Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, I’ve had a good look over the next 16 days for Taylors Mistake and, to be honest, it’s a pretty quiet stretch. The water temp is sitting right around average for the time of year at 50°, so nothing out of the ordinary there. The ocean is mostly taking a breather, with only a couple of moments that might be worth a quick paddle.

Starting off, Sunday the 23rd is a write-off – we’ve got a fresh offshore breeze swinging from the WNW at 22 mph, but the swell is tiny at 1 ft from the NE with a weak combined energy (38). It’s clean, sure, but there’s just nothing to ride. Monday the 24th morning offers a window of glassy conditions with the wind down to 3 mph from the NW, but the swell is a sad 1.0 ft from the SSE. It’s surfable but ordinary – the energy is weak (57).

The first real chance of anything decent comes on Thursday the 27th. The morning is a mess with onshore rain, but by the afternoon, a 4 ft swell from the ENE pops up with moderate combined energy (259). The issue is the period is a tiny 6 seconds – short period windswell – and the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph, making it lumpy. It’s poor surf conditions, but it’s the closest we get to a bump in size all week.

Friday the 28th morning sees the biggest swell of the whole outlook: 5 ft from the NE with a period of 7 seconds and combined energy climbing to 423, which is a moderate-to-strong push for this spot. However, the wind is a gentle cross-shore from the NNE at 9 mph, creating slight cross-chop. It’s marginal – the shape won’t be great due to that short period, and it’s board-short territory for anyone with experience. Afternoon cleaner with a 3 ft swell from the ENE, but it’s ordinary still.

After that, it drops right off. From the 29th of August all the way through to the 7th of September, we are looking at surf that barely cracks 2 ft. The combined energy figures are mostly in the double digits – really weak. There’s a brief moment on the 1st of September morning where a long-period 17-second swell from the SSE pushes the energy to 168 (moderate), but the swell height is only 2 ft, so it’s more of a long-period push than a proper wave. Clean with a moderate cross-off breeze, but not worth the drive.

The standout, if you can call it that, is Friday the 28th morning. It’s the only time the swell height gets over 5 ft, with that moderate combined energy of 423. It’s a NE swell, which doesn't match the ideal ENE direction for Taylors, and with a short 7-second period, it’s going to be a bit sectiony. But if you’re an experienced surfer and you’re desperate for a push, that’s your window. Crowds are “sometimes” at Taylors, so you might have company. For beginners, the 5 ft height with those conditions is too much.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, it’s mostly a waiting game. The setup is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer on those bigger, wind-affected days. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a quiet period.

Rusty

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