on. The only real call is to aim for Saturday the 19th. That’s the one day where the swell size, direction, and energy come together in a meaningful way. It’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on the forecast, but it’s the only true standout in the whole 16-day window. The rest is a write-off or marginal.

Rusty.

Read more