Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 pm 15 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
10.0° C
0.6° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period, E swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 17s period, E swell with 552 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 13s period with E swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 18s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9AM (Thu 16th Jul)1ft (0.3m) 13s
Best Surf 9AM (Sat 18th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 15s
Most Powerful12PM (Fri 17th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up at Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks. The first few days are pretty quiet, but there’s a real sweet spot in the middle of the period that’s worth getting excited about. After that, it fades back into small stuff.

The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, nothing weird going on.

Thursday the 16th is a write-off. Tiny 1ft to 2ft easterly slop with a cross-off breeze in the morning, turning cross-on in the arvo. The combined energy is a weak 57 (morning) and 94 (afternoon). Not worth paddling out for.

Now, Friday the 17th is where it starts to get interesting. Morning brings a glassy 3ft easterly swell, period 17 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, long lines. Combined energy is a solid 491 (moderate). The wind is glass, dead calm. The arvo stays glassy with 4ft easterly and 520 energy. This is the standout. The waves will be clean, well-shaped, and with that long period, it’s best on the point or reef rather than the beach – it might break too straight if you’re out on the sand. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

Saturday the 18th keeps it going. Morning has 4ft easterly swell with an offshore wind (WSW 6 mph), energy is 745 (moderate). The arvo is 3ft from the ESE with a light offshore (WNW 3 mph), energy 642. Both sessions are clean. This is another top pick.

Sunday the 19th drops off a bit. 3ft easterly in the morning, offshore wind, but energy is down to 241. The arvo is glassy with 2ft easterly, energy 205. Surfable, but nothing special.

Monday the 20th is messy with light rain and onshore wind, 3ft to 2ft ESE swell, energy around 324-434. Questionable conditions.

From Tuesday the 21st onwards, it’s a long stretch of tiny surf. You’re looking at 2ft down to 0.5ft for days, with poor conditions and weak energy readings as low as 7. This run lasts through to the end of the month. There’s a little blip on Thursday the 30th with a glassy 2ft easterly swell (energy 123) and a calm wind, but it’s small. Friday the 31st has 4ft ESE swell but cross-on wind, so it’s messy.

Bottom line: The best of it is Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th. The Friday morning glassy session with that long-period groundswell is the one to aim for. Get in before the crowds. After that, it’s a long, flat run.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 6°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Sun afternoon, min 7°C on Mon afternoon). Wind will be generally light.

Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
Wed
22
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Rating
(10 max)
0
1
0
1
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
E
13
0.3
E
13
0.4
E
16
0.7
E
16
0.9
E
17
1
E
16
1
E
15
1
E
15
0.9
ESE
14
0.7
E
14
0.7
E
13
0.6
E
13
0.4
SSE
18
0.8
ESE
12
0.6
SE
18
0.4
SSE
18
0.4
SSE
17
0.4
SSE
16
0.3
SSE
15
0.2
SSE
12
0.2
SSE
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
14
31
83
267
465
520
484
447
346
189
176
125
124
164
255
120
119
105
44
13
11
Wind (km/h)
5
N
10
S
10
NE
5
E
5
WNW
5
NE
5
NE
10
W
5
WNW
5
E
10
WSW
5
SSE
5
ESE
10
E
10
E
10
NE
10
NNE
10
ENE
5
N
5
SW
5
ENE
Wind State
glassy
cross-off
cross-on
on
glassy
glassy
glassy
off
off
glassy
off
glassy
glassy
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
glassy
glassy
High Tide
5:33AM2.46m
6:00PM2.60m
6:29AM2.43m
6:54PM2.53m
7:25AM2.39m
7:50PM2.45m
8:22AM2.35m
8:46PM2.36m
9:16AM2.31m
9:41PM2.29m
10:09AM2.28m
10:34PM2.23m
11:00AM2.26m
Low Tide
11:25PM0.22m
11:46AM0.15m
00:21AM0.23m
12:39PM0.15m
1:14AM0.26m
1:32PM0.22m
2:06AM0.31m
2:25PM0.33m
2:59AM0.39m
3:20PM0.47m
3:53AM0.47m
4:17PM0.60m
4:46AM0.55m
5:15PM0.70m
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
cloud
light rain
light rain
part cloud
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:56
7:56
7:54
7:54
7:54
7:52
7:52
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:12
5:13
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
 mm
2
2
Temp °C
14
10
9
9
9
11
8
10
13
10
10
12
9
8
7
8
8
9
9
10
12
Feels °C
11
8
6
6
6
9
5
7
11
9
7
10
8
6
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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