Tuhawaiki Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the long-range surf outlook for Tuhawaiki Point. It’s a mixed bag, so let’s get straight to it.

We start off in a bit of a flat spell. Sunday the 9th has tiny waves, about 2ft, maybe 2ft, from the ESE. It’s clean, especially with a bit of glass in the afternoon, but there’s just no push. The wave energy is weak, with readings of 51 and 64. Not worth getting wet for.

The start of the week is pretty grim. Monday the 10th sees the swell drop even more with poor conditions and a cross-shore breeze messing it up. The energy is weak, stuck in the 50s and 60s. Tuesday the 11th is a touch bigger, but the wind is all over the place and the surf quality is still poor. The energy is moderate on Tuesday morning at 115, but it’s messy. The swell jumps on Wednesday the 12th, with the morning seeing a solid 7ft wave, and the energy jumps to a strong 541. But the period is short and the winds are cross-shore, leaving us with a lot of raw, disorganized power.

From Thursday through the weekend, we’re back to small, weak surf. The energy generally stays below 200. There are a couple of clean windows, like Thursday morning and Friday morning, but the swell is too small to get excited about. The wind gets nasty on Saturday the 15th, blowing a strong 35 km/h from the SSW, so even though it’s cross-offshore, it’s not going to be any fun.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The following Tuesday, the 18th, is the standout of this entire 16-day forecast. The morning brings a proper swell, with a 5ft groundswell from the SSE. The period is a long 16 seconds, which means real power and energy. The combined energy is a massive 1157, so this is a significant event. Winds are light offshore from the WSW, and conditions are called "excellent" for experienced surfers. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon will see the swell even bigger at 7ft, but the wind switches onshore, so the morning is the prime window. The long period is great for a point break, but it can also make it break a bit straight.

The next day, Wednesday the 19th, still looks decent with a 5ft swell from the SE, a 10-second period, and moderate energy of 649. Morning conditions are clean and glassy, which is a huge plus. Another solid morning session.

After that, the swell fades out quickly. By the 20th, we’re back to small, sub-3ft surf, and the following days see the energy drop right off into the weak zone, down to double digits. The last week of the window is mostly flat and not worth thinking about.

So, the whole picture is this: the next week and a half are mostly poor, with small, weak, and often messy waves. The one true standout is the morning of Tuesday the 18th. It’s got size, power, and offshore winds. It’s a long way out, so we’ll have to watch it, but it’s the one that’s got my attention. Wednesday morning the 19th is a decent backup. Tuhawaiki Point likes an ENE swell, and this is coming from the SSE, so it’s not the ideal direction, but with that kind of energy, it should still produce.

That’s the picture from here. Keep your eyes on that Tuesday. Stay stoked.

Rusty.

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