
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 23s period, SSE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 23s period, SSE swell with 1,798 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 17s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.3m 23s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.2m 16s period and expected on Friday (Jul 17) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 23s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 23s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, I'm Rusty and here's how it's looking for Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks.
Right off the bat, we've got a tidy little window shaping up. This Friday the 17th, Taylors Mistake is looking clean with a glassy 3ft easterly swell poking in. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there. The combined energy is moderate (494), and with that 17-second period, it's a proper long-period groundswell. That long period can make it a bit straight at a beach break, but with the glassy conditions, it'll be a fun beginner wave. The afternoon holds the same clean vibe, just a tick bigger at 3ft. No crowds at this stage, so it'll be a nice relaxed session.
Now, Saturday the 18th is where it gets interesting. The morning is offshore with a clean 3ft easterly swell, and the energy is building (869). But the real standout is Saturday afternoon. We've got a 4ft swell from the SSE, a 23-second period – that's an incredibly long, powerful groundswell – and the energy reading is a massive 2532. It's glassy, clean, and the wind is offshore. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers, plain and simple. The only downside with that long period is it can be a bit tricky at a beach break, but for the crew who know their lineup, this is the pick of the whole forecast.
Sunday the 19th is a letdown after that. The morning brings a tiny 2ft swell with very ordinary conditions, and by the afternoon, an onshore breeze messes it up. Monday the 20th is still small with a 2ft knee-high wave, and the wind is cross-off, so it's not great.
From Tuesday the 21st right through to Monday the 27th, we're looking at a long, dry spell. The surf drops to almost nothing, with poor conditions and tiny wave heights. There's a few knee-high wobbly bits, but nothing worth paddling out for. Strong winds blow through the weekend of the 25th and 26th, making it a write-off for surfing, though that cross-off wind and small swell could be fun for the kite crew.
We finally get a little pulse of life on Monday the 27th with a 3ft easterly swell, but it's weak and short-period (8 seconds), so it's just surfable, not exciting. That trend continues through the rest of the week into the start of August, with small, ordinary waves and only the odd clean-looking session. The morning of the 30th has a 3ft NNE swell with offshore wind, but it's a 4-second period – that's just wind chop, not a proper wave. The afternoon of the 31st is glassy with a 2ft ESE swell (165 energy), which is about the best of the second week, but it's still a very small wave.
So, the real call is Saturday afternoon the 18th. That's the one to circle. The morning of the 18th is also solid, but that afternoon session with the 4ft groundswell, glassy conditions, and that massive energy is the standout. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or just plain flat.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Sat afternoon, min 6°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue afternoon, min 7°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 17 | E 17 | E 16 | E 15 | E 15 | SSE 23 | SSE 21 | E 13 | SSE 19 | E 12 | SSE 19 | SSE 19 | SSE 17 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | E 11 | E 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
270 | 465 | 520 | 484 | 447 | 1798 | 763 | 130 | 486 | 77 | 207 | 312 | 170 | 37 | 33 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 3 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | glassy | glassy | off | off | glassy | off | glassy | on | on | cross-off | on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:29AM2.43m | 6:54PM2.53m | 7:25AM2.39m | 7:50PM2.45m | 8:22AM2.35m | 8:46PM2.36m | 9:16AM2.31m | 9:41PM2.29m | 10:09AM2.28m | 10:34PM2.23m | 11:00AM2.26m | 11:24PM2.18m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:21AM0.23m | 12:39PM0.15m | 1:14AM0.26m | 1:32PM0.22m | 2:06AM0.31m | 2:25PM0.33m | 2:59AM0.39m | 3:20PM0.47m | 3:53AM0.47m | 4:17PM0.60m | 4:46AM0.55m | 5:15PM0.70m | |||||||
— | 7:56 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
Feels °C | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 17 | E 17 | E 16 | E 15 | E 15 | E 14 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | SSE 19 | SSE 19 | SSE 17 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | ENE 4 | ENE 5 | NE 5 | SE 9 |
270 | 465 | 520 | 484 | 447 | 333 | 246 | 130 | 125 | 77 | 207 | 312 | 170 | 37 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | SSE 16 | S 16 | S 19 | SSE 23 | SSE 23 | SSE 21 | SSE 16 | SSE 19 | SSE 14 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | NE 4 | SSE 11 | SSE 11 | E 11 | NE 5 |
5 | 26 | 5 | 7 | 422 | 401 | 253 | 51 | 122 | 36 | 49 | 48 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 1 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | NNE 4 | — | S 20 | — | SSE 23 | SSE 21 | SE 21 | SSE 19 | SSE 18 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | — | SSE 17 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | SE 10 | E 11 |
67 | 3 | — | 31 | — | 1798 | 763 | 18 | 486 | 31 | 6 | 3 | — | 28 | 24 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSE 4 | — | — | NE 3 | — | — | — | — | — |
1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 32 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.










