Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 10 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 12 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 16s period, SSE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 12 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period, SSE swell with 291 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 12 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 16s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 16s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.8m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.0m 15s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 12) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 16s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Sat 12th Sep) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Sat 12th Sep) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Taylors Mistake has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.
First things first, the water is sitting at about 52°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a small bonus, but honestly, it’s going to be a lean run for a while.
We’ve got a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions ahead. From Thursday the 10th right through to Monday the 21st, it’s mostly small, weak, and messy. There are a few fleeting moments of clean surf, like Saturday the 12th morning with a 2 ft SSE swell and a very long period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy hits a moderate 170. But the waves are just too weak to get excited about. Sunday the 13th morning is clean again with a 1 ft SE swell and a nice 13-second period, but the energy is only 72. It’s surfable but very ordinary. You'll find a couple of glassy mornings on Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th, but the swell is barely a ripple. It’s a real waiting game.
Now, if you’ve got the patience, there’s a real standout brewing. The morning of Tuesday the 22nd of September is the one to circle. We’re looking at a clean, glassy start with a solid 5 ft swell from the east. The period is a nice 11 seconds, giving it proper shape and energy. The combined energy is a strong 652. That’s the best on offer, hands down. The wind is glassy, so it’ll be pristine. The afternoon holds up just as well, with the same size and clean conditions. This is a proper session, but with that size and east swell direction, it’s going to be one for the experienced crew. Beginners might find it a bit much. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so expect company on a day like this.
Wednesday the 23rd drops off a bit as the wind turns onshore and the swell starts to fade, but the energy is still moderate. After that, we get a few more average days before the forecast window closes.
So, to sum it up: a whole lot of nothing for the first week and a half, then one cracking day on the 22nd. It’s worth waiting for.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 5°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Very mild (max 18°C on Tue afternoon, min 7°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 10 | Friday 11 | Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | E 8 | SSE 19 | SSE 18 | E 8 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SE 13 | SSE 12 | SE 12 | SE 9 | SE 10 | N 4 | E 11 | E 13 | NNE 4 | NNE 8 | E 4 | E 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 46 | 19 | 36 | 32 | 5 | 26 | 151 | 291 | 171 | 42 | 56 | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 108 | 3 | 3 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | glassy | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-on | on | cross |
High Tide | 3:23PM2.40m | 3:48AM2.32m | 4:15PM2.39m | 4:41AM2.32m | 5:07PM2.36m | 5:37AM2.32m | 6:00PM2.33m | 6:33AM2.32m | 6:53PM2.28m | 7:26AM2.33m | 7:46PM2.23m | 8:15AM2.32m | 8:38PM2.18m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:10AM0.29m | 9:38PM0.33m | 10:05AM0.28m | 10:32PM0.34m | 10:58AM0.30m | 11:26PM0.36m | 11:50AM0.36m | 00:17AM0.40m | 12:41PM0.45m | 1:05AM0.46m | 1:32PM0.55m | 1:52AM0.55m | 2:23PM0.64m | 2:39AM0.65m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | |  | | | |  | |  | | |
 | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:33 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — |
 | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:17 | — |
mm | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 6 | — |
Temp °C | 7 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
Feels °C | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | E 8 | SE 5 | E 8 | NE 4 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SE 13 | E 12 | SE 12 | SE 9 | SE 10 | NE 4 | SE 8 | E 10 | E 10 | E 4 | E 4 | N 3 |
| kJ | 46 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 151 | 291 | 171 | 42 | 3 | 37 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 16 | E 16 | E 8 | SSE 18 | E 8 | SSE 5 | ENE 13 | ENE 13 | ENE 13 | NNE 4 | — | E 12 | S 12 | E 12 | SSE 8 | E 11 | S 8 | E 13 | NE 8 | NE 6 | NE 5 |
| kJ | 5 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 22 | — | SSE 19 | SE 5 | S 18 | ENE 4 | E 7 | — | ENE 9 | SSE 17 | NE 12 | E 9 | S 16 | S 16 | E 12 | E 11 | E 13 | E 11 | E 13 | S 16 | E 12 |
| kJ | 37 | — | 36 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | 8 | 29 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 3 | S 20 | — | N 3 | — | — | — | — | NNE 3 | SSW 12 | SSE 12 | — | NNE 2 | ENE 3 | N 4 | NNW 4 | N 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 8 | WNW 3 | WNW 4 |
| kJ | 2 | 198 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1314 | 56 | — | 1 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 17 | 25 | 108 | 5 | 6 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 22 | 4 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 255 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 31 | 31 | 22 | 31 | 31 | 36 | 22 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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