Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 2 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 12s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 6 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 9s period, NE swell with 173 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 3 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 12s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 03) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.8m and 4s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.0m 9s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 7s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Thu 3rd Sep) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Sun 6th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening at Taylors Mistake over the next couple of weeks.
Honestly, the first real surf we see isn’t until Wednesday, September 2nd. Before that, it’s a flat spell. After that one good session, we’re in for a long, dry run of messy conditions.
The clear standout is Wednesday morning, September 2nd. Taylors Mistake will have a clean 2ft swell from the SSE, but the real beauty is the period – 16 seconds. That’s a proper long-period groundswell with a moderate combined energy of 242. The wind is glassy from the WNW, so the surface will be dead smooth. Water temp is 51°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for the season. This is your window. Just keep in mind that such a long period can make the wave break a little straight at the beach, but with offshore conditions it’ll still have some shape. Get out there early.
From Thursday the 3rd all the way through to Tuesday the 15th, it’s a bust. Swell heights are tiny – mostly under 2ft – and the wind is all over the place, often strong cross-off or cross-shore. The combined wave energy is in the low teens and twenties, which is just weak. Day after day of poor surf. There’s a brief moment on Thursday the 10th of September morning with a 4ft swell from the NNE, but the period is a pathetic 4 seconds, so it’s just wind-blown slop. Not worth it.
The second week doesn’t save us. On Thursday the 17th of September morning, there’s a 2ft swell from the East with a 15-second period and energy hitting 130 (moderate). Sounds promising, but the wind is strong from the SW – cross-off, but too strong to make it clean. The afternoon sees the energy spike to 562 (very strong) with a 3ft swell from the ENE and 14-second period, but again, the wind is howling from the SSW. A lot of power, but it’ll be a choppy mess. Only for the die-hards.
So, here's the deal: Wednesday morning, September 2nd is your one and only shot. Glassy, clean, long-period groundswell at Taylors Mistake. Don’t miss it, because after that, the forecast is bleak for a long time.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Wed morning). Winds increasing (calm on Wed morning, strong winds from the WNW by Fri afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 7°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Sat morning, fresh winds from the SW by Sun night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | Friday 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SE 12 | N 4 | N 3 | NNE 4 | NE 5 | NE 9 | SE 11 | N 4 | E 10 | N 4 | NNE 4 | NE 4 | ENE 9 | ENE 8 | SE 10 | SE 8 | SE 8 | SSE 8 | SE 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 240 | 121 | 37 | 18 | 8 | 23 | 14 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 34 | 101 | 6 | 48 | 34 | 23 | 39 | 19 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 8:33PM2.24m | 8:59AM2.32m | 9:30PM2.23m | 9:53AM2.35m | 10:26PM2.23m | 10:49AM2.37m | 11:21PM2.24m | 11:47AM2.38m | 00:16AM2.25m | 12:43PM2.38m | 1:11AM2.28m | 1:38PM2.39m | 2:05AM2.30m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:11PM0.53m | 2:39AM0.51m | 3:09PM0.56m | 3:36AM0.52m | 4:09PM0.57m | 4:34AM0.50m | 5:11PM0.53m | 5:31AM0.45m | 6:09PM0.47m | 6:25AM0.40m | 7:03PM0.41m | 7:19AM0.35m | 7:54PM0.36m | ||||||||
 | |  |  | |  | | | | | |  | | |  | | | | | | | |
 | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — |
 | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:04 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:06 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 16 | SSE 14 | SE 12 | SSE 11 | SE 9 | SE 10 | NE 5 | NE 9 | NE 6 | SE 10 | SE 9 | S 18 | S 18 | S 17 | ENE 9 | ENE 8 | SE 10 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ENE 4 | SE 7 |
| kJ | 240 | 121 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 101 | 6 | 48 | 34 | 23 | 1 | 19 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | S 11 | S 19 | NE 8 | S 9 | SE 11 | E 10 | S 15 | E 10 | — | SSW 10 | N 3 | SE 5 | E 7 | SE 11 | NE 3 | SE 10 | SE 10 |
| kJ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | — | 33 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SE 12 | E 11 | E 10 | S 14 | S 9 | E 11 | E 10 | S 15 | E 10 | E 9 | SE 9 | E 11 | S 16 | — | — | S 14 | SE 10 | — | E 9 |
| kJ | — | — | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | — | — | 4 | 4 | — | 2 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 3 | N 4 | N 4 | N 3 | NNE 4 | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | N 4 | NNW 4 | N 4 | NNE 4 | NE 4 | WSW 3 | S 3 | SSW 3 | ENE 10 | — | SSE 8 | — |
| kJ | — | 5 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 23 | 12 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 34 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 19 | — | 39 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 36 | 4 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 162 | 162 | 31 | 22 | 36 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 22 | 181 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 9 | 31 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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