
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 6 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 7 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period, E swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 11s period, E swell with 595 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 9s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.6m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 15s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Tue 7th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Tue 7th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for the next couple of weeks.
Right now, things are pretty quiet. The swell we’ve got is a bit weak and the energy is modest, at best. We’re looking at *Taylors Mistake* as the main spot, but don't get too excited just yet. The water temp is sitting at 51°F, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year, nothing wild.
Tuesday morning (July 7th) is a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a 5ft easterly swell, but the wind is a light cross-shore, so it's messy. The energy’s only around 383. It’s not worth stressing over. By Tuesday afternoon, the wind swings cross-offshore and it cleans right up. That 5ft east swell starts looking better, and the energy stays moderate at 369. It's surfable, but not a standout.
Wednesday morning (July 8th) is the real winner of this early run. The swell height is still 5ft from the east, but the period bumps up to 11 seconds, which gives it more shape and push. The energy hits 534, and with that light cross-offshore wind, it’ll be clean. This is a good session for a beginner-friendly wave, but with that longer period, it might wrap in a little better than usual. Wednesday afternoon sees the wind shift onshore a bit, making it choppier, so morning is definitely the call.
Thursday morning (July 9th) is another solid one. The swell nudges up to 5ft from the east with an 11-second period. The wind is a moderate cross-offshore, so it stays clean, and the energy is moderate at 584. It’s a decent option.
Things taper off from Friday (July 10th) through the weekend. The swell drops below 4ft by Friday afternoon and keeps fading. By Saturday afternoon (July 11th), it gets glassy but tiny, with only 3ft of east swell and energy down to 146. It’s skinny out there. Sunday (July 12th) we’re looking at onshore wind and waves dropping to 2ft. There’s a real lull here for the next several days.
From Monday (July 13th) through to Wednesday (July 15th), it’s pretty flat. Swell heights are under 3ft, periods are short, and the energy is weak. There’s nothing to get excited about. This is a proper gap with no real surf on offer.
Now, looking further ahead, Thursday morning (July 16th) we see a pulse of swell coming back. It’s 4ft from the east, but the period is a long 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and the energy jumps to 601. The wind is clean, cross-offshore, so it’ll be glassy. This is the best looking window in the second week. It’s still a couple of weeks away, so keep an eye on it.
Saturday (July 18th) brings the biggest swell of the forecast: 6ft to 6ft from the ESE, with energy rocketing up to 1960 and 1426. That’s some serious power. The period drops to 11-14 seconds, so it’s a mix. The wind stays cross-offshore, but at 16 mph, it’ll be a bit lumpy. This is a more powerful, expert-friendly wave. Not for the faint-hearted.
Sunday morning (July 19th) is the real highlight of the whole outlook. 5ft from the ESE with a 12-second period, light offshore wind, and energy at 694. The conditions are clean, the waves have shape, and it’s not as massive as Saturday. This is the best session on offer, hands down. After that, the swell fades quickly through Monday and Tuesday (July 20-21st), with onshore winds and dropping energy.
Overall, the first week is a slow burn with a few clean, small days. The second week has a couple of stronger pulses, especially Sunday July 19th. Keep your eyes peeled.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed afternoon, min 4°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Mild temperatures (max 8°C on Sat afternoon, min 4°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | NE 5 | E 9 | NE 4 | NNE 4 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
318 | 341 | 349 | 449 | 442 | 384 | 584 | 486 | 451 | 284 | 247 | 192 | 156 | 121 | 133 | 94 | 45 | 45 | 17 | 19 | 27 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | on | glassy | cross-on | glassy | glassy |
High Tide | 9:45AM2.08m | 10:08PM2.14m | 10:33AM2.14m | 10:59PM2.17m | 11:24AM2.22m | 11:51PM2.21m | 12:20PM2.31m | 00:47AM2.25m | 1:17PM2.41m | 1:46AM2.30m | 2:14PM2.51m | 2:46AM2.37m | 3:12PM2.58m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 3:45PM0.60m | 4:21AM0.57m | 4:39PM0.62m | 5:14AM0.55m | 5:37PM0.62m | 6:07AM0.50m | 6:38PM0.58m | 7:00AM0.45m | 7:38PM0.50m | 7:54AM0.38m | 8:35PM0.41m | 8:52AM0.32m | 9:32PM0.32m | ||||||||
8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | |
— | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
Feels °C | 8 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | ENE 5 | ENE 5 | E 9 | E 9 |
318 | 341 | 349 | 449 | 442 | 384 | 584 | 486 | 451 | 284 | 247 | 192 | 156 | 121 | 133 | 94 | 45 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 14 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 15 | SE 7 | SSW 13 | S 18 | — | S 21 | S 14 | S 18 | S 16 | S 16 | S 20 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | S 15 | ENE 3 | S 13 | E 9 | E 9 | — | ENE 7 |
119 | 104 | 16 | 55 | 55 | — | 35 | 129 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 14 | — | 5 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | S 14 | S 19 | SSW 18 | — | S 22 | S 19 | S 17 | — | S 16 | S 15 | S 9 | — | — | S 14 | — | S 11 | S 10 | S 13 | S 12 |
— | — | 4 | 29 | 61 | — | 9 | 117 | 217 | — | 77 | 70 | 73 | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | SE 8 | SSE 7 | SE 6 | — | SSE 7 | S 15 | S 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | NE 4 | NE 5 | NNW 2 | NE 4 | NNE 4 |
65 | 28 | 113 | 85 | — | 91 | 4 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 19 | 27 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 181 | 151 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 31 | 4 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.










