Bikini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here, lookin’ at the next 16 days for Bikini. Gotta be straight with you from the jump – it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is a real mixed bag, and we’re gonna have to wait for the magic to line up.

First, the pattern. We’ve got a bit of a messy start with small, weak pulses. The swell energy is low, and the wind is all over the place. For the first few days, it’s gonna be a struggle to find anything decent. There’s a big spike of energy on the 7th, but it’s gonna be a total mess with howling onshore winds, so that’s a write-off for us. After that, we settle into a long period of small, weak, and often wind-affected waves. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about.

Let’s break it down. Wednesday morning the 5th, we’ve got tiny 2ft surf from the SE with a 9-second period. The combined energy is a weak 78, and while the wind is a light cross-off, it’s just not enough to get excited about. The afternoon drops even smaller. Thursday the 6th is worse, with a glassy 1ft morning, but again, it’s barely a ripple. The real kicker comes Friday the 7th. A massive 10ft swell from the S hits, but it’s accompanied by a 25 mph onshore wind. The energy is a whopping 1689, but it’s a total blown-out, dangerous mess. This is strictly for experts, if anyone's crazy enough, and even then, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

The whole second week is grim. From the 8th right through to the 20th, we’re looking at a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. The swell is almost always under 5ft, often with moderate to fresh onshore or cross-shore winds. There are a few moments where the wind turns offshore or cross-off, like on the 14th afternoon with a 3ft SSE swell, or the 19th and 20th with clean offshore winds and 3ft ESE swell. The energy on those days is still weak (around 150-200), but the conditions are clean. The 20th morning has a moderate offshore with a 3ft, 10-second period swell, which is the best of a bad bunch.

The only real standout in this whole 16-day window is that Thursday morning the 20th. The wind is a moderate offshore from the N, the swell is a clean 3ft from the ESE with a longer 10-second period, and the energy is 159. It’s small, but it will be clean and lined up at Bikini, a beach and point break that’s very consistent and exposed to the S. For a point break, that longer period means the waves will have some shape. Just be aware the crowds are listed as "often", so expect some company. It’s the best chance for a few fun, clean waves, but it’s a long way off, so don’t book the trip just yet.

So, to sum it up: there’s a long gap of poor surf from the 7th right through to the 19th. The only flicker of hope is that Thursday the 20th with clean offshore conditions and a small, workable swell. Keep your eyes on the forecast, things can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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