Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right now, there’s nothing doing out there. The ocean’s flat and messy, and it’s going to stay that way for the first stretch of this forecast. We’ve got a run of poor surf starting now, with nothing rideable until at least Sunday the 20th, and even that’s a stretch – just barely “marginal.” The swell is small and weak, mostly 1-2 ft, short-period stuff, and the wind’s blowing onshore or cross-onshore out of the north and northeast, keeping everything chopped up. The combined energy is weak too – sitting between 114 and 388, which is barely a pulse.

Around Friday the 18th, the swell does bump up – we see 6-7 ft from the NNE at 10 seconds, with energy climbing to 847. But the wind stays onshore, so it’s going to be lumpy and blown out. Not worth your time unless you’re desperate. Saturday the 19th stays similar but drops off a little, still messy.

Then there’s a real lull. From the 21st through the 25th, it’s tiny – 1-2 ft – and short-period. Energy drops back to the low hundreds. Honestly, it’s dead. You’ll be sitting around doing nothing. That’s a solid four or five days of no real surf.

Now, here’s the one, maybe two bright spots. On Wednesday the 23rd, a proper groundswell starts showing up – 3-4 ft from the NW at 16 seconds. That long period means real power, and energy jumps to 640-739. It’s still only “marginal” quality, but that NW direction is exactly what Vagabundo wants – it’s exposed to the north-northwest. The wind turns light, almost still at 3 mph, so the surface might glass off. That’s the best we get in this window. Still small, but clean.

Then, on Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th, we get another pulse – 3-4 ft from the NW, with periods of 14 to 16 seconds. Energy is solid again, 576 to 733. But the wind picks up to 9-12 mph cross-onshore, so it’ll be choppier. Still, with that long-period NW groundswell, there’s potential for shape, especially if the tide lines up. It’s not big, and it’s not perfect, but compared to the flat days before, it’s the pick of the bunch.

After that, it fades back down – small, weak, and onshore by the 29th and 30th. The last day of this forecast, October 1st, is flat again – 1-2 ft from the NNW.

Water temp is 76°F, which runs about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year – noticeable but nothing wild.

Bottom line: if you’re only going to paddle out once in this 16-day stretch, make it Wednesday the 23rd morning or Saturday the 26th morning. It’s not cranking, but it’s the only time with real energy and a chance of a clean face. Otherwise, sit tight – this stretch is mostly about patience.

Rusty

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