Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next 16 days at Vagabundo.

Honestly, this is a rough stretch for surf. From start to finish, we’re looking at a long run of “poor surf conditions,” so I’ll call it like it is.

The first few days, starting Tuesday 7th July, are tiny and weak. Swell is only 3 to 3 feet, with short, weak periods of 4 to 5 seconds. Wind is blowing onshore from the north-northeast, so it’s bumpy and flat-looking. The combined swell energy is low, between 33 and 94 (weak energy). No reason to get wet.

This carries right through the first week – small, onshore, messy. Water temp is about 72°, which is normal for this time of year. By Saturday 11th July, it gets even smaller – down to 2 feet. Still nothing.

We get a little pulse on Sunday 12th July. Swell bumps up to 4 to 4 feet from the NNW, with period stretching to 9 to 10 seconds – that’s more like a groundswell. Combined energy hits 203 to 223 (moderate energy). But wind is still onshore from the north at 9 mph, and the wave comment is still “poor.” So it’s not working.

From Monday 13th to Wednesday 15th, swell holds around 3 to 4 feet, but periods drop back to 6 to 9 seconds. Wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and it’s choppy. Combined energy is in the 81 to 134 range – moderate. Still no good.

Then from Thursday 16th July, things get bigger. Swell climbs to 6 feet, then 7 to 7 feet from the north-northeast, with periods of 7 to 8 seconds. Combined energy jumps to 343, then 422, then 475 by Saturday (strong to very strong energy). There’s a lot of water moving. But – and this is the problem – wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and every record still says “poor surf conditions.” So it’s big, but blown out and ugly.

This bigger swell continues through the second week, from 16th July to 22nd July, with wave heights from 5 to 7 feet. Energy stays strong. But without clean wind, it’s not surfable. For beginners, anything over 5 feet gets sketchy, and 6 to 7 feet is expert territory even when clean. Here, it’s messy.

Bottom line: There are zero standouts in this 16-day window. The wind is onshore or cross-onshore from the north-northeast nearly every day, and the wave quality never improves. If you kite surf, the strong onshore wind and building swell from the 16th onward might get you out there, but for paddle surfing, this is a complete blank. It’s one of those runs where the area just goes quiet. Forecasts can turn, but right now, don’t bother suiting up.

Rusty.

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