El Morro de la Virgen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The forecast for our stretch of coast is a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’ve got a long window ahead, and for the most part, it’s looking pretty average. The standout windows are few and far between, so you’ll want to pick your sessions wisely.

The water’s hanging around 54°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year. Nothing wild there.

The first real chance for a surf comes Monday the 10th. It’s not going to blow your mind, but we've got a clean 7ft south swell with a 12-second period. The energy is strong, coming in at 1098. It's a bit of a junky, crumbly wave though. It’s a start, but don’t expect perfection.

Then the wheels fall off for a stretch. From Tuesday the 11th through to the 23rd, it’s basically one long run of poor, choppy, onshore slop. There's a small window on Sunday the 16th afternoon when the wind goes glassy and it cleans up, but the swell’s tiny, only 4ft, and pretty weak. Not worth getting too excited about. We’re looking at a solid week to ten days of pretty ordinary conditions. It’s the kind of run where you check the cams, sigh, and find something else to do.

Now, the real news. The one true standout is Monday the 24th. It’s over a week away, so take it with a grain of salt, but the models are showing a solid pulse of south swell. We’re talking 8ft in the morning, building from the SSE with a 12-second period. The energy jumps up to 1543, which is serious. This will be a proper, powerful swell. It might be a bit raw and cross-chop in the morning, but the size will be there. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s promising, but long-range stuff like this can always shift, so keep tabs on it.

Following that, Tuesday the 25th morning actually looks like the cleanest pick of the whole run. The swell eases to a still decent 6ft from the SSE, and more importantly, the wind drops out to glassy. The energy is still moderate at 895. This could be the pick of the trip – a clean, groomed version of the day before.

All in all, the bulk of the next two weeks is pretty forgettable. There’s one solid, powerful day on the 24th, and the next morning could be the one with the best conditions. Before that, you’ll be waiting through a lot of flat, blown-out days.

Rusty out.

Read more