Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s how the next 16 days shape up at Taylors Mistake (Christchurch).

Right off the bat, the early part of the window is a flat spell. Nothing worthwhile on the cards from Tuesday 14 July right through to early Friday 17 July. The water temp is sitting at 50°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – about average, no nasty surprises.

Things start to stir a little on Friday morning the 17th. The swell bumps up to 3 ft from the east with a period of 17 seconds – that’s a long-period groundswell. The energy jumps to 412 (moderate), and with a light cross breeze, it’s only rated as marginal. It’s small and the long period will make it fat and tricky, not really worth a paddle.

Saturday 18 July morning is where you want to be. The swell holds at 3 ft from the east, period 15 seconds, and the energy is solid at 505 (moderate). But the big draw is the wind – a light offshore from the west, leaving it clean. This is the pick of the first week. It’s not big, but it’ll have some push and be well-shaped. Expect a bit of crowd, though – this spot can get busy when it’s clean.

Saturday afternoon the wind swings southwest and picks up to 16 mph, turning it cross-offshore and messy. Not the call.

Sunday 19 July through to early the following week stays small, with heights from 1 ft to 2 ft and periods dropping into the 13-second range. Winds stay light and mainly offshore or glassy, so the surface will be clean, but there’s just not enough power in the water. Wave energy sits between 161 and 230 (weak to moderate). Surfable, but very ordinary.

The second week stays stubbornly small. From Tuesday 21 July through to Friday 24 July, the swell barely reaches 1.0 ft to 1 ft, with periods around 11-13 seconds and weak energy values (32 to 61). Winds are light, often glassy, but you’re looking at flat to tiny lines. Not worth suiting up.

Finally, on Saturday 25 July morning, there’s a little pulse – 2 ft from the east at 15 seconds, energy 118 (weak), with glassy conditions. Still small, but the cleanest little dribble of the second half. Sunday 26 July remains similar, but the afternoon gets a cross-onshore breeze, so the morning is the cleaner call.

Heading into Monday 27 and Tuesday 28 July, the swell shows the most size of the second week – 2 ft to 3 ft from the east-northeast, periods around 12 seconds, and energy climbing to 256 (moderate) by Tuesday afternoon. But the standout here is Tuesday 28 July morning – 3 ft from the ENE, 12 seconds, with a light offshore and clean conditions. The energy hits 210 (moderate). It’s still small, but with that offshore wind, it’ll be the cleanest option in a very average run.

Wednesday 29 July morning keeps the offshore wind and 2 ft from the ENE, and the afternoon goes glassy with 2 ft. Again, small and clean but nothing to get too excited about.

The true standout: Saturday 18 July morning. That 3 ft east swell with offshore wind, moderate energy at 505, and clean conditions – that’s the session to paddle for. Crowds will be around, but for good reason.

Close second: Tuesday 28 July morning. Smaller, at 3 ft from the ENE, but the offshore wind makes it rideable and clean. A solid late-window option.

Rusty.

Read more