Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, with a look at what’s on the table for Taylors Mistake over the next few weeks. I gotta be straight with you, it’s going to be a long wait. The forecast is pretty grim for a solid stretch, so don’t be in a hurry to wax up.

Right now and for the next several days, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing. The swell is tiny and the wind isn’t playing ball. The water’s sitting at 52°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only upside. The combined swell energy is barely registering, often under 100 (7). It’s just a flat spell, plain and simple.

We get a little tease on the Saturday the 12th afternoon. A late glass-off with some light ESE breeze, and a groundswell rolling in from the SSE at 2 ft. The period is a very long 19 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. At a beach break like Taylors, that long period can make the waves break a bit too straight, but it does mean longer gaps between sets. The combined swell energy nudges up a bit (221), but the waves are described as "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions". It’s not going to be any sort of classic, but if you’re desperate you might find a fun little ankle-snatcher. Crowds are possible here, and with nothing else on offer, that "sometimes" could turn into "everyone and their dog".

Sunday the 13th morning has a bit of hope with a glassy 1 ft SSE swell, but the energy is still weak (78). The afternoon gets choppy again. Then we go back into a proper dry spell. There’s a massive gap from Monday the 14th right through until Thursday the 17th morning. On that Thursday, we see a 2 ft SSE groundswell with a 13-second period and a nice clean offshore NW wind. The energy is moderate (112). It’s another “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” call. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but that’s not saying much.

After that, it’s more of the same. A brief uptick on Friday the 18th morning with some clean 4 ft NNE windswell, but the period is a short, weak 6 seconds. The energy is moderate (132), but those are just wind slop. It’s about the biggest swell in the whole 16-day window, but it’s not quality.

The rest of the run into late September and even up to the 23rd is a mix of tiny swell and strong, clean offshore winds. The wind is right, but the ocean just isn’t giving us any swell to work with. The energy numbers are all in the weak to very weak range. It’s a frustrating period for a surfer.

In short, don’t get your hopes up. It’s a long, flat stretch with only the faintest flickers of something surfable. Forecasts can always change, but as it stands, you’re better off taking a few weeks off.

Rusty

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