Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 24 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
9.6° C
0.2° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 24 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 27 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 13s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 14s period, E swell with 388 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 25 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 18s period with ESE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 18s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.7m 11s period and expected on Friday (Jul 31) at 3PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3PM (Sat 25th Jul)1ft (0.3m) 18s
Best Surf 3AM (Mon 27th Jul)2.5ft (0.8m) 13s
Most Powerful12PM (Tue 28th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break down the next 16 days at Taylors Mistake. The first few days are flat and ugly, but there’s a window of clean, fun waves starting Monday, and a couple of mornings that are real beauties.

Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th of July – nothing doing. Tiny, messy swell, cross-shore wind, poor conditions. Don’t even bother. Sunday the 26th shows a little pulse: 2ft swell from the east at 15 seconds, light cross-off wind, moderate energy (208). Surfable, but not exciting. Monday morning the 27th is where it picks up: 3ft east-southeast swell at 13 seconds, offshore wind from the west-southwest at 3 mph, and solid energy (365). The water temp is 49° – about average for this time of year. That’s a clean session with some shape. Monday afternoon goes glassy with a light north wind, still 3ft – a nice one.

Tuesday the 28th morning is a standout: 3ft east swell, 13 seconds, glassy with a light north-northeast breeze, and strong energy (345). That’s a beauty – clean, consistent, and just right for a beginner spot. Wednesday the 29th morning is just as good: 3ft east swell, glassy, moderate energy (302). The afternoon stays glassy with 3ft. These are the best of the first week.

Then a dry spell from Thursday the 30th through Tuesday the 5th of August. Swell drops to 1ft-2ft, winds turn messy, and energy is weak. That’s a five-day stretch of poor surf – not worth a paddle.

But Wednesday the 6th of August morning brings a surprise: 4ft from the east-northeast, 7 seconds, glassy, and strong energy (293). Short-period windswell, but glassy makes it fun. Thursday the 7th of August is the real prize: 4ft from the east-northeast, 12 seconds – that’s a groundswell with good period – glassy all day, and strong energy (494). That’s a morning to clear your schedule. The direction is spot on for Taylors (ENE). Crowds are “sometimes,” so you might have company, but it’s worth it.

Then Saturday the 8th of August morning shows a big spike: 8ft from the east-northeast, 12 seconds, with a light cross-onshore wind and massive energy (2009). That’s expert-only territory – over 8ft, it’s for the brave. The afternoon drops to 4ft but turns onshore, so no good.

Best on offer: Tuesday the 28th of July morning and Thursday the 7th of August morning. Both are glassy, clean, and lined up. The long period on the 7th might make it break a bit straight at the beach, but it’s a cracker.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 2°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 7°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Fri
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
NE
8
0.6
ENE
8
0.4
ENE
7
0.3
ESE
18
0.5
E
16
0.6
E
15
0.6
E
14
0.7
E
13
0.8
ESE
13
0.8
E
13
0.9
E
13
1
E
13
1
E
14
1
E
13
0.9
E
13
0.8
E
13
0.7
E
12
0.6
E
12
0.5
E
12
0.5
E
12
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
102
39
19
61
132
157
148
176
195
219
280
345
383
352
289
219
153
106
72
71
Wind (km/h)
15
NNE
10
WSW
20
SW
15
SW
10
SW
10
WSW
15
SW
5
WSW
5
W
5
NNW
5
NNE
5
NNE
10
E
10
ENE
5
NW
5
ENE
5
NNW
25
N
20
NNE
15
SSW
Wind State
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
glassy
glassy
glassy
on
on
glassy
glassy
glassy
cross
cross-on
cross-off
High Tide
1:02AM2.11m
1:30PM2.22m
1:51AM2.09m
2:18PM2.22m
2:39AM2.08m
3:03PM2.21m
3:23AM2.08m
3:47PM2.20m
4:05AM2.07m
4:29PM2.19m
4:46AM2.07m
5:09PM2.19m
Low Tide
7:05PM0.79m
7:08AM0.73m
7:52PM0.79m
7:52AM0.75m
8:36PM0.78m
8:38AM0.74m
9:18PM0.76m
9:26AM0.70m
10:00PM0.73m
10:12AM0.65m
10:43PM0.68m
10:56AM0.59m
11:27PM0.62m
part cloud
rain showers
mod rain
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:50
7:48
7:48
7:47
7:46
7:43
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:20
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:23
5:24
5:25
 mm
1
6
1
Temp °C
14
10
6
6
4
6
8
5
7
8
7
8
9
9
9
10
9
14
14
11
Feels °C
10
6
1
1
0
2
3
2
4
5
4
5
5
6
7
8
7
7
9
8
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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