Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 13s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 14s period, SSE swell with 492 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 13s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.1m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 14s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 2ft (0.6m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 2ft (0.6m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, I’ve had a good look at the charts for Taylors Mistake. To be honest, the next week and a half is pretty grim. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak swell and tricky winds, so don’t get your hopes up.
The water temp is sitting at 49°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The first real flicker of hope doesn’t come until Thursday, the 13th of August. That morning, we see a jump in size with a 5ft ENE swell, period around 13 seconds, and clean conditions thanks to a light cross-off breeze. The combined energy hits 868, which is solid, and the waves should have some real push. This is the standout period for the whole forecast. If you’re an experienced surfer, it’s worth a look.
But hold on—Thursday afternoon, the same swell pumps up to 10ft, and the energy goes through the roof at 3368. That’s way too big for Taylors Mistake. The guidance says it’s too big for this break, so unless you’re a top-level charger, give it a miss. That one is strictly for experts.
Friday the 14th settles back down nicely. Morning brings a 5ft ENE swell with clean, cross-off conditions and good energy at 582. Afternoon stays clean with a 4ft E swell and 461 energy. Both are solid options for a decent paddle.
Saturday the 15th looks good in the morning too—glassy conditions with a 4ft E swell and 279 energy. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun. The afternoon gets ruined by an onshore breeze, so get in early.
Beyond that, the 16th of August offers a glassy morning with 3ft E swell, but it’s small and the energy is weak at 141. Worth a quick session if you’re keen, but nothing special.
The gap between the poor surf early in the month and that Thursday the 13th window is long—about a week of tiny, average waves and onshore rubbish. Stick it out, because that Thursday morning is the best bet across the whole outlook.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat night, strong winds from the SW by Mon night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Mild temperatures (max 7°C on Thu afternoon, min 3°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, calm by Thu morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | ESE 14 | SE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | E 13 | E 13 | SSE 14 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 15 | SE 10 | SE 13 | SSE 16 | SE 15 | SE 13 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 199 | 121 | 205 | 134 | 72 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 492 | 202 | 162 | 162 | 102 | 107 | 79 | 44 | 232 | 191 | 78 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-on | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | glassy | off | on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:29PM2.20m | 6:58AM2.07m | 7:12PM2.19m | 7:45AM2.10m | 8:00PM2.19m | 8:31AM2.14m | 8:52PM2.18m | 9:19AM2.19m | 9:46PM2.19m | 10:10AM2.24m | 10:40PM2.20m | 11:05AM2.30m | 11:35PM2.22m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:50AM0.53m | 12:59PM0.50m | 1:31AM0.52m | 1:42PM0.51m | 2:15AM0.53m | 2:30PM0.54m | 3:03AM0.54m | 3:22PM0.58m | 3:56AM0.55m | 4:21PM0.60m | 4:52AM0.53m | 5:22PM0.59m | ||||||||
 |  | | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |  | | |
 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — |
 | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Feels °C | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 2 | -5 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SSE 16 | SE 15 | SE 13 |
| kJ | 199 | 110 | 205 | 134 | 72 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 202 | 162 | 162 | 102 | 106 | 79 | 43 | 232 | 191 | 78 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | E 16 | E 16 | NNE 3 | NE 6 | S 14 | NE 13 | — | — | E 12 | ESE 15 | E 18 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | SE 13 | ESE 12 | — | E 9 |
| kJ | 142 | 121 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 7 | — | — | 3 | 22 | 6 | 25 | 42 | 37 | 44 | 60 | — | 2 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 17 | S 19 | NE 16 | S 20 | S 13 | N 3 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 12 | E 12 | SE 15 | E 11 | SSE 18 | — | NE 16 | SE 16 |
| kJ | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 3 | 107 | 2 | 31 | — | 10 | 10 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | WSW 3 | — | NW 3 | — | NNW 3 | NW 3 | WNW 3 | S 12 | S 15 | SSE 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 1 | — | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 619 | 492 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 181 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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