
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 4 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period, E swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 8 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 8s period, E swell with 167 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.1m 8s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 05) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Tue 8th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, it's Rusty here, and I'm looking at the charts for Taylors Mistake. I'll be straight with ya – this is a tough stretch. We've got a big, long gap of nothing to get excited about before a couple of flickers of life later on.
The first record of any surf is on Tuesday the 8th of September, but even then it's a struggle. Before that, from now right through the first week, it's flat or near flat with terrible conditions. We're looking at a solid 4 or 5 days of nothing worth paddling out for.
So, Tuesday the 8th of September morning, things finally pick up a little. We get a small 4ft swell from the east, at 8 seconds. The good news is the wind is offshore from the WSW at 9 mph, so it should be clean. The wave energy is moderate (167), but with that short period it's gonna be pretty weak and soft. It's surfable, but it's very ordinary. The afternoon is similar but with a cross-offshore breeze, so not quite as clean.
The next real standout is that Friday the 11th of September afternoon. While the swell is tiny at 0.7ft, it's from the SSE with a very long period of 19 seconds. More importantly, the wind is glassy – dead calm. That's rare. It'll be clean as a whistle, but you'll be hunting for any little bump of energy. A long period swell like that tends to hold up better at a reef or point, but at a spot like Taylors, the sets will be far apart.
We then get another small window on Sunday the 13th of September morning. A 3ft north swell at a super short 4 seconds, but again, glassy conditions. The wave energy is weak (65), so it's more about the clean surface than any real power. This is another "surfable but very ordinary" situation.
Now, the best of the bunch, and the only one I'd really call a standout, rolls around on Wednesday the 16th of September morning. We get a 3ft swell from the SSE with a nice long 15-second period. That's solid groundswell with some proper energy behind it – the combined energy is a moderate 298. The wind is cross-off from the NNW at 16 mph, so it'll be clean with some push. That's the best combination of size, period, and wind in the whole 16-day window.
The last window is Friday the 18th of September morning with a 4ft NE swell at 9 seconds. It's glassy again, so the surface will be perfect. The energy is up there at 264, which is moderate. However, the peak of the swell from that direction isn't quite what Taylors loves, and it's a week and a half away, so don't lock it in.
Overall, it's a lean run. The water temp is sitting at 51°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest wetsuit. But the waves are mostly slim pickings. The glassy conditions on the 11th and 13th are nice for a paddle, but for proper waves, that Wednesday the 16th of September morning is your best bet.
Stay patient.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sun night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (near gales from the WNW on Fri morning, calm by Sat night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Mon morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Wed night, min 7°C on Mon night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 5 | NE 8 | SE 11 | N 4 | E 7 | N 3 | NE 4 | NE 4 | NE 9 | ESE 5 | E 6 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | E 7 | ENE 7 | N 4 | NE 5 | ENE 8 | SSE 20 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 43 | 58 | 89 | 167 | 140 | 85 | 40 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 38 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | on | on | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross |
High Tide | 9:53AM2.35m | 10:26PM2.23m | 10:49AM2.37m | 11:21PM2.24m | 11:47AM2.38m | 00:16AM2.25m | 12:43PM2.38m | 1:11AM2.28m | 1:38PM2.39m | 2:05AM2.30m | 2:31PM2.40m | 2:57AM2.31m | 3:23PM2.40m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:09PM0.57m | 4:34AM0.50m | 5:11PM0.53m | 5:31AM0.45m | 6:09PM0.47m | 6:25AM0.40m | 7:03PM0.41m | 7:19AM0.35m | 7:54PM0.36m | 8:14AM0.31m | 8:45PM0.33m | 9:10AM0.29m | 9:38PM0.33m | ||||||||
6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | |
— | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
Feels °C | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 5 | NE 8 | NE 6 | S 14 | E 7 | S 18 | NE 4 | NE 4 | NE 9 | S 10 | S 14 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | E 7 | ESE 7 | ENE 5 | NE 5 | ENE 8 | SSE 20 |
28 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 47 | 4 | 89 | 167 | 140 | 85 | 40 | 61 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 38 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | S 9 | SE 11 | SE 10 | S 16 | E 10 | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | NE 6 | S 14 | S 11 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | E 16 | S 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | SE 5 | SE 4 |
3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 63 | 1 | 56 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | S 9 | — | N 8 | E 8 | S 16 | S 15 | — | — | S 13 | NE 9 | ENE 8 | S 20 | S 19 | E 9 | NE 7 | ENE 5 | NE 6 |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 | 79 | 40 | — | — | 4 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 3 | NW 4 | NNW 4 | N 4 | NNW 4 | N 3 | — | — | ESE 4 | ESE 5 | E 6 | — | SSW 10 | S 9 | — | — | ENE 7 | N 4 | — | NW 3 | WSW 3 |
14 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 21 | 8 | — | — | 7 | 43 | 58 | — | 123 | 85 | — | — | 70 | 23 | — | 2 | 3 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 162 | 162 | 22 | 31 | 133 | 31 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 31 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 150 | 22 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.










