Tokatu Peninsula Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's take a good look at what Tokatu Peninsula has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

Alright, I'm not gonna sugarcoat it – the immediate outlook here is a bit of a tough one. We've got a pretty long dry spell on the cards. There's nothing worth getting wet for until we get to the coast. The first real glimmer of swell that's even worth talking about doesn't show up until the second week, so we're looking at a good long gap of flat or near-flat conditions.

Let's start from the top. On Wednesday the 12th, we see a pulse of swell from the NE at 7 ft, but it's coming in with a short 8-second period and a stiff 30 km/h cross-shore wind from the ENE. The water's sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year. The combined energy is moderate at 441, but honestly, the conditions are just poor – lumpy and messy.

We get a brief moment of hope on Thursday morning the 13th. The swell drops to 4 ft from the NE, but the wind swings around to the WSW at a light 10 km/h, turning cross-offshore. Things clean right up, and you get some glassy conditions on Thursday afternoon with the wind going dead calm. The waves are small though, just 3 ft, and the energy is weak (79). It's surfable, but very ordinary – a longboard maybe, if you're desperate.

From Friday the 14th all the way through to Sunday the 23rd, it’s a real struggle. Swell heights drop into the decimals – 2 ft, 2 ft, 1 ft, 1.0 ft, and even 0.3 ft. The combined energy is pitiful, mostly under 100. The winds are mostly offshore or clean, but there's just no power in the water. A few sessions have that glassy look, but you'd be bobbing around mostly. It's a proper dead period.

Now, the diary starts to change as we hit the week of the 24th. On Monday the 24th, a new windswell arrives from the N, with a 4 ft on the afternoon. The problem? It's short period (5 seconds) and the wind is a moderate cross-onshore from the NE at 25 km/h, making it choppy. The energy bumps up to 103, but it's not clean.

The best, and really the most notable, window in the entire fortnight is Tuesday morning the 25th of August. The swell is up to 5 ft from the N, with an 8-second period, but the energy is strong at 285. However, the wind is howling from the NE at 45 km/h, a strong cross-onshore. It's messy. This setup is just too raw for a good paddle session. If you're a kiter, you'd be eyeing this week off. The afternoon drops to 3 ft but the wind stays nasty at 45 km/h from the ENE. We get a brief respite on Wednesday the 26th with a clean cross-offshore wind from the WSW, but by then the swell is down to 2 ft.

The last few days from the 26th to the 27th are back to tiny, clean waves (2 ft to 2 ft) but with strong to fresh cross-offshore winds. The energy is weak (48-61).

So, the standout? If you're a patient beginner or just want a float, the best on offer is actually Tokatu Peninsula on Thursday the 13th and the following day. The swell is small (4 ft on Thursday morning, dropping to 3 ft in the glassy afternoon) from the NE, and the winds are light or calm. It's clean, but it's small and weak. It's the best of a bad bunch. For anyone else, this is a two-week period to check the kite forecast and wait for the next system to line up properly. The second week looks more promising for size, but the wind needs to play ball.

Rusty

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