Bikini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about Bikini. This is a beach and point setup, exposed to the south swell, and it’s a spot that needs everything to line up. Looking at the whole 16-day window, I’ve got to be honest with you – it’s a tough stretch. The first few days are a write-off, and even when it gets a little better, it’s nothing to write home about. The only real window of opportunity shows up way down the track, but we’ll get to that.

We kick off on Monday, 20th July, and it’s grim. Wind is cross, the swell’s a messy 5ft from the SSE with a short 7-second period, and the combined energy is sitting at 268 (moderate energy, but it’s a choppy mess). The water is 53°F, which is about normal for this time of year, but that doesn’t help the waves. The forecast says “poor surf conditions” and that’s exactly what it is. Tuesday and Wednesday are no better – cross-onshore winds, lumpy, choppy, and the swell stays small and weak. The energy drops into the 100s, and it’s just not worth paddling out.

Then we get a little flicker of hope. Thursday morning, 23rd July, the wind goes glassy, light from the ESE, and the swell is a tiny 3ft from the ESE. The energy is only 100 (weak), but it’s clean. The afternoon turns clean with a light cross-off breeze. Friday and Saturday follow a similar pattern – small waves, 2ft to 3ft, but with clean conditions. The best part of this mini-run is Sunday, 26th July, through to Tuesday, 28th July. The wind is offshore or light, the swell is a consistent 3ft from the east, with periods of 8 to 10 seconds. The energy is in the 130 to 152 range (weak to low-moderate), but the waves are clean and the wind is favourable. The standout morning here is Tuesday, 28th July – clear skies, gentle offshore breeze from the NNE, and the swell is 3ft at 10 seconds from the east. It’s small, but it’s the best we’ll see for a while. The break is “very consistent” here, so you’ll get waves, but it’s an advanced spot, so keep that in mind. It’s exposed to the south, but the swell is coming from the east, which is a bit off the optimum, but it’s still surfable. Crowds are “often” a thing here, so be prepared to share the peak.

After that, we hit a rough patch. From Wednesday, 29th July, right through to the end of the forecast on Tuesday, 4th August, it’s a wasteland. The swell drops to 2ft or less, the wind turns cross-on or cross-off, and the energy is down in the 20s and 60s (weak to very weak). The waves are poor, small, and messy. A few days have a long period swell from the south (13-14 seconds) but it’s small and mismatched with the wind. That long period at a beach setup like this can make it break too straight, and with light cross-onshore winds, it’s just not happening.

The only true standout in this whole 16-day stretch is that Tuesday, 28th July morning. It’s small, clean, and the wind is offshore. It’s not a day for big waves, but it’s the cleanest, most surfable session on offer. The confidence is pretty high for that window because it’s close in. For the rest of the second week, especially the last few days of July and into August, it’s a long gap with nothing to recommend. The energy is too weak, and the wind is never right. This spot can be a bit of a desert when the swell doesn’t line up, and this is one of those stretches. It’s a blank run, but for this area, that’s not unusual.

Rusty.

Read more