Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking over what’s coming up for Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and we’ve got a decent wait before anything really gets going.

The good news is, there are a couple of standouts on the horizon, but you’ll need some patience. The start of the period is pretty average, with weak, short-period swells and messy conditions keeping things flat and uninviting for a few days. That gap of poor surf runs right through the first week, with most days offering nothing you’d paddle out for.

Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are write-offs – small, weak swell with onshore or cross winds. There’s a little bump on Tuesday morning the 7th, with 5ft east swell and cross-offshore wind, keeping it clean, but it’s marginal at best. The energy is only moderate (427), so it’s nothing special. By Wednesday the 8th, we see a bit more size and a longer period, hitting 5ft east at 11 seconds, but the rain and moderate breeze mean it’s still a tough call.

Thursday the 9th sees the swell pick up to 6ft from the ESE, but the wind is messy, so again, not great. It’s not until Friday afternoon the 10th that we get a glimmer – 4ft east swell with a light cross-offshore breeze, clean conditions, and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” The energy is moderate (319), and the wind is gentle, so that afternoon session might be worth a look for a beginner-friendly wave, but it’s still not a standout.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are small and glassy in the mornings, with around 4ft to 3ft of swell, but the period is only 10 seconds, so it’s short-period stuff. It’s surfable but ordinary.

Then we hit a real dry spell from Monday the 13th through Tuesday the 14th – tiny, weak swell with poor winds. Not worth your time.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Wednesday, July 15th is the first real standout. We’ve got a clean, glassy morning with 3ft swell from the ESE but it goes right up to a solid 4ft in the afternoon, with a period of 12 seconds. The wind is glassy – dead calm – which is a huge positive. The energy is moderate (336 morning, 373 afternoon) and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” For a beginner-friendly spot like Taylors Mistake, this is about as clean as it gets. The swell direction (ESE) is close enough to the optimum (ENE) to work well here. It’s a proper little groundswell, and those long lulls between sets will make paddling out easy. This is the one to circle on your calendar.

Thursday the 16th is a bit of a letdown after that, with onshore wind and choppy conditions, so don’t bother.

But then, Friday, July 17th is the heavyweight. The morning brings a 5ft swell from the east with a very long period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is a thumping 1178, which is strong. The wind is cross-offshore and light, keeping it clean. This is a serious bit of swell for Taylors, and it’s going to be powerful. With that long period, expect long, clean lines but be aware it might be a bit straight at the beach break – it’ll be better if you can find a bank. This is for experienced surfers only. The afternoon is still good at 5ft but with a bit more wind.

After that, Saturday the 18th gets blown out by strong winds, and Sunday the 19th drops right off again. So, if you’ve got the patience, wait for the 15th for the clean, glassy fun, or the 17th for the big, powerful groundswell.

Signing off, Rusty.

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