Surf Forecasts:
Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 21 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 7s period, E swell with 131 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tokatu Peninsula this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Tokatu Peninsula in the next 16 days are 1.2m 7s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.5m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 4ft (1.2m) 7s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s on offer over the next couple of weeks.
Well, I’ll be honest with you – it’s a pretty grim run for the most part. The first eleven days or so are a real write-off, with nothing but tiny, weak swell and messy conditions. You’ll be sitting on the beach staring at a flat ocean for a long stretch there. The only real flicker of hope comes right at the tail end of the forecast, on the first weekend of August.
The standout window is Saturday, the 1st of August. We finally get a pulse of clean energy. The swell builds through the day, with the morning seeing a 4ft NNW swell and a light, clean cross-offshore breeze from the SW. The combined wave energy is moderate at 118. It’s a beginner-friendly size, so it’s not going to be a monster, but it’ll be the cleanest, most surfable waves we’ve seen. By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 7ft from the NNW, with a moderate 7-second period, and the energy cranks up to 465. That’s getting into proper territory, but it’s a bit too big for the grommets and more suited to the experienced crew. The winds stay clean and cross-off, so it should be a rippable afternoon.
Before that, on the 28th of July, the swell kicks up to 6ft from the NW, but it’s completely blown out by a strong 22 mph cross-onshore wind. That’s a messy, lumpy mess for paddle surfing. If you’ve got a kite, that Tuesday might be more your scene.
The rest of the run is a mix of tiny southerly windswells and weak northerly pulses, all with average to poor winds. Not worth paddling out for.
So, if you’re keen, pencil in Saturday the 1st of August. The morning is your best bet for a clean, fun wave, and the afternoon for the bigger, more powerful stuff. It’s a long wait, but it’s the only real game in town.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the E on Mon night, calm by Tue afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed morning, min 11°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, fresh winds from the NNW by Fri morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 7 | E 6 | E 6 | ENE 5 | N 7 | N 7 | N 7 | E 10 | E 10 | E 7 | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | N 7 | W 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 131 | 47 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 54 | 103 | 47 | 14 | 40 | 10 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:46AM2.62m | 11:07PM2.71m | 11:34AM2.56m | 11:53PM2.61m | 12:22PM2.48m | 00:40AM2.50m | 1:11PM2.38m | 1:27AM2.39m | 2:02PM2.28m | 2:18AM2.28m | 3:01PM2.21m | 3:13AM2.20m | 4:03PM2.19m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:58PM0.44m | 5:34AM0.49m | 5:46PM0.58m | 6:21AM0.57m | 6:38PM0.71m | 7:09AM0.67m | 7:32PM0.82m | 7:57AM0.76m | 8:27PM0.90m | 8:46AM0.85m | 9:21PM0.96m | 9:37AM0.92m | 10:15PM0.98m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | | | | |  | |  | | |  | | | |  | |
 | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — |
 | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | 2 | 1 |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | NNE 5 | E 6 | ENE 5 | ENE 5 | E 5 | N 7 | N 7 | N 6 | E 7 | E 7 | NNW 6 | N 7 | NNW 6 | NNW 5 | NNW 7 |
| kJ | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 103 | 47 | 14 | 40 | 10 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | E 11 | E 11 | N 7 | N 7 | N 7 | — | — | E 7 | N 6 | E 11 | E 7 | E 9 | E 9 | E 11 | E 10 |
| kJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 20 | 8 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 8 | N 7 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | E 10 | E 11 | — | E 10 | N 9 | SSW 4 | N 8 | E 16 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 2 | — | E 4 | E 7 | E 6 | — | — | — | SSW 2 | SW 3 | — | — | — | NNW 5 | W 3 | SW 4 | W 4 | W 4 | SW 5 |
| kJ | 5 | 6 | 1 | — | 4 | 131 | 47 | — | — | — | 1 | 6 | — | — | — | 54 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 36 | 70 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 22 | 22 | 58 | 58 | 65 | 13 | 44 | 58 | 107 | 203 | 115 | 65 | 370 | 208 | 358 | 86 | 22 | 39 | 62 | 22 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Northland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tokatu Peninsula Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tokatu Peninsula provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tokatu Peninsula can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tokatu Peninsula) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Tokatu Peninsula is 49 km (30 miles) from the city of Northshore. If you plan a holiday in Northland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Northshore. Northshore has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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