Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – for the next couple of weeks, Taylors Mistake is in a bit of a funk. The water’s sitting right around average for this time of year at 49°, so nothing weird there, but the swell just isn’t cooperating. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak waves and messy wind, so don’t get your hopes up for anything epic.

We kick off on Tuesday the 11th with a tiny 0.7m (2ft) SE swell, period hanging around 8 seconds, and a cross-on breeze from the ENE at 3 mph. It’s poor, real poor – combined energy is just 98, barely a whisper. That afternoon, it drops even further to 0.6m (2ft) with stronger onshore wind. Not worth a paddle.

Wednesday the 12th sees a bit more size, 1.4m to 1.5m (5ft to 5ft) from the ENE, but the period is a short 7 seconds and the onshore wind is pumping at 16 to 19 mph. Combined energy climbs to 209 and 253, but it’s lumpy and choppy. This is more of a kitesurfing setup than a surfer’s dream.

Thursday the 13th is the best we’ve got in this whole run, and it’s still only marginal. The morning brings a 2.0m (7ft) ENE swell with an 8-second period and light onshore wind at 6 mph. Combined energy hits 690 – moderate wave energy, finally some push. It’s okay for the experienced crew, but the wind is onshore, so it won’t be pretty. Afternoon drops to 1.6m (5ft) and 451 energy, still marginal.

Friday the 14th cleans up a bit. Morning shows 0.8m (3ft) from the E, 7 seconds, and a light cross-off breeze from the SW at 6 mph – clean but ordinary. The afternoon gets glassy with no wind, and the swell ticks up slightly to 0.7m (2ft) with 109 combined energy. Surfable, but tiny.

From Saturday the 15th all the way through to Monday the 17th, it’s a wasteland. Swell stays below 0.6m (2ft), energy is in the 30s to 100s, and winds are mostly cross-off or offshore, but there’s just no wave to work with. Clean conditions, but flat.

Tuesday the 18th, we see a little 0.4m (1ft) ENE swell with a gentle offshore from the WSW at 9 mph. Clean, but again, tiny. Combined energy is only 49.

Then something interesting pops up on Wednesday the 19th – a long-period groundswell starts showing. We’ve got 0.5m (2ft) from the SSE with a whopping 18-second period and light offshore wind from the W at 3 mph. Combined energy is 196. That afternoon goes glassy with a 0.4m (1ft) SSE swell at 16 seconds and 111 energy. This is promising for the point breaks and reefs, but at Taylors Mistake, that long period might make it break a bit straight. Still, clear skies and glassy conditions – it’s a tease.

Thursday the 20th keeps that glassy feel with a 0.3m (1.0ft) SSE swell at 18 seconds in the morning (108 energy) and 0.4m (1ft) SE at 12 seconds in the afternoon (64 energy). Clean, but small.

Friday the 21st through Sunday the 23rd is back to tiny junk – 0.2m to 0.4m (0.7ft to 1ft), short periods, poor conditions. Not a sniff.

Monday the 24th brings a new pulse: 0.5m (2ft) ESE at 16 seconds with a cross-off SW wind at 9 mph – combined energy jumps to 221. Then Tuesday the 25th sees 0.7m (2ft) ESE at 15 seconds, 252 energy, but with stronger cross-off wind. By Wednesday the 26th, we get a gentle offshore from the WSW at 9 mph with a 0.5m (2ft) ESE swell at 15 seconds and 148 energy. Clean again, but still small.

Honestly, if you’re set on Taylors Mistake, your best shot is Thursday the 13th morning for the biggest swell of the run (2.0m / 7ft), but that onshore wind is a downer. The long-period glassy days around the 19th and 20th are beautiful conditions, but you’ll be hunting for any ripple. It’s a tough outlook – the swell just isn’t lining up with the wind.

Rusty.

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