Tokatu Peninsula Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk in feet and miles per hour now. Rusty here, looking at the Tokatu Peninsula forecast. The whole 16-day window is a major bust – we’ve got a long run of tiny, gutless swell and winds that just won’t cooperate. Every single entry is flagged as poor surf conditions. There’s no standout session. Expect several days in a row with zero to recommend. The first week is a write-off.

On Wednesday the 9th of September morning, it’s a 0.3ft northeast swell with a long 15-second period – that’s a long wait between sets for a ripple. Wind is light east at 3 mph, cross-shore, so a bit of surface texture. Energy is a weak 17 – just a whisper.

Through Thursday the 10th, swell climbs to 1.0ft from the northeast, period 14 seconds. Wind swings west at 9-12 mph, still cross, creating slight chop. Energy hits 38 and 58 – still nothing.

Friday the 11th through the weekend, swell drops to 0.7ft. Wind turns offshore from the southwest at 22-25 mph, so the surf is clean, but the height is laughable. On Saturday the 12th, a 0.7ft swell from the east-northeast at a short 9-second period, energy only 21.

This pattern of tiny 0.7ft swell, clean conditions but no power, continues right through to Tuesday the 15th. Swell direction is mostly north-northeast. The water temp anomaly isn’t given, so call it average for this time of year.

Then on Wednesday the 16th of September, we get a pulse – 5ft from the northwest with a pitiful 5-second period. That’s sloppy, short-period junk. Energy jumps to 120, which is moderate. Wind is cross-off from the southwest at 19 mph, making it clean, but the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” This is not good surf; the waves will be weak and crumbly. The afternoon drops to 2ft from the north-northwest, period 6 seconds.

We go flat again on Thursday the 17th – 0.3ft. Friday the 18th sees a 2ft northwest swell, but energy is only 25. Saturday the 19th offers 2ft to 3ft from the north-northwest, with messy cross-shore west winds at 16-19 mph and energy up to 69. Still poor.

On Sunday the 20th of September, it gets chunky – 6ft to 6ft from the north-northwest, period stays short at 7 seconds. Combined energy surges to 301 in the morning and a strong 523 in the afternoon. The wind is cross-shore from the west at 22-25 mph, strong and messy, creating lumpy chop. This size (over 5ft) is too big for beginners, and with the short period and onshore mess, it’s a no-go. On a beach break like this, with that wind, it’s kite-surf territory, not a paddle.

After that, it fades fast. Monday the 21st is 2ft, Tuesday the 22nd goes back to 0.7ft, with a glassy moment on Tuesday afternoon – 0.3ft from the northeast, 8-second period, energy a pathetic 4. Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th offer a small 2ft pulse from the east and east-northeast, with cross-shore winds and short periods. On Thursday the 24th morning, the wind goes offshore from the south-southwest at 12 mph, giving clean conditions, but the swell is still only 2ft from the northeast with 8-second period, energy 40.

If you had to pick a session, the 5ft on the morning of the 16th is the biggest but the quality is awful. The 6-6ft on the 20th has power but is blown to bits. This is a proper flat spell for this area. Keep the board in the car, but leave the wax at home. Forecasts can turn around, but right now it’s a hard pass.

Rusty.

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