Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at this and it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty raw – the wind is just hammering out of the NNE for days on end, and we’ve got onshore and cross-onshore conditions that are going to leave the ocean looking like a washing machine. The swell is there, but it’s all windswell with a short period, and the quality is shot.

We start off on Tuesday, July 28th, with a bit of a nothing burger. The swell is a weak 4ft from the NNE with a period of just 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a lousy 185. The water is a warm 74°, which is about a full degree warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice touch, but the wind is a moderate breeze from the NNE that’s just onshore all day, making it choppy and messy.

The pattern doesn’t really shift. We roll through the end of July and into the first week of August. The swell bumps up a bit, hitting 6ft to 6ft by Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st, with the energy climbing into the 200s and 300s, but the wind doesn’t let up. It’s still cross-onshore and choppy. The period stays short, between 6 and 7 seconds, so there’s no power or shape to the waves.

By Saturday, August 1st, the wind finally drops a notch to a gentle breeze from the N, and we get a clean *on* wind direction, but the swell is already fading back to 5ft to 5ft. The energy is still there (269-341), but the period is still a pitiful 7-8 seconds. It’s not going to be a classic.

The real interesting part of the forecast happens in the second week. Around Wednesday, August 5th, the swell starts to build again. By Thursday, August 6th, we’re looking at a solid 7ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy spikes to 541. That’s a lot of water moving (moderate to strong energy in the 500s), but the wind is still an issue. We get a few windows of onshore wind, but it’s a moderate breeze. This swell hangs around through the weekend of the 8th and 9th, with energy peaking at 641 on Saturday morning. This is big stuff – over 7ft – so it’s not for beginners. The period is still short, so it’s going to be a messy, powerful, close-out shorebreak at Vagabundo. Honestly, with that much wind and that kind of swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The only break on the cards is Vagabundo. It’s a consistent, exposed spot that’s good for beginners in smaller conditions, but this isn’t that. The optimum swell direction is NNW, but we’re getting a constant NNE swell, so it’s not hitting it perfectly. The crowds are listed as "sometimes," so you might have a few others out, but with the quality this poor, I wouldn’t worry about a crowd.

If you’re desperate, the best window is probably the morning of Saturday, August 1st, or Sunday, August 2nd. The wind is light and onshore, the swell is small (4ft to 5ft), and the energy is moderate. It’s not going to be world-class, but it’s the least ugly of the bunch. The long-range stuff around August 6th-9th is promising for size, but it’s a gamble with the wind and the short period. That’s a "wait and see" situation.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change. Rusty out.

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