Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.8m), 16s period, E swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 17s period, E swell with 546 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 13s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 19) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Thu 16th Jul) | 1ft (0.3m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.8m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Fri 17th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
Hey, Rusty here, checking in on Taylors Mistake for the next couple of weeks. I’ll level with you – it’s a slow burn, but there’s a killer day or two if you can hang tight.
The first few days are a total no-go. Monday (13th July) through Wednesday morning (15th July) is flat, bumpy, and just sad. We’ve got a tiny, short-period swell from the ENE and NNE, only 2 to 3 feet, with cross-offshore winds messing it up. The wave energy is basically nothing (42 to 19). Water temp is about 50°F, pretty normal for this time of year. Save your wax.
Thursday (16th July) gets a little interesting. The swell drops to a tiny 1 foot, but a very long-period groundswell (13 to 16 seconds) starts showing from the east. It’s small – "surfable but very ordinary" – but Thursday morning is clean with a light offshore breeze, and the afternoon goes glassy calm. Energy is still weak (83), but if you’ve got a longboard, go for a paddle.
Here’s the one to circle: Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th of July. This is it. The swell builds to a clean 3 to 3 feet out of the east, with a very long period of 15 to 17 seconds. That’s real groundswell, and the energy jumps up strong (381 to 564). The wind is glassy or just a slight air all day. The waves will be clean, lined-up, and proper fun for a beginner-friendly break like Taylors. Remember, with that long period, sets will be a bit wider apart, making it easier to get out, but the waves could straighten out a touch on the beach. The swell direction (ENE) matches what this spot likes, and it’s fairly exposed. Crowds can be a thing here sometimes, so beat the rush.
After that, it’s downhill. Sunday (19th July) is still okay with 2-foot waves from the ESE and some clean spells, but energy drops to moderate (206). Then from Monday the 20th July all the way to Tuesday the 28th July, it’s a long, flat run. Mostly onshore easterly wind, tiny slop under 2 feet, and weak energy (down to 26). The 28th of July shows a jump to 5 feet from the ENE in the morning, glassy – but with a short period of 6 seconds, it’ll be weak and lumpy. By the afternoon it’s 6 feet with a direct onshore wind, turning into a choppy mess for the kiteboarders.
Bottom line: the first week is dead until Friday and Saturday (17th-18th July). That’s your window – clean, glassy, waist-to-chest high east groundswell with real push. After that, it’s a long, flat, windy stretch. Second week looks like a write-off.
Get in the water Friday.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 4 | NNE 4 | NE 8 | NNE 4 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | NE 7 | E 12 | E 13 | E 13 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 | E 17 | E 16 | E 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | E 13 | ESE 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 16 | 20 | 16 | 23 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 25 | 14 | 31 | 82 | 198 | 330 | 546 | 503 | 447 | 346 | 250 | 184 | 125 | 85 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | off | off | glassy | glassy | glassy | glassy | glassy | glassy | glassy | glassy | cross-off | glassy | glassy |
High Tide | 3:12PM2.58m | 3:43AM2.42m | 4:09PM2.63m | 4:38AM2.46m | 5:05PM2.63m | 5:33AM2.46m | 6:00PM2.60m | 6:29AM2.43m | 6:54PM2.53m | 7:25AM2.39m | 7:50PM2.45m | 8:22AM2.35m | 8:46PM2.36m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 9:32PM0.32m | 9:51AM0.25m | 10:29PM0.26m | 10:50AM0.19m | 11:25PM0.22m | 11:46AM0.15m | 00:21AM0.23m | 12:39PM0.15m | 1:14AM0.26m | 1:32PM0.22m | 2:06AM0.31m | 2:25PM0.33m | 2:59AM0.39m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  | | | |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — | 7:54 | — | — |
 | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | — | 5:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
Feels °C | 4 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 5 | E 9 | NE 8 | ESE 9 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | NE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | E 13 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 | E 17 | E 16 | E 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | E 13 | ESE 12 |
| kJ | 16 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 82 | 198 | 330 | 546 | 503 | 447 | 346 | 250 | 184 | 125 | 85 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | S 13 | E 9 | S 8 | E 8 | E 13 | E 12 | S 19 | E 13 | ENE 7 | NE 5 | NE 5 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 10 | S 23 | SSE 23 | SSE 21 | ENE 5 | SE 6 | SSE 19 |
| kJ | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 51 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 101 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 35 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | — | S 12 | S 20 | E 10 | E 10 | S 19 | S 17 | E 11 | E 16 | — | S 15 | — | — | — | S 23 | S 9 | S 21 | SSE 20 | SSE 16 | S 14 |
| kJ | 4 | — | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 52 | 9 | 21 | — | 4 | — | — | — | 272 | 85 | 578 | 41 | 24 | 16 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 4 | NNE 4 | NE 4 | NNE 4 | N 3 | NNE 3 | — | E 12 | — | — | SW 4 | NNE 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 4 | S 6 | — |
| kJ | 12 | 20 | 11 | 23 | 8 | 9 | — | 25 | — | — | 4 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 31 | 52 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 31 | 52 | 35 | 4 | 260 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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