Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 16 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 18 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 14s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 13s period, SSE swell with 142 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 18 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 14s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 9s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.7m 13s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 11s period and expected on Monday (Sep 21) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 1ft (0.3m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 1ft (0.3m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next 16 days at Taylors Mistake are looking pretty flat and frustrating. There’s no proper surf on the horizon, just a long run of tiny, weak waves that won’t get most of us out of bed.
For the beginner-friendly setup here, the water’s sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 52°, so that’s a small comfort if you’re just having a paddle.
Right from Wednesday the 16th, it’s all tiny 0.7 ft of weak ESE swell, poor conditions, and only 13 units of combined energy – barely a bump on the water. Thursday and Friday don’t get much better, with 1 ft to 2 ft and combined energy still under 90. Friday afternoon (18th) offers a rare glassy moment, but the waves are ordinary and only worth a mention if you’re desperate for a longboard session. Saturday the 19th morning gets messy with a 12 mph cross-onshore, then clears up for a glassy afternoon with 1 ft – still just a dribble.
Sunday the 20th morning actually sees a gentle offshore breeze with 1 ft of ESE swell and 61 units of combined energy. It’s clean, but the waves are so small it’s barely surfable. That’s about the best we get for the whole run. After that, it’s more of the same: tiny swells, cross-onshore winds, and combined energy mostly in the teens and twenties. There’s a brief flicker on Friday the 25th afternoon with 2 ft of ENE swell and 198 units of combined energy, but it’s blown directly onshore – no good for a paddle, but a kite surfer might have a look.
From the 26th onward, we get a couple of clean or glassy mornings with 1 ft to 2 ft and combined energy around 60 to 101, but the waves are just too small and weak to get excited about. The last chance that’s even close to interesting is Monday the 28th morning – 2 ft of SE swell with 101 units of combined energy and glassy conditions, but it’s only for the most optimistic beginner on a foamie.
Honestly, this is a blank run that’s normal for the area when the swell is this absent. For a beginner-friendly spot like Taylors Mistake, the conditions would need at least a consistent 3 ft with clean winds to be worthwhile – and that just doesn’t show up. Forecasts can change, so don’t lose all hope, but for now, leave the board in the car and enjoy the beach.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Wed afternoon, min 5°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 6°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | E 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 14 | E 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | E 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | NE 9 | SSE 13 | SE 7 | SE 7 | E 11 | ESE 10 | SE 6 | ESE 8 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 10 | 12 | 24 | 20 | 40 | 84 | 81 | 93 | 72 | 41 | 42 | 23 | 22 | 142 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 14 | 12 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-on | cross-on | off | off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 8:38PM2.18m | 9:01AM2.28m | 9:27PM2.14m | 9:45AM2.23m | 10:14PM2.10m | 10:30AM2.17m | 10:58PM2.06m | 11:18AM2.12m | 11:44PM2.02m | 12:09PM2.10m | 00:32AM2.01m | 12:59PM2.10m | 1:22AM2.02m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:39AM0.65m | 3:13PM0.71m | 3:27AM0.73m | 4:02PM0.76m | 4:15AM0.79m | 4:51PM0.79m | 5:02AM0.80m | 5:41PM0.80m | 5:48AM0.79m | 6:29PM0.77m | 6:34AM0.75m | 7:15PM0.73m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  | |  |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | 6:17 | — | — | 6:19 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:21 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:24 | — |
mm | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 17 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
Feels °C | 12 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 5 | N 3 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | SE 6 | E 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | E 12 | ENE 4 | ESE 11 | SE 8 | ESE 11 | SSE 13 | SE 7 | SE 7 | NE 4 | SE 4 | SE 6 | ESE 8 |
| kJ | 2 | 1 | 24 | 20 | 5 | 84 | 81 | 93 | 72 | 13 | 42 | 18 | 11 | 142 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 5 | ENE 5 | ENE 5 | SSE 6 | ESE 9 | ESE 5 | NNE 3 | SSE 19 | SSE 15 | ESE 11 | ENE 5 | ESE 11 | ENE 9 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | E 11 | SE 6 | E 9 | E 11 |
| kJ | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 21 | 41 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 10 | E 12 | — | NE 5 | ESE 14 | S 16 | SE 5 | NE 4 | E 12 | NE 8 | NE 8 | ENE 10 | NE 9 | SSE 19 | S 17 | S 16 | SE 6 | ESE 10 | ESE 12 | SE 12 |
| kJ | 10 | 12 | — | 1 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 22 | 35 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 14 | 6 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | — | S 6 | SSE 3 | — | NE 6 | — | ENE 5 | NE 3 | N 3 | NNW 4 | WSW 3 | S 3 | SW 3 | — | NE 3 | WNW 3 | — | S 2 | N 2 |
| kJ | 16 | — | 38 | 3 | — | 2 | — | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 1 | — | 2 | 3 | — | 1 | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 35 | 22 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 207 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 31 | 89 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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