Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 17 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period, SE swell with 418 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 9s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.6m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 15s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 13s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Mon 17th Aug) | 2ft (0.6m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 15s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming our way.
To be straight with you, the next week and a bit is looking pretty grim. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and wind-affected waves. The first real glimmer of something surfable doesn’t show up until Tuesday the 25th of August, and even then it’s a slow build. The near-term is a write-off, so don’t bother waxing up just yet.
Right now, Monday the 17th, we’ve got tiny 2 ft waves from the east at Taylors Mistake, but the wind is light and offshore from the WSW, so it’s clean. The combined swell energy is weak (101). Water temp is sitting at 50°, which is about average for this time of year. It’s surfable but very ordinary—nothing to get excited about.
Tuesday and Wednesday are a bust. Swell drops to 1 ft – 2 ft, winds get messy, and the energy is almost non-existent. Thursday the 20th morning turns glassy with a slight air from the WNW, but the swell is a pathetic 1 ft. Not worth paddling for.
We then hit a dead zone. From Friday the 21st right through to Monday the 24th, we’re looking at 0.7 ft to 1 ft waves with poor conditions. A few days of clean, glassy mornings, but there’s just no power. The combined energy sits below 100, meaning it’s a flat spell. A dry run.
Now, here’s the one that might get your attention. Tuesday the 25th of August afternoon: the swell starts to wake up. We’ve got 2 ft waves from the SSE, with a very long period of 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy hits a moderate 314. The wind is a gentle cross-off from the SW, keeping things clean. This is the standout of the whole outlook. The long period means longer lulls between sets, making the paddle out easier, and at Taylors Mistake, that kind of energy can bend nicely around the point. Expect good surf conditions—finally something to paddle for. Keep in mind, this is more than a week away, so it’s promising but not locked in.
Wednesday the 26th sees that swell drop back with a cross-on breeze, and the energy fades. The rest of the window into late August and early September is small and inconsistent—0.3 ft to 2 ft, with clean conditions but no real push.
The bottom line: If you’re itching for a wave, hold off until the 25th of August afternoon. That’s your best bet. The rest is a wait-and-see.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue morning, min 4°C on Mon morning). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Tue morning, calm by Wed night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 7°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 9 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 15 | SSE 15 | SE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | SSE 17 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SE 12 | E 15 | E 14 | NNE 4 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 78 | 61 | 81 | 48 | 18 | 418 | 89 | 57 | 28 | 16 | 15 | 28 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 31 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | glassy | on | cross-on | cross | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 8:16PM2.30m | 8:47AM2.32m | 9:10PM2.24m | 9:37AM2.30m | 10:01PM2.19m | 10:25AM2.27m | 10:50PM2.15m | 11:12AM2.23m | 11:37PM2.10m | 12:01PM2.19m | 00:24AM2.07m | 12:51PM2.17m | 1:12AM2.05m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:58PM0.43m | 2:26AM0.44m | 2:52PM0.56m | 3:17AM0.54m | 3:46PM0.66m | 4:08AM0.64m | 4:41PM0.74m | 4:58AM0.71m | 5:34PM0.79m | 5:45AM0.76m | 6:25PM0.80m | 6:29AM0.77m | 7:12PM0.80m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | |  | |  | | | | | | |  | | |  | | | |
 | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — |
 | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
Feels °C | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | E 9 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 15 | SE 9 | SE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | SSE 7 | SSE 16 | ENE 4 | ENE 3 | E 15 | ENE 4 | E 13 | NE 5 | NE 6 | SE 3 |
| kJ | 78 | 61 | 81 | 48 | 18 | 418 | 64 | 57 | 28 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | SSE 6 | SE 9 | E 14 | E 12 | SSE 15 | SSE 14 | SE 8 | SE 7 | SSE 8 | SSE 17 | ENE 3 | SSE 14 | SE 12 | SE 10 | E 14 | S 10 | E 13 | E 13 | S 15 |
| kJ | 23 | 21 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 24 | 89 | 41 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 19 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 15 | S 13 | SE 4 | — | E 12 | ESE 12 | E 10 | ESE 13 | SE 11 | E 13 | E 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 10 | S 16 | NE 8 | NE 8 | E 13 |
| kJ | 4 | 4 | 84 | 2 | — | 12 | 15 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | W 2 | WSW 3 | S 11 | SSW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | — | — | — | N 3 | NNW 3 | NNE 4 | N 3 | WNW 4 | NNE 6 |
| kJ | — | — | 1 | 6 | 235 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | 8 | 3 | 31 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 31 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 593 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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