Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Issued: 11 am 05 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
10.5° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 11s period, ESE swell with cross-shore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 11s period, ESE swell with 2,339 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period with E swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 3.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 6AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3PM (Tue 7th Jul)4.5ft (1.4m) 9s
Best Surf 3AM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 11s
Most Powerful 3AM (Thu 9th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright mate, let’s break it down for Taylors Mistake.

Water temp’s about 51°, a little warmer than usual for July – nothing wild, but it’s a nice change.

First few days are pretty grim. Sunday the 5th starts with a small 3ft swell from the ENE, 10-second period, light cross-off breeze that keeps it clean. Energy’s moderate (221), but it’s nothing special. Sunday afternoon the wind swings to the SW and cranks up to 18 mph, and it all falls apart. Monday’s a washout with onshore wind and rain. Don’t bother.

Tuesday the 7th shows some potential. Morning’s still a bit rough, but Tuesday afternoon the wind drops to a light breeze, cross-off, with waves around 5ft from the East at 9 seconds. Energy’s moderate (375) and it’s clean. That’s your first real window.

Wednesday the 8th morning steps up: 5ft East swell, period hitting 11 seconds, light cross-off wind. Energy jumps to 602 – solid, moderate-to-strong. Those waves will have some push. The afternoon gets a bit cross-chop from the south, so morning is the go.

Thursday morning the 9th holds similar size (5ft, 10 seconds) with light cross-off wind and clean conditions. Energy’s still solid at 479. Afternoon turns poor.

Friday the 10th is another cracker: 5ft East swell, 11 seconds, light cross-off breeze, energy at 544. Clean, consistent, good shape.

Saturday the 11th morning has a nice WSW offshore wind (9 mph) on 4ft East swell at 11 seconds. Energy’s moderate (272), but that offshore breeze will make for some clean lines. Afternoon’s okay but not as good.

From Sunday the 12th through Tuesday the 14th, the energy drops off a cliff – numbers like 83, 71, 99. Small, weak, not worth paddling out. Glassy conditions here and there, but the swell’s just too tiny.

Now, the real highlight: Wednesday the 15th. Morning brings 4ft from the ESE at a very long 12 seconds, light offshore wind, and energy of 432. That’s proper groundswell – clean, with good shape. Just remember, that long period can make a beach break a bit weird and straight, but Taylors handles it alright. The afternoon? Glassy. Full glass-off with 4ft East swell. That is your best session of the whole outlook.

Thursday the 16th still has some 3ft East swell at 11 seconds, moderate energy (253), and morning’s clean. Afternoon gets light cross-onshore and messy. From Friday the 17th onward, it’s mostly small, weak, and blown out – energy below 200, with onshore or cross-onshore wind right through to Monday the 20th. Last few days are a disappointment.

Best on offer: Wednesday the 15th, no question. Both sessions are quality, but that afternoon glass-off with 4ft East at 12 seconds is the pick. Clean, decent size, proper shape. Second shout is Friday the 10th morning – similar size, slightly shorter period (11 seconds) but still clean and fun.

Crowds at Taylors can be around sometimes, so mid-week might be quieter.

Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 27mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 12°C on Sun morning, min 5°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Sun morning, fresh winds from the WSW by Sun night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed morning, min 4°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
ENE
10
1
ENE
9
0.8
ENE
9
0.6
E
9
1
SSE
8
0.9
E
10
1.3
E
9
1.4
E
9
1.4
ENE
10
1.5
E
11
1.6
E
11
1.7
E
11
1.5
E
10
1.4
E
10
1.3
E
10
1.5
E
11
1.4
E
11
1.2
E
11
1.1
E
11
1
E
11
0.9
E
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
163
181
113
60
140
148
282
334
402
533
617
676
479
384
340
544
442
323
272
220
158
Wind (km/h)
10
NNW
30
SW
30
SW
20
SSW
25
SSW
25
SSW
15
S
10
S
10
SW
10
SW
15
S
20
S
15
SSW
20
S
10
SW
10
SW
15
SW
20
WSW
15
WSW
15
SW
10
WSW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
off
High Tide
8:28PM2.12m
9:00AM2.03m
9:17PM2.12m
9:45AM2.08m
10:08PM2.14m
10:33AM2.14m
10:59PM2.17m
11:24AM2.22m
11:51PM2.21m
12:20PM2.31m
00:47AM2.25m
1:17PM2.41m
1:46AM2.30m
Low Tide
2:10PM0.58m
2:45AM0.57m
2:55PM0.59m
3:31AM0.57m
3:45PM0.60m
4:21AM0.57m
4:39PM0.62m
5:14AM0.55m
5:37PM0.62m
6:07AM0.50m
6:38PM0.58m
7:00AM0.45m
7:38PM0.50m
part cloud
light rain
light rain
light rain
light rain
heavy rain
light rain
cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
8:02
8:02
8:00
8:00
8:00
8:00
8:00
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:04
5:05
5:05
5:06
5:07
5:07
5:07
 mm
1
1
2
4
11
5
3
2
Temp °C
12
8
6
10
9
9
10
10
9
11
11
10
8
8
7
7
7
6
5
8
7
Feels °C
9
1
0
6
4
4
7
8
6
8
8
6
3
3
3
2
2
2
0
4
3
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.9
ENE
10
1
ENE
9
0.8
ENE
9
0.6
E
9
0.5
E
9
0.9
E
10
1.3
E
9
1.4
E
9
1.4
ENE
10
1.5
E
11
1.6
E
11
1.7
E
11
1.5
E
10
1.4
E
10
1.3
E
10
1.5
E
11
1.4
E
11
1.2
E
11
1.1
E
11
1
E
11
0.9
E
10
Energy kJ
163
181
113
60
44
148
282
334
402
533
617
676
479
384
340
544
442
323
272
220
158
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
NE
8
0.2
S
16
0.4
SW
7
0.5
E
10
0.6
ENE
8
0.2
E
10
0.5
S
16
0.5
S
15
0.4
SE
7
0.4
SSW
13
0.5
S
18
0.4
S
16
0.5
S
14
0.8
SSW
12
0.2
S
17
0.1
S
16
0.1
S
16
0.6
S
10
0.1
S
18
0.1
S
20
0.2
SSE
16
Energy kJ
58
19
13
50
47
8
118
104
16
55
152
80
99
178
23
5
5
68
6
8
27
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.2
S
17
0.2
S
21
0.1
S
14
0.2
S
19
0.3
SSW
18
0.2
S
21
0.5
S
19
0.4
S
15
0.4
S
18
0.4
S
17
0.4
S
8
Energy kJ
23
35
4
29
60
35
186
68
99
86
18
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
N
3
0.4
WSW
3
0.6
S
3
1
SSE
8
1
SSE
8
0.6
SSE
8
0.6
SE
7
1.3
SSE
7
0.9
SSE
6
0.1
S
18
1.5
SSE
6
0.1
S
19
0.6
S
11
0.6
S
5
Energy kJ
6
4
7
140
147
46
41
168
69
6
167
7
82
18
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
1
2
2
1
5
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
Distance (km)
0
22
31
1
181
181
1
0
0
0
1
181
151
181
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury
Rating
(10 max)
4
3
2
1
2
2
4
4
2
2
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
5
9
7
5
6
8
7
5
5
9
8
9
9
5
5
5
5
8
7
6
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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