The Bubble Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s call it like it is – this forecast is a bit of a bummer for paddle surfing. The swell shows up a few times, but the wind just won’t cooperate. There’s a big stretch of junk conditions right out of the gate.

We’re talkin’ about The Bubble, a serious expert-only reef break that faces the north-northwest. Starting Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th, it’s tiny – waves around 1 to 2 feet from the NNW, but that cross-onshore breeze has it all choppy and bumpy. The wave energy is weak, barely registering 135 (weak energy) on Tuesday morning.

From Thursday the 17th all the way through the end of the month, the swell builds up – 5 to 6 feet from the north, with wave energy climbing into the moderate to strong range (312 to 668). But here’s the kicker: the wind is stuck out of the north and northeast, mostly cross-onshore or onshore, tearing the surface apart. The period stays short to moderate – mostly 7 to 10 seconds – so it’s lumpy and sectiony. Not the kind of waves you paddle out for.

There’s a little window Sunday the 20th morning – a light northeasterly breeze, 2-3 feet of NNW swell with a long 14-second period, and energy at 457 (moderate-strong). That could have held some clean lines, but the report calls it marginal, probably tide-dependent. Monday the 21st morning is similar, but again, not quite there.

The best chance we get is Thursday the 24th morning. Waves around 3 feet from the NNW, a 14-second period, a light offshore breeze from the northeast, and combined energy of 401 (moderate-strong). That’s the cleanest look in the whole two weeks. Even then, it’s only rated marginal, so don’t expect perfection.

By the 29th of September, the swell jumps to over 6 feet from the north, but the period drops to 9 seconds and the wind is back on it. That’s expert-level size, but the chop makes it a real grinder.

Bottom line: for the full 16 days, there’s no true standout. The constant cross-onshore wind ruins the ride. If you’re a kite surfer, the solid swell and steady north wind might be fun. For us surfers, it’s mostly a long stretch of poor conditions. The Bubble is a tricky wave, and this forecast isn’t doing it any favors.

Keep the faith, forecasts can turn around. But for now, it’s a long dry spell.

Rusty.

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