Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the next two weeks at Vagabundo are looking like a real struggle. There's surf on the cards, but conditions are just not playing ball. We've got a solid run of swell, but the wind is the enemy here, and it's ruining just about everything.

The Pattern

The whole 16-day window is a tale of two things: swell that builds and then hangs around, and a persistent onshore to cross-onshore wind that's going to keep things messy. There's no gentle start, no clean window to look forward to. It's just a long grind of poor surf conditions.

The Swell

Now, it's not all bad news on the size front. We start off on Monday the 27th of July with a 5ft swell from the NNE, with a combined energy of (286). That's a moderate wave energy, but it's attached to a short, weak 8-second period and a howling onshore wind. The swell actually builds as we go into the first week of August. By Tuesday the 4th, we're looking at 6ft, and by Wednesday the 5th, it's pumping 7ft to 7ft from the NNE. The energy ramps up big time, hitting (627) by Wednesday afternoon. That's strong wave energy. It keeps climbing until Thursday the 6th of August, where we see 8ft with a combined energy of (886). That's seriously strong. The problem? It's all cross-onshore and choppy. For a beginner spot like Vagabundo, anything over 5ft starts to get a bit much, and by the time we're at 8ft, it's expert territory. But with the wind ruining it, even the experts won't be having fun.

The Wind

This is the heartbreaker. The wind is locked in from the NNE for the entire forecast. It's a moderate breeze most of the time, blowing at 12 to 16 mph. It's either directly onshore, or cross-onshore, turning the ocean into a choppy mess. There's a brief moment on the morning of Saturday the 1st of August where the wind drops to 6 mph and goes onshore, but the swell is 5ft with a 7-second period and the score is barely a whisper. The morning of Sunday the 2nd has a light cross-onshore breeze, but it's still messy. Honestly, the whole period is a write-off for clean, well-shaped waves.

The Best of a Bad Lot

If you were absolutely desperate, the morning of Saturday the 1st of August is the only session that's even close to surfable. The wind is light, and the swell is 5ft from the NNE. It's a "marginal" call, and the tide might be a factor. But it's the only time the wind isn't an active problem. After that, it's back to the same old story.

The Gap

There's no gap. There's swell from the 27th of July right through to the 11th of August. It's just that none of it is worth paddling out for.

The Bottom Line

This is a terrible run for surfing. The swell is there, but the wind is relentless. A setup like this, with a beach break getting hammered by a strong onshore wind and short, choppy swell, is honestly looking more interesting for the kite surfers than the paddle surfers. The water temp is a pretty normal 74° for this time of year, so you won't be cold, but that's the only positive. For now, save your energy and wait for a pattern change. Forecasts can shift, but right now, it's grim.

Rusty.

Read more