Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 08 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
11.1°C
1.9° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 8 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 8s period, ENE swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 12 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 19s period, SSE swell with 203 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 8s period with ENE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 8s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 9s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 12) at 3AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Wed 9th Sep)3ft (0.9m) 8s
Best Surf 9PM (Wed 9th Sep)3ft (0.9m) 8s
Most Powerful 3PM (Sat 12th Sep)1.5ft (0.5m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, with a look at what’s on the table for Taylors Mistake over the next few weeks. I gotta be straight with you, it’s going to be a long wait. The forecast is pretty grim for a solid stretch, so don’t be in a hurry to wax up.

Right now and for the next several days, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing. The swell is tiny and the wind isn’t playing ball. The water’s sitting at 52°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only upside. The combined swell energy is barely registering, often under 100 (7). It’s just a flat spell, plain and simple.

We get a little tease on the Saturday the 12th afternoon. A late glass-off with some light ESE breeze, and a groundswell rolling in from the SSE at 2 ft. The period is a very long 19 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. At a beach break like Taylors, that long period can make the waves break a bit too straight, but it does mean longer gaps between sets. The combined swell energy nudges up a bit (221), but the waves are described as "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions". It’s not going to be any sort of classic, but if you’re desperate you might find a fun little ankle-snatcher. Crowds are possible here, and with nothing else on offer, that "sometimes" could turn into "everyone and their dog".

Sunday the 13th morning has a bit of hope with a glassy 1 ft SSE swell, but the energy is still weak (78). The afternoon gets choppy again. Then we go back into a proper dry spell. There’s a massive gap from Monday the 14th right through until Thursday the 17th morning. On that Thursday, we see a 2 ft SSE groundswell with a 13-second period and a nice clean offshore NW wind. The energy is moderate (112). It’s another “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” call. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but that’s not saying much.

After that, it’s more of the same. A brief uptick on Friday the 18th morning with some clean 4 ft NNE windswell, but the period is a short, weak 6 seconds. The energy is moderate (132), but those are just wind slop. It’s about the biggest swell in the whole 16-day window, but it’s not quality.

The rest of the run into late September and even up to the 23rd is a mix of tiny swell and strong, clean offshore winds. The wind is right, but the ocean just isn’t giving us any swell to work with. The energy numbers are all in the weak to very weak range. It’s a frustrating period for a surfer.

In short, don’t get your hopes up. It’s a long, flat stretch with only the faintest flickers of something surfable. Forecasts can always change, but as it stands, you’re better off taking a few weeks off.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 10°C on Wed morning, min 4°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Fri afternoon, min 7°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Tue
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
ENE
4
0.4
ENE
8
0.7
ENE
9
1.1
ENE
9
0.9
ENE
8
0.6
E
8
0.4
ENE
8
0.3
E
8
0.2
SSE
18
0.2
E
8
0.1
E
14
0.5
SSE
18
0.5
SSE
19
0.5
SSE
17
0.4
SSE
14
0.4
SSE
13
0.4
SE
13
0.4
SE
12
0.4
SE
12
0.2
SSE
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
6
23
82
176
96
48
21
10
32
5
4
174
203
168
73
69
42
35
37
11
Wind (km/h)
10
E
10
NE
15
NE
20
ENE
10
WNW
20
SW
20
SSW
10
W
10
NNE
5
SW
10
S
20
NNE
5
SE
5
N
5
NW
5
ENE
5
NE
10
NE
5
NE
5
NW
Wind State
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross
glassy
cross-off
cross-on
glassy
glassy
glassy
cross-on
glassy
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
High Tide
2:05AM2.30m
2:31PM2.40m
2:57AM2.31m
3:23PM2.40m
3:48AM2.32m
4:15PM2.39m
4:41AM2.32m
5:07PM2.36m
5:37AM2.32m
6:00PM2.33m
6:33AM2.32m
6:53PM2.28m
Low Tide
7:54PM0.36m
8:14AM0.31m
8:45PM0.33m
9:10AM0.29m
9:38PM0.33m
10:05AM0.28m
10:32PM0.34m
10:58AM0.30m
11:26PM0.36m
11:50AM0.36m
00:17AM0.40m
12:41PM0.45m
1:05AM0.46m
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
mod rain
rain showers
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
clear
cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:08
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
6:15
6:15
 mm
6
1
Temp °C
9
9
10
10
9
7
8
6
8
12
9
9
11
9
10
11
10
10
11
10
Feels °C
6
7
6
5
6
2
2
2
6
10
6
6
9
7
7
8
7
8
8
9
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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