Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 6s period, S swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 20s period, SSE swell with 230 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 6s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.3m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 5s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 9s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.5m 20s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 6s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 20s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
The next couple of weeks are looking flat as a tack for Taylors Mistake—nothing worth wetting a wetsuit for. There’s a big gap before anything even remotely rideable shows up, and even then, it’s marginal. The first week’s a write-off, with nothing over 0.5m (that’s about 2ft) and most days just tiny, weak swell.
From Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 23rd, it’s all knee-high dribble. Swell energy is weak, staying in the single to low double digits—sometimes 33, sometimes 88—but the waves are just too small to matter. The wind’s often light and occasionally offshore, giving you clean conditions, but clean and flat is still flat. You’d be better off checking the tide pools.
Thursday the 24th is the only real blip. Swell barely reaches 0.4m (1ft) from the SSE, with a long 13-15 second period—that’s groundswell, so there’s some push, but the size just isn’t there. Morning has a light W offshore, and the afternoon goes dead calm, glassy. It’s pretty, but you’re looking at ankle-biters. The combined energy ticks up to 72 and 88, which is moderate, but the waves don’t have any oomph. Not a highlight, just a tease.
From the 25th through the 29th, it’s back to the same old story—0.2m to 0.4m (about 0.6ft to 1ft), weak energy, and a few clean windows but no real surf. The 27th has a fresh 30-35 km/h cross-offshore wind that keeps things tidy, but with waves that small, it’s more about the breeze than the break.
Water temp on the 14th is 11° (about 51°F), a touch warmer than usual for this time of year—nothing wild, just a slight comfort boost. Crowds are only sometimes an issue, but honestly, no one’s going to bother with this. Taylors is a spot that’s rarely breaking anyway, and this stretch is proof.
So, straight up: no good surf in this whole 16-day window. It’s a blank run, and for this break, that’s pretty normal. Things can change, but right now, you’re better off waiting for a proper swell.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 8°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 4°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | ENE 13 | NE 6 | NE 5 | N 3 | S 4 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | E 15 | E 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | E 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SSE 14 | SSE 20 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 30 | 26 | 23 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 87 | 83 | 89 | 71 | 41 | 41 | 23 | 180 | 230 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-on | glassy | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on |
High Tide | 6:53PM2.28m | 7:26AM2.33m | 7:46PM2.23m | 8:15AM2.32m | 8:38PM2.18m | 9:01AM2.28m | 9:27PM2.14m | 9:45AM2.23m | 10:14PM2.10m | 10:30AM2.17m | 10:58PM2.06m | 11:18AM2.12m | 11:44PM2.02m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:41PM0.45m | 1:05AM0.46m | 1:32PM0.55m | 1:52AM0.55m | 2:23PM0.64m | 2:39AM0.65m | 3:13PM0.71m | 3:27AM0.73m | 4:02PM0.76m | 4:15AM0.79m | 4:51PM0.79m | 5:02AM0.80m | 5:41PM0.80m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — |
 | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:17 | — | — | 6:19 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:21 | — | — | 6:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SSE 8 | NE 6 | NE 5 | ENE 5 | NE 9 | ESE 11 | SE 5 | ESE 9 | E 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | E 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SSE 14 | SSE 20 |
| kJ | 30 | 26 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 87 | 83 | 89 | 71 | 41 | 41 | 23 | 180 | 230 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | E 12 | — | — | E 11 | SE 8 | SE 10 | SE 10 | ENE 5 | ENE 6 | ESE 10 | ESE 5 | SE 4 | S 16 | ENE 8 | S 16 | NE 3 | E 9 | SSE 4 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 |
| kJ | — | 3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 12 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | S 16 | E 11 | E 11 | S 14 | SE 11 | E 13 | NE 7 | SSE 4 | NE 8 | NE 5 | E 15 | S 16 | S 16 | — | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | S 16 | NNE 4 | NE 9 | E 8 |
| kJ | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 118 | — | 6 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ENE 3 | NNE 3 | — | ENE 13 | NNW 3 | N 3 | N 3 | S 4 | SE 5 | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 10 | N 4 | N 4 | S 6 | — | NNE 4 |
| kJ | — | 1 | 1 | — | 17 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 23 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | 11 | 6 | 17 | 75 | — | 7 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 31 | 22 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 22 | 22 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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