Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 15 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 16 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 7s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 18 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 13s period, SSE swell with 491 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.5m), 10s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.2m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 14s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 1.5ft (0.5m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 9PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 7s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 18th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough stretch for Taylors Mistake. We’ve got a long, quiet run ahead with only a couple of flickers of hope right at the very end. For the most part, the first week and a half are a write-off, with tiny, weak swell and average conditions. You’ll be watching the horizon more than riding waves.
We start off with nothing worth paddling out for. Saturday the 15th through to late August is a real flat spell. There’s a little pulse of 2ft easterly swell on Monday the 17th with light offshore winds, but the combined energy is only 119 (weak energy) and that’s just ordinary. That sums up most of this period: tiny waves, poor surf. The water temp is 50°, which is about average for this time of year, so no complaints there, but it’s cold enough for a good steamer.
The only real standout, and I mean the *only* one worth getting excited about, lands on Saturday the 29th of August. We’ve got a 5ft easterly swell rolling in, period around 9 seconds from the east-northeast, which suits the break beautifully. The combined energy hits 377 (moderate wave energy) – that’s proper push. Early morning looks clean with light cross-off winds from the west-southwest. This is the best on offer. That swell direction is spot on for Taylors Mistake, and the size will give you some fun, punchy waves. It’s a fairly exposed spot, so it’ll pick it up well. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have company, but with such a long dry spell, it could be worth a session. Just be aware that swell over 5ft can be a bit much for beginners, so this one’s for the intermediates and up. The Sunday morning after that drops back to 3ft, clean but nothing special.
In summary: don’t bother for the first week and a half. Mark down Saturday the 29th as your best bet – it’s promising, but it’s a long-range call so keep an eye on the charts. For now, it’s the only real window of quality in the whole 16 days.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Sat afternoon, min 4°C on Mon morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the W on Mon morning, fresh winds from the SW by Tue morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Wed afternoon, min 7°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Tue afternoon, calm by Thu morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 15 | Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 7 | SSE 6 | E 9 | ENE 10 | SE 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SSE 10 | E 10 | SE 14 | SSE 16 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 35 | 41 | 44 | 117 | 79 | 65 | 66 | 100 | 67 | 19 | 407 | 95 | 78 | 46 | 51 | 20 | 66 | 48 | 20 | 14 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | off |
High Tide | 6:26PM2.43m | 6:59AM2.34m | 7:20PM2.37m | 7:55AM2.33m | 8:16PM2.30m | 8:47AM2.32m | 9:10PM2.24m | 9:37AM2.30m | 10:01PM2.19m | 10:25AM2.27m | 10:50PM2.15m | 11:12AM2.23m | 11:37PM2.10m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:46AM0.30m | 1:05PM0.31m | 1:36AM0.36m | 1:58PM0.43m | 2:26AM0.44m | 2:52PM0.56m | 3:17AM0.54m | 3:46PM0.66m | 4:08AM0.64m | 4:41PM0.74m | 4:58AM0.71m | 5:34PM0.79m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  | |  |  |  | | | | | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — |
 | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — |
mm | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
Feels °C | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 7 | ENE 8 | SE 7 | E 10 | SE 9 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | SSE 10 | E 10 | SE 14 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 16 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | NE 4 |
| kJ | 35 | 41 | 42 | 47 | 79 | 65 | 66 | 100 | 67 | 19 | 407 | 85 | 78 | 46 | 51 | 20 | 66 | 48 | 20 | 2 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | E 13 | E 9 | ENE 10 | E 10 | SE 8 | ESE 9 | S 14 | E 10 | — | E 10 | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | ESE 12 | SE 11 | E 9 | SE 12 | E 9 | E 12 | SSE 12 |
| kJ | 3 | 4 | 44 | 117 | 47 | 35 | 30 | 4 | 31 | — | 8 | 95 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | E 9 | S 19 | ESE 12 | SSE 16 | E 15 | E 15 | SE 8 | SSE 4 | — | E 12 | E 10 | E 10 | E 11 | E 9 | E 13 | E 9 | E 13 | E 9 | E 11 |
| kJ | 6 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 46 | 1 | — | 3 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSE 6 | SW 3 | SE 7 | S 7 | — | — | — | WSW 3 | S 12 | SW 3 | WSW 2 | S 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 4 |
| kJ | — | 32 | 1 | 107 | 92 | — | — | — | 6 | 330 | 5 | 1 | 2726 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 8 | 9 | 1 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 207 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 4 | 22 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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