Tokatu Peninsula Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Tokatu Peninsula has on offer for the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you, it's a slow start and there's a lot of waiting around.

We kick off on Monday the 13th with next to nothing – weak, messy onshores, and absolutely no reason to paddle out. That pretty much sets the tone right through until Friday the 17th. We’re looking at a solid four days of tiny, poor quality waves, with the odd bit of cross-offshore wind but barely enough swell to wet your board. The energy is pitiful, reading between 14 and 97. Not a single session worth chasing.

Friday the 17th morning finally breaks the drought. We get a bit of life with a 1ft swell from the east, period around 17 seconds, and clean conditions with a cross-offshore breeze (WSW 9 mph). The combined energy climbs to (97). It's not big, but those are real groundswell lines and it's clean. That’s the first real chance to get wet, but it’s very small and only for the patient.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are back to near-flat with cross-offshores. Not much doing. But then heads up for Monday the 21st – we start seeing a pulse. On Monday the 21st morning, the swell kicks up to 5ft from the east with a short period of 5 seconds. The energy jumps to (105), and it’s clean with light ESE cross-offshore winds. That’s a definite green light for beginners. By the afternoon, it builds to 6ft from the east (7 seconds), energy up to (260), and still clean with a gentle breeze. That’s the best surf of the whole outlook right there – solid, clean, and rideable for most.

Tuesday the 22nd gets messy with a strong east wind, not worth it. But Wednesday the 23rd looks promising. In the morning we pick up 2ft from the NNE with a 9-second period and clean offshore from the south (12 mph), energy at (111). The afternoon holds similar. Then Thursday the 24th is another good one: clean with 3ft from the ENE (10-second period), light offshore breeze, and combined energy at (209). That’s solid, well-shaped surf for a decent paddle.

After that, Friday the 25th through Sunday the 27th drops back to small and ordinary, with a few onshore days and a strong wind spike. On Monday the 28th morning, a pulse of 8ft from the north rolls in, but it’s onshore and messy – that’s big, but only for the brave. Tuesday looks blown out with strong winds.

So here’s the takeaway: The standout is Monday the 21st – the afternoon session in particular: 6ft east swell, clean conditions, and moderate energy (260). That's your best window. Thursday the 24th is the runner-up with clean 3ft from the ENE. Everything else is small, inconsistent, or blown out.

The water temp here is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

Remember, this is Tokatu Peninsula – a fairly exposed beginner-friendly spot, but it’s often crowded, so expect company on the good days. That 6ft swell is right in the sweet spot for learning, not too intimidating. The longer period swells like on Friday the 17th might break a bit straight here, but it’s still clean enough to have fun on a longboard.

Stay patient, keep an eye on that Monday the 21st, and I’ll see you in the water.

Rusty.

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