Tokatu Peninsula Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about what’s coming for the Tokatu Peninsula. I’ll be honest with you – for nearly the first week, there’s nothing doing. The start of the outlook is a total flat spell with garbage conditions, so you’re looking at a long dry run from now until the end of July. The first real chance to get wet doesn’t come until Wednesday the 29th of July, and it’s barely a whisper.

Wednesday 29th July – Glassy conditions in the morning and afternoon, wind is basically nothing. Swell is a tiny 2ft from the East with a nice long 13-second period, so you’ve got a little groundswell energy. The combined energy is weak at 91, so don’t expect much push. It’s rideable but very ordinary – just enough to get out there.

Then it goes quiet again. The rest of that week and into the first of August is mostly poor or flat with onshore winds. There’s a glassy moment on Saturday the 1st of August with only 1ft – not enough to get excited about.

Tuesday 4th August morning – Now we’re starting to see some life. A fresh offshore wind from the SSW hits and the swell jumps to 7ft from the SE. Problem is, that period is a super short 6 seconds. It’s a short-period windswell, so it’s going to be lumpy and weak for its size. The combined energy is a moderate 326. It’s marginal, but if you’re a local who can handle a bumpy surface, there might be a couple of corners. By the afternoon it’s 8ft and still short period at 6 seconds with 420 energy. Beginners should steer clear – this is getting too big and messy.

Wednesday 5th August – This is the standout, but it comes with a massive caveat. The morning sees a solid 12ft East swell with a 10-second period and a fresh offshore wind. The combined energy is a whopping 2134 – that’s strong wave energy, no doubt. This is big, powerful stuff. But look, this break is for experts only. 12ft with a strong offshore breeze will be jacking up fast and heavy. Beginners, do not go out there that day. The afternoon eases a bit to 10ft, but the wind is stronger at 28 mph. It’s clean, but paddling into that is a real fight.

Friday 7th August – Another headline morning. 10ft from the East with a 10-second period, clean offshore from the S. The energy is very high at 2054. The afternoon pushes to 12ft with a slightly lighter cross-offshore breeze. This is excellent for experienced surfers – powerful, clean lines. This is the best on offer across the whole outlook, no question. The swell direction from the East matches the optimum for the break, and the wind is perfect. Crowds are likely as it’s often busy, so expect company.

After that, it drops off. Sunday 9th August still has some size at 6-6ft from the ENE with a solid 11-second period, but the cross-onshore wind kills it. It’s choppy and messy, not worth the paddle.

Bottom line: The whole first week is a washout. The real action is a short window from Tuesday the 4th through to the morning of Friday the 7th of August. Wednesday the 5th and Friday the 7th are the true standouts for experts, but that huge swell on the 5th will clean up the point. For the average surfer, Tuesday the 4th might be the only day with size you can handle, but it’s messy. Keep an eye on the long range, but don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty.

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