Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the next 16 days, and I'll be upfront – it's a real patchy forecast. We've got a few proper days, but a lot of time where you'll be staring at a flat, messy ocean.

Right off the bat, the first few days are tiny. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th have barely enough swell to push a foamie along. The water’s about 50°F, which is average for the season. The first tiny glimmer is Thursday afternoon at Taylors Mistake (Christchurch), with a glassy 0.8ft of SE swell, but it's still super small.

Then we fall off a cliff. Friday the 7th through Monday the 10th are basically flat, with waves around 1ft and onshore junk. That's a solid four-day stretch with no real surf to chase. You're better off doing something else.

Alright, here's the first proper standout. On Sunday the 9th of August, the morning is looking chunky. We've got a 8ft NE swell (moderate energy at 789), but the period is only 8 seconds. With a light cross-offshore wind, it'll be clean, but this is a powerful, short-period wave. At this size, it's strictly for the experienced crew. It'll be dumping on the sandbanks, so it's not for beginners. The direction is ENE, which is right in the spot's wheelhouse.

After that, it's flat again. The 10th and 11th are poor, and the 12th gets messy with strong cross-shore winds. If you're into kiting, that day might be more your thing than paddling.

The next real green light is Saturday the 15th of August. The morning has a 5ft NE swell with a light cross-off breeze, and the afternoon turns absolutely glassy with a clean 5ft ENE swell and the period stretching out to 10 seconds. The energy is building (450). This is the day to circle on the calendar. It could get a little crowded, but when it's like this, it's worth fighting for a wave.

The 16th and 17th have some waves, but the wind gets a bit tricky. Monday the 17th morning does have a decent 4ft SE groundswell with a solid 13-second period and glassy conditions. That's a nice, clean swell that'll wrap into the point.

The final week looks pretty lackluster, with waves mostly in the 2ft to 3ft range and ordinary conditions. The morning of Wednesday the 19th has a clean 3ft SW swell, but it's nothing to get too hyped about.

So, the bottom line: get out there for the Sunday the 9th morning if you're an expert, and definitely don't miss Saturday the 15th. It's a way off, so we'll have to keep an eye on it, but that's the one that could be the best of the whole stretch.

Rusty.

Read more