Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 16s period, E swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 16s period, E swell with 396 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 10s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 10s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 0.9m 16s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Sat 11th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 12AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
Alright, Rusty here again, this time in feet and knots for the imperial crew. Same story for Taylors Mistake—gotta earn your waves over the next couple of weeks.
Water temp is about 51°F, a little warmer than normal for this time of year. Not a bad start.
Right off the bat, small stuff rolls in on Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th. Friday sees a 4ft easterly swell at 10 seconds, light cross-off wind from the SW, and moderate energy—just ordinary conditions. Saturday morning has a clean 3ft easterly swell with offshore wind. Good for a learner but nothing to get stoked about.
Then we hit a flat, ugly stretch from Sunday the 12th through Thursday the 16th. Swell barely touches 3ft, periods are short, and wind messes up most windows. A solid 4-5 days of mostly poor surf. You'd be better off with a kiteboard than a paddleboard during that time.
The first real standout is Friday the 17th of July. A long-period groundswell from the east at 16 seconds brings waves around 3ft. Combined energy jumps to 396 in the morning and 418 in the arvo—solid moderate-to-strong juice. Light offshore and cross-off wind keeps the surface clean. The swell direction matches what Taylors Mistake likes. That Friday afternoon is your golden window for the whole 16 days. Expect some company out there, but it's worth it.
Saturday the 18th is a dud—wind cranks to 18-22 mph from the S and SSW, blowing out any decent shape. After that, the whole next week (19th-25th) is small stuff, onshore breezes, or glassy but tiny waves. There's a glassy morning on the 22nd and 23rd with 2ft swells, fine for a longboard, but nothing special.
Later in the window, the morning of Friday the 24th of July shows a 5ft northeasterly swell with a short 6-second period and glassy conditions. Energy is 255—moderate. It'll be clean and fun for intermediates, but that short period means it's not a standout.
So lock in Friday the 17th of July for your best chance at clean, decent waves. The rest is mostly small or blown out. The long gap of poor surf between the 12th and the 17th is pretty standard for the area when the swell windows don't line up, but things can change as we get closer.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 10°C on Mon morning, min 4°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 7°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fri 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | NE 5 | ENE 6 | NNE 4 | NE 6 | NNE 4 | N 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | NE 7 | NE 8 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 252 | 156 | 121 | 90 | 62 | 41 | 26 | 80 | 18 | 17 | 47 | 19 | 9 | 32 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 46 | 83 | 267 | 396 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | glassy | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 00:47AM2.25m | 1:17PM2.41m | 1:46AM2.30m | 2:14PM2.51m | 2:46AM2.37m | 3:12PM2.58m | 3:43AM2.42m | 4:09PM2.63m | 4:38AM2.46m | 5:05PM2.63m | 5:33AM2.46m | 6:00PM2.60m | 6:29AM2.43m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:38PM0.58m | 7:00AM0.45m | 7:38PM0.50m | 7:54AM0.38m | 8:35PM0.41m | 8:52AM0.32m | 9:32PM0.32m | 9:51AM0.25m | 10:29PM0.26m | 10:50AM0.19m | 11:25PM0.22m | 11:46AM0.15m | 00:21AM0.23m | ||||||||
 |  | | |  | | | | |  | | | | |  | |  |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 8:00 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:58 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:56 | — | — | 7:56 |
 | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | 5:13 |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
Temp °C | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
Feels °C | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 9 | E 9 | E 9 | NE 5 | ENE 6 | E 9 | NE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 6 | E 13 | E 12 | NE 4 | NE 8 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 | E 16 |
| kJ | 252 | 156 | 121 | 90 | 62 | 41 | 26 | 27 | 18 | 6 | 47 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 83 | 267 | 396 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 20 | SSE 18 | SSE 16 | S 14 | S 16 | S 15 | E 9 | E 9 | S 13 | NE 9 | S 8 | E 10 | E 11 | S 19 | NE 7 | E 12 | ESE 4 | NE 6 | ENE 5 | S 14 |
| kJ | 5 | 8 | 30 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 20 | S 9 | — | — | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 13 | — | E 8 | S 20 | S 8 | S 16 | NE 8 | E 12 | E 17 | ENE 7 | ESE 4 | S 15 | S 15 |
| kJ | 78 | 121 | 56 | — | — | 45 | 39 | 4 | 4 | — | 1 | 8 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 112 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 2 | — | NE 5 | N 2 | NNE 4 | NNW 3 | NNE 4 | N 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | — | — | — | NNW 3 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 80 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 9 | 32 | 17 | — | — | — | 3 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 8 | 150 | 162 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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