Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty.

Honestly, looking at the next couple of weeks, it’s a bit of a waiting game. We’ve got a heap of small, weak days ahead before the ocean finally remembers how to make a decent wave. There’s a real dry spell from now until the end of August, but hang in there because the first week of September is where the magic starts to happen.

We’re starting at Taylors Mistake on Sunday the 23rd, and to be blunt, it’s flat. There’s a tiny 2ft northeast windswell with a weak energy reading (81), and while the morning is glassy, a strong northwest breeze is messing with it. The water temp is sitting at a pretty standard 49°, about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Monday the 24th is a touch calmer with a glassy morning, but the swell drops to a dribbly 1ft from the southeast with a very long 14-second period. That long period is a bit of a tease—it shows there’s energy out there, but it’s just not reaching us properly. Tuesday and Wednesday are basically a write-off with tiny swell and poor conditions.

We get a slight pulse on Thursday the 27th, but it’s no good. A rising 1ft southeast swell (energy up to 159) comes with light rain and onshore winds. It’s messy. Friday the 28th sees the swell actually bump up to 4ft from the east-northeast, with a short 8-second period. The energy is moderate (200), and the wind is clean, but the short period means it’s just not going to have any push. It’ll be lumpy and weak. The weekend follows in the same vein—small and ordinary.

The first truly interesting blip is on Monday the 31st. The afternoon brings a southeast groundswell of 2ft with a 17-second period, and the energy jumps to a moderate 239. The wind is light and cross-offshore, making it clean. It’s still small, but you can feel the ocean starting to wake up. This is the first day you might actually get a fun little wave if you’re patient.

Now, here’s the standout. Skip ahead to Monday the 7th of September. This is the one we’ve been waiting for. Taylors Mistake finally turns on. We’ve got a solid 4ft southeast swell rolling in with a nice 12 to 13-second period. The energy reading is strong, hitting 380, and the winds are offshore—gentle in the morning and light in the afternoon. This is proper surf. The water is still cold, but who cares when the waves are breaking clean and lined up. The swell direction is from the southeast, which is a bit off the optimum for this spot, but the power and the clean conditions should make up for it. This is the day to clear your schedule.

Before that, the 6th of September is a precursor. It’s building with 3ft southeast swell and increasing energy (186), but the winds are a bit fresh in the afternoon. It’ll be worth a look, but the 7th is the real deal.

So, there’s a long flat spell to get through, with a small tease on the 31st, but the payoff is waiting for you on Monday the 7th of September. Don’t sleep on it.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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