Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for our stretch of coast. I gotta be straight with you—this forecast is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is looking pretty bleak for decent paddle surfing. We’ve got a consistent spot that breaks, but the conditions just aren't playing ball.

The only break on the menu is Vagabundo, and it’s consistent and exposed, which sounds promising, but the wind is the real story here. For beginners, there is some swell in the chest-to-head-high range, but the cross-onshore wind is a persistent problem, messing up the surface almost every day.

Let’s start from Monday, August 24th. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year at 76°F. The afternoon brings a 6ft NNW swell with an 11-second period, and the combined energy of all swells directed here is moderate at (750). But that cross-on wind at 12 mph from the NE makes it choppy. It’s not looking good, mate.

Tuesday, August 25th, is more of the same. Morning brings a 5ft swell, dropping a bit by the afternoon to 4ft from the N. The period is 10 seconds, but the wind is still cross-on and the report calls it "poor surf conditions."

Wednesday, August 26th, the swell drops right off, down to 3ft and then 3ft, with energy falling to 172 and then 125. The period drops to just 9 and then 8 seconds—short period, weak, and messy.

The rest of that week and into the weekend stays small and onshore. It’s basically a write-off.

Now, there is a pulse of size coming in early September. On Wednesday the 2nd, we see 8ft NNE swell, and the energy jumps way up to 952 and then 1043 for the afternoon—strong wave energy. But the wind is still roaring at 15-19 mph from the NNE, making those waves lumpy and choppy. That size is in the expert-only range due to the power, but the quality is poor.

Thursday the 3rd is still big at 8ft (795 energy), but again cross-on wind and choppy. This pattern of size with wind holds through the weekend. By Sunday, September 6th, the swell is 8ft (807 energy) and for the first time we see light, variable onshore wind at 6 mph in the morning. The report says "marginal surf forecast." That’s the closest we get to a window, but it’s still a borderline call with the wind shifting onshore again in the afternoon.

Honestly, there’s no standout day here for a good surf. The consistent size from September 2nd to 6th looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the strong cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. It’s a long slog of poor surf conditions with consistent wind ruining the potential.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the charts, and don’t bother dragging the boards out for a while unless you just want a paddle in choppy water.

Rusty.

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