Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mate, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you — this next stretch at Vagabundo is a tough one to write about. I’ve been staring at these charts and the story is pretty much the same throughout the whole 16-day window: poor surf conditions, day after day. Honestly, there’s nothing here that’s going to get the heart pumping, and I can’t point to a single standout session. The swell is there, sure, but it’s mostly short-period, weak energy, and the wind is almost always on it or cross-onshore, just killing any chance of a clean wave.

Right now, starting Sunday August 30th, we’ve got a 4ft northerly swell with a 9-second period, but the wind is a cross-on NNE breeze at 12 mph, making it choppy and messy. The combined energy is weak at 377, and the water is sitting at 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not that it helps the surf. The score is a flat zero. That pattern sticks through Monday and Tuesday mornings — swell bumps up to 5ft from the NNE on Tuesday morning, period still short at 7 seconds, and the wind stays cross-on at 12–15 mph. Energy climbs a bit to 280, but it’s still poor.

Wednesday September 2nd sees the biggest swell of the period — 7ft from the NNE, 8-second period, with onshore winds. That’s moderate energy (664) but it’s too big for beginners and with onshore wind, it’s just a messy closeout. Definitely not one to get excited about.

From Thursday the 3rd through to the end of the first week, we’re stuck in a rut: 3ft to 5ft swells, mostly from the N or NNE, periods hanging around 7–8 seconds, and onshore or cross-onshore winds. Energy stays weak to moderate (129–352). Every single session is marked “poor surf conditions.” There’s a gap of consistent nothingness here.

Heading into the second week, nothing changes. From Monday September 7th onwards, the swell drops even more — 2ft to 6ft, periods as short as 6 seconds, and the wind is mostly onshore. The energy is all under 300. A couple of mornings on the 9th and 10th have light breezes, but the swell is tiny and weak. By Monday September 14th, we finally see a “marginal” rating — 5ft from the NE with a 7-second period and a light cross-shore wind from the east at 6 mph. That’s about as close as we get to something rideable, but it’s still a long way from good.

Bottom line: this is a 16-day window with no real surf. Vagabundo is a consistent, exposed spot that usually picks up swell, but the direction is off, the periods are short, and the wind is relentless. For paddle surfing, it’s a write-off. Honestly, with the onshore winds and modest swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Sometimes it just goes like this — blank runs happen, and forecasts can change, but right now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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