Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 19 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
10.3° C
0.9° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 12s period, ESE swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 19s period, SSE swell with 322 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 12s period with ESE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 12s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 18s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.7m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 12s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 9AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12AM (Mon 20th Jul)2.5ft (0.8m) 12s
Best Surf12AM (Mon 20th Jul)2.5ft (0.8m) 12s
Most Powerful 9AM (Mon 20th Jul)2.5ft (0.7m) 19s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the charts for the coming weeks.

Straight up, it's a tough run for Taylors Mistake. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak energy and not much to get excited about. The whole 16-day window is pretty much a write-off for decent waves, but there are a couple of tiny windows that might get you wet.

The first real chance comes on Sunday, July 19th. It's tiny, with a 1ft swell from the SSE, but the period is a massive 19 seconds – that's a proper groundswell, just no size. The water is a nippy 51°F, which is about normal for this time of year. The best part is the wind is glassy, absolute zero, so the surface will be like a mirror. It's a beginner spot, so perfect for a longboard if you're desperate, but the wave energy is really weak (267).

Monday, July 20th morning is similar. The swell bumps up to 2ft from the SSE with that same long 19-second period, and again, glassy conditions. The energy is moderate (371), but it's still a very small wave. The window is tiny though, as the afternoon turns into a light cross-onshore (5 km/h), which will mess up the surface.

After that, it’s a desert. From Tuesday, July 21st right through to the end of the month, we’ve got days and days of poor surf. The swell drops to 0.7ft or 1.0ft, the period is short and messy, and the wind is often onshore or strong. There’s a bit of a spike on Sunday, July 26th morning with a 2ft, 15-second easterly swell and clean cross-offshore winds, but it’s still very small and described as "surfable but very ordinary." The energy is moderate (110), but it’s not worth paddling out for.

The final week of July into August looks just as bleak. The swell stays tiny, and the wind is mostly cross or onshore. There’s a moment on Wednesday, July 29th morning with glassy conditions, but the swell is only 1.0ft. The only real energy spike comes on Thursday, July 30th morning with a 4ft, short-period (5 seconds) northeasterly windswell, but the wind is a light cross-onshore (10 km/h), so it’s going to be a bumpy, weak mess.

The best of a bad bunch? Honestly, it’s the Sunday, July 19th afternoon or Monday, July 20th morning. If you’ve got a log and a whole lot of patience, the glassy surface and long-period groundswell will make the knee-high waves feel like a treat. But for anyone looking for a proper wave, keep the board in the car.

For this spot, a blank run is pretty normal. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s not looking good for paddling.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 10°C on Sun afternoon, min 7°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 5°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNE on Thu night, calm by Fri night).

Sun
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wednesday
22
Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
E
13
0.8
ESE
12
0.7
SSE
19
0.7
SSE
19
0.4
SSE
16
0.3
SSE
14
0.3
SSE
13
0.2
SSE
11
0.2
E
11
0.1
E
11
0.1
SE
12
0.8
NE
4
0.4
ENE
4
0.8
NE
4
0.3
NE
8
0.4
NE
8
0.2
ESE
13
0.2
ESE
13
0.2
ESE
14
0.4
ESE
16
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
142
190
322
312
107
36
31
12
9
4
6
21
8
20
10
16
17
17
20
85
Wind (km/h)
0
SSW
5
NW
0
NE
5
ENE
15
NE
5
WNW
5
NNE
5
W
5
SW
5
NE
10
NE
10
NE
5
ENE
25
NNE
20
N
30
NNW
10
SW
5
NW
5
SSE
10
NW
Wind State
glassy
glassy
glassy
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
glassy
glassy
glassy
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
High Tide
8:46PM2.36m
9:16AM2.31m
9:41PM2.29m
10:09AM2.28m
10:34PM2.23m
11:00AM2.26m
11:24PM2.18m
11:52AM2.24m
00:13AM2.14m
12:42PM2.23m
1:02AM2.11m
1:30PM2.22m
1:51AM2.09m
Low Tide
2:59AM0.39m
3:20PM0.47m
3:53AM0.47m
4:17PM0.60m
4:46AM0.55m
5:15PM0.70m
5:37AM0.63m
6:12PM0.76m
6:24AM0.69m
7:05PM0.79m
7:08AM0.73m
7:52PM0.79m
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:54
7:52
7:52
7:50
7:50
7:50
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:19
5:20
5:21
 mm
5
1
1
Temp °C
10
9
9
9
8
9
10
9
10
10
9
9
10
12
13
13
9
7
8
4
Feels °C
9
7
6
6
5
7
8
6
8
7
6
7
7
5
8
6
4
3
5
0
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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