The Bubble Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let me be straight with you about The Bubble. The next couple of weeks are a tough watch. There's a massive dry spell at the start. From Monday 31st August right through to the morning of Wednesday 9th September, it's just one bad report after another. The wind is rubbish, mostly a cross-onshore breeze around 12–22 mph, and it’s killing any chance of a clean wave. The swell is there, just under 3–6 ft, but it’s messy, short period stuff around 7–8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (223–418). It's a total write-off for a paddle surf. Honestly, with that persistent cross-onshore wind and a beach setup, it looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for that whole first stretch.

The only flicker of hope comes on Wednesday 9th September. The early morning looks like a real odd one out. The wind swings to a cross-offshore breeze at 9 mph from the WNW. For the first time in nearly two weeks, it’s clean. The swell is a modest 4 ft from the north, with an 8-second period, and the combined swell energy is moderate (296). But here's the kicker – the water is sitting at a toasty 75°. That’s about 3° warmer than usual for this time of year, which is notable. You’ll be in boardies for sure. But don’t get your hopes up too high; the forecast is still only calling it marginal, with just a score of 1. The afternoon on that same day goes back to cross-shore chop, so if you’re going to wet a line, it’s a dawn patrol mission.

After that, the outlook quickly falls apart again. From Thursday 10th September through to the middle of the second week, the winds turn back to a cross-on mess, the swell drops right off, and the combined wave energy falls to weak (60–108). There’s nothing worth paddling out for. By Tuesday 15th September, the conditions try to tidy up a little in the morning with a light 3 mph cross-on from the north, but at only 4 ft and still a marginal call, it’s not a standout in any way.

So, the one true standout, the only real chance in the whole 16-day window, is that Wednesday 9th September morning session. It's clean, the water is warm, but it’s a brief window. If you miss it, you’re waiting a long time. This is a proper blank run for the area, and it looks like it’s going to hold.

Rusty

Read more