Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright. Look, Vagabundo is a total bust for the next 16 days. There's swell coming, don't get me wrong, but the wind is a nightmare – relentless out of the north and northeast, blowing straight onshore or cross-onshore the whole time. This isn't a case of holding out for a better day; it's just a long, ugly stretch of poor conditions. From today all the way through the 21st, it's a blank run, and the energy, when it shows up, is wasted.

Let's break it down. Monday the 6th starts with clear skies, but that wind is already onshore at 9 to 12 mph, and the swell is a weak, short-period 3 ft from the north – just messy. The whole first week, the swell stays between 2 ft and 4 ft, with periods of 4 to 6 seconds, and combined energy mostly under 100 (weak). Thursday the 9th sees a little more juice, but it's still poor. By Friday the 10th, the energy edges over 100 (moderate), but the wind picks up to 16 mph onshore, ruining any chance.

The second week is bigger but not better. Around Sunday the 12th, the swell jumps to 4 ft with an 8-second period and energy of 202, but the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. From Monday the 13th onward, the north swell stays around 3 ft to 4 ft with 8–9 second periods, and the energy builds into the moderate range (135–209), but that onshore wind doesn't let up.

Then from the 16th, the swell starts pushing past 5 ft. Thursday the 16th has 5 ft swell in the afternoon, and by the 17th we're looking at 7 ft from the NNE with a 7-second period. The combined energy jumps into the strong range: 308 on Friday morning, 398 in the afternoon. Saturday the 18th sees 7 ft swell with energy up to 546 – that's a lot of water. Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th keep pumping at 7 ft to 7 ft with energy over 600 (strong), and Tuesday the 21st still holds 6 ft with 566 energy. But every single one of these days has moderate onshore or cross-onshore wind at 12–16 mph, and the forecast says "poor surf conditions" across the board. The break is exposed, so there's no shelter. For a beginner spot like Vagabundo, once the swell hits 5 ft it's already too much; over 7 ft it's for experts only, and even they'll be fighting that wind.

Honestly, with that consistent onshore wind, strong swell, and a beach setup, this whole period looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. There's plenty of energy, but it's a battle, not a session. Don't bother.

Rusty.

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