Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 22 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 27 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 13s period, ESE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 14s period, E swell with 537 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 24 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 9s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.2m 14s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 8s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 2ft (0.6m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Wed 29th Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next 16 days at Taylors Mistake.
To be straight with you, the first few days are a real struggle. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd are basically flat, with tiny wind swell and next to no energy. Friday the 24th is a write-off too – a strong 25 mph cross-onshore wind and only 4 ft of messy, short-period swell. You’re better off staying home or working on your pop-up.
Things start to change from Sunday the 26th. The ocean comes alive with a slow, building groundswell from the east. The combined energy ramps up from 150 (moderate) on Sunday morning to 210 (moderate) by Monday morning. It’s still small, just 2 ft to 2 ft, but it’s clean with offshore and light winds. This is where the wait pays off.
The standout period arrives on Monday the 27th afternoon, through Tuesday the 28th morning. Monday afternoon, the wind goes glassy, the swell pushes to 3 ft from the east-southeast with a 13-second period, and the combined energy hits 354 (moderate). But Tuesday morning the 28th is the real gem: 4 ft of east swell, 14-second period, 539 combined energy (moderate), and glassy offshore west wind. That’s clean, lined-up, and fun. Water temp is sitting at 50°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so suit up properly.
From Wednesday the 29th, it gets messy again with onshore winds and choppy conditions, but we get another shot on Saturday the 1st of August. The afternoon session looks well worth it: 5 ft of southeast swell, 14-second period, and a massive 758 combined energy (strong). Winds are light cross-off and clean. That’s the best wave of the whole forecast. Sunday the 2nd holds clean, glassy 3-4 ft south-east swell, perfect for a long session.
After that, the energy drops off and the winds turn cross-onshore, so the run fizzles out through the first week of August. The last few days from the 4th to the 6th are small, weak, and just ordinary.
Overall, the best bets are Tuesday the 28th morning and Saturday the 1st afternoon. Keep your eyes on those windows.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 5°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed morning, fresh winds from the SW by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Mon afternoon, min 3°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Sat morning, calm by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 11 | SE 12 | NE 4 | ENE 5 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | NE 8 | NE 7 | ESE 13 | ESE 18 | E 16 | E 15 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | ESE 13 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 9 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 71 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 61 | 132 | 112 | 148 | 128 | 123 | 229 | 503 | 496 | 489 | 449 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | glassy | glassy | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 11:00AM2.26m | 11:24PM2.18m | 11:52AM2.24m | 00:13AM2.14m | 12:42PM2.23m | 1:02AM2.11m | 1:30PM2.22m | 1:51AM2.09m | 2:18PM2.22m | 2:39AM2.08m | 3:03PM2.21m | 3:23AM2.08m | 3:47PM2.20m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:15PM0.70m | 5:37AM0.63m | 6:12PM0.76m | 6:24AM0.69m | 7:05PM0.79m | 7:08AM0.73m | 7:52PM0.79m | 7:52AM0.75m | 8:36PM0.78m | 8:38AM0.74m | 9:18PM0.76m | 9:26AM0.70m | 10:00PM0.73m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | |  | | |
 | 7:52 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:48 | — | — | 7:48 | — | — | 7:47 | — | — |
 | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
Feels °C | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 7 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 5 | E 11 | — | NE 4 | ENE 5 | E 11 | E 12 | NE 5 | NE 7 | ENE 7 | ESE 18 | E 16 | E 15 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | ESE 13 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 |
| kJ | 3 | 2 | — | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 9 | 61 | 132 | 112 | 148 | 128 | 123 | 229 | 503 | 496 | 489 | 449 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | NE 4 | E 11 | E 12 | E 12 | S 10 | S 9 | NE 8 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | ENE 8 | SE 8 | SE 7 | SE 8 | SE 8 | E 16 | E 16 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | WSW 9 |
| kJ | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 29 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 78 | 125 | 57 | 43 | 29 | 16 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 12 | S 14 | E 13 | — | E 19 | ESE 4 | ENE 11 | ENE 11 | E 11 | — | SE 8 | S 13 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | — |
| kJ | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | — | 7 | 2 | 25 | 24 | 9 | — | 9 | 3 | 40 | 20 | 19 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | ENE 2 | NE 4 | N 3 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | NW 3 | N 3 | SW 4 | SSW 4 | SW 3 | W 3 | — | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | — | SSE 9 |
| kJ | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 71 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 24 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 62 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 22 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 255 | 162 | 4 | 22 | 151 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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