Banks Peninsula - Hickory Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Grab your board, ‘cause it’s gonna be a waiting game for a while. The next 16 days are a mixed bag, with the first real surf not showing up until Wednesday morning, after a couple of rough, blown-out days down at Hickory Bay. That’s a lot of flat, junky water to sit through first, but when it finally lines up, it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Right off the bat, Tuesday’s a total write-off. We’ve got a strong cross-onshore breeze and a junky 12ft swell with a short period, and the water’s just a mess. The combined swell energy is all over the place, but that’s not doing us any favors. It’s just big, raw, and ugly. Then Tuesday afternoon gets even bigger—15ft from the SSW—with even more energy. No way you want to be out there unless you’re chasing a kite session. That’s not paddle surfing; that’s survival.

Wednesday morning the swell drops to 10ft from the south, but it’s still way too big for this spot, even with a gentler breeze. The water temp is 50°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a small bonus if you’re just sitting on the beach. Still, the forecast says it’s too big for the break, so you’re sitting it out.

Thursday the swell eases down to 5ft, but the conditions are just marginal and the energy is weak. It’s not doing much. Friday, though, is where it starts to get interesting. We get a proper offshore wind—light and clean—with a solid 4ft south swell at 13 seconds. It’s not huge, but with the offshore flow, Hickory Bay is going to look really clean. That’s the first real look of the window. The energy is on the weaker side, but for a beginner-friendly spot, that’s a trade-off you take.

Saturday drops off to 3ft and is pretty ordinary. Not much happening. Sunday is flat and messy, with a long-period swell that’s just not putting any power on the sand. Skip it.

Then we get a pulse of bigger swell coming in Monday the 24th—7ft from the SSW—but the wind is howling cross-offshore and the conditions are just rough. It’s got some energy behind it, but it’s not worth the paddle.

Now, the standout of the whole window is next Tuesday, August 25th. That’s the one to circle. We’ve got a 8ft SSW groundswell with a 15-second period, and it’s glassy in the morning—dead calm, no wind at all. The combined energy is strong. That’s a proper, long-period groundswell hitting an exposed bank, and with the glassy conditions, it’s going to be clean. The only caveat is that 8ft might be pushing the limits for the beginners, but for anyone with a bit of experience, that’s the day. The afternoon stays clean with a light cross-off breeze and a similar 8ft swell, so you got a full day of it.

Wednesday the 26th looks like a gem, too. Early morning is 6ft with a clean cross-off breeze, and then it goes completely glassy in the afternoon. The energy is solid and the south swell is holding its shape. This is the second true standout—clean, glassy, and a size that suits the spot well.

After that, it fades out a bit. Thursday the 27th is marginal, and Friday the 28th has a 7ft short-period NE windswell that’s offshore but pretty junky with a 7-second period. It’ll be rideable, but it’s not going to have the punch.

The following week starts with a dud, but then Sunday the 30th brings back the good stuff—5ft of long-period SSW swell, light winds, and glassy conditions in the afternoon. That’s another clean session.

Looking further out, Monday the 31st is going to be way oversized—15ft of raw south swell with massive energy. That’s not for the faint of heart; that’s for experts only, and even then, it’s probably too much for this break. Tuesday September 1st is still big at 8ft with a clean offshore wind, but it’s still a bit much.

Bottom line: the first real surf is Friday the 21st, but the true gems are next Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th. Those are the clean, glassy, solid swells you’ve been waiting for. The rest is either too big, too small, or too junky.

Rusty

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