Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's on the menu for our local spot over the next couple of weeks. I've been staring at the charts, and to be honest, the outlook is a bit of a mixed bag. We've got one consistent spot, Vagabundo, that's our only real option, but the conditions are going to be fighting us most of the time. Let's break it down day by day.

We're starting off with a bit of a flat spell. For the first few days, from Wednesday the 8th to Saturday the 11th, the swell is tiny—we're looking at ankle-biters around 0.7 ft to 2 ft, and it's coming from the north with a period of just 4 seconds. That's windswell junk, with weak energy (around 30-39) and the wind is blowing straight onshore. It's basically a write-off for a proper surf. You might get a knee-high ripple, but you'd be fighting a stiff onshore breeze for it.

Things start to pick up on Sunday the 12th. We get a jump in size to 4 ft from the NNW, with the period stretching out to 10 seconds. The combined energy hits a moderate 226, so there's finally some grunt in the water. But here's the catch—the wind is still howling onshore from the north at 12 mph. That's going to make for some messy, choppy conditions. You could probably get a wave, but it won't be pretty. Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th see the swell drop back down to 2 ft to 3 ft, with the wind swinging cross-onshore. It stays choppy and the energy drops off, not great.

Now, late in the first week into the second, we see the swell building again. Thursday the 16th through Sunday the 19th, we're looking at solid waves, 5 ft to 7 ft, still from the NNE. The period improves to 6–8 seconds. The energy values get into the strong range, hitting 152 on the 16th and climbing to a very strong 623 by Sunday the 19th. That's serious power. But again, the wind is a problem. It's either blowing directly onshore or cross-onshore at 12-16 mph. At this size, especially on a beach break, it's going to be a choppy, blown-out mess. For beginners, 5 ft is starting to get a bit much, and over 8 ft it's expert territory. At 7 ft with onshore wind and a short period, this is looking more like a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. The waves will be ugly, tough to paddle into, and hard to ride.

The final few days, from Monday the 21st of July to Thursday the 23rd, the swell holds steady at 7 ft to 8 ft from the NNE, with the period finally stretching to 9 seconds. The energy is very strong, in the 500-700 range. But once again, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore. There's one bright spot on Wednesday morning the 22nd and Thursday morning the 23rd where the wind is listed as "on" from the NNE, but at 12-16 mph, that's still a stiff onshore breeze, not an offshore.

So, the best you can do at Vagabundo in this 16-day window? Honestly, there's no stand-out day. We've got moderate to strong energy, but the wind is just constantly ruining it. If you're desperate for a paddle, the mornings on Sunday the 12th or Friday the 17th might offer a brief window, but don't expect anything clean. The water temp is sitting around 72°F, which is about average for this time of year. Expect the crowds at Vagabundo to be "sometimes" there, but honestly, with conditions this poor, it might be a lonely session. For now, keep your expectations very low, or maybe look into a different hobby for a couple of weeks. It's a blank run, but hey, forecasts can always change.

Rusty.

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