The Bubble Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up: this 16-day stretch for The Bubble is a tough one. We’ve got a consistent north-northwest swell window, but the wind just won’t play ball for most of it.

The whole forecast is plagued by persistent cross-onshore winds. For a spot like The Bubble, a reef break that needs clean conditions, that's a death sentence for quality. The water temp is sitting at a warm 75°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s about the only good news.

We kick off on Monday, September 7th, with a small 2ft swell from the NNW, but that 25 km/h cross-on wind from the NNE has it chopped up and messy. The combined wave energy is weak at 349. That’s a one-star surf at best.

Tuesday and Wednesday stay small, with swell sticking under 4ft and the wind still howling from the same ugly direction. The period drops to a short, weak 7 seconds on Wednesday, so even the little bumps we get won't have any push. The combined energy drops into the 200s.

Thursday the 10th through Saturday the 12th sees the swell build a little, hitting 6ft on Saturday, but it’s all north wind, cross-onshore, and choppy. The energy climbs to a moderate 494 by Saturday morning, but the wind will ruin it. This is a kite surfer’s setup, not a paddle surfer’s.

We get a brief break on Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th with lighter winds. The swell drops back to 3ft to 4ft, but the period stretches out to a nice 13 seconds on Monday – that’s proper groundswell. The wind is light cross-onshore though, so it won’t be glassy. The energy sits around 300, which is weak.

From Tuesday the 16th onwards, it’s more of the same. Swell tries to build again into the 6ft to 6ft range by Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, with energy hitting a moderate 822. But that wind is still cross-onshore from the north at 20-30 km/h. The waves will have size, but they’ll be ragged and lumpy. For an expert reef break, that’s a no-go.

The latter half of the second week, from Saturday the 19th through Tuesday the 22nd, sees the swell slowly fade back down. The winds finally shift more onshore from the NE on the 19th and 20th, but then pick up to a fresh 35 km/h by the 22nd, kicking up a messy cross-onshore chop. The energy drops right off.

Honestly, this is one of those forecasts where you’re better off waiting for the next system. There’s no standout window here. The north swell window is open, but the wind just won’t let it happen. Don't force it.

Rusty.

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