Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough read. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but honestly, it’s a write-off for good waves. The only spot we’ve got on the cards is Vagabundo, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to fire for paddle surfing at all.

The first real action on offer starts Monday the 20th of July, but the news isn’t good. We’ve got a consistent run of swell coming out of the NNE, but it comes with a nasty side: persistent onshore and cross-onshore winds. For the first week, from Monday the 20th right through to Sunday the 26th, you’re looking at swell heights between 6ft and 8ft, with a short, weak period of just 7 to 9 seconds. The combined energy is moderate, but the conditions are described as “poor” – choppy, lumpy, and just plain messy. That NNE wind is the killer here, holding the waves open and ruining any chance of a clean face.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there, but it won’t matter much with that wind texture.

We do see the swell building into the last week of July. From Sunday the 26th through to Tuesday the 28th, Vagabundo is pushing 8ft of NNE swell, and the period stretches to 9 seconds, bumping the combined energy into the strong range (over 1000). The wind also backs off a touch, going onshore but from a more favourable N direction. It’s still not clean, but it’s the least bad we’ll see. The swell is big enough that beginners need to steer clear, and even for experienced surfers, that short period on a spot that’s exposed means it’s just a washing machine.

By the first week of August, the swell drops back to 5ft to 6ft. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” There’s a spike in energy around the 3rd and 4th of August, with swell hitting 8ft and then a solid 10ft on Tuesday the 4th. At over 8ft, that’s expert-only territory, and with a period of just 9 seconds and that onshore wind, it’s going to be a big, unruly mess. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than for paddle surfing.

To sum it up, there are no standouts. This is a classic case of wind destroying what could have been a decent run of swell. If you’re desperate, the mornings around Tuesday the 28th of July offer the best shot at something with a bit of grunt, but don’t get your hopes up. In this area, a blank run like this is normal when the trade winds lock in.

Rusty.

Read more