Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a pretty grim 16-day outlook for Vagabundo. The honest truth is there’s not a single decent wave on offer. The whole forecast window is a write-off, so if you’re hanging for a paddle, you’re better off doing something else for a while.

The first few days, starting Tuesday 14 July, the swell is tiny and weak. We’re talking about 2ft of short-period, wind-affected junk from the NNW. The combined energy is a measly 61, which is barely a ripple. The wind is a gentle cross-onshore, making it choppy and messy. Water temp is sitting at 73°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing special.

Wednesday 15 July is even worse. Swell drops to 2ft, then 1ft in the afternoon, with the same onshore wind. Seriously poor. Thursday 16 July sees a slight bump to 4ft, but it’s all short-period (5 seconds) and cross-onshore. The energy picks up a bit to 118, but it’s still junk. Friday through to the end of the first week, the swell hangs around 5ft to 6ft, with period never getting above 7 seconds. The wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, and the ocean is choppy or messy. The combined energy gets into the 200s and 300s, but it’s all wind-slop—no quality, no shape.

There’s a real gap in quality here. From the start right through to the end of the 16 days, it’s all “poor surf conditions.” The second week doesn’t offer any redemption. From 23 July to 29 July, the swell gets a bit bigger, hitting 6ft to 8ft, and the energy climbs into the 400s, 500s, and even 748 on the 26th. But the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, the period is short, and the surf is still labelled as poor. That 8ft on Sunday 26 July is too big for beginners anyway, and with those short-period, onshore conditions, it’s just a messy, lumpy ocean. Honestly, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The problem is Vagabundo is exposed to swell from the north-northwest, but the wind is almost always coming from the north-northeast, putting it in a cross-on or onshore position. The consistency is there, but the quality is zero. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s pretty normal when the trade winds lock in like this. Don’t hold your breath; forecasts can change, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Rusty.

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