Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 13s period, E swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 25 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 17s period, ESE swell with 530 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 21 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 14s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 4s. Another secondary swell of 0.7m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Sat 25th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk it in feet and Fahrenheit. The water’s sitting at 50°F, pretty average for this time of year, nothing wild.
The first few days are a slog. Monday afternoon, July 20th, brings a 2ft SSE swell with a long 19-second period, energy is moderate at 361, but it’s cross-on and just marginal. Not worth the hassle.
Tuesday, July 21st morning, the swell drops to 1ft SE at 14 seconds, energy only 75, but the wind is glassy. Surfable, but really ordinary. That afternoon is even smaller at 1ft. From Wednesday, July 22nd, through Saturday, July 25th, it’s flat and poor. A solid 4-day gap with nothing to ride.
Sunday, July 26th afternoon shows a little life: 2ft easterly swell at 14 seconds, energy of 162, clean cross-off winds. It’s surfable, but nothing special. Monday, July 27th morning is similar – 3ft east swell, 14-second period, energy 229, clean. But that afternoon picks up to 3ft with 30 km/h winds, energy jumps to 421 (strong), but it’s too windy.
Tuesday, July 28th has a consistent 3ft east swell, 14-second period, energy 372, but it’s a bit lumpy with cross-shore winds.
The best call is Wednesday, July 29th morning. Taylors Mistake has a 3ft east swell at 13 seconds, energy 356, and light cross-off winds from the north. Clean conditions. The swell direction matches the optimum. It’s a fairly consistent break, but crowds can show up. Small waves, but clean and glassy – that’s your window.
After that, it’s quiet until Sunday, August 2nd. Both that morning and afternoon look good: 3ft east-southeast swell, 13-14 seconds, energy hitting 294 and 408, with light offshore or cross-off winds from the WNW. Clean, glassy. That’s over a week out, so the forecast might shift, but it’s a promising one.
Monday, August 3rd drops off, and Tuesday, August 4th has glassy 1ft waves, but it’s tiny. A few bright spots, but you’ll need to be patient.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 24mm), heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 4°C on Fri night). Mainly fresh winds. | |||||||||||||||||||
Mon 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 19 | SSE 16 | SE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | E 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 | NE 4 | ENE 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 5 | NE 8 | ENE 8 | SE 9 | E 18 | ESE 16 | E 15 | E 14 | E 13 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 312 | 107 | 46 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 39 | 18 | 26 | 17 | 225 | 85 | 155 | 150 | 170 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | off | glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on |
High Tide | 9:41PM2.29m | 10:09AM2.28m | 10:34PM2.23m | 11:00AM2.26m | 11:24PM2.18m | 11:52AM2.24m | 00:13AM2.14m | 12:42PM2.23m | 1:02AM2.11m | 1:30PM2.22m | 1:51AM2.09m | 2:18PM2.22m | 2:39AM2.08m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:20PM0.47m | 3:53AM0.47m | 4:17PM0.60m | 4:46AM0.55m | 5:15PM0.70m | 5:37AM0.63m | 6:12PM0.76m | 6:24AM0.69m | 7:05PM0.79m | 7:08AM0.73m | 7:52PM0.79m | 7:52AM0.75m | 8:36PM0.78m | |||||||
 |  |  | |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | |  |  | | | |
 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:48 | — | — |
 | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12 | — | — | 5 | 7 | — | — |
Temp °C | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
Feels °C | 7 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 19 | SSE 16 | NE 4 | NE 4 | SSE 11 | NE 5 | E 11 | E 11 | NE 4 | ENE 4 | E 11 | E 12 | NE 4 | ENE 8 | SE 9 | S 10 | ESE 16 | E 15 | E 14 | E 13 |
| kJ | 312 | 107 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 85 | 155 | 150 | 170 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | SE 14 | SSE 12 | ENE 4 | E 11 | NE 4 | SE 12 | E 12 | E 12 | S 10 | S 9 | NE 8 | N 3 | ENE 8 | S 17 | NE 8 | ESE 4 | ESE 4 | S 14 |
| kJ | 49 | 46 | 46 | 31 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | SE 10 | SE 10 | ESE 11 | S 11 | S 11 | ESE 11 | S 14 | E 12 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | S 16 | S 16 | S 15 | E 10 | S 11 |
| kJ | — | — | 25 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 83 | 79 | 4 | 9 | 82 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 2 | NE 4 | N 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 5 | N 3 | SSW 2 | — | E 18 | ESE 5 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 39 | 7 | 3 | — | 225 | 26 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 31 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 213 | 233 | 162 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 32 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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