Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long, hard look at the 16-day window for Vagabundo. I gotta be straight with you right from the jump – this is a tough stretch. The forecast is calling for a persistent run of poor surf conditions, with no standout windows for a quality session. It's a real dry spell, and the only break we've got to look at is Vagabundo itself.

The water temperature is sitting at 75°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won't need a thick wetsuit, but that's about the only good news.

We start on Friday the 14th with a 6 ft swell from the NNE, but it's a short, weak period of 7 seconds and the cross-onshore wind is already making it choppy. That same story repeats through Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th. The swell drops a little, but the wind stays messy. The combined wave energy is weak, sitting around 170 to 353 (weak to moderate), and it's just not offering any shape.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th see the wind lighten up a bit, coming more onshore or light cross-onshore, but the swell is tiny – around 4 ft – and the period is still short. The energy is weak, under 230 (weak). It's not going to be a good time.

From Wednesday the 19th through to the end of the first week, we see a similar pattern. Swell hangs around 3 ft to 5 ft, but the period is a pathetic 6 to 8 seconds. The wind is mostly onshore, and the energy is weak to moderate at best. On Thursday the 21st, the period drops to 6 seconds, which is just bad.

Heading into the second week, from the 22nd of August onward, the swell actually starts to build. By Sunday the 23rd, we're seeing 6 ft from the NNE, and by Monday the 24th, we're at 7 ft with the combined energy jumping to 644 (moderate). But here's the kicker – the wind is still cross-onshore and the wave period is only 7-8 seconds. The surf will be bigger, but it's going to be a choppy, bumpy mess. At 7 ft, this is strictly for the experts, but even they won't find much to like with those conditions. The setup here is a beach break, and with that much swell and strong wind, it might actually be more interesting for the kite surfers than the paddle crew.

The last few days of the window, from the 27th to the 29th, the swell drops back down to 5 ft - 7 ft, but the wind remains a problem. The energy is moderate, but it's still a no-go for quality waves.

Honestly, I can't in good conscience recommend a single session. The entire 16 days is a write-off for quality surf. The only positive is that there are no gaps in the forecast – it's consistently poor rather than completely flat. But that doesn't help you. Keep the board in the bag, and maybe check back in a week; things can change fast. This is a poor run, but it's not the end of the world.

Rusty.

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