Taylors Mistake Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

The first week of this outlook is a tough one for Taylors Mistake. We’ve got a long, slow start with very little to get excited about. There’s a real gap of poor conditions from Friday the 31st of July right through the first week of August. The first few days are a write-off, with tiny, weak easterly swells and cross-off winds that just don’t put anything together. The combined energy is barely registering (63 on Friday morning), so it’s a real struggle.

Saturday the 1st of August shows a slight bump to 3ft from the southeast, but the wind is a messy cross-off from the southwest at 15 mph, and the energy is moderate (348). It’s still a marginal call. Sunday the 2nd offers a cleaner look with a light offshore from the west at 6 mph, and that 3ft southeast swell has a decent 13-second period, giving it some shape. The energy is moderate (210), but it’s just “ordinary” – not a standout, but the best of a flat week. Monday the 3rd has a glassy moment with a 2ft SSE groundswell and a very long 15-second period, but the energy is weak (124), so it’s more of a longboard glide than a punch.

We see a bit more energy on Tuesday the 4th with a 3ft SSE swell and a 16-second period, pushing the energy into the moderate range (395), but the 15 mph cross-off wind from the southwest keeps it from being clean. The water temperature is sitting at 49°F, which is about average for this time of year, so the wetsuit is your friend.

The real story, the one to mark on your calendar, is the second week. Tuesday the 11th of August is where we finally get some proper swell. A solid 6ft to 7ft easterly swell (ENE direction) rolls in with a clean offshore wind from the west-southwest at 6-9 mph. The energy jumps significantly (488 on Tuesday morning, 658 by afternoon). This is a big, powerful groundswell with a period of 8-9 seconds, which is punchy. It’s going to be a proper session for the experienced crew – that size is getting into the expert zone, so keep that in mind.

And then Wednesday the 12th of August is the absolute standout. The swell holds at 6ft, still from the ENE, but the period stretches to 11 seconds, and the energy is strong (731). The wind is light and variable, with a glassy morning. This is the best combination of size, power, and clean conditions in the entire forecast. The swell direction (ENE) is right on the money for Taylors Mistake’s optimum. This is a day to clear your schedule, but be aware – with conditions this good, crowds are possible.

After that, the swell slowly fades through the rest of the week. Thursday the 13th sees a drop to 4ft with a 12-second period, but the wind turns onshore, and the conditions become marginal. The following days are a slow decline back to the small stuff, with a final glassy, ordinary 3ft swell on Saturday the 15th.

So, to cut through it: the first week is a write-off. The best of the whole 16-day window is Wednesday the 12th of August. Tuesday the 11th is the runner-up, a solid day of powerful surf for the experts.

Rusty.

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