Surf Forecasts:
Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 18s period, E swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 18s period, E swell with 96 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 18s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tokatu Peninsula this week:
The surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 18s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Tokatu Peninsula in the next 16 days are 0.4m 18s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Friday (Jul 17) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 18s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 18s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s size up Tokatu Peninsula.
The next week and a half is a real bummer. From Thursday the 16th all the way through late July, the swell is tiny – mostly under 2ft – and the combined energy is in the single digits or low double digits (7 to 96). That’s barely a ripple. The wind is mostly cross-off or light, so the ocean is clean, but there’s nothing to ride. Water temp is 59°, right on the mark for this time of year.
You get a little offshore breeze on Tuesday the 21st afternoon, but still only 0.7ft. Not worth getting wet for.
Then on Wednesday the 29th morning, we finally get a pulse: 5ft north swell with a short period of 6 seconds. The combined energy hits 212, and the wind goes glassy. That’s the real highlight. The break handles the north swell well, and 5ft is a fun size for a beginner-friendly spot. The short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy, but glassy conditions will make it clean. Crowds are “often,” so you’ll have company.
Thursday morning the 30th sees a big jump to 10ft north swell and massive energy of 1209, but that’s way too big for beginners and the wind turns cross-on. That’s for experts only, and the wind will ruin it. After that, it drops off fast into onshore winds and chop.
The only real call is Wednesday the 29th morning. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only wave in town after a long flat spell. Get out there early.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 14 | E 18 | E 17 | E 17 | E 15 | E 15 | E 15 | E 14 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | E 11 | N 7 | N 8 | E 6 | N 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 4 | 16 | 26 | 93 | 89 | 74 | 72 | 38 | 36 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 8:39PM2.81m | 9:05AM2.67m | 9:30PM2.81m | 9:56AM2.66m | 10:19PM2.77m | 10:46AM2.62m | 11:07PM2.71m | 11:34AM2.56m | 11:53PM2.61m | 12:22PM2.48m | 00:40AM2.50m | 1:11PM2.38m | 1:27AM2.39m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:36PM0.26m | 3:09AM0.39m | 3:24PM0.27m | 3:58AM0.40m | 4:11PM0.33m | 4:46AM0.43m | 4:58PM0.44m | 5:34AM0.49m | 5:46PM0.58m | 6:21AM0.57m | 6:38PM0.71m | 7:09AM0.67m | 7:32PM0.82m | ||||||||
 | |  | | |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:28 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — |
 | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
Feels °C | 12 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 11 | E 14 | E 18 | E 17 | E 17 | E 15 | E 15 | E 15 | E 14 | E 14 | E 13 | E 13 | E 12 | E 12 | E 12 | E 11 | N 7 | N 7 | N 8 | E 6 | N 7 |
| kJ | 2 | 16 | 26 | 93 | 89 | 74 | 72 | 38 | 36 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 10 | E 10 | E 14 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 10 | N 10 | N 9 | N 9 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 9 | N 8 | E 11 | E 11 | E 6 | N 7 | E 5 |
| kJ | 4 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 4 | NE 10 | NE 9 | — | — | — | N 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 9 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 |
| kJ | 1 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | SSW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | — | SW 2 | — | WNW 3 | WNW 3 | SW 3 | S 3 | SSW 2 | SSW 3 | SSW 2 |
| kJ | — | — | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 58 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 67 | 190 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 203 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Northland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tokatu Peninsula Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tokatu Peninsula provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tokatu Peninsula can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tokatu Peninsula) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Tokatu Peninsula is 49 km (30 miles) from the city of Northshore. If you plan a holiday in Northland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Northshore. Northshore has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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