Bikini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the waves on the horizon. It’s going to be a bit of a waiting game, but there are a couple of windows that could get the heart rate up, especially if you’re willing to scan the horizon for a while.

The short-term is pretty grim. We’ve got a stretch of poor conditions and junky, weak swell that’s going to test your patience. You’re looking at a solid week or more where the surf check is going to be a quick one before you head for the coffee shop. But hang tight, because the back half of this outlook has a few interesting pulses, and one morning in particular looks like it could be the standout of the whole period.

For the first several days, through the 16th, we’re looking at wind-affected, short-period slop. There’s a pulse of swell from the southeast on Friday the 14th, but the energy is weak, only around 5ft, and it’s getting chopped up by a moderate cross-offshore wind. It’s surfable but pretty average, so don’t get too excited. The weekend follows suit with more of the same, just smaller and even less organized.

We then hit a real lull. From the 17th through the 22nd, there’s basically nothing worth paddling out for. Swell heights stay under 5ft with weak energy, and we get a mix of onshore, cross-onshore, and messy cross-shore winds that will have you fighting the surface conditions more than riding the waves. The 20th has a bit more size but the wind is strong and blowing straight across it, making it a complete mess. I wouldn’t bother; that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing to be honest.

Things start to perk up on Sunday the 23rd. We see a proper groundswell from the south with a longer period of 12 seconds and moderate energy at 520 in the morning. The problem is it’s pretty much a dead onshore wind that day, so while there’s a bit of push, the quality is going to be poor. That onshore wind sticks around for a couple of days, keeping the surf feeling fat and uninviting.

Now, let's get to the part you've been waiting for. The real highlight is Thursday the 27th. The morning session at Bikini (Marshall Islands) is the one to circle on the calendar. We’ve got a clean 5ft of east-southeast swell at 10 seconds, which is prime for the break’s orientation. The kicker is the light east-northeast cross-offshore wind and a combined swell energy reading of 535 which means there’s some real push in the water. This is the best combo of size, direction, and wind we see for the whole period. It’s not massive, but it’ll be clean, fun, and well-shaped. I’d be surprised if you weren't smiling ear to ear. The afternoon backs off a touch in the quality stakes, but the morning is the one.

Earlier on the 24th and 25th, there is some small surf from the south-southeast, but it’s just light and cross-onshore, so the conditions will be a bit bumpy. That 27th is the day. The following Saturday the 29th looks glassy in the morning with a slight east swell, but it's only around 3ft, so it will be small and more of a fun, longboard-style wave.

Two things worth noting: the water temp right now is sitting at about 52° Fahrenheit, which is close to what you’d expect for this time of year, so a good winter suit is still the call. Also, Bikini can be a bit of a circus with the crowds, so on that standout day, you’ll want to be early to get a peak to yourself.

So, stay patient. The first week and a half is a write-off. The swell on the 27th is the one to build your schedule around. It’s a while out, so don’t hold me to it, but it’s a promising outlook for a Thursday.

Rusty.

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