The Bubble Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me be straight with you right off the bat: this outlook is a tough one. For the next 16 days, The Bubble is not the place to be with a surfboard. We’ve got a long, frustrating stretch of poor conditions ahead.

Looking at the whole run, from Monday the 6th of July all the way through to Tuesday the 21st of July, it’s a real heartbreaker. The combined swell energy is weak for the first week, with values in the 20s to 90s—not enough to get excited about. The wind is persistently cross-onshore or onshore, and the wave state is consistently described as “poor surf conditions.” There are no standouts, no windows of clean swell, and nothing that even gets a passing grade.

For the first few days, from Monday the 6th through Friday the 10th, we’re looking at tiny 1ft to 3ft swell from the N or NW, but the wind is a constant cross-onshore breeze from the N or NNE. The water temperature is sitting at 72°F with a positive anomaly of 2°F, so it’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when the waves are messy and weak.

We hit a small window around the 12th and 13th where the swell period jumps a little—11 seconds on Sunday morning the 12th—but the swell height is still tiny at 1ft, and the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore with moderate breeze. The combined energy creeps up to 86 and 98, but that’s still weak, and the surf quality is shot.

Then, around the 19th and 20th, things look like they might finally change. On Sunday the 19th, we see a jump in combined swell energy to 353 in the morning and 376 in the afternoon, with a 12-second period swell from the NW and heights around 3ft to 4ft. That’s moderate energy. But the wind is still fresh cross-onshore or onshore, and again, the surf is considered poor. That energy and long period would be better suited to a point or reef that can handle it, but The Bubble (this exposed reef) is getting hammered by wind chop.

Into the 20th and 21st, the swell drops back down to moderate energy (190-244) with shorter periods and again, the wind is no help. By Tuesday the 21st, we’ve got a 4ft swell from the N with a 6-second period and onshore wind—that’s just a messy, weak close-out for experts only.

So here’s the bottom line: from now through the 21st, there is no good surf on offer at The Bubble. Don’t bother paddling out here. It’s a blank run that’s more or less normal for this exposed reef when the wind is stubborn. A kite surfer might get a fun session in that fresh cross-onshore breeze on the 19th or 20th, but for a surfboard? Nothing.

Keep the boards waxed and wait for a better day, because this stretch is a write-off.

Rusty.

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