Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 07 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
11.1°C
1.8° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 6 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 9s period, ENE swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 12 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 17s period, SSE swell with 313 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 9s period with ENE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 3s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.8m 17s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.0m 12s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 12) at 12PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Wed 9th Sep)2ft (0.6m) 9s
Best Surf 6AM (Wed 9th Sep)2ft (0.6m) 9s
Most Powerful 3PM (Sat 12th Sep)2.5ft (0.8m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty. Look, I’ve scanned the charts for this stretch and I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days are a real struggle. There’s no standout session, no must-paddle moment. The whole period is a flat, weak mess, and you’ll be waiting a long time for anything rideable. We’ve got a gap of nearly a week of zero surf on offer before we even see a hint of a wave, and even then it’s ordinary.

Let’s start with the only break we’ve got to work with: Taylors Mistake. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, fairly exposed, and fairly consistent. The water is sitting at 52°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – about 3°F above average, so you’ll notice it’s a bit more pleasant on the skin.

Right now, Monday September 7th is a write-off. Cloudy, glassy wind, but the swell is tiny at 3 ft from the ESE with a short period of 5 seconds – combined energy is a weak 49. That’s barely a ripple. Monday afternoon is even worse at 1 ft. Tuesday is the same story – 2 ft glassy morning, but the period is just 4 seconds and energy is 14. We’re not even getting started.

Wednesday September 9th sees a tiny bump: 2 ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds in the morning, but the wind is cross-onshore and the energy is still only 84. By afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph cross-onshore, and the swell hits 4 ft with moderate energy of 190, but it’s choppy and messy. Not worth it.

Thursday through to Sunday September 13th is all tiny – 2 ft down to 0.3 ft – with poor conditions. Saturday September 12th morning shows a glimmer: 2 ft from the SSE with a 12-second period, offshore wind from the west, and clean conditions. Energy is 124 – moderate. But it’s still small and the vibe is “surfable waves but very ordinary.” That’s the best we’ve got for the first week, and it’s not saying much.

Sunday September 13th afternoon goes glassy with 1 ft from the SSE, period 13 seconds, energy 74 – clean but tiny. Still, ordinary.

We then hit another dry spell. Monday September 14th to Tuesday September 15th is all under 1.0 ft with weak energy. Wednesday September 16th morning pops up with 2 ft from the NE, period 9 seconds, offshore wind from the WNW, clean, energy 71 – again, surfable but ordinary. Then it drops again.

The second week keeps the same sad tune. Thursday September 17th through Sunday September 20th is all 0.7 ft to 1 ft – tiny, weak, and often wind-affected. The best of this poor run is Monday September 21st: 1 ft from the SSE with a 17-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell, but it’s only ankle to knee-high at best. The energy is moderate at 121, and the wind is light and cross-offshore, keeping it clean. Still, this is a long-period swell at a beach break, which means it’ll break straight and be tricky. It’s a tease.

Tuesday September 22nd morning is similar – 1 ft, 11-second period, clean, energy 56 – but by afternoon the onshore wind kicks in and it’s gone.

Honestly, there’s no standout here. The whole 16 days is a flat spell with very weak combined energy – most values are under 100, a few hit low triple digits. If you’re a beginner, Taylors Mistake might give you a few tiny, clean waves on Saturday September 12th morning or Monday September 21st, but don’t expect much. The swells are never over 4 ft, so it’s never too big. The wind is often light or offshore, which keeps the surface clean, but there’s just no power.

For kite surfers, the setups are too small and weak to even be interesting. Just a flat, blank run. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the board at home.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 10°C on Wed afternoon, min 5°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 11°C on Fri afternoon, min 3°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, strong winds from the SW by Sat afternoon).

Monday
7
Tuesday
8
Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
ESE
5
0.4
E
5
0.4
ESE
5
0.6
ENE
4
0.5
ENE
4
0.5
ENE
8
0.7
ENE
9
1.1
ENE
9
0.9
ENE
8
0.6
ENE
8
0.4
ENE
8
0.3
E
8
0.2
E
8
0.1
E
7
0.7
S
4
0.5
SSE
12
0.8
SSE
17
0.7
SSE
16
0.3
SSE
15
0.4
SSE
13
0.3
SSE
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
33
8
9
12
10
39
80
186
101
50
21
10
4
1
17
79
313
232
43
70
34
Wind (km/h)
5
SW
10
ENE
20
NE
5
NNW
5
ENE
10
WSW
10
NE
25
ENE
10
NW
10
SSE
15
SSW
15
WSW
10
NNE
5
SSE
0
SSW
10
W
40
SW
15
WSW
15
NNE
0
NNW
5
NNE
Wind State
glassy
on
cross-on
glassy
on
off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross
cross-off
off
cross
glassy
glassy
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
glassy
glassy
High Tide
12:43PM2.38m
1:11AM2.28m
1:38PM2.39m
2:05AM2.30m
2:31PM2.40m
2:57AM2.31m
3:23PM2.40m
3:48AM2.32m
4:15PM2.39m
4:41AM2.32m
5:07PM2.36m
5:37AM2.32m
6:00PM2.33m
Low Tide
7:03PM0.41m
7:19AM0.35m
7:54PM0.36m
8:14AM0.31m
8:45PM0.33m
9:10AM0.29m
9:38PM0.33m
10:05AM0.28m
10:32PM0.34m
10:58AM0.30m
11:26PM0.36m
11:50AM0.36m
00:17AM0.40m
cloud
clear
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
cloud
light rain
light rain
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:46
6:43
6:41
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:07
6:08
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
6:15
 mm
3
2
3
1
Temp °C
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
10
9
7
6
4
8
11
8
8
9
7
9
12
10
Feels °C
6
5
2
5
7
6
4
4
7
5
2
-1
5
8
6
0
-1
1
7
10
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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