Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me break this down as Rusty for you.

G’day surfers, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up about the outlook for Taylors Mistake. Honestly, looking over the next 16 days, it’s a bleak stretch. There are a few moments where the ocean might offer something, but for the most part, you’re looking at a whole lot of flatness and poor conditions. This area just ain’t gonna fire for a while.

We start off with nothing. Tuesday the 25th of August through to the end of the month is a dead loss – tiny 0.7ft to 2ft swells, mostly onshore or cross-off winds, and the wave energy is pathetic, with values ranging from a measly 15 to just over 184 (combined energy of all swells). The water temp is sittin’ at 50°F, which is about average for this time of year, so a bit chilly.

The first glimmer of something, and I mean a very faint glimmer, comes right at the end of the month. On Monday the 31st of August, the early morning looks interesting. We’ve got a clean, glassy start with light offshore winds from the west at 6 mph. The swell is tiny though, only 1ft, comin’ out of the SSE with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, so the wave shape should be decent, but it’s barely pushin’ any water – combined energy of all swells is only 87. It’s surfable, but you’ll be scratchin’ for anything rideable. The water temp is missin’ for that record, but the air is clear. For a beginner spot, it’s safe but forgettable.

Then we hit a massive gap. From the 31st of August afternoon, right through to the 9th of September, there’s practically nothin’ worth paddlin’ out for. The waves rarely top 1ft to 2ft, and when they do, like on Friday the 28th of August where we saw a 6ft swell from the ENE, the wind was a fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph, makin’ it a lumpy, choppy mess. That one had some moderate energy (366 combined energy of all swells), but it’s no good for anyone.

If there’s one standout, and it’s a weak one, it’s that Monday mornin’ the 31st of August. It’s clean, glassy, light wind, and that long-period SSE swell should wrap in nicely. But at 1ft? You’re not gonna get much more than a knee-high ripple. The crowd factor at Taylors Mistake can be “sometimes” busy, but with conditions this poor, odds are you’ll have the place to yourself.

The forecast confidence for the second week drops off, and honestly, it doesn’t matter. The patterns are just flat and windy. This is a write-off for the next 16 days. The swell energy stays low (mostly under 100) and the winds are rarely kind. The best advice? Don’t bother gettin’ your hopes up. For a fairly consistent spot like Taylors Mistake, this kind of blank run is unusual, but it happens. Forecasts can change, but for now, leave the boards in the car.

Rusty.

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