Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 31 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
9.5° C
0.3° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 12s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 16s period, SSE swell with 392 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 12s period with SE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.9m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 4.5m 14s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 3AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6PM (Sat 1st Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 12s
Best Surf 6PM (Sat 1st Aug)2.5ft (0.8m) 12s
Most Powerful 9AM (Tue 4th Aug)3ft (0.9m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

The first week of this outlook is a tough one for Taylors Mistake. We’ve got a long, slow start with very little to get excited about. There’s a real gap of poor conditions from Friday the 31st of July right through the first week of August. The first few days are a write-off, with tiny, weak easterly swells and cross-off winds that just don’t put anything together. The combined energy is barely registering (63 on Friday morning), so it’s a real struggle.

Saturday the 1st of August shows a slight bump to 3ft from the southeast, but the wind is a messy cross-off from the southwest at 15 mph, and the energy is moderate (348). It’s still a marginal call. Sunday the 2nd offers a cleaner look with a light offshore from the west at 6 mph, and that 3ft southeast swell has a decent 13-second period, giving it some shape. The energy is moderate (210), but it’s just “ordinary” – not a standout, but the best of a flat week. Monday the 3rd has a glassy moment with a 2ft SSE groundswell and a very long 15-second period, but the energy is weak (124), so it’s more of a longboard glide than a punch.

We see a bit more energy on Tuesday the 4th with a 3ft SSE swell and a 16-second period, pushing the energy into the moderate range (395), but the 15 mph cross-off wind from the southwest keeps it from being clean. The water temperature is sitting at 49°F, which is about average for this time of year, so the wetsuit is your friend.

The real story, the one to mark on your calendar, is the second week. Tuesday the 11th of August is where we finally get some proper swell. A solid 6ft to 7ft easterly swell (ENE direction) rolls in with a clean offshore wind from the west-southwest at 6-9 mph. The energy jumps significantly (488 on Tuesday morning, 658 by afternoon). This is a big, powerful groundswell with a period of 8-9 seconds, which is punchy. It’s going to be a proper session for the experienced crew – that size is getting into the expert zone, so keep that in mind.

And then Wednesday the 12th of August is the absolute standout. The swell holds at 6ft, still from the ENE, but the period stretches to 11 seconds, and the energy is strong (731). The wind is light and variable, with a glassy morning. This is the best combination of size, power, and clean conditions in the entire forecast. The swell direction (ENE) is right on the money for Taylors Mistake’s optimum. This is a day to clear your schedule, but be aware – with conditions this good, crowds are possible.

After that, the swell slowly fades through the rest of the week. Thursday the 13th sees a drop to 4ft with a 12-second period, but the wind turns onshore, and the conditions become marginal. The following days are a slow decline back to the small stuff, with a final glassy, ordinary 3ft swell on Saturday the 15th.

So, to cut through it: the first week is a write-off. The best of the whole 16-day window is Wednesday the 12th of August. Tuesday the 11th is the runner-up, a solid day of powerful surf for the experts.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 4°C on Sat morning). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WSW on Fri night, calm by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 4°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Mon night, calm by Wed afternoon).

Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
Thursday
6
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.4
E
12
0.4
E
11
0.3
ESE
15
0.9
SE
13
0.9
SE
12
0.6
ESE
13
0.8
SE
13
0.6
SE
13
0.5
SE
12
0.4
SE
12
0.5
SSE
15
0.7
SSE
14
0.9
SSE
16
0.7
SE
16
0.6
SE
16
0.4
SSE
16
0.6
SE
12
0.6
SE
11
0.6
SE
10
0.5
SE
14
0.6
SE
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
43
40
43
245
205
120
205
132
69
34
123
178
392
268
198
98
114
94
68
91
142
Wind (km/h)
20
NNW
20
WSW
40
SW
25
SW
15
SW
5
WNW
10
W
10
ENE
10
W
5
W
15
WNW
35
SW
25
SW
25
SW
15
SW
10
SW
0
NE
5
SW
5
NNE
10
ENE
0
ENE
Wind State
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-on
off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
glassy
High Tide
5:49PM2.20m
6:13AM2.06m
6:29PM2.20m
6:58AM2.07m
7:12PM2.19m
7:45AM2.10m
8:00PM2.19m
8:31AM2.14m
8:52PM2.18m
9:19AM2.19m
9:46PM2.19m
10:10AM2.24m
10:40PM2.20m
Low Tide
11:37AM0.54m
00:09AM0.57m
12:17PM0.51m
00:50AM0.53m
12:59PM0.50m
1:31AM0.52m
1:42PM0.51m
2:15AM0.53m
2:30PM0.54m
3:03AM0.54m
3:22PM0.58m
3:56AM0.55m
4:21PM0.60m
part cloud
cloud
rain showers
rain showers
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:43
7:41
7:41
7:39
7:39
7:37
7:35
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
5:31
5:32
 mm
13
4
1
Temp °C
13
13
5
5
7
6
10
11
9
13
16
7
8
8
7
6
7
6
5
6
6
Feels °C
6
8
-7
-2
2
2
7
7
6
10
11
2
1
1
2
3
5
4
2
3
4
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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