Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for getting a decent wave. We’ve got a whole lot of onshore and cross-onshore wind and messy, weak swell lined up. If you’re an absolute beginner and just want to get wet, maybe, but for the rest of us, this is a waiting game.

We’re looking at a gap that runs most of the way through August. The surf is just too poor and the winds are all over the shop. Nothing is coming together, so save your energy and your wax. The only spot with any sort of mention is Vagabond, but it’s all low-energy, short-period junk for most of this stretch. The swell energy is weak, sitting in that 100-250 range for ages, and when it does start to build, the wind is just going to ruin it. It’s not until the very end of the period, around the 1st of September, that we get a hint of something more interesting, but it’s still marginal.

Let’s break it down. Through the 17th to the 24th of August, the swell is tiny – around 3ft to 4ft – with short periods of 7 to 9 seconds. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s going to be choppy and messy. Not worth the paddle out.

Things start to pick up a bit from the 25th of August through to the 29th. We see the swell build from 6ft to 7ft, and the wave energy climbs into the moderate range, like 353 to 716. But the wind is still cross-onshore, coming at 12 to 19 mph. It’s going to be lumpy, and that size at a beach break with that kind of wind just isn't going to be any fun on a surfboard. This setup honestly looks more interesting for the kite surfers than for us.

Then we get to the 31st of August and the 1st of September. The swell is still 6ft to 7ft, but we finally see the winds ease off a little and swing more offshore on the morning of the 1st. The energy is strong, hitting 942 on Tuesday morning. The period is also up to 9-11 seconds, so there’s a bit more push behind it. It’s still flagged as marginal, so it’s not going to be perfect, but it's the closest thing to a real swell we’ve seen in this whole outlook. It’s still over 5ft, so it’s pushing out of beginner territory, but it’s not huge.

So, my honest take: there is nothing worth rushing out for in the next two weeks. The one to watch is the morning of Tuesday, September 1st at Vagabundo, but even that looks like a gamble. The long period from the NNE at 6ft-7ft might just have some shape to it, but I wouldn’t book the day off work for it just yet. Keep an eye on it, but for now, stay patient. This is one of those stretches where the ocean just isn't playing ball.

Rusty.

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