Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 28 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 8s period, ENE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 13s period, SSE swell with 273 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 28 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 8s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.9m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 13s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Fri 28th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Tue 1st Sep) | 3ft (0.9m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Oi, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks down at Taylors Mistake.
Straight up, I gotta be honest with ya – this 16-day stretch is lookin’ pretty grim. There’s a long dry spell right off the bat. From Friday the 28th of August right through to Sunday the 30th, the surf is tiny and grovelly, mostly under 1ft, and the winds are all over the shop. The water’s at 50°, which is about what you’d expect for this time of year – no surprises there. Really, it’s a write-off for the first few days.
Monday the 31st of August sees a bit of a pulse, with a small 2ft swell from the SSE and a long 16-second period. The combined wave energy is up at 148 (moderate), so there’s some push there, but the wind is howlin’ out of the NW at 25 mph. That’s gonna mess it up. Tuesday the 1st of September has the strongest energy reading of the whole run (275) with a 3ft SSE swell and a 13-second period, but again, a fresh breeze is killin’ it. Those days are more of a “watch from the car park” vibe.
Wednesday the 2nd of September morning offers a glimmer. A 2ft SE swell with an 11-second period and light offshore winds from the W. It’s clean and surfable, but conditionally ordinary. It’s the best of a bad lot though.
The real standout – and I use that term loosely – is on Tuesday the 8th of September. In the morning, we see a 5ft swell from the NNE with an 8-second period and a moderate breeze from the NW. The combined energy hits 388 (strong), so there’s weight behind it. At 5ft, it’s still okay for most surfers, though beginners might find it a bit much. The direction (NNE) is a bit off the optimum ENE, so it won’t be perfect, but it’s the only real swell in the window. The wind is cross-off, so it’ll be reasonably clean. If you’re keen, that’s your window. Tuesday the 8th of September morning. Expect crowds though – Taylors Mistake does get busy when there’s a pulse, so get there early.
After that, it’s back to the dust. The rest of the second week is tiny or windy, with nothing else worth paddlin’ out for. A real flat spell for the Mistake.
This is a proper winter lull. It’s a bit bleak, but it won’t stay this way forever – forecasts can flip.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 4°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri night, fresh winds from the WNW by Sun morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 5°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Mon night, calm by Wed night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | NE 8 | ENE 8 | SE 13 | NE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 16 | SSE 17 | E 10 | SSE 13 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 254 | 169 | 62 | 26 | 44 | 29 | 11 | 6 | 61 | 59 | 146 | 113 | 2 | 273 | 110 | 59 | 60 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 42 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | off | off | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | glassy | glassy | glassy | glassy |
High Tide | 4:35PM2.22m | 4:55AM2.13m | 5:15PM2.25m | 5:40AM2.16m | 5:58PM2.26m | 6:27AM2.20m | 6:45PM2.26m | 7:16AM2.24m | 7:37PM2.25m | 8:07AM2.29m | 8:33PM2.24m | 8:59AM2.32m | 9:30PM2.23m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:24AM0.54m | 10:51PM0.55m | 11:06AM0.50m | 11:34PM0.51m | 11:48AM0.47m | 00:17AM0.49m | 12:32PM0.47m | 1:01AM0.48m | 1:19PM0.49m | 1:48AM0.50m | 2:11PM0.53m | 2:39AM0.51m | 3:09PM0.56m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | |  |  | | | | | | |  | | | | | | |
 | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — |
 | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:04 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | ENE 8 | NE 8 | ENE 8 | SSE 10 | NE 8 | ENE 7 | NW 4 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 16 | SSE 17 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | N 4 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 13 |
| kJ | 23 | 169 | 62 | 26 | 10 | 29 | 11 | 7 | 61 | 59 | 146 | 113 | 2 | 2 | 110 | 59 | 60 | 7 | 28 | 27 | 42 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SE 11 | SSE 11 | N 3 | S 10 | ESE 12 | SE 12 | ENE 7 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | E 10 | NW 4 | — | — | — | NE 4 | SE 14 | SE 11 | ESE 4 | E 4 | SSE 10 |
| kJ | — | 20 | 12 | 2 | 96 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | 2 | 8 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | E 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | SE 13 | SE 10 | S 15 | SE 12 | ENE 8 | E 7 | — | E 10 | — | — | — | SE 14 | E 10 | SSE 13 | NE 4 | S 15 | ENE 3 |
| kJ | — | 4 | 19 | 17 | 44 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | — | 33 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | NNW 3 | — | NNW 4 | ENE 8 | NW 3 | NNW 3 | WSW 3 | SW 3 | W 3 | NNW 3 | SSW 13 | S 13 | SSE 13 | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | — | SE 4 | — | — |
| kJ | 254 | 7 | — | 13 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 2605 | 670 | 273 | — | 2 | 13 | — | 10 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 52 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 4 | 31 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 583 | 181 | 446 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 4 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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