Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 8 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 11s period, E swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 11s period, E swell with 448 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 11s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 11s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.4m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 09) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Thu 9th Jul) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Taylors Mistake.
We start off with a pretty flat patch. Thursday the 9th has some 5ft easterly swell at 11 seconds, but the wind is a messy cross-off and the reports are marginal. Water temp is about average for the season. Not worth the paddle.
Friday the 10th is a bit cleaner. The swell drops to 4ft, still east at 11 seconds, with a light cross-off out of the WSW. The wave energy is moderate at 317. It’s clean, but unremarkable. Saturday the 11th morning is the best of the early days – a 3ft easterly swell with a glassy offshore breeze from the WSW. The energy is weak at 154, but it’s clean. Saturday afternoon is glassy with a 2ft east swell at 9 seconds, but the energy is only 110. Surfable, but ordinary.
Then we hit a long dry spell. From Sunday the 12th through to Wednesday the 16th, it’s tiny, choppy, and onshore. Don’t even think about it. There’s a brief moment on Tuesday the 14th with a 3ft northerly swell and glassy conditions, but the energy is weak at 184 and the direction is wrong for the break. Just a tease.
The real standout is Saturday the 18th. The morning session brings a 5ft easterly swell at 14 seconds, with a light WSW cross-off breeze. The combined energy is 947 – that’s moderate to strong. The conditions are clean and the forecast is for very good surf. This is the one. The east groundswell at 14 seconds is going to wrap in nicely and give you some proper shape. Best on offer.
Sunday the 19th is for experts only. The swell jumps to 12ft from the ENE, with a 10-second period. The energy is massive at 2777. The wind is glassy offshore in the morning, but this is way too big for the average surfer. The break itself says it’s likely too big for this spot. Big-wave territory only.
After that, the wind turns onshore and messy from the 20th through the 24th, with dropping swell and poor conditions. The end of the run is a total write-off.
So here’s the call: Saturday the 18th morning is your window. Clean, solid east swell, good energy, long-period groundswell. Get in the water early. The rest of the run is either flat, too big, or blown out.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Wed night, min 4°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue afternoon, min 6°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wed 15 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | NE 6 | E 9 | NE 4 | ENE 8 | N 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 408 | 434 | 442 | 387 | 317 | 272 | 159 | 123 | 85 | 68 | 41 | 26 | 108 | 15 | 18 | 169 | 112 | 71 | 53 | 20 | 16 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:59PM2.17m | 11:24AM2.22m | 11:51PM2.21m | 12:20PM2.31m | 00:47AM2.25m | 1:17PM2.41m | 1:46AM2.30m | 2:14PM2.51m | 2:46AM2.37m | 3:12PM2.58m | 3:43AM2.42m | 4:09PM2.63m | 4:38AM2.46m | 5:05PM2.63m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:14AM0.55m | 5:37PM0.62m | 6:07AM0.50m | 6:38PM0.58m | 7:00AM0.45m | 7:38PM0.50m | 7:54AM0.38m | 8:35PM0.41m | 8:52AM0.32m | 9:32PM0.32m | 9:51AM0.25m | 10:29PM0.26m | 10:50AM0.19m | ||||||||
 |  | | | |  | | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:56 | — |
 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Feels °C | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | ENE 6 | ENE 5 | E 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 |
| kJ | 408 | 434 | 442 | 387 | 317 | 272 | 159 | 123 | 85 | 68 | 41 | 26 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 169 | 72 | 71 | 53 | 20 | 15 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | S 14 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 16 | S 20 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | S 15 | S 16 | S 12 | E 9 | E 9 | — | ESE 9 | S 20 | S 13 | S 16 | E 12 | E 9 |
| kJ | 198 | 206 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 13 | — | 8 | 8 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 6 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | S 21 | S 19 | — | S 16 | S 16 | S 20 | S 9 | S 8 | — | S 15 | — | S 15 | S 9 | S 13 | S 22 | S 8 | E 13 | E 13 | E 9 | E 14 |
| kJ | — | 36 | 66 | — | 124 | 78 | 122 | 38 | 35 | — | 40 | — | 4 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 15 | S 7 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | NE 4 | NE 6 | N 3 | NE 4 | NNW 3 | N 7 | N 3 | N 3 | — | — |
| kJ | 5 | 4 | 145 | 437 | 361 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 8 | 108 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 112 | 5 | 5 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 151 | 151 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 150 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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