Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 28 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
9.5° C
0.2° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 28 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 29 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 13s period, E swell with glassy winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 28 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 14s period, E swell with 436 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 29 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 13s period with E swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.1m 14s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Friday (Jul 31) at 6PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Wed 29th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 13s
Best Surf 6AM (Wed 29th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 13s
Most Powerful 9PM (Tue 28th Jul)3.5ft (1.1m) 14s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Right, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at Taylors Mistake.

We’ve got a decent little run of clean, small waves kicking off Tuesday morning, July 28th. The water’s sitting at 49°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year – no nasty surprises there. Tuesday morning you’re looking at a 4ft easterly swell with a lovely 13-second period, and the wind is glassy from the west. It’s gonna be clean, fun, and perfect for the beginners this spot is known for. That same energy carries through into Tuesday afternoon, still glassy with an easterly breeze, and the swell hangs in there. The combined energy is solid moderate at 417.

Wednesday morning, July 29th, is another glassy one, though the swell drops a touch to 3ft, still from the east and that same long 13-second period. It’s still clean and ridable. By Wednesday afternoon, the wind goes light northwesterly and glassy, but the swell is down to 3ft – surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Thursday, July 30th, through to the end of the first week, the wind turns nasty – strong northerlies and cross-shore conditions, with the swell dropping to 2ft and then 1ft. Friday afternoon, July 31st, sees a brief flicker with a light offshore westerly, but the swell is only 1ft and weak. The first weekend of August is a write-off: rainy, strong southwesterlies, and messy cross-off winds, even though the swell picks up a little to 3ft on Saturday afternoon. The energy is moderate at 234, but the wind is just too strong.

Monday, August 3rd, things calm down. The morning is glassy again with a northwesterly, swell at 2ft from the southeast. It’s clean but small. Tuesday, August 4th, has a nice offshore westerly with a 2ft southeast swell, but the period is a massive 19 seconds – very long groundswell. That’ll make for some nice lines at the point, but it might be a bit straight for the beach. Still, it’s clean.

Now, the real standout. Thursday, August 6th, builds through the day. The morning has a 4ft southeast swell, a light offshore, and the combined energy is up to 515. Then Thursday afternoon is the pick of the whole run: 6ft of southeast swell, 16-second period, glassy conditions with a light westerly wind. The combined energy hits 1551 – that’s strong, and it’s labelled excellent for experienced surfers. This is a proper session for the crew who know what they’re doing. The crowd can be an issue at Taylors, so get in early.

After that, the wind howls again from Friday, August 7th, through the weekend – strong southwesterlies, rain, and messy conditions. The swell is there but the wind ruins it. There’s a glimmer on Sunday, August 9th, with a lighter breeze and a 3ft southeast swell, but it’s nothing special.

The second week fades out. Monday, August 10th, is small and clean-ish, but the energy is weak. Tuesday, August 11th, has a weird little 3ft north-easterly with a short 5-second period – that’s windswell, sloppy. And from Wednesday, August 12th, it’s pretty much flat with almost no energy.

So, the standout is Thursday afternoon, August 6th. That’s the one to circle. Clean, strong, and for the experienced. The rest of the window is mostly small, clean, or blown out. Get on it while it’s good.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 8°C on Tue morning). Winds increasing (calm on Tue morning, fresh winds from the N by Thu afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 4°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Fri night, calm by Sun afternoon).

Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
Thursday
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.1
E
13
1.1
E
13
1
E
13
0.9
E
13
0.8
E
13
0.8
E
12
0.6
E
12
0.6
E
12
0.5
E
11
0.4
E
12
0.4
E
12
0.3
ESE
15
0.4
ESE
16
0.8
SE
10
0.6
ESE
14
0.7
SE
10
0.5
SE
13
0.8
SE
12
0.6
SE
12
0.5
SE
12
0.5
SSE
19
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
417
417
350
276
209
190
104
101
64
43
42
43
97
122
121
98
78
172
112
65
205
Wind (km/h)
5
W
5
NE
15
ENE
5
W
5
NW
5
N
20
N
30
N
20
N
25
N
15
W
45
SW
25
SW
20
SW
15
WSW
30
SW
15
SSW
15
NE
5
NW
10
W
15
WSW
Wind State
glassy
glassy
on
glassy
glassy
cross
cross
cross
cross
cross
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
glassy
off
cross-off
High Tide
3:47PM2.20m
4:05AM2.07m
4:29PM2.19m
4:46AM2.07m
5:09PM2.19m
5:29AM2.06m
5:49PM2.20m
6:13AM2.06m
6:29PM2.20m
6:58AM2.07m
7:12PM2.19m
7:45AM2.10m
8:00PM2.19m
Low Tide
9:26AM0.70m
10:00PM0.73m
10:12AM0.65m
10:43PM0.68m
10:56AM0.59m
11:27PM0.62m
11:37AM0.54m
00:09AM0.57m
12:17PM0.51m
00:50AM0.53m
12:59PM0.50m
1:31AM0.52m
1:42PM0.51m
2:15AM0.53m
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
mod rain
rain showers
clear
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
cloud
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:47
7:46
7:43
7:43
7:41
7:41
7:39
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:23
5:24
5:25
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
 mm
1
8
7
1
3
3
Temp °C
10
11
9
10
13
10
14
14
12
13
12
7
4
7
7
7
8
6
7
12
8
Feels °C
7
8
5
7
11
8
8
7
6
8
8
-4
-3
3
-1
0
3
3
3
8
4
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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