
Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 5 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 9s period, ENE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 9 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 10s period, E swell with 1,381 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 5 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 10s period with ENE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.8m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 2.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 7s period and expected on Friday (Jul 10) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Sun 5th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Sun 5th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Thu 9th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here, looking over what’s coming up for Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and we’ve got a decent wait before anything really gets going.
The good news is, there are a couple of standouts on the horizon, but you’ll need some patience. The start of the period is pretty average, with weak, short-period swells and messy conditions keeping things flat and uninviting for a few days. That gap of poor surf runs right through the first week, with most days offering nothing you’d paddle out for.
Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are write-offs – small, weak swell with onshore or cross winds. There’s a little bump on Tuesday morning the 7th, with 5ft east swell and cross-offshore wind, keeping it clean, but it’s marginal at best. The energy is only moderate (427), so it’s nothing special. By Wednesday the 8th, we see a bit more size and a longer period, hitting 5ft east at 11 seconds, but the rain and moderate breeze mean it’s still a tough call.
Thursday the 9th sees the swell pick up to 6ft from the ESE, but the wind is messy, so again, not great. It’s not until Friday afternoon the 10th that we get a glimmer – 4ft east swell with a light cross-offshore breeze, clean conditions, and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” The energy is moderate (319), and the wind is gentle, so that afternoon session might be worth a look for a beginner-friendly wave, but it’s still not a standout.
Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are small and glassy in the mornings, with around 4ft to 3ft of swell, but the period is only 10 seconds, so it’s short-period stuff. It’s surfable but ordinary.
Then we hit a real dry spell from Monday the 13th through Tuesday the 14th – tiny, weak swell with poor winds. Not worth your time.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Wednesday, July 15th is the first real standout. We’ve got a clean, glassy morning with 3ft swell from the ESE but it goes right up to a solid 4ft in the afternoon, with a period of 12 seconds. The wind is glassy – dead calm – which is a huge positive. The energy is moderate (336 morning, 373 afternoon) and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” For a beginner-friendly spot like Taylors Mistake, this is about as clean as it gets. The swell direction (ESE) is close enough to the optimum (ENE) to work well here. It’s a proper little groundswell, and those long lulls between sets will make paddling out easy. This is the one to circle on your calendar.
Thursday the 16th is a bit of a letdown after that, with onshore wind and choppy conditions, so don’t bother.
But then, Friday, July 17th is the heavyweight. The morning brings a 5ft swell from the east with a very long period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is a thumping 1178, which is strong. The wind is cross-offshore and light, keeping it clean. This is a serious bit of swell for Taylors, and it’s going to be powerful. With that long period, expect long, clean lines but be aware it might be a bit straight at the beach break – it’ll be better if you can find a bank. This is for experienced surfers only. The afternoon is still good at 5ft but with a bit more wind.
After that, Saturday the 18th gets blown out by strong winds, and Sunday the 19th drops right off again. So, if you’ve got the patience, wait for the 15th for the clean, glassy fun, or the 17th for the big, powerful groundswell.
Signing off, Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 34mm), heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat night, min 5°C on Sun afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Sat night, fresh winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 95mm), heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 10°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the S on Wed afternoon, fresh winds from the SSW by Thu morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Sat 11 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 9 | SE 7 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
501 | 123 | 177 | 115 | 63 | 199 | 198 | 332 | 369 | 545 | 576 | 457 | 1381 | 641 | 682 | 530 | 384 | 319 | 367 | 313 | 254 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 8:15AM2.00m | 8:28PM2.12m | 9:00AM2.03m | 9:17PM2.12m | 9:45AM2.08m | 10:08PM2.14m | 10:33AM2.14m | 10:59PM2.17m | 11:24AM2.22m | 11:51PM2.21m | 12:20PM2.31m | 00:47AM2.25m | 1:17PM2.41m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:02AM0.58m | 2:10PM0.58m | 2:45AM0.57m | 2:55PM0.59m | 3:31AM0.57m | 3:45PM0.60m | 4:21AM0.57m | 4:39PM0.62m | 5:14AM0.55m | 5:37PM0.62m | 6:07AM0.50m | 6:38PM0.58m | 7:00AM0.45m | ||||||||
— | 8:02 | — | — | 8:02 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 8:00 | — | |
— | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 9 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
Feels °C | 7 | 7 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 19 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 |
7 | 123 | 177 | 115 | 63 | 43 | 198 | 332 | 369 | 545 | 576 | 457 | 1381 | 641 | 682 | 530 | 384 | 319 | 367 | 313 | 254 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NE 8 | S 16 | SW 7 | E 10 | NE 8 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | S 15 | SE 7 | SSW 12 | S 18 | SSW 16 | — | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 16 | S 15 | S 18 | S 16 |
— | 58 | 19 | 13 | 52 | 35 | 201 | 176 | 67 | 14 | 51 | 158 | 201 | — | 186 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 161 | 6 | 5 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | S 17 | SSW 15 | S 21 | — | — | — | — | — | S 14 | S 19 | SSW 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 9 | SSW 9 |
— | 23 | 22 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | 94 | 30 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 26 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | N 3 | WSW 2 | SW 3 | SSE 4 | SE 7 | SSE 9 | SE 9 | SE 8 | — | SSE 7 | S 18 | E 10 | S 15 | S 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
501 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 199 | 190 | 95 | 33 | — | 45 | 6 | 644 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 31 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 133 | 181 | 181 | 1 | 151 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 181 | 181 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.











