Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 15 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
9.9° C
0.5° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 17s period, E swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, E swell with 520 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 16s period with E swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 5s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 16) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9AM (Thu 16th Jul)1ft (0.3m) 16s
Best Surf12AM (Fri 17th Jul)2.5ft (0.7m) 17s
Most Powerful 3PM (Fri 17th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – the next couple of weeks at Taylors Mistake are looking pretty grim for the most part. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak surf ahead, with only a couple of windows where it might be worth paddling out. Let’s break it down.

The first real surf worth mentioning doesn’t kick in until Friday the 17th of July. That’s four days of flat, poor conditions from now through Thursday. Don’t even bother waxing up until then.
On Friday morning we’ve got a clean 3ft easterly groundswell rolling in with a period of 17 seconds – that’s a long one, meaning nice shaped waves but longer lulls between sets. The wind is glassy, dead calm, so it’ll be clean as a whistle. The combined energy is pumping at 490 (moderate wave energy), and it’s a beginner-friendly break, so this is your best bet. Friday afternoon keeps it going with 3ft from the east, still glassy, and energy up to 520.
Saturday the 18th is also a standout. Morning brings 3ft easterly swell with a 15-second period, offshore wind from the WSW, and clean conditions. The energy is 625 – that’s solid moderate energy, and it’ll feel punchy for a 3ft wave. The swell direction from the east is bang on what Taylors likes (ENE optimum). Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so get in early. Water temp is around 50°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so don’t expect a warm one.

After Saturday, the quality drops off fast. Sunday the 19th sees smaller 2ft east swell, glassy and clean, but it’s weaker (energy 230) and the wave comment says “surfable but very ordinary.” Monday the 20th is a bit weird – a tiny 1ft SSE groundswell from the morning, but the afternoon picks up a 2ft SSE swell with an 18-second period, pushing energy to 415. Problem is the wind goes cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy.

From Tuesday the 21st right through to the end of the month, it’s pretty much a write-off. Waves drop below 2ft most days, energy is weak (often under 100), and the wind is a mixed bag of onshore, cross, or cross-off. There’s a brief flicker on Saturday the 25th with a 2ft ESE swell and 15-second period, energy 166, but it’s only a morning thing and the conditions are just “ordinary.” The rest is tiny, poor, or blown out.

So, to sum it up: your one true window is Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th. That’s the pick of the 16 days. After that, you’re looking at a long run of small, weak surf until the end of the month. It’s not great, but it’s not unusual for this area – sometimes you get a blank run. Keep an eye on the forecasts, things can change.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed afternoon, min 6°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 11°C on Sat afternoon, min 7°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light.

Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
1
0
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
E
12
0.2
E
12
0.2
E
13
0.3
E
16
0.4
E
16
0.7
E
17
0.9
E
17
1
E
16
1
E
15
1
E
15
0.9
ESE
14
0.8
ESE
14
0.7
E
14
0.6
E
13
0.4
SSE
18
0.4
SSE
17
0.6
SSE
18
0.4
SE
17
0.3
ESE
11
0.3
ESE
11
0.2
SSE
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
12
11
14
46
83
265
465
520
484
447
341
261
179
125
109
113
246
79
25
24
20
Wind (km/h)
5
WNW
5
N
5
NW
10
SSW
5
NE
5
ESE
5
NW
5
ENE
10
NE
10
WSW
20
SSW
5
SW
0
NW
5
NE
0
WNW
5
NE
10
ENE
5
NE
5
NNW
10
ENE
10
W
Wind State
off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
cross-on
glassy
glassy
glassy
cross-on
off
cross-off
glassy
glassy
glassy
glassy
glassy
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
on
off
High Tide
5:05PM2.63m
5:33AM2.46m
6:00PM2.60m
6:29AM2.43m
6:54PM2.53m
7:25AM2.39m
7:50PM2.45m
8:22AM2.35m
8:46PM2.36m
9:16AM2.31m
9:41PM2.29m
10:09AM2.28m
10:34PM2.23m
Low Tide
10:50AM0.19m
11:25PM0.22m
11:46AM0.15m
00:21AM0.23m
12:39PM0.15m
1:14AM0.26m
1:32PM0.22m
2:06AM0.31m
2:25PM0.33m
2:59AM0.39m
3:20PM0.47m
3:53AM0.47m
4:17PM0.60m
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:56
7:56
7:56
7:54
7:54
7:54
7:52
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:10
5:12
5:13
5:14
5:15
5:15
5:16
 mm
Temp °C
12
16
12
9
9
9
9
10
8
10
11
8
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
Feels °C
10
14
9
7
6
7
7
7
5
6
5
6
7
7
6
5
5
5
6
6
7
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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