Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 2 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 13s period, SE swell with 553 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 31 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 12s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 31) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.3m 13s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 15s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Fri 31st Jul) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s break this down for Taylors Mistake. It’s a beginner-friendly break that breaks fairly often, exposed to east-northeast swells, and crowds are a possibility. Water’s about normal for this time of year.
The first several days are a fight. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are small, cross-choppy, and not worth the drive. Saturday the 1st of August is still marginal – a little 3ft bump from the SSE, combined energy around 354-362 (moderate), but with rain, it’s nothing special.
Sunday the 2nd of August is your first real chance. The morning is glassy with light offshore wind at 3 mph, and the swell holds at 3ft from the SE with a 13-second period. Combined energy 256 (moderate). It’s small and clean, perfect for the beginner crew.
Then it gets flat again until Wednesday the 5th of August. That morning is dead calm – glassy – with 3ft SE swell, 12-second period. Combined energy 164 (moderate). Tiny but clean.
Thursday the 6th of August morning is also glassy, with 3ft SE swell, 11-second period, and combined energy 184 (moderate). Another small, clean window.
Now for the experienced surfers: Friday the 7th of August sees a big jump to 8ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon from the SSE, with a 12-second period. Combined energy is huge at 1863 (strong) to 1916 (strong). But the wind is onshore from the east, so it’s going to be messy and blown out. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty.
The second week gets ugly. Sunday the 9th of August afternoon has 7ft from the E, period 10 seconds, combined energy 1243 (strong), with clean cross-off wind, but it’s just marginal. Monday the 10th of August afternoon throws 12ft from the E, period 12 seconds, combined energy 4908 (very strong) – the guidance says it’s too big for this break, and with 19 mph cross-shore wind, it’s a kitesurfing scene more than a paddle session.
From Tuesday the 11th of August through Thursday the 13th of August, it’s onshore and choppy the whole way. Skip it.
Finally, Friday the 14th of August morning brings a clean, glassy finish: 3ft from the E, 12-second period, combined energy 287 (moderate), with light west-northwest cross-off wind at 3 mph. Small and clean for a longboard.
For the standout, I’d aim for the glassy morning of Sunday the 2nd of August – tiny, clean, and great for beginners. For experts, the Friday the 7th of August has size but it’s messy. A pretty patchy run overall.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Fri night. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu morning, min 4°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed night, strong winds from the SW by Fri night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | NE 8 | E 12 | E 12 | ESE 15 | SSE 12 | SE 12 | SE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SSE 15 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SE 12 | SE 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 190 | 104 | 101 | 132 | 43 | 41 | 44 | 268 | 224 | 183 | 241 | 157 | 89 | 47 | 172 | 233 | 222 | 149 | 130 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-on | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:46AM2.07m | 5:09PM2.19m | 5:29AM2.06m | 5:49PM2.20m | 6:13AM2.06m | 6:29PM2.20m | 6:58AM2.07m | 7:12PM2.19m | 7:45AM2.10m | 8:00PM2.19m | 8:31AM2.14m | 8:52PM2.18m | |||||||
Low Tide | 10:43PM0.68m | 10:56AM0.59m | 11:27PM0.62m | 11:37AM0.54m | 00:09AM0.57m | 12:17PM0.51m | 00:50AM0.53m | 12:59PM0.50m | 1:31AM0.52m | 1:42PM0.51m | 2:15AM0.53m | 2:30PM0.54m | |||||||
 |  | |  |  |  |  |  |  | |  | | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | 7:43 | — | — | 7:43 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 12 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Feels °C | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -3 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | E 12 | ENE 8 | ESE 15 | SSE 12 | SE 12 | SE 10 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | NNE 3 | SSE 14 | SSE 13 | SE 12 | SE 11 |
| kJ | 190 | 104 | 101 | 64 | 43 | 23 | 44 | 268 | 224 | 98 | 241 | 157 | 89 | 47 | 1 | 233 | 222 | 149 | 130 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 7 | S 17 | S 16 | — | E 16 | E 12 | E 11 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | SE 13 | E 16 | E 16 | — | ENE 6 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | S 16 | SE 16 |
| kJ | 11 | 6 | 5 | — | 5 | 41 | 21 | 77 | 136 | 183 | 5 | 5 | — | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | S 17 | S 16 | E 18 | SSW 11 | ESE 16 | ENE 8 | E 11 | E 10 | E 17 | NE 16 | NE 16 | S 20 | N 3 | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | E 12 |
| kJ | 6 | 49 | 45 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 4 | — | — | 3 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | N 4 | NNE 4 | NE 8 | NNE 4 | NW 3 | S 3 | SW 3 | WSW 3 | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | SSE 15 | S 14 | SW 3 | SW 3 | — |
| kJ | — | 23 | 14 | 132 | 21 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | — | 172 | 3996 | 5 | 1 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 31 | 133 | 31 | 44 | 0 | 185 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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