Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Grab a coffee, mate, because the outlook for Taylors Mistake for the next 16 days is a real bummer. We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak surf, and there’s no real standout session to get fired up about. The first few days are a washout, and it doesn’t get much better.

Right off the bat, the water’s sitting at about 52°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing.

The first bit of action comes on the morning of Saturday, September 12th. A long-period groundswell from the SSE with a period of 17 seconds is pushing a combined energy of 185 (moderate), but the swell height is only about 2ft. It’s a tease. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it’s messy. The afternoon glass-off is a better bet, with the swell holding at 2ft and the energy bumping up to 226 (moderate). That’s likely the best of the whole period – glassy, clean conditions, but the waves will be small and the long period means inconsistent sets. This spot is a beginner's wave anyway, so that 2ft is about perfect for a learner.

Sunday the 13th keeps the same SSE swell, but it drops to 1ft with an 11-second period. The morning is glassy, with energy at 80 (weak). It’s surfable, but you’ll be scratching for nothing. The afternoon turns onshore and gets ugly.

After that, it’s a long, flat gap. From Monday the 14th all the way through to the 23rd of September, the swell is pathetic – think 0.3ft to 1ft – with combined energy mostly under 50 (weak). There are a few clean, glassy mornings, like the 17th and 18th, but with barely any swell, it’s just a flat ocean. The 21st of September has a completely glassy morning with a 2ft ENE swell, but the period is a shocking 6 seconds, so it’s just weak, wind slop.

The last day, Thursday the 24th of September, sees a long-period SSE swell (17 seconds) return, but it’s only 0.7ft with a combined energy of 42 (weak). The wind is a light cross-onshore, so not even clean.

Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, Taylors Mistake is a dead loss for a real surf. If you’re desperate for a paddle on a glassy day, the afternoon of the 12th is your only real window, but keep your expectations on the floor. I’d be checking other spots or just taking a break. This is a classic case of a long period swell that’s just too small to do anything with.

Rusty.

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