Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Look, I gotta be straight with you—this 16-day window for Taylors Mistake is a real mixed bag, and honestly, it’s gonna be a long, drawn-out wait for anything worth paddling out for. The first week is almost a write-off, with nothing but tiny, weak swells and ordinary conditions filling the diary. There’s a big gap of flat, poor surf from now until the 13th of September. The water temperature is about 52.3°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—not a game-changer but a nice little bonus when you finally get wet.

Monday afternoon, the 7th, kicks things off with a tiny 1.3ft swell out of the ESE, period a measly 5 seconds, and a light onshore breeze from the ENE. Combined energy is a paltry 9, and it’s just poor. Tuesday the 8th shapes up similarly—2ft to 1.6ft, ENE direction, period of 4 seconds. The morning goes glassy with a NNW breeze, but the swell is so weak (energy of 14 and 15) it’s barely a ripple. Wednesday the 9th sees a slight bump to 3ft and 3.6ft from the ENE, period finally getting to 9 seconds and energy up to 127 and 182—still moderate at best—but the cross-onshore winds at 15 km/h make it a choppy, grovelly mess. Thursday the 10th offers a bit of clean surf with cross-offshore breezes, but at 2ft and 1.3ft, it’s just not doing anything. Friday the 11th is even worse—0.7ft and 1ft swells, with a bizarre 18-second period on the morning that has almost no energy behind it (38) and glassy afternoon conditions on a 3-second period swell (energy of 4). Saturday the 12th bumps up to 1.3ft and 1.6ft from the SSE with periods of 16 and 17 seconds, energy hitting 116 and 193—moderate energy finally showing—but the cross and cross-onshore winds keep it messy.

The first hint of something surfable arrives on Sunday morning, the 13th of September. It’s 1.6ft from the SSE, period 17 seconds, combined energy of 170, and a light cross-offshore wind from the SSW. Conditions are clean, and the waves are surfable but very ordinary—still just a 1 out of 10, so don’t expect much. Monday the 14th morning goes glassy with a 1.3ft SE swell, period 15 seconds, but energy is only 58. From the 15th through the 19th, it’s back to tiny, weak swells—0.7ft to 2.3ft—with mostly clean conditions but no power to speak of. The standout moment for the whole period is Tuesday, the 22nd of September. The morning kicks off with a clean 5ft swell from the east, period 13 seconds, combined energy of 746—that’s strong energy—and offshore winds from the west at 10 km/h. The afternoon builds to 5.2ft from the east, period 13 seconds, energy of 889, with a light cross-offshore breeze from the northwest. The conditions are expected to be very good, and this is a proper groundswell pulse. At these heights (5ft to 5.2ft), it’s pushing into intermediate territory—not too big for most competent surfers, but it’s got enough punch to be fun. The east direction is off the optimum ENE for Taylors Mistake, so it might be a touch angled, but with clean, offshore-leaning winds and that long 13-second period, the waves should have good shape and plenty of energy. Just a heads-up: with those long-period groundswells, beach breaks can get a bit straight, but Taylors is a reasonably exposed spot, so it should handle it. This is the only true standout in the whole 16-day run—everything else is either tiny, weak, or blown out. The 19th of September afternoon sees a 4.6ft from the SSE with a short 10-second period and energy of 667, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy, so it’s a pass.

For the rest, it’s a waiting game. A few mornings like the 20th and 21st have clean, surfable 2.6ft to 3.3ft swells from the east with offshore winds—worth a look if you’re desperate, but nothing to write home about. Crowds at Taylors can happen sometimes, but with this kind of forecast, it’ll likely be quiet until that 22nd.

Stay patient, mate.

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