Bikini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Morning, surfers. Rusty here, checking in on the long-range forecast for our stretch of coast. I’m not going to lie to you, the first week and a half is going to test your soul. We’ve got a lot of small, wind-whipped slop to get through before things finally turn on. But don’t hang up your board shorts yet, because there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s looking like a proper session.

The overall pattern is pretty bleak for the first nine days. We’re looking at a lot of weak, short-period swell with poor winds. The waves that do show up are going to be small and messy, with a constant cross-chop. It’s the kind of stretch where you’re better off checking your dings or doing literally anything else. We’re talking days of nothing over 4ft and most of it in the 1ft to 2ft range. There’s no punch, no power, and the wind is just going to chop it all up.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Sunday the 20th. The morning shows the swell bumping up to 5ft from the east with a short 7-second period. The wind is a clean cross-offshore, which is a major plus, and the energy reading is up to 222. It’s not the cleanest or most powerful swell we’ll see, but after a week of junk, clean 5ft waves will feel like a party. The afternoon backs off a bit to 4ft. It’s a start.

Then we hit another flat, grovelly patch. The energy drops out, and the wind goes onshore again. It’s a frustrating yo-yo. Monday the 21st is poor with onshore wind. Tuesday the 22nd is back to small, choppy junk. But then Wednesday the 23rd morning offers a little more hope, with 3ft of south swell at an 11-second period, clean under a cross-offshore breeze. Again, not big, but clean and with a longer period is a better sign of things to come.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Monday the 28th of September. That morning, the stars finally align. We see a solid 6ft of south swell wrapping in, and the energy reading jumps to 521, which is strong and powerful for our coast. The period is a decent 9 seconds, and the wind is light offshore from the east, leaving the surface glassy. This is a proper surf day. The fetch and direction are working. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon before, on Sunday the 27th, gets big and messy, so that’s not the call.

The period energy carries into the next morning, Tuesday the 29th, but the conditions start to deteriorate with a strong breeze and a shorter period. Still, the direction is more southeasterly, which might offer a different look. But the standout remains Monday the 28th.

For the best of it, we’re talking about Bikini (Bikini). It’s a beach and point setup that loves this south swell direction. On Monday morning the 28th, it’s going to be solid at 6ft from the south. The swell direction is spot on for this spot. The light offshore wind will have it looking clean and lined up. It’s an advanced wave, so the bigger size will keep the crowds a bit more manageable, though they can still be likely out there when it’s good. This is the pick of the entire window.

For the beginners out there, this is not your day. On the 28th, that 6ft is way over the comfort zone. And later that afternoon the wind swings cross and it’ll chop up fast.

Also, keep a note for Sunday the 20th. While smaller, the morning session at Bikini could be a fun, clean one for a wider range of skills at 5ft from the east. It’s a shorter period, so it might be a bit lumpy, but the clean conditions will make it more user-friendly.

Water temp is about average for this time of year, so a summer wetsuit is the call.

So, there you have it. A whole lot of nothing to start, then a fantastic window right at the end. Don’t burn yourself out chasing the small stuff. Save your energy for Monday the 28th. That’s the one.

Rusty, out.

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