Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 22 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 28 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period, NE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 28 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period, NE swell with 800 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 24 Aug, 3AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 14s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 24) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 2.4m 8s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Aug 28) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 25) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Mon 24th Aug) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Fri 28th Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Fri 28th Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, it’s Rusty.
Honestly, looking at the next couple of weeks, it’s a bit of a waiting game. We’ve got a heap of small, weak days ahead before the ocean finally remembers how to make a decent wave. There’s a real dry spell from now until the end of August, but hang in there because the first week of September is where the magic starts to happen.
We’re starting at Taylors Mistake on Sunday the 23rd, and to be blunt, it’s flat. There’s a tiny 2ft northeast windswell with a weak energy reading (81), and while the morning is glassy, a strong northwest breeze is messing with it. The water temp is sitting at a pretty standard 49°, about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Monday the 24th is a touch calmer with a glassy morning, but the swell drops to a dribbly 1ft from the southeast with a very long 14-second period. That long period is a bit of a tease—it shows there’s energy out there, but it’s just not reaching us properly. Tuesday and Wednesday are basically a write-off with tiny swell and poor conditions.
We get a slight pulse on Thursday the 27th, but it’s no good. A rising 1ft southeast swell (energy up to 159) comes with light rain and onshore winds. It’s messy. Friday the 28th sees the swell actually bump up to 4ft from the east-northeast, with a short 8-second period. The energy is moderate (200), and the wind is clean, but the short period means it’s just not going to have any push. It’ll be lumpy and weak. The weekend follows in the same vein—small and ordinary.
The first truly interesting blip is on Monday the 31st. The afternoon brings a southeast groundswell of 2ft with a 17-second period, and the energy jumps to a moderate 239. The wind is light and cross-offshore, making it clean. It’s still small, but you can feel the ocean starting to wake up. This is the first day you might actually get a fun little wave if you’re patient.
Now, here’s the standout. Skip ahead to Monday the 7th of September. This is the one we’ve been waiting for. Taylors Mistake finally turns on. We’ve got a solid 4ft southeast swell rolling in with a nice 12 to 13-second period. The energy reading is strong, hitting 380, and the winds are offshore—gentle in the morning and light in the afternoon. This is proper surf. The water is still cold, but who cares when the waves are breaking clean and lined up. The swell direction is from the southeast, which is a bit off the optimum for this spot, but the power and the clean conditions should make up for it. This is the day to clear your schedule.
Before that, the 6th of September is a precursor. It’s building with 3ft southeast swell and increasing energy (186), but the winds are a bit fresh in the afternoon. It’ll be worth a look, but the 7th is the real deal.
So, there’s a long flat spell to get through, with a small tease on the 31st, but the payoff is waiting for you on Monday the 7th of September. Don’t sleep on it.
Stay stoked,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue morning, min 6°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Sun morning, calm by Sun night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Wed night, min 7°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed night, fresh winds from the NNW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 23 | Monday 24 | Tuesday 25 | Wednesday 26 | Thursday 27 | Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 9 | NE 9 | E 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 14 | NNE 4 | E 14 | E 14 | SSE 17 | E 14 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 9 | NNE 4 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
64 | 23 | 19 | 40 | 37 | 28 | 15 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 28 | 56 | 101 | 97 | 153 | 165 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 31 | 40 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 12:51PM2.17m | 1:12AM2.05m | 1:40PM2.16m | 2:01AM2.04m | 2:27PM2.16m | 2:47AM2.06m | 3:12PM2.17m | 3:31AM2.08m | 3:54PM2.19m | 4:13AM2.11m | 4:35PM2.22m | 4:55AM2.13m | 5:15PM2.25m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:12PM0.80m | 7:14AM0.76m | 7:56PM0.77m | 8:01AM0.72m | 8:39PM0.73m | 8:50AM0.66m | 9:23PM0.67m | 9:39AM0.60m | 10:07PM0.61m | 10:24AM0.54m | 10:51PM0.55m | 11:06AM0.50m | 11:34PM0.51m | ||||||||
7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | |
— | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
Feels °C | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 9 | NE 9 | SSE 11 | SSE 14 | SSE 14 | SSE 12 | E 14 | E 14 | N 3 | E 14 | ENE 4 | NE 4 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 16 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | SSE 9 | ESE 12 |
64 | 23 | 12 | 40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 101 | 97 | 48 | 165 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 14 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | E 14 | S 16 | S 18 | SSE 17 | S 14 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | NE 7 | SE 5 | SE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 12 | SSE 11 | N 4 | ESE 13 | SE 9 |
14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 4 | 28 | 56 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 30 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 3 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | S 9 | SSE 14 | — | E 8 | S 17 | SE 10 | S 9 | E 14 | S 17 | E 13 | N 3 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | — | E 16 | E 15 | E 14 | SSE 10 | — | — |
3 | 2 | 19 | — | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 13 | — | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 4 | NW 4 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | N 3 | NNE 4 | NNW 4 | NNW 4 | SE 3 | ENE 3 | N 2 | NW 3 | ESE 5 | ENE 4 | ENE 7 | NNW 3 | — | N 3 | WSW 2 | ENE 9 | NNE 4 |
25 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 40 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 31 | 153 | 3 | — | 5 | 1 | 31 | 40 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 166 | 185 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 36 | 4 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 185 | 162 | 0 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 4 | 166 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.











