Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – this stretch of coast is going to be a tough watch for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is pretty much a write-off for decent surf, so don’t get your hopes up.

Right now, and for the foreseeable future, we’re looking at a run of nothing but poor surf conditions. The first recommendation isn’t until the 13th of July at Vagabundo, and that sets the tone. The swell is there, but it’s a mess. The wind is on it, and it’s just not shaping up. There’s a solid 16-day window here, but there’s barely a glimmer of a good wave.

Let’s start with Vagabundo. It’s an exposed break that needs a NNW swell, and it’s getting that, but the wind is all wrong. On Monday the 13th, we’ve got a 3ft swell from the NNW with a period of 9 seconds, and combined wave energy of 167 (moderate), but the wind is a light cross-onshore breeze. The water temp is 73°F, which is about average for the time of year with a 0.8°F anomaly. It’s clean-ish, but the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, and it’s consistent, but the quality is just not there. Crowds are sometimes an issue, but with surf this average, I reckon you’ll have it to yourself.

The outlook doesn’t improve. Tuesday the 14th drops to 3ft and 2ft swells, with energy falling to 85 and 62 (weak). The wind stays cross-onshore and choppy. Wednesday the 15th is even worse with a 2ft, 4-second windswell – forget it. By Thursday the 16th, we get a bit more size at 4ft, but it’s short-period stuff (6 seconds) and the wind is still a moderate cross-onshore. Energy climbs to 122 and 132 (moderate), but it’s still messy.

Friday the 17th through Sunday the 28th sees a steady increase in swell size, hitting 5ft to 7ft, with energy getting up to 541 (strong) by the 26th. But here’s the kicker: every single session is marked as “poor surf conditions.” The wind is on it – either cross-onshore or onshore, with moderate breezes and choppy water. The swell period is mostly 7 to 8 seconds, which is short and weak. For a beach break, this is just a sloppy, gutless mess. The bigger days, like the 26th with 7ft and 541 energy, will be powerful but blown out and ugly. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

There are no standouts here. The whole 16 days is a dud. The best you can hope for is a lull in the wind, but the forecast doesn’t give us that. For a break that’s usually consistent, this is a rough patch. It’s a blank run, and it’s just how it goes sometimes. Keep your board waxed and wait for the next system.

Rusty

Read more