Tokatu Peninsula Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s take a look at what’s coming for Tokatu Peninsula over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, right now you’re in a bit of a flat spell. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak waves and mostly cross-off or offshore winds, but the energy just isn’t there. Starting Friday, July 10th, we’re looking at tiny 2 ft easterly swells with combined energy of only 65 (weak), and while the morning offshore breeze keeps things clean, the surf is poor. That trend sticks around for days—Saturday and Sunday see even smaller waves, dropping to 1 ft by Sunday afternoon with energy down to 29 (weak). There’s a gap here where there’s nothing worth paddling out for.

Monday, July 13th through Wednesday, July 15th is basically a write-off: poor surf conditions, onshore or cross-on winds, and combined energy barely hitting 25 at best. Thursday, July 16th is glassy but with 0.3 ft to 0.7 ft waves and energy of just 8 to 17—that’s a lake, not surf.

Finally, something interesting shows up on Friday, July 17th. The swell direction shifts to east, with a long period of 17 seconds—that’s proper groundswell energy. Height is only 1 ft to 1 ft, but the combined energy jumps to 104 and 138 (moderate), and the wind is light offshore or cross-off, keeping it clean. For an experienced surfer on a longboard or a funboard, that could be a fun, glassy session at Tokatu Peninsula, especially with that long period offering some shape. Crowds are often here, so expect company.

Then things get weird. From Saturday, July 18th, a big, messy easterly swell builds fast. Heights climb to 4 ft then 5 ft, but combined energy hits 141 and 331 (moderate), with strong cross-shore winds making it messy chop. Probably more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Sunday, July 19th sees the swell go up to 8 ft (too big for beginners) and energy rockets to 901 (strong), but the wind stays strong and messy—not good.

The standout for experts is Monday, July 20th. Swell height hits 12 ft from the north-northeast, with a period of 11 seconds, and combined energy is massive at 4743 (very strong wave energy). Winds are cross-off from the southeast at 28 mph, keeping it clean. The water temperature is about average for this time of year at 60°F, so that’s no surprise. This is only for experienced surfers—12 ft is serious, and the swell direction matches the optimum easterly-northeasterly. It’s a big, powerful groundswell, so a reef or point break would handle it better than a beach break. Crowds are likely, so pick your spot carefully.

After that, the week of July 21st through 24th is dominated by large, cross-shore wind-affected swell, with heights between 8 ft and 12 ft and combined energy staying in the very strong range (1500 to 3282). Conditions are messy—strong cross-shore chop or onshore wind—so it’s blown out for most breaks. By Friday, July 24th, the swell drops to 3 ft but the wind cranks up to 31 mph near gale force, making it completely unsurfable.

Saturday, July 25th fades to 3 ft but the wind goes onshore, and a thunderstorm risk pops up, so not worth it.

For the best on offer: if you’re an expert, make a date with Monday, July 20th. The swell is big, clean, and powerful. For everyone else, that Friday, July 17th is your only real chance at a fun, clean wave on a small scale. The rest is a long gap of poor conditions or blown-out size. That’s the reality for Tokatu Peninsula right now, but forecasts can change, so keep an eye on the wind.

Rusty.

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