Surf Forecasts:
Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast from 11 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 18 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, NNE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 18 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 7s period, NNE swell with 517 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 18 Sep, 12AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 7s period with NNE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tokatu Peninsula this week:
The surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.3m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Tokatu Peninsula in the next 16 days are 2.3m 7s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be glassy at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 7s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Tokatu Peninsula.
Alright, let’s be straight with you. For the next week and a half, it's looking pretty bleak. We’re locked into a long stretch of tiny, weak swell with cross-off winds that might look clean but there’s just no push behind it. The energy readings are way down in the low range, barely a ripple. You’re looking at a massive gap from now, right through until the 17th of September, with nothing worth paddling out for. Then on the 17th, the swell shows up but it's short period windswell and comes with onshore winds and rain – a total write-off.
The first real flicker of hope comes on the morning of Friday the 18th of September. There’s a jump to 6ft swell from the NNE, with a moderate cross-off breeze cleaning it up. The combined energy is moderate, but the period is only 8 seconds. This is a bit of a junky, fat windswell. For the experienced surfer, there might be a few closeouts, but nothing to get excited about.
Then, after another dry spell, the standout window lands right at the end of the forecast on Saturday the 26th of September. Saturday afternoon shows a solid 7ft swell from the east, and the wind is a clean cross-off. The energy is pumping, a solid increase. The period is short at 7 seconds though, so it won't have that long, drawn-out wall. This is a punchy, powerful windswell. Because it’s over 5ft, it's not for beginners, and at 7ft with that short period, it’s going to be a bit of a handful. For the experienced crew on a bigger board, it could be a fun, punchy afternoon. But don't expect perfection. This is a late call and the models might still shift.
In short, the 26th is your one shot in the whole 16-day window. Everything else is a skunk.
- Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Sat morning, light winds from the WSW by Sun night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 12 | ENE 9 | NNE 12 | NNE 13 | NNE 13 | NNE 13 | NNE 13 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NE 13 | NE 13 | NE 12 | NE 12 | N 5 | N 6 | NNE 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 24 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 51 | 170 | 517 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | on | on | on | glassy |
High Tide | 7:35AM2.66m | 7:51PM2.75m | 8:21AM2.69m | 8:36PM2.72m | 9:06AM2.67m | 9:19PM2.66m | 9:49AM2.62m | 10:01PM2.57m | 10:31AM2.54m | 10:43PM2.46m | 11:12AM2.44m | 11:25PM2.36m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:35AM0.47m | 1:53PM0.41m | 2:19AM0.43m | 2:36PM0.42m | 3:01AM0.43m | 3:17PM0.47m | 3:42AM0.46m | 3:59PM0.54m | 4:22AM0.52m | 4:42PM0.64m | 5:03AM0.61m | 5:27PM0.74m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | |  | | | | | |  | | | |  | |  | |
 | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:22 | — | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — |
 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | NNE 12 | NNE 13 | NNE 13 | NNE 13 | NNE 13 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NE 11 | NE 13 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | E 13 |
| kJ | 8 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 12 | NE 12 | ENE 9 | NE 9 | E 9 | E 9 | E 8 | N 13 | N 13 | N 13 | E 9 | N 12 | NE 13 | NE 11 | N 11 | NE 11 | NE 10 | E 13 | — |
| kJ | 24 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 13 | NE 13 | NE 13 | N 16 | N 14 | N 14 | N 14 | E 8 | E 9 | E 8 | N 12 | E 9 | N 12 | N 11 | E 8 | N 11 | — | E 10 | — |
| kJ | 17 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 4 | SW 5 | SW 4 | SSW 4 | SW 4 | SW 4 | SW 3 | SSW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | SW 3 | WSW 3 | — | — | N 5 | N 6 | NNE 7 |
| kJ | 25 | 62 | 46 | 31 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 51 | 170 | 517 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 22 | 107 | 114 | 22 | 22 | 78 | 184 | 203 | 78 | 203 | 67 | 78 | 199 | 107 | 208 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Northland | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tokatu Peninsula Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tokatu Peninsula provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tokatu Peninsula can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tokatu Peninsula) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Tokatu Peninsula is 49 km (30 miles) from the city of Northshore. If you plan a holiday in Northland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Northshore. Northshore has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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