Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 31 Aug 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
10.7°C
1.6° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 31 Aug 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 2 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 17s period, SSE swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 2 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 17s period, SSE swell with 267 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 1 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 13s period with SSE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.5m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.7m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 02) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 10s period and expected on Monday (Sep 07) at 9PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 3AM (Tue 1st Sep)1.5ft (0.5m) 13s
Best Surf12AM (Wed 2nd Sep)2.5ft (0.7m) 17s
Most Powerful12AM (Wed 2nd Sep)2.5ft (0.7m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer at Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the buzz isn’t great. The start of this forecast period is pretty gutless. There’s a bit of small swell, but the scores are flat. We’re looking at a long stretch of nothing special, so don’t get your hopes up.

It kicks off Monday afternoon (31 August) with a tiny 2 ft SSE swell, period of 13 seconds. The combined energy is only 106, so it’s weak. Water temp is sitting at 51°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. But it’s light rain and a cross-off wind, so it’s clean for a beginner paddle, but that's about all it’s good for.

Tuesday morning (1 September) sees a slight bump to 2 ft SSE swell, still with that long 13-second period. Winds go light offshore from the west, so it’ll look clean, but the energy is still low at 156. You can get a wave, but it's ordinary. The afternoon goes cross-on from the NE, so it’s not going to improve.

Wednesday morning (2 September) is the same 2 ft SSE swell, but the period stretches right out to 17 seconds – a proper groundswell. Combined energy hits moderate at 249. Offshore west wind will keep it clean, but a 17-second period on a beach break like this might make it a bit too straight and tricky to line up. It’s a possibility for the patient surfer, but nothing to get excited about. That afternoon the wind cranks from the north at 22 mph and drops the swell to 2 ft – a write-off.

After that, we hit a proper dead zone. From Thursday (3 September) through to Friday (11 September), there are days with next to no swell. Wave heights drop below 2 ft, the energy figures are all single-digit or low double-digit weak. It’s a gap of around a week where there is no real surf recommendation. The winds do go offshore at times, but there’s just no power. On Saturday morning (5 September) there is a 0.7 ft ENE swell with a period of 8 seconds – that is barely a ripple.

Tuesday morning (8 September) and Wednesday (9 September) are similar – tiny waves with cross-shore or cross-on winds. Not worth a look.

Finally, there’s a small pulse on Saturday morning (12 September). It’s a 2 ft ESE swell, period of 10 seconds, energy of 65. Winds are light cross-off from the SW early on, and conditions are clean. It’s surfable but very ordinary – a longboarder might get a few soft ones if they’re keen. Sunday morning (13 September) is flat with glassy conditions and a 1 ft ESE swell, but the energy is only 44 – you’d be straining for it.

The outlook doesn’t improve much into the second week. Monday 14 September through to Tuesday 15 September offers just tiny scraps of swell with weak energy. The best of a bad lot might be Tuesday morning (15 September) with a 1.0 ft SSE swell from a long 16-second period, but the energy is just 52, so it’s not going to deliver.

The honest truth? There is no standout session in this 16-day window. If you are a beginner and just want to sit in the whitewash when it’s clean, you might get a few moments on Wednesday morning (2 September) or Saturday morning (12 September). For anyone else, this run is a blank. Forecasts can change, but right now, the Mistake is living up to its name.

Stay patient.

- Rusty

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu morning, min 3°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the N on Wed afternoon, calm by Wed night).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu afternoon, min 7°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNW on Thu night, calm by Fri night).

Mon
31
Tuesday
1
Wednesday
2
Thursday
3
Friday
4
Saturday
5
Sunday
6
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SSE
13
0.3
SE
4
0.7
SSE
13
0.7
SSE
14
0.7
SSE
17
0.7
SSE
17
0.5
SSE
14
0.4
SE
12
0.2
SSE
11
0.2
ENE
5
0.9
NNE
4
0.4
NE
9
0.6
ENE
10
0.2
ENE
7
0.2
ENE
8
0.1
SE
10
0.6
N
3
1.1
NE
5
0.5
NE
9
0.4
NE
7
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
98
3
154
161
267
246
105
37
11
3
30
29
61
5
6
4
8
55
41
12
Wind (km/h)
15
SSW
25
SW
10
WSW
10
NNE
5
WNW
10
WNW
35
NNW
10
WNW
10
N
25
NNW
35
NNW
30
WNW
20
WSW
5
NW
10
NW
5
ENE
25
NNW
20
NE
15
WSW
20
SSW
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-on
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
glassy
cross-off
on
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
High Tide
6:45PM2.26m
7:16AM2.24m
7:37PM2.25m
8:07AM2.29m
8:33PM2.24m
8:59AM2.32m
9:30PM2.23m
9:53AM2.35m
10:26PM2.23m
10:49AM2.37m
11:21PM2.24m
11:47AM2.38m
00:16AM2.25m
Low Tide
1:01AM0.48m
1:19PM0.49m
1:48AM0.50m
2:11PM0.53m
2:39AM0.51m
3:09PM0.56m
3:36AM0.52m
4:09PM0.57m
4:34AM0.50m
5:11PM0.53m
5:31AM0.45m
6:09PM0.47m
light rain
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
cloud
cloud
rain showers
heavy rain
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:56
6:54
6:52
6:50
6:48
6:48
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:00
6:00
6:01
6:04
6:05
6:06
6:07
 mm
2
1
1
14
Temp °C
9
7
9
9
7
12
13
12
18
18
16
15
15
10
13
13
12
13
16
9
Feels °C
4
0
5
5
4
8
5
9
13
13
9
7
9
7
11
10
6
10
13
5
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  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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