
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 17s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 17s period, SSE swell with 807 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 13 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 14s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.2m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 17s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Thu 13th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next 16 days at Taylors Mistake.
Right off the bat, don’t get too excited. The first week and a half is pretty lackluster, with a lot of poor surf conditions and hardly anything worth paddling out for. There’s a real dry spell from the 12th of August right through until the 18th. The swell is small, messy, and the winds are mostly cross-onshore, making for lumpy, ordinary waves. The best of that early period is Thursday afternoon, the 13th, when the wind goes glassy and the swell drops to 3ft from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds, giving you surfable but very ordinary waves. It’s small and inconsistent, but at least it’s clean.
Then we hit a standout on Wednesday the 19th of August. The morning brings a pulse of 3ft swell from the SE with a long period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy hits 383 (moderate wave energy). The wind is light, coming from the WSW, which is offshore for Taylors Mistake, so the waves will be clean and lined up. This is a groundswell, so expect longer waits between sets, but the shape should be good, especially for a point break like this. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, but with that period and size, it’s still manageable for most. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so expect a few locals out. Water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.
After that, the rest of the run into late August is pretty flat again, with a few small clean mornings but nothing that’ll get your heart racing. The 25th of August has a moderate offshore wind and a 2ft swell from the E with a 17-second period, giving you clean, long-period lines, but it’s tiny. A kite surfer might find more to play with on those days than a paddle surfer.
So, the clear pick of the 16 days is the morning of Wednesday the 19th of August. It’s not a massive swell, but the conditions are right, and it’s the only real window of quality. The rest is a waiting game.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NE on Tue night, calm by Thu afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 10°C on Fri night, min 5°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 12 | Thursday 13 | Friday 14 | Saturday 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 5 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 9 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
69 | 175 | 310 | 785 | 515 | 133 | 71 | 49 | 40 | 39 | 39 | 38 | 66 | 47 | 34 | 16 | 24 | 21 | 20 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 3:21AM2.39m | 3:46PM2.53m | 4:13AM2.40m | 4:40PM2.52m | 5:06AM2.39m | 5:33PM2.48m | 6:01AM2.37m | 6:26PM2.43m | 6:59AM2.34m | 7:20PM2.37m | 7:55AM2.33m | 8:16PM2.30m | |||||||
Low Tide | 9:09PM0.29m | 9:31AM0.23m | 10:03PM0.26m | 10:27AM0.18m | 10:59PM0.26m | 11:21AM0.17m | 11:53PM0.27m | 12:13PM0.22m | 00:46AM0.30m | 1:05PM0.31m | 1:36AM0.36m | 1:58PM0.43m | 2:26AM0.44m | ||||||
— | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Feels °C | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 10 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 9 | SE 7 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 |
5 | 4 | 4 | 244 | 171 | 133 | 71 | 49 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 38 | 66 | 47 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 16 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | S 16 | S 20 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 14 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | SE 6 | SE 6 | E 12 | ESE 5 | ENE 9 | ESE 4 | ESE 5 |
28 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 3 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 21 | S 15 | SE 9 | ESE 14 | — | E 10 | E 16 | ESE 14 | S 18 | S 18 | S 16 | S 18 | S 16 | S 18 | E 8 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 |
5 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | — | 2 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 20 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 5 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | — | — | — | SW 3 | — | — | S 3 | SW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
69 | 175 | 310 | 785 | 515 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 32 | 63 | 181 | 32 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.











