Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 23 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
9.9°C
0.8° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 23 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 24 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 13s period, SSE swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 7s period, NE swell with 285 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 13s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.6m 7s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 17s period and expected on Thursday (Aug 27) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3AM (Mon 24th Aug)1.5ft (0.4m) 13s
Best Surf 3AM (Mon 24th Aug)1.5ft (0.4m) 13s
Most Powerful 9AM (Fri 28th Aug)5ft (1.6m) 7s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Right, I’ve had a good look over the next 16 days for Taylors Mistake and, to be honest, it’s a pretty quiet stretch. The water temp is sitting right around average for the time of year at 50°, so nothing out of the ordinary there. The ocean is mostly taking a breather, with only a couple of moments that might be worth a quick paddle.

Starting off, Sunday the 23rd is a write-off – we’ve got a fresh offshore breeze swinging from the WNW at 22 mph, but the swell is tiny at 1 ft from the NE with a weak combined energy (38). It’s clean, sure, but there’s just nothing to ride. Monday the 24th morning offers a window of glassy conditions with the wind down to 3 mph from the NW, but the swell is a sad 1.0 ft from the SSE. It’s surfable but ordinary – the energy is weak (57).

The first real chance of anything decent comes on Thursday the 27th. The morning is a mess with onshore rain, but by the afternoon, a 4 ft swell from the ENE pops up with moderate combined energy (259). The issue is the period is a tiny 6 seconds – short period windswell – and the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph, making it lumpy. It’s poor surf conditions, but it’s the closest we get to a bump in size all week.

Friday the 28th morning sees the biggest swell of the whole outlook: 5 ft from the NE with a period of 7 seconds and combined energy climbing to 423, which is a moderate-to-strong push for this spot. However, the wind is a gentle cross-shore from the NNE at 9 mph, creating slight cross-chop. It’s marginal – the shape won’t be great due to that short period, and it’s board-short territory for anyone with experience. Afternoon cleaner with a 3 ft swell from the ENE, but it’s ordinary still.

After that, it drops right off. From the 29th of August all the way through to the 7th of September, we are looking at surf that barely cracks 2 ft. The combined energy figures are mostly in the double digits – really weak. There’s a brief moment on the 1st of September morning where a long-period 17-second swell from the SSE pushes the energy to 168 (moderate), but the swell height is only 2 ft, so it’s more of a long-period push than a proper wave. Clean with a moderate cross-off breeze, but not worth the drive.

The standout, if you can call it that, is Friday the 28th morning. It’s the only time the swell height gets over 5 ft, with that moderate combined energy of 423. It’s a NE swell, which doesn't match the ideal ENE direction for Taylors, and with a short 7-second period, it’s going to be a bit sectiony. But if you’re an experienced surfer and you’re desperate for a push, that’s your window. Crowds are “sometimes” at Taylors, so you might have company. For beginners, the 5 ft height with those conditions is too much.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, it’s mostly a waiting game. The setup is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer on those bigger, wind-affected days. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a quiet period.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 6°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WNW on Sun afternoon, calm by Sun night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Moderate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Wed night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu night, min 8°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the ENE on Thu morning, calm by Fri night).

Sun
23
Monday
24
Tuesday
25
Wednesday
26
Thursday
27
Friday
28
Saturday
29
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
NE
9
0.3
SSE
11
0.3
SSE
14
0.2
SSE
14
0.3
ESE
14
0.2
E
14
0.2
E
14
0.3
ESE
14
0.2
E
13
0.3
ESE
13
0.7
ESE
17
0.5
SSE
18
1.3
ENE
6
1.3
ENE
7
1.6
NE
7
1
ENE
8
0.5
ENE
7
0.4
ENE
7
0.7
ENE
6
0.5
ENE
5
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
23
23
40
18
40
15
15
38
14
34
267
174
131
161
285
150
27
17
37
15
Wind (km/h)
35
WNW
10
WSW
5
NW
10
NNW
10
NNW
30
NNW
25
NW
5
ESE
10
E
10
ESE
15
ESE
25
E
30
ENE
25
NE
15
NNE
15
SW
5
NE
10
SSW
15
NE
15
NNW
Wind State
off
off
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
1:12AM2.05m
1:40PM2.16m
2:01AM2.04m
2:27PM2.16m
2:47AM2.06m
3:12PM2.17m
3:31AM2.08m
3:54PM2.19m
4:13AM2.11m
4:35PM2.22m
4:55AM2.13m
5:15PM2.25m
Low Tide
7:12PM0.80m
7:14AM0.76m
7:56PM0.77m
8:01AM0.72m
8:39PM0.73m
8:50AM0.66m
9:23PM0.67m
9:39AM0.60m
10:07PM0.61m
10:24AM0.54m
10:51PM0.55m
11:06AM0.50m
11:34PM0.51m
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
mod rain
light rain
light rain
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:09
7:07
7:05
7:05
7:03
7:01
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:51
5:52
5:53
5:54
5:55
5:57
5:58
 mm
8
4
2
1
Temp °C
14
9
12
15
14
17
16
12
9
10
9
9
10
15
15
15
10
12
11
11
Feels °C
5
4
10
11
8
10
10
10
6
7
5
2
4
9
12
12
9
10
7
4
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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