Surf Forecasts:
Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 6s period, NNW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 6s period, NNW swell with 280 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 26 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 6s period with NNW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tokatu Peninsula this week:
The surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 26) at 12PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Tokatu Peninsula in the next 16 days are 1.9m 6s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 3PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 6s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Fri 24th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Tokatu Peninsula.
First up, the water temp is sitting at 59°F – that’s about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. The bad news is, for the first week and a half, it’s a pretty bleak picture. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf, mostly tiny waves under 2ft, and a lot of cross-off or onshore winds. The energy is weak, with combined swell energy readings mostly in the single digits to low double digits (like 11, 8, 6, 9). Not worth paddling out for.
The first real glimmer of hope actually shows up on Saturday, 1st August. The afternoon brings a jump in swell height to 4ft from the east, with a period of 9 seconds. That’s a bit of a short period, but the combined energy hits 303 – that’s moderate energy, so there’s some push. The wind is cross-off from the WSW, so it’ll be clean. Still, the wave comment says “poor surf conditions,” so don’t expect perfection. It’s a step up, but not a standout.
The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, arrives on Tuesday, 4th August morning. The wind switches to a light offshore from the SSW at just 3 mph, with a swell of 2ft from the ENE. The period is 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, meaning longer, better-shaped waves. The combined energy is 123 (moderate), and the conditions are clean. This is the best on offer in the whole outlook. Tokatu Peninsula is a beginner-friendly spot, so this is a great time for the less experienced crew to get some clean, rideable waves. The offshore wind will keep the faces nice and smooth.
Then Wednesday, 5th August morning, is a close second. Glassy conditions with the wind going dead calm, and the swell holding at 2ft, 12 seconds, ENE. Combined energy is 135. It’s surfable, but it’s not quite as good as Tuesday. The afternoon on Wednesday turns onshore, so get your session in early.
After that, the outlook fades again. Thursday, 6th August has onshore winds and the swell drops back to 2ft. The window of decent surf is short – just a couple of days – but that Tuesday and Wednesday morning are your best bet.
So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The second week has a couple of bright spots, with Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th August mornings being the pick. The energy is moderate, the wind is offshore or glassy, and the swell is clean. Get on it while it lasts.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 11°C on Wed morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Wed morning, fresh winds from the W by Fri night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 7°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Sat afternoon, light winds from the S by Sun morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | Tuesday 28 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 5 | N 7 | N 8 | E 5 | NE 7 | E 7 | E 6 | NNW 4 | NNW 7 | NNW 7 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | NNW 7 | E 13 | E 14 | E 13 | E 14 | E 14 | E 15 | E 15 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 261 | 89 | 41 | 39 | 21 | 43 | 31 | 58 | 85 | 91 | 103 | 106 | 104 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | on | on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 1:11PM2.38m | 1:27AM2.39m | 2:02PM2.28m | 2:18AM2.28m | 3:01PM2.21m | 3:13AM2.20m | 4:03PM2.19m | 4:11AM2.15m | 5:00PM2.21m | 5:06AM2.15m | 5:49PM2.26m | 5:55AM2.19m | 6:32PM2.33m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:32PM0.82m | 7:57AM0.76m | 8:27PM0.90m | 8:46AM0.85m | 9:21PM0.96m | 9:37AM0.92m | 10:15PM0.98m | 10:30AM0.95m | 11:09PM0.99m | 11:24AM0.94m | 00:00AM0.96m | 12:17PM0.88m | 00:48AM0.92m | ||||||||
 |  |  | |  | | |  |  | | |  | |  | | | | |  | |  | |
 | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — |
 | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:31 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 7 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 10 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 5 | ENE 5 | N 8 | E 5 | E 5 | E 7 | E 6 | E 8 | E 9 | NNW 7 | NNW 7 | E 11 | E 11 | NNW 7 | E 13 | E 7 | E 13 | E 14 | E 14 | E 15 | E 15 |
| kJ | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 89 | 17 | 39 | 21 | 43 | 31 | 35 | 85 | 91 | 103 | 106 | 104 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 7 | N 7 | — | NE 7 | NE 7 | NE 7 | NE 7 | E 10 | E 13 | E 12 | E 11 | NNW 7 | E 16 | E 11 | NNW 6 | E 14 | ESE 6 | E 6 | N 11 | N 10 | — |
| kJ | 4 | 4 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 44 | 41 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 11 | NE 6 | E 10 | E 7 | E 11 | E 8 | E 10 | — | — | — | S 6 | N 7 | E 15 | — | N 6 | N 7 | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 17 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SSW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 7 | WSW 4 | SW 5 | SW 4 | NW 4 | W 4 | SE 5 | S 4 | S 4 | SSW 4 | SSW 4 | S 4 | S 4 |
| kJ | — | — | 4 | 3 | 4 | — | 3 | 25 | 261 | 67 | 115 | 26 | 21 | 13 | 71 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 29 | 21 | 7 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 67 | 203 | 161 | 65 | 203 | 358 | 103 | 358 | 8 | 91 | 239 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Northland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tokatu Peninsula Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tokatu Peninsula provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tokatu Peninsula can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tokatu Peninsula) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Tokatu Peninsula is 49 km (30 miles) from the city of Northshore. If you plan a holiday in Northland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Northshore. Northshore has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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