Banks Peninsula - Hickory Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Hickory Bay. What a wild ride this fortnight is shaping up to be. We’ve got a slow start, then a massive pulse, then a long wait for the payoff. The water’s sitting at 52°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—nothing crazy, but you’ll notice it’s not quite the usual winter bite.

Monday the 20th is a no-go, even though the wind is glassy in the afternoon. The swell is just too big for this setup—10 ft and 8 ft with a massive combined energy of 5623. Unless you’re on a gun and have nerves of steel, give it a miss. By Tuesday morning the 21st, the swell drops to a more manageable 6 ft from the S, period 13 seconds, and it’s clean with a light offshore NW wind. That’s your first real window for experienced surfers—the energy is still strong at 1065, but the shape will be there. Tuesday afternoon holds at 5 ft, still offshore, and it’s a solid session for anyone who knows what they’re doing.

Wednesday the 22nd is a bit of a letdown—swell drops to 3 ft and 3 ft, glassy and clean but small. The energy is weak now (262 and 196). Thursday the 23rd is tiny, with 1.0 ft and 1 ft, and the energy is barely a whisper (65 and 57). Friday the 24th is flat and windy—don’t even bother.

Now, Saturday the 25th is a tease. The morning has a 4 ft SSW swell with 8-second period and 350 energy, and it’s clean offshore. It’s surfable but short-period and weak. But the afternoon turns into a mess: 5 ft from the NE with a 6-second period and a howling 22 mph offshore wind—that’s just a windy chop fest.

Then Sunday the 26th brings the big one again—15 ft and 16 ft from the SSW, energy readings of 5613 and 5533. That’s a massive groundswell, but it’s too big for Hickory Bay. The wind is cross-shore and strong. This is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th stay messy with cross-onshore winds and 7 ft to 7 ft SE swell—lumpy, choppy, and frustrating.

Now, here’s the standout. Wednesday the 29th morning. The swell is 6 ft from the ESE with a 13-second period (1276 energy), and the wind is dead calm—glassy as glass. That’s a clean, powerful groundswell for experienced surfers. The afternoon is still decent at 5 ft, but the wind picks up to a moderate cross-off. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are a write-off: onshore winds, rain, and messy seas.

Then, the second week. Saturday the 1st of August is looking promising. Morning brings a 6 ft SSW swell with a 10-second period, glassy wind, and 1062 energy—excellent for experienced surfers. The afternoon is 7 ft from the SSW, 11 seconds, and a clean cross-off breeze. That’s a good session. Sunday the 2nd is a bit of a letdown with cross-onshore winds and smaller swell. Monday the 3rd morning has a 7 ft SSW swell with 13 seconds and 1711 energy—too big for this break, but the afternoon turns glassy at 6 ft, clean and lined up. Tuesday the 4th is another big one—12 ft and 10 ft, too big for Hickory Bay.

Overall, the best day on offer is Wednesday the 29th of July, morning session. Glassy, 6 ft ESE groundswell, long period, and the energy is solid. That’s the one to circle. The other top pick is Saturday the 1st of August, morning and afternoon, for a consistent, clean SSW swell. Everything else is either too big, too small, or too windy. Hang in there, the good ones are worth the wait.

Rusty.

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