Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch of the coast is looking pretty flat and quiet for the next couple of weeks. There’s a bit of swell kicking around this weekend, but it’s nothing to write home about, and we’ve got a long dry spell ahead. We’ll look at the good windows, but keep your expectations honest.

The first real chance to get wet is Saturday the 12th of September. Taylors Mistake is the only spot on the board, and it’s a beginner-friendly wave that’s fairly consistent. Early morning, we’ve got a light cross-off breeze from the SSW at 6 mph, and the surf’s pushing 2ft from the SSE. The swell period is a solid 16 seconds, so there’s some proper groundswell energy in the water, but the combined energy is only reading 236 – that’s weak, honestly. It’ll be clean, but very ordinary. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Saturday afternoon the wind swings onshore from the ENE, which kills it a bit, but the swell bumps up slightly to 3ft, still from the SSE with 16-second period and combined energy of 308. It’s marginal, but it might be your best bet for the whole period.

Sunday the 13th drops off fast. The swell fades to 1ft, the energy is down to 73, and the morning is clean with a light cross-off but it’s just too small. Afternoon goes onshore and poor. Then Monday the 14th through to Wednesday the 16th is a write-off – we’re looking at tiny, waist-high slop at best, with no energy behind it. There’s a faint pulse on Wednesday morning with 3ft from the north, but it’s a short-period windswell, and the afternoon gets blown out with 16 mph cross-off winds. Not worth paddling out for.

From Thursday the 17th through to the 24th, we’re in a proper flat spell. No recommendations at all. The swell bottoms out, energy readings are in the low double digits, and it’s just dead. If you’re itching, you’re better off doing something else. A few mornings glass off, but there’s literally nothing to ride.

Now, there is one standout hidden in this run – it’s not until Friday the 25th of September. The morning is still ordinary, but the afternoon is where the ocean wakes up. We’ve got 2ft of swell from the SSE, but the period jumps to 22 seconds. That is a very long period groundswell, and the combined energy reading blows up to 534 – that’s the only strong energy in the whole forecast. The problem is the wind is onshore from the east at 9 mph, so it’s not going to be clean. Still, long-period swell like that will put some proper push through the lineup, and for a beginner break like Taylors Mistake, it might actually be too much juice. That’s a big day for experts only, and even then, the onshore wind is going to make it lumpy. Honestly, it’s the only real wave of the fortnight, but it’s messy.

The run continues flat into the final weekend. The 26th has a small cleanup of 2ft from the SE, but the energy is weak and winds are onshore. The 27th is glassy but dead – 0.7ft and nothing doing.

So, bottom line: if you’re desperate, get out early on Saturday the 12th. If you’ve got patience, keep an eye on the 25th afternoon, but that’s a promise of size, not quality. Otherwise, the boards stay in the car. Forecasts can always change, but this coastline is locked into a flat pattern for a while.

Rusty out.

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