
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 11s period, ESE swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 11s period, ESE swell with 2,339 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 3.0m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Tue 7th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Thu 9th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright mate, let’s break it down for Taylors Mistake.
Water temp’s about 51°, a little warmer than usual for July – nothing wild, but it’s a nice change.
First few days are pretty grim. Sunday the 5th starts with a small 3ft swell from the ENE, 10-second period, light cross-off breeze that keeps it clean. Energy’s moderate (221), but it’s nothing special. Sunday afternoon the wind swings to the SW and cranks up to 18 mph, and it all falls apart. Monday’s a washout with onshore wind and rain. Don’t bother.
Tuesday the 7th shows some potential. Morning’s still a bit rough, but Tuesday afternoon the wind drops to a light breeze, cross-off, with waves around 5ft from the East at 9 seconds. Energy’s moderate (375) and it’s clean. That’s your first real window.
Wednesday the 8th morning steps up: 5ft East swell, period hitting 11 seconds, light cross-off wind. Energy jumps to 602 – solid, moderate-to-strong. Those waves will have some push. The afternoon gets a bit cross-chop from the south, so morning is the go.
Thursday morning the 9th holds similar size (5ft, 10 seconds) with light cross-off wind and clean conditions. Energy’s still solid at 479. Afternoon turns poor.
Friday the 10th is another cracker: 5ft East swell, 11 seconds, light cross-off breeze, energy at 544. Clean, consistent, good shape.
Saturday the 11th morning has a nice WSW offshore wind (9 mph) on 4ft East swell at 11 seconds. Energy’s moderate (272), but that offshore breeze will make for some clean lines. Afternoon’s okay but not as good.
From Sunday the 12th through Tuesday the 14th, the energy drops off a cliff – numbers like 83, 71, 99. Small, weak, not worth paddling out. Glassy conditions here and there, but the swell’s just too tiny.
Now, the real highlight: Wednesday the 15th. Morning brings 4ft from the ESE at a very long 12 seconds, light offshore wind, and energy of 432. That’s proper groundswell – clean, with good shape. Just remember, that long period can make a beach break a bit weird and straight, but Taylors handles it alright. The afternoon? Glassy. Full glass-off with 4ft East swell. That is your best session of the whole outlook.
Thursday the 16th still has some 3ft East swell at 11 seconds, moderate energy (253), and morning’s clean. Afternoon gets light cross-onshore and messy. From Friday the 17th onward, it’s mostly small, weak, and blown out – energy below 200, with onshore or cross-onshore wind right through to Monday the 20th. Last few days are a disappointment.
Best on offer: Wednesday the 15th, no question. Both sessions are quality, but that afternoon glass-off with 4ft East at 12 seconds is the pick. Clean, decent size, proper shape. Second shout is Friday the 10th morning – similar size, slightly shorter period (11 seconds) but still clean and fun.
Crowds at Taylors can be around sometimes, so mid-week might be quieter.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 27mm), heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 12°C on Sun morning, min 5°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Sun morning, fresh winds from the WSW by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed morning, min 4°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 9 | SSE 8 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
163 | 181 | 113 | 60 | 140 | 148 | 282 | 334 | 402 | 533 | 617 | 676 | 479 | 384 | 340 | 544 | 442 | 323 | 272 | 220 | 158 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 8:28PM2.12m | 9:00AM2.03m | 9:17PM2.12m | 9:45AM2.08m | 10:08PM2.14m | 10:33AM2.14m | 10:59PM2.17m | 11:24AM2.22m | 11:51PM2.21m | 12:20PM2.31m | 00:47AM2.25m | 1:17PM2.41m | 1:46AM2.30m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:10PM0.58m | 2:45AM0.57m | 2:55PM0.59m | 3:31AM0.57m | 3:45PM0.60m | 4:21AM0.57m | 4:39PM0.62m | 5:14AM0.55m | 5:37PM0.62m | 6:07AM0.50m | 6:38PM0.58m | 7:00AM0.45m | 7:38PM0.50m | ||||||||
8:02 | — | — | 8:02 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | |
— | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 5 | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
Feels °C | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 |
163 | 181 | 113 | 60 | 44 | 148 | 282 | 334 | 402 | 533 | 617 | 676 | 479 | 384 | 340 | 544 | 442 | 323 | 272 | 220 | 158 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 8 | S 16 | SW 7 | E 10 | ENE 8 | E 10 | S 16 | S 15 | SE 7 | SSW 13 | S 18 | S 16 | S 14 | SSW 12 | S 17 | S 16 | S 16 | S 10 | S 18 | S 20 | SSE 16 |
58 | 19 | 13 | 50 | 47 | 8 | 118 | 104 | 16 | 55 | 152 | 80 | 99 | 178 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 6 | 8 | 27 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | — | S 21 | — | — | — | — | — | S 14 | S 19 | SSW 18 | — | S 21 | S 19 | — | — | — | S 15 | S 18 | S 17 | S 8 |
23 | — | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 29 | 60 | — | 35 | 186 | — | — | — | 68 | 99 | 86 | 18 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | — | WSW 3 | S 3 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SE 7 | SSE 7 | SSE 6 | S 18 | SSE 6 | — | S 19 | — | — | S 11 | S 5 | — | — | — |
6 | — | 4 | 7 | 140 | 147 | 46 | 41 | 168 | 69 | 6 | 167 | — | 7 | — | — | 82 | 18 | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 22 | 31 | 1 | 181 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 181 | 151 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.










