El Morro de la Virgen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for El Morro de la Virgen is a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s a lean spell. There’s a big gap of nothing worthwhile at the start, and even when we get a pulse of swell, the conditions are fighting us. Let’s walk through it.

The first few days are a write-off. From Friday the 28th of August right through to Monday the 31st, we’re stuck with tiny, weak waves under 2 ft, mostly onshore or cross-onshore winds, and surfless energy readings down in the dumps (12 to 138 units). It’s flat, choppy, and not worth paddling for.

Tuesday the 1st of September sees a little kick in energy (124 to 189 units) with 3 ft to 4 ft of east swell, a clean cross-off wind from the SSW, but the wave comment still says “poor surf conditions.” It’s a step up, but not a good one.

The best chance in the first week comes on Wednesday the 2nd of September morning. We’ve got a 3 ft east swell with a period of 9 seconds, light offshore wind from the west (5 km/h, or 3 mph), and clean conditions. The combined energy is moderate (153 units). The water temp is sitting at 52°F, which is about 2°F cooler than average for this time of year – not a huge anomaly, but it’s a bit nippy. The surf is still only described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” so don’t expect anything memorable. It’s the only morning in the first week that’s truly clean, and it’s a small one.

From there, we hit another dry patch. Thursday the 3rd to Saturday the 5th of September is mostly cross-shore or clean but tiny – 2 ft to 3 ft – with energy bouncing around (77 to 167 units). Saturday afternoon on the 5th gets a glassy 2 ft south swell with a long 12-second period, giving 167 units of energy. The period is a positive, but the size is tiny. It’s clean, but it’s barely a wave.

Now, the second week opens up with a pulse. Sunday the 6th of September morning shows 5 ft of SSE swell, 12-second period, and 569 units of energy, but it’s onshore from the east and the comment is “poor surf conditions.” By afternoon, the swell jumps to 6 ft with a 14-second period and a massive 1113 units of energy, but the cross-onshore wind (ENE at 20 km/h, or 12 mph) makes it choppy. This is the kind of energy that could be something, but the wind is ruining it.

The standout in the entire forecast is Thursday the 10th of September morning. This is a serious pulse: 12 ft of SSE swell with a 12-second period, and the combined energy is a whopping 5877 units – that’s strong to very strong. The wind is a gentle cross-onshore from the NE at 15 km/h (9 mph), which is messy, but the report says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” For the experienced crew, this is a big, powerful groundswell. At 12 ft, this is expert territory only – too big for beginners. The long period (12s) means it’s got grunt, but at a beach break it might close out. Keep an eye on the tide. The water temp is still around 52°F, so bring a thick suit.

Friday the 11th of September keeps the swell going at 8 ft to 8 ft with a 13 to 12-second period, but the energy is still strong (2168 to 1582 units). The wind is cross-onshore and getting fresh (30 km/h, or 19 mph), so it’s lumpy and poor.

Saturday the 12th of September morning has 6 ft of ESE swell, a 10-second period, and 862 units of energy, with light cross-onshore wind. The report says “marginal,” but it’s a last chance for a wave before the window closes.

Overall, the only real standout is the big swell on Thursday the 10th of September for the experts. The rest of the period is small, messy, or both. Don’t get your hopes up for most of it.

- Rusty

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