El Suicidio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Okay, I’m not gonna lie to you – this stretch is a bit of a grind. We’re looking at a solid week and a half of pretty ordinary, small surf before things finally start to look like they might come together. The first real session that’s worth getting excited about doesn’t roll in until Monday the 20th, and even then, it’s got a few caveats.

Let’s start with the only break on the radar: El Suicidio. It’s a point break, so it’s got that going for it, and it’s fairly consistent. The water temp is sitting at 52°F, which is actually about 0.7°F cooler than the long-term average for the time of year – so right around normal, nothing crazy.

The first week is a write-off. From Monday the 13th right through to Sunday the 19th, the swell is weak, with combined energy readings mostly under 100 or barely scraping into triple digits. The waves are small, mostly under 3 ft, and the wind is a mixed bag. Sure, there are some clean windows with offshore winds on Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th, but the swell is just too small and weak to get excited about. Periods are short, mostly 8 to 9 seconds, so it’s just a weak windswell. The conditions are surfable, but it’s very ordinary.

Then we hit a bit of a rough patch on the weekend. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are a total loss – cross-onshore winds, rain, and the wave heights drop to nearly nothing. That Sunday morning the 19th is a real low point, with a pathetic 0.7 ft.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Monday afternoon the 20th of July, things finally click. We get a solid push of swell from the SSE at 5 ft, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 489 (moderate wave energy), and the wind goes moderate offshore from the NNE. That’s clean, that’s rideable, and that’s the standout of the whole forecast. The SSE direction is a good match for this exposed point, so expect some fun, punchy waves.

But don’t get too comfortable. Tuesday the 21st brings a bigger swell – 5 ft from the SSE with a long 12-second period and energy up to 710 – but the wind is a fresh cross-shore from the west at 22 mph, which will chop it up badly. That’s a pass for paddle surfing; it’s looking more like a kite day.

After that, we slide back into a long, quiet run. From Wednesday the 22nd all the way through to the end of the forecast on Tuesday the 28th, the swell is tiny and inconsistent. The energy drops off, the winds are mostly onshore or cross-off, and the wave heights struggle to reach 3 ft. There is a brief glimmer on Sunday morning the 26th of July – clean 3 ft swell from the ESE with an 11-second period and energy of 279 – but the wind is a moderate cross-off from the ENE, meaning it’s clean but not glassy. It’s a ‘marginal’ call. Nothing to write home about.

So, if you’re asking me, the one true standout is that Monday afternoon the 20th at El Suicidio. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best we get in this 16-day window. The rest is a long, slow wait.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty.

Read more