Tokatu Peninsula Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this is a tough stretch for a wave. We’re looking at a 16-day window, and honestly, the first week and a half or so is pretty grim. We’ve got a solid gap from now through to around the 9th where it’s all tiny dribble or blown-out junk. There’s a brief pulse of bigger energy around the 10th and 11th, but it’s paired with shocking wind and messy conditions. After that, it drops away again into small, clean but ultimately weak surf through the middle of the month. The only real glimmer comes right at the tail end, on the 21st, and even that’s just on the edge of being worth a look.

Your best bet in this whole outlook is Tokatu Peninsula. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, fairly exposed, and it takes an ENE swell, which is what we see later on.

Let’s start with the early days. On Thursday the 6th, we’ve got tiny 1ft swells from the ESE with a short period of 6 seconds. The morning is clean but cross-off, and the afternoon goes glassy. Nice conditions, but barely a ripple. Very weak combined energy (13-14). Friday and Saturday are even smaller, with 0.3ft swells from the NE. Winds get messy, shifting cross and onshore. There’s absolutely nothing to ride.

The first real change hits on Sunday the 9th. We get a jump to 5ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, both from the north. The period is still short (6 seconds), and the wind is a strong onshore northerly at 19-22 mph. The combined energy jumps to 130 and then 227—moderate energy—but with that wind, it's going to be a washing machine. Poor surf.

Monday the 10th is the biggest pulse of the forecast. Swell peaks at 7ft from the north with an 8-second period, and the combined energy hits 647 (moderate-to-strong). The morning has rain and strong onshore wind, but the afternoon shift to a light cross-onshore WNW breeze at 6 mph gives a glimmer. It’s a marginal call, but that afternoon window on the 10th is about the best we get for a while. Not great, but surfable if you’re desperate.

Tuesday the 11th holds some size (6-7ft) but it’s plagued by onshore winds and rain. Not worth it.

Wednesday the 12th has dropping swell (5-5ft, NNE) but still cross-onshore wind. Combined energy drops to 300-394.

Then we get a bit of a break. Thursday the 13th morning sees a small but clean window: 4ft from the NNE with glassy conditions and light wind. The energy is 187, so weak, but it’s the cleanest surf of the whole run so far. Surfable but ordinary.

After that, the 14th brings more onshore junk with a spike to 7ft and strong north winds. Not for beginners. From the 15th through the 19th, it’s all small—1ft to 2ft—with variable winds. The 19th morning and afternoon finally see some light offshore SSW wind, making for clean conditions, but the swell is tiny. Combined energy is just 18-20. Weak.

Now, the standout. Friday the 21st of August. The morning brings 3ft from the NNE with a solid 10-second period. The wind is a fresh cross-offshore ESE breeze at 19 mph, and the combined energy climbs to 250. That’s the best energy reading we’ve had in days and it comes with clean conditions. The direction (NNE) is a little off the optimum ENE, but it’s close enough. The afternoon holds similar size with fresher cross-shore wind. This is the pick of the entire 16-day window. For a beginner spot, 3ft is perfect, and that 10-second period will give the waves a bit of push. The wind should keep the faces clean.

Overall, if you’ve got to paddle out, wait for the 10th afternoon or the 21st morning. The rest is either too small, too windy, or both. Water temp at Tokatu Peninsula is around 58°, which is pretty bang on average for this time of year—nothing unusual there.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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