Taylors Mistake Surf Break

Lat Long: 43.58° S 172.78° E

Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 5 am 09 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Taylors Mistake sea temperature is
11.1°C
1.9° 

Taylors Mistake surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period, ENE swell with offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 12 Sep, 6PM (local time) - 2ft (0.6m), 16s period, SSE swell with 177 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with ENE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:

The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.6m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Sep 12) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.2m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 10) at 9PM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Wed 9th Sep)3.5ft (1.0m) 8s
Best Surf 9PM (Wed 9th Sep)3.5ft (1.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 6PM (Sat 12th Sep)2ft (0.6m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Grab a coffee, mate, because the outlook for Taylors Mistake for the next 16 days is a real bummer. We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak surf, and there’s no real standout session to get fired up about. The first few days are a washout, and it doesn’t get much better.

Right off the bat, the water’s sitting at about 52°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing.

The first bit of action comes on the morning of Saturday, September 12th. A long-period groundswell from the SSE with a period of 17 seconds is pushing a combined energy of 185 (moderate), but the swell height is only about 2ft. It’s a tease. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s messy. The afternoon glass-off is a better bet, with the swell holding at 2ft and the energy bumping up to 226 (moderate). That’s likely the best of the whole period – glassy, clean conditions, but the waves will be small and the long period means inconsistent sets. This spot is a beginner's wave anyway, so that 2ft is about perfect for a learner.

Sunday the 13th keeps the same SSE swell, but it drops to 1ft with an 11-second period. The morning is glassy, with energy at 80 (weak). It’s surfable, but you’ll be scratching for nothing. The afternoon turns onshore and gets ugly.

After that, it’s a long, flat gap. From Monday the 14th all the way through to the 23rd of September, the swell is pathetic – think 0.3ft to 1ft – with combined energy mostly under 50 (weak). There are a few clean, glassy mornings, like the 17th and 18th, but with barely any swell, it’s just a flat ocean. The 21st of September has a completely glassy morning with a 2ft ENE swell, but the period is a shocking 6 seconds, so it’s just weak, wind slop.

The last day, Thursday the 24th of September, sees a long-period SSE swell (17 seconds) return, but it’s only 0.7ft with a combined energy of 42 (weak). The wind is a light cross-onshore, so not even clean.

Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, Taylors Mistake is a dead loss for a real surf. If you’re desperate for a paddle on a glassy day, the afternoon of the 12th is your only real window, but keep your expectations on the floor. I’d be checking other spots or just taking a break. This is a classic case of a long period swell that’s just too small to do anything with.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Light rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 4°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 6°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.

Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
ENE
9
1.1
ENE
9
0.8
ENE
8
0.5
ENE
8
0.4
ENE
8
0.2
SSE
19
0.2
E
8
0.2
E
8
0.2
SSE
16
0.5
SSE
17
0.5
SSE
17
0.5
SSE
16
0.4
SSE
11
0.4
SSE
12
0.4
SE
12
0.4
SE
11
0.4
SE
11
0.2
SSE
10
0.1
E
12
0.1
E
11
0.8
N
4
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
82
176
90
36
20
36
5
5
27
166
164
144
51
58
39
33
31
10
3
3
18
Wind (km/h)
10
NE
20
ENE
5
NW
20
SW
20
SSW
5
WNW
10
NNE
5
WSW
5
E
10
N
5
ESE
0
WSW
5
WNW
15
E
5
N
5
NNE
5
ENE
5
WNW
10
NW
20
NNW
30
N
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
glassy
on
cross
glassy
glassy
glassy
on
glassy
glassy
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
High Tide
2:31PM2.40m
2:57AM2.31m
3:23PM2.40m
3:48AM2.32m
4:15PM2.39m
4:41AM2.32m
5:07PM2.36m
5:37AM2.32m
6:00PM2.33m
6:33AM2.32m
6:53PM2.28m
7:26AM2.33m
7:46PM2.23m
Low Tide
8:45PM0.33m
9:10AM0.29m
9:38PM0.33m
10:05AM0.28m
10:32PM0.34m
10:58AM0.30m
11:26PM0.36m
11:50AM0.36m
00:17AM0.40m
12:41PM0.45m
1:05AM0.46m
1:32PM0.55m
1:52AM0.55m
clear
clear
part cloud
light rain
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:33
6:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:09
6:10
6:12
6:13
6:15
6:15
6:16
 mm
3
Temp °C
9
10
9
6
9
7
8
13
9
8
11
8
10
10
9
11
13
11
16
18
14
Feels °C
5
5
7
1
4
4
6
11
6
5
8
6
7
6
6
9
11
9
13
14
7
  • Map Icons:
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.

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