Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 14s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period, SE swell with 465 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 9s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.5m 15s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 2ft (0.6m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Imperial Version
Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle out at Taylors Mistake. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf and mostly ordinary conditions, so don't go getting your hopes up too high.
The water is sitting at 50°F, which is about 2°F warmer than average for this time of year, so it’s nothing too wild, just a touch on the mild side.
The first real chance to get wet is on Sunday the 16th of August in the afternoon. It’s small, with a 2ft swell from the east, and the combined energy is weak at 84. The wind is a cross-off from the SSW at 12 mph, so it’ll be clean but the waves are just poor to be honest. Not much to write home about.
Monday the 17th is similar, with a bit more push in the morning – 2ft from the east, but again, the energy is weak (101), and the conditions are just "ordinary". The wind is light offshore from the WSW at 6 mph, which is nice, but it’s not enough to save the day.
The best of a very average bunch looks to be Wednesday the 19th of August in the morning. We’ve got a 1ft swell from the SSE, but the period jumps to 15 seconds, so it’s a long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate at 192, and it’s clean with a light cross-off breeze from the WSW. It’s still small, but that long period will give it a bit more shape and punch. It’s not a standout, but it’s the best we’ve got in the first week.
After that, we enter a proper dead zone. From Thursday the 20th right through to Sunday the 30th of August, it’s mostly tiny waves – 0.7ft to 1ft – with weak energy, often glassy or light offshore, but just not enough swell to ride. There’s a bit of a pulse on Thursday the 27th of August in the morning, with a 2ft swell from the SSE and moderate energy (165), but the period is 17 seconds, which is very long. That’s a groundswell that might break too straight at a beach break like Taylors Mistake, so it’s one for the experts only. The wind is a clean cross-off, but it’s still a gamble.
The end of the run, on Monday the 31st of August, is flat and choppy. Honestly, this stretch is looking more like a good time to clean the wax off your board than to actually surf. If you’re desperate, the Wednesday the 19th morning is your best bet, but keep your expectations in check.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 10°C on Mon afternoon, min 4°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Sun night, fresh winds from the SW by Tue morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 7°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 14 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 9 | SSE 12 | SE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | SE 13 | E 15 | E 14 | N 4 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 46 | 43 | 78 | 61 | 143 | 49 | 34 | 412 | 88 | 57 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 65 | 26 | 21 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | cross | off | on | cross |
High Tide | 7:20PM2.37m | 7:55AM2.33m | 8:16PM2.30m | 8:47AM2.32m | 9:10PM2.24m | 9:37AM2.30m | 10:01PM2.19m | 10:25AM2.27m | 10:50PM2.15m | 11:12AM2.23m | 11:37PM2.10m | 12:01PM2.19m | 00:24AM2.07m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:36AM0.36m | 1:58PM0.43m | 2:26AM0.44m | 2:52PM0.56m | 3:17AM0.54m | 3:46PM0.66m | 4:08AM0.64m | 4:41PM0.74m | 4:58AM0.71m | 5:34PM0.79m | 5:45AM0.76m | 6:25PM0.80m | ||||||||
 |  | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — |
 | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
Feels °C | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | E 9 | E 9 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 14 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 9 | SE 7 | SE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | NE 4 | NNE 4 | ENE 5 | E 13 |
| kJ | 35 | 34 | 78 | 61 | 112 | 49 | 34 | 412 | 86 | 57 | 32 | 16 | 8 | 65 | 26 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 9 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | E 11 | SSE 10 | ESE 10 | E 12 | SSE 15 | SSE 14 | E 9 | SE 8 | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 3 | NE 6 | SE 13 | E 15 | E 14 | S 10 |
| kJ | 46 | 43 | 23 | 21 | 143 | 36 | 9 | 25 | 88 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 4 | SSE 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 13 | ESE 9 | — | E 12 | ESE 14 | E 9 | SSE 13 | S 12 | SSE 12 | SE 12 | E 10 | E 9 | E 11 | S 10 | E 12 | S 15 |
| kJ | 3 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 84 | 8 | — | 11 | 18 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 19 | — | — | — | SSW 6 | WSW 3 | S 11 | SSW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | — | — | NNW 3 | WNW 3 | NNW 3 | N 4 |
| kJ | 175 | — | — | — | 177 | 6 | 251 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 22 | 31 | 22 | 31 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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