Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. We’re looking at the shop for Taylors Mistake, and to be honest, the shelves are pretty bare for a good stretch. The first real action worth talking about isn’t until the very end of the month, so don’t get your hopes up for anything in the next week.

Overall Pattern

Right now the water temp is about 50°F – that’s pretty average for this time of year, just a hair warmer than normal. The next ten days or so are dominated by tiny swell, often less than a foot and a half, with periods that are either short or a bit jumbled. The combined energy is low, often in the double digits. There’s a big gap of nearly ten days where it’s essentially flat or junk. Then, finally, right at the tail end of the forecast, we get a pulse of real groundswell energy.

Sunday August 16th to Sunday August 23rd

From this Sunday through to the middle of the next week, it’s a struggle. The swell only gets above 2 feet a couple of times, and the wind is often a messy cross-off or onshore. Monday August 17th is the best of a poor bunch: 2 ft from the east at 9 seconds with a light offshore from the WSW in the morning. The energy is weak (101), and the surf is just ordinary. The real standout of this first week is Wednesday August 19th, when a long-period groundswell from the SSE at 15 seconds rolls in – but it’s only 2 ft. Energy jumps to a moderate 236, and with a light WSW offshore, it’s clean. That’s your best chance to get wet in the first week, but it’s more of a glide than a thrash. Thursday August 20th has a glassy morning, but the swell is just 1 ft from the SE with almost no energy (32). The rest of the week into the 23rd is mostly flat with tiny, wind-affected waves – not worth the rubber.

Monday August 24th to Thursday August 28th

This is the dead zone. Swell heights sit around 0.6-1 ft, periods aren’t doing anything, and energy readings are all under 50 – barely a ripple. The wind is cross-on or onshore, and there’s a strong 35 km/h WSW blow on the 28th that’ll churn things up. Nothing for paddle surfing here. If you’re into kite surfing, that windy day might be interesting, but for wave riding, it’s a bust.

Saturday August 29th to Sunday August 30th – Finally

On Saturday August 29th, it changes. The morning brings 1 ft from the SSE at a very long 19 seconds – serious groundswell. Energy is a moderate 156, with a light cross-off wind from the SW keeping it clean. The real standout is Saturday afternoon: 2 ft from the SSE at 18 seconds, glassy conditions with a slight air from the SSE, and the energy hitting a strong 207. That’s the best of the whole 16-day window. It’s small, but that long period will wrap into Taylors Mistake nicely – a spot that’s fairly exposed and likes an ENE angle. The SSE direction is a bit off, but the quality of the swell and the glassy wind make it the one to get excited about. Sunday August 30th morning has 1 ft at 16 seconds with more glassy conditions – another worthwhile session. After that, it fades back into tiny, cross-on junk.

The Verdict

The only real standout is Saturday August 29th afternoon and Sunday August 30th morning. The swell is small, so it’s not a day for the big dogs, but for a beginner-friendly spot like Taylors Mistake, the glassy conditions and long-period energy will give you the cleanest, most fun waves of the forecast. Crowds are a possibility, but that’s the trade-off for the best swell in weeks.

Rusty.

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