Surf Forecasts:
Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 3PM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 6s period, N swell with 171 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tokatu Peninsula this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Tokatu Peninsula in the next 16 days are 1.5m 6s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Friday (Sep 18) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 3PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 5ft (1.5m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s cut to the chase. This forecast is about as flat as it gets. The first bit of anything worth mentioning isn’t until September 17th, and even that’s a letdown.
We’ve got a small pulse of swell at around 3 feet, but the wind is all wrong, blowing cross-on, and the swell is short-period, just 5 seconds. The energy is weak, only 55. It’s going to be a choppy, gutless mess. Not the day to be out.
That afternoon, the swell bumps up a bit, but the wind shifts more onshore and the energy climbs to 183. That’s more power, but it’s still a poor-quality wave. For a beginner, this is already on the edge of being too big, and with that wind, it’s not a friendly wave.
Then, it just dies. For a solid week, from the 18th through the 27th, we are looking at surf in the 0.3 to 0.6 foot range. It’s a complete drought. The wind is often offshore or cross-off, which is a tease because there’s nothing to ride. The energy readings are in the single digits, sometimes barely a blip. It’s a waiting game.
Now, on the 28th, we get a small bump. Swell comes up to around 3 feet with a slightly better 9-second period. The energy is moderate at 129. But the wind is cross-on and it’s choppy. It’s still poor, and definitely not worth getting excited about.
That’s the whole picture. No standout days, no glory. Just a flat, drawn-out run. The lack of any consistent surf is pretty typical for this area, so don't think anything is broken. Your best bet is to find another hobby for a couple of weeks.
With the poor wave quality and the onshore winds on the few days with any size, this is a better setup for a kiteboard. For the surfer, it’s a hard pass.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 16°C on Thu morning, min 10°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (light winds from the SSW on Tue morning, fresh winds from the N by Thu afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 17mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Thu night). Mainly strong winds. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NE 13 | NE 13 | NE 13 | NE 12 | N 5 | N 6 | N 7 | N 7 | NE 8 | NNE 8 | E 13 | E 12 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 | E 11 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 14 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 45 | 171 | 55 | 24 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:19PM2.66m | 9:49AM2.62m | 10:01PM2.57m | 10:31AM2.54m | 10:43PM2.46m | 11:12AM2.44m | 11:25PM2.36m | 11:54AM2.33m | 00:08AM2.26m | 12:39PM2.23m | 00:54AM2.17m | 1:31PM2.15m | 1:44AM2.10m | ||||||
Low Tide | 3:42AM0.46m | 3:59PM0.54m | 4:22AM0.52m | 4:42PM0.64m | 5:03AM0.61m | 5:27PM0.74m | 5:45AM0.71m | 6:16PM0.84m | 6:31AM0.81m | 7:09PM0.93m | 7:20AM0.90m | 8:04PM0.99m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | |  | |  |  |  |  | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 6:20 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:15 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — |
 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 13 | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NNE 12 | NE 11 | NE 13 | NE 11 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | N 7 | N 7 | NE 8 | NNE 8 | NE 10 | NE 10 | E 11 | NW 5 | N 7 | E 11 |
| kJ | 14 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 13 | N 12 | N 12 | NE 13 | NE 11 | NE 13 | NE 11 | N 11 | E 13 | NE 12 | NE 11 | NNW 7 | N 7 | E 13 | E 12 | NE 9 | E 11 | E 11 | N 5 |
| kJ | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | NE 14 | SE 5 | N 12 | N 11 | N 11 | N 11 | N 10 | E 13 | E 10 | E 12 | NE 11 | E 13 | — | — | E 10 | NE 8 | N 5 | — |
| kJ | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 1 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 3 | SSW 2 | — | SW 3 | SSW 2 | — | NW 3 | N 5 | N 6 | SSW 4 | SW 4 | SSW 5 | SW 5 | SW 4 | SW 4 | WSW 4 | SW 4 | SW 4 | SSW 4 |
| kJ | 3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2 | 45 | 171 | 42 | 28 | 91 | 89 | 45 | 29 | 32 | 40 | 21 | 26 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 73 | 73 | 203 | 203 | 212 | 358 | 103 | 358 | 369 | 13 | 78 | 114 | 209 | 294 | 335 | 358 | 358 | 294 | 203 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Northland | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tokatu Peninsula Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tokatu Peninsula provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tokatu Peninsula can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tokatu Peninsula) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Tokatu Peninsula is 49 km (30 miles) from the city of Northshore. If you plan a holiday in Northland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Northshore. Northshore has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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