Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 15s period, E swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 17s period, E swell with 552 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 13s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 18s period and expected on Monday (Jul 20) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 1ft (0.3m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Fri 17th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up at Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks. The first few days are pretty quiet, but there’s a real sweet spot in the middle of the period that’s worth getting excited about. After that, it fades back into small stuff.
The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, nothing weird going on.
Thursday the 16th is a write-off. Tiny 1ft to 2ft easterly slop with a cross-off breeze in the morning, turning cross-on in the arvo. The combined energy is a weak 57 (morning) and 94 (afternoon). Not worth paddling out for.
Now, Friday the 17th is where it starts to get interesting. Morning brings a glassy 3ft easterly swell, period 17 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, long lines. Combined energy is a solid 491 (moderate). The wind is glass, dead calm. The arvo stays glassy with 4ft easterly and 520 energy. This is the standout. The waves will be clean, well-shaped, and with that long period, it’s best on the point or reef rather than the beach – it might break too straight if you’re out on the sand. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.
Saturday the 18th keeps it going. Morning has 4ft easterly swell with an offshore wind (WSW 6 mph), energy is 745 (moderate). The arvo is 3ft from the ESE with a light offshore (WNW 3 mph), energy 642. Both sessions are clean. This is another top pick.
Sunday the 19th drops off a bit. 3ft easterly in the morning, offshore wind, but energy is down to 241. The arvo is glassy with 2ft easterly, energy 205. Surfable, but nothing special.
Monday the 20th is messy with light rain and onshore wind, 3ft to 2ft ESE swell, energy around 324-434. Questionable conditions.
From Tuesday the 21st onwards, it’s a long stretch of tiny surf. You’re looking at 2ft down to 0.5ft for days, with poor conditions and weak energy readings as low as 7. This run lasts through to the end of the month. There’s a little blip on Thursday the 30th with a glassy 2ft easterly swell (energy 123) and a calm wind, but it’s small. Friday the 31st has 4ft ESE swell but cross-on wind, so it’s messy.
Bottom line: The best of it is Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th. The Friday morning glassy session with that long-period groundswell is the one to aim for. Get in before the crowds. After that, it’s a long, flat run.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed night, min 6°C on Fri morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 12°C on Sun afternoon, min 7°C on Mon afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wed 22 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | E 13 | E 16 | E 16 | E 17 | E 16 | E 15 | E 15 | ESE 14 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | SSE 18 | ESE 12 | SE 18 | SSE 18 | SSE 17 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 14 | 31 | 83 | 267 | 465 | 520 | 484 | 447 | 346 | 189 | 176 | 125 | 124 | 164 | 255 | 120 | 119 | 105 | 44 | 13 | 11 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-on | on | glassy | glassy | glassy | off | off | glassy | off | glassy | glassy | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | glassy |
High Tide | 5:33AM2.46m | 6:00PM2.60m | 6:29AM2.43m | 6:54PM2.53m | 7:25AM2.39m | 7:50PM2.45m | 8:22AM2.35m | 8:46PM2.36m | 9:16AM2.31m | 9:41PM2.29m | 10:09AM2.28m | 10:34PM2.23m | 11:00AM2.26m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:25PM0.22m | 11:46AM0.15m | 00:21AM0.23m | 12:39PM0.15m | 1:14AM0.26m | 1:32PM0.22m | 2:06AM0.31m | 2:25PM0.33m | 2:59AM0.39m | 3:20PM0.47m | 3:53AM0.47m | 4:17PM0.60m | 4:46AM0.55m | 5:15PM0.70m | |||||||
 |  | |  | | | | | | | | |  |  | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:52 | — | — | 7:52 | — |
 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
Feels °C | 11 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 4 | NNE 4 | E 16 | E 16 | E 17 | E 16 | E 15 | E 15 | ESE 14 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | SSE 18 | SSE 17 | SSE 16 | NE 5 | NE 4 | ENE 5 |
| kJ | 4 | 5 | 83 | 267 | 465 | 520 | 484 | 447 | 346 | 189 | 176 | 125 | 77 | 49 | 50 | 120 | 119 | 105 | 11 | 3 | 2 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | E 13 | NE 7 | S 16 | SSE 16 | S 16 | S 19 | SSE 23 | SSE 23 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | SSE 15 | SSE 18 | SSE 18 | ESE 12 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SSE 15 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 |
| kJ | 14 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 7 | 298 | 296 | 112 | 50 | 43 | 124 | 109 | 129 | 28 | 25 | 12 | 44 | 13 | 11 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 16 | SSE 6 | S 15 | — | — | — | — | S 24 | SSE 22 | SE 20 | SSE 19 | S 18 | ESE 12 | — | E 3 | ESE 11 | — | ESE 11 | E 11 | ESE 11 |
| kJ | 9 | 21 | 4 | 106 | — | — | — | — | 1094 | 46 | 15 | 37 | 407 | 164 | — | 1 | 49 | — | 12 | 9 | 11 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 3 | — | — | NNE 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 3 | SE 18 | — | — | NE 4 | — | — | — |
| kJ | 3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 255 | — | — | 8 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 0 | 31 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 25 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 22 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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