Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 pm 30 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
9.5° C
0.3° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 30 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 12s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 13s period, SE swell with 253 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 11s period with E swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 5s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.9m 13s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.1m 8s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 6AM (Fri 31st Jul)1.5ft (0.4m) 11s
Best Surf 6PM (Sat 1st Aug)3ft (0.9m) 12s
Most Powerful 6AM (Sun 2nd Aug)3ft (0.9m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G’day, Rusty here. Look, we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag ahead over the next two weeks at Taylors Mistake, so let’s break it down.

The forecast starts with a few days of pretty ordinary small surf, and you’ll be waiting until at least the weekend before anything really gets going. The best of the bunch is going to be Saturday afternoon, August 1st, and then Friday morning, August 7th. Those are the two standouts to pencil in.

For the first few days, Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st of July are pretty flat and messy. The swell is tiny, around 1 ft to 2 ft from the east, with a short period of 12 seconds. The wind is a moderate cross or cross-shore breeze, so it’s not clean, and the wave energy is weak (164 to 88). The water temp is about 49°, which is right on the mark for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Now, Saturday the 1st of August shows some promise. The morning is a bit average with rain showers and a 3 ft swell from the southeast, but the afternoon is where it’s at. We get a 3 ft swell from the same southeast direction, 12-second period, and a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the southwest. The combined energy is moderate (309), and the conditions are clean. This is a beginner-friendly break, so it’s a good chance for a paddle. The swell direction is not quite the optimum ENE, but it’s workable.

Sunday the 2nd of August starts clean with a light offshore, but the swell drops to 3 ft, so it’s only average. The rest of the week into Monday and Tuesday is small and windy, with a few clean spells but nothing special. Tuesday the 4th brings strong breezes (28 mph) from the southwest, so even with the cross-offshore wind, it’s not going to be fun.

Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th of August are small and clean, with a 2 ft swell and glassy conditions on Thursday morning (3 mph from the southwest), but the wave energy is low (90). It’s surfable, but only just.

Now, here’s the standout: Friday morning, the 7th of August. The swell jumps to 4 ft from the SSE, with a 9-second period, and it’s nearly glassy (3 mph from the northeast). The combined energy is moderate (295), and the conditions are clean. For a beginner spot like Taylors Mistake, this is your best shot. The swell is a bit of a short period, but the glassy wind makes up for it. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so expect a few locals out.

After that, the surf fades again. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th of August run into small, cross-onshore slop, with the swell dropping to 3 ft and then 2 ft. The second week, from the 10th to the 14th, is mostly small and weak, with a few clean spells but nothing that gets the heart racing. The 13th of August afternoon sees a possible 6 ft swell from the ENE, but it’s a short period (7 seconds) and the wind is cross-offshore, so it’s a bit wild and more for the experienced. The energy is strong (474), but it’s marginal for a beginner break.

That’s the picture. Get out there on Saturday afternoon or Friday morning the 7th, and you’ll have a decent time.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 4°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WSW on Fri afternoon, calm by Sun morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 6°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light.

Thu
30
Friday
31
Saturday
1
Sunday
2
Monday
3
Tuesday
4
Wednesday
5
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.6
E
12
0.9
NNE
8
0.4
E
12
0.4
E
11
0.3
ESE
15
0.9
SE
13
0.9
SE
12
0.6
ESE
13
0.8
SE
13
0.7
SE
13
0.6
SE
12
0.4
SE
12
0.3
SSE
15
0.2
SSE
15
0.6
SSE
14
0.6
SSE
16
0.5
SE
12
0.5
SE
11
0.5
SE
11
0.4
SE
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
101
117
42
40
44
249
205
120
205
167
89
35
47
21
123
160
67
60
57
38
Wind (km/h)
25
N
30
N
20
NNW
20
W
35
SW
25
WSW
15
SW
5
WNW
5
WNW
10
ENE
10
W
10
WSW
10
W
15
SW
15
SSW
15
SW
15
SW
5
W
5
NE
10
NNE
Wind State
cross
cross
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
glassy
cross-on
off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-on
cross-on
High Tide
5:09PM2.19m
5:29AM2.06m
5:49PM2.20m
6:13AM2.06m
6:29PM2.20m
6:58AM2.07m
7:12PM2.19m
7:45AM2.10m
8:00PM2.19m
8:31AM2.14m
8:52PM2.18m
9:19AM2.19m
9:46PM2.19m
Low Tide
11:27PM0.62m
11:37AM0.54m
00:09AM0.57m
12:17PM0.51m
00:50AM0.53m
12:59PM0.50m
1:31AM0.52m
1:42PM0.51m
2:15AM0.53m
2:30PM0.54m
3:03AM0.54m
3:22PM0.58m
part cloud
clear
cloud
part cloud
heavy rain
rain showers
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:43
7:41
7:41
7:39
7:39
7:37
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:25
5:27
5:28
5:29
5:30
5:30
5:31
 mm
13
3
Temp °C
14
12
13
13
5
6
7
7
10
9
8
12
15
9
8
8
7
7
7
6
Feels °C
8
6
7
8
-6
-1
2
3
6
5
5
9
11
4
4
3
2
5
4
2
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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