Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 22s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 15s period, ESE swell with 953 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 14 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 8s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 8s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.4m 15s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Tue 14th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 22s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
Alright, Rusty here. Gotta be honest with you, it’s a pretty grim start. The first week is mostly a write-off, so don’t be in a rush to paddle out. We’ve got a full week of flat, choppy, or just plain messy conditions. From July 12th through to the 19th, it’s a whole lot of nothing or very ordinary surf. The water temp is sitting at 51°F here at Taylors Mistake, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing unusual.
There’s a tiny glimmer on July 17th, Friday morning. The wind swings offshore from the WSW at 6 mph, and we get a clean 3ft E swell with a long 16-second period. The combined energy is decent at 325 (moderate), and it feels like real groundswell energy. The period is long enough to give good shape, and with the offshore wind, it’ll be clean. It’s not big, but it’s the first real surfable day.
The standout, and the best on offer, is July 18th, Saturday morning. The swell jumps to 3ft from the SSE with a very long 21-second period. The combined energy is 1029 (strong), and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the SW at 9 mph. The conditions are clean. That long period will make the waves pour in with real push, great for a point break or reef setup. Crowds are possible here, so get there early.
After that, July 21st, Tuesday morning, brings a 5ft NE swell, but it’s short period at 6 seconds. It’s only good for experts, and the wind is glassy, so it’ll be clean but fat and crumbly. Not the best.
July 25th, Saturday morning, is a massive 12ft ENE swell with a 12-second period and glassy conditions, but that’s too big for this break. It’s expert-only territory, and at that size, it’s a real washing machine. July 26th, Sunday morning, drops back to 6ft from the E with a 13-second period, cross-offshore wind, and clean conditions. That’s a solid, surfer-able size with good energy.
So, the call is: don’t bother until the 17th, and the 18th is the best day. The 26th is a solid backup. The rest is either too small, too windy, or too big.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Tue afternoon, min 5°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed afternoon, min 5°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 9 | NE 5 | E 9 | NNE 4 | NE 4 | NNE 8 | NE 4 | NNE 4 | E 12 | NE 7 | E 13 | E 14 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 | E 17 | E 16 | SSE 21 | SSE 18 | E 14 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 41 | 26 | 18 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 133 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 32 | 80 | 190 | 322 | 465 | 516 | 672 | 276 | 189 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on |
High Tide | 2:14PM2.51m | 2:46AM2.37m | 3:12PM2.58m | 3:43AM2.42m | 4:09PM2.63m | 4:38AM2.46m | 5:05PM2.63m | 5:33AM2.46m | 6:00PM2.60m | 6:29AM2.43m | 6:54PM2.53m | 7:25AM2.39m | 7:50PM2.45m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:35PM0.41m | 8:52AM0.32m | 9:32PM0.32m | 9:51AM0.25m | 10:29PM0.26m | 10:50AM0.19m | 11:25PM0.22m | 11:46AM0.15m | 00:21AM0.23m | 12:39PM0.15m | 1:14AM0.26m | 1:32PM0.22m | 2:06AM0.31m | ||||||||
 | |  | |  | | | | |  | |  | | | | | |  |  | | | |
 | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — |
 | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 4 | — | — |
Temp °C | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
Feels °C | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 5 | E 9 | E 9 | ESE 9 | E 10 | ENE 5 | NE 4 | NE 7 | ESE 4 | E 14 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 | E 17 | E 16 | E 15 | E 14 | E 14 |
| kJ | 41 | 26 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 32 | 80 | 190 | 322 | 465 | 516 | 357 | 268 | 189 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 11 | S 10 | E 9 | S 13 | S 9 | S 8 | E 15 | E 13 | NNW 3 | E 12 | E 13 | E 5 | E 4 | S 15 | S 15 | ENE 5 | SSE 18 | SSE 21 | SSE 18 | SSE 15 |
| kJ | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 672 | 276 | 146 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 13 | — | S 12 | S 20 | S 8 | E 10 | E 12 | S 19 | E 11 | E 17 | S 16 | SSW 10 | NE 4 | SSW 14 | S 24 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 46 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 69 | 182 | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NE 5 | N 3 | NNE 4 | NE 4 | NNE 8 | NE 4 | NNE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 4 | SW 3 | — | NNE 3 |
| kJ | — | — | 18 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 133 | 21 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 33 | 1 | — | 3 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 4 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 162 | 31 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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