
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 31 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 12s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 16s period, SSE swell with 512 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 12s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 8s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Sat 1st Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's look at what we've got on offer for the next couple of weeks. We're focusing on one spot, Taylors Mistake, and it's a bit of a mixed bag. Water temp is sitting around 50°F, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year.
The first few days are a bit of a write-off, honestly. Saturday the 1st has some knee-high swell (3ft) from the SE with a decent period, but that SW wind is messing with the shape. Combined energy is moderate at 349. Not worth getting wet for. Sunday the 2nd morning cleans up with offshore winds, but the swell is tiny at 3ft. It’s surfable, but you’ll be fighting for scraps.
We hit a real flat patch from Monday the 3rd through until late in the week. Swell drops to almost nothing, and the energy readings are pathetic – we're talking numbers in the 50s. Tuesday the 4th sees a spike in energy (502) from a strong southerly swell, but it’s accompanied by a brutal 28 mph wind. That’s a hard pass for paddle surfing; looks more like a day for the kite crew.
Wednesday the 5th is the first real glimmer of hope. The morning is clean with a light offshore from the WSW and a 3ft SE swell (167 energy). Then on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday the 6th, we get glassy conditions – flat calm. The swell is still small, but those conditions are pure magic. The waves will be tiny and clean.
Friday the 7th is a tough one. We get a big jump in energy (491) from a long-period SE groundswell (15 seconds), which is promising, but the wind is a cross-onshore and then onshore. It’s going to be a messy, blown-out 3ft. Long period swells like this can make beach breaks close out, so it’s a gamble.
The second week, from the 9th of August onwards, is a consistent but unexciting run of knee-to-waist high surf. The best bet is probably Sunday the 9th, with a 4ft SE swell and a clean cross-off breeze. The energy is moderate (194). It’s not going to blow you away, but it’s rideable. After that, the swell hangs around the 2ft to 3ft mark with a mix of wind conditions. The period drops to a shorter 8-9 seconds, so the waves will be a bit weaker and more frequent.
Tuesday the 11th morning has a glassy 3ft E swell, which is about as good as it gets for this stretch. From the 13th to the 15th, we get a run of glassy mornings with waist-high E swell, but nothing with any real power. It’s a long-range promise of clean, small waves. It’s not a standout, but if you’re desperate, it’s the best of a quiet period.
The standout window? It’s tight, but I’d have to say Wednesday the 5th afternoon and Thursday the 6th morning. The swell is tiny (2ft to 3ft from the SE), but you can’t buy glassy conditions like that. For a beginner-friendly spot like Taylors, those clean, small waves are the most fun you’ll have all fortnight.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 4°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sat night, strong winds from the SW by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Mild temperatures (max 8°C on Tue afternoon, min 4°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue morning, calm by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 13 | SE 12 | ESE 14 | SE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SSE 15 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SSE 18 | SE 15 | SSE 14 | SE 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
245 | 202 | 121 | 205 | 134 | 92 | 48 | 29 | 48 | 499 | 430 | 157 | 164 | 119 | 213 | 179 | 126 | 121 | 273 | 81 | 53 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-on | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | glassy | glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on |
High Tide | 6:29PM2.20m | 6:58AM2.07m | 7:12PM2.19m | 7:45AM2.10m | 8:00PM2.19m | 8:31AM2.14m | 8:52PM2.18m | 9:19AM2.19m | 9:46PM2.19m | 10:10AM2.24m | 10:40PM2.20m | 11:05AM2.30m | 11:35PM2.22m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 12:17PM0.51m | 00:50AM0.53m | 12:59PM0.50m | 1:31AM0.52m | 1:42PM0.51m | 2:15AM0.53m | 2:30PM0.54m | 3:03AM0.54m | 3:22PM0.58m | 3:56AM0.55m | 4:21PM0.60m | 4:52AM0.53m | 5:22PM0.59m | ||||||||
7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | 7:35 | — | — | |
— | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | |
mm | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
Feels °C | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SSE 11 | SSE 16 | SSE 16 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SSE 18 | SE 15 | SSE 14 | SE 12 |
245 | 202 | 110 | 205 | 134 | 92 | 48 | 21 | 48 | 499 | 430 | 157 | 164 | 119 | 213 | 179 | 126 | 121 | 273 | 81 | 53 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | E 16 | E 16 | NNE 3 | NE 6 | SSE 17 | SSE 15 | E 13 | E 13 | SE 16 | E 12 | ESE 14 | ESE 16 | NE 11 | S 10 | SE 11 | SE 12 | ENE 4 | ENE 5 |
95 | 144 | 121 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 69 | 3 | 19 | 25 | 5 | 71 | 55 | 210 | 7 | 5 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 10 | E 17 | S 19 | NE 16 | S 20 | S 13 | NE 5 | ESE 12 | — | — | E 12 | — | E 18 | ESE 16 | NE 11 | E 18 | SE 13 | — | SE 13 | SSE 12 |
9 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 14 | — | — | 3 | — | 6 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 44 | — | 44 | 14 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 3 | WSW 3 | — | WNW 3 | — | NNW 3 | NW 3 | — | — | SW 3 | SW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 4 | NE 5 | — |
3 | 1 | — | 3 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 25 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 151 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.











