The Bubble Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The Bubble is the only spot on the cards for the next 16 days, and I’ve gotta call it like I see it – it’s a bleak run for surfers.

The overall pattern is poor. We’ve got a solid 16-day window with no real quality surf to chase. The wind is a constant problem, blowing from the north to north-northeast, hitting the beach as a cross-onshore or onshore breeze for almost every session. That means choppy, lumpy, or at best, fairly choppy conditions. The swell is small and weak, mostly under 5ft, with short periods of 5 to 8 seconds, so there’s no energy or shape to get excited about.

The water temperature is sitting at 73° which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – about 3° above average. Not a game changer, but worth noting if you’re in a wetsuit.

Monday 13th July, the morning shows a little 3ft swell from the NNW with a 9-second period, but the wind is onshore and the energy is weak at 172 (moderate wave energy). The afternoon is similar but turns cross-onshore. The whole first week is basically the same story: tiny swell, short period, and a steady breeze ruining it. By Thursday 16th, the swell drops to 3ft with a period of just 5 seconds – that’s windswell mush.

The second week doesn’t get any better. Swell hovers between 3ft and 5ft, with periods stuck at 6 to 8 seconds. The wind stays relentless from the north, cross-onshore, with speeds of 12 to 19 mph. The combined energy climbs a bit – into the 200s and 300s (moderate to strong wave energy) by late July – but it’s all messy, short-period junk. By Sunday 26th July, the swell hits 6ft, but it’s still cross-onshore, making it a lumpy, challenging paddle for no reward.

The only possible standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. The Bubble is a reef break that’s consistent and exposed to the swell direction, but the wind is almost always wrong. The optimum swell direction is NNW, and we see that on the 13th, but the wind ruins it. For a couple of mornings, like Wednesday 22nd July, the wind drops to a gentle breeze, but it’s still cross-onshore and the swell is underwhelming.

Because of the persistent cross-onshore wind and small, short-period swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The waves are there, but they’re not clean enough for a good surf.

If you’re desperate, the 4ft swell with a 9-second period on the 21st afternoon might offer a few closeouts, but don’t get your hopes up. The best advice? Wait for the forecasts to change – it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty

Read more