Surf Forecasts:
Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast from 27 Aug 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 29 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 8ft (2.4m), 8s period, NNE swell with 763 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tokatu Peninsula this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Tokatu Peninsula in the next 16 days are 2.4m 8s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 29) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 30) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Sat 29th Aug) | 8ft (2.4m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Tokatu Peninsula has in store for us.
Right off the bat, it’s a slow start. We’re looking at a pretty flat run until late Saturday the 29th of August. A few small, choppy waves roll through Thursday and Friday, but honestly, nothing worth paddling out for.
Then, Saturday afternoon the 29th clears up nicely. We get a solid 8ft swell pushing in from the north-northeast, with a period of 8 seconds. The wind swings light offshore from the southwest, and that’s the magic combo – clean faces with a bit of punch. The combined swell energy is strong at 738. It’s the one standout in the whole window. For a beginner-friendly break like this, that’s a rare and welcome pulse. The water temperature is sitting at 57°, which is about average for this time of year – just a touch on the cooler side.
Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st still have some waist-high leftovers, but the wind cranks up strong offshore, which makes paddling out a battle and the waves get blown out. By Tuesday the 1st of September through the following week, it’s back to tiny, clean but tiny ankle-to-knee slop. Energy readings linger in the teens and twenties – really weak stuff. The offshore winds keep the surface clean, but there’s just no push.
The real kicker comes on Tuesday the 8th of September. A big pulse of north swell hits hard – we’re talking 12ft to 13ft with energy readings over 2000. That’s serious power. Unfortunately, the wind is howling onshore from the north at 12 to 19 mph, making it a wild, lumpy mess. That kind of size, with onshore wind and a short period, is only for the most experienced and brave. For most, it’s a no-go.
For a rare, fairly consistent spot like this, we get one clean, decent window: Saturday afternoon the 29th. After that, it’s a long, flat stretch until the big, windy stuff arrives in the second week. If you’re after a paddle, Saturday is your best – and nearly only – bet.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 22mm), heaviest during Sat morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sat afternoon, min 11°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sat afternoon, fresh winds from the WSW by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Sun night, light winds from the W by Tue night). | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | N 5 | N 5 | N 6 | N 7 | N 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NE 9 | NNE 9 | NE 9 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 8 | NE 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 5 | 42 | 64 | 132 | 272 | 643 | 338 | 149 | 114 | 84 | 55 | 36 | 48 | 44 | 31 | 31 | 12 | 11 | 17 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 6:57AM2.34m | 7:21PM2.50m | 7:39AM2.43m | 8:01PM2.56m | 8:21AM2.50m | 8:42PM2.60m | 9:03AM2.54m | 9:24PM2.61m | 9:46AM2.55m | 10:07PM2.59m | 10:30AM2.54m | 10:53PM2.55m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:01AM0.82m | 1:18PM0.71m | 1:43AM0.73m | 1:59PM0.63m | 2:24AM0.64m | 2:38PM0.58m | 3:04AM0.58m | 3:18PM0.56m | 3:46AM0.54m | 3:59PM0.58m | 4:29AM0.53m | 4:44PM0.63m | |||||||
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:47 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:57 | — | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 2 | 14 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 9 | E 5 | ESE 5 | — | E 14 | E 13 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NE 9 | NNE 9 | NE 9 | NE 10 | NE 10 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 8 | NE 10 |
| kJ | 3 | 1 | 3 | — | 4 | 3 | 338 | 149 | 114 | 84 | 55 | 36 | 48 | 44 | 31 | 31 | 12 | 11 | 17 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 12 | N 11 | NE 9 | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | E 12 | NNW 7 | — | NW 5 | N 6 | — | NW 5 | — | N 12 | N 12 | N 12 | N 11 |
| kJ | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 11 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 9 | N 11 | N 11 | E 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 3 | N 5 | N 5 | N 6 | N 7 | N 8 | SSW 4 | SW 5 | SW 4 | WSW 4 | SW 4 | WSW 4 | WSW 4 | WSW 4 | WSW 4 | SW 3 | W 3 | WSW 3 | WSW 3 |
| kJ | 5 | 42 | 64 | 132 | 272 | 643 | 21 | 62 | 35 | 32 | 36 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 65 | 257 | 369 | 65 | 65 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 112 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 67 | 358 | 67 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Northland | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tokatu Peninsula Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tokatu Peninsula provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tokatu Peninsula can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tokatu Peninsula) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Tokatu Peninsula is 49 km (30 miles) from the city of Northshore. If you plan a holiday in Northland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Northshore. Northshore has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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