El Morro de la Virgen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and have a listen. Rusty here.

First off, let's be honest: the next week and a half is looking pretty flat and messy for us. We've got a long stretch of weak, short-period windswell that's mostly coming from the east, which is straight onshore at our go-to spot here. The water temp is sitting at about 53°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

For the first few days, from Monday the 31st of August right through to the end of that week, it's a write-off. We're looking at tiny waves, mostly under 3 ft, with a period of 8 seconds or less. The wind is all over the place, swinging from a fresh cross-onshore breeze to a light cross-shore, but the combination of small size and short period makes for lumpy, gutless conditions. The combined swell energy is weak, hovering around 29 to 65 units. The daily score is a zero, and the comments say it all: "poor surf conditions."

We get a little glimmer of hope on Thursday the 3rd of September. The morning shows a clean, gentle offshore breeze from the WNW, and the swell bumps up to 3 ft from the east with a slightly better 10-second period. The combined energy jumps to 130 units, which is moderate. It's described as "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions," scoring a 1 out of 10. It's not going to be a classic, but if you're desperate for a paddle and a few grovelly waves, the morning window is your best bet. That clean window is short-lived, though, as the wind goes messy again that afternoon.

After that, we're back to flatness. Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are tiny, with waves dropping to 2 ft and 0.7 ft. There's a clean window on Saturday morning with a light offshore, but the swell is just too small.

Then, on Sunday the 6th of September, the ocean finally wakes up. We see a jump to 7 ft swell from the south, with a 10-second period. The combined energy rockets up to 792 units, which is strong. However, the wind is a moderate cross-offshore breeze, and the conditions are described as "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." At 7 ft, this is getting into expert territory, especially for a sheltered spot like this. The wind is clean, but the swell is solid and will be powerful. Still, with a score of 1, it's not a full green light. The afternoon drops to 6 ft but the wind picks up to a fresh 19 mph, making it choppy and difficult.

The following week is a mixed bag of moderate swell and poor wind. The swell hangs around 4 ft to 6 ft, but the wind is consistently cross-onshore from the east or southeast, making for choppy, bumpy conditions. The combined energy stays moderate, around 300 to 500 units.

There is one standout in the second week. On the 15th of September, a Tuesday, we get a solid 5 ft swell from the east-southeast with a long 12-second period, giving a combined energy of 599 units. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the WSW, which is a good direction for this break. The catch is that it's still a "marginal" call due to tide, and being 15 days out, that forecast is promising but less certain. The swell is also a long-period groundswell, which can break a bit straight at a beach break, but this is a sheltered spot, so it might shape up nicely on the reef. For the experts, this is the one to watch.

So, summing it up: the first week is a bust. The only real window for a half-decent wave is the morning of Thursday the 3rd, but keep your expectations low. The big news is the swell on the 15th of September, which could be the best of the bunch, but it's a long way off and a lot can change. There's a lot of flat, boring days in between, so don't be in a rush.

Rusty.

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