Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Look, I’ve scanned the charts for this stretch and I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days are a real struggle. There’s no standout session, no must-paddle moment. The whole period is a flat, weak mess, and you’ll be waiting a long time for anything rideable. We’ve got a gap of nearly a week of zero surf on offer before we even see a hint of a wave, and even then it’s ordinary.

Let’s start with the only break we’ve got to work with: Taylors Mistake. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, fairly exposed, and fairly consistent. The water is sitting at 52°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – about 3°F above average, so you’ll notice it’s a bit more pleasant on the skin.

Right now, Monday September 7th is a write-off. Cloudy, glassy wind, but the swell is tiny at 3 ft from the ESE with a short period of 5 seconds – combined energy is a weak 49. That’s barely a ripple. Monday afternoon is even worse at 1 ft. Tuesday is the same story – 2 ft glassy morning, but the period is just 4 seconds and energy is 14. We’re not even getting started.

Wednesday September 9th sees a tiny bump: 2 ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds in the morning, but the wind is cross-onshore and the energy is still only 84. By afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph cross-onshore, and the swell hits 4 ft with moderate energy of 190, but it’s choppy and messy. Not worth it.

Thursday through to Sunday September 13th is all tiny – 2 ft down to 0.3 ft – with poor conditions. Saturday September 12th morning shows a glimmer: 2 ft from the SSE with a 12-second period, offshore wind from the west, and clean conditions. Energy is 124 – moderate. But it’s still small and the vibe is “surfable waves but very ordinary.” That’s the best we’ve got for the first week, and it’s not saying much.

Sunday September 13th afternoon goes glassy with 1 ft from the SSE, period 13 seconds, energy 74 – clean but tiny. Still, ordinary.

We then hit another dry spell. Monday September 14th to Tuesday September 15th is all under 1.0 ft with weak energy. Wednesday September 16th morning pops up with 2 ft from the NE, period 9 seconds, offshore wind from the WNW, clean, energy 71 – again, surfable but ordinary. Then it drops again.

The second week keeps the same sad tune. Thursday September 17th through Sunday September 20th is all 0.7 ft to 1 ft – tiny, weak, and often wind-affected. The best of this poor run is Monday September 21st: 1 ft from the SSE with a 17-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell, but it’s only ankle to knee-high at best. The energy is moderate at 121, and the wind is light and cross-offshore, keeping it clean. Still, this is a long-period swell at a beach break, which means it’ll break straight and be tricky. It’s a tease.

Tuesday September 22nd morning is similar – 1 ft, 11-second period, clean, energy 56 – but by afternoon the onshore wind kicks in and it’s gone.

Honestly, there’s no standout here. The whole 16 days is a flat spell with very weak combined energy – most values are under 100, a few hit low triple digits. If you’re a beginner, Taylors Mistake might give you a few tiny, clean waves on Saturday September 12th morning or Monday September 21st, but don’t expect much. The swells are never over 4 ft, so it’s never too big. The wind is often light or offshore, which keeps the surface clean, but there’s just no power.

For kite surfers, the setups are too small and weak to even be interesting. Just a flat, blank run. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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