
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 18 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 14s period, ESE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 19s period, SSE swell with 122 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 18 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 14s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 9s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.4m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 8s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 1ft (0.3m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 1ft (0.3m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up—this is gonna be a flat spell for Taylors Mistake. Over the next few weeks, there’s hardly any proper surf on offer, and the few tiny pulses that roll in are just not enough to get excited about.
The first week is a real struggle. From Tuesday 15th right through to the following Monday 21st, we’re stuck with nothing but poor surf—tiny 0.7ft to 2ft swells, mostly from the east or southeast, with short periods under 13 seconds. Winds are all over the place, mostly cross or onshore, so it’s choppy and messy. The combined energy is weak (16 to 91), so don’t bother paddling out.
There’s a small bump mid-week, on Wednesday 23rd September. By Wednesday afternoon, a 4ft SSE swell rolls in with a 13-second period, and clean cross-off winds from the SSW at 16 mph. The combined energy jumps to 376, which is moderate. It’s still a marginal wave, but for the first time in days it’s surfable. Thursday 24th has similar energy (252) in the afternoon with glassy conditions from a southerly, but it’s still only 3ft and nothing special.
The best on offer? Honestly, there’s no standout here. If you’re desperate, the Thursday afternoon (24th September) at Taylors Mistake has 3ft SE swell with a 13-second period, and glassy conditions from a light southerly—clean and small, but rideable for a beginner on a longboard. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.
Crowds? Taylors Mistake can get busy sometimes, so don’t expect solitude. It’s a fairly consistent spot, but this run is flat and uninspiring. The forecast confidence is solid for the near term, but it stays poor—even into the second week, from 25th September to 30th, the swells are back to 1ft to 1ft with weak energy. The last few days have clean offshore or glassy winds, but the swell just isn’t there. This is one of those stretches where you’re better off waiting for the next system.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed morning, min 6°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 12°C on Sat afternoon, min 4°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | SE 9 | ENE 13 | NE 6 | N 4 | N 3 | E 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 14 | E 13 | E 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SE 8 | SSE 19 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
23 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 20 | 40 | 85 | 73 | 92 | 47 | 41 | 24 | 24 | 35 | 122 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | on | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 7:26AM2.33m | 7:46PM2.23m | 8:15AM2.32m | 8:38PM2.18m | 9:01AM2.28m | 9:27PM2.14m | 9:45AM2.23m | 10:14PM2.10m | 10:30AM2.17m | 10:58PM2.06m | 11:18AM2.12m | 11:44PM2.02m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:05AM0.46m | 1:32PM0.55m | 1:52AM0.55m | 2:23PM0.64m | 2:39AM0.65m | 3:13PM0.71m | 3:27AM0.73m | 4:02PM0.76m | 4:15AM0.79m | 4:51PM0.79m | 5:02AM0.80m | 5:41PM0.80m | |||||||
— | 6:31 | — | — | 6:30 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | |
— | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:17 | — | — | 6:19 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:21 | — | — | 6:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
Feels °C | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | SE 9 | SSE 8 | NE 6 | SE 10 | ENE 5 | ENE 6 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 14 | E 13 | E 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | NE 4 | ESE 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 19 |
23 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 20 | 40 | 85 | 73 | 92 | 47 | 41 | 7 | 24 | 25 | 122 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | E 11 | SE 8 | E 13 | SE 10 | NE 8 | SSE 6 | SSE 3 | ESE 9 | SSE 6 | SE 5 | NE 4 | SE 5 | SE 5 | ESE 11 | ENE 10 | ESE 11 | SE 5 |
— | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 23 | 7 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 11 | S 14 | SE 10 | SE 7 | SE 7 | E 12 | ENE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | NE 5 | S 16 | ENE 8 | S 15 | SSE 14 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | ENE 9 | ESE 11 |
3 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 12 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 3 | NNE 3 | ENE 13 | NW 3 | N 4 | N 3 | SSW 4 | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | — | — | NE 3 | — | S 8 | SE 8 | NE 3 |
1 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | 4 | — | 464 | 35 | 5 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 31 | 31 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.










