Vagabundo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The good news? There’s swell on the horizon. The bad news? It’s gonna take a long, frustrating time to clean up and get right. This is a solid block of persistent, onshore wind from the north-northeast that is wrecking most of the rideable waves for a long stretch. The first recommendation doesn’t pop until August 1st, and even that one is a struggle.

Right now, into the end of July, the ocean is just ugly. We’ve got consistent 8ft down to 4ft surf from the NNE, but it’s all cross-onshore or onshore, and the wind is blowing 12 to 19 mph. There’s some decent energy in the water – moderate wave energy around the 600 mark early on – but it’s lumpy, choppy, and just a messy battle. It’s a solid week of 'don't bother' until we get a little break in the wind.

We finally get a sniff of something on Saturday, August 1st morning at Vagabundo. The swell drops slightly to 5ft from the NNE with a short period of 7 seconds. The key thing there is the wind actually goes light onshore from the N at just 6 mph, which is the cleanest we've seen. But it’s still short-period, and the energy is moderate at 287. The score is marginal. It’s not the day to call in sick for, but it's the first window where you could maybe get a couple if you're desperate. The water temp is running about 73°, which is pretty average for the time of year.

After that little tease, we’re back into cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions through the first week of August. The swell stays small, between 4ft and 5ft, with that same NNE flow. The wave energy stays weak-to-moderate (between 167 and 291). Not great.

The real standout – and I mean the *only* real glimmer of hope in the entire 16 days – looks to be Wednesday, August 6th to Thursday, August 7th. Swell bumps up to a solid 7ft from the NNE. The energy jumps up to 479, which is moderate but feeling much punchier. The problem? The wind is still cross-onshore or onshore from the NNE at 12 mph. It’s going to be a bit of a choppy, lumpy mess at Vagabundo, making it hard to get a clean face. For a beginner spot, 7ft is getting to the top end of comfortable.

By Saturday, August 8th, the swell direction finally shifts to more NNW, but the period lengthens to 10 seconds. The height drops right down to just 3ft. The wind is still cross-onshore. The energy is moderate at 278. It’s a different feel, but the size is too small to get excited about unless you’re on a log.

So, the call: There’s no really *good* day in this run. The standout is that period around August 6-7 for the most size and energy, but the wind is fighting it the whole way. August 1st morning is the cleanest window but lacks power. Everything else is either blown out, small, or both. If you’re determined, look at that first week of August, but keep your expectations low. It’s going to be a grind.

- Rusty

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