Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 17 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 23s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 23s period, SSE swell with 1,532 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 15s period. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.2m 23s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 23s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 23s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, zooming in on the forecast.
We’re looking at Taylors Mistake as the main spot. Water temp is 50°, which is about average for this time of year.
The first real window opens on Friday the 17th in the afternoon. It’s small, with a 3ft easterly swell, but the wind is glassy from the NE at only 3 mph. The combined energy is solid at 520, and that long 16-second period means proper groundswell energy. Clean, but small.
Saturday the 18th is the best of the bunch. The morning session is looking great – 3ft of easterly swell with a 15-second period, 869 combined energy, and a light offshore breeze from the WSW at 6 mph. It’s going to be clean. Then, Saturday afternoon gets even better for the experienced crew. The swell jumps to 4ft from the SSE with a massive 23-second period. The combined energy is a whopping 2279 – that’s serious power. With a light cross-offshore breeze from the north at 3 mph, it’s going to be pumping. This is the session to aim for.
Sunday the 19th starts off okay with a 2ft easterly swell and a cross-offshore breeze, but it fades into the afternoon as the wind swings cross-onshore. Monday the 20th has a chance in the morning with a glassy 2ft SSE swell, but the energy is moderate.
After that, it’s a long, flat run. From Tuesday the 21st through to the 1st of August, the swell drops right off. We’re looking at days of tiny waves – often under 2ft – with combined energy dropping into the double digits. The wind is all over the place, and while there are a few glassy moments, the lack of swell is a killer. From the 22nd onward, it’s a long stretch of marginal to poor surf. There’s a small lift in swell around the 26th and 27th, but it’s still only 2ft to 3ft, and the wind is often too strong or onshore to make it work. The period drops to 7-8 seconds by the end, which is just sloppy windswell.
So, the honest truth: Saturday the 18th is your only real standout. The morning offshore session is a must for everyone, and the afternoon is for the confident crew on the bigger, longer-period groundswell. After that, it’s a long wait.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Sat afternoon, min 7°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 10°C on Tue afternoon, min 7°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 16 | E 15 | E 15 | SSE 23 | ESE 14 | E 13 | E 13 | ESE 12 | SSE 19 | SSE 19 | SSE 17 | SE 13 | SE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SE 14 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 520 | 484 | 447 | 1532 | 258 | 176 | 125 | 190 | 325 | 305 | 168 | 44 | 41 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 26 | 22 | 11 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-on | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | cross-off | off | on | cross-on | cross | on | off |
High Tide | 6:54PM2.53m | 7:25AM2.39m | 7:50PM2.45m | 8:22AM2.35m | 8:46PM2.36m | 9:16AM2.31m | 9:41PM2.29m | 10:09AM2.28m | 10:34PM2.23m | 11:00AM2.26m | 11:24PM2.18m | 11:52AM2.24m | 00:13AM2.14m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:14AM0.26m | 1:32PM0.22m | 2:06AM0.31m | 2:25PM0.33m | 2:59AM0.39m | 3:20PM0.47m | 3:53AM0.47m | 4:17PM0.60m | 4:46AM0.55m | 5:15PM0.70m | 5:37AM0.63m | 6:12PM0.76m | ||||||||
 |  | | | | |  |  | | | |  | |  | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — |
 | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Feels °C | 9 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 16 | E 15 | E 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | SSE 19 | SSE 19 | SSE 17 | SE 13 | SE 13 | SSE 12 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SE 14 | SE 13 | SE 12 | NE 4 |
| kJ | 520 | 484 | 447 | 346 | 258 | 176 | 125 | 77 | 325 | 305 | 168 | 44 | 41 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 26 | 22 | 9 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 19 | SSE 23 | SSE 23 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | SSE 19 | SSE 18 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | NE 4 | NE 4 | ENE 5 | ENE 5 | E 11 | SE 9 | — | E 11 | SSE 11 |
| kJ | 5 | 7 | 422 | 401 | 110 | 86 | 72 | 130 | 49 | 49 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — | 3 | 11 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | S 20 | — | SSE 23 | SSE 22 | SE 21 | — | ESE 12 | — | — | — | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | E 11 | NE 4 | E 11 | E 12 | S 12 | E 11 |
| kJ | — | 31 | — | 1532 | 46 | 17 | — | 190 | — | — | — | 25 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSE 14 | — | — | — | — | NNE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 2 | ENE 3 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 40 | — | — | — | — | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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