Surf Forecasts:
Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast from 3 Aug 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 8 Aug, 12PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 6s period, NNW swell with 198 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Tokatu Peninsula this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Tokatu Peninsula in the next 16 days are 1.7m 6s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 08) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Sat 8th Aug) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Tokatu Peninsula over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks look pretty grim for Tokatu Peninsula, to be honest. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak swell with poor conditions, then a solid pulse of energy comes through but it’s pinched by bad wind. Let’s break it down.
The first real surfable day doesn’t show up until Friday, August 14th – that’s a solid 10-day gap of nothing worth paddling for. The water temp is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The standout window is the morning of Sunday, August 16th. The swell jumps up to 10ft from the NNE, with a combined energy of 998 – that’s very strong, powerful stuff. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period wind swell, but it’s got some grunt. The wind is offshore from the WSW at 15 mph, which will keep the face clean. This is a big, powerful wave, and with the size over 8ft, this is strictly for experts only. The crowd factor is listed as “often”, so expect a few locals out for this one.
Before that, on Saturday, August 15th afternoon, we see a 7ft NNE swell, but the energy is moderate (523) and the wind is cross-off from the SW. It’s clean, but the quality is marginal. For a beginner spot, this is on the edge of being too big.
The rest of the run is either tiny (0.3ft to 2ft) or blown out with strong onshore winds. The swells on the 8th and 11th have some size (5ft to 5ft), but the wind is cross-on from the NW and ENE, making it lumpy and messy. For a fairly exposed break like Tokatu Peninsula, that’s a write-off.
To be honest, if you’re not a seasoned charger, the 16th morning is the only real blip of hope. Otherwise, it’s a long wait for the next window.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 6°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SW on Tue afternoon, light winds from the S by Wed afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat morning, min 7°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the WSW on Thu night, fresh winds from the WNW by Sat afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 13 | NE 16 | NE 15 | NE 14 | NE 13 | NE 12 | ESE 7 | ESE 6 | NE 11 | NE 18 | E 6 | N 15 | N 14 | N 14 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | NNW 6 | N 6 | N 6 | N 6 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 7 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 121 | 195 | 51 | 20 | 19 | 11 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:09AM2.45m | 10:31PM2.54m | 10:52AM2.44m | 11:14PM2.51m | 11:36AM2.42m | 11:59PM2.47m | 12:24PM2.39m | 00:49AM2.42m | 1:18PM2.36m | 1:45AM2.38m | 2:22PM2.35m | 2:49AM2.36m | 3:35PM2.38m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:21PM0.64m | 4:55AM0.63m | 5:04PM0.69m | 5:39AM0.64m | 5:53PM0.75m | 6:28AM0.65m | 6:50PM0.80m | 7:21AM0.65m | 7:52PM0.83m | 8:18AM0.65m | 8:56PM0.82m | 9:20AM0.64m | 10:02PM0.78m | ||||||||
 | |  | |  | | | | | | | | | |  |  |  | | | | | |
 | 7:16 | — | — | 7:15 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:13 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — |
 | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:37 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
Feels °C | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 5 | ENE 5 | ENE 7 | NE 8 | NE 13 | NE 12 | ESE 7 | ESE 6 | E 5 | E 7 | E 6 | E 6 | E 6 | E 6 | E 6 | NE 16 | NE 14 | NNW 6 | N 6 | N 6 | N 6 |
| kJ | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 51 | 20 | 19 | 11 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 13 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 8 | NE 8 | NE 12 | NE 12 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 10 | N 14 | N 13 | NE 10 | N 12 | NE 13 | NE 14 | NE 13 | NE 12 |
| kJ | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 8 | NE 16 | NE 15 | NE 14 | — | — | NE 9 | E 8 | E 8 | NE 18 | E 9 | N 15 | N 14 | NE 10 | NE 15 | E 6 | E 8 | N 12 | N 12 | N 12 | N 12 |
| kJ | 2 | 10 | 8 | 7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 2 | SW 3 | SW 4 | SW 4 | SSW 4 | S 4 | S 4 | SSE 4 | S 3 | S 3 | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NNW 6 | W 4 | WSW 3 | W 3 | SW 3 |
| kJ | 1 | 6 | 17 | 24 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 13 | 121 | 195 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 67 | 107 | 107 | 78 | 48 | 73 | 22 | 44 | 65 | 65 | 73 | 65 | 103 | 58 | 78 | 358 | 8 | 1 | 58 | 161 | 65 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Northland | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Tokatu Peninsula Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Tokatu Peninsula provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Tokatu Peninsula can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Tokatu Peninsula surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Tokatu Peninsula) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Tokatu Peninsula may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Tokatu Peninsula is 49 km (30 miles) from the city of Northshore. If you plan a holiday in Northland, look for hotels and other accommodation in Northshore. Northshore has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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