The Bubble Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for The Bubble.

Honestly, the outlook is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch ahead with nothing really worth paddling out for. The wind is stuck in a relentless cross-onshore pattern for days on end, and the swell, while it shows up, is just too short-period and messy to do anything with. The first real chance of anything even close to surfable doesn’t pop up until the very end of the month, and even then, it’s marginal.

The water temperature is sitting at 73° right now, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least a dip won’t be a shock to the system. But that’s about the only positive.

Monday, 20th July to Saturday, 1st August
This is a rough stretch. From Monday morning all the way through to the end of July, the data is all “poor surf conditions.” The swell is coming from the north or north-northeast, but the period is a short, weak 6 to 8 seconds. The combined energy values are mostly in the low to mid hundreds (239 to 602), which is weak to moderate at best, but the wind is the real killer. It’s a fresh breeze, 15 to 25 mph, blowing straight across the wave. That means the surface is going to be lumpy, choppy, and just plain messy. It’s not going to be a fun paddle.

Sunday, 2nd August
Now, this is the one day that catches the eye. On the morning of Sunday, 2nd August, we finally see a change. The swell is up to 7ft, pushing out of the north with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy jumps up to 1063, which is a solid, strong pulse of energy. The wind eases to a moderate breeze at 12 mph, still cross-on, but much more manageable. The forecast says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” but this is the best we’ll see in the whole 16-day window. At 7ft, this is expert territory, not for beginners. The north swell direction is not at all what this reef wants to see, but if the tide and wind line up for a window, there could be a few. It’s still a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but this is the only standout.

Monday, 3rd August to Tuesday, 4th August
After that Sunday, it’s back to the same old story. Cross-onshore wind and poor surf conditions. The energy drops back down to the 400s, and the swell stays around 6ft to 6ft, but it’s all onshore junk.

So, to wrap it up: for the next week and a half, it’s a write-off. The only real glimmer of hope is the morning of Sunday, 2nd August, with a strong north swell. It’s a long shot and it’s for experts only, but it’s the only one on the board.

Rusty.

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