Surf Forecasts:
Taylors Mistake surf forecast from 26 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 2 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 13s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 1 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.3m), 16s period, SE swell with 813 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 14s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Taylors Mistake this week:
The surf forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Taylors Mistake in the next 16 days are 1.3m 16s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 9AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 3s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 30) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 13s |
| Most Powerful | 9AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 4.5ft (1.3m) 16s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Taylors Mistake over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here with the lowdown on Taylors Mistake for you.
Water temp is sitting at 50°, which is about 1° warmer than the usual for this time of year, so nothing too crazy, just a bit of a winter edge.
We’ve got a slow start coming up. The first real action kicks off on Tuesday, July 28th. Monday afternoon the 27th is glassy with a 3ft easterly swell, but it’s just a preview. Tuesday morning is where it’s at. The swell hits 4ft from the east, running on a 13-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 417 (moderate). The wind is glassy—a slight air from the northwest. That’s clean, lined-up, beginner-friendly waves. This is the standout. Tuesday afternoon the wind shifts onshore, so get in early.
Wednesday the 29th is another good one. Morning glass again with a 3ft easterly swell and 293 (moderate) energy. Clean and consistent.
From Thursday the 30th right through the end of the first week of August, it goes flat and messy. Thursday and Friday see cross-shore winds that chop it up, with the swell dropping below 2ft. The combined energy falls to 111 on Thursday, then 115 on Friday. The period drops to 7 seconds on Friday, which is just junk. Not worth the paddle.
Now, look ahead to the first week of August. Saturday the 1st of August shows a 4ft swell from the southeast. That’s a bit more size, with a 16-second period—a proper long-period groundswell. The combined energy is a strong 888. The wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but that long period can make it run a bit straight on a beach break. Still worth a look. Sunday the 2nd of August afternoon is the real gem, same 4ft swell but with glassy conditions. That’s a solid session.
After that, it fades. Monday and Tuesday drop back to 3ft and then 1ft, with energy dropping to 202 and then 66. From Wednesday the 5th of August onward, it’s a total bust. The wind is cross-onshore and fresh, the swell is tiny (1.0ft to 1ft), and the energy is in the weak 30s and 40s. Not worth the drive.
Your best bets are Tuesday morning the 28th of July and Wednesday morning the 29th of July for the cleanest conditions. The second standout is Sunday the 2nd of August afternoon for the bigger swell and glassy conditions. Hit those windows.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 11°C on Tue afternoon, min 3°C on Sun morning). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu afternoon, min 6°C on Fri night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed night, fresh winds from the SSW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | NE 9 | NE 7 | E 12 | E 11 | SE 16 | SE 15 | ESE 9 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 157 | 148 | 176 | 222 | 215 | 293 | 417 | 417 | 350 | 276 | 209 | 146 | 106 | 98 | 164 | 51 | 42 | 37 | 813 | 767 | 132 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | cross-off | glassy | off | glassy | glassy | glassy | on | on | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 2:18PM2.22m | 2:39AM2.08m | 3:03PM2.21m | 3:23AM2.08m | 3:47PM2.20m | 4:05AM2.07m | 4:29PM2.19m | 4:46AM2.07m | 5:09PM2.19m | 5:29AM2.06m | 5:49PM2.20m | 6:13AM2.06m | 6:29PM2.20m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 8:36PM0.78m | 8:38AM0.74m | 9:18PM0.76m | 9:26AM0.70m | 10:00PM0.73m | 10:12AM0.65m | 10:43PM0.68m | 10:56AM0.59m | 11:27PM0.62m | 11:37AM0.54m | 00:09AM0.57m | 12:17PM0.51m | 00:50AM0.53m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | | | | | | | | |  |  |  | |  |  | |  | |
 | 7:48 | — | — | 7:48 | — | — | 7:47 | — | — | 7:46 | — | — | 7:43 | — | — | 7:43 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — |
 | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 2 | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
Feels °C | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | E 12 | ENE 7 | E 11 | ENE 10 | E 10 | ESE 9 |
| kJ | 157 | 148 | 176 | 222 | 215 | 293 | 417 | 417 | 350 | 276 | 209 | 146 | 106 | 98 | 63 | 44 | 30 | 37 | 19 | 8 | 132 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 11 | SE 6 | ESE 6 | SSW 13 | SE 6 | S 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | ENE 5 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | S 17 | S 16 | E 18 | E 16 | E 12 | ENE 8 | E 11 | ENE 9 | ESE 11 |
| kJ | 41 | 6 | 4 | 131 | 1 | 52 | 35 | 20 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 42 | 14 | 21 | 9 | 113 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 6 | ENE 11 | — | SE 6 | SE 6 | — | — | — | S 16 | S 18 | S 18 | S 17 | — | SSW 13 | — | ESE 12 | ESE 16 | ESE 14 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 |
| kJ | 9 | 22 | — | 9 | 9 | — | — | — | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | — | 33 | — | 15 | 24 | 20 | 35 | 19 | 8 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | — | — | NNW 2 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | NE 9 | NE 7 | SW 2 | S 3 | SE 16 | SE 15 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 13 | 164 | 51 | 2 | 10 | 813 | 767 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 52 | 32 | 31 | 0 | 181 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Canterbury | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Taylors Mistake Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Taylors Mistake provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Taylors Mistake can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Taylors Mistake surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Taylors Mistake) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Taylors Mistake may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Canterbury? If you are looking for accommodation near Taylors Mistake, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Canterbury, consider staying in Christchurch which is 10 km (6 miles) away.
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