Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

*Note on imperial units:* Alright, grab your wetsuit, because I’m looking at the next couple weeks here at Taylors Mistake, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag at first. The water is sitting at about 51°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small win for your toes.

We’ve got a bit of a wait for the real stuff. The surf through Wednesday (8th) is pretty ordinary, with a bit of cross-on wind and ripples. Thursday morning (9th) shows some promise, though – the wind swings to a cross-off from the SSW at 9 mph, cleaning things up. You’re looking at a 5ft east swell at 11 seconds, with a combined energy of 442. It’s not huge, but it’s clean. The afternoon does drop off a notch, getting pretty average again.

Friday (10th) is much the same – surfable but nothing to write home about. The morning is ordinary, the afternoon cleans up a touch with light cross-off breezes and a 4ft east swell. Saturday (11th) turns glassy, with a light west wind in the morning giving you smooth, clean lines, but the swell drops right down to 3ft, so it’s more of a longboard day. The energy is weak, only 149.

Then we hit a flat spell. From Sunday (12th) right through to Wednesday morning (15th), it’s pretty much dead. Swells drop under 3ft, winds turn nasty and onshore or cross-shore, and the energy numbers are barely flickering. That’s 4 or 5 days of very little to work with.

But hold onto your board – the back half of the week gets interesting. Thursday morning the 16th brings a glassy, dead-calm start with a 4ft east swell that has some real legs on it, a 16-second period pushing the combined energy to 596. That’s a proper groundswell. The afternoon gets even better: the wind is a light cross-off from the SW, and the swell holds at 4ft with a 15-second period and an energy reading of 746. This is your best option in the first week. The long period means it’ll pour in with longer waits between sets, making paddle-outs easier, but watch out – at a beach break like this, it might be a little too straight, so keep your eyes open for a sandbank.

Then the 17th – Friday. Morning is the standout of the whole forecast. You’ve got a clean, light offshore from the west at 6 mph, a 6ft swell from the ESE at a very long 13 seconds, and the combined energy is screaming 1664. That’s some serious energy. This is clean, powerful, and has plenty of push. It’s over 5ft, so beginners might wanna paddle out at a protected spot, but for anyone comfortable in overhead surf, this is firing. The break is fairly consistent, but the perfect offshore and groundswell combo here is pure gold.

The rest of the second week gets messy though. Saturday 18th and Sunday 19th have cross-on or onshore winds that chop things up, and while the swell sticks around at 3ft to 5ft, it’s lumpy. Crowds are listed as ‘sometimes’ at Taylors, so that Friday morning session might have a crew out, but it’s worth the company.

Monday 20th through Wednesday 22nd is a write-off – fresh to moderate onshore winds and lumpy cross-chop. The 22nd even shows a 7ft east swell, but with cross-on winds at 16 mph, it’s just a messy, blown-out wall that is more suited to kitesurfing than a traditional paddle session. The energy is 1976, but without clean wind, it means nothing.

Thursday 23rd has a tiny 3ft southeast swell with strong onshore winds – forget it.

So, my call? The standout is Friday morning the 17th of July. Mark it in your calendar. The second best is Thursday the 16th, especially the afternoon. Everything else is flat, choppy, or blown out. Stay patient, mate.

Rusty.

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