Tiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty checkin’ in from Tiki. Gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days are a real mixed bag, and honestly, for the first week, it’s more of a waiting game than anything else. The pattern is rough to start, with a lot of strong, messy wind and poorly shaped swell. We’ve got a big gap of poor surf from now until the middle of the month, about a week of nothing worth paddling out for. After that, though, there’s a definite shift that gets the blood pumping.

Let’s start with the bad news. Saturday the 5th through to the 11th is pretty much a write-off. We’ve got a small, short-period swell bumpin’ around, but it’s getting hammered by fresh to strong cross-shore winds. The water temp is lookin’ about average for this time of year, but you won’t care about that when you’re staring at lumpy, choppy lines. The combined wave energy is weak, mostly under 100, and the swell height is tiny. It’s just not worth the effort.

The real kicker comes on Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th. A pulse of 8ft swell from the south rolls in, but it’s under a near gale. The wind is howling straight onshore, the energy jumps up to 639, but the surf is blown out, dangerous, and honestly, more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s messy windswell. Stay on the beach for that one.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window is from Monday the 14th through to Thursday the 17th. This is the best on offer. The swell direction shifts to the southeast, and the period stretches out to 12-14 seconds, which is proper groundswell. The energy is strong, over 500, and for the first time, we get clean conditions.

Monday the 14th morning is the pick. A 5ft SE swell, with a 12-second period, and a light offshore wind from the northwest. That’s the recipe for clean, lined-up waves at the point. The combined energy is 583, which is solid. It’s an intermediate-level wave, but with that offshore wind, it’ll be peeling beautifully. Just be aware, the point can get crowded sometimes, so get there early. This swell is a bit long in period, so it’ll be better here at the point than at a beach break.

Tuesday the 15th morning is a close second. Another 5ft swell, this time from the ESE with a 14-second period, and a clean cross-offshore wind. The energy is even higher, at 897. It’s going to be a rippable wave with plenty of push.

By Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th, the swell backs off a touch to 3ft to 5ft, but the wind stays favorable, with clean cross-offshore conditions. The consistency is fairly consistent here, so you’ll get waves. The morning of the 17th looks particularly good, with a 5ft SSE swell and light cross-offshore wind.

After that, the energy drops off again into the 18th and 19th, turning small and weak. There’s a glassy morning on the 18th, but with only 3ft of swell, it’s a fun longboard day, not a standout.

So, to sum it up: the first ten days are a bust. Mark your calendar for the 14th and 15th – that’s your best bet for clean, solid groundswell at Tiki. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not locked in, but the signs are all there.

Rusty.

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