
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 19s period, SSE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 10s period, SSE swell with 670 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 19s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 19s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.9m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.0m 9s period and expected on Monday (Jul 27) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 19s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 19s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Mon 27th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks.
We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but there’s a small window of clean glass right at the beginning. Monday morning, July 20th, is the pick of the early days. We’re looking at a clean 2ft swell from the SSE, with a very long period of 19 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and with glassy conditions and a water temp of 51°F (about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year, so not too chilly), it’s a real treat for a winter session. The combined energy is moderate at 371, but don’t let that fool you – that long period will punch above its weight, especially at a reef setup like this. It’s a beginner-friendly break, and with crowds only sometimes, Monday morning is your best chance for a clean, quiet paddle.
After that, things get pretty flat and ordinary. Tuesday the 21st drops to 1ft and 1.0ft, and the energy tank is weak. From Wednesday the 22nd right through to Saturday the 25th, we’re looking at poor surf conditions with tiny waves, onshore or cross-shore breezes, and combined energy readings in the single digits or low teens. It’s a real flat spell. Honestly, it’s not worth getting wet.
Then, around Sunday the 26th, the ocean starts to wake up again. Sunday morning shows a 2ft SSE swell, period 14 seconds, with clean offshore winds from the WNW. The combined energy jumps to 286 (moderate), and it feels like a proper winter groundswell. That’s the second standout window, but it’s still on the small side.
The real meat comes on Monday the 27th through Tuesday the 28th of July. Monday morning serves up 4ft from the ESE with a period of 13 seconds and a combined energy of 563 (strong). The wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the swell is getting up there. By Tuesday the 28th, it’s 5ft from the east, period 14-15 seconds, and the energy hits 963 and 1005 – that’s strong to very strong wave energy. This is big, powerful groundswell. For a beginner-friendly break, 5ft is pushing the limit, and anything over 5ft is too much for beginners. This is expert territory. The wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the power is real. This is your best chance for a proper session, but only if you’ve got the experience.
After that, the swell drops back through the end of July and into early August. The first week of August looks like mostly small, ordinary surf with combined energy in the low hundreds or below. Not much to write home about.
So, overall, the standout is Monday morning, July 20th, for a clean, glassy, long-period small wave session. The big, powerful groundswell on Tuesday, July 28th, is the one for the experts – it’s the biggest, most energetic swell of the window, but it’s not for the faint of heart. The rest of the time, you’re waiting for the next pulse.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Fri afternoon, min 3°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Thu afternoon, fresh winds from the NNE by Sat morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 19 | SSE 19 | SSE 16 | SE 14 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | E 11 | E 11 | SE 12 | NE 4 | NE 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | NE 9 | NE 8 | NNE 4 | ENE 6 | ESE 16 | SSE 14 | E 15 | SE 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
322 | 312 | 107 | 46 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 54 | 45 | 87 | 170 | 110 | 160 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | glassy | cross-on | glassy | glassy | off | glassy | on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:16AM2.31m | 9:41PM2.29m | 10:09AM2.28m | 10:34PM2.23m | 11:00AM2.26m | 11:24PM2.18m | 11:52AM2.24m | 00:13AM2.14m | 12:42PM2.23m | 1:02AM2.11m | 1:30PM2.22m | 1:51AM2.09m | 2:18PM2.22m | 2:39AM2.08m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:20PM0.47m | 3:53AM0.47m | 4:17PM0.60m | 4:46AM0.55m | 5:15PM0.70m | 5:37AM0.63m | 6:12PM0.76m | 6:24AM0.69m | 7:05PM0.79m | 7:08AM0.73m | 7:52PM0.79m | 7:52AM0.75m | 8:36PM0.78m | ||||||||
7:54 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:50 | — | — | 7:48 | — | — | |
— | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3 |
Temp °C | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Feels °C | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 6 | -2 | 1 | -2 | 3 | -1 | -4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 19 | SSE 19 | SSE 16 | NE 4 | NE 4 | SSE 11 | NE 5 | E 11 | E 11 | NE 4 | NE 4 | E 11 | E 12 | NE 5 | NE 8 | ESE 14 | ENE 6 | ESE 16 | SSE 14 | E 15 | SE 10 |
322 | 312 | 107 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 45 | 87 | 170 | 110 | 160 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | SE 14 | SSE 12 | ENE 4 | E 11 | NE 4 | SE 12 | E 12 | E 12 | S 10 | S 9 | NE 9 | SE 4 | SE 5 | ESE 14 | NE 7 | E 15 | E 11 | ESE 14 |
49 | 49 | 46 | 46 | 31 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 116 | 9 | 145 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | E 11 | SE 10 | SE 10 | — | S 11 | S 10 | S 12 | S 14 | E 12 | SE 6 | S 17 | E 18 | S 11 | — | — | — |
— | — | — | 25 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 4 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 10 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NE 3 | — | — | — | — | — | ENE 2 | NE 4 | N 3 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | NNW 3 | SW 3 | NNE 4 | NNW 3 | W 3 | WSW 3 | S 13 | SW 3 |
— | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 54 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 483 | 9 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 31 | 31 | 35 | 305 | 162 | 36 | 314 | 32 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 181 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.










