Tiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: this stretch of the forecast is a tough one. We’re at Tiki, a point break that’s fairly consistent, but the wind gods are not playing nice for the vast majority of the outlook. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but it’s a long wait for anything that’s actually worth paddling out for.

The opening days are a write-off. From Saturday, the 18th of July, right through to Wednesday the 23rd, it’s a mess. The wind is either cross-on or onshore, and the wave quality is poor, with scores of zero. The energy is weak to moderate, with readings like 108 and 256, but it’s all blown out. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

The first real glimmer of hope shows up on Thursday morning, the 23rd of July. The wind goes glassy, and the swell is a tiny 3ft from the ESE. It’s an 8-second period, so it’s just a weak windswell, but it’s clean. The combined energy is a low 96, so it’s weak, but it’s surfable. That’s your first chance to get wet, but you’ll be hunting for every bump.

Then, on Friday morning the 24th, we get a light cross-offshore breeze and a 2ft, 8-second swell from the East. The energy is still weak at 108, but it’s clean. It’s a step up from the glassy day, but still just a small wave.

Here’s the one standout you need to circle. Saturday morning, the 25th of July. The water is a slightly cool 52°, which is normal for the time of year. The wind is a light cross-offshore, getting clean, and the swell jumps to 3ft from the SSE with a 12-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, with a moderate energy reading of 280. At Tiki, a point break, that longer period will wrap in nicely, giving you longer lines and better shape. The period is also long enough to make the paddle out easier between sets. This is the best surf on offer in the entire 16-day window. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, has good energy, and the direction is right. The crowds can be present at Tiki sometimes, so get there early.

After that high point, the rest of the forecast drops off again. The wind turns back onshore and choppy through the end of July and into early August. There’s some energy spikes on the 2nd of August with a 404 reading, but it’s a messy cross-shore wind and the swell is short period, so it’s more of a choppy, crumbly wave than anything you’d enjoy. I wouldn’t bother.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. Focus on Saturday morning, the 25th of July for the cleanest, best-shaped waves. The rest is a long slog of onshore junk.

Rusty.

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