Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 11 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
9.2° C
0.1° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 11 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 13 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period, NE swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 13 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period, NE swell with 767 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 13 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period with NE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 14s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 2.4m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 13) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 7s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)12PM (Thu 13th Aug)6ft (1.9m) 8s
Best Surf12PM (Thu 13th Aug)6ft (1.9m) 8s
Most Powerful 3AM (Thu 13th Aug)8ft (2.4m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – for the next couple of weeks, Taylors Mistake is in a bit of a funk. The water’s sitting right around average for this time of year at 49°, so nothing weird there, but the swell just isn’t cooperating. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak waves and messy wind, so don’t get your hopes up for anything epic.

We kick off on Tuesday the 11th with a tiny 0.7m (2ft) SE swell, period hanging around 8 seconds, and a cross-on breeze from the ENE at 3 mph. It’s poor, real poor – combined energy is just 98, barely a whisper. That afternoon, it drops even further to 0.6m (2ft) with stronger onshore wind. Not worth a paddle.

Wednesday the 12th sees a bit more size, 1.4m to 1.5m (5ft to 5ft) from the ENE, but the period is a short 7 seconds and the onshore wind is pumping at 16 to 19 mph. Combined energy climbs to 209 and 253, but it’s lumpy and choppy. This is more of a kitesurfing setup than a surfer’s dream.

Thursday the 13th is the best we’ve got in this whole run, and it’s still only marginal. The morning brings a 2.0m (7ft) ENE swell with an 8-second period and light onshore wind at 6 mph. Combined energy hits 690 – moderate wave energy, finally some push. It’s okay for the experienced crew, but the wind is onshore, so it won’t be pretty. Afternoon drops to 1.6m (5ft) and 451 energy, still marginal.

Friday the 14th cleans up a bit. Morning shows 0.8m (3ft) from the E, 7 seconds, and a light cross-off breeze from the SW at 6 mph – clean but ordinary. The afternoon gets glassy with no wind, and the swell ticks up slightly to 0.7m (2ft) with 109 combined energy. Surfable, but tiny.

From Saturday the 15th all the way through to Monday the 17th, it’s a wasteland. Swell stays below 0.6m (2ft), energy is in the 30s to 100s, and winds are mostly cross-off or offshore, but there’s just no wave to work with. Clean conditions, but flat.

Tuesday the 18th, we see a little 0.4m (1ft) ENE swell with a gentle offshore from the WSW at 9 mph. Clean, but again, tiny. Combined energy is only 49.

Then something interesting pops up on Wednesday the 19th – a long-period groundswell starts showing. We’ve got 0.5m (2ft) from the SSE with a whopping 18-second period and light offshore wind from the W at 3 mph. Combined energy is 196. That afternoon goes glassy with a 0.4m (1ft) SSE swell at 16 seconds and 111 energy. This is promising for the point breaks and reefs, but at Taylors Mistake, that long period might make it break a bit straight. Still, clear skies and glassy conditions – it’s a tease.

Thursday the 20th keeps that glassy feel with a 0.3m (1.0ft) SSE swell at 18 seconds in the morning (108 energy) and 0.4m (1ft) SE at 12 seconds in the afternoon (64 energy). Clean, but small.

Friday the 21st through Sunday the 23rd is back to tiny junk – 0.2m to 0.4m (0.7ft to 1ft), short periods, poor conditions. Not a sniff.

Monday the 24th brings a new pulse: 0.5m (2ft) ESE at 16 seconds with a cross-off SW wind at 9 mph – combined energy jumps to 221. Then Tuesday the 25th sees 0.7m (2ft) ESE at 15 seconds, 252 energy, but with stronger cross-off wind. By Wednesday the 26th, we get a gentle offshore from the WSW at 9 mph with a 0.5m (2ft) ESE swell at 15 seconds and 148 energy. Clean again, but still small.

Honestly, if you’re set on Taylors Mistake, your best shot is Thursday the 13th morning for the biggest swell of the run (2.0m / 7ft), but that onshore wind is a downer. The long-period glassy days around the 19th and 20th are beautiful conditions, but you’ll be hunting for any ripple. It’s a tough outlook – the swell just isn’t lining up with the wind.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 8°C on Tue morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NE on Tue night, calm by Thu morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 5°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
11
Wednesday
12
Thursday
13
Friday
14
Saturday
15
Sunday
16
Monday
17
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
SE
8
0.6
ESE
8
1.1
ENE
5
1.4
ENE
7
1.5
ENE
7
1.4
ENE
8
2
ENE
8
1.6
ENE
8
0.9
ENE
8
0.8
E
7
0.7
E
7
0.7
E
7
0.6
E
7
0.6
E
7
0.5
E
8
0.4
ENE
8
0.3
ENE
9
0.5
ESE
8
0.6
E
9
0.6
E
9
0.5
E
9
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
70
42
72
171
249
244
489
294
96
70
52
54
37
39
33
22
16
32
62
58
45
Wind (km/h)
5
ENE
15
E
30
NE
30
NE
30
ENE
10
ENE
10
ENE
5
ENE
10
SW
10
SW
0
ENE
5
ESE
10
SW
15
SW
15
SW
15
SW
20
SSW
10
WSW
10
WSW
15
SW
10
W
Wind State
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
off
High Tide
2:51PM2.51m
3:21AM2.39m
3:46PM2.53m
4:13AM2.40m
4:40PM2.52m
5:06AM2.39m
5:33PM2.48m
6:01AM2.37m
6:26PM2.43m
6:59AM2.34m
7:20PM2.37m
7:55AM2.33m
8:16PM2.30m
Low Tide
9:09PM0.29m
9:31AM0.23m
10:03PM0.26m
10:27AM0.18m
10:59PM0.26m
11:21AM0.17m
11:53PM0.27m
12:13PM0.22m
00:46AM0.30m
1:05PM0.31m
1:36AM0.36m
1:58PM0.43m
2:26AM0.44m
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:28
7:28
7:26
7:24
7:24
7:22
7:20
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:37
5:38
5:40
5:42
5:43
5:44
5:45
 mm
2
1
Temp °C
9
9
10
10
10
11
14
14
12
13
14
10
9
9
6
8
8
6
8
9
9
Feels °C
6
5
5
4
4
9
13
12
10
11
13
8
6
5
1
3
2
2
3
4
5
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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