Bikini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are a tough watch for Bikini (beach and point). The swell is tiny and the conditions are mostly messy, so don’t get your hopes up too high.

We start off with a real flat spell. Tuesday the 28th of July through to Thursday the 31st of July, you’re looking at weak, short-period slop – mostly around 1 ft to 3 ft from the SSE or E, with onshore or cross-shore breezes messing it up. The combined swell energy is weak, sitting between 34 and 112 (78 to 112). The water is sitting at 54°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small comfort. But honestly, there’s nothing worth paddling out for.

Friday the 31st of July afternoon shows a little pulse of life – 4 ft from the E with a moderate offshore NNE breeze at 12 mph, and the combined energy bumps up to 163. The conditions are clean, but the wave comment says it’s just surfable waves with very ordinary conditions. Not a standout, but it’s the first sign of something.

The weekend of the 1st and 2nd of August is a write-off again – fresh cross-onshore winds, lumpy, and weak swell. The combined energy on Saturday afternoon hits 159, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the SW, making it a mess. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Monday the 3rd of August morning is borderline – clean conditions with a cross-off ENE breeze at 16 mph, and 3 ft from the SSE at 10 seconds. The combined energy is 175. Still small, but clean. The afternoon is similar, with 3 ft and 193. Not a standout, but a step in the right direction.

The real standout, and the only one I’d get excited about, is Wednesday the 5th of August. The morning offers 4 ft from the SE, with a gentle offshore NNE breeze at 9 mph, clean conditions, and a combined energy of 175. The afternoon is similar, with 4 ft from the SE, offshore N wind at 9 mph, and a combined energy of 194. This is the best on offer – clean, offshore, and small but rideable. The swell direction matches the guidance optimum from the S, so it’s working well for Bikini’s exposed setup. The break is a beach and point, and it’s very consistent, so you can expect some waves. But with crowds marked as “often”, expect a few others on it too.

After that, the second week gets messy again. Friday the 7th of August morning has 4 ft from the SSW at 6 seconds, with a clean cross-off breeze, but that period is short and the combined energy is 272. The afternoon sees a fresh 22 mph WSW cross-onshore, making it lumpy. Saturday the 8th of August morning is similar – 5 ft from the SSW at 7 seconds, clean cross-off, but a short period again. The swell is bumping, but the quality isn’t there.

Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th of August see a bigger, longer-period swell from the S – 4 ft to 4 ft, with periods of 11 to 12 seconds, and combined energy hitting 570 to 680. That’s strong wave energy. But the wind is cross-onshore at 9 to 19 mph, making it choppy and lumpy. The long period suggests better-shaped waves, but at a beach-and-point break, it might break a bit straight. For experts, it could be worth a look, but the conditions aren’t doing it any favours.

Tuesday the 11th of August through Wednesday the 12th of August, the swell drops back to 3 ft to 4 ft from the S and SSE, with periods of 12 to 14 seconds. Combined energy is still strong (327 to 610). The wind is cross-shore or cross-off, with clean conditions on Wednesday morning. But again, the wave comments are marginal or poor. It’s not a standout.

So, the best bet is Wednesday the 5th of August – clean, offshore, small but fun. The rest of the window is mostly flat, windy, or messy. Forecasts can change, but for now, keep your expectations low.

Rusty.

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